November 1, 2024 • 17 mins
Gregg and Cynthia Frelund are back for another week of Man vs Model head-to-head pick battle. Our duo dive right into their week 9 picks. First, Gregg and Cynthia join forces to give us their first pick for Cowboys at Falcons (1:54). Cynthia then gives us her second pick with Dolphins at Bills (3:49). Next, Gregg gives us his second pick, Commanders at Giants (5:50). Then, we hear Gregg and Cynthia's third and final picks, Colts at Vikings (8:58) and Broncos at Ravens (12:38).
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to NFL Daily, where we never leave the pocket
because we had no mobility. We're like kurkoa Chains. I'm
here in the Chris Wesley podcast studio for our week
nine picks. It's Cynthia Freeland. Time of the week. Let's go.
Speaker 2 (00:22):
Why would we ever leave the pocket?
Speaker 1 (00:24):
No, we're having so much success inside the pocket. That's
a little tease to maybe one of my picks a
little later. But this is the part of the show
where we talk about our picks from last week. We
both went one and two, so we're just gonna move
past that for the season. If you check us out
on YouTube, you can see the fancy graphics. Cynthia is
one game up on me. She's five hundred one back.
(00:45):
You know what things. I actually looked at our record
against the spread of the off season on game debut,
and it's much better. We're both well over five hundred
picking every single game when we're so that just means
that our time is coming and that we're gonna have
some great picks. Because the picks for this show I
feel good about. This week. You're going to start us
off three picks against the spread, go back and forth.
Speaker 3 (01:07):
Listen, you are one heck of a segue artist with
that intro, because I'm going to go with Atlanta. Oh
thank Atlanta wins by at least two and a half,
so three points. At least I have five points. I'm
a conservative modeler, so ultimately that's a pretty big win,
in part because this Dallas defense cannot stop any yak yaka.
Speaker 1 (01:26):
Or ya co.
Speaker 3 (01:27):
Remember the yards of the catcher yards after contact you go.
Both are a huge problem. So John Robinson, welcome to
my lineup. I'm obviously he was there to begin with,
but massive day for him.
Speaker 1 (01:39):
For me, I love that let's just join forces. We
haven't done that a lot on this show. But Atlanta
minus two and a half minus three, whatever you find
for it, I'm feeling it. This is one of those
lines that I looked at and I don't have a model,
but it's almost like, oh, you're just begging us to
take the Falcons here. I get a little worried about that.
(01:59):
But I've been fading Atlanta all year, including last week.
I did a bad job at that, picking the Buccaneers
on our show game debut. I don't think I did
it here. No, you didn't do it here. I don't
know whatever, But here's the thing. They have a good
running game. YEP. At the beginning of the season, it
was like, can you marry up the shotgun the pistol
concepts of Kirk Cousins with the running game? When I
(02:21):
look at it, it doesn't look married up, and yet
it's very effective lately. So going up against Dallas, whether
they have Michael Parsons back or not. Fourth in overall
offensive efficiency and then this is a bad defense for
the Falcons. That's why I haven't been in on them all,
but I think this is a week that they can survive.
So I looked at the DVOA, So that's total efficiency.
(02:41):
I know there's different metrics, and I'm like, am I
crazy here? In total efficiency? Falcons are about thirteenth on
the season. The Cowboys are twenty six. Like, this is
not a good team. There's just been like a team
that Vegas hasn't given up on. And then finally they
broke out those Outcast sweats shirts this week. I don't
know if you saw that the Falcons Outcast collab. You're
(03:03):
not gonna lose. You're gonna have a lot of Outcast
sweatshirts this weekend.
Speaker 3 (03:06):
You cannot lose wearing that sweatshirt like it is like
like undefeated sweatshirt. And we haven't even seen them play
a game in it yet, but we know they're already
undefeated after having that collab.
Speaker 1 (03:16):
Yeah, and you look like you wanted to tell me
more about like the bad defense.
Speaker 2 (03:19):
Oh no, no, no, I just want to talk about this,
Like those are that.
Speaker 3 (03:22):
That's some good swag right there, Like whoever's doing that
partnership A plus good?
Speaker 1 (03:25):
Yeah, maybe they'll maybe they'll be at the stadium. And
so I'm feeling Atlanta minus three. We've got three four
units in this game, two pretty bad defenses, one pretty
bad offense, and one Falcons offense. I'm believing in the
Falcons offense, like at least all right, so we're we're
on that together. So we got through that quickly. What
is your second pick?
Speaker 3 (03:44):
Well, all right, for my second pick, I'm gonna go
the Buffalo Bills and six points, so they have to
cover at least a six point spread, they win by
at least a touchdown. The number six I enjoy because
seven and a half is a crappy number. Six is
a much more palatable number. This means the difference between
one possession or two possessions. So I'm looking at the
(04:05):
opportunity to beat Miami at home. They get Von Miller back,
they already have Greg Russo who's been bringing the heat. Obviously,
we know that they're gonna try to run the football.
Devin chan In three games have had three great games
against the Bills. However, getting that quick passing game going
and the rhythm back, I don't know if Buffalo is
the place that two was going to be able to
(04:25):
make that happen. And also last week we saw some
sort of like confusing data from their defense, which had
been playing pretty well, them being the Dolphins defense clearly
not the Bills defense, because they.
Speaker 2 (04:36):
Did really well in Seattle.
Speaker 3 (04:38):
But ultimately I don't know what to trust about this defense,
and I trust a lot more about what I've seen
from Josh Allen on the offense.
Speaker 1 (04:45):
Yeah, I think their toughness will be tested. We'll see
if Zach Seeler plays in this game. Who's a really
important part of that doin.
Speaker 3 (04:51):
Yeah, defense, but Jalen Ramsey has not been Jalen Ramsey.
Speaker 1 (04:54):
He hasn't given up something coverage and Buffalo can beat
you two different ways they can. They can just rind
you to dust like they did to the Seahawks. They
can obviously make big plays in the passing game. We
saw Kyler Murray outside the pocket doing that last week
inside the pocket as well. Josh Allen even better at that.
I'm with you. I'm now writing that down in my
little extra picks because Box is the Box is back.
Speaker 2 (05:15):
It's like a really honored yeah.
Speaker 1 (05:17):
Because I do feel that in my soul this matchup
has been so bad in the Mike McDaniel Sean McDermott era.
I don't really like going back to past years too much,
but when it's a specific coaching matchup and you've lost
five straight and week two with Tua out there, they
were up thirty one to ten before two have got
that injury. So I'm with you there. That's not gonna
be one of my top three picks though. And you
(05:38):
were right. I did not take the bucks on this
show last week. Okay, you have a good memory.
Speaker 3 (05:42):
I was pretty sure you didn't right two of those
shows together, so they kind of mixed together.
Speaker 1 (05:46):
My top pick. Let's hear it, Washington minus four on
the road, Now, I get it. I could see why
models might agree or disagree. I don't even know it
does years agree with me? Okay strongly that was one
of Okay, that was in feel free to take it.
As you're three, there's no rules. We could just we
could have a different one for my third fun. Yeah,
so I get it. Why it's only four. It's a
(06:06):
road team, it's a young team that you're still learning about.
It's a division matchup. When they first played Believe that
was week two, very close. The Giants actually felt like
they should have maybe won that game. But sometimes I
don't want to get too complicated. It's two teams head
in opposite direction. Washington has passed every test throughout this
(06:29):
the course of this season. I know they could have
lost last week, doesn't matter to me. They outplayed the Bears.
They look like a quality team. Two quality teams. It
comes down to the end, Washington won. These are not
two quality teams. Going back to overall deficient efficiency, Washington ninth,
Giants twenty fifth, not close special teams. Giants have been
terrible week after week after week, and special teams giving
(06:51):
up big returns, not making their kicks thirty first, Washington seventh.
Here's some more numbers since week four. This Washington defense,
which was supposed to be the weak side. That's a
pretty long sample now since week four. I'm including week
four that was the Arizona game. Second in EPA per
play allowed, fourth in total points allowed per game. They're
(07:13):
getting it done. Steve Weisch was in this studio and
saying how they've really simplified things. They're playing fast now
when they play better opponents. Do I think their defense
is going to be world beaters? No, like we saw
what happen against Baltimore. But this is not a world beater.
There's no home field advantage. Everyone's sick of Daniel Jones
in New York. They could be booinged by the middle
of the second quarter. There's nothing really to feel good about.
(07:35):
And so I could see it being close in the
middle of the third quarter, where it's still at the four,
it's at seven. But I really like Washington. I think
they're a real deal team, and I don't believe in
the Giants at all.
Speaker 2 (07:44):
Completely agree.
Speaker 3 (07:45):
I'm gonna give just because New York's had a hard
week and like b'rella people, even though maybe not LA fans,
like you know, I'm the Dodger, you know, whatever, so.
Speaker 1 (07:52):
I've jumped on board with the Dodge.
Speaker 2 (07:53):
I see Dexi's good. They're really good. They have most
sacks in the league.
Speaker 3 (07:57):
And Dexter, who when I want to meet him and
become friends with him, just so I could be like
my friend dex you know, like, I just feel like
that would be good.
Speaker 2 (08:05):
They've been good with that.
Speaker 3 (08:06):
And also on the other side, you know Bobby Wagner
in this defense, Like I understand he's not the youngest
cat on the block, but his ability on that Washington
defense to be that guy.
Speaker 2 (08:17):
The voice, the quarterback of the defense or whatever you want.
Speaker 3 (08:20):
To call it, but basically not miss tackles, their tackle
efficiency rate, meaning how they've stopped teams from getting Yaka yoko.
Speaker 2 (08:27):
To He just loves when he does that.
Speaker 3 (08:30):
But anyways, but yeah, like that's been a really big
that's been a really big difference maker for this Washington defense.
I'm totally on the same side as that good That
was one of mine for sure.
Speaker 1 (08:39):
I like it. And yeah, Tyrone Tracy, who had been
breaking a lot of tackles playing well for the Giants.
They have a good rookie class.
Speaker 2 (08:44):
But he might not be playing.
Speaker 1 (08:45):
He's probably not playing in this game coming off of
a concussion. So that's my second pick. We're both in
on Atlanta. I take Washington. You had the Bills. What
is your final pick?
Speaker 3 (08:55):
And in the Battle of Apolis's the one in Minneapolis
on sun I think there's a number five. If I
like the number six, I certainly like the number five.
So Minneapolis with five points, woo in Minneapolis against Indianapolis
to see who wins the Battle of the Apolis.
Speaker 1 (09:14):
Is I okay? I bet? I wonder if Colts fans
will travel. That's it's not too far to Minneapolis relatively.
It's nice not you drive to that. No, I guess
you have to like take a like a do okay,
explain why because I want to know why the model
you think likes the Vikings better. Because I got to
admit Indy plus five is on my little box list,
but it's not my third pick. But we were going
to go against each other on the.
Speaker 3 (09:34):
Oh, yeah, that's fine. We gotta go against each other
on one of them. Yeah, a couple of reasons. I
know Joe Flacco's starting, but when it comes to the
types of blitz that Brian Flores likes to execute. Last
week against the Rams, things were wonky at the end.
When we were doing anything we were doing for our shows,
we did not know that Cooper Cup was for sure playing,
and we certainly didn't know that Puku and Aaku was
(09:56):
playing until the ninety minutes prior. We didn't know, So
there was a lot lot of things that were different
and there they could have won that game. It's not
like it was such a huge butt kicking that it
was super convincing either way. So the types of blitz
is that Brian Flores likes to throw out there, they're
not as easy to execute as Michael Pittman's maybe not
playing that's not great. Is Josh Jowns fully healthy. I
(10:18):
know Jonathan Taylor is supposed to play in this game,
and their O line is good. However, the way that
that defense executes, it's just going to be very hard.
Even though Joe Flacker's Flacker, Joe Flacker.
Speaker 2 (10:28):
Is a much better thrower. Joe Flacco is a great thrower.
Speaker 1 (10:32):
Yeah, maybe you're maybe convincing me almost to cross out,
So I kind of get why. Like you look at
the numbers because they're over the course of the season
are maybe more meaningful than just the last two weeks.
But there is an eye test thing that Okay, quarterbacks
who can understand a little bit what Minnesota is doing,
attack the middle of the field, copy a little bit
(10:53):
what the last two offenses have done. Could Joe Flacco
do that? Throw into his tight ends? Throwing with this
play duchdowns he should. I know he's on the injury report,
but he finished last week's games. We'll see about when.
Speaker 3 (11:05):
You have two three guys that are potential pass catchers,
way different than when you have like one guy like hey.
Speaker 1 (11:11):
It's me, Yeah, that's fair. And Bernard Ryman is ryme
injury report with a concussion. The NFL has done a
bad job with these spotters like Bernard Ryman gave up
huge sacks at the end of last week's game. Then
he showed up the next day and he turns out
he was concussed playing through a concussion. That would be
a big loss for them against a good pass rush.
(11:32):
Five just felt a little rich for a game that
I don't know. I just kind of expect these Vikings
games to come down to the final possession, these Colts
games to come down to the final possession. You're maybe
pushing me off putting that in the box. I don't
know my third pick.
Speaker 3 (11:48):
Wait one thing with Christian Dara saw being gone, I
was worried. But they got Cam Robinson.
Speaker 1 (11:52):
That helps a lot. That helps a big time. Okay,
a big time. I feel like we need to be
on the same page here. Although I wanted the Colts
as my backup to my Baltimore minus nine pick, now
I don't like picking anything that could have an injury, repercussions.
And maybe by the time you guys hear this, the
Lamar Jackson thing will be taken care of. I'm just
gonna assume Lamar Jackson's playing when you finish on Sunday.
(12:14):
You're starting quarterback in the NFL. Almost certainly, this is
the guy who's played through a lot of things. You're
playing the next week. That said, he's misspracticed Wednesday and Thursday.
That's never a good sign. It's never a good sign
when John Harbaugh says it's a rest day, but then
he shows up on the injury port as a kneeback.
I don't care. He looked good last week. I actually
thought he played well against Cleveland. His offensive line didn't,
(12:35):
and that's a concern this week. And yet this is
one of those lines where I look at, Wow, nine points,
that's crazy against the Broncos, and they're almost begging you
to take the Broncos, and I'm not gonna do it.
This is maybe a spiteful pick. I'm not believing in
the Broncos. I believe they're fine. I believe they're like
eight and nine, but I don't think bo Knicks can
get it done against a good defense. Is this a
(12:57):
good defense statistically? No, but I do think it's a
great team overall, and great teams respond. That was a
division game last week, a matchup they've had some struggles
with against Cleveland. You're coming off a loss. You're one
of the very best teams in the entire NFL in
my mind, the Baltimore Ravens returning home, and so I
(13:18):
think this offense can make the Broncos blitz look very average,
run straight through them, be able to handle the Blitzz.
You got Deontay Johnson. That's another outside receiver. We'll see
how big of a factor he is. But ultimately I'm
looking at as like an eight or nine win team
on the road against one of the best teams in
(13:38):
the NFL who's absolutely ready to bounce back from last week,
So I say nine points is not enough. Bo Nicks
make some mistakes, has a couple turnovers in this game,
and they end up walking away with it. Maybe it's
not like a twenty point win, but it's thirty to sixteen.
They cover the nine. Let's go Ravens.
Speaker 3 (13:56):
You know what's wild is the rookie quarterback who scored
the most offensive touchdowns this year is Bonux not Jane
de I mean, I just thought that stat was wild.
And I just want to know how you feel about
my two preseason win total picks, because I feel like
this is I'm pretty happy about these. Yes, my NFC
pick for who was going to exceed their expectations was
(14:17):
the Seattle Seahawks, who was at who were at six
and a half.
Speaker 2 (14:20):
How are we feeling about that?
Speaker 1 (14:21):
That's fit? That's looking And how about.
Speaker 3 (14:23):
Them Broncos five and a half baby five and a
half wins?
Speaker 2 (14:27):
Are you kidding me?
Speaker 1 (14:28):
Are you? Yeah?
Speaker 2 (14:29):
Am I happy about that?
Speaker 1 (14:30):
Yeah?
Speaker 2 (14:30):
You're right? Am I tooting my own heart?
Speaker 1 (14:32):
Be shp? You should? That's if you can cash like
an over under win total.
Speaker 4 (14:37):
Before Thanksgiving, well before Thanksgiving, maybe maybe he can catch
it on Sunday if I'm just gonna eat good if
I'm very very wrong, Okay, so I'm going Baltimore minus
nine as my third pick on the off chance that
Lamar Jackson doesn't play. Just that, but backup for housekeeping purposes,
I'll just go with your Bills pick as my third, Okay,
(15:00):
And that is it. And yes, every week I have
a little box of extra picks. They've done pretty well
over the course of the season, all though.
Speaker 3 (15:06):
The box was the box came out of the gates
on fire.
Speaker 1 (15:09):
On fire, and they get on some water lately. But
I'm gonna stick with my Flacco plus five. I like
the Bills, as I mentioned, as kind of my backup there,
I get totally out of the Ravens business. If Lamar
is not playing, forget that game for just stay away.
And then the other one I kind of like this
week was Cincinnati minus nine as long as t Higgins.
(15:30):
You know te Higgins actually, I think makes a big
difference to me, and we're not sure about his status.
But I think they are a good team that absolutely
needs to win. I'm not giving up on them. The
Raiders have a defense that I won't be able to
stop them. Through the air or on the ground. I
actually think Chase Brown could get it going this week.
Speaker 3 (15:46):
So I think it's I think this is a wild
one where the Raiders have two different identities. There's the
good Raiders that can somehow upset the Ravens, and then
there's the not good Raiders and those are the ones
that are like, what am I even watching here?
Speaker 1 (16:00):
Right?
Speaker 3 (16:00):
So I'm just curious which one is going to show
up because my only kind of hmm, what are my
little clues here? Well, Roberts Bulaine has played this Bengals.
Speaker 2 (16:10):
Team quite a bit.
Speaker 3 (16:11):
He was a Steeler front okay, and Max Crosby. His
pressure rate is low for his season total. Usually he
didn't really wouldn't really make a lot of noise last week.
Speaker 2 (16:21):
So my I mean, I'm just saying for the number.
Speaker 3 (16:23):
I'm not saying for the win, just out of cure,
Like I don't know, So I don't know that it's
just which identity is coming, Yeah, the one that Antonio
Pierce like feels like is the one that takes on
the identity of their coach.
Speaker 1 (16:34):
Coming or is like it's like when they can get
up for games and Gardner Minshew plays well that's two
different things. They got up for that Chiefs game. They
played well, you know they covered, they didn't. They didn't
end up winning that game. Gardner Minshew played well. I
don't know if you can expect that two straight weeks.
So I like Cincinnati minus seven, but I like him
a lot better if t Higgins is that's right, playing
two review. We are both in on the Falcons. I
(16:55):
have Gobert Anders and the Ravens. You have the Bill
and your final pick was I forgot Minnesota. Minnesota. That's
right where we're going against each other. Thank you, Cynthia Freeland.
Check out Numbers Game on YouTube each and every week.
Check out this show on YouTube each and every week.
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(17:16):
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(17:43):
mean football is really back. It's never been more back.
Welcome to NFL Daily, where we never leave the pocket
because we had no mobility. We're like kurkoa Chains. I'm
here in the Chris Wesley podcast studio for our week
nine picks. It's Cynthia Freeland. Time of the week. Let's go.
Speaker 2 (00:22):
Why would we ever leave the pocket?
Speaker 1 (00:24):
No, we're having so much success inside the pocket. That's
a little tease to maybe one of my picks a
little later. But this is the part of the show
where we talk about our picks from last week. We
both went one and two, so we're just gonna move
past that for the season. If you check us out
on YouTube, you can see the fancy graphics. Cynthia is
one game up on me. She's five hundred one back.
(00:45):
You know what things. I actually looked at our record
against the spread of the off season on game debut,
and it's much better. We're both well over five hundred
picking every single game when we're so that just means
that our time is coming and that we're gonna have
some great picks. Because the picks for this show I
feel good about. This week. You're going to start us
off three picks against the spread, go back and forth.
Speaker 3 (01:07):
Listen, you are one heck of a segue artist with
that intro, because I'm going to go with Atlanta. Oh
thank Atlanta wins by at least two and a half,
so three points. At least I have five points. I'm
a conservative modeler, so ultimately that's a pretty big win,
in part because this Dallas defense cannot stop any yak yaka.
Speaker 1 (01:26):
Or ya co.
Speaker 3 (01:27):
Remember the yards of the catcher yards after contact you go.
Both are a huge problem. So John Robinson, welcome to
my lineup. I'm obviously he was there to begin with,
but massive day for him.
Speaker 1 (01:39):
For me, I love that let's just join forces. We
haven't done that a lot on this show. But Atlanta
minus two and a half minus three, whatever you find
for it, I'm feeling it. This is one of those
lines that I looked at and I don't have a model,
but it's almost like, oh, you're just begging us to
take the Falcons here. I get a little worried about that.
(01:59):
But I've been fading Atlanta all year, including last week.
I did a bad job at that, picking the Buccaneers
on our show game debut. I don't think I did
it here. No, you didn't do it here. I don't
know whatever, But here's the thing. They have a good
running game. YEP. At the beginning of the season, it
was like, can you marry up the shotgun the pistol
concepts of Kirk Cousins with the running game? When I
(02:21):
look at it, it doesn't look married up, and yet
it's very effective lately. So going up against Dallas, whether
they have Michael Parsons back or not. Fourth in overall
offensive efficiency and then this is a bad defense for
the Falcons. That's why I haven't been in on them all,
but I think this is a week that they can survive.
So I looked at the DVOA, So that's total efficiency.
(02:41):
I know there's different metrics, and I'm like, am I
crazy here? In total efficiency? Falcons are about thirteenth on
the season. The Cowboys are twenty six. Like, this is
not a good team. There's just been like a team
that Vegas hasn't given up on. And then finally they
broke out those Outcast sweats shirts this week. I don't
know if you saw that the Falcons Outcast collab. You're
(03:03):
not gonna lose. You're gonna have a lot of Outcast
sweatshirts this weekend.
Speaker 3 (03:06):
You cannot lose wearing that sweatshirt like it is like
like undefeated sweatshirt. And we haven't even seen them play
a game in it yet, but we know they're already
undefeated after having that collab.
Speaker 1 (03:16):
Yeah, and you look like you wanted to tell me
more about like the bad defense.
Speaker 2 (03:19):
Oh no, no, no, I just want to talk about this,
Like those are that.
Speaker 3 (03:22):
That's some good swag right there, Like whoever's doing that
partnership A plus good?
Speaker 1 (03:25):
Yeah, maybe they'll maybe they'll be at the stadium. And
so I'm feeling Atlanta minus three. We've got three four
units in this game, two pretty bad defenses, one pretty
bad offense, and one Falcons offense. I'm believing in the
Falcons offense, like at least all right, so we're we're
on that together. So we got through that quickly. What
is your second pick?
Speaker 3 (03:44):
Well, all right, for my second pick, I'm gonna go
the Buffalo Bills and six points, so they have to
cover at least a six point spread, they win by
at least a touchdown. The number six I enjoy because
seven and a half is a crappy number. Six is
a much more palatable number. This means the difference between
one possession or two possessions. So I'm looking at the
(04:05):
opportunity to beat Miami at home. They get Von Miller back,
they already have Greg Russo who's been bringing the heat. Obviously,
we know that they're gonna try to run the football.
Devin chan In three games have had three great games
against the Bills. However, getting that quick passing game going
and the rhythm back, I don't know if Buffalo is
the place that two was going to be able to
(04:25):
make that happen. And also last week we saw some
sort of like confusing data from their defense, which had
been playing pretty well, them being the Dolphins defense clearly
not the Bills defense, because they.
Speaker 2 (04:36):
Did really well in Seattle.
Speaker 3 (04:38):
But ultimately I don't know what to trust about this defense,
and I trust a lot more about what I've seen
from Josh Allen on the offense.
Speaker 1 (04:45):
Yeah, I think their toughness will be tested. We'll see
if Zach Seeler plays in this game. Who's a really
important part of that doin.
Speaker 3 (04:51):
Yeah, defense, but Jalen Ramsey has not been Jalen Ramsey.
Speaker 1 (04:54):
He hasn't given up something coverage and Buffalo can beat
you two different ways they can. They can just rind
you to dust like they did to the Seahawks. They
can obviously make big plays in the passing game. We
saw Kyler Murray outside the pocket doing that last week
inside the pocket as well. Josh Allen even better at that.
I'm with you. I'm now writing that down in my
little extra picks because Box is the Box is back.
Speaker 2 (05:15):
It's like a really honored yeah.
Speaker 1 (05:17):
Because I do feel that in my soul this matchup
has been so bad in the Mike McDaniel Sean McDermott era.
I don't really like going back to past years too much,
but when it's a specific coaching matchup and you've lost
five straight and week two with Tua out there, they
were up thirty one to ten before two have got
that injury. So I'm with you there. That's not gonna
be one of my top three picks though. And you
(05:38):
were right. I did not take the bucks on this
show last week. Okay, you have a good memory.
Speaker 3 (05:42):
I was pretty sure you didn't right two of those
shows together, so they kind of mixed together.
Speaker 1 (05:46):
My top pick. Let's hear it, Washington minus four on
the road, Now, I get it. I could see why
models might agree or disagree. I don't even know it
does years agree with me? Okay strongly that was one
of Okay, that was in feel free to take it.
As you're three, there's no rules. We could just we
could have a different one for my third fun. Yeah,
so I get it. Why it's only four. It's a
(06:06):
road team, it's a young team that you're still learning about.
It's a division matchup. When they first played Believe that
was week two, very close. The Giants actually felt like
they should have maybe won that game. But sometimes I
don't want to get too complicated. It's two teams head
in opposite direction. Washington has passed every test throughout this
(06:29):
the course of this season. I know they could have
lost last week, doesn't matter to me. They outplayed the Bears.
They look like a quality team. Two quality teams. It
comes down to the end, Washington won. These are not
two quality teams. Going back to overall deficient efficiency, Washington ninth,
Giants twenty fifth, not close special teams. Giants have been
terrible week after week after week, and special teams giving
(06:51):
up big returns, not making their kicks thirty first, Washington seventh.
Here's some more numbers since week four. This Washington defense,
which was supposed to be the weak side. That's a
pretty long sample now since week four. I'm including week
four that was the Arizona game. Second in EPA per
play allowed, fourth in total points allowed per game. They're
(07:13):
getting it done. Steve Weisch was in this studio and
saying how they've really simplified things. They're playing fast now
when they play better opponents. Do I think their defense
is going to be world beaters? No, like we saw
what happen against Baltimore. But this is not a world beater.
There's no home field advantage. Everyone's sick of Daniel Jones
in New York. They could be booinged by the middle
of the second quarter. There's nothing really to feel good about.
(07:35):
And so I could see it being close in the
middle of the third quarter, where it's still at the four,
it's at seven. But I really like Washington. I think
they're a real deal team, and I don't believe in
the Giants at all.
Speaker 2 (07:44):
Completely agree.
Speaker 3 (07:45):
I'm gonna give just because New York's had a hard
week and like b'rella people, even though maybe not LA fans,
like you know, I'm the Dodger, you know, whatever, so.
Speaker 1 (07:52):
I've jumped on board with the Dodge.
Speaker 2 (07:53):
I see Dexi's good. They're really good. They have most
sacks in the league.
Speaker 3 (07:57):
And Dexter, who when I want to meet him and
become friends with him, just so I could be like
my friend dex you know, like, I just feel like
that would be good.
Speaker 2 (08:05):
They've been good with that.
Speaker 3 (08:06):
And also on the other side, you know Bobby Wagner
in this defense, Like I understand he's not the youngest
cat on the block, but his ability on that Washington
defense to be that guy.
Speaker 2 (08:17):
The voice, the quarterback of the defense or whatever you want.
Speaker 3 (08:20):
To call it, but basically not miss tackles, their tackle
efficiency rate, meaning how they've stopped teams from getting Yaka yoko.
Speaker 2 (08:27):
To He just loves when he does that.
Speaker 3 (08:30):
But anyways, but yeah, like that's been a really big
that's been a really big difference maker for this Washington defense.
I'm totally on the same side as that good That
was one of mine for sure.
Speaker 1 (08:39):
I like it. And yeah, Tyrone Tracy, who had been
breaking a lot of tackles playing well for the Giants.
They have a good rookie class.
Speaker 2 (08:44):
But he might not be playing.
Speaker 1 (08:45):
He's probably not playing in this game coming off of
a concussion. So that's my second pick. We're both in
on Atlanta. I take Washington. You had the Bills. What
is your final pick?
Speaker 3 (08:55):
And in the Battle of Apolis's the one in Minneapolis
on sun I think there's a number five. If I
like the number six, I certainly like the number five.
So Minneapolis with five points, woo in Minneapolis against Indianapolis
to see who wins the Battle of the Apolis.
Speaker 1 (09:14):
Is I okay? I bet? I wonder if Colts fans
will travel. That's it's not too far to Minneapolis relatively.
It's nice not you drive to that. No, I guess
you have to like take a like a do okay,
explain why because I want to know why the model
you think likes the Vikings better. Because I got to
admit Indy plus five is on my little box list,
but it's not my third pick. But we were going
to go against each other on the.
Speaker 3 (09:34):
Oh, yeah, that's fine. We gotta go against each other
on one of them. Yeah, a couple of reasons. I
know Joe Flacco's starting, but when it comes to the
types of blitz that Brian Flores likes to execute. Last
week against the Rams, things were wonky at the end.
When we were doing anything we were doing for our shows,
we did not know that Cooper Cup was for sure playing,
and we certainly didn't know that Puku and Aaku was
(09:56):
playing until the ninety minutes prior. We didn't know, So
there was a lot lot of things that were different
and there they could have won that game. It's not
like it was such a huge butt kicking that it
was super convincing either way. So the types of blitz
is that Brian Flores likes to throw out there, they're
not as easy to execute as Michael Pittman's maybe not
playing that's not great. Is Josh Jowns fully healthy. I
(10:18):
know Jonathan Taylor is supposed to play in this game,
and their O line is good. However, the way that
that defense executes, it's just going to be very hard.
Even though Joe Flacker's Flacker, Joe Flacker.
Speaker 2 (10:28):
Is a much better thrower. Joe Flacco is a great thrower.
Speaker 1 (10:32):
Yeah, maybe you're maybe convincing me almost to cross out,
So I kind of get why. Like you look at
the numbers because they're over the course of the season
are maybe more meaningful than just the last two weeks.
But there is an eye test thing that Okay, quarterbacks
who can understand a little bit what Minnesota is doing,
attack the middle of the field, copy a little bit
(10:53):
what the last two offenses have done. Could Joe Flacco
do that? Throw into his tight ends? Throwing with this
play duchdowns he should. I know he's on the injury report,
but he finished last week's games. We'll see about when.
Speaker 3 (11:05):
You have two three guys that are potential pass catchers,
way different than when you have like one guy like hey.
Speaker 1 (11:11):
It's me, Yeah, that's fair. And Bernard Ryman is ryme
injury report with a concussion. The NFL has done a
bad job with these spotters like Bernard Ryman gave up
huge sacks at the end of last week's game. Then
he showed up the next day and he turns out
he was concussed playing through a concussion. That would be
a big loss for them against a good pass rush.
(11:32):
Five just felt a little rich for a game that
I don't know. I just kind of expect these Vikings
games to come down to the final possession, these Colts
games to come down to the final possession. You're maybe
pushing me off putting that in the box. I don't
know my third pick.
Speaker 3 (11:48):
Wait one thing with Christian Dara saw being gone, I
was worried. But they got Cam Robinson.
Speaker 1 (11:52):
That helps a lot. That helps a big time. Okay,
a big time. I feel like we need to be
on the same page here. Although I wanted the Colts
as my backup to my Baltimore minus nine pick, now
I don't like picking anything that could have an injury, repercussions.
And maybe by the time you guys hear this, the
Lamar Jackson thing will be taken care of. I'm just
gonna assume Lamar Jackson's playing when you finish on Sunday.
(12:14):
You're starting quarterback in the NFL. Almost certainly, this is
the guy who's played through a lot of things. You're
playing the next week. That said, he's misspracticed Wednesday and Thursday.
That's never a good sign. It's never a good sign
when John Harbaugh says it's a rest day, but then
he shows up on the injury port as a kneeback.
I don't care. He looked good last week. I actually
thought he played well against Cleveland. His offensive line didn't,
(12:35):
and that's a concern this week. And yet this is
one of those lines where I look at, Wow, nine points,
that's crazy against the Broncos, and they're almost begging you
to take the Broncos, and I'm not gonna do it.
This is maybe a spiteful pick. I'm not believing in
the Broncos. I believe they're fine. I believe they're like
eight and nine, but I don't think bo Knicks can
get it done against a good defense. Is this a
(12:57):
good defense statistically? No, but I do think it's a
great team overall, and great teams respond. That was a
division game last week, a matchup they've had some struggles
with against Cleveland. You're coming off a loss. You're one
of the very best teams in the entire NFL in
my mind, the Baltimore Ravens returning home, and so I
(13:18):
think this offense can make the Broncos blitz look very average,
run straight through them, be able to handle the Blitzz.
You got Deontay Johnson. That's another outside receiver. We'll see
how big of a factor he is. But ultimately I'm
looking at as like an eight or nine win team
on the road against one of the best teams in
(13:38):
the NFL who's absolutely ready to bounce back from last week,
So I say nine points is not enough. Bo Nicks
make some mistakes, has a couple turnovers in this game,
and they end up walking away with it. Maybe it's
not like a twenty point win, but it's thirty to sixteen.
They cover the nine. Let's go Ravens.
Speaker 3 (13:56):
You know what's wild is the rookie quarterback who scored
the most offensive touchdowns this year is Bonux not Jane
de I mean, I just thought that stat was wild.
And I just want to know how you feel about
my two preseason win total picks, because I feel like
this is I'm pretty happy about these. Yes, my NFC
pick for who was going to exceed their expectations was
(14:17):
the Seattle Seahawks, who was at who were at six
and a half.
Speaker 2 (14:20):
How are we feeling about that?
Speaker 1 (14:21):
That's fit? That's looking And how about.
Speaker 3 (14:23):
Them Broncos five and a half baby five and a
half wins?
Speaker 2 (14:27):
Are you kidding me?
Speaker 1 (14:28):
Are you? Yeah?
Speaker 2 (14:29):
Am I happy about that?
Speaker 1 (14:30):
Yeah?
Speaker 2 (14:30):
You're right? Am I tooting my own heart?
Speaker 1 (14:32):
Be shp? You should? That's if you can cash like
an over under win total.
Speaker 4 (14:37):
Before Thanksgiving, well before Thanksgiving, maybe maybe he can catch
it on Sunday if I'm just gonna eat good if
I'm very very wrong, Okay, so I'm going Baltimore minus
nine as my third pick on the off chance that
Lamar Jackson doesn't play. Just that, but backup for housekeeping purposes,
I'll just go with your Bills pick as my third, Okay,
(15:00):
And that is it. And yes, every week I have
a little box of extra picks. They've done pretty well
over the course of the season, all though.
Speaker 3 (15:06):
The box was the box came out of the gates
on fire.
Speaker 1 (15:09):
On fire, and they get on some water lately. But
I'm gonna stick with my Flacco plus five. I like
the Bills, as I mentioned, as kind of my backup there,
I get totally out of the Ravens business. If Lamar
is not playing, forget that game for just stay away.
And then the other one I kind of like this
week was Cincinnati minus nine as long as t Higgins.
(15:30):
You know te Higgins actually, I think makes a big
difference to me, and we're not sure about his status.
But I think they are a good team that absolutely
needs to win. I'm not giving up on them. The
Raiders have a defense that I won't be able to
stop them. Through the air or on the ground. I
actually think Chase Brown could get it going this week.
Speaker 3 (15:46):
So I think it's I think this is a wild
one where the Raiders have two different identities. There's the
good Raiders that can somehow upset the Ravens, and then
there's the not good Raiders and those are the ones
that are like, what am I even watching here?
Speaker 1 (16:00):
Right?
Speaker 3 (16:00):
So I'm just curious which one is going to show
up because my only kind of hmm, what are my
little clues here? Well, Roberts Bulaine has played this Bengals.
Speaker 2 (16:10):
Team quite a bit.
Speaker 3 (16:11):
He was a Steeler front okay, and Max Crosby. His
pressure rate is low for his season total. Usually he
didn't really wouldn't really make a lot of noise last week.
Speaker 2 (16:21):
So my I mean, I'm just saying for the number.
Speaker 3 (16:23):
I'm not saying for the win, just out of cure,
Like I don't know, So I don't know that it's
just which identity is coming, Yeah, the one that Antonio
Pierce like feels like is the one that takes on
the identity of their coach.
Speaker 1 (16:34):
Coming or is like it's like when they can get
up for games and Gardner Minshew plays well that's two
different things. They got up for that Chiefs game. They
played well, you know they covered, they didn't. They didn't
end up winning that game. Gardner Minshew played well. I
don't know if you can expect that two straight weeks.
So I like Cincinnati minus seven, but I like him
a lot better if t Higgins is that's right, playing
two review. We are both in on the Falcons. I
(16:55):
have Gobert Anders and the Ravens. You have the Bill
and your final pick was I forgot Minnesota. Minnesota. That's
right where we're going against each other. Thank you, Cynthia Freeland.
Check out Numbers Game on YouTube each and every week.
Check out this show on YouTube each and every week.
We can watch both, yes, or if you want, you know,
(17:16):
listen to yours, but subscribe like it. Check out NFL Daily.
It's been an awesome week of NFL Daily shows. Really, Look,
what's your favorite one to Sundays with you? Okay, the
one I'm doing and that's the one that we're doing
right now, and yes, we'll wrapping up. We'll be there
on Sunday Night with Patrick Claybon and Nick Nick Schook
from Cleveland. Yes, when we're talking about November. Football, I
(17:43):
mean football is really back. It's never been more back.
Host
Gregg Rosenthal
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