November 4, 2025 • 52 mins
The Favorites is back for a look at NFL Week 10! Action Network experts Stuckey, Kendra Middleton and Brandon Kravitz get in the weeds early in the week after hitting their last two parlays! Tuesday brings the NFL trade deadline where Kendra's Jags have already made a move for Jacoby Meyers. Keep an eye on the players moving and odds reacting. Stuckey's advice is to be patient when getting your bets in! Plus, the crew each plants their flag on a game in NFL Week 10, where we have another head-to-head with some fancy cheese on the line. Finally, we get some nuggets from the weekly NFL Primer courtesy of Action Director of Research Evan Abrams, delivering everything needed to start digging into the betting week in the NFL.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:09):
Welcome to the Favorites, presented by DraftKings. The Crown is yours.
We are an Action Network podcast. I'm Brandon Kravitz. The
crew is back on this fine Tuesday morning. Kendra Middleton
and the Prime Minister Stucky. On today's episode, We've got
our plant the Flag game for week ten, a breakdown
of the top storylines, and of course the main event
(00:30):
evans Tuesday primer. You can't start a betting week without it.
Kendra on the Sunday Night episode, I reference the speed
in which this country turns the page from Halloween to Christmas.
It's quite admirable when you think about the expeditiousness that
we as a society act like. You can't find a
(00:51):
fucking pumpkin anywhere and Halloween's been over for a day.
Do you think it's admirable or obnoxious how quickly we
switch gears from one holiday to the next.
Speaker 2 (01:03):
It's obnoxious.
Speaker 3 (01:04):
I'm a Thanksgiving truther, as I'm sure most of the
people in this podcast are, because we're food in football people.
I hate Christmas. It's the worst holiday in my opinion.
I know that that's a hot take. Christmas is dumb.
Let us have let us Thanksgiving people have a second
Put your decorations up the day after Thanksgiving and you
can keep them up until fucking Valentine's Day if you want,
but leave us alone. Let me have my football, Let
(01:26):
me enjoy fall for five more minutes until I, as
someone who lives in Boston, wait for the impending doom
of darkness and cold.
Speaker 2 (01:33):
Let me push it off for half an hour.
Speaker 3 (01:35):
Go away, go away, shut up, shut up, shut up,
go away, go away.
Speaker 1 (01:39):
Christmas is really two separate holidays in the country, in
the world. There's the religious one and then there's the
commercial one.
Speaker 3 (01:47):
And.
Speaker 2 (01:49):
I hate them both.
Speaker 4 (01:51):
I'm not a very religious person, but the commercial one
I'm here for. I love it. I'm happy.
Speaker 2 (01:55):
I'm so bad at buying gifts.
Speaker 3 (01:57):
If I ever have to buy any of you a gift,
just gonna overnight you a live lobster.
Speaker 2 (02:01):
And I'm not joking.
Speaker 3 (02:02):
I send someone in my family a live lobster every
single year. Nobody knows who's gonna get it. Somebody gets lobstered.
It's what If I ever have to send you guys
a gift, just know what's going.
Speaker 2 (02:12):
To be that I'm the worst gift to give for.
Speaker 3 (02:14):
It's too much pressure, and I like, I love people,
but that is not my thing.
Speaker 2 (02:18):
I can't.
Speaker 1 (02:19):
No, no, send Stucky some crab cakes for me instead,
because I still send.
Speaker 5 (02:26):
I gotta send you my address.
Speaker 3 (02:28):
Well I want my I want my head to head again,
Stucky the other day.
Speaker 5 (02:31):
So yeah, we didn't bet anything.
Speaker 4 (02:35):
Wasted opportunity, guys, the Yeah.
Speaker 5 (02:39):
I really don't care about the holidays. I love Thanksgiving,
love Christmas, but like my he, I don't have time
to worry my holidays as soon.
Speaker 1 (02:46):
As you don't put anything up for any of these. No,
we have between your college basketball and college football bets.
Speaker 5 (02:53):
We have people that put up stuff. But like, like
you know, I told you that there's people that come
over and do my in law's house like it's like
a people drive to see it. They were out there
the other day said putting up the Christmas lights and
all the like, telling you it takes like three days
they come over and put stuff up in our house.
But like it's otherwise to her, My mother in law
(03:18):
would be like ridiculously upset if we didn't decorate. So
they she basically gets people to decorate for us. But no,
once Thanksgiving changes, I mean once after Halloween. It's my holidays.
College basketball, Like, I'm trying to keep my head on
straight every day, transitioning from one hour's NFL, the next
(03:39):
hour's college football, the next hour's college basketball. Repeat. They
repeat that six seven times a day, every day. Try
to find an hour nap and keep going.
Speaker 3 (03:50):
Well, it's a Christmas scarf, that's it. Those are my decorations.
Speaker 1 (03:53):
I did have in my secret notes over here that
I wanted a mental health check on Stucky because my god,
this time of year for you, college football, college basketball
just started. I was watching Arizona in Florida last night.
But you're putting out content for all of this on
top of what we do in the NFL.
Speaker 4 (04:12):
So this is just a you good?
Speaker 5 (04:15):
Are you doing this for forever? It's labor of love.
But yeah, the hardest part is college basketball is so
much harder now. Markets obviously get a little morefficient over time,
but just the same thing happens in college football. Like
the prep for these sports used to be so much easier,
but now with the roster turnovers and the transfer portal.
Speaker 2 (04:35):
The NIL ruined everything.
Speaker 5 (04:37):
More teams keeping track and like adjusting these teams and
then keeping track of injuries on top of that, Like
just keeping track of the NFL injuries is hard enough.
Now doing that for college basketball and college football. Yeah,
there's not a second that goes by in the day
where that's not all I'm thinking of in November and December.
(04:57):
Literally not a second. So yeah, but I love it.
It's just like the ultimate grind, and I just fully
immersed myself in it. So anyway, last night we hit
our we hit our parlay again, back to back days,
Cardinals get started nuts McBride. I'm glad we can ensure McBride.
Speaker 4 (05:19):
I love it.
Speaker 1 (05:19):
And by the way, the first comment we get on
Twitter is some clown going, I never tell you guys. Okay,
well that has not been a profitable opinion. Over the
last two days, we are six and oher on our
biggest bets that we've given out on this podcast.
Speaker 4 (05:37):
So I had a.
Speaker 3 (05:38):
Perfect weekend this weekend. Everybody can suck mead Ry.
Speaker 5 (05:43):
No time for gloating. It's stay humble, keep grinding. But
McBride twenty one games with Kyler Murray two touchdowns, last
three games without them four touchdowns. He obviously benefits from Brissette.
The entire offense looks much better. Uh, I don't think
we're gonna hot take. I don't think we see Calamary
(06:04):
again this year unless Prissette gets hurt. And I was
screaming from the mountaintops. The Cardinals are not bad. The
Cardinals are a better team than the Cowboys.
Speaker 2 (06:13):
Well, I was gonna say.
Speaker 3 (06:14):
Are the Cardinals better than the public thought?
Speaker 2 (06:17):
Or are the Cowboys more asked than everybody thought? That
was my big question.
Speaker 5 (06:22):
Both.
Speaker 4 (06:22):
Yeah, I would go both on that.
Speaker 5 (06:24):
Yeah. I mean, like everyone is like, oh, the Cowboys
are so scary at home, Like they didn't they they
they should have lost to Russell Wilson at home. You know,
they beat the Shell Commanders team. That's it. They blew
them out. That's like this. This defense is among the
worst in the league. And the Cardinals defense, now that
(06:44):
it's healthy, you got they were playing. It's one of
the most the most well schemed defenses in the league
with their three three high safety looks. Now you add
and they had a bunch of injuries, but now that
they have will Johnson looks incredible as a corner you know,
Meltman William back at cornerback. Walter Nolan made his NFL
debut the first round draft pick, well, I thought was
(07:06):
kind of a steal. I thought he should have won
the top ten. He looked great. You add him to
that front, and then on top of that, with Persett
in the mix, the entire offense looks so much better.
There's actually a passing element, and Harrison looks so much better.
McBride is more involved. So this is a team that
(07:26):
I think is still undervalued. I mean that they lost
five games in a row by four points or less,
and they easily could have been five and two instead
of two and five. And yeah, it's a team that
I'll be looking to continue to back, especially if it's
per Set that remains in there, which I think he will.
Speaker 1 (07:44):
And we have that opportunity stucky, because the Cardinals are
plus six and a half against the Seattle Seahawks over
on DraftKings as it stands right now, Yeah, are we
gonna want are we going to take a bite of
that apple?
Speaker 3 (07:58):
Or you need to talk about we need to talk
about something before we talk about that, because I think
we need to start predicting who are going to be
buyers and sellers today because and people might be listening
to that after But I think that this Cardinals team
could probably be a seller.
Speaker 2 (08:14):
Think about how many teams right now.
Speaker 3 (08:16):
Are desperate for a tight end, Like tight ends have
become just such a luxury in this league, which I
never thought that I would say when I was a kid,
And now here we are. There are some of the
you know, most prominent pass catchers and a lot of
these offenses they do everything. They're underpaid, they're underappreciated. I
think the Cardinals might be sellers. We need to think
about that while we're previewing some of these games today,
(08:37):
because I see that we're going to talk about Thursday
Night football too. I think the Raiders are going to
be sellers. So before we get here, like, do you
guys think that the Cardinals are gonna be sellers, especially
with this Jacoby Brissett Kyler Murray situation.
Speaker 2 (08:49):
I'm in the camp of yes, No.
Speaker 5 (08:53):
I think I do not think so. I think that
came out yesterday and said they're not going.
Speaker 4 (08:58):
To they're only two games back on a wild card spot.
Speaker 5 (09:02):
Yeah, they're there, especially they won yesterday. The only person
they're gonna I did my trade is Kyler Murray, and
I think they're better with Berssette I do too.
Speaker 2 (09:14):
Who's the third string?
Speaker 5 (09:17):
Oh, it's probably like, uh, who's the he's dreadful.
Speaker 2 (09:21):
I'm looking it up.
Speaker 3 (09:22):
Uh, it is Cadence Lovas. So they can't trade.
Speaker 5 (09:27):
They're done anyway. It depends on what they get.
Speaker 1 (09:32):
You can always imagine saying that at the start of
the season, if Brissett goes down, the Cardinals are done.
Speaker 4 (09:37):
I would have loved to crystal balls.
Speaker 2 (09:40):
Cardinals are already done.
Speaker 5 (09:42):
I don't think so. I think they're gonna try to
make a run. I mean it's a team that could
play with anyone. They went to Indianapolis and was were
right there to win. They almost beat Green Bay, they
should have beat the forty nine ers. They just went
into Dallas and destroyed them from I mean destroy them
start to finish. I think they can make a run
at the wild Card. So I don't think that they're
(10:02):
going to sell other than Kyler Murray. And I think
the other thing is with this week's matchup against Seattle,
which is a huge game for them, and they have
they have some winnable game, like you want to see,
can they get the nine wins like they have the
Jags at home, the Niners at home, after this, uh, Texans, Falcons,
Bengals still on their schedule, so there's some winnable games
(10:27):
now if you look back historically, the Seahawks, while I'm
one hundred percent, I was so mad last right after
that game ended last night that people came in and
bought the Cardinals plus seven and I had a notification
up and I got it and I couldn't get to
the Cardinals in time. I'm hopefully we see a seven
again this week and then I'll be interested. The Seahawks
(10:48):
have so because I think still think Arizona's defense is
extremely underrated. Uh and I mean going into Dallas and
shutting down that offense. I mean, dak that off was
had zero points to the fourth quarter. That's impressive. And
now that their corners back, they have no one like
I mentioned, and then I think the offense is still
undervalued because of the percent and just the perception of
this team as well from who they actually are. But
(11:10):
they've really struggled with Seattle in the past, and most
of that has been because I mean, because you look
back at that game in Arizona earlier this year, they
were they did as good of a job on anyone
against Seattle's offense who's been I mean, Sam Darnold has
been the best quarterback in the league statistically. The game
was twenty to twenty at the end, and then they
botched the kickoff Seahawks get a field goal. The biggest
(11:32):
problem that Arizona has had against the Seahawks is Kyler.
Murray has been horrendous the last two years. In particular,
McDonald has his number. They get so much pressure on
him and he can't do it. Per set has been
so much better under pressure. Their plaction rates have gone up.
(11:53):
So yeah, I think that this is probably the highest
we're going to be on Seattle. Like, I think that
they could be a top five team like I have them,
That's where I have them now. But I think this
is a perfect like Bylos Still Bilo on the Cardinals
and so on.
Speaker 2 (12:07):
I think they're the best team in the NFC. I
really do.
Speaker 4 (12:10):
You can make that case right now the way they're
playing on both sides.
Speaker 1 (12:13):
By the way Kyler two and nine straight up three
and eight ats in his career against the Seattle Seahawks.
Speaker 4 (12:20):
So yeah.
Speaker 5 (12:20):
Morely, his numbers are awful, like, uh, horrendous.
Speaker 1 (12:25):
Well, I want to stay on this trade deadline topic
that's at four o'clock today Tuesday. If you're listening to this,
it's part of our top three storylines heading into Week ten,
one of which I want to talk about Jayden Daniels
and his injury and some of these teams at the
top of anybody's power rankings taking ls.
Speaker 4 (12:43):
But let's play a quick.
Speaker 1 (12:45):
Game of nominate one team that you desperately want to
see make a move today in either direction, either sellers buyers. Kendra,
is there a team for you that you want to
see make a move today in either direction?
Speaker 3 (13:02):
Obviously I want the Jaguars to go for Quinn Williams
and Jacoby Meyers, but outside of them, I.
Speaker 2 (13:08):
Think I'd like to see the Colts be buyers. Even
though we're in the same division.
Speaker 3 (13:12):
I've come to grips with the fact that this is
just not a Jags season. And I know that I'm
supposed to hate everybody in the division and she're it
against them whatever, But they're just such a fun team.
They're so easy to root for. A lot of good
like storyline lines on the team. I'm just kind of like,
for one season, f it whatever, let the Colts be good.
If I have to go outside of the division. You
(13:33):
guys know, I'm gonna say the P words. I'm gonna
go with the Panthers and the Patriots. I want to party.
I want the Patriots to be good as much as
I hate them and they ruined my life in twenty seventeen.
I'm making more money when the Patriots are good. I'm
partying more when the Patriots are good. The city's a
lot more fun.
Speaker 2 (13:49):
Whatever.
Speaker 3 (13:49):
Go Patriots, Go, Panthers, Jags, Go get Quinn Williams and
Jacoby Myers and I'll have a good day. I'll go
buy a lottery ticket. I'm going to a nice dinner tonight.
I'll wear some high heels. I'll make it sexy for you.
Speaker 4 (14:00):
Do it.
Speaker 2 (14:00):
For the love of God, please go get Quinn Williams.
Speaker 1 (14:03):
All reasons to be in the camp of Kendri Middleton today.
Speaker 4 (14:07):
Stucky, what about you?
Speaker 5 (14:09):
I mean my Ravens Like so, they traded Jai Year,
Free Upsimore cap Room the one. Now they're fully healthy
on offense, arguably the best offense in the league now,
and especially as Lamar gets healthier and healthier. The defense
still top three. Secondary. You got Roquebon back healthy, the
biggest glaring weakness on the team by a million miles
(14:32):
is the defensive line because of the injuries and because
of the loss of Matabuke. So I want to see
edc to cost to go out and get I mean
the dream would be like the dream even I mean
that a realistic dream. I don't know if they would
sell him, but Dexter Lawrence if they made a big
(14:53):
splash trade for Dexter Lawrence.
Speaker 3 (14:56):
You're not worried about the production that he's had this
year though, because a lot of people on like you know,
the big mainstream stuff have been bitching at him.
Speaker 2 (15:03):
But I love sexy DEXI.
Speaker 5 (15:04):
Oh, he's still one of the best in the league.
And then you get him into a like a winning
culture and a win a winning team, I think you'll
you'll get a.
Speaker 2 (15:14):
I don't think Giants will let him go.
Speaker 5 (15:16):
Though, depends on the price. Every everyone has a everyone
has a price for anything.
Speaker 4 (15:21):
So like solid debass reference right there.
Speaker 5 (15:24):
Yeah, the so like depends like the Giants need to
build for the future so that they think that they
have Dark Dart, they think they have their franchise quarterback,
so you know, getting rid of some big contracts, getting
some draft picks and then building up that youth could
be the direction that they take. But the Giants are
(15:47):
in a weird place. Like what it now that they
think they found their quarterback with Dart does that mean
Dable stays and sticks around?
Speaker 2 (15:55):
So I don't know what I WoT you give them.
Speaker 5 (15:58):
I have no idea. That's not my specialty. But like
you could, I have no I have no clue, Like
the right comp of draft picks would be. It wouldn't
be players, it would just be draft picks.
Speaker 4 (16:06):
And then all that stuff is so contract dependent too.
Speaker 2 (16:10):
I just I don't know.
Speaker 3 (16:11):
I mean, we don't even have to talk about who
or what. But it's more so just like I don't
think you're gonna deal a trade like that the team
dealing with so many injuries without giving them bodies.
Speaker 5 (16:19):
Maybe, But the Giants' issues aren't on the defensive line,
like they have.
Speaker 3 (16:22):
Depth there no I know, but they need but it.
Speaker 5 (16:25):
Doesn't have to They could throw someone in that's someone.
Speaker 3 (16:28):
That's yeah, I was gonna say, it doesn't have to
be like on the defensive line.
Speaker 2 (16:31):
They just need to carry someone.
Speaker 5 (16:32):
In the secondary. That's there's there's options, but that's regardless
I just want to see the Ravens go get defensive
line help because if they do, I think in five weeks,
because I think they're probably gonna go four and one
or five and oh over the next five games. People
are most people are gonna have them power rated number
(16:56):
one in the league again. But they have to address
to this line because there's still a little vulnerable against
the run because of it, and they also can't generate
pressure right now because of it. So it's hurting them
on multiple fronts. And it's really like it's ultimately what
would hold them back if they do end up making
(17:18):
the playoffs, because I mean, right now, their defensive line
with Washington Ladabuque and you know, I mean others on
IR they trade it all away. It's Travis Jones, John Jenkins,
and Brent Herban as your starters, like Peebles as your backup.
Like that's not going to get it done up front.
So that is what I'm watching by far. The Ravens
(17:41):
need to get help there.
Speaker 1 (17:42):
I have a fun one that I think is going
to make most people that are listening throw up in
their mouths because I think a lot of people are
overseeing the Kansas City Chiefs win, but that team for
years has needed a solid running back stop relying on
old man in Kareem Hunt or below average Isaiah Pacheco.
(18:04):
There are two teams in the AFC East that should
be sellers right now, the Jets and the Dolphins, and
both of them have sub elite running backs Devon h
Chan Breeze Hall. I would love to see Kansas City
make a move on a.
Speaker 2 (18:20):
Guy was gonna move all year. I've been saying this, Yeah.
Speaker 4 (18:25):
Got to do it.
Speaker 1 (18:26):
They've just lying on these shitty running backs for years.
Now give my homes some.
Speaker 5 (18:30):
He I'm curious to see what. Yeah, Like, I'm curious
to the things I'm most curious about. Is Hendrickson gonna move?
I mean, if you're the Bengals.
Speaker 2 (18:46):
Like, well, they already made a move today.
Speaker 5 (18:49):
I know they traded Logan Wilson, but he's already benched.
But like only Jerry Jones could find the diamond and
there off the bench linebacker on one of the worst
defenses in the issue of the league. So yeah, dude,
does Hendrickson get moved because he could provide a major
boost for some team that really needs an edge rush
and like just giving up yeah, I mean, like the
(19:12):
deep what is there, Like even with Hendrickson, they're still
like the worst defense in the league. Like it just
they need picks, and although they.
Speaker 3 (19:17):
Can't draft, that's well, my whole thing is that, like
we saw what Joe Burrow did last year and kind
of in a similar situation.
Speaker 2 (19:23):
He came out and was just an.
Speaker 3 (19:25):
Absolute gun slinger almost you know, had them a like
comeback story for the Ages at the end of last year,
and I think that they're probably hoping for that again.
Speaker 5 (19:34):
I mean, but it's how much different gonna look like
they're They had Hendrickson last year played at all pro level
this year, I mean, Flacco just threw for five hundred
yards and they lost to the Bears at home, like
and they continue.
Speaker 4 (19:47):
I'm with you, just.
Speaker 5 (19:48):
They can't win anything with this defense. But then again,
like you have Burrow under contract and Chase and Higgins,
like the Bengals are just they're a horrendously run organization
and the main reason, and their owner is terrible, the
reason is they cannot draft. Go back and look, i
mean Barrow fell into their laps. They've had a couple
offensive players just fall into their laps. But go look
at their offensive line draft picks, their defensive draft picks.
(20:12):
They've all been complete disasters. That's top down organization, down
at the scouting and it's it's it's all a dumpster fire.
The teams that I think are going to sell that,
And you want to be careful about betting these teams
on this week, in particular early in the week. By
the time you're listening to this, you'll have most of
the news. But just keep this in mind in the future.
But the Saints are probably up there. You know, you
(20:32):
could see guys like a Lave Shaheed, maybe some defenders
get moved. I would imagine the Dolphins are in like
we already saw Phillips move, GM gone interim like fire
sale mode.
Speaker 2 (20:50):
Just think Wattle will go what's that you think will
go for.
Speaker 5 (20:55):
The right price? Sure, I think that they're they they
they trade anyone on the roster right now.
Speaker 4 (21:01):
Including to us. I think that you're not gonna.
Speaker 5 (21:04):
Get anyone for two. Someone's gonna take that contract.
Speaker 4 (21:07):
No, hear me out. Hear me out.
Speaker 1 (21:08):
Obviously you're not going to trade to it and get
something for him. But if you pair him with I
think they'd have to trade him with something like a
second round pick, just to have a team that feels
like they can revive his career, take on the contract.
I do think that's something that they will maybe not now,
I don't know they ever explore.
Speaker 5 (21:27):
Yeah, I I just don't know how if you're any
serious team. So, I mean there are some unseerious teams.
I mean, what what is too has a four He
has a four year, two hundred and fifteen million dollar contract,
and so.
Speaker 4 (21:41):
You're gonna have to pay somebody to take it.
Speaker 5 (21:43):
But the other thing is like taking that on with
his when you his career could end it any in
any game, like with his concussion issues too, Like you
got to keep that in mind. So, but yeah, I
think the Dolphins are in complete fire sale mode. I'm
curious to see what the Jets do because they're definitely
a Kennedy so and in the Browns obviously Browns are
(22:07):
in in trade mode.
Speaker 3 (22:10):
So I hope Miles I hope Miles Garrett goes. That'd
be so good for him.
Speaker 5 (22:14):
I don't think he's they'd they'd ever trade him. He's
like the face of the city.
Speaker 2 (22:20):
Craviat if it makes you feel any better. The Jags
did get Rid of that.
Speaker 3 (22:23):
Nick Foles contract, so maybe they can get rid of
to us.
Speaker 1 (22:26):
Hey, any anything is possible, Like Stuck, he said, it's
it's all about the price.
Speaker 4 (22:32):
If you pay tidy to do it, they might just
take it.
Speaker 5 (22:36):
Trade Jeffrey Simmons is a like he is. If the
Raid's got Jeffrey Simmons, Oh man, I would you'd see
me streaking down my street. You'd see me actually leave
my house in November.
Speaker 3 (22:50):
This is from from the production Oh my god, Jacksonville
Jaguars trading for Jacoby Myers.
Speaker 4 (22:54):
Is that? Is that an opinion or is that news?
I'm trying to know it's news.
Speaker 2 (22:57):
Adam Schefter two minutes ago.
Speaker 5 (22:58):
Oh yeah, we're gonna start to get news in the
next couple of hours. I think what is the deadline
to Eastern n Myers? That's a good get. Yeah, I
didn't mentioned the Raiders, four and six, the Bronco, the
Lucky Broncos. How many more breaks they're gonna get? They
get the Raiders after OT on a short weekend while
they're selling their team off. There's you know what's an
(23:23):
interesting one is do the Chargers try to like they're
in this and now with Joe Ald out for the year,
like they cannot win the Super Bowl with the state
of their offensive line. So do they just say, like,
we'll get our tackles back next year and really go
(23:43):
after plug some of the holes we have, or do
they say, you know, we're in this a FC race,
let's go get tackle help.
Speaker 4 (23:52):
But the.
Speaker 5 (23:54):
Coming back, so it makes it tricky, like they're probably
coming back.
Speaker 4 (23:59):
They're coming back this year. All was placed on the
IR No, I think they're out for the year.
Speaker 1 (24:04):
Okay, then they should probably make a move. They're as
good as.
Speaker 5 (24:10):
Because tackles are expensive and you already have you know,
two potential All pro so you can't like go get
a premium tackle, but maybe you can add a vet.
But yeah, Slater torrest, Pateller tendency, he's out for the year.
And I believe Joe All was just ruled out of
the season. Let me say, uh, yeah, he's he's gonna
(24:32):
have a season ending surgery high ankle injury, which is
so unfortunate, Like you see the difference between him and
there and him out of there by the way. Something
i'lso keep in mind, just while it's on my mind.
If you're looking at NFL lines. This week. One of
the trickiest games on the entire board is Lions commanders.
You have Luvu suspended, now you have all the Washington
defensive injuries. I don't know mclaurin's status. You're gonna Marriot
(24:52):
to starting, but the Lions could they had they just
placed their Mahogany on ir, they might be without Sewell
and Decker. So I don't know who wins that matchup
of the Washington The biggest pillow fight of the weekend,
the Washington backup defensive lines versus the Lions backup offensive line,
because if they're without their tackles and one of their guards, like,
(25:15):
it's ugly. And the Lions offense the way, people aren't
talking about this enough. Lions offense since October first, twenty
fourth in success rate, eighteenth in EPA per play, twenty
ninth in rush success rate. You know it's number one
over that span, Chicago Bears. So the only team's rushing
(25:37):
it worse right now, and it's barely than the Lions
since October first, And by the way, they played the
Bengals over that stretch, So that the Bears are the Texans,
the Browns and the Saints I believe maybe the Raiders
up there, but it's been bad. The offense is not
what is that. It's the loss of Ben Johnson and
(26:01):
the offensive line. You saw that against Minnesota. Talked about
this last week, but the offensive line, and you know
Decker hasn't been healthy. The interior is worse, and now
you have the backup to Maogany is horrendous. But if
you were at Soul, you know, one of the two
best tackles. I don't know how that happens with that
Washington game, is uh, that's a crazy one.
Speaker 4 (26:22):
So well, we happened.
Speaker 1 (26:23):
We happen to have a pick on that later on
in the episode, and we'll get to that momentarily. Someone
in on the chat here internally said Jacoby Meers, not
Jerry Rice, So just keep that in mind. I mean,
they need Are you still processing this? This is a
big move for your team.
Speaker 2 (26:43):
I'm honestly not sweating it at all.
Speaker 3 (26:45):
I get that he's on an expiring contract and giving
up a fourth for him sounds insane, But they have
two fourth round picks. It's going to be the higher
of the fourth round pick. They have so many sixth
round picks it's actually disgusting, Like, what the hell are
we going to do with all of them? Anyway, it
sounds to me like this is pro probably a move
because they're either going to trade BTJ or Hunters out
for the season.
Speaker 2 (27:04):
In Gladstone's we trust, here we go.
Speaker 3 (27:07):
I'm glad they're doing something and they're not just sitting
here and being passive.
Speaker 2 (27:10):
I'll take it. I don't care f them picks. Let's
do all we ride.
Speaker 4 (27:14):
We were about to get to some picks ourselves.
Speaker 1 (27:17):
The sports betting Variety, We're gonna take a look at
Thursday Night football first between the Raiders and the Broncos.
But first a word from our very own Kendres. We
chat about our great friends at DraftKings.
Speaker 3 (27:27):
The Favorites podcast has teamed up with DraftKings sportsbook, where
new customers can bet five dollars and get three hundred
back in bonus bets if your bet wins and three
months of NBA.
Speaker 2 (27:38):
League Pass to get started.
Speaker 3 (27:39):
Use promo code of Favorites when signing up with DraftKings. Again,
use Code Favorites when signing up and bet five bucks
to get three hundred back and bonus bets if your
bet wins plus three months of VA League pass.
Speaker 2 (27:50):
The crown is yours.
Speaker 4 (27:51):
Thursday Night Football Raiders at Broncos.
Speaker 5 (27:55):
Thursday Night Football.
Speaker 4 (27:56):
Broncos favored by nine and a half.
Speaker 2 (27:59):
At Denver Broncos.
Speaker 4 (28:02):
Then it went to eight and a half, then they
were back up to nine and a half. This morning.
Now it was back to eight and a half.
Speaker 1 (28:07):
And we continue to play ping pong with this spread
over under sitting at forty two and a half.
Speaker 4 (28:14):
Settled at forty two and a half.
Speaker 1 (28:16):
Denver is going to their throwbacks on Thursday, so factor
that into the spread as you.
Speaker 4 (28:21):
Wish, because those are some pretty sweet threads.
Speaker 2 (28:23):
Matter a half.
Speaker 1 (28:25):
I'm yeah, I look good, feel good, play good. I
love these teams that have these killer throwbacks. They always
seem to play up as silly as it sounds, but
the numbers actually back it up. They are three and
zero in this uniform combination since twenty twenty four, so
there's something to that. Broncos eight straight outright wins at home,
the Raiders off of an overtime loss to the Jaguars,
(28:47):
and on top of that, Las Vegas struggles to move
the ball twenty sixth in yards per play. Well, Denver's
defense is first in the league in yards per play allowed,
So should be a terrible matchup for the Raiders. With
all that give me Las Vegas in a divisional game
in prime time, I think we get a good, solid
(29:08):
effort here. I could go into more specifics, but I'll
let you guys dig into this one. I mean, it's
a market read as much as anything else. Every time
this number gets up to nine and a half, it
gets bought back down. So if you can get the
nine or nine and a half on the Raiders, I
feel like by the time we get to kick off,
there's gonna be some good CLV on that number.
Speaker 4 (29:29):
Stucky, how do you see it?
Speaker 5 (29:31):
I wouldn't bet this right now. I mean because you
got to see that the Raiders are selling right now,
so who knows who else they might move. Plus you're
kind of in a dead zone, you know, like getting
getting the getting above a nine. Who cares now that
I said it will nine? But and so the other
(29:52):
thing that I'm really worried about is the Raiders were
on the field. They're defensive on the field for forty
three minutes only the Saints were on the field more.
They had a bottom fifteen time of possession game in
the history of the NFL, the Raiders were just right
there because they went overtime, they played every possible minute.
Teams on a short week after overtime playing on Thursday
or Friday are six and twenty five against the spread,
(30:13):
six and twenty five all time, and they're failing to
cover by about six points per game. I believe it,
three and fourteen against the spread on the road, ortal spot.
Now you're going to altitude as well. Having said that,
if I get a ten here, like, I don't know
how much that's worth, Like I make it worth like
a point and a half, which is substantial. Complete guess
on my part, I don't really know what it's worth,
(30:34):
but historically you can look back and it's definitely worth something.
And your defense is probably going to be a little gas.
But I mean, this Broncos offense is I'm not laying
it with Denver. I just would like to get a
ten here. I also would like to see who the
Raiders if they move anybody else. The Denver defense also
isn't the same without certain we saw that early against
(30:54):
Houston before Stroud got hurt. So yeah, if I can
get a ten, I'd be in interested if not that ten.
Speaker 1 (31:01):
Isn't it doesn't look like the ten is coming because
every time this touches. I've been following this for the
last every time he touches.
Speaker 5 (31:08):
You can still a bigger but you could still a
bigger money come in later in the week and and
uh and the.
Speaker 4 (31:14):
Crazy moves then that would be problematic.
Speaker 5 (31:16):
Raiders could also move other guys. But this the spot
is really really bad for the Raiders. And like I
said before, bow Knicks does look good when he plays
you know, bottom tier defenses, and they did look.
Speaker 2 (31:30):
Like three quarters last week.
Speaker 5 (31:32):
Yeah, but he's playing a good defense. If you look
at bo Nick's numbers against any competent defense, especially elite defense,
he's among the worst quarterbacks in the league. Like I'm
like bottom bottom tier whenever he faces a really good defense,
but against the worst defenses. I think if you look
at all of his e p A this year, like
all all of his positives, it all came against the Bengals,
(31:55):
the Cowboys, uh, and the Raiders are they're not as bad,
but they're not too far behind. So yeah, I need
a ten here, and I want to see I need
more info in the Raiders.
Speaker 6 (32:07):
So I.
Speaker 2 (32:09):
Think the Raiders.
Speaker 3 (32:10):
I think the Raiders are definitely gonna make some serious moves.
Speaker 2 (32:13):
They've got to be sellers. Gina sucks. They're gonna need
a quarterback.
Speaker 3 (32:17):
I don't think that they're gonna hank far enough to
kind of beat out some of these other teams for
earlier picks. I could see Max Crosby being on the move.
My whole thing with this it feels like I said,
Bonix looked like a freakin idiot for three quarters last week,
and then in the fourth quarter it was like Bonus hour.
Speaker 2 (32:34):
My thing is the Broncos in this spot.
Speaker 3 (32:37):
Yes they're at home, but they feel like they're about
due for a loss, and a bad one.
Speaker 2 (32:42):
It's a divisional game.
Speaker 3 (32:43):
Divisional games are different anytime there's over at touched on
any divisional game in any other spot outside of the
trade deadline.
Speaker 2 (32:49):
If this were Thursday and this number.
Speaker 3 (32:50):
Was here, I'd probably be like, yeah, sure if this
team looks the same outside of Jacoby, yeah, Raiders. But
the thing is is that we don't know what it's
going to look like. I don't want to bet on
a team that I don't know what's gonna look like
two days from now, let alone a couple hours from now.
But the Raiders look like they're due for a win.
Broncos look like they're due for a loss. I hate
that it's a divisional game, and I don't know what
the Raiders are going to look like in a couple
of days.
Speaker 2 (33:10):
So for me right now, it's a pass.
Speaker 3 (33:12):
If this were Thursday and everything was as is right now,
I would probably get behind the Raiders. I just until
I have more information camp because it looks like the
Broncos are due for a loss.
Speaker 5 (33:22):
Yeah, but fair enough. I will say, like you're watching
the market and like once it goes to nine and
a half, it's come back to nine eight and a
half dripping up. Some of that is like you know
some big, some bigger money will take that buy a
cheap or a little expense of ten, so they don't
want it to get there. But then also when you
come down to eight and a half, you're gonna have
people teasing the Broncos, so it's probably gonna float.
Speaker 1 (33:46):
This did open at ten to that point, and we
have not seen that ten pop back.
Speaker 5 (33:51):
But you're at nine and a half now nine and
a half or nine. There's no harm in waiting because
this isn't going to go to seven. It's not going
to go to eight. Most likely it's not gonna go
to seven and a half, So I shouldn't say it's
not I don't think it is. So like if you
(34:12):
lock in nine, nine and a half and then it
goes to ten, you missed out on a secondary key
number if it never gets there, and say you have
to bet nine instead of nine and a half, Like
the percentage of games that land on nine in the
NFL heaven Uh.
Speaker 4 (34:33):
It's not so much about landing on nine, it's the eight.
Speaker 1 (34:37):
At this point, especially with the prominence of the two
point conversion, is becoming more key. I don't want I
want to be on the raiders and if this land,
if the number settles on eight, I'm gonna be I
would have been pissed that I didn't get the nine
or the nine and a half.
Speaker 4 (34:51):
That's where I'm at on this.
Speaker 5 (34:52):
I think it's worth it more to wait in this situation.
But I'm mainly giving higher commentary right to uh, more
general commentary to anyone listening. That's kind of new beginning,
like when you're around those key numbers, Like I'll pull
up a couple of games this week that I'm watching, like,
(35:13):
for example, Seattle Arizona, Like I want to bet Arizona
seven is obviously a key. I'm gonna sit and wait
for as long as I possibly can. You can go
to the action app and you can put a notification
on your good notification whenever it moves.
Speaker 4 (35:27):
Uh.
Speaker 5 (35:28):
And that way you don't have to sit in front
of an odd screen and watch and what else here.
Speaker 2 (35:36):
Great shout for the action app.
Speaker 4 (35:39):
Likescause that's why.
Speaker 5 (35:43):
Like eight and a half. Sometimes you'll see some books,
we'll move that up to prevent teasers, like I'm sure
a lot of people want to tease the Broncos down,
and then when it gets to there's probably some sharper money,
some numbers guys that want to bet that would love
to have the Raiders that have a reasonable ten. So
as a result, you're going to see some back and
(36:05):
forth here and then we'll see what the Raiders do.
But yeah, you can get a cheap eight and a
half on the Raiders at DraftKings right now. So I'm
not saying you're wrong, I'm just explaining the thinking.
Speaker 1 (36:18):
And we got a nice little nugget here in the
in the back end of the chat last five years,
twenty five games have fallen on nine. Fifty four have
fallen on eight, sixty two I have fallen on ten.
Speaker 5 (36:31):
Yeah, nine, you're rarely so I think we're going.
Speaker 1 (36:33):
To play this game too with Monday Night Football. We'll
get to that in a second.
Speaker 4 (36:37):
Time.
Speaker 1 (36:37):
To plant our flag for Week ten, presented by DraftKings,
the crown is yours.
Speaker 5 (36:46):
It Shut up, I'm trying to plant my flag here.
Speaker 1 (36:49):
Okay, you're really planning your flag in that deck, Tendra,
who will you be planting your flag on for Week ten?
As we look to stay hot this week on the favorites,
I got.
Speaker 3 (36:59):
A rock with the line probably my favorite game of
the week.
Speaker 2 (37:02):
I already bet it.
Speaker 3 (37:02):
Bet it last night. If you follow us on action,
you definitely got that notification. The Commanders are a bad team.
They've lost by a lot of points for a lot
of weeks now. They lost to the Seahawks thirty eight
fourteen obviously, Chiefs twenty eight to seven, the Cowboys forty
four to twenty two. Staydon Daniels is probably gonna miss
the rest of the season. I don't care what the
X rays said. There's no way in hell he comes
back from that. Did you guys watch what happened his arm?
(37:23):
Like in slow motion?
Speaker 4 (37:24):
That was pretty great?
Speaker 3 (37:25):
Like gross, the fact that the I get that the
you know, is it an MRI that they're gonna do
that's gonna show all the structural damage whatever, there's no
way that that X ray is honest and truthful and
too No, I don't believe it feels like a good
spot for the Lions. They need a good bounce back game.
Commander is a good easy team to beat up on
and they let up points.
Speaker 1 (37:45):
Stuck you what about you? It is your plant the
flag game this week?
Speaker 5 (37:48):
Yeah, I can't get there on the line. I mean,
like like the lines in order to lay in a half,
I'd have to make them like eleven points better than
the Commanders. And the Lions might not have they might
not have any offensive line. And like I just said,
they've been a bottom ten offense, bottom ten offense in
the month since over June weeks five and nine. In
October first it is not working. And like everyone, I
(38:09):
think the Lions are the most overrated team in the
league right now. Like you look, look at last week.
I don't know, they were minus dying at home against
the Vikings. I can say that because I bet the
Vikings and they lost outright the JJ McCarthy. They never
lose those games coming out of a bye at home
with Jared Goff who owned the Vikings. It's not the same.
And now they might be without school, they might be
(38:31):
without Decker, They're already without a guard. I don't think
the defense is any good. Like what result this year,
Like they beat the Ravens, like that beat up Ravens defense.
They had a really good game plan against Lamar. But
other than that, like their best result is they beat
the all the backups on the Bucks like that's I
think the lines are extremely orated. But like Washington's a mess,
(38:51):
Like there's a lot of injuries on defense. I don't
know McLain's gonna play. You're gonna Mariota lou who suspended too, Like,
so I just can't get that to that number.
Speaker 2 (39:00):
I don't know. They beat your Ravens by eight.
Speaker 5 (39:02):
Yeah, I mean they could cover, but I just can't
get to that number. I'll say I'm gonna play my
flag on the Packers minus two and a half at
home against the Eagles. I think we're getting under three
because of last week flukey game and weather, the Packers
didn't punt once. Jordan Love still second EPA per play
among all quarterbacks behind Darnold. They just got too conservative
(39:24):
last week. Their special teams have been an issue. I
think you see them get more aggressive here this week.
I am not a believer in this Eagles team. Maybe
they come out of out of the by and look
a lot better. But they beat the basically the practice
squad of the Giants. But before then they should have
lost that Minnesota I think our luck rankings had that
as a seven point loss. The Vikings just couldn't score
(39:46):
in the red zone. They got blown out against the Giants.
They let bo Nicks come back and beat them. You
know they they like they should have lost to the Rams,
they should have lost to the Chiefs. They only beat
the Cowboys at home. Like this has not been impressive.
Is a team that still leads the league in three
and outright. I think the Packer's gonna be able to
get pressure. I still love this Green Day offense. I
(40:08):
think this Philly defense is way down this year. I
still I still think the Packers the best team in
the NFC. I'm getting them under a field go at home.
You bet taking it Packers minus two and a half draftings.
Speaker 2 (40:22):
Right, I think that's crazy head to head bets.
Speaker 1 (40:25):
My play at the Flag game is the Philadelphia Eagles
plus the two and a half I gotta.
Speaker 5 (40:29):
Add to the Packers. Now, I'm gonna I want some cheese.
I want some cheese. Ship we're head to head.
Speaker 1 (40:37):
I can't believe we're doing that.
Speaker 5 (40:39):
Yeah, let's let's bet for some cheese. I'll send you
some really good cheese.
Speaker 2 (40:42):
Wheel of cheese.
Speaker 4 (40:44):
Yeah, okay, this one's for a wheel of cheese. I'm
good with that. But you know what when I win crazy?
Speaker 1 (40:50):
When I win, I'm gonna I'm gonna melt my cheese
on a Philadelphia cheese steak right here. I have this,
So my my power rating has the Packers minus one.
That's not even accounting for the Tucker Craft injury. The
Packers offense kind of runs through him, and I'm not
exactly sure what he's worth to the spread, but it's
(41:11):
got to be at least half a point. So then
that would bump it down to Packers at nearly a pick.
And I'm getting plus two and a half on Philadelphia
off of a bye. I can't trust Jordan Love week
to week. I never know what version of him is
going to show up. How he's out here making moves too.
So if we're talking about bumping down the bad teams
that are gonna sell, can we bump up a team
(41:33):
that we know is going to be aggressive as they
already have? The Packers the only team in the NFL
this season also that have lost two games in which
they were a touchdown favorite two times to be.
Speaker 2 (41:45):
Bad teams just have the Packers. Well, that's poort number.
Speaker 1 (41:48):
That is definitely part of it. Matt Lafleur and Jordan
Love cannot be trusted as big favorites, and that's not
the case here. But the overall point that I wanted
to make to punctuate that is that if we're going
to make a statement stucky like we are overrating the
Detroit Lions, we've got to say that about the Green
Bay Packers at this point.
Speaker 5 (42:09):
The Packers who blew out the lines.
Speaker 4 (42:13):
They are on.
Speaker 3 (42:14):
The season total body lost to the Browns and the Panthers,
they're overrated.
Speaker 5 (42:20):
I disagree. So we'll find out on Monday. You're watching
the market.
Speaker 1 (42:24):
This block the team, block it if it closed, if
it closes it three, I'll bet the Eagles again.
Speaker 5 (42:33):
Why would you bet the Eagles now plus two and
a half because I don't.
Speaker 4 (42:35):
Think that I don't think the three is coming back.
Speaker 5 (42:37):
But again, you don't think that, you don't know it's
limits get to go up.
Speaker 2 (42:41):
During the notifications of the.
Speaker 5 (42:43):
There's there's no reason to back plus two and a
half now because if this goes to three, it'spect the
biggest key number in all of the NFL. Like you're
you're giving up so much equity that ticks starts to
tick down to two.
Speaker 1 (42:58):
If this goes back to three, I will I might
buy you. I'll buy you the cheese before I even
lose the bet. This one's not touching three.
Speaker 5 (43:06):
But who cares if it does or doesn't, you might
as well. Wait it's my point, That's all I'm saying.
Speaker 4 (43:10):
I mean two two is still key.
Speaker 5 (43:14):
Also, it's nowhere close to three, Like it's not even
in the same stratosphere.
Speaker 4 (43:22):
Three.
Speaker 2 (43:22):
When my parents fight in front of me, king.
Speaker 5 (43:24):
King, three is king if anyone missing out there just
no three is king in the NFL. If you have
your look, if you want a dog that's at two
and a half, wait, see if there's ever a three
that pumps.
Speaker 1 (43:37):
But three is about fifteen percent of the time. Two
is roughly four and a half. So to that point,
at and lately it's it's got that that that has shrunk.
Speaker 4 (43:50):
We're gonna get ahead of the market here.
Speaker 1 (43:51):
All right, Let's go our play at the flag games
the Lions minus eight and a half for Kendra. We've
got a head to head bet the Packers minus two
and a half for Stucky, Eagles plus two and a
half for me. And now time for the main event.
No betting week can start without it. It's It's the primer.
Courtesy of Evan Abrams. Evan, Welcome to the show. Where
(44:15):
do you land on the dog fight? That is Eagles Packers?
Speaker 7 (44:22):
So I had the Packers to win the Super Bowl
in the preseason. I feel like I felt good with
that pick up to the Panthers game, and I probably
would have felt good after the Panthers game if it
wasn't for the Craft injury. I feel like that makes
them a lot less versusile. So I think in this
game specifically, I will do exactly what Stucky says and
(44:43):
wait on the sidelines because if three comes, I think
Philly's the side. I don't think I could see myself
betting Green Bay after that injury and having to adjust
the offense so much. But it's gonna be a great game.
I mean that, plus Tampa Bay in New England. This
is like the best duo of games we've had in
a long time. I'm in the same.
Speaker 1 (45:00):
Week, Yeah, and I'm excited that I'm this invested in
a Monday night football game. It feels like it's been
a while. Nice to get that standalone to end the week.
What are the trends that we need to be aware
of before we go firing away on the apps?
Speaker 7 (45:16):
Just a few fun things off the bat here. So
Arizona last night obviously takes care of Dallas. NFC West
eighteen and seven now against the spread versus teams outside
of the NFC West this year, that's the best mark
through nine weeks for any.
Speaker 5 (45:30):
Division since twenty twenty. So all four teams in the
NFC West.
Speaker 7 (45:34):
Above five hundred this year, Seattle and the Rams at
the top of the NFL and ATS at the moment,
So some fun stuff going on out West. There only
division as well where all four teams are above five hundred.
Speaker 6 (45:46):
ATS other than that, to me the lion stuff that
Kendrew was talking about, Like, you're gonna hear it everywhere,
but one uncovered twelve straight games after a loss since
November one.
Speaker 7 (45:59):
Of twenty twenty two. That was the last time we
saw them lose after a loss. You're gonna hear it
everywhere this week. That is the longest streak and I'm
going through right now. I can find in a long
time for any team after a loss. So everyone thinks
it's automatic. The line kind of shows it, but that
is a streak. You will hear a lot of Yeah,
just like that.
Speaker 5 (46:16):
Yeah, like last week more than last week, they were
eight to zer against the spread in their last eight
against the Vikings, they were like ten and one against
the spread after bye. This ain't the same lines team
telling you correct.
Speaker 7 (46:27):
Yeah, And that's what everyone is going to make the
assumption of also action number percentages right now early week
seventy eight percent of tickets on Detroit, ninety eight percent
of the money. Like, everybody is going to just make
the assumption on Detroit this week.
Speaker 5 (46:42):
So we will see there.
Speaker 7 (46:43):
The other one, if you're just gonna look at the board,
Carolina min is five and a half, pretty funny, it's
their biggest game favorite since twenty twenty one. They've lost
ten straight as a favorite as well, So we will
see how that goes for them against the lonely.
Speaker 5 (46:57):
Saints, and Saints might be traders sellers, as we said, correct,
they could be, they might go higher.
Speaker 4 (47:03):
Yeah.
Speaker 8 (47:03):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (47:05):
One of the other things that I am betting against
here is I do think there's gonna be some market
sentiment on Okay, the Packers lost as big underdogs, this
is a bounce back opportunity, I would I would think,
let me be very clear about transparent. I think the
Eagles are going to have a high percentage of the
bets this week. But I do think there's going to
(47:26):
be a line of thinking for Packers backers that because
they were such a big favorite last week and they lost,
that this is a buying opportunity on them. They are
the largest favorites to lose outright. Since the Titans beat
the Dolphins as fourteen and a half point underdogs. I
think that game was in prime time too, Week fourteen
of the twenty twenty three season. Any recollection, now this
(47:49):
is a very limited sample, but any recollection as to
what the Dolphins did the following week after they were
two touchdown favorites and lost the game outright.
Speaker 7 (48:00):
It's funny, I thought you actually asked me this question
kind of facetiously because they want thirty nothing against the
Jets the next week, which obviously says great things about
what the situation was. But I also have to mention
it was the Jets. But if you look in our database,
teams lose by twelve as at twelve and a half
plus point favorite nineteen twelve and two ats in the
(48:20):
next game. Super small sample size and a lot of
noise there. But I do probably think there is like
a motivational comeback to the meme. Plus the line probably
drops on the clothes for the team that we thought
was really good, So I think there's a few factors
buying in there.
Speaker 5 (48:36):
But it's it's tight. That's basically my reason. I think
the past and teams are going to lose flukey games.
What ad the outain them by one hundred and twenty
didn't punt one time in the game. Yeah, then miss
field rolls like those weather and I look back the
remember the Chiefs lost of the Raiders at home last year.
The Ravens lost to the Raiders at home and then
won like ten of eleven and everyone was like panicking,
(48:59):
the Ravens are all and two. They lost to Garner
Minshew and the Raiders in Baltimore, and you know, I
think they covered like six and row after that. I
think that's what's driving it. I think designed you b three.
I think it would have been three if the Packers
one and now we're getting to an alf So that's
basically the main reason to my bad. But we also
(49:21):
have we also have Lamar first half trend and Lamar
varus NFC. I'll be looking at Raven's first half this
week under a field goal.
Speaker 1 (49:30):
Anything post trade deadline trends wise that we should be
aware of. Is there anything you have anything on that,
Evan before we wrap?
Speaker 5 (49:37):
Yeah.
Speaker 7 (49:38):
So the only thing that I find interesting, and I
kind of dug into this a little bit, is the
closing lines into the trade deadline weeks. So I'll have
something about that in my article, but I wanted to
dig a little bit further because you have to pin
the trade deadline hasn't been the same every year, so
I'm looking into it a little bit, So check out
the primer for that. But I do think it tends
to be in an outline week in the sense that
(50:01):
teams get worse and teams get better. But mostly it's
the teams get worse angle because sometimes the players don't
play right away for the teams they go to. But
like a team like the Raiders could be extremely decimated
and the line could rise a few points, which actually
would probably give some value to Vegas in that spot.
Speaker 5 (50:19):
So yeah, that that's what I was This is very
hard to parse through because this is something I wanted
to look at, So I don't know how you'll end
up doing it because you don't going back to every
year and then saying like here's the teams that traded
someone key and here's the ones that got.
Speaker 7 (50:34):
Versus injuries, which would take so long. I was just
gonna look at line movement in trade deadline week.
Speaker 5 (50:39):
That's what I was gonna suggest. Look, I would filter
like the worst team so like win percentage really low
line moves against them by a certain amount, didn't move
too much, right, so like is there? Yeah, this would
be my thought to say. And then on the on
the flip side, some of the best teams who hadded
someone that first week is it is the market overreacting,
(51:02):
which it certainly could. I would tend to think over time,
even if it's just slightly, the market probably overreacts in
general in totality.
Speaker 8 (51:14):
For so, the funny thing is the line might overreact
for a player that may not even end up playing
that week anyway, Like just with the team making a
trade for a player, the line going up and maybe
that player, you know, Yeah, and then.
Speaker 5 (51:27):
On the flip side, the narrative of like all this
team's quit, they're selling, and then people just betting against them,
and then it goes a little too far. So interesting. Yeah,
make sure you check out Evan's private love something on
that for sure.
Speaker 4 (51:39):
Actionally work at and fade the narratives.
Speaker 1 (51:41):
The Favorites is a wrap for today special thanks to
our producers David Paine and Gifford Gould. We'll be back
at it on Thursday on the Action Network YouTube page
where we talk week ten best of bets and our
two Kings and a Queen parlay. We'll see if we
can go back to back this week. We'll see you
next time here on the Favorites presented by Draft Kings
or Out Go Pat Goat.
Speaker 2 (52:12):
Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or
someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is
available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler
Welcome to the Favorites, presented by DraftKings. The Crown is yours.
We are an Action Network podcast. I'm Brandon Kravitz. The
crew is back on this fine Tuesday morning. Kendra Middleton
and the Prime Minister Stucky. On today's episode, We've got
our plant the Flag game for week ten, a breakdown
of the top storylines, and of course the main event
(00:30):
evans Tuesday primer. You can't start a betting week without it.
Kendra on the Sunday Night episode, I reference the speed
in which this country turns the page from Halloween to Christmas.
It's quite admirable when you think about the expeditiousness that
we as a society act like. You can't find a
(00:51):
fucking pumpkin anywhere and Halloween's been over for a day.
Do you think it's admirable or obnoxious how quickly we
switch gears from one holiday to the next.
Speaker 2 (01:03):
It's obnoxious.
Speaker 3 (01:04):
I'm a Thanksgiving truther, as I'm sure most of the
people in this podcast are, because we're food in football people.
I hate Christmas. It's the worst holiday in my opinion.
I know that that's a hot take. Christmas is dumb.
Let us have let us Thanksgiving people have a second
Put your decorations up the day after Thanksgiving and you
can keep them up until fucking Valentine's Day if you want,
but leave us alone. Let me have my football, Let
(01:26):
me enjoy fall for five more minutes until I, as
someone who lives in Boston, wait for the impending doom
of darkness and cold.
Speaker 2 (01:33):
Let me push it off for half an hour.
Speaker 3 (01:35):
Go away, go away, shut up, shut up, shut up,
go away, go away.
Speaker 1 (01:39):
Christmas is really two separate holidays in the country, in
the world. There's the religious one and then there's the
commercial one.
Speaker 3 (01:47):
And.
Speaker 2 (01:49):
I hate them both.
Speaker 4 (01:51):
I'm not a very religious person, but the commercial one
I'm here for. I love it. I'm happy.
Speaker 2 (01:55):
I'm so bad at buying gifts.
Speaker 3 (01:57):
If I ever have to buy any of you a gift,
just gonna overnight you a live lobster.
Speaker 2 (02:01):
And I'm not joking.
Speaker 3 (02:02):
I send someone in my family a live lobster every
single year. Nobody knows who's gonna get it. Somebody gets lobstered.
It's what If I ever have to send you guys
a gift, just know what's going.
Speaker 2 (02:12):
To be that I'm the worst gift to give for.
Speaker 3 (02:14):
It's too much pressure, and I like, I love people,
but that is not my thing.
Speaker 2 (02:18):
I can't.
Speaker 1 (02:19):
No, no, send Stucky some crab cakes for me instead,
because I still send.
Speaker 5 (02:26):
I gotta send you my address.
Speaker 3 (02:28):
Well I want my I want my head to head again,
Stucky the other day.
Speaker 5 (02:31):
So yeah, we didn't bet anything.
Speaker 4 (02:35):
Wasted opportunity, guys, the Yeah.
Speaker 5 (02:39):
I really don't care about the holidays. I love Thanksgiving,
love Christmas, but like my he, I don't have time
to worry my holidays as soon.
Speaker 1 (02:46):
As you don't put anything up for any of these. No,
we have between your college basketball and college football bets.
Speaker 5 (02:53):
We have people that put up stuff. But like, like
you know, I told you that there's people that come
over and do my in law's house like it's like
a people drive to see it. They were out there
the other day said putting up the Christmas lights and
all the like, telling you it takes like three days
they come over and put stuff up in our house.
But like it's otherwise to her, My mother in law
(03:18):
would be like ridiculously upset if we didn't decorate. So
they she basically gets people to decorate for us. But no,
once Thanksgiving changes, I mean once after Halloween. It's my holidays.
College basketball, Like, I'm trying to keep my head on
straight every day, transitioning from one hour's NFL, the next
(03:39):
hour's college football, the next hour's college basketball. Repeat. They
repeat that six seven times a day, every day. Try
to find an hour nap and keep going.
Speaker 3 (03:50):
Well, it's a Christmas scarf, that's it. Those are my decorations.
Speaker 1 (03:53):
I did have in my secret notes over here that
I wanted a mental health check on Stucky because my god,
this time of year for you, college football, college basketball
just started. I was watching Arizona in Florida last night.
But you're putting out content for all of this on
top of what we do in the NFL.
Speaker 4 (04:12):
So this is just a you good?
Speaker 5 (04:15):
Are you doing this for forever? It's labor of love.
But yeah, the hardest part is college basketball is so
much harder now. Markets obviously get a little morefficient over time,
but just the same thing happens in college football. Like
the prep for these sports used to be so much easier,
but now with the roster turnovers and the transfer portal.
Speaker 2 (04:35):
The NIL ruined everything.
Speaker 5 (04:37):
More teams keeping track and like adjusting these teams and
then keeping track of injuries on top of that, Like
just keeping track of the NFL injuries is hard enough.
Now doing that for college basketball and college football. Yeah,
there's not a second that goes by in the day
where that's not all I'm thinking of in November and December.
(04:57):
Literally not a second. So yeah, but I love it.
It's just like the ultimate grind, and I just fully
immersed myself in it. So anyway, last night we hit
our we hit our parlay again, back to back days,
Cardinals get started nuts McBride. I'm glad we can ensure McBride.
Speaker 4 (05:19):
I love it.
Speaker 1 (05:19):
And by the way, the first comment we get on
Twitter is some clown going, I never tell you guys. Okay,
well that has not been a profitable opinion. Over the
last two days, we are six and oher on our
biggest bets that we've given out on this podcast.
Speaker 4 (05:37):
So I had a.
Speaker 3 (05:38):
Perfect weekend this weekend. Everybody can suck mead Ry.
Speaker 5 (05:43):
No time for gloating. It's stay humble, keep grinding. But
McBride twenty one games with Kyler Murray two touchdowns, last
three games without them four touchdowns. He obviously benefits from Brissette.
The entire offense looks much better. Uh, I don't think
we're gonna hot take. I don't think we see Calamary
(06:04):
again this year unless Prissette gets hurt. And I was
screaming from the mountaintops. The Cardinals are not bad. The
Cardinals are a better team than the Cowboys.
Speaker 2 (06:13):
Well, I was gonna say.
Speaker 3 (06:14):
Are the Cardinals better than the public thought?
Speaker 2 (06:17):
Or are the Cowboys more asked than everybody thought? That
was my big question.
Speaker 5 (06:22):
Both.
Speaker 4 (06:22):
Yeah, I would go both on that.
Speaker 5 (06:24):
Yeah. I mean, like everyone is like, oh, the Cowboys
are so scary at home, Like they didn't they they
they should have lost to Russell Wilson at home. You know,
they beat the Shell Commanders team. That's it. They blew
them out. That's like this. This defense is among the
worst in the league. And the Cardinals defense, now that
(06:44):
it's healthy, you got they were playing. It's one of
the most the most well schemed defenses in the league
with their three three high safety looks. Now you add
and they had a bunch of injuries, but now that
they have will Johnson looks incredible as a corner you know,
Meltman William back at cornerback. Walter Nolan made his NFL
debut the first round draft pick, well, I thought was
(07:06):
kind of a steal. I thought he should have won
the top ten. He looked great. You add him to
that front, and then on top of that, with Persett
in the mix, the entire offense looks so much better.
There's actually a passing element, and Harrison looks so much better.
McBride is more involved. So this is a team that
(07:26):
I think is still undervalued. I mean that they lost
five games in a row by four points or less,
and they easily could have been five and two instead
of two and five. And yeah, it's a team that
I'll be looking to continue to back, especially if it's
per Set that remains in there, which I think he will.
Speaker 1 (07:44):
And we have that opportunity stucky, because the Cardinals are
plus six and a half against the Seattle Seahawks over
on DraftKings as it stands right now, Yeah, are we
gonna want are we going to take a bite of
that apple?
Speaker 3 (07:58):
Or you need to talk about we need to talk
about something before we talk about that, because I think
we need to start predicting who are going to be
buyers and sellers today because and people might be listening
to that after But I think that this Cardinals team
could probably be a seller.
Speaker 2 (08:14):
Think about how many teams right now.
Speaker 3 (08:16):
Are desperate for a tight end, Like tight ends have
become just such a luxury in this league, which I
never thought that I would say when I was a kid,
And now here we are. There are some of the
you know, most prominent pass catchers and a lot of
these offenses they do everything. They're underpaid, they're underappreciated. I
think the Cardinals might be sellers. We need to think
about that while we're previewing some of these games today,
(08:37):
because I see that we're going to talk about Thursday
Night football too. I think the Raiders are going to
be sellers. So before we get here, like, do you
guys think that the Cardinals are gonna be sellers, especially
with this Jacoby Brissett Kyler Murray situation.
Speaker 2 (08:49):
I'm in the camp of yes, No.
Speaker 5 (08:53):
I think I do not think so. I think that
came out yesterday and said they're not going.
Speaker 4 (08:58):
To they're only two games back on a wild card spot.
Speaker 5 (09:02):
Yeah, they're there, especially they won yesterday. The only person
they're gonna I did my trade is Kyler Murray, and
I think they're better with Berssette I do too.
Speaker 2 (09:14):
Who's the third string?
Speaker 5 (09:17):
Oh, it's probably like, uh, who's the he's dreadful.
Speaker 2 (09:21):
I'm looking it up.
Speaker 3 (09:22):
Uh, it is Cadence Lovas. So they can't trade.
Speaker 5 (09:27):
They're done anyway. It depends on what they get.
Speaker 1 (09:32):
You can always imagine saying that at the start of
the season, if Brissett goes down, the Cardinals are done.
Speaker 4 (09:37):
I would have loved to crystal balls.
Speaker 2 (09:40):
Cardinals are already done.
Speaker 5 (09:42):
I don't think so. I think they're gonna try to
make a run. I mean it's a team that could
play with anyone. They went to Indianapolis and was were
right there to win. They almost beat Green Bay, they
should have beat the forty nine ers. They just went
into Dallas and destroyed them from I mean destroy them
start to finish. I think they can make a run
at the wild Card. So I don't think that they're
(10:02):
going to sell other than Kyler Murray. And I think
the other thing is with this week's matchup against Seattle,
which is a huge game for them, and they have
they have some winnable game, like you want to see,
can they get the nine wins like they have the
Jags at home, the Niners at home, after this, uh, Texans, Falcons,
Bengals still on their schedule, so there's some winnable games
(10:27):
now if you look back historically, the Seahawks, while I'm
one hundred percent, I was so mad last right after
that game ended last night that people came in and
bought the Cardinals plus seven and I had a notification
up and I got it and I couldn't get to
the Cardinals in time. I'm hopefully we see a seven
again this week and then I'll be interested. The Seahawks
(10:48):
have so because I think still think Arizona's defense is
extremely underrated. Uh and I mean going into Dallas and
shutting down that offense. I mean, dak that off was
had zero points to the fourth quarter. That's impressive. And
now that their corners back, they have no one like
I mentioned, and then I think the offense is still
undervalued because of the percent and just the perception of
this team as well from who they actually are. But
(11:10):
they've really struggled with Seattle in the past, and most
of that has been because I mean, because you look
back at that game in Arizona earlier this year, they
were they did as good of a job on anyone
against Seattle's offense who's been I mean, Sam Darnold has
been the best quarterback in the league statistically. The game
was twenty to twenty at the end, and then they
botched the kickoff Seahawks get a field goal. The biggest
(11:32):
problem that Arizona has had against the Seahawks is Kyler.
Murray has been horrendous the last two years. In particular,
McDonald has his number. They get so much pressure on
him and he can't do it. Per set has been
so much better under pressure. Their plaction rates have gone up.
(11:53):
So yeah, I think that this is probably the highest
we're going to be on Seattle. Like, I think that
they could be a top five team like I have them,
That's where I have them now. But I think this
is a perfect like Bylos Still Bilo on the Cardinals
and so on.
Speaker 2 (12:07):
I think they're the best team in the NFC. I
really do.
Speaker 4 (12:10):
You can make that case right now the way they're
playing on both sides.
Speaker 1 (12:13):
By the way Kyler two and nine straight up three
and eight ats in his career against the Seattle Seahawks.
Speaker 4 (12:20):
So yeah.
Speaker 5 (12:20):
Morely, his numbers are awful, like, uh, horrendous.
Speaker 1 (12:25):
Well, I want to stay on this trade deadline topic
that's at four o'clock today Tuesday. If you're listening to this,
it's part of our top three storylines heading into Week ten,
one of which I want to talk about Jayden Daniels
and his injury and some of these teams at the
top of anybody's power rankings taking ls.
Speaker 4 (12:43):
But let's play a quick.
Speaker 1 (12:45):
Game of nominate one team that you desperately want to
see make a move today in either direction, either sellers buyers. Kendra,
is there a team for you that you want to
see make a move today in either direction?
Speaker 3 (13:02):
Obviously I want the Jaguars to go for Quinn Williams
and Jacoby Meyers, but outside of them, I.
Speaker 2 (13:08):
Think I'd like to see the Colts be buyers. Even
though we're in the same division.
Speaker 3 (13:12):
I've come to grips with the fact that this is
just not a Jags season. And I know that I'm
supposed to hate everybody in the division and she're it
against them whatever, But they're just such a fun team.
They're so easy to root for. A lot of good
like storyline lines on the team. I'm just kind of like,
for one season, f it whatever, let the Colts be good.
If I have to go outside of the division. You
(13:33):
guys know, I'm gonna say the P words. I'm gonna
go with the Panthers and the Patriots. I want to party.
I want the Patriots to be good as much as
I hate them and they ruined my life in twenty seventeen.
I'm making more money when the Patriots are good. I'm
partying more when the Patriots are good. The city's a
lot more fun.
Speaker 2 (13:49):
Whatever.
Speaker 3 (13:49):
Go Patriots, Go, Panthers, Jags, Go get Quinn Williams and
Jacoby Myers and I'll have a good day. I'll go
buy a lottery ticket. I'm going to a nice dinner tonight.
I'll wear some high heels. I'll make it sexy for you.
Speaker 4 (14:00):
Do it.
Speaker 2 (14:00):
For the love of God, please go get Quinn Williams.
Speaker 1 (14:03):
All reasons to be in the camp of Kendri Middleton today.
Speaker 4 (14:07):
Stucky, what about you?
Speaker 5 (14:09):
I mean my Ravens Like so, they traded Jai Year,
Free Upsimore cap Room the one. Now they're fully healthy
on offense, arguably the best offense in the league now,
and especially as Lamar gets healthier and healthier. The defense
still top three. Secondary. You got Roquebon back healthy, the
biggest glaring weakness on the team by a million miles
(14:32):
is the defensive line because of the injuries and because
of the loss of Matabuke. So I want to see
edc to cost to go out and get I mean
the dream would be like the dream even I mean
that a realistic dream. I don't know if they would
sell him, but Dexter Lawrence if they made a big
(14:53):
splash trade for Dexter Lawrence.
Speaker 3 (14:56):
You're not worried about the production that he's had this
year though, because a lot of people on like you know,
the big mainstream stuff have been bitching at him.
Speaker 2 (15:03):
But I love sexy DEXI.
Speaker 5 (15:04):
Oh, he's still one of the best in the league.
And then you get him into a like a winning
culture and a win a winning team, I think you'll
you'll get a.
Speaker 2 (15:14):
I don't think Giants will let him go.
Speaker 5 (15:16):
Though, depends on the price. Every everyone has a everyone
has a price for anything.
Speaker 4 (15:21):
So like solid debass reference right there.
Speaker 5 (15:24):
Yeah, the so like depends like the Giants need to
build for the future so that they think that they
have Dark Dart, they think they have their franchise quarterback,
so you know, getting rid of some big contracts, getting
some draft picks and then building up that youth could
be the direction that they take. But the Giants are
(15:47):
in a weird place. Like what it now that they
think they found their quarterback with Dart does that mean
Dable stays and sticks around?
Speaker 2 (15:55):
So I don't know what I WoT you give them.
Speaker 5 (15:58):
I have no idea. That's not my specialty. But like
you could, I have no I have no clue, Like
the right comp of draft picks would be. It wouldn't
be players, it would just be draft picks.
Speaker 4 (16:06):
And then all that stuff is so contract dependent too.
Speaker 2 (16:10):
I just I don't know.
Speaker 3 (16:11):
I mean, we don't even have to talk about who
or what. But it's more so just like I don't
think you're gonna deal a trade like that the team
dealing with so many injuries without giving them bodies.
Speaker 5 (16:19):
Maybe, But the Giants' issues aren't on the defensive line,
like they have.
Speaker 3 (16:22):
Depth there no I know, but they need but it.
Speaker 5 (16:25):
Doesn't have to They could throw someone in that's someone.
Speaker 3 (16:28):
That's yeah, I was gonna say, it doesn't have to
be like on the defensive line.
Speaker 2 (16:31):
They just need to carry someone.
Speaker 5 (16:32):
In the secondary. That's there's there's options, but that's regardless
I just want to see the Ravens go get defensive
line help because if they do, I think in five weeks,
because I think they're probably gonna go four and one
or five and oh over the next five games. People
are most people are gonna have them power rated number
(16:56):
one in the league again. But they have to address
to this line because there's still a little vulnerable against
the run because of it, and they also can't generate
pressure right now because of it. So it's hurting them
on multiple fronts. And it's really like it's ultimately what
would hold them back if they do end up making
(17:18):
the playoffs, because I mean, right now, their defensive line
with Washington Ladabuque and you know, I mean others on
IR they trade it all away. It's Travis Jones, John Jenkins,
and Brent Herban as your starters, like Peebles as your backup.
Like that's not going to get it done up front.
So that is what I'm watching by far. The Ravens
(17:41):
need to get help there.
Speaker 1 (17:42):
I have a fun one that I think is going
to make most people that are listening throw up in
their mouths because I think a lot of people are
overseeing the Kansas City Chiefs win, but that team for
years has needed a solid running back stop relying on
old man in Kareem Hunt or below average Isaiah Pacheco.
(18:04):
There are two teams in the AFC East that should
be sellers right now, the Jets and the Dolphins, and
both of them have sub elite running backs Devon h
Chan Breeze Hall. I would love to see Kansas City
make a move on a.
Speaker 2 (18:20):
Guy was gonna move all year. I've been saying this, Yeah.
Speaker 4 (18:25):
Got to do it.
Speaker 1 (18:26):
They've just lying on these shitty running backs for years.
Now give my homes some.
Speaker 5 (18:30):
He I'm curious to see what. Yeah, Like, I'm curious
to the things I'm most curious about. Is Hendrickson gonna move?
I mean, if you're the Bengals.
Speaker 2 (18:46):
Like, well, they already made a move today.
Speaker 5 (18:49):
I know they traded Logan Wilson, but he's already benched.
But like only Jerry Jones could find the diamond and
there off the bench linebacker on one of the worst
defenses in the issue of the league. So yeah, dude,
does Hendrickson get moved because he could provide a major
boost for some team that really needs an edge rush
and like just giving up yeah, I mean, like the
(19:12):
deep what is there, Like even with Hendrickson, they're still
like the worst defense in the league. Like it just
they need picks, and although they.
Speaker 3 (19:17):
Can't draft, that's well, my whole thing is that, like
we saw what Joe Burrow did last year and kind
of in a similar situation.
Speaker 2 (19:23):
He came out and was just an.
Speaker 3 (19:25):
Absolute gun slinger almost you know, had them a like
comeback story for the Ages at the end of last year,
and I think that they're probably hoping for that again.
Speaker 5 (19:34):
I mean, but it's how much different gonna look like
they're They had Hendrickson last year played at all pro level
this year, I mean, Flacco just threw for five hundred
yards and they lost to the Bears at home, like
and they continue.
Speaker 4 (19:47):
I'm with you, just.
Speaker 5 (19:48):
They can't win anything with this defense. But then again,
like you have Burrow under contract and Chase and Higgins,
like the Bengals are just they're a horrendously run organization
and the main reason, and their owner is terrible, the
reason is they cannot draft. Go back and look, i
mean Barrow fell into their laps. They've had a couple
offensive players just fall into their laps. But go look
at their offensive line draft picks, their defensive draft picks.
(20:12):
They've all been complete disasters. That's top down organization, down
at the scouting and it's it's it's all a dumpster fire.
The teams that I think are going to sell that,
And you want to be careful about betting these teams
on this week, in particular early in the week. By
the time you're listening to this, you'll have most of
the news. But just keep this in mind in the future.
But the Saints are probably up there. You know, you
(20:32):
could see guys like a Lave Shaheed, maybe some defenders
get moved. I would imagine the Dolphins are in like
we already saw Phillips move, GM gone interim like fire
sale mode.
Speaker 2 (20:50):
Just think Wattle will go what's that you think will
go for.
Speaker 5 (20:55):
The right price? Sure, I think that they're they they
they trade anyone on the roster right now.
Speaker 4 (21:01):
Including to us. I think that you're not gonna.
Speaker 5 (21:04):
Get anyone for two. Someone's gonna take that contract.
Speaker 4 (21:07):
No, hear me out. Hear me out.
Speaker 1 (21:08):
Obviously you're not going to trade to it and get
something for him. But if you pair him with I
think they'd have to trade him with something like a
second round pick, just to have a team that feels
like they can revive his career, take on the contract.
I do think that's something that they will maybe not now,
I don't know they ever explore.
Speaker 5 (21:27):
Yeah, I I just don't know how if you're any
serious team. So, I mean there are some unseerious teams.
I mean, what what is too has a four He
has a four year, two hundred and fifteen million dollar contract,
and so.
Speaker 4 (21:41):
You're gonna have to pay somebody to take it.
Speaker 5 (21:43):
But the other thing is like taking that on with
his when you his career could end it any in
any game, like with his concussion issues too, Like you
got to keep that in mind. So, but yeah, I
think the Dolphins are in complete fire sale mode. I'm
curious to see what the Jets do because they're definitely
a Kennedy so and in the Browns obviously Browns are
(22:07):
in in trade mode.
Speaker 3 (22:10):
So I hope Miles I hope Miles Garrett goes. That'd
be so good for him.
Speaker 5 (22:14):
I don't think he's they'd they'd ever trade him. He's
like the face of the city.
Speaker 2 (22:20):
Craviat if it makes you feel any better. The Jags
did get Rid of that.
Speaker 3 (22:23):
Nick Foles contract, so maybe they can get rid of
to us.
Speaker 1 (22:26):
Hey, any anything is possible, Like Stuck, he said, it's
it's all about the price.
Speaker 4 (22:32):
If you pay tidy to do it, they might just
take it.
Speaker 5 (22:36):
Trade Jeffrey Simmons is a like he is. If the
Raid's got Jeffrey Simmons, Oh man, I would you'd see
me streaking down my street. You'd see me actually leave
my house in November.
Speaker 3 (22:50):
This is from from the production Oh my god, Jacksonville
Jaguars trading for Jacoby Myers.
Speaker 4 (22:54):
Is that? Is that an opinion or is that news?
I'm trying to know it's news.
Speaker 2 (22:57):
Adam Schefter two minutes ago.
Speaker 5 (22:58):
Oh yeah, we're gonna start to get news in the
next couple of hours. I think what is the deadline
to Eastern n Myers? That's a good get. Yeah, I
didn't mentioned the Raiders, four and six, the Bronco, the
Lucky Broncos. How many more breaks they're gonna get? They
get the Raiders after OT on a short weekend while
they're selling their team off. There's you know what's an
(23:23):
interesting one is do the Chargers try to like they're
in this and now with Joe Ald out for the year,
like they cannot win the Super Bowl with the state
of their offensive line. So do they just say, like,
we'll get our tackles back next year and really go
(23:43):
after plug some of the holes we have, or do
they say, you know, we're in this a FC race,
let's go get tackle help.
Speaker 4 (23:52):
But the.
Speaker 5 (23:54):
Coming back, so it makes it tricky, like they're probably
coming back.
Speaker 4 (23:59):
They're coming back this year. All was placed on the
IR No, I think they're out for the year.
Speaker 1 (24:04):
Okay, then they should probably make a move. They're as
good as.
Speaker 5 (24:10):
Because tackles are expensive and you already have you know,
two potential All pro so you can't like go get
a premium tackle, but maybe you can add a vet.
But yeah, Slater torrest, Pateller tendency, he's out for the year.
And I believe Joe All was just ruled out of
the season. Let me say, uh, yeah, he's he's gonna
(24:32):
have a season ending surgery high ankle injury, which is
so unfortunate, Like you see the difference between him and
there and him out of there by the way. Something
i'lso keep in mind, just while it's on my mind.
If you're looking at NFL lines. This week. One of
the trickiest games on the entire board is Lions commanders.
You have Luvu suspended, now you have all the Washington
defensive injuries. I don't know mclaurin's status. You're gonna Marriot
(24:52):
to starting, but the Lions could they had they just
placed their Mahogany on ir, they might be without Sewell
and Decker. So I don't know who wins that matchup
of the Washington The biggest pillow fight of the weekend,
the Washington backup defensive lines versus the Lions backup offensive line,
because if they're without their tackles and one of their guards, like,
(25:15):
it's ugly. And the Lions offense the way, people aren't
talking about this enough. Lions offense since October first, twenty
fourth in success rate, eighteenth in EPA per play, twenty
ninth in rush success rate. You know it's number one
over that span, Chicago Bears. So the only team's rushing
(25:37):
it worse right now, and it's barely than the Lions
since October first, And by the way, they played the
Bengals over that stretch, So that the Bears are the Texans,
the Browns and the Saints I believe maybe the Raiders
up there, but it's been bad. The offense is not
what is that. It's the loss of Ben Johnson and
(26:01):
the offensive line. You saw that against Minnesota. Talked about
this last week, but the offensive line, and you know
Decker hasn't been healthy. The interior is worse, and now
you have the backup to Maogany is horrendous. But if
you were at Soul, you know, one of the two
best tackles. I don't know how that happens with that
Washington game, is uh, that's a crazy one.
Speaker 4 (26:22):
So well, we happened.
Speaker 1 (26:23):
We happen to have a pick on that later on
in the episode, and we'll get to that momentarily. Someone
in on the chat here internally said Jacoby Meers, not
Jerry Rice, So just keep that in mind. I mean,
they need Are you still processing this? This is a
big move for your team.
Speaker 2 (26:43):
I'm honestly not sweating it at all.
Speaker 3 (26:45):
I get that he's on an expiring contract and giving
up a fourth for him sounds insane, But they have
two fourth round picks. It's going to be the higher
of the fourth round pick. They have so many sixth
round picks it's actually disgusting, Like, what the hell are
we going to do with all of them? Anyway, it
sounds to me like this is pro probably a move
because they're either going to trade BTJ or Hunters out
for the season.
Speaker 2 (27:04):
In Gladstone's we trust, here we go.
Speaker 3 (27:07):
I'm glad they're doing something and they're not just sitting
here and being passive.
Speaker 2 (27:10):
I'll take it. I don't care f them picks. Let's
do all we ride.
Speaker 4 (27:14):
We were about to get to some picks ourselves.
Speaker 1 (27:17):
The sports betting Variety, We're gonna take a look at
Thursday Night football first between the Raiders and the Broncos.
But first a word from our very own Kendres. We
chat about our great friends at DraftKings.
Speaker 3 (27:27):
The Favorites podcast has teamed up with DraftKings sportsbook, where
new customers can bet five dollars and get three hundred
back in bonus bets if your bet wins and three
months of NBA.
Speaker 2 (27:38):
League Pass to get started.
Speaker 3 (27:39):
Use promo code of Favorites when signing up with DraftKings. Again,
use Code Favorites when signing up and bet five bucks
to get three hundred back and bonus bets if your
bet wins plus three months of VA League pass.
Speaker 2 (27:50):
The crown is yours.
Speaker 4 (27:51):
Thursday Night Football Raiders at Broncos.
Speaker 5 (27:55):
Thursday Night Football.
Speaker 4 (27:56):
Broncos favored by nine and a half.
Speaker 2 (27:59):
At Denver Broncos.
Speaker 4 (28:02):
Then it went to eight and a half, then they
were back up to nine and a half. This morning.
Now it was back to eight and a half.
Speaker 1 (28:07):
And we continue to play ping pong with this spread
over under sitting at forty two and a half.
Speaker 4 (28:14):
Settled at forty two and a half.
Speaker 1 (28:16):
Denver is going to their throwbacks on Thursday, so factor
that into the spread as you.
Speaker 4 (28:21):
Wish, because those are some pretty sweet threads.
Speaker 2 (28:23):
Matter a half.
Speaker 1 (28:25):
I'm yeah, I look good, feel good, play good. I
love these teams that have these killer throwbacks. They always
seem to play up as silly as it sounds, but
the numbers actually back it up. They are three and
zero in this uniform combination since twenty twenty four, so
there's something to that. Broncos eight straight outright wins at home,
the Raiders off of an overtime loss to the Jaguars,
(28:47):
and on top of that, Las Vegas struggles to move
the ball twenty sixth in yards per play. Well, Denver's
defense is first in the league in yards per play allowed,
So should be a terrible matchup for the Raiders. With
all that give me Las Vegas in a divisional game
in prime time, I think we get a good, solid
(29:08):
effort here. I could go into more specifics, but I'll
let you guys dig into this one. I mean, it's
a market read as much as anything else. Every time
this number gets up to nine and a half, it
gets bought back down. So if you can get the
nine or nine and a half on the Raiders, I
feel like by the time we get to kick off,
there's gonna be some good CLV on that number.
Speaker 4 (29:29):
Stucky, how do you see it?
Speaker 5 (29:31):
I wouldn't bet this right now. I mean because you
got to see that the Raiders are selling right now,
so who knows who else they might move. Plus you're
kind of in a dead zone, you know, like getting
getting the getting above a nine. Who cares now that
I said it will nine? But and so the other
(29:52):
thing that I'm really worried about is the Raiders were
on the field. They're defensive on the field for forty
three minutes only the Saints were on the field more.
They had a bottom fifteen time of possession game in
the history of the NFL, the Raiders were just right
there because they went overtime, they played every possible minute.
Teams on a short week after overtime playing on Thursday
or Friday are six and twenty five against the spread,
(30:13):
six and twenty five all time, and they're failing to
cover by about six points per game. I believe it,
three and fourteen against the spread on the road, ortal spot.
Now you're going to altitude as well. Having said that,
if I get a ten here, like, I don't know
how much that's worth, Like I make it worth like
a point and a half, which is substantial. Complete guess
on my part, I don't really know what it's worth,
(30:34):
but historically you can look back and it's definitely worth something.
And your defense is probably going to be a little gas.
But I mean, this Broncos offense is I'm not laying
it with Denver. I just would like to get a
ten here. I also would like to see who the
Raiders if they move anybody else. The Denver defense also
isn't the same without certain we saw that early against
(30:54):
Houston before Stroud got hurt. So yeah, if I can
get a ten, I'd be in interested if not that ten.
Speaker 1 (31:01):
Isn't it doesn't look like the ten is coming because
every time this touches. I've been following this for the
last every time he touches.
Speaker 5 (31:08):
You can still a bigger but you could still a
bigger money come in later in the week and and
uh and the.
Speaker 4 (31:14):
Crazy moves then that would be problematic.
Speaker 5 (31:16):
Raiders could also move other guys. But this the spot
is really really bad for the Raiders. And like I
said before, bow Knicks does look good when he plays
you know, bottom tier defenses, and they did look.
Speaker 2 (31:30):
Like three quarters last week.
Speaker 5 (31:32):
Yeah, but he's playing a good defense. If you look
at bo Nick's numbers against any competent defense, especially elite defense,
he's among the worst quarterbacks in the league. Like I'm
like bottom bottom tier whenever he faces a really good defense,
but against the worst defenses. I think if you look
at all of his e p A this year, like
all all of his positives, it all came against the Bengals,
(31:55):
the Cowboys, uh, and the Raiders are they're not as bad,
but they're not too far behind. So yeah, I need
a ten here, and I want to see I need
more info in the Raiders.
Speaker 6 (32:07):
So I.
Speaker 2 (32:09):
Think the Raiders.
Speaker 3 (32:10):
I think the Raiders are definitely gonna make some serious moves.
Speaker 2 (32:13):
They've got to be sellers. Gina sucks. They're gonna need
a quarterback.
Speaker 3 (32:17):
I don't think that they're gonna hank far enough to
kind of beat out some of these other teams for
earlier picks. I could see Max Crosby being on the move.
My whole thing with this it feels like I said,
Bonix looked like a freakin idiot for three quarters last week,
and then in the fourth quarter it was like Bonus hour.
Speaker 2 (32:34):
My thing is the Broncos in this spot.
Speaker 3 (32:37):
Yes they're at home, but they feel like they're about
due for a loss, and a bad one.
Speaker 2 (32:42):
It's a divisional game.
Speaker 3 (32:43):
Divisional games are different anytime there's over at touched on
any divisional game in any other spot outside of the
trade deadline.
Speaker 2 (32:49):
If this were Thursday and this number.
Speaker 3 (32:50):
Was here, I'd probably be like, yeah, sure if this
team looks the same outside of Jacoby, yeah, Raiders. But
the thing is is that we don't know what it's
going to look like. I don't want to bet on
a team that I don't know what's gonna look like
two days from now, let alone a couple hours from now.
But the Raiders look like they're due for a win.
Broncos look like they're due for a loss. I hate
that it's a divisional game, and I don't know what
the Raiders are going to look like in a couple
of days.
Speaker 2 (33:10):
So for me right now, it's a pass.
Speaker 3 (33:12):
If this were Thursday and everything was as is right now,
I would probably get behind the Raiders. I just until
I have more information camp because it looks like the
Broncos are due for a loss.
Speaker 5 (33:22):
Yeah, but fair enough. I will say, like you're watching
the market and like once it goes to nine and
a half, it's come back to nine eight and a
half dripping up. Some of that is like you know
some big, some bigger money will take that buy a
cheap or a little expense of ten, so they don't
want it to get there. But then also when you
come down to eight and a half, you're gonna have
people teasing the Broncos, so it's probably gonna float.
Speaker 1 (33:46):
This did open at ten to that point, and we
have not seen that ten pop back.
Speaker 5 (33:51):
But you're at nine and a half now nine and
a half or nine. There's no harm in waiting because
this isn't going to go to seven. It's not going
to go to eight. Most likely it's not gonna go
to seven and a half, So I shouldn't say it's
not I don't think it is. So like if you
(34:12):
lock in nine, nine and a half and then it
goes to ten, you missed out on a secondary key
number if it never gets there, and say you have
to bet nine instead of nine and a half, Like
the percentage of games that land on nine in the
NFL heaven Uh.
Speaker 4 (34:33):
It's not so much about landing on nine, it's the eight.
Speaker 1 (34:37):
At this point, especially with the prominence of the two
point conversion, is becoming more key. I don't want I
want to be on the raiders and if this land,
if the number settles on eight, I'm gonna be I
would have been pissed that I didn't get the nine
or the nine and a half.
Speaker 4 (34:51):
That's where I'm at on this.
Speaker 5 (34:52):
I think it's worth it more to wait in this situation.
But I'm mainly giving higher commentary right to uh, more
general commentary to anyone listening. That's kind of new beginning,
like when you're around those key numbers, Like I'll pull
up a couple of games this week that I'm watching, like,
(35:13):
for example, Seattle Arizona, Like I want to bet Arizona
seven is obviously a key. I'm gonna sit and wait
for as long as I possibly can. You can go
to the action app and you can put a notification
on your good notification whenever it moves.
Speaker 4 (35:27):
Uh.
Speaker 5 (35:28):
And that way you don't have to sit in front
of an odd screen and watch and what else here.
Speaker 2 (35:36):
Great shout for the action app.
Speaker 4 (35:39):
Likescause that's why.
Speaker 5 (35:43):
Like eight and a half. Sometimes you'll see some books,
we'll move that up to prevent teasers, like I'm sure
a lot of people want to tease the Broncos down,
and then when it gets to there's probably some sharper money,
some numbers guys that want to bet that would love
to have the Raiders that have a reasonable ten. So
as a result, you're going to see some back and
(36:05):
forth here and then we'll see what the Raiders do.
But yeah, you can get a cheap eight and a
half on the Raiders at DraftKings right now. So I'm
not saying you're wrong, I'm just explaining the thinking.
Speaker 1 (36:18):
And we got a nice little nugget here in the
in the back end of the chat last five years,
twenty five games have fallen on nine. Fifty four have
fallen on eight, sixty two I have fallen on ten.
Speaker 5 (36:31):
Yeah, nine, you're rarely so I think we're going.
Speaker 1 (36:33):
To play this game too with Monday Night Football. We'll
get to that in a second.
Speaker 4 (36:37):
Time.
Speaker 1 (36:37):
To plant our flag for Week ten, presented by DraftKings,
the crown is yours.
Speaker 5 (36:46):
It Shut up, I'm trying to plant my flag here.
Speaker 1 (36:49):
Okay, you're really planning your flag in that deck, Tendra,
who will you be planting your flag on for Week ten?
As we look to stay hot this week on the favorites,
I got.
Speaker 3 (36:59):
A rock with the line probably my favorite game of
the week.
Speaker 2 (37:02):
I already bet it.
Speaker 3 (37:02):
Bet it last night. If you follow us on action,
you definitely got that notification. The Commanders are a bad team.
They've lost by a lot of points for a lot
of weeks now. They lost to the Seahawks thirty eight
fourteen obviously, Chiefs twenty eight to seven, the Cowboys forty
four to twenty two. Staydon Daniels is probably gonna miss
the rest of the season. I don't care what the
X rays said. There's no way in hell he comes
back from that. Did you guys watch what happened his arm?
(37:23):
Like in slow motion?
Speaker 4 (37:24):
That was pretty great?
Speaker 3 (37:25):
Like gross, the fact that the I get that the
you know, is it an MRI that they're gonna do
that's gonna show all the structural damage whatever, there's no
way that that X ray is honest and truthful and
too No, I don't believe it feels like a good
spot for the Lions. They need a good bounce back game.
Commander is a good easy team to beat up on
and they let up points.
Speaker 1 (37:45):
Stuck you what about you? It is your plant the
flag game this week?
Speaker 5 (37:48):
Yeah, I can't get there on the line. I mean,
like like the lines in order to lay in a half,
I'd have to make them like eleven points better than
the Commanders. And the Lions might not have they might
not have any offensive line. And like I just said,
they've been a bottom ten offense, bottom ten offense in
the month since over June weeks five and nine. In
October first it is not working. And like everyone, I
(38:09):
think the Lions are the most overrated team in the
league right now. Like you look, look at last week.
I don't know, they were minus dying at home against
the Vikings. I can say that because I bet the
Vikings and they lost outright the JJ McCarthy. They never
lose those games coming out of a bye at home
with Jared Goff who owned the Vikings. It's not the same.
And now they might be without school, they might be
(38:31):
without Decker, They're already without a guard. I don't think
the defense is any good. Like what result this year,
Like they beat the Ravens, like that beat up Ravens defense.
They had a really good game plan against Lamar. But
other than that, like their best result is they beat
the all the backups on the Bucks like that's I
think the lines are extremely orated. But like Washington's a mess,
(38:51):
Like there's a lot of injuries on defense. I don't
know McLain's gonna play. You're gonna Mariota lou who suspended too, Like,
so I just can't get that to that number.
Speaker 2 (39:00):
I don't know. They beat your Ravens by eight.
Speaker 5 (39:02):
Yeah, I mean they could cover, but I just can't
get to that number. I'll say I'm gonna play my
flag on the Packers minus two and a half at
home against the Eagles. I think we're getting under three
because of last week flukey game and weather, the Packers
didn't punt once. Jordan Love still second EPA per play
among all quarterbacks behind Darnold. They just got too conservative
(39:24):
last week. Their special teams have been an issue. I
think you see them get more aggressive here this week.
I am not a believer in this Eagles team. Maybe
they come out of out of the by and look
a lot better. But they beat the basically the practice
squad of the Giants. But before then they should have
lost that Minnesota I think our luck rankings had that
as a seven point loss. The Vikings just couldn't score
(39:46):
in the red zone. They got blown out against the Giants.
They let bo Nicks come back and beat them. You
know they they like they should have lost to the Rams,
they should have lost to the Chiefs. They only beat
the Cowboys at home. Like this has not been impressive.
Is a team that still leads the league in three
and outright. I think the Packer's gonna be able to
get pressure. I still love this Green Day offense. I
(40:08):
think this Philly defense is way down this year. I
still I still think the Packers the best team in
the NFC. I'm getting them under a field go at home.
You bet taking it Packers minus two and a half draftings.
Speaker 2 (40:22):
Right, I think that's crazy head to head bets.
Speaker 1 (40:25):
My play at the Flag game is the Philadelphia Eagles
plus the two and a half I gotta.
Speaker 5 (40:29):
Add to the Packers. Now, I'm gonna I want some cheese.
I want some cheese. Ship we're head to head.
Speaker 1 (40:37):
I can't believe we're doing that.
Speaker 5 (40:39):
Yeah, let's let's bet for some cheese. I'll send you
some really good cheese.
Speaker 2 (40:42):
Wheel of cheese.
Speaker 4 (40:44):
Yeah, okay, this one's for a wheel of cheese. I'm
good with that. But you know what when I win crazy?
Speaker 1 (40:50):
When I win, I'm gonna I'm gonna melt my cheese
on a Philadelphia cheese steak right here. I have this,
So my my power rating has the Packers minus one.
That's not even accounting for the Tucker Craft injury. The
Packers offense kind of runs through him, and I'm not
exactly sure what he's worth to the spread, but it's
(41:11):
got to be at least half a point. So then
that would bump it down to Packers at nearly a pick.
And I'm getting plus two and a half on Philadelphia
off of a bye. I can't trust Jordan Love week
to week. I never know what version of him is
going to show up. How he's out here making moves too.
So if we're talking about bumping down the bad teams
that are gonna sell, can we bump up a team
(41:33):
that we know is going to be aggressive as they
already have? The Packers the only team in the NFL
this season also that have lost two games in which
they were a touchdown favorite two times to be.
Speaker 2 (41:45):
Bad teams just have the Packers. Well, that's poort number.
Speaker 1 (41:48):
That is definitely part of it. Matt Lafleur and Jordan
Love cannot be trusted as big favorites, and that's not
the case here. But the overall point that I wanted
to make to punctuate that is that if we're going
to make a statement stucky like we are overrating the
Detroit Lions, we've got to say that about the Green
Bay Packers at this point.
Speaker 5 (42:09):
The Packers who blew out the lines.
Speaker 4 (42:13):
They are on.
Speaker 3 (42:14):
The season total body lost to the Browns and the Panthers,
they're overrated.
Speaker 5 (42:20):
I disagree. So we'll find out on Monday. You're watching
the market.
Speaker 1 (42:24):
This block the team, block it if it closed, if
it closes it three, I'll bet the Eagles again.
Speaker 5 (42:33):
Why would you bet the Eagles now plus two and
a half because I don't.
Speaker 4 (42:35):
Think that I don't think the three is coming back.
Speaker 5 (42:37):
But again, you don't think that, you don't know it's
limits get to go up.
Speaker 2 (42:41):
During the notifications of the.
Speaker 5 (42:43):
There's there's no reason to back plus two and a
half now because if this goes to three, it'spect the
biggest key number in all of the NFL. Like you're
you're giving up so much equity that ticks starts to
tick down to two.
Speaker 1 (42:58):
If this goes back to three, I will I might
buy you. I'll buy you the cheese before I even
lose the bet. This one's not touching three.
Speaker 5 (43:06):
But who cares if it does or doesn't, you might
as well. Wait it's my point, That's all I'm saying.
Speaker 4 (43:10):
I mean two two is still key.
Speaker 5 (43:14):
Also, it's nowhere close to three, Like it's not even
in the same stratosphere.
Speaker 4 (43:22):
Three.
Speaker 2 (43:22):
When my parents fight in front of me, king.
Speaker 5 (43:24):
King, three is king if anyone missing out there just
no three is king in the NFL. If you have
your look, if you want a dog that's at two
and a half, wait, see if there's ever a three
that pumps.
Speaker 1 (43:37):
But three is about fifteen percent of the time. Two
is roughly four and a half. So to that point,
at and lately it's it's got that that that has shrunk.
Speaker 4 (43:50):
We're gonna get ahead of the market here.
Speaker 1 (43:51):
All right, Let's go our play at the flag games
the Lions minus eight and a half for Kendra. We've
got a head to head bet the Packers minus two
and a half for Stucky, Eagles plus two and a
half for me. And now time for the main event.
No betting week can start without it. It's It's the primer.
Courtesy of Evan Abrams. Evan, Welcome to the show. Where
(44:15):
do you land on the dog fight? That is Eagles Packers?
Speaker 7 (44:22):
So I had the Packers to win the Super Bowl
in the preseason. I feel like I felt good with
that pick up to the Panthers game, and I probably
would have felt good after the Panthers game if it
wasn't for the Craft injury. I feel like that makes
them a lot less versusile. So I think in this
game specifically, I will do exactly what Stucky says and
(44:43):
wait on the sidelines because if three comes, I think
Philly's the side. I don't think I could see myself
betting Green Bay after that injury and having to adjust
the offense so much. But it's gonna be a great game.
I mean that, plus Tampa Bay in New England. This
is like the best duo of games we've had in
a long time. I'm in the same.
Speaker 1 (45:00):
Week, Yeah, and I'm excited that I'm this invested in
a Monday night football game. It feels like it's been
a while. Nice to get that standalone to end the week.
What are the trends that we need to be aware
of before we go firing away on the apps?
Speaker 7 (45:16):
Just a few fun things off the bat here. So
Arizona last night obviously takes care of Dallas. NFC West
eighteen and seven now against the spread versus teams outside
of the NFC West this year, that's the best mark
through nine weeks for any.
Speaker 5 (45:30):
Division since twenty twenty. So all four teams in the
NFC West.
Speaker 7 (45:34):
Above five hundred this year, Seattle and the Rams at
the top of the NFL and ATS at the moment,
So some fun stuff going on out West. There only
division as well where all four teams are above five hundred.
Speaker 6 (45:46):
ATS other than that, to me the lion stuff that
Kendrew was talking about, Like, you're gonna hear it everywhere,
but one uncovered twelve straight games after a loss since
November one.
Speaker 7 (45:59):
Of twenty twenty two. That was the last time we
saw them lose after a loss. You're gonna hear it
everywhere this week. That is the longest streak and I'm
going through right now. I can find in a long
time for any team after a loss. So everyone thinks
it's automatic. The line kind of shows it, but that
is a streak. You will hear a lot of Yeah,
just like that.
Speaker 5 (46:16):
Yeah, like last week more than last week, they were
eight to zer against the spread in their last eight
against the Vikings, they were like ten and one against
the spread after bye. This ain't the same lines team
telling you correct.
Speaker 7 (46:27):
Yeah, And that's what everyone is going to make the
assumption of also action number percentages right now early week
seventy eight percent of tickets on Detroit, ninety eight percent
of the money. Like, everybody is going to just make
the assumption on Detroit this week.
Speaker 5 (46:42):
So we will see there.
Speaker 7 (46:43):
The other one, if you're just gonna look at the board,
Carolina min is five and a half, pretty funny, it's
their biggest game favorite since twenty twenty one. They've lost
ten straight as a favorite as well, So we will
see how that goes for them against the lonely.
Speaker 5 (46:57):
Saints, and Saints might be traders sellers, as we said, correct,
they could be, they might go higher.
Speaker 4 (47:03):
Yeah.
Speaker 8 (47:03):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (47:05):
One of the other things that I am betting against
here is I do think there's gonna be some market
sentiment on Okay, the Packers lost as big underdogs, this
is a bounce back opportunity, I would I would think,
let me be very clear about transparent. I think the
Eagles are going to have a high percentage of the
bets this week. But I do think there's going to
(47:26):
be a line of thinking for Packers backers that because
they were such a big favorite last week and they lost,
that this is a buying opportunity on them. They are
the largest favorites to lose outright. Since the Titans beat
the Dolphins as fourteen and a half point underdogs. I
think that game was in prime time too, Week fourteen
of the twenty twenty three season. Any recollection, now this
(47:49):
is a very limited sample, but any recollection as to
what the Dolphins did the following week after they were
two touchdown favorites and lost the game outright.
Speaker 7 (48:00):
It's funny, I thought you actually asked me this question
kind of facetiously because they want thirty nothing against the
Jets the next week, which obviously says great things about
what the situation was. But I also have to mention
it was the Jets. But if you look in our database,
teams lose by twelve as at twelve and a half
plus point favorite nineteen twelve and two ats in the
(48:20):
next game. Super small sample size and a lot of
noise there. But I do probably think there is like
a motivational comeback to the meme. Plus the line probably
drops on the clothes for the team that we thought
was really good, So I think there's a few factors
buying in there.
Speaker 5 (48:36):
But it's it's tight. That's basically my reason. I think
the past and teams are going to lose flukey games.
What ad the outain them by one hundred and twenty
didn't punt one time in the game. Yeah, then miss
field rolls like those weather and I look back the
remember the Chiefs lost of the Raiders at home last year.
The Ravens lost to the Raiders at home and then
won like ten of eleven and everyone was like panicking,
(48:59):
the Ravens are all and two. They lost to Garner
Minshew and the Raiders in Baltimore, and you know, I
think they covered like six and row after that. I
think that's what's driving it. I think designed you b three.
I think it would have been three if the Packers
one and now we're getting to an alf So that's
basically the main reason to my bad. But we also
(49:21):
have we also have Lamar first half trend and Lamar
varus NFC. I'll be looking at Raven's first half this
week under a field goal.
Speaker 1 (49:30):
Anything post trade deadline trends wise that we should be
aware of. Is there anything you have anything on that,
Evan before we wrap?
Speaker 5 (49:37):
Yeah.
Speaker 7 (49:38):
So the only thing that I find interesting, and I
kind of dug into this a little bit, is the
closing lines into the trade deadline weeks. So I'll have
something about that in my article, but I wanted to
dig a little bit further because you have to pin
the trade deadline hasn't been the same every year, so
I'm looking into it a little bit, So check out
the primer for that. But I do think it tends
to be in an outline week in the sense that
(50:01):
teams get worse and teams get better. But mostly it's
the teams get worse angle because sometimes the players don't
play right away for the teams they go to. But
like a team like the Raiders could be extremely decimated
and the line could rise a few points, which actually
would probably give some value to Vegas in that spot.
Speaker 5 (50:19):
So yeah, that that's what I was This is very
hard to parse through because this is something I wanted
to look at, So I don't know how you'll end
up doing it because you don't going back to every
year and then saying like here's the teams that traded
someone key and here's the ones that got.
Speaker 7 (50:34):
Versus injuries, which would take so long. I was just
gonna look at line movement in trade deadline week.
Speaker 5 (50:39):
That's what I was gonna suggest. Look, I would filter
like the worst team so like win percentage really low
line moves against them by a certain amount, didn't move
too much, right, so like is there? Yeah, this would
be my thought to say. And then on the on
the flip side, some of the best teams who hadded
someone that first week is it is the market overreacting,
(51:02):
which it certainly could. I would tend to think over time,
even if it's just slightly, the market probably overreacts in
general in totality.
Speaker 8 (51:14):
For so, the funny thing is the line might overreact
for a player that may not even end up playing
that week anyway, Like just with the team making a
trade for a player, the line going up and maybe
that player, you know, Yeah, and then.
Speaker 5 (51:27):
On the flip side, the narrative of like all this
team's quit, they're selling, and then people just betting against them,
and then it goes a little too far. So interesting. Yeah,
make sure you check out Evan's private love something on
that for sure.
Speaker 4 (51:39):
Actionally work at and fade the narratives.
Speaker 1 (51:41):
The Favorites is a wrap for today special thanks to
our producers David Paine and Gifford Gould. We'll be back
at it on Thursday on the Action Network YouTube page
where we talk week ten best of bets and our
two Kings and a Queen parlay. We'll see if we
can go back to back this week. We'll see you
next time here on the Favorites presented by Draft Kings
or Out Go Pat Goat.
Speaker 2 (52:12):
Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or
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