May 16, 2025 • 49 mins
On this episode of The Middle, we ask how tariffs are affecting you - whether you're a small business owner or just feeling the pressure from price increases. Jeremy is joined by Financial Times business columnist and associate editor Rana Foroohar and financial analyst Juli Niemann. DJ Tolliver joins as well, plus calls from around the country. #tariffs #US #China #prices #gas #eggs #costofliving #UK #Canada #EU
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:05):
Welcome to the Middle.
Speaker 2 (00:06):
I'm Jeremy Hobson, along with our house DJ Tolliver and Taliver.
I'm gonna start with a confession this hour, which is
that until recently I always misspelled the word tariff. I
thought it was two rs and one F. But now
that we have to talk about it all the time,
I know that it is actually tariff.
Speaker 3 (00:23):
Wait, it's not a pH.
Speaker 1 (00:24):
At the end, you win if you wish.
Speaker 2 (00:27):
So this hour, we want to take advantage of our
amazing middle audience and find out how the tariffs are
being felt so far across the country. And it might
be a little hard to tell because prices may not
have trickled down to the consumer yet. In fact, Walmart
today said people will start seeing increases later this month.
But also the Trump administration has gone after companies like
(00:48):
Amazon that wanted to tell consumers how much the tariffs
were impacting prices. So we don't know exactly. But one
thing I want to say to listeners is are you
a business owner who's making business decisions because of the
tariffs that you're already seeing, or are you not a
business owner but you're being more cautious about what you're
buying or maybe you don't want to quit that job
(01:08):
that you hate because you have some uncertainty about the economy,
or maybe you work in manufacturing and you're excited about
the tariffs, or maybe you're a farmer. I definitely want
to hear from a farmer this hour. In all those cases,
you can call us at eight four four four middle.
That's eight four four four six four three three five three.
So Tolliver, let's just set the table, first of all,
(01:30):
with what has happened. Help me out here.
Speaker 4 (01:33):
February first, ten percent tariffs on everything from China, twenty
five percent on Canada and Mexico, and February third, thirty
day paws in Canada and Mexico. March fourth, okay, so
make that twenty percent now on goodsome China, and March
sixth another thirty day paws on Canada and Mexico. April second,
(01:54):
you know, it's Liberation Day, one hundred and forty five
percent tariffs on China and increase tariffs most other countries.
And also April second, ninety day pause on the other
countries after the bond market freaks out.
Speaker 1 (02:07):
And finally May twelfth, Tulliver, Okay.
Speaker 3 (02:09):
Make that thirty percent, not one hundred and forty five
percent on most goods from China for ninety days. And listen,
the day's not over yet.
Speaker 1 (02:17):
Right right exactly today? Well, thank you Tulliver for that.
Speaker 2 (02:20):
And here's President Trump earlier this week talking about that
ninety day trade truce with China.
Speaker 5 (02:25):
In addition, yesterday we achieved a total reset with China
after productive talks in Geneva. Both sides now agree to
reduce the tariffs imposed after April second to ten percent
for ninety days as negotiators continue in the largest structural issues.
And it doesn't include tariffs on cars, steel, aluminum, things
(02:50):
such as that, or tariffs that may be imposed on
pharmaceuticals because we want to bring the pharmaceutical businesses back.
Speaker 2 (02:58):
So maybe watch this space on that. But given all that,
how are the tariffs affecting you? Tolliver the phone number again, please?
Speaker 3 (03:04):
Yeah, you can call us at eight four four four
Middle that's eight four four four sixty four three three
five three, or you can write to us at listen
to the Middle dot com. I'm checking all the emails,
so send them in. You can also comment on our
live stream on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (03:16):
Well joining me now, Rona Faruja, Associate editor and business
columnists at The Financial Times. Rana, welcome to the.
Speaker 6 (03:22):
Middle Hey, thanks for having me.
Speaker 2 (03:24):
So before we get to the phones with all that
back and forth Rona that we just re enacted, Are
we in a different economy now than we were back
in January? Is their substantial change at the end of
the day.
Speaker 7 (03:39):
Yeah.
Speaker 6 (03:39):
Absolutely. You know, I was actually talking to a Princeton
historian today and he was walking me through some of
the biggest historical changes in the economy in the last
one hundred years, and he put this one right up
right up there. You know, it's it's there with World
War One, it's there with the Great Depression. I mean,
this is a rebalancing. I'm not saying that we've seen
(04:02):
those kinds of results yet, but in terms of what
Trump is trying to do, which is fundamentally overturn the
Brettonwoods trading system and the Washington Consensus that was the
idea that America was kind of setting the rules of
the road. Free trade was one of them. You know,
(04:24):
that's gone by the wayside. So ten percent seems to
be the new normal. We're going to see how that's
going to trickle out and it's going to happen at
different rates in different industries and different parts of the country.
But I don't think anybody could say that this isn't
a pretty massive shift.
Speaker 2 (04:42):
Are you seeing anything in the data yet? Are you
seeing anything that shows you that consumers are feeling the
tariffs already or even uncertainty because of the tariffs?
Speaker 6 (04:54):
Oh, yeah, for sure you are. I mean, consumer confidence
is at multi year lows. It hasn't been this low
in quite some time. You have seen some price increases,
I think, you know, go go look for a car
these days, even a used car, and you know you'll
see you'll see the prices have absolutely gone up. We've
(05:14):
seen one off items, certain kinds of agricultural items. Walmart
has already started raising prices, for example, on things like
electronics and toys where you have a lot of components
coming from China. Other products. It's going to take a
while to filter through. But one of the things that's
also happening that's quite fascinating to me is companies are
(05:36):
waking up and as they, you know, kind of accept
the reality of this, they're beginning to realize, oh gosh,
we actually need that critical mineral from China that we
can't access anymore, or that might be multiple times more expensive.
You know, that component part that we thought was not
a big deal is suddenly a big deal. Pharmaceuticals, I
(05:57):
think you're going to start hearing about, particularly if we
don't get a deal with India, because a lot of
basic pharmaceuticals, generic pharmaceuticals, and inputs come from India. So
imagine if we had, say another big unusual viral outbreak
right now, and you needed certain kinds of medicine, and
then suddenly the American public realizes, oh, wait a minute,
we don't we can't get those with you know, and
(06:19):
it's you know, you're back in COVID all over again.
So that's the kind of thing that I think is
probably going to be rolling down the pike.
Speaker 2 (06:25):
So square that with the stock market, which seems to
have rebounded mostly from what happened, you know, right after
Trump announced Liberation Day and there was a huge collapse
in the stock market, and it's kind of come back
since then. Why are they not so concerned on Wall Street?
Speaker 6 (06:40):
Well a few reasons. You know, let's speak, the stock
market is not the best measure of the smart money.
The smart money looks at the bond market, and the
bond market is still saying blinking red. I mean bond
deals have gone down a little bit, which means investors
are kind of Okay, let's see what happens here. We're
not really really upset, but we're but stock prices are up.
(07:01):
That's because retail investors, who frankly aren't looking maybe as
deeply as they should be at how permanent these changes
are likely to be, are saying, oh, we got to
deal with China, even though let's be clear, this isn't
a deal. This is a ninety day pause, after which
there could be more volatile right afterwards, there could be
higher rates. So the market goes up. When if we
(07:24):
hear something bad about tarots tomorrow, you know the market's
going to go down. I would not take that as
any indication that things have fundamentally stabilized. In fact, I
personally think we're going to be in probably for a
couple of years of this, if not more.
Speaker 2 (07:40):
Wow, that's really interesting. Let me bring in our other
guest for the hour, Julie Meeman, who's a veteran financial
analyst joining us from Saint Louis. Julie, are you seeing
any data right now, or you seeing consumers behaving differently
because of the tariffs that exist, even if they're down
from what they were.
Speaker 8 (08:01):
Well, it's more of.
Speaker 9 (08:01):
Those psychological things. And yes, everybody's already changing. They've already
started doing the first key thing, and that's basically starting
to pull back and substitute. So they're giving up some
of their favorite brands and starting the substitute. They're watching
to see what's going to happen to it. But we've
already seen the prices going up here. I don't know
who's doing the surveying. The prices have been going up
(08:22):
for several months now, not dramatically. It's kind of like
the slow boiling of water and you don't know you're
getting cooked. But that's exactly what's going on with this now.
Slowly but surely, the prices are all going up. So
we are seeing a lot of people also starting to
stop pile the things that they get that have our imports.
So everybody's alert to this and they're doing something about it.
Speaker 2 (08:45):
All right, Let's get to caller Pam, who's calling from
Highland Park, Illinois.
Speaker 1 (08:50):
Pam, welcome to the middle. Are you feeling the tariffs.
Speaker 10 (08:54):
Yeah, absolutely, Hi there, how are you going?
Speaker 1 (08:56):
Great?
Speaker 11 (08:57):
Oh good?
Speaker 10 (08:59):
My husband and I own a small bicycle shop in Winnetka, Illinois,
so just close to where we live, and there is
not one thing in our stores that won't be affected
or hasn't been affected by the tarrat. We are receiving
phone calls and emails every day for hours.
Speaker 1 (09:22):
Pam, you's still there.
Speaker 3 (09:26):
Oh I was so invested.
Speaker 2 (09:27):
I really I want to hear Yeah, yeah, well totally.
But but you know, Rona, that's that's that's interesting. I
wonder if we're going to hear a lot of that
this hour.
Speaker 6 (09:37):
Well, I hope so. And frankly, I love that this
is a woman with a small business who's speaking out.
I mean, you mentioned earlier how a number of companies,
Amazon being one of them, have been squashed by the
President when they try to say, hey, this is this
is a this is a thing where this is going
to affect people. Surely he won't be able to get
(09:57):
to every small and mid sized business to do this,
and I think it's very brave for people to start
talking about this.
Speaker 1 (10:03):
It is real. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (10:05):
By the way, you said, Ronna that you believe that
ten percent is here to stay. That that's going to
be the new normal for even years from now.
Speaker 6 (10:14):
Yes, if you look historically at tariffs, once they go up,
it takes decades for them to go down, and I
think that that will be the case this time around,
in part because and we have certainly not seen the
full blow of this. The rest of the world is
pissed at US. I mean they are really upset and
(10:35):
that you know, they are figuring out what their next
moves are. And let me tell you, I bet we're
not done with what China may do in terms of
retribution counteractions. Similarly, Europe is circling the wagons and realizing, Okay,
the US is not going to defend us anymore. We're
gonna need to defend ourselves. We're gonna we're gonna start
(10:57):
maybe unifying more as a as a trading block our
and as an economic block. They're they're in talks with
countries like Canada that have been snubbed by the President
and so you know, all that may end up having
an impact that we'll feel down the line as well.
Speaker 1 (11:13):
Well.
Speaker 2 (11:13):
Stand by, Tolliver, I have very good news for you,
which is Pam is back and we're going to go
to her right after the break, so we can hear
exactly what's going on there in Highland Park. But I
said I can spell tariff. Now that's in portant because
we just did a show a few weeks ago with
former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers on this topic.
Speaker 3 (11:30):
Yeah, and you asked them what advice you'd give to
Trump if he were working in the White House right now,
and on the issue of tariffs. Here's what he said.
Speaker 7 (11:36):
You need to end this. You need to have there
be a stable, non protectionist regime that's not pushing American
prices way up, it's not hurting the competitiveness of businesses
who can't get inputs. And you need to show people
(11:58):
that you recognize have learned the lessons of the very
painful experience of the last two weeks.
Speaker 1 (12:05):
Maybe Trump was listening to the Middle last week, Tolliver,
I'm pretty sure it was possible.
Speaker 7 (12:10):
Favorite show.
Speaker 1 (12:11):
We'll be right back with more of the Middle. This
is the Middle. I'm Jeremy Hobson.
Speaker 2 (12:17):
If you're just tuning in the Middle as a national
call in show, we're focused on elevating voices from the
middle geographically, politically and philosophically or maybe you just want
to meet in the Middle. This hour, we're asking you
how the tariffs are affecting you. Tolliver, what is the
number to call in It's.
Speaker 3 (12:30):
Eight four four four Middle. That's eight four four four
six four three three five three. You can also write
to us to listen to the Middle dot com. I'm
checking all your emails or on social media checking all that.
So reach out.
Speaker 2 (12:40):
And I'm joined by Financial Times business columnists and associate
editor Rona Farujar and financial analyst Julie Nieman. And let's
go back to Pam in Highland Park, Illinois. Pam, Sorry
we lost you there for a second, but you were
about to say that you're seeing the tariff's impact just
about everything in your store.
Speaker 12 (12:57):
Yeah.
Speaker 10 (12:57):
Absolutely. I think I was saying that we're getting emails
and calls every day from our suppliers talking about what
the potential impacts are going to be. They are registering
the uncertainty. We've actually had one supplier already closed their doors,
so you know, we're seeing this day to day and
(13:18):
we have you know, when we try to talk with
our customers about what it's going to be like, because
they ask and the short answer is we don't really know.
We have one supplier that has already decided not to
import the smallest children's bikes because they don't think that
they can justify the cost. And it is a primary
(13:39):
large bicycle manufacturer. They are the largest bicycle manufacturer in
the world, and they will not be importing twelve and
sixteen inch children's bikes anymore.
Speaker 2 (13:49):
So would you say, then, Pam, that really what you're
seeing is a supply issue. It's hard to get the things.
What about the prices being passed down to the consumers?
Speaker 10 (13:59):
That is also going to happen. So what we're hearing
now from our suppliers is, yes, some things are going
to be harder to get because they have to make
strategic decisions about what they think they can get through
and what is going to provide the best opportunity for
sale on a day to day basis. But all of
those suppliers are also saying, we're going to have to
(14:22):
pass these costs along to the to our buyers and
our consumers. So those costs are going to pass on
to us, and then we have to pass them on
to the consumer as well.
Speaker 2 (14:34):
And do you register your your unhappiness with this with
your representatives. Are you Are you letting people in Washington
know how you feel about these tariffs.
Speaker 12 (14:43):
Absolutely.
Speaker 10 (14:45):
As a matter of fact, we have a member of
Congress who's one of our customers, so we talk regularly. Yeah,
and he is equally he is equally frustrated. You know,
there's there's only so much that can and be done.
A lot of this has to do, though, with the
uncertainty and the fact that we aren't really certain at
(15:06):
this point if the tariffs are actually a strategic, long
term issue or if they are in fact simply.
Speaker 9 (15:16):
A whipsaw of chaos.
Speaker 1 (15:18):
Yeah.
Speaker 10 (15:18):
And the big differential for everybody in that is that
if they are a long term strategic issue, first of all,
it's way to too broadcasts.
Speaker 13 (15:29):
There are good.
Speaker 10 (15:29):
Ways to make strategic decisions about tariffs. This is not it, Yeah, but.
Speaker 2 (15:35):
Long we've got it there. Let me let me go
to our guest. Now, I really appreciate your call, but
on the issue of the ultimate.
Speaker 1 (15:42):
Goal here, Rona Faruhar.
Speaker 2 (15:46):
You know, we've heard that the Trump administration is doing
this because they want to stop fentanyl from coming into
the country. Although then you would wonder why is the
tariff the same, Why was it originally the same on
Canada as on Mexico, that this is about bringing manufacturing
jobs back to the United States. But if that's the case,
why drop the Tariffact down to a lower level after
some trouble in the bond market?
Speaker 1 (16:06):
Do you see an overall goal here?
Speaker 6 (16:09):
So I've got a couple answers to that. Let me
let me if I can just do as a historical
speed round, because I think it would help Trump one
comes in and Trump one. You know, Trump got in politically,
and I'm from the middle. I'm from Indiana. My my
county went from you know, Clinton County seventy five percent Trump.
(16:29):
He talked the right talk about manufacturing jobs and about
workers in places that have been hollowed out there. The
China shock is real. A lot of communities I grew
up in one have, you know, have have really been
hit hard. When he came into office. You then saw
there Bob Leithheiser, the USTR at the time, who I
(16:51):
really have a lot of respect for, had put very
surgical tariffs on China on particular kinds of goods that
I think was a good idea because it is true
that the Chinese have very mercantilist practices and and a
lot of countries would agree with this. Biden then comes
in and says, all right, that's the away game, but
(17:13):
we need a home game too, and we have to
like build you know, build a chips industry, build a
clean energy industry, and support businesses here. Now you've got
Trump too, and there is a kind of a grand
plan that's been articulated by Steve Miran, who's the head
of the Council of Economic Advisors, to say, look, we've
got to rebalance the global economy as a whole. The
US dollar is making goods too expensive coming out of
(17:37):
the US into other countries. It means that we lose
manufacturing jobs. I think there's something to that, but but
you have to do you have to thread that needle carefully.
You have to work with allies, which is what Biden
was trying to do, you know, cutting new deals with Europeans,
reaching out to the Canadians. Trump comes in and puts
tariffs on adversaries and allies alike, and people don't know
(18:00):
what to think and we've lost trust. So I'm concerned
about how that's going to play out.
Speaker 2 (18:07):
Yeah, let's go to Kenneth, who's in Asheville, North Carolina.
Speaker 1 (18:10):
Kenneth, Welcome to the middle.
Speaker 13 (18:11):
Go ahead, Yeah, hello, Yeah, I'm in Ashville, North Carolina,
and where my family and I are still displaced from Helene.
Went through the whole FEMA experience, and then I lost
my job in December. Ironically, I worked for a nonprofit
trying to allocate emergency funds, and so when the tariffs
(18:36):
happened and all of them were announced, we were still
kind of an emergency mode. You know. We just bought
our generator after the storm and all this stuff, so
we were ready to like go out and buy a
bunch of stuff we thought the prices would shoot up on.
And then all the tariffs got taken out or you know,
shifted and moved around, and I just felt like it
was a bait and switch, and I felt like, oh,
(18:57):
you know, I feel like they're trying to scare me
into buying a bunch of stuff that, yeah, the prices
probably will go up on. But I don't avoid not
having gotten much from FEMA, you know, stilling a disaster zone.
As far as I'm concerned, Am I really going to
pour my money into this stuff? Even if I know
the prices are going to go up because there's not
Really it's not a great time to go on credit.
Speaker 2 (19:17):
You know, right, Yeah, Kenneth, I really appreciate your call
and best of luck with that, Julie Nieman. That is
so interesting to hear just an individual who says I'm
going to go out and buy things now because they
might go up in price and then gets angry when
they don't because the tariffs get taken away.
Speaker 9 (19:36):
Well, he and everybody is the victim of total chaos
in that three range surface in Washington, DC. Nobody knows
how things work or what the implications are the fallout is,
and when you start firing the people who know how
things work, then the entire agency goes into chaos. So
there's not one single agency that can give guidance. You
(19:56):
don't have any kind of plan or a forecast at
this point, CEO, those are giving up on it. It's
just total chaos. The market, on the other hand, is
paying no attention to that. They're looking for just the
little signals here and there. It's a trading market. Blow
it off, pay no attention to stock market. It is
wrecking total chaos with the economy. Though, will it be
a recession. That's really hard to see at this point.
(20:18):
But if it goes on much longer, yes there will be.
Speaker 1 (20:21):
Julie, you're in Saint Louis.
Speaker 2 (20:22):
You don't have to drive very far to find farmers
who make a lot of money selling things like soybeans
to China. China put one hundred and twenty five percent
tariff on imports from the US in response to the
US tariffs on Chinese goods, which they have since reduced.
But are you hearing from farmers or what are you
supposed to do if you're a farmer right now?
Speaker 9 (20:42):
Well, they've gotten the biggest insurance from Trump. That's he's
going to get money out to them to compensate them
for the big tariff that's coming in. Now. That isn't
government money, that's money the taxpayers are providing. So we're
going to be providing money on a tariff that never
should have been put on. For one thing. You don't
put tariffs on food. That is the most ridiculous thing
(21:02):
in the world. You do it in strategic equipment, certain
key things in trade, not on food. And that's where
a lot of this is going and what's going to
cause even more problems here. But if the farmers do
get those nice the paychecks to cushion it, it's coming
directly from the taxpayers, and we're paying for it, So
we're continuing to pay for their screw ups.
Speaker 1 (21:23):
Tolliver, I know some comments are coming in online.
Speaker 3 (21:25):
Yeah, we actually just got one. A second new I love.
This is Larissa. She says, I work in pharmacy. I
wonder how many people understand that medicines are largely imported.
Pharmaceuticals are supposedly exempt from tariffs. But I'm holding my breath,
as are so many people, as so many people are
saying it's the uncertainties that are making me lose sleep.
There's some other ones, but I got to tell you
(21:46):
they're pretty vitriolic.
Speaker 9 (21:49):
For fun.
Speaker 2 (21:51):
All right, if you'd all right, well, we'll keep it
g rated for now. Let's go to Scott, who's in Houston, Texas. Hi, Scott,
go ahead with your thoughts about the tariffs. Are you
being affected by them?
Speaker 14 (22:04):
Yeah?
Speaker 15 (22:04):
Hi, everybody, you know, it's it's I feel kind of
like we're all just sitting here waiting, you know. It's
it's it's one day it's up, one day it's down.
Whether it's the market, whether that's yeah, we're gonna have
terair assess or no, we're not. But I know for us,
you know, we're a family business. We're super lucky to
have had the following we've had in Houston for twenty
five years. But I mean we're still feeling the effects
(22:27):
of what COVID brought, honestly, and you know, prices of
goods from twenty twenty to where we are now. You
pick any product that we use dairy proteins, which, by
the way, if you eat Lamb and pretty much any
restaurant in the United States or really anywhere in the
world that's coming from New Zealand or Australia. So there
(22:48):
you go, right there. And I mean that's that's gone
up in upwards of fifty percent just for you know,
Lamb stops right so you know.
Speaker 1 (22:58):
It's and if you pass those costs onto consum.
Speaker 15 (23:02):
So that's an interesting point I wanted to bring up. No,
I mean, we we have now our menu prices since
twenty twenty, we have jumped fifteen percent, and the biggest
jump came about twenty two or twenty three, where we're
just kind of sitting around looking like Okay, we've opened
back up, but I can't get anything. Cost of goods
(23:22):
are gone up. Those like everybody's trying to get the
same container to pack food to go because that was
still a majority of our business at the time. Hurricanes
come through and rip out like factories in Lake Charles
and Louisiana, and suddenly like plastics or other you know,
products that would go for making these containers aren't even available.
Forget the fact that we're in a worldwide pandemic or
(23:43):
trying to come out of it at a time. So
there's just so much going on, and that's that's it's
just stacking on. It's just one thing after the other,
you know. Yeah, and so yeah, I mean we yep,
go ahead.
Speaker 2 (23:58):
Well, no, that's it's a great And I want to
ask ronof Rujer about that. When you hear Scott talk
about prices going up for him and just coming out
of the pandemic, but then not passing some onto the consumers,
is that surprising?
Speaker 1 (24:11):
Not really.
Speaker 6 (24:12):
I mean, I think businesses of all sizes have been
trying to eat as much as they can frankly of
this because you know, they want to keep their customers happy.
They don't want to lose business. They don't want to
see people buttoning up their walllle as. I was concerned though,
just recently to hear the CEO of Walmart say, you
know what, We're just going to have to pass these
(24:34):
costs on. They're too big, they're too broad, and when
Walmart can't eat costs, you know that others are going
to have a hard time eventually.
Speaker 2 (24:43):
Well, I mean, I guess on the other hand, Walmart
is so big that they may in many playss not
have any real competitors except for maybe Amazon, so they
don't have to think about things like a restaurant would,
where you know, they might have another restaurant down the
street that people say, oh, this one's getting too expensive,
I'll go to that one instead. Walmart is in a
sort of a category of.
Speaker 6 (25:00):
Its own, well one hundred percent. But you're kind of
proving my point that, you know, if they feel under
pressure about this, that those that are, you know, in
smaller and mid sized businesses, which, by the way, every
economist I know says, sme, small mid sized businesses, family businesses,
local shops, they're going to be hit much harder by this.
And this was also the case in COVID. I will say,
(25:22):
when COVID hit, you saw the biggest retailers, Amazon, Target, Walmart.
Those folks were able to use their size and scale
to you know, get faster container cargo shipping. They were
able to cut deals. It's much much harder when you
don't have that kind of size and scale to cope
(25:44):
in an environment like this.
Speaker 2 (25:46):
Let's go to Margaret, who's in Wilmington, Delaware. Hi, Margaret,
how are you feeling the tariffs? I?
Speaker 9 (25:52):
Hi, hello to everyone.
Speaker 12 (25:55):
A couple of observations. I have been trying to get
an electric blanket twin size for several months, and I
was following Amazon, and when tariffs were announced, you know,
they're just gone. They I guess everyone went and bought
because they're thinking, well, you know, come next winter, they're
(26:17):
going to be twice as much. So I haven't been
able to get any of the ones that I was
looking for. Walmart did have some on their website, but
they're all undesirable colors again that I was looking for. Okay,
if I want dark gray or some other weird color, yes,
(26:37):
walmert das undisibles. But what I was looking for on Amazon,
that was the best price it's gone. I ended up
buying a different size because I'd rather have one than
not none at all.
Speaker 1 (26:51):
Right, yeah, you know.
Speaker 6 (26:52):
You're seeing that. If I could just jump in, because
you're seeing this in so many categories. You know, you're
seeing it in clothing, you're seeing it in cars, and
it's actually part this is a classic inflationary spiral because
people see it is going to be more expensive, most
likely next year, and so you you you get ahead
of it, you you hoard that causes shortages, which then
(27:14):
cause inflation.
Speaker 8 (27:16):
Hmm, Margaret, thank you very I'm worry about that, but
I also have, like you know, we open an occasional
good bottle of champagne when it's somebody's birthday, and that's
going to go up really much.
Speaker 12 (27:29):
Absolutely, so we are concerned, you know.
Speaker 15 (27:32):
Yeah, Yeah, it's very difficult.
Speaker 2 (27:35):
It's just I mean, I don't want I don't want
to offend any of our listeners. Maybe in the wine
making industry in California, but it's just not the same.
I once did a story about champagne versus prosecco versus
sparkling wine, and.
Speaker 1 (27:46):
It's just not the same.
Speaker 7 (27:47):
Uh.
Speaker 2 (27:48):
There's a reason you pay so much for the real thing.
Let's go, let's get another collar in before the break.
Speaker 1 (27:55):
Here.
Speaker 2 (27:55):
Pam is in Malvern, Pennsylvania. Pam, how are you feeling
the tariffs?
Speaker 16 (28:01):
I'm not yet, But I was doing some research for
myself today on the internet and I wondered where the
tariffs that are collected go. Where does that money go?
And what I read was that it goes to the
United States Treasury, and I believe I also read that
at that point the administration can do whatever it pleases
(28:22):
with the money.
Speaker 2 (28:24):
So interesting, that's that's it, you know, Yeah, because Pam,
they we heard that. I think last month the Trump
administration says they brought in sixteen billion dollars from the
tariff from the customs collections because of the tariffs, Julie,
do you know anything about about the about the money
that comes in or do you think that that's a
benefit of the tariffs?
Speaker 9 (28:46):
Oh, that's a direct cause. This is why they want it,
because that money is going to pay for renewal of
all the height of the tech build that's going through
that benefits the top one percent, and so that will
be content. That's where the big benefits are. So the
tariffs are going to pay for us to continue on
what the tax bill that is currently being pushed to Congress,
(29:09):
which only benefits top income earners.
Speaker 2 (29:12):
RNA is right, RNA is there. Does the administration just
they can they can they do whatever they want with
that money.
Speaker 6 (29:18):
Pretty much, pretty much, And that's correct that it is
part of what they're hoping is going to offset this
tax bill, which you know, the markets are not buying it.
People are very, very worried about the debt and deficit
levels that the tax bill is going to cause.
Speaker 2 (29:32):
Yeah, well, Tolliver, We've been hearing from ordinary Americans this hour.
But Trump's trade war has illicited reactions from some of
the most important people in business and politics.
Speaker 3 (29:42):
As an understatement, man, here's Chinese President Sheijen Ping, Massachusetts
Massachusetts steel manufacturer Stephen Capone, JP, Morgan Chase CEO, Jamie Diamond,
and Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett.
Speaker 1 (29:55):
Trade should not be a weapon. It's a big mistake
in my view.
Speaker 7 (30:00):
The tariff sound stiff. It's a tall task, but we
need to do something to lower cost for our companies,
for our workers.
Speaker 16 (30:07):
I thought it was too large, too big, and too resumes.
Speaker 1 (30:09):
Started, but it's okay, to save it's unfair. We want
to fix it.
Speaker 17 (30:13):
And China's President Xi Jinping is now responding to President
Trump for the first time Fine Night, saying that China
does not fear economic suppression, but adding there are no
winners in a tariff war.
Speaker 2 (30:26):
NBC's Peter Alexander they're playing the role of Shijinping Tolliver.
Speaker 1 (30:31):
He did a good job.
Speaker 3 (30:32):
He did a good job, better than I would.
Speaker 1 (30:34):
Yeah, we'll be back with more of your amazing calls
on the Middle. This is the Middle.
Speaker 2 (30:39):
I'm Jeremy Hobson, and this hour we're asking you how
the tariffs are affecting you. You can call us at
eight four four four Middle. That's eight four four four
six four three three five three. You can reach out
it listen to the Middle dot com. My guests are
financial analyst Julie Neeman and Financial Times business columnists and
associate editor Rona Farujar. Such great calls. Let's get back
to the phones. Mike is in Lake Forest, Illinois. Hi, Mike,
(31:00):
how are the tariffs affecting you?
Speaker 11 (31:03):
Well, they're destroying my business. I'm kind of a solo entrepreneur.
I import mosquito net tents, for summer camps, and I
take my orders and negotiate pricing in December, reduce the
product in the spring, and it all sells during the summer.
So if I don't get in by Junior May, I
don't sell anything. And the terraffs were zero on my
product originally, and then when I had to pay for
(31:26):
the shipping, it's went to one. And it's funny now
I kind of wish.
Speaker 15 (31:30):
I was paying only eighty percent.
Speaker 2 (31:33):
Yeah, by comparison, what are you going to do? Are
you going to be able to stay in business?
Speaker 16 (31:39):
I was going to eat.
Speaker 11 (31:40):
I have to eat the colletscuse I can't change the
price with my buyers. And I do sell some on Amazon,
but I'm going to wait and see what my competitors
do before I raise prices.
Speaker 2 (31:49):
Mike, what do you make of the fact that the
stock market seems to have rebounded from where it was?
Do you think that they're just crazy on Wall Street?
Speaker 11 (31:58):
I don't think the stock market it's very good indicator
what's going on. People are just reacting day to day
to get their money out and putting back in, and
getting it back out and putting back in because nobody
else to put it.
Speaker 2 (32:09):
Yeah, Mike, thank you very much for that call. Uh
ron A, what do you what do you think of that?
Another business owner who is having to eat the costs
of these tariffs and really scared about the future.
Speaker 6 (32:21):
Well, I think two things. I mean, for starters, what
an interesting product mosquito nets. Nobody thought that was going
to get cut off, you know, cut off or caught
up in.
Speaker 7 (32:30):
This who ha.
Speaker 6 (32:31):
And I'm hearing from people all the time with these
kinds of problems. Just you know, I really think this
pharmaceutical input issue is going to become very important. A
lot of what goes in antibiotics comes from from India.
There are rare minerals, but there are also things like
mosquito nets, practical things that you know, you just don't
(32:51):
think about that are part of this. I will also
say that I agree with the caller about the idea
that people are putting their money in and out of
the market. They're pulling there, They're trying to time these dips.
It's chaos. It's wrecking havoc with people's financial planning for
their retirement, which is another side effect here.
Speaker 2 (33:09):
I'm going to do a tale of two callers from Dallas, right, now,
and we'll start with John, who's in Dallas. John, how
are you feeling the tariffs or are you feeling them?
Speaker 18 (33:18):
Well, not feeling the immediately. But I had a manufacturing business,
plastic molding business, which I've sold, but I still worked
there as a consultant and we worked generally with older machines,
but those are gradually getting to the point where the
need replacement. And unfortunately all the machinery now comes from China,
(33:41):
so it would be hard for us to gear up
production at our little factory because the machinery already was
pretty much well out of reach to get new machinery,
and now with the tariffs, it's going to make it
very hard to increase any manufacturing at our little.
Speaker 1 (33:57):
Planned And does that have an effect on jobs?
Speaker 18 (34:02):
Well, yes, yes it'll. You know, you can't you can't
hire more people to do the work if you don't
have the machinery to make the parts. And it's fairly
labor intensive work, so it's not the best jobs. They're
not the highest paying and the most glamorous, but it
(34:22):
is work for entry level people and we're not going
to be able to supply that if we can't afford
the machinery to ramp up and make more parts.
Speaker 2 (34:34):
Okay, John, that's John in Dallas. Now let's go to
Eric in Dallas. Eric, what are you feeling when it
comes to the tariffs.
Speaker 19 (34:44):
All of our everything comes probably sourced from outside. I
don't know where all the products are made. I know
some products are made in the US, but they coming containers.
Speaker 1 (34:58):
What is it that you do, Eric, what's your business
from I'm.
Speaker 19 (35:01):
A hairstylist, so good luck when you go to get
your hair done, because it's gonna go up. But most
of the stylists in Texas are independent contractors. They work
sole proprietors, so they they don't have an umbrella over them.
(35:24):
They have to carry the cost all on their own backs.
And so a pair of shears that we got in
Japan that the cheapest pair that you can find would
probably be around one thousand dollars. China's gotten some substitutions
(35:49):
that were as good equality but not quite as good,
but for remarkable less. Now that's going to go out
the windows. So those tools that we rely on to
make our our money are going away. And I am disabled,
(36:16):
a fifty seven year old I have student loan dead
and I've been disabled for fifteen years, so I there's
no I'm under the poverty lot, right, I can't even
on top of that, I'm getting double punched.
Speaker 15 (36:38):
Yeah, it's ridiculous.
Speaker 2 (36:41):
Yeah, Eric, I really appreciate your I really appreciate your people.
Speaker 1 (36:45):
Yeah, I appreciate your call, Julie Neeman.
Speaker 2 (36:48):
Such interesting perspectives from two different people and two very
different businesses in Dallas.
Speaker 9 (36:56):
Yes, it is, but it's a situation where of course
small businesses are going to be the ones who suffer
because they don't have to squarewith all the stay in
business for a long period of time. You're talking. They
were talking earlier about not being able to get to
the things that they requested. Shipping is going to be
the biggest problem. They're redirecting all their shipping to taking
care to ship to other places. So there's a shortage
(37:18):
of shipping coming into the United States now, and the
costs have gone way up on shipping. So because of this,
we're going to have delays, late deliveries. And then let's
talk about Christmas here and toys. We're really going to
have a big problem with toys. But then again, Trump said,
you don't need thirty dollars.
Speaker 1 (37:35):
You only need three, right right?
Speaker 2 (37:38):
Let me But you know, Rona, when you hear that,
you think about the dolls and what that focus has
been on in the media on the tariffs. And we
hear these perspectives from a person in a barber shop,
from a person who's selling mosquito nets. This is so
much more far reaching than what has been talked about
(37:59):
so far.
Speaker 6 (38:00):
Well, I'm so glad to be a part of this conversation,
and here are these examples. It's so much richer and
more important in a lot of ways because it's showing
the depth and the breadth of what's going to happen.
And by the way, the point about ships completely true.
That actually happens to be the topic of my next
book that I just sold a couple of weeks ago.
It's about shipping. China has fifty five hundred ocean going vessels.
(38:20):
The US has one hundred and eighty five. So if
the Chinese want to put the squeeze on ships at
a global level, they absolutely can.
Speaker 2 (38:31):
Let's get to Debbie, who's in Manchester, Tennessee. Debbie, how
are you feeling the tariffs?
Speaker 20 (38:39):
Hi?
Speaker 14 (38:39):
Jamy, Well, I just come from a consumer perspective. You know,
I've noticed some price is going up, but I don't
know if those were directly because of tariffs right now.
But my main question that I'm calling about is if
the guests have any insight on insurance premiums. I've had
a conversation with someone today who said their homeown policy
(39:00):
went up to five thousand dollars for a year on
a home that's worth less than one hundred thousand dollars.
So I just didn't know if that was something to think.
Speaker 2 (39:14):
Yeah, I think I think I'm correct in saying that
that they are going up, but not because of the tariffs.
In this case, we can't blame that. Is that right, Rhano,
We can't blame the tariffs.
Speaker 6 (39:23):
It's true they are going up. They've gone up in
the last two years across the board in some I
don't know which date you're calling from. Tennessee, Tennessee, Well,
actually yes, they in the South Tennessee has got flooding
issues and that's that's one of the things that's raising
premiums there. Of course, Florida has become almost uninsurable. New
(39:44):
York we're having problems. I actually had to cancel our
policy and get a cut catastrophic policy because we couldn't
afford it anymore because we're in a flood zone in Brooklyn.
So this is a national problem.
Speaker 2 (39:55):
Yeah, let's go to autumn. Who's in Gainesville, Florida.
Speaker 1 (39:58):
Autumn. How are you feeling the tariff?
Speaker 14 (40:02):
Yeah?
Speaker 21 (40:02):
So I wanted to talk about how Trump's caraff policies
have impacted plant science research. These terrifts that didn't just
hit farmers, They have disrupted the supply chain for essential
materials and equipment used in agricultural research. Prices like lab instruments,
grow chambers, greenhouse materials, DNA sequencing, and even fertilizers has
(40:25):
increased due to the tariffs. A lot of people don't
think about that side as well, not just the farmers,
but the researchers are also getting impacted as well as collaboration.
International collaboration has been affected by it as well.
Speaker 2 (40:40):
And you're in Gainesville where the University of Florida is.
Have you been unable to do research because of this?
Speaker 21 (40:47):
I've heard of other researchers having complications, especially with other
researchers in China and Canada.
Speaker 1 (40:55):
Yeah, there's a lot of collaboration.
Speaker 21 (40:58):
There is, and It's really sad to see this happen
because any type of research that's happening with plant science
is essentially us figuring out ways how to feed the world.
Speaker 2 (41:10):
So well, Autumn, a very interesting Thank you for calling,
and I'm going to do Keenan, who's in Salt Lake City. Keenan,
how are you feeling the tariffs?
Speaker 22 (41:21):
So there's a cottage industry in information security cybersecurity conferences
of making tiny electronic statches. So this is basically a
circuit board maybe a few centimeters on a side, a
few LEDs, a resistor, maybe a micro controller, and of
course all of these things are searched from China. So
a bunch of these conferences normally have a big trading
(41:43):
culture of there will be probably one hundred different people
who have made their own badge, brought it to this culture,
and so far seventy percent of those people this year
or more, people who didn't serve it before the tariffs.
They're out of the industry right now. And this would
be these would sell for maybe five bucks, often had
an offs, and they're gone now.
Speaker 1 (42:05):
Wow. Yeah, I didn't even think about that. Julie Neiman.
Speaker 2 (42:08):
I imagine that throughout your career, You've been to a
lot of conferences. I mean, this is something I never
even thought of that comes in from China. But an
interesting point there.
Speaker 9 (42:18):
Well, so many electronic components and everything we're using come
in from China. I'm sitting here with my Apple computer,
you know, so you can't get much more straightforward on that.
Everything has Chinese components in it. And all they have
to do is stop shipping to us and let's see
what happens when we tried it on.
Speaker 16 (42:38):
Run.
Speaker 12 (42:39):
You know.
Speaker 2 (42:40):
One of the big issues here is that the US
has traditionally been the safe harbor when times get tough economically,
people flocked to the securities the US treasuries, the safety
of those We're seen as an as up and up
as a trading partner.
Speaker 1 (42:57):
Is that still the case, Well, it's.
Speaker 6 (43:01):
More the case in some ways than it should be.
And let me explain. I mean, countries that have the
kind of debt and deficit pictures that the US does
and the kind of political volatility that we have right
now would typically be seeing a much weaker economy, would
be seeing much higher borrowing costs, interest rates would be higher.
But because the US dollar is the currency of last
(43:23):
resort for the world. We get, you know, as they say,
the exorbitant burden, exorbitant privilege. The Trump administration is focused
more on the burden part. It does make American goods
more expensive, and that's one of the reasons that you
have this tariff paradigm. But there's another thing happening here,
which is the rest of the world. China in particular
wants to move away from the US dollar, and in fact,
(43:43):
the Chinese and Russians and a number of other central
banks around the world and the Arab world have been
stockpiling gold really since before COVID. They want to start
doing more trade in their own currencies or in digital
currencies digital R and B, or in gold. They want
to move away from the dollar, and I think eventually
(44:04):
that will that will weaken the dollar and potentially lower
US asset prices. It's a tough needle to thread right now.
The Trump administration is trying to have it both ways.
They want to do this reshoring, they want to bolster manufacturing,
but they also want the US dollar to be the
place of last resort. May not be able to have
it both ways.
Speaker 2 (44:26):
Levi is in Colorado Springs, Colorado, LEVI, how are the
tariffs affecting you?
Speaker 23 (44:32):
Yeah, I have a manufacturing company to make specialty hinges
for you know, be able to hinge like bookcases and
things of that nature, and there well, I was just
in the early stages of my company doing prototyping back
and forth with China and getting the parts. And I
don't disagree with the terriffs and principle. I more disagree
(44:55):
with how they are rolled out, how chaotic everything is,
and it's basic priced me out of the market. So
I've got twenty five thousand dollars into this, you know,
startup company that I'm basically just going to take a
loss on at this point because there's no way without
manufacturing them in China that I will be able to
make them at a price that people can afford.
Speaker 1 (45:15):
But you still believe in the tariffs and principle.
Speaker 23 (45:19):
I believe in some of the tariffs and principle. I
don't believe I'm putting one hundred and forty five percent
tariffs on right probably anybody you know. But I think
that if you were to do this in a slow way,
to try to balance the markets in a reasonable way
where you let people know what's going so they have
time to prepare and they have time to build up
manufacturing here in the United States. I see that it
(45:40):
could benefit us in some ways. Putting, you know, tariffs
on islands that don't have any human inhabitants and things
of that nature.
Speaker 15 (45:48):
I don't see.
Speaker 1 (45:49):
Anything from that.
Speaker 2 (45:50):
There was there was an island that had known Thank
you Levi, you know Taliver. I don't think we've ever
had so many calls in the Aero Bephore, but this
is just so much fun to go to these different
people and here, what's going on with the tariffs. I'm
going to do one more Phyllis in Western Arizona. Phyllis
quickly tell us how the tariffs are.
Speaker 20 (46:06):
Affecting you, Hi, Well, I'm definitely in the middle, and
I work for a small business jewelry custom jewelry operation.
The tariffs and combined with the rise in gold, I
should say, the ups and downs of gold have created
(46:28):
quite a conundrum within the industry, and not just for
our business, but for many of the other jewelers across
the country. And we talk to different people all the time.
Just for an example, this time last year, two gold
chains would run us maybe four hundred dollars and shipping.
(46:49):
Now it's seven hundred and fifty plus the sixty dollars
tariff plus tax plus shipping.
Speaker 24 (46:57):
Wow, and yeah and so. And because we advertise buying
gold at the daily rate, what we had was more
people coming in to sell their old.
Speaker 1 (47:09):
Gold wow merchant Yeah, yeah.
Speaker 24 (47:13):
Yea for almost three months now. It's really bad.
Speaker 1 (47:18):
That's amazing.
Speaker 2 (47:19):
It reminds me actually of what was happening when when
car price is really high and then people all of
a sudden were able to sell their used cars at
a much higher price because they wanted that.
Speaker 1 (47:29):
We are running out of time here.
Speaker 2 (47:30):
I just want to ask each of our guests, and
I'll start with you, Rana, just a quick prediction about
the economy for the rest of this year, based on
what you know about these tariffs.
Speaker 6 (47:40):
Well, I'm going to be watching the summer very carefully.
It's going to We're that's going to be the tell.
Are we going to slip into recession? Is the inflationary
pressure going to be too much to bear? I would
not be surprised if we saw a slow down by fall.
Speaker 2 (47:53):
Yeah, Rana, thank you very much. And Julie, you know,
let me ask you for your prediction thirty seconds. What
do you think is going to happen in the economy
the rest of this year.
Speaker 9 (48:03):
Well, because the inflation we see is due to tariffs,
we're not going to be seeing any cut in interest
rates for the time being. That will be holding up
even though underlying inflation is going down. We're also going
to be seeing just from a chaos standpoint, no activity
on anybody's part. You're not going to see companies expanding.
They're going to be terminating a lot of plans for expansion.
(48:26):
I see of recession coming.
Speaker 7 (48:28):
Wow.
Speaker 2 (48:29):
That is Financial analyst Julie Neeman, and we've been speaking
also with Financial Times Business Comments and Associate editor Rona Farujar.
Speaker 1 (48:35):
Thanks so much to both of our.
Speaker 2 (48:36):
Guests, and don't Forget the Middle is available as a
podcast in partnership with iHeart Podcasts on the iHeart Apple
wherever you listen to podcasts. Coming to your feet in
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Extra One Thing Trump Did. We're going to be asking
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next week we'll be right back here asking if not DEI,
then what can be done to ensure everyone has equal opportunity.
Speaker 3 (49:00):
Excited for that one. As always, you can call in
at eight four four four Middle. That's eight four four
four six four three three five three, or you can
reach out at Listen to the Middle dot com, where
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Speaker 2 (49:14):
The Middle is brought to you by Longduck Media, distributed
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Speaker 1 (49:24):
I'm Jeremy Hobson. I will talk to you next week.
Welcome to the Middle.
Speaker 2 (00:06):
I'm Jeremy Hobson, along with our house DJ Tolliver and Taliver.
I'm gonna start with a confession this hour, which is
that until recently I always misspelled the word tariff. I
thought it was two rs and one F. But now
that we have to talk about it all the time,
I know that it is actually tariff.
Speaker 3 (00:23):
Wait, it's not a pH.
Speaker 1 (00:24):
At the end, you win if you wish.
Speaker 2 (00:27):
So this hour, we want to take advantage of our
amazing middle audience and find out how the tariffs are
being felt so far across the country. And it might
be a little hard to tell because prices may not
have trickled down to the consumer yet. In fact, Walmart
today said people will start seeing increases later this month.
But also the Trump administration has gone after companies like
(00:48):
Amazon that wanted to tell consumers how much the tariffs
were impacting prices. So we don't know exactly. But one
thing I want to say to listeners is are you
a business owner who's making business decisions because of the
tariffs that you're already seeing, or are you not a
business owner but you're being more cautious about what you're
buying or maybe you don't want to quit that job
(01:08):
that you hate because you have some uncertainty about the economy,
or maybe you work in manufacturing and you're excited about
the tariffs, or maybe you're a farmer. I definitely want
to hear from a farmer this hour. In all those cases,
you can call us at eight four four four middle.
That's eight four four four six four three three five three.
So Tolliver, let's just set the table, first of all,
(01:30):
with what has happened. Help me out here.
Speaker 4 (01:33):
February first, ten percent tariffs on everything from China, twenty
five percent on Canada and Mexico, and February third, thirty
day paws in Canada and Mexico. March fourth, okay, so
make that twenty percent now on goodsome China, and March
sixth another thirty day paws on Canada and Mexico. April second,
(01:54):
you know, it's Liberation Day, one hundred and forty five
percent tariffs on China and increase tariffs most other countries.
And also April second, ninety day pause on the other
countries after the bond market freaks out.
Speaker 1 (02:07):
And finally May twelfth, Tulliver, Okay.
Speaker 3 (02:09):
Make that thirty percent, not one hundred and forty five
percent on most goods from China for ninety days. And listen,
the day's not over yet.
Speaker 1 (02:17):
Right right exactly today? Well, thank you Tulliver for that.
Speaker 2 (02:20):
And here's President Trump earlier this week talking about that
ninety day trade truce with China.
Speaker 5 (02:25):
In addition, yesterday we achieved a total reset with China
after productive talks in Geneva. Both sides now agree to
reduce the tariffs imposed after April second to ten percent
for ninety days as negotiators continue in the largest structural issues.
And it doesn't include tariffs on cars, steel, aluminum, things
(02:50):
such as that, or tariffs that may be imposed on
pharmaceuticals because we want to bring the pharmaceutical businesses back.
Speaker 2 (02:58):
So maybe watch this space on that. But given all that,
how are the tariffs affecting you? Tolliver the phone number again, please?
Speaker 3 (03:04):
Yeah, you can call us at eight four four four
Middle that's eight four four four sixty four three three
five three, or you can write to us at listen
to the Middle dot com. I'm checking all the emails,
so send them in. You can also comment on our
live stream on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (03:16):
Well joining me now, Rona Faruja, Associate editor and business
columnists at The Financial Times. Rana, welcome to the.
Speaker 6 (03:22):
Middle Hey, thanks for having me.
Speaker 2 (03:24):
So before we get to the phones with all that
back and forth Rona that we just re enacted, Are
we in a different economy now than we were back
in January? Is their substantial change at the end of
the day.
Speaker 7 (03:39):
Yeah.
Speaker 6 (03:39):
Absolutely. You know, I was actually talking to a Princeton
historian today and he was walking me through some of
the biggest historical changes in the economy in the last
one hundred years, and he put this one right up
right up there. You know, it's it's there with World
War One, it's there with the Great Depression. I mean,
this is a rebalancing. I'm not saying that we've seen
(04:02):
those kinds of results yet, but in terms of what
Trump is trying to do, which is fundamentally overturn the
Brettonwoods trading system and the Washington Consensus that was the
idea that America was kind of setting the rules of
the road. Free trade was one of them. You know,
(04:24):
that's gone by the wayside. So ten percent seems to
be the new normal. We're going to see how that's
going to trickle out and it's going to happen at
different rates in different industries and different parts of the country.
But I don't think anybody could say that this isn't
a pretty massive shift.
Speaker 2 (04:42):
Are you seeing anything in the data yet? Are you
seeing anything that shows you that consumers are feeling the
tariffs already or even uncertainty because of the tariffs?
Speaker 6 (04:54):
Oh, yeah, for sure you are. I mean, consumer confidence
is at multi year lows. It hasn't been this low
in quite some time. You have seen some price increases,
I think, you know, go go look for a car
these days, even a used car, and you know you'll
see you'll see the prices have absolutely gone up. We've
(05:14):
seen one off items, certain kinds of agricultural items. Walmart
has already started raising prices, for example, on things like
electronics and toys where you have a lot of components
coming from China. Other products. It's going to take a
while to filter through. But one of the things that's
also happening that's quite fascinating to me is companies are
(05:36):
waking up and as they, you know, kind of accept
the reality of this, they're beginning to realize, oh gosh,
we actually need that critical mineral from China that we
can't access anymore, or that might be multiple times more expensive.
You know, that component part that we thought was not
a big deal is suddenly a big deal. Pharmaceuticals, I
(05:57):
think you're going to start hearing about, particularly if we
don't get a deal with India, because a lot of
basic pharmaceuticals, generic pharmaceuticals, and inputs come from India. So
imagine if we had, say another big unusual viral outbreak
right now, and you needed certain kinds of medicine, and
then suddenly the American public realizes, oh, wait a minute,
we don't we can't get those with you know, and
(06:19):
it's you know, you're back in COVID all over again.
So that's the kind of thing that I think is
probably going to be rolling down the pike.
Speaker 2 (06:25):
So square that with the stock market, which seems to
have rebounded mostly from what happened, you know, right after
Trump announced Liberation Day and there was a huge collapse
in the stock market, and it's kind of come back
since then. Why are they not so concerned on Wall Street?
Speaker 6 (06:40):
Well a few reasons. You know, let's speak, the stock
market is not the best measure of the smart money.
The smart money looks at the bond market, and the
bond market is still saying blinking red. I mean bond
deals have gone down a little bit, which means investors
are kind of Okay, let's see what happens here. We're
not really really upset, but we're but stock prices are up.
(07:01):
That's because retail investors, who frankly aren't looking maybe as
deeply as they should be at how permanent these changes
are likely to be, are saying, oh, we got to
deal with China, even though let's be clear, this isn't
a deal. This is a ninety day pause, after which
there could be more volatile right afterwards, there could be
higher rates. So the market goes up. When if we
(07:24):
hear something bad about tarots tomorrow, you know the market's
going to go down. I would not take that as
any indication that things have fundamentally stabilized. In fact, I
personally think we're going to be in probably for a
couple of years of this, if not more.
Speaker 2 (07:40):
Wow, that's really interesting. Let me bring in our other
guest for the hour, Julie Meeman, who's a veteran financial
analyst joining us from Saint Louis. Julie, are you seeing
any data right now, or you seeing consumers behaving differently
because of the tariffs that exist, even if they're down
from what they were.
Speaker 8 (08:01):
Well, it's more of.
Speaker 9 (08:01):
Those psychological things. And yes, everybody's already changing. They've already
started doing the first key thing, and that's basically starting
to pull back and substitute. So they're giving up some
of their favorite brands and starting the substitute. They're watching
to see what's going to happen to it. But we've
already seen the prices going up here. I don't know
who's doing the surveying. The prices have been going up
(08:22):
for several months now, not dramatically. It's kind of like
the slow boiling of water and you don't know you're
getting cooked. But that's exactly what's going on with this now.
Slowly but surely, the prices are all going up. So
we are seeing a lot of people also starting to
stop pile the things that they get that have our imports.
So everybody's alert to this and they're doing something about it.
Speaker 2 (08:45):
All right, Let's get to caller Pam, who's calling from
Highland Park, Illinois.
Speaker 1 (08:50):
Pam, welcome to the middle. Are you feeling the tariffs.
Speaker 10 (08:54):
Yeah, absolutely, Hi there, how are you going?
Speaker 1 (08:56):
Great?
Speaker 11 (08:57):
Oh good?
Speaker 10 (08:59):
My husband and I own a small bicycle shop in Winnetka, Illinois,
so just close to where we live, and there is
not one thing in our stores that won't be affected
or hasn't been affected by the tarrat. We are receiving
phone calls and emails every day for hours.
Speaker 1 (09:22):
Pam, you's still there.
Speaker 3 (09:26):
Oh I was so invested.
Speaker 2 (09:27):
I really I want to hear Yeah, yeah, well totally.
But but you know, Rona, that's that's that's interesting. I
wonder if we're going to hear a lot of that
this hour.
Speaker 6 (09:37):
Well, I hope so. And frankly, I love that this
is a woman with a small business who's speaking out.
I mean, you mentioned earlier how a number of companies,
Amazon being one of them, have been squashed by the
President when they try to say, hey, this is this
is a this is a thing where this is going
to affect people. Surely he won't be able to get
(09:57):
to every small and mid sized business to do this,
and I think it's very brave for people to start
talking about this.
Speaker 1 (10:03):
It is real. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (10:05):
By the way, you said, Ronna that you believe that
ten percent is here to stay. That that's going to
be the new normal for even years from now.
Speaker 6 (10:14):
Yes, if you look historically at tariffs, once they go up,
it takes decades for them to go down, and I
think that that will be the case this time around,
in part because and we have certainly not seen the
full blow of this. The rest of the world is
pissed at US. I mean they are really upset and
(10:35):
that you know, they are figuring out what their next
moves are. And let me tell you, I bet we're
not done with what China may do in terms of
retribution counteractions. Similarly, Europe is circling the wagons and realizing, Okay,
the US is not going to defend us anymore. We're
gonna need to defend ourselves. We're gonna we're gonna start
(10:57):
maybe unifying more as a as a trading block our
and as an economic block. They're they're in talks with
countries like Canada that have been snubbed by the President
and so you know, all that may end up having
an impact that we'll feel down the line as well.
Speaker 1 (11:13):
Well.
Speaker 2 (11:13):
Stand by, Tolliver, I have very good news for you,
which is Pam is back and we're going to go
to her right after the break, so we can hear
exactly what's going on there in Highland Park. But I
said I can spell tariff. Now that's in portant because
we just did a show a few weeks ago with
former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers on this topic.
Speaker 3 (11:30):
Yeah, and you asked them what advice you'd give to
Trump if he were working in the White House right now,
and on the issue of tariffs. Here's what he said.
Speaker 7 (11:36):
You need to end this. You need to have there
be a stable, non protectionist regime that's not pushing American
prices way up, it's not hurting the competitiveness of businesses
who can't get inputs. And you need to show people
(11:58):
that you recognize have learned the lessons of the very
painful experience of the last two weeks.
Speaker 1 (12:05):
Maybe Trump was listening to the Middle last week, Tolliver,
I'm pretty sure it was possible.
Speaker 7 (12:10):
Favorite show.
Speaker 1 (12:11):
We'll be right back with more of the Middle. This
is the Middle. I'm Jeremy Hobson.
Speaker 2 (12:17):
If you're just tuning in the Middle as a national
call in show, we're focused on elevating voices from the
middle geographically, politically and philosophically or maybe you just want
to meet in the Middle. This hour, we're asking you
how the tariffs are affecting you. Tolliver, what is the
number to call in It's.
Speaker 3 (12:30):
Eight four four four Middle. That's eight four four four
six four three three five three. You can also write
to us to listen to the Middle dot com. I'm
checking all your emails or on social media checking all that.
So reach out.
Speaker 2 (12:40):
And I'm joined by Financial Times business columnists and associate
editor Rona Farujar and financial analyst Julie Nieman. And let's
go back to Pam in Highland Park, Illinois. Pam, Sorry
we lost you there for a second, but you were
about to say that you're seeing the tariff's impact just
about everything in your store.
Speaker 12 (12:57):
Yeah.
Speaker 10 (12:57):
Absolutely. I think I was saying that we're getting emails
and calls every day from our suppliers talking about what
the potential impacts are going to be. They are registering
the uncertainty. We've actually had one supplier already closed their doors,
so you know, we're seeing this day to day and
(13:18):
we have you know, when we try to talk with
our customers about what it's going to be like, because
they ask and the short answer is we don't really know.
We have one supplier that has already decided not to
import the smallest children's bikes because they don't think that
they can justify the cost. And it is a primary
(13:39):
large bicycle manufacturer. They are the largest bicycle manufacturer in
the world, and they will not be importing twelve and
sixteen inch children's bikes anymore.
Speaker 2 (13:49):
So would you say, then, Pam, that really what you're
seeing is a supply issue. It's hard to get the things.
What about the prices being passed down to the consumers?
Speaker 10 (13:59):
That is also going to happen. So what we're hearing
now from our suppliers is, yes, some things are going
to be harder to get because they have to make
strategic decisions about what they think they can get through
and what is going to provide the best opportunity for
sale on a day to day basis. But all of
those suppliers are also saying, we're going to have to
(14:22):
pass these costs along to the to our buyers and
our consumers. So those costs are going to pass on
to us, and then we have to pass them on
to the consumer as well.
Speaker 2 (14:34):
And do you register your your unhappiness with this with
your representatives. Are you Are you letting people in Washington
know how you feel about these tariffs.
Speaker 12 (14:43):
Absolutely.
Speaker 10 (14:45):
As a matter of fact, we have a member of
Congress who's one of our customers, so we talk regularly. Yeah,
and he is equally he is equally frustrated. You know,
there's there's only so much that can and be done.
A lot of this has to do, though, with the
uncertainty and the fact that we aren't really certain at
(15:06):
this point if the tariffs are actually a strategic, long
term issue or if they are in fact simply.
Speaker 9 (15:16):
A whipsaw of chaos.
Speaker 1 (15:18):
Yeah.
Speaker 10 (15:18):
And the big differential for everybody in that is that
if they are a long term strategic issue, first of all,
it's way to too broadcasts.
Speaker 13 (15:29):
There are good.
Speaker 10 (15:29):
Ways to make strategic decisions about tariffs. This is not it, Yeah, but.
Speaker 2 (15:35):
Long we've got it there. Let me let me go
to our guest. Now, I really appreciate your call, but
on the issue of the ultimate.
Speaker 1 (15:42):
Goal here, Rona Faruhar.
Speaker 2 (15:46):
You know, we've heard that the Trump administration is doing
this because they want to stop fentanyl from coming into
the country. Although then you would wonder why is the
tariff the same, Why was it originally the same on
Canada as on Mexico, that this is about bringing manufacturing
jobs back to the United States. But if that's the case,
why drop the Tariffact down to a lower level after
some trouble in the bond market?
Speaker 1 (16:06):
Do you see an overall goal here?
Speaker 6 (16:09):
So I've got a couple answers to that. Let me
let me if I can just do as a historical
speed round, because I think it would help Trump one
comes in and Trump one. You know, Trump got in politically,
and I'm from the middle. I'm from Indiana. My my
county went from you know, Clinton County seventy five percent Trump.
(16:29):
He talked the right talk about manufacturing jobs and about
workers in places that have been hollowed out there. The
China shock is real. A lot of communities I grew
up in one have, you know, have have really been
hit hard. When he came into office. You then saw
there Bob Leithheiser, the USTR at the time, who I
(16:51):
really have a lot of respect for, had put very
surgical tariffs on China on particular kinds of goods that
I think was a good idea because it is true
that the Chinese have very mercantilist practices and and a
lot of countries would agree with this. Biden then comes
in and says, all right, that's the away game, but
(17:13):
we need a home game too, and we have to
like build you know, build a chips industry, build a
clean energy industry, and support businesses here. Now you've got
Trump too, and there is a kind of a grand
plan that's been articulated by Steve Miran, who's the head
of the Council of Economic Advisors, to say, look, we've
got to rebalance the global economy as a whole. The
US dollar is making goods too expensive coming out of
(17:37):
the US into other countries. It means that we lose
manufacturing jobs. I think there's something to that, but but
you have to do you have to thread that needle carefully.
You have to work with allies, which is what Biden
was trying to do, you know, cutting new deals with Europeans,
reaching out to the Canadians. Trump comes in and puts
tariffs on adversaries and allies alike, and people don't know
(18:00):
what to think and we've lost trust. So I'm concerned
about how that's going to play out.
Speaker 2 (18:07):
Yeah, let's go to Kenneth, who's in Asheville, North Carolina.
Speaker 1 (18:10):
Kenneth, Welcome to the middle.
Speaker 13 (18:11):
Go ahead, Yeah, hello, Yeah, I'm in Ashville, North Carolina,
and where my family and I are still displaced from Helene.
Went through the whole FEMA experience, and then I lost
my job in December. Ironically, I worked for a nonprofit
trying to allocate emergency funds, and so when the tariffs
(18:36):
happened and all of them were announced, we were still
kind of an emergency mode. You know. We just bought
our generator after the storm and all this stuff, so
we were ready to like go out and buy a
bunch of stuff we thought the prices would shoot up on.
And then all the tariffs got taken out or you know,
shifted and moved around, and I just felt like it
was a bait and switch, and I felt like, oh,
(18:57):
you know, I feel like they're trying to scare me
into buying a bunch of stuff that, yeah, the prices
probably will go up on. But I don't avoid not
having gotten much from FEMA, you know, stilling a disaster zone.
As far as I'm concerned, Am I really going to
pour my money into this stuff? Even if I know
the prices are going to go up because there's not
Really it's not a great time to go on credit.
Speaker 2 (19:17):
You know, right, Yeah, Kenneth, I really appreciate your call
and best of luck with that, Julie Nieman. That is
so interesting to hear just an individual who says I'm
going to go out and buy things now because they
might go up in price and then gets angry when
they don't because the tariffs get taken away.
Speaker 9 (19:36):
Well, he and everybody is the victim of total chaos
in that three range surface in Washington, DC. Nobody knows
how things work or what the implications are the fallout is,
and when you start firing the people who know how
things work, then the entire agency goes into chaos. So
there's not one single agency that can give guidance. You
(19:56):
don't have any kind of plan or a forecast at
this point, CEO, those are giving up on it. It's
just total chaos. The market, on the other hand, is
paying no attention to that. They're looking for just the
little signals here and there. It's a trading market. Blow
it off, pay no attention to stock market. It is
wrecking total chaos with the economy. Though, will it be
a recession. That's really hard to see at this point.
(20:18):
But if it goes on much longer, yes there will be.
Speaker 1 (20:21):
Julie, you're in Saint Louis.
Speaker 2 (20:22):
You don't have to drive very far to find farmers
who make a lot of money selling things like soybeans
to China. China put one hundred and twenty five percent
tariff on imports from the US in response to the
US tariffs on Chinese goods, which they have since reduced.
But are you hearing from farmers or what are you
supposed to do if you're a farmer right now?
Speaker 9 (20:42):
Well, they've gotten the biggest insurance from Trump. That's he's
going to get money out to them to compensate them
for the big tariff that's coming in. Now. That isn't
government money, that's money the taxpayers are providing. So we're
going to be providing money on a tariff that never
should have been put on. For one thing. You don't
put tariffs on food. That is the most ridiculous thing
(21:02):
in the world. You do it in strategic equipment, certain
key things in trade, not on food. And that's where
a lot of this is going and what's going to
cause even more problems here. But if the farmers do
get those nice the paychecks to cushion it, it's coming
directly from the taxpayers, and we're paying for it, So
we're continuing to pay for their screw ups.
Speaker 1 (21:23):
Tolliver, I know some comments are coming in online.
Speaker 3 (21:25):
Yeah, we actually just got one. A second new I love.
This is Larissa. She says, I work in pharmacy. I
wonder how many people understand that medicines are largely imported.
Pharmaceuticals are supposedly exempt from tariffs. But I'm holding my breath,
as are so many people, as so many people are
saying it's the uncertainties that are making me lose sleep.
There's some other ones, but I got to tell you
(21:46):
they're pretty vitriolic.
Speaker 9 (21:49):
For fun.
Speaker 2 (21:51):
All right, if you'd all right, well, we'll keep it
g rated for now. Let's go to Scott, who's in Houston, Texas. Hi, Scott,
go ahead with your thoughts about the tariffs. Are you
being affected by them?
Speaker 14 (22:04):
Yeah?
Speaker 15 (22:04):
Hi, everybody, you know, it's it's I feel kind of
like we're all just sitting here waiting, you know. It's
it's it's one day it's up, one day it's down.
Whether it's the market, whether that's yeah, we're gonna have
terair assess or no, we're not. But I know for us,
you know, we're a family business. We're super lucky to
have had the following we've had in Houston for twenty
five years. But I mean we're still feeling the effects
(22:27):
of what COVID brought, honestly, and you know, prices of
goods from twenty twenty to where we are now. You
pick any product that we use dairy proteins, which, by
the way, if you eat Lamb and pretty much any
restaurant in the United States or really anywhere in the
world that's coming from New Zealand or Australia. So there
(22:48):
you go, right there. And I mean that's that's gone
up in upwards of fifty percent just for you know,
Lamb stops right so you know.
Speaker 1 (22:58):
It's and if you pass those costs onto consum.
Speaker 15 (23:02):
So that's an interesting point I wanted to bring up. No,
I mean, we we have now our menu prices since
twenty twenty, we have jumped fifteen percent, and the biggest
jump came about twenty two or twenty three, where we're
just kind of sitting around looking like Okay, we've opened
back up, but I can't get anything. Cost of goods
(23:22):
are gone up. Those like everybody's trying to get the
same container to pack food to go because that was
still a majority of our business at the time. Hurricanes
come through and rip out like factories in Lake Charles
and Louisiana, and suddenly like plastics or other you know,
products that would go for making these containers aren't even available.
Forget the fact that we're in a worldwide pandemic or
(23:43):
trying to come out of it at a time. So
there's just so much going on, and that's that's it's
just stacking on. It's just one thing after the other,
you know. Yeah, and so yeah, I mean we yep,
go ahead.
Speaker 2 (23:58):
Well, no, that's it's a great And I want to
ask ronof Rujer about that. When you hear Scott talk
about prices going up for him and just coming out
of the pandemic, but then not passing some onto the consumers,
is that surprising?
Speaker 1 (24:11):
Not really.
Speaker 6 (24:12):
I mean, I think businesses of all sizes have been
trying to eat as much as they can frankly of
this because you know, they want to keep their customers happy.
They don't want to lose business. They don't want to
see people buttoning up their walllle as. I was concerned though,
just recently to hear the CEO of Walmart say, you
know what, We're just going to have to pass these
(24:34):
costs on. They're too big, they're too broad, and when
Walmart can't eat costs, you know that others are going
to have a hard time eventually.
Speaker 2 (24:43):
Well, I mean, I guess on the other hand, Walmart
is so big that they may in many playss not
have any real competitors except for maybe Amazon, so they
don't have to think about things like a restaurant would,
where you know, they might have another restaurant down the
street that people say, oh, this one's getting too expensive,
I'll go to that one instead. Walmart is in a
sort of a category of.
Speaker 6 (25:00):
Its own, well one hundred percent. But you're kind of
proving my point that, you know, if they feel under
pressure about this, that those that are, you know, in
smaller and mid sized businesses, which, by the way, every
economist I know says, sme, small mid sized businesses, family businesses,
local shops, they're going to be hit much harder by this.
And this was also the case in COVID. I will say,
(25:22):
when COVID hit, you saw the biggest retailers, Amazon, Target, Walmart.
Those folks were able to use their size and scale
to you know, get faster container cargo shipping. They were
able to cut deals. It's much much harder when you
don't have that kind of size and scale to cope
(25:44):
in an environment like this.
Speaker 2 (25:46):
Let's go to Margaret, who's in Wilmington, Delaware. Hi, Margaret,
how are you feeling the tariffs? I?
Speaker 9 (25:52):
Hi, hello to everyone.
Speaker 12 (25:55):
A couple of observations. I have been trying to get
an electric blanket twin size for several months, and I
was following Amazon, and when tariffs were announced, you know,
they're just gone. They I guess everyone went and bought
because they're thinking, well, you know, come next winter, they're
(26:17):
going to be twice as much. So I haven't been
able to get any of the ones that I was
looking for. Walmart did have some on their website, but
they're all undesirable colors again that I was looking for. Okay,
if I want dark gray or some other weird color, yes,
(26:37):
walmert das undisibles. But what I was looking for on Amazon,
that was the best price it's gone. I ended up
buying a different size because I'd rather have one than
not none at all.
Speaker 1 (26:51):
Right, yeah, you know.
Speaker 6 (26:52):
You're seeing that. If I could just jump in, because
you're seeing this in so many categories. You know, you're
seeing it in clothing, you're seeing it in cars, and
it's actually part this is a classic inflationary spiral because
people see it is going to be more expensive, most
likely next year, and so you you you get ahead
of it, you you hoard that causes shortages, which then
(27:14):
cause inflation.
Speaker 8 (27:16):
Hmm, Margaret, thank you very I'm worry about that, but
I also have, like you know, we open an occasional
good bottle of champagne when it's somebody's birthday, and that's
going to go up really much.
Speaker 12 (27:29):
Absolutely, so we are concerned, you know.
Speaker 15 (27:32):
Yeah, Yeah, it's very difficult.
Speaker 2 (27:35):
It's just I mean, I don't want I don't want
to offend any of our listeners. Maybe in the wine
making industry in California, but it's just not the same.
I once did a story about champagne versus prosecco versus
sparkling wine, and.
Speaker 1 (27:46):
It's just not the same.
Speaker 7 (27:47):
Uh.
Speaker 2 (27:48):
There's a reason you pay so much for the real thing.
Let's go, let's get another collar in before the break.
Speaker 1 (27:55):
Here.
Speaker 2 (27:55):
Pam is in Malvern, Pennsylvania. Pam, how are you feeling
the tariffs?
Speaker 16 (28:01):
I'm not yet, But I was doing some research for
myself today on the internet and I wondered where the
tariffs that are collected go. Where does that money go?
And what I read was that it goes to the
United States Treasury, and I believe I also read that
at that point the administration can do whatever it pleases
(28:22):
with the money.
Speaker 2 (28:24):
So interesting, that's that's it, you know, Yeah, because Pam,
they we heard that. I think last month the Trump
administration says they brought in sixteen billion dollars from the
tariff from the customs collections because of the tariffs, Julie,
do you know anything about about the about the money
that comes in or do you think that that's a
benefit of the tariffs?
Speaker 9 (28:46):
Oh, that's a direct cause. This is why they want it,
because that money is going to pay for renewal of
all the height of the tech build that's going through
that benefits the top one percent, and so that will
be content. That's where the big benefits are. So the
tariffs are going to pay for us to continue on
what the tax bill that is currently being pushed to Congress,
(29:09):
which only benefits top income earners.
Speaker 2 (29:12):
RNA is right, RNA is there. Does the administration just
they can they can they do whatever they want with
that money.
Speaker 6 (29:18):
Pretty much, pretty much, And that's correct that it is
part of what they're hoping is going to offset this
tax bill, which you know, the markets are not buying it.
People are very, very worried about the debt and deficit
levels that the tax bill is going to cause.
Speaker 2 (29:32):
Yeah, well, Tolliver, We've been hearing from ordinary Americans this hour.
But Trump's trade war has illicited reactions from some of
the most important people in business and politics.
Speaker 3 (29:42):
As an understatement, man, here's Chinese President Sheijen Ping, Massachusetts
Massachusetts steel manufacturer Stephen Capone, JP, Morgan Chase CEO, Jamie Diamond,
and Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett.
Speaker 1 (29:55):
Trade should not be a weapon. It's a big mistake
in my view.
Speaker 7 (30:00):
The tariff sound stiff. It's a tall task, but we
need to do something to lower cost for our companies,
for our workers.
Speaker 16 (30:07):
I thought it was too large, too big, and too resumes.
Speaker 1 (30:09):
Started, but it's okay, to save it's unfair. We want
to fix it.
Speaker 17 (30:13):
And China's President Xi Jinping is now responding to President
Trump for the first time Fine Night, saying that China
does not fear economic suppression, but adding there are no
winners in a tariff war.
Speaker 2 (30:26):
NBC's Peter Alexander they're playing the role of Shijinping Tolliver.
Speaker 1 (30:31):
He did a good job.
Speaker 3 (30:32):
He did a good job, better than I would.
Speaker 1 (30:34):
Yeah, we'll be back with more of your amazing calls
on the Middle. This is the Middle.
Speaker 2 (30:39):
I'm Jeremy Hobson, and this hour we're asking you how
the tariffs are affecting you. You can call us at
eight four four four Middle. That's eight four four four
six four three three five three. You can reach out
it listen to the Middle dot com. My guests are
financial analyst Julie Neeman and Financial Times business columnists and
associate editor Rona Farujar. Such great calls. Let's get back
to the phones. Mike is in Lake Forest, Illinois. Hi, Mike,
(31:00):
how are the tariffs affecting you?
Speaker 11 (31:03):
Well, they're destroying my business. I'm kind of a solo entrepreneur.
I import mosquito net tents, for summer camps, and I
take my orders and negotiate pricing in December, reduce the
product in the spring, and it all sells during the summer.
So if I don't get in by Junior May, I
don't sell anything. And the terraffs were zero on my
product originally, and then when I had to pay for
(31:26):
the shipping, it's went to one. And it's funny now
I kind of wish.
Speaker 15 (31:30):
I was paying only eighty percent.
Speaker 2 (31:33):
Yeah, by comparison, what are you going to do? Are
you going to be able to stay in business?
Speaker 16 (31:39):
I was going to eat.
Speaker 11 (31:40):
I have to eat the colletscuse I can't change the
price with my buyers. And I do sell some on Amazon,
but I'm going to wait and see what my competitors
do before I raise prices.
Speaker 2 (31:49):
Mike, what do you make of the fact that the
stock market seems to have rebounded from where it was?
Do you think that they're just crazy on Wall Street?
Speaker 11 (31:58):
I don't think the stock market it's very good indicator
what's going on. People are just reacting day to day
to get their money out and putting back in, and
getting it back out and putting back in because nobody
else to put it.
Speaker 2 (32:09):
Yeah, Mike, thank you very much for that call. Uh
ron A, what do you what do you think of that?
Another business owner who is having to eat the costs
of these tariffs and really scared about the future.
Speaker 6 (32:21):
Well, I think two things. I mean, for starters, what
an interesting product mosquito nets. Nobody thought that was going
to get cut off, you know, cut off or caught
up in.
Speaker 7 (32:30):
This who ha.
Speaker 6 (32:31):
And I'm hearing from people all the time with these
kinds of problems. Just you know, I really think this
pharmaceutical input issue is going to become very important. A
lot of what goes in antibiotics comes from from India.
There are rare minerals, but there are also things like
mosquito nets, practical things that you know, you just don't
(32:51):
think about that are part of this. I will also
say that I agree with the caller about the idea
that people are putting their money in and out of
the market. They're pulling there, They're trying to time these dips.
It's chaos. It's wrecking havoc with people's financial planning for
their retirement, which is another side effect here.
Speaker 2 (33:09):
I'm going to do a tale of two callers from Dallas, right, now,
and we'll start with John, who's in Dallas. John, how
are you feeling the tariffs or are you feeling them?
Speaker 18 (33:18):
Well, not feeling the immediately. But I had a manufacturing business,
plastic molding business, which I've sold, but I still worked
there as a consultant and we worked generally with older machines,
but those are gradually getting to the point where the
need replacement. And unfortunately all the machinery now comes from China,
(33:41):
so it would be hard for us to gear up
production at our little factory because the machinery already was
pretty much well out of reach to get new machinery,
and now with the tariffs, it's going to make it
very hard to increase any manufacturing at our little.
Speaker 1 (33:57):
Planned And does that have an effect on jobs?
Speaker 18 (34:02):
Well, yes, yes it'll. You know, you can't you can't
hire more people to do the work if you don't
have the machinery to make the parts. And it's fairly
labor intensive work, so it's not the best jobs. They're
not the highest paying and the most glamorous, but it
(34:22):
is work for entry level people and we're not going
to be able to supply that if we can't afford
the machinery to ramp up and make more parts.
Speaker 2 (34:34):
Okay, John, that's John in Dallas. Now let's go to
Eric in Dallas. Eric, what are you feeling when it
comes to the tariffs.
Speaker 19 (34:44):
All of our everything comes probably sourced from outside. I
don't know where all the products are made. I know
some products are made in the US, but they coming containers.
Speaker 1 (34:58):
What is it that you do, Eric, what's your business
from I'm.
Speaker 19 (35:01):
A hairstylist, so good luck when you go to get
your hair done, because it's gonna go up. But most
of the stylists in Texas are independent contractors. They work
sole proprietors, so they they don't have an umbrella over them.
(35:24):
They have to carry the cost all on their own backs.
And so a pair of shears that we got in
Japan that the cheapest pair that you can find would
probably be around one thousand dollars. China's gotten some substitutions
(35:49):
that were as good equality but not quite as good,
but for remarkable less. Now that's going to go out
the windows. So those tools that we rely on to
make our our money are going away. And I am disabled,
(36:16):
a fifty seven year old I have student loan dead
and I've been disabled for fifteen years, so I there's
no I'm under the poverty lot, right, I can't even
on top of that, I'm getting double punched.
Speaker 15 (36:38):
Yeah, it's ridiculous.
Speaker 2 (36:41):
Yeah, Eric, I really appreciate your I really appreciate your people.
Speaker 1 (36:45):
Yeah, I appreciate your call, Julie Neeman.
Speaker 2 (36:48):
Such interesting perspectives from two different people and two very
different businesses in Dallas.
Speaker 9 (36:56):
Yes, it is, but it's a situation where of course
small businesses are going to be the ones who suffer
because they don't have to squarewith all the stay in
business for a long period of time. You're talking. They
were talking earlier about not being able to get to
the things that they requested. Shipping is going to be
the biggest problem. They're redirecting all their shipping to taking
care to ship to other places. So there's a shortage
(37:18):
of shipping coming into the United States now, and the
costs have gone way up on shipping. So because of this,
we're going to have delays, late deliveries. And then let's
talk about Christmas here and toys. We're really going to
have a big problem with toys. But then again, Trump said,
you don't need thirty dollars.
Speaker 1 (37:35):
You only need three, right right?
Speaker 2 (37:38):
Let me But you know, Rona, when you hear that,
you think about the dolls and what that focus has
been on in the media on the tariffs. And we
hear these perspectives from a person in a barber shop,
from a person who's selling mosquito nets. This is so
much more far reaching than what has been talked about
(37:59):
so far.
Speaker 6 (38:00):
Well, I'm so glad to be a part of this conversation,
and here are these examples. It's so much richer and
more important in a lot of ways because it's showing
the depth and the breadth of what's going to happen.
And by the way, the point about ships completely true.
That actually happens to be the topic of my next
book that I just sold a couple of weeks ago.
It's about shipping. China has fifty five hundred ocean going vessels.
(38:20):
The US has one hundred and eighty five. So if
the Chinese want to put the squeeze on ships at
a global level, they absolutely can.
Speaker 2 (38:31):
Let's get to Debbie, who's in Manchester, Tennessee. Debbie, how
are you feeling the tariffs?
Speaker 20 (38:39):
Hi?
Speaker 14 (38:39):
Jamy, Well, I just come from a consumer perspective. You know,
I've noticed some price is going up, but I don't
know if those were directly because of tariffs right now.
But my main question that I'm calling about is if
the guests have any insight on insurance premiums. I've had
a conversation with someone today who said their homeown policy
(39:00):
went up to five thousand dollars for a year on
a home that's worth less than one hundred thousand dollars.
So I just didn't know if that was something to think.
Speaker 2 (39:14):
Yeah, I think I think I'm correct in saying that
that they are going up, but not because of the tariffs.
In this case, we can't blame that. Is that right, Rhano,
We can't blame the tariffs.
Speaker 6 (39:23):
It's true they are going up. They've gone up in
the last two years across the board in some I
don't know which date you're calling from. Tennessee, Tennessee, Well,
actually yes, they in the South Tennessee has got flooding
issues and that's that's one of the things that's raising
premiums there. Of course, Florida has become almost uninsurable. New
(39:44):
York we're having problems. I actually had to cancel our
policy and get a cut catastrophic policy because we couldn't
afford it anymore because we're in a flood zone in Brooklyn.
So this is a national problem.
Speaker 2 (39:55):
Yeah, let's go to autumn. Who's in Gainesville, Florida.
Speaker 1 (39:58):
Autumn. How are you feeling the tariff?
Speaker 14 (40:02):
Yeah?
Speaker 21 (40:02):
So I wanted to talk about how Trump's caraff policies
have impacted plant science research. These terrifts that didn't just
hit farmers, They have disrupted the supply chain for essential
materials and equipment used in agricultural research. Prices like lab instruments,
grow chambers, greenhouse materials, DNA sequencing, and even fertilizers has
(40:25):
increased due to the tariffs. A lot of people don't
think about that side as well, not just the farmers,
but the researchers are also getting impacted as well as collaboration.
International collaboration has been affected by it as well.
Speaker 2 (40:40):
And you're in Gainesville where the University of Florida is.
Have you been unable to do research because of this?
Speaker 21 (40:47):
I've heard of other researchers having complications, especially with other
researchers in China and Canada.
Speaker 1 (40:55):
Yeah, there's a lot of collaboration.
Speaker 21 (40:58):
There is, and It's really sad to see this happen
because any type of research that's happening with plant science
is essentially us figuring out ways how to feed the world.
Speaker 2 (41:10):
So well, Autumn, a very interesting Thank you for calling,
and I'm going to do Keenan, who's in Salt Lake City. Keenan,
how are you feeling the tariffs?
Speaker 22 (41:21):
So there's a cottage industry in information security cybersecurity conferences
of making tiny electronic statches. So this is basically a
circuit board maybe a few centimeters on a side, a
few LEDs, a resistor, maybe a micro controller, and of
course all of these things are searched from China. So
a bunch of these conferences normally have a big trading
(41:43):
culture of there will be probably one hundred different people
who have made their own badge, brought it to this culture,
and so far seventy percent of those people this year
or more, people who didn't serve it before the tariffs.
They're out of the industry right now. And this would
be these would sell for maybe five bucks, often had
an offs, and they're gone now.
Speaker 1 (42:05):
Wow. Yeah, I didn't even think about that. Julie Neiman.
Speaker 2 (42:08):
I imagine that throughout your career, You've been to a
lot of conferences. I mean, this is something I never
even thought of that comes in from China. But an
interesting point there.
Speaker 9 (42:18):
Well, so many electronic components and everything we're using come
in from China. I'm sitting here with my Apple computer,
you know, so you can't get much more straightforward on that.
Everything has Chinese components in it. And all they have
to do is stop shipping to us and let's see
what happens when we tried it on.
Speaker 16 (42:38):
Run.
Speaker 12 (42:39):
You know.
Speaker 2 (42:40):
One of the big issues here is that the US
has traditionally been the safe harbor when times get tough economically,
people flocked to the securities the US treasuries, the safety
of those We're seen as an as up and up
as a trading partner.
Speaker 1 (42:57):
Is that still the case, Well, it's.
Speaker 6 (43:01):
More the case in some ways than it should be.
And let me explain. I mean, countries that have the
kind of debt and deficit pictures that the US does
and the kind of political volatility that we have right
now would typically be seeing a much weaker economy, would
be seeing much higher borrowing costs, interest rates would be higher.
But because the US dollar is the currency of last
(43:23):
resort for the world. We get, you know, as they say,
the exorbitant burden, exorbitant privilege. The Trump administration is focused
more on the burden part. It does make American goods
more expensive, and that's one of the reasons that you
have this tariff paradigm. But there's another thing happening here,
which is the rest of the world. China in particular
wants to move away from the US dollar, and in fact,
(43:43):
the Chinese and Russians and a number of other central
banks around the world and the Arab world have been
stockpiling gold really since before COVID. They want to start
doing more trade in their own currencies or in digital
currencies digital R and B, or in gold. They want
to move away from the dollar, and I think eventually
(44:04):
that will that will weaken the dollar and potentially lower
US asset prices. It's a tough needle to thread right now.
The Trump administration is trying to have it both ways.
They want to do this reshoring, they want to bolster manufacturing,
but they also want the US dollar to be the
place of last resort. May not be able to have
it both ways.
Speaker 2 (44:26):
Levi is in Colorado Springs, Colorado, LEVI, how are the
tariffs affecting you?
Speaker 23 (44:32):
Yeah, I have a manufacturing company to make specialty hinges
for you know, be able to hinge like bookcases and
things of that nature, and there well, I was just
in the early stages of my company doing prototyping back
and forth with China and getting the parts. And I
don't disagree with the terriffs and principle. I more disagree
(44:55):
with how they are rolled out, how chaotic everything is,
and it's basic priced me out of the market. So
I've got twenty five thousand dollars into this, you know,
startup company that I'm basically just going to take a
loss on at this point because there's no way without
manufacturing them in China that I will be able to
make them at a price that people can afford.
Speaker 1 (45:15):
But you still believe in the tariffs and principle.
Speaker 23 (45:19):
I believe in some of the tariffs and principle. I
don't believe I'm putting one hundred and forty five percent
tariffs on right probably anybody you know. But I think
that if you were to do this in a slow way,
to try to balance the markets in a reasonable way
where you let people know what's going so they have
time to prepare and they have time to build up
manufacturing here in the United States. I see that it
(45:40):
could benefit us in some ways. Putting, you know, tariffs
on islands that don't have any human inhabitants and things
of that nature.
Speaker 15 (45:48):
I don't see.
Speaker 1 (45:49):
Anything from that.
Speaker 2 (45:50):
There was there was an island that had known Thank
you Levi, you know Taliver. I don't think we've ever
had so many calls in the Aero Bephore, but this
is just so much fun to go to these different
people and here, what's going on with the tariffs. I'm
going to do one more Phyllis in Western Arizona. Phyllis
quickly tell us how the tariffs are.
Speaker 20 (46:06):
Affecting you, Hi, Well, I'm definitely in the middle, and
I work for a small business jewelry custom jewelry operation.
The tariffs and combined with the rise in gold, I
should say, the ups and downs of gold have created
(46:28):
quite a conundrum within the industry, and not just for
our business, but for many of the other jewelers across
the country. And we talk to different people all the time.
Just for an example, this time last year, two gold
chains would run us maybe four hundred dollars and shipping.
(46:49):
Now it's seven hundred and fifty plus the sixty dollars
tariff plus tax plus shipping.
Speaker 24 (46:57):
Wow, and yeah and so. And because we advertise buying
gold at the daily rate, what we had was more
people coming in to sell their old.
Speaker 1 (47:09):
Gold wow merchant Yeah, yeah.
Speaker 24 (47:13):
Yea for almost three months now. It's really bad.
Speaker 1 (47:18):
That's amazing.
Speaker 2 (47:19):
It reminds me actually of what was happening when when
car price is really high and then people all of
a sudden were able to sell their used cars at
a much higher price because they wanted that.
Speaker 1 (47:29):
We are running out of time here.
Speaker 2 (47:30):
I just want to ask each of our guests, and
I'll start with you, Rana, just a quick prediction about
the economy for the rest of this year, based on
what you know about these tariffs.
Speaker 6 (47:40):
Well, I'm going to be watching the summer very carefully.
It's going to We're that's going to be the tell.
Are we going to slip into recession? Is the inflationary
pressure going to be too much to bear? I would
not be surprised if we saw a slow down by fall.
Speaker 2 (47:53):
Yeah, Rana, thank you very much. And Julie, you know,
let me ask you for your prediction thirty seconds. What
do you think is going to happen in the economy
the rest of this year.
Speaker 9 (48:03):
Well, because the inflation we see is due to tariffs,
we're not going to be seeing any cut in interest
rates for the time being. That will be holding up
even though underlying inflation is going down. We're also going
to be seeing just from a chaos standpoint, no activity
on anybody's part. You're not going to see companies expanding.
They're going to be terminating a lot of plans for expansion.
(48:26):
I see of recession coming.
Speaker 7 (48:28):
Wow.
Speaker 2 (48:29):
That is Financial analyst Julie Neeman, and we've been speaking
also with Financial Times Business Comments and Associate editor Rona Farujar.
Speaker 1 (48:35):
Thanks so much to both of our.
Speaker 2 (48:36):
Guests, and don't Forget the Middle is available as a
podcast in partnership with iHeart Podcasts on the iHeart Apple
wherever you listen to podcasts. Coming to your feet in
the next few days an episode of our weekly podcast
Extra One Thing Trump Did. We're going to be asking
what DOGE is doing with all of our data, and
next week we'll be right back here asking if not DEI,
then what can be done to ensure everyone has equal opportunity.
Speaker 3 (49:00):
Excited for that one. As always, you can call in
at eight four four four Middle. That's eight four four
four six four three three five three, or you can
reach out at Listen to the Middle dot com, where
you can also sign up for our free weekly newsletter
and support us with a tax deductible donation.
Speaker 2 (49:14):
The Middle is brought to you by Longduck Media, distributed
by Illinois Public Media in Urbana, Illinois, and produced by
Harrison Patino, Danny, Alexander Samburmstas, John barth, An Akadeshlar, and
Brandon Condritz.
Speaker 1 (49:24):
I'm Jeremy Hobson. I will talk to you next week.
Host
Jeremy Hobson
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