May 16, 2024 • 32 mins
In this conversation, John McLaughlin discusses the current state of the election and the polling numbers for Donald Trump. He highlights that Trump is performing better in the polls now than in previous elections and is leading in the national popular vote. McLaughlin attributes this to Biden's surrender in Afghanistan and the dissatisfaction with his presidency. He also discusses the impact of the Biden indictments on the election and how they have shaped the campaign strategy. McLaughlin mentions that Trump is pulling more support from Biden than from Kennedy, and that Trump's path to 270 electoral votes runs through swing states like North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. The Truth with Lisa Boothe is part of the Clay Travis & Buck Sexton Podcast Network - new episodes debut every Monday & Thursday.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Where does the presidential election stand today? The New York
Times recently out with some battleground surveys, which sure looks
like good news for Donald Trump. They have him up
pretty substantially in some of these Sun Belt states like Arizona, Georgia,
and Nevada, a little bit of a tighter race in
the Rost belt states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. But
(00:22):
what is super interesting is it has Donald Trump up
over twenty percent with the black vote, that would be
the most for any Republican since nineteen sixty four. They
also have him tied with eighteen to twenty nine year
olds in Hispanics. These are groups that Biden got more
than sixty percent of the vote in twenty twenty. So
(00:42):
are those numbers real? Is that possible? We're gonna ask
John McLaughlin with McLoughlin and Associates. He has been advising
Donald Trump and his campaign since at least twenty fifteen.
Speaker 2 (00:54):
He's a long time polster.
Speaker 1 (00:55):
He has worked professionally as a strategic consultant and polster
for over thirty five years. He's also done some international
work for people like Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Nett and
Yahoo so he knows what he's talking about. He's looking
at this stuff every single day, so we're going to
get his take. Where does the election stand today? How
have these indictments shaped the election? And are some of
(01:17):
these numbers we're seeing, you know, from this New York
Times battleground survey, are they real? All of that and
more with John McLoughlin.
Speaker 2 (01:24):
Stay tuned. Well, John, I appreciate you making the time
for the show.
Speaker 1 (01:32):
I've reached out before to you to kind of get
your pulse on where things stand in the country. So
I'm looking forward to bringing that conversation to my audience.
So I appreciate you making the time.
Speaker 3 (01:43):
That's a pleasure. Thank you for the opportunity.
Speaker 2 (01:46):
Absolutely.
Speaker 1 (01:47):
I guess we'll start off kind of you know, big picture,
you know from your estimation, you know you're looking at
polls probably all day long.
Speaker 2 (01:55):
Where where does the election stand today?
Speaker 3 (01:58):
Well, since I worked for President Trump, then advised him
since twelve. First time was twenty eleven when he was
taking a running, then then twenty fifteen when he began running,
and through the twenty sixteen campaign, in the twenty twenty campaign,
and now through this all through last year's priory. Now
we've never seen the kind of poll numbers that Donald
(02:20):
Trump's getting right now. So in twenty sixteen, in twenty twenty,
it was always an electoral vote play that I'm sure
we would lose the national popular vote, but it will
be closed. But we could win in the battleground states
and get an electoral majority. And that's what we did
in twenty sixteen by seventy eight thousand votes. We won
(02:42):
Pennsylvania forty four thousand votes. We won Wisconsin twenty two
thousand votes, in Michigan ten thousand votes. So we were
able to get an electoral majority. And then and it
was a historic winning that you know, here was this
outsider beat the Republican establishment and then beat the Washington
you see, established brand and that was a new historic point.
(03:03):
But the establisher never forgave us. And in twenty twenty
we lost five forty four thousand voats, literally eleven thousand
in Georgia, Arizona, and twenty thousand in was Townsend at
our record one hundred and sixty million voats. So that
was tough. But now, but we were never head in
(03:25):
the popular vote. Lost the popular vote by four points
according to the you know, according to the botalities. But
now ever since Fiden surrendered Afghanistic in August September twenty one,
Trumston leading of the national popular vote. And those aren't
my polls necessarily. In my poll last month I had
Trump about forty nine to five and beating you know,
(03:50):
I had to have Rady switch that would be an
electoral landslight for US. We weren't decisively, and but the
media polls a lot, these media polls had skewed. I mean,
I mean, there's a a there's a Yahoo pull out
today of one thousand, seven hundred and ninety four adults
that has US tied at forty three forty three. But
they've got like thirteen questions in there about uh, the
(04:14):
story Daniel's trial, and are extremely biased where we don't
have a shot. But it's like the way they wrote
the questions they was take Trump Yahoo News and then uh.
And then they have only twenty nine percent voters who
voted in twenty twenty vote for Trump. And you know,
usually my polls I have with like over forty on
because we do like we pull likely voters, we don't
(04:34):
pull adults, we don't bult register all poll people that
tell us they're actually going to vote. That's how try
to be accurate. And we call off a voter database
on you know, we know who we're calling, we know
who we were in biding to take out national online service,
and uh, you know, I mean we we you know
in the poll that we have that that I just
quoted you where Trump's had forty nine to forty five,
(04:56):
there was that that's a plus four demo twenty twenty
vote for Biden. So there's actually four or five percent
that have flipped from voting for Biden that are voting
for Trump now, and there's another four or five percent
that's undecided. So we're in really good shape. And it's
said because it's the country's in bad shape. I mean,
(05:17):
sixty six percent of all voters say countries on the
wrong track. They say the economy is getting worse out
better sixty one to thirty four. You've got negatively impacted
by inflation is eighty six percent of le voters. Forty
eight percent say to the point that there can't afford
basic necessities. And so we're seeing we're seeing that that
(05:39):
rejection of Joe Biden, where he has a fifty six
percent disapproval on air rating. Again, this poll was modeled
after form turning.
Speaker 1 (05:46):
You know, John, you'd mentioned the botch withdrawal from Afghanistan,
and you know, we saw I think he was pulling
at I want to say, a forty nine percent at
the beginning of that, the beginning of August twenty twenty one,
and then we've sort of seen it. His approval numbers,
Joe Biden's just continue to draw. What was it about
(06:07):
the withdrawal that had Americans say, you know what, Nope,
can't support this guy.
Speaker 3 (06:13):
We don't call it a withdrawal. We call it a surrender.
And that's President Trump's phrase that he called it a surrender.
And because that's what he did, I mean he basically
that wasn't a withdrawal. That was that was like a paling.
And they literally surrendered the whole country with hundreds, if
not thousands of Americans and certainly tens of thousands of
uses of friends that shouldn't have been lecked behind. And
(06:36):
he did. He for whatever reasons, he surrendered, and he
costs thirteen verve worings their lives. And the one thing
an American president is not supposed to do is surrender
and he did it, and it was a sign of weakness.
And when you look at the character contrast between the
(06:56):
you know, Donald Trump, who the first thing they say
about him is he straw. And now the first thing
they say about Joe Biden is he's weak. And so
for an American president to be that weak and surrender
a country like that, we've been on the run ever since.
I mean, Iran has been you know, selling their oil
and he doesn't force the oil embargo, and it funded
(07:19):
Hamas and it funds has Bola and Hooti's and Iraan
proxy terrorists to a point where you know, it was
a green light to invade for Russia to invade Ukraine,
and it was and it was without a doubt, it
was a green light for Iran to use their proxy
to attack Israel. And then you have Iran attacking Israel
(07:42):
directly with missiles and and you know that's a country
that's developing a nuclear weapon. So a lot of people
are worried about, you know, it's about what's going on
with Joe Biden, because this is something an American president
should not, should not you know, let happen, And it
wouldn't have happened under Donald Trump. In fact, after Putin
(08:04):
invaded Iran. It was February twenty two. I had to
I was in Hungary doing work for the Prime Minister's reelection,
and I came back and had a meeting with President
Trump and Suzy Wiles and Brian Jack and we were
going through some poll numbers. So President Trump said this
would have never happened if I was president, meaning the
(08:26):
Russian invasion in Ukraine. I said, oh, why was that?
And he said he said, well, when I was president,
I got intelligence and he had you know, Putin had
invaded Ukraine and taken Crimea while Obama was president, and
we got intelligence. They were masking and they were going
to go out to Ukraine again. So I called him
up and I said, if you go out to Ukraine,
I'm got a Bob Muscat. They said, I never had
(08:48):
a problem with you. Four years. Trump's told that story
rus so I can repeat it. But but that was
a sign of strength. And you know, when you think
about Iran. Iran, they sent Solomoni to go take our
big at embassy, you know, the way they took our
tay Rain embassy back from Jimmy Carter was president and
(09:08):
Solomoni was getting you know, she had malicious together and
we're going to take our our embassy. And President Trump
sent in like three thousand troops and he had Solamani killed,
and it's like, you want to you want to challenge America,
there's a price to pay right now. What happens is,
you know, whether it's Twutin or whether it's a ram
(09:29):
or whether it's a Maas, you know you can you
can take Americans hostage, and Biden gives you billions of
dollars eight that's what hamas.
Speaker 2 (09:39):
Yeah, I remember, I think it was. We were listening.
Speaker 1 (09:42):
I was co hosting over the weekend, and during Trump's
speech in New Jersey, he was talking about how his
approach to Israel might not be popular, but you know,
you've got to do the sometimes you have to do
the unpopular things when you're a leader. And I think
that kind of sums up the difference between, you know,
the two where you know, Trump's willing to take a
stand and do what he believes is right and and
(10:03):
Biden is too weak to do that. You know, Democrats
were hoping to take Trump out via law fair with
all these indictments in the four cases, that Donald Trump
is facing. How have these indictments, from what you're saying,
how have they shaped this election?
Speaker 3 (10:19):
Well, it's been the central foundation of the Biden reelection strategy.
And by the way, at one point, President Trump saying,
do the popular things. By the way, what President Trump did,
having America strong and having if you didn't respect us,
at least you feared us. That's a popular position in
(10:39):
this world. So but but going to the Biden indictments,
I mean, Biden being behind in the national popular vote
and losing the President Trump and now we're seeing all
these battlegrounds says that he's losing. Last year was pretty
clear their their campaign strategy was about indictments, and this
(11:00):
year is about convictions. But last year, when you look
at it, the evidence was okay. There. He was burrating
Merrick Garland in twenty twenty two in April twenty two
in the New York Times, saying he should be a
potterist judge. She needs to get on him. Indict Trump.
Next thing, you know, to Arland's hire Jack Smith, the DOJ.
This fellow mclangelo, who was the third person in the
(11:23):
Biden Department of Justice. All of a sudden, the guy
takes a demotion after Cyrus Vance says is not enough
to indict Trump or Bragg. Alvin Bragg says is not
enough to indict Donald Trump. And so this guy Mcalangelo
and the Biden working in the Biden Justice Bar, working
for working for Merrick Garland, he leaves to become an
(11:48):
assistant District attorney in Manhattan precisely to bring not to
fight crime or promoters in jail or quit after illegal immagrom. No,
he's there to Donald Trump and prosecute the case. They
don't ready let Alvin Brad prosecute the case. This guy
Colangel is prosecuting the case and so so. And then
(12:09):
you got Fanny Willis, Fanny Wilson, her boyfriend. What are
they doing going to the White House for meetings with
the for eight hour meetings? Though Wade the prosecutor went
to White House for two eight hour meetings, and Fanny
Willis is going to see Kamala Harris. I mean these indictments,
the four major indictments, who are all orchestrated by the
Biden administration. And guess what the voters see it On
(12:33):
our website, I'm a blocklan online dot com. We posted
the results of our national multipole. And last month, sixty
six percent of Wall voters said politics play to roll
in these indictments. Fifty six percent said Joe Biden played
a roll in these indictments. Fifty four to thirty six.
They say there's a double standard that the Bidens go
free while they prosecuted Trump. Fifty six to thirty five.
(12:55):
All voters say, let the voters decide the election, not
the courts. And fifty three percent to thirty four percent
they say these indictments are just meant to put Donald
Trump in jail, to stop him from being president. So
the majority of Americans see this, and you know last
year told President Trump, the only prime you've committed is
(13:16):
your head in the pulse. And you know this is
a political strategy by Buiden. He's so corrupt, you know,
they make him out of this kind of old guy.
He's not. He may be old technically, but he's he's
really corrupt and he's failed. He's a desper president and
(13:37):
he's afraid of losing to Donald Trump because his family
is really corrupt. And you know, he's doing everything he
can put Donald Trump in jail.
Speaker 1 (13:46):
Yeah, I mean, the biggest way that Joe Biden told
us is that Cornpop was the bad dude.
Speaker 2 (13:52):
He's the bad dude, John.
Speaker 1 (13:53):
We've got more on the presidential election, but first, Since
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mine to support, IFCJ dot org to give. That's one
word support, IFCJ dot org. You look at these New
York Times battleground surveys. They've got Trump up pretty substantially
in the sun Belt states Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, but within
(15:19):
the margin of error in the rost belt states of Michigan, Pennsylvania,
and Wisconsin. Why is he doing better in the sun
Belt states and not better in the roust belt states?
Speaker 2 (15:28):
And what does he need to do to address that?
Speaker 3 (15:31):
By the way, going back to the twenty sixteen campaign,
that was our strategy. It was a horror land campaign
to bring out working class to orders from the sun
Belt in the rust belt states, and that's how we
put Pennsylvania in play. We put Wisconsin and Michigan in flight.
And it was mainly to get working class holders out
who don't didn't vote in twenty twelve. They didn't like
(15:53):
a ball on. They at some point they felt that
Nick Rowney it was to fire them and was from
country blook so Trump in twenty sixteen, we won those states.
We call it precisely because the new voters came into
the to the electorate, people that were like one paycheck
away from disaster. And I've done some service before that
(16:14):
where most of these working class, casual voters who vote
in two thousand and eight twenty ten but then vote
twelve were you know, they're making less than sixty thousand
dollars a year in their household. And they were mainly women,
and they were there was some more diversity than but
that's who we were get this time. It ran the
(16:35):
four or five percent that has switched from Biden twenty
twenty to twenty twenty four, or the quarter of black
quarter Hispanic average ages thirty five and they're really upset
about inflation from all the issues and we're getting back
and that Your question about the rust belt states is there.
(16:55):
They were a little harder to win because they're more competitive.
But nobody had won the states and years for the
Republicans until Donald Trump did, until he was appealing to
them on the issues of trade, taxes, fighting China, et cetera,
redoing the unfair trade deals, and it was a working
class appeal. And when you look at the New York
Times polls, that happens ahead of five out of six
(17:17):
the battleground states. By the way, Wisconsin where they had us.
This the one state where they I think they had
us behind in the New York Times, that one they
even though Wisconsin was a forty nine twenty state. And
when you look at Biden versus Trump, their internals on
(17:39):
the on the poll has only forty two percent Trump
voters and forty seven percent Biden voters. So there may
be a little skew, and we think we're more in
play in that state. So in fact, I tell you
Wisconsin is at that even state. It's it's like and
there's other polls out there was a bit Quinnipiac Paul
had us losing by points there. And when you go
(18:02):
into the internals, they have only twenty five percent Republicans,
and you go back to the twenty twenty exit poles,
we were thirty seven percent. So we're starting to see
polls that are underpolling Republicans again. Like remember in twenty sixteen,
it was a Hillary lock. There was no way that
Trump was going to win. It was a lock for Hillary. Well,
they kept underpolling Republicans tell Joe Biden, not Joe Biden,
(18:24):
Hillary Clinton. Back then it was a Hillary lock, and
we said, no, it's close and we could win, and
we're going to win. And you know, Trump proved us
right by seventy eight thousand votes out of one hundred
and thirty nine million votes. Then in twenty twenty, they
were saying it was going to be a Biden blue
wave and we're like, no, it's going to be close again,
and we will. You know, we can pull this out.
(18:48):
But unfortunately, with drop boxes and sucker box you know,
they basically ballot harvested during COVID and we lost three
states by forty four thousand, but it was all in
those rust Belt and certain Sun Belts states. The Sun
Belt states have now gone against them because there's a
the economy's bed flationis high, plus the borders out of control.
(19:09):
The borders like the top issue that we're seeing that
pops in the polls, and if you live in Arizona, Nevada,
even New Mexico could come and play. By the way,
we've got the Trump campaign released surveys in Minnesota that
we were tied forty to forty with the Kennedy and
nine percent. In Virginia, we're only behind by three forty
(19:31):
to thirty seven percent with Kennedy at eight. And there
was a poll yesterday by my colleague Tony Fabrizio, who
also polls for Donald Trump, did the Superpack and now
he's in the campaign again and they had us down
with Virginia by one point. So so that we're burning
the mat on these electoral states and you know, we've got.
(19:54):
The tough part is we still got we still got
a good amount of time between now and November fifth,
but early voting starts in mid September and a lot
of states and then in October most states are voting.
And you know, when you when you look at it,
we've got you know, as of today, it's like a
hrndred and seventy four days for election day. So but
(20:15):
this is a this is a position we've never.
Speaker 1 (20:16):
Been in for to be no, it's you know, in
these polls also have I guess what I'm trying to
figure out too, is I mean, some of these swings
they have with some of these voter groups are substantial,
and so I'm trying to figure out are is that real?
You know, is this just a Carter era type election
where things are so bad because these polls have Trump
(20:37):
with over twenty percent of the black vote, which would
be the highest for any Republican since nineteen sixty four.
So I mean, that's historic, right, And then they have
him basically tied with eighteen to twenty nine year olds
and with hispan X groups that Biden got more than
sixty percent of the vote in twenty twenty.
Speaker 2 (20:53):
So I mean, is that what you're saying.
Speaker 1 (20:55):
Are those numbers real or are these just people protesting
now and then they're going to come home for Democrats
when it gets closer or sort of what are your
assessment of those groups and where they stand today in
this election?
Speaker 3 (21:09):
We're seeing it in that like with African Americans out
the National Pollar referred to that we put up in April,
we got twenty six percent of the Black boat. We're
winning as bas eight. But again, these are likely voters
and the media polls that you're seeing because we got
eight percent of the black voat in twenty sixteen, we
got twelve percent of the Black voat in twenty twelve.
(21:33):
What you're seeing is that when it goes up to
over twenty percent of a lot of these media polls
for the black vote. It matches Joe Biden's disapproval and
a lot of it. We're getting strong work for African
American men who are middle class, but also women who
care about their schools, and they also fit with the
safety momps. We're getting, you know, women that are concerned
(21:54):
about illegal immigration and crime and Federol and gangs over
to Trump. And it's closed the gender gap that we
lost with and significant close. So my last national poll
are doubt for women and significantly more ahead among among men.
But the h but to your point, it's the African
(22:14):
American it's real now, but it's based on the dissatisfaction
of buying correlates through this job disapproval and and it
ties out with the with the you know, the the
Biden failure on inflation, the Biden failure on crime, the
Biden failure on border drugs, and and then Hispanic voters.
If you came here legally or if you're a Porto
(22:36):
riader Porto regions are American citizens, and unfortunately the treats
like second class citizens by a lot of people. But
they have to deal with the abuse and what's going
on in the communities where you now have all these
You know, you have what fourteen to fifteen million legal
immigrants in the country right now, and they're not just Hispanics.
But if you came here legally, if your first generation
(22:56):
or second generation, when your parents came here illgally, and
you had to wait ten ten years of more to
do it right, and you wanted to be an American citizen,
and you're not here channing death to Israel, death to America.
You're here because you wanted to be an American and
because you did it right. And now people are just
walking across the border that are not our friends, and
(23:19):
they are you know, and some of them are seriously
tied with gangs, illegal immegration. Crime is out of control,
and they're upset. They're really upset by this, and they're
taking it out on the bike. Whether it's a realignment,
like I'm an older polster where I used to work
for Finkelstein where he was one of Reagan polsters, and
we saw a realignment go from eighty to the eighty
(23:41):
four election, where eighty four you had a realignment, but
in eighty you had a rejection to Jimmy Carter and
it was, you know, Reagan. In the polls back then,
Reagan for everyone fairly had one negative. It's kind of
like Trump. He was polarized. He was too right way,
and he was too old. He was going to blow
up the world. And then he had a debate with
Jimmy Carter and he said, there you go again, mister president.
(24:03):
Are you better off four years from now from what
then you were four years ago? And he wanted a Lanslap.
But that wasn't a realignment. That was a rejection of
Jimmy Carter. He turned it into a realign. I think
you're seeing the same thing now with Trump, where you
possibly could have a realignment based on working class voters
(24:24):
and expanding into college educative voters who are concerned about
the standard of living in the United States, concerned about
the security of the United States, and they want to
go back to be some prosperity. And they made out
like Trump's tweets. They may not like his rally speeches,
so you know what, they're like policies, and they want
to go back to a time where the real wages
(24:45):
are going up prices. You know, they can handle it
at the food store at datasen they don't have to
worry about the you know, if they've got kids or
family in the military, they don't have to wear them
going out to someplace where they're going to get shot at,
you know, and they won't have it. Comander achievement doesn't
back them up.
Speaker 2 (25:04):
So you know, Democrat Democrats are going to try to.
Speaker 1 (25:10):
Make the selection about you know, we've heard it from
Joe Biden, your threats to democracy, you know, abortion, to
try to wed over women. Will those distraction tactics work?
Will will that be effective?
Speaker 3 (25:24):
You know, it's it's it's what's interesting about the abortion
argument is they're they're they're attacking us for and it's
trying to say it's a total ban. No, it's up
to each state. And that's what Donald Trump was consistent.
He said he's pro life for Reagan, with the exceptions
he was he did appoint federal judges who, you know,
you can see what the liberal courts that don't now
transgender issues and stuffed where if you have some sane juris,
(25:47):
parents are still in control of their children and uh,
not the state, not the government. But with abortion, it's
up to the states to decide, and most states haven't
changed the laws. I mean, some states have gotten more
you know where they've got more pro life, uh, but uh,
you know that's according to that state, and and the
voters of that state are comfortable with other states they've
(26:09):
had referendums where you know, they've been more more uh
uh more liberal than the legislature. But that's that's where
most people are right now. They would like their states
to decide and not not have a federal national policy.
And Joe Biden is the extremist in this when he
I mean, they they literally want to have abortion up
(26:30):
to the ninth month. I mean, you know this, you
wonder about them where they you know, when a could
be born and then they don't give it basic care. Uh.
You know, it's just it's just you know, I mean,
it's just appalling that they that they that's what they're campaigning.
I mean when when when Joe Biden talks about freedom,
(26:51):
but you know, it's not really free. If a baby's
boy and all of a sudden, you want to you want.
Speaker 2 (26:55):
To kill that bid quick break.
Speaker 1 (26:56):
More on the presidential election on the other side, is
it fair to say that Kennedy. I mean, it sounds
like from the conversation we've had so far, Kennedy's pooling
more from Biden than he is from Trump.
Speaker 3 (27:10):
Yes, and because after the poll that I had where
Trump was up four, we had in the same poll
we had Trump at thirty eight, uh, Biden at thirty six,
and then Kennedy would impress for the leaners, and then
we had Kennedy at tent and it looked like Biden
picked up a couple of points from Kennedy, probably on
the abortion issue. But again that was April. After that
(27:32):
we had a poll out from CNN about normal lamb,
normal lamb, you know, getting phone calls for President Trump
was wrong with the c and M Paul. This one
had Trump up six and if Kennedy was in it,
we were up nine. And uh, there was one out
for Harvard Harris by Mark Penn who was Hillary Clinton's bolster.
At Trump up four over Biden in the two way race,
(27:54):
but with Kennedy in it, we went up seven. So
so these flight polling. And by the way, Joe Biden
today he said he wants to debate Trump make my
day even though he doesn't want Trump that way.
Speaker 2 (28:06):
I saw. I wonder how many cuts it took to
get that right right.
Speaker 3 (28:10):
The other well, it's all they're going to have when
you get into the details. They want to be able
to cut our mic. So often they don't want to
have an audience, so they don't want any witnesses. But
but what's relevant about that is they don't want Kennedy
that tells you everything you need to know. And you know,
I mean you see the polls in New York State
and New Jersey recently where in April you had an
(28:32):
Emerson Pole where Trump in New Jersey before his wild
Wood you know, uh, his wild would rally of one
hundred thousand people driving down to the Garden State. It
was bigger than a bon jovi or who Springsteam concert
had one hundred thousand people a wild Wood, New Jersey
to go see Donald Trump speak for an hour and
a half. And and before that, the Emerson pole had
(28:57):
us trailing by five points forty four thirty nine and
he getting rusted eight points. And then in New York
in April, you had a Siena Pole, that Santa College
Pole that at Trump trailing even though we lost the
state sixty one thirty eight, we were we were trailing
forty seven thirty seven so we're within tent and they
didn't ask Kennedy in a three way ballot. So something's
(29:19):
going on in New York, New Jersey where people probably
get most of the news covered about the about the trial,
the phony trial, and the Biden trials. And also, you know,
crime is out of control of New York. It's just
it's I mean, Alvin Bragg is unbelievable. They let people
go that is slashing and end up killing cops, and
they let cop killers go, and they're busy wasting all
(29:40):
their time and money him and with his James Chasing
ran Donald Trump. But New York, you know, a mess.
It's just unbelievable.
Speaker 1 (29:49):
Before we go, what does Donald Trump's path to two
seventy look like? Where does that run through?
Speaker 3 (29:55):
Well, runs through the states. You mentioned that there's seven
swing states that that everybody he agrees upon that we've
got to win North Carolina again and then we have
to have the five. You correctly pointed out that there's Arizona,
there's Georgia. By the way, Georgia since they straightened, since
they got rid of the ballot harvesting with the drop boxes,
(30:16):
and they're now require the late speaker Ralston was one
of my clients in twenty one. We required a voter
ID for absentees in for in person voting, and uh
so they've secured that. We're heading the polls in Georgia,
we're hitting the polls in Arizona, and a state that
wasn't in play, Nevada, we're now headed and uh so
(30:40):
that's really good. And then the three then the three
rest belt states that everybody's focused on that Biden's boring
tens of millions of dollars, and to try to win Pennsylvania, Michigan,
and Wisconsin. If Biden doesn't win, I have sort of
analysis that if Biden doesn't win one of those three Pennsylvania,
Michigan and Wisconsin, he can't win. So yeah, I needs
to win all three. If he loses one of them,
he's dull. So you know, we might be expanding the map.
(31:04):
It looks like to Minnesota, Virginia, maybe New Jersey, maybe
New York. We have the rally in the Bronx and
uh you know it's uh, it's right now. It's it's
good for us because Biden's failing and you know years ago. No,
it's actually February twenty twenty one after he left office,
and President Trump and I went through some pollingd numbers.
(31:26):
They said, yeah, two Thursday of publicans want you to
run again. And this was during impeachment and he and
he says, he said to me, you know, really, why
would they want that? I said, they know Biden's going
to fail. When Biden fails, would be like Jimmy Carter,
and there'll be buyers from more so than they want
you to be back back in the president. They work
with policies, do you know Biden policies, And you know
(31:50):
that's what's happened, except Biden has failed far worse than
Jimmy Carter. Jimmy Carr at least was honest too, he
wasn't corrupt. But the uh, you're seeing a buyer's remorse
where people like, we shouldn't a voter for this Joe Biden.
We're going to vote. We're going to vote for Donald.
Speaker 1 (32:06):
Troll and let's pray that they do. John McLoughlin, I
really appreciate you making the time. This has been super interesting,
So thank you well.
Speaker 3 (32:16):
Lisa, thank you for your analysis, and thank thank you
for the opportunity, and I will keep listening and watching well.
Speaker 1 (32:22):
We'd love to have you back as we continue to
get closer to the elections. So appreciate what you do
and appreciate you making the time.
Speaker 3 (32:30):
Thank you.
Speaker 1 (32:31):
That was John McLoughlin, long time polster. Really appreciate him
making the time. We're going to try to bring you
more of these types of interviews just so that you
know we're paying attention and we're getting the inside scoop
heading into the election. Appreciate you guys at home for
listening every Monday and Thursday, but you've can listen throughout
the week. Don't think John Cassio and my producer for
putting the show together.
Speaker 2 (32:48):
Until next time.
Where does the presidential election stand today? The New York
Times recently out with some battleground surveys, which sure looks
like good news for Donald Trump. They have him up
pretty substantially in some of these Sun Belt states like Arizona, Georgia,
and Nevada, a little bit of a tighter race in
the Rost belt states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. But
(00:22):
what is super interesting is it has Donald Trump up
over twenty percent with the black vote, that would be
the most for any Republican since nineteen sixty four. They
also have him tied with eighteen to twenty nine year
olds in Hispanics. These are groups that Biden got more
than sixty percent of the vote in twenty twenty. So
(00:42):
are those numbers real? Is that possible? We're gonna ask
John McLaughlin with McLoughlin and Associates. He has been advising
Donald Trump and his campaign since at least twenty fifteen.
Speaker 2 (00:54):
He's a long time polster.
Speaker 1 (00:55):
He has worked professionally as a strategic consultant and polster
for over thirty five years. He's also done some international
work for people like Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Nett and
Yahoo so he knows what he's talking about. He's looking
at this stuff every single day, so we're going to
get his take. Where does the election stand today? How
have these indictments shaped the election? And are some of
(01:17):
these numbers we're seeing, you know, from this New York
Times battleground survey, are they real? All of that and
more with John McLoughlin.
Speaker 2 (01:24):
Stay tuned. Well, John, I appreciate you making the time
for the show.
Speaker 1 (01:32):
I've reached out before to you to kind of get
your pulse on where things stand in the country. So
I'm looking forward to bringing that conversation to my audience.
So I appreciate you making the time.
Speaker 3 (01:43):
That's a pleasure. Thank you for the opportunity.
Speaker 2 (01:46):
Absolutely.
Speaker 1 (01:47):
I guess we'll start off kind of you know, big picture,
you know from your estimation, you know you're looking at
polls probably all day long.
Speaker 2 (01:55):
Where where does the election stand today?
Speaker 3 (01:58):
Well, since I worked for President Trump, then advised him
since twelve. First time was twenty eleven when he was
taking a running, then then twenty fifteen when he began running,
and through the twenty sixteen campaign, in the twenty twenty campaign,
and now through this all through last year's priory. Now
we've never seen the kind of poll numbers that Donald
(02:20):
Trump's getting right now. So in twenty sixteen, in twenty twenty,
it was always an electoral vote play that I'm sure
we would lose the national popular vote, but it will
be closed. But we could win in the battleground states
and get an electoral majority. And that's what we did
in twenty sixteen by seventy eight thousand votes. We won
(02:42):
Pennsylvania forty four thousand votes. We won Wisconsin twenty two
thousand votes, in Michigan ten thousand votes. So we were
able to get an electoral majority. And then and it
was a historic winning that you know, here was this
outsider beat the Republican establishment and then beat the Washington
you see, established brand and that was a new historic point.
(03:03):
But the establisher never forgave us. And in twenty twenty
we lost five forty four thousand voats, literally eleven thousand
in Georgia, Arizona, and twenty thousand in was Townsend at
our record one hundred and sixty million voats. So that
was tough. But now, but we were never head in
(03:25):
the popular vote. Lost the popular vote by four points
according to the you know, according to the botalities. But
now ever since Fiden surrendered Afghanistic in August September twenty one,
Trumston leading of the national popular vote. And those aren't
my polls necessarily. In my poll last month I had
Trump about forty nine to five and beating you know,
(03:50):
I had to have Rady switch that would be an
electoral landslight for US. We weren't decisively, and but the
media polls a lot, these media polls had skewed. I mean,
I mean, there's a a there's a Yahoo pull out
today of one thousand, seven hundred and ninety four adults
that has US tied at forty three forty three. But
they've got like thirteen questions in there about uh, the
(04:14):
story Daniel's trial, and are extremely biased where we don't
have a shot. But it's like the way they wrote
the questions they was take Trump Yahoo News and then uh.
And then they have only twenty nine percent voters who
voted in twenty twenty vote for Trump. And you know,
usually my polls I have with like over forty on
because we do like we pull likely voters, we don't
(04:34):
pull adults, we don't bult register all poll people that
tell us they're actually going to vote. That's how try
to be accurate. And we call off a voter database
on you know, we know who we're calling, we know
who we were in biding to take out national online service,
and uh, you know, I mean we we you know
in the poll that we have that that I just
quoted you where Trump's had forty nine to forty five,
(04:56):
there was that that's a plus four demo twenty twenty
vote for Biden. So there's actually four or five percent
that have flipped from voting for Biden that are voting
for Trump now, and there's another four or five percent
that's undecided. So we're in really good shape. And it's
said because it's the country's in bad shape. I mean,
(05:17):
sixty six percent of all voters say countries on the
wrong track. They say the economy is getting worse out
better sixty one to thirty four. You've got negatively impacted
by inflation is eighty six percent of le voters. Forty
eight percent say to the point that there can't afford
basic necessities. And so we're seeing we're seeing that that
(05:39):
rejection of Joe Biden, where he has a fifty six
percent disapproval on air rating. Again, this poll was modeled
after form turning.
Speaker 1 (05:46):
You know, John, you'd mentioned the botch withdrawal from Afghanistan,
and you know, we saw I think he was pulling
at I want to say, a forty nine percent at
the beginning of that, the beginning of August twenty twenty one,
and then we've sort of seen it. His approval numbers,
Joe Biden's just continue to draw. What was it about
(06:07):
the withdrawal that had Americans say, you know what, Nope,
can't support this guy.
Speaker 3 (06:13):
We don't call it a withdrawal. We call it a surrender.
And that's President Trump's phrase that he called it a surrender.
And because that's what he did, I mean he basically
that wasn't a withdrawal. That was that was like a paling.
And they literally surrendered the whole country with hundreds, if
not thousands of Americans and certainly tens of thousands of
uses of friends that shouldn't have been lecked behind. And
(06:36):
he did. He for whatever reasons, he surrendered, and he
costs thirteen verve worings their lives. And the one thing
an American president is not supposed to do is surrender
and he did it, and it was a sign of weakness.
And when you look at the character contrast between the
(06:56):
you know, Donald Trump, who the first thing they say
about him is he straw. And now the first thing
they say about Joe Biden is he's weak. And so
for an American president to be that weak and surrender
a country like that, we've been on the run ever since.
I mean, Iran has been you know, selling their oil
and he doesn't force the oil embargo, and it funded
(07:19):
Hamas and it funds has Bola and Hooti's and Iraan
proxy terrorists to a point where you know, it was
a green light to invade for Russia to invade Ukraine,
and it was and it was without a doubt, it
was a green light for Iran to use their proxy
to attack Israel. And then you have Iran attacking Israel
(07:42):
directly with missiles and and you know that's a country
that's developing a nuclear weapon. So a lot of people
are worried about, you know, it's about what's going on
with Joe Biden, because this is something an American president
should not, should not you know, let happen, And it
wouldn't have happened under Donald Trump. In fact, after Putin
(08:04):
invaded Iran. It was February twenty two. I had to
I was in Hungary doing work for the Prime Minister's reelection,
and I came back and had a meeting with President
Trump and Suzy Wiles and Brian Jack and we were
going through some poll numbers. So President Trump said this
would have never happened if I was president, meaning the
(08:26):
Russian invasion in Ukraine. I said, oh, why was that?
And he said he said, well, when I was president,
I got intelligence and he had you know, Putin had
invaded Ukraine and taken Crimea while Obama was president, and
we got intelligence. They were masking and they were going
to go out to Ukraine again. So I called him
up and I said, if you go out to Ukraine,
I'm got a Bob Muscat. They said, I never had
(08:48):
a problem with you. Four years. Trump's told that story
rus so I can repeat it. But but that was
a sign of strength. And you know, when you think
about Iran. Iran, they sent Solomoni to go take our
big at embassy, you know, the way they took our
tay Rain embassy back from Jimmy Carter was president and
(09:08):
Solomoni was getting you know, she had malicious together and
we're going to take our our embassy. And President Trump
sent in like three thousand troops and he had Solamani killed,
and it's like, you want to you want to challenge America,
there's a price to pay right now. What happens is,
you know, whether it's Twutin or whether it's a ram
(09:29):
or whether it's a Maas, you know you can you
can take Americans hostage, and Biden gives you billions of
dollars eight that's what hamas.
Speaker 2 (09:39):
Yeah, I remember, I think it was. We were listening.
Speaker 1 (09:42):
I was co hosting over the weekend, and during Trump's
speech in New Jersey, he was talking about how his
approach to Israel might not be popular, but you know,
you've got to do the sometimes you have to do
the unpopular things when you're a leader. And I think
that kind of sums up the difference between, you know,
the two where you know, Trump's willing to take a
stand and do what he believes is right and and
(10:03):
Biden is too weak to do that. You know, Democrats
were hoping to take Trump out via law fair with
all these indictments in the four cases, that Donald Trump
is facing. How have these indictments, from what you're saying,
how have they shaped this election?
Speaker 3 (10:19):
Well, it's been the central foundation of the Biden reelection strategy.
And by the way, at one point, President Trump saying,
do the popular things. By the way, what President Trump did,
having America strong and having if you didn't respect us,
at least you feared us. That's a popular position in
(10:39):
this world. So but but going to the Biden indictments,
I mean, Biden being behind in the national popular vote
and losing the President Trump and now we're seeing all
these battlegrounds says that he's losing. Last year was pretty
clear their their campaign strategy was about indictments, and this
(11:00):
year is about convictions. But last year, when you look
at it, the evidence was okay. There. He was burrating
Merrick Garland in twenty twenty two in April twenty two
in the New York Times, saying he should be a
potterist judge. She needs to get on him. Indict Trump.
Next thing, you know, to Arland's hire Jack Smith, the DOJ.
This fellow mclangelo, who was the third person in the
(11:23):
Biden Department of Justice. All of a sudden, the guy
takes a demotion after Cyrus Vance says is not enough
to indict Trump or Bragg. Alvin Bragg says is not
enough to indict Donald Trump. And so this guy Mcalangelo
and the Biden working in the Biden Justice Bar, working
for working for Merrick Garland, he leaves to become an
(11:48):
assistant District attorney in Manhattan precisely to bring not to
fight crime or promoters in jail or quit after illegal immagrom. No,
he's there to Donald Trump and prosecute the case. They
don't ready let Alvin Brad prosecute the case. This guy
Colangel is prosecuting the case and so so. And then
(12:09):
you got Fanny Willis, Fanny Wilson, her boyfriend. What are
they doing going to the White House for meetings with
the for eight hour meetings? Though Wade the prosecutor went
to White House for two eight hour meetings, and Fanny
Willis is going to see Kamala Harris. I mean these indictments,
the four major indictments, who are all orchestrated by the
Biden administration. And guess what the voters see it On
(12:33):
our website, I'm a blocklan online dot com. We posted
the results of our national multipole. And last month, sixty
six percent of Wall voters said politics play to roll
in these indictments. Fifty six percent said Joe Biden played
a roll in these indictments. Fifty four to thirty six.
They say there's a double standard that the Bidens go
free while they prosecuted Trump. Fifty six to thirty five.
(12:55):
All voters say, let the voters decide the election, not
the courts. And fifty three percent to thirty four percent
they say these indictments are just meant to put Donald
Trump in jail, to stop him from being president. So
the majority of Americans see this, and you know last
year told President Trump, the only prime you've committed is
(13:16):
your head in the pulse. And you know this is
a political strategy by Buiden. He's so corrupt, you know,
they make him out of this kind of old guy.
He's not. He may be old technically, but he's he's
really corrupt and he's failed. He's a desper president and
(13:37):
he's afraid of losing to Donald Trump because his family
is really corrupt. And you know, he's doing everything he
can put Donald Trump in jail.
Speaker 1 (13:46):
Yeah, I mean, the biggest way that Joe Biden told
us is that Cornpop was the bad dude.
Speaker 2 (13:52):
He's the bad dude, John.
Speaker 1 (13:53):
We've got more on the presidential election, but first, Since
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of terror every day. The International Fellowship of Christians and
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eight eight IFCJ or four three two or goal of
mine to support, IFCJ dot org to give. That's one
word support, IFCJ dot org. You look at these New
York Times battleground surveys. They've got Trump up pretty substantially
in the sun Belt states Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, but within
(15:19):
the margin of error in the rost belt states of Michigan, Pennsylvania,
and Wisconsin. Why is he doing better in the sun
Belt states and not better in the roust belt states?
Speaker 2 (15:28):
And what does he need to do to address that?
Speaker 3 (15:31):
By the way, going back to the twenty sixteen campaign,
that was our strategy. It was a horror land campaign
to bring out working class to orders from the sun
Belt in the rust belt states, and that's how we
put Pennsylvania in play. We put Wisconsin and Michigan in flight.
And it was mainly to get working class holders out
who don't didn't vote in twenty twelve. They didn't like
(15:53):
a ball on. They at some point they felt that
Nick Rowney it was to fire them and was from
country blook so Trump in twenty sixteen, we won those states.
We call it precisely because the new voters came into
the to the electorate, people that were like one paycheck
away from disaster. And I've done some service before that
(16:14):
where most of these working class, casual voters who vote
in two thousand and eight twenty ten but then vote
twelve were you know, they're making less than sixty thousand
dollars a year in their household. And they were mainly women,
and they were there was some more diversity than but
that's who we were get this time. It ran the
(16:35):
four or five percent that has switched from Biden twenty
twenty to twenty twenty four, or the quarter of black
quarter Hispanic average ages thirty five and they're really upset
about inflation from all the issues and we're getting back
and that Your question about the rust belt states is there.
(16:55):
They were a little harder to win because they're more competitive.
But nobody had won the states and years for the
Republicans until Donald Trump did, until he was appealing to
them on the issues of trade, taxes, fighting China, et cetera,
redoing the unfair trade deals, and it was a working
class appeal. And when you look at the New York
Times polls, that happens ahead of five out of six
(17:17):
the battleground states. By the way, Wisconsin where they had us.
This the one state where they I think they had
us behind in the New York Times, that one they
even though Wisconsin was a forty nine twenty state. And
when you look at Biden versus Trump, their internals on
(17:39):
the on the poll has only forty two percent Trump
voters and forty seven percent Biden voters. So there may
be a little skew, and we think we're more in
play in that state. So in fact, I tell you
Wisconsin is at that even state. It's it's like and
there's other polls out there was a bit Quinnipiac Paul
had us losing by points there. And when you go
(18:02):
into the internals, they have only twenty five percent Republicans,
and you go back to the twenty twenty exit poles,
we were thirty seven percent. So we're starting to see
polls that are underpolling Republicans again. Like remember in twenty sixteen,
it was a Hillary lock. There was no way that
Trump was going to win. It was a lock for Hillary. Well,
they kept underpolling Republicans tell Joe Biden, not Joe Biden,
(18:24):
Hillary Clinton. Back then it was a Hillary lock, and
we said, no, it's close and we could win, and
we're going to win. And you know, Trump proved us
right by seventy eight thousand votes out of one hundred
and thirty nine million votes. Then in twenty twenty, they
were saying it was going to be a Biden blue
wave and we're like, no, it's going to be close again,
and we will. You know, we can pull this out.
(18:48):
But unfortunately, with drop boxes and sucker box you know,
they basically ballot harvested during COVID and we lost three
states by forty four thousand, but it was all in
those rust Belt and certain Sun Belts states. The Sun
Belt states have now gone against them because there's a
the economy's bed flationis high, plus the borders out of control.
(19:09):
The borders like the top issue that we're seeing that
pops in the polls, and if you live in Arizona, Nevada,
even New Mexico could come and play. By the way,
we've got the Trump campaign released surveys in Minnesota that
we were tied forty to forty with the Kennedy and
nine percent. In Virginia, we're only behind by three forty
(19:31):
to thirty seven percent with Kennedy at eight. And there
was a poll yesterday by my colleague Tony Fabrizio, who
also polls for Donald Trump, did the Superpack and now
he's in the campaign again and they had us down
with Virginia by one point. So so that we're burning
the mat on these electoral states and you know, we've got.
(19:54):
The tough part is we still got we still got
a good amount of time between now and November fifth,
but early voting starts in mid September and a lot
of states and then in October most states are voting.
And you know, when you when you look at it,
we've got you know, as of today, it's like a
hrndred and seventy four days for election day. So but
(20:15):
this is a this is a position we've never.
Speaker 1 (20:16):
Been in for to be no, it's you know, in
these polls also have I guess what I'm trying to
figure out too, is I mean, some of these swings
they have with some of these voter groups are substantial,
and so I'm trying to figure out are is that real?
You know, is this just a Carter era type election
where things are so bad because these polls have Trump
(20:37):
with over twenty percent of the black vote, which would
be the highest for any Republican since nineteen sixty four.
So I mean, that's historic, right, And then they have
him basically tied with eighteen to twenty nine year olds
and with hispan X groups that Biden got more than
sixty percent of the vote in twenty twenty.
Speaker 2 (20:53):
So I mean, is that what you're saying.
Speaker 1 (20:55):
Are those numbers real or are these just people protesting
now and then they're going to come home for Democrats
when it gets closer or sort of what are your
assessment of those groups and where they stand today in
this election?
Speaker 3 (21:09):
We're seeing it in that like with African Americans out
the National Pollar referred to that we put up in April,
we got twenty six percent of the Black boat. We're
winning as bas eight. But again, these are likely voters
and the media polls that you're seeing because we got
eight percent of the black voat in twenty sixteen, we
got twelve percent of the Black voat in twenty twelve.
(21:33):
What you're seeing is that when it goes up to
over twenty percent of a lot of these media polls
for the black vote. It matches Joe Biden's disapproval and
a lot of it. We're getting strong work for African
American men who are middle class, but also women who
care about their schools, and they also fit with the
safety momps. We're getting, you know, women that are concerned
(21:54):
about illegal immigration and crime and Federol and gangs over
to Trump. And it's closed the gender gap that we
lost with and significant close. So my last national poll
are doubt for women and significantly more ahead among among men.
But the h but to your point, it's the African
(22:14):
American it's real now, but it's based on the dissatisfaction
of buying correlates through this job disapproval and and it
ties out with the with the you know, the the
Biden failure on inflation, the Biden failure on crime, the
Biden failure on border drugs, and and then Hispanic voters.
If you came here legally or if you're a Porto
(22:36):
riader Porto regions are American citizens, and unfortunately the treats
like second class citizens by a lot of people. But
they have to deal with the abuse and what's going
on in the communities where you now have all these
You know, you have what fourteen to fifteen million legal
immigrants in the country right now, and they're not just Hispanics.
But if you came here legally, if your first generation
(22:56):
or second generation, when your parents came here illgally, and
you had to wait ten ten years of more to
do it right, and you wanted to be an American citizen,
and you're not here channing death to Israel, death to America.
You're here because you wanted to be an American and
because you did it right. And now people are just
walking across the border that are not our friends, and
(23:19):
they are you know, and some of them are seriously
tied with gangs, illegal immegration. Crime is out of control,
and they're upset. They're really upset by this, and they're
taking it out on the bike. Whether it's a realignment,
like I'm an older polster where I used to work
for Finkelstein where he was one of Reagan polsters, and
we saw a realignment go from eighty to the eighty
(23:41):
four election, where eighty four you had a realignment, but
in eighty you had a rejection to Jimmy Carter and
it was, you know, Reagan. In the polls back then,
Reagan for everyone fairly had one negative. It's kind of
like Trump. He was polarized. He was too right way,
and he was too old. He was going to blow
up the world. And then he had a debate with
Jimmy Carter and he said, there you go again, mister president.
(24:03):
Are you better off four years from now from what
then you were four years ago? And he wanted a Lanslap.
But that wasn't a realignment. That was a rejection of
Jimmy Carter. He turned it into a realign. I think
you're seeing the same thing now with Trump, where you
possibly could have a realignment based on working class voters
(24:24):
and expanding into college educative voters who are concerned about
the standard of living in the United States, concerned about
the security of the United States, and they want to
go back to be some prosperity. And they made out
like Trump's tweets. They may not like his rally speeches,
so you know what, they're like policies, and they want
to go back to a time where the real wages
(24:45):
are going up prices. You know, they can handle it
at the food store at datasen they don't have to
worry about the you know, if they've got kids or
family in the military, they don't have to wear them
going out to someplace where they're going to get shot at,
you know, and they won't have it. Comander achievement doesn't
back them up.
Speaker 2 (25:04):
So you know, Democrat Democrats are going to try to.
Speaker 1 (25:10):
Make the selection about you know, we've heard it from
Joe Biden, your threats to democracy, you know, abortion, to
try to wed over women. Will those distraction tactics work?
Will will that be effective?
Speaker 3 (25:24):
You know, it's it's it's what's interesting about the abortion
argument is they're they're they're attacking us for and it's
trying to say it's a total ban. No, it's up
to each state. And that's what Donald Trump was consistent.
He said he's pro life for Reagan, with the exceptions
he was he did appoint federal judges who, you know,
you can see what the liberal courts that don't now
transgender issues and stuffed where if you have some sane juris,
(25:47):
parents are still in control of their children and uh,
not the state, not the government. But with abortion, it's
up to the states to decide, and most states haven't
changed the laws. I mean, some states have gotten more
you know where they've got more pro life, uh, but uh,
you know that's according to that state, and and the
voters of that state are comfortable with other states they've
(26:09):
had referendums where you know, they've been more more uh
uh more liberal than the legislature. But that's that's where
most people are right now. They would like their states
to decide and not not have a federal national policy.
And Joe Biden is the extremist in this when he
I mean, they they literally want to have abortion up
(26:30):
to the ninth month. I mean, you know this, you
wonder about them where they you know, when a could
be born and then they don't give it basic care. Uh.
You know, it's just it's just you know, I mean,
it's just appalling that they that they that's what they're campaigning.
I mean when when when Joe Biden talks about freedom,
(26:51):
but you know, it's not really free. If a baby's
boy and all of a sudden, you want to you want.
Speaker 2 (26:55):
To kill that bid quick break.
Speaker 1 (26:56):
More on the presidential election on the other side, is
it fair to say that Kennedy. I mean, it sounds
like from the conversation we've had so far, Kennedy's pooling
more from Biden than he is from Trump.
Speaker 3 (27:10):
Yes, and because after the poll that I had where
Trump was up four, we had in the same poll
we had Trump at thirty eight, uh, Biden at thirty six,
and then Kennedy would impress for the leaners, and then
we had Kennedy at tent and it looked like Biden
picked up a couple of points from Kennedy, probably on
the abortion issue. But again that was April. After that
(27:32):
we had a poll out from CNN about normal lamb,
normal lamb, you know, getting phone calls for President Trump
was wrong with the c and M Paul. This one
had Trump up six and if Kennedy was in it,
we were up nine. And uh, there was one out
for Harvard Harris by Mark Penn who was Hillary Clinton's bolster.
At Trump up four over Biden in the two way race,
(27:54):
but with Kennedy in it, we went up seven. So
so these flight polling. And by the way, Joe Biden
today he said he wants to debate Trump make my
day even though he doesn't want Trump that way.
Speaker 2 (28:06):
I saw. I wonder how many cuts it took to
get that right right.
Speaker 3 (28:10):
The other well, it's all they're going to have when
you get into the details. They want to be able
to cut our mic. So often they don't want to
have an audience, so they don't want any witnesses. But
but what's relevant about that is they don't want Kennedy
that tells you everything you need to know. And you know,
I mean you see the polls in New York State
and New Jersey recently where in April you had an
(28:32):
Emerson Pole where Trump in New Jersey before his wild
Wood you know, uh, his wild would rally of one
hundred thousand people driving down to the Garden State. It
was bigger than a bon jovi or who Springsteam concert
had one hundred thousand people a wild Wood, New Jersey
to go see Donald Trump speak for an hour and
a half. And and before that, the Emerson pole had
(28:57):
us trailing by five points forty four thirty nine and
he getting rusted eight points. And then in New York
in April, you had a Siena Pole, that Santa College
Pole that at Trump trailing even though we lost the
state sixty one thirty eight, we were we were trailing
forty seven thirty seven so we're within tent and they
didn't ask Kennedy in a three way ballot. So something's
(29:19):
going on in New York, New Jersey where people probably
get most of the news covered about the about the trial,
the phony trial, and the Biden trials. And also, you know,
crime is out of control of New York. It's just
it's I mean, Alvin Bragg is unbelievable. They let people
go that is slashing and end up killing cops, and
they let cop killers go, and they're busy wasting all
(29:40):
their time and money him and with his James Chasing
ran Donald Trump. But New York, you know, a mess.
It's just unbelievable.
Speaker 1 (29:49):
Before we go, what does Donald Trump's path to two
seventy look like? Where does that run through?
Speaker 3 (29:55):
Well, runs through the states. You mentioned that there's seven
swing states that that everybody he agrees upon that we've
got to win North Carolina again and then we have
to have the five. You correctly pointed out that there's Arizona,
there's Georgia. By the way, Georgia since they straightened, since
they got rid of the ballot harvesting with the drop boxes,
(30:16):
and they're now require the late speaker Ralston was one
of my clients in twenty one. We required a voter
ID for absentees in for in person voting, and uh
so they've secured that. We're heading the polls in Georgia,
we're hitting the polls in Arizona, and a state that
wasn't in play, Nevada, we're now headed and uh so
(30:40):
that's really good. And then the three then the three
rest belt states that everybody's focused on that Biden's boring
tens of millions of dollars, and to try to win Pennsylvania, Michigan,
and Wisconsin. If Biden doesn't win, I have sort of
analysis that if Biden doesn't win one of those three Pennsylvania,
Michigan and Wisconsin, he can't win. So yeah, I needs
to win all three. If he loses one of them,
he's dull. So you know, we might be expanding the map.
(31:04):
It looks like to Minnesota, Virginia, maybe New Jersey, maybe
New York. We have the rally in the Bronx and
uh you know it's uh, it's right now. It's it's
good for us because Biden's failing and you know years ago. No,
it's actually February twenty twenty one after he left office,
and President Trump and I went through some pollingd numbers.
(31:26):
They said, yeah, two Thursday of publicans want you to
run again. And this was during impeachment and he and
he says, he said to me, you know, really, why
would they want that? I said, they know Biden's going
to fail. When Biden fails, would be like Jimmy Carter,
and there'll be buyers from more so than they want
you to be back back in the president. They work
with policies, do you know Biden policies, And you know
(31:50):
that's what's happened, except Biden has failed far worse than
Jimmy Carter. Jimmy Carr at least was honest too, he
wasn't corrupt. But the uh, you're seeing a buyer's remorse
where people like, we shouldn't a voter for this Joe Biden.
We're going to vote. We're going to vote for Donald.
Speaker 1 (32:06):
Troll and let's pray that they do. John McLoughlin, I
really appreciate you making the time. This has been super interesting,
So thank you well.
Speaker 3 (32:16):
Lisa, thank you for your analysis, and thank thank you
for the opportunity, and I will keep listening and watching well.
Speaker 1 (32:22):
We'd love to have you back as we continue to
get closer to the elections. So appreciate what you do
and appreciate you making the time.
Speaker 3 (32:30):
Thank you.
Speaker 1 (32:31):
That was John McLoughlin, long time polster. Really appreciate him
making the time. We're going to try to bring you
more of these types of interviews just so that you
know we're paying attention and we're getting the inside scoop
heading into the election. Appreciate you guys at home for
listening every Monday and Thursday, but you've can listen throughout
the week. Don't think John Cassio and my producer for
putting the show together.
Speaker 2 (32:48):
Until next time.
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