41. Draft Talk with NFL Network's Mike Silver and Best Over/Under Bets!

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
The volume. The Colin Cowherd Podcast brought to you by
Fan Duel. It's never been easier to play fantasy on
Fan Duel. Whether you love basketball, golf, soccer, or any
fantasy sport, there is a contest for every fan Fan
Duel more ways to win. Hi, everybody, Welcome to our

(00:29):
Friday morning podcast. Mike Silver, formerly at Sports Illustrated, now
at the NFL Network, Totally dialed in. Chad Millman stops
by for a few minutes. Over unders are out and
there's three of them that are tantalizing moneymakers. But first,

(00:51):
Fake questions, Real answers. There are questions I want to answer,
but I don't want to have to wait for somebody
to ask them to me, so I write the us myself.
It's time for our Friday feature, Fake Questions, Real Answers.
Dear Colin, I saw your taking the European Soccer League

(01:11):
where you mocked them for not having the quote Cojones
to go through with their plan. It made me think
you know nothing about soccer. Do you know anything about soccer?
For one, my mom's from Europe, I've spent a summer
as a kid. They're watching a World Cup. Then I
grew up in Seattle with the Sounders. I think we
all know Seattle's a great soccer city. I worked in

(01:31):
Portland Clive Charles Portland Pilot's a top program and covered them.
I like soccer twice. I've tried to buy an interest
a share in the MLS. So yeah. I'm also a
season ticket holder to LAFC and I missed very few
United States men's national team games. Listen, this move wasn't
about soccer. This move was about the big dogs in

(01:55):
Europe wanting a larger share of revenue. I've said this before.
I think college football should break away from athletic departments
and privatize. Why should Ohio State have to fund every
athletic department in Columbus. I'm going to always support the
biggest brands in sports who always pay a disproportionate share

(02:20):
of the bills. Do you know when Purdue in Iowa
and Nebraska charge the most for tickets? When Ohio State
comes to town and Ohio State saying why are we
splitting the revenue? I agree, Real Madrid, Barcelona, man, you
wanted a bigger share, and I think they deserve it.

(02:40):
Dear Colin, out of all the topics you've ever discussed
in the history of all your shows, Which is the
one you hope to never discuss again? That's easy. The
Heisman Trophy. It is an embarrassingly parochial award where the
West Coast writers vote for the best Pack twelve players,

(03:01):
and the Midwestern writers vote for the best Big ten players,
and the Southern writers vote for the best SEC players.
You basically have to be a quarterback, a running backer, receiver,
and at about eight programs that dominate the competition and
get on television every week. Now in terms of the
actual ceremony every year on Saturday Night that you cannot miss.

(03:24):
It is the weirdest hour of sports television in America.
Every year Studley college players surrounded by wax figures. Well
they're people, but they looked like wax figures. It's a funeral,
but with less energy. That I don't miss. Dear Colin,
if you think you know so much about football and scouting,

(03:46):
why don't you do everybody a favor retire from broadcasting
and become a general manager. Well, because at eight years old,
I didn't want to be a general manager. I wanted
to be a broadcaster. And I've poured forty five years
of passion into it. And by the way, I think
a lot of people listening to me today if you
would have loved broadcasting at eight like I did and

(04:07):
poured forty five years of your passion into it. It's
a transferable skill. It's not like I have musical or
athletic talent that's in eight and I don't think mostly
can be taught. But to be a general manager, you
first have to be a scout and for a long time,
and then maybe you upgrade to a regional scout, then
a director of scouting. You're on the road two hundred

(04:28):
and forty five days a year. At this point in
my life, the only time I want to be on
the road is driving to a resort or to and
from work. It's too late. I missed my second biggest dream.
Dear Colin, you swear sometimes in your podcast, but you
don't on television. How do you keep the f bombs
from flying on TV? Well, I can tell the difference

(04:50):
between a podcast and broadcast. I've taught myself to do
that now. I have sworn on television. Once I got
in trouble. I was suspended short story Law Vegas. It
was during the Phoenix Suns Chicago Bulls NBA Finals. I
was doing the six and eleven o'clock sportscast at KVBC,
the NBC affiliate. After the eleven o'clock sportscast, I would

(05:13):
tape a two and a half minute morning sportscast. So
after the eleven o'clock sportscast, everybody leaves. I stayed there
with a producer and a camera person and I go
three two one and I start doing my morning sportscast
on tape. But and I do this often, I butchered it.
So I said, oh shit, let's do it again three

(05:35):
two one, and I taped it, this time without air.
But when we left it overnight, the morning tape person
rolled from the very beginning. So I got a call
at six forty five in the morning from my station manager.
You just swore on TV. Oh I got suspended. No

(05:55):
big deal. The tape person felt terrible. I felt worse.
My dad did give me great advice though. My dad said, listen, Tiger,
you got to take the hit on this. You're the
guy making the money not to tape people. It's your fault.
If the press calls, you take the hit. So I did,
and that probably got me a chance to come back

(06:15):
to work a week later. Dear Colin, By the way,
these questions have been brilliant so far, haven't they. What's
the most uncomfortable interview you've ever had other than that
one with Jim Harbaugh? Well, Harbaugh is one, two and three.
Funny thing about the Hardball interview. It was so bad.
I got multiple media people texting me, you can go

(06:37):
back and listen to it somewhere, And it was funny
how many people said, dude, I interviewed him two weeks ago,
it was awful. Anyway. I had a real contentious interview
one time with a Packed twelve commissioner I forget his name,
Tom something. I'm not a real contentious broadcaster. I would
rather massage somebody into good answers, like for instance, this

(06:59):
week I had Dana White on. I would rather have
Dana White on four and five times a year instead
of burning him. So he comes on once and I
get a great interview. I'm in it for the long haul.
Most people I bring on have good information. I want
to bring him on more than once. I'm not into
burning people. Remember the old site Deadspin. I think it's

(07:21):
still around after it blew up. One of the reasons
I had no respect for it. It was in the
gotcha business. They were trying to get people fired. I'm not.
I'm trying to get the best information I can. So
you learn something. I learned something, and I can bring
him back on, hopefully six months later. All right, let's

(07:41):
bring on Mike Silver, formerly at Sports Illustrated, now works
for the NFL Network and NFL dot Com. And he's
very contentious on Twitter. He gets after people. It's too
exhausting for me. So Mike, I came, I had an
epiphany this week. Would you like to hear it? Yes,

(08:02):
I would love to hear it. So I didn't get
mac Jones at all. I didn't get it at all.
Too many red flags, Dui lois ceiling, bad body. I'm
a believer in Trevor Lawrence, Trey Lance, everybody else. Basically
where they land, they land. And then I had a moment.

(08:24):
So Bruce Feldman of The Athletic interviewed a bunch of scouts,
two dozen scouts, and when they talked about mac Jones,
all of them said, listen, he's ready to play now
because of Sark and Saban, He's got so much NFL
stuff and he's throwing to NFL receivers, NFL coach, NFL coordinator,
he's ready to play now. And I said to myself,

(08:47):
Kyle Shanahan, this is when it hit me. He's not
thinking about ceiling. Kyle saying, shit, the only year I
had a starter, I got to the Super Bowl. I'm
beating Sean mcv hey with a backup, and you guys
think he's a genius, and he's just sitting there thinking,
just give me a smart kid who can pass the
ball and stay up right, and I'll take it. I

(09:08):
don't want to train somebody. I've been here four years,
I've won one year, and it kind of hit me like, oh,
I get it now. So your interpretation of what my
epiphany was, yeah, I mean I would say it this way.
It's it's similar to what I would say. You know,
first of all, Kyle Shanahan has a very specific system

(09:29):
that he wants run an exact way, more than probably anyone.
And by the way, I think if you gave Sean
McVay and a lot of other people truth serum and
said who is the most ahead in terms of offensive scheme,
you know who is the greatest thinker. Kyle would probably

(09:50):
get that vote. You know, some people would, I think
rightfully say Sean Payton is in that conversation. But Kyle
Shanahan is on another level. But it's not just that
he is brilliant schematically. He wants his scheme run a
certain way. It all goes together, the run in the past.
It dates back to what his father did, and Jimmy

(10:12):
Garoppolo in some ways is a great quarterback for Kyle Shanahan,
and that his temperament is perfectly geared toward being yelled
at and berated and moving past it and just being like,
you know what, onto the next play. But in terms
of seeing it the way Kyle wants it, seem executing
it the way Kyle Watson executed not a perfect fit,

(10:34):
and the injuries have made him now feel unreliable. So yes,
Kyle does have a team that you know he believes
last year was the operation with the injuries, and I
tend to agree it is a move for the future,
but it's very much a win now move. I don't
think you trade three ones thinking I'm going to sit

(10:54):
a guy behind Jimmy if he could stay healthy. I
think they'll either trade him or at worst, you know,
squeeze him and sid him, but probably the former. And yeah,
and in terms of who's going to be best playing now,
you can make that mac Jones case. But I think
the way you said it is right. It's I just

(11:15):
need a guy who will run my system and complete passes. Now,
I think a cynic would say, well, you gave up
three ones, and we're not sure other teams would take
back that high. In my opinion, look, if you've got
a guy you love, don't score around, don't worry about
the three ones or the draft position, just go get them.
But I've learned from talking to some people who understand

(11:39):
this situation, well, there are some things mac Jones does
that they think are uncanny and elite. Footwork in the pocket,
ability to slide during the drop from one side of
the other, to feel the rush, and those things they
think are ahead of Because I think people tend to

(12:00):
can sign him and say, well, Kyle loves Kirk Cousins,
he loves about job. That's who they're getting. They think
that there's something else going on there that's more advanced
and ahead of guys like that. At an earlier point,
and so that I know they I believe that they
made this trade. Obviously, you have to love three guys
to make that trade. I believe that in addition to

(12:22):
Wilson and Lawrence, who as we all believe, will be gone,
Max the third guy they love. But I think they
then said, let's do our due diligence and take as
close a look at Fields and Lance as we can.
But I it is Kyle's decision. It is Kyle's system.
And if you believe that Kyle is the best person
to judge who will thrive at his system than as

(12:45):
a forty nine er fan, you should be at peace
with it and go cool, he's getting this guy. I
don't like the picks they gave away, but I will
say this, and I thought about this. I saw what
Darnald got. Darnald got three picks. Garoppol in a trade
is going to get you two to three picks. You're
gonna get some draft capital back it maybe two twos

(13:07):
and maybe a second, third and a fourth. But I
think you know increasingly in this league, and I want
to pivot to this. These young general managers Chris Ballard
less sneed. They don't look at first round picks like
their predecessors did. Ballard and sneed think to themselves, well,

(13:28):
we're not going to be in the top twelve, so
what is the twenty third pick in the draft? So
Garoppolo may garner a second, a second and a third.
And I think a lot of these young gms, Mike,
they don't covet once unless it's a top five pick.
Your thoughts, well, Ballard gets more love relative to production

(13:49):
than any GM I've ever seen. And I know he's done.
He's done some really good things. Don't get me wrong.
I would just say, for the point of comparison, his predecessor,
Ryan Griggson's look over a team that was three and thirteen.
Did pick Andrew Luck with that first pick, but immediately
one had a great record. Obviously did make some picks

(14:11):
that were not awesome at times, and you know it
didn't have the best bedside manner. But you look at
their record under Ryan Brigson when Andrew Luck was hurt,
still a winning record, and Chris Ballard they did win
a playoff game one year, They've gone twice. They Nelson
and Letter picks understandably get a lot of attention. There's

(14:33):
been some other picks where you're like, not looking so killer,
And you know, another cynic would say, well, the premium
positions on a football team. If your GM is that good,
who's their edge that blows you away, who's their shut
down corner, who's their quarterback? Well, they're hoping it's Carson Wentz. Now,

(14:54):
who's their deep threat, true number one receiver, who's their
left tackle? A cynic would say, those are the those
are the five bedrock positions on a football team, and
they arguably are unsettled at all of them. So but
you're right, but more that's that's interesting segue. While I just,

(15:16):
you know, went counterintuitive on the Chris Ballard anointing of
his excellence and again he's done some really good things.
But you're right. There is a new mentality above GMS,
and I like it because I remember the old pre
free agency priests ninety one CBA reality when the only

(15:37):
way a guy could leave. And this shows how old
I am is. You could sign this weird thing if
your contract was up and another team could offer you money.
But then if the other if your team didn't match,
that team had to give up two first round picks
and some old salty GM at the time said I
wouldn't trade two number ones for God odd and I

(16:00):
was like, always really really, because first of all, I'd
do it for Joe Bontana. Now he may be God,
I mean, you know at the time, but you know,
yeah two number one, that could be like, you know,
Vernon Gholston or you know, I mean, even if you're
picking high, not to pick on him, you know, Ryan Lee.
I mean just but yeah, I think particularly in the

(16:23):
NFC West though, you're seeing this arms race, you know,
the Rams and not just you know, not just with Stafford,
but with Ramsey before that and other guys, they've been like,
we're just gonna try to go after it right now
and figure it out. And the Seahawks, in a kind
of a different position, had to flirt with trading Russell

(16:45):
Wilson and they came up all out for Jamal Adams.
That would have been a big overhaul there. The Niners
clearly are going all in, and the Cardinals have been
aggressive too, and and you know, yeah, so I think
I like the mentality, and I especially like it as
it relates to the salary cap. And I just I

(17:06):
hate when fans try to lecture me on the cap
like it's their money. First of all, like bro like,
don't worry about the owner writing that check. It's gonna
be okay. Secondly, you don't understand the tricks that can
be done to manipulate the cap as well as an
old crusty person like me and Jason likes doing it
and Sean Payton's doing it. And yes, you might have

(17:28):
to pay the piper once in a while, especially in
this anomaly of a year where it actually did go
down because of a pandemic, though it will shoot right
back up. You saw the data deal and the streaming
deal and the broadcast deals like it's gonna go back up.
But that's overstated. So it doesn't mean you can pay
anybody anything all the time. But you can be more

(17:50):
aggressive and live for the moment more than is commonly perceived.
And that's why when teams like the Packers go full
passivity for thirty years and try to act like their
method is the best, it drives me insane, because, yeah,
if I had a first ballot Hall of Fame quarterback
back to back for three decades concurrent, I could afford

(18:14):
to just sit on my hands and build through the
draft and just you know, and I'm gonna look pretty
good every year too, because those guys will cover up
all ills. If I did that for thirty years and
came out with three Super Bowl appearances, two Lombardies in
that period, you'd probably say, dude, maybe you should have liked,

(18:34):
you know, taken a few swings. And then when the
Packers do take swings, it typically works out well, Like
they went big two years ago in free agency, and
Sadarius Smith, Preston Smith, Billy Turner and Reynabosa helped the team.
You know, Charles Woodson helped the team. It just it
drives me a sick. You know those hot takes you

(18:57):
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(19:19):
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(20:08):
interesting about that because obviously the Bears don't know how
to manipulate the cap. They barely pay anybody and still
couldn't afford to keep Kyle Fuller. And the Buccaneers have
basically the Russian Hockey All Star team. It's like there's
no holes. The backup goalies great. So, but it is
it is interesting. I'll throw a theory at you, Silver,

(20:29):
and I'm a theory guy. Is that if you look
at many of the frugal and conservative people, the Cincinnati
Bengals legendarily cheap and conservative, Chris Ballard very frugal, Green
Bay Packers, very reticent to make moves. And my theory
is some of this is geographical. Is that a lot

(20:51):
of those team Pittsburgh very almost overly loyal. Why because
coastal at east think different. You can't drive around LA
and San Francisco see all the tech money, the Pacific Ocean,
all these cranes, all this money. There is a sense
of we'll make it work. We'll just think like that's right. Yeah. No.

(21:17):
And and in the consumerism in DC, Boston, New York, LA, Seattle,
San Francisco, there's an optimism that we got money to burn,
we'll figure it out. The Midwestern ethos Mike is Mike Pence, saving,
frugal um, spend less than you make. And I think
it's the fan base it bleeds over. The sensibility of

(21:39):
Midwestern teams is more conservative. Those coastal elites are now
getting blamed for one more thing, will again being old.
Let me go back. And because I once wrote a
during the lockout, I was so far. I was at
Yahoo at the time, not working for the actual NFL

(21:59):
that work. And you know I'm the son of Union
side labor lawyers, and I was very sympathetic to the
player's position, and people were calling me a communist, and
I wrote a column and I said, I am not
nor I have have I ever been a member of
the Communist party just by going to call, But I
I do know some communists and it's the NFL owners.

(22:23):
And I did a whole column on how the NFL
is like Communism. And it's funny because for years and
years and years I have been, you know, decidedly different
from the communist model when it comes to NFL sensibilities.
And I used to do owner rankings for years, and

(22:44):
I like, you know, so they the old owners were
like pullet barrel boxes. It was like, we split everything
the TV money, garn geez also profit, and we will
split up the gread and we will control costs and
the draft. He who is last shelby first, and you know,

(23:04):
on and on and on. And they were quite comfortable
with that. And you, as an NFL owner, you don't
have to try to make lots of money. You're guarantee
a profit because of the TV money, and amazingly, the
franchise valuation guarantees you a massive profit. So it's nice
to win, it'd be great to win, but they don't
all need to win, and some of them behave accordingly. Well,

(23:28):
that mentality started Eddie to Bartelow and Jerry Jones and
later Robert kraft Work came in and they were like,
excuse me. And Jerry was like, oh, the NFL has
a deal with Coke, I'm signing one with Pepsi for
the stadium, and why are we splitting up the money?
And on and on and so it's still communism, but

(23:49):
there's been an entrepreneurial spirit since the de Bartelow Jones takeover.
And I mean, honestly, look this stuff up. Maybe I'll
do a thing on this SubTime. But there was a
point where they were two years into a TV deal
and the ratings were a little lower than expected, and
the old line owners said, we got to give a

(24:11):
rebate to our broadcast partners. We got to show our
faithful partners CBS, at NBC, at ABC that you know,
they stuck with us in tough times and now ratings
are down, we're halfway through the deal. We got to
give them some money back. And De Bartolo and Jones
were like, excuse me, Like, are you insane, and so

(24:33):
they successfully prevailed upon them. Not too Fox came in.
All the CBS people got fired, The X Files blew
up sixty minutes, took a hit, CBS had to fight
its way back in. NBC people got fired. They fought
their way back in, and ever since, rightly owners have

(24:53):
been like, oh, we have the you know, in a market,
in a world where live TV and works are dying
and the audience is fragmented and not sturdy, we are
still gold. So and the new TV deals negotiated during
a global pandemic reflect that. So I agree with your theory.

(25:15):
I've got to think actually a lot about that, the
geography of it. But I would say old money owners,
old line owners who And Mark Davis was like that
until Vegas paid him and made him a new money owner.
But basically, if your owners are just you know, the
old you know, hey, man, we take our check and

(25:36):
we give a portion of it, and we you know,
they're gonna Cincinnati. Cincinnati's got one of those owners to
get what I used to do. Owner Rakings describing one
of the great meetings where Jerry Jones got up and
said to Mike Brown, but this is back where there
was a revenue sharing component. Jerry Jones said, you decided

(25:57):
to name of your stadium after your late father. I
am so touched by that. But now I have to
sumsidize you because you didn't take a Davy rights deal.
In what universe? Is that? Okay? And you know I
think he had a point. Yeah, I think he did.

(26:17):
I remember the Coke Pepsi deal. It was very much
what Mark Cuban did with the NBA. He pushed back.
And that's why Mark Cuban can't get into the baseball
because he's a pushback guy. And that's three. I mean,
I like where. I really do like where the NFL.
You know. One of the things that's interesting, Mike is that,
and I've said this, do you know Tim Cune very well?
In fact, Tim did the first Dennis Rodman book. I

(26:41):
kind of introduced Tim and Dennis because I was unable
to do that book Tim did. Tim did such a
good job on it that I believe it was the
biggest selling sports biography and history to that point. Yeah.
So he, uh, you know, ghost write my two books.
I'm done writing book. It's ditch digging. I didn't like it,
but it was fun. And challenging. But we've talked about

(27:04):
this that baseball is the thinking man sport. It's a
chess game. But yet there's this rigidity in the sport.
The lack of progressive insight drives me crazy. Football is
considered neanderthal. They'll literally change rules at halftime of a game.

(27:24):
What's fascinating is the knuckle dragging football. Sport is so
smart and progressive and willing to adapt and evolve hourly.
Baseball the geniuses the sports, Stephen Hawking and Stephen King
and anybody you know with an IQ above one ninety.
That sport literally took longer than Little League baseball. You

(27:46):
get the replay figured out time in locker rooms. I mean,
most football players have to study their craft more than
anyone would imagine. And are you know they went to
college Like, they're pretty thoughtful about what they do, and
there's a lot of information they have to retain. Uh
Baseball baseball players sit in the clubhouse that don't seem

(28:07):
to have much to do. And uh I once said
covering horse racing was very similar to covering baseball, except
that the horses were typically better. Quotes that that wasn't
every that wasn't every baseball player, but s well, I'll
move off that. That's very funny. I knew there was

(28:29):
a reason that brought you on silver. So um so, my, my,
My feeling on the draft is we always you know,
guys like me have I gotta fill twelve segments a day,
ten minutes a segment, and so it would be like
you doing six columns a day. Sometimes you just one
of the reasons I think I'm a little bit of

(28:50):
a theorist. It fills time, it's fun. I like the thought.
I don't care if I'm right. I just like talking
about stuff. And um and I said today what we
should do is not talk about the quarterbacks until after
they're drafted and tell me where they land, because then
I can almost guarantee you where they'll struggle. Zach Wilson
with Robert Sala, who will be the fourth best coach

(29:12):
in that division, presumably for the first couple years. That's
gonna be hard, battle line, shakey owner, new coach Tray Lance.
And this is one of the things I feel strongly
about is that I don't think at Lanta is going
to take a quarterback. I don't because I think what's
I'll give you my theory on this because what Trey

(29:34):
Lance does well, Matt Ryan does poorly. And so if
Trey Lance plays well in exhibition games or at practice
with a bigger arm and more mobile and fans see that,
and the Falcons go on a three game losing street,
which they're prone to do, the pushback will be extreme

(29:55):
from the fans and the media and it'll last two years.
You will not be able to sit Tray. You know.
What's so what if you take a guy at four?
Who cares? If you take a guy at four, then yeah,
he's gonna play and soon. And if Matt Ryan withers
in that competition, then what do you lose? It's a
new coach Duga now. And that's not to say that

(30:15):
they will take Trey Lance or a quarterback. That would
be the argument. I think this though. Trey Lance is
so interesting to me because on one level, he is very,
very hard to project as a play right away. Guy. Ay,
he is from let's just say it, from North Dakota State.
You know, bless Carson Wentz for coming in and looking

(30:38):
good early. I think that would be considered an anomaly
if you look at the history of very very small schools.
I mean, Joe Flacco transferred from pitt to Delaware and
was pretty good right away. But for the most part,
people who come from lead a little schools and play quarterback.
You know, Steve McNair, it usually takes a while. By

(31:00):
the way, even Big Ben, they basically we're babysitting him
for a year and a half. I mean to North
Dakota State in college football, as you know, the New
England Patriots franchises to the Cincinnati Bengals. I mean, it's
not you know, it's it's bigger. Okay, So that's number one.
Number two, from what I hear about Trey Lance, it

(31:22):
does sound like, yeah, his skill set would be one
where you'd like him to develop, you know, over a
little bit of time. Number three, he played one game
in fifteen, butts, you know, he didn't have a season.
He um he might not have ever led a two
minute drive because I think they were almost always ahead
in those other games and he only started that one year.

(31:43):
So all those things say to me. Wait, there's one
thing though, that says to me, I don't know, he's
the only one of those guys who take snaps under
center all the time. And uh, you know, so in
a year, whether there might be a virtual offseason for
part of it and you're not, you're still not going
to have the usual ability to grind your rookie. Not
as bad as last year, but not ideal. Um. Yeah,

(32:07):
maybe I want the guy who actually can go over there,
take a snap under center, run a play action drop
back on timing. So that's just another piece of a
weird puzzle. And so if mac Jones does go three,
you've got two guys Fields and Lands. So I think
a lot of people are going to be saying I
love them a year from now or two years from now.

(32:29):
I don't know if I love them today, but I
think if you draft them that high, there's it's going
to start skewing very hard to work. I probably love
them today. Yeah. And also, Mike, it's really I'm a
college football die hard. It's a really bad quarterback draft
next year, at least we don't as we see it now.

(32:50):
It's it's like, yeah, there's brows of the world sometimes
you know assent, Yeah, yes, but yeah, um, but I
do think if you like Trey Lance, and I mean
most of these guys, if you talked to a less
sneed and I have he's projecting two years out. I mean,
he knows what next year's draft looks like. And they're

(33:13):
you know, they're crossing their fingers on bow Nicks at Auburn,
Slovis at USC who I just don't think has the
prototypical body to play in the NFL. He gets hurt
a lot in the Pac twelve. But let me move
to this. So I have a theory that everybody's got
a hole. Doesn't matter if it's Bezos, read Hastings at Netflix.

(33:34):
Everybody's got a hole. It doesn't matter except us. We
are wizards. But Belichick has struggled mightily drafting wide receivers.
And it's interesting. I've had people call me and say,
does he or was Tom Brady such a perfectionist that

(33:57):
he just wouldn't let him develop? And that Edelman and
took for years? Is that Tom is the reason? By
the way, He's drafted good offensive lineman, he's drafted good
tight ends, he's drafted solid running backs. Harris looks good,
Sony Michelle. Do you look at Belichick and go he
can't draft a receiver for the life of him? Or

(34:17):
do you say, guess what Brady was the issue at
wide receiver because they draft everything else pretty good. Oh man,
Scotty Miller looks like he's developing. I mean, I think
this is how I see it, because again I'm old,
so I used to be real close with Brady and
a lot of people close to him, and for six

(34:40):
years there was a lot of you know, Peyton Mannings
got Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne and among others. And
is Marcus Pollard he is setting passing records. And Tom
has the on branch who is a really nice player,
and a lot of little mini guys you don't really know,

(35:01):
like David Gibbons and Troy Brown, and you know he's not.
We have to win, you know, we went with defense
and clutch play and field goals. Heaven forbid, we get
Tom some actual weapons, and then they got Randy Boss,
Dante Stalworth and Wes Welker, who granted at the time,

(35:21):
was not considered a weapon. And it was like, oh,
they just set records. It was the best offense we've
ever seen at He's the MVP, So that would suggest
that that was a personnel issue. Now, on the other hand, yes,
Brady is exacting, and you know there may be some

(35:45):
merit in if he doesn't trust you, you get buried.
But I would tend to say that they the Patriots
were not exceptionally aggressive what it can to getting elite
talent at that position. And when they tried to get
elite talent to kill Harry Chad Jackson, the infamous draft

(36:09):
pick that you know, you looked at them and said, yeah,
there's something else wrong. Like in Chad Jackson's case, I
think he was like a knucklehead, putting it charitably. I
don't know what's going on with Harry. I haven't been
you know, we had a year off basically of access,
so but you know I heard for twelve years a

(36:31):
very justifiable you know, I went eleven to five with
that Castle, and we went three to one with Jimmy
and Jacoby Brissette. And that's true. But Tom Brady just
left with in an offseason designed to make what he
was specifically doing impossible because he was going to a

(36:52):
new team with no offseason or preseason, and took the
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to a resounding sup We're both triumph,
beating Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and Patrick Mahomes. A logged
the way, while the Patriots flamed out. So I would
say at this point the any Belichick versus Brady argument
has skewed a little a little the other way. I'm

(37:15):
just saying, after twelve years of Castle. By the way,
Brady was pretty testy on the uniform changed. This may
I go on a rat here, This is great. There
was a playoff game. I want to get the year right.

(37:35):
I think it was. I want to say twenty eleven,
but I'm gonna have to look this up. But the
Patriots were losing to the Ravens at home. I think
maybe it was in Baltimore. Patriots were losing to the Ravens.
I think it was at home. It was looking bad,
and then all of a sudden they started running this

(37:56):
really weird formation. Might have been later than twenty eleven,
but anyway, Shane Vereen is lined up in the slot,
but he's not eligible, but some other guy is eligible,
and they're covering Shane Vereen as you would normally cover
number thirty four in the slot, and the refs. It

(38:16):
happened fast, and the refs are supposed to slow it
down at that point and explained every play to John
Harb on the sidelines. Okay, so this is what they're
doing here. It's technical, it's remember illegal, but you need
to know this. And the refs were so caught off
guard it like Bill found a loophole in the rules,
and the refs were so caught off guard that they

(38:37):
just ran through. And it turned the game around and
the Patriots. What the playoff game. I'm gonna google the
year in a second, and I remember such bs And
it was technically legal. It was more on the refs
to have regulated it in a way they didn't. But
the spirit of it, I thought was just garbage. And

(38:59):
so the irony of Tom Brady, the recipient of Shane
Breen lining up number thirty four ineligible in the slot,
is now whining because, oh no, I'm not gonna know'e
number seventeen is a linebacker or safety? Really, bro, Like,
I'm gonna in fact, I hope I'm on NFL network soon.
I hope that they let me rant. I just that

(39:22):
is unbelievable to be, of all humans to whine about this.
It is amazing that the recipient of that gift from
the refs of the football gods would be the one
to draw attention to it. Is amazing. So pivot to

(39:44):
John Gruden. I worked with him and I thought he
was a great broadcaster. I have this belief having talked
to general managers through the years, NBA, Baseball, NFL don't
let coaches into the personnel rooms. They fall in love
with players. You got to fall in like with him,
and I saw Gruden on television, Randy Johnny Manziel should

(40:07):
have been the number one pick. It's like, dude, half
the teams took him off their half. The teams took
him off their f and board like he was just
small and erratic. And NFL dot Com did a piece
on GM's in the last five years of the draft
and Gruden was last. And if you look at the
picks he got from Khalil Mack and Amari Cooper, four
of those five are nothing. Burgers Jacobs is a nice

(40:30):
running back, but you could have gotten a good running
back in the second, third, or fourth round. Is Gruden
to this point, we know he's not getting fired, but
how close are you to just saying he's over his skis?
I mean, no coach in the NFL that has been
five hundred or worse for three straight years except Gruden
still employed. Are we just buying into it because we

(40:50):
like Gruden. That's the same column that had Chris Ballard
number one, which you know, given my earlier statements, one
I mean like, is John Schneide or not number one?
I'm sorry, you know there are a lot of arguments
to be made. But listen, this is why I am
a John Gruten die hard because again being old, what

(41:13):
he did in Oakland the first time, I think is
underappreciated in retrospect. That culture was so bad, so dysfunctional,
so toxic. For all the great things Aul did in
the past, he had created a horrible situation where the
rafts are against es, the where old against es. It's

(41:35):
just everything about the Raiders was bad. It was an
almost impossible place to succeed. And as a very young coach,
John Gruten came in and he didn't just win there,
he changed all of that, that whole vibe. He got
them to stop being conspiracy theorists no offense. He got

(41:57):
them to stop whinding, put their heads down, be tough,
fight creates something and was a tough rule away probably
from you know, getting them to the super Bowl before
he left, and an Al Davis weird ego, you know
block where he should have had a contract extension and

(42:18):
he should have stayed. So that to me always sticks
with me. What he did that first time more than
what he did at Tampa, which is really cool that
he won that super Bowl against his former team with
a team that he walked into. But what he did,
Oklu was real and it was one of the more
striking things I've seen. So yeah, he was a really
good broadcaster. He won a super Bowl in Tampa. But

(42:41):
that to me is why you believe in John Bruden.
Now it's the NFL, like you know, Yeah, if you
don't win this year, you're probably getting fired ten year
contract or otherwise. No matter how much the owner loves you,
he might not because of that weird specific situation. We've
seen very recently that that owner, when he believes it's
something you've been most people see it and go that

(43:06):
seems like a weird thing to believe in. He might
dig in and just say, well, I'm keeping it this way.
So that's my anology. Well, well, Eric Mangini argues, he said,
listen like you. He looks at Gruden's pass with his
Super Bowl and the turnaround in Oakland and He also
says this, he's gotten better all three years, and they're

(43:30):
better than Denver. And the Chargers have a rookie coach,
and if they finished second this year and make the
playoffs and they were close last year, then we're all
going to go at work. So Maninie's theory is, don't
give up on the Raiders yet. They've got a quarterback,
they've got some nice skill people. They really need a
rush in. Bill Romanowski said this week he likes Gruden,

(43:52):
but he said, man, you give up a Khalil Mack,
you may never get that again for the next decade.
Maybe that was a mistake, but Manginie's in or corner
that let's just wait one more year. If they finished
second and it's it's certainly possible, then I'm I guess
right now, I'm just a cynic. I'm a cynic because
I think he was he was a great broadcaster. Left

(44:13):
for a long time, and I think in the NFL
and in tech, it's hard to leave for a decade.
It's really hard. No, I mean, it's people have a
right to be cynical. I think I'm I'm you know
that that moment is imprinted on me. Having been close
to it, but it's certain. I mean, look, if you're
if you're just objectively saying, well, let's look at Anthony
Lynn and John Gruden's last three years, you'd say, well,

(44:35):
Anthony Lynn, despite all the close losses last year, had
a more impressive last three years. But he's now an
offensive coordinator for a guy who believes in fighting decaps
and kicking people in the teeth. But the other guy is,
you know, maybe not even not the hot seat. So yeah,
I mean it's I believe in him, but I grant anyone,

(44:58):
including you, the right to be duly cynical. At this point,
this was good. So you were very critical of Chris Ballard,
a lot of pushback your pro Gruden. You were very
nice to Brady, then you whacked him. This is exactly
silver why I bring you on. You gave me everything today.

(45:18):
Your palette. You've got just this wide ranging palette that
I love. One more question, because we gotta let you go.
There's rule changes in the NFL, and this is what
they're prone to do. NFL made a couple of tweaks.
They made it easier to recover an on sidekick. I
agree with that. They're gonna be a little harsher on taunting.

(45:42):
That's a point of emphasis you don't like. Okay, so
I got a reaction. So what is it meaning? Grow up? Man?
These are grown man? Like? Oh my god, did you
see did you see what Dadarius Smith did when he
sat Jack Prescott? That might hurt his feelings? Man? Like? Like? Really? Like? Stop? Now?

(46:08):
This is the rule I wanted to see adopted. And
I don't know if it was the perfect role, but
some version of it. But I agree on the outside kick.
The one that I wanted the most and that didn't
happen by far is the coach hiring proposal that the
Bills tried. And I don't know if it was the
perfect manifestation of it, but what the Pagolas and the

(46:30):
Bills suggested was this, no interviews till after the conference
championship game for any head coaching opening, and no hires
till after the Super Bowl period. Now you still have
the wink nod agreements in between, I'm sure, but slow
it down, make it more level, impact the playoff teams less,

(46:53):
and the and their coaches right, and give and give
the enemies and the Brian Day balls of last year
for example, give them gift teams a little bit less
of an excuse to make quick hires. You know, remember
two years ago, Kevin Stefanski's team, the Vikings as the
offensive coordinator faced Robert Sala's team, the forty nine Ers

(47:14):
at the defensive coordinator. Robert Sali's unit manhandled Kevin Stefanski's
unit and the game ended, and naturally the Clayflood Browns
were like, we want the guy who's the unit got manhandled. Why, well,
maybe they wanted Stefanski. Anyway, it proved to be a
good hire, or they were like, we want the available one.
We don't want the guy who's going to be stuck

(47:35):
working for three more weeks as Robert Sali was staffs
getting poached. We want to hit the ground runnings. So
I don't know if the Pagola proposal was the perfect one,
and I think they're going to keep studying this, but
that's the that's the energy I was looking for out
of the rule Champs. Very good work by you, Yeoman Effort.

(47:57):
I really appreciate this. Mike Silver's very small art guy,
and you're very tied in Silver. I like that you're
not one of these lazy guy that's mailing it in.
You're all a joint. My daughter and I have a podcast,
to Pass It Down podcast. It's available on all major platforms.
Someday I will I will try to hit you up

(48:18):
for an apparent. Here's the thing. I know you, and
I know I know how you are. You will bring
it so it'll be effortless, but you'll bring it so
hard on that that I feel sorry for the next guest.
It's gonna be like following Hendrix at Monterey, Like who
who are? Like? We are not following him? He just burned.

(48:43):
He just sacrificed his electric guitar with lighter fluid and
burnt it on the stage. Literally, And no, we are
not coming up and playing. You know, can't explain to
open our show. We're not going on. You're the best buddy.

(49:04):
All right, let's bring in Chad Millman, chief content officer,
my friend of the Action Network. So this is interesting.
I saw something this week, so I called Fan Duel.
I said, FanDuel, give me over unders because I just
saw another company put them up and they said, we
do it after the draft, which is probably the smarter

(49:25):
way to do it because there are teams. I mean
if Carolina got the best left tackle in this a
top corner, I would give him another win. I mean,
I do think you can improve in the draft. I
don't think you can go from bad to playoff. But
there are teams you know we're gonna have a real preseason,
so unlike last year where rookies basically didn't make an
impact until October and November, so fan duel waits till

(49:48):
after the draft to do their over unders. But I
will say this, I saw I have two teams I
feel very strongly about. I want to talk for a
second about Sa Francisco the Niners. So the overunder is
in that like ten win space, and I feel like
I'm not betting on the Niners. I'm betting on Garoppolo's health,

(50:13):
of which three of the last four years in the
toughest division in football, he's hurt by September. And I thought,
when I bet the ten wins over under on San Francisco,
really I'm just betting this. Can he stay healthy because
I don't think any rookie quarterback in that division is
going to flourish as a rookie, And so I thought

(50:34):
the forty nine ers, if ten's the number, and I'm
not sure what you think the numbers should be on
the forty nine ers. Give it to me if you
think there's a number. I actually think that's a great under.
Bet your thoughts. I am a huge fan of the Niners,
and I do think I think ten is the right number.
I'm seeing a consensus line of ten and a half,

(50:56):
so I would be comfortable betting over because of what
you just said about Garoppolo. Every time he plays, they're
a good team. Then you have Kyle Shanahan playing with Garoppolo,
who Shanahan is a master at game planning and scheming.

(51:18):
You cannot be unimpressed with what he did last season.
Sometimes it seemed like he was having more fun playing
third stringers and competing in just about every single game
then he might have had when they were dominating on
their way to the super Bowl, because it plays to
his strengths of just putting the players out there that

(51:40):
he wants to that that he has to play, and
coming up with a scheme that is so good and
so much better than anyone else he is playing against.
I thought you saw last year the real delta between
Kyle Shanahan as a coach and Sean McVay, who had
been the genius two years prior, because Kyle Shanahan was
so good with such a depleted roster. And I think

(52:04):
you get Jimmy g back. I think you get Bosta
back on the defensive line. I think you're gonna be
He's They're gonna be a much stronger team. And I
don't care what the Rams have added. I don't care
that Matthew Stafford is there now. He is not someone
who would scare me. Is someone else in that division?
I love them in that division? All right? Okay, here's
the other one, Millman. So the number of the number

(52:30):
on the Patriots hovers around nine and a half. What
would it be for you? I've got the I think
the Patriots are at eight, you know, ok here we go,
so here it is? Yeah, okay, I think it's the
second best over on the board. Here's why they were
a player from eight and eight. So people say Cam

(52:52):
Newton wasn't good. Cam Newton got COVID and the following
two weeks he was awful down the stretch. He was
not awful. What has Belichick owned in his career? Young
quarterbacks twa twice. Zach Wilson twice, and he has given
Josh Allen fitz cam now gets the second year in

(53:13):
a system eight players opt in. They have significantly upgraded
at tight end and at least are better at receiver.
This is a team that was a play from eight
n eight. The quarterback got COVID seventeen game schedule. Even

(53:33):
if they're not a super Bowl team, and I do
not believe they are eleven and six, that's six losses
for Belichick all the opt ins. He's going to have
two essentially rookie quarterbacks. He has owned rookie quarterbacks. I
love the Patriots over Oh my god, this is such

(53:55):
a terrible take. Oh my god, I list to your brilliant,
brilliant segment. I was in the car driving which one
I'm gonna tell you last week where you broke down
the value of playing certain teams at certain times of
the year and that's how you will get to your

(54:16):
win totals and that's how you will get into the playoffs.
I thought, I totally thought it was brilliant. I will
tell you my fourteen year old in the car had
some quibbles with it, and we could talk about that offline.
I don't want to take it. I don't want to
take it too deep right here criticizing your segment. I
thought it was great. You are looking at only the positives. Ay,
they didn't significantly upgrade at tight end. They got better

(54:37):
from being really really bad by signing a couple guys
who they're probably over paying for it. Number one, number
two Cam Newton was terrible, terrible, terrible, and even when
he was better at the end of the year, he
wasn't more accurate. He wasn't better at throwing the ball downfield.
He was just scoring a lot of touchdowns from inside
the five running the ball. Also, this defense not very good,

(55:00):
not improving. They are middle of the PAC team in
the draft. They are not going to get some high
profile player who's going to save them. Bill Belichick, great coach,
can't argue it, but he does not have the talent.
And don't even talk about they got better at wide receiver.
They are as mediocre at wide receiver as any other
team in the NFL. They are. They are the definition

(55:22):
of average in every single way. And basically what you're
betting on here, what you're betting is that Bill Belichick
can coach them to two more wins than they otherwise
would be expected to get, and I don't think he
can do that with the talent he has in the
field in that division. By the way, two was a
year removed from being a rookie fully healthy with a

(55:44):
brilliant coach in Brian Flores. You can say what you
want about Josh Allen. This could be a regression to
the mean year for the Bills, but I still think
their defense is so much better than what they played.
Sean McDermott is such a good coach. This is a
team loaded with playmakers. I am not going to bet
on the Patriots to come away with say, five wins

(56:06):
in their division, which is what I think they would
need to get to ten wins. Interesting take all, right,
here's another one. Okay, So I was talking to a
guy in Vegas. They allow gambling there, and he said,
you know, Mike Zimmer's a way better coach than you.

(56:27):
Guys think that Zimmer. He had him rated his either
third or fourth power rating for a coach. He really
thinks Zimmer's great. And I thought about you, I thought, well,
and he said, listen, last year they lost guys in
free agency. The GM's weird a little quirky. They just

(56:47):
they couldn't stop anybody in a division with Naggie's a
clever coach, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Staffer's. It wasn't great. You
have to have a pass rush on that division. Blah
blah blah whatever. So where do you rank Zimmer? Give
me on your power ranging rankings for coaches. Is Zimmer
underrated and who was overrated? Zimmer definitely underrated. I'm actually

(57:08):
a huge Mike Zimmer fan. I think that whoever you
were talking to in Vegas is a wise guy. And
I think what you saw last year with the Vikings
wasn't just and I'll get to the underrated overrated, but
it wasn't just the fact that that they lost so
many players in free agency, is that there was no
preseason and where a guy like Zimmer thrives is bringing
together new players and putting in a scheme, especially on defense,

(57:30):
which is his specialty, and getting them to meld together.
And so the Vikings were terrible in the first month
of the year last year because that was basically their
preseason and they were figuring it out. And then you
saw as they got out of their by they became
a much better team, and all of a sudden people
were saying, Hey, this is a Super Bowl contending team.
Then they got injured and they couldn't really compete anymore,

(57:52):
and so all of a sudden, they sort of lost
the momentum that they had because they didn't have the
death and they didn't start with the training camp that
they needed to bring the team to get other I
would be very high on the Vikings heading into the year,
and I'm very high on Mike Zimmer. I think he's
an incredible coach. The Vikings are at eight and a half.
I can see them getting two wins against the Bears.
I can see them getting two wins against the Lions.

(58:14):
I can see them splitting with the Packers. I think
last year what happened with the Packers that was a
little bit of some freakiness. So I could definitely see
them getting five wins out of their division and then
you know, by the way eight and a half out
of seventeen games, I can see the Vikings getting to
nine wins. Other coaches that I think are coach that
I think completely overrated. Cliff Kingsbury terrible, terrible, terrible coach.

(58:39):
He is a guy that betters refuse to bet on
because he cannot win late in the year, when his
team doesn't have to make adjustments, when his team can
only rely on talent, when his team can just be
focused on what they do offensively in the first five
six games of the year fantastic, when they've been figured out,
he can't adjust. It's what happened at Texas Tech, where

(58:59):
his team would always fade at the end of the year.
You saw it with the Cardinals. This was a team
that a lot of people were thinking, Oh my god,
they could win the Super Bowl, Oh my god, Kyler
Murray so great, can be a candidate for MVP, and
then they fade. Ron Rivera can't You cannot rate him
high enough? Right What he did with that Washington team
last year, of the decisions he made amazing, amazing, and

(59:22):
I don't think he gets enough credit. Right, Like, if
you say who are the best coaches in the NFL,
people are gonna say Andy Reid, They're gonna say Bill Belichick,
maybe they'll say Sean Payton, maybe they'll say Mike Tomlin.
But they really should be talking about Brian Flores. They
really should be talking about Ron Rivera, who's been doing
it for years, and it's the reason there's a reason

(59:44):
he was not fired for a long time in Carolina.
That team always played consistent and now he's bringing the
same principles to Washington. Where do you, guys land on Gruden?
Is he worth a pointer or is he hurt you?
He's terrible, just terrible. It's like that team, that franchise
is a mess, and he gets you attention because it's

(01:00:06):
Gruden and he's won a super Bowl and he's chucky
and he was on ESPN for god knows how long.
But he's not a coach anyone believes in. He's not
a guy who's putting in a scheme where everyone's thinking, wow, yeah,
this is something I can get behind. And we saw
last year like it was never a game, it was
never a team where you felt really comfortable betting on them. Yeah,
it's interesting his teams evaporate late with Kingsbury. Your belief

(01:00:31):
is that he just doesn't adapt. He's not smart enough
to adapt. Gruden's teams melt late. Now, they didn't when
he was in Oakland. The first time they didn't. In Tampa,
they got that wasn't a problem. Is there any reason
for sort of the freefall post Thanksgiving? Is it just
lack of depth, that's still a really weak roster. Yeah,
I think it's a weak roster, and I think there

(01:00:53):
are a lot of in a lot of ways. He's
not adjusting either, and there's not enough talent on that
team for them to go through a season not adjusting
and then finding holes. But also they make some strange decisions,
right They signed Kenyan Drake to back up Josh Jacobs.
Josh Jacobs one of the most productive players in the NFL.

(01:01:15):
Why are you signing a running back to take take
carries and take possessions away from one of the players
who actually is one of your most powerful and potent
offensive weapons. So I just don't understand what their personel
moves are. Sometimes I think we both agree it's a
quarterback head coach league, and I look a lot. I
look at a lot. You know, the Bills fan duels
got the Patriots plus three ninety to win the AFCs,

(01:01:35):
the Bills one fifty five, Dolphins plus three twenty ahead
of them. But I wonder what you do how to
betters look at the Chargers where you have no idea
until probably October what you're getting from this coach. You
can go off the fact that the offensive line will

(01:01:56):
be upgraded. There's no question about that. Corey Linsley. They're
going to go get Elijah Vera Tucker if he's available
in the first round. They need a corner and a
couple more offensive linemen. How I mean, what do you do?
How do you at the Action Network make a line
for the Chargers in their opening week? Well, look, I

(01:02:16):
bet the Chargers future to win the Super Bowl, and
you always got to take a flyer. And some of
the things you just mentioned are the reasons why they
are going to get healthier and get better on the
offensive line. They are going to get better just by
virtue of better decision making. Anthony Lynn was a horrible

(01:02:40):
decision maker who cost them several games with poor clock management,
with poor play calling at the goal line. It was
really kind of dreadful to see. And they were winning
in spite of what their coaching staff was doing. They
were winning because Justin Herbert was so good. They were
winning because they have so much talent offensively, and they
were winning by the way, they were missing some of

(01:03:02):
their best defensive player in Drwin James Right, he didn't
even play the entire year. So I look at that
team and I think quarterback who was preternatural, immature, playing
in a tough system with really bad coaching around him,
and just willing the ball down the field into the
right spots. I see a defense that is getting significantly
better just by getting its best player back and its

(01:03:24):
best playmaker back in the back seven, and an offensive
line that is going to improve through the draft. So
I am very high on this team. The one wild
card is going to be, hey, they got a rookie
coach who really only proved it for one season as
a defensive coordinator with the Rams. But I'm willing to
take a flyer on that because I think there's so
many other elements in play, and we have seen coaches

(01:03:45):
in the Sean McVay vane who have come on and
coached really well in their first season. So there's less
of a fear for me with rookie coaches than I
think there's been in the past. So I'm a draft nick.
I like high school football recruiting. I'm into all this stuff,
talk more draft than I think any talk show host
in the country. I have for fifteen years. I'm totally
into it. I don't necessarily think you get significantly better

(01:04:10):
post draft, but I do think they're teams, and the
Chargers could be one that if they land the right
left tackle and a corner, it's a really special team.
I think Carolina is interesting. They have a very solid
old line, but they're bad at left tackle. If Piney's
sewell falls to them with Darnold, this turnaround maybe quicker
than we think. They're weak at corner and left tackle,

(01:04:31):
they're okay everywhere else. And I really believe in Matt rule.
Is there a team to you that you really chad?
You look at this draft and you think this is
a team. You know. I had somebody the other day say,
you guys are selling the Cowboys. If they could get
Patrick certain or a really good corner, they just have
to be because of Dan Quinn to Mike Nolan, like,

(01:04:54):
if they're just schematically stronger and they can just clean
up the secondary, Jalen Smith is healthy, it's not a
bad football team in that awful division. Don't be shocked
if they win eleven. So I just want from your prism.
Is there a team you look at and think the
draft could really change the way I look at them? Yeah? Look,

(01:05:16):
I think the team you mentioned in Carolina, but not
because of what they might do with what you just said.
I think they might take Kyle Pitts, the tight end
from Florida. And if you give Sam Donald a talent
like that, who when's the last time the tight end

(01:05:36):
was drafted in the top ten and came out with
this kind of talent and this kind of hype who
a lot of people are talking about as being a
pseudo wide receiver right six six two forty six pounds.
There's a really good opportunity because it's very possible that
the Falcons might go with justin fields and number four,
which means that Pitts is dropping down to eight. That's
a great safety valve for Zam Donald, and I agree

(01:05:59):
with you. I love Matt Rule. I thought the way
that the Panthers played last year was so indicative of
incredible coaching and a spirit that he imbued in that
team throughout the entire year. So they're a team to
me that I think can get better really really fast,
especially if we're talking about a division where obviously you've

(01:06:23):
got the Bucks, but then you're talking about the Saints,
who you don't know what you're getting without Drew Brees
and you're talking about you're talking about, Oh my god,
I just forgot oh the Falcons. Who I'm still I'm
never going to be sold in the Falcons. I think
they are probably one of those teams that will always
under deliver as long as Matt Ryan is the quarterback.
And I know they've got a new coach coming in,

(01:06:44):
but it's just cultural to me, and so I like
what the Panthers could do with someone like Kyle Pitts
or I want to shift to the NBA because I
think it's really interesting. Last year was a bubble. The
bubble was bizarre. For the first time in my life,
young teams, the Lakers being the exception, outplayed veteran teams

(01:07:05):
in the playoffs. That had never happened in my life.
Young teams evaporate in the playoffs the veteran players, the
refs allow more physical play, warrants more wins, and generally
older players been in that NBA wait room for years,
can manipulate the refs dog young teams. Last year in

(01:07:25):
the bubble was different. Older players, married kids, hated being
away from their families. Multiple veteran players said they were
dealing with they were depressed. They didn't like the bubble
and young teams in the bubble it had an AAU feel.
You play, you go back to your room, you watch
some TV video game, it had an AAU feel. So

(01:07:46):
outside of the Lakers, old teams eroded, young teams played great.
This year is different. It's the strangest year ever. It's
the best offensive year in league history, the worst defensive year.
Why condensed schedule players are hired condensed schedule more veteran
players with nagging injuries just take games off. So what

(01:08:06):
you're seeing is these weird spikes from younger teams, healthier
teams in the regular season. But I think the veteran teams,
the Durants will come back, Harden lebron A d Ben Simmons,
and they'll dominate the playoffs. We'll go back to my
entire life. So when you look at this odd year

(01:08:27):
where Phoenix is a number two seed and we're falling
in love with the Brooklyn when do you look at
this year, the condentsed schedule and say stop sign it's
going to be a Laker year. Just go back to
what we depend on. Or do you think for the
second year in a row, it will be a quirky

(01:08:47):
postseason based on we're still dealing with a pandemic. I
think that's a great question, and I love the way
you framed this. And the Suns are the exact team
that pops into your head. And the reason why I
think they're a little bit different is because of Chris Paul,
and what Chris Paul brings as one savvy veteran is

(01:09:11):
worth three or four veterans on any other team. And
the other thing about the Lakers that makes them feel
less than automatic to me is the fragility of Lebron.
And it's preposterous to say that, but Anthony Davis has
been in and out of the lineup. Lebron now extended

(01:09:33):
time out of the lineup. That could easily happen again
during the playoffs, because during the playoffs, you're still going
to be playing a lot of games, and you're going
to be playing games frequently. There's going to be more travel.
It's going to be a very challenging schedule, not unlike
what we've seen in a condensed season. All that said,

(01:09:54):
All that said, right now, the Nets are two and
a half to one to win the title. The Lakers
three and have to won. The Clippers six to one,
the Bucks seven and a half to one, the Jazz
are eight to one, and then you've got the Sixers
at twelve to one. I would one put my money Clippers, Lakers, Nets, Sixers.

(01:10:19):
I'm not a buyer on the Bucks. Coach Bud to me,
the past couple of years has just not shown the
willingness to adjust and the way they play defense. They
they pack everybody in and they give up way too
many three pointers. It's a three point league. They're going
to play a team that gets hot, and they're gonna
play a team like the Sixers that have multiple three

(01:10:39):
point shooters. So I do not look. I don't not
look at the Bucks as a team that I see
getting advancing to the finals and winning. But I do
see to your point it being a veteran team that
is the Nets, Lakers, Clippers, Sixers. Yeah, I don't buy
the Nets. I don't think you can solve your issues
in the postseason, and they Harden and Kyrie have essentially

(01:11:01):
played four games together. I just I think chemistry matters.
I also, we've got to be honest about k D.
He's another injury away from being kind of garoppolo ish like,
it's like we just have to acknowledge he can't stay healthy.
Just who he is. You know. The other night I
was watching watching the Nets game, and I was watching

(01:11:25):
it with my kid, and I saw kd you know,
standing on the sidelines, and I said to my kid,
I go, does he even play in the NBA anymore?
Is he just like a permanent fixture? Is he coached? Now?
What is he doing? He sounded for like one game
and then he's done. Yeah, you know, it's it's funny.

(01:11:45):
I said this on the air this week. The reason
Lebron and Ad work Lebron's a leader and a d
likes to be led. Kevin Durant needs to be led.
But he thinks he's a leader exactly, and that's problematic.
Steve Kerr and Steph Curry were great leaders. That's why
I thought him jettison jettisoning the Warriors was a problem.

(01:12:10):
It was perfect. He thinks he's the guy, but he's not.
He's what he is. He needs to be led. Anthony
Davis understands that there are very few guys. Ryan Rusilo
talked about it this week. There's about four guys in
the league that have leadership emotional and physical kind of

(01:12:31):
leadership DNA and they want it. They want to talk
to the media, they want to deal with the criticism.
Lebron Chris Paul, Steph Curry. I think Jimmy Butler's underrate.
I think Jimmy Butler changes the temperature of both ends
of the floor and your locker rooms. Kevin Durant doesn't
even even with the Warriors. It was a perfect setup.

(01:12:52):
Steph Curry selfless, Clay Thompson, Draymond played the d Steve
Kerr played in the league. He couldn't get along with anybody.
He's so fragile. You can't be fragile as a leader.
I mean, Brady got shit on by Belichick every Monday
and Tuesday. You can't be fragile as a leader. You
don't have to be brilliant. Not every leader's brilliant, but

(01:13:13):
you gotta deal, you know the blow. If you run
the UFC in your Dana White, you're getting heat constantly.
And I just don't think Katie can handle it. I
think a d knows he can't handle it. I think
Katie thinks he can, and then he's on his burner
account on Twitter freaking out right, exactly exactly. You know
what's fun. I went to the Warrior Celtics game Saturday

(01:13:37):
night in Boston, my first game since the pandemic. Steph
had forty seven. Jason Tatum had forty plus. Watching Steph
from the warm up through the first quarter, through sitting
on the bench, communicating with his teammates, talking to coaches,

(01:13:59):
what he does on the floor, or like seeing him
up close, it is such a joy to watch. And
you see by the way I would put Jason Tatum,
he is climbing into that rank. Look but he is.
He is a six ten soon to be six to eleven,
twenty one year old, freaking nature right. He can do
anything on the court, and it is just pure joy
to watch guys like that play. You don't get that

(01:14:21):
same joy watching Katie. You just don't, don't. You don't
you appreciate it. He's brilliant when he when he did
come back, he went eight for eight in that first
game back, making every shot literally just looked unstoppable. But
it has an entirely different effect on you as a fan,
And to me, it's got nothing to do with his personality.

(01:14:42):
It's just sort of there's a way players carry themselves away,
they feel when the way you interact with them when
they're on the court, and sometimes he just doesn't feel happy.
I think that's well put. I feel the same way
watching him. It's a fairly joyless experience. Yeah, it's precise,
it's surgical, it's perfect, it's it's master craftsmanship. But I

(01:15:08):
don't know, I want some love. I like, let me
watch Lebron all day, Like I watched Lebron play. Even
Russell Westbrook, who has basically trivialized the triple double, he
has turned it into a trash stat because he's done
it for the past five years and almost to the
point where it loses its import because he's doing it
on losing teams. But to watch him play is just

(01:15:32):
just pure speed and adrenaline. It's great. All right, Chad Millman,
I hope you enjoyed our Friday podcast. I'm gonna go
to the Action Network place my bet. What is your
over under on the Browns win total. I'd have to
go back and check, but I think they're probably at
about nine. And I would say that here, you know

(01:15:52):
what I gotta right in front of me. Hold on
one second, I want to make this to my bet
of the Week on the Action Network. Really, that's fun.
The Browns are I was right on it. The Browns
are at nine and a half. I would take the
over because I do feel like we saw a lot
of positive steps with them last year. And I'm a
huge Kevin Stefanski fan. Hey, by the way, you mentioned
Dana White. I know you had him on this week
and there was a great quote where he said he

(01:16:14):
basically believes the media is full of shit. I gotta
tell you a story when you know men. Ever, in
many books, several bestsellers. One of them is the autobiography
of Chuck Adell. I was the as told to write
around his book. And Chuck Ladell not a big talker.
And when I met him, it was two thousand and

(01:16:34):
eight something like that, maybe two thousand and six. It
was right at the height of his fame. He had
just lost a rampage, but he had this huge book
deal that we were working on, and Chuck like told
me nothing right. So the only people who told me
anything were the two women he had had babies with,
who we had very close relationships with, and Dana White.
So about once every four weeks, I would call Dana,

(01:16:56):
and Dana would give me the greatest Chuck Ladell stories,
all of which I put in the book. He is
so fun to talk to us. Why the podcast was
so good? Like unabashedly afraid to say anything. He is
a guy who does not give a flying f I
love him. He's yelled at me before. He got mad

(01:17:18):
at me one time a long time ago, and then
I saw him like a couple months later at a
steakhouse in Vegas and we laughed it off. What I
love about Dana, and I'm really big into this. I'm
not a fan of passive aggressive people. If you're pissed
off at me, tell me, let's just have it out.
And Dana, if he's mad, will tell you and then

(01:17:40):
he's over it. He holds no grudges, he doesn't care.
He and Connor McGregor have had bad days. I always
appreciate people that can confront either their fears, their demons
or their enemies and just get it out, yell, scream,

(01:18:01):
and move on. And that's Dana to a t. Dana
is the opposite of Kevin Durant exactly. Way to close
it all right, Melman, Good seeing you, a brother, all right,
that was a great hour. I'm gonna be honest, that's

(01:18:23):
one of my favorite podcasts ever. At The Volume Sports, Twitter, Instagram,
follow us, rate review, and subscribe. Yeah, we also have
a YouTube channel, The Volume Sports. Gotta be honest with you,
we're getting powerful. You may not want a piece of us.
We are going to go right at everybody. Love what

(01:18:44):
we're doing. Have a great weekend. By the way, don't
forget this weekend. The Prime cuts the best of all
our podcasts. M hm. The Volume

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