NFC North Betting Preview

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
We are back here on The Gambler with Adam Kauffton WRKO.
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(00:24):
Most importantly, subscribe. You can get a lot of great
content stuff that you know, I know, our night Tonight
Baseball or WNBA or whatever. Previews you know, those go
stale quickly if you don't listen the next day. But
conversations like we're about to have right now, that is
good for a little while. In the run up to
the NFL season. As we are sitting a couple weeks away,
we are previewing now the NFC North. It begins with

(00:45):
a team that won the division last year, first time
in quite some time that that had happened, by the way,
first time since nineteen ninety three. I'm talking about the
Detroit Lions and a man who knows this team and
its history inside and out, joins us now Dave Burqutte
Detroit Free Press. Get him on Twitter at Dave Burkette.

Speaker 2 (01:03):
That is b I r k e t T.

Speaker 1 (01:06):
Also has a book on the way called the Detroit Lions,
an illustrated Timeline that comes out October first. It's not
too far away into the season. Dave, How are you welcome.

Speaker 2 (01:16):
To the show?

Speaker 3 (01:18):
I'm doing great?

Speaker 2 (01:18):
How are you doing great?

Speaker 1 (01:20):
And wondering what to make of this team? Because you know,
I like the Lions. I liked the obviously an incredible
amount of skill on the offensive side of the ball.
Dan Campbell's certainly a character this team. You know, fourteen
and six last year when all was said and done,
both straight up and against the spread. For the betters
out there wondering, but you know, it was in many
ways a historic season. I mentioned winning the division for

(01:43):
the first time in a long time, ford Field hosting
its first ever playoff game, Lions finishing a win away
from a trip to the Super Bowl, and that big
collapse that they sustained there in the playoffs even still
first playoff wins since nineteen ninety one. What people want
to know now is was it for real or what?

Speaker 2 (02:00):
You know?

Speaker 1 (02:00):
What was it a sign of things to come? Or
was that an aberration last year? What do you say?

Speaker 3 (02:05):
No, I think it was for real. I mean I
think a lot of times you look at some of
these teams and they peak and the next year you're wondering,
you know, what happened to some of their corps or
how they manage their salary cap issues. And with the Lions,
it was none of that. I mean, it was a
young nucleus. They re signed a bunch of the guys
that you know there weren't even up on their contracts

(02:26):
yet they're they're bringing back players that are still ascending.
In frankly, I look at their roster, I think it's
as good as anyone's in the NFC. So I think
the Lions have a realistic shot of going to their
first ever Super Bowl.

Speaker 2 (02:39):
Uh.

Speaker 3 (02:39):
You know, the division is going to be tough, right
the Packers are or they were essentially in the same spot.
The Lions were leading San Francisco until they collapsed late.
So I don't know that it's a given that the
Lions win the division, but I do think they have
the best roster in the division, and I guess we'll
find out suvement for the best team in the division.

Speaker 4 (03:00):
So, David, what happened in the NFC Championship game back
in January, blowing that seventeen point lead in the second half.
Are the players kind of embracing that that they have to,
you know, get back there and improve on that and
take the next step. Are they just put have they
put in the rear view mirror completely? What's what's kind
of the vibe with the players right now?

Speaker 3 (03:18):
Yeah, I don't. I don't think it's it's, you know,
completely out of mind. I mean, I do think it's
one of those things as gnawing at some of the guys.
You know, Dan Campbell said, you know, it took him
a while to watch it, and I know pene Sewel said,
you know something that you know, he really hung with
him for a long time. I think it's it's fuel
for this team. You know, again, this is really you

(03:40):
look at this this team. I mean the bulk of
the offenses back really added one starter on the the
offensive line and that's really about it. Otherwise it's the
same roster. And then defensively, they overhauled the secondary, but
most of the cornerstone pieces are still in place, Aiden Hutchinson,
Alex Sandalonia linebacker, Earleen McNeil, you know, in the back end,

(04:01):
Brian Branch. So there's a lot of people that were
part of that that, you know, maybe their mistakes contributed
to that, and that left that game thinking and left
the season thinking, you know, we beat the Super Bowl
champion Kansas City Chiefs, We should have beat the NFC
champion San Francisco forty nine Ers. It just didn't happen
at the right time. But I think there's a lot

(04:22):
of people that thought they were the best team in
the NFL when all of a sudden ark should have
been when all of a sudden deth.

Speaker 1 (04:28):
So this team, Dave, you know, continues to be led
offensively by Ben Johnson, which is obviously significant him being
the offensive coordinator, certainly recruited opportunities to go be a
head coach elsewhere, but he stays. So that's massive. And
then you just not just name recognition, but talent. I mean,
there's so much there on the offensive side of the ball.
There's Jared Goff and I'm on Ross Saint Brown, Sam Laporta,

(04:50):
Jamir Gibbs, David Montgomery among others. Let's start with the
quarterback and Goff, who you know, a thirty to twelve
touchdown to interception ratio was really solid last year. He's
been largely pretty incredible for Detroit over the last two years,
his second and third with the team. Overall, looking at
his props on the sports books on the low end,

(05:11):
you're looking at four thousand point five passing yards and
touchdowns at twenty five point five. Now, those are both
totals that each of the last two years, in playing
full season seventeen games in each he obliterated. Should we
expect more of the same out of golf, because, I
mean some people are putting him in a preseason MVP

(05:31):
hype kind of conversation.

Speaker 3 (05:33):
Well, you know, not to jump ahead of the talk
on that, but if you like the Lions to go
to the super Bowl, like I think, Jared Coff's probably
a good play for, you know, a sleeper MVP candidate
just based on being the quarterback maybe the best team
in the NFC. As for those numbers, you're right. I
think it's about five thousand yards or ten thousand years
total the last two years, eight nine thousand yeards total

(05:57):
the last two years, right, forty five plus and forty
four plus. Look, he's gonna put up big numbers again
in Ben Johnson's offense. I you know, I think he
can do it. I mean, he should do it as
long as he stays healthy. It's just, you know, he
has played seventeen the last two years. So do you
roll the dice that he's gonna stay healthy again? I
think yeah, because the offensive line is that good. But

(06:18):
that's really the only thing in my eyes that can
hold him back from reaching those numbers.

Speaker 4 (06:22):
So everybody loves the backfield and Detroit with David Montgomery
and Jamior Gibbs. These guys combined for nearly two thousand
yards rushing a year ago. The books, Dave, when you
look at how they're setting up for this season. You
got Gibbs it eight twenty five and a half, Montgomery
at eight hundred and a half. So they're expecting it
pretty much even split timeshare. Is that going to be
the case, and also is Jamior Gibbs healthy.

Speaker 3 (06:46):
Gibbs is not practiced since he left, you know, a
week or so ago with a hamstring injury. He is
expected back next week though, that's what Dan Campbell said
the Lions have a really late week next week, so
probably won't really know much until they start getting ready
for the Rams the week after. I do expect him
to be in the lineup week one.

Speaker 5 (07:04):
You know.

Speaker 3 (07:04):
The only thing with Jamiir and look, this wasn't like
a serious hamstring injury, but he did miss a couple
games with a hamstering last year, so something to monitor.
I think it is going to be similar split to
what we saw last year. I think Gibbs is the,
you know, of the two backs, the one that has
the potential to tick up in numbers. You know, he
caught fifty two passes last year, but it was only

(07:26):
for three hundred or so yards, and I think there's
a lot more upside there.

Speaker 2 (07:30):
You know.

Speaker 3 (07:30):
The rushing he came just sort of a thousand yards. Look,
you know, Montgomery's going to get his share of touches,
especially close to the goal line. You know that that's
what he does well. And the Lions want to be
that sledgehammer and they're going to be up in games,
and so he's going to get some rushing yards. But
I think Jamiir, if I'm playing one of the two
to the top of a thousand yards. Jamior is the
guy that has the upside and the explosiveness that I

(07:51):
think is the one that I would bet to do that.

Speaker 1 (07:54):
It's not even just that, it's you know, for me anyway,
as an outsider watching, you know, I was excited about
last year, had him on you know, multiple Best Ball
or season long fantasy teams or any of that. Watching
those first few games of the season, it was like,
you know, my god, unlock this guy, like you take
try and figure out how to use him. How how
is he not getting more literal run in this offense?

(08:16):
And you know, once they sort of, I guess, like
broke the chain and just let him go it, then
you saw obviously what the potential is. I have to
imagine to some degree that picks up where it left off, right.

Speaker 3 (08:29):
You know, I think that's a good point because his
first two games last year, I think he had seven
carries each, and you know this was the breaking him
in slowly, right, he's a rookie, and you know he
had one of those first games when David Montgomery was
out he got a little more of the workload, and
then he was out for two games because of that hamstring.
So I do think you're right, the workload, the volume
that he can get. The again, the look at this

(08:51):
Lion's offense right now, you know, watching them in practice,
and I was going the first part of training camp.
I was off covering the Olympics, but watching them since
I've been back, Amen Ros Saint Brown and a'man Ross
Saint Brown more Amora and that's all it is. And
Jamiir hasn't been practicing, Samuel Porter hasn't been practicing. But
when those two come back, the touches that Jamiir gets,
the importance that he is to the offense to help

(09:14):
Amena get some space to operate, to help maybe Jamison
Williams even become more effective over receiver. I think you're
one hundred percent right that you know Gibbon is a
is a crucial part to this offense, and maybe we
didn't see that early last year because the Lions were
treating them a little bit with Kid Gloves being a rookie.

Speaker 4 (09:33):
So you just mentioned the guy that I wanted to
ask you about next, a'mon Ross Saint Brown. He's done
nothing but just absolutely dominate this league well, taking the
league by storm. I think I'll rephrase that going from
nine hundred yards as a rookie to eleven hundred and
his second year to over fifteen hundred last year. Can
we expect him to like keep, you know, escalating these
numbers up and up, or finally our defense is going

(09:55):
to realize, hey, you got to slow this guy down
if you want to stop the Lions.

Speaker 3 (10:00):
I mean, you know, Michael Thomas, Cooper Cup. I think
those are the only guys that are or you know,
maybe they're at least at the top of the single
season season receiving list. Amen Ra has the potential to
challenge that. I mean, he's just he is so important
to this offense and the Lions have so little else
in the receiving room right now, again watching them in practice,

(10:22):
Jared Goff throws the ball to him all the time,
anytime he needs any sort of big play at Tom
and Ra and Saint Brown is usually coming up with
the catch. So I think there's definitely more upside to
what he's done. And you're right, his numbers have gone
up each of those first three seasons. It wouldn't surprise
me at all if we're talking about one hundred and
you know, twenty five hundred and thirty, maybe even more
than that catch guy again, assuming he has good health,

(10:45):
just because I think he's so crucial to to what
the Lions want to do on offense.

Speaker 2 (10:49):
We've got Dave Britt here with us Detroit Free Press.

Speaker 1 (10:52):
We're going to continue our conversation when we come back
about the Detroit Lions expectations for the new year. We
haven't really talked about Sam Laporta, so I want to
go and obviously you know the win total and futures.
Are they a genuine Super Bowl threat to the point
where you'd put money on it?

Speaker 2 (11:08):
All of it. It's on the way back here with.

Speaker 1 (11:13):
Dave Briquette of the Detroit Free Press talking about the
Detroit Lions expectations for twenty twenty four. We were just
chatting about a'man ross Saint Brown, who went for fifteen
hundred plus yards in year three in the system last year,
and that was with missing a game. His props for
the new year. By the way, for anyone that doesn't know,
on the low end, you can get him at twelve
twenty five point five and up and eleven to one

(11:36):
odds on him being the NFL's receiving leader. Something worth
considering as well. But definitely I mentioned Sam laporta Dave.
So you know this guy we were talking about, Jamir Gibbs,
just another one, another just exhilarating, scintillating rookie to watch
and almost nine hundred receiving yards played all season, ten touchdowns.

(11:56):
I mean, he was incredible. But the thing that really
jumps out at me is as a rookie in this offense,
he was targeted one hundred and twenty times. I mean
that is just obscene. And so now we're looking at
seven and a half touchdowns as the line eight twenty
five and a half yards again got passed both of

(12:17):
these as a rookie. This is now year two, But
is the expectation that he will continue to see that
type of volume as compared to what we saw last year.

Speaker 3 (12:27):
Yeah, you know, look, I am very high on the
Lions offense. Again, I think they have one of the
best rosters in the NFC, one of the best chances
to represent the cameras in the Super Bowl. I think,
amen Ra, you know, his numbers maybe go over some
of the numbers that we're talking about Jamire two. I
think laport is still going to be a very important
player to this offense. But I don't know that he

(12:49):
can quite meet those numbers. It's just maybe that that,
you know, year two take a little step back in
terms of production. He's still going to be an extremely
important target for Jared Goff, and especially because again the
Lions don't have much else in their receiving core, right
it's Amara Saint Brown and you know, then you're just

(13:10):
kind of, you know, a hope and a prayer with
some of the receiving options. So Laport is still going
to be extremely important to what they do. But if
I'm looking for maybe one of those guys, one of
those top guys that takes a small step back in
the numbers, he would probably be my pig, just based
on you know, the position he plays, some of the
injuries that he had. He hasn't practiced in a couple
of weeks either at another guy that's expected to be

(13:31):
ready for week one though, and then just I guess
my my expectations for amana in jamieer to be even
a bigger part of the offense.

Speaker 4 (13:40):
So I think, looking at this Lions offense on paper,
Dave that Jameson Williams has a chance to be the
kind of the breakout star this season. Lions take him
in the first round a couple of years ago. He's
had some injury issues here, obviously he was hurt when
they drafted him. Ten games last year, finishes with three
hundred and fifty four yards. Now, Josh Reynolds is out
of the pitcher. He's with the Denver Bronco now, so
that wide receiver two role is wide open for Jameson

(14:03):
to just step up and take it. The books are
looking at six seventy five on the low end for
his receiving yardage props. But I love this guy in college.
Can is he healthy?

Speaker 6 (14:13):
Ho?

Speaker 4 (14:13):
What are his expectations this year?

Speaker 3 (14:16):
So I'm low man on Jamison Williams, you know, out
here in Detroit. I think he's more valuable as a
football player when it comes to the X and O
part of designing and scheming up the offense than maybe
what he'll produce statistically. I mean, I think his speed
is it's certainly a weapon. It's something every defense has
to account for. Again, you know, what the Lions do
with him and what he means to helping other people

(14:38):
get open is important. But you know, when I watch
him in practice, I still see him and Jared Goff
not on the same page, you know, too often for
my taste for him to be in year three. And
you know, he has good days. He has days when
he makes really good catches and big plays and you're like, wow,
this guy, you know he should be going for one
hundred yards every game, But then there's other days when
he's still dropping balls or running that don't seem as

(15:01):
christ as they should be. So I think he's going
to be one of those those frustrating guys when, yeah,
you see a game or two where he pops for
one hundred yards or one hundred and twenty five yards,
but then there's going to be a stretch of games
where you're like, why does he have foty yards receiving
with his speed? So I'm kind of low man on
the numbers for him this year, but I do think
he's going to be an important part of the offense

(15:23):
based on how they use him.

Speaker 1 (15:24):
Whenever we're talking about the Detroit Lions, especially like last year,
Dave and I'm sure the conversation's in in Detroit are similar.
It revolves around where's the game, what's the temperature? Got
splits indoor outdoor, all of that stuff. Well, this season,
it's a favorable schedule and it's not just three out
of the first four games being at home. We're looking

(15:46):
at fourteen of seventeen games inside. That is absolutely incredible,
obviously advantageous for this team. With the preseason win total
of ten and a half. Now, I would say you
could bet them to win eleven twelve games. That wouldn't
surprise anybody. And you know you can get that at
minus money. I think if you're going to bet something

(16:08):
for this team, though around the win total, it's not
making the playoffs, there's no value in that minus two
forty five. The bet is on them to win the
NFC North, you can still get that plus money plus
one thirty five. People want to talk about, you know,
what kind of a spark Caleb Williams might be able
to provide the new look Bears. Obviously Jordan Love and

(16:28):
the way he finished out last year, and expectations around
Green Bay this year. But is Detroit in your mind
still deservedly the favorite to win this division? Do you
expect them to win this division?

Speaker 3 (16:40):
I do, and I don't think it's going to be
a runaway, you know, but I think you're right, Like, look,
the Packers are good. I think the division has improved
overall because I think the Bears, you know, when they
made that Montes sweat trade last year, that defense looked
significantly better. You ever want a playmaker like Caleb Williams,
even though he'll have some some growing pains, And you know,
the Viking still has talent, even though I think they're

(17:01):
probably fourth in the division. But we're not talking like
a three and fourteen fourth. We're talking maybe like a
six and eleven fourth. So I think it's going to
be four pretty competitive teams, and I think the Lions
are the class of it. I just think they have
the best roster in the division. That you mentioned the schedule,
I mean, they do have one road game late outdoors

(17:23):
in weather in Chicago. San Francisco's out there too, but
not like a Chicago weather, so that would be the
one sort of you know, potential road test. They get
Green Bay in early November shouldn't be too bad.

Speaker 5 (17:35):
So I like the way the schedule.

Speaker 3 (17:36):
Sets up for the Lions, you know, based on the
rest they get and who they're playing when, and you
know some of the the you know, the primetime games
that they have. I think this is a team that
certainly Green Bay is going to challenge them. I think
those other teams are going to be good. But there's
no reason when I look at the rosters to think
that the Lions will take a step back that they

(17:57):
won't finish first place in this division.

Speaker 4 (18:00):
So, Dave, we really haven't hit on the defense much
with it yet. This was the twenty seventh ranked pass
defense last year. Did they make enough improvements to the
secondary through the draft and free agency to improve on that?

Speaker 6 (18:11):
Yeah?

Speaker 2 (18:11):
They did.

Speaker 3 (18:12):
You know, look, you're not talking about probably a top ten,
you know, past defense or top five, you know, all
of a sudden, you know, no fly zone type. But look,
they what they did was they overhauled their cornerback court completely.
You're looking at Carlton Davis and you know, Terry and
Arnold are going to be the two new starters once
Arnold the selfie and you know those guys are going
to be physical and they're going to play a lot

(18:33):
of the press man coverage at Aaron Glenn likes, so
they can get after teams and blitz a little bit more.
And you know what they've done at the safety spot
is they're going to move Brian Branch back to the
safety position and you know, take him out of some
of the slot duties that he had last year. He
was really good at that. But they just think they're
a better defense and they have more options back there

(18:54):
when they when they play him at safety, and you know,
we'll see who plays slot in some of the nickel
package is whether that's to meet robertson whether Rake Straw,
they or other rookie cornerback can take over some of that.
Maybe Branch still sees a little bit of time there,
but I think what they have there that they didn't
have in the past is depth and options. And we
all know cornerbacks the spot where injuries pile up. So

(19:14):
I think the Lions are built for the long haul
at that position, even if they're not great at that
position yet.

Speaker 1 (19:20):
So we were talking earlier, Dave about how this Detroit team,
you know, coming off its first playoff win going back
to the nineteen nineties, the early nineteen nineties, and just
what things have been like there in Detroit. I mentioned
earlier you have a book on the way August first,
the Detroit Lions and illustrated timeline. I am of an
age where I can still remember, you know, Barry Sanders

(19:43):
and you know, multiple trips, I mean the probably a
half dozen trips to the playoffs over the course of
the nineteen nineties before turn of the century and things
started to turn south. Obviously, What was this project like
to put together?

Speaker 3 (19:58):
Oh? Yeah, you know, it was definitely a a run
through history. I mean, I've covered the team for I
mean really I started in two thousand and eight. That
was my first full season. I wasn't at the Free
Press end, but you know, really in the past fifteen
years since I've been at the Free Press. You know,
we did a project where we went back and we
had like a sixtieth reunion of the nineteen fifty seventeen
and doing an oral history of Billy Simms and the injury.

Speaker 6 (20:21):
That he had.

Speaker 3 (20:21):
So I feel like I've covered a lot of these
things that you know, appear in the book or that
have been so important to Lion's history even before you know,
jumping into this project, but you know, going through old
archives at the library and getting ready for you know,
you know, kind of the historic aspect of this was
even eye opening to me in some regards and hearing

(20:44):
some of the old stories, but you're right. They Lions
had a historic past, winning championships in the fifties and
really really good in the nineties when they couldn't quite
get over that home with Barry. Lots of lean years,
and I think they are, you know, a team that
has I'm staying power right now under Dan Campbell.

Speaker 1 (21:03):
Dave Brikeett so much great stuff obviously on the Detroit
Lions and what should be a really fun twenty twenty
four season. You can get Dave on Twitter at Dave
Burkett again that is b I R K E T T.
And you know, longtime member as he mentioned of the
Detroit Free Press. Definitely check out the book.

Speaker 2 (21:20):
Dave. Always enjoy having you on man. We'll do it
again soon for sure.

Speaker 3 (21:23):
Anytime we'll talk to you again.

Speaker 1 (21:26):
We are back here on The Gambler with Adam Kaufman.
If you haven't subscribed to the podcast, search that full
name wherever you get your podcasts, and you will get
tons of great insights and information into every NFL team,
plenty of college football teams as well, but every NFL
team in great detail going into the new season.

Speaker 2 (21:45):
How to bet them.

Speaker 1 (21:46):
It's great actionable information, not only for betting, but DFS,
daily fantasy, your season long teams, whatever you may be
doing target Tuesdays or right around.

Speaker 2 (21:55):
The corner in fantasy.

Speaker 1 (21:57):
Ah, this is great to have football back. And no
exception on all that I just said. With tonight and
the next guest as we welcome in Ryan Wood, who
is part of the USA Today Network covers the Packers.
You can get them on Twitter at buy ryan Wood.

Speaker 2 (22:14):
Ryan. Welcome back to the show man. How are you now?

Speaker 5 (22:17):
How's it going tonight?

Speaker 2 (22:18):
Great man? How you doing doing well?

Speaker 5 (22:21):
Not bad? You know, it's winding down, training games, winding down,
But it's been a good month and football's close. It's
almost week one. Isn't that fun?

Speaker 2 (22:29):
Oh? It's the best.

Speaker 1 (22:30):
I mean, people are probably on this show tired of
hearing us say it, but we just on and on
and on.

Speaker 2 (22:35):
Football is almost here. It's almost here. We're so excited,
it's true, and I'm excited to watch this Packers team.

Speaker 1 (22:40):
Man ten and nine last year, eleven and eight against
the spread all in for the betters out there, rallied
of course from that two and five start to make
the playoffs.

Speaker 2 (22:48):
Jordan Love only got better as the.

Speaker 1 (22:49):
Season went along, had that impressive blowout of the Cowboys
in Dallas and the wildcard round before losing in the
Divisional round. This is now year six under Matt Lafleur,
preseason win total of.

Speaker 2 (23:00):
Nine and a half.

Speaker 1 (23:01):
I've heard a lot of people say they're looking under
simply because this schedule is very difficult, you know, based
on twenty twenty three playoff opponents in that way, at
five primetime games, including four straight weeks weeks thirteen to sixteen,
first NFL game in Brazil against the Eagles to open
up the year. I mean, there's a lot on the

(23:23):
Packers plate this year and a roster that is largely
similar other than swapping out the you know, starting running
backs with Aaron Jones going to the rival Vikings and
now of course Josh Jacob's coming in from the Raiders.
So what are the expectations locally.

Speaker 5 (23:39):
Well, it's amazing how perception can can change and alter
expectations because a year ago, you want to talk about
just one of the most bizarre seasons you'll ever see.
The Packers at one point last season were both look
dead in the water and on the cusp of the
Super Bowl. Right, they look like the league's worst offense
and maybe the league best offense all in the same season.

(24:02):
It's just that the positives came at the end and
the negatives were at the beginning, and when the positives
follow the negatives, that the negatives get forgotten. So there's
a lot of expectation. There's sky high expectation coming into
this twenty twenty four season that the Packers are on
the short list of the NFC contenders to make a
Super Bowl run. And Geordan Love's second season as a starter,

(24:23):
and when you look at how they finished the final
two months and the turnaround that they had last year,
there's good reason for that. Now they are still young,
they're going to have to go out there and prove
it again. It's very interesting the very first thing that
Matt Lafleur's this season exiting press conference at the very
beginning of this offseason, with the expectations for twenty twenty

(24:45):
four will not be what they were for twenty twenty three.
It's an entirely it's a young team, but entirely different
circumstances for this young group. How they handle that will
be very interesting.

Speaker 4 (24:55):
So Ryan, you kind of just hit on it there.
Jordan Love entering his second season as a starter, signs
that massive four year, two hundred and twenty million dollar
contract extension in the offseason. He was surging at the
right time down the stretch. Last year, He's climbed to
I believe, the fifth or sixth best odds to win
the MVP this year. Is he ready to elevate truly

(25:16):
into an MVP contender and take this team even farther
this year?

Speaker 5 (25:21):
You know, I think so. You gotta believe what you
saw with your eyes the last two months of last season,
he was He had the highest passer rating the final
two months of last season in the NFL. There's a
lot of good quarterbacks in the NFL. Last two months
he had the highest passer rating.

Speaker 6 (25:37):
He put this.

Speaker 5 (25:38):
Team on his back in the playoff run in a
way that you know, there's been some good quarterbacks in
Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers, he didn't do that in two
thousand and eight. He's a future Hall of Famer. Brett
Fava took him a couple of seasons. Jordan Love year
one down the stretch, put this entire team, the organization
on his back, and again, I mean it was really

(25:58):
on the cusp of doing something and especially special. So
the Packers absolutely believe that Jordan Love is the guy
to leave them for the next decade. That's how they
see it. They think that he's going to be one
of the best quarterbacks in the league. It's it's year
two for him. So there's going to be he's going
to see different defensive looks. There's going to be more

(26:18):
film for defensive coordinators. How he handles an adjusted to
that will be significant. But he's got all the talent
and he's a great fit in this offense. It's an
offense moted with playmakers, young playmakers. Jordan Love knows the
offense very well. He's on great page with Matt Lafleur.
He's indiscriminate and who he throws the ball to. He
just takes what the defense gives and really spread the wealth,

(26:40):
which is a good fit for this offense. So yeah,
there's every reason to think that he can pick up
where he left off.

Speaker 1 (26:47):
It's as Dan noted, you know the second season as
a starter for Love, and so we have a very
small sample to go off of when it comes to
Vegas and the Props, but we're looking at it and
on the low end, thirty eight and twenty five and
a half passing yards twenty seven and a half passing touchdowns.
Now he soared pass both those numbers. Last year had
almost forty two hundred passing yards thirty two passing touchdowns.

(27:10):
If you're looking at it, if you're betting on it,
I mean, is the expectation like, how does he not
hit these props?

Speaker 2 (27:15):
So long as he's healthy and on the field.

Speaker 5 (27:18):
Exactly right. I was just thinking, if Jordan Love is healthy,
he will be higher on yards and touchdowns. He will
have a four thousand yard thirty touchdown season if he
is healthy. There's just too much talent around him. Seventeen
games season, and he showed it last year as much
as and I just said it as much as the
you know, having more film for defense coordinators to attack

(27:41):
you with. There's going to be some different defensive looks.
You never expect year one to be the best year.
I guess sophomore slumps can happen, but usually you expect
the talented guy, as we know Jordan Love to be,
to be able to build off of the introduction. Right,
you don't expect it to be the best year ever.
Going to be a year one and you're just going
to go downhill here. I would expect Jordan Love to

(28:01):
be better than he was last year, and last year
he hit those numbers, so it would be very surprising
if he stays healthy to not hit the reach those benchmarks.

Speaker 4 (28:10):
So in order for Love to get there, they though,
he's going to need some help out of his receivers.
And this receiving corps is really interesting to me, Ryan
because it's very deep, but I don't feel like there's that,
you know, the traditional wide receiver one, if you will,
for fantasy players out there, and the books kind of
feel the same way. You got Christian Watson, Jaden Reid,
and Romeo Dobbs. All these guys, their season long props
are all like right within two hundred yards of each other,

(28:32):
anywhere from six hundred for Dobbs all the way up
to seven point fifty for Reid. Who is the wide
receiver one of this group.

Speaker 5 (28:41):
They don't have one. There is no wide receiver one.
What they have is a big four. In any given week,
Christian Watson, Romeo Dobbs, Jana Reed, or Dontavian Wicks can
be the wide receiver one that they'll go based off matchups.
They'll go based off who's just the hot hand, who
gets open? What defenses to do in terms of average? Uh,
you know, I had an interesting conversation about this with

(29:03):
Christian Watson a few days ago about how defenses approach
this packers offense to the skill group given that there's
not one guy. You know, it's not like you a
few years ago with Devanta Adams, every defense knew you
gotta you got a cloud cover. You've got a double
team Devanta Adams every snap because Aaron Rodgers is coming
to seventeen every snap he gets. You know that that's

(29:25):
the guy. They don't have that. How do defense respond
to that? He said, there's there's really not a lot
of cloud coverage. There's a lot of single man, not
a lot of double teams. Rumeo Dobbs, he said, got
some double teams late last season. You remember he was
the hot guy in the playoffs last year. But unless
there's a hot guy, they get a lot of single coverage.

(29:45):
And that's you know, it's really an opportunity for everyone
to really spread the wealth. And that's how the will
love operates. So there is no wide receiver one, but
it's it's kind of a good thing because they've got
a clear top four and those guys are going to
make a lot of plays.

Speaker 1 (30:00):
We've got Ryan Wood here hanging with us from the
USA Today Network covers the Packers. We have only scratched
the surface. We're gonna keep on going. Talk about the
running back situation a little bit. Obviously, overall team expectations
in terms of that win total, right way to bet?
Can they win the division? All sorts of good stuff.
When we come on back, Ryan Wood is here with

(30:22):
us from USA Today Network covers the Packers and telling
us what to expect in twenty twenty four season.

Speaker 2 (30:29):
Only a couple of weeks a way.

Speaker 1 (30:30):
Obviously, so far, it's Jordan Love should be awesome. And
as Tom Brady once said many many times, actually the
open receivers his favorite receiver, sort of feels like that
kind of vibe in Green Bay. But the running back,
the running back position is interesting because Aaron Jones is
gone now with Viking and Josh Jacobs for the first
time in his career. Not a Raider, not even an

(30:53):
Oakland Raider. He's not a Las Vegas Raider. He is
no longer a Raider. He is a Green Bay packer
year one. Now after you know, half dozen years playing
elsewhere in the Black and Silver and looking for a
resurgent year, you might say, eight hundred five yards last
year in just thirteen games. His prop is said at
nine to twenty five and a half seven and a

(31:14):
half rushing touchdowns fell short, obviously, of both of those
totals last year. After an unbelievable twenty twenty two a
career twenty twenty two, what are the odds Ryan that
we see anything like that again? Or is this going
to be not a committee but maybe a little bit
more aj Dillon than we might be expecting, and you know,

(31:36):
even potentially the third round er out of USC, Marshawn Lloyd.

Speaker 5 (31:42):
Yeah, it's hard to think that Josh Jacobs will duplicate
twenty twenty two. He did have a quarterback in that
Raiders offense that he does. Now they're going to certainly
there's going to be weeks that the defense comes in
wanting to stop Josh Jacobs, but there's going to be
a lot of weeks that they want to stop this
passing game too. So it's going to be very interesting
to see how defensive attack this backfield general between Jordan

(32:03):
Love and Josh Jacobs. The other balance that will be
very interesting is that Matt Lafleur is a known dual
running back system guy. He doesn't believe in the workhorse.
In fact, with Aaron Jones, the one the one blemish
maybe on his career here in Green Bay is not
getting more opportunity. Every week during the fall, Matt Lafleur

(32:25):
would be asked about, Hey, I about getting Aaron Jones
the ball more? And it always seemed to be a
struggle for some reason. Josh Jacobs is built as close
to a workhorse running back as there is in the league.
I mean, think about around the NFL, Derek Henry, Saquon Barkley,
Josh Jacobs. There's just not a lot of workhorse guys
that are true put it all, put the run game

(32:47):
completely on their shoulders for four quarters type tailbacks. He's won.
So I've asked Matt Lafleur, you know, how do you
value You got a workhorse guy, Now, how do you
go about him in this offense? And he said he
still believes over the course of the season seventeen games,
you need to have a second running back. You've got
to be able to spread the carries out a little bit.

(33:09):
I gotta think it's gonna be tempting, though, to use
him as the workhorse that he's built to be. So
how we'll have to see how that balance shapes out,
But I think that's going to be very interesting to
track throughout the season.

Speaker 4 (33:20):
So Jeff Hafley leaves his head coaching job here in
Boston at BC to become a defensive coordinator in the NFL.
Ryan The Packers kind of rehauled the safety position in
the offseason, using some high draft picks, also signing Xavier McKinney.
What's going on with the defense this year? Is this
going to be a strength of this team?

Speaker 2 (33:37):
A weakness?

Speaker 4 (33:38):
What are we looking at?

Speaker 5 (33:39):
You know, I've said for years now that I'll believe
the Packers have a good defense only if I see it.
You know, the time for faith in such things, it's
just it's just gone by the wayside. But it does
seem like they've got a good fit between scheme and
talent here in Green Bay. They transition to the four
to three defense, which is very similar in construct to

(34:01):
the four two five nickel that everyone plays throughout the league.
That's been very advantageous for the defensive front, which is
a stocks loaded, talented defensive front, both the defensive tackle
defensive end, a lot of pass rush potential up front,
and they've completely remade their safety positions, David McKinney, as
you said, but they went out and they got two
guys in the draft that have built that really good

(34:24):
training camps as rookies and Javon Bowler's second round pick
out of Georgia and Evan Williams, the fourth round pick
out of Oregon. It looks night and day different at
safety than it did a year ago. Safety really in
the kicking game, the two huge problems that they had
on their twenty twenty three roster, safety looks a lot better. So,
you know, sounds a lot like faith as they talk, right,

(34:47):
I'll believe they have a good defense when I see it.
But there's reasons to think that twenty twenty four Packers
could be a better defense than we've seen in a while.

Speaker 1 (34:56):
So I mentioned earlier nine and a half that's the
preseason win TOI total and outlined all the different reasons
why it might be tough to get there in your mind,
and a lot of people certainly believe that the Lions
division to lose. As you look at this team, is
this a ten win team?

Speaker 5 (35:14):
I think it's a ten win team. I'm not sure
about how much more than that. I do think that
the Lions are going to be the favorite in the
NFC North. They've earned that. They were on the doorstep
to the Super Bowl too, and really blew in the
second half of the NFC Championship game. So it's not
only a talented Detroit Lions team, but it's it's a
ticked off Detroit Lions team. It's a team that now
believes in itself and wants to go out there and

(35:34):
take the next step, and it's going to be playing angry.
Say the Packers are the same way. To me. The
big question mark on this Packers team it still is
the youth. They very similarly built in terms of being
young as last year. They have more experience, but is
it enough experience to take that final step. I think
that's the question and we'll have to see as it goes.

(35:56):
But I do think it's a very talented roster, starting
with the quarterback. I think that if you know, it
would have shocked me if they win the NFC North.
If They're back on top of the division that they've
seem to be on top of this past three decades,
at the very least as a wildcard team. That's going
to be dangerous come playoff time.

Speaker 4 (36:12):
So is this team capable of making a full run
to the super Bowl or is there just too much,
too much youth and too many other good teams in
the NFC standing in their way.

Speaker 5 (36:21):
It's absolutely capable. I would definitely not say that this
team is incapable of making a super Bowl run. They
would not shock me if they did. To me, the
question is the youth. They can they handle that type
of expectation. You know, they went in last year in
the playoffs. They boat raced the Dallas Cowboys in the
wildcard game and then they had every opportunity to win

(36:42):
that Divisional round game in San Francisco. Should have won
that Divisional round games in San Francisco. They outplayed the
forty nine ers for most of that game and they
didn't make the plays at the end to win it.
Can this team make up that big of a golf
being still young in one season? That's the question. But
is it capable? It's absolutely capable. It is on the
short list of front runners to win the NFC this year, do.

Speaker 1 (37:04):
You have a you know, without us obviously throwing a
whole bunch of specific props at you or anything like that.
As you sort of going back to the receivers, because
they are such a wild card, and I know you
talked about it kind of being a situation where they're
they're all just capable and there isn't necessarily going to
be that one guy that explodes and becomes that clear
cut number one receiver. But as you look at this group,

(37:27):
and it's hard to project health, especially with someone like
Christian Watson, but if they're on the field, is there
going to be that guy that, you know, maybe not weekend,
week out, but by the end of the year, Okay,
Like he he is the one who stepped up, He's
got the best chance of being the you know, the
thousand yard guy, the you know that the guy that's
going to be targeted one hundred and twenty five times.

Speaker 5 (37:50):
I still think the most talented receiver that they have
is Christian Watson. Nobody stretches the field vertically like Christian Watson.
In this offense, there's an element of speed in and
frankly size to it. We always talk about the speed
with Christian watching for good reason. He runs four to three.
He's also six four to sixty five. There's it's an
uncommon it's a rare blend of size and speed that

(38:10):
just isn't duplicated in this offense. The problem when you
start projecting is that their most talented we're all talented
receiver is also their most injury pro. He's also the
guy that you have the most question marks about staying
on the field seventeen games over the course in the fall.
That's where when you start projecting numbers that that gets difficult.

(38:31):
But I do think he's the most talented guy. That said,
Romeo Dobbs is the best route runner, and he's been
the most clutched guy in this offense. And that said,
Jayden Reid had the best season last year. In the
regular season. He broke Sertling Sharps three decades old rookie
receiving franchise record for the Packers. That's a heck of
a guy to pass as a rookie. And Dantavian Wicks

(38:53):
about all he's done in this preseason was on his
played one snap and caught a sixty five yard touchdown
from Jordan Love against the Brownie. He s he's so
He's not a guy you can sleep on.

Speaker 7 (39:02):
You can't.

Speaker 5 (39:03):
You can't forget about him either. This truly is a
top four. There is no there's I think at the
end of the season you want to see these top
four receivers have very similar numbers. No, No one guy
separate themselves from the pack uh. That's and a lot
of that also falls on the quarterback and Jordan Love
and how he operates. I love the line you said
about Tom Brady his favorite receivers and the open receiver.

(39:26):
That is relentlessly how Jordan Love operates behind center. He
will throw to the open guy, doesn't care who it
is the first receiver. Last year, the first Packers receiver
to crack the hundred yard mark in a game was
bow Melton. He just got hot late in the season
against Minnesota Vikings. It wasn't even the top four, and
then you saw Jad and Reid have a hundre yard game.

(39:46):
So you saw rowing you Dobbs in the playoffs have
a hundred yard game, but the Boat Melton was the first.
That's how Jordan Love operates. If you're open, you're getting
the ball and he's got a lot of talent throat
to throw to.

Speaker 4 (39:57):
That's going to be an excellent bar trivia question someday.
And I hope you hold on to that one overall.

Speaker 5 (40:02):
I've never forgetting that one. You got to keep that
one in my back pocket for sure.

Speaker 4 (40:05):
Man. The only thing we haven't really hit on yet
with you is the two tight ends. So you draft
the two rookies last year in Green Bay, Muskgrave and Craft.
Either one of those they almost have identical stats a
year ago. Either one of those two ready to break
out this.

Speaker 5 (40:17):
Year tight end in case we you know, let's not
pass that over because for a decade here, really, since
twenty thirteen when Termichael Finley's career ended prematurely because of
a neck injury, this is a franchise that has looked
far and wide to try to fill that position, especially
with young talent, and intermittently. I mean, Jared Cook had

(40:39):
a decent twenty sixteenth season, then they didn't resign him,
and Robert Tunyan had a great, you know, twenty twenty
season and then tours acl the next year. No, mentally
they had a guy, but never like this. I mean,
they've just never been able to consistently get this position right,
and now it is with Luke Muskgrave and Tucker Craft.
And what's interesting is we haven't you know, Luke Musk

(41:00):
was the guy the first half of last season, then
he got injured with a lacerated kidney midway through the year,
and then as soon as he went down, Tucker Craft
emerged as this yack maniac, this guy you throw checkdowns too,
and he'll take it twenty five yards and be hurtling
tacklers and just all kinds of goofy stuff. You put
them together, what they can do together, which we haven't

(41:22):
seen yet. It's it's scary because Luke Musgrave has that
size and the straight line speed to stretch the seam.
Tucker Craft the yack guy underneath and making plays after
the catch. That's an element of this offensive Packers haven't
had in a very long time. They feel like they
do now. It goes with Josh Jacobs, it goes with
the receivers, and obviously goes with Jordan Love as.

Speaker 2 (41:41):
Well as you can all tell by now.

Speaker 1 (41:44):
Ryan Wood does an awesome job covering the Packers beat
writer for the USA Today Network, also a co host
of Green Bay Nation.

Speaker 2 (41:51):
Get him on Twitter at buy ryan Wood. Ryan.

Speaker 1 (41:54):
Thanks so much, man, We always enjoyed these annual conversations.

Speaker 2 (41:57):
Maybe we'll hitch you in season two.

Speaker 5 (41:59):
Absolutely take care.

Speaker 1 (42:04):
Where back here the Gambler with Adam Kauffman WRKO.

Speaker 2 (42:08):
We are going to get.

Speaker 1 (42:09):
Into a little bit of Minnesota vikingstock coming up here
in just a couple of moments. Matthew Caller is going
to join us from Purple Insider does a great job
covering the team, and he has been on with us before,
was on about this time last year. As a matter
of fact, when we were previewing this same team, this group.
Though I say the same team, it's not really the

(42:30):
same team. It's turned over a little bit, you know, obviously,
most especially at the quarterback position with first round pick
JJ McCarthy out for the year with an injury, which
is I mean, I know, I've been dan as you know,
sort of like blowing the horn of I don't think
JJ McCarthy's going.

Speaker 2 (42:51):
To be a very good pro.

Speaker 1 (42:52):
I at least figured he'd get an opportunity in his
first year in the NFL, but obviously that is not
going to happen. So it's on to twenty twenty five
for him, said Sam Darnold is going to be the
starting quarterback for this team and maybe just maybe a
contender for Comeback Player of the Year. Let's get into
all that again. Matthew Caller joining us here. You can
get him on Twitter at Matthew Caller.

Speaker 2 (43:13):
That is co L L.

Speaker 8 (43:15):
E Er.

Speaker 1 (43:16):
He is from Purple Insider and author of Football Is
a Numbers Game as well.

Speaker 2 (43:20):
Matthew, how are you man? Welcome back.

Speaker 7 (43:23):
I'm I'm doing pretty well.

Speaker 6 (43:24):
You know.

Speaker 7 (43:25):
I think if you had seen JJ McCarthy in training
camp in preseason, maybe you would have changed your mind
a little bit about that, because I was very skeptical
of him when they drafted him, and I saw a
kid grow as fast as I've ever seen any player
grow in front of me. So I think there's a
reason the Vikings feel pretty good about where they're going

(43:46):
to go eventually with him, even if PSA miss this year.

Speaker 1 (43:50):
Well, here and now we're looking at a team that
went seven and ten last year straight up seven to
seven and three against the spread. For anyone out there,
you know, wondering from a a betting perspective, obviously, the
books clearly believe this is once again a seven win team,
because depending on where you look, you see a preseason
over under of six and a half juice to the
over or seven and a half juice to the under,

(44:13):
So they're looking at a repeat performance. What's really interesting
as they enter this third year under Kevin O'Connell is
this is a team that, you know, thirteen wins in
twenty twenty two, the seven last year, even after a
six and four start, by the way, but near identical
point differentials. The regression really came in the form of
basically worse luck in close games a year ago, and

(44:34):
naturally the injuries to Kirk Cousins who's now a Falcon,
and Justin Jefferson as well. So with the other changes
that have happened, what are you looking for out of
this team this year? I mean, is this a team
that could even flirt with a playoff spot?

Speaker 3 (44:49):
Yeah?

Speaker 7 (44:49):
I think this is probably the hardest team to predict
going into the season that I've covered since arriving here
to cover the Vikings in twenty sixteen, because we just
I really don't know what the quarterback situation is going
to look like. And if I just showed you the
rest of the roster, and if say Kirk Cousins had
come back, I think a lot of people would be

(45:10):
talking about this team, maybe not quite on the same
level as the Detroit Lions, but maybe neck and neck
with the Green Bay Packers, and a team that could
compete for the division if a few things went wrong
in Detroit, and a playoff type of team. But when
you come back to who the quarterback is, your expectations
certainly fall because when you go through I mean, the
star power is there with Justin Jefferson. They signed Christian Darrisaw,

(45:33):
the quietest elite left tackle in the league. They bring
in Aaron Jones, who ended his season with five straight
one hundred yard games, and then added a bunch of
talent to a defense that was pretty good last year
with Brian Flores just pushing the blitz button over and
over and over again. And to all that, I think
is a team that would be above average and a
team that we would expect to be in the postseason.

(45:54):
But when you're trying to be sold on a quarterback
who I think is fifteen games under five hundred for
his career, who has a sub eighty quarterback rating, which
wouldn't have even been great in nineteen eighty four and
certainly not great in twenty twenty four. I mean that
just makes you a little skeptical of where they could
really go with this team. And as much as I've

(46:15):
seen Sam Donald show off the cannon that got him
drafted number three overall by the New York Jets during
training camp, you also see what happens to him when
things break down and he starts to get shaky, and
he starts to try to force the ball into places
where it shouldn't go and throw interceptions and things like that.
So I think that if you could curtail some of

(46:36):
the huge errors, the sacks, the fumbles, the interceptions that
have kind of plagued Sam Donald even going back to USC,
then yeah, I think you have enough to be a
playoff team. But you're really asking a Tiger to change
his stripes there, and I think that's the hard part
to coming around to the Vikings actually being a playoff contender.

Speaker 4 (46:54):
So, Matthew, what is a realistic expectation for Donald at
the helm of this offense this year? The book have
his props anywhere from three, three and seventy five yards,
although we have to thirty five hundred. I mean, that's
a yardage total that Kevin O'Connell can get out of
his quarterbacks in their sleep. I mean everywhere he's been,
he's gotten his quarterbacks to that number. Now, Matthew Stafford,
Kirk Cousins a little bit better, I would say, than

(47:16):
Sam Darnold. But what is a real realistic expectation for Sam.
I mean now that he has the best group of
pass catchers that he's ever had in his career.

Speaker 7 (47:26):
Yeah, and it's not even close. I mean he was
playing with I think Jamison Crowder and Robbie Anderson in
New York as his best guys. And that's quite a
bit different from Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. And really
the test case for this as far as the passing
yardage goes, is what Nick Mullins did when he came
in last year. He played a couple of games, one

(47:47):
against Cincinnati, two against Detroit, and he threw it and
threw it and through it and sometimes through it to
the other team and then threw it's more and I
was usually headed in the way of Justin Jefferson. He
almost won all those games because of that. And you know,
Nick Mallins is a career backup type of quarterback, doesn't
have anywhere near the physical skill, but does kind of
have the same mentality as Sam Donald. You're exactly right

(48:10):
to points Kevin O'Connell and say, this guy is not
going to run you know Gary Kubiak's offense from the
Denver Broncos in two thousand and two or something like,
He's going to spread it out, air it out, throw
the pass, throw a lot of passes with Sam Donald
and just live or die with what's going to happen there.
And really another test case was even when Josh Dobbs

(48:31):
barely knew the offense, there was a game they played
against Chicago where they were running the ball effectively and
it was still a two to one pass ratio and
Dobbs through something like three or four picks. I mean,
that's just who Kevin O'Connell is. It's what he believes
in is being a pass first offense and building everything
off of that. And so with Donald, I think that
you know, we might be in for something like the

(48:52):
year that Jamis Winston through thirty interceptions. I mean, if
if they're really going to play that way, I mean
he kind of O'Connell does kind of remind me of
Bruce Arians a little bit. No risk it, no biscuit.
So I think something like thirty three hundred yards. I mean,
I think it's hurt and he has been banged up
through his career because he holds onto the ball too long,
So that is a factor if you're betting on that.

(49:13):
But if he's healthy, it might be forty five hundred yards,
twenty touchdowns, twenty six or something like that from Sam Darnald.
I think it's going to be a pretty wild ride.

Speaker 1 (49:22):
So, Matt, we talk about wide receivers being matchup proof, right,
you know, is Justin Jefferson quarterback proof though? You know,
like can he go out there? He's a thousand yard
receiver every year of his career. Even in ten games
last year still almost reached eleven hundred yards, still was
targeted one hundred times, even with Sam Donald throwing him

(49:43):
the ball. Is this a guy that's going to go
out and go for thirteen hundred plus yards because that's
the line we're looking at baseline, It's thirteen hundred point
five receiving yards. That's where Vegas has him.

Speaker 7 (49:57):
Yeah, and that's where I would go back to those
Mullins games where you know Nick Mallins is not accurate
and doesn't throw the ball very hard, and yet still
I think that Justin Jefferson came up with like three
hundred and fifty yards or something like that in his
two games against Detroit when Nick Mallins was playing quarterback.
And the thing I noticed in watching back Sam Darnold,

(50:17):
because the thing is he's had some really good stretches
in his career for a guy with such bad numbers.
It's just the downs have been so far down. But
when you look at how he played in Carolina at
the end of twenty twenty two, he pretty much pumped
the football to DJ Moore, and I think DJ Moore
is pretty good. He's definitely not Justin Jefferson. But it
kind of shows you that these quarterbacks who are not

(50:40):
Kirk Cousins, who's going to go through his reads really
effectively on a play to play basis, is gonna check
it down make the smart decisions. You know, Jefferson still
put up huge numbers with Kirk Cousins, all time great numbers,
but I think if you're Donald you're probably looking more
to lean on wide receiver one even more and forced
it to your wide receiver one, which in training camp

(51:01):
we've seen that be a good thing at times where
there have been plays in practice that didn't look like
the ball was really supposed to go to Justin Jefferson,
but he caught it anyway because he jumped over to dudes.
And that's what Justin Jefferson can do. And I kind
of go back and forth on it sometimes because Jefferson
would really want Kirk Cousins to force the ball to him,
as all great wide receivers do, and sometimes he get

(51:23):
a little flustered by it, and I thought, well, careful
what you wish for, because Sam Darnold might be throwing
it into all kinds of traffic. But I think the results,
especially with TJ. Hockinson down for at least the first
four games, maybe more than that, and Jordan Addison does
have an ankle issue that may keep him out maybe
a week or two weeks into the season, Justin Jefferson's

(51:45):
going to get the ball like crazy. And I do
know from Kevin O'Connell's standpoint, he's built this entire offense
surrounded on getting Justin Jefferson open, and nobody has ever
really been able to solve it on a consistent basis.
I still have super high expectations for his numbers this year.

Speaker 4 (52:03):
So this backfield, I'm trying to find the right word
to describe this. As I look at the depth chart
of just Aaron Jones and Ty Chandler, I think maybe
I'm going to go with incomplete. Matthew, they got to
add another back here, right. Aaron Jones has been in
a committee with AJ Dillon throughout his career. Here, seven
hundred yards is his prop. Now he's reached that in
any season that he's played at least thirteen games. But

(52:25):
this is a guy that's going to turn thirty years
old this year. They're not going to just truly rely
on just him, right.

Speaker 5 (52:30):
Yeah.

Speaker 7 (52:31):
I was waiting for a call today to see if
they needed me in the backfield because they have only
three players there if you include fullback CJ. Hamm, who
I don't think they want running the football very often.
They must have somebody in mind, because I was a
little surprised that they cut Kenney wong Wu, who's been
their kick returner with the kick return allegedly coming back
this year, and to move on from him with a

(52:52):
little bit of a surprise. I think they might want
ty Chandler back there returning kicks. I think if Kevin
O'Connell had it his way, he would be playing Aaron
Jones about ninety percent of the snaps. Now, I don't
think that that's possible to do, but Aaron Jones is
head and shoulders above ty Chandler, and I think they
do need to look for another veteran that could actually

(53:12):
be reliable if they if they lose Aaron Jones, because
I don't think they really trust ty Chandler with the
pass protection, which with Kevin O'Connell we were just talking
about it. They're going to throw and throw and throw
and throw. I think dy Chandler, if I'm not mistaken,
ty Chandler had more pass protection snaps last year than
Aaron Jones, or it was very close, and Jones was

(53:33):
a starter and ty Chandler barely played. So it's a
very important part of this offense is the pass protection,
and I don't think they trust Chandler that much. So
we're going to see a lot of Aaron Jones and
then RB three, whoever you might be out there. Maybe
RB three's listening right now welcome to the Viking.

Speaker 2 (53:53):
We've got about thirty seconds.

Speaker 1 (53:54):
But again I mentioned that six and a half seven
and a half win total, depending on the book you're
looking at, voting aside that what could be for this
team if you're just looking at this roster, and again
it's led by Sam Darnold and the injury to T. J. Hawkinson,
whatever uncertainty, Jordan Addison, backfield, you name it, what's this
team going.

Speaker 2 (54:12):
To finish at?

Speaker 7 (54:14):
I've got them at either eight to nine or nine
and eight and nine and eight might be a little rosie.
So I think they're a bit of a scary team
for people to put.

Speaker 6 (54:22):
That t on.

Speaker 7 (54:22):
But I would go a little bit over just because
I think decent enough and good enough coaching will always
put a team over being horrendous. I guess if teams
like team, a team like the Jets last year could
win seven, I think this team can.

Speaker 1 (54:36):
Matthew Coller does a great job covering the Vikings for
Purple Insider. Get him on Twitter at Matthew Caller Again,
that is co L L E. R. Matt really enjoyed it, man,
We'll talk again soon.

Speaker 2 (54:47):
Yep, thanks for having me absolutely all right, we're gonna
step aside.

Speaker 1 (54:50):
When we come back the NFL networks, Adam Rank will
join us to break down his Chicago Bears.

Speaker 2 (54:57):
We're back gear.

Speaker 1 (54:58):
As you heard the Gambler with Adam kaff It's been
one final team to talk about as we tore around
the NFC North, and that is the Chicago Bears, who,
despite expectations around the Lions, excitement around the Packers, I'm
not sure there's a team in this division that I
am more curious about, more interested to actually watch and
grow and develop than this team right here, and a

(55:20):
man who certainly feels all of those same things to
degrees that.

Speaker 2 (55:24):
Are probably unhealthy if we're being honest. Adam Rank.

Speaker 1 (55:28):
You know him from NFL Network. You should also know
him from the Sick Podcast with Adam Rank, which he
will tell you is the sickest Chicago Bears podcast around.
Get him on Twitter with the podcast at Sick Pod
Adam Rank and on Twitter at Adam Rank Ranker.

Speaker 2 (55:45):
How are you, bud Well.

Speaker 6 (55:47):
I'm wonderful and it is so glad, so happy to
be on with you tonight, and I know, listen, it's
been a long time, so it's great to be in
your presence once again.

Speaker 2 (55:57):
Too long, way too long.

Speaker 1 (55:58):
And I'm sure that's how you feel about, you know,
the Chicago Bears being in contention to truly entertain and
win something. This is not justin Fields Chicago Bears anymore.
It is the Caleb Williams era, and not just him.
An offense that is loaded up. You already had Dj Moore,
Keenan Allen has added another first round pick wide receiver

(56:20):
Rookie Romadunze from Washington. You bring in DeAndre Swift, one
thousand yard running back. Obviously Cole Kmet is there. Gerald
Everett has added, There's a lot of talent on this offense.
How does it all gel together under not only obviously
Matt Eberflus, but a new offensive coordinator in Shane Waldron
from the Seahawks.

Speaker 6 (56:41):
Yeah, I think the most different, the biggest difference for
the Chicago Bears and the offense all of it becomes.
It all comes from pre snaps. There's just a confidence
and a level of understanding that Caleb Williams has that
I feel was the biggest thing that was missing with
Justin Field. And not to knock Justin Field, I was
very sided when they drafted him I thought he was

(57:02):
going to be the quarterback of the future. I even
sat there and kind of straddled the fence trying to
appease both sides of the Chicago Civil War. When you
have half the community wanted them to trade the number
one pick and build around justin fields, and then there
were people who are steadfast in believing that Caleb Williams
was the guy. And I truly believe that the people

(57:25):
that were on the side of Caleb Williams, and I
think most people swung over, if not on Draft night,
especially once we started seeing him in action. So I
am curious, I am I am very I'm interested as
you are to see how this all develops, how it
all gels. There's a lot of new faces, but Caleb
brings a level of understanding to the Chicago Bears quarterback

(57:48):
position that we haven't seen I don't know, maybe ever.
And I was a big cutler guy, but I don't
think we've ever seen somebody this sophisticated.

Speaker 4 (57:55):
And what is a realistic expectation for Caleb? Books have
his lines set it right aroun thirty five hundred yards now,
just fourteen rookies in NFL history have ever gone over
that number, most recently CJ. Stroud last year, passing touchdowns
around twenty one and a half. What are we expecting?
How is Shane Waldron going to use him? Is he
going to be more of a pocket quarterback or are
we going to see him do a little bit of

(58:16):
everything like he did throughout his college days.

Speaker 6 (58:19):
I think we're going to see a little bit of everything.
We started to see it in the preseason. I know
in the game against the Bills. You know, this is again,
this goes back to what I was talking about. Of
the things that are the most impressive about him is that,
you know, he was he had a big slide. He
had a big run that resulted in a slide, and
anybody who's seen hard knocks knows that that is still

(58:40):
a skill that he needs to work on. But he
really does. He really diagnosed it in such an intelligent way.
Talking about the way the Bills we were rolling a
lot of single high safety and then they saw that
they had drafted the guy back because Roma Dunde was,
you know, running the post, and that was supposed to
be the target because they thought they had single coverage.

(59:00):
But then they rolled coverage and then he looked to
Cole Kmett and then he looked at DJ Moore and
both recovered, and then he made his decision to run.
And that's a big difference from what we saw out
of Justin, who is Hey, if my guy on the
outside is not open, I'm running and I'm just talking
it and I'm running it and I'm not doing anything else.
Caleb is making his progressions, and I think that there's
a there's again a certain level of sophistication to the

(59:24):
way that he plays quarterback that I think we're going
to see some running. We saw it in the game
against Cincinnati. But he certainly has the ability to throw
the football, so I think that right there, he might
not break the jinks of the four thousand passing yard
season that has eluded to Bears quarterbacks throughout their history.
But I think thirty five hundred's good. I think, you know,
twenty twenty five touchdowns is good. They do, as you mentioned,

(59:47):
have DeAndre Swift, who last year would have had an
incredible year, but he was tackled on the one yard
line six times, and each time the Eagles were just like,
you know what we're gonna do the brotherly shop, You're
like he can't give. Andrew Swift is one time one
one of those. And I say this from experience because
I had him in fantasy.

Speaker 5 (01:00:06):
I've been there.

Speaker 6 (01:00:07):
Well, we've all been there, right, So they're going to
lean on the run. They kept a lot of running backs.
They did not trade Khalil Herber, at least of my knowledge.
I've been out coaching U ten soccer, so I might
have missed it if it did happen.

Speaker 7 (01:00:19):
But still there, I understood what They're still there.

Speaker 6 (01:00:22):
They still got it. And then they brought in Dayless
Jones to run the football. So I think they're they're
going with a hospod, a stew of weapons for Caleb
Williams to wear. He's not going to have to do
at all.

Speaker 2 (01:00:33):
What does that mean for Swift though, because last year,
his only year with the Eagles, was really the only
time he's ever been a featured running back where he
got the kind of workload that he did the three
previous years with the Lions, more of a complimentary piece.

Speaker 6 (01:00:46):
You know.

Speaker 1 (01:00:46):
He was always around five hundred, five hundred and fifty yards,
hit six hundred once. Last year though, was when he
got to a thousand. The books have him at six
seventy five and a half all the way up to
seven fifty and a half depending on where you look.
But again, the ghost totals still shatter anything that he
did with Detroit. So are we going to see, you know,
especially if if Williams is running around a little bit,

(01:01:09):
is Swift going to be used more like he was
in Detroit or more like he was with the Eagles
where they also had a mobile quarterback.

Speaker 6 (01:01:16):
I believe the Eagles are the better comp uh, as
far as the numbers go. I think that he's going
to be the featured back. He's going to be the
one who gets all the first two down carries and
all that stuff. And Herbert factor in and maybe Roshan
Johnson gets in there, and Bayless will have his his
package of plays. But really they want to establish it
with DeAndre Swift. Remember when the when when the free

(01:01:37):
agency window opened, the Bears made no hesitation to go
out there and get DeAndre Swift. There was some scuttle
bought that perhaps they could be targeting Sakuon Barkley, but
they really love what they had in DeAndre Swift. There
was some familiarity there. Obviously, he was in the division
Obviously Ian Cunningham still has some connections with the Eagles
and everything like that. And and truly his number or

(01:02:00):
are worse because the Eagles run the brotherly shoved and
the Bears are not going to do that. If they
get near the one yard line, they're going to give
DeAndre Swift his opportunity. So I feel like his touchdown
totals will likely go up, and I think his rushing
touchdown or is running rushing totals will be somewhere the
same of what he had last season with the Eagles.

Speaker 4 (01:02:21):
Just a fantastic wide receiver corps that that that Ryan
Pols has assembled here. You got DJ Moore and Keenan
Keenan Allen. Both guys were coming off seasons with over
twelve hundred yards. You got a top ten pick in
Roman Dunsa. How does this all shake out? Is there
going to be truly a dominant, you know, number one
receiver with this team or is everybody going to get

(01:02:41):
everybody going to get a little piece of the pie.
How do you see this playing out with the receivers?

Speaker 6 (01:02:47):
I believe that DJ Moore is going to be the
most targeted guy. Early on in the season, we saw
it a couple of times.

Speaker 4 (01:02:52):
As a matter of.

Speaker 6 (01:02:53):
Fact, Caleb missed Roman Dunsay, you know, running wide open
and trying to get the ball and look for DJ
Moore on third downs and things of that nature. So
for me, the early part of the season is going
to be dominated by DJ Moore and Keenan. Allen's going
to factor in and he's going to go out there
and do his thing by the enemy. By the end
of the year, I really believe that Romadonsay is going

(01:03:16):
to end up like establishing himself as the top passing
option for the Bears. Obviously, we've seen the chemistry between these.

Speaker 2 (01:03:24):
Two immediately last week.

Speaker 6 (01:03:27):
You know, we saw the pass that was a pretty
nice conversion down near the goal line, and the most
impressive one was the pass that didn't even count, the
one that Caleb threaded the needle. Roma Donday came down
with it but was out of bounds. And when you
think about that, it's preseason, you don't really get too
worked up about it, but you're what you're trying to

(01:03:49):
find out is is he's looking at the right spot?
Is he throwing it to the correct spot? And really
it was just a matter of Roma Dunsay just getting
a little bit of a mix up that you know
he'll clean that at some point, so I'm not really
concerned about that rama. Dunzey will end up being that
dude at the end of the season. I think it's
probably a big reason why the Bears locked up DJ
more immediately, so there will not be any sort of

(01:04:12):
dissension or hey, you know, maybe they'll trade me or
something like that. I think they wanted to go out
there and get that settled. But truly, I think that
Roma Dunzay is going to be the top guy, and really,
in any other draft year, he would have been the
top receiver off the board, but you know, with Malik
Neighbors and Marvin Harrison Junior, it just didn't work out
that way.

Speaker 1 (01:04:32):
Adam, We've got like thirty seconds. But this team, it's interesting.
Eight and a half, nine, nine and a half. That's
the preseason win total. Depending on the book, does it
make more sense. I'm curious if you go over a runder,
but does it make more sense to invest in the
team to make or miss the playoffs versus the win total?
Because that is essentially an even money bet. What's the
best bet of the grouping.

Speaker 6 (01:04:53):
Find a playoff total is the thing for me. I mean,
if you look at what happened last season, people get
it twisted. They did not have the number one seed
because they were a bad team. That was Carolina's pick.
The Bears won seven games last year. They lost three
games where they had over a ninety percent chance of
winning in the fourth quarter. Caleb makes the difference in
those instances. To me, it's a double digit win team,

(01:05:16):
and double digit win should get them into the playoffs.

Speaker 1 (01:05:19):
Adam Rank again from The Sick Podcast with Adam Rank
covering the Chicago Bears, also of course from NFL Network.
Get them on Twitter at Adam Rank. Adam Oh is
a pleasure, bud. We'll talk soon.

Speaker 6 (01:05:30):
The pleasure was all on this side of the phone.
Thank you so much for having.

Speaker 2 (01:05:33):
Me Hour number two of The Gambler with Adam Kaufman.
You're on WRKO.

Speaker 1 (01:05:39):
We got you of course for another hour halfway home.
It's good to be with you as always. Thanks for
being with us. Check out the podcast if you're not
listening Live The Gambler with Adam Kaufman. Wherever you get
your podcast, rate review, but more than anything, subscribe. Be
part of your I don't know, lunchtime, break, morning commute,
wherever you have time for a podcast, out for a
walk with the dog, whatever it may be, and maybe

(01:06:01):
pick up some good insights on where to throw your
money if you're looking for a little entertainment value in
that way, we are here for you, hopefully cashing some
bets with us, or just using the information to formulate
your own opinions. That's okay too. We welcome free thinkers,
just like the guy that we welcome to the show here,
Eric Linquist, good friend of the program. You know him
from odd Shopper and Stochastic on Twitter at Eric Lindquist.

(01:06:26):
He hosts Lindy's Leans, Likes and Locks and so much more,
and is making appearance number nineteen with us Lindy welcome.

Speaker 8 (01:06:35):
Oh that's my birthday, September nineteenth, so happy early birthdays
in me. And that's my lucky numbers. So anytime somebody
just brings that up out of the blue, it's gonna
be a good show.

Speaker 6 (01:06:46):
Man.

Speaker 1 (01:06:46):
I'm just looking ahead. You're gonna have Thursday night football
on your birthday this year, so don't celebrate too much.

Speaker 8 (01:06:51):
Sure, I am, well, I mean it can't be any
worse than two years ago when I had fifty friends
and family run out a bar for the Eagles Viking
game and they lost by thirty plus and they had
to deal with me the rest of the night. So
it's only uphill from there. By the way, let's talk
about the NFC door.

Speaker 2 (01:07:08):
Well, yeah, are you sure it's uphill? Though?

Speaker 4 (01:07:10):
Because he's on your birthday? You're gonna get the Patriots
on national television. That's just not gonna be fun for
anyone except for maybe Jets fans.

Speaker 2 (01:07:16):
Bet the under.

Speaker 5 (01:07:18):
It's fitting.

Speaker 8 (01:07:19):
It's fitting because I'm looking at a seven and a
half win total that I'm just gonna cham the under
on and if we somehow exceed it. Actually I don't
know if I'll be happy or not. It depends because
that was still in the playoffs at eight and nine
or anything of that capacity. So yeah, Patriots on my birthday.
JJ McCarthy is dinged up, Our pet heads are falling off.

Speaker 5 (01:07:38):
It is a tough tough time in Minnesota.

Speaker 1 (01:07:41):
Well, I mentioned earlier that you are a self loathing,
self hating Minnesota sports fan, Viking certainly being on that list.
But I'll tell you what, Matthew Caller from Purple Insider
was on with us earlier and he's going over he
and every other guest to talk to us as a
matter of fact about the teams in this division, looking
toward the over on these clubs, and so you know,

(01:08:04):
I'll mention some of the futures that we have already
placed as a show in a little bit. But what
are your overarching thoughts on the NFC North and where
it makes sense for people to put their money.

Speaker 8 (01:08:15):
It becomes a question of how good you think Caleb
Williams is going to be, because I think we have
an entire year of sample size of seeing how good
Jordan Love is. Jordan Love is an exceptional quarterback. Jared
Goff runs purer than anybody on planet Earth. As far
as the schedule goes, for the first sixteen weeks, sixteen
weeks of the Detroit Lion season, they play one game indoor,

(01:08:37):
are outdoor?

Speaker 5 (01:08:38):
Excuse me?

Speaker 8 (01:08:38):
So fifteen games that they are going to play indoors,
So unbelievable schedule for them. They're going to be at
their highest there. Caleb Williams, if he ends up being
that dude for the Chicago Bears, I do think that
there are tons of offensive weapons picking up Adunze from
Washington in the draft. Keenan Allen, who you know, it's

(01:08:58):
kind of able how he's been in the preseason so far,
but still going to be an above average wide receiver
no matter what way he slights it. And then of
course the proven mister Dj Moore. So across the line
for Chicago, if Caleb Williams is functional, they're going to
be a very competitive team in this division. And if
he's as good as what you would expect the number

(01:09:20):
one pick to be as high Wee Towda, if he's
been throughout the last couple of years, it could be
a Bears team that really flips the division in a
very serious way.

Speaker 4 (01:09:29):
Lindy, do you think Justin Jefferson is truly quarterback proof here?
Because I'm trying to figure out a way to a
future for the Vikings this year and I'm maybe talking
myself into Justin Jefferson going over his yardage prop which
I think is right around thirteen hundred yards. Yeah, it's
right exactly at that. He's obviously smashed that multiple times
in his career when he's fully healthy. But now he's
got Sam Darnald. Maybe Nick Mullins, who know, you know,

(01:09:52):
throwing to him this year.

Speaker 8 (01:09:54):
What's the beautiful part about that is Sam Darnold is
really known as a guy who keys in on his
first rd. Biggest issue has been he's been he hasn't
really found an opportunity to get off of that first
right into a second. We've seen that with the Jets,
him and Robbie Anderson in their chemistry times in Carolina
with Dave J. Moore, and then going into last year
obviously a backup in behind Shanahan, one of the sharpest

(01:10:16):
coaches in the NFL. I think it's been a pretty
good couple of years, and you get to keep the
bubble rap on the arm, you get to keep the
bubble rap on him mentally. I do think Kevin O'Connell,
coming from Sean McVay, coming from LA I do think
that Kevin McConnell is the right guy in Minnesota. So
that's covered and I know that Sam Donold is going
to see in on.

Speaker 5 (01:10:36):
The first guy.

Speaker 8 (01:10:37):
So everything you're saying about justin Jefferson makes sense. I
looked at the thirteen hundred. I guess for me, the
big issue I have with pulling the trigger on that
now is you get to the end of the season scenarios,
and it is very likely that after the Giants on
the road, we run really really poorly as far as
the beginning schedule goes. If for one in five, one,
and six, if this is a football team that isn't winning,

(01:10:58):
you could see Justin Jefferson shut down for Week sixteen
seventeen eighteen. Now it's not the most likely scenario, but
it's definitely in the cards based on how we treated
him throughout last year with the hamstring injury with a
team that wasn't really that competitive. So I get a
little bit worried when you start talking about those end
of season scenarios where a guy could legitimately be shut

(01:11:19):
down that prevalently if we end up being more competitive,
that won't end up happening. But I will say that
that's definitely on my radar.

Speaker 1 (01:11:26):
Is there a player prop in this division that stands
out to you more than any other? Because you know,
something we've been talking about with some of our guests
is that there are some tough teams to handicap in
terms of where's the offense specifically going to come from.
Like with the Packers, you don't know which wide receiver
to attack in terms of, yeah, he's gonna go over
on his receiving prop or you know, is DeAndre Swift

(01:11:49):
going to be used the way that he was with
the Eagles or more like the way he.

Speaker 2 (01:11:53):
Was with the Lions? You know, how do we go
after him with the Bears? Obviously?

Speaker 1 (01:11:58):
I mean there are so many examples of it. You know,
it's not everyone is as matter of fact as a
healthy justin Jefferson. So what stands out to you?

Speaker 8 (01:12:08):
Yeah, Aaron Jones. So this is one that I've been
going back and forth on quite a bit with Lofe here,
and it's something that I know that he was very,
very keen to. But Aaron Jones comes from a Green
Bay situation that PFF was graded right around fourteen last
season throughout the entire year as far as their offensive
line grade. He goes to Minnesota that was thirteen. That
was not a major issue for Kirk Cousins. It's ironic

(01:12:31):
because Kirk Cousins struggled with having an offensive line his
entire tenure with the Minnesota Vikings, and yet it shows
up the season that he ends up losing out on
his achilles and that's a big bummer obviously as a
Viking fan. But you look around the industry on Aaron Jones,
there are some pretty short prop projections on him for
the season long. I'm trying to find the exact number

(01:12:52):
that I ended up. When I was in New York
with Lofty, we went back and forth extensively about Aaron Jones.
Because ty Chandler, as good as what he is, you
don't go out and acquire in Aaron Jones, who Mike
McCarthy will continue to be my favorite Packers coach of
all time because he limited the touches during Aaron Jones' prime.
Not only was it good then because we were winning
more football games, but now we're getting a fresher version

(01:13:15):
of Aaron Jones. And I know Lofe we went through
our top three that we had for the entire season,
and he had Aaron Jones rushing number. I'll find that
exact number here as we go, but that was one
that definitely invested in already this preseason.

Speaker 4 (01:13:30):
So when we look at the odds board when it
comes to winning the NFC, the NFC North has three
of the top eight teams on the market. Here, Lindy
do you think that the NFC North is the division
that's representing the NFC in the Super Bowl here. I mean,
the Lions are a very sexy pick for people this year.
The Packers are a dark horse. The Bears, who know.
I mean, I highly doubt it, but you never know.

Speaker 5 (01:13:52):
You never know.

Speaker 8 (01:13:53):
And I do think Detroit because of the offensive line
play number one graded PFF, number one on everybody's board
this season. David mcgo has proven he can take a
workload and Jamior Gibbs can be that explosive back if
he doesn't even have to play forty forty five percent
of snaps to start off the season. As the year
goes on, you can give Gibbs more touches. He can
be more dynamic in that passing game. You have Alm

(01:14:14):
and Rossing Brown and Jamison Williams, who I think is
kind of the X factor of the entire offense. This
is a guy coming out of Alabama who was a
can't miss wide receiver prospect until he tears his ACL.

Speaker 5 (01:14:24):
I believe it was.

Speaker 8 (01:14:25):
In the SEC Championship game, and we really kind of
rid him off for two years where we didn't see
him til the very tail end of his rookie year
last year, working through a lot of those injury concerns
and very limited snaps, put in bubble wrap himself. If
he shut the field for Detroit, this could be a scary,
ridiculous offense on a day in, day out basis. And

(01:14:46):
not to mention Sam la Porta going number one on
a lot of people's boards from a fantasy perspective because
he does everything you want out of a pass catching
tight end and can still stay in there with that
offensive line get it done in the trenches. So Detroit
offensively juggern not the pass rush with Aiden hutchetson. You
go through this entire division and I think Detroit is
rightfully twelve to one to win the Super Bowl best

(01:15:07):
available number of DraftKings and FanDuel. They would definitely be
the sessy team to be able to take anybody out there,
but Green Bay Jordan Love another year. You have four
or five wide receivers that are extremely functional within that
passing game and the defense that I actually prefer over Detroit,
not as ideal, not just playing in a dome, being
there in Lambeau for them, and then Chicago. They are

(01:15:29):
such an X factor in the division so no out
about it. If you told me there is one division
that I had to bet on amongst any division to
represent it, it's the NFC North purely because of the
depth more so than it is there's one or two
individual teams that I want to be targeting from it.

Speaker 1 (01:15:45):
So, Lindy, some futures we have given out in the
NFC North, just to few so far, and actually all
at plus money. These are the official show futures the
Lions to win the division at plus one thirty on FanDuel.
These are all FanDuel Jared Goff, Dan has landed up
a couple of quarterbacks Goff at forty five hundred plus
passing yards plus four forty and Love five thousand. Actually

(01:16:07):
five fifty, oh that's right, yeah, five fifty on DraftKings.
I had to bet it at four forty on FanDuel
because I can't use DraftKings, so five point fifty. Thank
you for correcting me on that. Over on DraftKings Love
we did both get on FanDuel plus one thirty at
four thousand plus passing yards. We have not yet given
out any futures for the two teams we talked about tonight,

(01:16:28):
the Bears, and the vikings, which you know, well, we'll
do if we have.

Speaker 2 (01:16:32):
Anything by the end of the show. Certainly weigh in
on any of those if you would like to.

Speaker 1 (01:16:37):
But what I want to ask you is the same
question that I asked our Bears guest to Adam Rank,
because I think this is where I'm headed with my future,
and I just don't know the best way to attack it.
I have high expectations for the Bears, not you know,
go out and wreak havoc on the NFL expectations, But
you know, I don't know if it makes more sense
to go with the even money of make the playoffs

(01:16:58):
or going over on their win total, which you can
get as low as eight and a half.

Speaker 2 (01:17:02):
What do you think?

Speaker 8 (01:17:05):
So I think the best way to explain this is
to go back in time. Patrick Mahomes was a prospect
that I felt like I couldn't miss on and not
patting myself on the back because you go to last
year and I kind of got the inverse of that
lesson with CJ.

Speaker 5 (01:17:18):
Stroud.

Speaker 8 (01:17:19):
I thought, there's no way an Ohio State quarterback is
going to be functional in the National Football League. When
have we ever seen that they have the best skilled
position players in Ohio State on a year in, year
out basis, I feel like Caleb williams college experience fall
somewhere in the middle of them. Patrick Mahomes nobody at
Texas Tech. You go to Ohio State with CJ. Stroud,
absolutely everybody, and the cap told me two different things

(01:17:41):
with them. I think the truth of Caleb Williams life
somewhere in the middle. He made some spectacular plays in
preseason around the back, moving left, throwing across his body,
ridiculous accuracy, a lot of really great things, but it's
kind of what you expect from a number one prospect.
How about another number one prospect in Trevor Lawrence, and
you go through the board down the line and you

(01:18:02):
see high upside plays from Trevor Lawrence. You see extreme
downside seasons like we had last year for Trevor Lawrence.
It's really hard in the National Football League when teams
can make adjustments for you to be able to just
say you are this or you are that, until we
can just flat out see you play on the field
on Sunday, and I think we'll have a lot more
explained to us with Caleb Williams. Then you could be

(01:18:25):
looking at a very very positive VV bet or a
very very negative EV bet based on how that first
week looks, because you'll finally see him at game speed
and how it looks. You knew immediately with c J. Stroud,
you knew immediately with Patrick Mahomes. If we know immediately
with Caleb Williams, which I think is the more likely outcome,
I think, how do you want to attack this with

(01:18:45):
the Bears is just say what is their ceiling? What
is the upside as far as price goes, because if
he's that dude, they have bought in on the offensive side,
bringing in Swift, bringing in Allen drafting againza they are offensively.
We've never seen a number one pick how this type
of repertoire ever, and we probably never will again. So

(01:19:07):
I would be shooting for the tippy top. I would
be looking at Super Bowl futures. I would be just
shopping those across the entire board, because right now, the
Jets are a sexy pick, Detroit's a sexy pick, and
I think the Bears thirty five to one, forty to
one I saw earlier in the season. These are the
kind of numbers that I think you want to jump
on now before week one, have a small play on it,

(01:19:27):
and if you're able to get more down later on
that specific number. There are going to be infinite amount
of hedge opportunities, especially if they're as good as what
you think they could be.

Speaker 1 (01:19:37):
Eric Linquist, Odd Shopper and Stochastic again host Lindy's Leans,
Likes and Locks. Although I haven't seen them give out
a lock in a while, it's been a lot of
leans and likes.

Speaker 8 (01:19:45):
You can get them on Twitter easy.

Speaker 4 (01:19:49):
It's called baseball Adam.

Speaker 2 (01:19:50):
Yeah, there really isn't. Thank you again yea for.

Speaker 3 (01:19:57):
Be next Thursday.

Speaker 2 (01:19:58):
It really does. Get Lindy on Twitter at Eric Lindquiz.
Thanks Bud. We'll talk for appearance number twenty next time around.

Speaker 8 (01:20:06):
Can't wait. Thanks guys,

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