April 28, 2021 • 52 mins
On this episode of The Colin Cowherd Podcast, Colin is joined by FS1's First Things First host Nick Wright, who recounts his recent high stakes Vegas poker trip (1:00), explains why he doesn't hedge (11:00), if the Nets are too weak defensively to beat the Lakers in a potential Finals matchup (19:00), what's behind the NBA ratings decline (29:00), if Lamar Jackson has been unfairly criticized (35:00), and if Kyle Shanahan and the Niners are really about to take Alabama's Mac Jones with the #3 overall pick in the first round of the NFL Draft (42:00).
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
The volume. The Colin Cowherd Podcast brought to you by
fan Duel. It's never been easier to play fantasy on
fan Duel. Will he love basketball, golf, soccer or any
fantasy sport. There is a contest for every fan fan
Duel more ways to win. All Right, everybody, it's our
(00:29):
Wednesday morning podcast. Nick writes, We're gonna talk about so
many interesting things. Number one, he just took a massive
life adventure. He took a lot of money to Vegas.
He and I have privately discussed another line of work
which I think he's capable of doing for a living.
He's really good at it. I could never do it.
(00:51):
We're gonna talk about the NBA and the ratings decline,
some thoughts about Mac Jones getting drafted third in my
theories on that. With Nick and I, we talk sports,
we talked life, we talk politics. To me, he's my
perfect podcasting guest. No notes. Let's talk shoot the shit
hopefully the people like it hopefully, and here we go.
(01:18):
All right, And with that, I bring on my friend
Nick Wright. Nick's been joining me on FS one every
Wednesday for about four or five years. He's also the
co host. You know, he's the lead singer for First
Things First, and he's also we can reveal a secret.
It's not really a secret to me, but maybe to
other people. You went to Vegas recently and you were
(01:42):
on Poker after Dark. You and I've been talking about
this for a couple of months, So I don't know
what I'm about to ask you. I do not know
the answers to so I know you took a big
bundle of lettus blood of cabbage before you even asked
the question. When we tell America something true fact about
Colin Cower Concoward once upon a time told me during
(02:03):
an unrelated conversation, Nick, I want you to know something.
Your family is my family. And then he paused and
he was like, what's the scenario where a realistic one
where Nick might need some help, And there's the exact quote.
You ever lose fifty thousand in a weekend, you can
call me and I got your back because he knows
that's in play. This was in play this weekend, these
(02:24):
during this three days of poker. But the fact that
I didn't call you and say uncle Colin and needs
you to do the old wire to the Aria means
it went it didn't go disastrously. I can tell you
that much. And now can you tell me how how
much you took to Vegas? Tell you that ninety ninety
(02:46):
thousand bucks? Yeah, okay, so how did you that's what
you took with you? What did you what did you
bring home? If? Okay, from the poker, if we just
let's just so, I brought ninety with me for poker.
(03:06):
I yeah, I can say this brought home one hundred
and one good poker weekend. Now there's a lot of
other opportunities to gamble in Vegas. Yeah there are. So
here's the thing. So did the full hundred one come
home with me? No, of course not. Do I now
feel like I have carte blanche to stay at the
(03:27):
Aria for life. Maybe it was like that's what we
call building a relationship. That was me in the Aria
getting to know each other. Um, so I so let
me I'll set the context for it. Wednesday and Friday
were cash games with twenty thousand dollars buy ins, fifty
one hundred dollars blinds, and had some Bruce Buffer was
(03:51):
in a game. There was the guy that started Shopify,
which I was like, Shopify, I wonder how good that
company is. I looked it up. I was like, Mark
cap one hundred and sixty seven billion, he's the founder.
I'm like, Okay, maybe don't try to bluff that fella,
because I don't think four thousand bucks gonna scare him.
But then also pros. So Maria Hoe, who's a pro,
(04:15):
played one day. Phil Hellmuth, who's probably the world's most
famous poker player, played two days, and Daniel Negrano, who's
maybe the world's most successful poker player, played And so
Wednesday and Friday were cash games. Thursday was a ten
thousand dollars sit and go tournament where first place got
fifty thousand, second place got twenty thousand, and I Seat
(04:38):
four was Helmuth, Seat five was Meet, six was Negrano.
And I can't What I can tell you is this,
I had a nice long tete, a tete with Phil Hellmuth,
and it will I handled myself well, and I'm Wednesday,
Colin I played. And I can say this because I
(05:00):
don't know what order they're gonna air. Wednesday, I played
the worst poker of my life. I was totally shaken
up by the situation. I didn't think I would be.
I was worried that everyone was coming after me, even
though why would they be coming after me? I played
terribly Thursday I played perfect poker for five hours, and
Friday I played really well, and I'm going to go
(05:20):
back and I'm gonna do it again. It was great.
Do you think do you think you can make a
living playing poker? I think that I think that if
I what you said in the beginning is you know
my downfall. If do I think I could be a
profitable poker player? Yes? Am I a profitable poker player? Yes?
(05:43):
Could I make as much money just playing poker as
I do in my regular life? I would have to
that that would That's a tougher question, right like, and
I'd have to really drill down on it. But also
knowing myself, what is the cost associated with the walk
(06:04):
to the poker room and the walk back from the
poker room, the walk past the sports book, and the
walk past the blackjack tables and those things? Those have
always been you know, you know, we've had an off
and on relationship for twenty years, myself and those pits
and so well, so I think that I could certainly
do more and more than I've done. I mean, I've
been playing I was I've been playing poker for twenty years,
(06:27):
and so i've you know, and I understand the math
of it, and I love it. And so being able
to go up against the best in the world and
see how I could shape up. I'm glad I didn't
get my head handed to me. I'll tell you that much. Well,
it's great. It's funny. You and I are so different
in so many ways, just the way we think. You're
very matthy, I'm not. I like structure. I'm very much
(06:49):
into business. You're really not. You're more creative than I am.
We have but in a weird way, I live through you.
You're like a mobster. You live the life I wish
I had the courage to do, which is go sit,
play poker, hundreds of thousands of dollars, roll the dice.
(07:10):
It's like I watched Tony Soprano. I think, beyond clipping, guys,
what a life. Yeah, if you take that part out,
that's well, that's the that I mean I do. Here's
the thing I think that that that's why mobster movies
will always be successful and people will always like them,
is even though there's a part of your brain that
is like these are totally a moral awful people. There
(07:35):
is a part of the lifestyle that seems so alluring,
no matter your level of success or wealth or anything
in a regular structured life. Just the bands of cash
and the I will do what I want when I
want that type of thing. There is part of at
(07:55):
least I shouldn't say for everyone, but at least for me.
And it sounds like for you that that always has
been attractive to and then and so I mean, that's
why for as long as there's been cinema, people have
enjoyed watching those movies. Yeah, but you're not uncut gems
Adam Sandler intense, No, I'm not. I No, but I
(08:19):
this is where and you and I and we You
and I have talked about this somewhat on the air,
but a lot off the air. This is where I
am very very very thankful that I have my rock,
of my home, of my wife and kids, because I
do think that if not for the responsibility, accountability and
(08:40):
the things that come with being a father and a husband,
that I that I'm always you know, I'd be far
closer to the edge of saying, you know what, let's
take a big shot like a bigger shot than that
is responsible the shot I took this weekend. I don't
want folks to get confused. I ain't got nothing close
to the con hour money. It would have hurt if
(09:02):
I had come home with zero. That would have been
as a that's a long plane ride. That's that's a
twenty six hour, five hour flight back from Vegas. So
it would have hurt, but it wouldn't have been like, well,
I'm ruined, and so you know, I stay within the bounds.
But yeah, I'm probably a little closer to Sandler and
uncut Gems than you are, but I'm not. But I'm not.
(09:24):
You know, nobody goes full Sandler. You don't want to
do that. No, I mean, I've said I have the
ability to twice a year bet five thousand dollars on
a game, and that's it, and I'm totally happy. I
bet on Clemson over Ohio State, and I bet a
ton on Green Bay at Houston last year after they
were humiliated and the line was only four the following
week and I'm like, no, they're gonna dust Houston, and
(09:46):
I was I was okay doing that. I was okay
betting five thousand dollars that the Cleveland Browns will win
more than nine and a half games on the hold
on for the record, Sorry to interrupt you in your podcast.
That is what we in the business call an emotional hedge,
which was you knew deep down there was part of
you that was going to be sad if Baker won
ten games, so at least you could be happy with
(10:09):
the five thousand. So that's an emotional Well. It's interesting
because when I moved to Vegas out of college, I
was a huge college football fan, and I was still
really a fan the last team. I was a fan
of the University of Washington, and so after the first
couple of weekends, you know, I was betting them to win,
and they lost one of the games, and I remember thinking,
got it ruins my weekend. So my team lost and
(10:31):
I lost money, So I wrote about it my first book.
I started doing kind of life insurance where I would
always bet against my favorite teams, so either I won
money or my team won, and I never had a
weekend that was completely lost. They say in Alabama when
the Crimson Tide lose, the commerce goes down in the
state on Monday, like people are shot. So I was
(10:53):
finding myself when I was a true fan. I would
be ruined if the Huskies lost and I bet on them.
So the emotional hedge comments actually true. I do find
from occasion it's better for me if Baker go seven
and ten. But that roster is too good to not
go eleven and six. It just is unless they get
(11:16):
Kansas City early, Green Bay, New England on the road
late and the schedule doesn't work out perfectly. But but
do you ever bet emotionally? Do you ever have emotional hedges? Oh?
I do the opposite of the So the opposite of
the emotional hedge is the maximum pleasure maximum pain. And
that is and I can give you the I have
in the twenty in the you know, this calendar year
(11:38):
of sports, I have two perfect examples of it working
out amazingly and working out terribly. You know, all year
long I was as anti last basketball season Clippers as
anyone could possibly be, and I said all year long,
they are not going to make the conference finals. And
(11:59):
before Nuggets Clippers, I bet on the Nuggets. And when
they were down three games to one, I bet on
the Nuggets more. And they at like thirty two to one,
and they came all the way roaring back and won
the series. That plus, I of course had a future
on Lebron and the Lakers, so that was like perfect
for me. The opposite of that is what happened in
(12:21):
the damn Super Bowl, which you will never let me
forget all year long. I am talking about how Brady
is cooked. And I'm from Kansas City, I'm a Chiefs fan.
I have a ton of Chiefs futures out there. So
going into the Super Bowl, I already had a massive
swing just from my Chiefs futures already my AUNTI you know,
(12:42):
like a career bet as far as me being right
or wrong on Brady and so a wise man, a
smart man would do nothing for the Super Bowl. A
wise man would bet a sizeable amount on Tampa plus
the three and a half, hope the Chiefs win by
three and you win the board. An idiot would just
(13:04):
hammer the Chiefs three at minus three and a half
and just have it just be the worst everything. Just
I'm sad it costs me money. So yeah, that that
is so the emotional hedge or hedging in general. You
got it. So I'll go to black jack quickly, and
we don't have through the whole thing on gambling if
(13:25):
you don't want. But it's the Some people in blackjack
like a twelve against a two. The book says to
hit that, but it's like fifty one forty nine. It's
very close. And if I'm ever playing at a table
and someone says what should I do on that, I
tell them, listen, you're supposed to hit, but it doesn't
really matter. But just do the same thing whatever it is,
(13:47):
be consistent. Decide this whole blackjack run. I'm either staying
on a twelve against the two or I'm hitting a
twelve against the two. Don't go back and forth. That's
how I feel about hedging bets, like I made a
life decision a decade ago that I don't hedge bets.
That if I bet the Chiefs before the year at
six to one to win the Super Bowl, and I
(14:09):
can hedge that bet and lock in a profit of
the equivalent of four to one, I'm not doing it.
I won't hedge bets. Now. You know a lot of
people say, Nick, that's really dumb, and I say, you're
probably right, But I've made the choice, and I just
feel like the moment I hedge is the moment that
you're I'm not supposed to, it's gonna come around the
(14:31):
other way, so I won't do it. So I hedge everything. Yep.
So my whole life I have hedged everything, and I
do believe. So I think there's probably a psychology in
my childhood. Why I hedge? I hedge on everything. You don't.
So if I said, be a psychologist Sigmund Freud for
(14:53):
three minutes, why don't you hedge? Oh? Because part of
what probably part of what I'm looking for is the
emotional pull that comes from the swings, and hedging eliminates
(15:14):
both sides of it. So like I'm so, it's part
of this is finances and trying to outsmart the line
or in poker, outsmart the competition like ego boost or whatever.
But also part of it is there's something in me
that wants to the extremes. My guess is this you.
I don't think either one of us had you know,
(15:37):
the what people would consider like a rough or very
seemingly very difficult upbringing. But I had a very comfortable upbringing.
Aside from my parents getting divorced, which was traumatic for
any child. I had two great parents, both were employed
with good jobs my whole life, a great sister, never
worried about anything really as a kid and as a
(15:59):
teenage gotten a lot of like minor trouble because I
was just an idiot, but never really was concerned about anything.
There was no risk in my life whatsoever. So my
guess is the Sigmund for it is I have found
a way to add that that for some reason I
needed it, which is probably unhealthy. And I found a
way to add that risk to my life because it's
(16:21):
always been so safe for me, you know what I mean,
coming up the way I did. So my guess is
that's the answer. Yeah, And mine is the opposite, which
I grew up in chaos with multiple divorces and thought
I was going to be broke for life. So I
don't want pain, and so I hedge every bet. I
don't want chaos, I don't want broke because I dealt
(16:42):
with that my whole life. I've thought about this. I
hedge every bet. So I'm actually a really I think
I'm a really smart businessman for a broadcaster. Is that
I've done really well. I've hedged all my bets. I'll
never go low. I'll probably never hit the lottery. But
some would argue I've hit that as a broadcaster. But
I'm a bet. I'm a bet hedger. I always you know,
(17:03):
if I if I bet big, I look to bet
against my bet later in the week exactly to hedge it, right,
So like, and that's and your and your businesses you
have you have like diversified your businesses enough, yes, that
that's a natural hedge. Like you have, you have a
natural hedge even within broadcasting by the ability to now
(17:27):
tangibly do at the highest levels television, radio and digital.
That's that's the ultimate hedge against everything is like, as
long as content creation is a thing, it all the
delivery mechanism almost is, you're impervious to the swings of it.
And so that's you know, And so that's the I
(17:47):
think you're right that whatever it is that you know
wires us from a young age sets us on those paths.
And mine is one that is more and and I
would and this is me at my least and my
most seemingly risk averse because what I don't allow is
(18:08):
my own you know, you know the fact that I
haven't gotten therapy for whatever is wrong with me. I'm
not going to allow that to have a negative impact
on what my wife and kids can do. So as
long as like you know what I mean, all of
that stuff is always taking care of, that's kind of
my headges like, I'll make sure that all of this
is filled up and taken care of, and then the
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(18:34):
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Sports Book. That's pretty much a gimme. You know, it's interesting.
I would think, you know, we we both love the NBA.
I lean NFL then NBA. I think you lean NBA
then NFL. But I did think about something that I
want you to respond to, is that Frank Vogel, so
much of the NBA is you know, don't very rarely
(20:01):
did anybody have like in the NFL. Belichick's one of
the few with personnel power and coaching power. Pete Carroll
now in Seattle, has that. Andy Reid never had it
in Philly and doesn't really have it in Kansas City.
He takes the players Brett Veach gets and then so
Frank Vogel, his oh has been great with biggs. Doesn't
(20:22):
love guards, likes physical teams, defense and developing bigs. He
didn't really have that. Roy Hibbert wasn't a transformational talent.
He was an average college player, and yet Frank Vogel
made him into a nuisance for Lebron James and those
series against the Heat. He goes to Orlando again, it's
not a perfect roster for him. What's interesting is he
(20:45):
goes to the Lakers. Now he has Andre Drummond, Anthony
Davis long guard play Lebron James, and it took him
forever to get there. On the other side, Brooklyn Mike
D'Antoni just like scores and guards Steve Nash, that's what
he would know. So in a weird way, the two
most talented teams are Brooklyn and the Lakers. But what's
(21:06):
fascinating the staffs fit perfectly with the rosters. And I
do think if Vogel could pick the team in the
NBA he likes, he would take Anthony Davis, Lebron James,
and Andre Drummond, and Antony would say, yeah, I got
three scores, two great guards, and so I do think
(21:28):
there's a likelihood they get to the finals together. It
is an ultimate chess match, and it'll be It won't
be quick. I mean Miami Heat and a bunch of kids,
and Jimmy Butler took him sick. It would be a
six or seven game series. So that's how I see it.
I do think if Brooklyn gets past Philly, which is
not a great matchup, then you're gonna get a chess
(21:48):
match in the finals. Anything I just said you disagree with, No,
I what I want to drill down on the coaching
part of it for a moment, because I think that
I don't think Brooklyn's going to make the finals, and
I but set aside that opinion. What they need is
(22:10):
at the very least a Frank Vogel type on that staff.
What they need is somebody. It's not only that Brooklyn
doesn't have a single great defensive player on the roster.
They had one in Jared Allen, by the way, but
he was part of the Harden trade. It's not only
(22:30):
that they don't have, like the to me, a traditional
roster configuration as far as bigs, wings and point guards.
It's also that everyone that matters is, as you put it,
focus on one end of the court. They're three best players,
their head coach, and their assistant coach, who is the
(22:53):
most important assistant coach in basketball. D'Antoni is the only
real assistant coach that matters for a contending team. Because
Steve Nash is new to all of this, and that's
not a knock on Nash, but the Antoni's important there.
So the fact that they all are just go, go
go score, score score, and they don't you know, what
(23:14):
they needed really was a defensive big. They didn't get that.
If you can't get the personnel, then maybe find a
coach who can drill on that part of it. They
don't have that either. The Lakers have built, to me,
like the entire coaching staff of Vogel staff around defense,
(23:35):
with the confidence that it is impossible for a team
with Lebron James, certainly a team of Lebron James and
Anthony Davis to be bad on offense, that the offense
will take care of itself when Lebron's on the court.
And so what we need is for everyone else to
care about defense and what you've gotten and Vogel should
(23:55):
get tremendous credit for this. It's a guy like Kyle
Kuzma now bison on defense and bust his ass on defense.
He's like, that's my I understand that is part of
winning in this role for this team, and that's super important.
Markith Morris on a minimum contract like is buying into
those things. So that's where Vogel's been excellent I do
(24:17):
hope we get Nets Lakers in the finals. I don't
think we will, but that is the most it is
the most fascinating for a million reasons that you mentioned
different styles it would have. You could argue, you could
make the argument that lebron KD harden A d are
four of the five best players in the entire league.
(24:39):
And by the way, Kyrie Irving is you know, ten, eleven, twelve,
something like that. So it would the star power be
unbelievable and it would be the ultimate threes versus twos
because the Lakers could get layups almost anytime they wanted,
and the Nets are going to shoot a million high
percentage threes and see who wins. Yeah, I think Philadelphia
(25:00):
stands in the way I think. I think Joe lmbad
is a disruptor. I think Simmons the great defensive guard,
Tobias Harris under Doc plays well. They shoot enough threes.
I do think Philadelphia is a matchup. I don't think
Boston matches up offensively, but I think Philadelphia can match
up on both ends and is a much better defensive team.
Well here's what I think. I think that it's the
(25:21):
one seed is going to have immense importance. Not because
of home court, because we don't even know how many
fans are going to be allowed. Not because of that,
but if you're the two seed and you get Miami
in Round one, Miami this year is not Miami last year,
but they're not going to get swept. They're going to
take a game off you and physically beach up a
(25:43):
little bit. And more importantly, the two seed then has
Milwaukee in Round three. And what Milwaukee is not the
same Milwaukee as last year. They added Drew Holiday and
they got PJ. Tucker during the season. PJ Tuckers played
in big games for the last five years, excellent on defense,
tough as a rock, and we'll hit corner threes. I
(26:05):
don't think Milwaukee will beat either of those teams in
a series, but there is the element of when the
seventy three win Warriors lost to the Caves. They lost
that series for two reasons. One is Lebron had the
greatest three game starts in the history of the league,
and the other is because the Oklahoma City took them
seven the round before, and they were tired and they
(26:26):
were a little gimpie and they had you know, they
had you only have so much to give in this
sprint of the playoffs, and if you're the one seed
and you're playing the winner of Atlanta New York in
round two and the other team is playing Milwaukee, that
is a massive edge. So I just think the one
seed is going to be critically important. I know Philadelphia
(26:49):
thinks it's important. I don't think Brooklyn does, and so
I think Philly's getting up the one seed. And I
think a big part of the Eastern Governmence Finals is
going to be how easy Round two was and wasn't
for those two Another NBA topic, it doesn't really matter because,
as I've tried to tell people who talk about ratings content,
(27:09):
all these networks are starved for content. And so the
bottom line is, it doesn't matter if the baseball ratings
are down or the hockey ratings are down. I mean,
hockey ratings have been terrible forever. They're still getting ESPN
and t n T or TBS to pay form. It
doesn't matter, is it. It could be argued, though it
is a little alarming that the NBA's lost about thirty
(27:32):
percent of TV ratings last two years. There's a I
don't I don't think ratings are ever one thing. I
think cable's going down. I think regular season ratings are
going down. I think even the NFL ratings went down.
I think that's the reality of it. I also think
because of a condensed schedule, more stars are taking off
just getting ready for the playoffs. I would do the
(27:53):
exact same thing. So but but it is. It is
something many have suggested, and I think again, I think
it could be part of it. They've been more aggressive
on social issues and there are some people that go
to sports and don't want to deal with that crap.
As somebody who's an NBA fan active in social opinions,
what do you make It won't affect the bottom line.
(28:14):
They're going to get a massive number for their deal.
That's not the issue. We all know that. But if
I ran the league, I wouldn't love the direction of
the TV ratings. It would give me less leverage than
I want when I go up for negotiation. Why have
they lost thirty percent or roughly? They're about two years
all right, So I do think there is a percentage
(28:38):
of that that has to do with the social issues.
But I also think the people angriest about the social
issues are not diehard NBA fans and those people faintly like, listen, folks,
when you tweet me, this is why I don't watch
the NBA. I wish I could find you, give you
(28:59):
a polygraph and be like, have you watched a game
since John Stockton retired? Like, be honest with me, because
I don't think you have. Like I think a lot.
I don't think the NBA turned off their core customer
by being on the correct side of police violence and
alone social justice. I do think they lost a percentage,
and I think the league decided it's worth it to us,
(29:20):
it's important to our players. We are an overwhelmingly black league,
and we're not going to silence our guys on it,
and said we're gonna lean into it and it'll age
well with history. But I'm sure I don't think that
helped the ratings. I'll tell you what I think hurts
the ratings. I think baseball and basketball are right now
both dealing with and football. This has not happened to
(29:42):
a misalignment of incentives. And by that I mean this
the gms who build the teams and picked the coaches
and picked the strategies. Their job is to win. The
owners and the league league's job is to create an
(30:02):
exciting television product. And as analytics have taught us on
baseball and basketball, not that dissimilar to the evolution of
poker from earlier. There's not a gray. There is a
right way and a wrong way to attack things. That
does give you an edge on the field. It is
(30:23):
not good for television the NBA becoming all threes, free
throws in dunks, just like baseball becoming walk strikeout, home run.
That's not good for TV. And I think that they
the leagues need to have a very hard conversation with themselves.
How do we change our rules to incentivize a more
(30:49):
diversified game play where everyone is not doing the same strategy.
Because that one of the things that is good about
the NFL is it's such a black boy analytically that
guys are trying a bunch of different things, and there
are different styles. It's not as different stylistically as college
football is. People are throwing more in things like that.
(31:10):
But the version of the shift and the opener has
not hit the NFL, and the version of fifty threes
a game and no mid range jump shots has not
hit the NFL. But it has major League Baseball in
the NBA. So you know how much I love the league.
But I think the players are better and I think
(31:31):
the teams are smarter, But it doesn't mean it's a
better product than it was a decade ago because everyone
plays the same style, and how many games come down
to this question who hit more threes? Oh, this team
was seventeen of thirty of thirty six. Oh, this team
got hot, they were twenty one of thirty nine. Will
then they won, and so they got to figure that out.
(31:52):
They have to figure that out. That to me is
the bigger problem is that now in the playoffs, it
figures itself out to a degree because the game slows
down some and there is more nuance. But I think
I don't think it's about Black lives matter being on
the court. I think it's about the fact that everyone
is playing the same style, and I don't think it's
as exciting for some people. You know, I got into
(32:16):
this topic on my show today. I said there's no
perfect husband, wife, political candidate, quarterback. I'm never when I
created the volume, I was never worried about what people
couldn't do. I was trying to find people that can
do things. I knew we were all going to talk
(32:36):
about the same sports, but I wanted people with different angles,
and Jenkins and Jones didn't sound like anybody I knew,
so they can deliver. I'm not asking them to do
play by play. I'm not asking them to host. I'm
asking him and make me laugh and make me think
they did things I can't do. Renee Paquette a keep
(32:57):
to leave Alex Monico. So I was in the can business.
I don't care what you can't do. And I talked
about this on the show. I even talked a little politics.
I said. One of the things that drive drives me
crazy with Democrats. Republicans tend to find a candidate candidate
and if they mostly believe in what he does, he
checks three or four main boxes, then they get in line.
(33:20):
They're not seeking perfection. Democrats don't get in line. They
get in they fall in love, not in line, and
they go, oh, Bet is the best and mayor Peat's
the best. But if they don't agree up and down
the line on virtually everything, he's a bad candidate, and
I'm like, stop, stop it. Democrats drive me nuts this
way that they often eat their own, they eat their young,
(33:44):
They eat their candidates. And my theory and I was
talking about Zion and Lamar was Zion. We have now
been paralyzed by what he can't do. Hit threes. He
is the most efficient score for his age in the
history of the league. Bucky Brooks, I love, but he
suggested they should move off Lamar Jackson and go get
(34:04):
justin Field. And I'm like, he's thirty and four against
the league not named Patrick Mahomes. He's won a road
playoff game, he's twenty four. What he can do, he's otherworldly.
You cannot compare him to Patrick Mahomes. There's one of
those in the world, maybe two. And so kind of
your thoughts on Zion and Lamar, we are stuck in
(34:28):
this well, they don't do it. And my takeaways are
you people nuts? What they do they do better than
any humans on the planet currently. So before I answer that,
I want to respond to your initial political analogy because
I think it's really smart and I think both parties
(34:49):
would be better, would be very well served to take
something from the other in this regard. In my experience,
ardent conservatives or republic Plikans to use your example, they
root for their candidates like a sports team, like I'm
a root for the Chiefs basically, no matter what, like
it's just they're my team. And so there there will
(35:13):
be some people who you know to this day, or
it will be like, Nope, there were weapons of mass
destruction in a rock because they are pot committed buddy,
It's like, nope, I'm all in. On the flip side
to your point about Democrats, there will be Democrats who
it's like a critically important election against an abhorrent candidate.
(35:34):
On the other side, it's like, wow, I don't know
if he doesn't support exactly this, I'm turning on it
and and brutal. It's brutal. It's brutal. And for me, listen,
I'm a I'm a labor Democrat. I came up in
a union household for a guy I and I obviously
deeply care about social issues, but I really care about
(35:57):
the average American worker being able to, you know what
I mean, raise their overall level. When I see when
I see these things, I'm like, we're gonna lose to
the wing night because we're gonna kill our own guy.
So I wish democrats could have a little more. All right,
let's see the big picture, you know what I mean,
and you know, kind of move forward and understand there aren't.
(36:19):
And I also wish that some Republicans could do a
better job of being like, Okay, this guy's accused of
doing what at the mall in Alabama. Okay, I can't
with him like there should be and so that I
agree with that takeoleheartedly. Now I'm Zion and Lamar, I
we of course, this is something that Bill Simmons said
(36:44):
a long time ago, and I just give him credit
because I think he's right. There are certain guys that
are ninety ten guys, and I would argue for a
long part of his career, Russell Westbrooks been one of
these guys. We're ninety percent of the stuff they do
is all but ten percent of the stuff they do
is not only bad, it's glaringly bad. It's like obviously bad,
(37:08):
and we focus all on the tent. So with Lamar,
for example, listen, I think Lamar has been misdiscussed from
the very beginning. People were too critical of him, which
made people too protective of him, which made people It's
like a weird cycle where there's some people act like
he is. There are no holes in his game, and
(37:30):
some people act like he's still has proven nothing even
though he want an MVP. There can be some nuance there.
There is obviously a way to defend Lamar Jackson, which
is if you can, and it's very hard to do,
take away the run. He's going to have some games
where he's just an inaccurate passer, where he is not
(37:50):
great yet at surveying the entire field and throwing the
ball accurately. But that shouldn't be the focus on him
when what he his teammates love him. He is an
excellent leader. He is the most dynamic athlete we've had
at the position since Vic and maybe including Vic. He's
durable despite getting his ass kicked repeatedly. He's always popping up.
(38:14):
He's young, he gets in no trouble. So what we
focus on things he can't do. And it's similar like
you're saying with Zion. Zion's played less than ninety career
NBA games. He scores twenty seven a night. On Shack's
shooting percentage, is he can you give him the ball
(38:35):
to shoot a pull up mid range jump shot. No,
But until somebody shows they can stop him from getting
to the rim. Who gives a damn, and so there
is there's a lot of like concern trolling with some
of these guys, like the Zion. It's like, well, if
this doesn't happen, then in four years, right, if in
four years he's the same player, then you're just gonna
(38:57):
have to accept. Okay, I guess all he's ever going
to be is the ninth best player in the world.
Like he's because he's already a fringe top ten guy.
If he never gets better, he stays there. So yes,
I agree. I think there is too much focus on
for certain guys what they can't do, and there are
certain guys where the opposite's true. I'll use the hey
(39:18):
people think I'm too hard on him. I think the
quarterback of the New York Giants is an example of this.
Everyone there he throws a beautiful deep ball, but he's
bad at everything else. But everyone is like, oh my god,
like look at these traits, these tools, like he can yeah,
but he fumbles more than any player ever. He doesn't
read the field particularly well. I thought he was fast
(39:40):
and had that one really good run then he just
fell down on his own, like, but he's just focusing
on like the one so there are certain guys we
focus on one great skill, and the certain guys who
have a bunch of great skills will focus on the
one bad things, the thing they don't have. You know,
I usually Wednesdays we converge on the we didn't this week.
(40:01):
So I'm gonna throw something else I talked about today
that we probably would have talked about on TV, and
that is the NFL is very much a fear based league.
Last year, the top twenty five picks in the NFL's
first round all played significant minutes. In the NBA, your
top ten picks are often ceiling guys. I'm not going
(40:21):
to get much for two or three years. Joe Lmba's
a classic example, but his ceiling is huge. If you
do that in the NFL the Packers did with Jordan Love.
They're still getting ripped for it because and my theory
is in the NBA that you can be fired as
a coach or at GM. I mean, Dan Tony will
get another job and he doesn't even want to coach
defense or bigs, He'll get another job. Frank Vogel got
(40:44):
fired twice, not only got a good job, got the
best job. The Lakers Lebron Tibbs was like a tire
fire gets the I love stan Bean Gundy commentary on Twitter.
He has not shown me ever that he's a good coach,
and he just keeps getting jobs, just keep so. In
(41:07):
the NBA, there is a sense the GM and the coach. Hey,
it's the process. It's okay, we don't need a guy now.
If he hits big and bead will be a one
or two seed. The NFL it's different. I mean, John
Grun's the only guy with the leash. He has a
Super Bowl and has gotten better in all the years
he's been there, and we're just about done with him.
(41:28):
We're just about done with him. My point is the
Niners don't care about ceiling. Kyle Shanahan's like I'm in
the toughest division easily. The Rams got better, the Seahawks
got better than Arizonna is better. Garoppolo can't stay healthy,
and in four years I have three losing seasons. I
don't give a shit about ceiling. I have to win now.
(41:51):
And Mac Jones had a pro coordinator in college, a
pro coach through the pros and in the SEC face pros,
and for the next three years he'll be Kirk Cousins. Yeah,
I'm number two all time to Patrick Mahomes in the
first sixteen starts for my quarterback, Nick Mullins is second
behind Patrick Mahomes first sixteen starts. And by the way,
(42:12):
the last two times Kyle Shanahan's had a quarterback that's
healthy for a year, Matt Ryan Shanahan, he got to
a Matt Ryan garoppolo, he got to a Nuper Bowl.
So my takeaway is even Shanahan, there's some fear based
mechanism for NFL coaches where my runway if I lose
again because I'm developing Trey Lance the sh trouble here, right,
(42:37):
and so that's that's really fascinating. And I now have
been become resigned to the fact that they are taking
mac Jones. And it's because of the press conference Monday,
when I know everyone was focused on everything Shanahan said.
Shanahan's like, listen, might be Pompey over here. We might
all be dead on Sunday, like I can't hear. The
(42:57):
most interesting part was when John Lynch said, without saying it,
this ain't my pick boys. He said, Kyle's our coach,
He's our offensive coordinator. It's a quarterback genius. I would
be insane not to listen to what who he wants
of that position. Back to me was John Lynch saying,
(43:20):
Kyle's it's all the credit is the right guy. But
also that's his pick. It's his pick because I don't
think they're necessarily the same page there, so I think
they are probably gonna take mac Jones. I also think,
and I tweeted it out Tuesday morning so people can
go check the link. Peter King was in the draft
(43:42):
room with Lynch and Shanahan for their first draft ever
twenty seventeen, and his entire article is there three days
and it is a fascinating reread because they had you remember,
they had the number two pick. They trade back with
Chicago from two to three. They trade back intent of
(44:05):
either taking at three Solomon Thomas from Stanford or Ruben Foster,
the linebacker from Alabama. They were going to take him three.
Solomon's there, they take Solomon Mahomes Watson no consideration they
had Brian Hoyer. They then trade back into the first
round to get Ruben Foster. They then trade up at
(44:26):
the end of the third round to take CJ. Bethard
at quarterback who. Peter King quotes Shanahan or Lynch in
the article saying, this is the only quarterback in the
entire draft. Kyle liked that draft had to Shaun Watson,
Patrick Mahomes in it. He could have taken either one
of them. The only quarterback he liked was CJ. Bethard
(44:48):
four years removed from that. Just for the record, Ruben
Foster's out of the league, Solomon Thomas doesn't play for
them anymore, and neither to CJ. Bethard. Now they got
George Kittle in that draft, though, so like nobody cares,
and the team went to the Super Roll a year later,
so nobody cares. But I do think that two things
can be true. Kyle Shanahan can get the absolute most
(45:12):
out of any quarterback and can be the best play
designer in football. I think that might be true. Andy
Reid's close, but that might be true. And it also
might be true the guy might not have great and
a great eye for quarterback talent, thank you, And so
we're about to find out because he's got They traded
up knowing they're not going to be able to get
(45:33):
Lawrence or Wilson one of fields, Lance or Jones. I
would imagine at least one of them is gonna be awesome.
I would imagine at least one of them is not
going to work at all, and we'll see what happens
with the third. It's important he'd be right. It's important
he'd be right, and we'll see if he is. I
(45:54):
root for all these kids, So I'm not gonna say
mac Jones won't work. He wouldn't be my pick. But
it's not you know, it's not my team. But I
think you bring up an interesting point is that Kyle
Shanahan there's some confirmation bias. He has worked with pocket guys.
I mean, he was in Washington and he worked well.
He saw RG three, who was a kind of a
(46:14):
one side of the field reader who got hurt, and
he's like, uh. Kirk Cousins has never missed a game
except for I think once in Week seventeen he sat out.
There was playoffs. So in his world, Matt shab one
for him, Matt Ryan and Kirk Cousins and J Jimmy
(46:36):
one him. Yeah. So his thing is I had a
running guy, RG three and he lasted a year, and
that's not what I want. But I think your other
point is true is that we tend to think great
calling plays. He knows talent. John Grune's the greatest example.
John Gruden falls in love with everybody. GM's fall in
(46:56):
like with people. Chris Ballard falls in like with people
and falls in love with everybody. Therefore, he's a very
to me poor personnel guy. I mean, even their picks
they got off Khalil Mack and Amari Cooper. One of them,
Jacobs can play. The rest of them are reaches or
can't play. So Shannon's in a very interesting situation where
(47:18):
I'm told by somebody I trust the personnel. People don't
love mac Jones, but Kyle's the star and the organization,
and a star wins, especially at that position, especially if
they if they weren't taking a quarterback, then I think
it wouldn't just be Kyle's call, if you know what
I mean. If they if they were in love with
Jimmy Garoppolo, but for some reason they had the super
(47:41):
high pick and it's like it's either Kyle Pitts or
Wattle or then I think it's a real discussion. But
if it's the quarterback, Kyle's going to win, like he's
You're you don't have him there to not let him
have his quarterback, especially once you make the call to
It's amazing to me how immediately how quickly we all
(48:03):
adjusted to the reality on the ground. Nobody before the
Niners traded three first round picks to move from twelve
to three, no one was saying this was like, oh
my god, they've got to move into the top five.
They've got to do this, and what The part of
this that is the most fascinating to me is the
mac Jones hype and you know, buzz whatever started with
(48:28):
them trading up. Had they not if they end up
taking him at three, I do think a huge what
if is wasn't he going to be there at twelve?
And if he wasn't going to be there at twelve,
certainly he was going to be there at six, which
we saw Miami trade down to twelve, of them back
to six, you could have gotten there. So it's like
(48:49):
they created the market for him, which is why for
a long time, and I said on your show, I
thought it was all a smoke stream. I thought it
was Justin Fields because Justin Fields wasn't gonna be there
at twelve. Now folks are saying Justin Fields could slide
to the Patriots of fifteen. I don't understand any of it.
I just I sometimes feel bad because I don't watch,
you know, twelve hours of college football of Saturday, because
(49:13):
I'm watching twelve hours of the NFL, and I Saturday,
I'll watch a couple college football games. Would also do
something my family. But then I don't feel bad at
all because I'm like, it must not matter. So it's
Justin Fields for having awesome. It's great. Now people are
like Chris Simms, like he's gonna fall to thirty two
to the Bucks. Get get the hell out. He's gonna
fall to thirty two to the Bucks. Yeah, Chris Simms,
(49:36):
who I love his He had the zaniest, zaniest mock draft.
First round. Let's have the Jets taking a defensive lineman.
I'm like, that's all they have, that's their only good unit.
They're not taking a defensive lineman. Let's let's be honest
about And I know you put out a mock draft
and I did a fake you know, like Big board
(49:56):
of Top ten or whatever. Can I tell you why
Simms had the best mock draft? Here's what why? Because
we're talking about it, because then there is nothing more
make believe in our business than the mock drafts. Especially
when someone's like I'm gonna release fiveable It's like, well
then I know your best Like whatever, you're the one,
(50:18):
the things you don't believe are going to be in
the first one because you want your last one to
be accurate. And so Chris Simms got it. He's like, man,
what if I have the guy who ninety days ago
was the consensus number two pick fall to thirty two
and have Tampa take him. It's like, boom, got it?
You know, you know it's his mock draft is the
(50:38):
version of you know, who's the NBA MVP Julius Randall.
It's like, wait, but to shut up? But but its
people are like us, did you hear what they said?
He's the MVP? Mick right? I don't even want to
spoil it. Forty five great minutes. I don't want to
take too much of your time. It's it's it. We're
(51:00):
taping this on Tuesday night. You got your family. I'm
so happy you went rolled the die. I could have
never done that in Vegas. You took ninety g's came back. Well,
you're not gonna tell me what you came back with,
but you wont in poker. I'm just very happy for
you right now. It was good, This is thrilling. We
obviously should do this again soon. And you said, like
(51:22):
you said, we're doing this Tuesday night. People who are
here at Wednesday, and I will be on TV with
you this week. Last week I was in Vegas, so
I couldn't be so we can talk more soon. But
I appreciate you, Colin, continue your buddy. You two all right, Everybody,
hope you enjoyed it. At the Volume Sports, Twitter and Instagram,
rate review, subscribe. We also have at the Volume Sports
(51:43):
YouTube page sign up watch. I hope you liked it
(52:17):
The Volume
The volume. The Colin Cowherd Podcast brought to you by
fan Duel. It's never been easier to play fantasy on
fan Duel. Will he love basketball, golf, soccer or any
fantasy sport. There is a contest for every fan fan
Duel more ways to win. All Right, everybody, it's our
(00:29):
Wednesday morning podcast. Nick writes, We're gonna talk about so
many interesting things. Number one, he just took a massive
life adventure. He took a lot of money to Vegas.
He and I have privately discussed another line of work
which I think he's capable of doing for a living.
He's really good at it. I could never do it.
(00:51):
We're gonna talk about the NBA and the ratings decline,
some thoughts about Mac Jones getting drafted third in my
theories on that. With Nick and I, we talk sports,
we talked life, we talk politics. To me, he's my
perfect podcasting guest. No notes. Let's talk shoot the shit
hopefully the people like it hopefully, and here we go.
(01:18):
All right, And with that, I bring on my friend
Nick Wright. Nick's been joining me on FS one every
Wednesday for about four or five years. He's also the
co host. You know, he's the lead singer for First
Things First, and he's also we can reveal a secret.
It's not really a secret to me, but maybe to
other people. You went to Vegas recently and you were
(01:42):
on Poker after Dark. You and I've been talking about
this for a couple of months, So I don't know
what I'm about to ask you. I do not know
the answers to so I know you took a big
bundle of lettus blood of cabbage before you even asked
the question. When we tell America something true fact about
Colin Cower Concoward once upon a time told me during
(02:03):
an unrelated conversation, Nick, I want you to know something.
Your family is my family. And then he paused and
he was like, what's the scenario where a realistic one
where Nick might need some help, And there's the exact quote.
You ever lose fifty thousand in a weekend, you can
call me and I got your back because he knows
that's in play. This was in play this weekend, these
(02:24):
during this three days of poker. But the fact that
I didn't call you and say uncle Colin and needs
you to do the old wire to the Aria means
it went it didn't go disastrously. I can tell you
that much. And now can you tell me how how
much you took to Vegas? Tell you that ninety ninety
(02:46):
thousand bucks? Yeah, okay, so how did you that's what
you took with you? What did you what did you
bring home? If? Okay, from the poker, if we just
let's just so, I brought ninety with me for poker.
(03:06):
I yeah, I can say this brought home one hundred
and one good poker weekend. Now there's a lot of
other opportunities to gamble in Vegas. Yeah there are. So
here's the thing. So did the full hundred one come
home with me? No, of course not. Do I now
feel like I have carte blanche to stay at the
(03:27):
Aria for life. Maybe it was like that's what we
call building a relationship. That was me in the Aria
getting to know each other. Um, so I so let
me I'll set the context for it. Wednesday and Friday
were cash games with twenty thousand dollars buy ins, fifty
one hundred dollars blinds, and had some Bruce Buffer was
(03:51):
in a game. There was the guy that started Shopify,
which I was like, Shopify, I wonder how good that
company is. I looked it up. I was like, Mark
cap one hundred and sixty seven billion, he's the founder.
I'm like, Okay, maybe don't try to bluff that fella,
because I don't think four thousand bucks gonna scare him.
But then also pros. So Maria Hoe, who's a pro,
(04:15):
played one day. Phil Hellmuth, who's probably the world's most
famous poker player, played two days, and Daniel Negrano, who's
maybe the world's most successful poker player, played And so
Wednesday and Friday were cash games. Thursday was a ten
thousand dollars sit and go tournament where first place got
fifty thousand, second place got twenty thousand, and I Seat
(04:38):
four was Helmuth, Seat five was Meet, six was Negrano.
And I can't What I can tell you is this,
I had a nice long tete, a tete with Phil Hellmuth,
and it will I handled myself well, and I'm Wednesday,
Colin I played. And I can say this because I
(05:00):
don't know what order they're gonna air. Wednesday, I played
the worst poker of my life. I was totally shaken
up by the situation. I didn't think I would be.
I was worried that everyone was coming after me, even
though why would they be coming after me? I played
terribly Thursday I played perfect poker for five hours, and
Friday I played really well, and I'm going to go
(05:20):
back and I'm gonna do it again. It was great.
Do you think do you think you can make a
living playing poker? I think that I think that if
I what you said in the beginning is you know
my downfall. If do I think I could be a
profitable poker player? Yes? Am I a profitable poker player? Yes?
(05:43):
Could I make as much money just playing poker as
I do in my regular life? I would have to
that that would That's a tougher question, right like, and
I'd have to really drill down on it. But also
knowing myself, what is the cost associated with the walk
(06:04):
to the poker room and the walk back from the
poker room, the walk past the sports book, and the
walk past the blackjack tables and those things? Those have
always been you know, you know, we've had an off
and on relationship for twenty years, myself and those pits
and so well, so I think that I could certainly
do more and more than I've done. I mean, I've
been playing I was I've been playing poker for twenty years,
(06:27):
and so i've you know, and I understand the math
of it, and I love it. And so being able
to go up against the best in the world and
see how I could shape up. I'm glad I didn't
get my head handed to me. I'll tell you that much. Well,
it's great. It's funny. You and I are so different
in so many ways, just the way we think. You're
very matthy, I'm not. I like structure. I'm very much
(06:49):
into business. You're really not. You're more creative than I am.
We have but in a weird way, I live through you.
You're like a mobster. You live the life I wish
I had the courage to do, which is go sit,
play poker, hundreds of thousands of dollars, roll the dice.
(07:10):
It's like I watched Tony Soprano. I think, beyond clipping, guys,
what a life. Yeah, if you take that part out,
that's well, that's the that I mean I do. Here's
the thing I think that that that's why mobster movies
will always be successful and people will always like them,
is even though there's a part of your brain that
is like these are totally a moral awful people. There
(07:35):
is a part of the lifestyle that seems so alluring,
no matter your level of success or wealth or anything
in a regular structured life. Just the bands of cash
and the I will do what I want when I
want that type of thing. There is part of at
(07:55):
least I shouldn't say for everyone, but at least for me.
And it sounds like for you that that always has
been attractive to and then and so I mean, that's
why for as long as there's been cinema, people have
enjoyed watching those movies. Yeah, but you're not uncut gems
Adam Sandler intense, No, I'm not. I No, but I
(08:19):
this is where and you and I and we You
and I have talked about this somewhat on the air,
but a lot off the air. This is where I
am very very very thankful that I have my rock,
of my home, of my wife and kids, because I
do think that if not for the responsibility, accountability and
(08:40):
the things that come with being a father and a husband,
that I that I'm always you know, I'd be far
closer to the edge of saying, you know what, let's
take a big shot like a bigger shot than that
is responsible the shot I took this weekend. I don't
want folks to get confused. I ain't got nothing close
to the con hour money. It would have hurt if
(09:02):
I had come home with zero. That would have been
as a that's a long plane ride. That's that's a
twenty six hour, five hour flight back from Vegas. So
it would have hurt, but it wouldn't have been like, well,
I'm ruined, and so you know, I stay within the bounds.
But yeah, I'm probably a little closer to Sandler and
uncut Gems than you are, but I'm not. But I'm not.
(09:24):
You know, nobody goes full Sandler. You don't want to
do that. No, I mean, I've said I have the
ability to twice a year bet five thousand dollars on
a game, and that's it, and I'm totally happy. I
bet on Clemson over Ohio State, and I bet a
ton on Green Bay at Houston last year after they
were humiliated and the line was only four the following
week and I'm like, no, they're gonna dust Houston, and
(09:46):
I was I was okay doing that. I was okay
betting five thousand dollars that the Cleveland Browns will win
more than nine and a half games on the hold
on for the record, Sorry to interrupt you in your podcast.
That is what we in the business call an emotional hedge,
which was you knew deep down there was part of
you that was going to be sad if Baker won
ten games, so at least you could be happy with
(10:09):
the five thousand. So that's an emotional Well. It's interesting
because when I moved to Vegas out of college, I
was a huge college football fan, and I was still
really a fan the last team. I was a fan
of the University of Washington, and so after the first
couple of weekends, you know, I was betting them to win,
and they lost one of the games, and I remember thinking,
got it ruins my weekend. So my team lost and
(10:31):
I lost money, So I wrote about it my first book.
I started doing kind of life insurance where I would
always bet against my favorite teams, so either I won
money or my team won, and I never had a
weekend that was completely lost. They say in Alabama when
the Crimson Tide lose, the commerce goes down in the
state on Monday, like people are shot. So I was
(10:53):
finding myself when I was a true fan. I would
be ruined if the Huskies lost and I bet on them.
So the emotional hedge comments actually true. I do find
from occasion it's better for me if Baker go seven
and ten. But that roster is too good to not
go eleven and six. It just is unless they get
(11:16):
Kansas City early, Green Bay, New England on the road
late and the schedule doesn't work out perfectly. But but
do you ever bet emotionally? Do you ever have emotional hedges? Oh?
I do the opposite of the So the opposite of
the emotional hedge is the maximum pleasure maximum pain. And
that is and I can give you the I have
in the twenty in the you know, this calendar year
(11:38):
of sports, I have two perfect examples of it working
out amazingly and working out terribly. You know, all year
long I was as anti last basketball season Clippers as
anyone could possibly be, and I said all year long,
they are not going to make the conference finals. And
(11:59):
before Nuggets Clippers, I bet on the Nuggets. And when
they were down three games to one, I bet on
the Nuggets more. And they at like thirty two to one,
and they came all the way roaring back and won
the series. That plus, I of course had a future
on Lebron and the Lakers, so that was like perfect
for me. The opposite of that is what happened in
(12:21):
the damn Super Bowl, which you will never let me
forget all year long. I am talking about how Brady
is cooked. And I'm from Kansas City, I'm a Chiefs fan.
I have a ton of Chiefs futures out there. So
going into the Super Bowl, I already had a massive
swing just from my Chiefs futures already my AUNTI you know,
(12:42):
like a career bet as far as me being right
or wrong on Brady and so a wise man, a
smart man would do nothing for the Super Bowl. A
wise man would bet a sizeable amount on Tampa plus
the three and a half, hope the Chiefs win by
three and you win the board. An idiot would just
(13:04):
hammer the Chiefs three at minus three and a half
and just have it just be the worst everything. Just
I'm sad it costs me money. So yeah, that that
is so the emotional hedge or hedging in general. You
got it. So I'll go to black jack quickly, and
we don't have through the whole thing on gambling if
(13:25):
you don't want. But it's the Some people in blackjack
like a twelve against a two. The book says to
hit that, but it's like fifty one forty nine. It's
very close. And if I'm ever playing at a table
and someone says what should I do on that, I
tell them, listen, you're supposed to hit, but it doesn't
really matter. But just do the same thing whatever it is,
(13:47):
be consistent. Decide this whole blackjack run. I'm either staying
on a twelve against the two or I'm hitting a
twelve against the two. Don't go back and forth. That's
how I feel about hedging bets, like I made a
life decision a decade ago that I don't hedge bets.
That if I bet the Chiefs before the year at
six to one to win the Super Bowl, and I
(14:09):
can hedge that bet and lock in a profit of
the equivalent of four to one, I'm not doing it.
I won't hedge bets. Now. You know a lot of
people say, Nick, that's really dumb, and I say, you're
probably right, But I've made the choice, and I just
feel like the moment I hedge is the moment that
you're I'm not supposed to, it's gonna come around the
(14:31):
other way, so I won't do it. So I hedge everything. Yep.
So my whole life I have hedged everything, and I
do believe. So I think there's probably a psychology in
my childhood. Why I hedge? I hedge on everything. You don't.
So if I said, be a psychologist Sigmund Freud for
(14:53):
three minutes, why don't you hedge? Oh? Because part of
what probably part of what I'm looking for is the
emotional pull that comes from the swings, and hedging eliminates
(15:14):
both sides of it. So like I'm so, it's part
of this is finances and trying to outsmart the line
or in poker, outsmart the competition like ego boost or whatever.
But also part of it is there's something in me
that wants to the extremes. My guess is this you.
I don't think either one of us had you know,
(15:37):
the what people would consider like a rough or very
seemingly very difficult upbringing. But I had a very comfortable upbringing.
Aside from my parents getting divorced, which was traumatic for
any child. I had two great parents, both were employed
with good jobs my whole life, a great sister, never
worried about anything really as a kid and as a
(15:59):
teenage gotten a lot of like minor trouble because I
was just an idiot, but never really was concerned about anything.
There was no risk in my life whatsoever. So my
guess is the Sigmund for it is I have found
a way to add that that for some reason I
needed it, which is probably unhealthy. And I found a
way to add that risk to my life because it's
(16:21):
always been so safe for me, you know what I mean,
coming up the way I did. So my guess is
that's the answer. Yeah, And mine is the opposite, which
I grew up in chaos with multiple divorces and thought
I was going to be broke for life. So I
don't want pain, and so I hedge every bet. I
don't want chaos, I don't want broke because I dealt
(16:42):
with that my whole life. I've thought about this. I
hedge every bet. So I'm actually a really I think
I'm a really smart businessman for a broadcaster. Is that
I've done really well. I've hedged all my bets. I'll
never go low. I'll probably never hit the lottery. But
some would argue I've hit that as a broadcaster. But
I'm a bet. I'm a bet hedger. I always you know,
(17:03):
if I if I bet big, I look to bet
against my bet later in the week exactly to hedge it, right,
So like, and that's and your and your businesses you
have you have like diversified your businesses enough, yes, that
that's a natural hedge. Like you have, you have a
natural hedge even within broadcasting by the ability to now
(17:27):
tangibly do at the highest levels television, radio and digital.
That's that's the ultimate hedge against everything is like, as
long as content creation is a thing, it all the
delivery mechanism almost is, you're impervious to the swings of it.
And so that's you know, And so that's the I
(17:47):
think you're right that whatever it is that you know
wires us from a young age sets us on those paths.
And mine is one that is more and and I
would and this is me at my least and my
most seemingly risk averse because what I don't allow is
(18:08):
my own you know, you know the fact that I
haven't gotten therapy for whatever is wrong with me. I'm
not going to allow that to have a negative impact
on what my wife and kids can do. So as
long as like you know what I mean, all of
that stuff is always taking care of, that's kind of
my headges like, I'll make sure that all of this
is filled up and taken care of, and then the
rest is my own kind of personal freedom. One. All right,
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Sports Book. That's pretty much a gimme. You know, it's interesting.
I would think, you know, we we both love the NBA.
I lean NFL then NBA. I think you lean NBA
then NFL. But I did think about something that I
want you to respond to, is that Frank Vogel, so
much of the NBA is you know, don't very rarely
(20:01):
did anybody have like in the NFL. Belichick's one of
the few with personnel power and coaching power. Pete Carroll
now in Seattle, has that. Andy Reid never had it
in Philly and doesn't really have it in Kansas City.
He takes the players Brett Veach gets and then so
Frank Vogel, his oh has been great with biggs. Doesn't
(20:22):
love guards, likes physical teams, defense and developing bigs. He
didn't really have that. Roy Hibbert wasn't a transformational talent.
He was an average college player, and yet Frank Vogel
made him into a nuisance for Lebron James and those
series against the Heat. He goes to Orlando again, it's
not a perfect roster for him. What's interesting is he
(20:45):
goes to the Lakers. Now he has Andre Drummond, Anthony
Davis long guard play Lebron James, and it took him
forever to get there. On the other side, Brooklyn Mike
D'Antoni just like scores and guards Steve Nash, that's what
he would know. So in a weird way, the two
most talented teams are Brooklyn and the Lakers. But what's
(21:06):
fascinating the staffs fit perfectly with the rosters. And I
do think if Vogel could pick the team in the
NBA he likes, he would take Anthony Davis, Lebron James,
and Andre Drummond, and Antony would say, yeah, I got
three scores, two great guards, and so I do think
(21:28):
there's a likelihood they get to the finals together. It
is an ultimate chess match, and it'll be It won't
be quick. I mean Miami Heat and a bunch of kids,
and Jimmy Butler took him sick. It would be a
six or seven game series. So that's how I see it.
I do think if Brooklyn gets past Philly, which is
not a great matchup, then you're gonna get a chess
(21:48):
match in the finals. Anything I just said you disagree with, No,
I what I want to drill down on the coaching
part of it for a moment, because I think that
I don't think Brooklyn's going to make the finals, and
I but set aside that opinion. What they need is
(22:10):
at the very least a Frank Vogel type on that staff.
What they need is somebody. It's not only that Brooklyn
doesn't have a single great defensive player on the roster.
They had one in Jared Allen, by the way, but
he was part of the Harden trade. It's not only
(22:30):
that they don't have, like the to me, a traditional
roster configuration as far as bigs, wings and point guards.
It's also that everyone that matters is, as you put it,
focus on one end of the court. They're three best players,
their head coach, and their assistant coach, who is the
(22:53):
most important assistant coach in basketball. D'Antoni is the only
real assistant coach that matters for a contending team. Because
Steve Nash is new to all of this, and that's
not a knock on Nash, but the Antoni's important there.
So the fact that they all are just go, go
go score, score score, and they don't you know, what
(23:14):
they needed really was a defensive big. They didn't get that.
If you can't get the personnel, then maybe find a
coach who can drill on that part of it. They
don't have that either. The Lakers have built, to me,
like the entire coaching staff of Vogel staff around defense,
(23:35):
with the confidence that it is impossible for a team
with Lebron James, certainly a team of Lebron James and
Anthony Davis to be bad on offense, that the offense
will take care of itself when Lebron's on the court.
And so what we need is for everyone else to
care about defense and what you've gotten and Vogel should
(23:55):
get tremendous credit for this. It's a guy like Kyle
Kuzma now bison on defense and bust his ass on defense.
He's like, that's my I understand that is part of
winning in this role for this team, and that's super important.
Markith Morris on a minimum contract like is buying into
those things. So that's where Vogel's been excellent I do
(24:17):
hope we get Nets Lakers in the finals. I don't
think we will, but that is the most it is
the most fascinating for a million reasons that you mentioned
different styles it would have. You could argue, you could
make the argument that lebron KD harden A d are
four of the five best players in the entire league.
(24:39):
And by the way, Kyrie Irving is you know, ten, eleven, twelve,
something like that. So it would the star power be
unbelievable and it would be the ultimate threes versus twos
because the Lakers could get layups almost anytime they wanted,
and the Nets are going to shoot a million high
percentage threes and see who wins. Yeah, I think Philadelphia
(25:00):
stands in the way I think. I think Joe lmbad
is a disruptor. I think Simmons the great defensive guard,
Tobias Harris under Doc plays well. They shoot enough threes.
I do think Philadelphia is a matchup. I don't think
Boston matches up offensively, but I think Philadelphia can match
up on both ends and is a much better defensive team.
Well here's what I think. I think that it's the
(25:21):
one seed is going to have immense importance. Not because
of home court, because we don't even know how many
fans are going to be allowed. Not because of that,
but if you're the two seed and you get Miami
in Round one, Miami this year is not Miami last year,
but they're not going to get swept. They're going to
take a game off you and physically beach up a
(25:43):
little bit. And more importantly, the two seed then has
Milwaukee in Round three. And what Milwaukee is not the
same Milwaukee as last year. They added Drew Holiday and
they got PJ. Tucker during the season. PJ Tuckers played
in big games for the last five years, excellent on defense,
tough as a rock, and we'll hit corner threes. I
(26:05):
don't think Milwaukee will beat either of those teams in
a series, but there is the element of when the
seventy three win Warriors lost to the Caves. They lost
that series for two reasons. One is Lebron had the
greatest three game starts in the history of the league,
and the other is because the Oklahoma City took them
seven the round before, and they were tired and they
(26:26):
were a little gimpie and they had you know, they
had you only have so much to give in this
sprint of the playoffs, and if you're the one seed
and you're playing the winner of Atlanta New York in
round two and the other team is playing Milwaukee, that
is a massive edge. So I just think the one
seed is going to be critically important. I know Philadelphia
(26:49):
thinks it's important. I don't think Brooklyn does, and so
I think Philly's getting up the one seed. And I
think a big part of the Eastern Governmence Finals is
going to be how easy Round two was and wasn't
for those two Another NBA topic, it doesn't really matter because,
as I've tried to tell people who talk about ratings content,
(27:09):
all these networks are starved for content. And so the
bottom line is, it doesn't matter if the baseball ratings
are down or the hockey ratings are down. I mean,
hockey ratings have been terrible forever. They're still getting ESPN
and t n T or TBS to pay form. It
doesn't matter, is it. It could be argued, though it
is a little alarming that the NBA's lost about thirty
(27:32):
percent of TV ratings last two years. There's a I
don't I don't think ratings are ever one thing. I
think cable's going down. I think regular season ratings are
going down. I think even the NFL ratings went down.
I think that's the reality of it. I also think
because of a condensed schedule, more stars are taking off
just getting ready for the playoffs. I would do the
(27:53):
exact same thing. So but but it is. It is
something many have suggested, and I think again, I think
it could be part of it. They've been more aggressive
on social issues and there are some people that go
to sports and don't want to deal with that crap.
As somebody who's an NBA fan active in social opinions,
what do you make It won't affect the bottom line.
(28:14):
They're going to get a massive number for their deal.
That's not the issue. We all know that. But if
I ran the league, I wouldn't love the direction of
the TV ratings. It would give me less leverage than
I want when I go up for negotiation. Why have
they lost thirty percent or roughly? They're about two years
all right, So I do think there is a percentage
(28:38):
of that that has to do with the social issues.
But I also think the people angriest about the social
issues are not diehard NBA fans and those people faintly like, listen, folks,
when you tweet me, this is why I don't watch
the NBA. I wish I could find you, give you
(28:59):
a polygraph and be like, have you watched a game
since John Stockton retired? Like, be honest with me, because
I don't think you have. Like I think a lot.
I don't think the NBA turned off their core customer
by being on the correct side of police violence and
alone social justice. I do think they lost a percentage,
and I think the league decided it's worth it to us,
(29:20):
it's important to our players. We are an overwhelmingly black league,
and we're not going to silence our guys on it,
and said we're gonna lean into it and it'll age
well with history. But I'm sure I don't think that
helped the ratings. I'll tell you what I think hurts
the ratings. I think baseball and basketball are right now
both dealing with and football. This has not happened to
(29:42):
a misalignment of incentives. And by that I mean this
the gms who build the teams and picked the coaches
and picked the strategies. Their job is to win. The
owners and the league league's job is to create an
(30:02):
exciting television product. And as analytics have taught us on
baseball and basketball, not that dissimilar to the evolution of
poker from earlier. There's not a gray. There is a
right way and a wrong way to attack things. That
does give you an edge on the field. It is
(30:23):
not good for television the NBA becoming all threes, free
throws in dunks, just like baseball becoming walk strikeout, home run.
That's not good for TV. And I think that they
the leagues need to have a very hard conversation with themselves.
How do we change our rules to incentivize a more
(30:49):
diversified game play where everyone is not doing the same strategy.
Because that one of the things that is good about
the NFL is it's such a black boy analytically that
guys are trying a bunch of different things, and there
are different styles. It's not as different stylistically as college
football is. People are throwing more in things like that.
(31:10):
But the version of the shift and the opener has
not hit the NFL, and the version of fifty threes
a game and no mid range jump shots has not
hit the NFL. But it has major League Baseball in
the NBA. So you know how much I love the league.
But I think the players are better and I think
(31:31):
the teams are smarter, But it doesn't mean it's a
better product than it was a decade ago because everyone
plays the same style, and how many games come down
to this question who hit more threes? Oh, this team
was seventeen of thirty of thirty six. Oh, this team
got hot, they were twenty one of thirty nine. Will
then they won, and so they got to figure that out.
(31:52):
They have to figure that out. That to me is
the bigger problem is that now in the playoffs, it
figures itself out to a degree because the game slows
down some and there is more nuance. But I think
I don't think it's about Black lives matter being on
the court. I think it's about the fact that everyone
is playing the same style, and I don't think it's
as exciting for some people. You know, I got into
(32:16):
this topic on my show today. I said there's no
perfect husband, wife, political candidate, quarterback. I'm never when I
created the volume, I was never worried about what people
couldn't do. I was trying to find people that can
do things. I knew we were all going to talk
(32:36):
about the same sports, but I wanted people with different angles,
and Jenkins and Jones didn't sound like anybody I knew,
so they can deliver. I'm not asking them to do
play by play. I'm not asking them to host. I'm
asking him and make me laugh and make me think
they did things I can't do. Renee Paquette a keep
(32:57):
to leave Alex Monico. So I was in the can business.
I don't care what you can't do. And I talked
about this on the show. I even talked a little politics.
I said. One of the things that drive drives me
crazy with Democrats. Republicans tend to find a candidate candidate
and if they mostly believe in what he does, he
checks three or four main boxes, then they get in line.
(33:20):
They're not seeking perfection. Democrats don't get in line. They
get in they fall in love, not in line, and
they go, oh, Bet is the best and mayor Peat's
the best. But if they don't agree up and down
the line on virtually everything, he's a bad candidate, and
I'm like, stop, stop it. Democrats drive me nuts this
way that they often eat their own, they eat their young,
(33:44):
They eat their candidates. And my theory and I was
talking about Zion and Lamar was Zion. We have now
been paralyzed by what he can't do. Hit threes. He
is the most efficient score for his age in the
history of the league. Bucky Brooks, I love, but he
suggested they should move off Lamar Jackson and go get
(34:04):
justin Field. And I'm like, he's thirty and four against
the league not named Patrick Mahomes. He's won a road
playoff game, he's twenty four. What he can do, he's otherworldly.
You cannot compare him to Patrick Mahomes. There's one of
those in the world, maybe two. And so kind of
your thoughts on Zion and Lamar, we are stuck in
(34:28):
this well, they don't do it. And my takeaways are
you people nuts? What they do they do better than
any humans on the planet currently. So before I answer that,
I want to respond to your initial political analogy because
I think it's really smart and I think both parties
(34:49):
would be better, would be very well served to take
something from the other in this regard. In my experience,
ardent conservatives or republic Plikans to use your example, they
root for their candidates like a sports team, like I'm
a root for the Chiefs basically, no matter what, like
it's just they're my team. And so there there will
(35:13):
be some people who you know to this day, or
it will be like, Nope, there were weapons of mass
destruction in a rock because they are pot committed buddy,
It's like, nope, I'm all in. On the flip side
to your point about Democrats, there will be Democrats who
it's like a critically important election against an abhorrent candidate.
(35:34):
On the other side, it's like, wow, I don't know
if he doesn't support exactly this, I'm turning on it
and and brutal. It's brutal. It's brutal. And for me, listen,
I'm a I'm a labor Democrat. I came up in
a union household for a guy I and I obviously
deeply care about social issues, but I really care about
(35:57):
the average American worker being able to, you know what
I mean, raise their overall level. When I see when
I see these things, I'm like, we're gonna lose to
the wing night because we're gonna kill our own guy.
So I wish democrats could have a little more. All right,
let's see the big picture, you know what I mean,
and you know, kind of move forward and understand there aren't.
(36:19):
And I also wish that some Republicans could do a
better job of being like, Okay, this guy's accused of
doing what at the mall in Alabama. Okay, I can't
with him like there should be and so that I
agree with that takeoleheartedly. Now I'm Zion and Lamar, I
we of course, this is something that Bill Simmons said
(36:44):
a long time ago, and I just give him credit
because I think he's right. There are certain guys that
are ninety ten guys, and I would argue for a
long part of his career, Russell Westbrooks been one of
these guys. We're ninety percent of the stuff they do
is all but ten percent of the stuff they do
is not only bad, it's glaringly bad. It's like obviously bad,
(37:08):
and we focus all on the tent. So with Lamar,
for example, listen, I think Lamar has been misdiscussed from
the very beginning. People were too critical of him, which
made people too protective of him, which made people It's
like a weird cycle where there's some people act like
he is. There are no holes in his game, and
(37:30):
some people act like he's still has proven nothing even
though he want an MVP. There can be some nuance there.
There is obviously a way to defend Lamar Jackson, which
is if you can, and it's very hard to do,
take away the run. He's going to have some games
where he's just an inaccurate passer, where he is not
(37:50):
great yet at surveying the entire field and throwing the
ball accurately. But that shouldn't be the focus on him
when what he his teammates love him. He is an
excellent leader. He is the most dynamic athlete we've had
at the position since Vic and maybe including Vic. He's
durable despite getting his ass kicked repeatedly. He's always popping up.
(38:14):
He's young, he gets in no trouble. So what we
focus on things he can't do. And it's similar like
you're saying with Zion. Zion's played less than ninety career
NBA games. He scores twenty seven a night. On Shack's
shooting percentage, is he can you give him the ball
(38:35):
to shoot a pull up mid range jump shot. No,
But until somebody shows they can stop him from getting
to the rim. Who gives a damn, and so there
is there's a lot of like concern trolling with some
of these guys, like the Zion. It's like, well, if
this doesn't happen, then in four years, right, if in
four years he's the same player, then you're just gonna
(38:57):
have to accept. Okay, I guess all he's ever going
to be is the ninth best player in the world.
Like he's because he's already a fringe top ten guy.
If he never gets better, he stays there. So yes,
I agree. I think there is too much focus on
for certain guys what they can't do, and there are
certain guys where the opposite's true. I'll use the hey
(39:18):
people think I'm too hard on him. I think the
quarterback of the New York Giants is an example of this.
Everyone there he throws a beautiful deep ball, but he's
bad at everything else. But everyone is like, oh my god,
like look at these traits, these tools, like he can yeah,
but he fumbles more than any player ever. He doesn't
read the field particularly well. I thought he was fast
(39:40):
and had that one really good run then he just
fell down on his own, like, but he's just focusing
on like the one so there are certain guys we
focus on one great skill, and the certain guys who
have a bunch of great skills will focus on the
one bad things, the thing they don't have. You know,
I usually Wednesdays we converge on the we didn't this week.
(40:01):
So I'm gonna throw something else I talked about today
that we probably would have talked about on TV, and
that is the NFL is very much a fear based league.
Last year, the top twenty five picks in the NFL's
first round all played significant minutes. In the NBA, your
top ten picks are often ceiling guys. I'm not going
(40:21):
to get much for two or three years. Joe Lmba's
a classic example, but his ceiling is huge. If you
do that in the NFL the Packers did with Jordan Love.
They're still getting ripped for it because and my theory
is in the NBA that you can be fired as
a coach or at GM. I mean, Dan Tony will
get another job and he doesn't even want to coach
defense or bigs, He'll get another job. Frank Vogel got
(40:44):
fired twice, not only got a good job, got the
best job. The Lakers Lebron Tibbs was like a tire
fire gets the I love stan Bean Gundy commentary on Twitter.
He has not shown me ever that he's a good coach,
and he just keeps getting jobs, just keep so. In
(41:07):
the NBA, there is a sense the GM and the coach. Hey,
it's the process. It's okay, we don't need a guy now.
If he hits big and bead will be a one
or two seed. The NFL it's different. I mean, John
Grun's the only guy with the leash. He has a
Super Bowl and has gotten better in all the years
he's been there, and we're just about done with him.
(41:28):
We're just about done with him. My point is the
Niners don't care about ceiling. Kyle Shanahan's like I'm in
the toughest division easily. The Rams got better, the Seahawks
got better than Arizonna is better. Garoppolo can't stay healthy,
and in four years I have three losing seasons. I
don't give a shit about ceiling. I have to win now.
(41:51):
And Mac Jones had a pro coordinator in college, a
pro coach through the pros and in the SEC face pros,
and for the next three years he'll be Kirk Cousins. Yeah,
I'm number two all time to Patrick Mahomes in the
first sixteen starts for my quarterback, Nick Mullins is second
behind Patrick Mahomes first sixteen starts. And by the way,
(42:12):
the last two times Kyle Shanahan's had a quarterback that's
healthy for a year, Matt Ryan Shanahan, he got to
a Matt Ryan garoppolo, he got to a Nuper Bowl.
So my takeaway is even Shanahan, there's some fear based
mechanism for NFL coaches where my runway if I lose
again because I'm developing Trey Lance the sh trouble here, right,
(42:37):
and so that's that's really fascinating. And I now have
been become resigned to the fact that they are taking
mac Jones. And it's because of the press conference Monday,
when I know everyone was focused on everything Shanahan said.
Shanahan's like, listen, might be Pompey over here. We might
all be dead on Sunday, like I can't hear. The
(42:57):
most interesting part was when John Lynch said, without saying it,
this ain't my pick boys. He said, Kyle's our coach,
He's our offensive coordinator. It's a quarterback genius. I would
be insane not to listen to what who he wants
of that position. Back to me was John Lynch saying,
(43:20):
Kyle's it's all the credit is the right guy. But
also that's his pick. It's his pick because I don't
think they're necessarily the same page there, so I think
they are probably gonna take mac Jones. I also think,
and I tweeted it out Tuesday morning so people can
go check the link. Peter King was in the draft
(43:42):
room with Lynch and Shanahan for their first draft ever
twenty seventeen, and his entire article is there three days
and it is a fascinating reread because they had you remember,
they had the number two pick. They trade back with
Chicago from two to three. They trade back intent of
(44:05):
either taking at three Solomon Thomas from Stanford or Ruben Foster,
the linebacker from Alabama. They were going to take him three.
Solomon's there, they take Solomon Mahomes Watson no consideration they
had Brian Hoyer. They then trade back into the first
round to get Ruben Foster. They then trade up at
(44:26):
the end of the third round to take CJ. Bethard
at quarterback who. Peter King quotes Shanahan or Lynch in
the article saying, this is the only quarterback in the
entire draft. Kyle liked that draft had to Shaun Watson,
Patrick Mahomes in it. He could have taken either one
of them. The only quarterback he liked was CJ. Bethard
(44:48):
four years removed from that. Just for the record, Ruben
Foster's out of the league, Solomon Thomas doesn't play for
them anymore, and neither to CJ. Bethard. Now they got
George Kittle in that draft, though, so like nobody cares,
and the team went to the Super Roll a year later,
so nobody cares. But I do think that two things
can be true. Kyle Shanahan can get the absolute most
(45:12):
out of any quarterback and can be the best play
designer in football. I think that might be true. Andy
Reid's close, but that might be true. And it also
might be true the guy might not have great and
a great eye for quarterback talent, thank you, And so
we're about to find out because he's got They traded
up knowing they're not going to be able to get
(45:33):
Lawrence or Wilson one of fields, Lance or Jones. I
would imagine at least one of them is gonna be awesome.
I would imagine at least one of them is not
going to work at all, and we'll see what happens
with the third. It's important he'd be right. It's important
he'd be right, and we'll see if he is. I
(45:54):
root for all these kids, So I'm not gonna say
mac Jones won't work. He wouldn't be my pick. But
it's not you know, it's not my team. But I
think you bring up an interesting point is that Kyle
Shanahan there's some confirmation bias. He has worked with pocket guys.
I mean, he was in Washington and he worked well.
He saw RG three, who was a kind of a
(46:14):
one side of the field reader who got hurt, and
he's like, uh. Kirk Cousins has never missed a game
except for I think once in Week seventeen he sat out.
There was playoffs. So in his world, Matt shab one
for him, Matt Ryan and Kirk Cousins and J Jimmy
(46:36):
one him. Yeah. So his thing is I had a
running guy, RG three and he lasted a year, and
that's not what I want. But I think your other
point is true is that we tend to think great
calling plays. He knows talent. John Grune's the greatest example.
John Gruden falls in love with everybody. GM's fall in
(46:56):
like with people. Chris Ballard falls in like with people
and falls in love with everybody. Therefore, he's a very
to me poor personnel guy. I mean, even their picks
they got off Khalil Mack and Amari Cooper. One of them,
Jacobs can play. The rest of them are reaches or
can't play. So Shannon's in a very interesting situation where
(47:18):
I'm told by somebody I trust the personnel. People don't
love mac Jones, but Kyle's the star and the organization,
and a star wins, especially at that position, especially if
they if they weren't taking a quarterback, then I think
it wouldn't just be Kyle's call, if you know what
I mean. If they if they were in love with
Jimmy Garoppolo, but for some reason they had the super
(47:41):
high pick and it's like it's either Kyle Pitts or
Wattle or then I think it's a real discussion. But
if it's the quarterback, Kyle's going to win, like he's
You're you don't have him there to not let him
have his quarterback, especially once you make the call to
It's amazing to me how immediately how quickly we all
(48:03):
adjusted to the reality on the ground. Nobody before the
Niners traded three first round picks to move from twelve
to three, no one was saying this was like, oh
my god, they've got to move into the top five.
They've got to do this, and what The part of
this that is the most fascinating to me is the
mac Jones hype and you know, buzz whatever started with
(48:28):
them trading up. Had they not if they end up
taking him at three, I do think a huge what
if is wasn't he going to be there at twelve?
And if he wasn't going to be there at twelve,
certainly he was going to be there at six, which
we saw Miami trade down to twelve, of them back
to six, you could have gotten there. So it's like
(48:49):
they created the market for him, which is why for
a long time, and I said on your show, I
thought it was all a smoke stream. I thought it
was Justin Fields because Justin Fields wasn't gonna be there
at twelve. Now folks are saying Justin Fields could slide
to the Patriots of fifteen. I don't understand any of it.
I just I sometimes feel bad because I don't watch,
you know, twelve hours of college football of Saturday, because
(49:13):
I'm watching twelve hours of the NFL, and I Saturday,
I'll watch a couple college football games. Would also do
something my family. But then I don't feel bad at
all because I'm like, it must not matter. So it's
Justin Fields for having awesome. It's great. Now people are
like Chris Simms, like he's gonna fall to thirty two
to the Bucks. Get get the hell out. He's gonna
fall to thirty two to the Bucks. Yeah, Chris Simms,
(49:36):
who I love his He had the zaniest, zaniest mock draft.
First round. Let's have the Jets taking a defensive lineman.
I'm like, that's all they have, that's their only good unit.
They're not taking a defensive lineman. Let's let's be honest
about And I know you put out a mock draft
and I did a fake you know, like Big board
(49:56):
of Top ten or whatever. Can I tell you why
Simms had the best mock draft? Here's what why? Because
we're talking about it, because then there is nothing more
make believe in our business than the mock drafts. Especially
when someone's like I'm gonna release fiveable It's like, well
then I know your best Like whatever, you're the one,
(50:18):
the things you don't believe are going to be in
the first one because you want your last one to
be accurate. And so Chris Simms got it. He's like, man,
what if I have the guy who ninety days ago
was the consensus number two pick fall to thirty two
and have Tampa take him. It's like, boom, got it?
You know, you know it's his mock draft is the
(50:38):
version of you know, who's the NBA MVP Julius Randall.
It's like, wait, but to shut up? But but its
people are like us, did you hear what they said?
He's the MVP? Mick right? I don't even want to
spoil it. Forty five great minutes. I don't want to
take too much of your time. It's it's it. We're
(51:00):
taping this on Tuesday night. You got your family. I'm
so happy you went rolled the die. I could have
never done that in Vegas. You took ninety g's came back. Well,
you're not gonna tell me what you came back with,
but you wont in poker. I'm just very happy for
you right now. It was good, This is thrilling. We
obviously should do this again soon. And you said, like
(51:22):
you said, we're doing this Tuesday night. People who are
here at Wednesday, and I will be on TV with
you this week. Last week I was in Vegas, so
I couldn't be so we can talk more soon. But
I appreciate you, Colin, continue your buddy. You two all right, Everybody,
hope you enjoyed it. At the Volume Sports, Twitter and Instagram,
rate review, subscribe. We also have at the Volume Sports
(51:43):
YouTube page sign up watch. I hope you liked it
(52:17):
The Volume
Host
Colin Cowherd
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