Colin reacts to an incredible Thursday Night Football game in which the Ravens beat the Bengals 35-34!
He breaks down the importance of high level quarterback play, why Thursday Night Football has actually become a GREAT product and why divisional rival games tend to be so close (3:00).
Then, Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network and host of “The Favorites” podcast, joins Colin for a round of “Sharp or Square,” to help provide Colin with the sharpest betting advice for week 10 of the NFL slate.
21:30 - Bucs vs 49ers
24:00 - Cardinals vs Jets
26:30 - Broncos vs Chiefs
29:30 - Texans vs Lions
32:00 - Titans vs Chargers
40:30 - Rams vs Dolphins
43:30 - Bills vs Colts
47:00 - Steelers vs Commanders
51:00 - Saints vs Falcons
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
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Time today. What time is it? Game Time? All right?
Instant reaction on the Baltimore win over Cincinnati thirty five
(01:05):
to thirty four, another great Thursday night football game, one
of the best games of the year. This is I
had the Bengals plus sixth tonight for this very reason.
These are great rivals, two of the best quarterbacks on display. Defenses,
you know, this is why Kansas City should be favored
to win the AFC. Those defenses need a ton of work.
In fact, let's talk about going for two. I would
(01:28):
have gone for two. Baltimore scored on four straight drives. Defenses,
you know, if you have an average defense, Cincinnati's defense
first half a lot of energy. Guys are feeling great,
they've got momentum. But eventually a bad defense gets more tired,
it gets more beat up. You lose a couple of
players who get banged up, and by the end of
(01:49):
the game, you know, Cincinnati's defense was gassed and they
get exposed. A lot of defenses have a really good
first quarter. A lot of defenses you know when they've
got great energy. They're aggressive offenses, and big games can
be a little tight, restrictive, conservative. But over the course
(02:10):
of a game, these are not great defenses, and both
Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson just lit the defenses up.
I would have gone for it. First of all, I
think aggressive wins. I'm usually a go for it. Teams
that go to overtime generally historically don't play well the
next week. The extra fifteen snaps or whatever it is.
So I think Zach Taylor made the right call. But
(02:32):
you know, I want to talk about something. Is one
of the things the media does that really frustrates me
that they don't consider how society adapts. They overreact to things.
I could give you multiple examples. I was listening to
a podcast recently and the guy was talking about, you know,
one hundred years ago or more, you know, people thought
(02:54):
we were going to run out of food, but you know,
things happen, fertilization, society adapts, technology adapts, and now more
people die of obesity than starvation, right. You know, I
remember when I was a kid back in the late eighties,
eighty seven, eighty eight, rural roads allowed you to go
from fifty five to sixty five miles an hour, and
(03:16):
now it's it can be faster than that. But there
was this, you know sense from the media it was
car desks, we're going to explode, and they did increase
initially on rural roads. But over the course of time,
there's technology advances and manufacturers make better cars and sturdier cars,
and society adapts and the media has to do a
(03:36):
better job, in my opinion, of constantly overreacting stuff. I'll
give you another example. During COVID college football, media is
like myocarditis. You can get an infection through a virus.
It's going to kill college football players. Well, first of all,
on average, it's treatable, and on average, the person that
(03:57):
gets myocarditis is in their mid forty not nineteen to
twenty years old in elite shape. So again, it's the
overreaction to things that either somebody writes a story in
the media and then everybody jumps on board and copies
it out of just apathy or laziness, or they don't
do their homework, or they're just overreacting and not considering.
(04:19):
There's just a lot of smart people out there, whether
it's on the processing of food, the creation of food,
whether it's manufacturing better cars, whether it's safety measures and vaccines.
During COVID, people figure stuff out. And the reason I
bring this up we had another great Thursday night game.
We've had multiple great Thursday night games. This is one
(04:41):
of the best games of the year. Minnesota and the
Rams was a good Thursday night game San Francisco in Seattle,
Tampa Bay, Atlanta went to overtime. Fantastic game, as good
as an NFC South game can get. Baker Mayfield and
Kirk Cousins showing off is that I remember about four
years ago and the media was going through a weird
time time. There were some cultural changes. It's when the
(05:03):
word woke started being used a lot, and you know
it can be overused and was overused, but it does exist.
And the media was just on this thing that Thursday
Night football. It was unfair to players, and it was
like I talked to NFL players and they liked Thursday
Night Football. You didn't hit that week. It was a
real light week of practice and then you know you're
off after the game until like the following Wednesday or Tuesday.
(05:26):
So a lot of guys it's like a second by
a lot of guys on the West Coast would go
to Hawaii or Mexico. A lot of guys in the
East Coast would go to the Bahamas. They treated it
as a second bye week. And so this idea that
it was too much for NFL players. These are twenty
five year old world class athletes that spend six and
(05:47):
seven figures on their bodies. They've got great training staffs
around them. They're going to be okay. And I think
again today, did these teams look fatigued and tired? Do
they look overwhelmed by playing a Thursday night football game?
Of course not. And again it's just and I'm part
of the media and I've overreacted before, but I thought
(06:09):
what you saw tonight, well, these Thursday night games, they
like to get these divisional rival games that are close.
They don't want to have to travel too far on
a Thursday. They want the game to be regional or divisional,
and these this was a perfect Thursday night game. Great
quarterback play, two teams that know each other, uh to
you know, I mean, I think Zach Taytor is a smart,
clever offensive coach, and I think John Harbaugh's great and
(06:32):
the teams. You know, clearly Baltimore looked a little off early,
but you know, they adapt their pro athletes. I thought
it was a classic illustration of basically Zach Taylor and
Joe Burrow having to overcome a terrible defense. And I
mean Baltimore's isn't great either, but through the years it
(06:55):
has been pretty consistently solid. Now, the Ravens have really
poured more money into their off offense, Lamar Jackson, Ronnie Stanley.
They just and got Deontay Johnson, so they're pouring more
of the money in offense, which is where NFL teams
should spend their money. But I never worry about Baltimore
being cheap or trying to save a nickel here or there,
or Cincinnati. That's the Brown family's history. So I just
(07:17):
feel like, you know, Joe Burrow, this is not the NBA.
He's not going to demand a trade, but I do
think he's been perpetually pissed this year because he's putting
up numbers like tonight. I mean, Jamar Chase had two
hundred and fifty yards and three touchdowns. I mean, they
did everything they could possibly do. Thought I thought that
it was a penalty obviously in the two point conversion
(07:37):
that was un called, not called, which is unfortunate, and
I you know, I'm not going to blame that. Listen,
when you give up the points in the yards that
Cincinnati did tonight, you were hardly perfect. Officials can miss calls,
and I've always thought in the NBA or in the NFL,
(08:00):
in the games officials are best served swallowing the whistle.
I mean, one of the things I noticed in the NFL,
and I'm sure you've noticed this is over the course
of the last eight to ten to twelve years, the
amount of contact that is allowed on the perimeter is insane.
You could call pass interference on every play. And I
think maybe it's the Belicheckian influence on the sport, where
(08:23):
you know, the Patriots just they were physical, they grabbed,
they touched, they'd wear the same colored gloves as the
team they were playing's uniform, and they were just it
was constant conflict and touching. You're not going to call
pass interference on every play, and so the reality over
time it's been normalized on the edges that you just
you got to grab. Now you can't put your arm
around a guy, but you can call pass interference constantly
(08:46):
in this league. And they and Baltimore was flagged for
it tonight several times. Personal fouls and pass interference on
a play like that. Good luck on the road getting
that call. And again, it's not like Cincinnati played flawless football.
Their defense was a mess. They're tackling was bad. I
do love this about Lamar Jackson, and I've said this
before and I'll say it again. The guy was two
hundred and ninety yards, four touchdowns, trailed by fourteen and
(09:09):
the third. One of the things I love about Lamar,
and this is certainly the case with a Josh Allen
and to Patrick Mahomes, you just don't know when they're
trailing if you watch them play. They don't play any
different when they're trailing them when they're leading. And I've
always thought the line in this league, the difference between
the haves and the have nuts in quarterback play is
the average quarterbacks in this league press when they're behind,
(09:30):
when you know they have to throw. A Geno Smith
a good player, but they don't feel the same. You're
watching Lamar Jackson down by fourteen and a half in
the third quarter. Excuse me, it doesn't matter. You can't
tell he doesn't care, totally unaffected, doesn't change his body language,
his composure, his aggressiveness. He's just such a special all
(09:50):
time athlete. And this nonsense that he's not a pocket quarterback,
which thankfully that's people have moved away from that. He's exceptional.
He does a really good job too. He's got a
little bit of a different throwing style, so did Philip Rivers.
You know, some guys just have a little bit of
a different you know, Justin Herbert looks like he could
be the NFL logo. He's got that perfect stance, you
(10:12):
know how like Jerry West was the NBA logo, the
late Jerry West. Justin Herbert. If the NFL ever did
a player logo, it would be a quarterback and Justin
Herbert literally could be the logo. He's got the perfect
long stride. But a lot of these guys have kind
of different deliveries. Aaron Rodgers sometimes throws off his he's
not even on the ground. So Lamar's got a little
bit of a different style. It's a little bit more
(10:33):
of a flip. I think Kyler Murray's got one of
the prettiest throws throwing motions in the league. But it
just works, and he has an ability. Lamar has an
ability to I think it's body confidence that he can
stare all over the field and then just in a
quarter second suddenly look over to the sideline where they
camp a guy and make a beautiful throw of eight
(10:56):
to twelve yards. He's just he's really got a sense
of composure and self aware and accuracy, and you know,
he and Joe Pearl, Joe Burrow put aduct click tonight.
It was an absolute clinic from both quarterbacks. And again,
these Thursday night football games, they're just fantastic. And the
only thing I don't like about Thursday night football two
(11:17):
of the top five quarterbacks in the NFL won't play Sunday.
And that's the downside to you know, if you do
Thursday night football and you do Monday night football. So
you know, Monday night Tua and Matt Stafford are playing
and Thursday night it's Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow. So
four of probably the twelve best quarterbacks in the league
are not playing Sunday. You know. So you know, I
(11:37):
can only take so much. Will Levis Sorry, it's that's
the only knock to me on these Thursday night football games.
Seven years ago, these games six years ago, the games
were awful. I mean it was like you felt like
you were getting Jacksonville and Steeters were wearing bumblebee uniforms.
Now they you know, they're putting up an almost every
Thursday night football game this year. I think it's the
best Thursday Night schedule. You've got a star quarterback tonight
(11:58):
you had two. And if you didn't enjoy that, I
don't you know. I like defense occasionally, but if you
didn't enjoy that, like it's you, it's not your sport.
That was just great. Great. Also had Cincinnati plus six.
Didn't know if I was going to win that at
one point, But I don't think less of Baltimore because
it's close. These division rival games. You get four, five
(12:21):
six points. If you have a capable quarterback in a
division rivalry game, take the points. Joe Burrow is one
of the I think he's five and zero this year
as a as an underdog against the spread on the
road this year, Joe Burrow, he's a great He's now
seventeen and three. Is Joe Burrow as a three point
(12:41):
or more underdog as an NFL quarterback? Seventeen and three now,
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Speaker 1 (14:10):
All right, I am feeling good about my picks this week.
I've had a couple of weeks I like have. Also,
three of the last four weeks had good college bets.
By the way, we don't do those here. Chad Millman,
co host of the Favorites. All odds provided by DraftKings.
You don't get a freebie very often, but I feel
like I'm getting one this week. Tampa Bay short week,
(14:34):
all beat up against the Niners, team off of bye,
in a bad mood. Christian McCaffrey getting back. I mean
all the things you'd want short week over time other
team off of bye. This feels like the rare thank
you DraftKings. I'll make the deposit. I'll buy some jet
(14:54):
skis tonight, Sharper Square.
Speaker 3 (14:57):
Totally sharp. The wise guys have loved this one. It
was at five and a half, got up to six,
got up to six and a half. Now it's settled
in around six. I will not be surprised if this
gets up to six and a half. What's interesting about
this game is, you know we talk all the time
about the pro joe split, right the professionals on one side,
(15:21):
the amateurs on another. Normally, what you get is the joe's.
The amateurs like the big, fancy favorite. In this case,
the joe's have liked the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who have
actually been winning amateurs a lot of bets this season,
And because they look so good in overtime against the
(15:42):
Chiefs and the Niners have struggled, the joe's have been
coming in on the Bucks and the wise guys. For
your point, they like Christian McCaffrey coming back. They like
the Niners coming off a bye. They like having to
fade the Bucks traveling back home in a short week
overtime to play a really physical and healthy San Francisco team.
(16:06):
And there's a couple of trends that are worth looking at,
and a couple of matchups that are worth looking at.
Number One, the past decade, favorites on the road off
of a bye sixty percent against the spread. Favorites of
five and a half or more off a by on
the road seventy percent against the spread. What that tells
you is that when a team is good and they're
(16:28):
off the by and they go on the road in
their favorites, they tend to overperform, and then you got
the matchup. Everyone loves this Bucks team, but they are
terrible against the run, and if Christian McCaffrey is back,
all of a sudden, you've got a much bigger advantage
against the weakest part of the Bucks defense. Whise guys
are with you, Simon Simon? Whyse guys are with you, Colin.
(16:49):
I was thinking about my bff, Simon one hundred percent
on the Niners.
Speaker 1 (16:55):
Another game I like a lot is Arizona Cardinals plus one. Now.
Usually a star quarterback with extra time to prepare would
put me in a good mood. But I think extra
time helps for excellent coaching staffs, you know, dynamic offenses
in their prime. The Jets have an interim defensive coach,
(17:17):
they're on their second play caller. There is no proof
that extra time means anything to this team. And Arizona
at home now getting a point. I think people, I
know what you're thinking it. People are getting really high
on Arizona. This team beat San Francisco and Santa Clara.
They got really good offensive players and this is getting
(17:37):
to the point in the year when defensive players, I
mean the Jets defense isn't that good. It's just not
that good. I'm gonna take Arizona plus one Sharper square,
all right, Well it's square.
Speaker 3 (17:49):
And let's not use the Niners win as a barometer
of what this team is, right, because the Niners in
that game, they didn't have a kicker. They literally would
not kick a field goal when they were in the
red zone. They had to keep running it. And one
of those times, even though they were ahead, their running
(18:09):
back fumbled the ball and it sent them the Cardinals
towards a win in which they had about a five
percent chance of winning the game. In that exact moment.
The Cardinals have won three in a row. They're in
first place in the AFC West, ahead of the Rams,
ahead of the Seahawks, ahead of the Niners. There is
a lot of glow on this team right now, and
(18:31):
it is a team. To its credit, it has come
back from double digit downs in a couple of games,
and then it destroyed a Bear's team, which you and
I both know like they were primed to be destroyed.
I know I listened to your show. I know how
you feel about Ibra Flus. I know the stat you've
been drumming about him on the road. I agree with
(18:52):
you as a Bears fan. Terrible coach. That was the
exact spot for the Cardinals to look dominant.
Speaker 1 (18:57):
Right.
Speaker 3 (18:58):
The Jets with an anybuy getting healthier. No pressure on
Aaron Rodgers. I don't mean shoulders. I mean the Cardinals
cannot get any pressure. They are the worst in the league.
That is Taylor made for Aaron Rodgers to bring this
team back down to earth. The wise guys like the Jets.
The line has moved. The Jets were underdogs. The Jets
(19:21):
are now favorites.
Speaker 1 (19:22):
Okay, you're not getting the best of the number. I
like the Broncos seven and a half plus seven and
a half against the Chiefs. So Kansas City short week
over time, Kansas City is not a team that blows
people out Denver. Meanwhile, faced what teams do and they
realize it's a tsunami. Oh, let's go to Baltimore and
(19:42):
play an angry Ravens team they hammered last year, The Niners,
the Lions like teams that were healthy at the time.
Miami going to Baltimore shouldn't even count. You should be
just like not any other place in the league. Nobody,
no team humiliates more teams than Baltimore in a bad
mood at home. It doesn't matter San Francisco. I mean
(20:04):
McVeigh lost last year. I thought it was this best
coach game of the year. When they lost at Baltimore,
I thought that was when I bought the Rams. It's like, oh,
they didn't get crushed, okay, So don't just wipe that away.
Denver's not a terrible team. Kansas City's not a great team.
Division rivals. One team's humiliated one team on a short
(20:24):
weekend overtime. I thought it was a gift at nine.
I still like Denverse seven and a half. Sharper square.
Speaker 3 (20:31):
It was a gift at nine, It was a gift
at nine and a half, at nine, at eight and
a half, at eight, seven and a half, that's where
you stop. Take it at seven and a half. Do
not take it at seven. Of course, the wise guys
are going to be on a huge and in this case,
seven is huge Division road underdog. Those ten to two
(20:52):
favor in terms of ROI playing the underdog the Chiefs.
When Patrick Mahomes is a favorite of three or more,
he has a losing record against the spread. They're not
the kind of team. And I know you've talked about
this as well. They are not a blow them out
team right now. Maybe they're going to get there with
DeAndre Hopkins, with Travis Kelce getting more unto the flow
(21:15):
and then understanding who they are offensively now, but they
are not there yet. And in this fourteen game win streak,
they're beating teams by five or six points a game,
right so they are not the kind of team, and
especially in the second half, they slow it down. They
get leads in the first half, and then they slow
it down in the second half. The Broncos have a
great defense, and you can say everything you just said
(21:36):
about the Ravens, all the wise guys believe as well.
They went on the road, they got throttled. The first
play of the game, bo Nicks throws an interception off
of rever receiver's hands, and everything sort of went wrong
for them the rest of the day. But this is
a team that continues to grind and play to the
whistle and play to the end of the game. I
know there's a cliches, but in this case they're true
(21:58):
because bo Nicks is being treated as if he's a
third or fourth year quarterback. Not a first year quarterback.
So the expectation is that the Broncos will stay in
this game and keep the back door open, and the
Chiefs will allow them to keep the back door open. Also,
one thing I would say past twenty years, teams that
are off of a twenty plus blowout loss, which the
(22:19):
Broncos are fifty percent against spread So.
Speaker 1 (22:23):
There are times when I just don't think teams are
going to play perfect. I'm getting three and a half
Texans at home against the Lions and Detroit has This
is not a game that you have circled as a
Lions fan. You have big games coming up against, you know,
in division teams. This is kind of one of those
(22:44):
weird Hey we got to go on the road and
play the Texans. For the Texans, they look at Detroit
and think, she's this is like playing the Chiefs. This
is we got to get right three and a half.
I think you come out of a divisional game with
Green Bay you really are feeling it. I think Detroit's better,
but the better team doesn't know us win. Sometimes it's
the home team where you feel like there's real urgency
(23:06):
to make a statement. I like the Texans plus three
and a half here Sharper square.
Speaker 3 (23:12):
Yeah, the numbers move from four and a half to
three and a half, and I think that the wise
guys are with you here, but three will be the
tipping point. If it gets to three, the wise guys
will come in on the Lions. And we've talked about this.
The beauty of the Lions is that their strength is
in their offensive line and for lack of a better term,
(23:36):
physical travels in football, right, running backs can have a
bad game depending on the surface. Quarterbacks can play better
outdoors than indoors. Offensive lines all you're doing is lining
up across the guy in front of you and beating
him up, and the Lions do that better than any
(23:57):
offensive line in the league. I think that is why
I you know, last week, all the professional betters were
all over the Packers against the Lions. They thought the
Lions are going to be outside. Jared Goff has a
bulky ankle. This is the spot where you're going to
fade a team that everybody had been making money on,
even as big favorites, because they thought we thought we'd
(24:18):
see the letdown spot in a really physical game. Didn't
happen like the physical travel So I do worry about
the Texans being able to out physical the Lions especially.
We don't know what's happening with Will Anderson. And in
that Jets game against the Texans, when Will Anderson went out,
(24:41):
the Texans were dominating. As soon as he's out, the
Jets took that game over. So it is, it's the
right side. The wise guys are playing it. It's not
my favorite.
Speaker 1 (24:52):
Though, here's a game where I understand the hook and
so people won't bet this side. But there are teams
that I think get healthy or get right, and the
market's not quite adjusted. I think the Chargers are going
to be a problem this point forward. When you look
(25:13):
at that receiving cor last week and all of a
sudden you're like, oh, it's not a huge weakness now,
it's actually okay. With the development of Quinton Johnston, Ladd McConkey, Palmer, Disley, Hearst, JK. Dobbins,
you're like, oh shit, they're kind of right now. I
think they're going to start reeling off some kind of
(25:35):
punishing dominant wins. Herbert now is healthy. I think the Chargers,
even at seven and a half, are a little undervalued.
I really do. I know it's not sharp. I would
take the Chargers comfortably over the Titans. For the record,
when we've seen the Titans play good teams, it's fools
(25:57):
gold like they can hang with bad teams. I've seen
overwhelmed against well coached teams. I know it's square Chargers
seven and a half.
Speaker 3 (26:06):
What say you, Yeah, it's totally square. The only side
to take here is the Titans. Either don't bet it
or take the Titans. I'm not betting this game. I'm
a huge Chargers backer. Last week, everybody was saying the
Browns are cresting. You gotta get the Browns right now.
(26:27):
Jamis is back and I looked at that game and
we talked about this on the favorites several times because
it made no sense to me. The Chargers were two
point favorites on the road, and if you break down
that handicap, Chargers should have been two point favorites on
the road. They have the better quarterback who doesn't turn
the ball over. They have a really good physical offensive line.
(26:49):
We just talked about the Lions. I see the Chargers
built in the same mold as the Lions. As we
build the next twelve twenty four to thirty six months
with what Harribaugh was trying to do there. I love
this Chargers team. I think seven and a half points
is too high. There's too much quirkiness that can come
into play in these games when the number is that
(27:11):
high and there's.
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Pretty easy. That's for the people dot com slash Colin
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(28:18):
fighting for you to get a full and fair compensation
if there's an unexpected accident in your life. This is
a paid advertisement. Okay, here's a game, and I hate
to do this because I really really like the Rams
(28:39):
and their young defense a lot. It was plus two
and a half and I really like Miami at two
and a half. Now it's down to one, so I
think it won. I would take the Rams, but there's
a game every week where I'm like, tell me what
to bet. I really I think the Rams are so
(29:01):
talented defensely. Defensively, they have not missed on a draft pick,
a defensive draft pick in two years. They one of
their safeties is an undrafted rookie from Tennessee. The volunteers
hess four picks. The other kid from Miami is a
pick six kid. I mean like they're hitting on everybody
verse the two Florida State guys young. Yeah, I mean everyone.
(29:23):
They all Kobe Turner from Wake Forest, they all are good.
They're all better than their draft spot. I want to
take the Rams so bad, but that numbers moving around,
it tells me the Sharps were on Miami right.
Speaker 3 (29:37):
The wise guys have been all over Miami, and I'll
tell you. You know, you and I when we did
our Sunday show at ESPN, we always had a pick
where we went against the wise guys and we called
it the executive decision, and you just nailed the game.
That is the executive decision for me. I love the Rams.
I feel like the Ram. I bet the Rams last
(29:58):
week as favorites against the Seahawks a miracle cover. But
Matthew Stafford, there are quarterbacks in the NFL you think about, Okay,
it's the end of the game. I need this guy
to get me the cover or I don't want to
be against this guy if I bet against him. Matthew Stafford,
(30:19):
Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, those are the people
that you don't want to be against. I don't want
to be against Matthew Stafford. Ever, if I can get
Matthew Stafford basically at pick at home when his team
was won three in a row. You mentioned verse Randon Fisk,
the other guy from Florida State. He had a great
(30:41):
game last week. And don't forget Sean McVay, who I
think is brilliant. Obviously, it's not like, you know, I'm
revealing a secret. His offense, as magical as it is,
as much as we talk about Cooper Cup and Pooka
Nakua and going downfield, it's a motion offense that is
(31:02):
basically predicated on the running game. And Kyron Williams is
a brilliant running back, probably a top five all around
running back in the league right now. And that Miami
Dolphins defense is not very good against the run. So
I'm getting a physical team. The defense is up and coming.
I love that defense. They've been lights out playmaking.
Speaker 1 (31:21):
I'm with you. I don't see it.
Speaker 3 (31:23):
I don't see why the wise guys are on the Dolphins.
If you want to exact decision this, I'm with you
one hundred percent.
Speaker 1 (31:30):
Okay, you know I love the number four Bills minus
four at the Colts. You know, if this is a
division game, it's different. I do worry about this quarterbacks
off concussions. Tua was better in the second game. Remember
the first game was Arizona. We talked about this. Okay,
better in the second game. Joe Flacco first game pretty ugly.
(31:55):
Now it's the second game, so it tells me you're
not the people now look at Buffalo and they look
at the Colts and think Flacco's old and washed, no
old quarterback coming in second game. I love minus fours,
I take favorites. Something tells me the Colts is really
(32:16):
really one of the better sharp sides of the week.
Speaker 3 (32:18):
Sharper square, huge sharp side this week. It was at
four and a half for a hot minute, went to four.
A lot of three and a half's out there now.
The wise guys have been piling in on the Colts.
Two different scenarios here, both of which the wise guys
like the Colts. For one, it's a by Low sell high.
(32:41):
The Bills are seventy two. They just came off of
a huge, high profile win sixty one yard field goal
Division rival. They basically have the AFC locked up the
first week in November, huge huge cell high situation. The Colts,
big Joe Flacco starting for Anthony Richardson. That gives us
(33:03):
a better chance to win. They go into Minnesota in
prime time. They can't even get past the twenty yard line, right,
They cannot score, So all of a sudden, you've got
to buy low. So that's one scenario in which the
wise guys feel like it's overinflated because of what happened
in national television for the Colts, and then you got
to look. The Colts have a dominant run blocking unit
(33:28):
that is to the detriment of the Bills rush defense.
So in a lot of different metrics, whether it's yards
per play, yards are expected points on the rush, total
rushes of ten plus yards, which is sort of an
explosive metric, the Colts are top five. The Bills are
(33:49):
not very good defending against the runs, so there is
an advantage there, and the Cults rush defense has been
getting much better. We saw that against the Vikings with
Grover Stewart and Brentson Buckner. So there is an opportunity
here against what is the strength of the Bills defense
or offense to stop them. So the wise guys are huge,
huge fans of the culture.
Speaker 1 (34:08):
Every week there's a game I miss it's usually egregiously
bad to watch. Chad Millman, co host of the Favorites,
All odds provided by DraftKings, what's the game I missed?
It doesn't include Jacksonville.
Speaker 3 (34:22):
Well it doesn't this week. Normally it would, but you know,
with Mac Jones playing, I will say, like the line
jumped from about four to seven seven and a half.
I still don't think that's enough. That's how bad most
people think Mac Jones is. So I'm not even gonna
ask you to do anything with that game. I will
say the wise guys have been on the Giants against
(34:43):
the Panthers in the game in Munich. I won't ask
you to talk about that game. I'm a little surprised,
like you brought up all the games that are most
interesting to me one game. There are two games we
didn't discuss. One is a little high profile. I'm surprised
you to bring it up. Which is the Steeler and
the Commander.
Speaker 1 (35:00):
I want it so there's every week there's a game
I want to watch. I just want to watch it.
I think it's a fascinating game. There's an argument to
be made the Steelers have the best defense in the league.
They've really figured out, by the way, how to use
Russell Wilson. Like Greg Cosell told me today, I said,
it reminds me a little of the Seattle Seahawks power run,
(35:23):
defensive culture, one one, two, good weapons, a tough place
to play at home. He goes, But that's exactly what
the video tells you it's a poor man Seahawks team.
I kind of like Pittsburgh here right getting points, Yes,
you do.
Speaker 3 (35:37):
What's scary is you can't get to three anymore, right
because it was at three. When it got to three,
the wise guys, they immediately bet the three and it
went down to two and a half, and it's just
sort of sitting at two and a half. I would
still play the two and a half. Two is a
key number in the NFL now with all the extra
points being missed or teams going for two more offense,
(36:00):
I wouldn't be afraid of the two and a half.
But this is really the best defense. You just noted
that Jad and Daniels has faced from two defensive ends
who can really rush the passer, and because Alex Highsmith
was out for most of October, their rush metrics are
not as high as they normally are. But he's been
(36:22):
back and this is really a stellar defense. It's also
a raw rob Mike Tomlin. Spot you got Mike Tomlin.
Speaker 1 (36:29):
He's the best underdog coach Burrow is the best underdog quarterback.
I believe, yes, and I believe Tomlin getting two and
a half points here against Washington's the best underdog coach colin.
Speaker 3 (36:41):
The numbers back you up the Mike Tomlin sixty one
percent against the spread as a dog on the road
in his career. He is the most profitable coach as
an underdog against the spread this generation, in the history
of data that we have tracking all this stuff going
back about two years. The most profitable coach in this
(37:02):
situation also twenty five and five straight up against rookie QBS.
Everyone is looking for the moment to sell the Commanders
because they've been extraordinarily good. The Steelers off a bye
with these two defensive ends and Mike Tomlin as the coach,
might be the time to do it. But I didn't
give you the gross game, all right? Can I interest
(37:26):
you in the New Orleans Saints plus three and a
half against the Atlanta Falcons.
Speaker 1 (37:34):
No, you can't at all.
Speaker 3 (37:37):
We are playing We are playing the dead cat bounce.
We have a team that has a new coach that
got rid of the guy who by all accounts, and
we've been hearing this for more than a year, they
hated Dennis Allen.
Speaker 1 (37:50):
How many point Dennis Allen? They're getting three and a half.
They were here. Here's the thing.
Speaker 3 (37:55):
The Saints are getting three and a half. They were
getting four. It's down to three and a half. So
you know, the wise guy on them because the public
is betting the Falcons. So we got a pro joe
split here. This team played so badly last week. The
most popular player, Cam Jordan, apologized on Twitter and if
you look at the games Derek Carr started. Look, they've
(38:15):
lost seven in a row for those games with Derek Carr.
One of those games Kansas City, they lost twenty six
to thirteen, but it was closer than the score the
other The other three games they were by three points,
two points, in one point, including one of these games
against Atlanta. So I know, like the receivers are out.
They just traded Lattimore to Marshall Lattimore the cornerback to
(38:38):
the Commanders. But this is the spot to back the Saints.
You just got to hold your nose and do it.
You might not bet them again the rest of the year.
It's like we bet the Panthers when Andy Dalton came in,
because you knew there'd be some kind of change. Derek
Carr second game back, new coach.
Speaker 1 (38:59):
This is it. There's the whole ball.
Speaker 3 (39:01):
Of wax So, and this Atlanta team has generally been mediocre,
Like they're not blowing teams out, they're getting really lucky.
It's it's a situation where the number is a little
bit inflated because the Falcons have been doing so well
and the public sentiment on the Saints is so low.
(39:21):
So the wise guys are on the Saints.
Speaker 1 (39:24):
And the Marcus Lattimore trade, he wasn't playing anyway, so
it's not like they're pulling out a guy who's used
like Pro Bowl level corner. He's been struggling. He's got
a hamstring issue, so good storied with it. Do it?
Speaker 2 (39:38):
Do It?
Speaker 1 (39:38):
Come on the volume. Thanks so much for listening. If
you've enjoyed the podcast, take a moment, rate and review,
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Time today. What time is it? Game Time? All right?
Instant reaction on the Baltimore win over Cincinnati thirty five
(01:05):
to thirty four, another great Thursday night football game, one
of the best games of the year. This is I
had the Bengals plus sixth tonight for this very reason.
These are great rivals, two of the best quarterbacks on display. Defenses,
you know, this is why Kansas City should be favored
to win the AFC. Those defenses need a ton of work.
In fact, let's talk about going for two. I would
(01:28):
have gone for two. Baltimore scored on four straight drives. Defenses,
you know, if you have an average defense, Cincinnati's defense
first half a lot of energy. Guys are feeling great,
they've got momentum. But eventually a bad defense gets more tired,
it gets more beat up. You lose a couple of
players who get banged up, and by the end of
(01:49):
the game, you know, Cincinnati's defense was gassed and they
get exposed. A lot of defenses have a really good
first quarter. A lot of defenses you know when they've
got great energy. They're aggressive offenses, and big games can
be a little tight, restrictive, conservative. But over the course
(02:10):
of a game, these are not great defenses, and both
Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson just lit the defenses up.
I would have gone for it. First of all, I
think aggressive wins. I'm usually a go for it. Teams
that go to overtime generally historically don't play well the
next week. The extra fifteen snaps or whatever it is.
So I think Zach Taylor made the right call. But
(02:32):
you know, I want to talk about something. Is one
of the things the media does that really frustrates me
that they don't consider how society adapts. They overreact to things.
I could give you multiple examples. I was listening to
a podcast recently and the guy was talking about, you know,
one hundred years ago or more, you know, people thought
(02:54):
we were going to run out of food, but you know,
things happen, fertilization, society adapts, technology adapts, and now more
people die of obesity than starvation, right. You know, I
remember when I was a kid back in the late eighties,
eighty seven, eighty eight, rural roads allowed you to go
from fifty five to sixty five miles an hour, and
(03:16):
now it's it can be faster than that. But there
was this, you know sense from the media it was
car desks, we're going to explode, and they did increase
initially on rural roads. But over the course of time,
there's technology advances and manufacturers make better cars and sturdier cars,
and society adapts and the media has to do a
(03:36):
better job, in my opinion, of constantly overreacting stuff. I'll
give you another example. During COVID college football, media is
like myocarditis. You can get an infection through a virus.
It's going to kill college football players. Well, first of all,
on average, it's treatable, and on average, the person that
(03:57):
gets myocarditis is in their mid forty not nineteen to
twenty years old in elite shape. So again, it's the
overreaction to things that either somebody writes a story in
the media and then everybody jumps on board and copies
it out of just apathy or laziness, or they don't
do their homework, or they're just overreacting and not considering.
(04:19):
There's just a lot of smart people out there, whether
it's on the processing of food, the creation of food,
whether it's manufacturing better cars, whether it's safety measures and vaccines.
During COVID, people figure stuff out. And the reason I
bring this up we had another great Thursday night game.
We've had multiple great Thursday night games. This is one
(04:41):
of the best games of the year. Minnesota and the
Rams was a good Thursday night game San Francisco in Seattle,
Tampa Bay, Atlanta went to overtime. Fantastic game, as good
as an NFC South game can get. Baker Mayfield and
Kirk Cousins showing off is that I remember about four
years ago and the media was going through a weird
time time. There were some cultural changes. It's when the
(05:03):
word woke started being used a lot, and you know
it can be overused and was overused, but it does exist.
And the media was just on this thing that Thursday
Night football. It was unfair to players, and it was
like I talked to NFL players and they liked Thursday
Night Football. You didn't hit that week. It was a
real light week of practice and then you know you're
off after the game until like the following Wednesday or Tuesday.
(05:26):
So a lot of guys it's like a second by
a lot of guys on the West Coast would go
to Hawaii or Mexico. A lot of guys in the
East Coast would go to the Bahamas. They treated it
as a second bye week. And so this idea that
it was too much for NFL players. These are twenty
five year old world class athletes that spend six and
(05:47):
seven figures on their bodies. They've got great training staffs
around them. They're going to be okay. And I think
again today, did these teams look fatigued and tired? Do
they look overwhelmed by playing a Thursday night football game?
Of course not. And again it's just and I'm part
of the media and I've overreacted before, but I thought
(06:09):
what you saw tonight, well, these Thursday night games, they
like to get these divisional rival games that are close.
They don't want to have to travel too far on
a Thursday. They want the game to be regional or divisional,
and these this was a perfect Thursday night game. Great
quarterback play, two teams that know each other, uh to
you know, I mean, I think Zach Taytor is a smart,
clever offensive coach, and I think John Harbaugh's great and
(06:32):
the teams. You know, clearly Baltimore looked a little off early,
but you know, they adapt their pro athletes. I thought
it was a classic illustration of basically Zach Taylor and
Joe Burrow having to overcome a terrible defense. And I
mean Baltimore's isn't great either, but through the years it
(06:55):
has been pretty consistently solid. Now, the Ravens have really
poured more money into their off offense, Lamar Jackson, Ronnie Stanley.
They just and got Deontay Johnson, so they're pouring more
of the money in offense, which is where NFL teams
should spend their money. But I never worry about Baltimore
being cheap or trying to save a nickel here or there,
or Cincinnati. That's the Brown family's history. So I just
(07:17):
feel like, you know, Joe Burrow, this is not the NBA.
He's not going to demand a trade, but I do
think he's been perpetually pissed this year because he's putting
up numbers like tonight. I mean, Jamar Chase had two
hundred and fifty yards and three touchdowns. I mean, they
did everything they could possibly do. Thought I thought that
it was a penalty obviously in the two point conversion
(07:37):
that was un called, not called, which is unfortunate, and
I you know, I'm not going to blame that. Listen,
when you give up the points in the yards that
Cincinnati did tonight, you were hardly perfect. Officials can miss calls,
and I've always thought in the NBA or in the NFL,
(08:00):
in the games officials are best served swallowing the whistle.
I mean, one of the things I noticed in the NFL,
and I'm sure you've noticed this is over the course
of the last eight to ten to twelve years, the
amount of contact that is allowed on the perimeter is insane.
You could call pass interference on every play. And I
think maybe it's the Belicheckian influence on the sport, where
(08:23):
you know, the Patriots just they were physical, they grabbed,
they touched, they'd wear the same colored gloves as the
team they were playing's uniform, and they were just it
was constant conflict and touching. You're not going to call
pass interference on every play, and so the reality over
time it's been normalized on the edges that you just
you got to grab. Now you can't put your arm
around a guy, but you can call pass interference constantly
(08:46):
in this league. And they and Baltimore was flagged for
it tonight several times. Personal fouls and pass interference on
a play like that. Good luck on the road getting
that call. And again, it's not like Cincinnati played flawless football.
Their defense was a mess. They're tackling was bad. I
do love this about Lamar Jackson, and I've said this
before and I'll say it again. The guy was two
hundred and ninety yards, four touchdowns, trailed by fourteen and
(09:09):
the third. One of the things I love about Lamar,
and this is certainly the case with a Josh Allen
and to Patrick Mahomes, you just don't know when they're
trailing if you watch them play. They don't play any
different when they're trailing them when they're leading. And I've
always thought the line in this league, the difference between
the haves and the have nuts in quarterback play is
the average quarterbacks in this league press when they're behind,
(09:30):
when you know they have to throw. A Geno Smith
a good player, but they don't feel the same. You're
watching Lamar Jackson down by fourteen and a half in
the third quarter. Excuse me, it doesn't matter. You can't
tell he doesn't care, totally unaffected, doesn't change his body language,
his composure, his aggressiveness. He's just such a special all
(09:50):
time athlete. And this nonsense that he's not a pocket quarterback,
which thankfully that's people have moved away from that. He's exceptional.
He does a really good job too. He's got a
little bit of a different throwing style, so did Philip Rivers.
You know, some guys just have a little bit of
a different you know, Justin Herbert looks like he could
be the NFL logo. He's got that perfect stance, you
(10:12):
know how like Jerry West was the NBA logo, the
late Jerry West. Justin Herbert. If the NFL ever did
a player logo, it would be a quarterback and Justin
Herbert literally could be the logo. He's got the perfect
long stride. But a lot of these guys have kind
of different deliveries. Aaron Rodgers sometimes throws off his he's
not even on the ground. So Lamar's got a little
bit of a different style. It's a little bit more
(10:33):
of a flip. I think Kyler Murray's got one of
the prettiest throws throwing motions in the league. But it
just works, and he has an ability. Lamar has an
ability to I think it's body confidence that he can
stare all over the field and then just in a
quarter second suddenly look over to the sideline where they
camp a guy and make a beautiful throw of eight
(10:56):
to twelve yards. He's just he's really got a sense
of composure and self aware and accuracy, and you know,
he and Joe Pearl, Joe Burrow put aduct click tonight.
It was an absolute clinic from both quarterbacks. And again,
these Thursday night football games, they're just fantastic. And the
only thing I don't like about Thursday night football two
(11:17):
of the top five quarterbacks in the NFL won't play Sunday.
And that's the downside to you know, if you do
Thursday night football and you do Monday night football. So
you know, Monday night Tua and Matt Stafford are playing
and Thursday night it's Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow. So
four of probably the twelve best quarterbacks in the league
are not playing Sunday. You know. So you know, I
(11:37):
can only take so much. Will Levis Sorry, it's that's
the only knock to me on these Thursday night football games.
Seven years ago, these games six years ago, the games
were awful. I mean it was like you felt like
you were getting Jacksonville and Steeters were wearing bumblebee uniforms.
Now they you know, they're putting up an almost every
Thursday night football game this year. I think it's the
best Thursday Night schedule. You've got a star quarterback tonight
(11:58):
you had two. And if you didn't enjoy that, I
don't you know. I like defense occasionally, but if you
didn't enjoy that, like it's you, it's not your sport.
That was just great. Great. Also had Cincinnati plus six.
Didn't know if I was going to win that at
one point, But I don't think less of Baltimore because
it's close. These division rival games. You get four, five
(12:21):
six points. If you have a capable quarterback in a
division rivalry game, take the points. Joe Burrow is one
of the I think he's five and zero this year
as a as an underdog against the spread on the
road this year, Joe Burrow, he's a great He's now
seventeen and three. Is Joe Burrow as a three point
(12:41):
or more underdog as an NFL quarterback? Seventeen and three now,
So congratulations to those who followed me on DraftKings. Now
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Speaker 1 (14:10):
All right, I am feeling good about my picks this week.
I've had a couple of weeks I like have. Also,
three of the last four weeks had good college bets.
By the way, we don't do those here. Chad Millman,
co host of the Favorites. All odds provided by DraftKings.
You don't get a freebie very often, but I feel
like I'm getting one this week. Tampa Bay short week,
(14:34):
all beat up against the Niners, team off of bye,
in a bad mood. Christian McCaffrey getting back. I mean
all the things you'd want short week over time other
team off of bye. This feels like the rare thank
you DraftKings. I'll make the deposit. I'll buy some jet
(14:54):
skis tonight, Sharper Square.
Speaker 3 (14:57):
Totally sharp. The wise guys have loved this one. It
was at five and a half, got up to six,
got up to six and a half. Now it's settled
in around six. I will not be surprised if this
gets up to six and a half. What's interesting about
this game is, you know we talk all the time
about the pro joe split, right the professionals on one side,
(15:21):
the amateurs on another. Normally, what you get is the joe's.
The amateurs like the big, fancy favorite. In this case,
the joe's have liked the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who have
actually been winning amateurs a lot of bets this season,
And because they look so good in overtime against the
(15:42):
Chiefs and the Niners have struggled, the joe's have been
coming in on the Bucks and the wise guys. For
your point, they like Christian McCaffrey coming back. They like
the Niners coming off a bye. They like having to
fade the Bucks traveling back home in a short week
overtime to play a really physical and healthy San Francisco team.
(16:06):
And there's a couple of trends that are worth looking at,
and a couple of matchups that are worth looking at.
Number One, the past decade, favorites on the road off
of a bye sixty percent against the spread. Favorites of
five and a half or more off a by on
the road seventy percent against the spread. What that tells
you is that when a team is good and they're
(16:28):
off the by and they go on the road in
their favorites, they tend to overperform, and then you got
the matchup. Everyone loves this Bucks team, but they are
terrible against the run, and if Christian McCaffrey is back,
all of a sudden, you've got a much bigger advantage
against the weakest part of the Bucks defense. Whise guys
are with you, Simon Simon? Whyse guys are with you, Colin.
(16:49):
I was thinking about my bff, Simon one hundred percent
on the Niners.
Speaker 1 (16:55):
Another game I like a lot is Arizona Cardinals plus one. Now.
Usually a star quarterback with extra time to prepare would
put me in a good mood. But I think extra
time helps for excellent coaching staffs, you know, dynamic offenses
in their prime. The Jets have an interim defensive coach,
(17:17):
they're on their second play caller. There is no proof
that extra time means anything to this team. And Arizona
at home now getting a point. I think people, I
know what you're thinking it. People are getting really high
on Arizona. This team beat San Francisco and Santa Clara.
They got really good offensive players and this is getting
(17:37):
to the point in the year when defensive players, I
mean the Jets defense isn't that good. It's just not
that good. I'm gonna take Arizona plus one Sharper square,
all right, Well it's square.
Speaker 3 (17:49):
And let's not use the Niners win as a barometer
of what this team is, right, because the Niners in
that game, they didn't have a kicker. They literally would
not kick a field goal when they were in the
red zone. They had to keep running it. And one
of those times, even though they were ahead, their running
(18:09):
back fumbled the ball and it sent them the Cardinals
towards a win in which they had about a five
percent chance of winning the game. In that exact moment.
The Cardinals have won three in a row. They're in
first place in the AFC West, ahead of the Rams,
ahead of the Seahawks, ahead of the Niners. There is
a lot of glow on this team right now, and
(18:31):
it is a team. To its credit, it has come
back from double digit downs in a couple of games,
and then it destroyed a Bear's team, which you and
I both know like they were primed to be destroyed.
I know I listened to your show. I know how
you feel about Ibra Flus. I know the stat you've
been drumming about him on the road. I agree with
(18:52):
you as a Bears fan. Terrible coach. That was the
exact spot for the Cardinals to look dominant.
Speaker 1 (18:57):
Right.
Speaker 3 (18:58):
The Jets with an anybuy getting healthier. No pressure on
Aaron Rodgers. I don't mean shoulders. I mean the Cardinals
cannot get any pressure. They are the worst in the league.
That is Taylor made for Aaron Rodgers to bring this
team back down to earth. The wise guys like the Jets.
The line has moved. The Jets were underdogs. The Jets
(19:21):
are now favorites.
Speaker 1 (19:22):
Okay, you're not getting the best of the number. I
like the Broncos seven and a half plus seven and
a half against the Chiefs. So Kansas City short week
over time, Kansas City is not a team that blows
people out Denver. Meanwhile, faced what teams do and they
realize it's a tsunami. Oh, let's go to Baltimore and
(19:42):
play an angry Ravens team they hammered last year, The Niners,
the Lions like teams that were healthy at the time.
Miami going to Baltimore shouldn't even count. You should be
just like not any other place in the league. Nobody,
no team humiliates more teams than Baltimore in a bad
mood at home. It doesn't matter San Francisco. I mean
(20:04):
McVeigh lost last year. I thought it was this best
coach game of the year. When they lost at Baltimore,
I thought that was when I bought the Rams. It's like, oh,
they didn't get crushed, okay, So don't just wipe that away.
Denver's not a terrible team. Kansas City's not a great team.
Division rivals. One team's humiliated one team on a short
(20:24):
weekend overtime. I thought it was a gift at nine.
I still like Denverse seven and a half. Sharper square.
Speaker 3 (20:31):
It was a gift at nine, It was a gift
at nine and a half, at nine, at eight and
a half, at eight, seven and a half, that's where
you stop. Take it at seven and a half. Do
not take it at seven. Of course, the wise guys
are going to be on a huge and in this case,
seven is huge Division road underdog. Those ten to two
(20:52):
favor in terms of ROI playing the underdog the Chiefs.
When Patrick Mahomes is a favorite of three or more,
he has a losing record against the spread. They're not
the kind of team. And I know you've talked about
this as well. They are not a blow them out
team right now. Maybe they're going to get there with
DeAndre Hopkins, with Travis Kelce getting more unto the flow
(21:15):
and then understanding who they are offensively now, but they
are not there yet. And in this fourteen game win streak,
they're beating teams by five or six points a game,
right so they are not the kind of team, and
especially in the second half, they slow it down. They
get leads in the first half, and then they slow
it down in the second half. The Broncos have a
great defense, and you can say everything you just said
(21:36):
about the Ravens, all the wise guys believe as well.
They went on the road, they got throttled. The first
play of the game, bo Nicks throws an interception off
of rever receiver's hands, and everything sort of went wrong
for them the rest of the day. But this is
a team that continues to grind and play to the
whistle and play to the end of the game. I
know there's a cliches, but in this case they're true
(21:58):
because bo Nicks is being treated as if he's a
third or fourth year quarterback. Not a first year quarterback.
So the expectation is that the Broncos will stay in
this game and keep the back door open, and the
Chiefs will allow them to keep the back door open. Also,
one thing I would say past twenty years, teams that
are off of a twenty plus blowout loss, which the
(22:19):
Broncos are fifty percent against spread So.
Speaker 1 (22:23):
There are times when I just don't think teams are
going to play perfect. I'm getting three and a half
Texans at home against the Lions and Detroit has This
is not a game that you have circled as a
Lions fan. You have big games coming up against, you know,
in division teams. This is kind of one of those
(22:44):
weird Hey we got to go on the road and
play the Texans. For the Texans, they look at Detroit
and think, she's this is like playing the Chiefs. This
is we got to get right three and a half.
I think you come out of a divisional game with
Green Bay you really are feeling it. I think Detroit's better,
but the better team doesn't know us win. Sometimes it's
the home team where you feel like there's real urgency
(23:06):
to make a statement. I like the Texans plus three
and a half here Sharper square.
Speaker 3 (23:12):
Yeah, the numbers move from four and a half to
three and a half, and I think that the wise
guys are with you here, but three will be the
tipping point. If it gets to three, the wise guys
will come in on the Lions. And we've talked about this.
The beauty of the Lions is that their strength is
in their offensive line and for lack of a better term,
(23:36):
physical travels in football, right, running backs can have a
bad game depending on the surface. Quarterbacks can play better
outdoors than indoors. Offensive lines all you're doing is lining
up across the guy in front of you and beating
him up, and the Lions do that better than any
(23:57):
offensive line in the league. I think that is why
I you know, last week, all the professional betters were
all over the Packers against the Lions. They thought the
Lions are going to be outside. Jared Goff has a
bulky ankle. This is the spot where you're going to
fade a team that everybody had been making money on,
even as big favorites, because they thought we thought we'd
(24:18):
see the letdown spot in a really physical game. Didn't
happen like the physical travel So I do worry about
the Texans being able to out physical the Lions especially.
We don't know what's happening with Will Anderson. And in
that Jets game against the Texans, when Will Anderson went out,
(24:41):
the Texans were dominating. As soon as he's out, the
Jets took that game over. So it is, it's the
right side. The wise guys are playing it. It's not
my favorite.
Speaker 1 (24:52):
Though, here's a game where I understand the hook and
so people won't bet this side. But there are teams
that I think get healthy or get right, and the
market's not quite adjusted. I think the Chargers are going
to be a problem this point forward. When you look
(25:13):
at that receiving cor last week and all of a
sudden you're like, oh, it's not a huge weakness now,
it's actually okay. With the development of Quinton Johnston, Ladd McConkey, Palmer, Disley, Hearst, JK. Dobbins,
you're like, oh shit, they're kind of right now. I
think they're going to start reeling off some kind of
(25:35):
punishing dominant wins. Herbert now is healthy. I think the Chargers,
even at seven and a half, are a little undervalued.
I really do. I know it's not sharp. I would
take the Chargers comfortably over the Titans. For the record,
when we've seen the Titans play good teams, it's fools
(25:57):
gold like they can hang with bad teams. I've seen
overwhelmed against well coached teams. I know it's square Chargers
seven and a half.
Speaker 3 (26:06):
What say you, Yeah, it's totally square. The only side
to take here is the Titans. Either don't bet it
or take the Titans. I'm not betting this game. I'm
a huge Chargers backer. Last week, everybody was saying the
Browns are cresting. You gotta get the Browns right now.
(26:27):
Jamis is back and I looked at that game and
we talked about this on the favorites several times because
it made no sense to me. The Chargers were two
point favorites on the road, and if you break down
that handicap, Chargers should have been two point favorites on
the road. They have the better quarterback who doesn't turn
the ball over. They have a really good physical offensive line.
(26:49):
We just talked about the Lions. I see the Chargers
built in the same mold as the Lions. As we
build the next twelve twenty four to thirty six months
with what Harribaugh was trying to do there. I love
this Chargers team. I think seven and a half points
is too high. There's too much quirkiness that can come
into play in these games when the number is that
(27:11):
high and there's.
Speaker 1 (27:13):
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a paid advertisement. Okay, here's a game, and I hate
to do this because I really really like the Rams
(28:39):
and their young defense a lot. It was plus two
and a half and I really like Miami at two
and a half. Now it's down to one, so I
think it won. I would take the Rams, but there's
a game every week where I'm like, tell me what
to bet. I really I think the Rams are so
(29:01):
talented defensely. Defensively, they have not missed on a draft pick,
a defensive draft pick in two years. They one of
their safeties is an undrafted rookie from Tennessee. The volunteers
hess four picks. The other kid from Miami is a
pick six kid. I mean like they're hitting on everybody
verse the two Florida State guys young. Yeah, I mean everyone.
(29:23):
They all Kobe Turner from Wake Forest, they all are good.
They're all better than their draft spot. I want to
take the Rams so bad, but that numbers moving around,
it tells me the Sharps were on Miami right.
Speaker 3 (29:37):
The wise guys have been all over Miami, and I'll
tell you. You know, you and I when we did
our Sunday show at ESPN, we always had a pick
where we went against the wise guys and we called
it the executive decision, and you just nailed the game.
That is the executive decision for me. I love the Rams.
I feel like the Ram. I bet the Rams last
(29:58):
week as favorites against the Seahawks a miracle cover. But
Matthew Stafford, there are quarterbacks in the NFL you think about, Okay,
it's the end of the game. I need this guy
to get me the cover or I don't want to
be against this guy if I bet against him. Matthew Stafford,
(30:19):
Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, those are the people
that you don't want to be against. I don't want
to be against Matthew Stafford. Ever, if I can get
Matthew Stafford basically at pick at home when his team
was won three in a row. You mentioned verse Randon Fisk,
the other guy from Florida State. He had a great
(30:41):
game last week. And don't forget Sean McVay, who I
think is brilliant. Obviously, it's not like, you know, I'm
revealing a secret. His offense, as magical as it is,
as much as we talk about Cooper Cup and Pooka
Nakua and going downfield, it's a motion offense that is
(31:02):
basically predicated on the running game. And Kyron Williams is
a brilliant running back, probably a top five all around
running back in the league right now. And that Miami
Dolphins defense is not very good against the run. So
I'm getting a physical team. The defense is up and coming.
I love that defense. They've been lights out playmaking.
Speaker 1 (31:21):
I'm with you. I don't see it.
Speaker 3 (31:23):
I don't see why the wise guys are on the Dolphins.
If you want to exact decision this, I'm with you
one hundred percent.
Speaker 1 (31:30):
Okay, you know I love the number four Bills minus
four at the Colts. You know, if this is a
division game, it's different. I do worry about this quarterbacks
off concussions. Tua was better in the second game. Remember
the first game was Arizona. We talked about this. Okay,
better in the second game. Joe Flacco first game pretty ugly.
(31:55):
Now it's the second game, so it tells me you're
not the people now look at Buffalo and they look
at the Colts and think Flacco's old and washed, no
old quarterback coming in second game. I love minus fours,
I take favorites. Something tells me the Colts is really
(32:16):
really one of the better sharp sides of the week.
Speaker 3 (32:18):
Sharper square, huge sharp side this week. It was at
four and a half for a hot minute, went to four.
A lot of three and a half's out there now.
The wise guys have been piling in on the Colts.
Two different scenarios here, both of which the wise guys
like the Colts. For one, it's a by Low sell high.
(32:41):
The Bills are seventy two. They just came off of
a huge, high profile win sixty one yard field goal
Division rival. They basically have the AFC locked up the
first week in November, huge huge cell high situation. The Colts,
big Joe Flacco starting for Anthony Richardson. That gives us
(33:03):
a better chance to win. They go into Minnesota in
prime time. They can't even get past the twenty yard line, right,
They cannot score, So all of a sudden, you've got
to buy low. So that's one scenario in which the
wise guys feel like it's overinflated because of what happened
in national television for the Colts, and then you got
to look. The Colts have a dominant run blocking unit
(33:28):
that is to the detriment of the Bills rush defense.
So in a lot of different metrics, whether it's yards
per play, yards are expected points on the rush, total
rushes of ten plus yards, which is sort of an
explosive metric, the Colts are top five. The Bills are
(33:49):
not very good defending against the runs, so there is
an advantage there, and the Cults rush defense has been
getting much better. We saw that against the Vikings with
Grover Stewart and Brentson Buckner. So there is an opportunity
here against what is the strength of the Bills defense
or offense to stop them. So the wise guys are huge,
huge fans of the culture.
Speaker 1 (34:08):
Every week there's a game I miss it's usually egregiously
bad to watch. Chad Millman, co host of the Favorites,
All odds provided by DraftKings, what's the game I missed?
It doesn't include Jacksonville.
Speaker 3 (34:22):
Well it doesn't this week. Normally it would, but you know,
with Mac Jones playing, I will say, like the line
jumped from about four to seven seven and a half.
I still don't think that's enough. That's how bad most
people think Mac Jones is. So I'm not even gonna
ask you to do anything with that game. I will
say the wise guys have been on the Giants against
(34:43):
the Panthers in the game in Munich. I won't ask
you to talk about that game. I'm a little surprised,
like you brought up all the games that are most
interesting to me one game. There are two games we
didn't discuss. One is a little high profile. I'm surprised
you to bring it up. Which is the Steeler and
the Commander.
Speaker 1 (35:00):
I want it so there's every week there's a game
I want to watch. I just want to watch it.
I think it's a fascinating game. There's an argument to
be made the Steelers have the best defense in the league.
They've really figured out, by the way, how to use
Russell Wilson. Like Greg Cosell told me today, I said,
it reminds me a little of the Seattle Seahawks power run,
(35:23):
defensive culture, one one, two, good weapons, a tough place
to play at home. He goes, But that's exactly what
the video tells you it's a poor man Seahawks team.
I kind of like Pittsburgh here right getting points, Yes,
you do.
Speaker 3 (35:37):
What's scary is you can't get to three anymore, right
because it was at three. When it got to three,
the wise guys, they immediately bet the three and it
went down to two and a half, and it's just
sort of sitting at two and a half. I would
still play the two and a half. Two is a
key number in the NFL now with all the extra
points being missed or teams going for two more offense,
(36:00):
I wouldn't be afraid of the two and a half.
But this is really the best defense. You just noted
that Jad and Daniels has faced from two defensive ends
who can really rush the passer, and because Alex Highsmith
was out for most of October, their rush metrics are
not as high as they normally are. But he's been
(36:22):
back and this is really a stellar defense. It's also
a raw rob Mike Tomlin. Spot you got Mike Tomlin.
Speaker 1 (36:29):
He's the best underdog coach Burrow is the best underdog quarterback.
I believe, yes, and I believe Tomlin getting two and
a half points here against Washington's the best underdog coach colin.
Speaker 3 (36:41):
The numbers back you up the Mike Tomlin sixty one
percent against the spread as a dog on the road
in his career. He is the most profitable coach as
an underdog against the spread this generation, in the history
of data that we have tracking all this stuff going
back about two years. The most profitable coach in this
(37:02):
situation also twenty five and five straight up against rookie QBS.
Everyone is looking for the moment to sell the Commanders
because they've been extraordinarily good. The Steelers off a bye
with these two defensive ends and Mike Tomlin as the coach,
might be the time to do it. But I didn't
give you the gross game, all right? Can I interest
(37:26):
you in the New Orleans Saints plus three and a
half against the Atlanta Falcons.
Speaker 1 (37:34):
No, you can't at all.
Speaker 3 (37:37):
We are playing We are playing the dead cat bounce.
We have a team that has a new coach that
got rid of the guy who by all accounts, and
we've been hearing this for more than a year, they
hated Dennis Allen.
Speaker 1 (37:50):
How many point Dennis Allen? They're getting three and a half.
They were here. Here's the thing.
Speaker 3 (37:55):
The Saints are getting three and a half. They were
getting four. It's down to three and a half. So
you know, the wise guy on them because the public
is betting the Falcons. So we got a pro joe
split here. This team played so badly last week. The
most popular player, Cam Jordan, apologized on Twitter and if
you look at the games Derek Carr started. Look, they've
(38:15):
lost seven in a row for those games with Derek Carr.
One of those games Kansas City, they lost twenty six
to thirteen, but it was closer than the score the
other The other three games they were by three points,
two points, in one point, including one of these games
against Atlanta. So I know, like the receivers are out.
They just traded Lattimore to Marshall Lattimore the cornerback to
(38:38):
the Commanders. But this is the spot to back the Saints.
You just got to hold your nose and do it.
You might not bet them again the rest of the year.
It's like we bet the Panthers when Andy Dalton came in,
because you knew there'd be some kind of change. Derek
Carr second game back, new coach.
Speaker 1 (38:59):
This is it. There's the whole ball.
Speaker 3 (39:01):
Of wax So, and this Atlanta team has generally been mediocre,
Like they're not blowing teams out, they're getting really lucky.
It's it's a situation where the number is a little
bit inflated because the Falcons have been doing so well
and the public sentiment on the Saints is so low.
(39:21):
So the wise guys are on the Saints.
Speaker 1 (39:24):
And the Marcus Lattimore trade, he wasn't playing anyway, so
it's not like they're pulling out a guy who's used
like Pro Bowl level corner. He's been struggling. He's got
a hamstring issue, so good storied with it. Do it?
Speaker 2 (39:38):
Do It?
Speaker 1 (39:38):
Come on the volume. Thanks so much for listening. If
you've enjoyed the podcast, take a moment, rate and review,
Host
Colin Cowherd
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