April 24, 2024 • 35 mins
Jake & BBD are looking at MLB postseason and awards odds to see what Vegas thinks after almost a month of games.
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Timestamps:
0:00 Intro
3:50 AL Central
6:10 Brewers are Shocking
8:55 Rays
9:30 Seattle, Toronto, & Chicago Cubs
13:05 Cy Young Award
17:45 MVP Award
21:50 NFL Draft Preview
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hello, and welcome to Wake and Jake myself, big Baby
David talking some baseball, gonna get into the playoff odds
a little bit, some other kind of Vegas lines because
they tell a little more honest story than we do.
Sometimes they're playing with real money. So I was looking
at a couple teams odds to make the playoffs, and
(00:22):
I think there was some some interesting lines that you
may or may not expect. I don't know. And then
I want to check in Cy Young and MVP two.
So it's kind of like a one month check in
on some of the best players and teams while also
seeing what Vegas has to say. And some of the
numbers get cooked a little bit. And I was looking
(00:44):
at the Yankees are like the big ale favorites, and
I think that's just because more people bet the Yankees,
and that's that's how that they're always just a little juiced.
That's kind of just how that works a little bit.
But I think there's some interesting tidbits to be taken
out of it, not necessarily even from a gambling sense,
but more so on a baseball sense, and what the
(01:04):
people dealing with the money are seeing because they don't
mess around and then I will probably close with a
little bit on the NFL Draft, which I know not
a lot of you people come here necessarily for that,
but the NFL Draft is one of my favorite things,
just ever drafting. If you've seen any any of our
(01:25):
ancillary content, whether MiLB the show, even does Guts Count,
I love drafting.
Speaker 2 (01:32):
Yeah, I was about to say we made Captains League
so you guys could scratch a draft ditch.
Speaker 1 (01:39):
It's when I used to play video games growing up.
I would just do the franchises draft and then like
sim the.
Speaker 3 (01:45):
Games, maybe play with them once.
Speaker 1 (01:48):
It's one of those you know people, I'd tell some
people that and I'd get some weird looks. That's what
some of the weirdest looks I'd get from people as
a child playing a video game, but not playing the
video game anyways, going into the numbers a little bit
and always shout out DraftKings, and I wanted to just
(02:09):
pivot off where we last left off. When I was
talking to you guys the last time Monday morning, I
told you, like, someone needs to actually be ringing the
bell on Houston like their their season is is spiraling
pretty quickly by the way they did lose Game one
to the Cubs, seven and seventeen, Houston Astros ten games
(02:32):
under five hundred. It's April anyways, Vegas. So I was like,
last episode, I'm ringing the bell. Hey, I know, you know,
we don't have a ton of fans in Houston, but
shout out to all the fans in Houston because the
replies on the YouTube are awesome, because Houston fans are worried.
And so that was the first thing I checked. Right now,
(02:55):
Houston is a slight favorite to miss the playoffs. I
think it's one oh five to minus one oh five
to minus one ten. If you don't get that, I
mean that's pretty close to even. That would be betting
ten bucks to win, like nine dollars and eighty cents.
Little math there. Yeah, So that was a little bit
(03:17):
of confirmation for me. Everyone was scared. Nobody was saying
on MLB networker anywhere, like, oh, everyone was doing the
Houston's gonna be fine. They're Houston, their Houston. There's a chance.
There's also now a betting favorite chance that Houston is
to not make the playoffs. So off of that, I
(03:38):
wanted to go look in on some interesting teams just
to see some lines in numbers, uh that I don't
know jumped out and surprised me. So the ALE Central,
which has been one of the conversations of this year.
The Kansas City Royals and the Detroit Tigers are both
out of the gate. As we've talked about those teams
(04:01):
a little bit on this show, with the Twins kind
of floundering a little bit and kind of floundering a
lot of bit that I looped them and them in
with the Astros is a team that would really have
to defy the odds to make the playoffs at this point.
That leaves the AL Central pretty open. Now, Cleveland's gone
off to an incredible start, but Kansas City and Detroit
(04:27):
have also been doing well. I guess the surprising part
to me when I brought up the odds. The books
like the Detroit Tigers a lot more. The Detroit Tigers
to make the playoffs, so that's win the division or wildcard.
They're plus one fifty, so again it's it's not expected
(04:50):
at this point of the Detroit Tigers. Again, that would
be if you bet ten dollars, you would get like
fifteen in return. So it's a that's a pretty decent
pay I guess what surprised me was the Kansas City Royals,
who I think are off to just a good of
a start. They are literally fourteen and ten. I think
(05:11):
what's going on in Kansas City is arguably prettier than
what's going on in Detroit. Detroit got a big bump
before the season of people like wait, I kind of
like Detroit. I like this roster. The Royals are plus
two to eighty, so almost double the payout. So again,
I there's some money stuff involved here. There's also a
(05:33):
lot of algorithms in play that the casinos don't lose money.
That's kind of not how this works. But the Royals
are almost double the odds in a bad way to
make the playoffs where I think they are very similar
to the Tigers. I don't think, you know, maybe a
lean Scooble who we're gonna talk about him in a minute,
(05:54):
but Cole Reagan's has been really good. Both teams can
pitch a lot, Both teams have enough in their lineup.
I don't know. I think right now i'd pick those
teams out of a hat. So maybe if you are
a gambling person, the Royals would be the lean there.
The biggest surprise that I think might shock people a
(06:15):
little bit, or at least I know I was shocked
by it. The Milwaukee Brewers. The Milwaukee Brewers are out
of the gate hot. The offense is fully there, and
that's kind of been one of the things Milwaukee's been
missing forever. I've got a tidbit that I didn't know
I was gonna share on this program. I talked to
n Happ today, mostly business stuff, but it's always good
(06:39):
hearing from Happer, and you know, I'm me So there's
a little fluff. Cubs are looking good, there's gonna be
trickling into some baseball talk. You know, how are the
boys doing? And he's like, you know, we're good, We're
playing good ball. We're feeling all right. And I mentioned
to him, I was like, dude, how about milwake And
(07:01):
he's like he's like, yeah, man, He's like, they're they're hitting.
That's impressive. And he's like, he said he was like
with Corbyn Burns away, I was expecting them to pitch
a little less. He's like, they're they're still the same
pitching guys. And I'm not doing mets for clicks, which
(07:21):
was just a conversation in the office. But the Mets
just built their pitching lab a decade after Milwaukee.
Speaker 2 (07:32):
Hm.
Speaker 1 (07:34):
I mean, that's no comment, no comment. The Milwaukee Brewers
have been one of the stories of baseball this year.
I amo the fact that they are going how they
are going now. Like I talked about last episode, it's
a lot easier to have a good start and fall
off and have a bad start and come back. Could
(07:54):
Milwaukee fade? Yeah, I mean it's a lot of young
ballplayers that are breaking out, but you could spin that
both ways. Milwaukee to make the playoffs is plus one twenty,
which I am I'm shocked by, like with expanded playoffs
(08:14):
in Milwaukee's history in that division, and how good they've
looked this year. They're fourteen and eight. The Cubs are
a half game behind them. But I don't know it.
It feels different in Milwaukee so far this year because,
like I just talked about, they've always been able to
pitch a little bit. I think there's different degrees to it.
(08:36):
But man, they're really hitting this year that I couldn't
believe that. So if you are, if you are a
Milwaukee Hiver, is that what they call themselves? That was
the craziest number to me. A couple more quick ones
that I can point out to you before I get
to some player stuff. The Rays are plus one seventy
to make the playoffs. Again, that's a really good payout
(08:59):
for a team that consistently finds wins. The division's really tough.
The division's really tough. But if you are a Rays truther,
which some of them are, that's a pretty good line.
I'm not putting more on it because before the season
I put way too much on Rays over eighty four
(09:20):
and a half. Just got really confident in the Rays
for a little bit. So that's scary. Three teams that
jumped out the other direction. The numbers scare me just
a little bit. Seattle is minus one thirty five. Now,
(09:40):
that pairs pretty well with Houston falling out right, and
I've been all over that. Although the alias still looks
good and you know you can find the wins. Seattle
missed the playoffs last year. They're currently minus one thirty
five favorites to make it, which I mean, we all
get it right, Seattle, Seattle, they had seven straight quality
(10:04):
starts at one point. If the lineups does start to
do anything and we know Julio's gonna go. I think
he had a huge home run the other day. I
don't know. Minus one thirty five was just a little surprising.
And Toronto's also minus won twenty five, which just knowing
how hard the Al East is, I know they've started
to turn it on and I actually like Toronto, but
(10:26):
you know, to not get even pay for either of
those teams to make the playoffs, which I don't think
either of them are locks for. And I think we've
seen in the past couple of years that has Toronto
made the playoffs every.
Speaker 3 (10:38):
Year, not the last year.
Speaker 2 (10:41):
But did they sing it now I'm blanking they haven't,
like really so they.
Speaker 1 (10:47):
Wildcard wild card. They didn't make the playoffs in twenty
twenty one with ninety one wins, but before expanded.
Speaker 2 (10:54):
Yeah, those two teams specifically, it feels like.
Speaker 3 (10:59):
Find way to not make.
Speaker 1 (11:00):
The playoffs last few years. They don't have the benefit
of the doubt earned. Yeah, I don't know. I again,
I think when you're looking at this, when you're looking
at this from the gambling perspective, you know, what's the
best way to make money? Those teams kind of jumped
out as I was surprised in Vegas's confidence. Again, Hey,
maybe Vegas knows something we don't know. That's the whole
(11:22):
great game. That's how they always win. Team wise, those
in the Chicago Cubs. I mentioned I half a second
ago minus won sixty five to make the playoffs. I
don't know about that. You guys know I'm on the
Reds train. You guys know I just hyped up the Brewers.
(11:43):
I know everyone's kind of ready to move on from
Saint Louis because it's been a slow start. But yeah,
I don't know. I don't know. Pittsburgh's been okay. I'm
not sure they have the staying power they could, especially
if they call up that Paul Skeens guy, our guy
Jared Jones with another nasty start. I didn't know he
(12:05):
threw a hundred. He's got that, Yes, and the nicest
way to Jared Jones, who is nice and hot and everything.
He did not give off one hundred miles per hour vibes,
but like easy hunch, top of the zone, drippy man,
(12:25):
I guess him. Colin Stone. Just handsome guys with good
hair that throw really.
Speaker 3 (12:32):
Hard, breaking stuffs. What's great and awesome.
Speaker 1 (12:35):
I'm the opposite of all those.
Speaker 3 (12:38):
He's extending.
Speaker 1 (12:42):
Jared Jones, man, keep an eye on him. Really nice guy.
Uh those are the team ones that jumped out again.
I was a little shocked. Royals and Cubs like their
true playoff odds. I don't know. I guess I'm not
as bully on Happer's Cubs as I should be, And
maybe I'll regret that. This is where it starts to
(13:05):
get a little fun, because I wanted to look at
the big awards Cy Young and MVP. We do this
for Talking Baseball at the beginning of the year and
we throw out some of our award favorites and things
like that. With the Cy youngs, Spencer Strider was the
easy favorite in the National League. Gone see you, which
(13:30):
has the National League? Honestly, as a for me, it
wouldn't be a fly zone at all. Zach Wheeler, Freddie Peralta,
Logan Webb, Tyler Glass, Now, Zach Gallon, Dylan Cees. That's
your top six right now. Those are six really good
pitchers that have gone off to good starts, that can
(13:51):
do it for a full year like we've seen them. Hey,
you've probably got your guy in that group that you
believe in and I mean, hey, you start getting a
glass now plus nine hundred. If this is the year
he puts it together, sure, why not. But here's the point.
I want to make the National league. Those are six
somewhat bona fide arms that have had big years before
(14:14):
the American League. Here are your top cy young odds.
Corbyn Burns. Okay, Corbyn Burns has won it. He's with Baltimore.
Sure he hasn't really gotten off to a great start.
It's fine. Nothing that's tanking any chances, No, but you
know it's it's not like, Wow, Corbyn Burns al new
(14:37):
guy going nuts. He is tied for the best odds
with Tarik Schooble Derek like Derek Krek like Derek, I
always get it wrong, which that's one of those. Hey,
he kind of became a sexy pick before the season.
I think BBD had some Schooball stock same odds as
(14:58):
Corbyn Burns, which, hey, maybe it's one of the not
as familiar with your game as I should be. I
didn't know he's a gross lefty, but I've probably seen
one and a half Terrek Schooball starts like Derek. So Okay,
Corbyn Burns. Sure, I love him, Hang my hat on him.
School ball, all right, here we go. Then it's Pablo Lopez,
(15:24):
Grayson Rodriguez, Cole, Reagan's Joe Ryan. Like the American League,
it was kind of Garrett Cole, Kevin Gossman. Those were
two of your big favorites coming to the season. Gossman's
falling off pretty hard. Cole obviously got told to stop throwing.
(15:46):
He's starting to throw again, exciting for Yankee fans. But
like Garrett Cole currently has better Cy Young odds. How
about this, Garrett Cole hasn't thrown a pitch. He has
better Cy Young odds than Kevin Gossman. That's how Lee
Osman was out of the stretch this year. Geez, Garrett
Cole has better Young odds than George Kirby. Justin Verlander's
(16:10):
been hurt.
Speaker 2 (16:12):
I'm shocked by the number I'm seeing next to Luis Castile.
I know the numbers don't stick out right now. The
first three were bad starts, but not like the kind
that tank your chances and are going to ruin you
for a season.
Speaker 1 (16:24):
Him and logo or plus two thousand or so, depending
what website you look at. So Hey, I I guess
my for the award part of the conversation and for
the uh, if you are into gambling, if you've got
one of the horses, you do like there's numbers over there,
like Luis Castile, like you just said, you.
Speaker 2 (16:45):
Think he's gonna be nails the rest of the year.
He does lead the ale and strikeouts right now, like.
Speaker 1 (16:51):
Like that's comparable to Yama Moto in the National League
odds wise, and like Yalmoto almost can't win the cy
Young this year.
Speaker 2 (17:02):
He's kind of clinched not winning. Between between them, they
get a couple votes between the.
Speaker 1 (17:08):
Starts and innings limit. Like Yamamoto cannot win the cy
Young this year, Louis Castillo could almost handily.
Speaker 2 (17:17):
If he's just good the rest of the way. The
numbers will look amazing. As is they're fine. So I
mean his his e R is a four to four,
which is you know, it's the balance of innings, pitch
gr and strikeout award for the most part, Phipps to five.
He is right, I would not be worried about Louis Castillo.
Speaker 1 (17:39):
Maybe a little cheese there. Uh. The other one, I'll
hit quick m VP before we do a little Talking
Football hashtag AL MVP favorite. Oh so Soda s O
t O Sodo, which Soto has been great. I guess
(18:01):
so much has to sort out. And you know Sodo
is gonna.
Speaker 3 (18:04):
Be really good. He's not falling off.
Speaker 1 (18:07):
Like behind him. It's Bobby Witt Junior. Who Hey, if
the Royals, like I was talking about for their playoff odds,
if the Royals make the dance and Bobby Witt is
thirty homers, fifty steals or wherever his numbers land, he's
gonna have a really good argument. Mike Trout is in
the mix plus seven hundred. Look at Mikey, back at it,
(18:30):
Gunner Henderson, Jordan Alvarez. Uh, I don't know. I think
in the AL there's better. I guess I would tell
you there's pretty decent value to be found if you're
not in on Juan Soto winning the MVP, which let's
think about how crazy that is for a second. Like
Juan Soto one year on the New York Yankees MVP
(18:55):
before his free agent year, judge just do something like
that just wasn't his first year on the Yankees. I
don't know, I was. I was surprised by that. Soto.
I mean Soto doesn't have an MVP.
Speaker 3 (19:11):
Oh, he's gotten He debatably should have been the COVID year.
Speaker 2 (19:14):
There was like kind of four guys and right the
way the shuffle worked out, But.
Speaker 1 (19:19):
Right, his numbers were the Nationals. Weren't he that year?
Speaker 3 (19:26):
Voted that year? Specifically?
Speaker 2 (19:28):
It was like the Nationals bad So that hurt him
and and he missed he missed ten games because he
had a false COVID positive.
Speaker 1 (19:37):
Oh my god. Well, either way, if that happened, I
would be saying his only MVP is in the COVID year.
So if you're I mean, Wan Soto is in his prime,
He's on the Yankees, he's having a great April, and
April's been traditionally his worst month. So if you don't
believe in Wan Sota winning his first MVP, there's pretty
good value in the al. I just kind of talked
(20:00):
myself into the fact that Wan Soto is probably gonna
win MVP this year. That would be interesting. Where's that number? Land?
That was a fun that was a short around the office.
Did that go out?
Speaker 3 (20:12):
Yeah, I don't know if it's out yet.
Speaker 1 (20:13):
If that's out, yeah, what would your Maybe this should
be a recurring thing. What what was your guess? I
said fifteen for six hundred six. In my head, I've
got five point fifty.
Speaker 3 (20:27):
Certainly reasonable.
Speaker 2 (20:29):
Who knows I figured over fifteen years because he's twenty five.
Speaker 1 (20:34):
Oh hey, technically put a seven on.
Speaker 3 (20:36):
The board before was like a bargain.
Speaker 1 (20:40):
If Sodo wants to be ridiculous, he could probably get
seven oh one over forty years. Uh. That'll be fun
to check in on the by the end of the
year to see where that contract actually lands. Uh. And
the NL I the other final point I was gonna
make NL I think is ugly move Ronald Acunya, Tatis
(21:02):
Shohe Harper Olsen, Elie de la Cruz's stock is flying up.
I don't know. And L might be a blood bat
this year. I think Al's looking for a couple guys
to step up, whether that's a Gun or Henderson, Bobby
Witt the National League. That looks like MVP bloodbath.
Speaker 2 (21:27):
But if Mookie stays at short all year, Mookie just
hits like this, does the shortstop thing? That's the story.
Speaker 1 (21:35):
So uh, that was a little what's what's the money saying?
Segment by Jake Soreli that's why you guys tune into
this and when you're not getting your money tips from me,
we're talking NFL draft. Uh. The NFL Draft is one
of my favorite things in sports. Like I talked about,
(21:56):
the rumor mill just already flowing, is incredible. The talking
Giants guys, Bobby and Justin Pennock, Bobby Skinner, Justin Pennock,
they are they're giddy. Bobby Skinner, who's one of the
biggest guys you'll ever meet, was kind of giddy this morning.
(22:18):
He kind of came in the room and everyone was
bumping around a little bit, and like you know, the
Giants fans are getting different rumors every hour that they're
in on a different quarterback or they're in on someone else.
And it's just the beauty of the draft that people
spend hours and hours trying to figure out what's gonna happen.
There could literally be a trade for the two pick,
(22:40):
and the whole draft could go awry instantly. And now
these people that have been making plans for months, these
NFL executives and front offices have to audible on the
fly and sometimes absolute chaos insws. The Draft's one of
my favorite things going back to there's a couple of
years where the Minnesota Viking were late for their pick
(23:01):
so they got cut off, and it was just like, what, Hey,
how is that a rule be Vikings? That can't happen.
This is real life. You have one job. Teams have
gotten better about it, but better technology. When you're watching
(23:23):
the draft and you have that the pick is in
pops up and it's your team, or it's your pope,
your enemy team, or whatever it is. If you're a
sports fan, the draft is just incredible, incredible and a
couple things that you probably know that you should be
excited for. I'll give some takes around them. The quarterbacks
(23:45):
are fun. You're gonna see four to five in the
first round. Caleb Williams will go first. I'm not as
sold on Caleb as everyone. I hope it's a freezing
bad take. It's looked incredible. I I don't care about
any of the silly stuff that people are the crying
fingernail polish, I don't care. I've done both of those.
(24:09):
I know his team got worse WHOA, But there's not
a ton of QB prospects that are he played worse
this year than last year. The offensive line was horrible,
the team wasn't great, So it could be one of
those look back and laugh and maybe this is gonna
(24:30):
spin on my head because one of my things I
love is when quarterbacks face adversity every week because I
think if you're at some of the major if you're
at some of the major colleges and you're dominating the
O line every week, like it's a lot easier to
be a quarterback if you have better O line and
better wide receivers. There's a lot of guys that can
(24:50):
get the ball to someone. The NFL doesn't work like that.
So I'm not saying I'm out on Kleb. I think
the people doubling down on Kleb being the lock of
lock of locks, I'm against that. I think he looks
he looks good. Trevor Lawrence looked incredible coming out, and
Trevor Lawrence has been fine. The Urban Meyer time sucked,
(25:13):
and I do not hold that against him.
Speaker 3 (25:15):
He's taking steps.
Speaker 1 (25:17):
He's taken the step. People thought he was going to
take another step last year he kind of did not,
So we're we're gonna find out. I mean, maybe Trevor
Lawrence is gonna be incredible. Caleb. I'm as QB prospects go,
he looks pretty good, pretty damn good. I'm just saying
all of quarterback prospects, and this is one of Rosillo's things.
(25:37):
So maybe I'm just piggybacking off that so much. It's
less than a fifty to fifty hit rate in the
first round. We have no clue. So I just don't
have Calebin kind of that super lock territory that we've
seen with some qbs coming out. But it also it
doesn't exist, and I guess that's what I'm fading on.
(26:00):
I'm just fading on the concept of quarterbacks. I think
Jayden Daniels, who's probably going number two. I guess if
the gambling odds were better for Jaden, I would hit
him pretty good. I like him. He plays really fun.
There's something about his running style that's elusive. That's kind
of like they used to say it about Tiki Barber.
(26:20):
They said, Tiki Barber never took the big hit. Jaden
Daniels he's really good at avoiding it. So if he
can use his scrambling early on to get settled in
the way, he passes the ball incredibly two that one
of the bigger knocks on him was early on in
his college career he didn't like give his receivers a chance.
(26:41):
And I think he's gotten over that and he lit
it up last year. And I'm not the biggest NFL
tape guy. Everyone says his tape from last year is
better than Caleb Williams, which again just like my alarms
and censors that are going out because I love team
building and the risk that goes into it, and we're
going to try this and do this. Could we not
(27:04):
be here in two years and be like, well, you know,
Jaden Daniels their last year at college, he did play
better and he became the better quarterback. Like I that
is not a crazy statement in the world of qbs
at all at all. I don't know I'm in on Jaden.
(27:25):
I guess that's my statement. Drake May. I have no clue.
I hope the Patriots. I think the Patriots are going
to take him, mostly because they need a quarterback very badly,
and the quarterback also sells tickets. If they do trade back,
start the draft. Start the draft, whether it's a team
(27:50):
trading up for a quarterback. I would also love if
New England's just out of their dome and they took
Marvin Harrison Junior or one of the wide receivers. The
middle of this first round is gonna get electric because
someone's gonna fall in love with the quarterback. Whether it's
JJ McCarthy, it's probably JJ McCarthy. I guess bo Nix
(28:10):
is still in the mix, so as Pennix. JJ McCarthy
is the one that people. You can knock Pennix for
his injuries in some of his previous performance. Boone Nicks
you can knock for some of his previous performance. JJ McCarthy,
you're not knocking his previous performance. They just didn't need
him to do a lot, which honestly freaks me out
(28:33):
because he Michigan almost didn't need him, but when he did,
he stepped up. So I don't know, maybe there's a
leadership thing there. And if he was in if he
was in one of the spread offenses, would he have
lit it up. There's four quarterbacks that are probably going
top ten, and two of them statistically are going to
(28:56):
not be good.
Speaker 3 (28:58):
You're just straight up so.
Speaker 1 (29:00):
Kind of pick your two, and like, I don't know
if it's May and McCarthy are the second two picks.
I don't think that means I don't necessarily think that's
a safer choice. And the fact that we've got all
these quarterbacks make it a fun draft because you're more
familiar and it's franchise changing, Like at least four franchises
(29:24):
in the first round are going to think they either
have their new guy or they're going to be set
back another four years, which is crazy. And that's why
I don't want my Broncos to get bo Nicks, but
they're the only team link to them. Excited to see that.
The wide receivers are really fun in this draft. Neighbors
out of LSU Roma Dunse, who's just awesome. It shocks
(29:50):
me that there could possibly be two wide receivers that
go before that guy and Marvin Harrison Junior. And I
don't know, man, I'm stoked for the Cardinals. Like, yes,
Madden is a video game and it's not how football
is won, but no, it's pretty cool. Kyler Murray and
Marvin Harrison Junior just bawling out. Look, if you're a
(30:11):
kid in Arizona, times are sick. That's a highlight reel.
So I'm just again, I don't know what it means
football wise. I don't know how good Kyler is and
I don't think he can hold up for a whole season,
but that in and of itself is just fun. If
the Bears, the Bears have a chance to do video
(30:31):
game mode where they could draft Caleb and then one
of the wide receivers. A lot of mocks have them
taking o'doonsda. How sick is that? And by the way,
as I'm telling you, hey, maybe sell your Caleb Williams
stock a little bit. He's looking to fall into one
of the best rookie situations ever DJ Moore. They have,
(30:53):
they signed Keenan Allen, and if they draft one of
the wide receivers, they're all supposed to be enough that
I don't know. That's the video game. That's the video game.
Rock Bowers. The tight end is cool. There's offensive tackles
all throughout this draft. It's very much I keep referencing Madden.
(31:13):
This feels like a Madden draft.
Speaker 3 (31:15):
This feels kind of textbook.
Speaker 1 (31:18):
It's all offense, and I don't know, man, I love
I love all of it. I love reading the mock drafts.
I love reading the letter Gage grades. Make sure you
guys check in with the talking football guys throughout the weekend,
because they're gonna be live streaming a ton, they're gonna
be posting a ton of content. I might be popping
(31:38):
in at some point. We will see. I've always wondered,
I've always wanted teams. I don't want to say to
take it a little less seriously, but I've always wanted
teams to do more ridiculous things. Like if you were
a team and you only took offense and defensive line
one year, you'd probably have a decent offensive and defensive line.
(32:02):
Probably you'd probably get a good core in there. Like
if you drafted eight guys, say you picked up another
fourth round pick O line, D line, ON line, D line,
O line, D line, O line, D line, something like that,
would that not almost guarantee that you'd be better there?
Speaker 3 (32:21):
Hmm?
Speaker 1 (32:24):
Maybe that's Jakie.
Speaker 2 (32:26):
I guess you need one on each to like fully
fully hit, but the others are like at least six
starter level.
Speaker 1 (32:35):
I mean, you hold like eight O linemen and eight
D linemen, so I O line gets a little risky
with all those rookies, I guess.
Speaker 2 (32:43):
But yeah, that could be like that first year is weird.
But it's interesting Angels drafted a no hitter.
Speaker 1 (32:51):
Right, they did that, and it's like kind of working.
Speaker 3 (32:55):
They're seeing the fruits of that.
Speaker 1 (32:59):
And then the next year go cornerbacks and wide receivers again.
I feel like, if you do that, are you are
you gonna be too thin? I have no idea. No
one's ever tried. I mean they're breaking football or in.
Speaker 3 (33:14):
The other spots there's free agency.
Speaker 1 (33:17):
You could I guess they're your linebacker, Like I guess.
Speaker 3 (33:21):
Free agency being before the draft.
Speaker 2 (33:23):
If you because you did that and you were lined
up for this, it'd be a little bit projecting, Like
at least you'd be projecting, like first round, we're for
sure taking linemen and somebody might jump up to get
and get the guy.
Speaker 1 (33:34):
I guess your hand would be on them, your hand.
Speaker 2 (33:37):
Would We wouldn't have the element of surprise as much
as like NBA where draft comes first, or MLB where
it's like it's not based on who you just did.
Speaker 3 (33:48):
Gould be fascinating.
Speaker 1 (33:50):
Yeah, I think if you're going with that method, I
don't know how much the element of surprise works.
Speaker 3 (33:55):
I don't know what you need.
Speaker 1 (33:57):
Just some thinking outside the box sometime.
Speaker 2 (34:00):
Yeah, I guess if it could just be if anybody
wants one specific.
Speaker 3 (34:04):
Guy that might jump you up.
Speaker 1 (34:06):
Well, game you're playing landed in a funky spot. Make
sure you're watching playoffs sports these next couple of days.
Rangers Nicks not bad in New York right now. Huh
tomorrow is a crazy day.
Speaker 2 (34:20):
What are they doing? Well, Well, we've got same time
we have Talking Yanks recap night right and that's during
the Knicks. So that's that's breaking my brain by itself.
And NFL draft mm hmm, so that will be my accessory.
They're gonna be streaming, so I don't know if if
we'll have access to that room during all that.
Speaker 1 (34:42):
After the warehouse we all be zoom.
Speaker 2 (34:44):
It's also my it's also my brother's birthday and I'm
going to a dinner.
Speaker 3 (34:48):
Well his birthday's Friday. But just a crazy day.
Speaker 1 (34:52):
For goddamn sports apocalypse. I love it. Thanks everyone. Make
sure you're subscribing. I do the thing. We're at like
eighteen k do we get there? Let's see, I think
it was seventeen nine, so if I jumped it, I'm sorry,
it's seventeen nine. Subscribe.
Speaker 3 (35:07):
You need to get us there now.
Speaker 1 (35:08):
We need you have a good weekend,
Hello, and welcome to Wake and Jake myself, big Baby
David talking some baseball, gonna get into the playoff odds
a little bit, some other kind of Vegas lines because
they tell a little more honest story than we do.
Sometimes they're playing with real money. So I was looking
at a couple teams odds to make the playoffs, and
(00:22):
I think there was some some interesting lines that you
may or may not expect. I don't know. And then
I want to check in Cy Young and MVP two.
So it's kind of like a one month check in
on some of the best players and teams while also
seeing what Vegas has to say. And some of the
numbers get cooked a little bit. And I was looking
(00:44):
at the Yankees are like the big ale favorites, and
I think that's just because more people bet the Yankees,
and that's that's how that they're always just a little juiced.
That's kind of just how that works a little bit.
But I think there's some interesting tidbits to be taken
out of it, not necessarily even from a gambling sense,
but more so on a baseball sense, and what the
(01:04):
people dealing with the money are seeing because they don't
mess around and then I will probably close with a
little bit on the NFL Draft, which I know not
a lot of you people come here necessarily for that,
but the NFL Draft is one of my favorite things,
just ever drafting. If you've seen any any of our
(01:25):
ancillary content, whether MiLB the show, even does Guts Count,
I love drafting.
Speaker 2 (01:32):
Yeah, I was about to say we made Captains League
so you guys could scratch a draft ditch.
Speaker 1 (01:39):
It's when I used to play video games growing up.
I would just do the franchises draft and then like
sim the.
Speaker 3 (01:45):
Games, maybe play with them once.
Speaker 1 (01:48):
It's one of those you know people, I'd tell some
people that and I'd get some weird looks. That's what
some of the weirdest looks I'd get from people as
a child playing a video game, but not playing the
video game anyways, going into the numbers a little bit
and always shout out DraftKings, and I wanted to just
(02:09):
pivot off where we last left off. When I was
talking to you guys the last time Monday morning, I
told you, like, someone needs to actually be ringing the
bell on Houston like their their season is is spiraling
pretty quickly by the way they did lose Game one
to the Cubs, seven and seventeen, Houston Astros ten games
(02:32):
under five hundred. It's April anyways, Vegas. So I was like,
last episode, I'm ringing the bell. Hey, I know, you know,
we don't have a ton of fans in Houston, but
shout out to all the fans in Houston because the
replies on the YouTube are awesome, because Houston fans are worried.
And so that was the first thing I checked. Right now,
(02:55):
Houston is a slight favorite to miss the playoffs. I
think it's one oh five to minus one oh five
to minus one ten. If you don't get that, I
mean that's pretty close to even. That would be betting
ten bucks to win, like nine dollars and eighty cents.
Little math there. Yeah, So that was a little bit
(03:17):
of confirmation for me. Everyone was scared. Nobody was saying
on MLB networker anywhere, like, oh, everyone was doing the
Houston's gonna be fine. They're Houston, their Houston. There's a chance.
There's also now a betting favorite chance that Houston is
to not make the playoffs. So off of that, I
(03:38):
wanted to go look in on some interesting teams just
to see some lines in numbers, uh that I don't
know jumped out and surprised me. So the ALE Central,
which has been one of the conversations of this year.
The Kansas City Royals and the Detroit Tigers are both
out of the gate. As we've talked about those teams
(04:01):
a little bit on this show, with the Twins kind
of floundering a little bit and kind of floundering a
lot of bit that I looped them and them in
with the Astros is a team that would really have
to defy the odds to make the playoffs at this point.
That leaves the AL Central pretty open. Now, Cleveland's gone
off to an incredible start, but Kansas City and Detroit
(04:27):
have also been doing well. I guess the surprising part
to me when I brought up the odds. The books
like the Detroit Tigers a lot more. The Detroit Tigers
to make the playoffs, so that's win the division or wildcard.
They're plus one fifty, so again it's it's not expected
(04:50):
at this point of the Detroit Tigers. Again, that would
be if you bet ten dollars, you would get like
fifteen in return. So it's a that's a pretty decent
pay I guess what surprised me was the Kansas City Royals,
who I think are off to just a good of
a start. They are literally fourteen and ten. I think
(05:11):
what's going on in Kansas City is arguably prettier than
what's going on in Detroit. Detroit got a big bump
before the season of people like wait, I kind of
like Detroit. I like this roster. The Royals are plus
two to eighty, so almost double the payout. So again,
I there's some money stuff involved here. There's also a
(05:33):
lot of algorithms in play that the casinos don't lose money.
That's kind of not how this works. But the Royals
are almost double the odds in a bad way to
make the playoffs where I think they are very similar
to the Tigers. I don't think, you know, maybe a
lean Scooble who we're gonna talk about him in a minute,
(05:54):
but Cole Reagan's has been really good. Both teams can
pitch a lot, Both teams have enough in their lineup.
I don't know. I think right now i'd pick those
teams out of a hat. So maybe if you are
a gambling person, the Royals would be the lean there.
The biggest surprise that I think might shock people a
(06:15):
little bit, or at least I know I was shocked
by it. The Milwaukee Brewers. The Milwaukee Brewers are out
of the gate hot. The offense is fully there, and
that's kind of been one of the things Milwaukee's been
missing forever. I've got a tidbit that I didn't know
I was gonna share on this program. I talked to
n Happ today, mostly business stuff, but it's always good
(06:39):
hearing from Happer, and you know, I'm me So there's
a little fluff. Cubs are looking good, there's gonna be
trickling into some baseball talk. You know, how are the
boys doing? And he's like, you know, we're good, We're
playing good ball. We're feeling all right. And I mentioned
to him, I was like, dude, how about milwake And
(07:01):
he's like he's like, yeah, man, He's like, they're they're hitting.
That's impressive. And he's like, he said he was like
with Corbyn Burns away, I was expecting them to pitch
a little less. He's like, they're they're still the same
pitching guys. And I'm not doing mets for clicks, which
(07:21):
was just a conversation in the office. But the Mets
just built their pitching lab a decade after Milwaukee.
Speaker 2 (07:32):
Hm.
Speaker 1 (07:34):
I mean, that's no comment, no comment. The Milwaukee Brewers
have been one of the stories of baseball this year.
I amo the fact that they are going how they
are going now. Like I talked about last episode, it's
a lot easier to have a good start and fall
off and have a bad start and come back. Could
(07:54):
Milwaukee fade? Yeah, I mean it's a lot of young
ballplayers that are breaking out, but you could spin that
both ways. Milwaukee to make the playoffs is plus one twenty,
which I am I'm shocked by, like with expanded playoffs
(08:14):
in Milwaukee's history in that division, and how good they've
looked this year. They're fourteen and eight. The Cubs are
a half game behind them. But I don't know it.
It feels different in Milwaukee so far this year because,
like I just talked about, they've always been able to
pitch a little bit. I think there's different degrees to it.
(08:36):
But man, they're really hitting this year that I couldn't
believe that. So if you are, if you are a
Milwaukee Hiver, is that what they call themselves? That was
the craziest number to me. A couple more quick ones
that I can point out to you before I get
to some player stuff. The Rays are plus one seventy
to make the playoffs. Again, that's a really good payout
(08:59):
for a team that consistently finds wins. The division's really tough.
The division's really tough. But if you are a Rays truther,
which some of them are, that's a pretty good line.
I'm not putting more on it because before the season
I put way too much on Rays over eighty four
(09:20):
and a half. Just got really confident in the Rays
for a little bit. So that's scary. Three teams that
jumped out the other direction. The numbers scare me just
a little bit. Seattle is minus one thirty five. Now,
(09:40):
that pairs pretty well with Houston falling out right, and
I've been all over that. Although the alias still looks
good and you know you can find the wins. Seattle
missed the playoffs last year. They're currently minus one thirty
five favorites to make it, which I mean, we all
get it right, Seattle, Seattle, they had seven straight quality
(10:04):
starts at one point. If the lineups does start to
do anything and we know Julio's gonna go. I think
he had a huge home run the other day. I
don't know. Minus one thirty five was just a little surprising.
And Toronto's also minus won twenty five, which just knowing
how hard the Al East is, I know they've started
to turn it on and I actually like Toronto, but
(10:26):
you know, to not get even pay for either of
those teams to make the playoffs, which I don't think
either of them are locks for. And I think we've
seen in the past couple of years that has Toronto
made the playoffs every.
Speaker 3 (10:38):
Year, not the last year.
Speaker 2 (10:41):
But did they sing it now I'm blanking they haven't,
like really so they.
Speaker 1 (10:47):
Wildcard wild card. They didn't make the playoffs in twenty
twenty one with ninety one wins, but before expanded.
Speaker 2 (10:54):
Yeah, those two teams specifically, it feels like.
Speaker 3 (10:59):
Find way to not make.
Speaker 1 (11:00):
The playoffs last few years. They don't have the benefit
of the doubt earned. Yeah, I don't know. I again,
I think when you're looking at this, when you're looking
at this from the gambling perspective, you know, what's the
best way to make money? Those teams kind of jumped
out as I was surprised in Vegas's confidence. Again, Hey,
maybe Vegas knows something we don't know. That's the whole
(11:22):
great game. That's how they always win. Team wise, those
in the Chicago Cubs. I mentioned I half a second
ago minus won sixty five to make the playoffs. I
don't know about that. You guys know I'm on the
Reds train. You guys know I just hyped up the Brewers.
(11:43):
I know everyone's kind of ready to move on from
Saint Louis because it's been a slow start. But yeah,
I don't know. I don't know. Pittsburgh's been okay. I'm
not sure they have the staying power they could, especially
if they call up that Paul Skeens guy, our guy
Jared Jones with another nasty start. I didn't know he
(12:05):
threw a hundred. He's got that, Yes, and the nicest
way to Jared Jones, who is nice and hot and everything.
He did not give off one hundred miles per hour vibes,
but like easy hunch, top of the zone, drippy man,
(12:25):
I guess him. Colin Stone. Just handsome guys with good
hair that throw really.
Speaker 3 (12:32):
Hard, breaking stuffs. What's great and awesome.
Speaker 1 (12:35):
I'm the opposite of all those.
Speaker 3 (12:38):
He's extending.
Speaker 1 (12:42):
Jared Jones, man, keep an eye on him. Really nice guy.
Uh those are the team ones that jumped out again.
I was a little shocked. Royals and Cubs like their
true playoff odds. I don't know. I guess I'm not
as bully on Happer's Cubs as I should be, And
maybe I'll regret that. This is where it starts to
(13:05):
get a little fun, because I wanted to look at
the big awards Cy Young and MVP. We do this
for Talking Baseball at the beginning of the year and
we throw out some of our award favorites and things
like that. With the Cy youngs, Spencer Strider was the
easy favorite in the National League. Gone see you, which
(13:30):
has the National League? Honestly, as a for me, it
wouldn't be a fly zone at all. Zach Wheeler, Freddie Peralta,
Logan Webb, Tyler Glass, Now, Zach Gallon, Dylan Cees. That's
your top six right now. Those are six really good
pitchers that have gone off to good starts, that can
(13:51):
do it for a full year like we've seen them. Hey,
you've probably got your guy in that group that you
believe in and I mean, hey, you start getting a
glass now plus nine hundred. If this is the year
he puts it together, sure, why not. But here's the point.
I want to make the National league. Those are six
somewhat bona fide arms that have had big years before
(14:14):
the American League. Here are your top cy young odds.
Corbyn Burns. Okay, Corbyn Burns has won it. He's with Baltimore.
Sure he hasn't really gotten off to a great start.
It's fine. Nothing that's tanking any chances, No, but you
know it's it's not like, Wow, Corbyn Burns al new
(14:37):
guy going nuts. He is tied for the best odds
with Tarik Schooble Derek like Derek Krek like Derek, I
always get it wrong, which that's one of those. Hey,
he kind of became a sexy pick before the season.
I think BBD had some Schooball stock same odds as
(14:58):
Corbyn Burns, which, hey, maybe it's one of the not
as familiar with your game as I should be. I
didn't know he's a gross lefty, but I've probably seen
one and a half Terrek Schooball starts like Derek. So Okay,
Corbyn Burns. Sure, I love him, Hang my hat on him.
School ball, all right, here we go. Then it's Pablo Lopez,
(15:24):
Grayson Rodriguez, Cole, Reagan's Joe Ryan. Like the American League,
it was kind of Garrett Cole, Kevin Gossman. Those were
two of your big favorites coming to the season. Gossman's
falling off pretty hard. Cole obviously got told to stop throwing.
(15:46):
He's starting to throw again, exciting for Yankee fans. But
like Garrett Cole currently has better Cy Young odds. How
about this, Garrett Cole hasn't thrown a pitch. He has
better Cy Young odds than Kevin Gossman. That's how Lee
Osman was out of the stretch this year. Geez, Garrett
Cole has better Young odds than George Kirby. Justin Verlander's
(16:10):
been hurt.
Speaker 2 (16:12):
I'm shocked by the number I'm seeing next to Luis Castile.
I know the numbers don't stick out right now. The
first three were bad starts, but not like the kind
that tank your chances and are going to ruin you
for a season.
Speaker 1 (16:24):
Him and logo or plus two thousand or so, depending
what website you look at. So Hey, I I guess
my for the award part of the conversation and for
the uh, if you are into gambling, if you've got
one of the horses, you do like there's numbers over there,
like Luis Castile, like you just said, you.
Speaker 2 (16:45):
Think he's gonna be nails the rest of the year.
He does lead the ale and strikeouts right now, like.
Speaker 1 (16:51):
Like that's comparable to Yama Moto in the National League
odds wise, and like Yalmoto almost can't win the cy
Young this year.
Speaker 2 (17:02):
He's kind of clinched not winning. Between between them, they
get a couple votes between the.
Speaker 1 (17:08):
Starts and innings limit. Like Yamamoto cannot win the cy
Young this year, Louis Castillo could almost handily.
Speaker 2 (17:17):
If he's just good the rest of the way. The
numbers will look amazing. As is they're fine. So I
mean his his e R is a four to four,
which is you know, it's the balance of innings, pitch
gr and strikeout award for the most part, Phipps to five.
He is right, I would not be worried about Louis Castillo.
Speaker 1 (17:39):
Maybe a little cheese there. Uh. The other one, I'll
hit quick m VP before we do a little Talking
Football hashtag AL MVP favorite. Oh so Soda s O
t O Sodo, which Soto has been great. I guess
(18:01):
so much has to sort out. And you know Sodo
is gonna.
Speaker 3 (18:04):
Be really good. He's not falling off.
Speaker 1 (18:07):
Like behind him. It's Bobby Witt Junior. Who Hey, if
the Royals, like I was talking about for their playoff odds,
if the Royals make the dance and Bobby Witt is
thirty homers, fifty steals or wherever his numbers land, he's
gonna have a really good argument. Mike Trout is in
the mix plus seven hundred. Look at Mikey, back at it,
(18:30):
Gunner Henderson, Jordan Alvarez. Uh, I don't know. I think
in the AL there's better. I guess I would tell
you there's pretty decent value to be found if you're
not in on Juan Soto winning the MVP, which let's
think about how crazy that is for a second. Like
Juan Soto one year on the New York Yankees MVP
(18:55):
before his free agent year, judge just do something like
that just wasn't his first year on the Yankees. I
don't know, I was. I was surprised by that. Soto.
I mean Soto doesn't have an MVP.
Speaker 3 (19:11):
Oh, he's gotten He debatably should have been the COVID year.
Speaker 2 (19:14):
There was like kind of four guys and right the
way the shuffle worked out, But.
Speaker 1 (19:19):
Right, his numbers were the Nationals. Weren't he that year?
Speaker 3 (19:26):
Voted that year? Specifically?
Speaker 2 (19:28):
It was like the Nationals bad So that hurt him
and and he missed he missed ten games because he
had a false COVID positive.
Speaker 1 (19:37):
Oh my god. Well, either way, if that happened, I
would be saying his only MVP is in the COVID year.
So if you're I mean, Wan Soto is in his prime,
He's on the Yankees, he's having a great April, and
April's been traditionally his worst month. So if you don't
believe in Wan Sota winning his first MVP, there's pretty
good value in the al. I just kind of talked
(20:00):
myself into the fact that Wan Soto is probably gonna
win MVP this year. That would be interesting. Where's that number? Land?
That was a fun that was a short around the office.
Did that go out?
Speaker 3 (20:12):
Yeah, I don't know if it's out yet.
Speaker 1 (20:13):
If that's out, yeah, what would your Maybe this should
be a recurring thing. What what was your guess? I
said fifteen for six hundred six. In my head, I've
got five point fifty.
Speaker 3 (20:27):
Certainly reasonable.
Speaker 2 (20:29):
Who knows I figured over fifteen years because he's twenty five.
Speaker 1 (20:34):
Oh hey, technically put a seven on.
Speaker 3 (20:36):
The board before was like a bargain.
Speaker 1 (20:40):
If Sodo wants to be ridiculous, he could probably get
seven oh one over forty years. Uh. That'll be fun
to check in on the by the end of the
year to see where that contract actually lands. Uh. And
the NL I the other final point I was gonna
make NL I think is ugly move Ronald Acunya, Tatis
(21:02):
Shohe Harper Olsen, Elie de la Cruz's stock is flying up.
I don't know. And L might be a blood bat
this year. I think Al's looking for a couple guys
to step up, whether that's a Gun or Henderson, Bobby
Witt the National League. That looks like MVP bloodbath.
Speaker 2 (21:27):
But if Mookie stays at short all year, Mookie just
hits like this, does the shortstop thing? That's the story.
Speaker 1 (21:35):
So uh, that was a little what's what's the money saying?
Segment by Jake Soreli that's why you guys tune into
this and when you're not getting your money tips from me,
we're talking NFL draft. Uh. The NFL Draft is one
of my favorite things in sports. Like I talked about,
(21:56):
the rumor mill just already flowing, is incredible. The talking
Giants guys, Bobby and Justin Pennock, Bobby Skinner, Justin Pennock,
they are they're giddy. Bobby Skinner, who's one of the
biggest guys you'll ever meet, was kind of giddy this morning.
(22:18):
He kind of came in the room and everyone was
bumping around a little bit, and like you know, the
Giants fans are getting different rumors every hour that they're
in on a different quarterback or they're in on someone else.
And it's just the beauty of the draft that people
spend hours and hours trying to figure out what's gonna happen.
There could literally be a trade for the two pick,
(22:40):
and the whole draft could go awry instantly. And now
these people that have been making plans for months, these
NFL executives and front offices have to audible on the
fly and sometimes absolute chaos insws. The Draft's one of
my favorite things going back to there's a couple of
years where the Minnesota Viking were late for their pick
(23:01):
so they got cut off, and it was just like, what, Hey,
how is that a rule be Vikings? That can't happen.
This is real life. You have one job. Teams have
gotten better about it, but better technology. When you're watching
(23:23):
the draft and you have that the pick is in
pops up and it's your team, or it's your pope,
your enemy team, or whatever it is. If you're a
sports fan, the draft is just incredible, incredible and a
couple things that you probably know that you should be
excited for. I'll give some takes around them. The quarterbacks
(23:45):
are fun. You're gonna see four to five in the
first round. Caleb Williams will go first. I'm not as
sold on Caleb as everyone. I hope it's a freezing
bad take. It's looked incredible. I I don't care about
any of the silly stuff that people are the crying
fingernail polish, I don't care. I've done both of those.
(24:09):
I know his team got worse WHOA, But there's not
a ton of QB prospects that are he played worse
this year than last year. The offensive line was horrible,
the team wasn't great, So it could be one of
those look back and laugh and maybe this is gonna
(24:30):
spin on my head because one of my things I
love is when quarterbacks face adversity every week because I
think if you're at some of the major if you're
at some of the major colleges and you're dominating the
O line every week, like it's a lot easier to
be a quarterback if you have better O line and
better wide receivers. There's a lot of guys that can
(24:50):
get the ball to someone. The NFL doesn't work like that.
So I'm not saying I'm out on Kleb. I think
the people doubling down on Kleb being the lock of
lock of locks, I'm against that. I think he looks
he looks good. Trevor Lawrence looked incredible coming out, and
Trevor Lawrence has been fine. The Urban Meyer time sucked,
(25:13):
and I do not hold that against him.
Speaker 3 (25:15):
He's taking steps.
Speaker 1 (25:17):
He's taken the step. People thought he was going to
take another step last year he kind of did not,
So we're we're gonna find out. I mean, maybe Trevor
Lawrence is gonna be incredible. Caleb. I'm as QB prospects go,
he looks pretty good, pretty damn good. I'm just saying
all of quarterback prospects, and this is one of Rosillo's things.
(25:37):
So maybe I'm just piggybacking off that so much. It's
less than a fifty to fifty hit rate in the
first round. We have no clue. So I just don't
have Calebin kind of that super lock territory that we've
seen with some qbs coming out. But it also it
doesn't exist, and I guess that's what I'm fading on.
(26:00):
I'm just fading on the concept of quarterbacks. I think
Jayden Daniels, who's probably going number two. I guess if
the gambling odds were better for Jaden, I would hit
him pretty good. I like him. He plays really fun.
There's something about his running style that's elusive. That's kind
of like they used to say it about Tiki Barber.
(26:20):
They said, Tiki Barber never took the big hit. Jaden
Daniels he's really good at avoiding it. So if he
can use his scrambling early on to get settled in
the way, he passes the ball incredibly two that one
of the bigger knocks on him was early on in
his college career he didn't like give his receivers a chance.
(26:41):
And I think he's gotten over that and he lit
it up last year. And I'm not the biggest NFL
tape guy. Everyone says his tape from last year is
better than Caleb Williams, which again just like my alarms
and censors that are going out because I love team
building and the risk that goes into it, and we're
going to try this and do this. Could we not
(27:04):
be here in two years and be like, well, you know,
Jaden Daniels their last year at college, he did play
better and he became the better quarterback. Like I that
is not a crazy statement in the world of qbs
at all at all. I don't know I'm in on Jaden.
(27:25):
I guess that's my statement. Drake May. I have no clue.
I hope the Patriots. I think the Patriots are going
to take him, mostly because they need a quarterback very badly,
and the quarterback also sells tickets. If they do trade back,
start the draft. Start the draft, whether it's a team
(27:50):
trading up for a quarterback. I would also love if
New England's just out of their dome and they took
Marvin Harrison Junior or one of the wide receivers. The
middle of this first round is gonna get electric because
someone's gonna fall in love with the quarterback. Whether it's
JJ McCarthy, it's probably JJ McCarthy. I guess bo Nix
(28:10):
is still in the mix, so as Pennix. JJ McCarthy
is the one that people. You can knock Pennix for
his injuries in some of his previous performance. Boone Nicks
you can knock for some of his previous performance. JJ McCarthy,
you're not knocking his previous performance. They just didn't need
him to do a lot, which honestly freaks me out
(28:33):
because he Michigan almost didn't need him, but when he did,
he stepped up. So I don't know, maybe there's a
leadership thing there. And if he was in if he
was in one of the spread offenses, would he have
lit it up. There's four quarterbacks that are probably going
top ten, and two of them statistically are going to
(28:56):
not be good.
Speaker 3 (28:58):
You're just straight up so.
Speaker 1 (29:00):
Kind of pick your two, and like, I don't know
if it's May and McCarthy are the second two picks.
I don't think that means I don't necessarily think that's
a safer choice. And the fact that we've got all
these quarterbacks make it a fun draft because you're more
familiar and it's franchise changing, Like at least four franchises
(29:24):
in the first round are going to think they either
have their new guy or they're going to be set
back another four years, which is crazy. And that's why
I don't want my Broncos to get bo Nicks, but
they're the only team link to them. Excited to see that.
The wide receivers are really fun in this draft. Neighbors
out of LSU Roma Dunse, who's just awesome. It shocks
(29:50):
me that there could possibly be two wide receivers that
go before that guy and Marvin Harrison Junior. And I
don't know, man, I'm stoked for the Cardinals. Like, yes,
Madden is a video game and it's not how football
is won, but no, it's pretty cool. Kyler Murray and
Marvin Harrison Junior just bawling out. Look, if you're a
(30:11):
kid in Arizona, times are sick. That's a highlight reel.
So I'm just again, I don't know what it means
football wise. I don't know how good Kyler is and
I don't think he can hold up for a whole season,
but that in and of itself is just fun. If
the Bears, the Bears have a chance to do video
(30:31):
game mode where they could draft Caleb and then one
of the wide receivers. A lot of mocks have them
taking o'doonsda. How sick is that? And by the way,
as I'm telling you, hey, maybe sell your Caleb Williams
stock a little bit. He's looking to fall into one
of the best rookie situations ever DJ Moore. They have,
(30:53):
they signed Keenan Allen, and if they draft one of
the wide receivers, they're all supposed to be enough that
I don't know. That's the video game. That's the video game.
Rock Bowers. The tight end is cool. There's offensive tackles
all throughout this draft. It's very much I keep referencing Madden.
(31:13):
This feels like a Madden draft.
Speaker 3 (31:15):
This feels kind of textbook.
Speaker 1 (31:18):
It's all offense, and I don't know, man, I love
I love all of it. I love reading the mock drafts.
I love reading the letter Gage grades. Make sure you
guys check in with the talking football guys throughout the weekend,
because they're gonna be live streaming a ton, they're gonna
be posting a ton of content. I might be popping
(31:38):
in at some point. We will see. I've always wondered,
I've always wanted teams. I don't want to say to
take it a little less seriously, but I've always wanted
teams to do more ridiculous things. Like if you were
a team and you only took offense and defensive line
one year, you'd probably have a decent offensive and defensive line.
(32:02):
Probably you'd probably get a good core in there. Like
if you drafted eight guys, say you picked up another
fourth round pick O line, D line, ON line, D line,
O line, D line, O line, D line, something like that,
would that not almost guarantee that you'd be better there?
Speaker 3 (32:21):
Hmm?
Speaker 1 (32:24):
Maybe that's Jakie.
Speaker 2 (32:26):
I guess you need one on each to like fully
fully hit, but the others are like at least six
starter level.
Speaker 1 (32:35):
I mean, you hold like eight O linemen and eight
D linemen, so I O line gets a little risky
with all those rookies, I guess.
Speaker 2 (32:43):
But yeah, that could be like that first year is weird.
But it's interesting Angels drafted a no hitter.
Speaker 1 (32:51):
Right, they did that, and it's like kind of working.
Speaker 3 (32:55):
They're seeing the fruits of that.
Speaker 1 (32:59):
And then the next year go cornerbacks and wide receivers again.
I feel like, if you do that, are you are
you gonna be too thin? I have no idea. No
one's ever tried. I mean they're breaking football or in.
Speaker 3 (33:14):
The other spots there's free agency.
Speaker 1 (33:17):
You could I guess they're your linebacker, Like I guess.
Speaker 3 (33:21):
Free agency being before the draft.
Speaker 2 (33:23):
If you because you did that and you were lined
up for this, it'd be a little bit projecting, Like
at least you'd be projecting, like first round, we're for
sure taking linemen and somebody might jump up to get
and get the guy.
Speaker 1 (33:34):
I guess your hand would be on them, your hand.
Speaker 2 (33:37):
Would We wouldn't have the element of surprise as much
as like NBA where draft comes first, or MLB where
it's like it's not based on who you just did.
Speaker 3 (33:48):
Gould be fascinating.
Speaker 1 (33:50):
Yeah, I think if you're going with that method, I
don't know how much the element of surprise works.
Speaker 3 (33:55):
I don't know what you need.
Speaker 1 (33:57):
Just some thinking outside the box sometime.
Speaker 2 (34:00):
Yeah, I guess if it could just be if anybody
wants one specific.
Speaker 3 (34:04):
Guy that might jump you up.
Speaker 1 (34:06):
Well, game you're playing landed in a funky spot. Make
sure you're watching playoffs sports these next couple of days.
Rangers Nicks not bad in New York right now. Huh
tomorrow is a crazy day.
Speaker 2 (34:20):
What are they doing? Well, Well, we've got same time
we have Talking Yanks recap night right and that's during
the Knicks. So that's that's breaking my brain by itself.
And NFL draft mm hmm, so that will be my accessory.
They're gonna be streaming, so I don't know if if
we'll have access to that room during all that.
Speaker 1 (34:42):
After the warehouse we all be zoom.
Speaker 2 (34:44):
It's also my it's also my brother's birthday and I'm
going to a dinner.
Speaker 3 (34:48):
Well his birthday's Friday. But just a crazy day.
Speaker 1 (34:52):
For goddamn sports apocalypse. I love it. Thanks everyone. Make
sure you're subscribing. I do the thing. We're at like
eighteen k do we get there? Let's see, I think
it was seventeen nine, so if I jumped it, I'm sorry,
it's seventeen nine. Subscribe.
Speaker 3 (35:07):
You need to get us there now.
Speaker 1 (35:08):
We need you have a good weekend,
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