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October 30, 2024 25 mins

Jomboy is breaking down the three things he likes most in the baseball world this week!

Watch this episode on YouTube: https://youtu.be/OUMooIvJpH0

0:00 Intro
0:33 Yankees force more baseball
5:51 A new stat called the flip game
14:44 MLB trying to go national
22:38 Other odds and ends

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Transcript

Episode Transcript

Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hello, and welcome to Jimmy's Three Things. Thank you very
much for tuning in. There's three things in the world
of Major League Baseball I want to talk to you
about today. One, the Yankees avoid the sweep and win
Game four to force a game five. Two are all
elimination games equal? No, So who's the best at flip games?
And how does the momentum swing? Kind of a guest entry,

(00:22):
And three MLB's media writes changing kind of they want
to We'll get into it. I'm gonna take a breath
as always. Jimmy's Three Things is a production of Dan
Patrick Production's John Boy Media and Workhouse Media. As I
start the show today, it is twelve twenty nine on
is it on Wednesday, Wednesday morning, the game, just the

(00:44):
game wrapped up. Jake and I just recorded talking Yanks.
I pre recorded the two to three segments that are
after this, but I figured being topical would play nice
because I thought maybe baseball would there's a chance baseball ended,
so I would have to open in the show with like,
well that's the end of baseball season, but there's still
more fun stuff we're going to talk about. Congratulations to

(01:06):
the Dodgers because if that happened, to not address it
would have been odd. So I saved the beginning, but hey,
Yanks won, they went up big. Did the Dodgers throw
they're A pitchers? No? Did they throw their B pictures
no C pittures? Yes? Yeah, it was a one run game.

(01:27):
And did the Dodgers go to someone they wanted to
really make sure held that lead or did they prioritize
keeping relievers fresh and not burning anyone that they would?
They would they would care about burning in a in
a winning effort. Yeah, So I'm not a naive, dumb
Yankee fan. I h it's nice to win and have

(01:51):
some good memories and not feel like the dread that
the came with the first three games. As far as optimism,
you start saying, well, Cole's good, but then you got
to go back to La with ro Don and Clark
and I don't know and that bats. Is this enough
to get them hot? Is this enough to get them

(02:12):
hot versus better pitchers? Who knows? Because tomorrow you know
today if you're listening, as Dodgers are gonna run out
Floherty and have a short leash, and they can do it.
They're A and B plus bullpen for like six innings
if they want. So it's still super tough. Hopefully they
can make a series out of it, get the casual
viewer back, because I think you lose that with a sweep.

(02:33):
You're like, ah, whatever, that stinks. So hopefully we can
get it to go six. You get a whole day
of promotion on the travel day, more baseball for everyone,
even if you're a third party, right, that'd be nice.
We're actually going to the game game five tomorrow, so
i'd really like it if that's not the last game
and we can do one final stream stream of the
season afterwards, because those have been a ton of fun.

(02:55):
If you haven't been joining in. I did a live
breakdown today on the stream wall, like a minute break
down of the fan who grabbed the ball out of
Mookie's glove, like ripped his glove open. Uh. Insane move,
absolutely insane move. Uh. People are very upset with us

(03:18):
because our reaction was laughter, but it was kind of like, yeah,
I don't know, did he interfere. Let's see the replay
and then the most blatant, obvious, most lunatic interference you've
ever seen. It's terrible. The shot that shows that Mookie
like couldn't really stand, so he's like hurting him potentially,
like stretching his for him is awful. Uh, and like

(03:40):
obviously fucked up and he got kicked out. They called
made the right call and they should be banned. Still,
such a blatant disregard for like the rules and like
being like what's like the code of like how you
how he should operate in public? Like what's the blanket
on the term? There such a play in disregard for

(04:04):
what is proper and what it's just fucking not that
still makes me laugh a little bit. And the face
he was making, like dude, that guy was like all
his might ripping his glove open and to spin the
ball out. Just never seen it like you'd be like
all the fans took it out of his glove and
usually it just gets knocked around, banged around. This was

(04:24):
like a full on tear not cool. Glad Mookie's fine,
and glad the umpires got the call right, and glad
those guys got the boot. Don't don't do that. Don't
throw stuff. I say this shit all the time. Don't
throw stuff at players, don't touch players, don't do any
of that. But Yeah, that'd be like a ball got

(04:47):
thrown in the outfield and they're like, well, I don't know,
are we gonna be able to tell who threw it?
And they like go to the crowd and there's a guy,
Buddy the l throwing balls with both hands. I think
it's that dude. That's kind of what that was. Is
there anything else about this game? Volpi? Big game? Freddy? Oh? Yeah,

(05:09):
what Freddy Freeman's doing is insane, and what the Yankees
are doing is crazy. Why are you pitching to him?
Otani has the same stats as Judge and it might
be really banged up. You can get Mookie out if
you pitch right. He's been really really good. But stop
throwing him fastballs away? And then why are they pitching

(05:29):
to Freddy Freeman? There's no need. There's no need to
let Freddy Freeman give up two run home runs in
the first inning. Do you know who? The Dodgers aren't
pitching to Soto in the first inning right away? They're
not doing it. What are the Yankees doing? Nicole's gonna
go after him. That'll be interesting. All right, Well, I'm
gonna snap, my laptop's gonna appear, and here's the next topic. Okay,

(05:51):
welcome to Jimmy. Before Game four, when I am numb,
I'm probably more numb. Maybe I'm just reflectively happy because
the Yankees lost. Maybe I'm still in torture chamber because
they won. Anyway, here's the next two things. A ready,
I'm doing this before it starts because I got time.
Aaron em sent me this and I really appreciate it.

(06:14):
Sent me over on Reddit, and it's an interesting theory.
He said, I was watching one of your recent Jimistry
things reminded me of some personal research I was doing
for fun. I thought I would share it. He's a
Dodgers fan, and he says since both the Dodgers and
Guardians forced winner take all game fives after trailing two
to one in their series, he heard a stat that

(06:35):
the Guardian snapped an eleven game losing streak in elimination games,
and he says he wanted to a deeper dive on that.
Aaron says, I was thinking about how not all elimination
games seem to be created equal. If you win a
game four trailing three zero, which is what the Yankees
are up against today, you already know if they won
it or lost it, or even Game five when trailing

(06:57):
three to one. Those games seem less impact then forcing
a game five in a five game series, or forcing
a Game seven in a seven game series, which makes
so much more sense beause like it's balancing of the scales,
he is coining them, he says, So I invented a
new concept stat called the flip game. So like, yeah,

(07:21):
balancing the scales game, he's calling it the flip game
because the momentum is flipped. You know, in game six,
the team that already has three wins, they have all
the momentum. They win and they win the World Series,
or they move on to the World Series, whereas the
other team backs against the wall, but all of a

(07:41):
sudden they win. They have no momentum going into game seven.
You do see this happen a lot, especially in the
five game series. I think we just saw it with
the Dodgers and the Guardians. As he says, the Yankees
did it to the Guardians twice in twenty seventeen. They
were down to nothing, they won the next three, so
they won the flip game game four, and then in

(08:04):
twenty twenty two the Yankees in DS again with the Guardians.
I think the the Rays were up three to nothing
in twenty twenty against the Astros and they took it
to a seven game and then the raise one game seven.
So it is interesting and it's way different than winning
the three to zero game or the two O game,

(08:26):
for sure. So our guy Aaron looked at all MLB
playoff series since twenty ten, not including three game wildcard series. Nice,
those don't count, No one ever thinks they do. And
he found every flip game, So every game, every game
four in the DS, every game six in the CS

(08:47):
and World series. He looked at all of those. There
have been sixty nine flip games in MLB since twenty ten,
So what's sixty nine divided by twenty four that's around
two a little under three a year. That's a good amount.
That means we're getting exciting playoffs, heeri, hees exciting enough.

(09:08):
Thirty six of those have seen the team trailing in
the series win the flip game. So thirty six out
of sixty nine times game five or game seven is
forced more often than not, right, thirty six out of
sixty nine thirty six diout it by sixty nine is

(09:32):
fifty two. It's a coin flip. It's a coin flip,
but a little more often than not, a Game seven
and a Game five are forced. But in twenty two
of those thirty six final games the how does he
phrase it, and twenty two of those teams have won

(09:56):
the following winner take all game as well. So if
you are down four to two or three to two, sorry,
three to two, and in game six you win, you're
more likely to then win game seven because you have
the momentum. Now you're feeling hot. Maybe that team burned

(10:17):
all their good pitchers and lost. This happened to my
Yankees in twenty seventeen. They were up three to two
on the Astros. They went back to Houston, and the
Astros won Game six, and then they won Game seven.
What about in the twenty nineteen World Series, because that
went seven as well, Right, Game six, that's game that's

(10:46):
after game six. So Houston was up three to two,
the Nationals won Game six, which force game seven, and
then the Nationals won. Interesting, so he had he said,
he included a spreadsheet, then you can figure out how
to include it. And I tried to get in touch
with him, but I decided it's my fault, not our
guy's fault, so that I don't have the spreadsheet, but

(11:08):
I am interested in the spreadsheet. Twenty twenty alcs how
did this one play out? Because this might be an
example of that not happened because Rays Rays, Rays, Houston, Houston, Houston,
and then the Rays won Game seven, So that's that's
not the example. So sixty one percent of the teams

(11:31):
that win the flip game go on to win the series,
So momentum is real. I guess wow Ah. Then he
says I looked at the same numbers since twenty thirteen,
the first year of his Dodgers playoff streak, and that
percentage is up to sixty nine percent of the time
since twenty thirteen, so even in recent years even more likely.

(11:52):
Also looks since twenty twenty one posts the pandemic era,
with the Dodgers and Guardians winning this weekend, all six
teams that want to flip game since twenty twenty one
have gone on to win their series one hundred percent
of the time. Damn close it out? Maybe, well, I
think the Yankees are gonna lose. I don't think Theyes
have any chance. So the Yankees, if they can win

(12:14):
Game four and then win Game five, and as I'm
saying this, you guys already know what happened. So in
the scenario, the Yankees won today, win the next two. Whatever.
That's so hard, it's not gonna happen. I probably didn't.
I probably already did it. I wanted to compare this
to some other sports. Look at this, my guy, Aaron
loves it. So I looked at the NBA and the

(12:37):
WNB games as well. There aren't any statistically significant differences.
He's a data scientist, so I had to check. But
the raw numbers for MLB are better in favor of
teams that win the flip game. Since twenty ten, only
fifty one percent of NBA trailing teams that win the
flip game win the series, and only thirty percent of
WNB team wins. Baseball is so much more unique, where

(12:59):
you have a new pitcher, right, and you're as good
as your starting pitcher, and maybe your bullpen got used.
Whereas basketball and hockey, you can make changes. Obviously, you
can adapt to make changes, give more playing time to
this guy, switch goalies, make changes, change up the line
formations in hockey, but ultimately none of that is nearly
as big as the starting pitcher for the next game
and the bullpen usage. So baseball is definitely more has

(13:24):
more going on. When we do our podcast for the
New York Rangers Bandwagon Blue Shirts, where we recap every
playoff game for the Rangers as Bandwagon fans. If you've
never listened to it, I would suggest go listening to it.
If you of your diehard hockey fan, No, because you'll

(13:44):
you'll hate our guts because it's not real. But it's
very fun. Ten minute hard clock ridiculous. But anyway, that's
one thing. Following playoff hockey, I'm like, there's not as
much to chew on in between games as baseball, where
you have, well, now he's going to start, and if
we could get to him then okay, and this is
going to be a bullpen game, okay, And now you

(14:04):
know there's so much more to chew on in baseball
series because of the starting pitcher situation. And then said
he attached a spreadsheet, which I wish we knew how
to do it, but he wasn't able to. He says, anyway,
I thought you might be interested in this. Yes, love it,
love this is exactly what this show is. So I'm
very happy that you send this in Aaron, and then

(14:26):
he sent me this a while ago. Here's hoping for
a Dodgers Jankees world series. He got his wish. Cheers
hoping for a great world series. He got his wish.
I didn't get mine. He got his. So that's the
flip game, which I do like that data some other
stuff I wanted to talk about. Call this thing number three.
And then there's some odds and ends. Manfred Commissioner. Manfred

(14:51):
went on a podcast. Let me make sure I click
this open to give the podcast proper credit. I'm reading
an article from Awful and now Sing and they are
quoting a podcast that Manford went on, John Oran's Our Urans.
I don't know how his name the Varsity podcast for

(15:12):
Puck on Sunday. So Rob Manford won in this contest
podcast and talked about the media landscape, which I had
talked to some people at I MOB a little bit
just and heard tinket little trinkets of this and I
liked h hearing what they were talking about. But man
Friends said, and this is a Manfred quote. As we

(15:32):
started to think about the landscape more generally, we came
to realize that our broadcast product needs to be more
national like most crisises. The difficulties with the rsns, which,
if you don't know what a RSN is, a regional
sports network, presented an opportunity for us to get into
a more centralized media strategy. So a very quick, abrupt,

(15:59):
boiled down history if you have no idea, And I
talked about this last episode a little bit. Regional sports
networks existed and the teams had the rights to sell
their broadcast, and the Yankees sold their rights to you know,
yes network, you know, but then they created their own networks,

(16:20):
so they're not selling their rights, they're just distributing it themselves.
Ballys bought all the rights and so on, and so
far as your Comcast or whoever it is, you know,
you're selling your rights on these regional sports networks. And
to make the price point better, they charge for exclusivity.
So oh okay, you you have to pay one hundred

(16:42):
million dollars for the rights to one hundred and fifty games.
The other twelve we get to sell to whoever, or
one hundred and forty game package, you had to pay
one hundred million dollars. Well, if I'm buying all those
games for one hundred million dollars. They better be exclusive
to us. I don't want to find out that someone
can watch it elsewhere and say, okay, it's exclusive. That's

(17:03):
how it worked before the Internet, when it was regional
sports and you just had you watch your team in
your city. That's what happened. Teams that had really big
markets sold their rights for way more Dodgers, Yankees, you know,
all these huge markets. Then teams that built their own
network it was even better, which a lot of teams

(17:24):
ended up doing. But this led to this is what
Manford says. He says, you know, the rsns were really
good for us from a financial perspective, which is true.
It's why baseball has crazy amounts of money because they
have so many games and the teams are getting rich
off those. But they did make the game more and

(17:45):
more local and did not give us a full opportunity
for reach. Absolutely, it's the most local regional game ever.
Most of that's by nature of if you watch your
team every night, you don't have time to watch other teams,
because that's a lot of time you're devoting to watch
your team six sometimes seven nights a week. He says.

(18:08):
To get the most fans. Let fans watch the game
they want to watch, which is obvious. You know, everyone's
been crying about this for a while. But because Balies
went bankrupt and they and they got MLB got rights back.
They got the rights to Colinda Rockies, Arizona Diamondbacks, San
Diego Padres, and then they were able to put them

(18:29):
on MOBTV. They're not blocked out. You pay for mobtv
and all that stuff. Next season, the league is adding
three more teams to that list. Cleveland Guardians, Milwaukee Brewers
and Minnesota Twins, all not on Ballet's anymore, will be
MLB owned. And MLB does do a good job with
their broadcast. Like I I'm Stickler. I like broadcast. It's

(18:51):
my world. I like living in it. I like modeling
what we do in the warehouse where we have a
sixteen camera, forty person crew broadcasting games. Basically, I really
like it. And there's a lot out there in the
regional sports over that's not good and I don't like
what they do, and I don't think they're paying attention.
I don't think they care. The MLB broadcast for the Rockies,

(19:11):
Diamondbacks and Padres is actually really good. It's well done.
They care And I talked to some people at MLB
about this and they said, yeah, we really want to
standardize it more and will hope this work. So I
knew they were talking about this, but now they're gonna
have six teams. And Manfred suggests that the league is
approaching how it sees local rights a bit differently, with

(19:32):
emphasis on making these games accessible no matter where a
fan it may be located. If Manfred ends blackouts and
brings in the automated strike zone, he will have made
the most changes to the industry and the sport of
baseball than any other commissioner like Barnun. In my mind,
he already banned the sticky stuff, He banned the shift,
He got the pitch clock in the game. If he

(19:54):
ends blackouts and brings in automatic strike zones in the
next year or two before he leaves, that's going to
be you know, down the line, that's gonna you're to
look at that and you'd be like, oh, that was
all under Like, it's gonna be crazy the amount of
changes he made that so far, I am enjoying, you know,
the three I mentioned. So he says what I'd like

(20:16):
to see happen over time. Is we do our national
deals that we convert some of the local inventory into
national inventory, it increases our reach. And at the same time,
when you think about it, we own the out of
market rights already. If we control local rights as well,
we can sell anything anywhere, right, So they don't own
the local rights to a lot of teams, you don't

(20:39):
have to just sell on your market. So he's saying
whether if it's where I'd like, He says, I'd like
to get in a mode where if it's not in
a national package, the consumer has the ability to go
in by what he wants, buy what he wants to watch.
They she come on rob wherever he they she is,
and we get rid of that really questionable business concept

(21:01):
of the blockout. So he's saying, there will still be
games that will be sold to national TV ESPN, Fox, TBS, Apple,
and those you have to have ESPN, Fox, you have
to have the national TV to watch those. But if
and that'll be a select few. But if they're not,

(21:22):
anyone should be able to watch them anywhere on MLBtv.
The biggest issue with this is teams like the Yankees
and Dodgers will lose. In my head, a ton of
money if they don't have their right, like the Dodgers
are able to spend as much as they do because
their broadcast deal is like crazy, so they'd have to

(21:45):
make They'd have to make some deal of revenue sharing.
I don't know how you do it. Oh. The article
says that idea may still be a ways off, as
getting teams with more lucrative local media rights agreements on
board with a revenue sharing model is likely to prove difficult.

(22:07):
And yeah, it's gonna be proved very difficult. I don't know.
I'd be like owners versus owners, or like Manfred would
have to I don't know it'd be I don't know
why the Dodgers owe so much money now to all
this deferred money. It's all their broadcast package and deal
is like so lucrative. So but Manford wants to end blackouts. Now,

(22:32):
it's just can you because you've dug yourself into such
a hole. That'll be interesting some other quick odds and
ends before I get out of here. Tropic and a Field.
They're gonna play somewhere. They want to stay in the
local market in the area, so they're spring training teams.
They said Sarasota might be an option because that's the
Oriel spring training facility and they don't have a minor

(22:54):
league team. But they're probably gonna play in a training
facility in Tampa or maybe many which because the Trop
the roof is just closed and then don't repair the trop,
like use this as an opportunity. That'll be interesting though,
two teams playing out of minor league facilities, this one

(23:15):
for more understandable reasons than the A's and Stockton. I
did like this quote from Manfred at the end. The
one thing I can tell you for sure they're playing
next year. We're going to find them someplace to do it.
I don't think until I read that sentence, I didn't
think it was an option. That the Rays weren't going

(23:36):
to play baseball last year. So that's good news. And
then I was like, let's check in on managers Marlins.
I haven't read any of these reports at all. The
Marlins into manager and they According to a report from
Craig Mish of the Miami Herald, the Marlins have identified
Guardians Bench Coast Craig Albernass and Rangers associate manager Will
Enable Venable as their finalists, and then the White Sox

(24:01):
are looking at Phil Nevin, hard nosed guy like Phil
nice to us uh Cardinals bench coach Daniel Descalzo, Rangers
bench coach Will the Nebel the Nabel. I say, he's
got up for two jobs. And White Sox interim Grady Sizemore.
What's in a manager? You know, vote did a great

(24:24):
job until the postseason where it didn't think he did
a good job at all. Who knows, like Quatruro and
the Royals. He went to the Royals and they had
a terrible season and then they like regrouped and he
was like, well, yeah, this front office, this analytics apartment
is way behind. We need to catch up. So like,

(24:45):
that was a good job by Quatarro, but that's not
his job. He's not supposed to be managing the rest
of the analytics apartment. That's supposed to be the GM.
It took hiring a manager from the Rays to come
in and be like, you guys, are you guys? We're dumb?
We need to get smart. So I don't even know
what's in a you know, head coaches, temperament, energy, vibes,

(25:06):
and then postseason decisions where it gets magnified. I guess
in a small, small series. There you go, Jimmy's Three
Things plus some odds or ends. I started the episode
in a mood that's different than now, because now I'm
gonna go watch the game, and then at the end

(25:27):
of the game, it will put me in the mood
you saw at the beginning of the episode. Appreciate you subscribe.
Is it the off season? Are these episodes about to
get off seasony and fun and I'll read some history
books and find some dumb stuff. Or are the Yankees
live in to torture me another day? You guys know

(25:49):
I don't see you.
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