October 18, 2024 • 19 mins
Gregg and Cynthia Frelund are back for another week of Man vs Model head-to-head pick battle. Our duo dive right into their week 7 picks. First, Cynthia gives us her pick for the Jets at Steelers (1:51). Gregg then gives us his first pick with Patriots at Jaguars (2:56). Next, Cynthia and Gregg give us their second picks, Panthers @ Commanders (5:20) and Seahawks at Falcons (7:13). Next, we hear Gregg and Cynthia's third and final picks, Texans at Packers (9:46) and Raiders at Rams (12:40). Finally, we hear Gregg's extra picks (14:50).
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to another NFL Daily where we missed the hell
out of Cynthia Freeland.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Last week.
Speaker 3 (00:14):
We missed you.
Speaker 1 (00:15):
We needed her me, we got her in the studio. Yes,
I'm back in the Chris Wesley podcast studio with my
friend Cynthia Freeland.
Speaker 2 (00:24):
We missed you.
Speaker 1 (00:24):
Yeah, was in London last week. Neil Reynolds stepped in
and picked games for you. He didn't win a single game,
he went oh to three. But because we're professional, we
did get your picks. The listeners are going to just
have to trust us on this one that you went
to and one great on your pick.
Speaker 2 (00:40):
Sel.
Speaker 4 (00:40):
I mean, listen, we can show them the email proof.
It's not like it's not there.
Speaker 1 (00:44):
Yes, it is absolutely true. You had Washington wrong last week.
But you got that half a freaking point. Yes, but
you got the Texans covering easily and the Bears covering easily.
When I saw your Bears pick, I was like, why
didn't I take the Bears? I felt so strong about
that game there in London, and then it happened I
went too and one as well. I got the Lions
(01:04):
and the Steelers both covering comfortably and the Giants not
even coming very close. So two and one for me
gets me to eight and ten on the season. You're
nine and nine. My extra picks did poorly last week,
so I'm down to eleven and six and my extra
picks we do have a couple. Eleven and six is great,
still very good, but I went zero and three last week. Okay,
let's start well, I'll let you start every week. By
(01:26):
the way, if you're new to the show, both Cynthia
and I, two of the foremost prognosticators in the business,
picked three games against the spread.
Speaker 4 (01:35):
Okay, for my first pick this week, I would like
to go with Listen, I'm i woof this one's gonna
be spicy, but I'm going with the Jets plus one
and a half. Okay, I think the Jets went out right,
So if you're gonna also give me another point and
a half, I will take it.
Speaker 2 (01:57):
I have the Jets winning this game as well.
Speaker 1 (01:59):
On our show debut, which, by the way, people could
they can dvyards on early Friday mornings on Sunday.
Speaker 2 (02:04):
Morning early if you're on late night specific Saturday, Yeah,
it's very early. What do you like?
Speaker 1 (02:09):
Does your model put a DeVante trade into the mix
and how much does that change anything. Does it put
Russell Wilson into the mix? Does that change anything there?
Speaker 4 (02:21):
You know, the Russell Wilson thing just added more passes
with actually added more volatility because the Jets defense is
very good. And then if you look on the other side,
Davante Adams has been the reliable option for Aaron Rodgers
on quick passes basically for ever since they were together, right, So,
I don't know, it kind of bolstered the Jets odds
no matter what. And I think the line moved half
(02:41):
a point with Davante and I'm like, fine, I.
Speaker 2 (02:43):
Don't care, but you moved at another a point or something.
Speaker 4 (02:47):
Yeah, I went over and above, Yes, whatever the movement was.
Speaker 1 (02:50):
Yes, you have them. When I like that, I agree
with you. But that's not going to be one of
my three picks I'm going to make. I'm going to
continue to make the mistake of picking the Patriots it
to cover the spread.
Speaker 3 (03:01):
I have it too.
Speaker 2 (03:02):
Five and a half is okay?
Speaker 1 (03:04):
Yeah, Like, you got to have a code as someone
that's picking games, and one of my codes, one of
my ways I would I do this would be some
teams just aren't worthy of being heavy favorites and the
Jaguars are one of those teams like you can put
any NFL team out there against the Jaguars. I do
not think they should be a five and a half
(03:25):
point favorite in any scenario whatsoever, and this is that scenario.
It's a neutral field game, you could say JAG's home game,
but it's not gonna really matter. I'm sure the Patriots
fans will actually travel pretty well and it'll be even,
but it'll be mostly just people enjoying the game.
Speaker 2 (03:40):
It'd be fun atmosphere. They're at Wimbley.
Speaker 1 (03:42):
So giving the Jaguars five and a half points after
a week where I think Olie Connelly on our recap
show said it well, watching the sidelines, He's never seen
a more disconnected team emotionally in his life, and now
they got to go spend a whole week together in London.
Everyone's miserable. People think the head coach is gonna get
fired just sight unseen. I kind of almost like the
(04:03):
Patriots straight up. I'm not ready to go there because
the last thing I did before I came in to
the studio today was watch Patriots Texans and it was
a reminder this is a bottom five defense. Trevor Lawrence
has actually played pretty well the last couple of weeks.
They're just more talented than the Patriots when their offense
is on the field against a pretty poor Patriots defense.
There they're not beginning coach very well, so that maybe
(04:26):
the Jaguars win this game. But five and a half points.
With Drake may making some plays last week that was
he is very volatile, so it could go really well
and he probably could have some negative plays. But this
this Jag secondary hasn't made any plays all year.
Speaker 4 (04:39):
I mean, Andre Cisco had like the one good play
and then there was allegations that he said their team quit.
Speaker 3 (04:44):
So yes, I don't know what's true or not.
Speaker 4 (04:46):
I just know that it looks like a mess and
that weird hockey line and subbing in thing that the
Jags are doing up.
Speaker 3 (04:52):
Front watch their defensive front.
Speaker 4 (04:53):
Yes, they like do hockey line substitutions like you know,
like up first first line, second light like it's it's wild.
I've never seen you ually see one or two players
kind of on certain downs coming out and not like
they're they're like summing out five layers.
Speaker 1 (05:05):
Well, that's the one part of the game that does
worry me a little. Bit Trayvon Walker has had some
good games. Josh heinz Allen is still there. Ark armsit's there.
So that matchup against the Patriots offensive line. But that's
one of the reasons why. Just as a little bonus
on our show game debut for my write this down
this week, I was like, Drake May over rushing yard
in total, so that was like twenty nine and a half.
That's not one of my picks here. I guess it's
(05:26):
an extra pick. I'm throwing that in the xtra pick
in the box because he's gonna when I think they're
telling Drake May. Essentially, if you don't see anything and
the rush comes quickly, like run dude, and he did it. Well,
run dude. He is athletic enough to do it. So
is that going to be one of your three pills?
Speaker 2 (05:41):
Okay? Huh Okay?
Speaker 4 (05:42):
My next one is Washington by seven and a half
points against Carolina.
Speaker 2 (05:46):
Okay, that that makes a lot of sense to me.
Explain why?
Speaker 3 (05:49):
Well what I mean?
Speaker 4 (05:51):
Number one, Listen, there's so many good things to like
about Jayden Daniels, but the one thing I want to
talk about on the other side of the game is
the fact that no Jonathan Allen now, and now that's
going to be difficult to overcome. But I actually have
seen their defense defending passes a little bit better in
recent weeks. I'm not gonna call them a good pass defense.
(06:11):
I'm not gonna say that they're not going to give
up a deep play. I'm not gonna say that if
Deontay Johnson plays, he's not gonna get the hands, none
of that.
Speaker 3 (06:17):
What I am going to say.
Speaker 4 (06:18):
Is that their ability to contain these chunk plays on
every single down is limited more than Jayden Daniel's ability
to create such things on the other side. So I
think seven and a half, I have them an eleven
point win. And you know, my pretty conservative. So if
my model seeing eleven points seven and a half is
like you know, the big gapes, yeah, I'm way more
(06:41):
conservative than most models.
Speaker 2 (06:43):
I like that.
Speaker 1 (06:43):
I agree with that one too, if I had to
pick that one. Andy Dalton's playing just well enough that
you could see him like scoring some late touchdowns and
make you sweat it. But that defense is just just terrible.
Jadavin Clowney is still out of practice. Deontay Johnson out
of practice the first couple of days of the week,
of his teammates said that he will play.
Speaker 2 (07:01):
Xavier Laget said, well.
Speaker 4 (07:03):
If Xavier Laget says it, it must be true.
Speaker 1 (07:06):
Xavier Legett also says he has if he scores two
touchdowns in this game, he has like a second part
of his horse galloping celebration.
Speaker 2 (07:14):
I don't know if you've been.
Speaker 4 (07:15):
Tracking, but there's a second part.
Speaker 1 (07:17):
He has, the second part that he's ready to unveil,
but he has to score two touchdowns.
Speaker 3 (07:21):
I'm so glad.
Speaker 2 (07:22):
Yeah, what you are saying is unlikely.
Speaker 1 (07:24):
Washington, that's your second pick minus seven and.
Speaker 2 (07:27):
And a half.
Speaker 3 (07:28):
Yep, don't forget that hook.
Speaker 1 (07:29):
I'm so I'm like on the fence of what my
next couple of picks are going to be. Let's go
with the one I feel better about. Okay, Seattle plus
three yep, this is more of a hunch. Byron Murphy
returns this week. I think he's really important for that defense. Yes,
they've been getting pushed around in the middle. If he's there,
he can make everyone around him better. I like the
(07:50):
extra rest factor. The Seahawks play on Thursday night. Falcons
off of a normal week like that. The Falcons are
also the the they can't keep getting away with this team,
you know what I mean, Like every week it's just like, okay, Falcons,
like they've won three in a row, the Seahawks have
lost three in a row. And when sometimes that happens
(08:13):
and I see two teams that I believe are pretty
close overall and talent and overall ability, I think, like this,
those streaks are gonna end. That's how it works out. Now,
that's not like a statistical way to really look at it,
but I do think Mike McDonald, their defensive coach, with
a few extra days to work on it, looks at
this Falcons offense, which is limited in the passing game,
(08:35):
Kirk Cousins every week he can't move. It's the play
actions not working. You're probably getting Tarrek wollenback for this
game too, for Seattle. So I like, okay, freaky, he
switched it. And I know the Falcons like rushing attack
has been getting a little better, so that worries me somewhat,
but I think Seattle can throw on them.
Speaker 2 (08:54):
I'm going to Seattle plus three, okay.
Speaker 3 (08:57):
I mean I like all that.
Speaker 4 (08:58):
One thing I really like in this game is a
dk Metcalf touchdown, who in large part because the go
route has been where he's been so great, and the
opportunity here I did see. By the way, it is
worth noting that Justin Simmons was on the injury report
for the Falcons. Should that be something that happens, then
we're gonna want to say, like, maybe look at the
numbers for Tyler Lockett or Jack Okay, Jigbud, make them
(09:21):
a little higher. But ultimately I think the go route
DK metcalf back on track with those games that are
like three, you know, one hundred plus. He had three
of those and touch out whatever, So I like a touchdown.
Speaker 1 (09:31):
I also like that he has been the main character
this week in Seattle, just in the media of everyone
talking about him coming off of a bad game and
why it didn't work out, and it's like he's not
being the squeaky wheel necessarily, but it's that same sort
of idea of they want to just.
Speaker 2 (09:45):
Get him back on track after being the main character.
Speaker 1 (09:48):
All right, give me your last pick, Cynthia Freelan, I
know this on fire got back to five hundred.
Speaker 2 (09:53):
Here, let's go.
Speaker 4 (09:54):
This one is going to be someone I know you
disagree with, so cause I think we need some dissension. Okay,
read too much and now I'm going to pick Houston
and I'm going to take a field goal. Thank you
very much at lambeau Field. I think that this is
an opportunity.
Speaker 3 (10:09):
Number one.
Speaker 4 (10:10):
A lot of Green Bay's wide receiving corps has ended
up on the injury report that is number one, including
Jayden Reid number two. Jordan Love splits when under pressure
versus not when under pressure. Our massive biggest erosion in
passer reading this year, like the most touchdowns passes, but
also like most interceptions. It is it is high risk
it biscuit whatever that remember.
Speaker 1 (10:30):
That was very no risk it no biscuit. Bruce Arians
believe it was.
Speaker 2 (10:34):
No.
Speaker 1 (10:34):
It was not the name of his book. The name
of his book was The Quarterback Whisper. And I read it,
but a lot of it, a lot of no risk
and no biscuit.
Speaker 4 (10:41):
Do you want to know a book I've read, Total
Access by Rich Eyes.
Speaker 2 (10:45):
That's the only one that's or just you just wanted
to brag.
Speaker 4 (10:48):
No. I somebody like told me that in order to
work with Rich I needed They were messing with me
and they were like, in order to work with Rich
you need to read his book.
Speaker 1 (10:56):
You know, that's really funny. I've read that book as well,
and I was not even told that. I you know,
I'm just I'm a completist. That was even before I
worked at NFL Network. I believe it's called a Journey
into the NFL's.
Speaker 2 (11:09):
Something like that.
Speaker 4 (11:09):
Yeah, and he had hair. Anyways, it was crazy. But
I'm back to Houston. Yeah, I think this number one
defense in terms of bringing the heat. They're the best
rush defense in the league, and they back it up
with a passer rating allowed being the lowest when they
get pressure on quarterbacks. So in my estimation here, especially
with Joe Mixon back in the fold, when they have
(11:31):
that extra fold in the run game, even without Nico Collins,
I would like it better if Nico were playing, but
we don't have that option. This is an opportunity for
Houston to kind of take that step forward.
Speaker 1 (11:41):
You're the third smart person I've heard make this pick
in the last hour or two.
Speaker 4 (11:46):
Well, I mean I feel like it you might have been.
It might have been we were in the meeting together.
Speaker 2 (11:50):
Yeah, not even counting that meeting.
Speaker 1 (11:52):
I'm like, I was listening to a podcast to you,
like Green Bay minus three was going to be one
of my picks.
Speaker 2 (11:58):
We were going to go head to head, but go ahead.
Speaker 1 (12:01):
I already was leaning towards jumping off of it, partly
because I just enjoy watching CJ.
Speaker 2 (12:07):
Stroud so much.
Speaker 1 (12:08):
I think he's the best quarterback in the league in
the pocket right now, and it's so hard to pick
against him that, even though I do believe Green Bay
will win and cover the three, to make it one
of my top three picks, feels a little rich.
Speaker 2 (12:23):
Now.
Speaker 1 (12:23):
They are missing a lot of defensive starters. Houston potentially,
Jimmy Ward not expected to play, Kamari Lassiter I think
is not expected to play. A couple of the linebackers
are maybe's.
Speaker 2 (12:34):
I don't know.
Speaker 1 (12:34):
This may be factor makes it. It is tricky, but it
is tricky. We don't know for sure. So you're gonna
move me off of that pick. I am going to
put it in my extra picks. Yeah, put in the box.
It's there, great, don't put it in the box. The
box is good.
Speaker 2 (12:48):
Okay.
Speaker 1 (12:48):
So, going back to what I was saying about, the
Jaguars don't deserve to be five and a half point
favorites over anyone. I don't think the Rams deserve to
be touchdown over anyone. I know the Raiders are bad,
but the Raiders, like every other week, have this performance
where it's like, oh, like we really we really stunk
last week. And Antonio Pierce laid into is that we're
(13:09):
gonna play hard and we're gonna be better on defense
than you think. And I don't necessarily think they're gonna
win this game. I would certainly pick the Rams, who
are maybe getting Cooper Cup back, it's looking positive for
that they're coming off a bye, but they're a one
win team getting a touchdown at home, and there's no
home field advantage in particular when you're playing the Raiders
in Los Angeles. Not that that's like informing my decision
(13:30):
too much, it's well.
Speaker 3 (13:31):
Not for the Raiders, for the Raiders's kind of like that's.
Speaker 1 (13:33):
What I that's what I mean like, But I just
I don't think their defense is going to be this
bad all season long. Sean McVay and the Rams have
just dealing with so many different issues. They've They've changed
their secondary up, their linebackers are still very vulnerable. The
Raiders are one of the worst teams in the league,
but I just feel like a one win Rams team
(13:54):
does not deserve to be favored by a touchdown over anyone.
Speaker 4 (13:57):
I mean I have them at a touchdowns, So I'm
kind of like.
Speaker 2 (14:01):
Okay, are on the fence or whatever? All right? That
that is my third pick. I'm gonna take the Raider.
Speaker 1 (14:05):
I'm gonna be bold because i feel like when I've
not been bold in this segment, what's happened is I've
taken all my bold picks and I've put them over
in the in the box, which are my extra picks,
and those extra picks have been better the box.
Speaker 3 (14:19):
So be spicy on the show, be boring in the box.
Speaker 2 (14:22):
Okay.
Speaker 1 (14:23):
So to review our picks, your picks are Washington minus
seven and a half.
Speaker 2 (14:27):
Yep. You have the Jets winning over the Steelers. Yep.
Speaker 3 (14:30):
But I get one and a half points in case.
Speaker 1 (14:32):
Yeah, it's been it's been moving around there. You get
one and a half. Houston is a three point underdog
in Green Bay. So those are Cynthia's picks. I'm taking
the Pats getting five and a half in London, taking
the Seahawks getting three in Atlanta, and taking the Vegas
Raiders getting a touchdown in Los Angeles. So I'm taking
(14:54):
three underdogs this week, and then just because I like
to have a little fun, I like it, I give
people some extra picks. We have it Ravens minus four.
This is just like I feel like taking the Ravens
every week at this point, unless they just like proved
me wrong. This Buccaneers defense has a lot of issues.
I know you disagree with this one though you had
the Ravens only by one in.
Speaker 4 (15:14):
This It depends on what happens with like if Mike
Evans isn't playing, things shift.
Speaker 2 (15:19):
So I don't know this good.
Speaker 4 (15:21):
This one I don't feel great about, like as I
don't know when you get on the injury report like
after Wednesday, any you went on the Andrew report on Thursday.
Speaker 3 (15:28):
Like that doesn't feel good.
Speaker 2 (15:29):
That's it so good. It's a tricky one.
Speaker 1 (15:31):
This offense is just so good that I have a
hard time seeing Tampa Bay keeping up.
Speaker 2 (15:37):
I have the Packers minus three.
Speaker 1 (15:39):
I gave all the reasons already there, and then I'm
going Brown's plus five and a half. I had them
written down last week, and then I crossed them out
because I just I even said it on the podcast,
so it didn't count. I was like, I just can't
in good conscience pick a team yep, run by Deshaun Watson.
But even though I really liked them getting nine points
in Philadelphia, and you know what they did cover and
(16:00):
they get Nick Chubb back, So I look at it
like I'm not picking at Deshaun Watson team.
Speaker 2 (16:05):
I'm picking a Nick Chubb team.
Speaker 1 (16:06):
And this is a division matchup, which the Browns have
done very well in the Zach Taylor era. They've traditionally
beaten Zach Taylor's teams, especially in Cleveland. Not that that's
a huge deal, but I do think division matchups maybe
make mismatches closer. And I'm just not really all in
on like this Bengals defense has solved everything.
Speaker 2 (16:26):
So give me five and a half points, I'll take
the Browns.
Speaker 4 (16:28):
Oh. I don't know if the Bengals defense has solved anything,
but my I just I, in good conscience, I cannot
take until the Browns get over a twenty percent third
down conversion rate, which they haven't done all season long.
It is nineteen percent. It's up from eighteen percent last week. Great,
but until they consistently get can convert twenty I'm asking
for nothing. Twenty percent of your third downs. Huh huh,
(16:50):
I will give you a touchdown to the other team.
I just think that is that is not good. I
have not that is a decidedly un good. No, that's
terrible Nick Chubb. I guess when it comes twenty five
saved the day.
Speaker 1 (17:02):
I've been rooting Nick Chubb against this Browns team because
of the Shawn Watson for years. I feel bad for
their fans, and so this is I think a week
where we can celebrate something good happening for the Browns,
and that's going to be covering five and a half points.
Speaker 4 (17:15):
Be clear, the way that you navigate this for fantasy is, yes,
you're starting Nick Chubb number one, and yes you're starting
David and Joku that's number two, okay. And if you're
in playing a daily format and you're looking for like
a guy who could potentially have upside but has not
done anything so far this year, it'd be Jerry Judy.
So again, I don't I'm not saying for your for
your season long, it's only Nick Chubb, that is it,
(17:36):
But or maybe David in joke if you're like really
bad with a tight end. But if you're playing DFS
and you want some good contrarian contrarian value, Jerry Judy.
Speaker 2 (17:45):
I love this.
Speaker 1 (17:45):
Come for the picks, Come for the picks, Gay Navigation
for the DFS Fantasy.
Speaker 4 (17:51):
What do you love DFS and Fantasy Man.
Speaker 1 (17:52):
Well, we are not allowed to play DFS as employees,
but we can give advice.
Speaker 3 (17:56):
Cynthia again, I'm I'm not playing.
Speaker 4 (17:59):
I'm just saying what I would do if I were
allowed to play.
Speaker 2 (18:02):
I love it.
Speaker 1 (18:04):
If you want more of Cynthia's numbers lot has so
many numbers, like a billion. She has a model that
does everything possible. She has a YouTube.
Speaker 2 (18:17):
I don't know. You don't call it a YouTube page,
just a YouTube.
Speaker 1 (18:21):
Your YouTube page is called Numbers Game with Cynthia Friland
and the game show like long preview every week, picking
the primetime game separately to the Thursday night.
Speaker 2 (18:30):
It is good stuff. It is possible.
Speaker 4 (18:32):
Even this week's game, which was a very very like
I had to do a little extra digging to make
it exciting.
Speaker 1 (18:37):
Yes, she's working really hard on that. So people should
check out Numbers Game with Cynthia Freeland. Check us out
on game debut. We will be back on NFL Daily
on Sunday Night with Nick Shook and Patrick claybah I
went fourteen to o in my straight up picks last week.
Speaker 2 (18:52):
Fourteen to know.
Speaker 1 (18:53):
So when the picks are starting to be right, like
Cynthia and I, I can feel a hot streak coming.
Speaker 2 (18:58):
You know, football is back. We'll see us sudden
Welcome to another NFL Daily where we missed the hell
out of Cynthia Freeland.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Last week.
Speaker 3 (00:14):
We missed you.
Speaker 1 (00:15):
We needed her me, we got her in the studio. Yes,
I'm back in the Chris Wesley podcast studio with my
friend Cynthia Freeland.
Speaker 2 (00:24):
We missed you.
Speaker 1 (00:24):
Yeah, was in London last week. Neil Reynolds stepped in
and picked games for you. He didn't win a single game,
he went oh to three. But because we're professional, we
did get your picks. The listeners are going to just
have to trust us on this one that you went
to and one great on your pick.
Speaker 2 (00:40):
Sel.
Speaker 4 (00:40):
I mean, listen, we can show them the email proof.
It's not like it's not there.
Speaker 1 (00:44):
Yes, it is absolutely true. You had Washington wrong last week.
But you got that half a freaking point. Yes, but
you got the Texans covering easily and the Bears covering easily.
When I saw your Bears pick, I was like, why
didn't I take the Bears? I felt so strong about
that game there in London, and then it happened I
went too and one as well. I got the Lions
(01:04):
and the Steelers both covering comfortably and the Giants not
even coming very close. So two and one for me
gets me to eight and ten on the season. You're
nine and nine. My extra picks did poorly last week,
so I'm down to eleven and six and my extra
picks we do have a couple. Eleven and six is great,
still very good, but I went zero and three last week. Okay,
let's start well, I'll let you start every week. By
(01:26):
the way, if you're new to the show, both Cynthia
and I, two of the foremost prognosticators in the business,
picked three games against the spread.
Speaker 4 (01:35):
Okay, for my first pick this week, I would like
to go with Listen, I'm i woof this one's gonna
be spicy, but I'm going with the Jets plus one
and a half. Okay, I think the Jets went out right,
So if you're gonna also give me another point and
a half, I will take it.
Speaker 2 (01:57):
I have the Jets winning this game as well.
Speaker 1 (01:59):
On our show debut, which, by the way, people could
they can dvyards on early Friday mornings on Sunday.
Speaker 2 (02:04):
Morning early if you're on late night specific Saturday, Yeah,
it's very early. What do you like?
Speaker 1 (02:09):
Does your model put a DeVante trade into the mix
and how much does that change anything. Does it put
Russell Wilson into the mix? Does that change anything there?
Speaker 4 (02:21):
You know, the Russell Wilson thing just added more passes
with actually added more volatility because the Jets defense is
very good. And then if you look on the other side,
Davante Adams has been the reliable option for Aaron Rodgers
on quick passes basically for ever since they were together, right, So,
I don't know, it kind of bolstered the Jets odds
no matter what. And I think the line moved half
(02:41):
a point with Davante and I'm like, fine, I.
Speaker 2 (02:43):
Don't care, but you moved at another a point or something.
Speaker 4 (02:47):
Yeah, I went over and above, Yes, whatever the movement was.
Speaker 1 (02:50):
Yes, you have them. When I like that, I agree
with you. But that's not going to be one of
my three picks I'm going to make. I'm going to
continue to make the mistake of picking the Patriots it
to cover the spread.
Speaker 3 (03:01):
I have it too.
Speaker 2 (03:02):
Five and a half is okay?
Speaker 1 (03:04):
Yeah, Like, you got to have a code as someone
that's picking games, and one of my codes, one of
my ways I would I do this would be some
teams just aren't worthy of being heavy favorites and the
Jaguars are one of those teams like you can put
any NFL team out there against the Jaguars. I do
not think they should be a five and a half
(03:25):
point favorite in any scenario whatsoever, and this is that scenario.
It's a neutral field game, you could say JAG's home game,
but it's not gonna really matter. I'm sure the Patriots
fans will actually travel pretty well and it'll be even,
but it'll be mostly just people enjoying the game.
Speaker 2 (03:40):
It'd be fun atmosphere. They're at Wimbley.
Speaker 1 (03:42):
So giving the Jaguars five and a half points after
a week where I think Olie Connelly on our recap
show said it well, watching the sidelines, He's never seen
a more disconnected team emotionally in his life, and now
they got to go spend a whole week together in London.
Everyone's miserable. People think the head coach is gonna get
fired just sight unseen. I kind of almost like the
(04:03):
Patriots straight up. I'm not ready to go there because
the last thing I did before I came in to
the studio today was watch Patriots Texans and it was
a reminder this is a bottom five defense. Trevor Lawrence
has actually played pretty well the last couple of weeks.
They're just more talented than the Patriots when their offense
is on the field against a pretty poor Patriots defense.
There they're not beginning coach very well, so that maybe
(04:26):
the Jaguars win this game. But five and a half points.
With Drake may making some plays last week that was
he is very volatile, so it could go really well
and he probably could have some negative plays. But this
this Jag secondary hasn't made any plays all year.
Speaker 4 (04:39):
I mean, Andre Cisco had like the one good play
and then there was allegations that he said their team quit.
Speaker 3 (04:44):
So yes, I don't know what's true or not.
Speaker 4 (04:46):
I just know that it looks like a mess and
that weird hockey line and subbing in thing that the
Jags are doing up.
Speaker 3 (04:52):
Front watch their defensive front.
Speaker 4 (04:53):
Yes, they like do hockey line substitutions like you know,
like up first first line, second light like it's it's wild.
I've never seen you ually see one or two players
kind of on certain downs coming out and not like
they're they're like summing out five layers.
Speaker 1 (05:05):
Well, that's the one part of the game that does
worry me a little. Bit Trayvon Walker has had some
good games. Josh heinz Allen is still there. Ark armsit's there.
So that matchup against the Patriots offensive line. But that's
one of the reasons why. Just as a little bonus
on our show game debut for my write this down
this week, I was like, Drake May over rushing yard
in total, so that was like twenty nine and a half.
That's not one of my picks here. I guess it's
(05:26):
an extra pick. I'm throwing that in the xtra pick
in the box because he's gonna when I think they're
telling Drake May. Essentially, if you don't see anything and
the rush comes quickly, like run dude, and he did it. Well,
run dude. He is athletic enough to do it. So
is that going to be one of your three pills?
Speaker 2 (05:41):
Okay? Huh Okay?
Speaker 4 (05:42):
My next one is Washington by seven and a half
points against Carolina.
Speaker 2 (05:46):
Okay, that that makes a lot of sense to me.
Explain why?
Speaker 3 (05:49):
Well what I mean?
Speaker 4 (05:51):
Number one, Listen, there's so many good things to like
about Jayden Daniels, but the one thing I want to
talk about on the other side of the game is
the fact that no Jonathan Allen now, and now that's
going to be difficult to overcome. But I actually have
seen their defense defending passes a little bit better in
recent weeks. I'm not gonna call them a good pass defense.
(06:11):
I'm not gonna say that they're not going to give
up a deep play. I'm not gonna say that if
Deontay Johnson plays, he's not gonna get the hands, none
of that.
Speaker 3 (06:17):
What I am going to say.
Speaker 4 (06:18):
Is that their ability to contain these chunk plays on
every single down is limited more than Jayden Daniel's ability
to create such things on the other side. So I
think seven and a half, I have them an eleven
point win. And you know, my pretty conservative. So if
my model seeing eleven points seven and a half is
like you know, the big gapes, yeah, I'm way more
(06:41):
conservative than most models.
Speaker 2 (06:43):
I like that.
Speaker 1 (06:43):
I agree with that one too, if I had to
pick that one. Andy Dalton's playing just well enough that
you could see him like scoring some late touchdowns and
make you sweat it. But that defense is just just terrible.
Jadavin Clowney is still out of practice. Deontay Johnson out
of practice the first couple of days of the week,
of his teammates said that he will play.
Speaker 2 (07:01):
Xavier Laget said, well.
Speaker 4 (07:03):
If Xavier Laget says it, it must be true.
Speaker 1 (07:06):
Xavier Legett also says he has if he scores two
touchdowns in this game, he has like a second part
of his horse galloping celebration.
Speaker 2 (07:14):
I don't know if you've been.
Speaker 4 (07:15):
Tracking, but there's a second part.
Speaker 1 (07:17):
He has, the second part that he's ready to unveil,
but he has to score two touchdowns.
Speaker 3 (07:21):
I'm so glad.
Speaker 2 (07:22):
Yeah, what you are saying is unlikely.
Speaker 1 (07:24):
Washington, that's your second pick minus seven and.
Speaker 2 (07:27):
And a half.
Speaker 3 (07:28):
Yep, don't forget that hook.
Speaker 1 (07:29):
I'm so I'm like on the fence of what my
next couple of picks are going to be. Let's go
with the one I feel better about. Okay, Seattle plus
three yep, this is more of a hunch. Byron Murphy
returns this week. I think he's really important for that defense. Yes,
they've been getting pushed around in the middle. If he's there,
he can make everyone around him better. I like the
(07:50):
extra rest factor. The Seahawks play on Thursday night. Falcons
off of a normal week like that. The Falcons are
also the the they can't keep getting away with this team,
you know what I mean, Like every week it's just like, okay, Falcons,
like they've won three in a row, the Seahawks have
lost three in a row. And when sometimes that happens
(08:13):
and I see two teams that I believe are pretty
close overall and talent and overall ability, I think, like this,
those streaks are gonna end. That's how it works out. Now,
that's not like a statistical way to really look at it,
but I do think Mike McDonald, their defensive coach, with
a few extra days to work on it, looks at
this Falcons offense, which is limited in the passing game,
(08:35):
Kirk Cousins every week he can't move. It's the play
actions not working. You're probably getting Tarrek wollenback for this
game too, for Seattle. So I like, okay, freaky, he
switched it. And I know the Falcons like rushing attack
has been getting a little better, so that worries me somewhat,
but I think Seattle can throw on them.
Speaker 2 (08:54):
I'm going to Seattle plus three, okay.
Speaker 3 (08:57):
I mean I like all that.
Speaker 4 (08:58):
One thing I really like in this game is a
dk Metcalf touchdown, who in large part because the go
route has been where he's been so great, and the
opportunity here I did see. By the way, it is
worth noting that Justin Simmons was on the injury report
for the Falcons. Should that be something that happens, then
we're gonna want to say, like, maybe look at the
numbers for Tyler Lockett or Jack Okay, Jigbud, make them
(09:21):
a little higher. But ultimately I think the go route
DK metcalf back on track with those games that are
like three, you know, one hundred plus. He had three
of those and touch out whatever, So I like a touchdown.
Speaker 1 (09:31):
I also like that he has been the main character
this week in Seattle, just in the media of everyone
talking about him coming off of a bad game and
why it didn't work out, and it's like he's not
being the squeaky wheel necessarily, but it's that same sort
of idea of they want to just.
Speaker 2 (09:45):
Get him back on track after being the main character.
Speaker 1 (09:48):
All right, give me your last pick, Cynthia Freelan, I
know this on fire got back to five hundred.
Speaker 2 (09:53):
Here, let's go.
Speaker 4 (09:54):
This one is going to be someone I know you
disagree with, so cause I think we need some dissension. Okay,
read too much and now I'm going to pick Houston
and I'm going to take a field goal. Thank you
very much at lambeau Field. I think that this is
an opportunity.
Speaker 3 (10:09):
Number one.
Speaker 4 (10:10):
A lot of Green Bay's wide receiving corps has ended
up on the injury report that is number one, including
Jayden Reid number two. Jordan Love splits when under pressure
versus not when under pressure. Our massive biggest erosion in
passer reading this year, like the most touchdowns passes, but
also like most interceptions. It is it is high risk
it biscuit whatever that remember.
Speaker 1 (10:30):
That was very no risk it no biscuit. Bruce Arians
believe it was.
Speaker 2 (10:34):
No.
Speaker 1 (10:34):
It was not the name of his book. The name
of his book was The Quarterback Whisper. And I read it,
but a lot of it, a lot of no risk
and no biscuit.
Speaker 4 (10:41):
Do you want to know a book I've read, Total
Access by Rich Eyes.
Speaker 2 (10:45):
That's the only one that's or just you just wanted
to brag.
Speaker 4 (10:48):
No. I somebody like told me that in order to
work with Rich I needed They were messing with me
and they were like, in order to work with Rich
you need to read his book.
Speaker 1 (10:56):
You know, that's really funny. I've read that book as well,
and I was not even told that. I you know,
I'm just I'm a completist. That was even before I
worked at NFL Network. I believe it's called a Journey
into the NFL's.
Speaker 2 (11:09):
Something like that.
Speaker 4 (11:09):
Yeah, and he had hair. Anyways, it was crazy. But
I'm back to Houston. Yeah, I think this number one
defense in terms of bringing the heat. They're the best
rush defense in the league, and they back it up
with a passer rating allowed being the lowest when they
get pressure on quarterbacks. So in my estimation here, especially
with Joe Mixon back in the fold, when they have
(11:31):
that extra fold in the run game, even without Nico Collins,
I would like it better if Nico were playing, but
we don't have that option. This is an opportunity for
Houston to kind of take that step forward.
Speaker 1 (11:41):
You're the third smart person I've heard make this pick
in the last hour or two.
Speaker 4 (11:46):
Well, I mean I feel like it you might have been.
It might have been we were in the meeting together.
Speaker 2 (11:50):
Yeah, not even counting that meeting.
Speaker 1 (11:52):
I'm like, I was listening to a podcast to you,
like Green Bay minus three was going to be one
of my picks.
Speaker 2 (11:58):
We were going to go head to head, but go ahead.
Speaker 1 (12:01):
I already was leaning towards jumping off of it, partly
because I just enjoy watching CJ.
Speaker 2 (12:07):
Stroud so much.
Speaker 1 (12:08):
I think he's the best quarterback in the league in
the pocket right now, and it's so hard to pick
against him that, even though I do believe Green Bay
will win and cover the three, to make it one
of my top three picks, feels a little rich.
Speaker 2 (12:23):
Now.
Speaker 1 (12:23):
They are missing a lot of defensive starters. Houston potentially,
Jimmy Ward not expected to play, Kamari Lassiter I think
is not expected to play. A couple of the linebackers
are maybe's.
Speaker 2 (12:34):
I don't know.
Speaker 1 (12:34):
This may be factor makes it. It is tricky, but it
is tricky. We don't know for sure. So you're gonna
move me off of that pick. I am going to
put it in my extra picks. Yeah, put in the box.
It's there, great, don't put it in the box. The
box is good.
Speaker 2 (12:48):
Okay.
Speaker 1 (12:48):
So, going back to what I was saying about, the
Jaguars don't deserve to be five and a half point
favorites over anyone. I don't think the Rams deserve to
be touchdown over anyone. I know the Raiders are bad,
but the Raiders, like every other week, have this performance
where it's like, oh, like we really we really stunk
last week. And Antonio Pierce laid into is that we're
(13:09):
gonna play hard and we're gonna be better on defense
than you think. And I don't necessarily think they're gonna
win this game. I would certainly pick the Rams, who
are maybe getting Cooper Cup back, it's looking positive for
that they're coming off a bye, but they're a one
win team getting a touchdown at home, and there's no
home field advantage in particular when you're playing the Raiders
in Los Angeles. Not that that's like informing my decision
(13:30):
too much, it's well.
Speaker 3 (13:31):
Not for the Raiders, for the Raiders's kind of like that's.
Speaker 1 (13:33):
What I that's what I mean like, But I just
I don't think their defense is going to be this
bad all season long. Sean McVay and the Rams have
just dealing with so many different issues. They've They've changed
their secondary up, their linebackers are still very vulnerable. The
Raiders are one of the worst teams in the league,
but I just feel like a one win Rams team
(13:54):
does not deserve to be favored by a touchdown over anyone.
Speaker 4 (13:57):
I mean I have them at a touchdowns, So I'm
kind of like.
Speaker 2 (14:01):
Okay, are on the fence or whatever? All right? That
that is my third pick. I'm gonna take the Raider.
Speaker 1 (14:05):
I'm gonna be bold because i feel like when I've
not been bold in this segment, what's happened is I've
taken all my bold picks and I've put them over
in the in the box, which are my extra picks,
and those extra picks have been better the box.
Speaker 3 (14:19):
So be spicy on the show, be boring in the box.
Speaker 2 (14:22):
Okay.
Speaker 1 (14:23):
So to review our picks, your picks are Washington minus
seven and a half.
Speaker 2 (14:27):
Yep. You have the Jets winning over the Steelers. Yep.
Speaker 3 (14:30):
But I get one and a half points in case.
Speaker 1 (14:32):
Yeah, it's been it's been moving around there. You get
one and a half. Houston is a three point underdog
in Green Bay. So those are Cynthia's picks. I'm taking
the Pats getting five and a half in London, taking
the Seahawks getting three in Atlanta, and taking the Vegas
Raiders getting a touchdown in Los Angeles. So I'm taking
(14:54):
three underdogs this week, and then just because I like
to have a little fun, I like it, I give
people some extra picks. We have it Ravens minus four.
This is just like I feel like taking the Ravens
every week at this point, unless they just like proved
me wrong. This Buccaneers defense has a lot of issues.
I know you disagree with this one though you had
the Ravens only by one in.
Speaker 4 (15:14):
This It depends on what happens with like if Mike
Evans isn't playing, things shift.
Speaker 2 (15:19):
So I don't know this good.
Speaker 4 (15:21):
This one I don't feel great about, like as I
don't know when you get on the injury report like
after Wednesday, any you went on the Andrew report on Thursday.
Speaker 3 (15:28):
Like that doesn't feel good.
Speaker 2 (15:29):
That's it so good. It's a tricky one.
Speaker 1 (15:31):
This offense is just so good that I have a
hard time seeing Tampa Bay keeping up.
Speaker 2 (15:37):
I have the Packers minus three.
Speaker 1 (15:39):
I gave all the reasons already there, and then I'm
going Brown's plus five and a half. I had them
written down last week, and then I crossed them out
because I just I even said it on the podcast,
so it didn't count. I was like, I just can't
in good conscience pick a team yep, run by Deshaun Watson.
But even though I really liked them getting nine points
in Philadelphia, and you know what they did cover and
(16:00):
they get Nick Chubb back, So I look at it
like I'm not picking at Deshaun Watson team.
Speaker 2 (16:05):
I'm picking a Nick Chubb team.
Speaker 1 (16:06):
And this is a division matchup, which the Browns have
done very well in the Zach Taylor era. They've traditionally
beaten Zach Taylor's teams, especially in Cleveland. Not that that's
a huge deal, but I do think division matchups maybe
make mismatches closer. And I'm just not really all in
on like this Bengals defense has solved everything.
Speaker 2 (16:26):
So give me five and a half points, I'll take
the Browns.
Speaker 4 (16:28):
Oh. I don't know if the Bengals defense has solved anything,
but my I just I, in good conscience, I cannot
take until the Browns get over a twenty percent third
down conversion rate, which they haven't done all season long.
It is nineteen percent. It's up from eighteen percent last week. Great,
but until they consistently get can convert twenty I'm asking
for nothing. Twenty percent of your third downs. Huh huh,
(16:50):
I will give you a touchdown to the other team.
I just think that is that is not good. I
have not that is a decidedly un good. No, that's
terrible Nick Chubb. I guess when it comes twenty five
saved the day.
Speaker 1 (17:02):
I've been rooting Nick Chubb against this Browns team because
of the Shawn Watson for years. I feel bad for
their fans, and so this is I think a week
where we can celebrate something good happening for the Browns,
and that's going to be covering five and a half points.
Speaker 4 (17:15):
Be clear, the way that you navigate this for fantasy is, yes,
you're starting Nick Chubb number one, and yes you're starting
David and Joku that's number two, okay. And if you're
in playing a daily format and you're looking for like
a guy who could potentially have upside but has not
done anything so far this year, it'd be Jerry Judy.
So again, I don't I'm not saying for your for
your season long, it's only Nick Chubb, that is it,
(17:36):
But or maybe David in joke if you're like really
bad with a tight end. But if you're playing DFS
and you want some good contrarian contrarian value, Jerry Judy.
Speaker 2 (17:45):
I love this.
Speaker 1 (17:45):
Come for the picks, Come for the picks, Gay Navigation
for the DFS Fantasy.
Speaker 4 (17:51):
What do you love DFS and Fantasy Man.
Speaker 1 (17:52):
Well, we are not allowed to play DFS as employees,
but we can give advice.
Speaker 3 (17:56):
Cynthia again, I'm I'm not playing.
Speaker 4 (17:59):
I'm just saying what I would do if I were
allowed to play.
Speaker 2 (18:02):
I love it.
Speaker 1 (18:04):
If you want more of Cynthia's numbers lot has so
many numbers, like a billion. She has a model that
does everything possible. She has a YouTube.
Speaker 2 (18:17):
I don't know. You don't call it a YouTube page,
just a YouTube.
Speaker 1 (18:21):
Your YouTube page is called Numbers Game with Cynthia Friland
and the game show like long preview every week, picking
the primetime game separately to the Thursday night.
Speaker 2 (18:30):
It is good stuff. It is possible.
Speaker 4 (18:32):
Even this week's game, which was a very very like
I had to do a little extra digging to make
it exciting.
Speaker 1 (18:37):
Yes, she's working really hard on that. So people should
check out Numbers Game with Cynthia Freeland. Check us out
on game debut. We will be back on NFL Daily
on Sunday Night with Nick Shook and Patrick claybah I
went fourteen to o in my straight up picks last week.
Speaker 2 (18:52):
Fourteen to know.
Speaker 1 (18:53):
So when the picks are starting to be right, like
Cynthia and I, I can feel a hot streak coming.
Speaker 2 (18:58):
You know, football is back. We'll see us sudden
Host
Gregg Rosenthal
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