September 6, 2024 • 44 mins
Colin reacts to the NFL season opener with the Kansas City Chiefs beating the Baltimore Ravens by the length of a toe (3:00) He explains why Lamar Jackson can’t get hit that much, why the Chiefs have solved their “weapons problem" and why he’s not selling his Ravens stock (6:00).
Then, Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network, joins Colin for a season opening of “Sharp or Square,” to help provide Colin with the sharpest betting advice for Week 1
19:00- Cardinals vs Bills
21:00 - Panthers vs Saints
25:00 - Commanders vs Buccaneers
27:00 - Broncos vs Seahawks
28:30 - Jets vs 49ers
30:15 - Browns vs Cowboys
32:45 - Bears vs Titans
34:30 - Vikings vs Giants
37:00 - Colts vs Texans
39:00 - Rams vs Lions
Finally, Colin breaks down two of his favorite college football matchups of the weekend, Colorado vs Nebraska and Texas vs. Michigan and makes his picks for each (50:00)!
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
The volume. All right, Chad Milman's about to stop by.
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game Time Today. What time is it? Game Time Immediate reaction.
(00:53):
If you wonder why the NFL is king on television
twenty seven to twenty tonight was a great example decided
by that much a toe decides the game. Listen. Baltimore
was outplayed for big chunks of this thing and almost
almost tied it. They almost certainly would have gone for
(01:15):
two in the win. And that's why Baltimore is so dangerous.
You know. Lamar Jackson did not throw the ball down
the field effectively, nor has he ever as well as
Patrick Mahomes, although Mahomes did not throw the ball down
the field much last year because it was one of
the worst receiving cores in the league. With Worthy, now
that's a deep threat. They've added some dimensions and over
(01:37):
the top receiver Juju Smith Schuster will become more productive
over time. He just got reacquired, so Watson Rice now
where she Rice looks like a number one. Worthy's going
to be a gadget guy early. I don't think he's
a heavy volume guy, a nine to ten catch guy,
but he adds an element they didn't have. He's an
over the top playmaker. But it's interesting watching ball the
(02:00):
more they had a lot of offensive penalties, especially early
in the game. They don't throw the ball down the
field enough. And then you get that final drive by
Lamar Jackson, where I mean, honestly, he reminds me of
like a great high school player where he's just so
much better than everybody else on the field. He's like
a high school football game and there's one D one
(02:20):
prospect and it's the quarterback and he's just running around
making all these plays. Happen. Lamar Jackson makes other great
pro football players look slow and unathletic, and that's why
I'll always defend him. He's not Mahomes and Peyton Manning
probably wasn't Brady, you know, and Mickelson wasn't Tiger Woods,
and Barkley was an MJ. Lamar Jackson is so productive.
(02:43):
He cares so much. Now, I thought, my one real
negative with Lamar Jackson you can't get hit that many times.
I'm sorry, you can't last seventeen games in the regular season,
two or three playoff games played like that. Lamar's lost weight,
he's thinner, and he took a beating to Now I
think this game means so much Lamar. He's not gonna slide,
(03:03):
He's not gonna run out of bounds against Kansas City.
So I don't think Lamar is going to play like this.
This this sort of physical football game on average. But
he took a beating tonight, and that Kansas City defense
is fast and physical that you have to reduce. You
can't play like that. But I will defend Lamar to
(03:25):
the very end. He is such a remarkable player, you know.
He just he doesn't throw the ball down the field consistently.
But he finally has a really nice group of receivers.
Isaiah likely is terrific. That's the football game and the
fact that that guy went down in the back of
the end zone. I thought he broke his ribs. I mean,
he just slammed down on the corner where it's not
(03:47):
you know, it's not padded very well, gets up and
he's making plays. What a gamer.
Speaker 2 (03:52):
You know.
Speaker 1 (03:53):
I look at my notes over the course of the game.
I think here's the really good news for Kansas City.
Last year. It's often discussed right ad nauseum that receiving
corse bad Rashi Rice was young. He felt like maybe
a two. He felt like a one tonight. You know, now,
is he a great one? Is he a top five
(04:14):
to one? Is he see the lamb? Is he Devonte Adams? No,
but he felt like a real go to, high volume,
thirteen targets nine catch guy for them they have now, Noah, great,
they've got a second tight end. Watson's around, Juju Smith,
Schuster and again Xavi are worthy. You know, I joked
when they drafted him, I'm like, he's a track guy.
He's one hundred and sixty five pounds. You know, I
(04:37):
don't think that he's going to lead them to the
super Bowl, but he adds a dimension to an offense
that since Tyreek Hill left, they don't have a downfield threat.
So you know, for the longest time of the game,
he just had that one, you know, reverse touchdown, but
blown coverage later he gets a second touchdown and you
have to account for him. You know, that's the bottom line.
Last year, you didn't have to account for anybody. Nobody
(04:59):
scared you down the field. Well, now they have a
one in Rashie Rice. They have a downfield threat. They
have multiple Watson, Noah Gray, Travis Kelcey. They've solved their
weapons issue. For the record, how the hell did Isaiah Pichecko?
What did he drop to the seventh round? How did
they get him in the seventh round? That guy's insane.
(05:20):
It's just it's amazing to me. You get to the
fourteenth player in the NBA Draft, you're out of players.
Rock Purty's the last gun I taken, and Isaiah Pichecko.
I think he was a seventh round guy. God, how
did all these gms watch film and just keep passing
on him? He's impossible to bring down run so hard
he can catch it out of the backfield. What a
(05:42):
weapon he is. So Kansas City's weapons shortage, They're going
to be fine there. And this is you're just looking
at two great organizations. I love watching these two play.
And there's a reason Kansas City keeps winning. Andy Reid,
Patrick Mahomes. You know, they led twenty to ten at
one point. I kind of felt first half, I thought
(06:06):
Baltimore was just kind of trying to find its footing.
They weren't throwing the ball down the field. Second half,
Kansas City, in that screen game, pulls away. I thought,
you know, if you watch that game, you could say
Kansas City controlled big chunks of it. And here comes
Lamar just putting the team on his back, taking too
many shots, running down the field, making big plays. The
(06:27):
guy's just an al timer, just an absolute al teimer.
But you know, sports is like this. You know, if
you take Tiger Woods out, think how many tour events
Mickelson wins. I mean, Philip, he had to have over
like forty five tour wins. Didn't he take out one guy?
Take out Barkley, and it changes take out MJ. It
(06:48):
changes Barkley's career with titles take out John Elway's career,
Joe Montana Brady. There's so many great athletes who we
spend so much time criticizing because they can't beat the ledge.
And I talked about that on FS one today. God
Lamar is just so unique and so gifted, but he
took a beating tonight, and you just can't play that way.
(07:09):
A day with Baltimore and Kansas City each to night,
all the weapons, all the talented players on the perimeter
and running backs, I kept thinking, does Buffalo match up
with these guys now that Stefan Diggs is out? Like
I'm watching all these weapons for Kansas City and Baltimore,
including their quarterbacks. You know who matches up in the
AFC Houston. Houston's got these kind of weapons, adding Joe
(07:33):
Mixonstefon Diggs, Tank Dell Nicocollins, c J.
Speaker 2 (07:39):
Stroud.
Speaker 1 (07:40):
Like I'm both these teams tonight. I mean it's tight ends,
it's wide receivers, it's slot guys, it's running backs, it's
all time quarterbacks. You know Buffalo is I like cook
a couple good tight ends, a rookie receiver. You know,
Buffalo maybe what Kansas City was last year, and they
may be weapons short. And that's why a lot of people,
myself included, kind of like Houston. I mean, at some
(08:03):
point last year may have been the year to beat
Kansas City. That may have been the year. You know,
they weren't going to have home field, They couldn't beat
you in a track meet. They had the gate, keep
the games pretty close and low scoring. Now this team's
back to I mean again, this is Worthy's first game.
(08:24):
What's xavierer Worthy going to do when week eight through
thirteen we ten through seventeen. So last year may have
been the year to get Kansas City. What a night.
I chewed two pieces of my neuro gum to stay
up tonight. I'm not messing around now. I may be
staring at the ceiling at one in the morning. That
(08:46):
was a beauty. Sometimes I feel so lucky to do
what I do for a living. I'm sitting there tonight,
I ordered door Dash, eating some Mexican food, and I'm
sitting there watching that and I'm like, I mean, this
is how good is this? Arrowhead Holmes read Harball Lamar Jackson,
and I'll just say it again. Baltimore didn't play particularly
well and it was this close, so you can sell
(09:09):
all your Ravens stock. I'm buying it. I didn't think
they played that well. I didn't think Lamar played that well.
And he's driving him down against that incredible defense, you know,
because of Reid and Mahomes, that Kansas City defense. It'll
just never get the love. It is so fast, so twitchy,
consistent pass rush, Chris Jones, edge rush, linebackers that move well.
(09:32):
That's it where Baltimore probably goes for two and has
a chance to win. When you don't play particularly well
on the road and narrowhead and almost beat the Chiefs,
I'd be worried these two will meet again. That's what
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Speaker 1 (11:20):
All Right, it's time for another season of Sharp or Square.
After quite a sabbatical, I am now working again on
almost a full time basis. Chad Milman, C COO of
the Action Network. The favorites, by the way, I have
one thousand dollars pick them contests free to play. We'll
get to that later.
Speaker 2 (11:39):
All the one hundred thousand, one hundred thousand, man, we're
giving away one hundred thousand dollars. Wow, thousand, one hundred
thous We don't do one thousand on the Volume podcast network.
We're big time.
Speaker 1 (11:53):
All of our odds provided by DraftKings. I spent a
lot of time this summer in uh, you know, in
a place out east, very close to where you live.
I played a lot of golf and during that time
a lot of time to think about odds, and I
almost did not do a first week of this. And
(12:17):
my take has been the world's changed. All these sharps
pick at these line one odds. They have all summer
to pick at these puppies. Once they're available. This is
a terrible week to bet. And then I look at
the numbers this week and I'm like, they may not
be the best, but I got a couple I like,
(12:37):
and I'm gonna start with one of them that I'm
being warned about. Arizona plus six and a half at Buffalo.
I thought the Cardinals were a tough out at the
end of last year. I think the last couple of
drafts they've hit on some playmakers. I like Kyler Murray.
I think he's hard to duplicate preparing for He's like
(13:00):
nobody else in the league. He's like to me, he's
a better version of Russell Wilson in his prime, and
Russell was pretty good. I think Arizona plus six and
a half is not only the play I think they
could win Sharper square.
Speaker 2 (13:14):
Ish like of all the games they just I'm with you, brother, Like,
I actually think there's a lot of opportunity in Week one.
Arizona is a team. I'm not gonna lie to you.
Wise guys love they think that in the NFC West.
They love Seattle, they love Mike McDonald as a coach.
(13:37):
They are really bullish on Arizona. This number actually clicked
down got down to six. It was much higher even
during the offseason. It's ticked a little bit back up.
I think there was some over exuberance on the Cardinals.
And don't forget, this is the kind of game that
the Bills historically not just cover but dominate, right, And
(14:01):
so there are so many unknowns in this game. Professional betters.
They are going to lean towards underdogs in Week one,
and that's going to be a theme for everything we're
talking about. And I've got a lot of numbers to
back it up for folks, but this one is trickier.
I think it's six and a half. Yes, if it
goes back down to six, probably, No, don't forget. Six
(14:22):
has become a lot more of a key number with
extra point sort of inaccuracy and inconsistency. So I can't
give you a definitive. I can say if I got
to play aside, I'm playing Arizona, but I don't. I
don't think it's blazon by any means.
Speaker 1 (14:38):
Okay, that wasn't my best pick. I'm just throwing shit out.
Speaker 2 (14:40):
Good good, let's warm up. Let's just warm up.
Speaker 1 (14:43):
The one I really like is Carolina plus three and
a half of the Saints. I think New Orleans is
poorly quarterbacked and poorly coached. I think they'll be the
first team to jettison their head coach. I think Carolina
massive coach upgrade. If you look at the wide receiver
nit last year worse than the league next to New England,
They've actually upgraded, so starters are now backups and it's like, oh,
(15:06):
mingo can be a three or four, not a one
or a two. I look at Carolina, I'd go money line.
I think they win this game straight out.
Speaker 2 (15:13):
Sharper square, dude, you are insu knife sharp right now.
That is you have gone from kind of med mid
as the kids like to say, to full on super sharp.
Caroline has been a team that at the Action Network
we have been hammering all off season. We have been
(15:35):
hammering their season win total over that jumped up from
four and a half to five and a half. We've
been hammering their odds to win the division. Everything about
this team last year, and you and I talked a
lot about this in previous seasons. We do this thing
called luck rankings. It's basically takes all of the randomness
of football and puts it into a formula and then
(15:56):
applies it throughout the season. Last year, the Panthers were
one of the most unlucky teams in the NFL that
is always bound to regress. In sort of very analytic terms,
they won about a game and a half less than
they should have based on the stats and the randomness
of games. So now, all of a sudden, they've improved
(16:19):
their offensive line, right, They've got a couple of new guards,
They've improved at receiver, They've improved their coaching. Let's be
very clear, Dave Canalis the new head coach, he was
the head coach. He was the coordinator in Seattle when
Gino Smith went from journeyman to pro bowler. He was
the coordinator for Tampa Bay when Baker Mayfield went from
journeyman to leading the team to the playoffs. Now, all
(16:41):
of a sudden, he's got Bryce Young, who there's a
lot of negativity about. That's why this line is so inflated.
This line was at four and a half. It's gone
down to four because wise guys are betting it. And
you cited about the Saints. There was a survey before
the seat, before we got the preseason, which fan base
had the least optimist them about their team. It was
(17:01):
the New Orleans Saints who has the shortest odds to
be fired first Dennis Allen, who is hearing footsteps from
Spencer Rattler right now Derek Carr. Dennis Allen and Derek Carr,
in their respective positions as head coach and quarterback, are
two of the worst against the spread of any grouping
(17:22):
for the past twenty years. They are terrible as favorites,
also just generally bad. Dennis Allen is historically bad as
a head coach with the minimum seventy games, which is
what he has. So you are spot on one stat
for you NFL Division underdogs in Week one since twenty fourteen.
So the Panthers as underdogs to the Saints seventy one
(17:44):
percent against the spread, not only that they cover the
spread by an average five points per game, which largely
says I agree with you. You could take a little bit
of a taste and I never mind this like a
quarter unit on the underdog to win outright, all.
Speaker 1 (17:59):
Right, concern could be a monsoon. But Commander's plus three
and a half at the Bucks. I think Tampa has
to guess what Washington's doing. They have to go watch
Arizona footage, LSU footage. Washington knows exactly what they are.
Cliff Kingsbury banged the table for Jaden Daniels. Dan Quinn
was a very good coach when he had the right coordinator.
(18:21):
I think this coordinator. I talked to a GM that
hired him, Steve Kayin. He said, Cliff is great. He said,
I don't know if he's an NFL head coach, the
discipline is an issue, but as an NFL coordinator or
a college coach, he said, I would back him forever.
This is a great role for Kingsbury. I think Washington's
personnel's fine. Tampa's guessing. I think they pull back as
(18:44):
a team this year. Tampa. I'm gonna take Commanders plus
three and a half Sharper square.
Speaker 2 (18:48):
Yeah, it's sharp. I mean it's not the favorite. Like
if I had eight bets I had to make this weekend.
This is probably seventh or eighth, right, I will be
playing the Commanders. But this team right now. I just
talked about the luck rankings the Buccaneers, and you noted
there's going to be some regression. The Buccaneers were amongst
the luckiest teams in the NFL last year and the
(19:12):
Commanders were one of the ten most unlucky. So just
the gap between these two teams is reflected, I think
in a higher than it should be points spread because
of perception. Right the Commanders number two, number three overall.
Pick the Buccaneers. They made the playoffs, they had a
good run. They have lost important aspects of that team,
specifically Dave Canalis Baker fourteen and twenty six in his
(19:36):
career as a favorite. Everything about this game says take
the Commanders, So the wise guys are with you.
Speaker 1 (19:45):
An interesting game. I don't like big favorites in the
opening week, and I think bo Nix and Sean Payton
are going to be excellent together compared to what the
market predicts. I think there were a seven win team,
not a four win team. Do not like him rookies
starting Week one on the road against a very sharp
maybe the next Demko Ryan's defensive coach Seattle. I like
(20:09):
Pete Carroll last two years they underwhelmed. They have better talent.
I mean offensively, it's Noah's Ark. Two receivers, two tight ends,
two running backs, two tackles. I like everything. I think
Seattle minus six is to play. This is a rough spot,
and I like bo Nicks. This is a rough opening week.
I take Seattle minus six.
Speaker 2 (20:29):
Yeah, look, that's the exact right spot. Historically, rookie quarterbacks
on the road are just terrible. Rookie first round picks
on the road average eighteen points per game the past
ten years. It is not a good spot. There is
a lot of professional better love for Mike McDonald. They
(20:51):
loved the game plans he put together when he was
the defensive coordinator in Baltimore. They are expecting a much
better defense in Seattle. I think that's what you're seeing
here is just a little bit of a difference in
talent on the roster historically. Wise guys, they don't like
to bet against Sean Payton that they like. Sean Payton
(21:11):
is their favorite coach right along with Mike Tomlin. But
Mike McDonald's in the spot like they look at him
not as a rookie head coach in a lot of ways,
the way that people looked at Tamiko Ryes last year.
They got a lot of faith in what he can do.
So Whise guys, you're with you.
Speaker 1 (21:24):
I'm gonna take Jets plus four and a half against
the Niners. It's a noisy game the Baggage Bowl, but
Trent Williams can't be in great shape. I do worry
about Hassan Reddick not in camp because they lost Huff
to the Eagles, but I don't worry too much about
pass rush. I don't like the Niners offensive line, especially
(21:46):
when Trent just gets back into camp. That feels like
it's just too rich. I don't know if they win,
but god, I don't get the line at all. I
would take the Jets plus four and a half, sharp, square.
Speaker 2 (22:01):
Totally sharp. It's what's really interesting about this, Colin is
since Trent Williams signed, the line has moved a full
point from three and a half to four and a half.
That's how much bookmakers and then the public betters believe
Trent Williams was worth. They have steamed this line up,
(22:22):
and wise guys are happy to take to four and
a half. You mentioned the offensive line for to the
forty nine ers. That's the weakness of their team, right
And even with Trump Williams, who is probably the best
left tackle in the NFL, they are able to mask
that weakness because Kyle Shanahan's scheme is so good in
the way he can move the ball around that they're
able to get away with having an offensive line that
(22:44):
is a little bit mediocre. The Jets have one of
the best defensive lines in the NFL, and I agree
with you about Hassan Raddick. The guy hasn't played for
the Jets at all, so they don't really know what
they're missing. And obviously Bryce hoff being gone is an impact,
but they have a doubt defensive line. They will find
a way to get to the quarterback against this offensive line.
(23:06):
The wise guys love love the Jets in this spot.
Speaker 1 (23:11):
All right, another game. I never trust the Browns, ever,
I love their coach, and I have real questions about
the depth of Dallas's offensive talent. I worry about blocking
Miles Garrett, But god, I know what I get from
(23:31):
Dak and Mike McCarthy. I don't know what the hell
I get with Deshaun Watson. I get Dallas plus two
and a half. I'm gonna take them. I'm gonna take
I'm gonna take the Cowboys. Sharper square.
Speaker 2 (23:43):
Yeah, it's sharp, but not a lot of conviction. Like
it's not you know, I just said, there's probably eight best.
Speaker 1 (23:49):
My voice told you I didn't have a lot of conviction.
Speaker 2 (23:51):
Yeah, you don't have a lot of conviction. I'm actually
surprised you chose it. I don't know if you feel
like you got to talk about the Cowboys is like
the lowest common denominator as a member of the meeting.
But it's not a game that I'm excited about, like
as a better for all the reasons you just said.
I think the Cowboys are are the Houston Rockets circa
twenty twelve of the NFL, right, a lot of talent.
(24:15):
They're great in the regular season, fall apart when it matters.
I'm not a buyer on McCarthy. I just don't think
he's a very good coach. I think what you said
about the lack of depth on offense is a real issue,
and that's continued to be an issue for the past
couple of years. Listen the Browns defense last year at
home historic Miles Garrett. We just talked about Trent Williams
(24:36):
being a line changer when it comes to moving the
point spread. Miles Garrett is like that. Miles Garrett is
the kind of defensive force from a betting perspective and
from a line making perspective that JJ Watt was about
twelve years ago. Book makers have to account for his
presence with a point half a point in terms of
the spread. But we don't know anything about Deshaun Watson.
(24:58):
And also, I will tell you one other thing that
I think is sticking out in people's minds. From a
professional betting point of view. Bill Callahan is an offensive
line coach genius, and he is one of the reasons
why that Brown's team. They could lose Nick Chubb, they
could lose any running back, get someone back in there,
and anybody who's going to make that team produce. I
love Kevin Stefanski too. He left. He went to the
(25:20):
Titans to work with his son, who's now the head
coach at the Titans. So I do think the wise
guys are on the Cowboys, but no one's banging the drum,
being like rushing the counter. I gotta get on the
Cowboys right now.
Speaker 1 (25:31):
Okay, this one's painful for me to make because.
Speaker 2 (25:35):
I am really beast kind.
Speaker 1 (25:37):
I know, I really want to see the Bears flourish,
and I think they will. But God, if the line
goes to plus four for the Titans, rookie quarterback Titans
plus the points you're shaking your head Sharper square.
Speaker 2 (25:52):
It's totally sharp. And look, it pains me as Chicago
in as someone who loves this team so much and
was weepy eyed watching all of the hard knocks stuff,
seeing the team walk in and out of Hollis Hall,
practicing in Lake Forest, the introductions, making it feel like
(26:16):
this is the premier franchise in the NFL because of
its history, even though we've only won one Super Bowl. Dude,
this hype is just too much. I mean, it's still
a team that has not breached five hundred and god
knows how long. It's still a team with a rookie quarterback.
It's now a team where if you want to bet
(26:38):
on the Bear season win total, you got to bet
that they're going to be over five hundred. A rookie
quarterback in a division that has the Packers, who a
lot of people think could go to the super Bowl,
the Lions, who a lot of people think should be
the number one seed in the NFC this year. Like,
this is a lot And I know Caleb Williams says
I don't get nervous before games, he should get nervous
(27:00):
because this Tennessee team has improved at every single place
they need to improve. They've gotten much better in the
defensive backfield with Lugerious Snead. They've gotten better at receiver.
They have improved their offensive line, not just in scheme
and talent, but with coaching. I worry about the Bears
in this spot, way way too much hype and enthusiasm.
(27:20):
All right.
Speaker 1 (27:21):
We always end with a game that I missed, but
also a game that I don't have the courage to bet,
but I just want your opinion. Sam Darnold minus points
on the road scares me, but god, the Giants are bad.
Minnesota minus two. I think I'd swallow the two with Minnesota.
Talk me in or out of that game.
Speaker 2 (27:43):
No, you don't want to swallow the two of Minnesota.
You want to take the Giants and look, this one
is divided. I'm not going to lie to you. Simon
Hunter and I do the Favorites podcast on the Volume
Podcast Networks. We will always do a segment called Sharp
Calls where professional betters who listen to our show on
Tuesday will call us on Wednesday and tell us everything
they agree with, then everything they disagree with. It is
(28:04):
the greatest peanut gallery in the world. When we did
our Thursday show and we did the sharp Call segment,
this was the biggest division was half the group was
on the Vikings. Half the group is on the Giants.
I feel like Simon and I are in a bit
of a foxhole with this game. I like the Giants.
I actually have bet the Vikings fifteen to one for
(28:25):
the worst record in the NFL this year. Their schedule
after they play the Giant Goal Niners, Texans, Packers, Jets,
this team, if they don't win against the Giants, they
could be winless when we get to the end of October.
So I like the Giants. Here. There's some really important
trends that we actually haven't gotten to yet that I
think are really important. Underdogs between one and five and
(28:48):
a half points in Week one since twenty eighteen covered
a sixty four percent clip. It's a pretty big sample
size for more than one hundred and fifty games, so
and favorites of one to three and a half points
cover only forty three percent at the time in September,
So we've got pretty good trends when we talk about
bettings weeks one, especially as you were discussing when we
(29:09):
open the segment that show you why you can take
advantage and why you want to bet underdogs. This is
also a really interesting coach matchup to me right two
years ago. These guys are the Bell of the Ball
and day Ball wins Coach of the Year. Both of
these teams are winning games that are less than one
score games and they're winning them consistently. They play each
(29:30):
other in the playoffs, day Ball and Daniel Jones going
to Minnesota. They beat Kirk Cousins and Kevin O'Donnell, Kevin O'Connell,
and so there's a lot of sentiment that Brian Dayball
is a really good coach, and then last year everything
falls apart for both of them. So I do think
there's a little bit too much hate on the Giants
right now and a little bit too much credit on
(29:51):
the Vikings. Sam Darnold should not be a road favorite ever,
He shouldn't be a road favorite in any scenario. He
just shouldn't. So you got to take the Giants.
Speaker 1 (30:04):
Okay, finally a game I missed. I am betting you
it's Colts plus the points. I know it's the Colt plus.
The point is it of.
Speaker 2 (30:13):
Course it is. I knew, Yeah, it's one hundred percent
the Colts plus I think you can get them plus
three some places plus three and a half. Now this
line was two and a half forty eight hours ago.
The public is steaming in on the Texans and the
wise guys are buying on the Colts, and look, it's
(30:36):
a little tricky. Anthony Richardson has basically played like seventeen
games a quarterback I know, since high school. I know, right,
And then you got the Texans who look like they
are all world. But I do want to give some
context here. The Texans do not win the AFC South
if Trevor Lawrence doesn't get injured. The Colts almost made
(30:57):
the playoffs with Gardner Minshew playing the majority of the
games last season. I think Shane steiken is a genius
as a coach, and what he did with Minshew and
what he was starting to do with Anthony Richardson is brilliant.
And I think the level of play that the Eagles
had last year on offense and what you saw from
(31:18):
the Colts is a direct correlation between Shane Steikeen being
an Indie and not being with Philly anymore. I think
there's a huge advantage there also to repeat division underdogs
thirty seven to fifteen and one against spread in week
one since twenty fourteen. That's seventy one percent. This is
a really good spot for the Colts against a overvalued
(31:40):
Texans team.
Speaker 1 (31:43):
I want you to just give my audience something here,
just entertain me and make my audience smarter. So I
think the Rams the last two years, last year and
this year are undervalued. But their old line is a
bit of a musical chair situation. Sean McVeagh and Stafford
(32:03):
getting three and a half against an average defense feels
like stealing money. But I'm really reticent in this spot.
I don't like their old line Hutchison had according to
you know, all the Lion news. They're like, he's now
the best defensive rush end of the league. He's just
tearing it up. I look at this line, I think
McVeigh Stafford plus three and a half. But there's something
(32:27):
that tells me, stay away, educate me.
Speaker 2 (32:32):
Your instincts are spot on, and this was the hardest game.
The other bet that we do on the podcast, it's
called our Big Balls Bet of the Week, and it's
the bet we know it's hard to make, but you
one hundred percent have to have the courage to make it.
This week it is the Detroit Lions minus three and
(32:54):
a half over the Los Angeles Rams. And who likes
to bet a favorite in any scenario, especially when I've
given you all these trends. But here's the thing about
these trends. Fifty eight percent, sixty one percent, What that
really means is that, yeah, you're going to have an
edge if you bet at long term. What I'm trying
to do here is thread the needle and catch a
(33:15):
falling knife, where the other forty percent of the time right,
it doesn't work right right? And so look, I love
the Rams and we have made so much money on
the Rams the past couple of years because I do
think Matthew Stafford is probably the most, if it's possible,
the most underrated quarterback. He never gets into the conversation
(33:35):
of top three, top four, and he should. You If
there was a great video this fall this offseason, a C. J.
Shaud talking about quarterbacks he likes to watch, it was
Matthew Stafford. NFL players loving Matthew Stafford. He is a gamer.
And what he did last year when Cooper Cup was
out and turned Puka Nakua into an all world receiver.
He is brilliant and I really want to bet the Rams,
(33:58):
but here's the problem, and I want to fade the
life because the variance is so high when you're betting
on a Dan Campbell team, because of the way he
goes forward on fourth down, which can always bite you,
as it did in the NFC title game. And when
the Niners came back, they are so foundationally good. And
when I bet, and when a lot of professionals bet,
(34:19):
they bet from inside out. They look at the offensive line,
they look at the defensive line. That's where they start.
They don't start on the edges, they don't start with
the quarterbacks. They start foundationally. The lines are one of
a few teams with top five offensive line, top five
defensive line. Pinasuel on one side. Then you mentioned Aden Hutchinson.
I bet Ada Hutchinson fourteen to one to lead the
(34:40):
league in sacks. Everything coming out of camp was how
this guy has gotten better and better. And last year
he was dominant no matter what the situation was, no
matter how often he was being double teams, he consistently
got pressure on quarterbacks, even if it wasn't always a sack.
So if you look at those things, I'm like, wait
a second. Aaron Donald retired offensive line for the Rams
(35:02):
in trouble. Jared Goff undefeated against the spread to start
the season in his career, Jared Goff twenty five to
nine against spread in doors. Jared Goff the most profitable
quarterback against the spread the past five years. Dan Campbell
the most profitable coach against the spread the past five years.
(35:25):
I know, like it's hard to bet on a more
than a field goal favorite in a game that ended
as a very short win for the Lions last year
in the playoffs, I think the Lions have gotten better.
I think the Rams have stagnated or a little bit less,
a little bit worse because their talent isn't as good.
So it hurts, But I'm on the lines.
Speaker 1 (35:49):
Sharper Square, all odds provided by DraftKings. The favorites have
a one hundred thousand dollars pick them contest, and it's
free to play, which is sounds like a bad business
move by you. You should charge people.
Speaker 2 (36:05):
Colin Listen, we're on the Volume podcast network. We want
to engage as many people as possible and if it's
going to cost us money. We don't care if we
look good. You look good. That's what we care about.
Anybody can play. And here's what's fun. Me and Simon,
we will make our five picks. We enter the contest.
We talk about the picks we're going to enter on
(36:26):
our show. People love to compete against us. So you
enter five picks every week you can win be part
of the one hundred thousand dollars prize pool. Favorites Dot
Actionnetwork dot Com is the sign up and by the way,
we give away one thousand a week to the person
with the best record. So we're giving money away all
(36:47):
season long in our effort to make the Volume podcast
Network the biggest podcast network in the world. Go sign up,
win one hundred brand favorites Dot Action Network dot com.
Speaker 1 (36:58):
Yeah, the Favorites is the absolute best sports gambling pod
in the country. We love having you guys back and God,
I'm gonna go buy a jet ski on that Panthers pick.
Speaker 2 (37:13):
I love.
Speaker 1 (37:13):
That's my pick of the week.
Speaker 2 (37:15):
But here's the problem. Here's the problem. It might not
go our way. And that's okay. It's okay because in
the long run, we got to play the fundamentals and
like it might not work this weekend, over the long run,
it's gonna work out. But man, I am like so
invested in this Panthers team. I am so nervous about
(37:37):
this game. I'm nervous about the Lions game. I'm nervous
about the Jets game. I'm nervous about the Colts game,
and the Giants game. I'm sick to my stomach. Brother,
all right, buddy, seasons back.
Speaker 1 (37:48):
It is one of the more interesting games this weekend
is Colorado and Deon Sanders and all he brings to
the table at Nebraska. Now, Travis Hunter and Shador Sanders
(38:11):
for the Buffaloes are the two best players in the game,
and they alone may be able to carry Colorado to
the win. But I like Nebraska for a lot of reasons.
Number one is, if you go to last year, nobody
lost more close games down the stretch than Nebraska. They
were close. They needed a couple of transfers, They needed
(38:33):
to get a little older on the defensive side. It
didn't matter if it was Iowa, it was Maryland, it
was Michigan State. They lost by a field goal. It
felt like every week, and they were shooting themselves in
the foot with a lot of ugly turnovers. This defense
now is different. Six seniors, five junior start and that
matters a lot of starts against the Colorado offense and
(38:57):
offensive line that I haven't for the last couple of years. Again,
Colorado's got the two best players in this game, maybe
the three or four. Best depth experience. I like Nebraska.
The other thing is that Colorado has by and large
last three matchups as at one. Nebraska's not overlooking anybody. Also,
(39:22):
I tend to look at programs. I think there's baby steps.
I think when you take over a program, first of all,
the first sign you're doing it right is you're closing
the gap. Nebraska last year close losses. Generally those kind
of teams the following year start turning those into close wins,
and then the following year, if you have the right
(39:42):
coach and the right players, you have decisive wins. I
don't think Nebraska is in a decisive win territory yet
against the better teams on their schedule, but I don't
think Colorado is one of the better teams on their schedule.
I like Nebraska by ten points. I think their defense,
though it won't be a perfect game, a Shadure Sanders.
He moves well. I really like him. I mean, I
(40:05):
almost feel like if Shaudure Sanders, if you're gonna judge
him just on football, he can be the number one
pick in the draft. His ability to place the ball,
moving pocket, moving left, moving right, moving forward. He has
tremendous ball placement, and he's kind of what everybody's looking for.
He can win in the pocket, he can win off script.
(40:25):
So I think Colorado is going to score some points
to be a handful. But I think Matt Ruhle situationally,
is a better coach than Dion. Dion's a bigger present.
Dion may be a better recruiter, But I mean Nebraska
was I looked it up this morning. Top thirty and
tackles for loss last season, and now this defense six seniors,
five juniors, is even older. They got that new quarterback,
(40:48):
Dylan Reyola. They like him. They are more than capable
at quarterback. He's not Shoudour Sanders, but he's fine Nebraska
at home, more experienced defense, Matt rule losing close to
now winning close. I'm gonna take him by about eight
to ten points here litll thirty three twenty four kind
(41:10):
of feels like that to me. I like the Huskers.
All right, the game of the day, it's on Fox.
Is Texas their first ever meeting in the Big House
against Michigan. It's remarkable to think about two brands that
big that have never faced in the big house. Listen,
I was a Michigan believer all last year. I mean,
(41:30):
Harbaugh on the sidelines are not They were hammering people.
But Michigan lost eight of eleven offensive starters, a star quarterback,
a star receiver, a star back, top offensive lineman, and
those were also in many instances leaders. So not only
do you lose Jim Harbaugh, which I think the cultural
vibe of the toughest physicality will remain even if this
(41:53):
coach isn't the right coach. My feeling is, I mean
Mark Helfrich wasn't the perfect fit for Chip Kelly, but
for a year you couldn't tell the difference. I think
there's a lot of momentum program momentum for Michigan, but
they just lost too many leaders and too much firepower
on offense, and I think they're a team that will
be able to win a certain way. I think Texas
(42:16):
can win anyway, shootout close. They're better at quarterback. Now.
They lost three receivers to the NFL, but it's Texas,
it's Sark. I don't worry about the offense. I talked
to Sark this week. He said it's hard for him
to differentiate in some instances starters from backups with Texas,
and we tend to rush to a judgment with these
(42:37):
high profile coaches A Kiffin, A Sark, A Lincoln Riley,
a Harbaugh, you can't. This stuff takes two and three years,
even with big brands to get up to speed. So
you're in the Ohio state class, you're in the Georgia
and Alabama class. This is the first time I look
at Texas and think, yeah, they can go toe to
toe with anybody. I didn't like him on the back
(42:59):
end last year. Washington exposed that. Michael Pennix exposed that.
I think Texas has a chance to play for the
national championship. I think they bring back more experience that
offensive line for Texas. Now that's some first and second
round talent. That's a lot of starts. They may have
some new receivers, a new back. That's a lot of starts.
And Quinn Ewers from diet to his play on the
(43:21):
field is a little bit more structured to me last
year than what I saw initially. Was not a big fan, initially,
just played to loose to J Cutler. To me, I
like Texas here now again. I think it's a pretty
low scoring game. I think Michigan has some top defenders
are at home. Even good college teams can struggle away
(43:41):
from home. I looked at this morning. It opened at
Texas minus four, it's now Texas minus seven. I think
the Longhorns win. I think it's probably pretty close. But
I think you'll watch that game and from a more
dynamic offense to the better quarterback, I think you're going
to feel like Texas. They may stumble a little early,
(44:01):
intimidating big house. I think they pull away late a
little bit like how Michigan beat Ohio State last couple
of years, physicality leaned on them late third quarter on.
You're going to feel like the better team, the better roster,
the better chance in the National Championship is Texas. I
like the Horns here by about six the volume. Thanks
(44:23):
so much for listening. If you've enjoyed the podcast, take
a moment rate and review
The volume. All right, Chad Milman's about to stop by.
Before we start with Chad, grab your smartphone download the
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game Time Today. What time is it? Game Time Immediate reaction.
(00:53):
If you wonder why the NFL is king on television
twenty seven to twenty tonight was a great example decided
by that much a toe decides the game. Listen. Baltimore
was outplayed for big chunks of this thing and almost
almost tied it. They almost certainly would have gone for
(01:15):
two in the win. And that's why Baltimore is so dangerous.
You know. Lamar Jackson did not throw the ball down
the field effectively, nor has he ever as well as
Patrick Mahomes, although Mahomes did not throw the ball down
the field much last year because it was one of
the worst receiving cores in the league. With Worthy, now
that's a deep threat. They've added some dimensions and over
(01:37):
the top receiver Juju Smith Schuster will become more productive
over time. He just got reacquired, so Watson Rice now
where she Rice looks like a number one. Worthy's going
to be a gadget guy early. I don't think he's
a heavy volume guy, a nine to ten catch guy,
but he adds an element they didn't have. He's an
over the top playmaker. But it's interesting watching ball the
(02:00):
more they had a lot of offensive penalties, especially early
in the game. They don't throw the ball down the
field enough. And then you get that final drive by
Lamar Jackson, where I mean, honestly, he reminds me of
like a great high school player where he's just so
much better than everybody else on the field. He's like
a high school football game and there's one D one
(02:20):
prospect and it's the quarterback and he's just running around
making all these plays. Happen. Lamar Jackson makes other great
pro football players look slow and unathletic, and that's why
I'll always defend him. He's not Mahomes and Peyton Manning
probably wasn't Brady, you know, and Mickelson wasn't Tiger Woods,
and Barkley was an MJ. Lamar Jackson is so productive.
(02:43):
He cares so much. Now, I thought, my one real
negative with Lamar Jackson you can't get hit that many times.
I'm sorry, you can't last seventeen games in the regular season,
two or three playoff games played like that. Lamar's lost weight,
he's thinner, and he took a beating to Now I
think this game means so much Lamar. He's not gonna slide,
(03:03):
He's not gonna run out of bounds against Kansas City.
So I don't think Lamar is going to play like this.
This this sort of physical football game on average. But
he took a beating tonight, and that Kansas City defense
is fast and physical that you have to reduce. You
can't play like that. But I will defend Lamar to
(03:25):
the very end. He is such a remarkable player, you know.
He just he doesn't throw the ball down the field consistently.
But he finally has a really nice group of receivers.
Isaiah likely is terrific. That's the football game and the
fact that that guy went down in the back of
the end zone. I thought he broke his ribs. I mean,
he just slammed down on the corner where it's not
(03:47):
you know, it's not padded very well, gets up and
he's making plays. What a gamer.
Speaker 2 (03:52):
You know.
Speaker 1 (03:53):
I look at my notes over the course of the game.
I think here's the really good news for Kansas City.
Last year. It's often discussed right ad nauseum that receiving
corse bad Rashi Rice was young. He felt like maybe
a two. He felt like a one tonight. You know, now,
is he a great one? Is he a top five
(04:14):
to one? Is he see the lamb? Is he Devonte Adams? No,
but he felt like a real go to, high volume,
thirteen targets nine catch guy for them they have now, Noah, great,
they've got a second tight end. Watson's around, Juju Smith,
Schuster and again Xavi are worthy. You know, I joked
when they drafted him, I'm like, he's a track guy.
He's one hundred and sixty five pounds. You know, I
(04:37):
don't think that he's going to lead them to the
super Bowl, but he adds a dimension to an offense
that since Tyreek Hill left, they don't have a downfield threat.
So you know, for the longest time of the game,
he just had that one, you know, reverse touchdown, but
blown coverage later he gets a second touchdown and you
have to account for him. You know, that's the bottom line.
Last year, you didn't have to account for anybody. Nobody
(04:59):
scared you down the field. Well, now they have a
one in Rashie Rice. They have a downfield threat. They
have multiple Watson, Noah Gray, Travis Kelcey. They've solved their
weapons issue. For the record, how the hell did Isaiah Pichecko?
What did he drop to the seventh round? How did
they get him in the seventh round? That guy's insane.
(05:20):
It's just it's amazing to me. You get to the
fourteenth player in the NBA Draft, you're out of players.
Rock Purty's the last gun I taken, and Isaiah Pichecko.
I think he was a seventh round guy. God, how
did all these gms watch film and just keep passing
on him? He's impossible to bring down run so hard
he can catch it out of the backfield. What a
(05:42):
weapon he is. So Kansas City's weapons shortage, They're going
to be fine there. And this is you're just looking
at two great organizations. I love watching these two play.
And there's a reason Kansas City keeps winning. Andy Reid,
Patrick Mahomes. You know, they led twenty to ten at
one point. I kind of felt first half, I thought
(06:06):
Baltimore was just kind of trying to find its footing.
They weren't throwing the ball down the field. Second half,
Kansas City, in that screen game, pulls away. I thought,
you know, if you watch that game, you could say
Kansas City controlled big chunks of it. And here comes
Lamar just putting the team on his back, taking too
many shots, running down the field, making big plays. The
(06:27):
guy's just an al timer, just an absolute al teimer.
But you know, sports is like this. You know, if
you take Tiger Woods out, think how many tour events
Mickelson wins. I mean, Philip, he had to have over
like forty five tour wins. Didn't he take out one guy?
Take out Barkley, and it changes take out MJ. It
(06:48):
changes Barkley's career with titles take out John Elway's career,
Joe Montana Brady. There's so many great athletes who we
spend so much time criticizing because they can't beat the ledge.
And I talked about that on FS one today. God
Lamar is just so unique and so gifted, but he
took a beating tonight, and you just can't play that way.
(07:09):
A day with Baltimore and Kansas City each to night,
all the weapons, all the talented players on the perimeter
and running backs, I kept thinking, does Buffalo match up
with these guys now that Stefan Diggs is out? Like
I'm watching all these weapons for Kansas City and Baltimore,
including their quarterbacks. You know who matches up in the
AFC Houston. Houston's got these kind of weapons, adding Joe
(07:33):
Mixonstefon Diggs, Tank Dell Nicocollins, c J.
Speaker 2 (07:39):
Stroud.
Speaker 1 (07:40):
Like I'm both these teams tonight. I mean it's tight ends,
it's wide receivers, it's slot guys, it's running backs, it's
all time quarterbacks. You know Buffalo is I like cook
a couple good tight ends, a rookie receiver. You know,
Buffalo maybe what Kansas City was last year, and they
may be weapons short. And that's why a lot of people,
myself included, kind of like Houston. I mean, at some
(08:03):
point last year may have been the year to beat
Kansas City. That may have been the year. You know,
they weren't going to have home field, They couldn't beat
you in a track meet. They had the gate, keep
the games pretty close and low scoring. Now this team's
back to I mean again, this is Worthy's first game.
(08:24):
What's xavierer Worthy going to do when week eight through
thirteen we ten through seventeen. So last year may have
been the year to get Kansas City. What a night.
I chewed two pieces of my neuro gum to stay
up tonight. I'm not messing around now. I may be
staring at the ceiling at one in the morning. That
(08:46):
was a beauty. Sometimes I feel so lucky to do
what I do for a living. I'm sitting there tonight,
I ordered door Dash, eating some Mexican food, and I'm
sitting there watching that and I'm like, I mean, this
is how good is this? Arrowhead Holmes read Harball Lamar Jackson,
and I'll just say it again. Baltimore didn't play particularly
well and it was this close, so you can sell
(09:09):
all your Ravens stock. I'm buying it. I didn't think
they played that well. I didn't think Lamar played that well.
And he's driving him down against that incredible defense, you know,
because of Reid and Mahomes, that Kansas City defense. It'll
just never get the love. It is so fast, so twitchy,
consistent pass rush, Chris Jones, edge rush, linebackers that move well.
(09:32):
That's it where Baltimore probably goes for two and has
a chance to win. When you don't play particularly well
on the road and narrowhead and almost beat the Chiefs,
I'd be worried these two will meet again. That's what
it feels like to me. NFL Week one is here
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Speaker 1 (11:20):
All Right, it's time for another season of Sharp or Square.
After quite a sabbatical, I am now working again on
almost a full time basis. Chad Milman, C COO of
the Action Network. The favorites, by the way, I have
one thousand dollars pick them contests free to play. We'll
get to that later.
Speaker 2 (11:39):
All the one hundred thousand, one hundred thousand, man, we're
giving away one hundred thousand dollars. Wow, thousand, one hundred
thous We don't do one thousand on the Volume podcast network.
We're big time.
Speaker 1 (11:53):
All of our odds provided by DraftKings. I spent a
lot of time this summer in uh, you know, in
a place out east, very close to where you live.
I played a lot of golf and during that time
a lot of time to think about odds, and I
almost did not do a first week of this. And
(12:17):
my take has been the world's changed. All these sharps
pick at these line one odds. They have all summer
to pick at these puppies. Once they're available. This is
a terrible week to bet. And then I look at
the numbers this week and I'm like, they may not
be the best, but I got a couple I like,
(12:37):
and I'm gonna start with one of them that I'm
being warned about. Arizona plus six and a half at Buffalo.
I thought the Cardinals were a tough out at the
end of last year. I think the last couple of
drafts they've hit on some playmakers. I like Kyler Murray.
I think he's hard to duplicate preparing for He's like
(13:00):
nobody else in the league. He's like to me, he's
a better version of Russell Wilson in his prime, and
Russell was pretty good. I think Arizona plus six and
a half is not only the play I think they
could win Sharper square.
Speaker 2 (13:14):
Ish like of all the games they just I'm with you, brother, Like,
I actually think there's a lot of opportunity in Week one.
Arizona is a team. I'm not gonna lie to you.
Wise guys love they think that in the NFC West.
They love Seattle, they love Mike McDonald as a coach.
(13:37):
They are really bullish on Arizona. This number actually clicked
down got down to six. It was much higher even
during the offseason. It's ticked a little bit back up.
I think there was some over exuberance on the Cardinals.
And don't forget, this is the kind of game that
the Bills historically not just cover but dominate, right, And
(14:01):
so there are so many unknowns in this game. Professional betters.
They are going to lean towards underdogs in Week one,
and that's going to be a theme for everything we're
talking about. And I've got a lot of numbers to
back it up for folks, but this one is trickier.
I think it's six and a half. Yes, if it
goes back down to six, probably, No, don't forget. Six
(14:22):
has become a lot more of a key number with
extra point sort of inaccuracy and inconsistency. So I can't
give you a definitive. I can say if I got
to play aside, I'm playing Arizona, but I don't. I
don't think it's blazon by any means.
Speaker 1 (14:38):
Okay, that wasn't my best pick. I'm just throwing shit out.
Speaker 2 (14:40):
Good good, let's warm up. Let's just warm up.
Speaker 1 (14:43):
The one I really like is Carolina plus three and
a half of the Saints. I think New Orleans is
poorly quarterbacked and poorly coached. I think they'll be the
first team to jettison their head coach. I think Carolina
massive coach upgrade. If you look at the wide receiver
nit last year worse than the league next to New England,
They've actually upgraded, so starters are now backups and it's like, oh,
(15:06):
mingo can be a three or four, not a one
or a two. I look at Carolina, I'd go money line.
I think they win this game straight out.
Speaker 2 (15:13):
Sharper square, dude, you are insu knife sharp right now.
That is you have gone from kind of med mid
as the kids like to say, to full on super sharp.
Caroline has been a team that at the Action Network
we have been hammering all off season. We have been
(15:35):
hammering their season win total over that jumped up from
four and a half to five and a half. We've
been hammering their odds to win the division. Everything about
this team last year, and you and I talked a
lot about this in previous seasons. We do this thing
called luck rankings. It's basically takes all of the randomness
of football and puts it into a formula and then
(15:56):
applies it throughout the season. Last year, the Panthers were
one of the most unlucky teams in the NFL that
is always bound to regress. In sort of very analytic terms,
they won about a game and a half less than
they should have based on the stats and the randomness
of games. So now, all of a sudden, they've improved
(16:19):
their offensive line, right, They've got a couple of new guards,
They've improved at receiver, They've improved their coaching. Let's be
very clear, Dave Canalis the new head coach, he was
the head coach. He was the coordinator in Seattle when
Gino Smith went from journeyman to pro bowler. He was
the coordinator for Tampa Bay when Baker Mayfield went from
journeyman to leading the team to the playoffs. Now, all
(16:41):
of a sudden, he's got Bryce Young, who there's a
lot of negativity about. That's why this line is so inflated.
This line was at four and a half. It's gone
down to four because wise guys are betting it. And
you cited about the Saints. There was a survey before
the seat, before we got the preseason, which fan base
had the least optimist them about their team. It was
(17:01):
the New Orleans Saints who has the shortest odds to
be fired first Dennis Allen, who is hearing footsteps from
Spencer Rattler right now Derek Carr. Dennis Allen and Derek Carr,
in their respective positions as head coach and quarterback, are
two of the worst against the spread of any grouping
(17:22):
for the past twenty years. They are terrible as favorites,
also just generally bad. Dennis Allen is historically bad as
a head coach with the minimum seventy games, which is
what he has. So you are spot on one stat
for you NFL Division underdogs in Week one since twenty fourteen.
So the Panthers as underdogs to the Saints seventy one
(17:44):
percent against the spread, not only that they cover the
spread by an average five points per game, which largely
says I agree with you. You could take a little bit
of a taste and I never mind this like a
quarter unit on the underdog to win outright, all.
Speaker 1 (17:59):
Right, concern could be a monsoon. But Commander's plus three
and a half at the Bucks. I think Tampa has
to guess what Washington's doing. They have to go watch
Arizona footage, LSU footage. Washington knows exactly what they are.
Cliff Kingsbury banged the table for Jaden Daniels. Dan Quinn
was a very good coach when he had the right coordinator.
(18:21):
I think this coordinator. I talked to a GM that
hired him, Steve Kayin. He said, Cliff is great. He said,
I don't know if he's an NFL head coach, the
discipline is an issue, but as an NFL coordinator or
a college coach, he said, I would back him forever.
This is a great role for Kingsbury. I think Washington's
personnel's fine. Tampa's guessing. I think they pull back as
(18:44):
a team this year. Tampa. I'm gonna take Commanders plus
three and a half Sharper square.
Speaker 2 (18:48):
Yeah, it's sharp. I mean it's not the favorite. Like
if I had eight bets I had to make this weekend.
This is probably seventh or eighth, right, I will be
playing the Commanders. But this team right now. I just
talked about the luck rankings the Buccaneers, and you noted
there's going to be some regression. The Buccaneers were amongst
the luckiest teams in the NFL last year and the
(19:12):
Commanders were one of the ten most unlucky. So just
the gap between these two teams is reflected, I think
in a higher than it should be points spread because
of perception. Right the Commanders number two, number three overall.
Pick the Buccaneers. They made the playoffs, they had a
good run. They have lost important aspects of that team,
specifically Dave Canalis Baker fourteen and twenty six in his
(19:36):
career as a favorite. Everything about this game says take
the Commanders, So the wise guys are with you.
Speaker 1 (19:45):
An interesting game. I don't like big favorites in the
opening week, and I think bo Nix and Sean Payton
are going to be excellent together compared to what the
market predicts. I think there were a seven win team,
not a four win team. Do not like him rookies
starting Week one on the road against a very sharp
maybe the next Demko Ryan's defensive coach Seattle. I like
(20:09):
Pete Carroll last two years they underwhelmed. They have better talent.
I mean offensively, it's Noah's Ark. Two receivers, two tight ends,
two running backs, two tackles. I like everything. I think
Seattle minus six is to play. This is a rough spot,
and I like bo Nicks. This is a rough opening week.
I take Seattle minus six.
Speaker 2 (20:29):
Yeah, look, that's the exact right spot. Historically, rookie quarterbacks
on the road are just terrible. Rookie first round picks
on the road average eighteen points per game the past
ten years. It is not a good spot. There is
a lot of professional better love for Mike McDonald. They
(20:51):
loved the game plans he put together when he was
the defensive coordinator in Baltimore. They are expecting a much
better defense in Seattle. I think that's what you're seeing
here is just a little bit of a difference in
talent on the roster historically. Wise guys, they don't like
to bet against Sean Payton that they like. Sean Payton
(21:11):
is their favorite coach right along with Mike Tomlin. But
Mike McDonald's in the spot like they look at him
not as a rookie head coach in a lot of ways,
the way that people looked at Tamiko Ryes last year.
They got a lot of faith in what he can do.
So Whise guys, you're with you.
Speaker 1 (21:24):
I'm gonna take Jets plus four and a half against
the Niners. It's a noisy game the Baggage Bowl, but
Trent Williams can't be in great shape. I do worry
about Hassan Reddick not in camp because they lost Huff
to the Eagles, but I don't worry too much about
pass rush. I don't like the Niners offensive line, especially
(21:46):
when Trent just gets back into camp. That feels like
it's just too rich. I don't know if they win,
but god, I don't get the line at all. I
would take the Jets plus four and a half, sharp, square.
Speaker 2 (22:01):
Totally sharp. It's what's really interesting about this, Colin is
since Trent Williams signed, the line has moved a full
point from three and a half to four and a half.
That's how much bookmakers and then the public betters believe
Trent Williams was worth. They have steamed this line up,
(22:22):
and wise guys are happy to take to four and
a half. You mentioned the offensive line for to the
forty nine ers. That's the weakness of their team, right
And even with Trump Williams, who is probably the best
left tackle in the NFL, they are able to mask
that weakness because Kyle Shanahan's scheme is so good in
the way he can move the ball around that they're
able to get away with having an offensive line that
(22:44):
is a little bit mediocre. The Jets have one of
the best defensive lines in the NFL, and I agree
with you about Hassan Raddick. The guy hasn't played for
the Jets at all, so they don't really know what
they're missing. And obviously Bryce hoff being gone is an impact,
but they have a doubt defensive line. They will find
a way to get to the quarterback against this offensive line.
(23:06):
The wise guys love love the Jets in this spot.
Speaker 1 (23:11):
All right, another game. I never trust the Browns, ever,
I love their coach, and I have real questions about
the depth of Dallas's offensive talent. I worry about blocking
Miles Garrett, But god, I know what I get from
(23:31):
Dak and Mike McCarthy. I don't know what the hell
I get with Deshaun Watson. I get Dallas plus two
and a half. I'm gonna take them. I'm gonna take
I'm gonna take the Cowboys. Sharper square.
Speaker 2 (23:43):
Yeah, it's sharp, but not a lot of conviction. Like
it's not you know, I just said, there's probably eight best.
Speaker 1 (23:49):
My voice told you I didn't have a lot of conviction.
Speaker 2 (23:51):
Yeah, you don't have a lot of conviction. I'm actually
surprised you chose it. I don't know if you feel
like you got to talk about the Cowboys is like
the lowest common denominator as a member of the meeting.
But it's not a game that I'm excited about, like
as a better for all the reasons you just said.
I think the Cowboys are are the Houston Rockets circa
twenty twelve of the NFL, right, a lot of talent.
(24:15):
They're great in the regular season, fall apart when it matters.
I'm not a buyer on McCarthy. I just don't think
he's a very good coach. I think what you said
about the lack of depth on offense is a real issue,
and that's continued to be an issue for the past
couple of years. Listen the Browns defense last year at
home historic Miles Garrett. We just talked about Trent Williams
(24:36):
being a line changer when it comes to moving the
point spread. Miles Garrett is like that. Miles Garrett is
the kind of defensive force from a betting perspective and
from a line making perspective that JJ Watt was about
twelve years ago. Book makers have to account for his
presence with a point half a point in terms of
the spread. But we don't know anything about Deshaun Watson.
(24:58):
And also, I will tell you one other thing that
I think is sticking out in people's minds. From a
professional betting point of view. Bill Callahan is an offensive
line coach genius, and he is one of the reasons
why that Brown's team. They could lose Nick Chubb, they
could lose any running back, get someone back in there,
and anybody who's going to make that team produce. I
love Kevin Stefanski too. He left. He went to the
(25:20):
Titans to work with his son, who's now the head
coach at the Titans. So I do think the wise
guys are on the Cowboys, but no one's banging the drum,
being like rushing the counter. I gotta get on the
Cowboys right now.
Speaker 1 (25:31):
Okay, this one's painful for me to make because.
Speaker 2 (25:35):
I am really beast kind.
Speaker 1 (25:37):
I know, I really want to see the Bears flourish,
and I think they will. But God, if the line
goes to plus four for the Titans, rookie quarterback Titans
plus the points you're shaking your head Sharper square.
Speaker 2 (25:52):
It's totally sharp. And look, it pains me as Chicago
in as someone who loves this team so much and
was weepy eyed watching all of the hard knocks stuff,
seeing the team walk in and out of Hollis Hall,
practicing in Lake Forest, the introductions, making it feel like
(26:16):
this is the premier franchise in the NFL because of
its history, even though we've only won one Super Bowl. Dude,
this hype is just too much. I mean, it's still
a team that has not breached five hundred and god
knows how long. It's still a team with a rookie quarterback.
It's now a team where if you want to bet
(26:38):
on the Bear season win total, you got to bet
that they're going to be over five hundred. A rookie
quarterback in a division that has the Packers, who a
lot of people think could go to the super Bowl,
the Lions, who a lot of people think should be
the number one seed in the NFC this year. Like,
this is a lot And I know Caleb Williams says
I don't get nervous before games, he should get nervous
(27:00):
because this Tennessee team has improved at every single place
they need to improve. They've gotten much better in the
defensive backfield with Lugerious Snead. They've gotten better at receiver.
They have improved their offensive line, not just in scheme
and talent, but with coaching. I worry about the Bears
in this spot, way way too much hype and enthusiasm.
(27:20):
All right.
Speaker 1 (27:21):
We always end with a game that I missed, but
also a game that I don't have the courage to bet,
but I just want your opinion. Sam Darnold minus points
on the road scares me, but god, the Giants are bad.
Minnesota minus two. I think I'd swallow the two with Minnesota.
Talk me in or out of that game.
Speaker 2 (27:43):
No, you don't want to swallow the two of Minnesota.
You want to take the Giants and look, this one
is divided. I'm not going to lie to you. Simon
Hunter and I do the Favorites podcast on the Volume
Podcast Networks. We will always do a segment called Sharp
Calls where professional betters who listen to our show on
Tuesday will call us on Wednesday and tell us everything
they agree with, then everything they disagree with. It is
(28:04):
the greatest peanut gallery in the world. When we did
our Thursday show and we did the sharp Call segment,
this was the biggest division was half the group was
on the Vikings. Half the group is on the Giants.
I feel like Simon and I are in a bit
of a foxhole with this game. I like the Giants.
I actually have bet the Vikings fifteen to one for
(28:25):
the worst record in the NFL this year. Their schedule
after they play the Giant Goal Niners, Texans, Packers, Jets,
this team, if they don't win against the Giants, they
could be winless when we get to the end of October.
So I like the Giants. Here. There's some really important
trends that we actually haven't gotten to yet that I
think are really important. Underdogs between one and five and
(28:48):
a half points in Week one since twenty eighteen covered
a sixty four percent clip. It's a pretty big sample
size for more than one hundred and fifty games, so
and favorites of one to three and a half points
cover only forty three percent at the time in September,
So we've got pretty good trends when we talk about
bettings weeks one, especially as you were discussing when we
(29:09):
open the segment that show you why you can take
advantage and why you want to bet underdogs. This is
also a really interesting coach matchup to me right two
years ago. These guys are the Bell of the Ball
and day Ball wins Coach of the Year. Both of
these teams are winning games that are less than one
score games and they're winning them consistently. They play each
(29:30):
other in the playoffs, day Ball and Daniel Jones going
to Minnesota. They beat Kirk Cousins and Kevin O'Donnell, Kevin O'Connell,
and so there's a lot of sentiment that Brian Dayball
is a really good coach, and then last year everything
falls apart for both of them. So I do think
there's a little bit too much hate on the Giants
right now and a little bit too much credit on
(29:51):
the Vikings. Sam Darnold should not be a road favorite ever,
He shouldn't be a road favorite in any scenario. He
just shouldn't. So you got to take the Giants.
Speaker 1 (30:04):
Okay, finally a game I missed. I am betting you
it's Colts plus the points. I know it's the Colt plus.
The point is it of.
Speaker 2 (30:13):
Course it is. I knew, Yeah, it's one hundred percent
the Colts plus I think you can get them plus
three some places plus three and a half. Now this
line was two and a half forty eight hours ago.
The public is steaming in on the Texans and the
wise guys are buying on the Colts, and look, it's
(30:36):
a little tricky. Anthony Richardson has basically played like seventeen
games a quarterback I know, since high school. I know, right,
And then you got the Texans who look like they
are all world. But I do want to give some
context here. The Texans do not win the AFC South
if Trevor Lawrence doesn't get injured. The Colts almost made
(30:57):
the playoffs with Gardner Minshew playing the majority of the
games last season. I think Shane steiken is a genius
as a coach, and what he did with Minshew and
what he was starting to do with Anthony Richardson is brilliant.
And I think the level of play that the Eagles
had last year on offense and what you saw from
(31:18):
the Colts is a direct correlation between Shane Steikeen being
an Indie and not being with Philly anymore. I think
there's a huge advantage there also to repeat division underdogs
thirty seven to fifteen and one against spread in week
one since twenty fourteen. That's seventy one percent. This is
a really good spot for the Colts against a overvalued
(31:40):
Texans team.
Speaker 1 (31:43):
I want you to just give my audience something here,
just entertain me and make my audience smarter. So I
think the Rams the last two years, last year and
this year are undervalued. But their old line is a
bit of a musical chair situation. Sean McVeagh and Stafford
(32:03):
getting three and a half against an average defense feels
like stealing money. But I'm really reticent in this spot.
I don't like their old line Hutchison had according to
you know, all the Lion news. They're like, he's now
the best defensive rush end of the league. He's just
tearing it up. I look at this line, I think
McVeigh Stafford plus three and a half. But there's something
(32:27):
that tells me, stay away, educate me.
Speaker 2 (32:32):
Your instincts are spot on, and this was the hardest game.
The other bet that we do on the podcast, it's
called our Big Balls Bet of the Week, and it's
the bet we know it's hard to make, but you
one hundred percent have to have the courage to make it.
This week it is the Detroit Lions minus three and
(32:54):
a half over the Los Angeles Rams. And who likes
to bet a favorite in any scenario, especially when I've
given you all these trends. But here's the thing about
these trends. Fifty eight percent, sixty one percent, What that
really means is that, yeah, you're going to have an
edge if you bet at long term. What I'm trying
to do here is thread the needle and catch a
(33:15):
falling knife, where the other forty percent of the time right,
it doesn't work right right? And so look, I love
the Rams and we have made so much money on
the Rams the past couple of years because I do
think Matthew Stafford is probably the most, if it's possible,
the most underrated quarterback. He never gets into the conversation
(33:35):
of top three, top four, and he should. You If
there was a great video this fall this offseason, a C. J.
Shaud talking about quarterbacks he likes to watch, it was
Matthew Stafford. NFL players loving Matthew Stafford. He is a gamer.
And what he did last year when Cooper Cup was
out and turned Puka Nakua into an all world receiver.
He is brilliant and I really want to bet the Rams,
(33:58):
but here's the problem, and I want to fade the
life because the variance is so high when you're betting
on a Dan Campbell team, because of the way he
goes forward on fourth down, which can always bite you,
as it did in the NFC title game. And when
the Niners came back, they are so foundationally good. And
when I bet, and when a lot of professionals bet,
(34:19):
they bet from inside out. They look at the offensive line,
they look at the defensive line. That's where they start.
They don't start on the edges, they don't start with
the quarterbacks. They start foundationally. The lines are one of
a few teams with top five offensive line, top five
defensive line. Pinasuel on one side. Then you mentioned Aden Hutchinson.
I bet Ada Hutchinson fourteen to one to lead the
(34:40):
league in sacks. Everything coming out of camp was how
this guy has gotten better and better. And last year
he was dominant no matter what the situation was, no
matter how often he was being double teams, he consistently
got pressure on quarterbacks, even if it wasn't always a sack.
So if you look at those things, I'm like, wait
a second. Aaron Donald retired offensive line for the Rams
(35:02):
in trouble. Jared Goff undefeated against the spread to start
the season in his career, Jared Goff twenty five to
nine against spread in doors. Jared Goff the most profitable
quarterback against the spread the past five years. Dan Campbell
the most profitable coach against the spread the past five years.
(35:25):
I know, like it's hard to bet on a more
than a field goal favorite in a game that ended
as a very short win for the Lions last year
in the playoffs, I think the Lions have gotten better.
I think the Rams have stagnated or a little bit less,
a little bit worse because their talent isn't as good.
So it hurts, But I'm on the lines.
Speaker 1 (35:49):
Sharper Square, all odds provided by DraftKings. The favorites have
a one hundred thousand dollars pick them contest, and it's
free to play, which is sounds like a bad business
move by you. You should charge people.
Speaker 2 (36:05):
Colin Listen, we're on the Volume podcast network. We want
to engage as many people as possible and if it's
going to cost us money. We don't care if we
look good. You look good. That's what we care about.
Anybody can play. And here's what's fun. Me and Simon,
we will make our five picks. We enter the contest.
We talk about the picks we're going to enter on
(36:26):
our show. People love to compete against us. So you
enter five picks every week you can win be part
of the one hundred thousand dollars prize pool. Favorites Dot
Actionnetwork dot Com is the sign up and by the way,
we give away one thousand a week to the person
with the best record. So we're giving money away all
(36:47):
season long in our effort to make the Volume podcast
Network the biggest podcast network in the world. Go sign up,
win one hundred brand favorites Dot Action Network dot com.
Speaker 1 (36:58):
Yeah, the Favorites is the absolute best sports gambling pod
in the country. We love having you guys back and God,
I'm gonna go buy a jet ski on that Panthers pick.
Speaker 2 (37:13):
I love.
Speaker 1 (37:13):
That's my pick of the week.
Speaker 2 (37:15):
But here's the problem. Here's the problem. It might not
go our way. And that's okay. It's okay because in
the long run, we got to play the fundamentals and
like it might not work this weekend, over the long run,
it's gonna work out. But man, I am like so
invested in this Panthers team. I am so nervous about
(37:37):
this game. I'm nervous about the Lions game. I'm nervous
about the Jets game. I'm nervous about the Colts game,
and the Giants game. I'm sick to my stomach. Brother,
all right, buddy, seasons back.
Speaker 1 (37:48):
It is one of the more interesting games this weekend
is Colorado and Deon Sanders and all he brings to
the table at Nebraska. Now, Travis Hunter and Shador Sanders
(38:11):
for the Buffaloes are the two best players in the game,
and they alone may be able to carry Colorado to
the win. But I like Nebraska for a lot of reasons.
Number one is, if you go to last year, nobody
lost more close games down the stretch than Nebraska. They
were close. They needed a couple of transfers, They needed
(38:33):
to get a little older on the defensive side. It
didn't matter if it was Iowa, it was Maryland, it
was Michigan State. They lost by a field goal. It
felt like every week, and they were shooting themselves in
the foot with a lot of ugly turnovers. This defense
now is different. Six seniors, five junior start and that
matters a lot of starts against the Colorado offense and
(38:57):
offensive line that I haven't for the last couple of years. Again,
Colorado's got the two best players in this game, maybe
the three or four. Best depth experience. I like Nebraska.
The other thing is that Colorado has by and large
last three matchups as at one. Nebraska's not overlooking anybody. Also,
(39:22):
I tend to look at programs. I think there's baby steps.
I think when you take over a program, first of all,
the first sign you're doing it right is you're closing
the gap. Nebraska last year close losses. Generally those kind
of teams the following year start turning those into close wins,
and then the following year, if you have the right
(39:42):
coach and the right players, you have decisive wins. I
don't think Nebraska is in a decisive win territory yet
against the better teams on their schedule, but I don't
think Colorado is one of the better teams on their schedule.
I like Nebraska by ten points. I think their defense,
though it won't be a perfect game, a Shadure Sanders.
He moves well. I really like him. I mean, I
(40:05):
almost feel like if Shaudure Sanders, if you're gonna judge
him just on football, he can be the number one
pick in the draft. His ability to place the ball,
moving pocket, moving left, moving right, moving forward. He has
tremendous ball placement, and he's kind of what everybody's looking for.
He can win in the pocket, he can win off script.
(40:25):
So I think Colorado is going to score some points
to be a handful. But I think Matt Ruhle situationally,
is a better coach than Dion. Dion's a bigger present.
Dion may be a better recruiter, But I mean Nebraska
was I looked it up this morning. Top thirty and
tackles for loss last season, and now this defense six seniors,
five juniors, is even older. They got that new quarterback,
(40:48):
Dylan Reyola. They like him. They are more than capable
at quarterback. He's not Shoudour Sanders, but he's fine Nebraska
at home, more experienced defense, Matt rule losing close to
now winning close. I'm gonna take him by about eight
to ten points here litll thirty three twenty four kind
(41:10):
of feels like that to me. I like the Huskers.
All right, the game of the day, it's on Fox.
Is Texas their first ever meeting in the Big House
against Michigan. It's remarkable to think about two brands that
big that have never faced in the big house. Listen,
I was a Michigan believer all last year. I mean,
(41:30):
Harbaugh on the sidelines are not They were hammering people.
But Michigan lost eight of eleven offensive starters, a star quarterback,
a star receiver, a star back, top offensive lineman, and
those were also in many instances leaders. So not only
do you lose Jim Harbaugh, which I think the cultural
vibe of the toughest physicality will remain even if this
(41:53):
coach isn't the right coach. My feeling is, I mean
Mark Helfrich wasn't the perfect fit for Chip Kelly, but
for a year you couldn't tell the difference. I think
there's a lot of momentum program momentum for Michigan, but
they just lost too many leaders and too much firepower
on offense, and I think they're a team that will
be able to win a certain way. I think Texas
(42:16):
can win anyway, shootout close. They're better at quarterback. Now.
They lost three receivers to the NFL, but it's Texas,
it's Sark. I don't worry about the offense. I talked
to Sark this week. He said it's hard for him
to differentiate in some instances starters from backups with Texas,
and we tend to rush to a judgment with these
(42:37):
high profile coaches A Kiffin, A Sark, A Lincoln Riley,
a Harbaugh, you can't. This stuff takes two and three years,
even with big brands to get up to speed. So
you're in the Ohio state class, you're in the Georgia
and Alabama class. This is the first time I look
at Texas and think, yeah, they can go toe to
toe with anybody. I didn't like him on the back
(42:59):
end last year. Washington exposed that. Michael Pennix exposed that.
I think Texas has a chance to play for the
national championship. I think they bring back more experience that
offensive line for Texas. Now that's some first and second
round talent. That's a lot of starts. They may have
some new receivers, a new back. That's a lot of starts.
And Quinn Ewers from diet to his play on the
(43:21):
field is a little bit more structured to me last
year than what I saw initially. Was not a big fan, initially,
just played to loose to J Cutler. To me, I
like Texas here now again. I think it's a pretty
low scoring game. I think Michigan has some top defenders
are at home. Even good college teams can struggle away
(43:41):
from home. I looked at this morning. It opened at
Texas minus four, it's now Texas minus seven. I think
the Longhorns win. I think it's probably pretty close. But
I think you'll watch that game and from a more
dynamic offense to the better quarterback, I think you're going
to feel like Texas. They may stumble a little early,
(44:01):
intimidating big house. I think they pull away late a
little bit like how Michigan beat Ohio State last couple
of years, physicality leaned on them late third quarter on.
You're going to feel like the better team, the better roster,
the better chance in the National Championship is Texas. I
like the Horns here by about six the volume. Thanks
(44:23):
so much for listening. If you've enjoyed the podcast, take
a moment rate and review
Host
Colin Cowherd
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