Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Go vote, Go vote for Donald Trump. This is a
man who has taken a bullet for you in this country.
This is a man who's been persecuted.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
They've tried to.
Speaker 1 (00:09):
Throw him in jail on multiple occasions. They've tried to
bankrupt him. They've investigated him, they've slandered him, they've defamed him.
They've gone after his family, they've gone after his friends,
they've gone after the people who have worked for him.
All you have to do is go and vote. That
man's been through everything. All you have to do is
go vote. It's simple, right now. What have Democrats called
(00:30):
us this election cycle? What have they called Trump supporters
this election cycle? We've been called fascist, We've been called Nazis.
We've been called garbage, anti women, anti American. That the
list goes on. In twenty sixteen, we were called the
basket of deplorables and irredeemable. It's that old adage of
when someone shows you who they are, believe them. At
this point, why wouldn't you believe that the Democrat Party
(00:52):
hates you? They've told us as much. That's not being hyperbolic,
that's just the truth they've told us. Why would you
want a party and a group of people who hate
you to have power. And that's really what this is.
To the Democrats, It's about power. They're drunk on power.
They've controlled the White House for the past twelve out
of sixteen years. They control the media, they control the bureaucracy,
(01:15):
the deep state, they control Hollywood, they control most of
big tech. And what do they do to those who
are standing in the way. Well, Chuck Schumer gave the
game away when he said that if you mess with
the intelligence community, they have six ways from Sunday at
getting back at you. We've seen them do that to
Donald Trump. We've seen them go after Elon Musk for
daring to buy X and to make it free, to
allow for freedom of speech. And mind you, this goes
(01:37):
beyond them and earlier than that. And when we saw
Obama's irs go after the Tea Party. We also saw
during COVID, if you dare to not get vaccinated, they
went after you. Right, you had nearly half of Democrats
wanting to put the unvaccinated like me in government camps.
Speaker 2 (01:53):
Remember, they were.
Speaker 1 (01:54):
Saying that the unvaccinated, that your family shouldn't spend time with,
you shouldn't have to be able to go. You shouldn't
be able to go to the grocery store, have to
be able to fly. These are people who are not
deserving a power because of how grossly they wield it.
And what if conservatives want, you know, what if Trump
supporters want? What does Donald Trump want? Patriotism? That's what
make America Great Again is about. It's about dreaming big,
(02:14):
as he said, about wanting a better future, of wanting
the American dream to be attainable again, of believing in
the flag, not wanting to burn it, of wanting safe streets,
safe communities, of wanting secure borders, of wanting inflation to
be able to go down so you can buy a home,
you know, and God forbid, be able to put food
on the table without maxing out your credit cards, which
has been a big problem in the United States. Of
(02:34):
not wanting to send your son and daughter to war.
It's about patriotism and the fact that the left and
the Democrats and Kamala Harris hate that so much and
reject making America great so much. Doesn't it tell you
everything about their governing philosophy and their beliefs and their principles.
The future is clearer right the trajectory.
Speaker 2 (02:54):
Of this country.
Speaker 1 (02:54):
We know where we're heading. Kamala Harris would just be
doubling down on the same field of policies we're going
to get from Donald Trump because we saw it, peace
and prosperity. That's what we had. So, I mean, this
is the clearest choice I think we've ever had ever
in electoral history. Please, all you have to do is
go out and vote for Donald Trump. I've already voted early.
I've voted for Donald Trump, voted Republicans down the ballot
(03:16):
here in Florida. I also voted No. One Amendments three
and Amendment four. It's not that hard. All you have
to do is go out and vote, all right. So,
now getting into what this episode is going to be
about today, there's all sorts of pulling all over the place,
and at this point it's pretty irrelevant being this close
to election day. But what do we have that we
can go off of is early voting data and mail
(03:36):
in ballot data. That's probably the best barometer of what
could happen on election day. There's been this whole argument
by a lot of people in the media, but it's
sort of a defeatist mentality that somehow because Republicans have
been doing historically well with early voting, that it's going
to cannibalize our election day vote. But I've got someone
on the show who is saying, no, that's not going
to happen because a lot of these early voters, a
(03:58):
lot of these people who are returning mail in ballots,
they're low propensity voters. These are new voters, which means
that our reliable election day voters are still out there
and are still going to go to the polls. There's
even a lot of low propensity voters that could go
out to the polls. That means that we have enough
Republicans in this country to get the job done in
the battleground states that we need.
Speaker 2 (04:16):
And why does she know this.
Speaker 1 (04:18):
My next guest, Well, because her entire mission at the
Sentinel Action Fund is to focus on early voting and
low propensity voters, and she's been doing so since last spring,
So she's got the data to back up what she's saying,
and she's been on the ground working on all of this,
focusing on a key battleground states and trying to drive
(04:39):
out and turn out the vote. So we're going to
talk to her today about why that's important what she's
been doing and what the data is showing her about
what's going to happen.
Speaker 2 (04:49):
Tomorrow on election Day.
Speaker 1 (04:50):
So stay tuned for Jessica Anderson with the Sentinel Action Fund. Well,
Jessica Anderson, it's great to have you on the show.
Speaker 2 (05:01):
I know that, you know, we're.
Speaker 1 (05:03):
All kind of in this waiting game for election Day
with you know, the stress and trying to figure out
what's going to happen, but you probably have a better
idea than anyone at this point. So I'm looking forward
to having this conversation. Appreciate your time.
Speaker 3 (05:16):
Absolutely, it's great to be here and team minus one
day till our lives go back to normal.
Speaker 1 (05:21):
I know I was saying, I feel like a you know,
a keyboard warrior because I work in the media. You know,
I'm no longer working on these campaigns, so I'm like
this like anxiousness of feeling like, you know, what can
I do? Am I doing enough?
Speaker 2 (05:33):
You know?
Speaker 1 (05:33):
Because it's an important election, which is probably why you
started the Sentinal Action Fund in the first place. I
guess kind of like big picture take us through, like
what is it, why did you start it?
Speaker 2 (05:45):
What's the mission? Absolutely so Central Action Fund.
Speaker 3 (05:49):
We founded it last year, coming off of the governor's
race and helping Governor Younkin in Virginia on the state races,
and what we wanted to do was specifically target absentee
ballot early vote heading into what's now one of the
most consequential elections I think of our time, with a
(06:09):
focus on building out a durable GOP Senate majority. And
you know, at different parts of this year that looked
like having a Senate to be the insurance policy if
Biden was going to win. Obviously, then that shifted to
Harris and now feel pretty strongly that the GOOP Senate
majority will be a partner to President Trump in the
(06:29):
White House. And to do that, we set out to
do two things. First was to change the culture around
absentee early vote from you know, opposition, skepticism, little antagonism
that we felt in the party, to do embrace for
candidates up and down the ballot, to really embrace that
(06:50):
absentee ballot early vote was the way to properly engage
low propensity voters, and we could do it in a
way that was safe and secure, that emphasized the convenience,
and then still held true to our beliefs for election integrity,
knowing that one we win, we're able to actually go
in and make election integrity reforms, but we have to
(07:12):
play by the rules as they exist.
Speaker 2 (07:13):
So that was that was one goal for the year.
Speaker 3 (07:15):
And then the second was to engage and turn out
these low propensity voters, ensuring that our candidates entered election
day in the most aggressive and strong position as possible
without cannibalizing or rescheduling election day voters. You know, this
is not simply an effort to rearrange the deck chairs
(07:35):
on the Titanic, right. This is about bringing in low
propensity voters to the election that might not have voted.
And Lisa, you're so good on the show, I know
you're gonna ask me next how to define low propensity voters.
Speaker 2 (07:49):
I'll just tell you question. I knew it was coming.
Speaker 3 (07:56):
We look at every voter that's on the voter five
nationwide and then broken down by a state, is put
into buckets based on their propensity, and propensity is just
a fancy word for how often they've voted. So they
are a registered Republican, which is really important. These are
not new registrants. They're a registered Republican and they have
(08:18):
either never voted the last four elections, so they're a zero,
they voted one of the last four, so there are
one two of the last four. So there are two,
three of the last four, three four of the last four.
So a consistent voter you me many of the people
that are listening four out of four consistent voter of
the last election. So low propensity is really defined by
(08:41):
those that have voted zero, one or two of the
last four elections. And that's about the right cutoff. The
four out of four voter. They don't need a lot
of encouragement to vote. They're going to vote. We don't
need to be spending money to turn them out. The
three out of four they may be a swing voter.
They may have stayed home in twenty sixteen or twenty
two because of you know, not liking Trump's tweets or whatever,
(09:03):
and there's different organizations that target those three out of four's.
We really wanted to look at the zero, ones and
twos and how to turn them out in the absent
to early vote again, so our candidates were in a
super strong and aggressive position heading into election day.
Speaker 1 (09:18):
We've got more with Jessica but we've got to take
a quick commercial break. How is courting and I'll use
the word courting instead of targeting because it just it
sounds lovelier. So, you know, how is courting low propensity
voters different than you know, your registered voters that you
know we're going to go out every election cycle.
Speaker 2 (09:39):
Yeah, that's another good question.
Speaker 3 (09:40):
So what we found specifically alongside Governor Younkin and the
RSLC and the team that was working in Virginia in
twenty twenty one, was that to court and turn out
low propensity voters, we need upwards of thirty individual touches
for them. So normal political science would tell you that
(10:03):
an election day voter needs anywhere from three to seven reminders.
And those reminders can be a text message, they could
be a billboard, they could be a television ad, a
door knock, things like that.
Speaker 2 (10:15):
But they don't need they don't need a lot. They
need a light touch.
Speaker 3 (10:19):
You know, if they're in a state where you have
to request an absent tee ballot, you need a reminder
before the apps and tee ballot request deadline goes through
to get your you know, to get your request in
that sort of thing. Very basic for a four out
of four voter. For these zeros, ones and twos, you
need a whole program. And when I say thirty touches,
that could mean every single type of vertical or channel
(10:42):
to reach out to these voters. So text messages, digital ads,
a door knock from volunteers that look like them, talk
like them, are from their community, phone calls, pieces of mail.
So you use the full suite of really marketing, if
you will, to create this echo chamber around the voter,
(11:03):
which frankly, you know they're either going to be annoyed, right.
Speaker 4 (11:06):
That that they's so final voting, Yeah, exactly, They're either
going to be annoyed, uh, and then therefore they're going
to vote because they know that they'll stop being bothered
when they get their vote cast. And actually some of
our messaging says that are you tired of getting text
messages from me?
Speaker 2 (11:23):
Vote today?
Speaker 4 (11:24):
Right?
Speaker 2 (11:25):
And it works.
Speaker 3 (11:26):
But the beauty of this sort of program is you
you wrap around the voter, and you you wrap around
them before the onslaught of kind of the election season
of Red Team Blue team, and you do it in
the summer and the spring before an election, and that's
when you talk about how to vote, you talk about
(11:47):
where to vote, and you kind of build in we
call it educating like the education piece. We build in
the education piece with these voters before they add start
and before it's like taken over our lives. And then
by the time you get to a Memorial Day, you've
already established trusts with the voter with the hope that
they know where to vote, they know how to vote,
(12:07):
and now you talk to them.
Speaker 2 (12:08):
About why to vote.
Speaker 3 (12:09):
So it's a whole it's a different program. You have
to start early. We've started in all of our target
states actually in April and May. That way, we have
a huge runway to get these thirty touches in using
the multi channels, and in a really complicated state like
Pennsylvania with the Senate race there, we're actually upwards of
sixty individual touches now, which is I think pretty incredible
(12:30):
from the coalition work that's been done in the state
to turn out these voters and it's paying off.
Speaker 1 (12:36):
And your states are Nevada, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Montana that
you've been focused on.
Speaker 3 (12:42):
That's right, those are our four states and we chose
them for kind of two reasons. One, we wanted to
fill some of the operational gaps. Obviously, Montana and Ohio
are two states that are not presidential battlegrounds. President Trump
will win both of those states handily, and we needed
to have a concerted specific effort for the Senate candidate there. Pennsylvania,
(13:05):
Nevada both being overlaps that are battleground presidential and battleground Senate.
So there's a lot of really good synergy there. But
the reason why I also liked Montana and Ohio was
in both of those cases, John Tester and Montana and
shared Brown in Ohio. These are entrench Democrats, and these
are the last remaining statewide Democrats holding office in a
(13:30):
basically red state. So they're the last holdouts for the Dems.
If you remember going back to like twenty ten and
twenty twelve during the Tea Party wave, when we were
looking at those blue dog Democrats, Democrats remember like Mike
McIntyre and Heath Schuler and Larry Still in North Carolina,
all those names, right, those were the last remaining of
the blue dogs.
Speaker 2 (13:49):
Well Sheriff was at the NRCC during twenty ten. So Macley, yes, yes,
it was a huge priority.
Speaker 3 (13:57):
And this is the same sort of analogy today where
John Tester and Jared Brown are the last remaining statewide
Democrats to hold those positions statewide in states that are
basically already read.
Speaker 1 (14:11):
You know, and we've had on the show, We've had
all of these candidates on the on the podcast. I
think that there should be a lot of credit due
to the INTERSC for recruiting just like really top notch candidates.
I mean, I've been like John, my producer, and I
have been so impressed with the Senate candidates that we've
had on the show, and also Hong Kow in Virginia.
(14:31):
I mean, there's just so many of them are just
really qualified, really great candidates. You know, I wanted to
ask you, I guess walk us through a little bit.
Speaker 4 (14:40):
You know.
Speaker 1 (14:41):
You know, part of the reason why you know, we
need stuff like this with what you're doing with early
voting and low propensity voters is because of the changes
from COVID COVID era election changes, particularly to mail in
ballot and just the expansion of early voting throughout the country.
Kind of walk us through about like how that has
changed a lot elections, how it has made campaigns jobs
(15:02):
more difficult, you know, sort of walk us through about
what that means.
Speaker 3 (15:08):
Yeah, so COVID really busted up the election integrity landscape
in a way that we're all still feeling today. They
called it COVID Convenience Laws. So the goal at the
state level in many states in twenty twenty was to
use the you know, the hysteria around COVID to lessen
(15:32):
whatever election integrity measures were in place. And so you
saw a lot of states move to one hundred percent
mail out ballots. So that meant that no longer were
you the voter responsible for requesting your absentee ballot, but
instead the state sent it to you automatically. We saw
this actually in Montana. Funny enough, they did they had
(15:53):
a mandatory mail out and then they actually peeled it back,
and so they pulled.
Speaker 2 (15:57):
It back after twenty twenty two.
Speaker 3 (16:00):
In twenty twenty four, we have to remind Montana voters
that this is the first time you have to request
your appsentee ballot in the last two cycles.
Speaker 2 (16:06):
You don't just get it automatically in the mail.
Speaker 3 (16:09):
So changes, you know, they're very technical, Lisa, they're not
things that like I would say, the average voter is
like following along and voters are habitual, like they tend
to do the things, They tend to vote the same
way that they voted before, and if there's a change
in the law, they may not be aware of it.
And so from a campaign standpoint, we really have to go,
(16:31):
you know, kind of above and beyond to make sure
voters know their rights, that they know the rules that
govern how they can vote, and that they know the deadlines.
You look at a state like Pennsylvania that used COVID
to just completely splinter the election integrity framework in the state.
It's got, you know, basically sixty something counties in the
state of Pennsylvania, and every single county votes different and
(16:55):
they govern how the election is operate, including how many
days of early vote by the county. So it's not
even a statewide rule in PA. It's a county by county.
So imagine if you're in a neighborhood and eleventh Street
is one county and twelfth Street is another, you actually
have different rules that govern how you vote in your neighborhood,
(17:17):
which is crazy. So COVID changed a lot of things,
but I think what it did in the long run
is it woke up state lawmakers and governors to the
reality that they need to do their part to uphold
election integrity. We want to make it easy to vote
and hard to cheat. And that became, I think the
(17:38):
guiding principle that you saw from so many state lawmakers
from twenty twenty two till today, where there's hundreds of
new laws that are on the books that provide security
around dropboxes, that look at the voter roles and cleaning
them up, make sure that making sure that the HHS
and the DMV and the morgue in the state, that
(17:58):
all these state offices are like talking to each other
and taking a look at the voter rules. And you
saw I think some great examples, even Virginia with Governor Younkin,
you know, working so hard to make sure that illegals
can't vote in the state and then winning that case
all the way up to the Supreme Court. And so
all of this attention I think that's been brought to
(18:19):
the management of elections is actually a direct result of
the changes that were made over COVID that just opened
the waterfall. And then now you've got governors and state
lawmakers doing their part for election integrity. And then we
as an outside organization, we can come in and make
sure that whatever the rules are you know, that will
govern that cycle, that voters are aware of it so
(18:40):
that they know how to vote, where to vote, and
then we can talk.
Speaker 2 (18:43):
About the issues at stake and make the case for
why to vote, you know, for the Republican candidate.
Speaker 1 (18:48):
And I think, you know, there's a lot of evidence
to point to, you know, like, well one, it's like
we might not like the game that's in front of us,
but you know, you've got to play it to win.
And I think part of the shift with even with
Donald Trump, encouraging early voting has been significant and could
potentially end up propelling him to victory on election Day.
(19:09):
We've got more with Jessica, but first, this week marks
one of the most consequential elections in our history, and
we know that this critical time, the support of Americans
like you means so much to the people of Israel,
especially now this past year, not only have we seen
the war ray John in the Holy Land, but we've
also seen an alarming rise in anti Semitism. That's why
I'm proud of partner with the International Fellowship of Christians
(19:32):
and Jews.
Speaker 2 (19:32):
They've been building.
Speaker 1 (19:33):
Bridges between Christians and Jews for over forty years, and
since that time have been on the ground helping the
vulnerable and providing security for Jews in Israel. Thank you
for your support during this critical time. Your gift helps
the Fellowship provide food and necessities and security to those
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(19:54):
org to learn more and to make a gift. Now
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eight eight for eight eight IFCJ that's eight eight eight
for eight eight four three two five.
Speaker 2 (20:09):
I think that part of the.
Speaker 1 (20:10):
Story after election day, if people show up, you know
who are telling you and telling the campaigns they are
going to show up, is that about Republicans' efforts and
success in bringing new voters into the fold. Kind of
walk us through what you've seen in the early voting,
which you know, the polls right now are pretty much
(20:31):
irrelevant at this point.
Speaker 2 (20:32):
It's really looking at the early voting data.
Speaker 1 (20:35):
So walk us through, like what you have seen from Republicans'
ability to bring in new voters, and let's kind of
maybe focus on Nevada and Pennsylvania just because people are
obviously very concerned with the presidential races there as well,
or the presidential race as well.
Speaker 3 (20:53):
Absolutely, and both of those states I think are really
good examples of actually Republicans being aggressive for absentee ballot
early vote and to do it in a way that
would cut down the Democrats historical and really traditional early
vote leads. So when you look at a state like Pennsylvania,
(21:16):
we estimate right now that the Democrats lead going into
election day from what it held in twenty twenty two
has been reduced by about forty eight percent. And so
what I mean by that is you have ballots that
are returned for Democrats, ballots that are returned for the GOP.
When you met those numbers, you have a historical Democratic advantage. So,
(21:39):
going back to twenty twenty in Pennsylvania, Democrats had a
one point four million ballot lead because of the early
vote going into election day. In twenty twenty two, they
had a seven hundred thousand vote Democratic advantage heading into
election day. So when we hear these, you know, when
(22:00):
we talk about the twenty twenty two midterms and we
look at the doctor Oz race, you know, he had
a seven hundred thousand vote deficit to make up with
election day voters.
Speaker 2 (22:09):
There was no way that that was going to happen.
Speaker 3 (22:11):
There's not enough day of four out of four voters
that could have could have closed that gap. So when
we look at the role that cent Election Fund as
well as the larger Pennsylvania coalition with Keystone Renewal and
the RSLC now Elon's team in the state, I mean
this is an all hands on deck moment to move
as many low propensity voters to turn out in the election,
(22:35):
to turn out in the early vote.
Speaker 2 (22:37):
What we anticipate is that we will.
Speaker 3 (22:39):
Land somewhere around a Democratic advantage of about three hundred
and eighty maybe three hundred and eighty five thousand, and
so that means McCormick tomorrow heading into election day is
in the most aggressive position that any Republican has been.
Speaker 2 (22:55):
Over the last two cycles.
Speaker 3 (22:57):
And that I think will end up the story that
we look at here because it then gives us, gives
them strong a strong footing for early vote, and then
you pair that with a robust election day turnout. More
along the lines of twenty sixteen, where you've got the
Trump momentum, Trump being at the top of the ballot
drawing people out. And I think specifically in Pennsylvania, when
(23:20):
you look at the numbers of just how we make
up that three hundred and sixty eight thousand of the
likely deficit, you look at both mail and early in
person votes and where the candidates are today, but then
you also look at a second set of numbers, which
is the unreturned mail ballots that are sitting on kitchen
counters today throughout the state of Pennsylvania that need to
(23:44):
be returned today. And because of the rules in Pennsylvania,
they can actually walk in to their voting location tomorrow
and return their absentee ballot in person. And so I
think that puts Pennsylvania as a really unique situation that
the absentee early vote is going to be the difference maker,
specifically when you look at that blue wall basically being
cut in half heading into election day. And I think
(24:06):
the second point in Pa and then we can talk
about Nevada, is that the effort has been so robust
in Pennsylvania to get absentee early voters that are low
propensity voters that we've actually seen such a great response
that we're not simply cannibalizing or rescheduling election date voters
(24:27):
to vote early.
Speaker 2 (24:28):
We're turning out new voters.
Speaker 3 (24:30):
So when you look at Pennsylvania specifically by the numbers,
you see that we've got a huge amount forty six
percent that are not election day voters that are turning out.
And I think that's a real testament to the program
working and the ability for people to vote for the
(24:52):
first time or the second time in the last four years,
and they're doing it, and they're doing it through the
absentee ballot early vote process. Now, of course there's going
to be natural movement that an election day voter, you know,
like myself, I voted election day the last few cycles
that I've been able to vote, but this year I
chose to vote early.
Speaker 2 (25:10):
Well, that's not a bad thing. It's not a bad
thing if.
Speaker 3 (25:12):
You vote early, But specifically for those low propensity voters,
it's probably the only way we're going to get them
because they're busy and they're likely to turn around if
the line is long, or if their childcare falls through
or their job or whatever, and so you really have
to open the aperture.
Speaker 2 (25:27):
For them to be able to vote.
Speaker 3 (25:29):
Similar situations going on in Nevada and I think it's
worth really digging in on the numbers here too.
Speaker 2 (25:35):
We see and we've seen.
Speaker 3 (25:37):
An incredible response in Nevada, and I think the governor
deserves a lot of credit for the work that he's
done on the election integrity front.
Speaker 2 (25:46):
And also to to.
Speaker 3 (25:48):
Basically put the Harry Reid machine that's usually ran the
ground game in Nevada, you know, he's really been able
to match that. And so you're not only going against
kind of the ghost of Harry Reid, if you will,
but also the culinary unions and the larger union footprint
that's in Clark County. I mean, it's a huge infrastructure
to try to tackle. And to Sam Brown's credit, who's
(26:12):
the candidate running in the Senate today, we have him
up fifty four thousand early in person votes as of
this weekend. He's behind on the mail votes. So when
those two net out your early in person votes and
your mail votes, we expect that he'll be that he
(26:34):
stays at a thirty three hundred ballot GOP advantage. Now
that number might seem really small, Lisa, and it totally is.
But remember the Nevada Senate election in twenty twenty two
was decided by seventy nine hundred votes. So these are
these are really tight races in Nevada where literally every
single ballot that's collected and cured and harvested is going
(26:59):
to matter, is going to make a difference. I also
think for Nevada, you've got an incredible amount of early
of early voters that are first time voters. Some of
these voters are could be new transplants that have moved
into Nevada from California after COVID, which is also I
(27:19):
think something interesting in the data. So of the four
hundred and three thousand votes that have been cast, we
think ballots returned for Brown at this point, one hundred
and eighty six thousand of them are low props. And
so I think that tells also a good story that
there's not this election day cannibalization but really.
Speaker 2 (27:40):
Bringing in new voters.
Speaker 3 (27:42):
And of course Nevada is worth mentioning that it's a
totally different setup than Pennsylvania or some of these other
battlegrounds because everybody in Nevada automatically is mailed a ballot,
and so there's really no difference between analyzing unreturned ballots
versus ballots returned it's statistically insignificant.
Speaker 2 (28:03):
In Nevada.
Speaker 3 (28:04):
You really have to look at what the early in
person vote, the mail vote, and then you rack those
all up to get these numbers, which put Sam Brown
in a very aggressive posture heading into election day, and
I think ultimately we'll put President Trump over the finish
line to win in Nevada.
Speaker 1 (28:21):
And what's significant about this for those at home is,
you know, Republicans don't lead in the early vote, right
so to be leading in Nevada, I think it's the
first time in the states, in the state for Republicans
to be leading, or even in Pennsylvania, for Republicans to
be able to cut that early vote in mail in
ballot deficit by as much as they have. That's significant.
(28:43):
And then the other significant point you made is that
you know, there's this a lot of talk about because
Republicans have been excelling in early vote, Well, that just
means that we don't have enough in the tank. We
don't have enough Republicans they're going to be able to
turn out on election day to get us to victory.
But what you're saying is no, because a significant portion
(29:04):
of this early vote, of the early return mail in ballots.
They're low propensity voters, which means that we still have
enough in the tank of you know, our regular voters,
the ones that show up every election day, or even
of some of these new voters you don't tend to vote.
There's enough of them that you're aware of that can
get out and show up and win. And I think
you had made a point to me the other day.
(29:28):
You know, so in twenty twenty, Biden had an edge
of you know, eighty five hundred votes in Pennsylvania. And
how many unreturned mail in ballots are there right now.
Speaker 3 (29:42):
In Pennsylvania, right now, sitting on kitchen counters, you know, statewide,
there's over one hundred and sixty one thousand unreturned mail
in ballots.
Speaker 1 (29:53):
So that would have made the difference of the election
in twenty twenty if so. Basically, the whole gist of
this is is we have the votes, we have the people.
The numbers look good. You know, people like Jessica have
done their jobs. The Trump campaign's done, you know, their job.
They're still doing their job. The McCormick campaign in Pennsylvania
are doing their jobs. Sam Brown's doing his drop right.
(30:15):
So like all you have to do if you're listening
to this is a vote which is simple. Or in
Pennsylvania just go return your ballot or Nevada just go
eat it, right. So I mean, it's not that hard,
like all you got to do is vote, and the
numbers are there and we can.
Speaker 3 (30:28):
Win, absolutely, and it's not too late, right and in
a lot of places you can still vote today early,
and then you can be the first in line tomorrow
nowhere to go and be ready with your plan. And
I think if we have a strong election day turn
out tomorrow that's more in line with the twenty sixteen
(30:49):
turnout numbers, then you're looking at President Trump in the
White House and a GOP Senate majority that is his partner.
Speaker 1 (30:58):
And how early on tomorrow do you think we will
have a good idea of you know what we're going
to learn on election night?
Speaker 2 (31:08):
Oh that's a tough one.
Speaker 3 (31:11):
The governor of Pennsylvania had an interview over the weekend
where he was committed to committed at least over the weekend.
So maybe this gets rolled back Democratic governor, but Governor
Shapiro committed that they were going to they were going
to count through the night and not stop. And so
(31:32):
I think that's really important. People don't need a break, right,
you can slide other people in. There's plenty of people
to help count ballots, and so I think if Pennsylvania
can commit to counting all the way through and not
taking a break, that's going to be critical. I think
the fact that you've got so many battleground states that
are on East coast time also helps North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania,
(31:56):
all states that I think are going to be counting
through the night. And then as you move west and
you look at Wisconsin, Michigan, Montana for the Senate race,
Nevada for both, Arizona for both, you know, that's when
I think stuff trickles into the next day. The big
outlier that we just don't know is if it's if
it's going to be close, both for the presidential and
(32:19):
the Senate. Nevada's got a frustrating law that's in place
that could end up at the Supreme Court. It's not yet.
It's a state law that's been upheld, but it basically
allows that ballots that are ballots can be counted up
to three days after election day. And so if it's
(32:42):
a tight race, then I could see it I could
see Nevada take advantage of all three of those days
right with they're counting. But if it's not tough, if
it's not tight and it's a landside, then the you know,
the votes out of Nevada matter less for the presidency.
So I think that's the big factor. But knowing North
(33:06):
Carolina at Georgia and Pennsylvania on the early side of
the night by you know two three am is a
good sign for Trump at that point.
Speaker 1 (33:14):
Well, I think, you know, a lot of the conversation
because of course, you know, the media narrative is always
weaker to Republicans. That's just you know, sort of like
the constant theme right when you've got I think it's
like eighty four percent negati or eighty nine percent negative
coverage of Trump or whatever it is. But the whole
narrative has been, oh, Republicans are eating into their election
(33:35):
day vote, when I think maybe the flip side of that,
and the better question is, you know, do Democrats have
enough left in the tank, because you know, they're the
ones who traditionally and historically get out the vote early.
They're you know, tend to do better and mail ballots,
and so do they have the numbers to maintain the
edge that they have in Pennsylvania or make up, you know,
(33:57):
the edge that Republicans have in Nevada. So I think
it's actually the better question is do Democrats have enough
in the tank and enough excitement on the ground to
get their people out on election day?
Speaker 2 (34:09):
Yeah?
Speaker 3 (34:10):
I mean in Pennsylvania. One way to answer that question
is the Democrats are sitting on more unreturned mail in
ballots right now today than the GOP is. Democrats have
about over two hundred thousand unreturned mail ballots. That are
you know, sitting on those kitchen counters. They've got to
do the work to chase those in whereas we have
you know, closer to one hundred and thirty thousand unreturned
(34:30):
mail in ballots. So, you know, I think that difference
is significant, and it's a place we've never been before.
This is not this is like, this is going to
be hopefully a new trend line for Republicans to fully
embrace and utilize the early vote and put our guys
in as much of an aggressive position heading into election
(34:51):
day that hasn't always been the case.
Speaker 1 (34:54):
Yeah, there's this clip of David Oxelrod sort of freaking
out on CNN the other day, worrying that their people
just aren't as excited as they need to be and
that they're not going to be able to get their
coalition to show up enough on election day. But you know,
we'll see, right, because we are almost there before we go.
(35:16):
You know, I guess, how are you what's your read
on what this election is going to look like when
it's all said and done. You know, how are you
feeling about things?
Speaker 2 (35:27):
Well?
Speaker 3 (35:27):
You know, I don't have a crystal ball, and so
one can only hope and pray at this point. And
my hope is that President Trump returns to the White House,
that we keep a House majority, and that the Senate
flips to GOP control by at least fifty three seats.
I think should be kind of our high water mark
(35:48):
of a goal for tomorrow. And that puts President Trump,
I think, in the most aggressive position he can be
for at least the next two years before the twenty
twenty sixth election, for everything he wants to do, you know,
everything from the economy to foreign policy, to safety and
security to securing the border.
Speaker 2 (36:05):
I mean, he.
Speaker 3 (36:06):
Needs a strong Senate to be his partner to get
his cabinet nominations through. What if we have another Supreme
Court fight. I mean, there's so many things from a
policy standpoint that could happen the next two years.
Speaker 2 (36:18):
And I think the I think President.
Speaker 3 (36:19):
Trump knows that time is of the essence, and he's
going to be aggressive in fixing all of the things
that the Biden Harris regimes screwed up over the.
Speaker 2 (36:31):
Last four years.
Speaker 3 (36:32):
And I think the economy and the border are probably
two things that he handles right away on day one.
And so I'm hopeful that we'll be at fifty three
in the Senate, keep the House, and that President Trump
will return to Pennsylvania Avenue.
Speaker 4 (36:45):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (36:46):
I mean I feel good about things, but you know,
obviously it all comes down to people showing up and
returning ballots.
Speaker 2 (36:53):
So that's right, it's not over. Yeah.
Speaker 1 (36:57):
And also the irony is, you know, there's such a
loss faith and institutions, and he's probably the only guy
that can turn that around, just with transparency and also
just you know, getting rid of some of these bad
actors that have led to the loss of faith and institutions.
Jessica Anderson really appreciate the work you're doing. And then
where can people learn more about the Sentinel Action Fund.
Speaker 3 (37:18):
Centel Action Fund dot com is a one stop shop
for all of our work and you can follow me
on Twitter at jess Anderson too.
Speaker 2 (37:26):
Thanks for having me, Lisa.
Speaker 1 (37:28):
That was Jessica Anderson with the Sentinel Action Fund. Appreciate
her for taking the time to join the show. Appreciate
you guys at home for listening every Monday and Thursday,
but you can listen throughout the week. I doant to
thank John, Cassie and my producer for putting the show together.
Until next time.