Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hello, and welcome to Jimmy's Three Things. Thank you very
much for joining today. My name is Jimmy. There's three
things I want to talk about in the world of
Major League Baseball. One a new defensive metric I just
made up, and you guys will let me know if
it's good or bad, interesting or not interesting? But I
made it up. How's your team rank in the defensive metric?
I just made up. Two scoring tendencies, best and worst beginnings,
(00:23):
comeback innings, all that good stuff. Three highest, lowest, most inside,
most outside pitch that's been hit for a hit this season.
If you enjoy the show, please subscribe, leave a comment
like it. All that stuff does really help. And remember
Jimmy's Three Things is a production of Dan Patrick Productions,
John Boy Media, and Workhouse Media. Catch my breath and
(00:46):
then we will begin one, two, three, these things coming
three three things very dull indeed, okay. Thing Number one
a new defensive stat I made up. I'm calling it
right spot, Yeah, right spot, right spot metric. All right.
(01:06):
I've been kind of interested in defensive shifts recently because
when I went to Fenway and saw the Red Sox
play and the Yankees play, the game of that. I
think I even might have talked about this on here
or I talked about somewhere. I talk a lot of places.
I thought the Red Sox had a lot of spots
where their infield just called line drives right at them
or hot shots, and the Yankees were the opposite. And
(01:28):
I was like, damn, I think I think the Red
Sox shifting was better than the Yankees. I don't think
the Yankees are this great at that. And I wanted
to see if I could develop a system to check
in on this and then compare it to all the
other defensive metrics we had. So what I did was
and stay with me, and I should let you guys know,
I don't think I'm smart. I don't think I'm a genius.
(01:50):
I'm not gonna stand by at everything I say, no
matter what. Sometimes I do these and people that are
smart and love baseball and baseball stats will get like angry,
and they were you doing an account for this? Oh,
this stat is flawed because of this. Okay, great help
add to the conversation. But I just like messing around
with stats and finding out what I find out. So
(02:11):
let that be the energy and vibe of this but
come on, we're all nerds here. Let's nerd out act
like we're smarter than we are. First thing I did,
I went and I found all the ground balls that
were hit ninety five miles per hour or harder. So
(02:31):
ground balls hit hard hot shots, bam. You know you're
not gonna have time to really track them down. And
maybe I could up that, maybe not, I don't know.
That's what I did. Ninety five mile prior exit velow
ground balls. How many has your team let up? And
then how many have you converted to ads outs? So
within the metric, it's it's a little bit fielding percentage.
(02:53):
How many of you converted to outs? Right? Then I
took line drives in between five degree and fifteen degrees
launch angle, and I did go and watch a ton
at all of the degrees. And if it's two or
or three, there was a bunch that bounced. If it
was seventeen sixteen, it was you know, uncatchable. And there
(03:15):
will always be some that are uncatchable, some that bounce.
But I did. The best landing spot for me was
in between five degrees of launch and fifteen degrees of launch.
Most of those are around head high or under and
can be caught by an infield if he's standing right there.
So I wanted to see, not skill based, just are
you standing in the right spot? How often has the
(03:38):
spot that you're standing resulted in an out? Because some
there's some stats out there that grade like when they're
in a defensive shift they've recorded this many outs and say, well,
the times they choose not to shift, they should also
get credit if they recorded out there because they know
that this is a batter and this is a pitch,
and this is a situation where we should just play
(03:59):
straight up. So I don't like when they do that.
So this is all balls hit, all right? And then
I combined the two, so it's just kind of hot shots,
fast ground balls or line drive outs. And I combined
the two and combined you know how many times the
fielding percentage on those hits basically from infielders. So how
(04:20):
many times did an infielder record an out on balls
hit that way? Does that make sense? So I know
I'm talking fast, but it's basically a hot shot on
the ground or a liner that you can catch if
you're standing in the right spot. And it's a team stat,
not an individual stat. How many times did that team
recording out. So the team that has had the most
(04:42):
ground balls over ninety five miles per hours San Francisco
Giants five hundred and thirty six, and the least Minnesota
Twins three sixty six. So that's just pitching staff tendencies
more than anything else. The best team at converting hot
shot ground balls to outs, it's the Texas Rangers sixty
four zero point fifty five percent of the time they're
(05:05):
converting ninety five mile prior ground balls into outs. And
the Detroit Tigers are number two, and the Saint Louis
Cardinals number three, and the Colordado Rockies number four, and
the Guardians are number five. That's your top five there.
Now your bottom five are the Boston Red Sox. They're
not in the right spot on grounders that much, So
(05:28):
maybe I was wrong. Maybe the Chicago White Sox they're
not in the right spot that often. They're ranked twenty seventh.
All these teams are fifty eight percent, and then the
San Diego Padres are fifty six percent. They're thirtieth, and
I think they got a good defense. But again, this
isn't This isn't a defensive skill metric. Obviously you have
(05:48):
to convert the play. Even if you're in the right spot,
you still need to catch the liner, catch the ground ball,
complete the play. I think this is much more the
analytics department for the team, are they or the you know,
the players intuition if they're moving on their own. So
that's the top five in the bottom five. Now I'm
gonna expand it out and get line drives in here.
(06:11):
The team with the best percentage the Philadelphia Phillies, and
it's a it's quite the jump, you know. So thirty
three zero point sixty four percent of line drives hit
between five and fifteen degrees of launch. They convert for
the out, they catch or knock down and throw. I
guess the next team is twenty seven, then twenty seven,
(06:34):
then twenty six, then five teams, six teams have twenty five.
So that jump from second place twenty seven to first
thirty three is quite the leap for the Phillies. They're
catching liners. And something I wanted to look at was
is this just a hype? Base stat Bryce's six '
three stots, six ' three, sosis six flat and turner
(06:58):
six to two. So they just be tall. Let's go
check out that theory against Boston, who's in second place.
Dom Smith is six foot Valdez five eight, devers six
foot Rafaela five nine. So the height theory is come
and gun, it's out the window. We're over it, We're
done with it boring anyway. The top teams Philly, Boston, Seattle, Dodgers,
(07:25):
and then Atlanta by a tiny bit over Texas. So
that's your top five. Converting hot shot line drives into outs.
Being in the right spot for a line drive, you
don't got time, you know, it's got to be right
at you. Your bottom five will be the Cardinals, Oakland, Anaheim, Angels, Rockies,
(07:47):
and Tampa Bay. Tampa's not good. They're thirtieth. So then
what I did is I combine the two and this
is where you might lose. I might lose people like
you can't do that. I have no idea, you know,
I'm just doing whatever I want to do. I'm just
a guy with a Google sheet and a bunch of
stats and making up whatever I want to do and
playing around. That's it's baseball, and that's how I like
(08:09):
consuming it, which is not how majority of people like
consuming it. They just most people just watch. They don't
do this shit, this weird shit, like I'm a scientist
and I'm not really smart. So the worst team total
at line drives and hot shot grounders is the San
Diego Padres. They're ranked thirtieth at this Now I think
(08:32):
the Padres and feels good. Obviously a rise as a
butcher Manny just talked to Ryan conan up said he had,
you know, half the years like battling. Something wasn't every
day he struggled, so maybe that hurt him. But they're thirtieth.
Then Tampa Bay's twenty ninth, which is very interesting for
the next part of this. But Tampa Bay is not
good at being in the right spot. Second worst. Oakland
(08:55):
not good at being in the right spot. The Angels
not good at being in the right spot. The Whites
not good at being in the right spot. The best
teams at being in the right spot overall on grounders
endline drives are Texas Rangers. They're number one, Seattle Mariners
number two, they're smart over there. The Phillies their third
(09:18):
Giants are fourth, and the New York Mets or fifth.
How about that? Okay, So then I was very interested
to go find which teams shift the most and compare
it to these numbers that I have here. So that's
exactly what I did. And I used inside edge because like,
(09:44):
what is a shift? What's not a shift? I'm not
going to go watch all of the shifts, right, I'm
not gonna do that. So I went inside edge has
this metric of defensive shifts used percentage. And guess who
shifts the most in all of base The Tampa bay Rays. Surprise, surprise,
they shift eighty two point four percent of the time,
(10:07):
which ranks them number one shifters, and it ranks them
nineteenth in hard hit ground balls, thirtieth in line drives,
for an overall right spot ranking of twenty ninth. You're
not shifting smartly, Tampa. You guys are not in the
right spot. You know. Line drives. That's when a guy
(10:28):
gets a hold of one, he hits it to probably
where his tendency says, hit it. What are you doing
over there? I don't know what's going on, but Tampa
fens does that seem Does that correlate with what you've
been watching? Toronto? Is they shift the second most? And
I knew that because the Yankees playing the Al East
and when when you could shift. They did so many
(10:50):
four outfielders Toronto and they did all this stuff, so
they do like shifting. It hasn't really helped them either.
They're not top of the pack as far as right
spot rankings. My metric that I made up that might
hold water might not. The Dodgers they shift the third most.
It's helping them online drives, it's helping them on line drives,
they're fourth and Boston. This work gets interesting because Boston
(11:14):
shifts the fourth most sixty nine percent of the time,
and their second in line drive ranking, which is what
I saw when the Yankees went up there and I
was telling Jacob, was like, dude, they caught every hot
chat line drive. It was right at them. It blew
me away. So they're shifting well on line drives, not
well on ground balls, which is I think ground balls
can be funkier because you can hit a ball ninety
(11:34):
five miles per hour, but you know you're you're blocking
an outside pitch instead of pulling it, like you're not
getting it to your tendency, So you could shift wrong
for that. Like I'd be interested to find a team
that's really bad at both or a team that's really
good at both. Texas is pretty good at both, but
most teams are. If they're good at line drives, they're
not great at ground balls because of what I just said,
(11:56):
Like Philly is first line drives, but twenty ninth in
ground balls. I think that goes to what I'm saying
that line drives is where a guy's gonna hit it
to his tendency, So that's a better gauge of like
are you shifting to when a guy gets it. Maybe
I should have uped the ground ball to like one
hundred eggsit below, but I think that limits some I
don't know what it could should have. So anyway, the
(12:18):
team that shifts the least is uh should be a
surprise to no one the Colorado Rockies because everything we've
heard is they don't even have an analytic spartan, just
like two guys, and that helps them on ground balls
because they're like equidistant away and they can go run
and move and get them. But they're terrible on line drives,
which I think makes sense to me, like you're shifting
(12:40):
for line drives and they're awful at that. But then
the Phillies they also don't shift a lot at all,
but their first in line drives twenty ninth, and ground
balls third overall. So I don't know. And then what
I did just to compare this for a bunch of
other stuff is I got all the other defensive metrics
you have, which I I don't know how much I
(13:00):
even care about any of these, but some people like these.
I don't really. I like outs above average for infielders.
I don't love the rest, especially on a team level.
It's really hard because the shortstop can like like the Yankees.
Team stats are good because Volpe just raises them all,
but everyone else is bad. But anyway, what I found
interesting was if I go to the right spot ranking
and I find the best team at it, which is
(13:21):
the Texas Rangers, They're first in ground ball rank six,
in line drive first overall. They grate out the best
in all the analytics too. They're first in some Baseball
Savant outs above average, they're first in Fangrafts DRS, they're
third in UZR, they're first in fan Grafts outs above average,
and they're first in fielding run value from fangrafts. So
(13:44):
the Texas Rangers infield just on my fake metric I
just created, and all the other metrics that are fake
that those guys just created. But we you know, they're
smarter than me, so we like them. They're good and
they shift right in the middle like they're sixteenth, so's
it's half. It's half being in the right spot or
a lot being the right spot, but also can go
get it, So put him in the right spot, then
they go get it. That's what would be my conclusion.
(14:05):
The interesting team is Boston because Boston shifts a ton.
They grade out horribly in all of the Baseball Savant
FanGraph metrics. They are thirtieth, twenty seventh, twenty sixth thirtieth,
and three of them twenty six, twenty seventh. But they're
good online drive. So I think that they're shifting so
(14:28):
much because their infield isn't talented. When Joe Madden went
from the Rays to the Cubs, he stopped doing a
giant shift. They asked him, he said, well, I have
a I have more skill. I don't need to do
that anymore. So they are making up for bad defense
according to all the other stats by good shifting. But
then you look at the Rays, and the Rays are
(14:49):
also great. They grade out horribly in all the other
defensive categories out some of average savan, outs of average
fangrafts use ther drs. All of them. They grade out
in the in the mid twenties. They so they shift
a ton because they're making up for not a lot
of skill, and they're shifting awfully. They are never in
the right spot. The rays are I don't know. I
(15:12):
thought you guys are supposed to be geniuses. You're not
doing good job according to the metric I made up.
I didn't make it up to out you or anything.
It just happened to be that way. So that's it.
That's everything I looked at. Okay, that's the first I mean,
if you want to take a screenshot of this, you can.
You can maybe find more. Maybe you guys can find
something I haven't seen yet. But that was my right
(15:33):
spot ranking. Okay, there you have it. If I do
it again, maybe I up the ground ball to like
one hundred eggs of a little but I don't even
know how much that changes things. Anyway, I gotta keep
this thing moving, Okay. Next up, I want to look
at scoring tendencies. So remarkable by Inside Edge is an
awesome database of stats. I love it. I very much
enjoy getting lost in this forever. And they have scoring tendencies.
(15:57):
And for hitting, I'm gonna look at hitting first three
different innings percentage, answer back innings percentage, big innings percentage
scored first percentage. So let me look at this. The
Phillies have scored in sixty nine percent of their road
games this season. That's the highest, and m I'll be okay,
I want ants. The Twins have answered back in thirty
eight percent of innings after opponent scores. So I love
(16:19):
answer back innings right because on the flip side, you
score some runs and then you want your pitcher to
go out there and get a shut down inning. Well,
this is an answer back inning. And we look at
the leaderboard. Here the best teams offensively at answering back
after they give up runs. Twins, Yankees, Orioles, Red Sox
(16:40):
American League, top four, American League East three of the
top four. What of it, Dodgers are number five, they're
thirty three percent. We have the bottom. Marlins are terrible
at this. Tigers are bad, Rangers are bad, White Socks
are bad. Mariners are the worst of the playoff hopeful
teams at this. Their bottom and you love a good
(17:03):
answer back inning, right, I want to see three different innings.
They score in three different innings. White Sox are the
worst at this scored three different innings percentage this season,
So the best that's scoring in three different innings over
the course of a game. Red Sox, Twins, Yankees, Orioles
are all in the top five. Again, good offenses, way
(17:24):
to go. Dodgers switched to the fourth and Orioles are
the fifth. So same five teams make up the top five,
which makes sense. If you can score in multiple innings,
you're gonna get the answer back inning. The worst teams.
I wonder it's the same five, It is just a
different order. Tigers, Rangers, Marlin's, Mariners, White Sox so those
are kind of the same stat I guess let's look
at big innings. Okay, this is what made the Diamondbacks
(17:48):
and the Rangers so good in the postseason last year
is when they scored, especially the Rangers, when they scored
in an inning. They scored three runs that inning, like
they got you, and they go at you big. They
ain't just scrape one and then one and then one.
So I think this is pretty big. You know, some
people call it cluster innings. There's that's another stat. So
(18:09):
big innings, what do you know, White Socks are the lowest.
They're the worst at scoring big innings. All right, we
got some NL on the board. We got a bunch
of new teams on the board. Actually, the Brewers their
first seven point two percent big innings, Atlanta Braves are
tied for first. Same and there you go. You got
(18:31):
the Rangers. So the Rangers were just bottom on answer
back innings their bottom five and multiple innings their bottom five,
but their third on big innings where they score three
or more runs in an inning, and that they were
last year, so that makes sense. Their offense gets rolling. Orioles,
I think we're also really good at this last year,
but got got in the postseason. They're tied for fourth
(18:51):
with the Astros. And then the worst teams you have
the White Sox, the A's, the Angels, the Marlins, and
then the Cardinals are not a good beginning team. One
more scoring tendency scored first, all right, The Angels have
the lowest scored first percentage this year. Then the Nationals,
(19:12):
the Rockies, the A's, the Marlins, bad teams, they'll score first.
Let's see the d back score first. Is that just
Marte effect? The Phillies score first, they got a good
top of the order. The Mariners score first a lot
fifty seven percent time. That's pretty cool because the Mariners
offense isn't great and that probably gives the pitchers nice leads.
Orioles are on here and Tigers. So the Orioles I
(19:34):
think have been on every list offensively that we've looked
at in these scoring tendencies. That's really good. Last, but
not least segment. We're looking at the most to the
left of home plate, to the right of home plate
above below hits of the season thus far. So this
one is to from the pitcher's perspective, This is to
(19:54):
the right of the plate, and this is the ball
most to the right that it's been hit. It was
negative one seven to two. Is that inches? I don't
know what that is. I tried to guess last time.
I got it wrong. People got up something and he
just throws the bat at it grounds past bare hand,
can't come up with it. He's safe. Okay, that doesn't
(20:15):
scream bizarre to me. I mean he went out there
and just like tapped it. I can't believe that's the farthest.
I would have thought it would have looked way different.
Let's go look at the Bryce Harper has one that
is that was negative one, seven to two. This Bryce
Harper one is negative one, seven to one. I just
want to see how different it it is. And again,
(20:37):
if you were listening on audio only, sorry, because this
is visually aided. Probably that whole first section is aided
by visuals as well, because I was showing the graph
and the charts and you could follow a long. I
apologize by that. This next one to Harper is a
three to two. Oh, I don't know if it's gonna load.
It's a three to two high and away change up.
(20:58):
Oh boy, we gotta get out of here, all right.
The next one, the most now inside, the most to
the left of home plate is a bunt by Will Brennan.
It's a sinker that starts way in. Oh no, it's
a lefty sinker. So it runs into his body. He's
trying to get a bunt down, make it biggers you
(21:19):
can see, and it's about to hit him and it
just becomes like protect the body mode, Like his bat
becomes a shield and is able to get it down
and like a beautiful bunt. Actually kind of funny because
that ball starts running in. Yeah, it's in the batter's box.
Next up, we got the lowest ball hit so far,
(21:42):
zero point four I think it's into oh feet. It
says right there on the screen. That's when people got
mad at me last time because they were like, it
says right there in the screen, Jimmy, use your eyes
zero point four feet off the ground on this PCA
Pete Crow Armstrong single and this is awesome. It's an
O two pitch and it just blocks it like for
(22:09):
my people that are cricket enthusias, oh my god. Then
he runs into the omp. That's hilarious in cricket, and
people that don't follow cricket won't know. But the people
that know is this is like a perfect Yorker that
the batter just blocks. But then he gets a single
out of it because it's like a nice bunt. Okay,
(22:29):
that Harper one might be loaded now if we want
to check. Because the high pitches are a bit of
a clown show, right, they're a bit of a I
see what's happening here because this pitch is five point
fourteen feet above dead center of the zone. I think
(22:52):
they measured from or the ground. Can't be from the ground.
Maybe it can. I have no idea. Stop trying. Maybe
it's from the ground. Is that that high? Like some
batters are taller if you're like six or eight, like judge,
five feet isn't gonna be that high. It's gonna be
like chest high. The two highest pitches hit where both
Garrett Stubbs a position player, just lobbing the pill. So
(23:16):
that one, yeah, that's if I saw that, I'd be like,
that might be the highest ball hit. Maybe that is
five feet high because it's coming down. He hits it
around shoulder high, and I don't know how tall McCann is.
Let's see six ' two, So yeah, maybe maybe, okay,
maybe anyway, And then I was like, well, that's what's
the highest, like real pitch that's been hit. So I
(23:37):
went to the next highest pitch. Guess what it's our
dude Stubby again and bla Day hammers that one. No,
this one's over the heart of the plate, well not
over the hard play, but was in the middle and
he hits it real nice. It's forty that's forty miles
per hour, and I mean that is honestly, that one
looks higher than the other one. Let's see. I'm gonna
(23:58):
make I'm gonna make them the same on screen. We're
at ninety percent screen size, and I have it the
picture right to the top, so ninety okay, So now
watch this. I'll watch this beautiful math. I set my
window of chrome to ninety percent, so they should be
the same size. If I taggle back and forth, Oh,
looks like a different camera angle. No, they zoomed in.
(24:20):
I'd have to take this into premiere and mess around
with it. And I won't do that because that's too
much time. Maybe a montage. Maybe I just okay, back,
just spend way too much time organizing a lot of
stuff for you guys, for me, for whoever. So now
to find the true height? Were these different? I forgot that.
This is the reason I paused to open up Adobe Premiere,
(24:41):
because I ended up doing a bunch more that makes
this show more interesting. So kudos to me, Kudos to
you guys for tuning in, Thanks for watching what I
do where you know this show? I just sit here
and Tuckley a crazy guy. I had the keyframe because
the camera's changed on me, you know, it's they zoomed
out a little bit, so I we had the keyframe
every five frames to make it stay the same, so
(25:03):
we could see once and for all, which pitch by
Garrett Stubbs was higher. Do we believe the data? We should?
We totally should. Uh So the one on the outside,
the one they said was higher. Now I'm just gonna
drag this line on the screen right to there. Okay,
that's the height of that ball. Now, wow, look at that.
(25:28):
The data was right. No need to do what I
did at all, but I did it, and we're here.
What else I did while I was underneath the hood
was I got this is the next highest one. And
it's again a position player pitching, and that's not really
in the spirit of what we got going on. So
it's just another ephis that Lindor sits on and drills
(25:51):
for a single. So we had to keep going. Okay,
now we got Smiley pitching the jock Peterson. This might
help us get what we wanted to get to. And
this pitch is Oh, look at that guy back right
just getting into a seat just in the nicked time.
Let's see if he gets his eyes got his eyes there? Wow? Wow,
(26:11):
that was cool. So that's an O two, probably a
setup fastball, trying to set up something off that pitch
because you're just throwing that that change the eye line
to make him a little uncomfortable. And Jock says, I'll
just hit it, rockets it to first. So that's the
highest pitch hit for a hit this season by Jock.
(26:32):
That wasn't an ephis pitch. Next up, what did I do? Oh?
You know what I did? I went and I got
the side angle of the Pete crow Armstrong cricket hit
because that was just fascinating to me and I wanted
to see if it bounce. I don't think it did. Wow,
it didn't. He just catches it right at the end.
(26:52):
Just fuck okay. So then I found the Bryce Harper one.
So remember I said, this freily one, which to the
right side, so he's a lefty, it's outside. It didn't
like look to me like I wouldn't watch it and say, wow,
that's crazy. I found the harp Rones the next one
and same, so I guess that doesn't look crazy to me.
Farthest off the plate hit for a home run, and
(27:15):
if we're looking at the farthest ball hit for a
home run by a lefty. The farthest outside pitch that
a left he took deep. It's Devors versus the tonk Man,
and he pulled it. So that's incredible that not only
did he get that, it's the most outside pitch hit
(27:35):
by any batter for a home run by any lefty,
and he pulled it, and he pulled it was a
four seam ninety three mile par fast, but he pulled
it to right center. Unbelievable. What Devers can do. Just crazy. Okay,
Now the farthest inside pitch to a lefty, we have
Rosario up and some sort of breaking ball and he
(27:59):
gets his hands in and pulls that like crazy, just
clobbers it. So that was pretty inside because the break
starts inside and he got to open up, get his
hands clear. Now let's go to righty's. This is the
most inside pitch to a righty, and this pitch is
more inside, so on the right, the pitcher's right side
(28:21):
than the Devers was super inside ninety six mile per
hour sinker and Vierling turns on it, sends it in
to the outfield overerneath above the little Caesar sign and
to get his hands and get the barrel through. It's
pretty impressive because that was really inside. The most outside
pitch hit by a righty batter is also wildly impressive.
(28:43):
Now he doesn't pull it like Devers did, but Gary Sanchez,
this is one O two on the pitch, one hundred
two miles per hour outside. No righty has hit a
home or off a pitch more outside than that, which
is a little surprising to me because it's not it's
like raisy outside like it doesn't. And Gary's standing close
(29:03):
to the plate. I wouldn't I wouldn't have guessed that's
the farthest, but it is. This is the lowest pitch
hit for a home run by Mason Win, my son Wins,
and it is a yaker seventy nine miles per hour,
digs it out of the bottom of the zone, throws
it for a home run. Pretty nice. And then this
is the highest pitch hit for a home run Siege CJ.
(29:28):
Abrams and that's ninety six and kind of outside. I mean,
that is crazy. It's pretty high. He just goes and
gets it. That's what you got to do in like blitzball,
where they just fly. I gotta go, thank you, subscribe, goodbye,