October 28, 2025 • 34 mins
The Favorites is back for a look at NFL Week 9! Action Network experts Stuckey, Kendra Middleton and Brandon Kravitz get in the weeds early as favorites in the NFL went 11-2 last week. Will that trend continue? What injury news should you wait on and what can you jump in on now? They each plant their flag on a game in NFL Week 9 and we get some nuggets from the weekly NFL Primer courtesy of Action Director of Research Evan Abrams, delivering everything needed to start digging into the betting week in the NFL.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:09):
Welcome to the Favorites, presented by DraftKings. The Crown is yours.
We are an Action Network podcast. I'm Brandon Kravitz and
the crew is back on this fine Tuesday morning. Kendra Middleton,
the Prime Minister Stuckey. On today's episode, We've got our
plant the Flag. Game of the week for Week nine
in the NFL, which, please God, be better than Week eight.
(00:30):
Thursday Night Football Preview, a breakdown of the top storylines
in terms of the betting perspective, and of course, the
main event Evans Primer coming up at the end of
the episode.
Speaker 2 (00:39):
Be sure to stick around for that. We had an
eighteen inning game in baseball last night.
Speaker 1 (00:44):
The sports equinox was equinoxing and Kendra's back from Scotland.
Speaker 2 (00:49):
Kendra, how was your trip overseas?
Speaker 3 (00:52):
It was good.
Speaker 4 (00:53):
I was glad to have the break. I'm ready to
grind through the Super Bowl, though. Oh I didn't see
the Lockness Monster, I didn't learn how to play bagpipes.
And I did figure out that they don't wear underwear
under kilts at all.
Speaker 3 (01:06):
No one Dei's they freeball that shit.
Speaker 1 (01:09):
I always I always sort of assumed what was the
most fun thing you did while you were over there.
Speaker 3 (01:15):
Ooh, good question. Most fun thing.
Speaker 4 (01:19):
I am not a huge history person, but I really
enjoyed learning about the Mary Queen of Scott's situation, how
that there was like that giant power struggle, and I
also got to see a bunch of the Harry Potter
graves and how there was like a dog that basically protected.
Speaker 3 (01:36):
Edinburgh for a while.
Speaker 4 (01:38):
I'm gonna go with the dog probably, but lots of
lots of fun things.
Speaker 1 (01:42):
Okay, we'll get a maybe you'll get a breakdown video
as well on the social channels. Not a horrible idea, Stucky.
You want to give us a recap of Monday Night
football twenty eight to seven. The commander is not able
to get it done for us.
Speaker 5 (01:55):
Yeah, I did miss their chances early and then died late.
I mean, they'd five trips inside the forty first four
trips inside of the forty zero points and you can't
do that against the Chiefs. They also went zero of
two on fourth downs. Chiefs went two of two and
then the second half was all Chiefs dominant second half
by Kansas City washing them more injuries. That team is
(02:20):
just decimated. McLaurin didn't finish. They lost their left they
lost Tunsil, they lost another defensive lineman. They're just in
rough shape. But yeah, they couldn't take advantage early. They
came out hair on fire and just couldn't take advantage.
There was a fumble that they couldn't pick up which
was a huge turning point, and a couple fourth downs.
(02:43):
So yeah, I will say the Chiefs are playing their
offenses on fire, but I will say the team has
been pretty fortunate overall. They have nine fumbles on the year,
they've recovered all of them. They are fourteen of seventeen
on fourth down. This is a non sneak team eighty
(03:05):
three percent. That's getting up to like that's like Washington
Territory last year opponents are four of sixteen on fourth
down twenty five percent. So there might be some And
that's basically what these football games come down to, turnovers,
fourth downs, Right it's usually like five or six plays
that will decide a game and or cover, and the
(03:27):
Chiefs have been getting those plays. But they're also their
offense right now is looks pretty unstoppable.
Speaker 4 (03:32):
How different do we think that game is if Jaden plays,
Because I definitely think it's a lot different of the game.
Speaker 5 (03:37):
I mean, Mariotta was fine in the first half, they
just couldn't They turned it over. There was a throwoff
Deebo's helmet that ended in an interception. The fourth down
play calls were bizarre. I thought there was a.
Speaker 3 (03:50):
Bad terrible what's that.
Speaker 4 (03:52):
I didn't think his decisioning was good whatsoever? And he
was slow to make them.
Speaker 5 (03:56):
Yeah, second half it was. It was especially bad. But
there was a spot on a fourth down that was
awful that took points off the board.
Speaker 3 (04:03):
But umpires also going in the favor of the Chiefs.
That was a terrible spot on that. What is the
point of that?
Speaker 4 (04:10):
I was in I was watching that game in the
shower because I have like a thing I can put
my phone on the wall in the shower so I
can watch games and ESPN while I washed my hair.
I was literally screaming like no, in my shower.
Speaker 5 (04:21):
Yeah, it wasn't even close, you Like, I got up
by a half yard and they marked it a half
yard short. That was very bizarre. But now it's it's
on to week ten or week nine, and there are
lots and lots of injuries to track.
Speaker 1 (04:39):
As per usual, let's get to our quick three, our
top three takes our storylines. Heading into Week nine, the
Pats and the Broncos have each won five straight games,
the Patriots five and zero against the spread in those
five the Broncos are three and two Ats within that
five game stretch. But who are we buying more stock
(05:01):
in right now? Between the two hottest teams in the NFL? Kendrey,
you are our resident Patriots experts? Are we all in
on this team? They just look so good, so fluid
on offense. Rabel is a phenomenal coach. Hard not to
buy stock here. Trees don't grow to the sky, but
(05:21):
they have it Atlanta this week, and Atlanta looks like
they are on major fraud alert.
Speaker 4 (05:26):
Yeah, it's tough because the Patriots not only have, in
my opinion, probably the easiest schedule in the NFL, but
as far as luck being healthy at this point in
the season, they're probably the healthiest team in the league
right now. And I get that Will Campbell's not gonna
have to go up against Miles Garrett every week. Stefon
Diggs is playing at a level people didn't expect him to.
(05:46):
A lot of people, including myself, were wondering what Drake
May was going to look like this year, but it
looks like him and Josh McDaniels are forehead kissing each
other every night before bed. Everything is honey Dory there.
So I think that the Patriots are lucky with the
schedule and lucky with the health. I don't think that
both of those things last forever. I don't think that
they have the depths on the roster or that the
(06:07):
Broncos do so despite the fact that the Broncos don't
cover the spread at the highest clip in comparison. I'm
going to go with the Broncos because I believe in
their talent, I believe in their depth, and I believe
in kind of the seniority that they have in the
locker room a little bit more than the Patriots.
Speaker 3 (06:21):
But I will say I do with the Patriots. They're flowers.
Speaker 4 (06:23):
They are out kicking the coverage that I personally thought
they would this season. I'm going to go with the Broncos,
but I have to respect what the Patriots have done.
I just expect that luck to run out at some point, and.
Speaker 1 (06:33):
The Broncos are getting points on the road against Houston
this week, the Patriots laying five and a half against
the Atlanta Falcons stucky.
Speaker 2 (06:41):
If you want to look at this season long that's.
Speaker 1 (06:42):
Fine, But in terms of this coming weekend, is there
are there one of those two where you're still willing
to invest in a team right now who's stock is
as high as it could be yet.
Speaker 5 (06:53):
I don't think it's not the Broncos. I mean, the
Broncos won five straight. They beat Jake Browning, the Jets
by two, the Giants by one. In the game they
should have lost, they were down twenty and then the
you know, the Road Cowboys, they blew them out. And
then the Eagles they were down seventeen three and they
had a good comeback. But it hasn't been that impressive.
(07:14):
If you dig into the competition, I would take the Patriots,
Like if I wanted to buy long term, it's the
Patriots because Drake May he's playing extremely well. His deep
ball has been unbelievable, and I would just take him
over Bo Nicks any day of the week. Plus, Broncos
is gonna be without Patrick Sutan for quite some time,
and that's huge because he enables them to do so
(07:36):
much defensively. I could be interested in the Falcons this
week they need Penix back. He's clearly better than whatever
whatever Kirk Cousins is out there now. But they have
a bunch of other injuries, Like their defense wasn't the
same because Zach Harrison has been great. He was a
late scratch to play without Jalen Walker, Jesse Bates got hurt,
(07:56):
Billy Bowman didn't play, so they hadn't deep Devon Divine Diablo,
who's been a big loss. He's on ir though, and
then obviously they miss Drake London. So there's a lot
of injuries to watch, including Pennix for the Falcons. The Patriots,
on the other end, they've been fairly healthy. Texans Broncos game,
it's if you get Nico Collins back. That's very important.
(08:21):
Without certain but the concern there is does the Broncos
defensive line ruin the game for the Texans?
Speaker 2 (08:29):
Right?
Speaker 5 (08:29):
The Texans are c J. Strapp can still pick apart
defense as if he has time, and San franc can't
generate any pass rush, but Denver obviously ken, so is
that going to ruin the game. I think you're gonna
need Collins this week, so we'll see if he can go.
I don't think Christian Kirk will, but that's certainly worth monitoring.
And then just a note on injury reports. You want
to look at an injury report, go to the Giants
(08:52):
and forty nine ers for this week. That is as
long as you'll see in the NFL on both sides.
The forty nine is it gonna be is Brock party back?
I think, but we'll see. But they've had more injuries
on defense last week. We'll see if they get anyone
back on offense. But the Giants also Holland Flop a
debo like Art Green who was starting, he got hurt.
(09:14):
They were down to like a practice squad guy. And
Deontay Banks who's unplayable. So there's a ton of injuries
to watch in that game and a number of others.
But like I mentioned the Panthers, we'll see about Bryce Young.
They had some offensive line injuries, they had some key
defensive injuries last week. They got really beat up. And
they're going to Green Bay, who could be even healthier
(09:35):
this week, so they could be in trouble. Those are
some of the ones I'll point out. And then the Raiders,
are you gonna get Meyers, Bowers and Crosby obviously a
different team with them back, and then you have for
the Jags, the Jags Podcast, Murray BTJ, Devin Lloyd are
(09:55):
ones to watch there. So yeah, there's a There's definitely
a lot than Jaden and Dan on Monday Night Football
or Sunday Night Football. We'll see if he can go.
But there are a lot of injuries in the last one.
I keep saying the last one. But Lamar Jackson, we're
gonna do this dance again. He's expected to play.
Speaker 1 (10:13):
The line indicates that he is in there against last week.
Speaker 3 (10:17):
I don't believe anything anymore.
Speaker 1 (10:20):
What does it matter, Just by the way and move
on with your lives. I am predicting it right now.
Thursday's pickle game for Kendra is Jags Raiders. I'll just
that one's sitting at three. Both teams off a bye.
Who the hell is Jacksonville. There's no way that you're
going to have.
Speaker 3 (10:39):
We want the super Bowl.
Speaker 2 (10:42):
It's already over super Bowl.
Speaker 1 (10:45):
Speaking of the teams inside of the AFC South, the
Colts have the most ridiculous point differential in the NFL
there at plus one sixteen. The next closest is Kansas
City at plus eighty three. Yet the Colts are just
three point favorites on the road against the steel this week,
so it looks too obvious again to take Indianapolis, which,
(11:05):
by the way, we never do.
Speaker 2 (11:07):
I would love to go.
Speaker 1 (11:10):
Back in time and not be a Jags podcast and
just be a Colts podcast. Why do we not throw
this team in our parlay every single week? Somebody please
explain the stasses I have.
Speaker 3 (11:23):
Our plan. Week twelve is when we fade the Colts.
And here's why.
Speaker 4 (11:29):
From week twelve, their schedule goes at Kansas City home
versus Houston, at Jacksonville they haven't won a game in
Jacksonville in ten years, at Seattle home versus San Francisco
home versus Jacksonville, and then they close out at Houston.
We start fading the Colts week twelve.
Speaker 5 (11:49):
I might start this week. I mean, look, I've upgraded
the Colts so much, but that the Packers just cloes
two and a half minus one twenty in Pittsburgh. Like
we're saying the Colts are better than the Packers.
Speaker 2 (12:00):
Now.
Speaker 5 (12:01):
No, I saw I saw the Packers power raided number
one in the NFL.
Speaker 3 (12:07):
I don't believe Ben Jordan Love I don't.
Speaker 5 (12:09):
I mean, he just I believe in love. See, I'm
like you, I believe in love.
Speaker 1 (12:13):
But the thing that we've had, the thing this is
about Pittsburgh as far as the.
Speaker 2 (12:20):
Like their defense has been so awful.
Speaker 1 (12:23):
As we continue to upgrade the Indianapolis Colts, we have
to continue to downgrade the Pittsburgh Steelers too.
Speaker 5 (12:29):
But I mean, I just can't get to especially three
and a half. I'll have to play the Steelers here.
I mean, the Colts defense isn't any good either. The
Packers defense is good that they the Colts don't have
a pass rush.
Speaker 2 (12:41):
Forty nine and a half, by the way, is the total.
Maybe we played the over there.
Speaker 5 (12:44):
Could be some weather there which would help Pittsburgh. And yeah,
I mean it's just a number. Just comes down to numbers.
I mean, like if the Packers and Colts but in
the neutral field, I would certainly have the Packers favored
over the Bolts. So yeah, I'm interested in the Steelers,
(13:05):
especially if I can get a three and a half.
It's weekly you couldn't even get a you couldn't even
get a clean three with the Steelers against the Packers. Yeah, like, no,
I'm I'm potentially interested in the Steelers this week.
Speaker 1 (13:18):
I uh my, my new fangled numbers actually make this
Colts minus two. So if I was playing that, I'd
have to be on Pittsburgh also. But my general point
in saying all of this is I'm tired of either
fading or just not betting on the Indianapolis Colts. Now
does that mean that you have to go run to
the window and bet them. No, But there are those
teams that every year US Sharp's just sleep on and
(13:44):
they're out here just making people money every single week,
and Indianapolis is definitely doing that now the biggest game
of the weekend.
Speaker 2 (13:49):
Chiefs at Bill No.
Speaker 4 (13:50):
Because the second we do is when they'll come out.
Speaker 2 (13:54):
That's why you have to You do have to compose yourself.
Speaker 1 (13:57):
I'm thinking more like retroactively, we should have just been like, no,
this is the team, this is this year's Minnesota Vikings
with Sam Darnold, and just ride that train. There's always
a team where you can just they'll just sort of
take you to mid season profitability. And Indianapolis was that
we'd missed the boat on it, and I think we
should just call spata spade here. Fine and fine, okay,
(14:19):
thank you for giving into that. Chiefs at Bill's biggest
game of the weekend. I am not in charge of
your social calendars out there, but if you have plans
at four to twenty five pm on the East Coast,
you should probably go ahead and cancel those. We did
see this flip already. The Chiefs or the Bills opened
as favorites. The Chiefs are now favored there on a
short week. The Bills off of a blowout win against
(14:43):
the Carolina Panthers.
Speaker 2 (14:45):
They look pretty damn good. This is a tough one
any early read.
Speaker 1 (14:50):
I'm probably gonna wait until the last minute, but I
will be on this game because it's just too big
not to have.
Speaker 2 (14:54):
Some action on it.
Speaker 4 (14:56):
I'm annoyed by the NFL schedule makers once again.
Speaker 3 (14:59):
Why why is this a four o'clock game? Why? Like,
I do not understand why they continue to do this
to us. This needs to be a like this Thursday
night matchup? Are we serious? We didn't look at this sooner?
Speaker 1 (15:11):
You would rather have this game on a Thursday night?
Four twenty five is like to me, that's the best
window for games like this.
Speaker 4 (15:18):
No, I want this in primetime at night. I want
this to be you know, I want this to be
all I'm watching. All I'm caring about. All I'm investing
in this is the two you know, top teams heading
into the season playing each other. That's what I want.
I want it stand alone by itself. That being said,
you're the only one is.
Speaker 5 (15:38):
Is act to be just paying attention to this because
the other games are Jags, Raiders and Saints Rams.
Speaker 2 (15:43):
Yeah, there's okay, we have three games. We turn the
others off.
Speaker 3 (15:46):
Drags podcast.
Speaker 5 (15:48):
What you're saying, you have to watch the Raiders like
the Chief Spills of base essentially have thero own window here.
Speaker 1 (15:55):
Just turn your lights off, make it feel like it's
at night, and treat it like a primetime game.
Speaker 2 (16:00):
That's why.
Speaker 4 (16:00):
Well, you know what, this this game, unfortunately for me,
is not going to be on my big TV because
I'm going to be jagging off unlike you fake fans.
Speaker 3 (16:08):
Anyways, I'm on the Bills.
Speaker 2 (16:10):
I'm not a Jags fan. You guys are forcing me
into this every single week.
Speaker 3 (16:14):
I do have the Bills, worst team in the state.
Don't do me that well.
Speaker 2 (16:17):
We get primetime games though.
Speaker 1 (16:19):
I do have the Bills, and a teaser bought them
up to seven and a half paired with the Bengals
at eight and a half against the Bears. So if
you wanted some way of playing into this early in
the week, I I feel like that's a good one piece.
Speaker 5 (16:33):
Uh, the injuries are bad, Like I'm worth watching it,
Oliver the I are.
Speaker 2 (16:39):
The Chiefs.
Speaker 5 (16:40):
You want to watch their offensive line injuries looks Josh
Simmons I think is going to be out again. But
Tray Smith is questionable. That matters a lot more against
Buffalo than it does against Washington. Whoever they have left
on their defensive line, but maybe not because Buffalo d
lose that. Oliver Dae Kwon Jones is questionable. Their safeties
are a mess. Matt Malono and Terrell Bernard are questionable.
(17:02):
So like this defense is in rough shape. So but
like is they should be able to run the ball
in Kansas City. It's Josh Allen at home. I mean,
this is a Buffalo team that for the moment, I
think they have three losses at home over the last words. Now,
they did lose at home earlier this year. A lot
of that is the defensive injuries. Their defense hasn't been right.
(17:24):
Now you're going up against this Chiefs offense. But chief
short week traveling on the road, Bills have this circle.
They usually have the Chiefs number in the regular season,
but those defensive injuries.
Speaker 2 (17:35):
Four and L I believe is the number.
Speaker 5 (17:37):
Or yeah, defensive injuries might be too much. But nowan
I'll keep this close, so I don't mind that teaser piece.
Speaker 2 (17:43):
Let's look at Thursday Texans.
Speaker 5 (17:44):
I would pair with Texans too. Like Texans up over
a touchdown in a game with a total of thirty nine.
Speaker 1 (17:51):
The Texans are favored now though, would you still play that?
Speaker 5 (17:54):
Oh no?
Speaker 2 (17:55):
As far as a teaser, no, no, no Little Wi
at San Francisco.
Speaker 1 (18:00):
Oh no, I'm sorry. That was last week's game. I
was thinking about no Denver. And by the way, excuse yeah,
I mean the teasing Denver. Sure, Bo Nicks is a
teaser god. Evan Abrams puts this in his primer every
single week. This guy, when you use him, buy up
some points. He doesn't miss. So that I like that angle.
As far as the Broncos goes, Thursday Night Football Ravens.
Speaker 2 (18:22):
Dolphins Thursday Night Football.
Speaker 1 (18:24):
Dolphins seven and a half point underdogs, total sitting at
fifty and a half, both teams coming off of double
digit wins. But this number is where it is for
a reason. Lamar is supposed to be back for Baltimore.
John Harball played some games with the injury report last week.
We'll slap on the wrist, move on. Get Lamar back now.
Both teams sitting on two wins right now, and a
(18:45):
win for either one more likely the Ravens could actually
make a case to make a play for a wild
card spot. I think the Ravens are actually favored right
now to win their division, so pretty wild stuff. This
is a big game, even though you have two teams
record wise that have been terrible. The Dolphins four and
(19:05):
two against the spread over their last six games, so they're.
Speaker 2 (19:08):
Not dead yet.
Speaker 1 (19:10):
I kind of want to be on Miami. Can somebody
talk me off of losing money on my own team?
Speaker 3 (19:16):
They suck? Have you not been watching the games every.
Speaker 2 (19:20):
Two as last six weeks?
Speaker 4 (19:22):
You know? But everybody's injured for them. The Ravens are
finally getting healthier. It's Baltimore and nothing for me here.
They've got to absolutely blow doors, not just win, to
get the confidence up, to get back on track to
actually be back in the playoff conversation. They don't have
to just I mean they do have to just win,
but they've got to win convincingly. Now it's not just
(19:42):
they're they're convincing, you know, the general public. They've got
to convince themselves that they are not the team that
they have shown everybody the last couple of weeks despite
the injuries that they've had, because some of the losses,
even with the injuries, are inexcusable. In my opinion, I
don't know what's going on with this team. It's got
to be Baltimore and nothing for me here. The Dolphins
no business doing what they did to the Falcons the
other day, and the Falcons I think are a good team.
(20:05):
I think it was just a bad spot for them.
It was an easy get up spot for the Dolphins.
They had nothing to lose. They could just go out
there and ball with the injuries that they have. But
they they're just they're they're like roadkill. When you feel
bad for them and they start kicking again and you're like, damn,
like they're eventually going to die. Should I just put
the car in reverse? And and their misery right now,
that's where I see the Dolphins.
Speaker 2 (20:26):
Wow.
Speaker 1 (20:27):
Just a disclaimer, no animals were injured during the use
of that take. Maybe we should put an eye patch
on Tua. That seemed to work the one eye Toua
was hurling touchdowns left and right. Stucky, you're the Ravens, whisper,
What are you seeing matchup wise Thursday night?
Speaker 5 (20:46):
I just don't know. On themar and to lay over
a touchdown on a short week, and then like if
he does play the other like I like that spot
against the Bears. Regardless coming out of the by the
Bears defense has been a paper to Lamar has not
been efficient. But if Lamar plays is how is he
(21:07):
gonna look? How's the ofphense gonna be called? Is he
going to be healthy? Is he going to be fully mobile?
Speaker 2 (21:11):
I don't know.
Speaker 5 (21:11):
There's so much on certain the end. It's a short week.
I hate Thursday night football games already. The Dolphins also
had a ton of injuries last week, a lot in
the secondary. Storm Duck who just came back. I think
it will be out. Fitzpatrick got hurt. I mean it
goes on. That team is just decimated. And they caught
a sleepy Falcons team without Penix, without London, without like
four or five starting defenders, and they just caught him
(21:34):
on a good day. This is still a really bad
Dolphins team. But like, I have no interest in this
game whatsoever, will not be betting it.
Speaker 1 (21:43):
It is a bad Dolphins team, and I have no
believe me, I have no delusions about what this Dolphins
team is.
Speaker 2 (21:49):
But still, uh, I don't know. I think you might
Thursday night.
Speaker 1 (21:54):
To me, it's about the perception not meeting up with reality.
The perception of Miami is what you said, Kendrid. It's
that their roadkill, that they've given up on their coach.
And outside of getting blown out by the Cleveland Browns,
the Dolphins play every team they go up against tough,
and their schedule hasn't been easy. They've faced the Bills,
They've gone up against the Patriots. I mean, they're covering
(22:16):
spreads against good teams, and yet the perception on them,
even after a win is still Yeah, but this team sucks.
They do, but they're good enough to cover numbers, especially
when you get over a touchdown and an extra point.
Speaker 4 (22:30):
Legitimately, two years ago, my dog body slammed a rat
in the backyard and I thought that it had died,
and I went back out there two days later with
a shovel to put it in the trash, and it
started squeaking, and the body had already molded, and I
had to go out there and smash the head of
the rat in with the shovel so that it would die.
Speaker 3 (22:48):
So I put it in the trash. That is this
Dolphins team.
Speaker 4 (22:51):
My dog has broken the ribs and pounced on this rat,
and it just every once in a while shows a
sign of life.
Speaker 3 (22:57):
The Ravens are gonna go out there be the shovel
that I had to be.
Speaker 1 (23:00):
You know, this is where my stubbornness gets me in trouble.
Put your fucking shovel away. I'm taking the Dolphins plus
the seven end.
Speaker 3 (23:07):
Do you collared?
Speaker 1 (23:09):
We're about to plant our flag presented by Draft Kings,
but first the word from our very own Kendra as
we chat about our great friends at DraftKings.
Speaker 4 (23:18):
The Favorites podcast is sponsored by DraftKings sportsbook and in
partnership with DraftKings. Favorites listeners get a great offer right now.
New customers can bet five dollars and get three hundred
dollars back in bonus bets if your bet wins, and
three months of NBA League Pass.
Speaker 3 (23:32):
For new customers.
Speaker 4 (23:33):
To get started, use code favorites when signing up with DraftKings.
That's code favorites when signing up with DraftKings for three
months of NBA League Pass and three hundred dollars back
in bonus bets. If your bet wins, the crown is yours.
Speaker 2 (23:45):
All right, Kendra, what do you got? Where are you
planting your flag?
Speaker 1 (23:51):
Flag?
Speaker 6 (23:52):
And a shut up.
Speaker 3 (23:53):
I'm trying to plant my flag here. Okay, you're really
planning your flag in that thing.
Speaker 4 (23:57):
We were filling out our notes what's the same time
early and typed in the same game, and I decided
to pivot, and I'm gonna let you have it just
in case it's wrong. I want to say that this
slate feels like fools gold because it feels so good.
It feels like an easy slate to be able to
gamble on, which is what makes me think that I
might not have the best week because it feels too
(24:18):
good to be true.
Speaker 3 (24:19):
However, I think I'm gonna go with the Bears.
Speaker 4 (24:22):
Stucky alluded to the point that the Bears defense has
not been what some of us expected. It's, you know,
highest caliber to be so far this season. They're playing
the Bengals, though I get that the Bengals. Joe Flacco's
had some chemistry with Jamar Chase. They're kind of progressing
a way, but they're just unreliable. I think that what's
gonna happen is the Bears are going to be able
(24:43):
to outscore that offense, regardless of the chemistry that they have.
The Bears are the better team, don't think too hard
about it. The Bengals are a bad team. They need
Joe Burrow, They're beaten up, they're discouraged. I'm going with
the Bears. I'm closing my eyes and I'm just hitting
the smash button. I'm like that lizard and like that
Disney meme that was going aro.
Speaker 3 (25:00):
For a while. That's just like lizard, Lizard, Lizard. That's
me with this game.
Speaker 4 (25:03):
I can't even think about it. It just it's what
feels right. It feels the best to me. I'm going
with it, closing my eyes.
Speaker 1 (25:09):
I'm just worried about what Chase is going to do
to the secondary. But that's why I bought the points up.
Can't talk you off of the Bears minus the two
and a half. Stucky you where you at?
Speaker 2 (25:17):
Yeah?
Speaker 5 (25:17):
I haven't bet anything yet this week. There's a lot
of favorites that I think are a little overvalued. I
don't know if I'll get to Maybe that's as a
result of this past week. I think favorites had their
best day and best weekend in twenty five years or something.
Speaker 2 (25:32):
Eleven ats this week a.
Speaker 3 (25:34):
Good season for him.
Speaker 5 (25:36):
None were even close, So I think there's a couple
that are overvalued. I haven't played anything yet, but I'll
just go back to what I said before. I can't
get to this cold Steelers number. So I'll plan my
flag on the Steelers plus three minus one to five.
But wait, I think you're going to get to three
and a half. So but I'll plan my flag now
on the Steelers. The Bears Bengals, I mean you Kenjri,
(25:57):
you might also not get Flacco, could be browning Flacco's
younger shoulder injuries day to day, so that would be beneficial.
The Bears, I mean there they're secondaries and just such shambles.
We'll see if Stevenson can come back. But Gordon and
Johnson on I are but the Bears should be able
to move the ball. On the Bengals, I mean the
Jets with a bunch of backup receivers and at Justin
Field's put a five hundred yards. That's right insane. So
(26:19):
the Bengals defense is pathetic. Their offensive line is still bad.
I mean that should be a shootout, but there is
a chance that Flacco doesn't go, and it's clearly a
downgrade when when Browning is in there. But like some
other games that I think are a little too high,
I mean the Giant s Niners. I mean, I gotta
wait on the injury report there. Let's see maybe if we.
Speaker 3 (26:42):
Talked about how Joe Flacco did a toush push. Though
that old man did the toush push, anybody.
Speaker 2 (26:50):
Could do it.
Speaker 5 (26:50):
Any everyone needs to adopt a sneak. I'm interested in
the Cardinals at three. I do think the Lions are
a tad too high. See what their secondary looks like.
I just think that should be seven. The Titans are
too high, But am I going to bet them? I
don't know. I doubt it. I do think the Falcons
are too high right now. But I need more clarity
(27:13):
on the injury situation. Like I need Panics back, I
need London back. A couple of defenders would help. And yeah,
I think that's about it on the radar for now.
Speaker 1 (27:23):
How about the Carolina Panthers. That's thinking about putting them.
Speaker 3 (27:26):
I thought about them too.
Speaker 2 (27:28):
I never thought I would say this. I need Bryce
young Beck.
Speaker 5 (27:34):
They also had more offense. They had a couple offensive
line and more offensive line injuries last week, and they're
already down offensive linemen. Derek Brown is like so important.
Their defense got hurt. Their defense had a couple injuries,
like their Rundy has been really good, had a couple injuries,
and the Bills did whatever they wanted. So I would
be a little cautious.
Speaker 3 (27:52):
There, Andy asked Dalton. I can't do it.
Speaker 5 (27:55):
You don't want to.
Speaker 2 (27:56):
I'm betting.
Speaker 1 (27:57):
I'm not betting on Andy Dalton three turnovers last week.
He looks beyond washed. I play at the flag game, though,
I was thinking about the well not to think. I've
already bet the Detroit Lions at minus eight and a half.
That number is not going anywhere. But uh, but I'm
gonna go with the forty nine ers minus two and
a half. I am over the Max Jones experience. We
(28:17):
might be getting Brock Purty back. I would love that
nice bounce back opportunity after getting dominated by a desperate
Houston team and the Giants are falling apart. The neighbors
injury was a big blow to the offense. I think
the Scataboo injury hurts their identity. Yeah, I think it's
much worse in terms of what and I mean the
the unquantifiable swag that him and Jackson Dart had. There's
(28:42):
a reason why Dart had the reaction he did when
when he saw Skataboo's leg twisted all sorts of ways.
I think that might have been the straw that broke
the Campbell's back. The Giants were a nice story.
Speaker 3 (28:51):
But it was fine.
Speaker 2 (28:53):
Yeah it was. It was a lot of fun.
Speaker 1 (28:54):
But this is a big bounce back spot for about it.
Solidarity Bears minus two and a half is in the
plant the flag spread here forty nine Ers minus two
and a half and the Steelers plus three, but Stucky
advising that you wait until you get the plus three
and a half. Those are a plant. The Flag Games
(29:16):
presented by DraftKings. Now time for the main event. No
betting week can start without it. It's the primer courtesy
of Evan Abrams. Yeah, into the show, Evan, how much
fun have you had listening to us yell at each other?
Speaker 6 (29:30):
So you guys said eleven and two ats or favorites.
That was in week eight, best win percentage for favorites
in a single week since December of eighty five. I
think the crazy thing is all eleven favorites covered by
seven plus points, which is the most I've seen in
a week in over thirty years. So really insane in
the fact that no game was even close for other
(29:50):
than the two upsets. The other note favorites thirty three
and ten straight up the last three weeks, so dogs
really not even winning on the mon as well in
that span. In terms of everything else, the one thing
you might notice from the slate this week is a
lot of high totals. So right now we have five
(30:10):
totals of fifty plus that would be the most since
Week ten of twenty twenty one at this point, and
we even have a few in the forty eight and
forty nine, so have to see how that goes. But yeah,
a lot of high totals this week. A few other
things I'll just throw at you. GoF eight to zero
against the spread versus the Vikings with the Lions. Wow,
he is absolutely dominated. Minnesota.
Speaker 2 (30:33):
Oh love Tennessee.
Speaker 6 (30:35):
We talk about this all the time, But got to
say it. They've lost eleven straight ats at home, so
they are getting ten points against Harbaugh, who usually crushes
on these road trips out east in Central does really
really well with those Chargers teams. But boy is at
a high number. And here's the best one. Colts and
Ravens can both cash their win totals this week. Colts
(30:57):
can go over seven and a half, Ravens can go
under eleven and a half.
Speaker 2 (31:00):
With a loss.
Speaker 6 (31:01):
And it is only week nine, so can't wait for
that stuff.
Speaker 1 (31:05):
Wow, that's really good stuff. Do you have anything on
the Patriots? This feels like they're tied right now with
the Broncos in terms of winning streaks in the NFL,
but they're also doing it in terms of covering the number.
They're on the heater of all heaters right now. Is
there a cell point for them? Is there anything in
(31:26):
the primer this week about hey, ease up on trying
to tail this team as trees don't grow to the sky.
Speaker 6 (31:36):
I feel like I kind of just used the same
stat I used last week because I went one in
one with Chicago and New England. But the fact that
teams are a four plus game straight at Ats who
didn't make the playoffs fifteen and twenty seven against the
number two and fifteen since twenty twenty two. So at
some point New England comes back to the mean. But
the crazier thing is those MVP odds. Drake May opens
(31:57):
the year at fifty to one, but crazy thing. Entering
Week five he was one hundred to one and now
he's five to one. So that is a massive, massive
correction based off the season that he's had so far,
two thousand passing yards, seventy five percent completion percentage to
eight games. Only Drew Brees in twenty eighteen pulled that off,
(32:18):
so what he's been doing is really really crazy. I
think the other thing when it comes to this game
is Atlanta Outdoors has been pretty bad, and I think
it's a little bit different in terms of how they've
performed zero to two this year, but losing by twenty
points per game an outdoor game since twenty twenty just
eleven and eighteen, So maybe a bit of a tough
(32:38):
spot there.
Speaker 1 (32:39):
Damn because Stucky, this feels like the ultimate buy opportunity.
This is this is the kind of game that you
bet on with the Falcons plus the five and a half.
They just got blown out by a bad Dolphins team.
Ultimate sell high. Everybody is on their knees for the
New England Patriots right now. I'd be surprised if you're not.
Speaker 5 (33:00):
I needed injuries like I need. I need Panics, I
need I need London. I need some of the defenders
back or at least a couple.
Speaker 1 (33:06):
Yeah, great stuff, Evan, appreciate it. Make sure you go
and check out the primer Actionnetwork dot com or on
the Action Network app, and that will do it for
today's episode special thanks to our producers David Paine and
Gifford Gold. The Favorites will return on Thursday, two days
from now, day before Halloween.
Speaker 2 (33:25):
So maybe we have to wear costumes, guys.
Speaker 1 (33:26):
We'll hash that out on our slack channel Action Network
YouTube pages where you can find us. We will talk
week nine best bets on Thursday, plus our two Kings
and a Queen parlay.
Speaker 2 (33:36):
We'll see her here right here.
Speaker 1 (33:37):
Next time on the Favorites presented by DraftKings wear Out.
Speaker 3 (33:50):
Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or
someone you care about has a gambling problem. Help is
available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler
Welcome to the Favorites, presented by DraftKings. The Crown is yours.
We are an Action Network podcast. I'm Brandon Kravitz and
the crew is back on this fine Tuesday morning. Kendra Middleton,
the Prime Minister Stuckey. On today's episode, We've got our
plant the Flag. Game of the week for Week nine
in the NFL, which, please God, be better than Week eight.
(00:30):
Thursday Night Football Preview, a breakdown of the top storylines
in terms of the betting perspective, and of course, the
main event Evans Primer coming up at the end of
the episode.
Speaker 2 (00:39):
Be sure to stick around for that. We had an
eighteen inning game in baseball last night.
Speaker 1 (00:44):
The sports equinox was equinoxing and Kendra's back from Scotland.
Speaker 2 (00:49):
Kendra, how was your trip overseas?
Speaker 3 (00:52):
It was good.
Speaker 4 (00:53):
I was glad to have the break. I'm ready to
grind through the Super Bowl, though. Oh I didn't see
the Lockness Monster, I didn't learn how to play bagpipes.
And I did figure out that they don't wear underwear
under kilts at all.
Speaker 3 (01:06):
No one Dei's they freeball that shit.
Speaker 1 (01:09):
I always I always sort of assumed what was the
most fun thing you did while you were over there.
Speaker 3 (01:15):
Ooh, good question. Most fun thing.
Speaker 4 (01:19):
I am not a huge history person, but I really
enjoyed learning about the Mary Queen of Scott's situation, how
that there was like that giant power struggle, and I
also got to see a bunch of the Harry Potter
graves and how there was like a dog that basically protected.
Speaker 3 (01:36):
Edinburgh for a while.
Speaker 4 (01:38):
I'm gonna go with the dog probably, but lots of
lots of fun things.
Speaker 1 (01:42):
Okay, we'll get a maybe you'll get a breakdown video
as well on the social channels. Not a horrible idea, Stucky.
You want to give us a recap of Monday Night
football twenty eight to seven. The commander is not able
to get it done for us.
Speaker 5 (01:55):
Yeah, I did miss their chances early and then died late.
I mean, they'd five trips inside the forty first four
trips inside of the forty zero points and you can't
do that against the Chiefs. They also went zero of
two on fourth downs. Chiefs went two of two and
then the second half was all Chiefs dominant second half
by Kansas City washing them more injuries. That team is
(02:20):
just decimated. McLaurin didn't finish. They lost their left they
lost Tunsil, they lost another defensive lineman. They're just in
rough shape. But yeah, they couldn't take advantage early. They
came out hair on fire and just couldn't take advantage.
There was a fumble that they couldn't pick up which
was a huge turning point, and a couple fourth downs.
(02:43):
So yeah, I will say the Chiefs are playing their
offenses on fire, but I will say the team has
been pretty fortunate overall. They have nine fumbles on the year,
they've recovered all of them. They are fourteen of seventeen
on fourth down. This is a non sneak team eighty
(03:05):
three percent. That's getting up to like that's like Washington
Territory last year opponents are four of sixteen on fourth
down twenty five percent. So there might be some And
that's basically what these football games come down to, turnovers,
fourth downs, Right it's usually like five or six plays
that will decide a game and or cover, and the
(03:27):
Chiefs have been getting those plays. But they're also their
offense right now is looks pretty unstoppable.
Speaker 4 (03:32):
How different do we think that game is if Jaden plays,
Because I definitely think it's a lot different of the game.
Speaker 5 (03:37):
I mean, Mariotta was fine in the first half, they
just couldn't They turned it over. There was a throwoff
Deebo's helmet that ended in an interception. The fourth down
play calls were bizarre. I thought there was a.
Speaker 3 (03:50):
Bad terrible what's that.
Speaker 4 (03:52):
I didn't think his decisioning was good whatsoever? And he
was slow to make them.
Speaker 5 (03:56):
Yeah, second half it was. It was especially bad. But
there was a spot on a fourth down that was
awful that took points off the board.
Speaker 3 (04:03):
But umpires also going in the favor of the Chiefs.
That was a terrible spot on that. What is the
point of that?
Speaker 4 (04:10):
I was in I was watching that game in the
shower because I have like a thing I can put
my phone on the wall in the shower so I
can watch games and ESPN while I washed my hair.
I was literally screaming like no, in my shower.
Speaker 5 (04:21):
Yeah, it wasn't even close, you Like, I got up
by a half yard and they marked it a half
yard short. That was very bizarre. But now it's it's
on to week ten or week nine, and there are
lots and lots of injuries to track.
Speaker 1 (04:39):
As per usual, let's get to our quick three, our
top three takes our storylines. Heading into Week nine, the
Pats and the Broncos have each won five straight games,
the Patriots five and zero against the spread in those
five the Broncos are three and two Ats within that
five game stretch. But who are we buying more stock
(05:01):
in right now? Between the two hottest teams in the NFL? Kendrey,
you are our resident Patriots experts? Are we all in
on this team? They just look so good, so fluid
on offense. Rabel is a phenomenal coach. Hard not to
buy stock here. Trees don't grow to the sky, but
(05:21):
they have it Atlanta this week, and Atlanta looks like
they are on major fraud alert.
Speaker 4 (05:26):
Yeah, it's tough because the Patriots not only have, in
my opinion, probably the easiest schedule in the NFL, but
as far as luck being healthy at this point in
the season, they're probably the healthiest team in the league
right now. And I get that Will Campbell's not gonna
have to go up against Miles Garrett every week. Stefon
Diggs is playing at a level people didn't expect him to.
(05:46):
A lot of people, including myself, were wondering what Drake
May was going to look like this year, but it
looks like him and Josh McDaniels are forehead kissing each
other every night before bed. Everything is honey Dory there.
So I think that the Patriots are lucky with the
schedule and lucky with the health. I don't think that
both of those things last forever. I don't think that
they have the depths on the roster or that the
(06:07):
Broncos do so despite the fact that the Broncos don't
cover the spread at the highest clip in comparison. I'm
going to go with the Broncos because I believe in
their talent, I believe in their depth, and I believe
in kind of the seniority that they have in the
locker room a little bit more than the Patriots.
Speaker 3 (06:21):
But I will say I do with the Patriots. They're flowers.
Speaker 4 (06:23):
They are out kicking the coverage that I personally thought
they would this season. I'm going to go with the Broncos,
but I have to respect what the Patriots have done.
I just expect that luck to run out at some point, and.
Speaker 1 (06:33):
The Broncos are getting points on the road against Houston
this week, the Patriots laying five and a half against
the Atlanta Falcons stucky.
Speaker 2 (06:41):
If you want to look at this season long that's.
Speaker 1 (06:42):
Fine, But in terms of this coming weekend, is there
are there one of those two where you're still willing
to invest in a team right now who's stock is
as high as it could be yet.
Speaker 5 (06:53):
I don't think it's not the Broncos. I mean, the
Broncos won five straight. They beat Jake Browning, the Jets
by two, the Giants by one. In the game they
should have lost, they were down twenty and then the
you know, the Road Cowboys, they blew them out. And
then the Eagles they were down seventeen three and they
had a good comeback. But it hasn't been that impressive.
(07:14):
If you dig into the competition, I would take the Patriots,
Like if I wanted to buy long term, it's the
Patriots because Drake May he's playing extremely well. His deep
ball has been unbelievable, and I would just take him
over Bo Nicks any day of the week. Plus, Broncos
is gonna be without Patrick Sutan for quite some time,
and that's huge because he enables them to do so
(07:36):
much defensively. I could be interested in the Falcons this
week they need Penix back. He's clearly better than whatever
whatever Kirk Cousins is out there now. But they have
a bunch of other injuries, Like their defense wasn't the
same because Zach Harrison has been great. He was a
late scratch to play without Jalen Walker, Jesse Bates got hurt,
(07:56):
Billy Bowman didn't play, so they hadn't deep Devon Divine Diablo,
who's been a big loss. He's on ir though, and
then obviously they miss Drake London. So there's a lot
of injuries to watch, including Pennix for the Falcons. The Patriots,
on the other end, they've been fairly healthy. Texans Broncos game,
it's if you get Nico Collins back. That's very important.
(08:21):
Without certain but the concern there is does the Broncos
defensive line ruin the game for the Texans?
Speaker 2 (08:29):
Right?
Speaker 5 (08:29):
The Texans are c J. Strapp can still pick apart
defense as if he has time, and San franc can't
generate any pass rush, but Denver obviously ken, so is
that going to ruin the game. I think you're gonna
need Collins this week, so we'll see if he can go.
I don't think Christian Kirk will, but that's certainly worth monitoring.
And then just a note on injury reports. You want
to look at an injury report, go to the Giants
(08:52):
and forty nine ers for this week. That is as
long as you'll see in the NFL on both sides.
The forty nine is it gonna be is Brock party back?
I think, but we'll see. But they've had more injuries
on defense last week. We'll see if they get anyone
back on offense. But the Giants also Holland Flop a
debo like Art Green who was starting, he got hurt.
(09:14):
They were down to like a practice squad guy. And
Deontay Banks who's unplayable. So there's a ton of injuries
to watch in that game and a number of others.
But like I mentioned the Panthers, we'll see about Bryce Young.
They had some offensive line injuries, they had some key
defensive injuries last week. They got really beat up. And
they're going to Green Bay, who could be even healthier
(09:35):
this week, so they could be in trouble. Those are
some of the ones I'll point out. And then the Raiders,
are you gonna get Meyers, Bowers and Crosby obviously a
different team with them back, and then you have for
the Jags, the Jags Podcast, Murray BTJ, Devin Lloyd are
(09:55):
ones to watch there. So yeah, there's a There's definitely
a lot than Jaden and Dan on Monday Night Football
or Sunday Night Football. We'll see if he can go.
But there are a lot of injuries in the last one.
I keep saying the last one. But Lamar Jackson, we're
gonna do this dance again. He's expected to play.
Speaker 1 (10:13):
The line indicates that he is in there against last week.
Speaker 3 (10:17):
I don't believe anything anymore.
Speaker 1 (10:20):
What does it matter, Just by the way and move
on with your lives. I am predicting it right now.
Thursday's pickle game for Kendra is Jags Raiders. I'll just
that one's sitting at three. Both teams off a bye.
Who the hell is Jacksonville. There's no way that you're
going to have.
Speaker 3 (10:39):
We want the super Bowl.
Speaker 2 (10:42):
It's already over super Bowl.
Speaker 1 (10:45):
Speaking of the teams inside of the AFC South, the
Colts have the most ridiculous point differential in the NFL
there at plus one sixteen. The next closest is Kansas
City at plus eighty three. Yet the Colts are just
three point favorites on the road against the steel this week,
so it looks too obvious again to take Indianapolis, which,
(11:05):
by the way, we never do.
Speaker 2 (11:07):
I would love to go.
Speaker 1 (11:10):
Back in time and not be a Jags podcast and
just be a Colts podcast. Why do we not throw
this team in our parlay every single week? Somebody please
explain the stasses I have.
Speaker 3 (11:23):
Our plan. Week twelve is when we fade the Colts.
And here's why.
Speaker 4 (11:29):
From week twelve, their schedule goes at Kansas City home
versus Houston, at Jacksonville they haven't won a game in
Jacksonville in ten years, at Seattle home versus San Francisco
home versus Jacksonville, and then they close out at Houston.
We start fading the Colts week twelve.
Speaker 5 (11:49):
I might start this week. I mean, look, I've upgraded
the Colts so much, but that the Packers just cloes
two and a half minus one twenty in Pittsburgh. Like
we're saying the Colts are better than the Packers.
Speaker 2 (12:00):
Now.
Speaker 5 (12:01):
No, I saw I saw the Packers power raided number
one in the NFL.
Speaker 3 (12:07):
I don't believe Ben Jordan Love I don't.
Speaker 5 (12:09):
I mean, he just I believe in love. See, I'm
like you, I believe in love.
Speaker 1 (12:13):
But the thing that we've had, the thing this is
about Pittsburgh as far as the.
Speaker 2 (12:20):
Like their defense has been so awful.
Speaker 1 (12:23):
As we continue to upgrade the Indianapolis Colts, we have
to continue to downgrade the Pittsburgh Steelers too.
Speaker 5 (12:29):
But I mean, I just can't get to especially three
and a half. I'll have to play the Steelers here.
I mean, the Colts defense isn't any good either. The
Packers defense is good that they the Colts don't have
a pass rush.
Speaker 2 (12:41):
Forty nine and a half, by the way, is the total.
Maybe we played the over there.
Speaker 5 (12:44):
Could be some weather there which would help Pittsburgh. And yeah,
I mean it's just a number. Just comes down to numbers.
I mean, like if the Packers and Colts but in
the neutral field, I would certainly have the Packers favored
over the Bolts. So yeah, I'm interested in the Steelers,
(13:05):
especially if I can get a three and a half.
It's weekly you couldn't even get a you couldn't even
get a clean three with the Steelers against the Packers. Yeah, like, no,
I'm I'm potentially interested in the Steelers this week.
Speaker 1 (13:18):
I uh my, my new fangled numbers actually make this
Colts minus two. So if I was playing that, I'd
have to be on Pittsburgh also. But my general point
in saying all of this is I'm tired of either
fading or just not betting on the Indianapolis Colts. Now
does that mean that you have to go run to
the window and bet them. No, But there are those
teams that every year US Sharp's just sleep on and
(13:44):
they're out here just making people money every single week,
and Indianapolis is definitely doing that now the biggest game
of the weekend.
Speaker 2 (13:49):
Chiefs at Bill No.
Speaker 4 (13:50):
Because the second we do is when they'll come out.
Speaker 2 (13:54):
That's why you have to You do have to compose yourself.
Speaker 1 (13:57):
I'm thinking more like retroactively, we should have just been like, no,
this is the team, this is this year's Minnesota Vikings
with Sam Darnold, and just ride that train. There's always
a team where you can just they'll just sort of
take you to mid season profitability. And Indianapolis was that
we'd missed the boat on it, and I think we
should just call spata spade here. Fine and fine, okay,
(14:19):
thank you for giving into that. Chiefs at Bill's biggest
game of the weekend. I am not in charge of
your social calendars out there, but if you have plans
at four to twenty five pm on the East Coast,
you should probably go ahead and cancel those. We did
see this flip already. The Chiefs or the Bills opened
as favorites. The Chiefs are now favored there on a
short week. The Bills off of a blowout win against
(14:43):
the Carolina Panthers.
Speaker 2 (14:45):
They look pretty damn good. This is a tough one
any early read.
Speaker 1 (14:50):
I'm probably gonna wait until the last minute, but I
will be on this game because it's just too big
not to have.
Speaker 2 (14:54):
Some action on it.
Speaker 4 (14:56):
I'm annoyed by the NFL schedule makers once again.
Speaker 3 (14:59):
Why why is this a four o'clock game? Why? Like,
I do not understand why they continue to do this
to us. This needs to be a like this Thursday
night matchup? Are we serious? We didn't look at this sooner?
Speaker 1 (15:11):
You would rather have this game on a Thursday night?
Four twenty five is like to me, that's the best
window for games like this.
Speaker 4 (15:18):
No, I want this in primetime at night. I want
this to be you know, I want this to be
all I'm watching. All I'm caring about. All I'm investing
in this is the two you know, top teams heading
into the season playing each other. That's what I want.
I want it stand alone by itself. That being said,
you're the only one is.
Speaker 5 (15:38):
Is act to be just paying attention to this because
the other games are Jags, Raiders and Saints Rams.
Speaker 2 (15:43):
Yeah, there's okay, we have three games. We turn the
others off.
Speaker 3 (15:46):
Drags podcast.
Speaker 5 (15:48):
What you're saying, you have to watch the Raiders like
the Chief Spills of base essentially have thero own window here.
Speaker 1 (15:55):
Just turn your lights off, make it feel like it's
at night, and treat it like a primetime game.
Speaker 2 (16:00):
That's why.
Speaker 4 (16:00):
Well, you know what, this this game, unfortunately for me,
is not going to be on my big TV because
I'm going to be jagging off unlike you fake fans.
Speaker 3 (16:08):
Anyways, I'm on the Bills.
Speaker 2 (16:10):
I'm not a Jags fan. You guys are forcing me
into this every single week.
Speaker 3 (16:14):
I do have the Bills, worst team in the state.
Don't do me that well.
Speaker 2 (16:17):
We get primetime games though.
Speaker 1 (16:19):
I do have the Bills, and a teaser bought them
up to seven and a half paired with the Bengals
at eight and a half against the Bears. So if
you wanted some way of playing into this early in
the week, I I feel like that's a good one piece.
Speaker 5 (16:33):
Uh, the injuries are bad, Like I'm worth watching it,
Oliver the I are.
Speaker 2 (16:39):
The Chiefs.
Speaker 5 (16:40):
You want to watch their offensive line injuries looks Josh
Simmons I think is going to be out again. But
Tray Smith is questionable. That matters a lot more against
Buffalo than it does against Washington. Whoever they have left
on their defensive line, but maybe not because Buffalo d
lose that. Oliver Dae Kwon Jones is questionable. Their safeties
are a mess. Matt Malono and Terrell Bernard are questionable.
(17:02):
So like this defense is in rough shape. So but
like is they should be able to run the ball
in Kansas City. It's Josh Allen at home. I mean,
this is a Buffalo team that for the moment, I
think they have three losses at home over the last words. Now,
they did lose at home earlier this year. A lot
of that is the defensive injuries. Their defense hasn't been right.
(17:24):
Now you're going up against this Chiefs offense. But chief
short week traveling on the road, Bills have this circle.
They usually have the Chiefs number in the regular season,
but those defensive injuries.
Speaker 2 (17:35):
Four and L I believe is the number.
Speaker 5 (17:37):
Or yeah, defensive injuries might be too much. But nowan
I'll keep this close, so I don't mind that teaser piece.
Speaker 2 (17:43):
Let's look at Thursday Texans.
Speaker 5 (17:44):
I would pair with Texans too. Like Texans up over
a touchdown in a game with a total of thirty nine.
Speaker 1 (17:51):
The Texans are favored now though, would you still play that?
Speaker 5 (17:54):
Oh no?
Speaker 2 (17:55):
As far as a teaser, no, no, no Little Wi
at San Francisco.
Speaker 1 (18:00):
Oh no, I'm sorry. That was last week's game. I
was thinking about no Denver. And by the way, excuse yeah,
I mean the teasing Denver. Sure, Bo Nicks is a
teaser god. Evan Abrams puts this in his primer every
single week. This guy, when you use him, buy up
some points. He doesn't miss. So that I like that angle.
As far as the Broncos goes, Thursday Night Football Ravens.
Speaker 2 (18:22):
Dolphins Thursday Night Football.
Speaker 1 (18:24):
Dolphins seven and a half point underdogs, total sitting at
fifty and a half, both teams coming off of double
digit wins. But this number is where it is for
a reason. Lamar is supposed to be back for Baltimore.
John Harball played some games with the injury report last week.
We'll slap on the wrist, move on. Get Lamar back now.
Both teams sitting on two wins right now, and a
(18:45):
win for either one more likely the Ravens could actually
make a case to make a play for a wild
card spot. I think the Ravens are actually favored right
now to win their division, so pretty wild stuff. This
is a big game, even though you have two teams
record wise that have been terrible. The Dolphins four and
(19:05):
two against the spread over their last six games, so they're.
Speaker 2 (19:08):
Not dead yet.
Speaker 1 (19:10):
I kind of want to be on Miami. Can somebody
talk me off of losing money on my own team?
Speaker 3 (19:16):
They suck? Have you not been watching the games every.
Speaker 2 (19:20):
Two as last six weeks?
Speaker 4 (19:22):
You know? But everybody's injured for them. The Ravens are
finally getting healthier. It's Baltimore and nothing for me here.
They've got to absolutely blow doors, not just win, to
get the confidence up, to get back on track to
actually be back in the playoff conversation. They don't have
to just I mean they do have to just win,
but they've got to win convincingly. Now it's not just
(19:42):
they're they're convincing, you know, the general public. They've got
to convince themselves that they are not the team that
they have shown everybody the last couple of weeks despite
the injuries that they've had, because some of the losses,
even with the injuries, are inexcusable. In my opinion, I
don't know what's going on with this team. It's got
to be Baltimore and nothing for me here. The Dolphins
no business doing what they did to the Falcons the
other day, and the Falcons I think are a good team.
(20:05):
I think it was just a bad spot for them.
It was an easy get up spot for the Dolphins.
They had nothing to lose. They could just go out
there and ball with the injuries that they have. But
they they're just they're they're like roadkill. When you feel
bad for them and they start kicking again and you're like, damn,
like they're eventually going to die. Should I just put
the car in reverse? And and their misery right now,
that's where I see the Dolphins.
Speaker 2 (20:26):
Wow.
Speaker 1 (20:27):
Just a disclaimer, no animals were injured during the use
of that take. Maybe we should put an eye patch
on Tua. That seemed to work the one eye Toua
was hurling touchdowns left and right. Stucky, you're the Ravens, whisper,
What are you seeing matchup wise Thursday night?
Speaker 5 (20:46):
I just don't know. On themar and to lay over
a touchdown on a short week, and then like if
he does play the other like I like that spot
against the Bears. Regardless coming out of the by the
Bears defense has been a paper to Lamar has not
been efficient. But if Lamar plays is how is he
(21:07):
gonna look? How's the ofphense gonna be called? Is he
going to be healthy? Is he going to be fully mobile?
Speaker 2 (21:11):
I don't know.
Speaker 5 (21:11):
There's so much on certain the end. It's a short week.
I hate Thursday night football games already. The Dolphins also
had a ton of injuries last week, a lot in
the secondary. Storm Duck who just came back. I think
it will be out. Fitzpatrick got hurt. I mean it
goes on. That team is just decimated. And they caught
a sleepy Falcons team without Penix, without London, without like
four or five starting defenders, and they just caught him
(21:34):
on a good day. This is still a really bad
Dolphins team. But like, I have no interest in this
game whatsoever, will not be betting it.
Speaker 1 (21:43):
It is a bad Dolphins team, and I have no
believe me, I have no delusions about what this Dolphins
team is.
Speaker 2 (21:49):
But still, uh, I don't know. I think you might
Thursday night.
Speaker 1 (21:54):
To me, it's about the perception not meeting up with reality.
The perception of Miami is what you said, Kendrid. It's
that their roadkill, that they've given up on their coach.
And outside of getting blown out by the Cleveland Browns,
the Dolphins play every team they go up against tough,
and their schedule hasn't been easy. They've faced the Bills,
They've gone up against the Patriots. I mean, they're covering
(22:16):
spreads against good teams, and yet the perception on them,
even after a win is still Yeah, but this team sucks.
They do, but they're good enough to cover numbers, especially
when you get over a touchdown and an extra point.
Speaker 4 (22:30):
Legitimately, two years ago, my dog body slammed a rat
in the backyard and I thought that it had died,
and I went back out there two days later with
a shovel to put it in the trash, and it
started squeaking, and the body had already molded, and I
had to go out there and smash the head of
the rat in with the shovel so that it would die.
Speaker 3 (22:48):
So I put it in the trash. That is this
Dolphins team.
Speaker 4 (22:51):
My dog has broken the ribs and pounced on this rat,
and it just every once in a while shows a
sign of life.
Speaker 3 (22:57):
The Ravens are gonna go out there be the shovel
that I had to be.
Speaker 1 (23:00):
You know, this is where my stubbornness gets me in trouble.
Put your fucking shovel away. I'm taking the Dolphins plus
the seven end.
Speaker 3 (23:07):
Do you collared?
Speaker 1 (23:09):
We're about to plant our flag presented by Draft Kings,
but first the word from our very own Kendra as
we chat about our great friends at DraftKings.
Speaker 4 (23:18):
The Favorites podcast is sponsored by DraftKings sportsbook and in
partnership with DraftKings. Favorites listeners get a great offer right now.
New customers can bet five dollars and get three hundred
dollars back in bonus bets if your bet wins, and
three months of NBA League Pass.
Speaker 3 (23:32):
For new customers.
Speaker 4 (23:33):
To get started, use code favorites when signing up with DraftKings.
That's code favorites when signing up with DraftKings for three
months of NBA League Pass and three hundred dollars back
in bonus bets. If your bet wins, the crown is yours.
Speaker 2 (23:45):
All right, Kendra, what do you got? Where are you
planting your flag?
Speaker 1 (23:51):
Flag?
Speaker 6 (23:52):
And a shut up.
Speaker 3 (23:53):
I'm trying to plant my flag here. Okay, you're really
planning your flag in that thing.
Speaker 4 (23:57):
We were filling out our notes what's the same time
early and typed in the same game, and I decided
to pivot, and I'm gonna let you have it just
in case it's wrong. I want to say that this
slate feels like fools gold because it feels so good.
It feels like an easy slate to be able to
gamble on, which is what makes me think that I
might not have the best week because it feels too
(24:18):
good to be true.
Speaker 3 (24:19):
However, I think I'm gonna go with the Bears.
Speaker 4 (24:22):
Stucky alluded to the point that the Bears defense has
not been what some of us expected. It's, you know,
highest caliber to be so far this season. They're playing
the Bengals, though I get that the Bengals. Joe Flacco's
had some chemistry with Jamar Chase. They're kind of progressing
a way, but they're just unreliable. I think that what's
gonna happen is the Bears are going to be able
(24:43):
to outscore that offense, regardless of the chemistry that they have.
The Bears are the better team, don't think too hard
about it. The Bengals are a bad team. They need
Joe Burrow, They're beaten up, they're discouraged. I'm going with
the Bears. I'm closing my eyes and I'm just hitting
the smash button. I'm like that lizard and like that
Disney meme that was going aro.
Speaker 3 (25:00):
For a while. That's just like lizard, Lizard, Lizard. That's
me with this game.
Speaker 4 (25:03):
I can't even think about it. It just it's what
feels right. It feels the best to me. I'm going
with it, closing my eyes.
Speaker 1 (25:09):
I'm just worried about what Chase is going to do
to the secondary. But that's why I bought the points up.
Can't talk you off of the Bears minus the two
and a half. Stucky you where you at?
Speaker 2 (25:17):
Yeah?
Speaker 5 (25:17):
I haven't bet anything yet this week. There's a lot
of favorites that I think are a little overvalued. I
don't know if I'll get to Maybe that's as a
result of this past week. I think favorites had their
best day and best weekend in twenty five years or something.
Speaker 2 (25:32):
Eleven ats this week a.
Speaker 3 (25:34):
Good season for him.
Speaker 5 (25:36):
None were even close, So I think there's a couple
that are overvalued. I haven't played anything yet, but I'll
just go back to what I said before. I can't
get to this cold Steelers number. So I'll plan my
flag on the Steelers plus three minus one to five.
But wait, I think you're going to get to three
and a half. So but I'll plan my flag now
on the Steelers. The Bears Bengals, I mean you Kenjri,
(25:57):
you might also not get Flacco, could be browning Flacco's
younger shoulder injuries day to day, so that would be beneficial.
The Bears, I mean there they're secondaries and just such shambles.
We'll see if Stevenson can come back. But Gordon and
Johnson on I are but the Bears should be able
to move the ball. On the Bengals, I mean the
Jets with a bunch of backup receivers and at Justin
Field's put a five hundred yards. That's right insane. So
(26:19):
the Bengals defense is pathetic. Their offensive line is still bad.
I mean that should be a shootout, but there is
a chance that Flacco doesn't go, and it's clearly a
downgrade when when Browning is in there. But like some
other games that I think are a little too high,
I mean the Giant s Niners. I mean, I gotta
wait on the injury report there. Let's see maybe if we.
Speaker 3 (26:42):
Talked about how Joe Flacco did a toush push. Though
that old man did the toush push, anybody.
Speaker 2 (26:50):
Could do it.
Speaker 5 (26:50):
Any everyone needs to adopt a sneak. I'm interested in
the Cardinals at three. I do think the Lions are
a tad too high. See what their secondary looks like.
I just think that should be seven. The Titans are
too high, But am I going to bet them? I
don't know. I doubt it. I do think the Falcons
are too high right now. But I need more clarity
(27:13):
on the injury situation. Like I need Panics back, I
need London back. A couple of defenders would help. And yeah,
I think that's about it on the radar for now.
Speaker 1 (27:23):
How about the Carolina Panthers. That's thinking about putting them.
Speaker 3 (27:26):
I thought about them too.
Speaker 2 (27:28):
I never thought I would say this. I need Bryce
young Beck.
Speaker 5 (27:34):
They also had more offense. They had a couple offensive
line and more offensive line injuries last week, and they're
already down offensive linemen. Derek Brown is like so important.
Their defense got hurt. Their defense had a couple injuries,
like their Rundy has been really good, had a couple injuries,
and the Bills did whatever they wanted. So I would
be a little cautious.
Speaker 3 (27:52):
There, Andy asked Dalton. I can't do it.
Speaker 5 (27:55):
You don't want to.
Speaker 2 (27:56):
I'm betting.
Speaker 1 (27:57):
I'm not betting on Andy Dalton three turnovers last week.
He looks beyond washed. I play at the flag game, though,
I was thinking about the well not to think. I've
already bet the Detroit Lions at minus eight and a half.
That number is not going anywhere. But uh, but I'm
gonna go with the forty nine ers minus two and
a half. I am over the Max Jones experience. We
(28:17):
might be getting Brock Purty back. I would love that
nice bounce back opportunity after getting dominated by a desperate
Houston team and the Giants are falling apart. The neighbors
injury was a big blow to the offense. I think
the Scataboo injury hurts their identity. Yeah, I think it's
much worse in terms of what and I mean the
the unquantifiable swag that him and Jackson Dart had. There's
(28:42):
a reason why Dart had the reaction he did when
when he saw Skataboo's leg twisted all sorts of ways.
I think that might have been the straw that broke
the Campbell's back. The Giants were a nice story.
Speaker 3 (28:51):
But it was fine.
Speaker 2 (28:53):
Yeah it was. It was a lot of fun.
Speaker 1 (28:54):
But this is a big bounce back spot for about it.
Solidarity Bears minus two and a half is in the
plant the flag spread here forty nine Ers minus two
and a half and the Steelers plus three, but Stucky
advising that you wait until you get the plus three
and a half. Those are a plant. The Flag Games
(29:16):
presented by DraftKings. Now time for the main event. No
betting week can start without it. It's the primer courtesy
of Evan Abrams. Yeah, into the show, Evan, how much
fun have you had listening to us yell at each other?
Speaker 6 (29:30):
So you guys said eleven and two ats or favorites.
That was in week eight, best win percentage for favorites
in a single week since December of eighty five. I
think the crazy thing is all eleven favorites covered by
seven plus points, which is the most I've seen in
a week in over thirty years. So really insane in
the fact that no game was even close for other
(29:50):
than the two upsets. The other note favorites thirty three
and ten straight up the last three weeks, so dogs
really not even winning on the mon as well in
that span. In terms of everything else, the one thing
you might notice from the slate this week is a
lot of high totals. So right now we have five
(30:10):
totals of fifty plus that would be the most since
Week ten of twenty twenty one at this point, and
we even have a few in the forty eight and
forty nine, so have to see how that goes. But yeah,
a lot of high totals this week. A few other
things I'll just throw at you. GoF eight to zero
against the spread versus the Vikings with the Lions. Wow,
he is absolutely dominated. Minnesota.
Speaker 2 (30:33):
Oh love Tennessee.
Speaker 6 (30:35):
We talk about this all the time, But got to
say it. They've lost eleven straight ats at home, so
they are getting ten points against Harbaugh, who usually crushes
on these road trips out east in Central does really
really well with those Chargers teams. But boy is at
a high number. And here's the best one. Colts and
Ravens can both cash their win totals this week. Colts
(30:57):
can go over seven and a half, Ravens can go
under eleven and a half.
Speaker 2 (31:00):
With a loss.
Speaker 6 (31:01):
And it is only week nine, so can't wait for
that stuff.
Speaker 1 (31:05):
Wow, that's really good stuff. Do you have anything on
the Patriots? This feels like they're tied right now with
the Broncos in terms of winning streaks in the NFL,
but they're also doing it in terms of covering the number.
They're on the heater of all heaters right now. Is
there a cell point for them? Is there anything in
(31:26):
the primer this week about hey, ease up on trying
to tail this team as trees don't grow to the sky.
Speaker 6 (31:36):
I feel like I kind of just used the same
stat I used last week because I went one in
one with Chicago and New England. But the fact that
teams are a four plus game straight at Ats who
didn't make the playoffs fifteen and twenty seven against the
number two and fifteen since twenty twenty two. So at
some point New England comes back to the mean. But
the crazier thing is those MVP odds. Drake May opens
(31:57):
the year at fifty to one, but crazy thing. Entering
Week five he was one hundred to one and now
he's five to one. So that is a massive, massive
correction based off the season that he's had so far,
two thousand passing yards, seventy five percent completion percentage to
eight games. Only Drew Brees in twenty eighteen pulled that off,
(32:18):
so what he's been doing is really really crazy. I
think the other thing when it comes to this game
is Atlanta Outdoors has been pretty bad, and I think
it's a little bit different in terms of how they've
performed zero to two this year, but losing by twenty
points per game an outdoor game since twenty twenty just
eleven and eighteen, So maybe a bit of a tough
(32:38):
spot there.
Speaker 1 (32:39):
Damn because Stucky, this feels like the ultimate buy opportunity.
This is this is the kind of game that you
bet on with the Falcons plus the five and a half.
They just got blown out by a bad Dolphins team.
Ultimate sell high. Everybody is on their knees for the
New England Patriots right now. I'd be surprised if you're not.
Speaker 5 (33:00):
I needed injuries like I need. I need Panics, I
need I need London. I need some of the defenders
back or at least a couple.
Speaker 1 (33:06):
Yeah, great stuff, Evan, appreciate it. Make sure you go
and check out the primer Actionnetwork dot com or on
the Action Network app, and that will do it for
today's episode special thanks to our producers David Paine and
Gifford Gold. The Favorites will return on Thursday, two days
from now, day before Halloween.
Speaker 2 (33:25):
So maybe we have to wear costumes, guys.
Speaker 1 (33:26):
We'll hash that out on our slack channel Action Network
YouTube pages where you can find us. We will talk
week nine best bets on Thursday, plus our two Kings
and a Queen parlay.
Speaker 2 (33:36):
We'll see her here right here.
Speaker 1 (33:37):
Next time on the Favorites presented by DraftKings wear Out.
Speaker 3 (33:50):
Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or
someone you care about has a gambling problem. Help is
available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler
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