April 22, 2024 • 42 mins
Jake & BBD are trying to figure out if the Houston Astros are this year's version of the 2023 St. Louis Cardinals. They need to get hot SOON because the history of this kind of start to a season is not promising.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hello, and welcome to Waken Jake. Happy Monday, April seventeenth.
As we're in a little sports equinox eclipse. Gotta stop
using that word, but it's it's fun any any sport
you put on right now. If you're a if you're
a baseball die hard, you know you're obviously into the season,
watching your team every night and hopefully some of the
(00:22):
Sunday night baseballs are mixing in something else. If you're
a if you're a big baseball fan. But it's tough
because it's also playoff hockey time. Got my first dose
of that this weekend between our Rangers Bandwagon blue Shirts
is back. Some of you understand, some of you may
never good episode.
Speaker 2 (00:43):
Last night I watched.
Speaker 3 (00:48):
And then and this.
Speaker 1 (00:49):
Is for for spits and giggles a little bit. You
know we are we are with DraftKings. We talked some
sports betting a little bit, and I don't know bet responsibly.
There was a few, you know after the e Bay scandal,
which is that over or is it just getting started.
Speaker 3 (01:09):
I'm done.
Speaker 2 (01:12):
Got a conversation with my dad for a while this weekend.
He was like, so, Tani's just like never gonna be
asked about this again, right, seems that way. I think
I think it's over.
Speaker 3 (01:23):
He is a bad guy.
Speaker 1 (01:24):
Otani just hitting absolute bombs, became the Japanese baseball player
with the most home runs, passing Matsui as they rolled
the Mets yesterday. That's crazy to think Metsui was like
a really good power hitter for a period of time.
Hanni's like supposed to be hitting his prime. Mets actually
(01:45):
win that series and are kind of hot, Dodgers spinning
a little bit, and I do want the main baseball
topic today is I'm I keep doing this?
Speaker 3 (01:55):
What do we know? What do we don't know?
Speaker 1 (01:57):
I wanted to do fake out or breakout later this
week with Foolish and Jolly and make them pick a side.
Speaker 3 (02:06):
It might be.
Speaker 1 (02:07):
It's I still think it's too early, And I said
it's April seventeenth to April twenty second.
Speaker 2 (02:11):
That's that's on me.
Speaker 1 (02:12):
I got, I got got, But.
Speaker 3 (02:16):
It's still like too early.
Speaker 1 (02:18):
You're you're looking at I thought it was closer to
a month of games, but it really the Korea series
threw that off. We're we're a week away from a
month of games, and then you can truly look at
it and say, wow, this player had a massive month.
If a player, if a player has a big week
this week, they've had a good first month. So I
(02:40):
think I want to wait a little bit for that.
I want to dive into a little bit of who
is this year's Saint Louis Cardinals. So kind of not
a fun topic, and there's one team that clearly stands out,
but I want to dive into the past couple of
years of standings and where we currently stand to go
(03:02):
from there. I derailed myself from my DraftKings betting speech.
One of my buddies who will remain nameless. It's not nameless, Jeff.
That's Trevor's buddy, one of my buddies who will remain nameless.
But he's a very funny person.
Speaker 3 (03:16):
Uh.
Speaker 1 (03:17):
He texted, at what time did the thunder games start
last night? I think by the time it like got going,
I'm thirty or ten ten, they've been all like what
it's smart to do it to say, but they all
been like waiting for like when the next one ends,
and they.
Speaker 2 (03:34):
All keep getting pushed. That might have been supposed to
be a nine thirty ended up. I don't know.
Speaker 1 (03:39):
Well either way, Oh well, I can tell you. Right
around nine thirty one of my buddies texted me and
he said, Thunder Canucks to win parlay by your wife's
boyfriend something nice.
Speaker 3 (03:56):
And that text made me laugh.
Speaker 1 (03:59):
So I did place the bet on that, and I
found myself from ten pm to twelve pm peeled on
the Thunder in the Vancouver Canucks and it was actually
well the bet one, which made it a better time.
But for those of you that maybe don't know the
sports gambling thing or don't get it, yeah, we don't
(04:19):
want people to over extend themselves, but you put.
Speaker 3 (04:23):
A little cheese on that.
Speaker 1 (04:24):
The Predators Canucks game was a lot of fun playoff
hockeys here and watching the young Thunder deal with their
first kind of taste of the playoffs. And it's one
of those dumb sports things that you find yourself saying,
and I'm gonna find myself saying over years. But everyone's
looked at the Thunder as the one seed in the West,
and no one has the Thunder as the one seed.
(04:46):
Obviously the Nuggets just because they are so jokers awesome
and they're probably gonna run it back, and I don't know,
they have its legit shot to repeat, which it's the
year repeats.
Speaker 3 (05:00):
But there's just.
Speaker 1 (05:00):
Something about being a young team that nobody believes in
you until you do it. So I don't know if
you want to transfer that to baseball and some of
these teams hoping to win this year. That being said,
the Snakes made, Snakes made the World Series last year.
Texas came out of nowhere, So that's where baseball can
be a little different. I do think it's one of
(05:22):
the more fun things I do think basketball has is
that teams really have to get their lumps before they
can go to the next level. So we might end
with more Sports Equinox stuff just because it was a
fun weekend and it's gonna be a fun couple weeks.
But diving into the baseball and I'll start out wide
(05:43):
and I'll start to zoom in.
Speaker 3 (05:46):
Again.
Speaker 1 (05:47):
We're a little little under a month into the season
and some things are starting to sort out, some that
make sense, some that don't fully make sense. Yet are
Yankee have the second best record in the AL East.
They're coming off of last season which was very non
(06:07):
Yankee ish. Uh everone wondered, you know, would the Wan
Soto move be enough Stroman for Dugo, but Wan Soto,
you know what?
Speaker 3 (06:17):
Did that really look like?
Speaker 1 (06:18):
Two generational players back to back him and Judge.
Speaker 3 (06:22):
It's funny.
Speaker 1 (06:23):
The most recent comparison of that was o'dani and Trout,
which didn't work. Obviously a different franchise.
Speaker 3 (06:31):
But I don't know.
Speaker 1 (06:33):
I think no one really who came in bullish on
the Yankees this year.
Speaker 2 (06:37):
Everybody, even if you did, it was like we got
just guys. Scott burned too bad last year to be
like bullish. Like everybody was like, a, well, they don't
all go bad because he's had a lot of things
go bad that they thought would go good. The last.
Speaker 1 (06:54):
Got genuinely excited because of because of the stars and
just putting last year in our rear. I guess not
a lot of National Baseball people were like Yankees, Yankees, Yankees,
and then especially when Cole goes down before the season, Yeah,
but he's starting to throw. The Yankees are fifteen and seven.
Juan Soto has it. Not only does he feel like
(07:17):
a generational player, but it feels like with Vulpi maybe
taking a step and his effect in Verdugo being a
just really solid MLB hitter like the Yankees, Glabor Judge,
Rizzo haven't really gone. Stanton's had a couple moments and
that's kind of all we asked. So that's fine. But uh, yeah,
(07:39):
the Yankees haven't kind of been fully clicking their bullpen
feels with.
Speaker 3 (07:43):
I don't know.
Speaker 1 (07:43):
They're fifteen and seven. If Garrett Cole is back on
the mound at some point, and Judge, no one's actually
worried about but that has to click at some point.
Yanks are feeling good. Orioles are doing Orioles things. They're
fourteen and seven and it looks like the same recipe,
like their lineup is gonna chew you up. Meanwhile, they're
they're pitching just continues to be good, even though well
(08:06):
Gordon Burns obviously was a big change. But uh, you
know they had their Kyle Bradish news before the season.
No Bautista on the back end, they're the Orioles.
Speaker 3 (08:17):
Uh.
Speaker 1 (08:17):
The rest of the Al East is al easting. Everyone
is above five hundred again, uh, which it's a credit
to that division.
Speaker 3 (08:24):
Right now.
Speaker 1 (08:25):
The Rays are in last place. Jay's socks uh and
again good for the Red Sox. I think that's the
for the J's or the Rays. I don't know. What
concute conclusions you could truly draw from these games like
they like I like I said with uh, what am
I calling it fake out or shakeout? No? Fake out
or breakout? Shakeout? It's a music video. The Razor Jays
(08:52):
have a big week this week and they're on track
with some of the best teams this season. If they don't,
we'll talk about that in a second. And the red
injury bug has now hit them. They're the road Socks.
They're winning a ton of games on the road.
Speaker 3 (09:05):
Good for them.
Speaker 1 (09:08):
The Al Central the Cleveland Guardians have the best record
in the American League. Okay, we'll dive into that a
little more. Royals have gone off to a good start.
The Tigers are twelve and ten, so they're kind of
in that Middler area of hey, you know, that's for
what they're hoping to do this year. Like the Tigers,
first box they had to check was don't have an
(09:30):
atrocious start. And the Minnesota Twins kind of have done that.
They're seven and thirteen. They are digging a hole. Chicago
White Socks awful three and eighteen. If you haven't been
keeping up three and eighteen. The Ale West is a
little funky The Texas Rangers are twelve and eleven, the
(09:51):
Mariners eleven eleven.
Speaker 3 (09:53):
Make a wish.
Speaker 1 (09:55):
Angels are in third place at nine and thirteen. Then
it's Oakland, then it's Houston, Yo, NL Quick Braves are
the Braves.
Speaker 3 (10:07):
Phillies are the Phillies.
Speaker 1 (10:08):
The Mets are playing an awesome brand of baseball. They're
twelve and nine. Nationals are doing Nationals things. They just
took a couple from the Astros. Marlins massive disappointment. Six
and seventeen in the Central. Brewers are on top with
the Cubbies thirteen and nine, two games back. Reds are
(10:29):
twelve and nine. Pirates are back down to five hundred.
They got off to a hot start, they've been coming
down to earth again. And the Cardinals are nine and thirteen.
So yeah, I think Cardinals they need to finish strong.
Bad week this week. I'll get there in a second.
Dodgers are thirteen and eleven. Probably changes soon. We assume
(10:56):
the Padres are five hundred. They had left Dodger games
and some road trips. The Snakes are a game under
five hundred. The Giants are ten and thirteen, and the
Rockies are five and seventeen. Welcome back Colorado. They are
listed more on the Weekly Dumb this week than the
Talking Baseball sheet, So go Rockies Go. Why I did
(11:17):
all of that, I wanted to look at the past
couple years and see if we could draw any actual
conclusions from these starts. And the biggest thing, it's a
lot easier for a team to have had a good
start and come back than a team to have a
(11:41):
bad start and get better. So from last year, I
picked a somewhat random date. I put April twenty eighth
because that was close to how many games have been
played from last year. On April twenty eighth of last
year in the American League, Oakland was five and twenty two.
If you remember how their season ended, not great. Kansas
(12:05):
City was six and twenty one. I think you know
if you don't remember, their season was sneaky, horrid. I
think we were all shocked when we opened up their
team profile and projection. It's like, wait, they were that bad.
Chicago White Sox seven and twenty out of the gates
last year, very bad, no good season on their end,
(12:29):
Detroit Tigers nine and fifteen, Seattle Mariners eleven and fifteen,
Boston Red Sox thirteen and fourteen. Cleveland was thirteen and thirteen.
So all of those teams I just mentioned in the al. Again,
it's a small sample size, right, none of those teams
made the playoffs, which, Okay, maybe you're rolling your eyes
(12:55):
a little bit because you're like Kansas City, Oakland, the
White Sox Detroit. Sure, but Seattle got off to an
eleven to fifteen start, they came a game short of
the playoffs. Cleveland ran out of steam last year, Boston
ran out of steam, the Angels for the whole American League.
At this date last year, the playoffs had been sorted
(13:19):
except our New York Yankees, who were fifteen and twelve,
and they faded out. Historically historically, otherwise it was Houston
had a winning record, Texas, Minnesota, Baltimore, Tampa, and Toronto.
So with expanded playoffs, I think we've had this whole
(13:40):
notion of hey, you know, you put a couple good
months of baseball together, be a little above five hundred,
you're gonna be in this. The Diamondbacks had eighty four
wins last year. Last year, at this time, the American
League East was sorted except the Yankees falling out. That's
(14:02):
pretty insane in the National League start at the bottom.
The Colorado Rockies, yep, back at it. The Saint Louis Cardinals,
which remember we were doing the whoa Saint Louis? And
when are they gonna snap out of this? They're such
a good baseball team. It's coming Aeronato Goldschmid. You know
all these guys?
Speaker 3 (14:22):
Is it wainos last year?
Speaker 1 (14:26):
And I think before the season, before the season, I
did a like, I love this Cardinals depth. They're a
great baseball organization. They were ten and seventeen. You know,
the alarms were going off and we just didn't know
how how hard to chime them?
Speaker 3 (14:43):
Is that a phrase?
Speaker 1 (14:44):
The Nationals were nine and fifteen, Cincinnati was eleven and fifteen.
San Francisco Giants eleven and fourteen, The Padres were thirteen
and fourteen. And then we get to our first break
in the action. The Dodgers last year got off to
a four, thirteen and thirteen start. They went on to
do Dodgers things. But I thought it was of note
(15:05):
the bottom one, two, three, four, five, six teams from
last year they all missed the dance. So if you
are in that club right now, that's kind of a
nervous place to be. You know, current teams that are
in that club, the Houston Astros, they would be what
(15:31):
have we been saying about the Houston Astros, like it's
gonna happen. They're Houston, It's coming. They will be in
the ALCS. They've done that for seven straight years. They've
got more of a resume than anyone who's really had
a resume kind of in recent baseball history, like you
(15:55):
know Prime Yankees a little bit in the nineties, but
you know, the Houston Astros, what they have done regular
season to get to the dance and then in the
playoffs really tough to match. They are in that bucket currently,
they're seven and sixteen. That's a really bad start. Verlander
came back this weekend and they I believe they won
(16:18):
that game, but then they lost the next two to
the Gnats. They lost a series to the Nats, and
I know that, like it's baseball. The Nats have been
kind of pesky, pesky Nats buying all their stock for
next year. But Houston, it's really got to go. It's
really gotta start going.
Speaker 3 (16:39):
For them.
Speaker 1 (16:40):
And the Minnesota Twins. Yeah, the Minnesota Twins were penciled
to win the Central this year, like pretty pretty strongly.
There was a moment before the season where it was like, wait,
the Twins are losing Sonny Gray, who was second in
the cy Young they shed salary kent to Mayeta. I
(17:05):
don't know, he's been a staple there, but he was
banged up.
Speaker 2 (17:10):
Theoretically his ceiling is as like a rotation stabilizer for
the year. But that's important.
Speaker 1 (17:16):
It's important, And I don't know Maida's in the last
years with Minnesota. He was like their guy for a
little bit before they really went ham on pitching.
Speaker 2 (17:25):
He's a guy that can go on a month long run, yeah, easily.
Speaker 1 (17:30):
He can have a great half of a season. The
Minnesota Twins are seven and thirteen, right next to the Astros.
I didn't mention the Marlins because you've already erased them
from your season six and seventeen. They gone. The other
teams that are of note here, you know, the San
(17:53):
Francisco Giants, they're ten and thirteen. They ended up investing
a lot in their team this year. That again, the
expectations got raised really late, like really late. So Lair
Chapman Snell on top of Robbie Ray, Junghu Lee, like
they ended up spend paying a ton of money this
(18:14):
offseason to like go, so mark them down and then
I think that so with that, and this is where
I wanted to get multiple years because it's tough to
base them off one year. But twenty twenty two I
went back and I did this same exercise. National League, Cincinnati, Washington, Arizona, Chicago, Pittsburgh.
(18:41):
Your bottom one, two, three, four, five teams at this point.
Then they were not in the playoffs, And I think
if you do that year over year, and it gets
tricky because we just expanded the playoffs a little more.
So I didn't really keep going. That year, Atlanta did
come out to a nine and eleven start. In the
(19:07):
American League. Your bottom teams were Baltimore, Texas, Detroit, Cleveland,
White Sox, Boston, Kansas City. So that year Cleveland did
win the division. But that's still one out of the
bottom seven teams at this point in the season, one
out of seven in the AL, and then your bottom
(19:30):
five in the National League. So Houston is currently in
that box. Are they the one? I mean they they
technically wouldn't have been as qualified as where Atlanta was
in the example where Cleveland was in the example. But
(19:53):
I like you could you could very strongly say we
mentioned about DraftKings that one of these teams definitely will
not be in the playoffs. And I mean it's pretty
using my empirical data, which I don't even really know
(20:15):
what that means, and I don't have a lot of data,
like it would be pointing to that neither of these
teams are going to make the playoffs. Like I could
you could make a pretty firm actual argument where these
teams are in the standings they won't make the playoffs
seven and sixteen out of Houston's that's a real that's awful,
(20:39):
Like that's a whole if if they weren't Houston. Like this,
the Houston panic button hasn't been set off across baseball
at all.
Speaker 2 (20:51):
Right, Like everybody's been like a little laughing because most
people still don't like them, but they're all but everybody's
saying like laughing a little and sang like but they're Houston,
So like I'm scared of not gonna all the way
do that.
Speaker 1 (21:05):
Like if we turn on MLB Network this morning, they
would say, like, yeah, they're not doing like an Astros
disaster segment.
Speaker 2 (21:14):
But even, I mean even we talked a little bit
of sports gambling. Like yesterday I looked, I'm looking again now,
like Houston's still not plus money for them to make
the playoffs, so they're still favorited to make the playoffs,
to make the playoffs. The like about it's about even
because yesterday I saw seven and fifteen and I was like,
(21:34):
I don't know, they're Houston. Let's if you can get
plus money on them, just sneaking in and wreaking havoc.
And then it was it was still minus. Was like,
all right, I just gotta be scared.
Speaker 1 (21:46):
The Saint Louis Cardinals last year started off ten and
seventeen ten and seventeen. Houston is seven and sixteen. So
if they go three and one, they'll be caught up
to Houston or to Saint Louis from last year.
Speaker 3 (22:04):
And what was Saint Louis's problems.
Speaker 1 (22:07):
Saint Louis they were still hitting enough and by the way,
Houston is still hitting, which you can put that as
a positive thing or you can make that a negative thing.
Like they've been one of the best offenses in the
American League, and they've been losing, So are they going
to keep that up? Maybe again, they're Houston if that
(22:29):
hitting comes down a little bit. Saint Louis's problem last
year was pitching. They're starting pitching. It was what we
heard all off season. They need three horses. They ran
out of innings last year and they ran out of
production last year. Houston starting pitching has been one of
the big issues. Justin Verlander just came back. Hopefully that
(22:51):
could be massive for them. Other side of this, I'm
not saying this is happening. I'm actually not saying this
is happening. I have Justin Verlander on my fantasy team.
We're doing in the office this year, so I believe.
But what if Justin Verlander is old like Adam Wayne
Right one year, that'll happen Adam wayn Wright's last season. Obviously,
pitchers at different points of their career. But remember how
(23:14):
nasty Wayneo actually was.
Speaker 2 (23:17):
I mean twenty last year, twenty twenty two, it was
like a oh, first start was bad. Better than if
that out. It was a straight up, like awesome year.
Speaker 1 (23:24):
And then the next year and the other thing that
Saint Louis had last year that you couldn't really quantify
and maybe maybe they do have a stat. Obviously there's
bullpen stats. It just felt like whenever they needed a game,
it got blown. Whether it's Gagos or Helsley or Cabrera
(23:45):
or whoever it was. Whenever they had that Cardinals game
they needed to win the series or to like not
get swept, it just felt like the absolute worst moment
to give it up. What's been going on with hater
and a hater, a bray you and Presley? Yeah, Hater's
(24:07):
numbers are awful.
Speaker 2 (24:09):
Pressley's numbers are virtually the same.
Speaker 1 (24:13):
We got people screamed at us, and partially fairly so
because I don't know haters. Haters like the best. I'll
give them that.
Speaker 2 (24:24):
Outside of those three, everybody else in their bullpen their
numbers are objectively good. Don't know what the ViBe's been
around that, but so three the numbers are pad just
straight up.
Speaker 1 (24:35):
What Houston does have working for them is that no
one in their division has gone yet. The Rangers are
twelve and eleven, Mariners are eleven eleven. Make a wish,
which good for them? Half game out, like Mariners would,
I was tough on them, and they're they're sitting they're
(24:56):
sitting in a fine spot.
Speaker 3 (24:59):
Uh Houston.
Speaker 1 (25:01):
Third in batting average fifth and ops starting pitching twenty
sixth in ERA, twenty ninth in whip, bullpen twenty eighth
in ERA, twenty sixth in whip. And Yet I what
I heard about Saint Louis last year that really the
(25:25):
wheels started falling off. They were looking around the clubhouse
and kind of didn't know what to blame. It's kind
of like the It's kind of like the saying when
you're sick and you'd rather like know what the problem is.
(25:47):
It's like, oh, well, our our bullpen's been terrible. Let's
let's add a bullpen. Let's call up a guy. If
our bullpen turns it around, use guys in different.
Speaker 3 (25:58):
Spots, we'll be good.
Speaker 1 (25:59):
We'll be good. Oh you know we're not getting production
from the middle of our lineup. Okay, well, let's shuffle
a couple guys around, maybe move someone else to the
top of the lineup to spread it out.
Speaker 3 (26:12):
Saint Louis didn't know what their.
Speaker 2 (26:13):
Problem was by the end of the year, Like the
the offensive numbers on the garn't you couldn't point to
anybody and be like that's what the problem was. I mean,
got some guys were like lower than usual.
Speaker 1 (26:25):
They would counter back right down and they would say
pitching as a whole. But again there I think series
to series it wasn't necessarily the case. It was when
they needed to get that win, they couldn't get it.
And I don't know, I think Minnesota has already kind
(26:47):
of lost people a little bit. Like that's the Minnesota
Twins are eight games back of the Cleveland Guardians.
Speaker 2 (26:54):
HM, Like I know, like even when we were penciling
them in, I don't think we had them eight games
better than.
Speaker 3 (27:03):
And in theory that's fine.
Speaker 1 (27:05):
You know, you chip away through a season, good week,
you start cutting into that also not the Guardians are
playing kind of a fun brand of baseball. Naylor looks
really good. Jimenez has come up with a lot of
clutch hits for them. They're pitching. That's what Cleveland does.
They just kind of ran out last year while also
(27:25):
not getting a lot of offensive production throughout the lineup.
The Royals look better and the Tigers look better. So
for the Twins to climb, you currently have to jump
three teams. Everyone kind of looks at the Twins roster
now where coming off of last season, he was like, well,
they're the most talented team looking at that Twins lineup.
(27:49):
And that's where going back to where I kind.
Speaker 3 (27:51):
Of started with this.
Speaker 1 (27:56):
The bottom to the top stuff. Not a lot of
teams have done that. Like I mentioned a Guardians team
that won a week Ale Central.
Speaker 2 (28:07):
Yeah, when we were talking about that, one was like
going into that year was gonna be like, whoever finishes
above five hundred wins that division. And that's what Cleveland did.
Speaker 3 (28:17):
They won it again.
Speaker 1 (28:19):
The date I had on here, April twenty eighth, twenty
twenty two, they were seven and twelve. Let's see, when
when do they get hot?
Speaker 2 (28:28):
They had that like August resurgence and not caught the
Twins at the very end.
Speaker 1 (28:34):
Not to be dumb, they won their next three games,
which brought them to ten and twelve, which is a
lot more.
Speaker 2 (28:44):
By the end of by one month of games. Because
that season also started late, they were probably right at
five hundred.
Speaker 1 (28:51):
They got to fifteen and fourteen, so they got hot,
like right then.
Speaker 2 (28:56):
They ultimately made their first month fine.
Speaker 1 (28:59):
Like in that next week they got to fifteen and fourteen,
and we're set up to go. So I guess that's
that's what I'm saying, Like I'm I'm not banging the table.
Houston's dead, We've all everyone kind of has fallen for
that trap. In one of the past couple years. Remember
the COVID season they were playing kind of another finished right, everyone,
(29:22):
everyone's been ready Houston, trash cans dusty that COVID year,
they looked bad, they've been rolling. They need to go
soon because there's no other teams on the list that
have done this.
Speaker 3 (29:42):
Uh.
Speaker 1 (29:43):
And then I think the part I kind of have
ducked is that you can start off good and it
can fade. It's a lot easier to be good and
then be bad than to be bad and then be good.
Speaker 3 (29:58):
Is that obvious?
Speaker 2 (30:00):
You can you can hang on to your hot start
and go and just survive the rest of the way
and then land in a pretty good spot. You see
that a little bit last year that the all time
start and we're like sneaky, not impressive the rest of
the year.
Speaker 1 (30:14):
Last year, last year, the only true outlier was on
the National League side, Pittsburgh was eighteen and eight.
Speaker 2 (30:23):
Yeah, they had the awesome April.
Speaker 1 (30:26):
But each year there's one or two of there's one
or two teams each year there's like two teams that
are good and then fade.
Speaker 3 (30:37):
Every year.
Speaker 1 (30:39):
There's maybe one team that was bad and then figured it.
Speaker 2 (30:44):
Out and then can even like push it.
Speaker 3 (30:48):
Again.
Speaker 1 (30:49):
Last year's al the bottom one, two, three, four, five, six, seven,
eight teams at this point did not make the playoffs.
The Mariners were the closest. They were one game back
or however the al Wes sorted out last year two
games back at the end. I don't know, two games
(31:10):
earlier in the season. You could play that baseball dumb
game if you want one, two, three in the final
six in the NL. So I don't know, like if
you're in those buckets, I know, expanded playoffs and figure
it out and all that, but also no, also no,
(31:35):
the last year, a couple other teams that are in
the started good and faded bucket, Like the Mets were
fifteen and twelve. Remember New York Subway Series. How'd that
work out for us? Kubbies also got to a decent
start fourteen to eleven, and they didn't make the playoffs
(31:57):
last year. But you know, the Arizona Diamondbacks, we're fifteen
and twelve, and I you know what were we saying
about them at the time.
Speaker 2 (32:09):
Like, hey, good start.
Speaker 3 (32:10):
I don't know.
Speaker 2 (32:12):
I remember we had an episode the Dodgers. We had
an episode like late May early when we were like
we had a talk in baseball where like the title
was like time to start respecting them because it was like,
all right, two months stuff, that's real now.
Speaker 1 (32:28):
But yeah, and let's see in twenty twenty two.
Speaker 3 (32:37):
Good teams that faded. It looks like the.
Speaker 1 (32:41):
Giants got off to a hot start and that wasn't
a good Giants team, right, they finished five hundred. Now
I've got my tabs, tabs all shuffled. I don't know,
I think, I guess I was surprised to see what
I think is kind of an obvious statement. If you're
bad to start, it's really tough to be good. If
(33:05):
you're good to start, there's a chance you can still
be bad. That's a lot easier to happen in baseball,
whether it's injuries or playing over your skis.
Speaker 2 (33:17):
A little bit that those do happen every year. Somebody
play as well, but you can you can't hang on
to that and be in the mix, right.
Speaker 1 (33:27):
I mean, that's you know, going through some of these
looking at last year again, Milwaukee got off to a
really hot start, and I don't know, it's kind of
Milwaukee that you never really knew with that team, But
they're back at it Atlanta. Obviously, Tampa wrote out there
undefeated April twenty two and five. By the way, crazy,
(33:50):
how about them raise? You know, Baltimore got off to
an electric start last year. People didn't use that. People
were hoping it was the year for Baltimore, but nobody knew.
People weren't like predicting it. Confidently Texas Rangers were fifteen
and eleven. People didn't know about the Rangers. So like
the start matters. I think, I think player to player,
(34:13):
it's really hard to do anything right now. You could
still have an incredible season, you could have an awful season.
Teams like that's a lot of you need to go
at this point. Why is he always talking about data?
Who is this guy?
Speaker 3 (34:31):
Hey?
Speaker 1 (34:32):
Sound off in the comments? Why Houston is or is
not in the Cardinals? But there's kind of a lot
of parallels.
Speaker 2 (34:40):
Yeah, I'm I remain blown away by like the offense
player by players really good, A Bray who's having an awful,
awful time and Bregman's having a bad time, but like
everyone else is performing ad or above. But your expectations
would have been for them.
Speaker 1 (34:58):
Right, And then I just I don't know, man, Like
it's Pitching's just not their upcoming schedule. They've got a
few off days, which sometimes that can help a bullpen
or a team. Uh. But like three at the Cubs,
I don't know. Cubs are playing pretty decent baseball right now.
I can't tell you you're gonna win that series in Chicago.
(35:22):
They've got a two gamer at Corps, which, hey, even
if you win those, like, your pitchers are probably gonna
be pretty bummed out by the end of it.
Speaker 2 (35:29):
Don't know how good for morale that's gonna be.
Speaker 3 (35:32):
Uh.
Speaker 1 (35:32):
And then it's like a homestand versus Cleveland, who again,
Cleveland's off to an awesome start, So I just it
has to start pretty soon.
Speaker 3 (35:42):
And when is that? When is that?
Speaker 1 (35:47):
Because the Astros have six games left in April, what's
their record gonna be? If they go three and three,
that's ten.
Speaker 2 (35:56):
And nineteen, it's bad.
Speaker 1 (35:59):
What if they if they lose, that's it's a hole
that we really haven't seen a team in the past
couple of years dig themselves out of So I know
they are Houston and they do deserve more leash than
any other team. Like it's getting I think it's getting
closer than people are willing to talk about. Uh. And
(36:20):
maybe it's us being scared of Houston fans because some
of them are just mad at us. But baseball, baseball
is baseball. I don't know if it was if it
was like any other team, Like at this point we
were worried about the Cardinals.
Speaker 2 (36:38):
We were saying it took a turn.
Speaker 1 (36:40):
It was like, guys, we were saying, you gotta go now,
otherwise you're gonna be out of it, and they ended
up out of it.
Speaker 2 (36:49):
Uh, it's like that. Uh, the formula we figured out
with our Yanks. It's like the two good months and
survive all the rest. In any bad months you have,
it's another good one you gotta have. It's hard to
have three like awesome months in a year.
Speaker 1 (37:05):
Sure, road trips, injuries, hot cold, yes, and no Kitty Perry.
I saw Ann Juliet this weekend on Broadway. Is good.
So that's that's our Broadway Talk segment. We'll hit you
with a little again. Sports Sports Apocalypse season. NBA playoffs
(37:28):
are fun and got started. I think the talking points
that really have leaked out of them. Clippers gave the
Mavericks the business without Kawhi. Clippers had one of the
best streaks of any team during this NBA season. That
whoever wins this matchup is going to be such a
sexy pick because they're gonna take on the Thunder next
(37:50):
and again it turns into that veteran NBA stuff we
talked about for a little bit, that if Luke and
Kyrie end up moving on on facing the Oklahoma City Thunder,
or if the Clippers hard and Kawhi pg harden with
twenty eight points, huh, that one of those teams will
(38:13):
become kind of the Western Conference. I don't want to
say darling because that's kind of not what they are.
If okay See makes a run, they'll be a darling
because they're young and cute. It's interesting. And the Nugs,
I don't know. I think everyone wants Lebron and the
Lakers to put up a fight. Split in Denver, Nuggets
(38:33):
have won nine in a.
Speaker 2 (38:34):
Row something like that.
Speaker 1 (38:37):
Yeah, so that's not exciting. I think the storyline in
the East Nicks hold serf embiid look decent then banged
up his knee. The NBA people hours talking to it.
Everyone's just looking at him. Beiid if he picks up
power and strength as they go, that's scary. I don't
(38:58):
see it that way, and maybe it's my next blinders,
but I feel like, especially the way Embiid plays, I
feel like he's gonna get banged up every game. Like,
I don't think Embiad's going this way. I think Embid's
like I was pointing up for those audio only but
I feel I don't know I'm playing injury. God.
Speaker 2 (39:16):
Yeah, it's just kind of like an odd So every
year he's kind of in this spot, right, it's like, well,
if he survives this and is the healthy version of himself,
there's a reason they were thirty five and eight or
whatever the record is and games he played in the season,
and there's a reason they were up ten so quickly
(39:38):
when he came out hot.
Speaker 1 (39:40):
Yeah, it's like he's going Nick's nightmare start. Mbid just
looks like a beast.
Speaker 2 (39:46):
It's like, hey, try to close off every other valve
and see what happens with him just eating but the.
Speaker 1 (39:55):
Uh, the Celtics end up bullying the heat and I
think that's just gonna happen. I don't think heat culture
will be strong enough. But the other East story, the
Milwaukee Bucks just whoop the Pacers, which that you know,
Pacers beating the Bucks kind of kind of became assumed.
Giannis out everyone turning against Doc Rivers and Dame just
(40:21):
not having been real Dame this year. He goes nut job.
I think thirty five points on the first half. They
just blew the doors off the Pacers and what's turned
into an Eastern Conference. It's the Celts or bust. People
were saying that the Sixers, if they fully click, they
(40:42):
would be the toughest matchup for the Celts. I'll still
lean Bucks. I still think NBA has a big chunk
of like Damian Lillard's not gonna really give hit. This
feels rude. He's thirty three now, he's played a lot
of NBA, like Dame, saving some for the playoffs, and
(41:02):
like that's just the facts. That's just the fact. So
if they can get past this, Giannis can get healthy
at some point during this series and come back. If
your boss, and that's I think that's the bad man.
Speaker 3 (41:17):
We'll see.
Speaker 1 (41:18):
I would say this if you're a sports fan, turn
on the TV. Go The hockey is just awesome and intense,
and it just feels like a different brand of hockey.
Speaker 3 (41:27):
I don't know what it is.
Speaker 2 (41:29):
Playoff hockey is has been a thing.
Speaker 1 (41:31):
I know it's such a thing, but it makes me
a little mad, Like I just I don't get it.
I mean I do, but like I'll regular season hockey game,
I'm just not really putting it on. But a playoff
hockey game, it's almost like, no nonsense, Yes, I'm gonna watch.
I just watched the Canucks last night. There was a
(41:51):
gambling angle.
Speaker 2 (41:53):
Yeah, but like I'm flipping.
Speaker 1 (41:57):
The late night Nashville's Vancouver Canucks game that doesn't happen
in the regular season. Enjoy the sports apocalypse. We got
NFL Draft coming up. Yeah, so we've got two playoffs,
Baseball's rolling, NFL Draft. It's a beautiful time of the year.
(42:17):
We will see you guys Wednesday today, Wow, NFL Draft
this week.
Speaker 3 (42:24):
See you guys,
Hello, and welcome to Waken Jake. Happy Monday, April seventeenth.
As we're in a little sports equinox eclipse. Gotta stop
using that word, but it's it's fun any any sport
you put on right now. If you're a if you're
a baseball die hard, you know you're obviously into the season,
watching your team every night and hopefully some of the
(00:22):
Sunday night baseballs are mixing in something else. If you're
a if you're a big baseball fan. But it's tough
because it's also playoff hockey time. Got my first dose
of that this weekend between our Rangers Bandwagon blue Shirts
is back. Some of you understand, some of you may
never good episode.
Speaker 2 (00:43):
Last night I watched.
Speaker 3 (00:48):
And then and this.
Speaker 1 (00:49):
Is for for spits and giggles a little bit. You
know we are we are with DraftKings. We talked some
sports betting a little bit, and I don't know bet responsibly.
There was a few, you know after the e Bay scandal,
which is that over or is it just getting started.
Speaker 3 (01:09):
I'm done.
Speaker 2 (01:12):
Got a conversation with my dad for a while this weekend.
He was like, so, Tani's just like never gonna be
asked about this again, right, seems that way. I think
I think it's over.
Speaker 3 (01:23):
He is a bad guy.
Speaker 1 (01:24):
Otani just hitting absolute bombs, became the Japanese baseball player
with the most home runs, passing Matsui as they rolled
the Mets yesterday. That's crazy to think Metsui was like
a really good power hitter for a period of time.
Hanni's like supposed to be hitting his prime. Mets actually
(01:45):
win that series and are kind of hot, Dodgers spinning
a little bit, and I do want the main baseball
topic today is I'm I keep doing this?
Speaker 3 (01:55):
What do we know? What do we don't know?
Speaker 1 (01:57):
I wanted to do fake out or breakout later this
week with Foolish and Jolly and make them pick a side.
Speaker 3 (02:06):
It might be.
Speaker 1 (02:07):
It's I still think it's too early, And I said
it's April seventeenth to April twenty second.
Speaker 2 (02:11):
That's that's on me.
Speaker 1 (02:12):
I got, I got got, But.
Speaker 3 (02:16):
It's still like too early.
Speaker 1 (02:18):
You're you're looking at I thought it was closer to
a month of games, but it really the Korea series
threw that off. We're we're a week away from a
month of games, and then you can truly look at
it and say, wow, this player had a massive month.
If a player, if a player has a big week
this week, they've had a good first month. So I
(02:40):
think I want to wait a little bit for that.
I want to dive into a little bit of who
is this year's Saint Louis Cardinals. So kind of not
a fun topic, and there's one team that clearly stands out,
but I want to dive into the past couple of
years of standings and where we currently stand to go
(03:02):
from there. I derailed myself from my DraftKings betting speech.
One of my buddies who will remain nameless. It's not nameless, Jeff.
That's Trevor's buddy, one of my buddies who will remain nameless.
But he's a very funny person.
Speaker 3 (03:16):
Uh.
Speaker 1 (03:17):
He texted, at what time did the thunder games start
last night? I think by the time it like got going,
I'm thirty or ten ten, they've been all like what
it's smart to do it to say, but they all
been like waiting for like when the next one ends,
and they.
Speaker 2 (03:34):
All keep getting pushed. That might have been supposed to
be a nine thirty ended up. I don't know.
Speaker 1 (03:39):
Well either way, Oh well, I can tell you. Right
around nine thirty one of my buddies texted me and
he said, Thunder Canucks to win parlay by your wife's
boyfriend something nice.
Speaker 3 (03:56):
And that text made me laugh.
Speaker 1 (03:59):
So I did place the bet on that, and I
found myself from ten pm to twelve pm peeled on
the Thunder in the Vancouver Canucks and it was actually
well the bet one, which made it a better time.
But for those of you that maybe don't know the
sports gambling thing or don't get it, yeah, we don't
(04:19):
want people to over extend themselves, but you put.
Speaker 3 (04:23):
A little cheese on that.
Speaker 1 (04:24):
The Predators Canucks game was a lot of fun playoff
hockeys here and watching the young Thunder deal with their
first kind of taste of the playoffs. And it's one
of those dumb sports things that you find yourself saying,
and I'm gonna find myself saying over years. But everyone's
looked at the Thunder as the one seed in the West,
and no one has the Thunder as the one seed.
(04:46):
Obviously the Nuggets just because they are so jokers awesome
and they're probably gonna run it back, and I don't know,
they have its legit shot to repeat, which it's the
year repeats.
Speaker 3 (05:00):
But there's just.
Speaker 1 (05:00):
Something about being a young team that nobody believes in
you until you do it. So I don't know if
you want to transfer that to baseball and some of
these teams hoping to win this year. That being said,
the Snakes made, Snakes made the World Series last year.
Texas came out of nowhere, So that's where baseball can
be a little different. I do think it's one of
(05:22):
the more fun things I do think basketball has is
that teams really have to get their lumps before they
can go to the next level. So we might end
with more Sports Equinox stuff just because it was a
fun weekend and it's gonna be a fun couple weeks.
But diving into the baseball and I'll start out wide
(05:43):
and I'll start to zoom in.
Speaker 3 (05:46):
Again.
Speaker 1 (05:47):
We're a little little under a month into the season
and some things are starting to sort out, some that
make sense, some that don't fully make sense. Yet are
Yankee have the second best record in the AL East.
They're coming off of last season which was very non
(06:07):
Yankee ish. Uh everone wondered, you know, would the Wan
Soto move be enough Stroman for Dugo, but Wan Soto,
you know what?
Speaker 3 (06:17):
Did that really look like?
Speaker 1 (06:18):
Two generational players back to back him and Judge.
Speaker 3 (06:22):
It's funny.
Speaker 1 (06:23):
The most recent comparison of that was o'dani and Trout,
which didn't work. Obviously a different franchise.
Speaker 3 (06:31):
But I don't know.
Speaker 1 (06:33):
I think no one really who came in bullish on
the Yankees this year.
Speaker 2 (06:37):
Everybody, even if you did, it was like we got
just guys. Scott burned too bad last year to be
like bullish. Like everybody was like, a, well, they don't
all go bad because he's had a lot of things
go bad that they thought would go good. The last.
Speaker 1 (06:54):
Got genuinely excited because of because of the stars and
just putting last year in our rear. I guess not
a lot of National Baseball people were like Yankees, Yankees, Yankees,
and then especially when Cole goes down before the season, Yeah,
but he's starting to throw. The Yankees are fifteen and seven.
Juan Soto has it. Not only does he feel like
(07:17):
a generational player, but it feels like with Vulpi maybe
taking a step and his effect in Verdugo being a
just really solid MLB hitter like the Yankees, Glabor Judge,
Rizzo haven't really gone. Stanton's had a couple moments and
that's kind of all we asked. So that's fine. But uh, yeah,
(07:39):
the Yankees haven't kind of been fully clicking their bullpen
feels with.
Speaker 3 (07:43):
I don't know.
Speaker 1 (07:43):
They're fifteen and seven. If Garrett Cole is back on
the mound at some point, and Judge, no one's actually
worried about but that has to click at some point.
Yanks are feeling good. Orioles are doing Orioles things. They're
fourteen and seven and it looks like the same recipe,
like their lineup is gonna chew you up. Meanwhile, they're
they're pitching just continues to be good, even though well
(08:06):
Gordon Burns obviously was a big change. But uh, you
know they had their Kyle Bradish news before the season.
No Bautista on the back end, they're the Orioles.
Speaker 3 (08:17):
Uh.
Speaker 1 (08:17):
The rest of the Al East is al easting. Everyone
is above five hundred again, uh, which it's a credit
to that division.
Speaker 3 (08:24):
Right now.
Speaker 1 (08:25):
The Rays are in last place. Jay's socks uh and
again good for the Red Sox. I think that's the
for the J's or the Rays. I don't know. What
concute conclusions you could truly draw from these games like
they like I like I said with uh, what am
I calling it fake out or shakeout? No? Fake out
or breakout? Shakeout? It's a music video. The Razor Jays
(08:52):
have a big week this week and they're on track
with some of the best teams this season. If they don't,
we'll talk about that in a second. And the red
injury bug has now hit them. They're the road Socks.
They're winning a ton of games on the road.
Speaker 3 (09:05):
Good for them.
Speaker 1 (09:08):
The Al Central the Cleveland Guardians have the best record
in the American League. Okay, we'll dive into that a
little more. Royals have gone off to a good start.
The Tigers are twelve and ten, so they're kind of
in that Middler area of hey, you know, that's for
what they're hoping to do this year. Like the Tigers,
first box they had to check was don't have an
(09:30):
atrocious start. And the Minnesota Twins kind of have done that.
They're seven and thirteen. They are digging a hole. Chicago
White Socks awful three and eighteen. If you haven't been
keeping up three and eighteen. The Ale West is a
little funky The Texas Rangers are twelve and eleven, the
(09:51):
Mariners eleven eleven.
Speaker 3 (09:53):
Make a wish.
Speaker 1 (09:55):
Angels are in third place at nine and thirteen. Then
it's Oakland, then it's Houston, Yo, NL Quick Braves are
the Braves.
Speaker 3 (10:07):
Phillies are the Phillies.
Speaker 1 (10:08):
The Mets are playing an awesome brand of baseball. They're
twelve and nine. Nationals are doing Nationals things. They just
took a couple from the Astros. Marlins massive disappointment. Six
and seventeen in the Central. Brewers are on top with
the Cubbies thirteen and nine, two games back. Reds are
(10:29):
twelve and nine. Pirates are back down to five hundred.
They got off to a hot start, they've been coming
down to earth again. And the Cardinals are nine and thirteen.
So yeah, I think Cardinals they need to finish strong.
Bad week this week. I'll get there in a second.
Dodgers are thirteen and eleven. Probably changes soon. We assume
(10:56):
the Padres are five hundred. They had left Dodger games
and some road trips. The Snakes are a game under
five hundred. The Giants are ten and thirteen, and the
Rockies are five and seventeen. Welcome back Colorado. They are
listed more on the Weekly Dumb this week than the
Talking Baseball sheet, So go Rockies Go. Why I did
(11:17):
all of that, I wanted to look at the past
couple years and see if we could draw any actual
conclusions from these starts. And the biggest thing, it's a
lot easier for a team to have had a good
start and come back than a team to have a
(11:41):
bad start and get better. So from last year, I
picked a somewhat random date. I put April twenty eighth
because that was close to how many games have been
played from last year. On April twenty eighth of last
year in the American League, Oakland was five and twenty two.
If you remember how their season ended, not great. Kansas
(12:05):
City was six and twenty one. I think you know
if you don't remember, their season was sneaky, horrid. I
think we were all shocked when we opened up their
team profile and projection. It's like, wait, they were that bad.
Chicago White Sox seven and twenty out of the gates
last year, very bad, no good season on their end,
(12:29):
Detroit Tigers nine and fifteen, Seattle Mariners eleven and fifteen,
Boston Red Sox thirteen and fourteen. Cleveland was thirteen and thirteen.
So all of those teams I just mentioned in the al. Again,
it's a small sample size, right, none of those teams
made the playoffs, which, Okay, maybe you're rolling your eyes
(12:55):
a little bit because you're like Kansas City, Oakland, the
White Sox Detroit. Sure, but Seattle got off to an
eleven to fifteen start, they came a game short of
the playoffs. Cleveland ran out of steam last year, Boston
ran out of steam, the Angels for the whole American League.
At this date last year, the playoffs had been sorted
(13:19):
except our New York Yankees, who were fifteen and twelve,
and they faded out. Historically historically, otherwise it was Houston
had a winning record, Texas, Minnesota, Baltimore, Tampa, and Toronto.
So with expanded playoffs, I think we've had this whole
(13:40):
notion of hey, you know, you put a couple good
months of baseball together, be a little above five hundred,
you're gonna be in this. The Diamondbacks had eighty four
wins last year. Last year, at this time, the American
League East was sorted except the Yankees falling out. That's
(14:02):
pretty insane in the National League start at the bottom.
The Colorado Rockies, yep, back at it. The Saint Louis Cardinals,
which remember we were doing the whoa Saint Louis? And
when are they gonna snap out of this? They're such
a good baseball team. It's coming Aeronato Goldschmid. You know
all these guys?
Speaker 3 (14:22):
Is it wainos last year?
Speaker 1 (14:26):
And I think before the season, before the season, I
did a like, I love this Cardinals depth. They're a
great baseball organization. They were ten and seventeen. You know,
the alarms were going off and we just didn't know
how how hard to chime them?
Speaker 3 (14:43):
Is that a phrase?
Speaker 1 (14:44):
The Nationals were nine and fifteen, Cincinnati was eleven and fifteen.
San Francisco Giants eleven and fourteen, The Padres were thirteen
and fourteen. And then we get to our first break
in the action. The Dodgers last year got off to
a four, thirteen and thirteen start. They went on to
do Dodgers things. But I thought it was of note
(15:05):
the bottom one, two, three, four, five, six teams from
last year they all missed the dance. So if you
are in that club right now, that's kind of a
nervous place to be. You know, current teams that are
in that club, the Houston Astros, they would be what
(15:31):
have we been saying about the Houston Astros, like it's
gonna happen. They're Houston, It's coming. They will be in
the ALCS. They've done that for seven straight years. They've
got more of a resume than anyone who's really had
a resume kind of in recent baseball history, like you
(15:55):
know Prime Yankees a little bit in the nineties, but
you know, the Houston Astros, what they have done regular
season to get to the dance and then in the
playoffs really tough to match. They are in that bucket currently,
they're seven and sixteen. That's a really bad start. Verlander
came back this weekend and they I believe they won
(16:18):
that game, but then they lost the next two to
the Gnats. They lost a series to the Nats, and
I know that, like it's baseball. The Nats have been
kind of pesky, pesky Nats buying all their stock for
next year. But Houston, it's really got to go. It's
really gotta start going.
Speaker 3 (16:39):
For them.
Speaker 1 (16:40):
And the Minnesota Twins. Yeah, the Minnesota Twins were penciled
to win the Central this year, like pretty pretty strongly.
There was a moment before the season where it was like, wait,
the Twins are losing Sonny Gray, who was second in
the cy Young they shed salary kent to Mayeta. I
(17:05):
don't know, he's been a staple there, but he was
banged up.
Speaker 2 (17:10):
Theoretically his ceiling is as like a rotation stabilizer for
the year. But that's important.
Speaker 1 (17:16):
It's important, And I don't know Maida's in the last
years with Minnesota. He was like their guy for a
little bit before they really went ham on pitching.
Speaker 2 (17:25):
He's a guy that can go on a month long run, yeah, easily.
Speaker 1 (17:30):
He can have a great half of a season. The
Minnesota Twins are seven and thirteen, right next to the Astros.
I didn't mention the Marlins because you've already erased them
from your season six and seventeen. They gone. The other
teams that are of note here, you know, the San
(17:53):
Francisco Giants, they're ten and thirteen. They ended up investing
a lot in their team this year. That again, the
expectations got raised really late, like really late. So Lair
Chapman Snell on top of Robbie Ray, Junghu Lee, like
they ended up spend paying a ton of money this
(18:14):
offseason to like go, so mark them down and then
I think that so with that, and this is where
I wanted to get multiple years because it's tough to
base them off one year. But twenty twenty two I
went back and I did this same exercise. National League, Cincinnati, Washington, Arizona, Chicago, Pittsburgh.
(18:41):
Your bottom one, two, three, four, five teams at this point.
Then they were not in the playoffs, And I think
if you do that year over year, and it gets
tricky because we just expanded the playoffs a little more.
So I didn't really keep going. That year, Atlanta did
come out to a nine and eleven start. In the
(19:07):
American League. Your bottom teams were Baltimore, Texas, Detroit, Cleveland,
White Sox, Boston, Kansas City. So that year Cleveland did
win the division. But that's still one out of the
bottom seven teams at this point in the season, one
out of seven in the AL, and then your bottom
(19:30):
five in the National League. So Houston is currently in
that box. Are they the one? I mean they they
technically wouldn't have been as qualified as where Atlanta was
in the example where Cleveland was in the example. But
(19:53):
I like you could you could very strongly say we
mentioned about DraftKings that one of these teams definitely will
not be in the playoffs. And I mean it's pretty
using my empirical data, which I don't even really know
(20:15):
what that means, and I don't have a lot of data,
like it would be pointing to that neither of these
teams are going to make the playoffs. Like I could
you could make a pretty firm actual argument where these
teams are in the standings they won't make the playoffs
seven and sixteen out of Houston's that's a real that's awful,
(20:39):
Like that's a whole if if they weren't Houston. Like this,
the Houston panic button hasn't been set off across baseball
at all.
Speaker 2 (20:51):
Right, Like everybody's been like a little laughing because most
people still don't like them, but they're all but everybody's
saying like laughing a little and sang like but they're Houston,
So like I'm scared of not gonna all the way
do that.
Speaker 1 (21:05):
Like if we turn on MLB Network this morning, they
would say, like, yeah, they're not doing like an Astros
disaster segment.
Speaker 2 (21:14):
But even, I mean even we talked a little bit
of sports gambling. Like yesterday I looked, I'm looking again now,
like Houston's still not plus money for them to make
the playoffs, so they're still favorited to make the playoffs,
to make the playoffs. The like about it's about even
because yesterday I saw seven and fifteen and I was like,
(21:34):
I don't know, they're Houston. Let's if you can get
plus money on them, just sneaking in and wreaking havoc.
And then it was it was still minus. Was like,
all right, I just gotta be scared.
Speaker 1 (21:46):
The Saint Louis Cardinals last year started off ten and
seventeen ten and seventeen. Houston is seven and sixteen. So
if they go three and one, they'll be caught up
to Houston or to Saint Louis from last year.
Speaker 3 (22:04):
And what was Saint Louis's problems.
Speaker 1 (22:07):
Saint Louis they were still hitting enough and by the way,
Houston is still hitting, which you can put that as
a positive thing or you can make that a negative thing.
Like they've been one of the best offenses in the
American League, and they've been losing, So are they going
to keep that up? Maybe again, they're Houston if that
(22:29):
hitting comes down a little bit. Saint Louis's problem last
year was pitching. They're starting pitching. It was what we
heard all off season. They need three horses. They ran
out of innings last year and they ran out of
production last year. Houston starting pitching has been one of
the big issues. Justin Verlander just came back. Hopefully that
(22:51):
could be massive for them. Other side of this, I'm
not saying this is happening. I'm actually not saying this
is happening. I have Justin Verlander on my fantasy team.
We're doing in the office this year, so I believe.
But what if Justin Verlander is old like Adam Wayne
Right one year, that'll happen Adam wayn Wright's last season. Obviously,
pitchers at different points of their career. But remember how
(23:14):
nasty Wayneo actually was.
Speaker 2 (23:17):
I mean twenty last year, twenty twenty two, it was
like a oh, first start was bad. Better than if
that out. It was a straight up, like awesome year.
Speaker 1 (23:24):
And then the next year and the other thing that
Saint Louis had last year that you couldn't really quantify
and maybe maybe they do have a stat. Obviously there's
bullpen stats. It just felt like whenever they needed a game,
it got blown. Whether it's Gagos or Helsley or Cabrera
(23:45):
or whoever it was. Whenever they had that Cardinals game
they needed to win the series or to like not
get swept, it just felt like the absolute worst moment
to give it up. What's been going on with hater
and a hater, a bray you and Presley? Yeah, Hater's
(24:07):
numbers are awful.
Speaker 2 (24:09):
Pressley's numbers are virtually the same.
Speaker 1 (24:13):
We got people screamed at us, and partially fairly so
because I don't know haters. Haters like the best. I'll
give them that.
Speaker 2 (24:24):
Outside of those three, everybody else in their bullpen their
numbers are objectively good. Don't know what the ViBe's been
around that, but so three the numbers are pad just
straight up.
Speaker 1 (24:35):
What Houston does have working for them is that no
one in their division has gone yet. The Rangers are
twelve and eleven, Mariners are eleven eleven. Make a wish,
which good for them? Half game out, like Mariners would,
I was tough on them, and they're they're sitting they're
(24:56):
sitting in a fine spot.
Speaker 3 (24:59):
Uh Houston.
Speaker 1 (25:01):
Third in batting average fifth and ops starting pitching twenty
sixth in ERA, twenty ninth in whip, bullpen twenty eighth
in ERA, twenty sixth in whip. And Yet I what
I heard about Saint Louis last year that really the
(25:25):
wheels started falling off. They were looking around the clubhouse
and kind of didn't know what to blame. It's kind
of like the It's kind of like the saying when
you're sick and you'd rather like know what the problem is.
(25:47):
It's like, oh, well, our our bullpen's been terrible. Let's
let's add a bullpen. Let's call up a guy. If
our bullpen turns it around, use guys in different.
Speaker 3 (25:58):
Spots, we'll be good.
Speaker 1 (25:59):
We'll be good. Oh you know we're not getting production
from the middle of our lineup. Okay, well, let's shuffle
a couple guys around, maybe move someone else to the
top of the lineup to spread it out.
Speaker 3 (26:12):
Saint Louis didn't know what their.
Speaker 2 (26:13):
Problem was by the end of the year, Like the
the offensive numbers on the garn't you couldn't point to
anybody and be like that's what the problem was. I mean,
got some guys were like lower than usual.
Speaker 1 (26:25):
They would counter back right down and they would say
pitching as a whole. But again there I think series
to series it wasn't necessarily the case. It was when
they needed to get that win, they couldn't get it.
And I don't know, I think Minnesota has already kind
(26:47):
of lost people a little bit. Like that's the Minnesota
Twins are eight games back of the Cleveland Guardians.
Speaker 2 (26:54):
HM, Like I know, like even when we were penciling
them in, I don't think we had them eight games
better than.
Speaker 3 (27:03):
And in theory that's fine.
Speaker 1 (27:05):
You know, you chip away through a season, good week,
you start cutting into that also not the Guardians are
playing kind of a fun brand of baseball. Naylor looks
really good. Jimenez has come up with a lot of
clutch hits for them. They're pitching. That's what Cleveland does.
They just kind of ran out last year while also
(27:25):
not getting a lot of offensive production throughout the lineup.
The Royals look better and the Tigers look better. So
for the Twins to climb, you currently have to jump
three teams. Everyone kind of looks at the Twins roster
now where coming off of last season, he was like, well,
they're the most talented team looking at that Twins lineup.
(27:49):
And that's where going back to where I kind.
Speaker 3 (27:51):
Of started with this.
Speaker 1 (27:56):
The bottom to the top stuff. Not a lot of
teams have done that. Like I mentioned a Guardians team
that won a week Ale Central.
Speaker 2 (28:07):
Yeah, when we were talking about that, one was like
going into that year was gonna be like, whoever finishes
above five hundred wins that division. And that's what Cleveland did.
Speaker 3 (28:17):
They won it again.
Speaker 1 (28:19):
The date I had on here, April twenty eighth, twenty
twenty two, they were seven and twelve. Let's see, when
when do they get hot?
Speaker 2 (28:28):
They had that like August resurgence and not caught the
Twins at the very end.
Speaker 1 (28:34):
Not to be dumb, they won their next three games,
which brought them to ten and twelve, which is a
lot more.
Speaker 2 (28:44):
By the end of by one month of games. Because
that season also started late, they were probably right at
five hundred.
Speaker 1 (28:51):
They got to fifteen and fourteen, so they got hot,
like right then.
Speaker 2 (28:56):
They ultimately made their first month fine.
Speaker 1 (28:59):
Like in that next week they got to fifteen and fourteen,
and we're set up to go. So I guess that's
that's what I'm saying, Like I'm I'm not banging the table.
Houston's dead, We've all everyone kind of has fallen for
that trap. In one of the past couple years. Remember
the COVID season they were playing kind of another finished right, everyone,
(29:22):
everyone's been ready Houston, trash cans dusty that COVID year,
they looked bad, they've been rolling. They need to go
soon because there's no other teams on the list that
have done this.
Speaker 3 (29:42):
Uh.
Speaker 1 (29:43):
And then I think the part I kind of have
ducked is that you can start off good and it
can fade. It's a lot easier to be good and
then be bad than to be bad and then be good.
Speaker 3 (29:58):
Is that obvious?
Speaker 2 (30:00):
You can you can hang on to your hot start
and go and just survive the rest of the way
and then land in a pretty good spot. You see
that a little bit last year that the all time
start and we're like sneaky, not impressive the rest of
the year.
Speaker 1 (30:14):
Last year, last year, the only true outlier was on
the National League side, Pittsburgh was eighteen and eight.
Speaker 2 (30:23):
Yeah, they had the awesome April.
Speaker 1 (30:26):
But each year there's one or two of there's one
or two teams each year there's like two teams that
are good and then fade.
Speaker 3 (30:37):
Every year.
Speaker 1 (30:39):
There's maybe one team that was bad and then figured it.
Speaker 2 (30:44):
Out and then can even like push it.
Speaker 3 (30:48):
Again.
Speaker 1 (30:49):
Last year's al the bottom one, two, three, four, five, six, seven,
eight teams at this point did not make the playoffs.
The Mariners were the closest. They were one game back
or however the al Wes sorted out last year two
games back at the end. I don't know, two games
(31:10):
earlier in the season. You could play that baseball dumb
game if you want one, two, three in the final
six in the NL. So I don't know, like if
you're in those buckets, I know, expanded playoffs and figure
it out and all that, but also no, also no,
(31:35):
the last year, a couple other teams that are in
the started good and faded bucket, Like the Mets were
fifteen and twelve. Remember New York Subway Series. How'd that
work out for us? Kubbies also got to a decent
start fourteen to eleven, and they didn't make the playoffs
(31:57):
last year. But you know, the Arizona Diamondbacks, we're fifteen
and twelve, and I you know what were we saying
about them at the time.
Speaker 2 (32:09):
Like, hey, good start.
Speaker 3 (32:10):
I don't know.
Speaker 2 (32:12):
I remember we had an episode the Dodgers. We had
an episode like late May early when we were like
we had a talk in baseball where like the title
was like time to start respecting them because it was like,
all right, two months stuff, that's real now.
Speaker 1 (32:28):
But yeah, and let's see in twenty twenty two.
Speaker 3 (32:37):
Good teams that faded. It looks like the.
Speaker 1 (32:41):
Giants got off to a hot start and that wasn't
a good Giants team, right, they finished five hundred. Now
I've got my tabs, tabs all shuffled. I don't know,
I think, I guess I was surprised to see what
I think is kind of an obvious statement. If you're
bad to start, it's really tough to be good. If
(33:05):
you're good to start, there's a chance you can still
be bad. That's a lot easier to happen in baseball,
whether it's injuries or playing over your skis.
Speaker 2 (33:17):
A little bit that those do happen every year. Somebody
play as well, but you can you can't hang on
to that and be in the mix, right.
Speaker 1 (33:27):
I mean, that's you know, going through some of these
looking at last year again, Milwaukee got off to a
really hot start, and I don't know, it's kind of
Milwaukee that you never really knew with that team, But
they're back at it Atlanta. Obviously, Tampa wrote out there
undefeated April twenty two and five. By the way, crazy,
(33:50):
how about them raise? You know, Baltimore got off to
an electric start last year. People didn't use that. People
were hoping it was the year for Baltimore, but nobody knew.
People weren't like predicting it. Confidently Texas Rangers were fifteen
and eleven. People didn't know about the Rangers. So like
the start matters. I think, I think player to player,
(34:13):
it's really hard to do anything right now. You could
still have an incredible season, you could have an awful season.
Teams like that's a lot of you need to go
at this point. Why is he always talking about data?
Who is this guy?
Speaker 3 (34:31):
Hey?
Speaker 1 (34:32):
Sound off in the comments? Why Houston is or is
not in the Cardinals? But there's kind of a lot
of parallels.
Speaker 2 (34:40):
Yeah, I'm I remain blown away by like the offense
player by players really good, A Bray who's having an awful,
awful time and Bregman's having a bad time, but like
everyone else is performing ad or above. But your expectations
would have been for them.
Speaker 1 (34:58):
Right, And then I just I don't know, man, Like
it's Pitching's just not their upcoming schedule. They've got a
few off days, which sometimes that can help a bullpen
or a team. Uh. But like three at the Cubs,
I don't know. Cubs are playing pretty decent baseball right now.
I can't tell you you're gonna win that series in Chicago.
(35:22):
They've got a two gamer at Corps, which, hey, even
if you win those, like, your pitchers are probably gonna
be pretty bummed out by the end of it.
Speaker 2 (35:29):
Don't know how good for morale that's gonna be.
Speaker 3 (35:32):
Uh.
Speaker 1 (35:32):
And then it's like a homestand versus Cleveland, who again,
Cleveland's off to an awesome start, So I just it
has to start pretty soon.
Speaker 3 (35:42):
And when is that? When is that?
Speaker 1 (35:47):
Because the Astros have six games left in April, what's
their record gonna be? If they go three and three,
that's ten.
Speaker 2 (35:56):
And nineteen, it's bad.
Speaker 1 (35:59):
What if they if they lose, that's it's a hole
that we really haven't seen a team in the past
couple of years dig themselves out of So I know
they are Houston and they do deserve more leash than
any other team. Like it's getting I think it's getting
closer than people are willing to talk about. Uh. And
(36:20):
maybe it's us being scared of Houston fans because some
of them are just mad at us. But baseball, baseball
is baseball. I don't know if it was if it
was like any other team, Like at this point we
were worried about the Cardinals.
Speaker 2 (36:38):
We were saying it took a turn.
Speaker 1 (36:40):
It was like, guys, we were saying, you gotta go now,
otherwise you're gonna be out of it, and they ended
up out of it.
Speaker 2 (36:49):
Uh, it's like that. Uh, the formula we figured out
with our Yanks. It's like the two good months and
survive all the rest. In any bad months you have,
it's another good one you gotta have. It's hard to
have three like awesome months in a year.
Speaker 1 (37:05):
Sure, road trips, injuries, hot cold, yes, and no Kitty Perry.
I saw Ann Juliet this weekend on Broadway. Is good.
So that's that's our Broadway Talk segment. We'll hit you
with a little again. Sports Sports Apocalypse season. NBA playoffs
(37:28):
are fun and got started. I think the talking points
that really have leaked out of them. Clippers gave the
Mavericks the business without Kawhi. Clippers had one of the
best streaks of any team during this NBA season. That
whoever wins this matchup is going to be such a
sexy pick because they're gonna take on the Thunder next
(37:50):
and again it turns into that veteran NBA stuff we
talked about for a little bit, that if Luke and
Kyrie end up moving on on facing the Oklahoma City Thunder,
or if the Clippers hard and Kawhi pg harden with
twenty eight points, huh, that one of those teams will
(38:13):
become kind of the Western Conference. I don't want to
say darling because that's kind of not what they are.
If okay See makes a run, they'll be a darling
because they're young and cute. It's interesting. And the Nugs,
I don't know. I think everyone wants Lebron and the
Lakers to put up a fight. Split in Denver, Nuggets
(38:33):
have won nine in a.
Speaker 2 (38:34):
Row something like that.
Speaker 1 (38:37):
Yeah, so that's not exciting. I think the storyline in
the East Nicks hold serf embiid look decent then banged
up his knee. The NBA people hours talking to it.
Everyone's just looking at him. Beiid if he picks up
power and strength as they go, that's scary. I don't
(38:58):
see it that way, and maybe it's my next blinders,
but I feel like, especially the way Embiid plays, I
feel like he's gonna get banged up every game. Like,
I don't think Embiad's going this way. I think Embid's
like I was pointing up for those audio only but
I feel I don't know I'm playing injury. God.
Speaker 2 (39:16):
Yeah, it's just kind of like an odd So every
year he's kind of in this spot, right, it's like, well,
if he survives this and is the healthy version of himself,
there's a reason they were thirty five and eight or
whatever the record is and games he played in the season,
and there's a reason they were up ten so quickly
(39:38):
when he came out hot.
Speaker 1 (39:40):
Yeah, it's like he's going Nick's nightmare start. Mbid just
looks like a beast.
Speaker 2 (39:46):
It's like, hey, try to close off every other valve
and see what happens with him just eating but the.
Speaker 1 (39:55):
Uh, the Celtics end up bullying the heat and I
think that's just gonna happen. I don't think heat culture
will be strong enough. But the other East story, the
Milwaukee Bucks just whoop the Pacers, which that you know,
Pacers beating the Bucks kind of kind of became assumed.
Giannis out everyone turning against Doc Rivers and Dame just
(40:21):
not having been real Dame this year. He goes nut job.
I think thirty five points on the first half. They
just blew the doors off the Pacers and what's turned
into an Eastern Conference. It's the Celts or bust. People
were saying that the Sixers, if they fully click, they
(40:42):
would be the toughest matchup for the Celts. I'll still
lean Bucks. I still think NBA has a big chunk
of like Damian Lillard's not gonna really give hit. This
feels rude. He's thirty three now, he's played a lot
of NBA, like Dame, saving some for the playoffs, and
(41:02):
like that's just the facts. That's just the fact. So
if they can get past this, Giannis can get healthy
at some point during this series and come back. If
your boss, and that's I think that's the bad man.
Speaker 3 (41:17):
We'll see.
Speaker 1 (41:18):
I would say this if you're a sports fan, turn
on the TV. Go The hockey is just awesome and intense,
and it just feels like a different brand of hockey.
Speaker 3 (41:27):
I don't know what it is.
Speaker 2 (41:29):
Playoff hockey is has been a thing.
Speaker 1 (41:31):
I know it's such a thing, but it makes me
a little mad, Like I just I don't get it.
I mean I do, but like I'll regular season hockey game,
I'm just not really putting it on. But a playoff
hockey game, it's almost like, no nonsense, Yes, I'm gonna watch.
I just watched the Canucks last night. There was a
(41:51):
gambling angle.
Speaker 2 (41:53):
Yeah, but like I'm flipping.
Speaker 1 (41:57):
The late night Nashville's Vancouver Canucks game that doesn't happen
in the regular season. Enjoy the sports apocalypse. We got
NFL Draft coming up. Yeah, so we've got two playoffs,
Baseball's rolling, NFL Draft. It's a beautiful time of the year.
(42:17):
We will see you guys Wednesday today, Wow, NFL Draft
this week.
Speaker 3 (42:24):
See you guys,
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