November 11, 2025 • 46 mins
The Favorites is back for a look at NFL Week 11! Action Network experts Stuckey, Kendra Middleton and Brandon Kravitz go digging early in the week after a slog of a Monday Night Football matchup. The New York Giants part ways with head coach Brian Daboll, it looks like Joe Burrow plans to practice this week and the crew each plants their flag early on a game in NFL Week 11. Finally, we get some nuggets from the weekly NFL Primer courtesy of Action Director of Research Evan Abrams, delivering everything needed to start digging into the betting week in the NFL.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:10):
Welcome to the Favorites, presented by DraftKings. The crown is yours.
We are an Action Network podcast. I'm Brandon Kravitz and
the crew is back together on this fine Tuesday morning.
Kendra Middleton and the Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation, Stucky
is here as well. On today's episode, We've got our
plant the Flag game for week eleven. A Thursday night
(00:32):
preview that ought to be quick because that game is
kind of gross, and of course the main event Evans
Tuesday primer. Phenomenal night of football last night, a true
throwbacks looby knocker, and one that netted me some cheese
along the way, both literally and figuratively. Now, Kendra, the
touchdown props did let us down last night. You and
(00:55):
Evan handled things quite well on the Sunday night recap show.
Speaker 2 (00:59):
But what are you feel we.
Speaker 1 (01:00):
Learned from that ten to seven slugfest on ABC Slash ESPN.
Speaker 3 (01:07):
I learned that maybe these bitch ass billionaires are right.
Speaker 4 (01:11):
YouTube TV was right.
Speaker 3 (01:12):
I didn't need to watch that game last night. They
saved me, low key from having to sit down and
watch that on my couch.
Speaker 4 (01:19):
Instead.
Speaker 3 (01:20):
I made bagels and banana bread and that was a
better use of my time than really sitting there intensely
watching that game because it was ass.
Speaker 1 (01:28):
I'm a YouTube TV subscriber. I wasn't able to sit
back and watch it last night. I'm boycotting the ESPN dispute.
Eventually I will have to give in, Thankfully. I was
working a magic game last night, so I wasn't sitting
on the couch debating how I want to spend my
thirty dollars that ESPN is trying to get from us.
Speaker 3 (01:47):
But it's twenty dollars and also fun fact, you have
to go in to your account and activate it.
Speaker 4 (01:53):
You don't actually just get it.
Speaker 3 (01:55):
You have to go on your desktop and activate the
coupon you.
Speaker 1 (02:01):
Well that's but that's just for the They just give
you twenty dollars. They're not giving us ESPN. I want
the network. I don't want their money.
Speaker 2 (02:08):
Stucky. What'd you take away from last night?
Speaker 5 (02:11):
Yeah, for I was a great call by you, you
got a terrible bet by me. I mean, I don't
care about losing a bet. Things happen in a football game,
but like always want to get the best of the line,
so didn't there. It was probably my worst week of NFL.
I also, it was a trade deadline week. I know
better than the bet early Sometimes I bet the Falcons
plus six could have gotten a six and a half
if it was by six in overtime. So just some
(02:33):
terrible bets made across the board. But yeah, I thought
the Eagles were the slightly better team. I mean, no
one did anything. I mean, I can't remember the NFL
being this boring in a long long time. That's just
the bottom, not not even I'll get to that game
in Secon, but just the bottom of the league right
now is so bad and it's creating way too many
uncompetitive games. But yeah, I thought both offenses were ugly.
(02:58):
The Eagles offense still looks broken. The play calling is
not creative. They're running it too much. And then the
Packers did the same. I get that Jenkins left the game,
there was no golden I underestimated the loss of Craft
not only in the receiving game, but also what he
does in other facets. And then they lost Dobbs at
the end, and you're throwing to bo Melton too much.
(03:20):
But I thought that the Packers were just poorly coached
throughout the whole game. On offense, I mean, you have
a fourth and one. It's kind of ironic. This happened
against the Eagles, a fourth and one where you false start.
You had a long play to Christian Watson which took
away a score. They were it was an illegal formation.
(03:40):
They had an illegal formation on the fourth down on
that to end the game before they ended up getting
the ball back. But on that play, I mean the
Eagles were calling out the play. They were saying, inside zone.
You're running an inside zone fourth and one from shotgun
without your starting center in there. Get up and sneak
it or do something else and then and then you
(04:03):
have you have the floor. Who I love Brandon McManus
has done. He's I think he's three of nine from
forty plus this year. I get he was like five
yards away on the first kick, but he's not making
a sixty four yard or outdoors in Lambeau and he's bomb.
Speaker 4 (04:23):
Leg His career is sixty one.
Speaker 2 (04:26):
So yeah, that was probably in Denver in his prime though.
Speaker 4 (04:30):
Yeah.
Speaker 5 (04:31):
Yeah, and there was there was some win that was
apparently going with them, but like it swirls and I
thought that was a horrible decision. So yeah, I mean,
the thing is with the Packers right now, they have
to figure out their offense. So like, what do you
do the Eagles that basically were inviting them to run
the ball the entire game, and they obliged. There was
(04:52):
way too many early down runs and they kind of
played right. I get the the no craft and injuries
oft receiver, but there were opportunities downfield that they're whenever
they did try to throw it and they either didn't
make the player didn't do it often enough. But they
have to figure out the offense because this defense right
now is playing at a super Bowl caliber level. I mean,
(05:13):
you look at some of their losses this year. They
think they have three losses where they haven't allowed more
than two scores on the year. So like, you have
to you only allow ten points in that game at home,
I don't care about the injuries. You have to you
have to find a way to score more than seven
points at home. So yeah, they have some soul searching
(05:34):
to do. I didn't think Laflour called a great game.
So the defense is a super Bowl caliber but the
special team certainly is in right now, and then the
offense isn't and you're they're gonna have to get more
creative without Craft. Now this week, it probably won't hurt them.
You're going up against the Giants run defense, so you
can get away with all these early down runs most likely.
(05:57):
But I mean, if you want to make a real run,
this offense has to figure some things out. It will
also help when their wide receivers get healthy. But I
definitely underestimated the loss of Craft, but was disappointing just
coaching effort, I thought from the floor and the Packers
all around, and then the Eagles still have questions on offense.
But I did think I was really impressed with the
Eagles defense been a pretty average unit all year. The
(06:19):
addition of Phillips, I thought was big. I thought he
played really well, gave him, gave them some extra juice
off the edge. So I thought Roseman did a really
nice job, which usually does with the addition of Phillips.
I think he raises the floor of that defense. So
he had big win for the Eagles, is huge in
the NFC standings. And then you look like that game
(06:40):
was so much more important for the Packers because look
at their division, it's going to be an all out
warthrount and then look at the Eagles division. I mean,
the Commanders have basically quit on the season, and they
have I don't even know who they have left on
the roster. The Giants just fired their coach. I mean,
the Cowboys have a historically bad defense. It's night and
(07:01):
day when you compare the NFC East and the NFC North.
So that game was a big, big swing for the
Packers and gets the Eagles even more breathing room as
they try to go after that one seed.
Speaker 3 (07:13):
We're missing the most important, slash insane part of the evening.
This is the revenge of the touch push game. The
Packers are the people who wanted to ban the touch
push after the most after the postseason last year, and
the Eagles on the touch push go early, don't get
the call, and then a couple of plays later, the
Packers go early and they call it on the Packers.
Speaker 4 (07:36):
It's just flat out comedy comedy.
Speaker 5 (07:39):
Just did the Packers go for a fall start too?
But they didn't call up right? I don't understand why
they can't see this, Why they can't see it so obvious.
Speaker 2 (07:51):
I mean, the guys in the booth are calling it out.
Speaker 4 (07:53):
It's the band fans.
Speaker 5 (07:57):
I'm not even like half paying attention to a game.
If there's another game on another screen, I can see it,
like not even like, but you're looking right down the line.
I don't understand why I can't catch it. That might
end up being the downfall of the touchbush. I'm not
four banning plays, but if they can't officiate it correctly,
and I don't know why, I gotta ask a raf
(08:18):
why it seems so obvious that you would be able
to Yeah, that's the only thing you're looking for. You're
just looking down the line and you're seeing if anyone come.
And sometimes when the Eagles do it, it's like so obvious.
The guards are like shooting past before the balls even snap.
So I don't know why they can't get right. They
missed one on both teams.
Speaker 4 (08:34):
It's embarrassing. It's so embarrassing.
Speaker 3 (08:37):
And it's just the fact that, of course it happens
in that game, and the fans are catching onto it too,
Like you know, it's an issue when the fans are
officiating a game better than your zebras, like heard them, goodell,
what are we doing?
Speaker 2 (08:51):
Yeah?
Speaker 1 (08:52):
Pretty ugly, especially as you mentioned, in a game that
is ten to seven. We saw very little offense on
both sides to get to our main dish.
Speaker 2 (09:02):
You mentioned it, Stucky.
Speaker 1 (09:03):
The Giants fired their head coach, Brian daball is out.
They host the Packers this week, so a nice little
get right for Green Bay perhaps in store.
Speaker 2 (09:13):
First question is was it the right move?
Speaker 1 (09:16):
Day Ball has started the last three seasons two and eight,
but they had something cooking with Jackson Dart and they're
missing half of their functional players on this team. Do
you improve the move, Stucky?
Speaker 5 (09:31):
I mean yeah, I could see it. It's just the
fact that the fact that they kept I mean they
had I think I was reading it was a one
and sixty thousand chants. If you just go based on
the highest the maximum win probability that the Giants had
in the Broncos game, the Bears game, and the Cowboys game,
(09:55):
it's like a one in sixty thousand chance that they
lost all three of those games. A lot of that
has to fall back on the coach. I thought kicking
the field goal this past week was bad. Yeah, I mean,
he's he's always Pagoma, but he's like losing his mind
on the sidelines every week. So I can see why
(10:15):
a change had to be made. I could see the
argument for both sides, but he got dealt a bad
hand this year with all the injuries, and uh, he
walked into a bad situation. Was coach of the Year
his first year. It's pretty wild one went to the playoffs.
Speaker 4 (10:31):
Daniel Jones.
Speaker 1 (10:34):
Two questions. I want to I want to spin off
on this for a second. With the day ball stuff.
Jackson Dart has now been in the blue medical tent
for concussions twice.
Speaker 2 (10:44):
I wonder how much twice?
Speaker 4 (10:45):
I thought three times?
Speaker 2 (10:47):
Is it three? Okay?
Speaker 1 (10:48):
I mean I have two that are I could be
probably imprinted into my head.
Speaker 2 (10:52):
It could be three.
Speaker 1 (10:52):
But we were two very notable, the one this past
weekend and then the one where Brian Daball goes.
Speaker 2 (10:57):
Get the fuck out here. I don't want Wilson flaying quarterback.
Speaker 1 (11:01):
And then you also have the success of Daniel Jones
on the Indianapolis side, and I feel like some of
the criticism towards Brian Daball is, you know, you got
a little bit out.
Speaker 2 (11:10):
Of them, but you didn't get this. Kendra.
Speaker 1 (11:12):
Do you think either of those has anything to do
with Brian Daball getting fired, Daniel Jones success or not
keeping your quarterback healthy?
Speaker 3 (11:19):
I wouldn't say it's the not keeping your quarterback healthy
thing or the Daniel Jones thing like for sure, because
we see quarterbacks go elsewhere and succeed all the time
and their prior coaches not lose their job. For me,
I think it's not the keeping your quarterback healthy so
much beat it's the way he handled that first potential
(11:40):
concussion that he had by going in the tent, letting
Scattabo go in there.
Speaker 4 (11:44):
You can't go twenty and.
Speaker 3 (11:45):
Forty as a head coach and keep your job despite
all of the injuries. I think it was just the
easiest time for them to have an out on him.
But I wouldn't say it's that you can't keep your
quarterback healthy. It's more so just how you handled your
quarterback not being healthy and being on professional going in
the tent yelling at people. I think it was just
more of an out and they needed the reason more
(12:05):
than anything else.
Speaker 1 (12:07):
From a betable perspective, the Packers were eight point favorites
last night in the look Ahead.
Speaker 2 (12:15):
They're now sitting at seven and a half.
Speaker 4 (12:16):
I go back to the.
Speaker 3 (12:19):
Firedhead Coe Jangle, you can it's the perfect bounce back
spot for Green Bay and I do expect them to
absolutely just beat the crap out of them.
Speaker 2 (12:28):
They should.
Speaker 5 (12:29):
Whatever you might have packed ross, we don't know darts exactly.
Speaker 4 (12:35):
I want to speak Jamis. I think this is Jamis.
I will absolutely be in on this number.
Speaker 2 (12:41):
This is my teaser of the week.
Speaker 1 (12:43):
I have the Green Bay Packers down to one and
a half, Lions up to seven and a half. It
is sort of a it's a Monday Night football response here.
The Packers very much in a bounce back spot and
Lions Eagles not much separation there. The Eagles obviously have
issues winning by much, so getting the Lions a plus
(13:06):
seven and a half would feel like a gift. That
would be my way of playing into this. I will
not be playing either in a straight bet formula. What
about you, stuck.
Speaker 3 (13:13):
I think the Lions are so much better than the
Eagles right now.
Speaker 5 (13:17):
I mean the Eagles are just they just find ways.
Speaker 2 (13:20):
They find ways that is ugly up the game.
Speaker 5 (13:23):
What are they sick? They're six and one in one
possession games now like they just but they will have
a they have a half any time they play a
competent opponent, they still have like a half where they
don't score which is very concerning. But I think their
defense is playing a lot better now coming out of
the bye. I will say, and I don't know how
(13:44):
much I can take from the Lions game, like that
was one of the sad I mean you had commanders,
were guys throwing punches getting thrown out, like there was
some quid there, which was very not that they have
much left on that defense, but.
Speaker 1 (13:58):
It is dan Quinn's calling plays on defense too, so
they're making the coaching change. That's always the last line
of defense.
Speaker 5 (14:05):
Yeah, I mean that the Lions did. I I talked
about this last week about how the Lion's offense has
been in the tank for a month and they made
a change at play caller which was noteworthy. I don't know, like, Okay,
did that help things or was is the Washington defense
that bad? It could be a little bit of both.
As far as the Packers, I mean, you do have
(14:25):
to look at the INDRT, like who's going to be
healthy at wide receiver. She saw Dubs leave, Golden was hurt.
There's no craft so like just the the ceiling of
the passing attack right now is pretty low. Now they
should be able to just line up and run it
with Jacob's lot because the Giants run dye is so bad, but.
Speaker 4 (14:47):
They maybe Michael Parsons cursed. Has anybody considered this?
Speaker 2 (14:51):
I would, I would consider you for considering this, But yeah,
I don't.
Speaker 5 (14:55):
I don't want to back Ross like there is some
thing to the new coach, a new coach, and historically
it's like a little bit of a bump. It's not overwhelming,
and a lot of times that's like, hey, here's our
new wrinkles, right, and it's something that the team isn't
prepared for. Now you have a team on a short
week going on the road, facing team and new coach.
(15:16):
But if you have Russell Wilson, like you could, there's
a lot of different new wrinkles that you could do
with Dart, Like what what are you doing with Russ back?
Speaker 2 (15:25):
That guy?
Speaker 4 (15:25):
Please be Jamis Jamis? Yeah, I gives him a better chance.
Speaker 1 (15:33):
I would think, so, I mean, it can't get any worse.
Russ is so washed, but I but maybe with a
new coaching staff, that's the way they look. But day
Ball clearly had something against Jamis ever seeing the field.
Speaker 5 (15:45):
Yeah, that is something I watched for sure, because I
think I would start Jamis as well. I mean it's
just especially as a dog like you just we Russ
just doesn't have it anymore.
Speaker 4 (15:55):
James James the least athletic.
Speaker 5 (15:58):
He might throw a couple of picks, but he has
a better chance of throwing some touchdowns.
Speaker 3 (16:02):
And flank future all week in the locker room and
start Jamis.
Speaker 2 (16:07):
Yeah.
Speaker 5 (16:08):
He Ross's career ended on that officially, and that Chiefs
game when he threw into the tunnel three times.
Speaker 4 (16:17):
I forgot about that. It's like fucking somebody's down their
ball with nobody down there. It's just like vintage Ross.
Speaker 5 (16:25):
Yeah, so that I would I would go Winton too,
but that's certainly worth keeping an eye on.
Speaker 3 (16:30):
Oh god, I making fun of Russell Wilson is so easy,
but it's so fun.
Speaker 5 (16:36):
Yeah, but I agree with you Brandon that it's a
it's a Packers are definitely an intriguing teaser piece.
Speaker 1 (16:43):
Let's get to one more news item, and we've got
Thursday night football to break down as well. Plant the
flag coming up, Evans Primer Burrow back at practice. He's
not gonna play this week. They take on the Steelers.
He's eyeing a Turkey Day return. The Bengals do play
on Thanksgiving, he wants to play.
Speaker 2 (17:01):
This is wild.
Speaker 1 (17:03):
I'm not saying it's the greatest bet in the world,
but perhaps worth the slightest sprinkle. The Bengals right now
are one twenty to one to win the AFC. The Ravens,
who are one game in front of them, are plus
six point fifty. Now, obviously, if we're playing prediction mode,
of which do you expect to win the AFC, if
(17:23):
you had to pick one, we'd all pick the Ravens.
But the price is wildly different. Any interest here as
crazy as it is stucky.
Speaker 5 (17:34):
No, I mean that defense isn't getting fixed, and then
you're gonna burrow like we've seen Burrow. It's like I
bought some Ravens future and division when at the bottom
before the Miami game, and I mean before the Bears game,
(17:54):
and luckily Tyler Huntley won that game. But I don't
like to see the Barrows potentially coming back for that week.
That's when he would have to come back Thanksgiving. Otherwise
his season would be over because they just opened his window.
But they played the Ravens twice in three weeks. But
I mean, like right now, the offense isn't the problem,
(18:15):
like how much more can Burrow do? Like it's it's
the defense, it's the offensive line. But like they just
they've lost games over the past two weeks where they
scored thirty eight and forty two points and they played
the Jets and the Bears. These aren't like the number
one offenses in the league. So I just don't think
(18:38):
that they can with that defense. And then you have
to remember, I mean, they only they have three wins
right now. They're gonna be dogs at the Steelers, they
get the Pats, and they're at the Ravens, they're at
the Bills or the Ravens. Again, that's gonna be tough
because The're gonna have to go on a run like
now before Burrow gets back. And then you also have
to remember, like in the past, when Burrows come back
(19:00):
or I should say just like started the season, he's
not this year, but in prior seasons he's usually dealt
with an injury and like hasn't played in the preseason
or like hasn't been practicing, And then you saw those
first couple of games that it takes them some time
to get going. So number one, we don't know the
rust and we don't know like it will be one
(19:22):
hundred percent healthy. So I mean, if you wanted to
throw some couchs change on it, I wouldn't.
Speaker 2 (19:26):
It's not like I mean two bucks on that toy.
Speaker 5 (19:29):
I would. I can't get too mad at you, but
it's just the defense. Like I just can't see them
ever finding out a way to get enough stops because
and like, yeah, Barrow coming back is a boost, it's
not like scoring a week.
Speaker 1 (19:45):
And the argument for whether it's them or or anybody
where you're getting shorter odds than one that's probably just
going to be a waste of your time is that
the AFC is kind of sketchy this year. I do
feel like now would be a good time. That's the
wildest bet that you can make among teams that have
any sort of opportunity to make it out of the conference.
(20:05):
But I do think right now is a good chance
to look at the board over on DraftKings and see
is there somebody that you believe in that you feel
like you're getting a long number on Kendra, I'm gonna
throw some at you. Tell me which bet you'd be
willing to make. This is just a gut reaction doesn't
mean that you have to go placing it in the app.
Jags sixty to one, not expecting a guess on that,
(20:27):
Chargers eleven to one, Patriots seven to one, the Colts
are plus four to twenty five. Do any of those
sound intriguing as far as just simply making it out
of the conference.
Speaker 4 (20:40):
Probably the Chargers. I have a Chargers.
Speaker 3 (20:42):
Bet like plus one fifty one twenty something like that
preseason for them to make the playoffs. So I've really
been on the Chargers bandwagon for a minute, and I
don't think I'm ready to get off of it yet.
My only issue is that justin Herbert in the postseason,
absolute joke artist, give clutch geen.
Speaker 4 (21:01):
That's my issue. You can get he can get you there.
I don't.
Speaker 3 (21:04):
I don't know how far he can get you in
the postseason. That's my big issue with him. But probably
the Chargers. I get that everybody and their mom loves
the Patriots right now, especially up here, like and deservingly
so they.
Speaker 1 (21:14):
I can only imagine what sportstock radio is like in
your area.
Speaker 3 (21:17):
Oh my god, they deserve all their flowers right now.
But there's no way they stay this healthy. There's no
way this trajectory continues. They just don't have the talent,
Like you can stay healthy and that can get you
so far. And yes, Drake May is incredible, Like injury
come for all of us, and when that happens to them,
like they just don't have the depth at all to
back up anybody. Like God forbid, one person goes down,
(21:40):
They're they're obliterated. I just I can't get behind the
Patriots of those options. For me, I have to continue
to ride my Chargers bandwagon. Even though Lad McConkie is
still in jail.
Speaker 1 (21:52):
Yeah, you know, he's looked good, but maybe he'll break
out this week.
Speaker 2 (21:56):
He's dead to me, he's reached dead loss.
Speaker 1 (21:59):
So we're beyond bet jail. We are now in bet
death with lad McConkie.
Speaker 3 (22:03):
Yeah, me and me and Ladd McConkie were he's he's
halfway in the grave.
Speaker 1 (22:08):
For me, it's six feet under mine would be the
Texans at thirty five to one. If you have the
best defense in the NFL. Well, I know it's not
pretty thirty five to one for the best defense in
the AFC. They just shut teams down in the postseason.
Speaker 2 (22:22):
They could get that.
Speaker 4 (22:23):
I don't even think they're going to make it out
of no I mean.
Speaker 2 (22:25):
They'd have to make the playoffs first.
Speaker 5 (22:26):
But we're about to get to the one case I
will make for the Patriots, though, just I'll say it
is that the Chargers, I just I don't know if
they can go on a run with their offensive line
the current state of it. We'll see. But the one
thing I'll say about the Patriots, like what happened this weekend.
(22:46):
It was huge for them and their chances at getting
the one seed. And I mean, you got Denver as
the Chiefs coming up a couple of times this week
or in the next month, and the Patriots now eight
and two. They've had one of these schedules, but guess what,
their schedule doesn't get much more difficult. The Bills lost,
(23:07):
and that there are two games ahead with one game
in hand, and there's a good chance that the Patriots
are gonna be right there for the one seed, which
is obviously massive. And then you get that highly coveted
by and right now it's I mean, you look at
that game on Sunday from an efficiency standpoint, wasn't great.
But every week it's Drake May and that deep ball
(23:31):
is like a cheap code for this offense, and he
can continues to play extremely well. But like they have
the Jets at home this week, and the Bengals, then
the Giants.
Speaker 1 (23:42):
And their schedule has been so soft, and it just
continues to get softer.
Speaker 5 (23:46):
Yeah it might, but it might save them a game,
and it might give them home field, and.
Speaker 1 (23:50):
They do have some impressive wins, and beating the Bucks
is nothing to sneeze at.
Speaker 2 (23:53):
They got to the win again, you have to.
Speaker 5 (23:56):
Give them credit. But yeah, it's May is May has
played really well and that this weekend did a lot
for their potential to get that one seat and give
them breathing room in the division as well.
Speaker 4 (24:10):
Are we buying his MVP odds?
Speaker 3 (24:12):
I know that at the beginning of the season they're
like eighty or ninety to one or something outrageous like that,
And now he's I don't know if it's him or
Stafford right now, probably him.
Speaker 1 (24:19):
Stafford is the favorite as it stands right now, I
would just lay a bet on Jonathan Taylor and hope
that the narrative gets so loud around him that we
actually go anti quarterback here as far as the number goes.
Speaker 2 (24:35):
I want to see it.
Speaker 4 (24:35):
I just want to I wanted to not be a
quarterback award.
Speaker 3 (24:39):
I just if they didn't give it a saque last year,
it's hard for me to get there in my brain.
Speaker 2 (24:44):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (24:44):
Maybe maybe maybe that shook uh, maybe that shook some
people into thinking maybe we should get start giving this
to a running back. About to take a look at
Thursday Night football? Should we be laying it with the
New England Patriots. But first a word from our very
own Kendra as we chat about DraftKings.
Speaker 4 (24:59):
The Favorites podcast is sponsored by Draftking Sports Book and
in partnership with DraftKings. Favorites listeners get a great offer
right now.
Speaker 3 (25:06):
New customers can bet five dollars and get three hundred
dollars back in bonus bet if your bet wins, and
three months of NBA League Pass to new customers to
get started to use promo code Favorites when signing up
with DraftKings. That's promo Code Favorites when signing up with
DraftKings for three months of NBA League Pass and three
hundred dollars back in bonus bets if your bet wins,
the crown.
Speaker 4 (25:25):
Is yours stuck.
Speaker 1 (25:27):
Before we get the Thursday Night Football. You are our
resident maction expert a couple of games tonight, give us
a pick. Explain the handicap in NFL terms.
Speaker 6 (25:37):
For tonight, we can go Western Michigan.
Speaker 5 (25:51):
I don't know if if there's still any dog prices
out there against Ohio. Ohio is they're kind of like
the current state of the Broncos in a way, and
they've had some fortunate wins. They should have lost last
week Western Michigan at home, coming off of bye. It's
a good spot. They had the better defense, and after
(26:13):
what the mac refs did to my of Ohio last week,
hopefully Ohio has some something coming to them this week.
But yeah, I like the Western Michigan defense, and then
their offense isn't great, but I think they can run
the ball here. It's a very weak Ohio defense, and
I think they're a better team overall at home. So
(26:36):
we can go with the Broncos. No, and yeah, we're
going with the Broncos against the college Broncos.
Speaker 2 (26:43):
Are you serious? You gotta love it? And Sucky got
ahead of it there.
Speaker 1 (26:49):
You got a plus one in the app now sitting
at minus one and a half over on DraftKings. If
you need to play for Tuesday Night Jets at Patriots.
Thursday Night Patriots favored by eleven and a half total,
sitting at forty three. Don't look now, but the Jets
are riding a two game winning streak. Patriots just slightly better.
They've won seven in a row. The Patriots now have
(27:12):
wins over the Bucks and the Bills, as we mentioned,
but they are riding the good fortune of one of
the easiest schedules in the NFL, and that's not going
to change here. We will give them credit though, Not
only do they have a couple of impressive wins seven
and three against the spread, so they're not just winning
these games, they are covering in the process. Garrett Wilson
is likely out three to four weeks, so that's even
(27:33):
more of a reason to not like the New York
Jets here. New England is top ten and EPA per
play on offense. On defense, they're allowing three point six
yards per carry. All the Jets want to do is
run the football. This should be a smash spot for
the New England Patriots. If it wasn't for the fact
that Thursday Night football is weird, I would probably lay
it with New England I might get there. To me,
(27:55):
it's Pats or pass backing it or benching it.
Speaker 3 (27:58):
What do you say, Kendra, I'm definitely beenching it.
Speaker 4 (28:02):
I want nothing to do with this game whatsoever. I
the Patriots in my crew. I can't.
Speaker 3 (28:07):
I can't get there, Like I can't bet another cent
on the Patriots this year. They just have absolutely decimated me.
Every time I think they're gonna fall apart, they just somehow.
Speaker 4 (28:17):
Get better and better. I don't want anything to do
with the Patriots, but I will say the Jets have
been looking sneaky good, and it's a short week.
Speaker 3 (28:26):
I still don't think the Jets are a good football team,
but I think that they're making decisions to become a
better football team. I just can't doubt this Patriots team anymore.
They've really, they've really shoved it down my throat. I
I don't know what to say anymore. I can't. I
was wrong, and that's okay.
Speaker 2 (28:41):
That's good. Do you gotta take your lumps, Stucky?
Speaker 1 (28:43):
Are you gonna roll with the dirty, disgusting dog in
this game?
Speaker 2 (28:47):
Or enough? Completely?
Speaker 5 (28:48):
I mean, I think that there might be a chance
to fade the paths sometime coming up this is not
the spot in my opinion. I mean number one, just historically,
these first time head coaches in their first Thursday game
have been really poor against the spread. I don't know
if Evan has that, but you know, because it's like
unique prep and they're not used to doing that, and
(29:10):
a lot of times their teams have come out and
gotten smacked. But I don't see how, like what is
the path for they just got to hope that this
game is weird or like you're down seventeen, you get
a backdoor touchdown. But the Jets, like you said, they
can't throw the ball. I mean they just won a
game where fields went six to eleven for fifty yards.
(29:31):
They beat the Browns because they had two kick return
They had a kick return and a punt return for
a touchdown. It's the only reason they won that game.
And then they beat the historically bad Bengals defense. I mean,
anyone can move the ball and them they were able
to run the ball there. Well, the Patriots run defense
is really good. Where you can get them a bit
is through the air, but it's not the Jets, especially
without Wilson, So I don't know how they move the
(29:53):
ball here and it's not like this Jets defense, which
is now without two of its best players, probably not
gonna I said this last week, it's probably not gonna
hurt you against the Browns offense outdoors. But even the Browns,
I mean they put up twenty that's a lot for
the Browns. The Browns usually don't get past seventeen. So
(30:14):
I mean Gabriel threw for one to seventy two touchdowns
and they ran for five yards for rush, like, but
this is the Patriots offense is on another level. So yeah,
I don't know how. I don't love like laying big
numbers in the NFL like this, but here it's all
signs going to the Patriots. I could never bet the
(30:35):
Jets here. But do you like fourteen and a half?
Speaker 2 (30:38):
This?
Speaker 1 (30:40):
This does feel like an SEC team taking on Wafford
or something like that.
Speaker 5 (30:45):
Yeah, like they just the Pats. Rundy is legit, and
even though.
Speaker 4 (30:51):
It's divisional, you still feel like you need fourteen and
a half.
Speaker 5 (30:54):
Yeah, just the matchup wise, you got Glenn early, you
don't have Wilson anymore, You've traded two of your best defenders.
I just don't see the path, Like it's just a
terrible matchup for the Jets on both sides of the ball.
And this is when you'll really miss Sauce Gardner in
(31:15):
this particular matchup. And I mean the Patriots, however they
want to move the ball, probably can. Also, the Jets
had other defensive injuries that I don't know who's gonna
play on a short week, but they had a bunch
of guys get banged up on the defensive line at linebacker.
One of their new starting cornerbacks got left the game.
So yeah, I just how do the Jets move the
(31:36):
ball here? And then I don't know how they get
enough stops to keep this close without just like they're
gonna have to get some turn now. The one thing
that could could change it is the Jets are like
then this is just one football game stuff. But the
Jets are probably the most overdue team in the history
of the NFL to get like takeaways, so like flukey
(31:58):
takeaways that could keep them in it. I think on
the season, like, do they even have an interception yet?
I believe they don't have an interception.
Speaker 4 (32:08):
That would be a crazy stat they don't.
Speaker 5 (32:09):
Have an interception.
Speaker 4 (32:11):
What are the odds for them to pick off Drake
May and.
Speaker 5 (32:14):
They're minus minus ten and turnovers. Uh, don't have an
interception on the season. It's week eleven, like, so that's
their path, Like they're gonna have to get some overdue
turnover regression. And but because I don't know how to
move the ball consistently.
Speaker 3 (32:31):
That might be my play in our barlay on Thursdays
for the Jets to pick off Drake.
Speaker 2 (32:35):
May plus one thirty six. Please don't do that to us.
Speaker 4 (32:39):
That's it.
Speaker 2 (32:40):
Yep, damn, It's like the books are ready for you.
Speaker 1 (32:45):
Let's plant our flag presented by DraftKings.
Speaker 2 (32:48):
The crown is yours.
Speaker 6 (32:53):
Shut up, I'm trying to plant my flag here.
Speaker 1 (32:55):
Okay, you're really planning your flag in that thick Kendra
get us started.
Speaker 2 (33:00):
What are you looking at?
Speaker 4 (33:01):
I had two options for this.
Speaker 3 (33:02):
I didn't know if either of you would be thinking
the same thing as me. I only have two bets
in for the week so far. I'm probably only gonna
put in four or so, so half my bets are
already in.
Speaker 2 (33:13):
But I have been discipline.
Speaker 1 (33:15):
By the way Kendrick does this every single week, I've
started seeing your betting patterns.
Speaker 2 (33:20):
Kendrew's red hot.
Speaker 1 (33:21):
By the way, So for all of you on YouTube
that talks shit every week, stick it because she's hotter
than all of us.
Speaker 2 (33:28):
So job well done by you.
Speaker 4 (33:30):
But it's discipline.
Speaker 1 (33:31):
I envy your discipline because I feel like I have
a bloated sheet every single week.
Speaker 2 (33:35):
But anyway, what are they joking at?
Speaker 3 (33:38):
I think I'm going to go with the Commanders getting
two and a half points against the Dolphins.
Speaker 4 (33:43):
This Dolphins team is just so us. I don't know where.
I guess they got a little bit of the GM bump.
Speaker 3 (33:49):
But this Commander's team is bad, but they're not as
bad as this Dolphins team. Even with the injuries the Dolphins,
I just keep expecting week after week for them to
go belly up and throw the season away because, like
I said last week, they didn't do anything to make
themselves better this season or next season. They didn't sell off,
they didn't fire the coach, they haven't benched anybody. I
(34:10):
guess you could maybe call it the Tyreek hillbump because
he's no longer a cancer on the field while he's
running around out there being a jackass. But still this
Commander's team getting points. Don't care that it's in Miami.
They just got beat what forty four to twenty two? Yeah,
oh yeah, it is in Madrid. This is the Madrid game.
But still regardless, neutral field, and you're gonna give me
(34:31):
two and a half points?
Speaker 4 (34:32):
Even better, let's get after it. I like it.
Speaker 1 (34:35):
Yeah, the I was looking at the Commanders as possible teaser,
like getting them up to eight and a half. I
do not trust the Dolphins to string together performances like this,
especially when they're not playing the underdog role. I feel
like it would be Commanders or pass for me. I
don't like these international games. This is our last one,
by the way, so we don't have to worry about
(34:55):
that moving forward once we're done with Commanders and Dolphins.
Speaker 2 (34:58):
Okay, see the.
Speaker 3 (34:59):
Terry McLaurin jokes about him wanting to just go for
a vacation, Yeah.
Speaker 2 (35:03):
Well I would.
Speaker 1 (35:04):
I'm sure he's gonna enjoy himself in Spain. He doesn't
have to worry about playing a football game.
Speaker 3 (35:08):
Because he's in Spain without the Yes, baby stuck you
what about you?
Speaker 5 (35:14):
What a miserable game?
Speaker 2 (35:15):
By the way, hopeful we never give the overseas crowd.
Good game. So well, Colts Falcons was decent.
Speaker 4 (35:22):
They deserve it. Stop taking home games away. I hate
I hate the abroad crap.
Speaker 3 (35:27):
I feel like Napoleon Dynamite when I'm just like, no,
go find your own Go find your own league, Go
find your own teams.
Speaker 4 (35:33):
Stop taking home games away.
Speaker 3 (35:34):
It takes away revenue, it takes away like jobs from
local people.
Speaker 4 (35:37):
I hate this crap abroad. Leave me alone. I don't
care if I sound walk.
Speaker 5 (35:43):
I'm gonna go. I'm gonna go with the Vikings minus
three at home. I believe it'still minus three. I like
this Bears team has been like the number one of
their defense is still horrendous, and especially about Gordon and Johnson.
They can't stop the run. They can't have you can't
really do anything. And at this Vikings defense, they will
(36:03):
get pressure, they will fluster Williams into mistakes. I just
think this is a good spot to sell on the Bears.
And if you look at the Bears, their wins, so
their last, let's just look at their last, all their wins.
This year, they beat the Cowboys, it's a really good
spot at home. Ceedee Lamb went down in that game.
Then they beat the Raiders by one. I mean they
(36:26):
got out gained by I don't know, two hundred yards
three yards per play in that game, they beat the
Commanders by one, got a couple of fumbles in that game.
We know how bad the Commanders have been this year.
They beat the Saints, they lost to the Ravens with
Tyler Huntley. Then they beat the Bengals on a walk off,
and they easily should have lost to the Bengals. Then
(36:47):
they beat the Giants. Probably should have lost that game,
neither the crazy comeback or three percent win probabilies. This
team has played such an easy schedule and then every
week someone gets hurt like they've been playing so many
backup quarterback like Dark gets hurt. Last week they get
to play Tyler Huntley. They played the Bengals with obviously
with Burrow not there. They played the Saints when you
(37:08):
know Rattler, who's since been benched. So I mean, look
at this team's schedule. I mean, since starting zero to two,
they have played nothing but clowns. For lack of better word,
I mean, look thinking about it, Raiders, Cowboys, Commanders, Saints, Bengals, Giants,
and then you know they got blown out by the
Ravens when even without Lamar. So I think this is
(37:31):
a good spot to sell the Bears Id McCarthy, even
McCarthy with he's still doesn't look great. But this Bears defense,
I mean, if the Vikings want to run it, they
should be able to do that. There's gonna be easy completions,
and I think that the Vikings can create enough chaos
with Caleb running around. I mean, Kayla's been doing this
against their run game has been very good. I'll give
(37:52):
them that, But you just watch the Bears offense with
kleb on like passing downs. It's like and he's been
playing horrendous defenses for two months. He's just bailing out
of the pocket like it's almost the same play. He'll
snap it and then he's created some big plays, some
explosive plays credits in, but again, look at the quality
of defenses and then he just bails one to eighty
(38:15):
and then he's running around for his life. So he's
not been very efficient. He's been explosive, but I'm not
sure that can work in Minnesota against this floor as defense.
So I think there's gonna be probably a lot of
negative plays. And this is a Bears defense that is
a lot worse than some might think because they just
benefited from so many turnovers and if you remove those,
(38:38):
this is a really really poor unit due to the injuries.
So yeah, I like the Vikings to bounce back. We
just said the Jets that the Bears are the anti Jets.
The Jets are minus ten in turnovers. The Bears are
plus fourteen, which is crazy.
Speaker 1 (38:52):
Bears are the only team that six and three are
better that has a negative point differential on the season.
Speaker 5 (38:58):
Yeah, so I think it's a good spot to get.
It's like a nice comfortable game for McCarthy. And the
Bears just don't have anyone who can cover the Vikings,
and I think Floras and that defense will coax Williams
into enough mistakes and negative plays that they can get
it done at home. So I think this is just
a little cheap, pretty good spot for the Vikings in
(39:21):
like close to a must win for their season in
that division.
Speaker 1 (39:24):
I am gonna go with the Texans minus seven.
Speaker 2 (39:27):
You can get this at minus one.
Speaker 1 (39:29):
Fifteen versus the Tennessee Titans under our local Titans back
or week after week. There are other bets that I
like out there. Actually already have about four in the
app right now, but.
Speaker 4 (39:41):
This is not with the Texans and their fans. That's all.
Speaker 2 (39:44):
Hih that's true. Okay, so this isn't about Tennessee. This
is about Houston.
Speaker 1 (39:48):
The line indicates that Stroud is not playing, so if
he does, we are getting ahead of the number in
a pretty drastic way. I don't usually like to tempt
fate with these injuries, especially with something as unknowable as
a concussion. But honestly, if I'm sitting there with a
minus seven on Sunday with Davis Mills as the quarterback,
I mean I'm just not gonna be that perturbed by it.
This Texans defense is elite. The Titans can't move the football.
(40:11):
They've turned the ball over thirteen times this year. Texans
defense fourth in takeaways, number one in success rate, facing
a team that's thirty second on the offensive side.
Speaker 2 (40:22):
Quarterback be damned.
Speaker 1 (40:23):
This is about the league's top defense playing the league's
worst offense. Seven points is fair, and I will take
my lumps if CJ. Stroud is announced as out again.
Our recap four they plant the flag games presented by
DraftKings Commanders plus two and a half against the Dolphins,
Vikings minus three facing the Chicago Bears and Texans minus
(40:47):
seven against the Tennessee Titans. Now for the main events,
no betting week can start without it. It is the
primer courtesy of Evan Abrams. Evan, welcome to this show.
Great job on Sunday night. What are the odds and
trends we need to be aware of before we fire away?
Speaker 7 (41:07):
Well, first of all, thank you Brandon.
Speaker 8 (41:10):
In our chat right now, someone said Davis is Mills's
mom wouldn't lay seven with him on the road. I
think that makes a ton of sense based off of
the handicap we just heard. But to answer some of
the questions stuck. I'm going to look into this further,
but I just could quickly aquery looked like rookie head coaches.
Thursday Night football is underdog six and thirty five straight
up last decade. So I loved some stuff there, but
(41:31):
really really terrible. The other one that's real good for
the Thursday night game. You mentioned no interceptions. I believe
Jets are just the second team since nineteen forty no
interceptions through nine games twenty seventeen Raiders.
Speaker 5 (41:46):
Also, I remember that question.
Speaker 7 (41:48):
Yeah, absolutely ridiculous.
Speaker 8 (41:50):
So yes, plus one thirty five terrible value, but easy bet.
I can't wait, Patriots remaining strength to schedule also absolutely ridiculous.
Speaker 7 (41:58):
You guys talked about it.
Speaker 8 (42:00):
Thirty four percent win percentage for remaining teams, Jets twice,
the Giants and the Dolphins still to come up for them.
Speaker 7 (42:07):
Pretty crazy.
Speaker 8 (42:08):
In terms of other stories, just this week, I mean
the MVP race right now, you've got six players at
ten to one or shorter. Just for reference, we haven't
seen that number in like a decade in terms of
total players ten to one or shorter entering week eleven.
So MVP rice absolutely awesome right now. We discussed it
on Sunday night, but really really fun. A lot of
(42:28):
people will talk about the Giants after firing Dable. Obviously
Callahan gets fired. They laid the egg against Vrabel and
the Patriots. But seven and a half decent number. That'd
be the biggest upset for an in season firing since
Todd Haley Romeo Crenell twenty eleven.
Speaker 7 (42:46):
With the Chiefs.
Speaker 8 (42:46):
So this would be a big number for the Giants
to come through this week. We've talked about like the
small bump, but yes, again very small.
Speaker 1 (42:55):
I read where Matt Stafford this is the first time
in his long career that he's ever been the it's
one favorite to be the MVP.
Speaker 7 (43:02):
Yeah, any point, I think that would make sense.
Speaker 8 (43:04):
I mean, also, this is the biggest week of Stafford's career,
so he's MVP favorite, and I believe for the first
time ever he can go above five hundred for his career,
because I believe he's five hundred on the dot right
now for the first time like ever in his career
because of all the Lillian's years.
Speaker 7 (43:21):
So this is a big week for his career.
Speaker 8 (43:23):
The other one that's really fun in terms of just
overall numbers this week, the Bucks off a loss have
been really, really good.
Speaker 7 (43:31):
We've talked a lot about the.
Speaker 8 (43:32):
Lions in that situation, but with Baker thirteen and four
against the spread, and then when you just go back
to the Rams, he's fifteen and four. He's covered six
in a row off a loss. Obviously big number there
with the Bills this week, but interesting nonetheless.
Speaker 5 (43:46):
Talk about a lay in an egg Yeah, unreal hungover.
I mean, I don't know if they were out all
night in Miami or just that emotional letdown in the
humidity after the Chiefs win. But man, today look just
come depletely days than a fog from the very beginning
of that game. So yeah, that becomes a much more
important game for both teams off of a loss, and
(44:10):
we'll see if the Bills bounce back at home where
they rarely rarely ever you lose, Just to.
Speaker 7 (44:17):
Be just to be clear, go into the elbow room.
Speaker 8 (44:19):
Definitely not going to come back to haunt Mike McDonald
in the future. There's no way that's going to come
back to get him.
Speaker 1 (44:26):
By the way, the Dolphins closes an eight point eight
and a half point underdog, they end up winning by seventeen,
and now they're favored in the following week. I imagine
that the trends are not in Miami's favor to cover
the spread again.
Speaker 7 (44:38):
Yeah, most likely not. I'll have some stuff in the
primer on that.
Speaker 8 (44:41):
But yeah, it's a bad spot off of a big upset,
especially when you do a drive by to the opponent's bar.
Speaker 2 (44:50):
I love it. I love the saltiness.
Speaker 1 (44:51):
And then last thing I have for you, You had a
great one on Sunday about the uniqueness of the Rams
and the Seahawks. How good these teams have been at
not just winning, but covering the spread as well. Does
that bode favor for either side here Seahawks coming in
as a two and a half point dog.
Speaker 8 (45:07):
So I'll give you a teaser to read the primer
to actually get the angle. But the thing I love
the best is that both teams seventy seven plus percent
win percentage straight up and against the spread. We haven't
seen a game week ten or later. We're both teams
seventy seven percent straight up and ats face off in
I can even find I've seen some seventy fives where
(45:28):
both teams we're winning three quarters of games. But this
is a very very unique matchup that's like forty years
in the making. So from like a covering and winning
and same division, we've had like three or four weeks
of some great games.
Speaker 1 (45:41):
And that'll do it for today's episode special thanks to
our producers David Paine and Gifford Gold, our stats guy.
Go check out the primer from Evan Abrams. The Favorites
will return next Thursday right here on the Action Network
YouTube page when we talk Week eleven best bets.
Speaker 2 (45:57):
Two days away.
Speaker 1 (45:58):
If we hand out our two Kings and a Queen parlay,
we'll see you right here on The Favorites presented by
Draft Kings four album.
Speaker 4 (46:14):
Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or
someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is
available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler
Welcome to the Favorites, presented by DraftKings. The crown is yours.
We are an Action Network podcast. I'm Brandon Kravitz and
the crew is back together on this fine Tuesday morning.
Kendra Middleton and the Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation, Stucky
is here as well. On today's episode, We've got our
plant the Flag game for week eleven. A Thursday night
(00:32):
preview that ought to be quick because that game is
kind of gross, and of course the main event Evans
Tuesday primer. Phenomenal night of football last night, a true
throwbacks looby knocker, and one that netted me some cheese
along the way, both literally and figuratively. Now, Kendra, the
touchdown props did let us down last night. You and
(00:55):
Evan handled things quite well on the Sunday night recap show.
Speaker 2 (00:59):
But what are you feel we.
Speaker 1 (01:00):
Learned from that ten to seven slugfest on ABC Slash ESPN.
Speaker 3 (01:07):
I learned that maybe these bitch ass billionaires are right.
Speaker 4 (01:11):
YouTube TV was right.
Speaker 3 (01:12):
I didn't need to watch that game last night. They
saved me, low key from having to sit down and
watch that on my couch.
Speaker 4 (01:19):
Instead.
Speaker 3 (01:20):
I made bagels and banana bread and that was a
better use of my time than really sitting there intensely
watching that game because it was ass.
Speaker 1 (01:28):
I'm a YouTube TV subscriber. I wasn't able to sit
back and watch it last night. I'm boycotting the ESPN dispute.
Eventually I will have to give in, Thankfully. I was
working a magic game last night, so I wasn't sitting
on the couch debating how I want to spend my
thirty dollars that ESPN is trying to get from us.
Speaker 3 (01:47):
But it's twenty dollars and also fun fact, you have
to go in to your account and activate it.
Speaker 4 (01:53):
You don't actually just get it.
Speaker 3 (01:55):
You have to go on your desktop and activate the
coupon you.
Speaker 1 (02:01):
Well that's but that's just for the They just give
you twenty dollars. They're not giving us ESPN. I want
the network. I don't want their money.
Speaker 2 (02:08):
Stucky. What'd you take away from last night?
Speaker 5 (02:11):
Yeah, for I was a great call by you, you
got a terrible bet by me. I mean, I don't
care about losing a bet. Things happen in a football game,
but like always want to get the best of the line,
so didn't there. It was probably my worst week of NFL.
I also, it was a trade deadline week. I know
better than the bet early Sometimes I bet the Falcons
plus six could have gotten a six and a half
if it was by six in overtime. So just some
(02:33):
terrible bets made across the board. But yeah, I thought
the Eagles were the slightly better team. I mean, no
one did anything. I mean, I can't remember the NFL
being this boring in a long long time. That's just
the bottom, not not even I'll get to that game
in Secon, but just the bottom of the league right
now is so bad and it's creating way too many
uncompetitive games. But yeah, I thought both offenses were ugly.
(02:58):
The Eagles offense still looks broken. The play calling is
not creative. They're running it too much. And then the
Packers did the same. I get that Jenkins left the game,
there was no golden I underestimated the loss of Craft
not only in the receiving game, but also what he
does in other facets. And then they lost Dobbs at
the end, and you're throwing to bo Melton too much.
(03:20):
But I thought that the Packers were just poorly coached
throughout the whole game. On offense, I mean, you have
a fourth and one. It's kind of ironic. This happened
against the Eagles, a fourth and one where you false start.
You had a long play to Christian Watson which took
away a score. They were it was an illegal formation.
(03:40):
They had an illegal formation on the fourth down on
that to end the game before they ended up getting
the ball back. But on that play, I mean the
Eagles were calling out the play. They were saying, inside zone.
You're running an inside zone fourth and one from shotgun
without your starting center in there. Get up and sneak
it or do something else and then and then you
(04:03):
have you have the floor. Who I love Brandon McManus
has done. He's I think he's three of nine from
forty plus this year. I get he was like five
yards away on the first kick, but he's not making
a sixty four yard or outdoors in Lambeau and he's bomb.
Speaker 4 (04:23):
Leg His career is sixty one.
Speaker 2 (04:26):
So yeah, that was probably in Denver in his prime though.
Speaker 4 (04:30):
Yeah.
Speaker 5 (04:31):
Yeah, and there was there was some win that was
apparently going with them, but like it swirls and I
thought that was a horrible decision. So yeah, I mean,
the thing is with the Packers right now, they have
to figure out their offense. So like, what do you
do the Eagles that basically were inviting them to run
the ball the entire game, and they obliged. There was
(04:52):
way too many early down runs and they kind of
played right. I get the the no craft and injuries
oft receiver, but there were opportunities downfield that they're whenever
they did try to throw it and they either didn't
make the player didn't do it often enough. But they
have to figure out the offense because this defense right
now is playing at a super Bowl caliber level. I mean,
(05:13):
you look at some of their losses this year. They
think they have three losses where they haven't allowed more
than two scores on the year. So like, you have
to you only allow ten points in that game at home,
I don't care about the injuries. You have to you
have to find a way to score more than seven
points at home. So yeah, they have some soul searching
(05:34):
to do. I didn't think Laflour called a great game.
So the defense is a super Bowl caliber but the
special team certainly is in right now, and then the
offense isn't and you're they're gonna have to get more
creative without Craft. Now this week, it probably won't hurt them.
You're going up against the Giants run defense, so you
can get away with all these early down runs most likely.
(05:57):
But I mean, if you want to make a real run,
this offense has to figure some things out. It will
also help when their wide receivers get healthy. But I
definitely underestimated the loss of Craft, but was disappointing just
coaching effort, I thought from the floor and the Packers
all around, and then the Eagles still have questions on offense.
But I did think I was really impressed with the
Eagles defense been a pretty average unit all year. The
(06:19):
addition of Phillips, I thought was big. I thought he
played really well, gave him, gave them some extra juice
off the edge. So I thought Roseman did a really
nice job, which usually does with the addition of Phillips.
I think he raises the floor of that defense. So
he had big win for the Eagles, is huge in
the NFC standings. And then you look like that game
(06:40):
was so much more important for the Packers because look
at their division, it's going to be an all out
warthrount and then look at the Eagles division. I mean,
the Commanders have basically quit on the season, and they
have I don't even know who they have left on
the roster. The Giants just fired their coach. I mean,
the Cowboys have a historically bad defense. It's night and
(07:01):
day when you compare the NFC East and the NFC North.
So that game was a big, big swing for the
Packers and gets the Eagles even more breathing room as
they try to go after that one seed.
Speaker 3 (07:13):
We're missing the most important, slash insane part of the evening.
This is the revenge of the touch push game. The
Packers are the people who wanted to ban the touch
push after the most after the postseason last year, and
the Eagles on the touch push go early, don't get
the call, and then a couple of plays later, the
Packers go early and they call it on the Packers.
Speaker 4 (07:36):
It's just flat out comedy comedy.
Speaker 5 (07:39):
Just did the Packers go for a fall start too?
But they didn't call up right? I don't understand why
they can't see this, Why they can't see it so obvious.
Speaker 2 (07:51):
I mean, the guys in the booth are calling it out.
Speaker 4 (07:53):
It's the band fans.
Speaker 5 (07:57):
I'm not even like half paying attention to a game.
If there's another game on another screen, I can see it,
like not even like, but you're looking right down the line.
I don't understand why I can't catch it. That might
end up being the downfall of the touchbush. I'm not
four banning plays, but if they can't officiate it correctly,
and I don't know why, I gotta ask a raf
(08:18):
why it seems so obvious that you would be able
to Yeah, that's the only thing you're looking for. You're
just looking down the line and you're seeing if anyone come.
And sometimes when the Eagles do it, it's like so obvious.
The guards are like shooting past before the balls even snap.
So I don't know why they can't get right. They
missed one on both teams.
Speaker 4 (08:34):
It's embarrassing. It's so embarrassing.
Speaker 3 (08:37):
And it's just the fact that, of course it happens
in that game, and the fans are catching onto it too,
Like you know, it's an issue when the fans are
officiating a game better than your zebras, like heard them, goodell,
what are we doing?
Speaker 2 (08:51):
Yeah?
Speaker 1 (08:52):
Pretty ugly, especially as you mentioned, in a game that
is ten to seven. We saw very little offense on
both sides to get to our main dish.
Speaker 2 (09:02):
You mentioned it, Stucky.
Speaker 1 (09:03):
The Giants fired their head coach, Brian daball is out.
They host the Packers this week, so a nice little
get right for Green Bay perhaps in store.
Speaker 2 (09:13):
First question is was it the right move?
Speaker 1 (09:16):
Day Ball has started the last three seasons two and eight,
but they had something cooking with Jackson Dart and they're
missing half of their functional players on this team. Do
you improve the move, Stucky?
Speaker 5 (09:31):
I mean yeah, I could see it. It's just the
fact that the fact that they kept I mean they
had I think I was reading it was a one
and sixty thousand chants. If you just go based on
the highest the maximum win probability that the Giants had
in the Broncos game, the Bears game, and the Cowboys game,
(09:55):
it's like a one in sixty thousand chance that they
lost all three of those games. A lot of that
has to fall back on the coach. I thought kicking
the field goal this past week was bad. Yeah, I mean,
he's he's always Pagoma, but he's like losing his mind
on the sidelines every week. So I can see why
(10:15):
a change had to be made. I could see the
argument for both sides, but he got dealt a bad
hand this year with all the injuries, and uh, he
walked into a bad situation. Was coach of the Year
his first year. It's pretty wild one went to the playoffs.
Speaker 4 (10:31):
Daniel Jones.
Speaker 1 (10:34):
Two questions. I want to I want to spin off
on this for a second. With the day ball stuff.
Jackson Dart has now been in the blue medical tent
for concussions twice.
Speaker 2 (10:44):
I wonder how much twice?
Speaker 4 (10:45):
I thought three times?
Speaker 2 (10:47):
Is it three? Okay?
Speaker 1 (10:48):
I mean I have two that are I could be
probably imprinted into my head.
Speaker 2 (10:52):
It could be three.
Speaker 1 (10:52):
But we were two very notable, the one this past
weekend and then the one where Brian Daball goes.
Speaker 2 (10:57):
Get the fuck out here. I don't want Wilson flaying quarterback.
Speaker 1 (11:01):
And then you also have the success of Daniel Jones
on the Indianapolis side, and I feel like some of
the criticism towards Brian Daball is, you know, you got
a little bit out.
Speaker 2 (11:10):
Of them, but you didn't get this. Kendra.
Speaker 1 (11:12):
Do you think either of those has anything to do
with Brian Daball getting fired, Daniel Jones success or not
keeping your quarterback healthy?
Speaker 3 (11:19):
I wouldn't say it's the not keeping your quarterback healthy
thing or the Daniel Jones thing like for sure, because
we see quarterbacks go elsewhere and succeed all the time
and their prior coaches not lose their job. For me,
I think it's not the keeping your quarterback healthy so
much beat it's the way he handled that first potential
(11:40):
concussion that he had by going in the tent, letting
Scattabo go in there.
Speaker 4 (11:44):
You can't go twenty and.
Speaker 3 (11:45):
Forty as a head coach and keep your job despite
all of the injuries. I think it was just the
easiest time for them to have an out on him.
But I wouldn't say it's that you can't keep your
quarterback healthy. It's more so just how you handled your
quarterback not being healthy and being on professional going in
the tent yelling at people. I think it was just
more of an out and they needed the reason more
(12:05):
than anything else.
Speaker 1 (12:07):
From a betable perspective, the Packers were eight point favorites
last night in the look Ahead.
Speaker 2 (12:15):
They're now sitting at seven and a half.
Speaker 4 (12:16):
I go back to the.
Speaker 3 (12:19):
Firedhead Coe Jangle, you can it's the perfect bounce back
spot for Green Bay and I do expect them to
absolutely just beat the crap out of them.
Speaker 2 (12:28):
They should.
Speaker 5 (12:29):
Whatever you might have packed ross, we don't know darts exactly.
Speaker 4 (12:35):
I want to speak Jamis. I think this is Jamis.
I will absolutely be in on this number.
Speaker 2 (12:41):
This is my teaser of the week.
Speaker 1 (12:43):
I have the Green Bay Packers down to one and
a half, Lions up to seven and a half. It
is sort of a it's a Monday Night football response here.
The Packers very much in a bounce back spot and
Lions Eagles not much separation there. The Eagles obviously have
issues winning by much, so getting the Lions a plus
(13:06):
seven and a half would feel like a gift. That
would be my way of playing into this. I will
not be playing either in a straight bet formula. What
about you, stuck.
Speaker 3 (13:13):
I think the Lions are so much better than the
Eagles right now.
Speaker 5 (13:17):
I mean the Eagles are just they just find ways.
Speaker 2 (13:20):
They find ways that is ugly up the game.
Speaker 5 (13:23):
What are they sick? They're six and one in one
possession games now like they just but they will have
a they have a half any time they play a
competent opponent, they still have like a half where they
don't score which is very concerning. But I think their
defense is playing a lot better now coming out of
the bye. I will say, and I don't know how
(13:44):
much I can take from the Lions game, like that
was one of the sad I mean you had commanders,
were guys throwing punches getting thrown out, like there was
some quid there, which was very not that they have
much left on that defense, but.
Speaker 1 (13:58):
It is dan Quinn's calling plays on defense too, so
they're making the coaching change. That's always the last line
of defense.
Speaker 5 (14:05):
Yeah, I mean that the Lions did. I I talked
about this last week about how the Lion's offense has
been in the tank for a month and they made
a change at play caller which was noteworthy. I don't know, like, Okay,
did that help things or was is the Washington defense
that bad? It could be a little bit of both.
As far as the Packers, I mean, you do have
(14:25):
to look at the INDRT, like who's going to be
healthy at wide receiver. She saw Dubs leave, Golden was hurt.
There's no craft so like just the the ceiling of
the passing attack right now is pretty low. Now they
should be able to just line up and run it
with Jacob's lot because the Giants run dye is so bad, but.
Speaker 4 (14:47):
They maybe Michael Parsons cursed. Has anybody considered this?
Speaker 2 (14:51):
I would, I would consider you for considering this, But yeah,
I don't.
Speaker 5 (14:55):
I don't want to back Ross like there is some
thing to the new coach, a new coach, and historically
it's like a little bit of a bump. It's not overwhelming,
and a lot of times that's like, hey, here's our
new wrinkles, right, and it's something that the team isn't
prepared for. Now you have a team on a short
week going on the road, facing team and new coach.
(15:16):
But if you have Russell Wilson, like you could, there's
a lot of different new wrinkles that you could do
with Dart, Like what what are you doing with Russ back?
Speaker 2 (15:25):
That guy?
Speaker 4 (15:25):
Please be Jamis Jamis? Yeah, I gives him a better chance.
Speaker 1 (15:33):
I would think, so, I mean, it can't get any worse.
Russ is so washed, but I but maybe with a
new coaching staff, that's the way they look. But day
Ball clearly had something against Jamis ever seeing the field.
Speaker 5 (15:45):
Yeah, that is something I watched for sure, because I
think I would start Jamis as well. I mean it's
just especially as a dog like you just we Russ
just doesn't have it anymore.
Speaker 4 (15:55):
James James the least athletic.
Speaker 5 (15:58):
He might throw a couple of picks, but he has
a better chance of throwing some touchdowns.
Speaker 3 (16:02):
And flank future all week in the locker room and
start Jamis.
Speaker 2 (16:07):
Yeah.
Speaker 5 (16:08):
He Ross's career ended on that officially, and that Chiefs
game when he threw into the tunnel three times.
Speaker 4 (16:17):
I forgot about that. It's like fucking somebody's down their
ball with nobody down there. It's just like vintage Ross.
Speaker 5 (16:25):
Yeah, so that I would I would go Winton too,
but that's certainly worth keeping an eye on.
Speaker 3 (16:30):
Oh god, I making fun of Russell Wilson is so easy,
but it's so fun.
Speaker 5 (16:36):
Yeah, but I agree with you Brandon that it's a
it's a Packers are definitely an intriguing teaser piece.
Speaker 1 (16:43):
Let's get to one more news item, and we've got
Thursday night football to break down as well. Plant the
flag coming up, Evans Primer Burrow back at practice. He's
not gonna play this week. They take on the Steelers.
He's eyeing a Turkey Day return. The Bengals do play
on Thanksgiving, he wants to play.
Speaker 2 (17:01):
This is wild.
Speaker 1 (17:03):
I'm not saying it's the greatest bet in the world,
but perhaps worth the slightest sprinkle. The Bengals right now
are one twenty to one to win the AFC. The Ravens,
who are one game in front of them, are plus
six point fifty. Now, obviously, if we're playing prediction mode,
of which do you expect to win the AFC, if
(17:23):
you had to pick one, we'd all pick the Ravens.
But the price is wildly different. Any interest here as
crazy as it is stucky.
Speaker 5 (17:34):
No, I mean that defense isn't getting fixed, and then
you're gonna burrow like we've seen Burrow. It's like I
bought some Ravens future and division when at the bottom
before the Miami game, and I mean before the Bears game,
(17:54):
and luckily Tyler Huntley won that game. But I don't
like to see the Barrows potentially coming back for that week.
That's when he would have to come back Thanksgiving. Otherwise
his season would be over because they just opened his window.
But they played the Ravens twice in three weeks. But
I mean, like right now, the offense isn't the problem,
(18:15):
like how much more can Burrow do? Like it's it's
the defense, it's the offensive line. But like they just
they've lost games over the past two weeks where they
scored thirty eight and forty two points and they played
the Jets and the Bears. These aren't like the number
one offenses in the league. So I just don't think
(18:38):
that they can with that defense. And then you have
to remember, I mean, they only they have three wins
right now. They're gonna be dogs at the Steelers, they
get the Pats, and they're at the Ravens, they're at
the Bills or the Ravens. Again, that's gonna be tough
because The're gonna have to go on a run like
now before Burrow gets back. And then you also have
to remember, like in the past, when Burrows come back
(19:00):
or I should say just like started the season, he's
not this year, but in prior seasons he's usually dealt
with an injury and like hasn't played in the preseason
or like hasn't been practicing, And then you saw those
first couple of games that it takes them some time
to get going. So number one, we don't know the
rust and we don't know like it will be one
(19:22):
hundred percent healthy. So I mean, if you wanted to
throw some couchs change on it, I wouldn't.
Speaker 2 (19:26):
It's not like I mean two bucks on that toy.
Speaker 5 (19:29):
I would. I can't get too mad at you, but
it's just the defense. Like I just can't see them
ever finding out a way to get enough stops because
and like, yeah, Barrow coming back is a boost, it's
not like scoring a week.
Speaker 1 (19:45):
And the argument for whether it's them or or anybody
where you're getting shorter odds than one that's probably just
going to be a waste of your time is that
the AFC is kind of sketchy this year. I do
feel like now would be a good time. That's the
wildest bet that you can make among teams that have
any sort of opportunity to make it out of the conference.
(20:05):
But I do think right now is a good chance
to look at the board over on DraftKings and see
is there somebody that you believe in that you feel
like you're getting a long number on Kendra, I'm gonna
throw some at you. Tell me which bet you'd be
willing to make. This is just a gut reaction doesn't
mean that you have to go placing it in the app.
Jags sixty to one, not expecting a guess on that,
(20:27):
Chargers eleven to one, Patriots seven to one, the Colts
are plus four to twenty five. Do any of those
sound intriguing as far as just simply making it out
of the conference.
Speaker 4 (20:40):
Probably the Chargers. I have a Chargers.
Speaker 3 (20:42):
Bet like plus one fifty one twenty something like that
preseason for them to make the playoffs. So I've really
been on the Chargers bandwagon for a minute, and I
don't think I'm ready to get off of it yet.
My only issue is that justin Herbert in the postseason,
absolute joke artist, give clutch geen.
Speaker 4 (21:01):
That's my issue. You can get he can get you there.
I don't.
Speaker 3 (21:04):
I don't know how far he can get you in
the postseason. That's my big issue with him. But probably
the Chargers. I get that everybody and their mom loves
the Patriots right now, especially up here, like and deservingly
so they.
Speaker 1 (21:14):
I can only imagine what sportstock radio is like in
your area.
Speaker 3 (21:17):
Oh my god, they deserve all their flowers right now.
But there's no way they stay this healthy. There's no
way this trajectory continues. They just don't have the talent,
Like you can stay healthy and that can get you
so far. And yes, Drake May is incredible, Like injury
come for all of us, and when that happens to them,
like they just don't have the depth at all to
back up anybody. Like God forbid, one person goes down,
(21:40):
They're they're obliterated. I just I can't get behind the
Patriots of those options. For me, I have to continue
to ride my Chargers bandwagon. Even though Lad McConkie is
still in jail.
Speaker 1 (21:52):
Yeah, you know, he's looked good, but maybe he'll break
out this week.
Speaker 2 (21:56):
He's dead to me, he's reached dead loss.
Speaker 1 (21:59):
So we're beyond bet jail. We are now in bet
death with lad McConkie.
Speaker 3 (22:03):
Yeah, me and me and Ladd McConkie were he's he's
halfway in the grave.
Speaker 1 (22:08):
For me, it's six feet under mine would be the
Texans at thirty five to one. If you have the
best defense in the NFL. Well, I know it's not
pretty thirty five to one for the best defense in
the AFC. They just shut teams down in the postseason.
Speaker 2 (22:22):
They could get that.
Speaker 4 (22:23):
I don't even think they're going to make it out
of no I mean.
Speaker 2 (22:25):
They'd have to make the playoffs first.
Speaker 5 (22:26):
But we're about to get to the one case I
will make for the Patriots, though, just I'll say it
is that the Chargers, I just I don't know if
they can go on a run with their offensive line
the current state of it. We'll see. But the one
thing I'll say about the Patriots, like what happened this weekend.
(22:46):
It was huge for them and their chances at getting
the one seed. And I mean, you got Denver as
the Chiefs coming up a couple of times this week
or in the next month, and the Patriots now eight
and two. They've had one of these schedules, but guess what,
their schedule doesn't get much more difficult. The Bills lost,
(23:07):
and that there are two games ahead with one game
in hand, and there's a good chance that the Patriots
are gonna be right there for the one seed, which
is obviously massive. And then you get that highly coveted
by and right now it's I mean, you look at
that game on Sunday from an efficiency standpoint, wasn't great.
But every week it's Drake May and that deep ball
(23:31):
is like a cheap code for this offense, and he
can continues to play extremely well. But like they have
the Jets at home this week, and the Bengals, then
the Giants.
Speaker 1 (23:42):
And their schedule has been so soft, and it just
continues to get softer.
Speaker 5 (23:46):
Yeah it might, but it might save them a game,
and it might give them home field, and.
Speaker 1 (23:50):
They do have some impressive wins, and beating the Bucks
is nothing to sneeze at.
Speaker 2 (23:53):
They got to the win again, you have to.
Speaker 5 (23:56):
Give them credit. But yeah, it's May is May has
played really well and that this weekend did a lot
for their potential to get that one seat and give
them breathing room in the division as well.
Speaker 4 (24:10):
Are we buying his MVP odds?
Speaker 3 (24:12):
I know that at the beginning of the season they're
like eighty or ninety to one or something outrageous like that,
And now he's I don't know if it's him or
Stafford right now, probably him.
Speaker 1 (24:19):
Stafford is the favorite as it stands right now, I
would just lay a bet on Jonathan Taylor and hope
that the narrative gets so loud around him that we
actually go anti quarterback here as far as the number goes.
Speaker 2 (24:35):
I want to see it.
Speaker 4 (24:35):
I just want to I wanted to not be a
quarterback award.
Speaker 3 (24:39):
I just if they didn't give it a saque last year,
it's hard for me to get there in my brain.
Speaker 2 (24:44):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (24:44):
Maybe maybe maybe that shook uh, maybe that shook some
people into thinking maybe we should get start giving this
to a running back. About to take a look at
Thursday Night football? Should we be laying it with the
New England Patriots. But first a word from our very
own Kendra as we chat about DraftKings.
Speaker 4 (24:59):
The Favorites podcast is sponsored by Draftking Sports Book and
in partnership with DraftKings. Favorites listeners get a great offer
right now.
Speaker 3 (25:06):
New customers can bet five dollars and get three hundred
dollars back in bonus bet if your bet wins, and
three months of NBA League Pass to new customers to
get started to use promo code Favorites when signing up
with DraftKings. That's promo Code Favorites when signing up with
DraftKings for three months of NBA League Pass and three
hundred dollars back in bonus bets if your bet wins,
the crown.
Speaker 4 (25:25):
Is yours stuck.
Speaker 1 (25:27):
Before we get the Thursday Night Football. You are our
resident maction expert a couple of games tonight, give us
a pick. Explain the handicap in NFL terms.
Speaker 6 (25:37):
For tonight, we can go Western Michigan.
Speaker 5 (25:51):
I don't know if if there's still any dog prices
out there against Ohio. Ohio is they're kind of like
the current state of the Broncos in a way, and
they've had some fortunate wins. They should have lost last
week Western Michigan at home, coming off of bye. It's
a good spot. They had the better defense, and after
(26:13):
what the mac refs did to my of Ohio last week,
hopefully Ohio has some something coming to them this week.
But yeah, I like the Western Michigan defense, and then
their offense isn't great, but I think they can run
the ball here. It's a very weak Ohio defense, and
I think they're a better team overall at home. So
(26:36):
we can go with the Broncos. No, and yeah, we're
going with the Broncos against the college Broncos.
Speaker 2 (26:43):
Are you serious? You gotta love it? And Sucky got
ahead of it there.
Speaker 1 (26:49):
You got a plus one in the app now sitting
at minus one and a half over on DraftKings. If
you need to play for Tuesday Night Jets at Patriots.
Thursday Night Patriots favored by eleven and a half total,
sitting at forty three. Don't look now, but the Jets
are riding a two game winning streak. Patriots just slightly better.
They've won seven in a row. The Patriots now have
(27:12):
wins over the Bucks and the Bills, as we mentioned,
but they are riding the good fortune of one of
the easiest schedules in the NFL, and that's not going
to change here. We will give them credit though, Not
only do they have a couple of impressive wins seven
and three against the spread, so they're not just winning
these games, they are covering in the process. Garrett Wilson
is likely out three to four weeks, so that's even
(27:33):
more of a reason to not like the New York
Jets here. New England is top ten and EPA per
play on offense. On defense, they're allowing three point six
yards per carry. All the Jets want to do is
run the football. This should be a smash spot for
the New England Patriots. If it wasn't for the fact
that Thursday Night football is weird, I would probably lay
it with New England I might get there. To me,
(27:55):
it's Pats or pass backing it or benching it.
Speaker 3 (27:58):
What do you say, Kendra, I'm definitely beenching it.
Speaker 4 (28:02):
I want nothing to do with this game whatsoever. I
the Patriots in my crew. I can't.
Speaker 3 (28:07):
I can't get there, Like I can't bet another cent
on the Patriots this year. They just have absolutely decimated me.
Every time I think they're gonna fall apart, they just somehow.
Speaker 4 (28:17):
Get better and better. I don't want anything to do
with the Patriots, but I will say the Jets have
been looking sneaky good, and it's a short week.
Speaker 3 (28:26):
I still don't think the Jets are a good football team,
but I think that they're making decisions to become a
better football team. I just can't doubt this Patriots team anymore.
They've really, they've really shoved it down my throat. I
I don't know what to say anymore. I can't. I
was wrong, and that's okay.
Speaker 2 (28:41):
That's good. Do you gotta take your lumps, Stucky?
Speaker 1 (28:43):
Are you gonna roll with the dirty, disgusting dog in
this game?
Speaker 2 (28:47):
Or enough? Completely?
Speaker 5 (28:48):
I mean, I think that there might be a chance
to fade the paths sometime coming up this is not
the spot in my opinion. I mean number one, just historically,
these first time head coaches in their first Thursday game
have been really poor against the spread. I don't know
if Evan has that, but you know, because it's like
unique prep and they're not used to doing that, and
(29:10):
a lot of times their teams have come out and
gotten smacked. But I don't see how, like what is
the path for they just got to hope that this
game is weird or like you're down seventeen, you get
a backdoor touchdown. But the Jets, like you said, they
can't throw the ball. I mean they just won a
game where fields went six to eleven for fifty yards.
(29:31):
They beat the Browns because they had two kick return
They had a kick return and a punt return for
a touchdown. It's the only reason they won that game.
And then they beat the historically bad Bengals defense. I mean,
anyone can move the ball and them they were able
to run the ball there. Well, the Patriots run defense
is really good. Where you can get them a bit
is through the air, but it's not the Jets, especially
without Wilson, So I don't know how they move the
(29:53):
ball here and it's not like this Jets defense, which
is now without two of its best players, probably not
gonna I said this last week, it's probably not gonna
hurt you against the Browns offense outdoors. But even the Browns,
I mean they put up twenty that's a lot for
the Browns. The Browns usually don't get past seventeen. So
(30:14):
I mean Gabriel threw for one to seventy two touchdowns
and they ran for five yards for rush, like, but
this is the Patriots offense is on another level. So yeah,
I don't know how. I don't love like laying big
numbers in the NFL like this, but here it's all
signs going to the Patriots. I could never bet the
(30:35):
Jets here. But do you like fourteen and a half?
Speaker 2 (30:38):
This?
Speaker 1 (30:40):
This does feel like an SEC team taking on Wafford
or something like that.
Speaker 5 (30:45):
Yeah, like they just the Pats. Rundy is legit, and
even though.
Speaker 4 (30:51):
It's divisional, you still feel like you need fourteen and
a half.
Speaker 5 (30:54):
Yeah, just the matchup wise, you got Glenn early, you
don't have Wilson anymore, You've traded two of your best defenders.
I just don't see the path, Like it's just a
terrible matchup for the Jets on both sides of the ball.
And this is when you'll really miss Sauce Gardner in
(31:15):
this particular matchup. And I mean the Patriots, however they
want to move the ball, probably can. Also, the Jets
had other defensive injuries that I don't know who's gonna
play on a short week, but they had a bunch
of guys get banged up on the defensive line at linebacker.
One of their new starting cornerbacks got left the game.
So yeah, I just how do the Jets move the
(31:36):
ball here? And then I don't know how they get
enough stops to keep this close without just like they're
gonna have to get some turn now. The one thing
that could could change it is the Jets are like
then this is just one football game stuff. But the
Jets are probably the most overdue team in the history
of the NFL to get like takeaways, so like flukey
(31:58):
takeaways that could keep them in it. I think on
the season, like, do they even have an interception yet?
I believe they don't have an interception.
Speaker 4 (32:08):
That would be a crazy stat they don't.
Speaker 5 (32:09):
Have an interception.
Speaker 4 (32:11):
What are the odds for them to pick off Drake
May and.
Speaker 5 (32:14):
They're minus minus ten and turnovers. Uh, don't have an
interception on the season. It's week eleven, like, so that's
their path, Like they're gonna have to get some overdue
turnover regression. And but because I don't know how to
move the ball consistently.
Speaker 3 (32:31):
That might be my play in our barlay on Thursdays
for the Jets to pick off Drake.
Speaker 2 (32:35):
May plus one thirty six. Please don't do that to us.
Speaker 4 (32:39):
That's it.
Speaker 2 (32:40):
Yep, damn, It's like the books are ready for you.
Speaker 1 (32:45):
Let's plant our flag presented by DraftKings.
Speaker 2 (32:48):
The crown is yours.
Speaker 6 (32:53):
Shut up, I'm trying to plant my flag here.
Speaker 1 (32:55):
Okay, you're really planning your flag in that thick Kendra
get us started.
Speaker 2 (33:00):
What are you looking at?
Speaker 4 (33:01):
I had two options for this.
Speaker 3 (33:02):
I didn't know if either of you would be thinking
the same thing as me. I only have two bets
in for the week so far. I'm probably only gonna
put in four or so, so half my bets are
already in.
Speaker 2 (33:13):
But I have been discipline.
Speaker 1 (33:15):
By the way Kendrick does this every single week, I've
started seeing your betting patterns.
Speaker 2 (33:20):
Kendrew's red hot.
Speaker 1 (33:21):
By the way, So for all of you on YouTube
that talks shit every week, stick it because she's hotter
than all of us.
Speaker 2 (33:28):
So job well done by you.
Speaker 4 (33:30):
But it's discipline.
Speaker 1 (33:31):
I envy your discipline because I feel like I have
a bloated sheet every single week.
Speaker 2 (33:35):
But anyway, what are they joking at?
Speaker 3 (33:38):
I think I'm going to go with the Commanders getting
two and a half points against the Dolphins.
Speaker 4 (33:43):
This Dolphins team is just so us. I don't know where.
I guess they got a little bit of the GM bump.
Speaker 3 (33:49):
But this Commander's team is bad, but they're not as
bad as this Dolphins team. Even with the injuries the Dolphins,
I just keep expecting week after week for them to
go belly up and throw the season away because, like
I said last week, they didn't do anything to make
themselves better this season or next season. They didn't sell off,
they didn't fire the coach, they haven't benched anybody. I
(34:10):
guess you could maybe call it the Tyreek hillbump because
he's no longer a cancer on the field while he's
running around out there being a jackass. But still this
Commander's team getting points. Don't care that it's in Miami.
They just got beat what forty four to twenty two? Yeah,
oh yeah, it is in Madrid. This is the Madrid game.
But still regardless, neutral field, and you're gonna give me
(34:31):
two and a half points?
Speaker 4 (34:32):
Even better, let's get after it. I like it.
Speaker 1 (34:35):
Yeah, the I was looking at the Commanders as possible teaser,
like getting them up to eight and a half. I
do not trust the Dolphins to string together performances like this,
especially when they're not playing the underdog role. I feel
like it would be Commanders or pass for me. I
don't like these international games. This is our last one,
by the way, so we don't have to worry about
(34:55):
that moving forward once we're done with Commanders and Dolphins.
Speaker 2 (34:58):
Okay, see the.
Speaker 3 (34:59):
Terry McLaurin jokes about him wanting to just go for
a vacation, Yeah.
Speaker 2 (35:03):
Well I would.
Speaker 1 (35:04):
I'm sure he's gonna enjoy himself in Spain. He doesn't
have to worry about playing a football game.
Speaker 3 (35:08):
Because he's in Spain without the Yes, baby stuck you
what about you?
Speaker 5 (35:14):
What a miserable game?
Speaker 2 (35:15):
By the way, hopeful we never give the overseas crowd.
Good game. So well, Colts Falcons was decent.
Speaker 4 (35:22):
They deserve it. Stop taking home games away. I hate
I hate the abroad crap.
Speaker 3 (35:27):
I feel like Napoleon Dynamite when I'm just like, no,
go find your own Go find your own league, Go
find your own teams.
Speaker 4 (35:33):
Stop taking home games away.
Speaker 3 (35:34):
It takes away revenue, it takes away like jobs from
local people.
Speaker 4 (35:37):
I hate this crap abroad. Leave me alone. I don't
care if I sound walk.
Speaker 5 (35:43):
I'm gonna go. I'm gonna go with the Vikings minus
three at home. I believe it'still minus three. I like
this Bears team has been like the number one of
their defense is still horrendous, and especially about Gordon and Johnson.
They can't stop the run. They can't have you can't
really do anything. And at this Vikings defense, they will
(36:03):
get pressure, they will fluster Williams into mistakes. I just
think this is a good spot to sell on the Bears.
And if you look at the Bears, their wins, so
their last, let's just look at their last, all their wins.
This year, they beat the Cowboys, it's a really good
spot at home. Ceedee Lamb went down in that game.
Then they beat the Raiders by one. I mean they
(36:26):
got out gained by I don't know, two hundred yards
three yards per play in that game, they beat the
Commanders by one, got a couple of fumbles in that game.
We know how bad the Commanders have been this year.
They beat the Saints, they lost to the Ravens with
Tyler Huntley. Then they beat the Bengals on a walk off,
and they easily should have lost to the Bengals. Then
(36:47):
they beat the Giants. Probably should have lost that game,
neither the crazy comeback or three percent win probabilies. This
team has played such an easy schedule and then every
week someone gets hurt like they've been playing so many
backup quarterback like Dark gets hurt. Last week they get
to play Tyler Huntley. They played the Bengals with obviously
with Burrow not there. They played the Saints when you
(37:08):
know Rattler, who's since been benched. So I mean, look
at this team's schedule. I mean, since starting zero to two,
they have played nothing but clowns. For lack of better word,
I mean, look thinking about it, Raiders, Cowboys, Commanders, Saints, Bengals, Giants,
and then you know they got blown out by the
Ravens when even without Lamar. So I think this is
(37:31):
a good spot to sell the Bears Id McCarthy, even
McCarthy with he's still doesn't look great. But this Bears defense,
I mean, if the Vikings want to run it, they
should be able to do that. There's gonna be easy completions,
and I think that the Vikings can create enough chaos
with Caleb running around. I mean, Kayla's been doing this
against their run game has been very good. I'll give
(37:52):
them that, But you just watch the Bears offense with
kleb on like passing downs. It's like and he's been
playing horrendous defenses for two months. He's just bailing out
of the pocket like it's almost the same play. He'll
snap it and then he's created some big plays, some
explosive plays credits in, but again, look at the quality
of defenses and then he just bails one to eighty
(38:15):
and then he's running around for his life. So he's
not been very efficient. He's been explosive, but I'm not
sure that can work in Minnesota against this floor as defense.
So I think there's gonna be probably a lot of
negative plays. And this is a Bears defense that is
a lot worse than some might think because they just
benefited from so many turnovers and if you remove those,
(38:38):
this is a really really poor unit due to the injuries.
So yeah, I like the Vikings to bounce back. We
just said the Jets that the Bears are the anti Jets.
The Jets are minus ten in turnovers. The Bears are
plus fourteen, which is crazy.
Speaker 1 (38:52):
Bears are the only team that six and three are
better that has a negative point differential on the season.
Speaker 5 (38:58):
Yeah, so I think it's a good spot to get.
It's like a nice comfortable game for McCarthy. And the
Bears just don't have anyone who can cover the Vikings,
and I think Floras and that defense will coax Williams
into enough mistakes and negative plays that they can get
it done at home. So I think this is just
a little cheap, pretty good spot for the Vikings in
(39:21):
like close to a must win for their season in
that division.
Speaker 1 (39:24):
I am gonna go with the Texans minus seven.
Speaker 2 (39:27):
You can get this at minus one.
Speaker 1 (39:29):
Fifteen versus the Tennessee Titans under our local Titans back
or week after week. There are other bets that I
like out there. Actually already have about four in the
app right now, but.
Speaker 4 (39:41):
This is not with the Texans and their fans. That's all.
Speaker 2 (39:44):
Hih that's true. Okay, so this isn't about Tennessee. This
is about Houston.
Speaker 1 (39:48):
The line indicates that Stroud is not playing, so if
he does, we are getting ahead of the number in
a pretty drastic way. I don't usually like to tempt
fate with these injuries, especially with something as unknowable as
a concussion. But honestly, if I'm sitting there with a
minus seven on Sunday with Davis Mills as the quarterback,
I mean I'm just not gonna be that perturbed by it.
This Texans defense is elite. The Titans can't move the football.
(40:11):
They've turned the ball over thirteen times this year. Texans
defense fourth in takeaways, number one in success rate, facing
a team that's thirty second on the offensive side.
Speaker 2 (40:22):
Quarterback be damned.
Speaker 1 (40:23):
This is about the league's top defense playing the league's
worst offense. Seven points is fair, and I will take
my lumps if CJ. Stroud is announced as out again.
Our recap four they plant the flag games presented by
DraftKings Commanders plus two and a half against the Dolphins,
Vikings minus three facing the Chicago Bears and Texans minus
(40:47):
seven against the Tennessee Titans. Now for the main events,
no betting week can start without it. It is the
primer courtesy of Evan Abrams. Evan, welcome to this show.
Great job on Sunday night. What are the odds and
trends we need to be aware of before we fire away?
Speaker 7 (41:07):
Well, first of all, thank you Brandon.
Speaker 8 (41:10):
In our chat right now, someone said Davis is Mills's
mom wouldn't lay seven with him on the road. I
think that makes a ton of sense based off of
the handicap we just heard. But to answer some of
the questions stuck. I'm going to look into this further,
but I just could quickly aquery looked like rookie head coaches.
Thursday Night football is underdog six and thirty five straight
up last decade. So I loved some stuff there, but
(41:31):
really really terrible. The other one that's real good for
the Thursday night game. You mentioned no interceptions. I believe
Jets are just the second team since nineteen forty no
interceptions through nine games twenty seventeen Raiders.
Speaker 5 (41:46):
Also, I remember that question.
Speaker 7 (41:48):
Yeah, absolutely ridiculous.
Speaker 8 (41:50):
So yes, plus one thirty five terrible value, but easy bet.
I can't wait, Patriots remaining strength to schedule also absolutely ridiculous.
Speaker 7 (41:58):
You guys talked about it.
Speaker 8 (42:00):
Thirty four percent win percentage for remaining teams, Jets twice,
the Giants and the Dolphins still to come up for them.
Speaker 7 (42:07):
Pretty crazy.
Speaker 8 (42:08):
In terms of other stories, just this week, I mean
the MVP race right now, you've got six players at
ten to one or shorter. Just for reference, we haven't
seen that number in like a decade in terms of
total players ten to one or shorter entering week eleven.
So MVP rice absolutely awesome right now. We discussed it
on Sunday night, but really really fun. A lot of
(42:28):
people will talk about the Giants after firing Dable. Obviously
Callahan gets fired. They laid the egg against Vrabel and
the Patriots. But seven and a half decent number. That'd
be the biggest upset for an in season firing since
Todd Haley Romeo Crenell twenty eleven.
Speaker 7 (42:46):
With the Chiefs.
Speaker 8 (42:46):
So this would be a big number for the Giants
to come through this week. We've talked about like the
small bump, but yes, again very small.
Speaker 1 (42:55):
I read where Matt Stafford this is the first time
in his long career that he's ever been the it's
one favorite to be the MVP.
Speaker 7 (43:02):
Yeah, any point, I think that would make sense.
Speaker 8 (43:04):
I mean, also, this is the biggest week of Stafford's career,
so he's MVP favorite, and I believe for the first
time ever he can go above five hundred for his career,
because I believe he's five hundred on the dot right
now for the first time like ever in his career
because of all the Lillian's years.
Speaker 7 (43:21):
So this is a big week for his career.
Speaker 8 (43:23):
The other one that's really fun in terms of just
overall numbers this week, the Bucks off a loss have
been really, really good.
Speaker 7 (43:31):
We've talked a lot about the.
Speaker 8 (43:32):
Lions in that situation, but with Baker thirteen and four
against the spread, and then when you just go back
to the Rams, he's fifteen and four. He's covered six
in a row off a loss. Obviously big number there
with the Bills this week, but interesting nonetheless.
Speaker 5 (43:46):
Talk about a lay in an egg Yeah, unreal hungover.
I mean, I don't know if they were out all
night in Miami or just that emotional letdown in the
humidity after the Chiefs win. But man, today look just
come depletely days than a fog from the very beginning
of that game. So yeah, that becomes a much more
important game for both teams off of a loss, and
(44:10):
we'll see if the Bills bounce back at home where
they rarely rarely ever you lose, Just to.
Speaker 7 (44:17):
Be just to be clear, go into the elbow room.
Speaker 8 (44:19):
Definitely not going to come back to haunt Mike McDonald
in the future. There's no way that's going to come
back to get him.
Speaker 1 (44:26):
By the way, the Dolphins closes an eight point eight
and a half point underdog, they end up winning by seventeen,
and now they're favored in the following week. I imagine
that the trends are not in Miami's favor to cover
the spread again.
Speaker 7 (44:38):
Yeah, most likely not. I'll have some stuff in the
primer on that.
Speaker 8 (44:41):
But yeah, it's a bad spot off of a big upset,
especially when you do a drive by to the opponent's bar.
Speaker 2 (44:50):
I love it. I love the saltiness.
Speaker 1 (44:51):
And then last thing I have for you, You had a
great one on Sunday about the uniqueness of the Rams
and the Seahawks. How good these teams have been at
not just winning, but covering the spread as well. Does
that bode favor for either side here Seahawks coming in
as a two and a half point dog.
Speaker 8 (45:07):
So I'll give you a teaser to read the primer
to actually get the angle. But the thing I love
the best is that both teams seventy seven plus percent
win percentage straight up and against the spread. We haven't
seen a game week ten or later. We're both teams
seventy seven percent straight up and ats face off in
I can even find I've seen some seventy fives where
(45:28):
both teams we're winning three quarters of games. But this
is a very very unique matchup that's like forty years
in the making. So from like a covering and winning
and same division, we've had like three or four weeks
of some great games.
Speaker 1 (45:41):
And that'll do it for today's episode special thanks to
our producers David Paine and Gifford Gold, our stats guy.
Go check out the primer from Evan Abrams. The Favorites
will return next Thursday right here on the Action Network
YouTube page when we talk Week eleven best bets.
Speaker 2 (45:57):
Two days away.
Speaker 1 (45:58):
If we hand out our two Kings and a Queen parlay,
we'll see you right here on The Favorites presented by
Draft Kings four album.
Speaker 4 (46:14):
Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or
someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is
available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler
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