August 10, 2023 • 25 mins
In this episode, Lisa is joined by Robert Cahaly from the Trafalgar Group who provides insight into the current state of the Republican primary field and the strength of Donald Trump's support. They discuss how candidates are shifting and realigning based on their performance, with DeSantis' supporters moving to other candidates like Chris Christie and Mike Pence. Cahaly highlights Trump's strong support from the Republican base, despite facing multiple indictments and impeachments. They also discuss potential strategies for Democrats, the impact of third-party candidates, and the vulnerabilities of both Trump and Biden in the upcoming election. The Truth with Lisa Boothe is part of the iHeartRadio Podcast Network - new episodes debut every Monday and Thursday.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
We live in a chaotic world and we're always trying
to make sense of it. Here on this podcast, I
always try to find guests who I trust, who can
bring us the truth and can try to make sense
of this chaotic world that we're living in. So we're
going to do that today with Robert Cahally of the
Trafalgar Group. We've had him on previously, you know, throughout
(00:22):
the midterm election to kind of break things down, break
down the issues, give us a snapshot of where things stand.
So we're going to do that taking a look at
the Republican primary field. You know, what does that look like?
How strong is Donald Trump's support? You know, he's been
up in the polls, so what does that mean? What
does that look like? Is the room for other candidates
(00:42):
or is it kind of over at this point. We're
going to get his take on that, also his take
on where Joe Biden stands, his poll numbers, his vulnerabilities,
and what are the big issues right now for Americans.
We're facing a lot of different issues, you know, a
lot's going on, So how does that play out right
now in the twenty twenty four presidential election. So we're
(01:05):
gonna get Robert's take on all of it. He's very insightful,
he knows the numbers. He's been right about most things.
So here's Robert.
Speaker 2 (01:18):
Robert.
Speaker 1 (01:18):
It's always a pleasure to have you on this show.
You know, I trust you, I trust your work, so
I appreciate you taking the time.
Speaker 2 (01:25):
Well, it is his pleasure to be here.
Speaker 3 (01:27):
And you're one of those voices that brings comfort to
a lot of conservatives and a lot of people out
there who are trying to figure out what's going on.
So it's always somebody listened Toody like you who some
of the people listen to.
Speaker 2 (01:41):
It's just honored to be here.
Speaker 1 (01:43):
Well, that's very kind. I appreciate it. And you know,
we're all trying to make sense of well it's hard
to make sense of this world sometimes because you know,
things are a little crazy. But you know, I wanted
to have you on obviously. Look, we've got a lot
of time, a lifetime in politics before the Iowacoquises and
the Republican primary you know, really get started. But I
just wanted to kind of have you on to give
(02:04):
us a snapshot of where things stand now, you know,
looking at the Republican primary field, you know, how do
you assess things.
Speaker 3 (02:12):
It's a primary field that is certainly shifting, and it's
it's it's in bloods right now.
Speaker 2 (02:18):
People are kind of.
Speaker 3 (02:19):
Aligning and realigning based on how they feel candidates for doing.
Speaker 2 (02:23):
Uh, we've seen the Santas kind of trip a little bit,
and we've seen u you know, some of some.
Speaker 3 (02:30):
Of his coalition is kind of peeled off. I would
say some of the most never Trumper elements behind the
Santis I have abandoned him to go to Chris Christy
and go over to believe it or not, Mike Pence.
Speaker 2 (02:45):
And then and then you see, you know, with.
Speaker 3 (02:48):
Tim Scott Andraswami's entrance, Uh, they have taken a lot
of the steam out of kind of that the group
that was was not so overtly and Trump, and then
Rashami has sent so frankly pro Trump that he has
kind of taken a lot of that middle ground that
(03:08):
some of the voters have come off of De Santis
that were, you know, they were they were Trump hesitant,
but they're still like him and they like what he did.
They just thought maybe somebody different and they see res
from me kind of basically taking up some.
Speaker 2 (03:24):
Of the same issues in the same positions, and they.
Speaker 3 (03:28):
Like him, and so I feel like he's got the
energy I see energy out of Tim Scott right now.
But those two kind of moving up and the Santas
and Hayley kind of moving down. And so there's just
a shifting going on, and you know, Chris Christie kind
of came in and lightning life that whether he's going
(03:48):
to get beyond two or three percent uh nasally or
any state will have to see.
Speaker 1 (03:53):
You know, that's interesting what you said about Ramaswami, because
you know, each candidate in the race are taking different approaches,
is in how they deal with Trump, who's obviously been
the front runner from the start, and he really hasn't
gone after Donald Trump. So you're saying so far that
strategy has worked out for him in picking up maybe
some of the softer support for Trump going in his direction.
Speaker 2 (04:15):
Well, so these are supporters who were basically supporting.
Speaker 3 (04:19):
De Santis at the time because they thought he was
Trump liked, I mean, and so he's taking those people
away from the Santas. I mean, I don't think anybody
works from Trump, but he's taken those kind of people away,
and you know, it is I would say it's more
than not just going after him. I mean, the guy
was standing on the street with a megaphone in Miami
when Trump was arranged. I mean, this guy has.
Speaker 2 (04:42):
Gone out of his way to say, hey Trump voters,
you know I'm the most pro Trump candidate out there.
He has been fighting to take that moniker.
Speaker 1 (04:52):
How strong is Donald Trump's support right now from the
Republican base?
Speaker 3 (04:57):
Well, I mean, firstly, look at you're in a primary here,
and he's over fifty percent in a primary after being
indicted three times and impeached twice.
Speaker 2 (05:06):
I mean, back right there is amazing.
Speaker 3 (05:09):
You said it is literally like an incumbent, but it's
it's almost like, you know, a popular incumbent.
Speaker 2 (05:16):
I mean not you know, not overwhelmingly popularity.
Speaker 3 (05:19):
Didn't draw a primary, but certainly if he drew a primary.
I mean, when this guy is at fifty percent, I
mean I was really thinking that Trump could be successful.
When I was kind of thinking in my mind how
how twenty twenty four would go, I was thinking that
this guy can stay around thirty five or forty, he could,
he can win everything.
Speaker 2 (05:39):
I mean, none, none of us had.
Speaker 3 (05:40):
It in the mat that he would be doing this, well,
it just didn't seem that wasn't anybody's calculation that it
was possible.
Speaker 2 (05:49):
But we also didn't did not see the impact.
Speaker 3 (05:55):
That that having this, all these indictments have.
Speaker 1 (06:01):
You know, some will say, you know, and I've said
it as well, you know, in kind of looking at
the caveat of Look, it's early. You know, at this
point twenty fifteen.
Speaker 2 (06:08):
Jeb Bush was up.
Speaker 1 (06:09):
Is that a fair comparison or are we just talking
about something completely different with Donald Trump being so far
ahead right now?
Speaker 2 (06:16):
I mean, if you're comparing Jeb Bush to Donald Trump.
Speaker 1 (06:20):
Just to clar right, not necessarily. Obviously, Donald Trump is
a political beast and Jeb Bush is not. Just in
the point that we looked at past elections where someone's
sort of been the front runner and then that's tapered off.
Speaker 2 (06:30):
I totally hear. Yeah, it's just ya.
Speaker 1 (06:33):
Just to be clear, Jeb Bush with an exclamation mark,
is not a comparison to Donald Trump.
Speaker 3 (06:38):
So just like Jeb Bush had this far out, I mean,
it wasn't it didn't have the same energy that there's an.
Speaker 2 (06:46):
Energy level to Trump.
Speaker 3 (06:47):
And again, when Jeb Bush got pounded and hit a
few times in the face. The numbers fell off. Donald
Trump is literally hit in the face, but like more
times than Rocky I mean, And the fact that these
voters are still there, I think that's it. It's that
(07:12):
they don't see him backing down from a fight. I mean,
if this guy was facing one indictment that seemed kind
of serious, it would be a lot more effective than
three or four. Because now it's just like they just
they're kind of finding the throw in the kitchen sink
adding and they're starting to lose people who were beginning
(07:34):
to who would be willing to accept that if they
indiced him for one thing, the multi indictments are the
best gift they could have given.
Speaker 1 (07:42):
My only concern is a Republican primary voter, is that obviously,
you know, conservatives see it that way and I see
it that way, and looking at the Department of Justice
and realizing that, you know, this is pretty clear weaponization
of government against him, as we've seen really from the start.
I guess my concern is, you know, I wonder if
you get to a general election, if independents see it
(08:04):
that way, and if general election voters see it that way,
or if just conservatives are alone and in viewing it
that way, it.
Speaker 3 (08:11):
Has a lot to do with, you know, what their
life experiences and a lot of people, I mean, Trump
has made a connection that I feel like.
Speaker 2 (08:19):
Is strong with anybody who's kind.
Speaker 3 (08:22):
Of felt like it was them versus the government or anything.
Speaker 2 (08:26):
And I mean anything from.
Speaker 3 (08:27):
Like the irs you have problem with state regulators to
you a problem with the zoning board. I mean just
I think he's kind of making connection people and that's
that's a lot of people, and that's frankly a lot
of independence.
Speaker 2 (08:42):
So you know, there's a lot of people going to
vote on other issues. But the entire credibility of.
Speaker 3 (08:50):
The attacks, if again one indictment, I think, and it
makes independence really think.
Speaker 2 (08:58):
But three or four just looks.
Speaker 3 (09:00):
I mean, everybody, nobody's getting that. And the other thing
that the comparison to everybody is making that we find
at Poey people making is they're spending a lot of
time going after a lot of political stuff, and yet we.
Speaker 2 (09:16):
Have chaos on the street. How is this right?
Speaker 3 (09:24):
And people are very concerned about their personal safety and
their the safety of their property and seeing all this
chaos in the streets and that and that the focus
of law enforcement seems to be political enemies that don't
make any sense to anybody. And that's the thing we're
hearing is, you know, I don't feel safe to go
(09:48):
take my kids to the park in the late afternoon,
and that this is what we got time, This is
what we're focused on. This is what law enforcements focused on,
you know, all the stuff coming across the bordering gangs
and fit and all. And that's the FBI focus is Trump.
I mean, that's the kind of stuff we're hearing from
(10:10):
independent type voters. They just don't understand why this is
so all consumpt all.
Speaker 2 (10:18):
Consuming of law enforcements attention and resources.
Speaker 1 (10:23):
No, I mean that makes a lot of sense. You know,
I live in Miami, I'm in New York City right now,
and I don't feel safe walking around, you know. And
then you've got Alvin Bragg pursuing, you know, this indictment
against Donald Trump when the city is really in shamble.
So to your point, you know, it doesn't make sense.
Trump obviously is just this interesting political phenomenon where you know,
he energizes a lot of people, but he also energizes
(10:45):
people against him. Does he energize more people against him?
Than he energizes for him.
Speaker 3 (10:51):
I think that there can be arguments made about that
in the past, but I think it really depends on
who they run.
Speaker 2 (10:59):
Because they run.
Speaker 3 (11:00):
Biden, or they run Harris, or are they run Newsome,
They're not running somebody who's powered one. Now, the Democrats
were smart, they were really smart, they'd go grab a
John Bell Edwards and Louisiana who has a very middle
of the road record, and they'd kind of run a
centrist Democrat like when they I mean at the time
(11:21):
Bill Clinton was, and they would they would wipe out
that that that middle.
Speaker 2 (11:27):
But the thing is it depends on who he's against.
Because what people.
Speaker 3 (11:31):
Also realize is they thought when they voted for Biden
that it was just I'm tired of all the drama
Trump brings.
Speaker 2 (11:40):
Uh, we just need a.
Speaker 3 (11:41):
Little more stability and a little more quiet. This guy
is kind of modern. He won't we change things.
Speaker 4 (11:45):
Well, they've seen that that that's not what happens when
you put a Democrat. Certainly somebody who starts acting on
the left in office. And Biden only won because the
perception that he's the moderate guy. He won't make a
big difference, he won't cause any big waves. Well, no
one thinks that Biden don't cause waves if he gets
(12:06):
re elected. No one thinks Harris wouldn't cause waves if
she got reelected.
Speaker 3 (12:12):
And no one thinks that that Govin wouldn't either. So
you have three people that will take the country in
the same direction nobody wants to go. And also when
people get scared, when people start fearing for their national safety,
then it changes their mindset. You know, they only wanted
(12:32):
Churchill when they were in a war. But when you're
but but when things look when it looks like, you know,
the walls are closed in and you got China and
Russia teaming up together and basically the access I mean,
you know, the beginnings of a third World war, access
powers coming together. Now, now's when you want the biggest,
baddest guy you can get. And if you've got to
(12:54):
put up a little attitude to have some strength, you
want it because American weakness is not getting it us anywhere.
Speaker 2 (13:00):
People know it, and people see it, and they feel it.
Speaker 3 (13:03):
They feel it from the way Chata seems you're pushing
us around the dumbest thing I've ever seen.
Speaker 2 (13:09):
That balloon because it is galvanized. The America public that
gets China more than anything I've ever seen, and people
are a little scared about that.
Speaker 3 (13:17):
And I also think when you look at the dynamic
of this campaign, you also have to look at the
difference between twenty twelve, excuse me, twenty sixteen and twenty twenty.
And the difference was Jill Stein, Jill Stein's margin, was
Trump's margin a victory, Well, in twenty twenty, there were
anybody's tooken up those middle votes, Well there will be
(13:38):
at least one in most states, soaking those up, maybe two,
and that is going to not hurt the Democrats, and
so you know, you get you get into a more
competitive freeway race. And that is also a way that
that Trump's personality could be minimized in his The anti
(14:00):
Trump vote to be split between people because there are
Republicans all across America who did not vote for Trump
who you know, maybe they're you know, they're it didn't
seem appropriate their country club or wherever they were and
all their friends, and they it was just good to
vote for Trump and that Biden wouldn't be fine. And
now they're like, oh my god, you know, my stock
(14:21):
portfolio is terrible. Everything is terrible, and their votes went
into the bottom call.
Speaker 2 (14:26):
But next time they may not. Some of them might
not vote for Trump, some of them will.
Speaker 3 (14:31):
But giving them somewhere to go, that doesn't just stack
them in the Democrat calum It makes it very competitive.
So the more challengers that are out there, the more
of the race goes. I mean, everybody had needs to
remember Bill Clinton defeated in the combat president with forty
three percent of the popular vote because the race was divided.
Speaker 1 (14:52):
That's a really interesting point about the third party possibilities
and about the Chinese balloon. You know, I obviously fly
pretty often for work, and I'm friends with one of
the waitresses at the airport in normally fly out of
in New York, and she had mentioned the Chinese bloom
to me because she knows where I work at Fox,
and so we started talking about that, so to your point,
(15:12):
you know, and she was talking about just how week
it made us look and how we're you know, So
to your point, I really do think that.
Speaker 2 (15:17):
Did and people are scared.
Speaker 1 (15:19):
Yeah, totally.
Speaker 2 (15:21):
I heard Trump deliver.
Speaker 3 (15:22):
Uh. You know, I grew up in South Carolina and
always been part of South count of politics, and so
I was at the South Kunta annual dinner this weekend
and Trump was the speaker, and one of the lines.
Speaker 2 (15:35):
Of like, you know, I'm the only guy that'll keep
you out of World War three. I think that line
is going to resonate with people. People do not want that.
Speaker 3 (15:46):
I mean people would like to you know, nobody, nobody
wants to get in some kind of worldwide conflicts of
nuclear weapons. Nobody wants that. And for him to say, hey,
you know, I'm the only kept you out of war.
I'm the only one that didn't start me thinking I'm
decelerated things. That message a tough guy who doesn't want
(16:08):
to fight, but be ready to have a strong defense
in a void to fight as a compelling mess to.
Speaker 1 (16:14):
Take a quick commercial break more with Robert on the
other side. Obviously, you know you'll get national polls, and
his support is very strong in the Republican primary. Are
you seeing that translate you know, obviously primary nominations or
state by state to win. Are you seeing that support
translate into the individual state contest as well?
Speaker 3 (16:37):
Yes, the state contest are breaking up, raking up a
little different each one, but in everyone I'm.
Speaker 2 (16:44):
Not only common out and as it current leads by
wild March.
Speaker 3 (16:49):
So absolutely, that is yes, definitely what we're seeing in
the in the different state and it you know, it's
just you know, one state you'll have somebody different leading
u you know, you have certain candidates doing better and
in places like I mean, Chris Christie's probably actually last
time I look, I feel like Chris Christie is doing
(17:09):
a little better in New Hampshire, and.
Speaker 2 (17:14):
Uh, Nikki Hayley was doing and Tim Scott.
Speaker 3 (17:17):
Were doing better in South Carolina in the Santa was
probably one of his low estates, and so those states
are are kind of checking up. But the commonality is
that Trump is his way ahead.
Speaker 1 (17:29):
Why do you think Desantas isn't registering with Republican primary
voters as much as you know, a lot of people anticipated,
including myself.
Speaker 3 (17:38):
There are a lot of people who convinced him to
run because it was his moment, and I know they
used the whole you know, Chris Christie should run against Obama.
Speaker 2 (17:45):
It was his time. Well, his moment was February and
March of this year. It was like he let the.
Speaker 3 (17:54):
Anticipation of him running build and build and build and build,
and then you're ready to deliver some kind of a
massive crescendo if you've let it build that much. And
then it was like the.
Speaker 2 (18:05):
Four hours all day I could talk about that. He
went and bought fireworks.
Speaker 3 (18:08):
And he opens up his trunk and You're like, are
you serious that's what you bought. You were excited, you
thought we were gonna be sitting fireworks all night. He
got a file of bottle rockets in the Trump and
I think it was like that, It's just he let
the expectation bid.
Speaker 2 (18:23):
I think if you'd have gotten in this ration, February
would be looking at a different race altogether.
Speaker 1 (18:27):
That's a really interesting point that makes a lot of sense.
You had mentioned that obviously crime and people just not
feeling safe, which I think is something that really just
registers with everyone who's listening. But you know, what are
the big issues you're seeing right now in pulling that
Americans are just concerned about that are top of mind.
Speaker 3 (18:46):
Economy is one, and the thing about the economy is
and this is what people are saying is, you know
there's this idea that we you know, with everything going
on with tum come about, there's two justice systems, so people.
Speaker 2 (18:59):
Feel like there's two economies.
Speaker 3 (19:01):
There is nothing that upsets a working family who had
to put last month's grocery bills on a credit card
more than to watching the news and having everybody say
the economy is improving, and they're.
Speaker 2 (19:14):
Like, for who, because they don't feel it at all.
Speaker 3 (19:19):
And so this idea that that we are moving into
almost a destruction of the middle class, that they're gonna
be a rich few elite who do well and then
everybody else is just going to have to, you know,
figure it out. It is kind of is what way
(19:39):
things are feeling, and so people need to They don't
feel like there's been major belief. They don't feel like
good things are happening.
Speaker 2 (19:49):
No matter how no matter how much the news.
Speaker 3 (19:51):
Says good things are happening, how employment is up and
all that kind of stuff, because what they know is
what we know is that, first of all, there's a
lot of people who aren't looking for jobs anymore. That
makes the unemployment numbers high, and there's a lot of
people who are doing jobs that are they're much capable
of much more just because you know, you used to
be running a branch of a bank and that, and
(20:13):
now you know you're managing a restaurant that you may
still have a job, but.
Speaker 2 (20:19):
You might make it half what you were making.
Speaker 1 (20:21):
There are a lot of issues culturally going on in
the country right now. You know, look at the transgender issue,
you look at some of the things kids are being
taught in schools. How do you see the culture wars
presenting themselves in sort of a general election? You know,
how does that all play out politically?
Speaker 3 (20:41):
Some of the Republicans who who are to tell me, they're, oh,
you know, you got too much culture war. I'm like,
you don't understand. Cultural war is what builds this army.
Without what's been happening recently, we would have the same
old people. But whether it was target, whether it was
by light, whether it is transgender athletes playing women's sports.
(21:05):
There are a lot of new recruits to this side
because of these culture conflicts. Uh, you know, from what's
being taught in schools, and all of a sudden, it
is one of the single greatest thing that will make
us more competitive with suburban women are some of these
(21:25):
exact culture wars. Because now that they're they're so they're
so upset about what's going on.
Speaker 2 (21:33):
In their schools that.
Speaker 3 (21:37):
They may they may look at the Republicans that they
you know, kind of return the nose on in the
path and go, wait a minute, these guys are standing
up for us, and these guys are for you know,
having our children. We tall kind of sex stuff when
they're in second grade, and so they're winning over new recruits.
Speaker 2 (21:58):
That nothing moves people to this column faster.
Speaker 3 (22:01):
I mean, how many how many people do you know
that we consider themselves non political who who have made
a personal decision.
Speaker 2 (22:11):
Maybe it's to avoid target, maybe it's.
Speaker 3 (22:13):
About bud light or something else that you said, Oh
I didn't really well as you cared about stuff like that.
I mean, that's been that's been happening all over the country,
and I think it certainly makes Republicans more competitive than
a general election with some of these suburban folks than
they have been in quite some time.
Speaker 1 (22:31):
And that's important too, because you know, one of if
Donald Trump is the Republican not many you know, one
of his areas of weakness has been with women, particularly
suburban women.
Speaker 2 (22:41):
Yeah, so I feel like that is that is a
real pickup for them.
Speaker 1 (22:45):
Looking at Joe Biden, how vulnerable is he right now?
Weird takeaways and looking at his numbers, I.
Speaker 3 (22:52):
Think he's the single most vulnerable president run for vice
president that I have ever seen.
Speaker 2 (23:00):
You know, I don't know much.
Speaker 3 (23:01):
About what Carter was facing, but it's that bad from
what I've been told people to understand that that race.
Speaker 2 (23:10):
I think that this guy's he's just he is in
real trouble. He's lost so much and I haven't figured
out yet. While the Democrats just don't do something different.
Speaker 3 (23:22):
I mean, why they don't just realize that this impeachment,
I mean, this whole Hunter Bobben thing is a gift
for them and use it to get rid of the guy.
Speaker 2 (23:32):
I can't forget why they would just go forward with him.
It doesn't make any sense.
Speaker 1 (23:36):
With break more in pulling.
Speaker 2 (23:40):
Well.
Speaker 1 (23:41):
And then you've got Kamala Harris, who is the least
popular vice president in American history. So there really isn't
anyone on the ticket right now that has a you know,
positive approval rating with Americans.
Speaker 2 (23:53):
That's true.
Speaker 1 (23:54):
Gavin Newsom's obviously waiting in the wings. You know, how
strong politically do you think he would be in a
general election?
Speaker 3 (24:01):
I don't think he'd be as strong as probably Gavin thinks,
because nobody looks at California as a success story. When
a governor runs, he has to he or she has
to sell their status as.
Speaker 2 (24:12):
A success story. And you've seen that at every governor.
Speaker 3 (24:15):
Who's had a successful presidency or who has been able
to achieve the presidency, they sold what they accomplished and.
Speaker 2 (24:21):
Governor and he can't do it.
Speaker 3 (24:24):
So you know, he thinks he can win this thing
on charm and looks alone and I just don't see it.
But I don't think it's possible. He's a very flawed candidate.
And that's why even if Republicans nominate someone very controversial
like Trump, it's all about who you run against.
Speaker 1 (24:41):
Robert, I've learned a lot from this conversation. I appreciate
you taking the time. Is there anything else you'd like
to leave us with before we go?
Speaker 3 (24:48):
Keeping on what's going on out there, and realize that
there's a lot of.
Speaker 2 (24:54):
People trying to put nonsense and trying to confuse you,
and pay attention.
Speaker 3 (25:00):
And make sure that when you get to get a
chance to hear directly from the candidate what they think
out of our own mouth.
Speaker 2 (25:09):
Take it.
Speaker 1 (25:10):
It's great advice. Robert, thanks so much for taking the time.
I really appreciate it. It's always great to catch up,
and I'd love to have you on periodically just to
kind of bring us updates as we move along here.
Speaker 2 (25:19):
I'll look forward to it those.
Speaker 1 (25:24):
Robert Kahali with the Trafalgar Group always interesting. Really appreciated
his perspective, and we're going to try to do these
check ins with him throughout the primary just to you know,
obviously these are just a snapshot of time, but it's
just helpful to kind of, you know, try to figure
out where things stand. So appreciate you guys at home
for taking the time to listen every Monday and Thursday,
(25:44):
but of course you can listen to it whenever you want. Podcast.
I want to think John Cassio and my producer for
putting it together. Feel free to leave us review on
Apple Podcasts. Love reading those, give us a rating Until
next time.
We live in a chaotic world and we're always trying
to make sense of it. Here on this podcast, I
always try to find guests who I trust, who can
bring us the truth and can try to make sense
of this chaotic world that we're living in. So we're
going to do that today with Robert Cahally of the
Trafalgar Group. We've had him on previously, you know, throughout
(00:22):
the midterm election to kind of break things down, break
down the issues, give us a snapshot of where things stand.
So we're going to do that taking a look at
the Republican primary field. You know, what does that look like?
How strong is Donald Trump's support? You know, he's been
up in the polls, so what does that mean? What
does that look like? Is the room for other candidates
(00:42):
or is it kind of over at this point. We're
going to get his take on that, also his take
on where Joe Biden stands, his poll numbers, his vulnerabilities,
and what are the big issues right now for Americans.
We're facing a lot of different issues, you know, a
lot's going on, So how does that play out right
now in the twenty twenty four presidential election. So we're
(01:05):
gonna get Robert's take on all of it. He's very insightful,
he knows the numbers. He's been right about most things.
So here's Robert.
Speaker 2 (01:18):
Robert.
Speaker 1 (01:18):
It's always a pleasure to have you on this show.
You know, I trust you, I trust your work, so
I appreciate you taking the time.
Speaker 2 (01:25):
Well, it is his pleasure to be here.
Speaker 3 (01:27):
And you're one of those voices that brings comfort to
a lot of conservatives and a lot of people out
there who are trying to figure out what's going on.
So it's always somebody listened Toody like you who some
of the people listen to.
Speaker 2 (01:41):
It's just honored to be here.
Speaker 1 (01:43):
Well, that's very kind. I appreciate it. And you know,
we're all trying to make sense of well it's hard
to make sense of this world sometimes because you know,
things are a little crazy. But you know, I wanted
to have you on obviously. Look, we've got a lot
of time, a lifetime in politics before the Iowacoquises and
the Republican primary you know, really get started. But I
just wanted to kind of have you on to give
(02:04):
us a snapshot of where things stand now, you know,
looking at the Republican primary field, you know, how do
you assess things.
Speaker 3 (02:12):
It's a primary field that is certainly shifting, and it's
it's it's in bloods right now.
Speaker 2 (02:18):
People are kind of.
Speaker 3 (02:19):
Aligning and realigning based on how they feel candidates for doing.
Speaker 2 (02:23):
Uh, we've seen the Santas kind of trip a little bit,
and we've seen u you know, some of some.
Speaker 3 (02:30):
Of his coalition is kind of peeled off. I would
say some of the most never Trumper elements behind the
Santis I have abandoned him to go to Chris Christy
and go over to believe it or not, Mike Pence.
Speaker 2 (02:45):
And then and then you see, you know, with.
Speaker 3 (02:48):
Tim Scott Andraswami's entrance, Uh, they have taken a lot
of the steam out of kind of that the group
that was was not so overtly and Trump, and then
Rashami has sent so frankly pro Trump that he has
kind of taken a lot of that middle ground that
(03:08):
some of the voters have come off of De Santis
that were, you know, they were they were Trump hesitant,
but they're still like him and they like what he did.
They just thought maybe somebody different and they see res
from me kind of basically taking up some.
Speaker 2 (03:24):
Of the same issues in the same positions, and they.
Speaker 3 (03:28):
Like him, and so I feel like he's got the
energy I see energy out of Tim Scott right now.
But those two kind of moving up and the Santas
and Hayley kind of moving down. And so there's just
a shifting going on, and you know, Chris Christie kind
of came in and lightning life that whether he's going
(03:48):
to get beyond two or three percent uh nasally or
any state will have to see.
Speaker 1 (03:53):
You know, that's interesting what you said about Ramaswami, because
you know, each candidate in the race are taking different approaches,
is in how they deal with Trump, who's obviously been
the front runner from the start, and he really hasn't
gone after Donald Trump. So you're saying so far that
strategy has worked out for him in picking up maybe
some of the softer support for Trump going in his direction.
Speaker 2 (04:15):
Well, so these are supporters who were basically supporting.
Speaker 3 (04:19):
De Santis at the time because they thought he was
Trump liked, I mean, and so he's taking those people
away from the Santas. I mean, I don't think anybody
works from Trump, but he's taken those kind of people away,
and you know, it is I would say it's more
than not just going after him. I mean, the guy
was standing on the street with a megaphone in Miami
when Trump was arranged. I mean, this guy has.
Speaker 2 (04:42):
Gone out of his way to say, hey Trump voters,
you know I'm the most pro Trump candidate out there.
He has been fighting to take that moniker.
Speaker 1 (04:52):
How strong is Donald Trump's support right now from the
Republican base?
Speaker 3 (04:57):
Well, I mean, firstly, look at you're in a primary here,
and he's over fifty percent in a primary after being
indicted three times and impeached twice.
Speaker 2 (05:06):
I mean, back right there is amazing.
Speaker 3 (05:09):
You said it is literally like an incumbent, but it's
it's almost like, you know, a popular incumbent.
Speaker 2 (05:16):
I mean not you know, not overwhelmingly popularity.
Speaker 3 (05:19):
Didn't draw a primary, but certainly if he drew a primary.
I mean, when this guy is at fifty percent, I
mean I was really thinking that Trump could be successful.
When I was kind of thinking in my mind how
how twenty twenty four would go, I was thinking that
this guy can stay around thirty five or forty, he could,
he can win everything.
Speaker 2 (05:39):
I mean, none, none of us had.
Speaker 3 (05:40):
It in the mat that he would be doing this, well,
it just didn't seem that wasn't anybody's calculation that it
was possible.
Speaker 2 (05:49):
But we also didn't did not see the impact.
Speaker 3 (05:55):
That that having this, all these indictments have.
Speaker 1 (06:01):
You know, some will say, you know, and I've said
it as well, you know, in kind of looking at
the caveat of Look, it's early. You know, at this
point twenty fifteen.
Speaker 2 (06:08):
Jeb Bush was up.
Speaker 1 (06:09):
Is that a fair comparison or are we just talking
about something completely different with Donald Trump being so far
ahead right now?
Speaker 2 (06:16):
I mean, if you're comparing Jeb Bush to Donald Trump.
Speaker 1 (06:20):
Just to clar right, not necessarily. Obviously, Donald Trump is
a political beast and Jeb Bush is not. Just in
the point that we looked at past elections where someone's
sort of been the front runner and then that's tapered off.
Speaker 2 (06:30):
I totally hear. Yeah, it's just ya.
Speaker 1 (06:33):
Just to be clear, Jeb Bush with an exclamation mark,
is not a comparison to Donald Trump.
Speaker 3 (06:38):
So just like Jeb Bush had this far out, I mean,
it wasn't it didn't have the same energy that there's an.
Speaker 2 (06:46):
Energy level to Trump.
Speaker 3 (06:47):
And again, when Jeb Bush got pounded and hit a
few times in the face. The numbers fell off. Donald
Trump is literally hit in the face, but like more
times than Rocky I mean, And the fact that these
voters are still there, I think that's it. It's that
(07:12):
they don't see him backing down from a fight. I mean,
if this guy was facing one indictment that seemed kind
of serious, it would be a lot more effective than
three or four. Because now it's just like they just
they're kind of finding the throw in the kitchen sink
adding and they're starting to lose people who were beginning
(07:34):
to who would be willing to accept that if they
indiced him for one thing, the multi indictments are the
best gift they could have given.
Speaker 1 (07:42):
My only concern is a Republican primary voter, is that obviously,
you know, conservatives see it that way and I see
it that way, and looking at the Department of Justice
and realizing that, you know, this is pretty clear weaponization
of government against him, as we've seen really from the start.
I guess my concern is, you know, I wonder if
you get to a general election, if independents see it
(08:04):
that way, and if general election voters see it that way,
or if just conservatives are alone and in viewing it
that way, it.
Speaker 3 (08:11):
Has a lot to do with, you know, what their
life experiences and a lot of people, I mean, Trump
has made a connection that I feel like.
Speaker 2 (08:19):
Is strong with anybody who's kind.
Speaker 3 (08:22):
Of felt like it was them versus the government or anything.
Speaker 2 (08:26):
And I mean anything from.
Speaker 3 (08:27):
Like the irs you have problem with state regulators to
you a problem with the zoning board. I mean just
I think he's kind of making connection people and that's
that's a lot of people, and that's frankly a lot
of independence.
Speaker 2 (08:42):
So you know, there's a lot of people going to
vote on other issues. But the entire credibility of.
Speaker 3 (08:50):
The attacks, if again one indictment, I think, and it
makes independence really think.
Speaker 2 (08:58):
But three or four just looks.
Speaker 3 (09:00):
I mean, everybody, nobody's getting that. And the other thing
that the comparison to everybody is making that we find
at Poey people making is they're spending a lot of
time going after a lot of political stuff, and yet we.
Speaker 2 (09:16):
Have chaos on the street. How is this right?
Speaker 3 (09:24):
And people are very concerned about their personal safety and
their the safety of their property and seeing all this
chaos in the streets and that and that the focus
of law enforcement seems to be political enemies that don't
make any sense to anybody. And that's the thing we're
hearing is, you know, I don't feel safe to go
(09:48):
take my kids to the park in the late afternoon,
and that this is what we got time, This is
what we're focused on. This is what law enforcements focused on,
you know, all the stuff coming across the bordering gangs
and fit and all. And that's the FBI focus is Trump.
I mean, that's the kind of stuff we're hearing from
(10:10):
independent type voters. They just don't understand why this is
so all consumpt all.
Speaker 2 (10:18):
Consuming of law enforcements attention and resources.
Speaker 1 (10:23):
No, I mean that makes a lot of sense. You know,
I live in Miami, I'm in New York City right now,
and I don't feel safe walking around, you know. And
then you've got Alvin Bragg pursuing, you know, this indictment
against Donald Trump when the city is really in shamble.
So to your point, you know, it doesn't make sense.
Trump obviously is just this interesting political phenomenon where you know,
he energizes a lot of people, but he also energizes
(10:45):
people against him. Does he energize more people against him?
Than he energizes for him.
Speaker 3 (10:51):
I think that there can be arguments made about that
in the past, but I think it really depends on
who they run.
Speaker 2 (10:59):
Because they run.
Speaker 3 (11:00):
Biden, or they run Harris, or are they run Newsome,
They're not running somebody who's powered one. Now, the Democrats
were smart, they were really smart, they'd go grab a
John Bell Edwards and Louisiana who has a very middle
of the road record, and they'd kind of run a
centrist Democrat like when they I mean at the time
(11:21):
Bill Clinton was, and they would they would wipe out
that that that middle.
Speaker 2 (11:27):
But the thing is it depends on who he's against.
Because what people.
Speaker 3 (11:31):
Also realize is they thought when they voted for Biden
that it was just I'm tired of all the drama
Trump brings.
Speaker 2 (11:40):
Uh, we just need a.
Speaker 3 (11:41):
Little more stability and a little more quiet. This guy
is kind of modern. He won't we change things.
Speaker 4 (11:45):
Well, they've seen that that that's not what happens when
you put a Democrat. Certainly somebody who starts acting on
the left in office. And Biden only won because the
perception that he's the moderate guy. He won't make a
big difference, he won't cause any big waves. Well, no
one thinks that Biden don't cause waves if he gets
(12:06):
re elected. No one thinks Harris wouldn't cause waves if
she got reelected.
Speaker 3 (12:12):
And no one thinks that that Govin wouldn't either. So
you have three people that will take the country in
the same direction nobody wants to go. And also when
people get scared, when people start fearing for their national safety,
then it changes their mindset. You know, they only wanted
(12:32):
Churchill when they were in a war. But when you're
but but when things look when it looks like, you know,
the walls are closed in and you got China and
Russia teaming up together and basically the access I mean,
you know, the beginnings of a third World war, access
powers coming together. Now, now's when you want the biggest,
baddest guy you can get. And if you've got to
(12:54):
put up a little attitude to have some strength, you
want it because American weakness is not getting it us anywhere.
Speaker 2 (13:00):
People know it, and people see it, and they feel it.
Speaker 3 (13:03):
They feel it from the way Chata seems you're pushing
us around the dumbest thing I've ever seen.
Speaker 2 (13:09):
That balloon because it is galvanized. The America public that
gets China more than anything I've ever seen, and people
are a little scared about that.
Speaker 3 (13:17):
And I also think when you look at the dynamic
of this campaign, you also have to look at the
difference between twenty twelve, excuse me, twenty sixteen and twenty twenty.
And the difference was Jill Stein, Jill Stein's margin, was
Trump's margin a victory, Well, in twenty twenty, there were
anybody's tooken up those middle votes, Well there will be
(13:38):
at least one in most states, soaking those up, maybe two,
and that is going to not hurt the Democrats, and
so you know, you get you get into a more
competitive freeway race. And that is also a way that
that Trump's personality could be minimized in his The anti
(14:00):
Trump vote to be split between people because there are
Republicans all across America who did not vote for Trump
who you know, maybe they're you know, they're it didn't
seem appropriate their country club or wherever they were and
all their friends, and they it was just good to
vote for Trump and that Biden wouldn't be fine. And
now they're like, oh my god, you know, my stock
(14:21):
portfolio is terrible. Everything is terrible, and their votes went
into the bottom call.
Speaker 2 (14:26):
But next time they may not. Some of them might
not vote for Trump, some of them will.
Speaker 3 (14:31):
But giving them somewhere to go, that doesn't just stack
them in the Democrat calum It makes it very competitive.
So the more challengers that are out there, the more
of the race goes. I mean, everybody had needs to
remember Bill Clinton defeated in the combat president with forty
three percent of the popular vote because the race was divided.
Speaker 1 (14:52):
That's a really interesting point about the third party possibilities
and about the Chinese balloon. You know, I obviously fly
pretty often for work, and I'm friends with one of
the waitresses at the airport in normally fly out of
in New York, and she had mentioned the Chinese bloom
to me because she knows where I work at Fox,
and so we started talking about that, so to your point,
(15:12):
you know, and she was talking about just how week
it made us look and how we're you know, So
to your point, I really do think that.
Speaker 2 (15:17):
Did and people are scared.
Speaker 1 (15:19):
Yeah, totally.
Speaker 2 (15:21):
I heard Trump deliver.
Speaker 3 (15:22):
Uh. You know, I grew up in South Carolina and
always been part of South count of politics, and so
I was at the South Kunta annual dinner this weekend
and Trump was the speaker, and one of the lines.
Speaker 2 (15:35):
Of like, you know, I'm the only guy that'll keep
you out of World War three. I think that line
is going to resonate with people. People do not want that.
Speaker 3 (15:46):
I mean people would like to you know, nobody, nobody
wants to get in some kind of worldwide conflicts of
nuclear weapons. Nobody wants that. And for him to say, hey,
you know, I'm the only kept you out of war.
I'm the only one that didn't start me thinking I'm
decelerated things. That message a tough guy who doesn't want
(16:08):
to fight, but be ready to have a strong defense
in a void to fight as a compelling mess to.
Speaker 1 (16:14):
Take a quick commercial break more with Robert on the
other side. Obviously, you know you'll get national polls, and
his support is very strong in the Republican primary. Are
you seeing that translate you know, obviously primary nominations or
state by state to win. Are you seeing that support
translate into the individual state contest as well?
Speaker 3 (16:37):
Yes, the state contest are breaking up, raking up a
little different each one, but in everyone I'm.
Speaker 2 (16:44):
Not only common out and as it current leads by
wild March.
Speaker 3 (16:49):
So absolutely, that is yes, definitely what we're seeing in
the in the different state and it you know, it's
just you know, one state you'll have somebody different leading
u you know, you have certain candidates doing better and
in places like I mean, Chris Christie's probably actually last
time I look, I feel like Chris Christie is doing
(17:09):
a little better in New Hampshire, and.
Speaker 2 (17:14):
Uh, Nikki Hayley was doing and Tim Scott.
Speaker 3 (17:17):
Were doing better in South Carolina in the Santa was
probably one of his low estates, and so those states
are are kind of checking up. But the commonality is
that Trump is his way ahead.
Speaker 1 (17:29):
Why do you think Desantas isn't registering with Republican primary
voters as much as you know, a lot of people anticipated,
including myself.
Speaker 3 (17:38):
There are a lot of people who convinced him to
run because it was his moment, and I know they
used the whole you know, Chris Christie should run against Obama.
Speaker 2 (17:45):
It was his time. Well, his moment was February and
March of this year. It was like he let the.
Speaker 3 (17:54):
Anticipation of him running build and build and build and build,
and then you're ready to deliver some kind of a
massive crescendo if you've let it build that much. And
then it was like the.
Speaker 2 (18:05):
Four hours all day I could talk about that. He
went and bought fireworks.
Speaker 3 (18:08):
And he opens up his trunk and You're like, are
you serious that's what you bought. You were excited, you
thought we were gonna be sitting fireworks all night. He
got a file of bottle rockets in the Trump and
I think it was like that, It's just he let
the expectation bid.
Speaker 2 (18:23):
I think if you'd have gotten in this ration, February
would be looking at a different race altogether.
Speaker 1 (18:27):
That's a really interesting point that makes a lot of sense.
You had mentioned that obviously crime and people just not
feeling safe, which I think is something that really just
registers with everyone who's listening. But you know, what are
the big issues you're seeing right now in pulling that
Americans are just concerned about that are top of mind.
Speaker 3 (18:46):
Economy is one, and the thing about the economy is
and this is what people are saying is, you know
there's this idea that we you know, with everything going
on with tum come about, there's two justice systems, so people.
Speaker 2 (18:59):
Feel like there's two economies.
Speaker 3 (19:01):
There is nothing that upsets a working family who had
to put last month's grocery bills on a credit card
more than to watching the news and having everybody say
the economy is improving, and they're.
Speaker 2 (19:14):
Like, for who, because they don't feel it at all.
Speaker 3 (19:19):
And so this idea that that we are moving into
almost a destruction of the middle class, that they're gonna
be a rich few elite who do well and then
everybody else is just going to have to, you know,
figure it out. It is kind of is what way
(19:39):
things are feeling, and so people need to They don't
feel like there's been major belief. They don't feel like
good things are happening.
Speaker 2 (19:49):
No matter how no matter how much the news.
Speaker 3 (19:51):
Says good things are happening, how employment is up and
all that kind of stuff, because what they know is
what we know is that, first of all, there's a
lot of people who aren't looking for jobs anymore. That
makes the unemployment numbers high, and there's a lot of
people who are doing jobs that are they're much capable
of much more just because you know, you used to
be running a branch of a bank and that, and
(20:13):
now you know you're managing a restaurant that you may
still have a job, but.
Speaker 2 (20:19):
You might make it half what you were making.
Speaker 1 (20:21):
There are a lot of issues culturally going on in
the country right now. You know, look at the transgender issue,
you look at some of the things kids are being
taught in schools. How do you see the culture wars
presenting themselves in sort of a general election? You know,
how does that all play out politically?
Speaker 3 (20:41):
Some of the Republicans who who are to tell me, they're, oh,
you know, you got too much culture war. I'm like,
you don't understand. Cultural war is what builds this army.
Without what's been happening recently, we would have the same
old people. But whether it was target, whether it was
by light, whether it is transgender athletes playing women's sports.
(21:05):
There are a lot of new recruits to this side
because of these culture conflicts. Uh, you know, from what's
being taught in schools, and all of a sudden, it
is one of the single greatest thing that will make
us more competitive with suburban women are some of these
(21:25):
exact culture wars. Because now that they're they're so they're
so upset about what's going on.
Speaker 2 (21:33):
In their schools that.
Speaker 3 (21:37):
They may they may look at the Republicans that they
you know, kind of return the nose on in the
path and go, wait a minute, these guys are standing
up for us, and these guys are for you know,
having our children. We tall kind of sex stuff when
they're in second grade, and so they're winning over new recruits.
Speaker 2 (21:58):
That nothing moves people to this column faster.
Speaker 3 (22:01):
I mean, how many how many people do you know
that we consider themselves non political who who have made
a personal decision.
Speaker 2 (22:11):
Maybe it's to avoid target, maybe it's.
Speaker 3 (22:13):
About bud light or something else that you said, Oh
I didn't really well as you cared about stuff like that.
I mean, that's been that's been happening all over the country,
and I think it certainly makes Republicans more competitive than
a general election with some of these suburban folks than
they have been in quite some time.
Speaker 1 (22:31):
And that's important too, because you know, one of if
Donald Trump is the Republican not many you know, one
of his areas of weakness has been with women, particularly
suburban women.
Speaker 2 (22:41):
Yeah, so I feel like that is that is a
real pickup for them.
Speaker 1 (22:45):
Looking at Joe Biden, how vulnerable is he right now?
Weird takeaways and looking at his numbers, I.
Speaker 3 (22:52):
Think he's the single most vulnerable president run for vice
president that I have ever seen.
Speaker 2 (23:00):
You know, I don't know much.
Speaker 3 (23:01):
About what Carter was facing, but it's that bad from
what I've been told people to understand that that race.
Speaker 2 (23:10):
I think that this guy's he's just he is in
real trouble. He's lost so much and I haven't figured
out yet. While the Democrats just don't do something different.
Speaker 3 (23:22):
I mean, why they don't just realize that this impeachment,
I mean, this whole Hunter Bobben thing is a gift
for them and use it to get rid of the guy.
Speaker 2 (23:32):
I can't forget why they would just go forward with him.
It doesn't make any sense.
Speaker 1 (23:36):
With break more in pulling.
Speaker 2 (23:40):
Well.
Speaker 1 (23:41):
And then you've got Kamala Harris, who is the least
popular vice president in American history. So there really isn't
anyone on the ticket right now that has a you know,
positive approval rating with Americans.
Speaker 2 (23:53):
That's true.
Speaker 1 (23:54):
Gavin Newsom's obviously waiting in the wings. You know, how
strong politically do you think he would be in a
general election?
Speaker 3 (24:01):
I don't think he'd be as strong as probably Gavin thinks,
because nobody looks at California as a success story. When
a governor runs, he has to he or she has
to sell their status as.
Speaker 2 (24:12):
A success story. And you've seen that at every governor.
Speaker 3 (24:15):
Who's had a successful presidency or who has been able
to achieve the presidency, they sold what they accomplished and.
Speaker 2 (24:21):
Governor and he can't do it.
Speaker 3 (24:24):
So you know, he thinks he can win this thing
on charm and looks alone and I just don't see it.
But I don't think it's possible. He's a very flawed candidate.
And that's why even if Republicans nominate someone very controversial
like Trump, it's all about who you run against.
Speaker 1 (24:41):
Robert, I've learned a lot from this conversation. I appreciate
you taking the time. Is there anything else you'd like
to leave us with before we go?
Speaker 3 (24:48):
Keeping on what's going on out there, and realize that
there's a lot of.
Speaker 2 (24:54):
People trying to put nonsense and trying to confuse you,
and pay attention.
Speaker 3 (25:00):
And make sure that when you get to get a
chance to hear directly from the candidate what they think
out of our own mouth.
Speaker 2 (25:09):
Take it.
Speaker 1 (25:10):
It's great advice. Robert, thanks so much for taking the time.
I really appreciate it. It's always great to catch up,
and I'd love to have you on periodically just to
kind of bring us updates as we move along here.
Speaker 2 (25:19):
I'll look forward to it those.
Speaker 1 (25:24):
Robert Kahali with the Trafalgar Group always interesting. Really appreciated
his perspective, and we're going to try to do these
check ins with him throughout the primary just to you know,
obviously these are just a snapshot of time, but it's
just helpful to kind of, you know, try to figure
out where things stand. So appreciate you guys at home
for taking the time to listen every Monday and Thursday,
(25:44):
but of course you can listen to it whenever you want. Podcast.
I want to think John Cassio and my producer for
putting it together. Feel free to leave us review on
Apple Podcasts. Love reading those, give us a rating Until
next time.
Host
Lisa Boothe
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