Episode Transcript
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MP Day, Degenerate's all kinds of file it up for
(01:51):
a Wednesday episode Sports Gamble when Money Wind Monica on
your host alt which Monica. If you've been enjoying the podcast,
please have scry rate review. We appreciate you here at
the volume sports diving in to all things NFL. We
are rocking and rolling again on a Wednesday. I am
going in back to firing on NFL preseason. You want
(02:17):
to talk about all in I can't even wait for
the regular season. I gotta fire on a little Washington
football team first, the Patriots Thursday night at dish Ronnie Rivera,
Bill Belichick, Hi, how are you? Then? I have what
I feel on my Degenerate Play of the Day and
(02:38):
Insane insane value for the man, the myth, the legend,
for the comeback player of the year. And we're getting
plus seven hundred on FanDuel. I can't even believe my
pencil Town eyes. And we're wrapping it up with a
team that I feel is an absolute Larry lock to
(03:02):
get to the NFL playoffs, and the juice ain't even
that much. So let's dive in. We're starting with our
lock of the day, and I am going with Rodney
Rivera in the Washington football team on the road over
(03:24):
the Patriots. It's a two point spread in favor of
Washington money line minus one thirty five. In a world
where preseason football nobody can kick, I will take the
Washington football team on the Monico money line as my
lock of the day. It's a couple of reasons why
(03:45):
I'm going with the Washington football team, but it starts
and it ends with the fact that Rivera, and here's
an exact quote, is gonna play his starters come tomorrow night.
Here it is quote. We're gonna play our guys on Thursday.
I'll tell you that right now. I mean, it's a
great opportunity. It's against a very good football team, well coached,
(04:09):
So I'm excited about that potential. I think that having
the three games and then having a two week prep
period for the first game, it's going to behoove us
to play the guys a little bit more, at least
that's my opinion. And quote, what did Bill Belly say
the goat quote week by week end quote in lieu
(04:31):
of if he's going with his starters. This is to
seven and nine clubs from last year. Washington football team,
of course, won the NFC East, hosted the Super Bowl
champion Tampa Bay Bucks, and actually covered the spread, believe
it or not. If I'm not mistaken, it was an
eight and a half or nine points spread and it
(04:55):
was covered by the captain, Dustin Hoffman, hook lit by
the Hook, die by Peter pay and Hook and Taylor
Heinecki was your starter against the greatest of all time,
Tommy Tampa. But here's the second reason. In the preseason,
I do believe where everyone's getting their rhythm, everyone's getting
(05:15):
the legs under them, the reps, the speed of the game. Again,
especially for the new guys, it's the better defenses that
often show out in these games. You look at it,
and that's kind of how I capped the Thursday Night
Hall of Fame game. I said to myself, Pittsburgh one
of three defenses to hold opponents to under twenty points
versus Dallas. Not in that category. Defensively speaking, No, Doc,
(05:38):
it comes down to coaching first. Coaching when it's backups
a lot of the time, fundamentally sound practices in preseason
when it comes to these games. So again, I'm not
gonna get into the weeds on why I'm going Washington
outside of the fact that they have the better defense.
This was the fourth ranked defense in points per game
last year. They gave up twenty points six so only
(06:00):
three other teams had better statistical defenses in terms of
points per game than the Washington football team. They were
second in yards per game and second in passing yards
per game. Defensively speaking as well, you think about Chase Young,
Jonathan Allen, Montes, Sweat Bostick, and then in the back
(06:21):
caboost Land in Collins. This is a four or five
arguably potential All Star starting defenders on this Washington football team,
and they're going against an offense that really hasn't played
with each other. They really have it. I mean, Cam
has a ton of new weapons, ton of new toys
(06:42):
to play with. Between John new Smith, between Kendrick Bourne,
they bring an aguilar They of course signed Hunter Henry
whole new bag of tricks there that to me is
gonna take a little bit of ton. Now, a lot
of guys are high on mac and cheese as cam
Calls and mac Jones. But again, and when it comes
to backups, when it comes to coaching, let me just
(07:02):
briefly read you Heineke and Kyle Allen's numbers last year.
Kyle Allen before we got concussed and in that natally
injury with his leg six ten yards on four touchdowns
and only one interception. Heineke in a playoff game was
twelve and nineteen for a hundred and thirty seven yards,
one touchdown, no mistakes. Now we're getting fits Magic under
center to start. Fits Magic, who is a gun slinger.
(07:26):
And yes, same argument you can make for the Pats.
He's new to the offense. However, he has been empowered
and couraged and told he is the starter. He's getting
the keys to the Washington football team. And we know
that Fitzpatrick as a sound veteran who's been in a
million different freaking offenses can handle this. On the Cam
(07:51):
Newton or Mac Jones side of things, who's starting who
isn't They don't know. Plus Belichick playing a little mental chest.
I just have to go with the Washington football team
on Thursday. I'm doing it. I'm not saying throw dinner money,
stake money, take out your girlfriend type money. But I
(08:12):
will take a little breakfast money because it's a little fun.
How do you not Washington over the Patriots. I'll take
the better defense. I will take the better collection of
three quarterbacks in terms of comfortability, continuity, and Ron Rivera
is a very good coach. I think they even win
(08:34):
the division again this year. There's a little value there,
do I dare say? And this is a team that
ended the regular season last year with a lot of momentum,
so quarterback controversy in New England. We know who's starting
in Washington. We're getting the better defense, easily, the better
front seven. That's enough for me, and arguably a minus
(08:55):
two pickup game to take Washington and minus one thirty five.
What my luck of a day. Let's get that moving,
all right. My degenerate play of the day. This is
bar Nonne, my favorite play on this podcast. I can't
(09:17):
bell leave with getting it. I honestly can't believe it.
I'm so excited, all right, Comeback player of the Year,
Christian McCaffrey, I can't even believe my eyes is plus
seven hundred on Fan Duel plus seven hundred to become
(09:38):
the comeback player of the Year this upcoming season. Who
is he in competition with? Dac is the favorite at
plus two hundred, say quon plus seven hundred and Joey
Burrow at plus seven hundred. Now here's the number one
reason why I'm going with McCaffrey, because in this kind
(10:00):
of a moment, Dak's better than Burrow. You wanna maybe say,
is it a fan element? What is really the xs
and os behind the scene of how we assess who
is the comeback player? There is there a little feel
good story in it is a quantitative and qualitative These
are guys that are injured, These are guys that are
(10:21):
out there back in So I did my research. First
thing I found out the other three I mentioned, Dak,
s Quan Burrow, all three of them have had gnarly,
gnarly surgery. Dak, you don't even want to get into
the ankle, just terrifying not to mention he's dealing with
(10:43):
something where the Texas Rangers pitching staff needs to come
in and talk to him. You don't love that Burrow
and say Kuan with a c L tears and Christian
and I made sure of it. No, sir, in juries. None.
He had a high ankle sprain, a shoulder and a
(11:04):
quad situation. He missed thirteen games last year, so not great.
But let's get in and remind you of who this
guy is, because if he does anything close to this,
Doc gets injured. The Bengals of six and ten, seven
and nine. Se Quan doesn't have the same year because
he isn't the past catching back that McCaffrey is. McCaffrey
(11:28):
is the best pass catching back in the NFL period,
on any given Pacino Sunday. All right, McCaffrey, let's remind
you accounted for forty four percent of Carolina's yards from
scrimmage in twenty nineteen, bar none, the highest in the league,
according to ESPN Stats and Info. Since he's led the
(11:53):
NFL and yards after the catch with just under two thousand,
he only has a two point six percent rear drop rate.
The lowest among running backs with minimum a hundred targets,
and we already know not to overwhelm you with too
many stats. He's only the third player in NFL history
(12:14):
to finish with over a thousand rushing yards and a
thousand receiving yards Roger Craig and eight five before I
was born in Marshall Fox before Chris Jericho bragged in
nine about why to check. This man also had nineteen
touchdowns the year he did that, a hundred and sixteen receptions.
(12:35):
He beat his own NFL record, I mean, Kama people.
And last but not Cherry on top dairy Queen Lease
two thousand, three hundred ninety two scrimmage yards, tops in
the NFL and third most in one season in NFL history.
These are the numbers this man has put down the
last time he was healthy. And I personally think with
(12:57):
Sam Donald. I don't love am Donald, but I don't
hate Sam Donald. I'm with Coward on this. I'm still
buying low and buying the dip on Donald's stock. And again,
the only guy that hasn't had surgery on this top
four list of fan dual candidates, Dac I think has
(13:19):
a pretty high potential rate of getting hurt. You could
say the same thing about any running back on any
given Sunday. But just to give you a little piece
of mind, last thing I'll say in terms of durability,
McCaffrey had not missed a game prior to last season.
He didn't miss a game. And in terms of touches,
(13:39):
three hundred and sixty four touches he averaged in and nineteen.
I mean seriously, nine hundred and twenty six touches in
his first three seasons without injuries. That's second in the league.
I don't need to sell you on anything more. McCaffrey,
where's our boy? Yeah, at let's go. We're getting seven
(14:03):
to one, a hundred down to win, seven hundred, eight
hundred back. Wham bam, thank you. Give me an old
school scheck coursin Christian McCaffrey comeback Player of the Year
plus seven hundred. Let's keep it moving. How do you
(14:30):
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(18:26):
and my prop shot play of the day. I'm not
liking it. I'm mcdonnold's loving it. The Tennessee Titans are
only minus one sixty on the juice. You're laying one
hundred sixty down to win one hundred back on the
Tennessee Titans to make the playoffs. A team that one
(18:47):
the a f C South at eleven and five, a
team that was five and three at home, even better
at six and two on the road, and they didn't
get worse. They got Julio Jones better. You could argue
Derrick Henry A. J. Brown and Julio Jones from a
(19:09):
three position skill position standpoint, are the dirtiest big three
in the NFL. I mean, honestly, Landry Beckham Chubb good
close second. Outside of that, I got a hard time
finding a fat three. And Tannehill had a very very
(19:32):
productive season. You could argue his best thirty three touchdowns,
seven interceptions, top seven in both categories through for almost
four thousand yards. This is a guy that's got a
career qbr A ninety two. He's sixty and fifty four
as a starter, and this is the third season. Now
he's getting stability and continuity under arguably a better organization
(19:55):
than the Miami Dolphins, where he spent most of his time.
Y'all also add this in they have arguably the least
competitive division due the fact that Wence is hurt with
the Colts, Lawrence and Urban are in a complete refurbishing.
There change it around the function Wite throwing a hail Mary,
(20:18):
putting Timmy Tebow in, and Deshaun Watson may not even
be playing football this season, let alone playing football for
the Texan too. Oh by the way, if you want
a piece of mind, there are the best odds for
the worst record in the NFL. Titans of minus one
five to win the division for context, and according to
the Athletic have the twenty first hardest schedule, so they
(20:42):
are closer to the Seahawks, as I spoke on Monday
too easiest schedule than they are the Steelers, who I
also spoke about on Monday, with the hardest schedule, and
they're in the a f C South. That means you
get the Jaguars twice, the Texans twice, and the Colts twice,
and they were about five hundred in division last year
if you look at quality wins last year to beat
(21:04):
Baltimore annihilated the Buffalo Bills and really only got one
or two times blown out. This is a team that
typically stays in and hangs in every single game. And
let me remind you, Derrick Henry has rushed in the
last two seasons for over yards and now in the
(21:28):
two thousand yard Eric Dickerson Club five point four yards
per carry on seventeen tugs, a hundred and twenty six
point seven yards per game. The guy, just like Nadiaz,
gets stronger as he gets hit later in the game.
You have to love a team that has a combination
(21:48):
of a power running back, playmaking wide receivers and a
quarterback Tannehill. Let's not forget it was a wide receiver
before the NFL. He has an incredibly underrated athletic quarter BacT.
We all know the man can dance and get on
his josh out a J. Brown and over a thousand
yards last year on eleven tugs and seventy receptions, and
now you're adding Julio Jones. I just think this is
(22:11):
worth the gamble. I love that it's only MIAs one
sixty and again. I had the Colts winning the NFC
South several podcasts ago. I'm not saying the Colts can
still win the division, but it's now with these injuries,
the Titans division to lose. So I will absolutely fire
(22:32):
right here, right now on IU guess eleven for a
team not one eleven games eleven eleven, make a wish
prop shot Tennessee Titans to make the playoffs. Oh, by
the way, Mike Vrabel certified Leader of Men. He's like
the productive Dan Campbell. He's gonna get down in practice
(22:55):
with you. But he's also gonna make sure it's all
about business. And you already know is a defensive mine.
He's gonna have this defense ready. And yes they may
have had a little bit of holes in their defensive game.
I expect always a Mike Vrabel coach squad to make
sure that they show up defensively. Still got some playmakers
(23:15):
on that side of the football worth the juice being late.
I got Washington over the Patriots, Christian McCaffrey plus seven
hundred comeback Player of the Year, Hollywood loves that Johnny
Trying might come back. And I'll take the Titans to
make the playoffs. That's it from me. Thank you for
(23:36):
tuning into another episode Sports Gamble with money Line Monaco.
Don't forget to subscribe rate review if you're feeling Johnny
Stockton generous. We always appreciated. Shout out the drums on
the ones and twos. That's it for me. Make sure
to hug your mothers. We'll see on all you. How
(24:04):
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