Colin’s top takes of the week!
He starts with his reaction to an incredible Thursday Night Football game in which the Ravens beat the Bengals 35-34 and the quarterbacking “clinic” put on by Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson (3:00).
Then he’s joined by John Middlekauff, host of “3 and Out” to break down the week 9 Sunday action.
They start with Saquon Barkley’s impact on the Eagles and why he’s transformed their offense (21:00) but have reservations about the Eagles in the postseason. They move on to why the Cowboys are a “bad football team” without many good players (25:00) and try to make sense of the mess that is the Chicago Bears (30:30)
Then, Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network and host of “The Favorites” podcast, joins Colin for a round of “Sharp or Square,” to help provide Colin with the sharpest betting advice for week 10 of the NFL slate.
43:15 - Bucs vs 49ers
46:00 - Cardinals vs Jets
48:30 - Broncos vs Chiefs
51:30 - Texans vs Lions
54:00 - Titans vs Chargers
56:15 - Rams vs Dolphins
59:15 - Bills vs Colts
01:00:45 - Steelers vs Commanders
01:05:30 - Saints vs Falcons
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements.)
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
The volume.
Speaker 2 (00:04):
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Baltimore win over Cincinnati thirty five to thirty four, another
great Thursday night football game, one of the best games
(01:08):
of the year. This is I had the Bengals plus
six tonight for this very reason. These are great rivals,
two of the best quarterbacks on display. Defenses, you know,
this is why Kansas City should be favored to win
the AFC. Those defenses need a ton of work. In fact,
let's talk about going for two. I would have gone
for two. Baltimore scored on four straight drives. Defenses, you know,
(01:32):
if you have an average defense, Cincinnati's defense first half
a lot of energy. Guys are feeling great, they've got momentum.
But eventually a bad defense gets more tired, it gets
more beat up. You lose a couple of players who
get banged up, and by the end of the game,
you know Cincinnati's defense was gassed and they get exposed.
(01:54):
A lot of defenses have a really good first quarter.
A lot of defenses you know when they've got great energy.
They're aggressive offenses, and big games can be a little tight,
restrictive conservative. But over the course of a game, these
are not great defenses, and both Joe Burrow and Lamar
Jackson just lit the defenses up. I would have gone
(02:17):
for it. First of all, I think aggressive wins. I'm
usually a go for it teams that go to overtime
generally historically don't play well the next week. The extra
fifteen snaps or whatever it is. So I think Zach
Taylor made the right call. But you know, I want
to talk about something. Is one of the things the
media does that really frustrates me that they don't consider
(02:40):
how society adapts. They overreact to things. I could give
you multiple examples. I was listening to a podcast recently
and the guy was talking about, you know, one hundred
years ago or more, you know, people thought we were
going to run out of food, but you know, things
happen fertilization, society adapts, technology adapts, and now more people
(03:02):
die of obesity than starvation, right. You know, I remember
when I was a kid back in the late eighties,
eighty seven eighty eight, rural roads allowed you to go
from fifty five to sixty five miles an hour, and
now it can be faster than that. But there was this,
you know, sense from the media it was car desks
were going to explode, and they did increase initially on
(03:24):
rural roads. But over the course of time, there's technology
advances and manufacturers make better cars and sturdier cars, and
society adapts and the media has to do a better job,
in my opinion, of constantly overreacting stuff. I'll give you
another example. During COVID college football media is like myocarditis.
(03:48):
You can get an infection through a virus. It's going
to kill college football players. Well, first of all, on average,
it's treatable, and on average, the person that gets myocarditis
is in their mid forties, nineteen to twenty years old,
in elite shape. So again, it's the overreaction to things
that either somebody writes a story in the media and
(04:11):
then everybody jumps on board and copies it out of
just apathy or laziness, or they don't do their homework,
or they're just overreacting and not considering. There's just a
lot of smart people out there, whether it's on the
processing of food, the creation of food, whether it's manufacturing
better cars, whether it's safety measures and vaccines. During COVID,
(04:34):
people figure stuff out. And the reason I bring this
up we had another great Thursday night game. We've had
multiple great Thursday night games. This is one of the
best games of the year. Minnesota and the Rams was
a good Thursday night game. San Francisco in Seattle, Tampa Bay,
Atlanta went to overtime. Fantastic game, as good as an
NFC South game can get. Baker Mayfield and Kirk Cousins
(04:54):
showing off is that I remember about four years ago
and the media was going through a weird time. There
were some cultural changes. It's when the word woke started
being used a lot, and you know, it can be overused,
and it was overused, but it does exist. And the media
was just on this thing that Thursday Night football. It
was unfair to players, and it was like I talked
(05:15):
to NFL players and they like Thursday Night Football. You
didn't hit that week. It was a real light week
of practice and then you know you're off after the
game until like the following Wednesday or Tuesday. So a
lot of guys it's like a second by a lot
of guys on the West Coast would go to Hawaii
or Mexico. A lot of guys in the East Coast
would go to the Bahamas. They treated it as a
(05:36):
second bye week. And so this idea that it was
too much for NFL players. These are twenty five year
old world class athletes that spend six and seven figures
on their bodies, They've got great training staffs around them.
They're going to be okay. And I think again today,
did these teams look fatigued and tired? Do they look
(05:58):
overwhelmed by playing a Thursday night football game? Of course not.
And again it's just I'm part of the media and
I've overreacted before. But I thought what you saw tonight, well,
these Thursday night games, they like to get these divisional
rival games that are close. They don't want to have
to travel too far on a Thursday. They want the
game to be regional or divisional, and these this was
(06:19):
a perfect Thursday night game. Great quarterback play, two teams
that know each other to you know, I mean, I
think Zach Taytor is a smart, clever offensive coach, and
I think John Harbaugh's great and the teams. You know,
clearly Baltimore looked a little off early, but you know,
they adapt their pro athletes. I thought it was a
(06:41):
classic illustration of basically Zach Taylor and Joe Burrow having
to overcome a terrible defense. And I mean Baltimore's isn't
great either, but through the years it has been pretty
consistently solid. Now the Ravens have really poured more money
into their offense, Lamar Jackson, Ronnie Stanley. They just went
(07:03):
and got Deontay Johnson. So they're pouring more of the
money in offense, which is where NFL teams should spend
their money. But I never worry about Baltimore being cheap
or trying to save a nickel here or there, or Cincinnati.
That's the Brown family's history. So I just feel like,
you know, Joe Burrow, this is not the NBA. He's
not going to demand a trade. But I do think
he's been perpetually pissed this year because he's putting up
(07:25):
numbers like tonight. I mean, Jamar Chase had two hundred
and fifty yards and three touchdowns. I mean, they did
everything they could possibly do. I thought I thought there
was a penalty obviously in the two point conversion that
was un called not called, which is unfortunate, and I
you know, I'm not going to blame that. Listen, when
you give up the points in the yards that Cincinnati
(07:48):
did tonight, you were hardly perfect. Officials can miss calls,
and I've always thought in the NBA or in the NFL,
at the end the games, officials are best served swallowing
the whistle. I mean, one of the things I noticed
in the NFL, and I'm sure you've noticed this is
over the course of the last eight to ten to
(08:09):
twelve years, the amount of contact that is allowed on
the perimeter is insane. You could call pass interference on
every play. And I think maybe it's the Belicheckian influence
on the sport, where you know, the Patriots just they
were physical, they grabbed, they touched, they'd wear the same
colored gloves as the team they were playing's uniform, and
(08:30):
they were just it was constant conflict and touching. You're
not going to call pass the interference on every play.
And so the reality over time it's been normalized on
the edges that you just you got to grab. Now
you can't put your arm around a guy, but you
can call pass interference constantly in this league. And they
and Baltimore was flagged for it tonight several times. Personal
fouls and pass interference on a play like that. Good
(08:52):
luck on the road getting that call. And again, it's
not like Cincinnati played flawless football. Their defense was a mess.
They're tackling was bad. I do love this about Lamar
Jackson and I've said this before and I'll say it again.
The guy was two hundred and ninety yards four touchdowns,
trailed by fourteen and the third. One of the things
I love about Lamar, and this is certainly the case
(09:13):
with a Josh Allen and to Patrick Mahomes, you just
don't know when they're trailing. If you watch them play.
They don't play any different when they're trailing them when
they're leading. And I've always thought the line in this league,
the difference between the haves and the have nuts in
quarterback play is the average quarterbacks in this league press
when they're behind, when you know they have to throw.
A Geno Smith a good player, but they don't feel
(09:36):
the same. You're watching Lamar Jackson down by fourteen and
half in the third quarter. Excuse me, it doesn't matter.
You can't tell he doesn't care, totally unaffected, doesn't change
his body language, his composure, his aggressiveness. He's just such
a special, all time athlete. And this nonsense that he's
not a pocket quarterback, which thankfully that's people have moved
(09:57):
away from that. He's exceptional, really good job too. He's
got a little bit of a different throwing style, so
did Philip Rivers. You know, some guys just have a
little bit of a different you know, Justin Herbert looks
like he could be the NFL logo. He's got that
perfect stance, you know, had like Jerry West was the
NBA logo, the late Jerry West that Justin Herbert. If
the NFL ever did a player logo, it would be
(10:18):
a quarterback and Justin Herbert literally could be the logo.
He's got the perfect long stride. But a lot of
these guys have kind of different deliveries. Aaron Rodgers sometimes
throws off his he's not even on the ground. So
Lamar's got a little bit of a different style. It's
a little bit more of a flip. I think Kyler
Murray's got one of the prettiest throws throwing motions in
the league. But it just works, and he has an ability.
(10:42):
Lamar has an ability to. I think it's body confidence
that he can stare all over the field and then
just in a quarter second suddenly look over to the
sideline where they camp a guy and make a beautiful
throw of eight to twelve yards. He's just he's really
got a sense of composure and self awareness and accuracy,
and you know, he and Joe Pearl, Joe Burrow product
(11:03):
clinic tonight. It was an absolute clinic from both quarterbacks.
And again, these Thursday night football games, they're just fantastic.
And the only thing I don't like about Thursday night
football two of the top five quarterbacks in the NFL
won't play Sunday. And that's the downside to you know,
if you do Thursday night football and you do Monday
(11:24):
night football, So you know, Monday night Tua and Matt
Stafford are playing, and Thursday night it's Lamar Jackson and
Joe Burrow. So four of probably the twelve best quarterbacks
in the league are not playing Sunday. You know, So
you know, I can only take so much. Will Levis, Sorry,
it's that's the only knock to me on these Thursday
night football games. Seven years ago, these games six years ago,
(11:45):
the games were awful. I mean it was like you
felt like you were getting Jacksonville and Steeters were wearing
bumblebee uniforms. Now they you know, they're putting up an
almost every Thursday night football game this year. I think
it's the best Thursday night schedule. You've got a star
quarterback tonight you had two and and if you didn't
enjoy that, I don't you know. I like defense occasionally,
but if you didn't enjoy that, like it's not your
(12:06):
it's not your sport, that was just great. Great. Also
had Cincinnati plus six. Didn't know if I was going
to win that at one point. But I don't think
less of Baltimore because it's close. These division rival games.
You get four, five six points. If you have a
capable quarterback in a division rivalry game, take the points.
(12:26):
Joe Burrow is one of the I think he's five
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Speaker 2 (14:04):
All right, John Middlecoff, It's time for our hour plus
on a Sunday. He is the former NFL scout for
the Philadelphia Eagles Three and Out podcast. Let's start with
a team you're near and dear to the Philadelphia Eagles.
So they did it on the ground, in the air.
They beat the Jags twenty eight to twenty three, although
Jacksonville with a massive late game comeback, Trevor Lawrence one
(14:27):
got a little loose Onnomy through a pick in the
end zone. You know, my takeaway on this is, I'll
go back to saying this, Jalen's not making the mistakes
and Barkley, Saquon Barkley's absolutely With Christian McCaffrey not playing yet,
Barkley's the best running back in the league. And I
think what Jalen hurts as they win today, My take
is they've gotten him out of the position where I
(14:48):
don't feel like he's ad libbing or out of control
like I thought Jordan loved today for the Packers was
out of control multiple times. I kind of think Philadelphia's
figured out kind of the way to use Allen. What
do you see?
Speaker 1 (15:02):
Well, I think Saquan's definitely changed their team. I mean
he's been him and Derrick Henry you talk about additions
this offseason, those two guys. I mean, Dereck Henry was
probably a Hall of Fame player before this. Now he
cemented himself. I mean, there's no one's ever questioned Saquan's talent.
I mean, what would Penn State do to have that
guy right now on their team? I mean, they did
have an offensive weapon, but to me, I mean, the
(15:22):
only reason that game was close was Sirianni and Kellen.
I'm not quite sure what was going on there with
some of the play calling. Yeah, they instead of kicking
a field goal, I didn't get that, decided not to
do the tush push and they roll him out and
he's got nowhere to go. Like right now, their offense,
I mean AJ Brown, which is a pretty big deal.
Not maybe in this game, but I guess they play
the Cowboys next week, so not in that game either,
(15:43):
but in two weeks against Washington.
Speaker 4 (15:45):
His presence for them to beat really good teams as
a must have.
Speaker 1 (15:48):
But when you're playing a team like today, DeVante Smith
what a draft pick. I mean, I thought, wait, this
guy's gonna be one hundred and seventy five pounds.
Speaker 2 (15:55):
I don't think he would last in this league.
Speaker 1 (15:58):
How about his one handed touchdown? Oh my god, so
you ad Saquon to him? I mean the guy that
had the game winning interception to Kobe Dean. I mean,
they have a lot of young defensive players. The last
couple of weeks, Nolan Smith has been all over the
quarterback like I trust Vic Fangio. To me, it just
gets down to Sirianni who if they had lost today,
(16:19):
Colin to Doug Peterson and the Jags who they had fired,
do you know, I mean Embiid would have been let
off the hook because it would have been a Siria
You cannot lose that game. And it got weird obviously
the freak Saquon fumble, But that's a little too close
for comfort given how well their top guys were playing.
Speaker 2 (16:37):
Oh yeah, I mean Barkley was great. Jalen went like
eighteen to twenty four, two hundred and thirty yards. No,
you know, no interceptions there. The receivers that were on
the field were excellent. They actually, I mean they they
had four hundred and fifty plus yards of offense six
point five yards per play. They were great on third down.
They dominate time of possession, and you look up and
you're like, you're at home and it's twenty eight twenty three.
Speaker 4 (17:00):
It's they were up twenty two. Nothing right.
Speaker 1 (17:02):
It looked like they were gonna blow him out forty
to ten or something.
Speaker 4 (17:05):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (17:05):
I just feel like I kind of feel like this
is the rare instance. And I felt this a couple
of years ago with Detroit. But I've come to terms
with Ben Johnson, the coordinator for the Lions. I didn't trust.
I really didn't trust Dan Campbell.
Speaker 4 (17:23):
I do now.
Speaker 2 (17:24):
I think he has grown. I think he's a little
less emotional now. I also think he realizes he's no
longer hunting, he's being hunted. They're the favorite. I think
he I think like today they got a lead, they
got real smart, they got real conservative. It was really
really smart Lions football. I feel like Siriani's like Dan
(17:45):
Campbell a couple of years ago. He's still trying to
prove himself. I want to show you guys how smart
I am. And then when you make mistakes like yelling
at the crowd and get your hands slapped by the owners,
then you kind of double down on I want to
show how smart I am. And there I just think
with Dan Campbell I've seen growth. I do think he's
a better, more mature coach today. And with Siriani, I
(18:06):
think they're gonna get to the playoffs, and I think
they're gonna have all these weapons and outplay people, and
I think they're gonna lose to a really smart, efficient team.
Atlanta beats the Cowboys twenty seven to twenty one. So
if you didn't watch this game, I could sum it
up with the multiple fall starts, the nine penalties for Dallas,
too many men on the field, and a fourth down.
(18:28):
Atlanta basically got out rushed, out passed. But Dallas was
so bad on fourth down, so many pedalties, so inefficient,
and Kirk Cousins just go out, goes out nineteen and
twenty four, doesn't make any big mistakes. Like Atlanta's not
physically impressive, but Atlanta's really efficient because they brought Kirk
(18:49):
Cousins in, who just doesn't make a lot of mistakes.
He gets you in and out of plays. When I
watched Dallas today, Mike McCary, Mike McCarthy's frustration with you.
I mean, when you have Dak Prescott, they're a veteran team,
you can't have false starts, illegal motions like it feels
like to me, that is so much on the quarterback.
Now he left and Cooper Rush came in. But I
(19:12):
you know, I had said before the year, this was
one of my I guess I'm actually wrong on this.
I said Dallas won't make the playoffs. It'll be Philadelphia
and Washington in that division. It will begin a slight regression. John.
They may be a bottom four team in the league.
And I'm dead serious. They're they're they're better than the
Raiders because of dak uh Hell and Cooper Rush. I
(19:33):
think they're better than Carolina, probably better than New Orleans
now they weren't in Week two. Dallas is a bad
football team without a lot of good players.
Speaker 1 (19:44):
Yeah. I thought coming into this week we were gonna learn, like,
are they just going to end up sucking all season
and being a five or six win team or they
gonna have a little heart and battle and you know,
at the end of the year be eight to nine.
But if shown some metal throughout the year, I think
they're headed toward five or six wins now. Yeah, and
today didn't it Simbal Eyes before the game even kicked off,
they less they left Zeke back at home Yeah, all
(20:05):
I had heard from Cowboys people is listen, we know
he doesn't have as much, but the leadership, yeah, the camaraderie,
him and Dak are close. And then these stories about
he never shows up on time, he's disgruntled.
Speaker 4 (20:15):
It's like, well, then Whysey on the team?
Speaker 1 (20:18):
And is that a little bit I'm not putting this
all on Dak, but isn't that Dak's one of his
best friends? Like, so what do we got going on there?
And then as the game goes on today it was
a reflection of they don't have that much talent. Oh
how often today Jesus even on like just random innocuous
plays Bijon in space out in the flat and three
guys would whiff and he'd get eight yards. That should
(20:40):
have been one.
Speaker 2 (20:41):
Listen, John, on a fourth and one, they have so
little talent in the backfield. On a fourth and one,
they had to use deception on a quick on a
like a jet sweep to CD lamb. Now, yeah, it
worked about twenty minutes later, same play. But on a
fourth and one with a very quarterback Zach Martin, one
(21:01):
of the great guards ever, they had to get clever
and tricky. They have no run game. One of the
easiest predictions anybody could have made going into this season,
if Dallas would have the worst running back room in
the league. I mean, we watched Zeke in New England.
He can't he's done, it's over. They made no moves,
they they it's it's remarkable. Now, I'm not saying Derek
(21:22):
Henry would be as good as we've talked about in Dallas.
As Baltimore, you start looking at it. I've said before
the season, if Ceedee Lamb twisted an ankle, this is
the worst offense in the league. I mean, it's it's
it's I watched them today and I'm like, they it
was just all a cotton candy yards. I mean, Atlanta
was so much smarter, more efficient, good on third down.
Speaker 4 (21:46):
I was.
Speaker 1 (21:46):
I was playing golf the other day with a diehard
cowboy fan. This guy's been to countless games over the
last thirty years, and I asked him, do you think
Dak Prescott's better than Tony Romo? And you were always
one of Tony's biggest defenders. Yeah, And he's said, you know,
I would have told you four or five years ago, yes,
but at this point in time, you can't watch these
games up until Tony's back went.
Speaker 4 (22:06):
He was a more dynamic absolutely, absolutely, and in.
Speaker 1 (22:10):
Twenty one, twenty two, and even last year, those teams
were so good. I mean in twenty one and twenty
two the Cowboys were really good.
Speaker 4 (22:19):
I mean they had a.
Speaker 1 (22:19):
Home playoff game, they were toe to toe with the
Niners in the second round, and they're I mean, Dak
didn't just have one bad play, like he.
Speaker 4 (22:26):
Was atrocious through most of those games.
Speaker 1 (22:28):
So I think, listen, this is not his fault, you know,
in terms of the pie chart one if they go
six or seven or maybe five wins, but he has
kind of crumbled like he has not been an elevator,
talk about trailers and tractors, clear where he falls. And honestly,
today was just an embarrassing day for the organization. Yeah,
(22:49):
I mean I think Mike's hands were on it, Jerry's
hands were on it. Because the Zeke thing to me
symbolizes I thought that moment. I thought the Bears benching
the guy for like two series like this is we're
not little league or high school, We're not teaching life lessons.
Speaker 4 (23:03):
You either leave him at home, yeah.
Speaker 1 (23:04):
And make him in active to show like this will
never be tolerated, or you just start him like this
is a business. You know, we're trying to win or lose.
Speaker 4 (23:11):
I got nope.
Speaker 1 (23:12):
I would have made him inactive to show everyone just
like the Cowboys did. Zeke, you're not showing up. But
there's no middle ground. This isn't high school football where
it's like you're gonna sit out the first series or
two like that.
Speaker 4 (23:23):
That to me is so dumb.
Speaker 1 (23:25):
I mean, that's that's embarrassing at the highest level. It's
just that's why you know, certain teams lose, and obviously
the same teams consistently win over and over.
Speaker 2 (23:35):
A game today that I thought was important and symbolic,
Arizona crushes the Bears twenty nine to nine. Kyler Murray
barely had to throw. There was a lot of I mean,
they led twenty nine, twenty one to nine and a half.
I think the bigger story is Caleb Williams was ineffective.
(23:55):
The offensive line was overwhelmed. The offensive line. I've talked
about this so many times, John, defensive coaches and offensive
lines are a problem. The Bears. Klob's been out played
badly by Kyler Murray and Jaden Daniels. The last two weeks,
he's dancing around in the back getting sacked by Arizona
(24:18):
offensive lines gotten worse. And I watched today there was
a safety on the Bears at one point as they
lost twenty nine to nine. There wasn't a There wasn't
once we got to the second quarter. There wasn't a
minute I thought Chicago could win. I think Caleb is
clearly Even though bow Knicks got rolled today, Baltimore at
(24:41):
homes much better. That was one of the easiest bets
of the year. Taking the Ravens minus eight to nine,
bow Knicks looks like he's got it to earned control.
I mean there's I think he really looks like for
the personnel they have, obviously Jade.
Speaker 4 (24:53):
He actually didn't play terribly. No, no, no, he wasn't.
Speaker 2 (24:56):
He just I mean, they don't have seven guys who
would start for the Ravens. They have Patrick Certan, maybe
a safety.
Speaker 4 (25:01):
That's about it.
Speaker 2 (25:03):
But when I look at Caleb right now, they average
three point four yards of play. It is screaming to
get rid of Matti Eberflus. I mean, I just a
whole game, I'm like this, it just doesn't work. He
doesn't have the right coordinator. It's a mess in Chicago.
Speaker 1 (25:17):
Now, Well, if I had told you by the middle
of the season that if the Bears called up the
Washington Commanders and said before the season and said, would
you trade Jaden Daniels straight up for Caleb Williams, and
the Commanders would laugh at them and hang up the phone,
you would have said the Bears have serious issues. Because
two things can be true. Today was an embarrassing day
(25:38):
for Eberflus, but so was last week, and so was
this offseason when it was pretty clear you're putting this
guy into a lame duck situation. This is not a
McCarthy that at least listen. I know he's under his
last year, but he has a long resume of success,
and he coaches the quarterback who you're going to pay
two hundred million dollars to.
Speaker 4 (25:56):
This is a head coach, a he's a good defensive coach, never.
Speaker 1 (25:58):
Won anything, and you have no faith that he's going
to do it, and now you have to fire him
a year in.
Speaker 4 (26:04):
But I think the bigger picture you see it with
Trevor Lawrence.
Speaker 1 (26:07):
I mean, they brought in Doug and this is just
not going well for him relative to hype. These things
can snowball and get out of hand fast, and you invested,
Actually you didn't because you made the trade, but you
got this player. You chose him over these other players,
specifically Jayden, who again long way to go. I mean
ideally they both have fifteen year careers. Jayden Daniels is
(26:29):
currently one of the best players in the NFL, no
question like he's one of the best players in the NFL.
Speaker 2 (26:33):
It looks totally under control.
Speaker 1 (26:36):
And Caleb looks like a mid round pick forced to
start because a quarterback got injured in the preseason.
Speaker 4 (26:43):
He makes some plays, but he misses a lot of
stuff that Listen, we saw.
Speaker 1 (26:47):
Him making college and this gets back to people that
were questioning him. He can freelance and get a little
willy nilly, and that doesn't really work in the NFL,
and you see him just get peppered. He's not comfortable
in the pocket. The coaching staff's terrible. I do think
the Tyreek Stevenson benching was just a joke. And if
I'm Eberflus, I wouldn't want him in active. I'd want
(27:08):
to just start them. But if you're Ryan Poles, you're
not going anywhere. You want to show all these other
guys that, like the standards are high, they're in no
man's land, right, they really are, And I doubt they
would fire I mean, that's a fireable game. I don't
expect the Bears to fire him. But like these last
two weeks, I mean they were thoroughly outplayed the week
before too right, it was you know, I know, the
(27:29):
Hail Mary, but they were worked that game, like we know,
before they even get to the tough stretch of their season,
Like this ain't a playoff team like this team, I
mean Arizona, that to me is like a fringe wild
card team. Just beat the living piss out of them.
I just can't take the Bear seriously anymore.
Speaker 2 (27:43):
No, and this was supposed to be the two game
stretch Arizona and New England next where they had a
shot right to make up some before they go into Detroit, Minnesota,
San Francisco, Green Bay. You know, I think there's I've
almost said there's one or two in football that are undervalued,
and yet there are things we know are valuable. I
(28:05):
think a great offensive coordinator or great offensive coach, you're
better on third down, you're better on offensive line. You're
better at drafting offensive personnel. I mean, the Rams just
figure out ways to mix and match their offensive line.
They're in a wild one with the Seahawks today, but
they're still you know, ham an egg and in the
(28:25):
interior of the offensive line. These defensive coaches. Chicago's offensive
line last year felt like an ascending group. You had
your tackles a little soft in the middle. It is
a mess with Caleb Williams mobility, it's a mess today.
So I just think you get to a point where
(28:45):
you I don't think people understand the difference between a
really smart offensive coach and an average defensive coach. It
is a touchdown to ten point difference a game.
Speaker 1 (28:57):
I do think to that moment last week on the
Hail Mary was reflective of their head coach, right, because
let's take a couple of top defensive coaches, right Tomlin
John Harbaugh especial teams guy, but he also the dB guy.
You could never envision that play with that player happening,
taunting the crowd like that. That just would never happen
(29:19):
with the Ravens and Steelers in that moment. So to me,
that reflected let alone, like he's been pretty good on defense.
Today he loses his best defensive player. James Connor looked
like Walter.
Speaker 4 (29:29):
Payton against him.
Speaker 1 (29:30):
I mean it was like, you guys are that dependent
on one guy. And offensively, I always talk about like
defensive guys know nothing about offense, right, I mean, they
know how to stop offenses, but they don't know. They're
not calling the plays, they're not in their coaching.
Speaker 2 (29:44):
Brady Brady Brady made fun of Belichick not even understanding
the terminology of offense.
Speaker 4 (29:51):
Yeah, it's just it's so the Bears.
Speaker 1 (29:56):
Honestly, this goes back to what ten months ago, eleven
months ago, when they knew and they tried to have
their cake and eat it too and keep their fingers crossed.
And now they're gonna have to fire this guy, and
it sets the whole clock off when they could have
just started at scratch. Maybe Ben Johnson would have been interested,
Maybe they could have hired v Abel and just had
a fresh runway. Now you derail everything because one thing
(30:18):
you would say is like, well, eberflu is kind of
good on defense, so now you get a new guy.
Just it just you know, upsets the Apple card which
needed upsetting in January. I mean, and today was Today
was really bad because coming off that loss, I thought
two teams had huge bounce. Like to me, the Ravens
of last year blow the team out, and they did today.
Speaker 4 (30:39):
So it's like, okay, you know the.
Speaker 1 (30:41):
Browns game, weird Outliar Jamis got hot, throw that away.
Speaker 4 (30:44):
The Ravens are the real deal.
Speaker 1 (30:46):
And the Bears like, okay, if this is gonna be
a wildcard team, they come into Arizona.
Speaker 4 (30:49):
Even if it's tight, Arizona's not easy. You win the game.
Speaker 1 (30:52):
A lot of I live out here, I would imagine
that were half the stadium was Bears fans.
Speaker 4 (30:57):
Yeah, so it's a big deal for them. And they,
like you said, that game was over before it even started.
They got shellacked.
Speaker 2 (31:12):
All right. I am feeling good about my picks this week.
I've had a couple of weeks I like have. Also,
three of the last four weeks had good college bets.
By the way, we don't do those here. Chad Millman,
co host of the Favorites. All odds provided by DraftKings.
You don't get a freebie very often, but I feel
like I'm getting one this week. Tampa Bay Short Week,
(31:35):
all beat up against the Niners, team off of bye
in a bad mood. Christian McCaffrey getting back. I mean
all the things you'd want short week over time, other
team off of bye. This feels like the rare thank
you draft Kings. I'll make the deposit. I'll buy some
(31:56):
jet Skis tonight, Sharper square, totally sharp.
Speaker 5 (32:00):
The wise guys have loved this one. It was at
five and a half, got up to six, got up
to six and a half. Now it's settled in around six.
I will not be surprised if this gets up to
six and a half. What's interesting about this game is,
you know, we talk all the time about the pro
joe split, right, the professionals on one side, the amateurs
(32:23):
on another. Normally, what you get is the Joe's the
amateurs like the big fancy favorite. In this case, the
jos have liked the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who have actually
been winning amateurs a lot of bets this season, And
because they look so good in overtime against the Chiefs
(32:45):
and the Niners have struggled, the Joe's have been coming
in on the Bucks and the wise guys. For your point,
they like Christian McCaffrey coming back. They like the Niners
coming off a bye. They like having to fade the
Bucks traveling back home in a short week after overtime
to play a really physical and healthy San Francisco team.
(33:08):
And there's a couple of trends that are worth looking
at and a couple of matchups that are worth looking at.
Number One, the past decade, favorites on the road off
of a bye sixty percent against the spread. Favorites of
five and a half or more off a by on
the road seventy percent against the spread. What that tells
you is that when a team is good and they're
(33:30):
off the by and they go on the road in
their favorites, they tend to overperform. And then you've got
the matchup. Everyone loves this Bucks team, but they are
terrible against the run, and if Christian McCaffrey is back,
all of a sudden, you've got a much bigger advantage
against the weakest part of the Bucks defense. Whise guys
are with you, Simon, Simon, Whise guys are with you, Colin.
(33:51):
I was thinking about my bff Simon one hundred on
the Niners.
Speaker 2 (33:56):
Another game I like a lot is Arizona Cardinals, play now.
Usually a star quarterback with extra time to prepare would
put me in a good mood. But I think extra
time helps for excellent coaching staffs, you know, dynamic offenses
in their prime. The Jets have an interim defensive coach,
(34:18):
they're on their second play caller. There is no proof
that extra time means anything to this team. And Arizona
at home now getting a point. I think people, I
know what you're thinking it. People are getting really high
on Arizona. This team beat San Francisco and Santa Clara.
They got really good offensive players, and this is getting
(34:39):
to the point in the year when defensive players. I mean,
the Jets defense isn't that good. It's just not that good.
I'm gonna take Arizona plus one Sharper square, all.
Speaker 5 (34:50):
Right, Well it's square. And let's not use the Niners
win as a barometer of what this team is, right,
because the Niners in that game, they they didn't have
a kicker. They literally could not kick a field goal.
When they were in the red zone, they had to
keep running it. And one of those times, even though
they were ahead, there running back fumbled the ball and
(35:13):
it sent them the Cardinals towards a win in which
they had about a five percent chance of winning the game.
In that exact moment, the Cardinals have won three in
a row. They're in first place in the AFC West,
ahead of the Rams, ahead of the Seahawks, ahead of
the Niners. There is a lot of glow on this
team right now, and it is a team to its credit,
(35:35):
it has come back from double digit downs in a
couple of games, and then it destroyed a Bear's team,
which you and I both know like they were primed
to be destroyed. I know, I listened to your show.
I know how you feel about Ibra Flus, I know
the stat you've been drumming about him on the road.
I agree with you as a Bears fan, terrible coach.
(35:56):
That was the exact spot for the Cardinals to look dominant,
right the Jets with a mini bi getting healthier. No
pressure on Aaron Rodgers. I don't mean shoulders. I mean
the Cardinals cannot get any pressure. They are the worst
in the league. That is Taylor made for Aaron Rodgers
to bring this team back down to earth. The wise guys,
(36:19):
like the Jets. The line has moved. The Jets were
underdogs the Jets are now favorites.
Speaker 2 (36:24):
Okay, you're not getting the best of the number. I
like the Broncos seven and a half plus seven and
a half against the Chiefs. So Kansas City short week
over time. Kansas City is not a team that blows
people out. Denver, meanwhile, faced what teams do and they
realize it's a tsunami. Oh, let's go to Baltimore and
(36:44):
play an angry Ravens team. They hammered last year, the Niners,
the Lions like teams that were healthy at the time.
Miami going to Baltimore shouldn't even count. You should be
just like not any other place in the league, nobody.
No team humiliates more teams then Baltimore in a bad
mood at home. It doesn't matter San Francisco. I mean
(37:06):
McVeigh lost last year. I thought it was this best
coach game of the year. When they lost at Baltimore,
I thought that was when I bought the Rams. It's like, oh,
they didn't get crushed, Okay, so don't just wipe that away.
Denver's not a terrible team. Kansas City's not a great team.
Division rivals. One team's humiliated. One team on a short
(37:26):
weekend overtime. I thought it was a gift at nine.
I still like denverse seven and a half sharper square.
Speaker 5 (37:33):
It was a gift at nine, It was a gift
at nine and a half, at nine, at eight and
a half, at eight, seven and a half, that's where
you stop. Take it at seven and a half. Do
not take it at seven. Of course, the wise guys
are going to be on a huge and in this
case seven is huge division road underdog. Those ten to
(37:54):
two favor in terms of ROI playing the underdog the Chiefs.
When Patrick Mahomes is a favorite of three or more,
he has a losing record against the spread. They're not
the kind of team. And I know you've talked about
this as well. They are not a blow them out
team right now. Maybe they're going to get there with
DeAndre Hopkins, with Travis Kelce getting more out of the flow,
(38:17):
and them understanding who they are offensively now, but they
are not there yet. And in this fourteen game win streak,
they're beating teams by five or six points a game,
right so they are not the kind of team, and
especially in the second half, they slow it down. They
get leads in the first half and then they slow
it down in the second half. The Broncos have a
great defense, and you can say everything you just said
(38:38):
about the Ravens, all the wise guys believe as well.
They went on the road, they got throttled. The first
play of the game, bo Nix throws an interception off
of rever receiver's hands, and everything sort of went wrong
for them the rest of the day. But this is
a team that continues to grind and play to the
whistle and play to the end of the game. I
know there's a cliches, but in this case they're true
(39:00):
because Bonnicks is being treated as if he's a third
or fourth year quarterback, not a first year quarterback. So
the expectation is that the Broncos will stay in this
game and keep the back door open, and the Chiefs
will allow them to keep the back door open. Also,
one thing I would say past twenty years, teams that
are off of a twenty plus blowout loss, which the
(39:21):
Broncos are fifty against spread, So.
Speaker 2 (39:25):
There are times when I just don't think teams are
going to play perfect. I'm getting three and a half
Texans at home against the Lions, and Detroit has this
is not a game that you have circled as a
Lions fan. You have big games coming up against, you know,
in division teams. This is kind of one of those
(39:45):
weird Hey, we got to go on the road and
play the Texans. For the Texans, they look at Detroit
and think, she's this is like playing the Chiefs. This
is we got to get right three and a half.
I think you come out of a divisional game with
green Bay really are feeling it. I think Detroit's better,
but the better team doesn't know us win. Sometimes it's
the home team where you feel like there's real urgency
(40:08):
to make a statement. I like the Texans plus three
and a half here Sharper square.
Speaker 5 (40:14):
Yeah, the numbers move from four and a half to
three and a half, and I think that the wise
guys are with you here. But three will be the
tipping point. If it gets to three, the wise guys
will come in on the Lions. And we've talked about this.
The beauty of the Lions is that their strength is
in their offensive line and for lack of a better term,
(40:38):
physical travels in football right, running backs can have a
bad game depending on the surface. Quarterbacks can play better
outdoors than indoors offensive lines. All you're doing is lining
up across the guy in front of you and beating
him up, and the Lions do that better than any
(40:59):
offensive line in the league. I think that is why
you know last week, all the professional betters were all
over the Packers against the Lions. They thought the Lions
are going to be outside Jared Goff has a bulky ankle.
This is the spot where you're going to fade a
team that everybody had been making money on, even as
big favorites, because they thought. We thought we'd see the
(41:20):
letdown spot in a really physical game. Didn't happen like
the physical travel. So I do worry about the Texans
being able to out physical the Lions, especially. We don't
know what's happening with Will Anderson. And in that Jets
game against the Texans, when Will Anderson went out, the
(41:43):
Texans were dominating. As soon as he's out, the Jets
took that game over. So it is it's the right side.
The wise guys are playing it. It's not my favorite, though.
Speaker 2 (41:54):
Here's a game where I understand the hook and so
people won't bet this side. But there are teams that
I think get healthy or get right, and the market's
not quite adjusted. I think the Chargers are going to
be a problem this point forward. When you look at
that receiving cor last week and all of a sudden
(42:16):
you're like, oh, it's not a huge weakness now, it's
actually okay. With the development of Quinton Johnston, Laddin, McConkey, Palmer, Disley, Hearst, JK. Dobbins,
you're like, oh shit, they're kind of right now. I
think they're going to start reeling off some kind of
(42:37):
punishing dominant wins Herbert now is healthy. I think the Chargers,
even at seven and a half, are a little undervalued,
I really do. I know it's not sharp. I would
take the Chargers comfortably over the Titans for the record.
When we've seen the Titans play good teams, it's fools
(42:58):
gold like they can hang bad teams. I've seen them
overwhelmed against well coached teams. I know it's square. Chargers
seven and a half, what say you.
Speaker 5 (43:09):
Yeah, it's totally square. The only side to take here
is the Titans. Either don't bet it, or take the Titans.
I'm not betting this game. I'm a huge Chargers backer.
Last week, everybody was saying the Browns are cresting. You
gotta get the Browns right now. Jamis is back and
(43:30):
I looked at that game and we talked about this
on the Favorites several times because it made no sense
to me. The Chargers were two point favorites on the road,
and if you break down that handicap, Chargers should have
been two point favorites on the road. They have the
better quarterback who doesn't turn the ball over. They have
a really good physical offensive line. We just talked about
(43:52):
the Lions. I see the Chargers built in the same
mold as the Lions as we build the next twelve
twenty fourth threety six months with what Horriba was trying
to do there. I love this Chargers team. I think
seven and a half points is too high. There's too
much quirkiness that can come into play in these games
(44:12):
when the number is that high and there's a hook involved.
Speaker 2 (44:16):
Okay, here's a game. And I hate to do this
because I really really liked the Rams and their young
defense a lot. It was plus two and a half,
and I really liked Miami at two and a half.
Now it's down to one, so I think it won.
I would take the Rams, but there's a game every
(44:38):
week where I'm like, tell me what to bet. I really,
I think the Rams are so talented defensively. Defensively, they
have not missed on a draft pick, a defensive draft
pick in two years. One of their safeties is an
undrafted rookie from Tennessee the volunteers. Heiss four picks. The
other kid from Miami is a pick six kid. I
(45:00):
mean like they're hitting on everybody, verse the two Florida
State guys young, I mean everyone. They all Kobe Turner
from Wake Forest, they all are good. They're all better
than their draft spot. I want to take the Rams
so bad, but that numbers moving around, it tells me
the Sharps were on Miami, right.
Speaker 5 (45:21):
The wise guys have been all over Miami. And I'll
tell you know you and I but we did our
Sunday show at ESPN. We always had a pick where
we went against the wise guys and we called it
the executive decision, and you just nailed the game. That
is the executive decision for me. I love the Rams.
I feel like the Rams. I bet the Rams last
(45:42):
week as favorites against the Seahawks, a miracle cover. But
Matthew Stafford. There are quarterbacks in the NFL you think about, Okay,
it's the end of the game. I need this guy
to get me the cover, or I don't want to
be against this guy if I bet against him. Matthew Stafford,
(46:03):
Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, those are the people
that you don't want to be against. I don't want
to be against Matthew Stafford. Ever, if I can get
Matthew Stafford basically at pick at home when his team
was won three in a row. You mentioned verse Randon Fisk,
the other guy from Florida State. He had a great
(46:25):
game last week. And don't forget Sean McVay, who I
think is brilliant. Obviously, it's not like you know, I'm
revealing a secret. His offense as magical as it is,
as much as we talk about Cooper Cup and Poka
Nakua and going downfield, it's a motion offense that is
(46:46):
basically predicated on the running game. And Kyron Williams is
a brilliant running back, probably a top five all around
running back in the league right now. And that Miami
Dolphins defense is not very good against the run. So
I'm getting a physical team. The defense is up and coming.
I love that defense. They've been lights out playmaking. I'm
with you, I don't see it. I don't see why
(47:08):
the Wise guys are on the Dolphins. If you want
to exact decision this, I'm with you one hundred percent.
Speaker 2 (47:14):
Okay, you know I love the number four Bills minus
four at the Colts. You know, if this is a
division game, it's different. I do worry about this. Quarterbacks
off concussions. Tua was better in the second game. Remember
the first game was Arizona. We talked about this. Okay,
better in the second game. Joe Flacco first game pretty ugly.
(47:39):
Now it's the second game, so it tells me you're
not the people now look at Buffalo and they look
at the Colts and think Flacco's old and washed. No
old quarterback coming in second game. I love minus fours.
I take favorites. Something tells me the Colts is really
(47:59):
really one of the better sharp sides of the week.
Speaker 5 (48:01):
Sharper square, huge sharp side this week. It was at
four and a half for a hot minute, went to four.
A lot of three and a half's out there now.
The Wise guys have been piling in on the Colts.
Two different scenarios here, both of which the wise guys
like the Colts. For one, it's a by Low sell high.
(48:25):
The Bills are seven to two. They just came off
of a huge, high profile win sixty one yard field
goal Division rival. They basically have the AFC locked up
the first week in November, huge huge cell high situation.
The Colts, big deal Joe Flacco starting for Anthony Richardson.
(48:46):
That gives us a better chance to win. They go
into Minnesota in primetime, they can't even get past the
twenty yard line, right, they cannot score. So all of
a sudden, you've got to buy low. So that's one
scenario in which the wise guys feel like it's overinflated
because of what happened in national television for the Cults.
(49:06):
And then you got to look, the Colts have a
dominant run blocking unit that is to the detriment of
the Bills rush defense. So in a lot of different metrics,
whether it's yards per play, yards are expected points on
the rush, total rushes of ten plus yards, which is
(49:28):
sort of an explosive metric, the Cults are top five
the Bills are not very good defending against the run,
so there is an advantage there, and the Cults rush
defense has been getting much better. We saw that against
the Vikings with Grover Stewart and Brentson Buckner. So there
is an opportunity here against what is the strength of
the Bills defense or offense to stop them. So the
(49:50):
Wise Guys are huge, huge fans of the culture.
Speaker 2 (49:52):
And every week there's a game I miss it's usually
egregiously bad to watch. Chad Millman, co host of the
favor it's all odds provided by DraftKings. What's the game
I missed? It doesn't include Jacksonville.
Speaker 5 (50:06):
Well it doesn't this week. Normally it would, but you know,
with Mac Jones playing, I will say, like the line
jumped from about four to seven seven and a half.
I still don't think that's enough. That's how bad most
people think Mac Jones is. So I'm not even gonna
ask you to do anything with that game. I will say,
the Wise guys have been on the Giants against the
(50:27):
Panthers in the game in Munich. I won't ask you
to talk about that game. I'm a little surprised, like
you brought up all the games that are most interesting
to me.
Speaker 4 (50:38):
One game.
Speaker 5 (50:38):
There's two games we didn't discuss. One is a little
high profile. I'm surprised you to bring it up, which
is the Steelers in the Commoner.
Speaker 2 (50:44):
So every week there's a game I want to watch.
I just want to watch it. I think it's a
fascinating game. There's an argument to be made the Steelers
have the best defense in the league. They've really figured out,
by the way, how to use Russell Wilson, and like
Greg Cosell told me today, I said, it reminds me
a little of the Seattle Seahawks power run, defensive culture
(51:08):
one one, two, good weapons, a tough place to play
at home. He goes, But that's exactly what the video
tells you. It's a poor man Seahawks team. I kind
of like Pittsburgh here, right, getting points, Yes.
Speaker 5 (51:20):
You do. What's scary is you can't get to three anymore,
right because it was at three. When it got to three, guys,
they immediately bet the three and it went down to
two and a half. And it's just sort of sitting
at two and a half. I would still play the
two and a half. Two is a key number in
the NFL. Now with all the extra points being missed
(51:42):
or teams going for two more often, so I wouldn't
be afraid of the two and a half. But this
is really the best defense. You just noted that Jayden
Daniels has faced from two defensive ends who can really
rush the passer, and because Alex Highsmith was out for
most of October, their rush metrics are not as high
(52:04):
as they normally are. But he's been back and this
is really a stellar defense. It's also a Row rob
Mike tomlinst you got Mike Tomlin the.
Speaker 2 (52:13):
Best underdog coach. Burrow is the best underdog quarterback I believe,
and I believe Tomlin getting two and a half points
here against Washington's the best underdog coach.
Speaker 4 (52:24):
Colin.
Speaker 5 (52:25):
The numbers back you up. Mike Tomlin sixty percent against
spread as a dog on the road in his career.
He is the most profitable coach as an underdog against
the spread this generation in the history of data that
we have tracking all this stuff going back about twenty years.
The most profitable coach in this situation also twenty five
(52:48):
and five straight up against rookie QBS. Everyone is looking
for the moment to sell the Commanders because they've been
extraordinarily good. The Steelers off of with these two defensive
ends and Mike Tomlin as the coach. Might be the
time to do it, But I didn't give you the
gross game. Can I interest you in the New Orleans
(53:12):
Saints plus three and a half against the Atlanta Fountains?
Speaker 2 (53:17):
No, you can't at all.
Speaker 5 (53:19):
Yes, we are playing. We are playing the dead cat bounce.
We have a team that has a new coach that
got rid of the guy who, by all accounts, and
we've been hearing this for more than a year, they
hated Dennis.
Speaker 2 (53:34):
How many points.
Speaker 5 (53:35):
They've been out on Dennis Auten. They're getting three and
a half Saints. They were here. Here's the thing, the
Saints are getting three and a half. They were getting four.
It's down to three and a half. So you know,
the wise guys are on them because the public is
betting the Falcons. So we got a pro Joe split here.
This team played so badly last week. The most popular player,
Cam Jordan apologized on Twitter. And if you look at
(53:58):
the games Derek Carters started, Look, they've lost seven in
a row for those games with Derek Carr. One of
those games Kansas City. They lost twenty six to thirteen,
but it was closer than the score the other The
other three games they were by three points, two points
in one point, including one of these games against Atlanta.
So I know, like the receivers are out. They just
(54:18):
traded Latimore to Marshall Lattimore the cornerback to the Commanders.
But this is the spot to back the Saints. You
just got to hold your nose and do it. You
might not bet them again the rest of the year.
It's like we bet the Panthers when Andy Dalton came
in because you knew there'd be some kind of change.
(54:40):
Derek Carr second game back, new coach.
Speaker 4 (54:43):
This is it.
Speaker 5 (54:44):
There's the whole ball of wax So and this Atlanta
team had generally been mediocre. Like they're not blowing teams out,
they're getting really lucky. It's it's a situation where the
number is a little bit in f because the Falcons
have been doing so well and the public sentiment on
the Saints is so low, so the wise guys are
(55:06):
on the Saints.
Speaker 2 (55:07):
And the Marcus Lattimore trade, he wasn't playing anyway, so
it's not like they're pulling out a guy who's used
like pro bowl level corner. He's been struggling. He's got
a hamstring issue. Yeah, so much stuff.
Speaker 1 (55:20):
Ride with it.
Speaker 4 (55:21):
Do it? Do it? Come on.
Speaker 5 (55:26):
The volume.
Speaker 2 (55:28):
Thanks so much for listening. If you've enjoyed the podcast,
take a moment rate and review
The volume.
Speaker 2 (00:04):
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Baltimore win over Cincinnati thirty five to thirty four, another
great Thursday night football game, one of the best games
(01:08):
of the year. This is I had the Bengals plus
six tonight for this very reason. These are great rivals,
two of the best quarterbacks on display. Defenses, you know,
this is why Kansas City should be favored to win
the AFC. Those defenses need a ton of work. In fact,
let's talk about going for two. I would have gone
for two. Baltimore scored on four straight drives. Defenses, you know,
(01:32):
if you have an average defense, Cincinnati's defense first half
a lot of energy. Guys are feeling great, they've got momentum.
But eventually a bad defense gets more tired, it gets
more beat up. You lose a couple of players who
get banged up, and by the end of the game,
you know Cincinnati's defense was gassed and they get exposed.
(01:54):
A lot of defenses have a really good first quarter.
A lot of defenses you know when they've got great energy.
They're aggressive offenses, and big games can be a little tight,
restrictive conservative. But over the course of a game, these
are not great defenses, and both Joe Burrow and Lamar
Jackson just lit the defenses up. I would have gone
(02:17):
for it. First of all, I think aggressive wins. I'm
usually a go for it teams that go to overtime
generally historically don't play well the next week. The extra
fifteen snaps or whatever it is. So I think Zach
Taylor made the right call. But you know, I want
to talk about something. Is one of the things the
media does that really frustrates me that they don't consider
(02:40):
how society adapts. They overreact to things. I could give
you multiple examples. I was listening to a podcast recently
and the guy was talking about, you know, one hundred
years ago or more, you know, people thought we were
going to run out of food, but you know, things
happen fertilization, society adapts, technology adapts, and now more people
(03:02):
die of obesity than starvation, right. You know, I remember
when I was a kid back in the late eighties,
eighty seven eighty eight, rural roads allowed you to go
from fifty five to sixty five miles an hour, and
now it can be faster than that. But there was this,
you know, sense from the media it was car desks
were going to explode, and they did increase initially on
(03:24):
rural roads. But over the course of time, there's technology
advances and manufacturers make better cars and sturdier cars, and
society adapts and the media has to do a better job,
in my opinion, of constantly overreacting stuff. I'll give you
another example. During COVID college football media is like myocarditis.
(03:48):
You can get an infection through a virus. It's going
to kill college football players. Well, first of all, on average,
it's treatable, and on average, the person that gets myocarditis
is in their mid forties, nineteen to twenty years old,
in elite shape. So again, it's the overreaction to things
that either somebody writes a story in the media and
(04:11):
then everybody jumps on board and copies it out of
just apathy or laziness, or they don't do their homework,
or they're just overreacting and not considering. There's just a
lot of smart people out there, whether it's on the
processing of food, the creation of food, whether it's manufacturing
better cars, whether it's safety measures and vaccines. During COVID,
(04:34):
people figure stuff out. And the reason I bring this
up we had another great Thursday night game. We've had
multiple great Thursday night games. This is one of the
best games of the year. Minnesota and the Rams was
a good Thursday night game. San Francisco in Seattle, Tampa Bay,
Atlanta went to overtime. Fantastic game, as good as an
NFC South game can get. Baker Mayfield and Kirk Cousins
(04:54):
showing off is that I remember about four years ago
and the media was going through a weird time. There
were some cultural changes. It's when the word woke started
being used a lot, and you know, it can be overused,
and it was overused, but it does exist. And the media
was just on this thing that Thursday Night football. It
was unfair to players, and it was like I talked
(05:15):
to NFL players and they like Thursday Night Football. You
didn't hit that week. It was a real light week
of practice and then you know you're off after the
game until like the following Wednesday or Tuesday. So a
lot of guys it's like a second by a lot
of guys on the West Coast would go to Hawaii
or Mexico. A lot of guys in the East Coast
would go to the Bahamas. They treated it as a
(05:36):
second bye week. And so this idea that it was
too much for NFL players. These are twenty five year
old world class athletes that spend six and seven figures
on their bodies, They've got great training staffs around them.
They're going to be okay. And I think again today,
did these teams look fatigued and tired? Do they look
(05:58):
overwhelmed by playing a Thursday night football game? Of course not.
And again it's just I'm part of the media and
I've overreacted before. But I thought what you saw tonight, well,
these Thursday night games, they like to get these divisional
rival games that are close. They don't want to have
to travel too far on a Thursday. They want the
game to be regional or divisional, and these this was
(06:19):
a perfect Thursday night game. Great quarterback play, two teams
that know each other to you know, I mean, I
think Zach Taytor is a smart, clever offensive coach, and
I think John Harbaugh's great and the teams. You know,
clearly Baltimore looked a little off early, but you know,
they adapt their pro athletes. I thought it was a
(06:41):
classic illustration of basically Zach Taylor and Joe Burrow having
to overcome a terrible defense. And I mean Baltimore's isn't
great either, but through the years it has been pretty
consistently solid. Now the Ravens have really poured more money
into their offense, Lamar Jackson, Ronnie Stanley. They just went
(07:03):
and got Deontay Johnson. So they're pouring more of the
money in offense, which is where NFL teams should spend
their money. But I never worry about Baltimore being cheap
or trying to save a nickel here or there, or Cincinnati.
That's the Brown family's history. So I just feel like,
you know, Joe Burrow, this is not the NBA. He's
not going to demand a trade. But I do think
he's been perpetually pissed this year because he's putting up
(07:25):
numbers like tonight. I mean, Jamar Chase had two hundred
and fifty yards and three touchdowns. I mean, they did
everything they could possibly do. I thought I thought there
was a penalty obviously in the two point conversion that
was un called not called, which is unfortunate, and I
you know, I'm not going to blame that. Listen, when
you give up the points in the yards that Cincinnati
(07:48):
did tonight, you were hardly perfect. Officials can miss calls,
and I've always thought in the NBA or in the NFL,
at the end the games, officials are best served swallowing
the whistle. I mean, one of the things I noticed
in the NFL, and I'm sure you've noticed this is
over the course of the last eight to ten to
(08:09):
twelve years, the amount of contact that is allowed on
the perimeter is insane. You could call pass interference on
every play. And I think maybe it's the Belicheckian influence
on the sport, where you know, the Patriots just they
were physical, they grabbed, they touched, they'd wear the same
colored gloves as the team they were playing's uniform, and
(08:30):
they were just it was constant conflict and touching. You're
not going to call pass the interference on every play.
And so the reality over time it's been normalized on
the edges that you just you got to grab. Now
you can't put your arm around a guy, but you
can call pass interference constantly in this league. And they
and Baltimore was flagged for it tonight several times. Personal
fouls and pass interference on a play like that. Good
(08:52):
luck on the road getting that call. And again, it's
not like Cincinnati played flawless football. Their defense was a mess.
They're tackling was bad. I do love this about Lamar
Jackson and I've said this before and I'll say it again.
The guy was two hundred and ninety yards four touchdowns,
trailed by fourteen and the third. One of the things
I love about Lamar, and this is certainly the case
(09:13):
with a Josh Allen and to Patrick Mahomes, you just
don't know when they're trailing. If you watch them play.
They don't play any different when they're trailing them when
they're leading. And I've always thought the line in this league,
the difference between the haves and the have nuts in
quarterback play is the average quarterbacks in this league press
when they're behind, when you know they have to throw.
A Geno Smith a good player, but they don't feel
(09:36):
the same. You're watching Lamar Jackson down by fourteen and
half in the third quarter. Excuse me, it doesn't matter.
You can't tell he doesn't care, totally unaffected, doesn't change
his body language, his composure, his aggressiveness. He's just such
a special, all time athlete. And this nonsense that he's
not a pocket quarterback, which thankfully that's people have moved
(09:57):
away from that. He's exceptional, really good job too. He's
got a little bit of a different throwing style, so
did Philip Rivers. You know, some guys just have a
little bit of a different you know, Justin Herbert looks
like he could be the NFL logo. He's got that
perfect stance, you know, had like Jerry West was the
NBA logo, the late Jerry West that Justin Herbert. If
the NFL ever did a player logo, it would be
(10:18):
a quarterback and Justin Herbert literally could be the logo.
He's got the perfect long stride. But a lot of
these guys have kind of different deliveries. Aaron Rodgers sometimes
throws off his he's not even on the ground. So
Lamar's got a little bit of a different style. It's
a little bit more of a flip. I think Kyler
Murray's got one of the prettiest throws throwing motions in
the league. But it just works, and he has an ability.
(10:42):
Lamar has an ability to. I think it's body confidence
that he can stare all over the field and then
just in a quarter second suddenly look over to the
sideline where they camp a guy and make a beautiful
throw of eight to twelve yards. He's just he's really
got a sense of composure and self awareness and accuracy,
and you know, he and Joe Pearl, Joe Burrow product
(11:03):
clinic tonight. It was an absolute clinic from both quarterbacks.
And again, these Thursday night football games, they're just fantastic.
And the only thing I don't like about Thursday night
football two of the top five quarterbacks in the NFL
won't play Sunday. And that's the downside to you know,
if you do Thursday night football and you do Monday
(11:24):
night football, So you know, Monday night Tua and Matt
Stafford are playing, and Thursday night it's Lamar Jackson and
Joe Burrow. So four of probably the twelve best quarterbacks
in the league are not playing Sunday. You know, So
you know, I can only take so much. Will Levis, Sorry,
it's that's the only knock to me on these Thursday
night football games. Seven years ago, these games six years ago,
(11:45):
the games were awful. I mean it was like you
felt like you were getting Jacksonville and Steeters were wearing
bumblebee uniforms. Now they you know, they're putting up an
almost every Thursday night football game this year. I think
it's the best Thursday night schedule. You've got a star
quarterback tonight you had two and and if you didn't
enjoy that, I don't you know. I like defense occasionally,
but if you didn't enjoy that, like it's not your
(12:06):
it's not your sport, that was just great. Great. Also
had Cincinnati plus six. Didn't know if I was going
to win that at one point. But I don't think
less of Baltimore because it's close. These division rival games.
You get four, five six points. If you have a
capable quarterback in a division rivalry game, take the points.
(12:26):
Joe Burrow is one of the I think he's five
and zero this year as a as an underdog against
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Burrow as a three point or more underdog as an
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Speaker 2 (14:04):
All right, John Middlecoff, It's time for our hour plus
on a Sunday. He is the former NFL scout for
the Philadelphia Eagles Three and Out podcast. Let's start with
a team you're near and dear to the Philadelphia Eagles.
So they did it on the ground, in the air.
They beat the Jags twenty eight to twenty three, although
Jacksonville with a massive late game comeback, Trevor Lawrence one
(14:27):
got a little loose Onnomy through a pick in the
end zone. You know, my takeaway on this is, I'll
go back to saying this, Jalen's not making the mistakes
and Barkley, Saquon Barkley's absolutely With Christian McCaffrey not playing yet,
Barkley's the best running back in the league. And I
think what Jalen hurts as they win today, My take
is they've gotten him out of the position where I
(14:48):
don't feel like he's ad libbing or out of control
like I thought Jordan loved today for the Packers was
out of control multiple times. I kind of think Philadelphia's
figured out kind of the way to use Allen. What
do you see?
Speaker 1 (15:02):
Well, I think Saquan's definitely changed their team. I mean
he's been him and Derrick Henry you talk about additions
this offseason, those two guys. I mean, Dereck Henry was
probably a Hall of Fame player before this. Now he
cemented himself. I mean, there's no one's ever questioned Saquan's talent.
I mean, what would Penn State do to have that
guy right now on their team? I mean, they did
have an offensive weapon, but to me, I mean, the
(15:22):
only reason that game was close was Sirianni and Kellen.
I'm not quite sure what was going on there with
some of the play calling. Yeah, they instead of kicking
a field goal, I didn't get that, decided not to
do the tush push and they roll him out and
he's got nowhere to go. Like right now, their offense,
I mean AJ Brown, which is a pretty big deal.
Not maybe in this game, but I guess they play
the Cowboys next week, so not in that game either,
(15:43):
but in two weeks against Washington.
Speaker 4 (15:45):
His presence for them to beat really good teams as
a must have.
Speaker 1 (15:48):
But when you're playing a team like today, DeVante Smith
what a draft pick. I mean, I thought, wait, this
guy's gonna be one hundred and seventy five pounds.
Speaker 2 (15:55):
I don't think he would last in this league.
Speaker 1 (15:58):
How about his one handed touchdown? Oh my god, so
you ad Saquon to him? I mean the guy that
had the game winning interception to Kobe Dean. I mean,
they have a lot of young defensive players. The last
couple of weeks, Nolan Smith has been all over the
quarterback like I trust Vic Fangio. To me, it just
gets down to Sirianni who if they had lost today,
(16:19):
Colin to Doug Peterson and the Jags who they had fired,
do you know, I mean Embiid would have been let
off the hook because it would have been a Siria
You cannot lose that game. And it got weird obviously
the freak Saquon fumble, But that's a little too close
for comfort given how well their top guys were playing.
Speaker 2 (16:37):
Oh yeah, I mean Barkley was great. Jalen went like
eighteen to twenty four, two hundred and thirty yards. No,
you know, no interceptions there. The receivers that were on
the field were excellent. They actually, I mean they they
had four hundred and fifty plus yards of offense six
point five yards per play. They were great on third down.
They dominate time of possession, and you look up and
you're like, you're at home and it's twenty eight twenty three.
Speaker 4 (17:00):
It's they were up twenty two. Nothing right.
Speaker 1 (17:02):
It looked like they were gonna blow him out forty
to ten or something.
Speaker 4 (17:05):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (17:05):
I just feel like I kind of feel like this
is the rare instance. And I felt this a couple
of years ago with Detroit. But I've come to terms
with Ben Johnson, the coordinator for the Lions. I didn't trust.
I really didn't trust Dan Campbell.
Speaker 4 (17:23):
I do now.
Speaker 2 (17:24):
I think he has grown. I think he's a little
less emotional now. I also think he realizes he's no
longer hunting, he's being hunted. They're the favorite. I think
he I think like today they got a lead, they
got real smart, they got real conservative. It was really
really smart Lions football. I feel like Siriani's like Dan
(17:45):
Campbell a couple of years ago. He's still trying to
prove himself. I want to show you guys how smart
I am. And then when you make mistakes like yelling
at the crowd and get your hands slapped by the owners,
then you kind of double down on I want to
show how smart I am. And there I just think
with Dan Campbell I've seen growth. I do think he's
a better, more mature coach today. And with Siriani, I
(18:06):
think they're gonna get to the playoffs, and I think
they're gonna have all these weapons and outplay people, and
I think they're gonna lose to a really smart, efficient team.
Atlanta beats the Cowboys twenty seven to twenty one. So
if you didn't watch this game, I could sum it
up with the multiple fall starts, the nine penalties for Dallas,
too many men on the field, and a fourth down.
(18:28):
Atlanta basically got out rushed, out passed. But Dallas was
so bad on fourth down, so many pedalties, so inefficient,
and Kirk Cousins just go out, goes out nineteen and
twenty four, doesn't make any big mistakes. Like Atlanta's not
physically impressive, but Atlanta's really efficient because they brought Kirk
(18:49):
Cousins in, who just doesn't make a lot of mistakes.
He gets you in and out of plays. When I
watched Dallas today, Mike McCary, Mike McCarthy's frustration with you.
I mean, when you have Dak Prescott, they're a veteran team,
you can't have false starts, illegal motions like it feels
like to me, that is so much on the quarterback.
Now he left and Cooper Rush came in. But I
(19:12):
you know, I had said before the year, this was
one of my I guess I'm actually wrong on this.
I said Dallas won't make the playoffs. It'll be Philadelphia
and Washington in that division. It will begin a slight regression. John.
They may be a bottom four team in the league.
And I'm dead serious. They're they're they're better than the
Raiders because of dak uh Hell and Cooper Rush. I
(19:33):
think they're better than Carolina, probably better than New Orleans
now they weren't in Week two. Dallas is a bad
football team without a lot of good players.
Speaker 1 (19:44):
Yeah. I thought coming into this week we were gonna learn, like,
are they just going to end up sucking all season
and being a five or six win team or they
gonna have a little heart and battle and you know,
at the end of the year be eight to nine.
But if shown some metal throughout the year, I think
they're headed toward five or six wins now. Yeah, and
today didn't it Simbal Eyes before the game even kicked off,
they less they left Zeke back at home Yeah, all
(20:05):
I had heard from Cowboys people is listen, we know
he doesn't have as much, but the leadership, yeah, the camaraderie,
him and Dak are close. And then these stories about
he never shows up on time, he's disgruntled.
Speaker 4 (20:15):
It's like, well, then Whysey on the team?
Speaker 1 (20:18):
And is that a little bit I'm not putting this
all on Dak, but isn't that Dak's one of his
best friends? Like, so what do we got going on there?
And then as the game goes on today it was
a reflection of they don't have that much talent. Oh
how often today Jesus even on like just random innocuous
plays Bijon in space out in the flat and three
guys would whiff and he'd get eight yards. That should
(20:40):
have been one.
Speaker 2 (20:41):
Listen, John, on a fourth and one, they have so
little talent in the backfield. On a fourth and one,
they had to use deception on a quick on a
like a jet sweep to CD lamb. Now, yeah, it
worked about twenty minutes later, same play. But on a
fourth and one with a very quarterback Zach Martin, one
(21:01):
of the great guards ever, they had to get clever
and tricky. They have no run game. One of the
easiest predictions anybody could have made going into this season,
if Dallas would have the worst running back room in
the league. I mean, we watched Zeke in New England.
He can't he's done, it's over. They made no moves,
they they it's it's remarkable. Now, I'm not saying Derek
(21:22):
Henry would be as good as we've talked about in Dallas.
As Baltimore, you start looking at it. I've said before
the season, if Ceedee Lamb twisted an ankle, this is
the worst offense in the league. I mean, it's it's
it's I watched them today and I'm like, they it
was just all a cotton candy yards. I mean, Atlanta
was so much smarter, more efficient, good on third down.
Speaker 4 (21:46):
I was.
Speaker 1 (21:46):
I was playing golf the other day with a diehard
cowboy fan. This guy's been to countless games over the
last thirty years, and I asked him, do you think
Dak Prescott's better than Tony Romo? And you were always
one of Tony's biggest defenders. Yeah, And he's said, you know,
I would have told you four or five years ago, yes,
but at this point in time, you can't watch these
games up until Tony's back went.
Speaker 4 (22:06):
He was a more dynamic absolutely, absolutely, and in.
Speaker 1 (22:10):
Twenty one, twenty two, and even last year, those teams
were so good. I mean in twenty one and twenty
two the Cowboys were really good.
Speaker 4 (22:19):
I mean they had a.
Speaker 1 (22:19):
Home playoff game, they were toe to toe with the
Niners in the second round, and they're I mean, Dak
didn't just have one bad play, like he.
Speaker 4 (22:26):
Was atrocious through most of those games.
Speaker 1 (22:28):
So I think, listen, this is not his fault, you know,
in terms of the pie chart one if they go
six or seven or maybe five wins, but he has
kind of crumbled like he has not been an elevator,
talk about trailers and tractors, clear where he falls. And honestly,
today was just an embarrassing day for the organization. Yeah,
(22:49):
I mean I think Mike's hands were on it, Jerry's
hands were on it. Because the Zeke thing to me
symbolizes I thought that moment. I thought the Bears benching
the guy for like two series like this is we're
not little league or high school, We're not teaching life lessons.
Speaker 4 (23:03):
You either leave him at home, yeah.
Speaker 1 (23:04):
And make him in active to show like this will
never be tolerated, or you just start him like this
is a business. You know, we're trying to win or lose.
Speaker 4 (23:11):
I got nope.
Speaker 1 (23:12):
I would have made him inactive to show everyone just
like the Cowboys did. Zeke, you're not showing up. But
there's no middle ground. This isn't high school football where
it's like you're gonna sit out the first series or
two like that.
Speaker 4 (23:23):
That to me is so dumb.
Speaker 1 (23:25):
I mean, that's that's embarrassing at the highest level. It's
just that's why you know, certain teams lose, and obviously
the same teams consistently win over and over.
Speaker 2 (23:35):
A game today that I thought was important and symbolic,
Arizona crushes the Bears twenty nine to nine. Kyler Murray
barely had to throw. There was a lot of I mean,
they led twenty nine, twenty one to nine and a half.
I think the bigger story is Caleb Williams was ineffective.
(23:55):
The offensive line was overwhelmed. The offensive line. I've talked
about this so many times, John, defensive coaches and offensive
lines are a problem. The Bears. Klob's been out played
badly by Kyler Murray and Jaden Daniels. The last two weeks,
he's dancing around in the back getting sacked by Arizona
(24:18):
offensive lines gotten worse. And I watched today there was
a safety on the Bears at one point as they
lost twenty nine to nine. There wasn't a There wasn't
once we got to the second quarter. There wasn't a
minute I thought Chicago could win. I think Caleb is
clearly Even though bow Knicks got rolled today, Baltimore at
(24:41):
homes much better. That was one of the easiest bets
of the year. Taking the Ravens minus eight to nine,
bow Knicks looks like he's got it to earned control.
I mean there's I think he really looks like for
the personnel they have, obviously Jade.
Speaker 4 (24:53):
He actually didn't play terribly. No, no, no, he wasn't.
Speaker 2 (24:56):
He just I mean, they don't have seven guys who
would start for the Ravens. They have Patrick Certan, maybe
a safety.
Speaker 4 (25:01):
That's about it.
Speaker 2 (25:03):
But when I look at Caleb right now, they average
three point four yards of play. It is screaming to
get rid of Matti Eberflus. I mean, I just a
whole game, I'm like this, it just doesn't work. He
doesn't have the right coordinator. It's a mess in Chicago.
Speaker 1 (25:17):
Now, Well, if I had told you by the middle
of the season that if the Bears called up the
Washington Commanders and said before the season and said, would
you trade Jaden Daniels straight up for Caleb Williams, and
the Commanders would laugh at them and hang up the phone,
you would have said the Bears have serious issues. Because
two things can be true. Today was an embarrassing day
(25:38):
for Eberflus, but so was last week, and so was
this offseason when it was pretty clear you're putting this
guy into a lame duck situation. This is not a
McCarthy that at least listen. I know he's under his
last year, but he has a long resume of success,
and he coaches the quarterback who you're going to pay
two hundred million dollars to.
Speaker 4 (25:56):
This is a head coach, a he's a good defensive coach, never.
Speaker 1 (25:58):
Won anything, and you have no faith that he's going
to do it, and now you have to fire him
a year in.
Speaker 4 (26:04):
But I think the bigger picture you see it with
Trevor Lawrence.
Speaker 1 (26:07):
I mean, they brought in Doug and this is just
not going well for him relative to hype. These things
can snowball and get out of hand fast, and you invested,
Actually you didn't because you made the trade, but you
got this player. You chose him over these other players,
specifically Jayden, who again long way to go. I mean
ideally they both have fifteen year careers. Jayden Daniels is
(26:29):
currently one of the best players in the NFL, no
question like he's one of the best players in the NFL.
Speaker 2 (26:33):
It looks totally under control.
Speaker 1 (26:36):
And Caleb looks like a mid round pick forced to
start because a quarterback got injured in the preseason.
Speaker 4 (26:43):
He makes some plays, but he misses a lot of
stuff that Listen, we saw.
Speaker 1 (26:47):
Him making college and this gets back to people that
were questioning him. He can freelance and get a little
willy nilly, and that doesn't really work in the NFL,
and you see him just get peppered. He's not comfortable
in the pocket. The coaching staff's terrible. I do think
the Tyreek Stevenson benching was just a joke. And if
I'm Eberflus, I wouldn't want him in active. I'd want
(27:08):
to just start them. But if you're Ryan Poles, you're
not going anywhere. You want to show all these other
guys that, like the standards are high, they're in no
man's land, right, they really are, And I doubt they
would fire I mean, that's a fireable game. I don't
expect the Bears to fire him. But like these last
two weeks, I mean they were thoroughly outplayed the week
before too right, it was you know, I know, the
(27:29):
Hail Mary, but they were worked that game, like we know,
before they even get to the tough stretch of their season,
Like this ain't a playoff team like this team, I
mean Arizona, that to me is like a fringe wild
card team. Just beat the living piss out of them.
I just can't take the Bear seriously anymore.
Speaker 2 (27:43):
No, and this was supposed to be the two game
stretch Arizona and New England next where they had a
shot right to make up some before they go into Detroit, Minnesota,
San Francisco, Green Bay. You know, I think there's I've
almost said there's one or two in football that are undervalued,
and yet there are things we know are valuable. I
(28:05):
think a great offensive coordinator or great offensive coach, you're
better on third down, you're better on offensive line. You're
better at drafting offensive personnel. I mean, the Rams just
figure out ways to mix and match their offensive line.
They're in a wild one with the Seahawks today, but
they're still you know, ham an egg and in the
(28:25):
interior of the offensive line. These defensive coaches. Chicago's offensive
line last year felt like an ascending group. You had
your tackles a little soft in the middle. It is
a mess with Caleb Williams mobility, it's a mess today.
So I just think you get to a point where
(28:45):
you I don't think people understand the difference between a
really smart offensive coach and an average defensive coach. It
is a touchdown to ten point difference a game.
Speaker 1 (28:57):
I do think to that moment last week on the
Hail Mary was reflective of their head coach, right, because
let's take a couple of top defensive coaches, right Tomlin
John Harbaugh especial teams guy, but he also the dB guy.
You could never envision that play with that player happening,
taunting the crowd like that. That just would never happen
(29:19):
with the Ravens and Steelers in that moment. So to me,
that reflected let alone, like he's been pretty good on defense.
Today he loses his best defensive player. James Connor looked
like Walter.
Speaker 4 (29:29):
Payton against him.
Speaker 1 (29:30):
I mean it was like, you guys are that dependent
on one guy. And offensively, I always talk about like
defensive guys know nothing about offense, right, I mean, they
know how to stop offenses, but they don't know. They're
not calling the plays, they're not in their coaching.
Speaker 2 (29:44):
Brady Brady Brady made fun of Belichick not even understanding
the terminology of offense.
Speaker 4 (29:51):
Yeah, it's just it's so the Bears.
Speaker 1 (29:56):
Honestly, this goes back to what ten months ago, eleven
months ago, when they knew and they tried to have
their cake and eat it too and keep their fingers crossed.
And now they're gonna have to fire this guy, and
it sets the whole clock off when they could have
just started at scratch. Maybe Ben Johnson would have been interested,
Maybe they could have hired v Abel and just had
a fresh runway. Now you derail everything because one thing
(30:18):
you would say is like, well, eberflu is kind of
good on defense, so now you get a new guy.
Just it just you know, upsets the Apple card which
needed upsetting in January. I mean, and today was Today
was really bad because coming off that loss, I thought
two teams had huge bounce. Like to me, the Ravens
of last year blow the team out, and they did today.
Speaker 4 (30:39):
So it's like, okay, you know the.
Speaker 1 (30:41):
Browns game, weird Outliar Jamis got hot, throw that away.
Speaker 4 (30:44):
The Ravens are the real deal.
Speaker 1 (30:46):
And the Bears like, okay, if this is gonna be
a wildcard team, they come into Arizona.
Speaker 4 (30:49):
Even if it's tight, Arizona's not easy. You win the game.
Speaker 1 (30:52):
A lot of I live out here, I would imagine
that were half the stadium was Bears fans.
Speaker 4 (30:57):
Yeah, so it's a big deal for them. And they,
like you said, that game was over before it even started.
They got shellacked.
Speaker 2 (31:12):
All right. I am feeling good about my picks this week.
I've had a couple of weeks I like have. Also,
three of the last four weeks had good college bets.
By the way, we don't do those here. Chad Millman,
co host of the Favorites. All odds provided by DraftKings.
You don't get a freebie very often, but I feel
like I'm getting one this week. Tampa Bay Short Week,
(31:35):
all beat up against the Niners, team off of bye
in a bad mood. Christian McCaffrey getting back. I mean
all the things you'd want short week over time, other
team off of bye. This feels like the rare thank
you draft Kings. I'll make the deposit. I'll buy some
(31:56):
jet Skis tonight, Sharper square, totally sharp.
Speaker 5 (32:00):
The wise guys have loved this one. It was at
five and a half, got up to six, got up
to six and a half. Now it's settled in around six.
I will not be surprised if this gets up to
six and a half. What's interesting about this game is,
you know, we talk all the time about the pro
joe split, right, the professionals on one side, the amateurs
(32:23):
on another. Normally, what you get is the Joe's the
amateurs like the big fancy favorite. In this case, the
jos have liked the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who have actually
been winning amateurs a lot of bets this season, And
because they look so good in overtime against the Chiefs
(32:45):
and the Niners have struggled, the Joe's have been coming
in on the Bucks and the wise guys. For your point,
they like Christian McCaffrey coming back. They like the Niners
coming off a bye. They like having to fade the
Bucks traveling back home in a short week after overtime
to play a really physical and healthy San Francisco team.
(33:08):
And there's a couple of trends that are worth looking
at and a couple of matchups that are worth looking at.
Number One, the past decade, favorites on the road off
of a bye sixty percent against the spread. Favorites of
five and a half or more off a by on
the road seventy percent against the spread. What that tells
you is that when a team is good and they're
(33:30):
off the by and they go on the road in
their favorites, they tend to overperform. And then you've got
the matchup. Everyone loves this Bucks team, but they are
terrible against the run, and if Christian McCaffrey is back,
all of a sudden, you've got a much bigger advantage
against the weakest part of the Bucks defense. Whise guys
are with you, Simon, Simon, Whise guys are with you, Colin.
(33:51):
I was thinking about my bff Simon one hundred on
the Niners.
Speaker 2 (33:56):
Another game I like a lot is Arizona Cardinals, play now.
Usually a star quarterback with extra time to prepare would
put me in a good mood. But I think extra
time helps for excellent coaching staffs, you know, dynamic offenses
in their prime. The Jets have an interim defensive coach,
(34:18):
they're on their second play caller. There is no proof
that extra time means anything to this team. And Arizona
at home now getting a point. I think people, I
know what you're thinking it. People are getting really high
on Arizona. This team beat San Francisco and Santa Clara.
They got really good offensive players, and this is getting
(34:39):
to the point in the year when defensive players. I mean,
the Jets defense isn't that good. It's just not that good.
I'm gonna take Arizona plus one Sharper square, all.
Speaker 5 (34:50):
Right, Well it's square. And let's not use the Niners
win as a barometer of what this team is, right,
because the Niners in that game, they they didn't have
a kicker. They literally could not kick a field goal.
When they were in the red zone, they had to
keep running it. And one of those times, even though
they were ahead, there running back fumbled the ball and
(35:13):
it sent them the Cardinals towards a win in which
they had about a five percent chance of winning the game.
In that exact moment, the Cardinals have won three in
a row. They're in first place in the AFC West,
ahead of the Rams, ahead of the Seahawks, ahead of
the Niners. There is a lot of glow on this
team right now, and it is a team to its credit,
(35:35):
it has come back from double digit downs in a
couple of games, and then it destroyed a Bear's team,
which you and I both know like they were primed
to be destroyed. I know, I listened to your show.
I know how you feel about Ibra Flus, I know
the stat you've been drumming about him on the road.
I agree with you as a Bears fan, terrible coach.
(35:56):
That was the exact spot for the Cardinals to look dominant,
right the Jets with a mini bi getting healthier. No
pressure on Aaron Rodgers. I don't mean shoulders. I mean
the Cardinals cannot get any pressure. They are the worst
in the league. That is Taylor made for Aaron Rodgers
to bring this team back down to earth. The wise guys,
(36:19):
like the Jets. The line has moved. The Jets were
underdogs the Jets are now favorites.
Speaker 2 (36:24):
Okay, you're not getting the best of the number. I
like the Broncos seven and a half plus seven and
a half against the Chiefs. So Kansas City short week
over time. Kansas City is not a team that blows
people out. Denver, meanwhile, faced what teams do and they
realize it's a tsunami. Oh, let's go to Baltimore and
(36:44):
play an angry Ravens team. They hammered last year, the Niners,
the Lions like teams that were healthy at the time.
Miami going to Baltimore shouldn't even count. You should be
just like not any other place in the league, nobody.
No team humiliates more teams then Baltimore in a bad
mood at home. It doesn't matter San Francisco. I mean
(37:06):
McVeigh lost last year. I thought it was this best
coach game of the year. When they lost at Baltimore,
I thought that was when I bought the Rams. It's like, oh,
they didn't get crushed, Okay, so don't just wipe that away.
Denver's not a terrible team. Kansas City's not a great team.
Division rivals. One team's humiliated. One team on a short
(37:26):
weekend overtime. I thought it was a gift at nine.
I still like denverse seven and a half sharper square.
Speaker 5 (37:33):
It was a gift at nine, It was a gift
at nine and a half, at nine, at eight and
a half, at eight, seven and a half, that's where
you stop. Take it at seven and a half. Do
not take it at seven. Of course, the wise guys
are going to be on a huge and in this
case seven is huge division road underdog. Those ten to
(37:54):
two favor in terms of ROI playing the underdog the Chiefs.
When Patrick Mahomes is a favorite of three or more,
he has a losing record against the spread. They're not
the kind of team. And I know you've talked about
this as well. They are not a blow them out
team right now. Maybe they're going to get there with
DeAndre Hopkins, with Travis Kelce getting more out of the flow,
(38:17):
and them understanding who they are offensively now, but they
are not there yet. And in this fourteen game win streak,
they're beating teams by five or six points a game,
right so they are not the kind of team, and
especially in the second half, they slow it down. They
get leads in the first half and then they slow
it down in the second half. The Broncos have a
great defense, and you can say everything you just said
(38:38):
about the Ravens, all the wise guys believe as well.
They went on the road, they got throttled. The first
play of the game, bo Nix throws an interception off
of rever receiver's hands, and everything sort of went wrong
for them the rest of the day. But this is
a team that continues to grind and play to the
whistle and play to the end of the game. I
know there's a cliches, but in this case they're true
(39:00):
because Bonnicks is being treated as if he's a third
or fourth year quarterback, not a first year quarterback. So
the expectation is that the Broncos will stay in this
game and keep the back door open, and the Chiefs
will allow them to keep the back door open. Also,
one thing I would say past twenty years, teams that
are off of a twenty plus blowout loss, which the
(39:21):
Broncos are fifty against spread, So.
Speaker 2 (39:25):
There are times when I just don't think teams are
going to play perfect. I'm getting three and a half
Texans at home against the Lions, and Detroit has this
is not a game that you have circled as a
Lions fan. You have big games coming up against, you know,
in division teams. This is kind of one of those
(39:45):
weird Hey, we got to go on the road and
play the Texans. For the Texans, they look at Detroit
and think, she's this is like playing the Chiefs. This
is we got to get right three and a half.
I think you come out of a divisional game with
green Bay really are feeling it. I think Detroit's better,
but the better team doesn't know us win. Sometimes it's
the home team where you feel like there's real urgency
(40:08):
to make a statement. I like the Texans plus three
and a half here Sharper square.
Speaker 5 (40:14):
Yeah, the numbers move from four and a half to
three and a half, and I think that the wise
guys are with you here. But three will be the
tipping point. If it gets to three, the wise guys
will come in on the Lions. And we've talked about this.
The beauty of the Lions is that their strength is
in their offensive line and for lack of a better term,
(40:38):
physical travels in football right, running backs can have a
bad game depending on the surface. Quarterbacks can play better
outdoors than indoors offensive lines. All you're doing is lining
up across the guy in front of you and beating
him up, and the Lions do that better than any
(40:59):
offensive line in the league. I think that is why
you know last week, all the professional betters were all
over the Packers against the Lions. They thought the Lions
are going to be outside Jared Goff has a bulky ankle.
This is the spot where you're going to fade a
team that everybody had been making money on, even as
big favorites, because they thought. We thought we'd see the
(41:20):
letdown spot in a really physical game. Didn't happen like
the physical travel. So I do worry about the Texans
being able to out physical the Lions, especially. We don't
know what's happening with Will Anderson. And in that Jets
game against the Texans, when Will Anderson went out, the
(41:43):
Texans were dominating. As soon as he's out, the Jets
took that game over. So it is it's the right side.
The wise guys are playing it. It's not my favorite, though.
Speaker 2 (41:54):
Here's a game where I understand the hook and so
people won't bet this side. But there are teams that
I think get healthy or get right, and the market's
not quite adjusted. I think the Chargers are going to
be a problem this point forward. When you look at
that receiving cor last week and all of a sudden
(42:16):
you're like, oh, it's not a huge weakness now, it's
actually okay. With the development of Quinton Johnston, Laddin, McConkey, Palmer, Disley, Hearst, JK. Dobbins,
you're like, oh shit, they're kind of right now. I
think they're going to start reeling off some kind of
(42:37):
punishing dominant wins Herbert now is healthy. I think the Chargers,
even at seven and a half, are a little undervalued,
I really do. I know it's not sharp. I would
take the Chargers comfortably over the Titans for the record.
When we've seen the Titans play good teams, it's fools
(42:58):
gold like they can hang bad teams. I've seen them
overwhelmed against well coached teams. I know it's square. Chargers
seven and a half, what say you.
Speaker 5 (43:09):
Yeah, it's totally square. The only side to take here
is the Titans. Either don't bet it, or take the Titans.
I'm not betting this game. I'm a huge Chargers backer.
Last week, everybody was saying the Browns are cresting. You
gotta get the Browns right now. Jamis is back and
(43:30):
I looked at that game and we talked about this
on the Favorites several times because it made no sense
to me. The Chargers were two point favorites on the road,
and if you break down that handicap, Chargers should have
been two point favorites on the road. They have the
better quarterback who doesn't turn the ball over. They have
a really good physical offensive line. We just talked about
(43:52):
the Lions. I see the Chargers built in the same
mold as the Lions as we build the next twelve
twenty fourth threety six months with what Horriba was trying
to do there. I love this Chargers team. I think
seven and a half points is too high. There's too
much quirkiness that can come into play in these games
(44:12):
when the number is that high and there's a hook involved.
Speaker 2 (44:16):
Okay, here's a game. And I hate to do this
because I really really liked the Rams and their young
defense a lot. It was plus two and a half,
and I really liked Miami at two and a half.
Now it's down to one, so I think it won.
I would take the Rams, but there's a game every
(44:38):
week where I'm like, tell me what to bet. I really,
I think the Rams are so talented defensively. Defensively, they
have not missed on a draft pick, a defensive draft
pick in two years. One of their safeties is an
undrafted rookie from Tennessee the volunteers. Heiss four picks. The
other kid from Miami is a pick six kid. I
(45:00):
mean like they're hitting on everybody, verse the two Florida
State guys young, I mean everyone. They all Kobe Turner
from Wake Forest, they all are good. They're all better
than their draft spot. I want to take the Rams
so bad, but that numbers moving around, it tells me
the Sharps were on Miami, right.
Speaker 5 (45:21):
The wise guys have been all over Miami. And I'll
tell you know you and I but we did our
Sunday show at ESPN. We always had a pick where
we went against the wise guys and we called it
the executive decision, and you just nailed the game. That
is the executive decision for me. I love the Rams.
I feel like the Rams. I bet the Rams last
(45:42):
week as favorites against the Seahawks, a miracle cover. But
Matthew Stafford. There are quarterbacks in the NFL you think about, Okay,
it's the end of the game. I need this guy
to get me the cover, or I don't want to
be against this guy if I bet against him. Matthew Stafford,
(46:03):
Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, those are the people
that you don't want to be against. I don't want
to be against Matthew Stafford. Ever, if I can get
Matthew Stafford basically at pick at home when his team
was won three in a row. You mentioned verse Randon Fisk,
the other guy from Florida State. He had a great
(46:25):
game last week. And don't forget Sean McVay, who I
think is brilliant. Obviously, it's not like you know, I'm
revealing a secret. His offense as magical as it is,
as much as we talk about Cooper Cup and Poka
Nakua and going downfield, it's a motion offense that is
(46:46):
basically predicated on the running game. And Kyron Williams is
a brilliant running back, probably a top five all around
running back in the league right now. And that Miami
Dolphins defense is not very good against the run. So
I'm getting a physical team. The defense is up and coming.
I love that defense. They've been lights out playmaking. I'm
with you, I don't see it. I don't see why
(47:08):
the Wise guys are on the Dolphins. If you want
to exact decision this, I'm with you one hundred percent.
Speaker 2 (47:14):
Okay, you know I love the number four Bills minus
four at the Colts. You know, if this is a
division game, it's different. I do worry about this. Quarterbacks
off concussions. Tua was better in the second game. Remember
the first game was Arizona. We talked about this. Okay,
better in the second game. Joe Flacco first game pretty ugly.
(47:39):
Now it's the second game, so it tells me you're
not the people now look at Buffalo and they look
at the Colts and think Flacco's old and washed. No
old quarterback coming in second game. I love minus fours.
I take favorites. Something tells me the Colts is really
(47:59):
really one of the better sharp sides of the week.
Speaker 5 (48:01):
Sharper square, huge sharp side this week. It was at
four and a half for a hot minute, went to four.
A lot of three and a half's out there now.
The Wise guys have been piling in on the Colts.
Two different scenarios here, both of which the wise guys
like the Colts. For one, it's a by Low sell high.
(48:25):
The Bills are seven to two. They just came off
of a huge, high profile win sixty one yard field
goal Division rival. They basically have the AFC locked up
the first week in November, huge huge cell high situation.
The Colts, big deal Joe Flacco starting for Anthony Richardson.
(48:46):
That gives us a better chance to win. They go
into Minnesota in primetime, they can't even get past the
twenty yard line, right, they cannot score. So all of
a sudden, you've got to buy low. So that's one
scenario in which the wise guys feel like it's overinflated
because of what happened in national television for the Cults.
(49:06):
And then you got to look, the Colts have a
dominant run blocking unit that is to the detriment of
the Bills rush defense. So in a lot of different metrics,
whether it's yards per play, yards are expected points on
the rush, total rushes of ten plus yards, which is
(49:28):
sort of an explosive metric, the Cults are top five
the Bills are not very good defending against the run,
so there is an advantage there, and the Cults rush
defense has been getting much better. We saw that against
the Vikings with Grover Stewart and Brentson Buckner. So there
is an opportunity here against what is the strength of
the Bills defense or offense to stop them. So the
(49:50):
Wise Guys are huge, huge fans of the culture.
Speaker 2 (49:52):
And every week there's a game I miss it's usually
egregiously bad to watch. Chad Millman, co host of the
favor it's all odds provided by DraftKings. What's the game
I missed? It doesn't include Jacksonville.
Speaker 5 (50:06):
Well it doesn't this week. Normally it would, but you know,
with Mac Jones playing, I will say, like the line
jumped from about four to seven seven and a half.
I still don't think that's enough. That's how bad most
people think Mac Jones is. So I'm not even gonna
ask you to do anything with that game. I will say,
the Wise guys have been on the Giants against the
(50:27):
Panthers in the game in Munich. I won't ask you
to talk about that game. I'm a little surprised, like
you brought up all the games that are most interesting
to me.
Speaker 4 (50:38):
One game.
Speaker 5 (50:38):
There's two games we didn't discuss. One is a little
high profile. I'm surprised you to bring it up, which
is the Steelers in the Commoner.
Speaker 2 (50:44):
So every week there's a game I want to watch.
I just want to watch it. I think it's a
fascinating game. There's an argument to be made the Steelers
have the best defense in the league. They've really figured out,
by the way, how to use Russell Wilson, and like
Greg Cosell told me today, I said, it reminds me
a little of the Seattle Seahawks power run, defensive culture
(51:08):
one one, two, good weapons, a tough place to play
at home. He goes, But that's exactly what the video
tells you. It's a poor man Seahawks team. I kind
of like Pittsburgh here, right, getting points, Yes.
Speaker 5 (51:20):
You do. What's scary is you can't get to three anymore,
right because it was at three. When it got to three, guys,
they immediately bet the three and it went down to
two and a half. And it's just sort of sitting
at two and a half. I would still play the
two and a half. Two is a key number in
the NFL. Now with all the extra points being missed
(51:42):
or teams going for two more often, so I wouldn't
be afraid of the two and a half. But this
is really the best defense. You just noted that Jayden
Daniels has faced from two defensive ends who can really
rush the passer, and because Alex Highsmith was out for
most of October, their rush metrics are not as high
(52:04):
as they normally are. But he's been back and this
is really a stellar defense. It's also a Row rob
Mike tomlinst you got Mike Tomlin the.
Speaker 2 (52:13):
Best underdog coach. Burrow is the best underdog quarterback I believe,
and I believe Tomlin getting two and a half points
here against Washington's the best underdog coach.
Speaker 4 (52:24):
Colin.
Speaker 5 (52:25):
The numbers back you up. Mike Tomlin sixty percent against
spread as a dog on the road in his career.
He is the most profitable coach as an underdog against
the spread this generation in the history of data that
we have tracking all this stuff going back about twenty years.
The most profitable coach in this situation also twenty five
(52:48):
and five straight up against rookie QBS. Everyone is looking
for the moment to sell the Commanders because they've been
extraordinarily good. The Steelers off of with these two defensive
ends and Mike Tomlin as the coach. Might be the
time to do it, But I didn't give you the
gross game. Can I interest you in the New Orleans
(53:12):
Saints plus three and a half against the Atlanta Fountains?
Speaker 2 (53:17):
No, you can't at all.
Speaker 5 (53:19):
Yes, we are playing. We are playing the dead cat bounce.
We have a team that has a new coach that
got rid of the guy who, by all accounts, and
we've been hearing this for more than a year, they
hated Dennis.
Speaker 2 (53:34):
How many points.
Speaker 5 (53:35):
They've been out on Dennis Auten. They're getting three and
a half Saints. They were here. Here's the thing, the
Saints are getting three and a half. They were getting four.
It's down to three and a half. So you know,
the wise guys are on them because the public is
betting the Falcons. So we got a pro Joe split here.
This team played so badly last week. The most popular player,
Cam Jordan apologized on Twitter. And if you look at
(53:58):
the games Derek Carters started, Look, they've lost seven in
a row for those games with Derek Carr. One of
those games Kansas City. They lost twenty six to thirteen,
but it was closer than the score the other The
other three games they were by three points, two points
in one point, including one of these games against Atlanta.
So I know, like the receivers are out. They just
(54:18):
traded Latimore to Marshall Lattimore the cornerback to the Commanders.
But this is the spot to back the Saints. You
just got to hold your nose and do it. You
might not bet them again the rest of the year.
It's like we bet the Panthers when Andy Dalton came
in because you knew there'd be some kind of change.
(54:40):
Derek Carr second game back, new coach.
Speaker 4 (54:43):
This is it.
Speaker 5 (54:44):
There's the whole ball of wax So and this Atlanta
team had generally been mediocre. Like they're not blowing teams out,
they're getting really lucky. It's it's a situation where the
number is a little bit in f because the Falcons
have been doing so well and the public sentiment on
the Saints is so low, so the wise guys are
(55:06):
on the Saints.
Speaker 2 (55:07):
And the Marcus Lattimore trade, he wasn't playing anyway, so
it's not like they're pulling out a guy who's used
like pro bowl level corner. He's been struggling. He's got
a hamstring issue. Yeah, so much stuff.
Speaker 1 (55:20):
Ride with it.
Speaker 4 (55:21):
Do it? Do it? Come on.
Speaker 5 (55:26):
The volume.
Speaker 2 (55:28):
Thanks so much for listening. If you've enjoyed the podcast,
take a moment rate and review
Host
Colin Cowherd
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