NFC South Betting Preview

A recap of our NFC South Team By Team Previews. 

Falcons: D. Orlando Ledbetter (@dorlandoled)
Buccaneers: Greg Auman (@gregauman)
Saints: Matt Paras (@matthew_paras)
Panthers: Steve Reed (@stevereedap)
NFC South Futures: Brandon Anderson (@wheatonbrando)

Follow Our Picks On The Action App: https://t.co/n1DpkYHKV5

Listen to The Gambler with Adam Kaufman Monday-Thursday from 10-Midnight on WRKO on the iHeartRadio app!

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:02):
Back here on the Gambler with Adam Kaufman. Thanks for
being with us. If you miss any of the show,
check out the podcast, search that full name wherever you
get your podcasts, rate review, most importantly those subscribe. Of course,
four weeks. For month and a half, we've been going
city by city, team by team across the NFL, and
as mentioned earlier, it is time for the final division

(00:24):
that we have yet to cover, and that is the
NFC South. We begin with the team that most, including me,
expect to win this division, and that is the Atlanta Falcons.
And you'd be hard pressed to find someone better to
talk about them then d Orlando led Better get him
on Twitter at d Orlando Led, He writes for the

(00:44):
Atlanta Journal Constitution de Orlando, Welcome to the show.

Speaker 2 (00:48):
Hey, thanks for having me.

Speaker 1 (00:50):
Absolutely, thanks for being here with us, and listen just
hearing you. I know the excitement that is happening in
Atlanta right now for this new era. You got the
new head coach, Raheem Morris. Of course, you know, a
former interim head coach for this team years ago before
the Arthur Smith era. A new OC and Zach Robinson
as well, both previously worked under Sean McVay with the

(01:11):
Rams a new quarterback. Clearly, Kirk Cousins era is underway
after getting that big fat contract in the off season,
but also confounding a lot of people when Atlanta went
out and drafted Michael Pennix junior eighth overall out of Washington.
So let's start at the quarterback position. What is the
health situation around Kirk Cousins right now and just general

(01:33):
expectations in that QB room going into the new year.

Speaker 2 (01:38):
Yeah, he's been medically clear.

Speaker 3 (01:41):
He's taken part in all of the off season activities.
They've moved him around in the pocket. He hasn't taken
any hits or any live bullet.

Speaker 2 (01:51):
But he looks fine.

Speaker 3 (01:53):
You know, it looks like the Achilles as he covered,
and you know, all systems are go for Kirk Cousins
open at quarterback when they played the Steelers or September Day.

Speaker 4 (02:06):
That's awesome news. I think for not just you know
Falcons fans, but I think for Betters too, Di Orlando,
because I'm looking at what the what the books have
is his yardage prop at this year at thirty eight
hundred yards. I'm going way over on this Kirk Cousins
when he's healthy man sixteen games. As long as he
plays sixteen games, he is well over four thousand yards
in every single season in his career. Now he gets

(02:28):
Zach Robinson, who's gonna want to air it out. But
what is the expectation for Cousins this year in this offense?

Speaker 3 (02:35):
Yeah, I think all the expectations are very high. You know,
they have a lot of weapons that they drafted here.
They've drafted you know, Bijon, Drake London and Kyl Pitt
and now it's time for him to distribute the ball,
hit the them and you know, make this a potent offense. Again,
He's a quarterback that knows how to read defenses. You

(02:58):
know the deep well I was not there, you can
check it down. They also time to Darnell Mooney from
the Bears, who had a thousand yard seasons a few
years back. So yeah, they've surrounded him with weapons. They
have a good run blocking line. They're not going to
drive back and throw it forty times a game, but.

Speaker 2 (03:17):
They do have some potential potency.

Speaker 1 (03:22):
What's the offense going to look like? You know, you
just kind of alluded to it a little bit, but
you know, I just sort of think back to, you know,
Kirk Cousins time, primarily obviously with Minnesota, not that they
didn't run the ball a lot. I mean, we know
what a force Dalvin Cook was, but it was a
show Cousins and Justin Jefferson, especially in the last few
years here, at least before Cousins injury. But when you

(03:45):
have a weapon like Bjon Robinson, who in many ways
is much more Christian McCaffrey like than he is Dalvin
Cook like, and more dangerous in some of those ways,
and clearly young and has his whole career in front
of him, like they're there aren't a lot of you know,
not a lot of tread on those tires just yet.
Is this going to be a really balanced past run attack?

(04:07):
Is Bejon's just going to be utilized that much more
in the passing game and therefore Cousins stays equally active.
What does this look like again under a new OC.

Speaker 3 (04:18):
Yeah, they said they want him to be Christian McCaffrey
in this offense. Coming out he was compared to Ladanian
talentson and you know, I don't think they're gonna get
in the EIGEH formation and run behind Lorenzo O'Neil, because
they don't even have a fullback, so that's not gonna
be in play.

Speaker 2 (04:36):
We got to look at more.

Speaker 3 (04:37):
Of the San Francisco approach, where you know, you got
the bottom McCaffrey on the edges, you got to him
in space, you threw him screens. But yeah, Jon's gonna
be focal point of the attack, no question about it.
And then they'll throw off of that. And that's more
dictated by the fact that this offensive line is a

(04:57):
run blocking line. They've been on the top run blocking
lines in the league over the last two years under
Arthur Smith, and so there's no reason to deviate from that.
So Bijon is the kingpin here and this attack. And
then they can throw it to Kyle Pitch, they could
throw it to Drake London, they could throw it to

(05:18):
Darnell Mooney. They got options when they do decide to
throw it. But it's not it's not Eric Coriel, I
don't believe that they're gonna do that. You know, kind
of look at the rams with Todd Gurley. I don't
know if Bijon could beat all that, but they certainly
gonna try to run the ball and they stay, Hey,
he's a running back. We're gonna run it, and then

(05:41):
you know, we'll get to all these other weapons in
the attack.

Speaker 4 (05:44):
So since we're talking about Beijon one, I got to
bring up one of the things that just drove me
absolutely nuts last year, guys, and that was that Tyler
El's year had twice as many carries inside the five
yard line and as Bijeon did last year. Arthur Smith,
I don't really know what he was doing, what he
was thinking when you have a up in like Beijon there,
but de Orlando is Algier still poised to just vulture
some carries from him. I mean, Bijeon carried the ball

(06:07):
two hundred and fourteen times last year year had one
hundred and eighty six. That was way too close in
my opinion.

Speaker 3 (06:13):
Yeah, I think that's way too close. I don't think
it'll be that close this year. Algier Doug do a
better job. But with the runs after the tackle, he
is a red zone weapon. But I do believe they're
gonna spread it out and maybe run Gijon behind Kyle
Pitt like the Factors used to run Jason Snelling behind
Tony Them dollars, you gotta pick your poison and you're

(06:35):
gonna jump the tight end, You're gonna jump the running back.
So I do believe that that that won't be the breakdown.
The ratio won't be that high for our year. Although
he's value in the fact that he can get some
tough yards for you and so forth. So, uh, he
will be a factor, but not to that degree. I

(06:55):
don't see that at all.

Speaker 1 (06:58):
So we've been talking about cousins obviously in this passing game,
which again Bijon Robinson expects to be a part of.
Out of the backfield, you've you know, mentioned all the
key components, Drake London, Rondale Moore, Darnell Mooney, Kyle Pitts,
you know who looked good last year after a down year,
you know last year, and I guess you know, we'll
give Pitts his due, But in terms of the pure

(07:21):
wide receivers, it was you know, Drake London or bust.
But now there are actual viable weapons around him, most
especially Rondelle Moore. You know, we really got a sense
last year of what he was capable of in that
Cardinals offense. So how much do some of these guys
pull away from London? Do you think or is London
still that clear cut number one focal point in the

(07:42):
offense outside of Bijon.

Speaker 2 (07:45):
Yeah, London is.

Speaker 3 (07:47):
And they suffered a Rondelle suffered an injury in Miami,
so he's out for the year. And Ray Ray McCleod
as the sleeper guy there. He's gonna be the guy,
uh opposite of Darnell Mooney. So Ray Ray McLeod will
be your third down guy, your feed guy, and your

(08:08):
guy that will get you some tough catches. They're they're
really talking about him as a receiver when he's been
mostly a returner throughout his career. So Rondell was that
was a big loss for them.

Speaker 2 (08:20):
Uh, they haven't replaced him.

Speaker 3 (08:22):
And so Ray Ray McCleod, who you know, worked with
Ike Hillier when he was with the Steelers and he
worked with him, Uh, you know, did a good job
with coylech run here and out in San Francisco. That's
the wild card. That's the wild card and a guy
that Okay, if you got Pitt in Bijon on one side,

(08:43):
you got Ray Ray and London on the other side,
So you got the massas there. Now, Ray Ray's never
produced at that kind of level. So we'll see if
he can do that for the Falcons.

Speaker 4 (08:55):
So I want to bring it back to Drake London
for a second, to Orlando, because this guy has a
you know, uber talented, but has yet to have a
one thousand yard receiving season in his NFL career. I
think he can blame a lot of that, a lot
of that on the quarterback play for the Falcons the
past a couple of years. Now he has Kirk Cousins
throwing him the ball. His line has set it at
one thousand yards pretty much across the board here. Do

(09:17):
you think that London has his first one thousand yards
season coming up?

Speaker 2 (09:21):
Yes? I do, Yes, I do, because he's been so close.

Speaker 3 (09:25):
Even when the bad quarterback played Marks Marioda and Desbert
Ritter that you know, they still knew how to get
him the ball. He can get contested catches, he's there,
poor Man's Michael Evans and you know, back back shoulder.

Speaker 2 (09:39):
Throws were a big staple of the attack.

Speaker 3 (09:44):
Now you can maybe do some in cutting routs with him,
kind of AJ Brown, Think Aj Brown with the Titans.
He's a big guy and he goes and gets the ball.
So yeah, I think with some more accurate pass and
he is more of a weapon and certainly a thousand
yard receiver in this attack.

Speaker 1 (10:03):
We've got the Orlando led Better hanging out with us
talking Atlanta Falcons. He of course covers the Falcons beat
for the Atlanta Journal Constitution. We're going to step beside
and we come back more with the Orlando on Atlanta
after this. We're hanging out here with the Orlando led
Better of the Atlanta Journal Constitution previewing the twenty twenty

(10:25):
four Atlanta Falcons. A lot of talk, understandably, so it
has been about Kirk Cousins here since we've had you on,
of course, coming back from that torn Achilles and just
dire straits Minnesota Vikings fans. There's still recovering, especially what
happened to JJ McCarthy. It is the Sam Darnold are
there now. What I'm wondering though, is how does Michael

(10:47):
Pennix fit into this equation. Is there any version of
this season short of obviously Cousins getting hurt that Pennix
factors in and actually plays outside out of garbage time?

Speaker 2 (11:04):
I don't think so.

Speaker 3 (11:05):
They did trade Tyler Heinekey tonight, so he's clearly the
number two quarterback.

Speaker 2 (11:11):
Now.

Speaker 3 (11:12):
You know, they explain to us that, hey, we did
not want to see a future without a quarterback.

Speaker 2 (11:20):
Kirk Cousins thirty six.

Speaker 3 (11:22):
Matt Ryan was thirty seven when they decided to move
away from him. He's got guaranteed money for three years.

Speaker 2 (11:30):
He got one hundred million for.

Speaker 3 (11:32):
Two, so they plan on him being the quarterback for
at least two, maybe passing the torch in year three.
And only thing we have to look at is Kansas
City when they had Alex Smith, and you know, they
didn't play Patrick Mahomes until late in that year, and
then when they saw enough, they was like, okay, we'll

(11:52):
trade out to Washington. So you know, Kurts is fine
with that. He's like, hey, good quarterback I valued in
the league. So whether it's this year or second year,
third year, he knows he's going to be passing the
torch to Michael Pinnick.

Speaker 2 (12:08):
So I'm on a two years, maybe three year plan.

Speaker 3 (12:12):
This year, I don't expect to see Michael Pinnick in
anything other than mop up situation.

Speaker 4 (12:20):
So the Falcons obviously have bigger hopes than just winning
the NFC South. I mean, with all the noise they
made in the offseason bringing in Kirk Cousins but de Orlando.
For them to get there, the defense is going to
have to improve and step up this season. This was
a really weak pass rush last year. They finished tied
for twenty first in football with just forty two sacks.
They trade for Matthew Judin from the Patriots. They bring

(12:42):
in some other defensive pieces too. They really hit the
front seven in the draft after that Pennix pick. How
is the defense shaping up this year? Do you expect
that unit to be improved?

Speaker 2 (12:53):
Yes?

Speaker 1 (12:53):
I do.

Speaker 2 (12:54):
They also picked up Jason Simmons.

Speaker 3 (12:57):
From Justine Simmons I'm sorry, from the Bronco to another
safety that can help Jesse Bates back there. They don't
have a right cornerback. They okay with the nickel position,
but they beat up upfront. They are really intent on
stopping them run. You know, Raheem's coming from the Rams
where he had Aaron Donald. He's got you know, Grady

(13:19):
Jarrett up front. Not Aaron Donald, but Grady Jarrett and
two time Pro bowler, not an eleven time Pro bowler.

Speaker 2 (13:27):
But he's got something upfront to.

Speaker 3 (13:29):
Go with Judin, And you know Eddie Goldman, Danie O Yamada,
they got bodies. They got bodies up front to try
to stop the run and make the back end of
that defense a little bit better. So there should be
some market improvement on that side.

Speaker 5 (13:45):
Of the ball.

Speaker 1 (13:47):
Well, this team has a preseason win total, as I
mentioned earlier, of nine and a half. It's by most
accounts a very easy schedule. Four of the first five
games at home. Admittedly for the first five also against
twenty twenty three playoff teams, but strength to schedule, you know,
as based on last year to where they are this year,

(14:09):
it's very easy, very easy. Based on again win loss
records for the teams that they are playing. Also, twelve
out of the seventeen games thanks to Dan for digging
this one up are indoors, which only helps. Obviously the
mix of this group. So when you're looking at it,
I mean heavily juiced Atlanta to make the playoffs, you know,

(14:30):
reasonably heavy favorites to win the NFC South as well.
The only thing that we can really look toward at
that point in time is does this team win double
digit games? Do you see this as being a ten
plus win team?

Speaker 2 (14:44):
Yes, I do.

Speaker 3 (14:45):
I do. Like you said, I see them taking their
lunch early, but I do see coach Rahiem and you know,
his staff putting it together.

Speaker 2 (14:54):
They've got some challenges.

Speaker 3 (14:56):
Early on, so that'll expose any problems that they had.
And he did a great job of fixing a lot
of things here early on in his uh you know,
tenure with Dan Quinn when he came in as an
intram head coach, saw major adjustments for him from him,
and I think he'll be able to do that as
they you know, face the Steelers, the Eagles, the Chiefs,

(15:18):
the Saints just to open things up. Uh So, you know,
and then he's got to get that train on the
track and get it moving and not lose to the
teams that they were losing to last year under Arthur
Smith's you know, the Titans, the Bike in Arizona. Uh,
you know, got games like that. So it's gonna be
a matter of Okay, take your blunt, take your take

(15:40):
your take your hits, get knocked down, come back up
and fix it. And he's got to be able to
do that. And he's got to be able to do
that with two first time NFL coordinators and Zach Robinson
and Jimmy Lake on the defensive side of the ball.

Speaker 4 (15:57):
De Orlando, I think the only guy we really haven't
hit too much on with you yet is Kyle Pitts.
Three years ago, when he was a rookie, he was
a one thousand yard receiver when he had Matt Ryan
throwing him the ball. Past two years, he hasn't come
anywhere near a thousand yards.

Speaker 2 (16:11):
Now.

Speaker 4 (16:11):
His yardage prop for this season sitting at seven point
fifty on the low end. You can get up to
seven to seventy five on the high end if you're
looking for an under there. But how does Pitts look
this summer? Does he have chemistry with cousins? What are
you expecting out of him?

Speaker 2 (16:26):
Yeah, yeah, I'm taking that. I'm taking you know.

Speaker 3 (16:28):
No, I don't bet you can't do that, But yeah,
I would take seven fifty seven seventy five because their
relationship has been key to how.

Speaker 5 (16:40):
The offense is gonna move.

Speaker 3 (16:42):
Like I said, I think b John's gonna be first option,
Kyle's gonna be second, and I think Drake will be third.
So he's gonna they're gonna put him in situations where
he's got mismatches. He's not gonna be an inline blocker
all the time. They're gonna move the map tied.

Speaker 2 (16:59):
And you know, I was like, hey, I.

Speaker 3 (17:01):
Don't see him running a lot of wide receiver routes.
But they're right away with me at practice said oh no,
let see when they got in the red zone there
they put him outside. They got him running wide receiver route.

Speaker 2 (17:15):
In the red zone. So I do believe he's gonna
be a factor.

Speaker 3 (17:19):
His tight end coach Kevin Cooler, who was with the
Chargers former Michigan Titian, said Hey, I started a sixty
one yard catch his rookie year against Buffalo. I need
to see more of that. I need to see Kyle
playing faster. So that's what they've been stressing, like Kyle,
you gotta play fast, no knee injuries. He's recovered from
the surgery and the expectations are high, and he's in

(17:43):
the contract year.

Speaker 2 (17:44):
So I do.

Speaker 3 (17:44):
Believe that he's going to be a mega force this
year for the Atlanta.

Speaker 1 (17:50):
Falcon Are there any long shot I know, like you said,
you don't bet, but are there any long shot bets
that you think do make sense? And when I mentioned that,
I mean, like Kirk Cousins to you know, win comeback
Player of the Year or b Jean Robinson to be
the NFL's rushing yards leader or rushing touchdown leader, that

(18:13):
type of thing.

Speaker 3 (18:16):
Uh No, I don't see that because Kurt's gonna check
it down and I don't know if B John's gonna
get a little load three hundred carry type a load
to run it like that. But maybe he does get
the touchdowns and the catches and the so forth that
Christian got last year with the forty nine ers. If
he does that, the Salplons are definitely going to the

(18:37):
playoffs and he would definitely be a candidate. So he
would be a lone shot candidate for me if I
had to take that one.

Speaker 1 (18:46):
All right. De Orlando led Better again does an incredible
job covering the Falcons for the Atlanta Journal Constitution. You
can get him on Twitter at d Orlando lead That
is led de Orlando really enjoyed it, man. We'll have
you back again soon.

Speaker 2 (19:01):
Sure, no problem, Adam and Dan, thanks for having me.

Speaker 1 (19:07):
It's the Gambler with Adam Kaufman. Thanks for hanging out
with us. We're going team by team across the NFL,
each and every city getting boots on the ground, people
that are in these meetings, talking to coaches, talking to players,
giving us the insights that are so much closer than
to what we have here as to what to expect
in the twenty twenty four season. We're on the NFC South,

(19:30):
the final division that we are previewing. As mentioned earlier
last night, Falcons. We still got the Saints and Panthers
to get through next week before kickoff on Thursday, one
week from tonight to begin the season. Right now, to
close out our work week, a focus on the Tampa
Bay Buccaneers and to help us out with that, none
better than Greg Auman covers the team has for a while,

(19:52):
the Bucks, specifically since twenty thirteen he works now for
Fox Sports. Covers this team and the entire NFC South,
perhaps the entire NFL. Greg, how are you welcome to
the show?

Speaker 2 (20:03):
Hey?

Speaker 6 (20:03):
Doing well, doing well?

Speaker 5 (20:04):
Thanks for having me.

Speaker 1 (20:05):
Absolutely so this team. You know, Dan here just brought
up before the break, are the Bucks being disrespected because
it is a group that has won the division three
straight years? You know, they certainly are a high floor
kind of team. Provided it looks anything like last year
between Baker Mayfield coming off the career year. Mike Evans

(20:26):
is consistent as hell so long as he's on the field.
Chris godwins, same story. I think Rashad White is more
than capable out of the backfield. You got Todd Bowles
back there for a third year. And yet for a
lot of people, and me included, it's a lot of Falcons.
Falcons falcons with the way that they've remodeled themselves, and
they are the favorites to win this division. How do
you see it?

Speaker 6 (20:47):
Yeah, I don't know if it'll be quite as separate
as it is. I think the lines have Atlanta like
two wins Tire nine and a half versus seven and
a half for over Unders. Maybe'll be closer than that,
but now, I don't know. I think those two probably
within the game of each other, could very well kind
of finish like this past season where the first and
second and division had the same record and it comes
down to a tie break or.

Speaker 2 (21:06):
Something like that.

Speaker 6 (21:08):
Bucks and Talkins go week five and week eight. They
play each other, so kind of both of them out
of the way early and if one either one can
can sweep too from the other, that'll go a long
way towards an easy path to a division title.

Speaker 4 (21:21):
So Greg last year, Baker Mayfield has a career year
in his first year in Tampa, putting up career highs
in yards with over four thousand and twenty eight touchdown passes.
His offensive coordinators changed this year for him. Liam Cohen
is in, Dave Canalis is out now the head coach
to Carolina. So what is Baker going to do for
an encore performance here in Tampa Bay? And I'll can
just give you his props right now. The books are

(21:43):
expecting right around thirty five hundred yards for him in
twenty two and a half touchdown passes. But what do
you make of Baker for this season?

Speaker 6 (21:50):
Yeah, I mean the challenge is just can he do
it again with another first year coordinator. It's like he
was with Lee and Colin for six weeks with the
Rams in twenty two, so they know each other kind of,
you know. I think that definitely helped Liam Cohen get
the job, is to bring in somebody that would help
them keep Mayfield really, you know a lot of the
same cast from a throwing perspective, I think their offensive

(22:10):
line will be improved. They put their first round draft
pick into a center from Duke named Graham Barton, you know,
used a third round pick on the receiver named Jalen
McMillan from Washington. Looks really good. So I think it
should be improved on offense. You just don't know how well.
Just you know, it's the chemistry still there. I mean,
you're bringing everybody back for the most part, you know,
from a team that's won together a lot. It's just

(22:31):
it's just hard to duplicate that success. It's another first,
first place schedule, so they literally played before teams that
were left in the conference championship games. But they're still
in the division that's fairly easy to win.

Speaker 1 (22:43):
So last year, and granted this has only been around
for a couple of years, but last year was the
first seventeen game season for Mike Evans. He's got some
sixteens in there, but he is you know, all the
way down to thirteen at points throughout his career. Nevertheless,
every single year dating back to twenty fourteen when he
entered the league, he is a thousand plus yard receiver,
which the books reflect. We're looking at you know, baseline ten,

(23:07):
twenty five and a half on his receiving yards, eight
and a half receiving touchdowns. He had thirteen last year.
We know this guy is a model of consistency. Obviously,
other than injury, heaven forbid what gets in his way?

Speaker 7 (23:21):
Not much.

Speaker 6 (23:21):
I mean he's also like a really safe bet for
one hundred and fifty targets. I mean, get to the
ball a lot. I think he has the same streak
going with sixty five catches every year, that kind of thing. So,
I mean, you know, you don't know, if you know
McMillan starts cribbing into the total. If Godwin is healthy
and active, he's probably one hundred catch receiver. You know,
Mike Mike tied to the NFL leading touchdowns last year,

(23:42):
but didn't have the same volume in catches. But no,
like you said, if he's healthy, he's going to get
a ton of catches, ton of targets. And it's hard
to I mention him not getting too a thousand as
long as he stays healthy.

Speaker 4 (23:54):
How about Chris Godwin also been a model of consistency
down there in Tampa. He's been over a thousand yards
three straight years. I know they tried to move him
to the outside for a little bit last year, but
eventually did put him back in the slot. I believe
his prop for this year is only eight point fifty. Though,
is McMillan going to Is McMillan more of a concern
for Godwin's production than Evans?

Speaker 2 (24:15):
It could be.

Speaker 6 (24:16):
I mean, Godwin is such a I mean, they really
trust him. I mean they're gonna have him on the
field a ton, So I think, you know, if McMillan
really takes well, it's hard for rookies to jump in.
You know, Godwin was the third round pick like McMillan,
and Godwin had I think eight catches in the first
half of this rookie year, so you know, I think,
you know, Chris Godwin's been really consistent in terms of
high volume catches, high volume yard The problem is that

(24:39):
his touchdowns have gone down like four years in a row.
I forget his exact numbers, but it's like nine, seven, five,
four to two in the last five years. So he
just to get back in the end zone. You know,
that was kind of where Mike Evans really tried last year.
But I think they'll get him back closer to that,
you know, six to eight touchdown range this year. That
age fifty seems like a good bet. Like you said,
McMillan's the only real threat to that. Don't have much

(25:00):
in the way a tight end. They'll throw to the backs.
But I think again, he's going to be a high
volume receiver if he stays healthy. Aight to fifty shouldn't
be tough for him.

Speaker 1 (25:09):
What do we make of Rashad White Again, another guy
who's been durable, hasn't missed a game in his two
years in the league. Last year basically doubled his workload,
more than double as a matter of fact, when it
came to carries and reflected in the stats, you know,
jumps from four hundred eighty yards up to almost a thousand.
The touchdowns climbed from one to six. That's just carrying

(25:29):
the ball. Receiving that didn't change all that much. I mean,
he is a guy who so far at a minimum
fifty receptions about three hundred yards, but last year had
five fifty and again active in the end zone in
the receiving game as well, So he's all purpose. He
can do quite a bit when we're thinking about his influence,
though on the ground, the books basically have split the

(25:51):
difference between his rookie and sophomore years seven to seventy
five and a half is the prop at its lowest.
What do we expect in terms of a workload and
potential time share as well as well there in the backfield.

Speaker 6 (26:03):
Yeah, I think the biggest wildcard of that is Bucky Irving,
Who's they're running back, their rookie running back at ore again,
Who's a lot like Rashad White, good pass catching back,
shifty little guy. I don't know right now. There's all
these variables with Rashaqua White in that he's been their
primary back, but they've also had the worst run offense
in the NFL last the last two years in yards

(26:25):
and yards per carry. I think bringing in Barton, upgrading
their offensive line.

Speaker 2 (26:30):
Will help that.

Speaker 6 (26:31):
I think heaven Lea and Comb will help that. You know,
Canalis was certainly committed to the run, but I don't
know if they did a lot to make it hard
for defenses to know what was coming, and that's why
it was particularly ineffective. So I think will be a
better run game. I just don't know if Rashada we
will have the same share. I think McCaffrey was the
only back in the NFL that played a higher percentage

(26:52):
of snaps than Rashad White last year, and that's probably
not a smart path to take. So I think you'll
see Bucky irving Cribbin his totals not only in plays,
but also in the news, in target and in rushes.
So he'll have a smaller percentage where shot. I'll have
a smaller percentage of a better run game. But I
don't know if that works out to a net gain

(27:12):
in terms of him having a better fantasy value or
a better chance of hitting these overs that he had.

Speaker 4 (27:19):
So Greg want to talk about the defense for a
minute here. When the Bucks won the Super Bowl four
years ago, it was a major strength of the team.
They were six in the NFL and yards allowed. It
kind of slipped a little bit the next two years
with Brady still there, and then last year they're twenty third,
third in the NFL and yards allowed. The pass rush
was an issue last season. They tried to address that
a little bit. But what do you make of this

(27:40):
defensive unit? Is this going to be a strength again
a weakness? How is that going to play out?

Speaker 6 (27:45):
I think they'll be better. They'll be better on the
back end. They really struggled with interceptions last year. Traded
Carlton Davis away to Detroit. They'll have a new starter
got to actually played the Fairmount last year in Zion McCollum.
Definitely upgraded his second safety spot and getting Jordan Whitehead
from the Jets. And I'll have a new nickel in
a rookie named Tikee Smith from Georgia. So basically three

(28:06):
new starters in the secondary. Passwash is definitely a question mark.
They're really young at outside linebacker. Four of their six
guys on roster our first or second year, they're guys
they like a lot. Yah Yadiabi was the guy that
came in last year out of Louisville, had a really
good rookie year. He could be double digit sack guy.
Colijah Cantsey on the defensive lines, and that a guy
they really like. In year two, it's hard to know.

(28:28):
I mean, there's there's three guys that were staples of
that Super Bowl defense that are gone now. Shaq Barrett
was cut, Devin White they let him go to Philadelphia,
and Carlton Davis got traded to Detroit. So that's three
guys that were really mainstays of all five years of
Todd Bowles's defense, but also had seen their play drop off,
So I think how well the new pieces fit in

(28:50):
in their place will go a long way toward whether
it's a great defense or just a good one.

Speaker 1 (28:57):
So you mentioned earlier the preseason win total for this
team and to pay where you look, but seven and
a half eight and a half wins after winning ten
games last year, including that playoff game, three out of
the first four games at home. Also closed the season
with a couple of games at home, So I think
the schedule in that regard is favorable. But if you're
handicapping what to expect from this team, are we going

(29:18):
to see them go the bucks go above five hundred?
Do you like them to, you know, a plus money
investment to make the playoffs? Where do you put them
here in this division right now?

Speaker 3 (29:28):
Yeah?

Speaker 6 (29:28):
I think it definitely be overrun wins, especially at seven
and a half. You know, this is one where they
won the division at eight and nine, then they won
the division at nine and the eight. Like you said
early on, the guts and winnable games. They'll get rookie
quarterbacks in two of the first three weeks. They'll get
Jayden Daniels in week one, They'll get Bone Nicks in
week three, both on their home field. You know, they'll

(29:49):
get Carolina twice. So it's both a tough schedule and
also a really easy schedule because there's a games on
there that they should really be able to win. In
terms of playoffs, I think they can too. I don't
know that there's a well KRT that comes out of
the South right now, but I think they're at least
a nine and eighteen, maybe a ten and seventeen of
things go right. But yeah, it's one of those where,

(30:09):
you know, if the UNFC shakes out like we think,
I don't know if nine and it gets into the
wildcard right now. So it could be they have a
winning record and don't get in, or it could be
that they get an extra win and edge out the
Falcons and win four straight division titles.

Speaker 4 (30:22):
How do they do you think they stack up against Atlanta?
I mean, obviously those two matchups are going to be
a lot of fun, and they come both in the
month of October. While looking at that right now, they're
October third and then October twenty seventh. Again, how do
they stack up against the newly Kirk Cousin led Atlanta Falcons.

Speaker 6 (30:38):
Yeah, that'll be the trick.

Speaker 7 (30:39):
I mean Atlanta.

Speaker 6 (30:40):
You know last year, you know, it was a good
team that just didn't have anything at quarterback. You know,
I think they had seventeen touchdowns and seventeen interceptions in
seventeen games. So went out of their way to address that,
you know, spent big on Kirk Cousins, used the top
pick on Michael Panics. So if Cousins is healthy, if
Cousins is the one guy we saw in the first

(31:00):
half of twenty three in Minnesota, They're gonna be much improved.
There'll be a touchdown a game better on offense than
they were. I still have a little questions about them defensively,
even adding Juden. I don't know that they have a
great pass for USh right now, a little untested in
the middle of that defense. But they also have a
really easy schedule. I mean, they have a third place schedule,
so they have a leg up in that. You know,

(31:21):
we're in the Bucks are playing Lions and Eagles and
some of these tougher teams. San Francisco, the Falcons don't
have to worry about that. They've got three games on them.
So the Bucks are going to have to be actively better,
you know, in the common game is to make up
for that tougher schedule. I don't know if that adds
up to the three wins or not.

Speaker 1 (31:41):
Greg Almond covers the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the rest
of the NFC South for Fox Sports. Has been on
the beat for a while. We greatly appreciate his time.
You can get Greg on Twitter at Greg Ahman. That
is a U M A N. Greg, Thanks so much. Man.

Speaker 6 (31:56):
All Right, you guys have a good one.

Speaker 2 (31:57):
Take care.

Speaker 1 (31:58):
Back here on the Gambler with Aim Kaufman WRKO again,
we come your way ten to midnight Eastern normally Monday
through Thursday. But hopefully everybody had a nice, RESTful, relaxing
Labor Day weekend, the final relaxing weekend probably before football starts,
depending on what you do. Certainly, for us, this is
this is the ramp up here. But there are no complaints,

(32:19):
this excitement, this is the stuff that we look forward
to on the calendar, at least we do. Let's find
out if that is the case for the people that
need to travel and cover these games in person week
to week. Matthew Paris Matt Paris joins us here New
Orleans Saints Beat reporter for The Times, Picky Yun and
The Advocate. Get them on Twitter at Matthew Underscore Paris.
We're gonna be talking about the New Orleans Saints as

(32:39):
we continue our tour of the NFC South. Matt Welcome
to the show.

Speaker 7 (32:42):
How are you hey, Thanks for having me.

Speaker 5 (32:44):
I'm doing great.

Speaker 1 (32:46):
How's the excitement level there in New Orleans for the
new year?

Speaker 8 (32:50):
Oh?

Speaker 7 (32:50):
You know, it's actually pretty Uh.

Speaker 5 (32:53):
I don't know.

Speaker 7 (32:53):
Fans are ready for it to happen, but this is
a team that you know, Shaints fans are very loyal,
but there's a lot of strely not a lot of
interest nationally about the team, and there are some anks
locally about what direction this franchise is heading in. What
are they doing? You know Camdy win with Derek car
and Dennis Allen. So there have been better days in

(33:15):
New Orleans for that fan base, but I think they
are ready to see if this year is any different.

Speaker 1 (33:22):
And it is the third year under Allen. As you mentioned,
Derek Carr, the quarterback, Alvin Kamara's back, although it was
an interesting offseason for him that we'll get into. Chris
Alave looks poised to really take his games yet another level.
Some mainstay names are gone, the likes of Michael Thomas,
Jimmy Graham, even Jamis Winston. But this team, I think

(33:42):
appropriately is sitting at a preseason win total of seven
and a half because on the one hand, it's a
little talent deficient, but on the other the schedule is
arguably the easiest in the league. And so, you know,
how does this team get to eight nine wins, you know,
get to potentially above five hundred, especially with the new
OC and Clint Kubiak coming over from the Niners.

Speaker 7 (34:04):
Yeah, you know, they really have to. It's really about
surviving that those first seven weeks of this season, it's
pretty loaded. Uh, it's a pretty loaded front end of
the schedule. You know, after Carolina, which is the cakewalk,
they based Dallas, then they they Philly a couple of
weeks down there, they play Atlanta that there's also a

(34:26):
Chiefs game in there, and then Week seven is the
game everyone is excited for and that's uh, Sean Payne
and ver Bronco's coming to town. You know, that's the Broncos.
May not be a duggernaut, but you know, Sean Payton's
going to get up for that game and that could
put Tennis Allen in a very bad spot going into
that game. There say two more and then they get
pants by Denver, so that that's the matchup the circle.

(34:50):
But if they can survive that stretch, okay, then you know,
you look at the back half of their schedule, it's
the Giants, it's the Commanders. There are definitely some winnable
games in there that it could. You know, I haven't
finishing iron Eate, but a lot of people also are
a bit down on them and have them anywhere between
that seven and ten range, like seven twins to ten wins.

(35:12):
That's kind of the the foe and the ceiling for
this team.

Speaker 4 (35:16):
I think, Matt, what should fans and betters expect from
a Clint Kubiak offense as the Saints try to implement
a little bit of that San Francisco style, maybe more
motion stuff like that. But the past few years has
just been pretty much feed Alvin Kamar as much as possible.
Are we still going to see a lot of that
or is the ball going to be spread around a
lot more?

Speaker 7 (35:34):
It's going to be spread around a bit. I think
the two guys besides Kamara that'll be heavily heavily involved
or Chris o'lave. You know, he's the clear number one
in that receiver room that they would like Reshutahu to
take that next step. He had a promising last year,
but still I think a lot of it is going
to be the go through guy for Derek Carr. And
then the other one is Tastom Hill. Now, Tasom Hill

(35:56):
is thirty four years old, but Clint Kubiak came in
here and he's really carved out a role that's not
cute similar from what Hill has been in the past.
You know, he's been kind of that jack of all
trade for them in recent years. But I really do
think he's going to be more of a conventional running
back and more of a conventional full back. He's going

(36:16):
to fill a lot of different roles for them in
this offense to where you know, if you told me
that Tasom Hill was their second leading rusher at the
end of the year, I don't think I would be surprised.
He's really been. I think there is kind of a
clear role for him in this offense. It's just how
much DoD they actually rely on him, you know, being
thirty four years old now and can he withstand the

(36:37):
physicality that comes week to week. But you know, I
think they would like to use him as much as possible.

Speaker 1 (36:44):
Well, and obviously that's with Alvin Kamara, that's with Jamal
Williams as well. And so if we're looking at Kamara,
and granted he you know, missed some games last year,
he only played in thirteen, but you know, the yardage,
the production, the yards per carry, all of it. I mean,
basically league career lows didn't even hit seven hundred rushing yards.
He was below four in terms of the rushing yards

(37:06):
on average per attempt. You know, we're looking at props
this year baseline six twenty five and a half is
the lowest people could bet an over on if they
wanted to. Four and a half is the line for
touchdowns as well. He did have five in only thirteen
games last year. And again I'm talking purely rushing numbers.
He was more active in the air in terms of
receiving yardage and targeted a boatload of times all of that,

(37:28):
But what should we expect from his workload and maybe
more to the point, the actual production that stems from it.

Speaker 7 (37:36):
Yeah, I think it's a really spot online just because
he is declining. He's declined the last three years now.
I think it's an interesting situation he's in because he
wants a new contract. He's been pretty open about that.
He skipped the last day of mandatory mini camp back
in June to kind of voice his frustrations regarding that.

(37:57):
But there really hasn't been any common ground in it
to the Saints. You know, Kamara is twenty nine years
old now, he's been on the decline, so I think
there and you can get out of his contract after
this season, so I think.

Speaker 2 (38:09):
They're very hesitant to pay him.

Speaker 7 (38:11):
But I'll give you the optimism side from what they're
saying is that they believe this offensive scheme with Clint
Kubiat can rejuvenate him. That it's going to be a
lot of wide zz running that you've seen kind of
around the league. That this is going to help him
disguise runs a little bit more or just kind of
do the same things over and over and dress it

(38:32):
up different ways. You know, he has looked explosive at
times in camp. He I think he's looked better than
he has last year. But it just can keep it
up over a full season, And what is his role
that you know, his long term future doesn't look bright,
but I think they can maybe get one more season

(38:52):
out of him.

Speaker 4 (38:53):
So when you look at Derek Carr's numbers from last year, Matt,
he plays all seventeen games, throws for close to thirty
nine one hundred yards, twenty five touchdowns, only eight interceptions.
Not bad numbers just looking at a box score, looking
at his Pro Football Reference page. But I think even
if you asked Derek, it was a pretty frustrating year
for him. And I think that's probably why the sportsbooks

(39:14):
have his projections for this season so much lower than
it was a year ago. You can find his passing
total just as low as three three and twenty five
and a half yards. He has been over that and
just in Yeah, every single season since his rookie year
he has gone well over that number. But what should
we expect from Derek Carr in the Kubiak offense here
this year?

Speaker 7 (39:36):
Yeah, a few things about that. That number does seem very low.
I mean, even though that Clint Kubiak does really want
to run the ball and I think it'll be a
core identity of this offense, it still feels like, you
know they'll be in situations or he's forced to throw.
He's very good at rocking up for the lack of
a better word, garbage time yards when they're trailing in

(39:56):
the fourth and getting guards that way. In terms of
what they can expect, though, I mean, he this system
does seem to play the Derek Carr strengths. You know,
it's going to rely on a lot of play action,
a lot of quick time short throws, their time timing base.
I mean that that's Derek Carr's bread and butter, and
so you know, the main question I have with him

(40:17):
is can this offensive line protect him well enough? Because
that's the thing we haven't talked about yet, is they're
replacing three starters up front. They drafted a police foul
again in the first round and flipped him from the
right to the left side to be their left tackle,
but that the major question mark on that offensive line
is a right tackle. With Trevor Penning their first round

(40:37):
pick from a few years ago. He's had a terrible
start to his career and now they're trying him on
the right side because Ryan Ramcheck, a long time started
there is potentially facing a career ending knee injury. So
you know, the line. Whether they can keep Car upright
is a big question.

Speaker 1 (40:56):
Chris Alave is sitting at back to back one thousand
plus yard season. Since he entered the league on low
end on thy forty two as a rookie in fifteen
games this year, baseline receiving prop for him is sitting
at ten twenty five and a half. And you know,
I'm just looking at this depth chart, thinking about this team,
thinking about a potential bounce back out of Car, what

(41:18):
this looks like under Kubiak, all of it, you know,
I mean, never mind going over on a lava. Should
we be thinking this could be a twelve thirteen hundred
yard season?

Speaker 7 (41:27):
Yeah, I think so. I mean I think any time
he's on the field, he's kind of been the go
to guy for them. I mean, I think he's poised
to have a really strong season. He kind of gained
weight to try and add that physical element to this game.
He's raved about Kubiak and how this offense, you know,
gets guys open and takes advantage of the yards after

(41:48):
the catch. So I do think that the thing was
Chris a love. I think the thing that he suffers
from is that there are so many good receivers around
the league, and even though he's had a great start
to his career with those two back to back a
thousand yard seasons, he kind of gets lost in the shuffle.
But you know, just on the surface him being a

(42:08):
number one receiver, I think he lives up to that role.
And then you know, with Michael Thomas go on, there
was a little bit of an awkward dynamic last year
when Michael Thomas was so healthy, was they were kind
of trying to needle this thing of trying to get
Thomas the ball in Feto Lave and Derek Carr's connection
but both of them was kind of shaky at times.

(42:30):
But I think after Thomas got hurt at the pecking
order kind of shook itself out. Love had a pretty
good close end the season, and I think we're going
to see that continue in twenty twenty four.

Speaker 4 (42:42):
So, as Adam mentioned earlier, the win totals at seven
and a half for this team to make the playoffs,
plus two to h five to even win the division
at plus four ninety Matt, how do you see this
this season playing out? Are the Saints a playoff team
or are those offensive line issues going to come back
to bite him just be too much to overcome.

Speaker 7 (43:01):
Yeah, I think the offensive line issues and the potential
slow start is I think what can get them in
this hole is because you know, after the first eight
weeks of the season, you know, they face the Chargers
in the week eight. After that, it gets easier. Like
I said before, but we saw this last year. You
know that they hit they hit a drag in the

(43:23):
middle of the season where they were five and six
that they kind of they won four of their last
five games, but by then it was just too late
and you know they were nine and eight, but they
didn't make the playoffs. Like kind of see the same
thing happening again, where that that one lull is going
to cost them. You know, it depends on how all

(43:44):
the other spots shake out. But I just think the
NFC is a very competitive conference and they could be
on the short end of it.

Speaker 1 (43:52):
Matt Paris covers the Saints for The Times. Pick a
un and the Advocate get them on Twitter at Matthew
Underscore Paris. That is pa. R A asked, Matt, thanks
so much for joining us man. We'll talk to you
again down the line.

Speaker 7 (44:03):
Hey, appreciate it.

Speaker 2 (44:04):
Thank you.

Speaker 1 (44:07):
We are down to our final team to preview, not
only in the NFC South, but the entire NFL. Last one, Dan,
It's been a month and a half long journey, but
we're here.

Speaker 4 (44:18):
We're here, We've arrived in Carolina.

Speaker 1 (44:21):
It is possible we have saved the worst for last
not the worst guests, just the worst team. Although he
might very well tell us, are you familiar with the
team that's in your market, the New England Patriots? They
might be in that same conversation, let us bring on
Steve Reid covers the Panthers for the Associated Press there
in Charlotte. You can get them on Twitter at Steve
Reid AP. Steve, how are you welcome to the show?

Speaker 8 (44:43):
I'm doing great, Thank you for having me, and I
think you're about right. The Panthers have the worst record
in the league go over the last six years, and
certainly the worst record last year, So bringing up the
rear is a fitting place.

Speaker 1 (44:57):
I guess, well, two and fifteen last year, as people know,
and you had a preseason win total of five and
a half. Now it's actually climbed. It was four and
a half at one point, in part maybe because of
one a terrible division that we've been talking about for days.
Also a favorable schedule, including four out of the first
five games at home, and some changes. You know that

(45:18):
on the one hand, you could look at and say, okay,
new head coach a QB Guru and Dave Canalis, he's
previously coached up Gino Smith in Seattle Baker Mayfield in Tampa.
Got both those guys to four thousand plus yard seasons
for the first times in their careers. And you know,
now you have Bryce Young who was miserable in a
rookie as a rookie and everybody was, you know, laughing

(45:40):
at him, laughing at the Panthers. How do you pass
on Stroud and you land with this guy doesn't even
get to three thousand passing yards. But I look at
this roster and it does feel like there's some talent there.
And you know, not Jonathan Brooks the rookie yet because
he's going to start off the season, you know, on
pop but second round pick out of Texas once he
is ready high expectations. You have Cuba Hubbard, you have

(46:02):
Miles Sanders, a couple of guys that are you know,
kind of also rans. Deontay Johnson's same story can he
rejuvenate his career? Adam feel and he's you know, closer
to the end than he certainly is the beginning. But
I don't know if it's more name recognition or viable
talent on the field. Can this team surprise some people
this year?

Speaker 5 (46:20):
I think it's possible.

Speaker 8 (46:21):
You know, again, you pointed out the division right division.
You're going to play six games in there, and it's
a very winnable division for any of these teams, honestly,
because you know there is no runaway favorite in the
NFC South. But yeah, they the Panthers. They have a
new general manager and Dan Morgan, and he's well aware that. Listen,

(46:45):
you know they're not going to win the Super Bowl
this year. They know that it's going to be a process,
and they're viewing this as is a is a multi
year process to try and rebuild and get back to
a level uh not only him respectability, but a perennial
playoff team. There was a stretch where the Panthers are
a pretty good football team. It's been a while, but

(47:07):
what they're trying to do is build from within, and
it started this year. And you know, you mentioned all
those guys, but the two guys a lot of people
won't talk about because they spend one hundred and fifty
million dollars on two guards, Robert Hunt Damian Lewis. So
now they've got two guards who are big time players,
big guys. One came from the Dolphins, one from the Seahawks,

(47:29):
and they were in their two premier guards so already.
And then they'd taken Austin Corbett, who was mostly a
guard for most of his career, moved him inside the center.
They got Taylor Moten and a guy named ikey Ikuanu
who struggled last year in his second season at left tackle.
So those are the two tackles mountain in Ekuano. But

(47:50):
my point is this was an offensive line that gave
up sixty five sacks last year, tied for second in
the league. And it was it was, it was a
sieve all year long. And so I think, you know,
one of the things, Bryce Young never never really got
comfortable in the pocket because it was it was it
was a jail break every it seemed like every time

(48:10):
they threw the ball. So he never settled into a rhythm,
never got into a comfort zone. And I'm not, you know,
saying that he didn't have bad season because he did.
He just it wasn't good. But I think this year,
if one of the things Dave Canal has has really
talked about is getting the ball out in two point
seven seconds or less. And so that part of that

(48:33):
is is is designed to help Bryce protect Bryce. Part
of it is to get the offense flowing. And so
that's what they're going to do. And they feel like
they fortified that offensive line and that that's certainly going
to help. And then Deontay Johnson is really going to
be their premise. Their their number one receiver. You got
Adam Thiel and this number two. They drafted a guy
named Xavier Leaguette who was drafted him in the first round.

(48:55):
He is going to be probably the third receiver along
with you know in and out with Jonathan and Mingo
intermixing there. Mingo was a second round pick last year.
So there's a lot of resources they spent on the
offensive side of the ball. Defensively, which had been their strength,
took a hit when they lost Brian Burns. They traded
him to the Giants kind of to replenish some of

(49:18):
that draft stock that they lost with trading so many
picks away for Bryce Young. But Burns was the guy
that wanted a big contract, probably deserved it. They didn't
give it to them, the trade them away. But yeah,
this is it's a team that's very much in the
infancy stages of trying to rebuild or retool, as Dan
Morgan would like to say, but it's gonna take a while,

(49:38):
but there are some pieces in place where, you know,
if they can just make state progress, if Bryce Young
makes some progress, they can win some games that maybe
get to that five and a half you know, you know,
over that five and a half win threshold.

Speaker 4 (49:51):
So, Steve, you just mentioned the pieces that they added
to this offense. What are the chances that Bryce Young
rebounds and puts up a solid year two? You know,
because for better is looking at the season long yardage
prop for Young, it's sitting there at just thirty two
hundred and a half yards, and that's well under two
hundred yards a game. Has some nice pieces now, as
you were talking about, And I also like this number

(50:12):
two because Dave Knalis, ever since he became a passing
game coordinator with the Seahawks four years ago, hasn't had
a passing offense finish with under thirty eight hundred yards
in a season. I mean, we've seen he's gotten career
years out of both Gino Smith and Baker Mayfield. I've
got to think he can do that with a number
another former number one overall pick in Bryce Young.

Speaker 8 (50:31):
I would you know, hey, there's there's certainly that possibility.
And Bryce has looked good in training camp. That's what
I can tell you is he is. He seems a
little bit more confident. He seems to be kind of
developing into a little bit more of a leadership role,
which I think is really important that he needs to do.
And I think he's just he's kind of gotten over

(50:52):
that rookie season and he's ready to go. One thing
about this kid is he's not an up and down guy.
He is even keel. He doesn't let things bother them.
You can't get much lower than two and fifteen. He
went to and fourteen as a starter. The Panthers go
two and fifteen as a team. But he never really

(51:12):
wavered on who he was a lot of guys you'll
see go up and down emotionally, he kind of stayed
stayed the course and you know, and and got to
work this offseason to try and get better, and I
think a coaching staff that is on the same page.
That was one thing they didn't have here last year.
Had all sorts of guys pull them in different directions,
wanting to do this, wanted to do this, the coaching

(51:34):
step it was, it was not. There was not continuity
within the staff, and it's one of the reasons, you know,
Frank Reich getting fired, you know, eleven games into his
first season with the Panthers. So I think, you know,
a lot of it is going to depend around the
of the guys around Bryce Young, you know, Ken Deontay
Johnson creates separation and Adam Thielan come back and have

(51:57):
another good season because quite frankly, in my financial Adamfield
was their their their offensive MVP, maybe the team's MVP
last year. He was really good. You know, you look
at some of his games at it, you know, ten
catches a game and at different points in the season.
He had a really good season and made big plays
on third downs and fourth downs. He was really solid.

(52:19):
And I was surprised because you know, he was, you know,
thirty three now thirty four and he was getting up there.
He had a really good season for him. If he
can come back and contribute and you know, help move
the change with some of the shorter catches and get
open underneath the coverage. I think that's gonna help. They
don't have a tight end, uh really that they can
count on. I think that's a major major weakness in

(52:42):
this offense. They haven't had one really since, uh since
Greg Olsen retired. It's just been a weak spot at
this offense. I think it's something that they've got to
invest in at some point and get a tight end
in here. But you know, the run back situation looks
kind of solid. Jonathan Brooks is probably he's probably going
to be six seven weeks before you see him on

(53:03):
the field. They're gonna the plan is to bring him
along very slowly, understanding that they're not near being a
playoff team. He's going to start season up up and
but he is the guy that's looking forward to down
the road here. I think it's probably going to be
later half of the later part of the first half
of the season that you're going to start to see
him in and in and competing for for playing time

(53:26):
at a starting job. Miles s Anderson looked really good. Guys,
He's been I wrote about him the other day. He's
kind of been on this mission. He's he's very focused,
he's really upset about what happened last year, very very motivated,
sour taste in his mouth, as he told me. And
and he's he's looked pretty good as well in training camp.

(53:47):
You know, hard to say these guys haven't played much
in the preseason obviously, but you know, so, guys, there's
there's some potential there. I don't think, you know, I
think there are several years away from contending for any
type of you know, NFC championship or anything like that.
It's going to be a while. But it's a team
that I think is finally got guys in this on

(54:09):
the right direction. I think Dan Morgan has got a
clear path to what he wants to do. How that
works out going forward, we'll see in all of it. Really,
as you guys know up in Boston, it depends on
the quarterback, right, how does your quarterback develop? Will Bryce Young?
Is he kind of developed he's going to continue to

(54:29):
make Is he going to make steps forward or is
he going to be a bust? And that's going to
dictate where they go over the next five years.

Speaker 1 (54:37):
Steve Reid covers the Carolina Panthers there in Charlotte for
the Associated Press. You can get him on Twitter at
Steve Reid AP. Steve, thanks so much for joining us.

Speaker 2 (54:46):
Man.

Speaker 1 (54:46):
We'll talk to you again down the line anytime. Guys
our number two at The Gambler with Adam Kauffman w RKO.
If you miss any of the show, as always, check
out the podcast The Gambler with Adam Kaufman. Search that
full name wherever you get your podcasts will pop up
rate review most importantly subscribed. We greatly appreciate it, and
we are giving you so much great actionable information in

(55:10):
terms of how to go about betting the NFL season futures.
Team by team of course, looking at the various divisions.
We've given you boatloads of picks, but just good influence
from the boots on the ground, the people in these
respective cities, beat reporters or radio people, TV people, the
journalists whomever that have joined us over the last month

(55:31):
and a half plus from each city, including of course
Matt Parris on the Saints and Steve Reid on the Panthers,
who joined us last hour to wrap up our discussion
about the NFC South, at least in terms of from
within those respective cities. What we like to do, though,
whenever we're capping a division is bring on someone who's

(55:53):
a little bit maybe more well tuned into the gambling
universe and dive into specific futures within that division. And
so obviously we've done everything other in the NFC South,
and we've been saving this guy specifically for this division. No,
not because it is absolutely terrible and we don't like him.

(56:15):
We love him. I don't want him to feel at
all insecure that he is coming on to talk about
the NFC South. It is his own fault, quite frankly,
that this is the division that he is joining us
for because it is the one that he has given
out his boldest take about, because he is on Panthers
Island looking for a worse to first turnaround. I'm talking

(56:36):
about Brandon Anderson that you can get him on Twitter
at Wheaton Brando. He is from the Action Network, good
friend of the program, comes on with us all the
time talking football, basketball, what have you. But he loves, loves, loves,
loves the future space and you would too if you
looked at, you know, his wallet at the end of
a season. How are you ba.

Speaker 9 (56:59):
After an intro like that? How can I not be great?
I'm doing well. I am currently about fifteen thousand awards
into my Futures manifesto that will drop tomorrow with a
pick a future is bat and over under any season
preview for all thirty two teams, Yes, including the for
esteemed NFC South teams, which which apparently are still in

(57:20):
the NFL so.

Speaker 5 (57:21):
We can make money off of them too. It's all right,
they don't have to be fun to make us money.

Speaker 9 (57:25):
I'm doing well. I am ready for actual games soon.

Speaker 1 (57:29):
Well, that's for damn sure. We're eager to get this
thing started. Tired of talking about these teams lead up
and looking forward to talking about them in progress. And
since you are giving out all those picks on every
single team, before we let you go in a little bit,
we'll have to, you know, find out what you've got
in mind for the new England Patriots. Give people a
little bit of a spoiler before that article does drop
on the Action Network website. But futures that we have

(57:50):
given out within this division so far official show futures.
We are on Kirk Cousins four thousand plus passing yards.
We are on Bijon Robinson over the nine seventy five
and a half rushing yards, Chris Godwin, we have doubled
down on on the baseline receiving yards eight fifty and
a half and laddering them up to one thousand plus
on the year. We have not yet given out futures

(58:13):
plays on the Saints and or Panthers. We'll do that
a little bit later on in the show. But like
I said, you're on Panthers Island, and I think that
it is not It might not be as crazy as
it sounds. It sounds crazy because this is a team
that won two games last year and obviously is you know,
right there in the conversation to be among the worst.

(58:35):
You know, has the what dan second longest odds to
win the Super Bowl in front of only the Patriots
rrect what it is? Correct, So you know, expectations from
Vegas are not high for this team. But as we've
talked about with each and every reporter within this division,
it's a bad, bad division. And so maybe you're just
looking at the value at twelve thirteen to one. I mean,

(58:57):
explain yourself, my friend.

Speaker 9 (59:00):
It's a little bit of everything, right, So you know,
I'm an island hunter. Last year we did the worst
the first thing, and I was the one guy on
Texans Island heading into the season when it seems absolutely crazy,
and why I felt that they start owing to it
seemed crazy to me too, and I invest a little
bit more and someone we got over the line at
a Jaguars Island the year before. The reason I bring

(59:21):
those up is because you gotta if you're looking for
an island, you gotta start by watching the.

Speaker 5 (59:27):
Archipelago, right.

Speaker 9 (59:28):
You gotta like, look at the surroundings, Well, how's the
water out here?

Speaker 5 (59:31):
What were you looking at?

Speaker 9 (59:32):
And you guys have been talking about the surroundings of
this division the whole time, So I don't need to
make the case for why this is a winnable division
like you've been doing that on the show all evening.
I think the Saints, the offensive line, the coach is
kind of rotten from.

Speaker 5 (59:46):
The inside out there.

Speaker 9 (59:47):
The Bucks are obviously going in the wrong direction. The Falcons,
to me, are last year's Saints. They're the team where
we're like, all right, well, you know somebody's.

Speaker 5 (59:55):
Gonna win the division.

Speaker 9 (59:56):
And they seem average and they have an average quarterback,
and average offense and easy strength of schedule. So sure, Atlanta,
that's what we did. And then the Saints never really
found the rhythm, and so I think this division is
winnable with like maybe nine wins. So Caroline only won
two last year, so I didn't quite get this there yet.

Speaker 2 (01:00:14):
So what do I like?

Speaker 9 (01:00:15):
I like that there are just a lot of paths
development here, So start with Dave Canalis, who I think
was brought in pretty clearly for a very specific reason.

Speaker 5 (01:00:25):
He's the quarterback whisper.

Speaker 9 (01:00:27):
This is the guy that turned Baker Mayfield's career around
last year, helped Gino Smith in Seattle before that. Obviously,
the project now is Bryce Young. Bryce Young was terrible
last year, like terrible, beyond measurement really, and so that's
bad last year. It's good this year because it means
that there is a huge room for growth. Even just

(01:00:49):
getting to like below average not great play is still
a massive step up. And you know, he was a
number one pick, so he could be much better than
that with coaching, the adage, and Brooks in the draft
a good runner. They went out and signed two good guards,
so I think that will help the offensive line a lot,
especially interior where Bryce Young needs a little extra helped

(01:01:10):
to see over that line. So I think that is
going to be important for them. Deontay Johnson is a
great route runner. Again, I don't think the offense is
going to be great. I just think there are more
options this year. They are more pass forward. The defense
lost some names. They do get back Shack Thompson. I
like Aji Evro, the defensive coordinator there. I go through

(01:01:30):
as their prep for the season, and I ranked all
the quarterbacks one to thirty two. I ranked all the
lines one to thirty two, all the coaching staffs one
to thirty two.

Speaker 5 (01:01:38):
Consistently.

Speaker 9 (01:01:39):
With Carolina, I kept noticing they'd usually be like twenty fourth,
twenty seventh, twenty third, somewhere in that range, and they'd
fall into a tier where I was like, you know,
not terrible, certainly not good, but I could see a
path where we kind of move toward league average.

Speaker 5 (01:01:55):
Here.

Speaker 9 (01:01:56):
That's Carolina. To me, that's the whole thing with them.
I can see pass and I can see a lot
of different paths, and quite frankly at Victory laughed the Texans.
I really didn't even get the right path on the Texans.
I wasn't even that high in CGA. Strud I was
in on the coaching, I was in the defense.

Speaker 5 (01:02:11):
I like the line.

Speaker 9 (01:02:12):
Stroud was the biggest reason. That was just one of
the many pounds that Houston ham last year. And I
think in the NFC South, the path is there. So
if the Panthers can improve a lot, and they should
because Bryce Young historically number one picks have not performed
well their first year. In the last decade, they averaged

(01:02:34):
three point three wins their first season I saw. I
think three point one would improved by five and a
half the second season as a sophomore. So we still
only got to seven and a half from two last year.
If that's the case for Bryce Young, But hey, guess
what you give me seven and a half wins in
this division? We're talking, baby, like we're in the mix now.
We might be a win away from Steel in this thing.

(01:02:56):
So at thirteen to one, twelve to one, ten to one,
whatever your book for his best out there, I think
this team was in the mix.

Speaker 5 (01:03:03):
We get over the first division winner almost every year.

Speaker 4 (01:03:06):
So you mentioned that number seven and a half. That
just happens to be the win total for the New
Orleans Saints, Brandon. This team just they bore me to tears,
like this is just a really boring football team. Every
time Taysom Hill is on my TV screen, I want
to throw my remote. I can't really find a good
future for this team that I really like right now.
I mean, maybe I should start looking at some unders,

(01:03:26):
cause I don't think they really got better over the offseason.

Speaker 1 (01:03:29):
But what about you?

Speaker 4 (01:03:31):
Have you found anything on the Saints that you like?

Speaker 9 (01:03:34):
So I prepped this huge manifesto article. I got all
my bets lined up, and I got down to the
end and I had four teams. I had absolutely nothing for,
no future at all, and of course the Saints were
one of them. But I dig, I dig, and I
dug and I pound myself a future.

Speaker 5 (01:03:50):
So let me give you two angles here.

Speaker 9 (01:03:51):
Number one, of course, I like the under Dennis Allen.
Come on, give me a chance to say, NFL, I'm
gonna keep.

Speaker 5 (01:03:57):
On taking it.

Speaker 9 (01:03:57):
I thought we were done last year, that he was
fired for sure, and somehow he got through. But Saints
are five and oh to the under with Dennis Allen.
So my only hesitation there is the schedule starts out
pretty tough. They got Cowboys Eagles Chiefs in the first
five weeks. What if we're not fading Dennis Allen after
the five weeks, what.

Speaker 5 (01:04:16):
Are fading somebody else?

Speaker 3 (01:04:18):
I don't know.

Speaker 5 (01:04:18):
If I love that, he.

Speaker 9 (01:04:20):
Might not stick around for the finish line. Here's my
prop that I got for you. Darek Carr under twenty
two and a half passing touchdowns. So the Car's never
really been a big touchdowns guy that touchdown right, does Dennis.

Speaker 5 (01:04:32):
Stay fairly static?

Speaker 9 (01:04:34):
He's averaged twenty three touchdowns per season the last seven years,
so that's where the number comes from here. However, don't
forget we got Taysom Hill. He's gonna steal some touchdowns,
He's gonna run some in he might throw occasionally whatever.

Speaker 5 (01:04:48):
Position he is.

Speaker 9 (01:04:49):
And don't forget about Spencer Ratler. He can look pretty
good in the preseason. And at some point if the
Saints really are losing games, why wouldn't they find out
if Tyler is anything there, if they actually have some
sort of plan to move forward or frankly will carry
even make it through the season hole behind the offensive line.
So I think there's a lot of outs to go

(01:05:10):
under that number. So I think Derek Carr fading him
with the touchdowns is a good way to go about
this team. If you have to do something, that's the
best I found in.

Speaker 1 (01:05:20):
The interesting time. Just because you are a unicorn in
this space. When it comes to the futures, I don't
know anyone that bets more NFL futures or at least
talks more NFL futures than you do. I don't want
to just put you in the NFC South box. What's
one or two the absolutely love across the league that
are included in this article you'll be posting.

Speaker 9 (01:05:41):
My absolute favorite award of the season is I'm sorry
to Patriots fans, but it's Aaron Rodgers MVP twenty five
to one. Look, I like making money more than I
like reading for my team. This is the most obvious
narrative in the world. The forty year old comes back
from a torn achilles leads the Jets back to the

(01:06:01):
playoffs for the first time since twenty ten. I mean,
come on, if he looks good again, everything's gonna line up.
Their offensive line goes from bottom seven to top seven.
Their quarterback room goes from last in the league the
top five. If Rogers is healthy again, He's never had
below number eleven DVA offense as a healthy starter, He's
won double digit games ten times. It's a team Award MVP,

(01:06:24):
and the Jets team has been great. They just needed
an offense and Rogers in the offensive line provide that.

Speaker 5 (01:06:31):
So I think that is badly.

Speaker 9 (01:06:33):
M's probably the same price as to a tegav Low
and Jared Goff.

Speaker 2 (01:06:36):
What are we doing?

Speaker 9 (01:06:37):
Aaron Rodgers four time MVP, and we love repeat winners.
So that is my favorite. Panthers Island is my favorite.
And then just two teams going in opposite directions, and
I'm investing in all sorts of ways. I'm in on
the Seahawks. I'm out on the Rams. I am fading
the Rams. I'll take the under. I will take them
last in the division plus seven hundred. I think the

(01:07:00):
Cardinals are improving there and that's a heads up with them.
And then in the Seahawks, I love the coaching staff,
Mike McDonald, Ryan Grubb. I think it's the perfect fit
for this team.

Speaker 5 (01:07:10):
I love the over for Seattle.

Speaker 9 (01:07:11):
I have them at ten half wins right in the
mix for the NFC one seed. That's three wins over
the win total. So I'm playing all sorts of ways.
I'm playing the one seed. I will be playing Mike
McDonald fourteen to one for Coach of the Year. I
think there is a very high upside outcome for Seattle
with the coaching effect. I love how McDonald fits the defense,
and I love Ryan Grubb is about dialing up the

(01:07:34):
deep ball and that plays perfectly to Gino Smith's strengths.
So those are some of my absolute favorite positions going
to the season.

Speaker 4 (01:07:40):
How about the Patriots, BA it could be a very
long fall here in New England, but there's got to
be a profitable way to watch the seas.

Speaker 1 (01:07:46):
It's been pretty quick fall.

Speaker 5 (01:07:47):
Actually, yeah, it's been a little bit of both.

Speaker 9 (01:07:52):
I always heard of good things about the fall in Boston,
so maybe I was hearing the wrong thing there.

Speaker 1 (01:07:57):
But that's the fall of the football team.

Speaker 9 (01:08:01):
I'm afraid I don't have great news for the Patriots
this year. They are my worst team in the league,
and I don't know that we've ever seen a team
face this level of brain drain, going from Bill Belichick
to well, not Bill Belichick. I don't know what we're
gonna get from May. I don't know we're getting from
the crew, but I've seen a lot of a lot
of folks out there saying, well, okay, we know the

(01:08:23):
offense will be terrible. We all agree with that, there's
no blocking, it's going to be bad. But top ten
defense though, I don't know, man, I'm not so sure,
like the whole thing with this defense, with all the
weapons that Bill Belichick figured out how to use in
these creative ways. So I don't know if I'm not
confident that's gonna line up either. So here's my bet
for you. I'm sorry for this one. I'm taking the

(01:08:45):
Patriots to go winless in the Division.

Speaker 5 (01:08:48):
You heard me.

Speaker 9 (01:08:48):
I like the Jets, so I'm in on them. We
already know the Dolphins and Bills are good. The Patriots
are going to be huge underdogs in all six of
those division games, barring like some injury to Josh Allen
or something. It's lust four hundred owen six. I think
that we're gonna, you know, probably have chances to pivot
out of that later, get like a long money line
if we need to head or something like that. Maybe

(01:09:10):
Drake May comes in and everything's looking great and we
get a chance to play that angle later. But I
just see this going very poorly in the division. I
think they're a candidate for worst record and last winless
team and all the bad things.

Speaker 5 (01:09:24):
But they're also the shortest thods for all that.

Speaker 9 (01:09:26):
So I think oh and six and Division plus four
hundred is the best way to play something profitable on
this team.

Speaker 1 (01:09:33):
Brandon Anderson Action Network on Twitter at Wheaton Brando. He
is the futures whisperer in the NFL. I mean, just
for anyone that doesn't remember you cash the comeback player
of the year Joe Flacco off the couch last year.
What was that like, two fifty to one or some
ridiculous number.

Speaker 9 (01:09:51):
Two fifty to one, sitting on the couch just like
us watching the games.

Speaker 1 (01:09:56):
Oh, absolutely amazing. That'll that'll pay for your year in
sports bet depending on what you have.

Speaker 5 (01:10:01):
On that one.

Speaker 1 (01:10:01):
Again, be a so much fun having you on man.
We'll talk to you again as the season gets going.
Enjoy that article. We look forward to reading it.

Speaker 5 (01:10:09):
Appreciate you. Talk to you soon.