Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Now w RKO presents Boston's only nightly sports betting show,
The Gambler with Adam Kaufman, covering spreads, props, parlays and more.
The Gambler starts, now here's Adam Kaufman.
Speaker 2 (00:19):
Well, well, well, well, well, I guess we're halfway home
in terms of the show week, just a two show week.
We had one last night Monday, today Tuesday, and then
off with Alia. Have yourselves a wonderful, happy football family friend,
(00:39):
food filled Thanksgiving. Adam Kaufman, Dan Watkins, Brian Butt is
on vacation. And you know, even though we're not going
to be on the air with you the next few days,
it's not like we're going to be out of your lives.
Speaker 3 (00:55):
Not.
Speaker 2 (00:55):
If you follow us on the action app The Gambler
with Ak, you can be damn sure you bet pun intended,
we will be posting plays. But Dan here just hit
me with the most dangerous question I could be asked
leading into a show. So how many parlays we build
(01:18):
in tonight?
Speaker 4 (01:20):
We got to make up for an entire week.
Speaker 2 (01:21):
Here, here's the deal, here's what we got going on.
We're gonna do our college football review preview as we
typically do on Tuesdays. Paul Stone, who has a professional
better college Football Expert, handicapper, pay for picks service, all
of it. Paul's great, He's gonna join us talk about
(01:42):
the college football playoffs that is taking shape, new rankings out.
Can't wait to dive into that. Absolutely, we are going
to obviously look back just a little bit of what
we saw, mostly look ahead to a busy weekend and
really the week that is already underway. It's impacting our
bank roll repair that Dan has. Although Dan, we did
(02:04):
just get some good news Wedad a Toledo touchdown late
in regulation. More on that in a moment. After that
and after bank roll repairs, we have to think about
how we want to do those. I mean, shoot, those
those could be for Sunday if you really wanted them
to be. But uh, if stuff's even out yet. That's
a great point. Well, money lines, that kind of true,
(02:25):
of course, if you dare, If you dare, you can
bet props. Bet props, not the money lines we talk here,
lots of props. Cody Mitchell is going to join us
Bet the Juice Podcast to a little Maui Invitational talk, which,
of course we are sweating our People's Parlay with a
couple of plays in that one again full update in
(02:47):
the moment, and after that, Matt Lamarca will hop on
with us from Fantasy Life to really, you know, we're
I know it's a Tuesday, and Dan and I talked
about this. Do we want to do the regular what
would be Thursday preview of the NFL weekend or do
we want to really hone in on the games that
are right around the corner, Three on Thursday, one on Friday,
(03:09):
Black Friday, and then obviously the rest on Sunday. And
I think ultimately that's gonna be the move. Lamark will
hop on for a couple of segments. Main focus there
will be Thursday and Friday NFL football, while again we're
all hanging out at home with our families. Hopefully, I
hope that's what people have their you know, plans set
up for. But yeah, we could, if we want to
(03:31):
be so bold, do up to three People's parlays. We
have to and intend to do one with Cody for
tomorrow because you know, we got to have something for
tomorrow and college basketball, nice big slate in front of us,
But yeah, I mean, we could do a college one
with Paul. We could do an NFL one with Matt.
(03:53):
It's all on the table here, Dan, what do you think?
Speaker 4 (03:55):
I mean, that's what I thought the plan was tonight.
But then as I went to double check the show
rundown that you sent over, I noticed you didn't put
it there in the description. So that's why I asked, hmm.
I mean I assuming that we were going to do
it at least a college You're prepared, is what you're saying.
I am prepared, ready for at least college football, college basketball.
(04:16):
I am prepared. I'm sure I can talk myself into
an NFL play and do some more research here and
just kind of go through that process as we talked
to Lamarca later on here. But that's up to you
if you want to do three all.
Speaker 2 (04:28):
Right, No, I mean, look, it's I don't exactly need
to be talked into putting together show parlays. That's near
and dear to my heart. At all times. Speaking of
near and dear to my heart, let's tell the people
where we are on official plays that we are actively
sweating right now. So by the skin of our teeth,
(04:49):
we got in with my play earlier today. Gardner Web
minus two and a half. Wow, that was a sweat
That was a close game, even Gardner web trailing much
of that contest. And then as Dan sent up the
make your free throws bat signal, they just barely got
the job done with a four point win. So we
(05:11):
cleared that we stay alive for the evening. The two
plays that we need right now and they are sweaty,
Dan is Houston minus three and a half. I'm looking
at it. I believe down by four right now, down three,
down three with about six minutes six and change, six
and change. Yeah, left in regulation obviously, so let's hope
(05:32):
for the best there. It's go on a run here, Houston.
And then Duke we need on the money line. That
was justin Perry Shock Qualities. Pick Duke on the money
line against Kansas right now. Kansas up by two. This
game is at halftime.
Speaker 4 (05:48):
Yeah, Duke was down big. They were down like ten,
eleven to twelve points or something right that in this one.
So they did make a little run there to end
the first half, and hopefully they can keep closing that
gap and just get over the hunt there and just win.
Don't need you to cover tonight, just get the win.
Speaker 2 (06:01):
Duke your bank roll repair. By the way, also live
plus one two. Samford was down much of this game,
came back, got the job done. One on the money
line for sumtime all we needed. Yeah, thank goodness SMU.
That is midway through the opening half. But we need
them on the money line. The other one that again
just got that huge touchdown out of Toledo. We need
(06:24):
Toledo football on the money line. Not like this was
an overwhelming favorite. Although the money, the handle, the bets,
all of it. That was overwhelming on Toledo, but only
a seven point favor going into this game. Just took
them on the money line as part of this br
and it's a fourteen all game with Akron with about
three minutes left.
Speaker 4 (06:42):
Yeah, about to get the ball back too. Akron is
about to punt from deep inside their own territory, Toledo. Yeah,
they've been trailing fourteen to nothing in this game. They've
come to life here in the fourth quarter. Hopefully they
can finish the job. Personally, I laid the seven and
a half here. I don't think I'm gonna get that,
but it would be very nice to at least negate
it per something with that bankroll repair and help out
the show.
Speaker 2 (07:02):
Yeah, that would be wonderful. Hopefully we get that done
and our group pick. So we started this last night.
Wait for anyone new or didn't tune in last night.
We decided as something of hopefully. I used the term
reward loosely, I guess, because it needs to hit not
costume money, but as a reward to the live listener,
(07:24):
not just those that join us on the podcast, taking
us with you to work or walking the dog or
lunch break or whatever you're doing. Wanted to give out
a play that we could actively sweat on the air
that has to obviously start while we're on the air,
you know, after ten fifteen, ten thirty, whatever it may be.
So Dan threw out some options, much as I did yesterday.
(07:44):
I threw out North Carolina yesterday and just you know,
sort of dinked around for a while, got down, Big
rallied late, did come back. One didn't cover, so we
lost the bet. So we're Er and one. You know,
obviously people care more about ROI and units and all that.
That's fine, we keep track of all that. But just
(08:05):
in terms of the record, Ohero and One. We dropped
that one on UNC but I was the one who
presented it. Dan was good with it. We did it
this time around. Dan presented one couple options, actually both
of which I am good with. I think I prefer
one over the other. Yeah, so there's two really two
main options. I think tonight we can run back unc
as they're getting points tonight plus three and a half. Now,
(08:28):
Hubert Davis, the coach there, has been horrible in these
back to back spots, So that does give me pause
there with taking the heels. But if you do think
that they bounce back and that they caught fire in
the second half and found something, there might be a
way to look against that Auburn team. Meanwhile, my other play,
which I am leaning much more towards, and I think
I like this one, is Rutgers on the money line
(08:50):
against Notre Dame. So my logic here behind this is
that I think Rutgers is just the better team. They're
more talented, they have those two stud freshmen in Davis
and Harp. They're facing their first like adversity really as
a team here after they just lost to Kennesau State
over the weekend, so they got that bitter taste in
their mouth and Notre Dame's defense isn't great, and I
(09:11):
think that's going to play right into the hands there
of the Scarlet Knights. So instead of laying the one
and a half or two and a half, I think
we just go money line here. It's on FanDuel at
minus one fourteen, basically the same juice as playing the
standard minus one ten, and we don't have to lay
any points. We just got to get the win. Has Actually,
I don't know if this impacts you at all, because
I'm looking at it right now and I agree with you.
(09:31):
I'm more comfortable with Rutgers than UNC as well. Fanduels
ballooned up to minus one twenty eight, oh wow, with
a spread at minus one and a half.
Speaker 4 (09:40):
And changed them like since we've gone on air, because
I just bet this at like nine point fifty nine. Yeah,
I'm looking to see anywhere else better. Minus one twenty
looks to be the best MGM ESPN DraftKings. So it's
either do you want the minus one and a half
Rutgers to win by two plus or obviously the minus
(10:01):
one twenty So it's minus one ten versus minus one twenty.
Speaker 2 (10:03):
You suggested the pick. I'll let you make the.
Speaker 4 (10:05):
Call, Yeah, I'm gonna go money line here, just because
I do trust my rhythm model here. That's been pretty
pretty hot today. I think I'm like seven to two
or something like that. Money line is the best bet.
Minus one and a half is not so ok, So
let's just go money line. We'll pay a little extra
there in case we get a one point win.
Speaker 2 (10:23):
All right, it's locked in, it's in, loaded it up,
it's on the app. Your gambler with ak.
Speaker 4 (10:29):
When this actually starts, who knows? Because they are on
the same court as Houston in Alabama, and Houston just
took a four point lead.
Speaker 2 (10:37):
So let's keep going. Cougar seep going cougars. Who doesn't
love a good cougar at night? Get it done, especially
in Vegas, especially in Vegas that is, that's where it's at.
Get it done, Houston, we need you could use the
rockets too. That game's going overtime. While we're talking about
Houston teams against Minnesota, did you, by the way, you
(10:58):
know people should check your account. Fandel, so FanDuel seems
to be the only book, well Caesar's two, but mostly
Fandel that gives me boosts anymore. I've gotten limited MGM
they're not giving me anything anymore. I have my rewards points.
I guess I could catch those in for something. Fanatics
is like pretending I don't exist. But FanDuel threw me
(11:19):
three no sweat bets, one for basketball for the TNT
games as it does on these Tuesday Cup game days,
and two surprisingly enough for football for Thursday, specifically Thursday. Yeah. One,
But what was weird was one was considerable. I don't
need to get into specifics, but one was considerably higher
(11:41):
than the other one. One was like ten bucks, and
then the other one was much more than that. I
don't know. I'm not complaining. I don't know why the
multi no sweat bets, But did you get those? Or
one of those? Or one for basketball tonight?
Speaker 4 (11:54):
So I have both of them? Are no sweat same
game parlays. I got one for basketball tonight on TNT
and then one for Thanksgiving? Okay minimum plus four hundred?
Speaker 2 (12:03):
Yeah, how's the basketball one looking for you?
Speaker 4 (12:07):
I honestly, we were so busy at our sister station
tonight that I forgot to place it. So a lot
of breaking news going on on the North Shore tonight,
so I had to handle that instead of placing bets. Unfortunately,
sad is that is that second game underway yet?
Speaker 3 (12:19):
Yeah?
Speaker 4 (12:20):
Well you just it just got underway. Yeah, so it
had to build an in game live parlay, which I
don't ever really like doing because I just don't trust
myself with that.
Speaker 2 (12:26):
Well, but it's a no sweat bet. I mean, does
it apply still to an in game I guess I've
never done a no sweat with an in game. I imagine
it does.
Speaker 4 (12:34):
I have no idea you should.
Speaker 2 (12:35):
I mean you you have literally nothing to lose. It
doesn't hit. You get your money back.
Speaker 4 (12:39):
Yeah, I think it is. Actually, yeah, I think so
you should.
Speaker 2 (12:42):
So to take a look at that durerent break full
around with it during a commercial breakap So, mine unfortunately
just died because and I it whatever, no sweat bet,
it dies, you get your money back. That's That's not
the issue. What floors me is how it died. I
needed that the leg that died that prevented me from
getting to the nightcap here because I spread it out
(13:03):
over both games. Was I needed six rebounds out of
bam Adebayo, which he has done, I mean not in
every game, but probably all but one. Coming into tonight,
le Pulp is his game log prior to tonight. I am
going in reverse order eleven thirteen, eight, eleven, twelve, seven, nine, twelve,
(13:26):
eight fourteen for the month of November. Wasn't until he
had a three to close out October. Fittingly enough, he
finished at five rebounds. I needed six. But it's again,
it's it's not the trend that surprises me, and no
yannis on that's what gets me. No yanis.
Speaker 4 (13:46):
So he was in foul trouble. He had five fouls.
Speaker 2 (13:48):
Well, he got the fifth one late, so he wasn't
foul trouble. He had four throughout a lot of the game.
The fifth one came in I don't know, waning minutes whatever.
It was like he was already barely playing. He played
thirty one minutes when all said and done, but I
could not I thought that leg was gold. When Janniscott
ruled out, I was shocked. He couldn't get to six
(14:08):
rebounds with no Janni's on the floor.
Speaker 4 (14:09):
Yeah, that is very very odd.
Speaker 2 (14:13):
Very odd. Maybe I don't know, maybe if the foul
trouble didn't and obviously didn't just limit his minutes, but
maybe he just played super conservative. But good god, anyway
that would have been a nice payday. If you know,
even if the Nightcap were to hit, which I'm sure
it will, I know it will, it'll lose by one leg.
It absolutely will lose by one leg. Let's talk about
(14:35):
college football. That's what the people want to hear. They
want to talk football, football, football, which we're mostly going
to do tonight, other than some college basketball later, we
will continue to keep track of obviously Toledo football that
where do we stand overtime.
Speaker 4 (14:48):
Yet still at the end of the fourth quarter here.
Speaker 2 (14:50):
Okay, And obviously Houston as well as Duke. A couple
of close games that we really hope go in our
favor and we can cash roughly plus four to fifty
people's parlay if all goes well. We're gonna step aside.
Paul Stone will join us when we come back, talk
some college.
Speaker 1 (15:05):
Football, live lines, locks and long shots. Now back to
Boston's only nightly betting show, The Gambler with Adam Kaufman
on six point eighty WRKO, streaming live on the iHeartRadio
app or tell your smart speaker to play WRKO on iHeartRadio.
Speaker 2 (15:29):
We are back here on The Gambler with Adam Kaufman.
WRKO we come your way normally Monday through Thursday nights
from at ten pm until midnight Eastern time. Of course,
this is a holiday week, so last night tonight and
that's it. Everyone goes on vacation. But we will give
you plenty of plays because well listen, we like to gamble,
So plenty of plays coming your way, not only tonight,
(15:51):
but over the course of the break. I can promise
you that we're gonna mix in quite a bit of
college football talk here in this opening hour with our friend.
Paul Stone is on Twitter at paul Stone Sports college
football Expert, has a website Paulstone sports dot org. Paul,
how are you.
Speaker 3 (16:09):
Oh man? Just glad to be on with you, Adam
Tellson college football and what a week is going to
be starting Thursday, and really looking forward to it.
Speaker 2 (16:17):
Absolutely thrilled to have you here, obviously, and Paul, I
know you know this, but for anyone that doesn't, the
new college football Playoff rankings are out and you know
it's interesting. So as we know, expanded format, top twelve
teams will make the playoff. Your top twelve right now,
which is going to change Oregon, Ohio State, Texas, Penn State,
(16:38):
Notre Dame, Miami, Georgia, Texas. Who else do we have
who's coming to number nine here? Dan Tennessee, Tennessee or Yeah, Tennessee, SMU, Indiana,
Boise State, right, and then Arizona. Yeah, So what do
you make of this grouping here as it exists right now?
Speaker 3 (16:59):
Paul, Well, I mean, you've got obviously, Indiana plays Ohio
State this past weekend and the only game two hundred
and only average two point six yards per play one
hundred and fifty three yards on the game really got outplayed,
they only dropped to number ten. So you've gotten now
(17:21):
three teams from the Big Ten in the top four
and four Big Ten teams in the top ten. So
the current twelve team format would have four teams from
the Big ten only three from the SEC, which is
quite problematic from my viewpoint in I mean, this isn't
the NFL. The team's played disparate schedules. This is why
(17:43):
we have a committee to hopefully make hard, subjective decisions
about the spotting of teams, certainly with high regard to
each team's quality of play, but also quality of opponent.
And from my perspective, the SEC has being penalized for
their overall depth of the teams one through sixteen. You
look at Kentucky, they're in fifteenth place, and the sixteen
(18:05):
team FBC at one in seven, beat Ole Miss by
three on the road, lost of Georgia at home by
a single point in play Tennessee within ten points on
the road in Knoxville. I have Kentucky at next to
last in the SEC power rated higher than nine of
the eighteen teams in the Big ten, exactly half of
(18:28):
the teams. My ratings are pretty reflective of the industry,
So I think the SEC is kind of getting short
changed here a little bit as we get closer to
me into the road.
Speaker 4 (18:39):
So, Paul, before we get into week fourteen, rivalry week
and looking at the games this week, just with a
week left to go, who do you think comes out
of the Big twelve this conference? It's just been so
much fun all season and there's like a I think
there's like eleven or twelve tiebreaker scenarios going into this
week that can all like unfold and play out. Here.
(18:59):
We don't know, yeah, who's going to be playing in
Dallas next week? But who do you like here? Arizona
State's the favorite at plus one forty five on DraftKings,
Iowa State right behind them a little lower, and you
get to BYU Colorado before a big drop off, and
you get to like Baylor, Kansas State and those teams.
Speaker 3 (19:15):
I mean, it's just a crazy league. We said in
the non conference myself and others it was the most
balanced league in college football. And here we are, with
a week to play in the Big Twelve. We have
four teams tied for first at six and two, those
being Arizona State, BYU Iowa stayed in Colorado, and then
(19:36):
five more teams just one game back at five and three.
So you've got nine teams within a game of the lead.
I or at a league official today say that there
are two hundred and fifty six possible scenarios for the
championship game in this league, based on all the tie
breakers and the various rules that apply. So it's just crazy.
But I think it's clear that if Arizona State and
(19:59):
i WAS State win their games this Saturday, they would
be the two teams, and I think I'd have to
lan another child. But Arizona State and second year head
coach Kenny Dillingham one of the greatest stories in all
of college football this season maybe been a little bit
under the right ar because of Indiana, the Army and
some others, but man, they're playing well, they're gaining confidence.
(20:21):
I'd probably have to go with the sun Devils here.
Speaker 2 (20:24):
I've heard a lot of people say, Paul, you know,
with the prior format, the four teams, you know what
wasn't big enough. You know, there were too many teams
that were deserving that should have been in. Could have
easily made a case last year for the likes of
Georgia Florida State, and now people are saying this year,
you know, the field's too big, not because it's not
good for betters and for content, and you know, it's
(20:46):
the the engagement is wonderful, that the it's all so
many competitive games at this stage of the year that
mean something that's all well and good, but that you know,
the product is a little bit watered down because you're
going to have some lesser than teams make that final twelve.
Do you agree with that or is you know as
college football handled this appropriately.
Speaker 3 (21:08):
Well, I don't know if I agree with it or not, Adam,
but I'll certainly say this that there is I know
we over use this word sometimes in sports, but there
is great parody in college football this season, and we
can't always say that. From year to year. There's usually
whether it be a four team playoff or if we
have a you know, a twelfth team playoff like we
do this year, or if we have a you know,
a thirty sixteen playoff down the road, you're always gonna
(21:31):
have one or two teams. You said that team, but
that team's gonna win it, and this year we really
don't know. I mean there's a number of teams. I
think it makes for a more exciting, more engaging tournament
because we really don't know who's gonna win the tournament.
I mean there could be, you know, a team at
the top, or maybe even a team at the bottom
of the field seated lower. So to me, it makes
(21:54):
it more interesting because we're not going to potentially have
any que I'm sure we'll have a blowout or two,
but going into those games, we won't be able to
totally say that, you know, this team's gonna win by
three or four touchdowns. So I think it makes it
really interesting from just a general spectator standpoint and certainly
from a betting standpoint.
Speaker 4 (22:15):
So Paul, as we head into Week fourteen, Do you
have any just you know, kind of like overarching strategies
here as to how you attack this week. Are you
looking for teams that still are you know, are trying
to make that conference championship game or the playoff? Are
you looking for, you know, maybe on the other hand,
looking for teams that are trying to play spoiler any
general themes going into this week.
Speaker 3 (22:37):
You know, I try to fade teams that I think
have maybe fail to meet their preseason goal, you know,
a team like Liberty, for instance. I think for Liberty
this year was kind of a case of college football
playoff or bust, and they're clearly not going to make
the College Playoff football playoff. They needed to go thirteen
to know and then hope that the committee put them
(22:59):
in as group of five, and that's not gonna happen.
So I don't know if Liberty is going to be,
you know, fully all hands on deck when they go
to Huntsville, Texas this Friday afternoon. So I like Liberty
plus three in that game or a rother Sam Houston
excuse me, Sam Houston plus three over Liberty in that
Conference USA game based on Liberty's sailing to meet their expectations,
(23:23):
and then you know some of the others, I just
basically apply the same strategies. I'll probably look a little
more heavily towards home underdogs this time of year. So
just pretty much the same strategies, though I don't DV
eight from my overall theme a great deal.
Speaker 2 (23:39):
So here's what we're gonna do, Paul. We're gonna step aside,
We're go and come back, continue to talk about some
of these games that we have in front of us,
but also we are going to build out a people's
parlay with you. You have not done this with us before.
The way this works pretty self explanatory. I'll give you
a favorite play so well, Dan, but we will get
your favorite play and we will parlay all those together
and hope for a nice big payout sometime between now
(24:01):
and Saturday. Obviously, so you may already have a favorite
play in mind for the weekend, but if you don't,
get you thinking for the next couple of minutes during
the break, and we'll come on back talk more college
football with Paul Stone.
Speaker 1 (24:12):
Need to vent about bad bets. You've come to the
right place. Tell us about it. Call six one seven
two six six six eight six eight. That's six one
seven two six six six eight six eight. Or if
you're listening on the iHeartRadio app, use the top back button.
Now back to the Gambler with Adam Kauffman on w RKO, we.
Speaker 2 (24:36):
Are back with Paul Stone, Duke within six Houston in overtime.
By the way, just to let you know basketball both
obviously as we sweat out the people's parlay hoping for
the best or talking to college football and other people's
parlay build on the way with mister Stone. But I
got to ask you about a game that's a pretty
damn close to a pick him here. In fact, we've
(24:58):
seen the line move from one favorite to the other.
At one point in time, I locked in Kansas when
it was plus one. Now I'm seeing Kansas minus one
and a half in this game against Baylor. Paul, you
know it's it's an important game obviously for both sides.
Kansas has you know, was terrible, got off to a
one six start, now five and six looking for ball eligibility.
(25:21):
Has beaten top twenty five teams three in a row
BYU Iowa State Colorado. Baylor has covered in five straight games.
Last four is favorite sitting at seven and four. Where
do you go in this one?
Speaker 3 (25:34):
Okay, this is a really intriguing game, obviously, in a
very difficult handicap. You have two of the hotter teams
in the Big twelve for sure, But I kind of
like the you know, the home standing Baylor Bearers. They
won five games in a row. They really got in
solid play out of Sawyer Robertson. You've got the Kansas
coming off that very emotional victory over over Colorado and
(25:58):
coach Prime. So I like Baylor here, but just just
by a here. It's a very difficult handicap. They're both
playing very well at this point.
Speaker 4 (26:07):
So Paul, Miami, they need to win to get into
the ACC title game. Next week they head up to
Syracuse to play the Orange at the Dome. The Knes
are laying eleven on the road here. Now, we've seen
a few times with this Miami team that they struggle
early and then all of a sudden they go from
being in a close game at halftime to covering a
gigantic spread late in the fourth quarter. They did it
(26:28):
against wake Forest last week. They did it against Duke
earlier this year. What do you make of this matchup
between Miami and Syracuse.
Speaker 3 (26:36):
Yeah, I tell you this is a Miami team that,
as you indicated, what they can score in bunches, and
they've done that in a lot of games in the
second half. I don't have a strong opinion on the
full game handicap, but just based on their you know,
kind of what their DNA has been this year, so
to speak, I might go with Syracuse in the uh
(26:56):
you know, in the first half line those numbers are
not out yet, but anticipate, you know that we'll be
getting something less than six points with Syracuse in the
first half. But the way that the Hurricanes have played
all season, you know, no reason to really think they're
going to perform any differently or come out of the
gating differently against the Horns. So not look at Syracuse
(27:17):
in the first half plus the points.
Speaker 2 (27:18):
Here we have a matchup of a couple of top twenty,
you know, almost both top fifteen teams, South Carolina and Clemson,
and Clemson two and a half point favorite, although most
of the handle, most of the money coming in on
or most of the bets I should say, coming in
on South Carolina for this one. Although it seems like
(27:38):
where the public and maybe the sharps agree is looking
at the over forty nine in this game. What do
you think in this one?
Speaker 3 (27:47):
I'll tell you here. I like South Carolina. You look
at this Clemson team. First of all, they've mostly mopped
before this year against infater competition. They've played two teams
ranked in the top thirty of JA Sagan's ratings, those
being Georgia and Louisville. Lost both of those games by
a total of forty three points. This game Cock team,
(28:08):
I don't think anybody, even though they've got three losses
and they're pretty much out of playoff consideration, nobody would
be lining up to play South Carolina in the playoffs.
Two of their three losses by three points or fewer,
lost at home LSU on the road, lost at home
LSU by two, and lost on the road to Alabama
(28:30):
by only three. They entered this game. Does South Carolina
on a five game winning streak. I really like their
recent play. Quarterback redshirt freshman Leonora's sellers again, they're really rolling.
I think South Carolina is going to go into Clemson
beat the Tigers there this weekend in that non conference rivalry.
Speaker 4 (28:50):
So We've seen Vanderbilt cover double digit spreads at home
multiple times this year. They beat Alabama outright, they kept
it within a field goal against Texas. Now, they just
covered a ten point spread against LSU on the road
last week. Now Paul their home against Tennessee getting ten
and a half or eleven points, depending on where you're looking.
Can they do it again?
Speaker 3 (29:13):
You know my instinct here, and I'm kind of predisposed
to bet the home underdog this time of year, as
I indicated earlier, and Vanderbilt has really been good in
that underdog role. But this is probably going to be
a pass for me. I just kind of think that
Vanderbilt they hit their pinnacle. Even though they continued to
play well after Alabama and got some wins, offense has
(29:34):
just been a little bit too unproductive to put it
in those terms. And I'm you know, I'll probably be
on the sideline here, but it's Vanderbilt or nothing. I mean,
there's just no way that you can, I think fade
the Commodores at home in this situation, you know, when
you're looking at Diego Pavia, even though I'm not, you know,
(29:56):
again over the top high and the Commodoors in this game.
It'd be difficult for fave them. Paul.
Speaker 2 (30:01):
The Notre Dame offense has been out of control of late,
I mean out of its mind. And seven and a
half point favorites on the road at USC this week,
I'm wondering, are you comfortable with the spread and taking
the fighting irish or do you just look at the
over fifty one and a half given that clearly they
are going to be points in this game.
Speaker 3 (30:21):
Yeah, you know, I kind of look at USC here
and I know most people are going to be thinking, wait,
Notre Dames played, I mean they lost in Week two
Northern Nill and no way, almost inexplicably. They've won nine
straight regular nine straight games. They've covered six of their
last seven games or only nine touver was that back
door job pulled off by Virginia a couple of weeks ago.
(30:45):
But you look at USC their last fourteen games, they
are nine and five against the spread, and they've also
covered their last four games. When cast is the Betty underdog,
you know, and again it's going to be a case
of just trying to muster up enough baking courage to
get to the window in back the Trojans and I
(31:06):
might get there. You know, this is a pressed by
all the pressure I think, even though Notre Dame's gonna
would possibly be in I guess, but I think the
pressure is more irish than the Trojans might look the
back UFC here.
Speaker 4 (31:19):
So the Iron Bowls in Tuscaloosa this year, guys, now
Paul Alabama's playoff hopes all but dead after losing to
Oklahoma last week. Auburn, They're coming off that huge upset,
thrilling win against Texas A and M. Alabama's laying eleven
and a half yere at home. What do we do
with this one? I mean, I'm not sure is this
Alabama team still gonna be fully engaged after basically seeing
(31:41):
their season go up in flames last week?
Speaker 3 (31:44):
Yeah, it's tough to gauge who's going to have more
left than the emotional tank, you know, Auburn after that
four overtime victory over Texas A and M. Or Alabama
after seeing their playoff hopes virtually extinguished last week, had
a home So it's tough to gauge. I think in
these types of games, you tend to look at the underdog.
(32:06):
You know, I don't know that Alabama's going to have
their total team psyche, collective team psyche, as I like
to say, so, I think Auburn is more likely to
have more hands on deck, so I would tend to
take a look here first at the underdog Auburn and
are Tigers over Alabama.
Speaker 2 (32:23):
I'm mixing one more quickly before we get to the
people's parlay b YU and Houston. The've you know you
got BYU is a nearly two touchdown favorite. Does the
spread feel appropriate in this one?
Speaker 1 (32:36):
No?
Speaker 3 (32:36):
I kind of like Houston. They lost, you know, at
Baylor last week and at Arizona the week before that,
but it did be Kansas State at home as a
similar double digit underdog back on November sac and upset.
Kansas State twenty four to nineteen. Is a twelve and
a half point home underdog. They are going to BYU
(32:57):
this week, but BYU they're going to need a miracle.
Maybe not a miracle, but they're gonna need some help
to get in the Big twelve championship game. You know,
just two weeks ago they were really looking, really looking strong,
and back to back losses to Kansas and Arizona State,
you just have to wonder, you know, where their mindset
is going to be, is they host a Houston team
(33:18):
that is you know, I think, you know, arguably the
worst team in the conference, but they still you know,
have some fight in them. They still are playing hard,
and I would tend to lean towards Houston.
Speaker 2 (33:28):
Here w b YU, Dan, Paul wasn't kidney. He likes
the dogs.
Speaker 4 (33:32):
Yeah, for sure, take those points.
Speaker 2 (33:35):
Absolutely, No, I totally get it. I'm hoping that he's
not on the dog for the play that I have
zeroed in on. But we'll get there in a second.
The people's parlay, of course, as mentioned, we'll get a
favorite play from Paul. From Dan, I'll give you one
and well something to look forward to between now and Saturday.
And there are no restrictions if it's a Friday play,
whatever it may be, it's a big Friday slate. Paul,
(33:56):
you are the guest. Start us off. What is your
absolute favorite play?
Speaker 3 (34:01):
Well, it happens to be a big game. And that's
not always the case of b I look down the
board a lot of times and you know, look at
the sunbell to the Conference USA or whatever else. But
I'm going to go to perhaps the biggest game of
the weekend Saturday Night at Kyle Field in College Station
for the first time in thirteen years. Obviously, Texas A
and M hosting Texas with very great and significant playoff implications.
(34:26):
I'll say, first of all, it looks like the Texas,
even if it loses, will be in the college football playoff.
Isn't that large? Texas A, A and M, on the
other hand, their playoffs have already started. This is the
playoff game Saturday Night for the agis the atmosphere there
is going to be electric, is going to be raucous.
It's going to be very loud, and I like the
(34:49):
aggis here plus the five and a half. One of
the reasons the Lawnmarn's offense. It just hasn't been as
explosive in the second half of the season as it
was the first. The last two games qu viewers. He's
down for fewer than two hundred yards in both of
those games against Arkansas and Kentucky and at the Long Horns.
If they're not able to push the ball down the
field in the vertical passing game, I think they're going
(35:10):
to have difficulty running the ball. I mean, it's A
and M front four. They give up three point eight
yards per carry. Nick Skyart in their defensive end, potential
top ten pick in next April's NFL draft, got one
of the best defensive lines in the nation, no question
about it. Defensive tackle Shamark Turner another big time player
who'll get drafted next April. Again, Texas makes the playoffs,
(35:33):
probably with the loss A and M knows it's got
to win to gain a spot in the tournament. You
sum it all up to me. The Aggies are at home,
it's going to be a very loud environment, and the
Longhorns have looked far from invincible in recent weeks. Give
me Texas A and M plus five and a half,
but I'm not sure we're going to need the points.
Speaker 2 (35:54):
All right, Dan, what do you have?
Speaker 4 (35:55):
All right? I am heading to the Big twelve, guys,
I'm staying in the state of Texas, but let's go
West Virginia plus three and a half. I think the
Mountaineers are going to keep this one close if now
outright win this game. I don't trust this Texas Tech
defense whatsoever, and I just think West Virginia's playing a
lot better lately.
Speaker 2 (36:12):
Guys.
Speaker 4 (36:12):
I know Texas Tech just beat Oklahoma State last week,
but everybody is beating Oklahoma State this year. One of
the most disappointing teams in the country West Virginia three
and one against the spread on the road. They've won
a couple of road games in a row here too,
where Texas Tech has not played so well in Lubbock
this year. They've lost back to back home games heading
into this one too. Yeah, give me three and a
half here. I think West Virginia keeps this one close,
(36:35):
and my model says that they should be favored. So
let's go to the Mountaineers.
Speaker 2 (36:39):
All right, guys, there are a lot of interesting, important,
pivotal games this weekend, and the one that I am
going with is is not one of them. I just
I can't take my eyes off it. I'm taking Illinois
with the points Illinois minus seven and a half against Northwestern.
So look, Northwestern has has been outscored pardon me eighty
(37:02):
one thirteen their last two games by Michigan and Ohio State.
Illinois has won its last two, putting up almost forty
points in each of those. Clearly, we've seen some inconsistency
from the fighting line I this year. I get it.
That being said, Northwestern two and six in its last
eight games. It's just not been a good team. Is
(37:24):
the bottom line? Illinois really to get this, you know,
insided ten. I mean I wish we were inside a
field goal, but even inside of ten feels like a
little bit of a victory. Paul, So, Illinois minus the
seven and a half in this one.
Speaker 3 (37:40):
Yeah, good, A good deal there, north Western shortly. You know,
it's been a disappointing season for the Wildcats. They've had troubled,
teneraty offense all year long. In Illinois, you know, they've
had their elements baked Nebraska early in the year on
that Friday n Act and gotten good solid play from
their quarterback Loop. So I certainly think the thoughts you
(38:02):
for taking Illinois there over the Wildcats.
Speaker 2 (38:04):
Dan here shopping this thing around. We can continue doing
that during the break, just to make sure we're giving
you the absolute best numbers. But it does look like
pre boost search we have fan Duel plus six point fifteen,
Caesars plus five ninety six. Either way, it is a
healthy people's parlay, and Paul, hopefully we cash this thing
with you.
Speaker 3 (38:26):
Good deal. I hope, I hope we come through. I'll
be pulling for West Virginia and Illinois back in those
back in those teams, and also Texas A and M
that I recommended.
Speaker 2 (38:37):
Appreciate you, sir, We certainly will be doing all the
same again. Paul Stone he is a college football expert
professional better. He is on Twitter at Paul Stone Sports
has that same website Paulstone sports dot org. Paul, thanks
so much, man, enjoyed Thanksgiving, Have a great holiday with family,
and we'll talk again soon.
Speaker 3 (38:58):
Hey, Sam, do you guys appreciate having.
Speaker 2 (39:00):
Absolutely We'll step aside when we come back some bank
row repairs.
Speaker 1 (39:04):
Now back to The Gambler with Adam Kaufman on six
point eighty WRKO streaming live on the iHeartRadio app, or
tell your smart speaker to play WRKO on iHeartRadio. It's
time for your bank row repair, Howard by today's collision.
Speaker 2 (39:23):
All right, So we don't quite yet have our bank
row repairs with all the plays that we are giving
out here so far. Maybe a little bit later on
in the show. Otherwise, I promised we will add brs
for you available on the Action app. You can count
on that. The Gambler with AK is that handle again.
The People's Parlay one of three we're going to give
out tonight. That's the show record. West Virginia plus three
(39:44):
and a half, Illinois minus seven and a half, Texas
A and M plus five and a half. Those three
together again roughly six to one when you shop it around.
We are going to place it on Caesars with a
thirty three percent foot and is a college football specific
parlay boost and that brings us up to DAN plus
(40:05):
seven ninety three, So a healthy way to start. Yeah, beautiful,
let's let's hit it please. Absolutely, we need it, no
doubt about it. Unfortunately, the people's parlay is dead. Houston
fell in overtime, so that was a bummer, and Toledo
also an overtime loss, which means that bank roll repair
(40:29):
is dead as well. We're gonna come on back. College
basketball talk on the way now.
Speaker 1 (40:35):
W RKO presents Boston's only nightly sports betting show, The
Gambler with Adam Kaufman, covering spreads, props, parlays and more.
The Gambler starts now Here's Adam Kaufman.
Speaker 2 (40:52):
Our number two of The Gambler with Adam Kaufman WRKO.
Check out the podcast search that full name The Gambler
with Adam Kaufman wherever you get your podcasts, where they
are hopefully taking you through some great information conversation, learning
you a little bit and ideally making you some money.
And us got to make ourselves some money along the
(41:13):
way as well. Our thanks to Paul Stone, great stuff
out of him. Really enjoyed the college football conversation. We're
gonna stay in the college ranks. Get to some college
hoops in just a moment. But first and you see
the breaking news, Jeff Passing, Now what happened? Blake Snell
has agreed to a five year, one hundred and eighty
(41:34):
two million dollar contract with the Dodgers. Really was a surprise,
the two time Cy Young winner, first nine figure deal
the winter, and he goes to the chance. So good
are the Dodgers minus money to win the World Series?
Speaker 4 (41:54):
Yet they probably should be right?
Speaker 2 (41:56):
I did just look it up. It's plus three eighty
But my god, like seriously, I mean.
Speaker 4 (42:01):
Howtani's gonna pitch this year? Yep, that's just that's just absurd.
I mean they are losing Flairty, I think, who was
really good for them down the stretch. But still you
had Blake Snell. I thought for there was a chance
he might come here just because Alex Korra has always
loved him.
Speaker 2 (42:14):
Another big one for the Interest Kings.
Speaker 4 (42:17):
Yeah, well, did you see Hector Gomez's report that the
Red Sox have uped their offer in both years? And
uh money, sure, I mean I saw the report, right,
we don't know that it actually happened. And that's not
even me questioning Hector Gomez's reporting so much as the
people feeding him that information. Yeah, no, I completely agree.
Speaker 2 (42:38):
Blake Snell to the Dodgers, him Otani Glass, now Yamamoto
like crazy, absolutely crazy. All right, we don't have a
lot of time. We're gonna have Matt Lamark on talks
of NFL in a little bit. Let's do some college
oops as we you know, Houston let us down, but
we're sweating out, still looking to get two out of
(43:00):
three in the straits Kansas Duke. We need Duke on
the money line, down by three, three and a half
to go here in this one. Let's let's see if
we can get the favorite team. Yeah, well that's yeah,
also true. We've has that one even tipped yet, No.
Speaker 4 (43:17):
They they like a half hour after that Bama Houston
game ends, same.
Speaker 2 (43:20):
Court Okay, so that'll yeah, maybe sometime before we're out
of here. Uh. Cody Mitchell is here and a good
friend of the program as well. We love having Cody
on on Twitter at c Mitchell Hoopsy is the host
of the Bet the Juice podcast. Cody, how are you man?
Speaker 5 (43:38):
I'm doing good?
Speaker 6 (43:38):
Guys.
Speaker 5 (43:39):
Before we get started, I want to say to Dan,
I've been tailing a lot of your NFL picks that
you've been using with the rhythm map, and you've been
making me a ton of money.
Speaker 4 (43:49):
Love that.
Speaker 2 (43:53):
That's awesome, See that, Dan, look at that. People are
paying attention, people helping people.
Speaker 4 (43:57):
That powerful stuff. It's a power you go on.
Speaker 5 (44:00):
To a lot of my friends too, So you make
it a lot of people money.
Speaker 4 (44:03):
Trust me, I aciate appreciate that.
Speaker 2 (44:06):
Yeah, it's you know what the sign is here, Dan,
you gotta triple that unit size?
Speaker 4 (44:10):
Well yeah right, I was gonna say, don't worry. Don't worry, Cody,
I got a rhythm play from the College Basketball model
for you tonight. Can't wait to get your thoughts on it.
Speaker 2 (44:18):
A little bit later, I'm going to start that party
off here, well even before I get into specific games
for tomorrow, and I guess you know, we don't have
a ton of time, like I said, But Cody, how
how has betting the Maui Invitational gone for you so far?
Anything that you know, any any trends that you've sort
of adhered to, h you know, body clock. We talked
to Justin Perry about this last night, betting games early
(44:40):
versus this time of night. How was it all coming
to play for you?
Speaker 5 (44:46):
Well, it seems if you want to take the underdog,
you might want to get on the line early. A
lot of times earlier in the college basketball season, the
public seems to love the.
Speaker 3 (44:54):
Favorite, so that number.
Speaker 5 (44:56):
If you're getting ad you want to bet the favor,
you better get it early because everybody's gonna be on
the favorite, and the number is gonna climb. They're looking
at like a six and a half when it opened.
If you're bet in the favorite, of might close in
at nine and a half. The mallard for me has
actually been pretty good. I you know, Yukon has been
(45:17):
the class of college basketball for the last couple of years,
and the rankings did reflect the respect they've had with
the back to back national champions But there was something
about this roster that was constructed over the offseason that
I just didn't fall in love with. I faded them
and took the points of Memphis. I took the points
in Colorado, and obviously they lost both of those games outright.
(45:40):
I mean, I understand that Alice Caraban is still there,
but a lineup of Diarra Alice Caraban. They brought over
Terris Reid from Michigan. Aiden Mahoney, who came over from
Saint Mary's was a very good guard in the WCC,
but when he ever went up against like some actual
APPA leets kind of struggled a little bit.
Speaker 3 (46:01):
And we've kind of seen that like PJ.
Speaker 5 (46:03):
Haggerty for Memphis kind of got whatever he wanted against
instead of Tyreek Hunter. And I just I'm not as
high on Yukon as I should be now the down
the stretch of the season, I think this team will
be improved and they will be a tournament team. They
will be a threat to make a run at the
Final four. But I just don't think with all the
interchangeable pieces they're there yet, they kind of lacked the athleticism.
(46:24):
But I got to give a shout out to the
Memphis Tigers' I have like slept on Penny Hardaway. I
never thought he was a really good basketball coach, but
he has these boys playing some ball. They dominated Mission State,
O Missigon State kind of kept it close down the
stretch at the end of the game today. But he's
(46:46):
always got talent there. But it seems like this group
actually kind of plays together and that's just pretty well.
He's got two of the better guards in the country,
Taggarty and Tyre's Hunter that.
Speaker 3 (46:54):
Came over from Texas.
Speaker 5 (46:55):
So I got to give a shout out to Penny
because I'm at hate Mont a lot on my show,
So he's me wrong this year.
Speaker 4 (47:01):
So Cody Creighton Blue Jays today without their point guard, Ashworth,
they struggled big time. They lost by eighteen to San
Jose or San Diego State. Excuse me was that? I mean,
I was not impressed watching them one bit. It kind
of seemed like things were off obviously without their point guard.
Now tomorrow they take on a Texas A and M
team that just lost to Oregon. This is a really
short spread with in a possession. Do you think Creighton
(47:24):
can bounce back as they're banged up or would you
lay the points with A and M here.
Speaker 5 (47:29):
I'm gonna lay the points with A and M. Who
is favorite of this game. I haven't got to change
you that wide.
Speaker 4 (47:34):
Yet it's Texas A and M minus two and a half.
Speaker 5 (47:37):
That sounds about right. Yeah. I mean watching that San
Diego State game, basically, if they could not get the
ball download to Ryan Culbretter, it seemed like the Blue
Jays really had no other option.
Speaker 3 (47:47):
He got to think.
Speaker 5 (47:48):
This team is one thing that coach McDermott has not
done in his like great tenure there in Creighton and Omaha.
Speaker 3 (47:58):
He just he lacked a lot of depth and the.
Speaker 5 (48:02):
Guard play without Steven Ashworth, who's the veteran player who's
been in college for teams like seven years. When he
goes out, he's asking a bunch of freshmen to step
up and some younger guys in the program. It just
doesn't seem like they could do it. And Brian Dutcher
is one of the better coaches in college basketball. When
he understands that you have you are a one dimensional offense,
You've dump it down to Ryan kulch Frenter and let
(48:23):
him either dish it out or make a layup. He
can prioritize his defense around that. It seems like that
was the thing there. So I think the athleticism of
Wade Taylor and the bus stall on Buzz Williams will
come in that will be able to take control the
Blue Jays. Now, I'm not gonna hate on the Blue
Jays long term once they give Steven Ashworth there.
Speaker 3 (48:42):
McDermott's still really good coach.
Speaker 5 (48:43):
They still up a lot of talent, and I think
later in the season at biggest plays with the time,
I want to kind of back to Blue Jays.
Speaker 2 (48:50):
You know, for all the Indiana football talk, and I'm
sure you have thoughts on that. We spent some time
on it earlier with Paul Stone. Indiana basketball, fourteenth ranked
team in the country by the way, is in essentially
a Pickham situation with Louisville in its noon tip tomorrow
about twelve hours away Indiana. I'm looking at it on
fan duel favored literally by half a point, so it
(49:11):
is just win fact you're getting a better line on
the money line than taking that spread. Oddly enough, but
what do you make of this game?
Speaker 3 (49:21):
Give me a good It should be a great matchup.
Speaker 5 (49:24):
We've seen both teams have kind of not really played
They've played a lot of infeor opponents outside of Louisville
playing Tennessee in a game where Tennessee just I'm sure
you guys caught I just completely out. This was way
more physical than them and kind of punched them in
the mouth right away, and then Louisville really didn't stand
a chance after that. Indiana kind of started a little
(49:46):
slow their first game against Eastern Illinois. You got to
think there's a lot of intermovable pieces coming in to
the program. But actually, like Indiana in this spot here,
I would take the money line if I'm going to
get a better value there. McKenzie Mabaco. It's kind of
took him to jump in his sophomore season and has
(50:07):
kind of separated himself as like the guy in this program.
And then they bring in Miles a guy like Miles
Rights from Washington State who was the best player or
an NCAA tournament team last year, actually won a game
in the NCAA tournament. A guy they can shoot it
from outside, put the ball on the floor, get to
the hoop.
Speaker 3 (50:23):
He facilitates really well.
Speaker 5 (50:24):
And then you bring in arguably the best player in
the transfer portal in a mirror ballow to protect.
Speaker 3 (50:31):
The paint, and he's.
Speaker 5 (50:34):
Led the team with the rebounds. He's like upwards to
almost ten a game. I think it's Indiana team is
old and just on the For Louisville, it's I think
Louisville is another team that I'm gonna like a little
bit later down the road. I love pal Kelcey, but
he's just too many intermovable pieces. I know he bought
(50:55):
Rene Smith over from Charleston, where he previously coached, but
this team has only played four or five games, can't
remember the exact number together. It's still a little too
not enough time to jell a little bit. I think
Indiana is just going to kind of take the blueprint
out of Brick Barnes and the Tennessee volunteers and kind
of just out physical just Louispool Cardleton.
Speaker 2 (51:16):
All right, let's get to our People's parlay that we
are building for tomorrow with Cody. You've been part of
this a few times. Your official show plays are two
and one. The People's parlay is one and two. So
let's get into it. What's your favorite play for tomorrow?
Speaker 5 (51:32):
So I'm going to take the plus three and a
half with the San Diego State Aztecs against Oregon. Oregon
got a big win today against Texas A and M.
I was actually pretty surprised.
Speaker 3 (51:43):
That won that game.
Speaker 5 (51:43):
I had some money on Texas A and M and that.
But I think San Diego State is still still being
undervalued a little bit. I know Michael Parrish left the
guy that was won the national runner up team a
couple of years ago and went to played in Ohio State,
but Jego State brought up for Nick Boyd. He's also
(52:04):
played in a fine to four who can be nearly
lost to Mike Parrison that in that final four night year.
Allis puts seven points a day in that route against
Creighton and Brian Dutchers is such a good coach. And
I think the defense they run that little stunt and
recover defense where the guards are going to press out
there and they get back and help that defense. And
(52:25):
when they're ever going up to get the team that
is kind of dominated by their wings and their guards.
Speaker 3 (52:31):
They typically are better at shutting them down.
Speaker 5 (52:33):
Because they're not a super tall team, Usually they get
killed more in the paint and Oregon's just not built
to do that. So I'm going to take the three
and a half with the Aztecs. I actually think they'll
win this game out right on the money.
Speaker 4 (52:43):
Lens Dan, all right, so I'm going to head right
to that rhythm model as I was talking about, and
let's start things off read at noon, guys, Let's take
Eastern Kentucky plus ten and a half. The model says
that this line against Louisiana Tech should be closer to
six and a half. Eastern Kentucky covered us. They won
me money earlier today, covering a four and a half
spread by winning outright against Southern Illinois. So yeah, I
(53:06):
like Eastern Kentucky. Here in Louisiana techus the first time
that they've been favored by double digits this season. The
last time they were favored in anything close to this
was a seven and a half spread and they did
not cover in that game. So let's go with Eastern Kentucky.
Speaker 2 (53:19):
So I know that we are supporting West Virginia football
in a few days, but tomorrow we are attacking West Virginia.
I'm taking Gonzaga with the points. It's a lot of
points minus fifteen and a half, but Bulldogs are coming
in averaging almost ninety five points. Per game in this one,
they are just God Duke just they just turned over.
(53:43):
They did so activating Gonzaga. That's we needed that one
three seconds left, Dukes down by one and ah Anyway,
Gonzaga just the offense, like I said, about ninety five
points a game, shooting fifty percent from the field, only
allowing about sixty points per game. West Virginia has gotten
(54:05):
off to a good start, got hammered a couple of
games ago by Pittsburgh. Think it's a solid spot for
the Zags even with all those points. I wouldn't be
surprised if this is a thirty point win, let alone
the fifteen and a half and so Gonzaga to cover
in this one. You couple that with again San Diego
State plus three Eastern Kentucky plus ten and a half,
(54:28):
and that puts us I believe, as of right now
exclusive to fan duel at plus five eighty one. So
we have ourselves a nice people's parlay fellas that will
be chasing tomorrow in the world to college hoops.
Speaker 5 (54:42):
Yeah, Adam, I am a West Virginia fan, and I
would lay the point to Gonzach. They're just not there yet.
I love Darren Debriez. I think it's gonna be great
for the program. It's just going to take some time.
Speaker 2 (54:54):
Best bias is confirmation bias. My friend Cody Mitchell once
again from the bet the Juice Pot cast. Check them
out on Twitter at c Mitchell hoops. Cody appreciate it,
but let's let's make some money tomorrow. Let's do it.
Speaker 5 (55:08):
I appreciate you guys hading me on Absolutely.
Speaker 2 (55:10):
It's another people's parlay in the books. Check them all out.
All the picks were given out on the action app.
The Gambler with Aks to Handle when we come back,
a lot of Thanksgiving and Black Friday football talk with
Fantasy Life Smatt Lamarca, Live lines, locks and long Shots.
Speaker 1 (55:26):
Now back to Boston's only nightly betting show, The Gambler
with Adam Coffman on six point eighty w RKO streaming
live on the iHeartRadio app, or tell your smart speaker
to play WRKO on iHeartRadio.
Speaker 2 (55:47):
We just came annoyingly close Dan to getting overtime between
Kansas and two.
Speaker 4 (55:54):
I saw that was as miss three at the buzzer.
Speaker 2 (55:56):
Miss three at the buzzer that you know I won't
quite go so far as to say it rattled out,
but you know, kid was five feet whatever beyond the
three point line at least. Yeah, and you know went
for the bank and it just you know, hit off
both sides of the you know, ends of the rim
and then popped out. It never went like down into
(56:18):
the cylinder. It wasn't that closed.
Speaker 4 (56:19):
Well, I mean it's a holiday week, the banks are
closed apparently.
Speaker 3 (56:22):
Man.
Speaker 2 (56:23):
Oh, so annoying this, I mean, talk about it. I mean,
I guess we could have been reverse swept, but we
very easily could have swept that People's Parlay today. O
your pick loses in overtime. Justin's pick loses like that,
and my pick, you know, was losing and and got
by in the final seconds and instead leads to a
(56:46):
poor show day, you know, lost I don't know, three
units in change and just very annoying, very annoying. But
you know, we're we're we're hoping for Rutgers tonight, which
should be getting going soon maybe. And on top of that,
obviously we will be building out a third People's Parlay
(57:06):
in this show, which is just such a crazy thing.
We've done two, I don't think we've ever done three before, Dan,
But what the hell.
Speaker 4 (57:13):
Let's let's live going into the hall. Maybe during March Madness.
That's the only time I can think we would have
possibly done it.
Speaker 2 (57:19):
The only reason I feel like we haven't is because
I don't know how I'm gonna put all of this
onto my spreadsheet. I am not.
Speaker 4 (57:27):
Oh yeah, that's gonna be a big, big, big day
for the spreadsheet on the show.
Speaker 2 (57:31):
Yeah, I'm not properly equipped to handle this, But new
columns and whatnot. We'll figure it out, all right. Our
good friend, he hasn't been on in a little while.
I haven't been that long month and a half whatever
it is. I think since baseball season fitting that we
were just talking Baseball's the rich get richer with the
Dodgers signing Blake Snell for anyone that missed that. But
he's staying up past his bedtime just to hang out
(57:54):
with us and talk some NFL, Thanksgiving, Turkey Day and
Black Friday foot ball for all your shopping needs. Matt
Lamarca of Fantasy Life. He is on Twitter at Matt Lamarca. Maddie,
Welcome back.
Speaker 6 (58:08):
Thanks for having me boys. It's a pleasure to be
here for this history making episode with the third people's barlave.
Speaker 2 (58:14):
And you are the one bringing up the rear, which
is a lot of pressure. Actually means it's a.
Speaker 6 (58:20):
Spot that I'm quite familiar with a lot of athletic career.
Speaker 2 (58:26):
Very good. It's wonderful to have you, and you know
these games that we have, and I know it's a
it's a big NFL weekend obviously, but you know, we're
not going to do the usual game by game across
the entire league. We're gonna, you know, tone it down
to the four since we have you for a little
less time than what we would do if we were
doing the full weekend preview. And plus, you know, so
(58:47):
much can happen between now and Sunday in terms of
injury reports and whatnot, and so it's good to hone
in on these Thursday Friday games. Let's start with Thursday
Lions playing host to the Bears. Now, a lot of
people know that, you know, we touched on this last
week that there are a lot of people that were
on the Colts plus eight plus seven and a half
against Detroit and then the Lions just go out and
(59:08):
remind everyone who the bleep they are and absolutely destroy
them ten and one. Now, Bears come in led by
Caleb Williams at four and seven. The offense has been
a little bit better since the change at offensive coordinator there,
but U zero to four on the road so far
for Chicago, Detroit is a covering machine. Nine and two
against the spread. It's a big number, ten points. Even still,
(59:31):
I do like it. You got a team in Chicago
that cannot stop the run, which is the bread and
butter obviously for this Lions team. Even if David Montgomery
is unavailable for this game, what do you think of it?
Speaker 6 (59:44):
Yeah, I'm just not stepping in front of this Detroit
buzzsaw at the moment. I mean, I know plenty of people,
plenty of sharps who think that this Lions team is
due for some regression, and that's probably true to an extent.
They they were not as impressive last week as the
(01:00:06):
final margin indicated. But you mentioned nine and two against
the spread, and it's even crazier than that when you
just look at the entirety of the Dan Campbell era.
They're now fifty one twenty five and one against the spread.
They cover as underdogs, they cover as favorites, it doesn't
really matter. They're just getting the job done. You mentioned
(01:00:29):
from a max up perspective, it's really good for the Lions.
They should be able to run the ball, so I'm
not surprised. It does look like the Sharps kind of
like the Bears at this number, but I am not
going to be going against the Lions here.
Speaker 4 (01:00:45):
So how about the prop markets here in this one, Lamark,
I mean, you got a couple of interesting ones here.
Jamir Gibbs obviously should be getting I think a bigger
alert workload with David Montgomery a little banged up. Jared
Goff's kind of been turning it on here lately. And
then on the other side, well, Detroit's just been like
literally just killing teams. So this could lead to a
lot of garbage time opportunity for Caleb Williams in the
(01:01:06):
passing game. You got DeAndre Swift little narrative play returning
to Detroit here as a member of the Bears. Anything
in the prop streets that you like.
Speaker 6 (01:01:15):
Yeah, So I have been playing the David Montgomery and
Jamier Gibbs anytime touchdowns basically every single week. They're now
getting to a point where they're priced I would say
accurately and pretty aggressively, but you know, I don't think
it's the worst idea in the world. Parliament together, these
(01:01:36):
guys score in the same game every single week. It
feels like, I mean, they rely so heavily on their
running game, especially once they get around the goal line,
that at least one of these dudes is going to score,
if not both of them. I also like the carry
prop on DeAndre Swift. There's a lot of you know,
(01:02:00):
sort of like negative built in with this line. It's
only twelve and a half carries, and part of that
is because the Bears are expected to play from behind,
and part of that is that the Bears went really
past heavy last week and Roachan Johnson is getting into
the mix in this backfield. But you know what, He's
still had at least thirteen carries in ten straight games.
(01:02:23):
The only game of this season where he did not
get to thirteam was all the way back in Week one.
I think, even in you know, a pretty suboptimal situation,
this number is just ultimately too low for me.
Speaker 2 (01:02:36):
I'll mention as well. The Bears are coming off, of course,
an overtime loss, and I read this on Walter Football's website,
teams that just played an overtime game and then have
a turnaround for a Thursday night game. Are six and
twenty five against the spread that includes ozho to three
ats for double digit dogs, and as mentioned, this is
(01:02:59):
a ten points bread and I wouldn't be surprised if
it climbs. Do you care? I know you already said
you're not going to hop in front of the train
that is the Detroit Lions, and I agree with that,
But when you listen to trends like that, do you care?
Speaker 6 (01:03:12):
Do I care about trends? Yes, Trends can be good
and trends can be stupid, right, I think if you're
telling me that you know on the third Sunday in
September to a tack of Ioloa has never not covered
the spread, to me, that's a stupid trends. But telling
me that teams that are playing on short rests to
(01:03:34):
begin with, who are coming off of overtime the week before,
like logically you would expect those teams to struggle, So
when you have some statistical data to back that up,
I think that that definitely qualifies as a good trend.
I love when you're talking about good trends. I think
(01:03:55):
they can really inform you as.
Speaker 3 (01:03:56):
A sports better.
Speaker 4 (01:03:59):
So next game, guys, perfect four to thirty Eastern time,
kickoff just in time for dinner. Tommy DeVito, most likely
he's a little banged up question will have been a
limited participant in practice against Cooper Rush and the Cowboys.
Giants Cowboys in Dallas, Lamarka. The Cowboys are laying three
and a half here at home.
Speaker 6 (01:04:19):
Yeah, I'm calling this the Turkey nap Bowl.
Speaker 4 (01:04:21):
Yep.
Speaker 6 (01:04:22):
You know, after dinner, I'll have the game on. I'll
be watching, of course, but you know, if my eyes
get a little heavy and they close for a couple
of minutes, you know there's no harm, no foul. I
don't think that anybody is going to be complaining that
they missed a couple minutes of this giant Cowboys thriller
that we've got on the schedule. So I laid the
(01:04:43):
point here with Dallas. I took them at minus three.
I don't mind them at minus three and a half either.
I do think that there's an argument to be made
for the Giants, right, Like Dallas is not a particularly
good team, do they deserve to be favored by three
and a half against anyone? Probably not most teams. But
(01:05:03):
I think this Giants team is just really waving the
white flag at this point. I mean, last week's came
against the Buccaneers was a disaster of epic proportions. They had,
you know, the strength of this team as their defensive line,
and they were facing an offensive line that was missing
their best player, and they still got zero sacks. Baker
Mayfield did whatever he wanted, the Bucks ran through them,
(01:05:28):
and this Cowboys team showed a little bit of fight
last week against the Commander. So you know, maybe it's
a letdown spot for Dallas and this number is too high,
but I don't see.
Speaker 3 (01:05:38):
It that way.
Speaker 6 (01:05:39):
I think that when a team has clearly given up,
like this Giants team, as you kind of just got
to pile on. And I think that's what Dallas is
going to do this week.
Speaker 2 (01:05:48):
Lamark thirty seconds on this one. New York eight and
three to the under, Dallas seven and four to the over.
It's low total thirty seven. You have an opinion on it,
not really.
Speaker 6 (01:05:57):
I would lean towards the under divisional game under two
bad quarterbacks, under seems better to me.
Speaker 2 (01:06:04):
All Right, we can mix in some props Dolphins, Packers, Raiders,
Chiefs still to come, as well as a People's parlay.
Speaker 1 (01:06:11):
We need to vent about bad bets. You've come to
the right place, tell us about it.
Speaker 4 (01:06:16):
Call six one.
Speaker 1 (01:06:17):
Seven two six six six eight six eight. That's six
one seven two six six six eight six eight. Or
if you're listening on the iHeartRadio app, use the top
back button. Now back to the Gambler with Adam Kauffman
on WRKO.
Speaker 2 (01:06:34):
Matt Lamark is here for fantasy life. We're looking ahead
to the football this week off the weekend quite yet
Thursday and Friday. We'll build out of People's Parlay shortly
as well, Lamark. We just still have two games to
get to Dolphins, Packers, Raiders, Chiefs. But anything interest you
in the prop market in that Giants Cowboys game you
plan to sleep through.
Speaker 6 (01:06:56):
That's probably the game where I have the leash interest
in the problem market at the moment. I did take
some elk Neighbors under reception, but I don't like that
one quite as much as some of the other props
on this slate.
Speaker 2 (01:07:12):
Very good. Let's get into Dolphins Packers here. Miami has
been playing a bit better too, obviously is looking better
since the concussion, but You know, all anyone wants to
talk about with this game is late November Lambeau Night,
weather concerns, temperatures in the twenties. Florida team like Packers
are gonna wipe the floor with them. And yet everybody
(01:07:34):
that I pay attention to, I see them betting the hook,
betting Miami plus three and a half. Again, you got
Wattles coming off a great game. Hill's been, you know,
kind of up and down. Hasn't been a great season
for him for a variety of reasons. They have done
an incredible job of really getting John Smith and Devon
a Chan involved in the receiving game. And those two
(01:07:56):
guys are it feels like, exceeding their props on a
weekly basis. What do you make of this contest?
Speaker 6 (01:08:02):
I think the weather has been completely overblown in this game. Now,
things can change between now and Thursday night, but the
current forecast calls for it to be like just barely
below freezing and the winds are going to be sub
ten miles an hours from what I've seen. Again, this
can change, but if that's the case, that's like barely
(01:08:25):
winter football. This is not going to be the same
thing as when Tua and the Dolphins went into Arrowhead
Stadium in the playoffs last year that was like apocalyptically
cold and the winds were so strong that he couldn't
throw the ball through them. That doesn't seem like that's
(01:08:47):
going to be the case in Green Bay. So I
like the three and a half year with Miami. I
really do you look at what this team has done
since two has come back. There's three and two and
they're two long. Have been by one point to the Cardinals,
by three points to the Bills on the road. That's
a really good result. With how Buffalo has been playing.
(01:09:10):
I think this team is undervalued. On the other side,
you look at the Packers and yes, they have won
a lot of games this season, but they have also
failed to cover in a good handful of their wins.
So I think three and a half is too much.
And I will gladly take the hook here and you know,
just pray that the weather is it holds up enough
(01:09:32):
for Tua in this spot.
Speaker 4 (01:09:34):
Anything prop wise in this one. I mean, these two
defenses have been pretty good this season.
Speaker 6 (01:09:40):
Yeah, I think again, if you like the Dolphins like
I do, you kind of want to play the over
on some of these Dolphins pass catcher props and even
the two of yardage props. I think they're all in place.
Jalen Waddell receptions is set at three and a half.
That feels really low. Donald Smith, you mentioned his receip
leaving yardage the last few weeks is propas at forty two.
(01:10:03):
So again, if you think that this that the weather
is not going to be as big of a deal
as you know, maybe some do. I think there is
some opportunity to buy some of these guys in the
prop market.
Speaker 2 (01:10:15):
Raiders two and nine, one in five on the road
at the ten and one, perfect five and zero at Arrowhead,
Chiefs Gardner Minshew done for the season, broken collarbone. A
lot of people are hoping and praying it would be
Desmond Ritter, just so we could, you know, invite the
books to take our money at that point in time,
but it's going to be Aid and O'Connell instead returning
(01:10:36):
from his thumb injury. Again, another game that we have
a big spread here, obviously looking at Casey God minus twelve.
Now this thing just keeps on climbing and they don't
cover these big numbers. It's wild. Kansas City is five
and six against the spread and oh in six unspread
six and a half or higher. Yeah, and already we
(01:10:57):
saw a backdoor cover that the Raiders got against the
Chiefs earlier this season when they matched up, which was
a Kansas City win. But yeah, we just saw them
as double digit favorites against Carolina and had to eke
one out with a field goal thirty to twenty seven.
So look, I don't think you're going to find too
many skeptics as to whether Kansas City matt is going
(01:11:18):
to win. But do they cover the number?
Speaker 6 (01:11:23):
I always fade the Chiefs in these spots, and at
the end of the season, I expect to be up
more than I'm down. So I can't say with a
ton of certainty that I feel great about the Raiders
in this spot. But am I going to take them
at the current number? Absolutely? You mentioned some of the
against the spread stuff with Mahomes. Since the start of
(01:11:46):
the twenty twenty season, he's now twenty to thirty five
and one against the spread when laying more than a
field goal, twelve twenty and one against the spread when
laying more than a touchdown. It's just this is them
out right. They put just well enough to win during
the regular season. They know, Patrick Mahomes, all they have
(01:12:09):
to do is keep the game close and will ultimately
get the win in the end, because that's how it is.
So I'm expecting kind of a similar scenario here. I
mean it should shock and it's closer than expected, and well,
seeing this number start down, h thirteen set down, But
(01:12:32):
I'm not sure if that's because of an O'Connell or
if it's just people that want to sort of fade
the Chiefs in this narrative. So either way, it wouldn't
shock me if this number continued to drop just.
Speaker 3 (01:12:45):
A little bit lower before kickoff.
Speaker 6 (01:12:46):
But I like the Raiders getting anything better than like
twelve points.
Speaker 2 (01:12:53):
All right, anything you want to slide in dan on
props before we get to the parlayer?
Speaker 4 (01:12:56):
Do we pretty much need to get to the parlor?
I think we got to get to the parlor.
Speaker 2 (01:12:59):
All right, let's get to the parlay, Lamarky, you've been
through this a number of times. I don't need to
explain to you how it works. I certainly with the
third one of the day, don't need to explain it
to our listeners. What I will tell you is that
your official plays on the show are four and five
on the parlay, we are still profitable three and six.
Let's see if we can make it four and six.
(01:13:20):
What do you have, sir?
Speaker 6 (01:13:22):
I'm taking the Dolphins plus three and a half point
for all the reasons I just mentioned. I just think
that this narrative that Tua can't play in the cold
like it's probably true, but I don't think that it's
cold enough that Disraeli is going to qualify for the
Dolphins this week. So give me the points with Miami.
Speaker 4 (01:13:42):
Dan, all right, looks like we're doing a little SGP fellas.
I'm gonna run back my play from this past Sunday.
Jalen Wattle, let's go over forty three and a half
on Fandel It's forty four and a half everywhere else.
I still like that model's got it projected for well
over fifty yards for Wattle here. He torched this green
secondary when they last played a couple of years ago.
I think Miami unlocked him this past week. I think
(01:14:05):
they've realized, Hey, we have a pretty darn good wide
receiver number two in Jalen Waddle, and we got to
get him the ball more because he can make plays.
I think he'll do that here against the Green Bay
Secondary and get us to at least forty five yards
on Thursday night.
Speaker 2 (01:14:19):
I actually think there are a lot of interesting spots
in the prop market that we could tackle. But I'm
gonna play it a little boring, I guess, and I'm
just I'm gonna go with my heart, go with my gut,
as we like to say on this show, fellas, And
you need me to get to you because I'm taking
the Lions to cover in the first game. Like LaMarcus said,
(01:14:39):
I just it's not even not wanting to get in
front of this train that is Dan Campbell's Detroit Lions.
It is believing that they are just that much better
heads and shoulders above the rest of the NFL and
certainly this Chicago competition come Thursday. So I will take
Detroit minus ten in this game. And looks like between
(01:15:02):
minus ten for Detroit plus three and a half Dolphins
waddle over unreceiving yards ESPN. Thank you, Dan, plus five
sixty eight for this people's parlay, Fellas, looks good.
Speaker 3 (01:15:16):
I can dig it.
Speaker 6 (01:15:18):
And one final caveat I just want to give to
all of your listeners, don't be the square that just
parlays all a favorite on Thanksgiving. The sportsbooks love you
for that, but don't don't be that someone is going
to disappoint.
Speaker 2 (01:15:32):
I would assume you think it's going to be the Packers,
given your plus three and a half on Miami.
Speaker 3 (01:15:38):
I hope.
Speaker 2 (01:15:38):
So, yeah, well we hope. So we're rooting for you,
rooting for us, rooting all of us all together. Thank
you very much, sir, Matt Lamarca on Twitter at Matt Lamarca.
He is from Fantasy Life, among other spots. We always
enjoy when you hop on, sir. We'll do it again soon.
Speaker 6 (01:15:55):
Happy Thanksgiving to him, Happy Thanksgiving to you and the
listeners out there.
Speaker 2 (01:16:00):
Absolutely we appreciate that. Football, friends, fun, food, other f words,
probably some fwords. If people start talking politics, we'll step aside.
Wrap this show up, livelines, locks and long shots. Now
back to Boston's only nightly betting show, The Gambler with
Adam Kaufman on six point eighty WRKO streaming live on
(01:16:24):
the iHeartRadio app, or tell your smart speaker to play
WRKO on iHeartRadio.
Speaker 3 (01:16:34):
Dan.
Speaker 2 (01:16:34):
I am exhausted.
Speaker 4 (01:16:35):
It's a lot, man. I'm sweating in here, you know,
I mean he's broken in this room, so that's probably
the air conditioning.
Speaker 3 (01:16:42):
Yeah, it doesn't help.
Speaker 2 (01:16:43):
Now, three great guests, tons of information. I honestly, it's
not often that I go back and like then I
feel like I need to re listen to a show
that I just hosted, and I feel like I need
to go back and revisit this program. A lot, three
different sports, there's a lot the I mean, I don't
question our guests, Paul Stone, Cody Mitchell, Matt Lamark, and
(01:17:06):
they were incredible. I hope that we sounded intelligible along
the way. Trying to balance it all. Yeah, same, that's
always my biggest fear. So we gave out twelve bets.
Oh my god, if you include, of course, the people's parlay,
you know themselves. Three people's parlays are nine straits. The
(01:17:27):
group play too, oh in the group play. Yeah, that's true.
It's a good point. Speaking of the group play, surely,
Rutgers is down by seven about six minutes to go
in the opening half. Notre Dame or pardon me, unc.
North Carolina is faring no better though, So.
Speaker 4 (01:17:46):
Yeah, Rutgers is just ice cold right now, only shooting
thirty percent as a team.
Speaker 2 (01:17:50):
And one turn that around.
Speaker 4 (01:17:51):
Yeah, one for seven from three, So hopefully they figured
that out here.
Speaker 2 (01:17:54):
Yeah, I would love to not have a minus five
unit day to day, so we could flip that around.
That would be great. One thing we did talk about,
by the way, We're not gonna necessarily introduce it here
tonight because I want to give We gave out a lot.
I want to take a breath, Mike. Who knows, maybe
the first one will be given out on the action app.
(01:18:16):
It's always important to follow us there the Gambler with Ak.
But these group picks, which I think were a great
idea by Dan. I mean, I really hope we don't
start zero two on them, but I think the idea
is great. We were also discussing some narrative street place
because so I don't know how much I talk about
it on the air, but I certainly will complain about
(01:18:39):
it in our text thread that I'm such a narrative
street thinker, not always better, but thinker, and it drives
me nuts when there is a narrative that I don't
bet and it hits like for instance, Jake Debruss scoring
a goal in his return to Boston tonight, Yeah, one
goal in the game. Who scored it, Jake Debrusk. So
(01:19:02):
it's not necessarily going to be a nightly thing. We
don't want to force the thing. But I do think
we should start to give out some narrative street plays. Sure,
and you brought up and it's a good one. You know,
we won't lock it in yet because there are multiple
ways to attack it. But you brought up DeAndre Swift
returning to Detroit to do his receiving yards. Lamarca mentioned
(01:19:24):
his carries, obviously his rushing yards, So I mean there
are a bunch of different ways you could do.
Speaker 4 (01:19:28):
Yeah. I do think they will get him involved in
this game Thursday. They have to have to.
Speaker 2 (01:19:32):
So yeah, and I am inclined. I don't know about you.
Assuming they're down as big as I think they're going
to be down obviously, I just took Detroit minus ten.
I think it's going to be more as a pass
catcher than as a rusher.
Speaker 4 (01:19:46):
Yeah, for sure, I agree with that, all right.
Speaker 2 (01:19:49):
Our thanks to Matt to Paul to Cody again. Check
out The Gambler with ak on the Action app for
all of our plays, including the ones that we continue
to add. Everyone, Happy Thanksgiving. We'll talk to you soon.
Speaker 1 (01:20:02):
You've been listening to The Gambler with Adam Kaufman on
six point eighty WRKO, Boston's first and only nightly sports
betting show, airing live Monday through Thursday nights from ten
to midnight.
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Listen on demand.
Speaker 1 (01:20:16):
Download The Gambler with Adam Kaufman podcast on the iHeartRadio app,
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Speaker 4 (01:20:25):
Gambling Problem Hope is here.
Speaker 2 (01:20:27):
Call one eight hundred three two.
Speaker 1 (01:20:29):
Seven fifty fifty or visit Gambling heelplinema dot org. Goodnight
from the Gambler Studio