April 15, 2024 • 34 mins
Daniel Jeremiah and Bucky Brooks are back with a new episode of Move the Sticks. To start off, the guys tell stories of their time as scouts during draft week (1:05). Next, the pair discuss an article by The Athletic on odds a first-round wide receiver is a bust and after they compare the 2020-2022 draft classes of first and second round wide receivers (8:10). For the rest of the show, the guys give 4 teams, 2 from each conference, that have to get one thing accomplished in the draft (21:51).
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
And now move the sticks with Daniel Jeremiah and Bucky Brooks.
What's up everybody? DJ? Buck back with you here on
move the sticks. Buck. We are we're getting close, man.
The draft is less than two weeks away.
Speaker 2 (00:14):
How you doing, man, I'm good. I can't believe that
just a week and a half away. It kind of
I feel like it kind of crept up on us.
Maybe I don't know, maybe because the Super Bowl is longer.
I just feel like it's to rush now to get
it home. And I find myself on weekends still trying
to polish up tape to make sure, like, hey, who
can be the surprises? Who are the people that we
talk about down the line? To make sure I have
(00:36):
something on them? Just that so I'm and you're filling
my notebook up with all kinds of names down near
the bottom of the board, which is interesting always.
Speaker 1 (00:45):
Yeah, it's that time, man. I've been watching all these
non combine guys and just trying to pluck a few
out of the pile. So you know, it's like one
at every ten you watch, you're like, oh, something interesting here?
Maybe yeah, you know, yeah, I start talking yourself into
somebody when you get down to this this portion of
the process.
Speaker 3 (01:02):
But I mean that's where we're at.
Speaker 1 (01:05):
What did you guys do at the end, Like when
would you like with the team you were with.
Speaker 2 (01:10):
So we would come in, so in Seattle and Carolina respective,
we would come in Like you know, it's funny because
I always felt like Easter fail somewhere in there. So
you come in for maybe like ten days, go home
for Easter break, then come back to kind of finish
up the rest of the month. Those first two weeks
you're kind of redoing the board. You get all the
pro day information, you're putting all this stuff in. Some
(01:33):
of the stuff is beginning to trickle in in terms
of the background security reports. You go back for Easter,
you come back, then the medical comes in that week,
and then you really get the background report Like now
this isn't from the league. This is when your own investigators,
everyone has all the other stuff. And this is when
you see people mysteriously fall off the board.
Speaker 3 (01:53):
What happened to you know? So this is where we're at.
Speaker 2 (01:58):
And then you know, like the last week is make
making the phone calls, make sure you get all the
numbers and the you know, uh two numbers, the agent's number,
where you're gonna be on Draft Day? Have you had
any injuries, any of that last minute stuff. But I
mean pretty.
Speaker 3 (02:12):
Much DJ when we reached this week, the Hayes.
Speaker 2 (02:14):
And the barn I mean, we may not be preview
like some of the area scouts may not be privy
to what the pick is going to be at the top,
but a lot of the work is done. You just
kind of rehashing scenarios to making sure that you're getting
ready for the logistics of draft day.
Speaker 3 (02:28):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (02:28):
I remember when I first got into the league, when
you're kind of just a grunt. I had to for
the last week, I had to call all the guys
on our front board to make sure the number was correct.
So we have all the numbers, their phone numbers in
the system. So you you had to do that my
first year in the league. Yeah, my first year, every league.
Speaker 2 (02:47):
Every area scout, every area scout had to do the
guys in their areas. So you get an alphabetical list
of the names in your area and you would have
to call it or they would just divvy up the list. Hey, Buck,
you got pages four through eight, Okay, just go through
and every day like it's just.
Speaker 1 (03:05):
We might we might have split it up with some
of the other guys in house. But I remember I
had a boatload of those dudes that I was calling,
and then then I had to double check with the
agents make sure that this is the right agent with
the right player, because some of these guys have changed
agents and dropped them and all that stuff. But like,
(03:25):
this is like pre this is pre social media and
before these guys had any information, So the player would
you know when if you got ahead of it and
did it like a week ahead, because almost all the
teams had to do this.
Speaker 3 (03:37):
M h.
Speaker 1 (03:38):
But if you're one of the first teams that called them,
they think you're gonna pick them, like, oh, this is
my dream to play for the Ravens. Like I'm like, hey,
but I got to call another fifty guys after hanging
out with you man, and they were just making sure
we're good.
Speaker 3 (03:52):
Number. You get a backup number where you're gonna be
on draft day.
Speaker 2 (03:55):
I'm my mom's agent gonna be there, Okay, cool, thanks, Hey,
good luck.
Speaker 3 (04:01):
Yeah that was it. I got a bunch of EAMs
to go.
Speaker 2 (04:03):
I can't go home until I get through a certain allotment,
so I'm trying to get trying to get these things
one percent.
Speaker 1 (04:10):
One hundred percent. So that was spent time doing that.
And then as you got to be a little bit
more of a veteran, we were we we kind of
had the rest of the board all set up, but
it was for that first pick we would always and
I've told this a million times, so we would always
kind of identify wherever we were picking, like it's going
to be one of these five or ten players, you know,
(04:30):
so everybody in the room had to do them if
you hadn't done them already, and we would just kind
of discuss that first pick at the at the very end.
So that was that was pretty much it. But then
we would chill like the scouts, like we'd be done.
We'd be in the city. We'd be in Baltimore or
in Cleveland or Philadelphia, and your work's done. And so
you'd have like that week of the draft.
Speaker 3 (04:49):
The golf gentlemen, oh, we know, like we would go to.
Speaker 1 (04:52):
Baseball games or were like, uh, go to dinners. We
played whiffle ball one year, like randomly, I remember, Okay.
Speaker 2 (04:59):
Sometimes sometimes sometimes guys are due like the golf tournament,
like either a day or two before the draft. They
want to get together and kind of it's kind of
low key, like you kind of relaxing now, like it
is all the way done. You just kind of hanging out,
like you get a nice, nice meal. I think we
would happen.
Speaker 1 (05:15):
We went over to Billock's house in Baltimore. We had
we had we had a tradition of going to his house.
And by the way, he's since sold it, but his house.
There was a movie in the maybe maybe late eighties
early nineties called Her Alibi when Tom Selleck and I
don't even remember what the movie was about, but it
was shot at the house that Billock bought and it
(05:35):
was right and it was unbelievable. He catered it, so,
I mean it was like the nicest shrimp and everything.
Speaker 3 (05:42):
It was. It was nice.
Speaker 1 (05:44):
It was it was very nice. It was kind of
his way of thinking everybody for kind of you know,
making it through the draft process. He didn't that all
the time, but he was a good dude. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (05:53):
I do like like those things because there is that
camaraderie part of it, you know, because when you're on
the road, man, it can be a only existence away
from the team, like you don't really feel like a
part of the team. So being in the office for
those times, like multiple weeks in a row, you kind
of feel like you're a part of the group because
a lot of times you're you're the lone wolf. You're
(06:13):
all the way on the West Coast. No one pays
attention to what you're doing, and they check in, they
see you reports in those things. But it's it's look,
it's a it's a different existence, but it can be
a lot of fun, like getting down to that. And
then when you get the drafted were you were you guys?
I guess everyone's kind of liked it. Were you a
suited and booted team? Like on draft?
Speaker 3 (06:35):
So we were uh.
Speaker 1 (06:36):
Yeah, we were dressed in Baltimore, Baltimore, we had to
dress up a little bit, and then uh in uh gosh,
same same in Cleveland, and then with uh with Philly.
Trying to remember Philly, I think was a little more
dressed down. Maybe not as that's maybe just like a
polo or something, but I do uh, I do remember,
(06:59):
and there's video of it, like I used to have
my first two years. I was maybe even I think
I might even have done it when i'd moved out
of the office. But I was on the phone with
Chad Alexander, who's now the GM of the Chargers. Yeah, Act.
So Acts would be in New York on the phones,
and then I would be in the room in the
draft room on the phone. So once we decided who
we're going to pick, my job to just make sure
that that Chad had the right name and spelling and
(07:21):
all that.
Speaker 2 (07:21):
Hey, make sure we spell it right. Make sure we
get the card right. A. What I used to love is, hey,
write these two names down on the card. We don't
know which one we're gonna pick yet. They just put
these two names on the card and then we'll call
you back and we'll tell you what we're doing.
Speaker 1 (07:39):
The teams that trust me, like when you would be
on the phone trying to make a trade the team
that's picking, because they used to have them sitting next
to each other, and there's I know, I can tell
you stories, but like people would write down a name
of the player they knew the team behind them wanted
to take, and then try and bait them into trading
up one spot to take the player.
Speaker 2 (08:00):
So it's always always a bunch of snanis nonsense.
Speaker 1 (08:04):
But today Buck, I want to. I mean had fun
kind of talking about what we were going and what
we had going on during this time in the old
scouting days. But I want to I want to touch
on something that you brought to my attention, an article
about US rate of wide receivers. So we're going to
get to that first round wide receivers and why there's
risk involved, and maybe we can learn something about what
they have in common, the guys who haven't worked out.
(08:24):
And then after that we'll take a break, and then
I want to I want to hit on maybe some
teams that have maybe a handful of teams we think
have to get one specific thing accomplished or they are
and they're screwed. So they got to get one thing
for sure accomplished in this draft. But let's let's start
things off once you tell me a little bit about
this article, how you stumbled upon it and what you learned.
Speaker 2 (08:42):
Okay, so, DJ, we had that that time of the year,
and I don't know if you do this, but this
is a time where you start reading material because I'm
just trying to figure out, like you just don't want
to miss anybody.
Speaker 3 (08:52):
Is there something that I miss?
Speaker 2 (08:53):
Is your name that I miss, is there some kind
of trend that is kind of emerging that I'm not
aware of? And so I find this piece in The
Athletic Dana Roussini was a part of the group that
they came up with it, and was the bus rate
of first round receivers. And the article kind of broke
it down in four different categories, but the thing that
stood out to me was reaches and bust And I
(09:17):
think it was like since twenty eleven they had gone
through done all the research and kind of gone through
all the first round receivers and kind of put them
in a category and the number was astonishing based on
like the reach and the bus rate they combined. For
about sixty three percent of those first round receivers were
viewed as either reaches or busts. And to me it
kind of woke me up. I was like, WHOA, that's
(09:39):
a significant number. Given what we talked about the first round.
The first round is kind of like a fifty to
fifty bus rate the way that we talk about whether
you can get like a starter, a star, someone that's
a fringe player or whatever. But as much as we've
talked about the wide receivers and how deep the wide
receivers are and this class and loaded in all of
(10:01):
these things. It kind of brought me back to that
point where it is so deep. I wonder if people
are missing the boat by ignoring the first round and
maybe focusing on finding their wide receivers and stuff in
the second round, where maybe the risk comes down because
the amount of money invested kind of goes down, and
(10:21):
it gives you an opportunity maybe to find those value
prices because coming from the Green Bay thing, like that's
what green Bay has always done. They kind of stayed
away from the first round, but they've been able to
find starters that have emerged as Star Plus's second, third,
fourth round.
Speaker 1 (10:37):
All right, let's let's just do a little project. Then
let's go let's not let's go where we have a
little more data, so let's not do last year. Okay,
so let's go to twenty two, and I want to
do two different things here. Look at we can say
maybe somebody who hasn't worked out and hasn't been maybe
as valued as where they were picked in the first round.
And then I want to just give you the names
(10:58):
of the guys who went in the second round to
just see what caliber of player is there if you
elected to pass on that option. All right, all right,
let's jump into it here. Let's go. Uh So twenty
twenty two. Drake London, we would say is a hit, right, Yeah,
Garrett Wilson's a hit. Chris o'lave is a hit. That's
three for three on those guys. Yeah, Jamison, Jamison Williams
(11:20):
hasn't you know, he's flashed off the injury suspend I
can't ski.
Speaker 2 (11:24):
Yeah, I can't call him a thing. He'd be more incomplete,
but he wouldn't be a bust because.
Speaker 1 (11:28):
He's not a bust. Johan Dotson, you know, I think
he's I think he's trending in the right direction.
Speaker 3 (11:36):
He's fine.
Speaker 1 (11:37):
I don't think they hit a home run. Traylon Burks
has not worked out so far. So that's your first rounder.
So let's just let's just say, you know, Williams Dotson,
I still think we're.
Speaker 3 (11:51):
To home one there, something like that. So it would be.
Speaker 1 (11:55):
Drake, Garrett Olave. So that's three for sures, and then
that's two solids and then one who hasn't really hasn't
got it yet. Yeah, we're worried about a little bit.
So then but if I give you the names in
the second round there and I'll just run through them,
it's Wandale Rominson, John Metchi, Taekwon Thornton, George Pickens, Alec Pierce,
(12:17):
sky Moore. Those are your second round picks.
Speaker 3 (12:21):
None of those really excited me.
Speaker 1 (12:22):
DJ Yeah, not the sexiest group.
Speaker 3 (12:25):
None of those really excited me.
Speaker 1 (12:27):
Let's move back, well just just a few years twenty one,
Jamar Chase home run, Waddle home run, DeVante Smith just
got paid home run. So what we're seeing, at least
early on, is those top three guys in those two
classes have been home runs.
Speaker 2 (12:41):
That yeah, separators, Yeah, the separated so and I think
in the art of the contention was if you draft
one into top ten, they're more likely to hit. It's
the guys that are later the bottom of the first
round in the teens in twenties where you have some
of that.
Speaker 1 (12:56):
M Yeah, well that's that's what we're getting because Cadarius
Tony was a miss at twenty. Rashad Bateman hasn't lived
up to where he was picked there, inconsistent he was
twenty seven. So then you go to the second round
guys Elijah Moore, Rondell Moore, Dwayne Eskridge to two at well,
Terrence Marshall. That's not a great group there either, you know,
(13:18):
not a great group. So it's like, so anyways, well
let's let's do one more year then we'll circle back.
So then we go to twenty twenty, which was the
huge wide receiver year. Henry Ruggs was the first one.
Obviously nobody for.
Speaker 2 (13:33):
Said was It's almost it's almost like it almost like
you got to give them incomplete because that's an off
the field thing, but on the with.
Speaker 1 (13:41):
A guy who had no no character issues coming out either.
So I don't know how you could have foreseen that.
Speaker 2 (13:46):
No, I mean, there was no trail, no Brad Crunch
to show you that this is what was going going
to happen.
Speaker 1 (13:52):
And I think his I think as a player he
was you know, he was he was starting to show
signs he was going to be pretty good.
Speaker 2 (13:58):
Yes, yeah, he has some big some big plays. He
was showing those things. So we throw Rugs to the side.
Speaker 1 (14:04):
Yeah, put Ruggs off to the side here, Jerry Judy. No,
he's already on another team.
Speaker 2 (14:10):
But again, fifteen I know, another team, another team on
a big contract.
Speaker 3 (14:14):
But you're right, fifteenth pick.
Speaker 2 (14:16):
He certainly in Denver, did not live up or play
up to expectations.
Speaker 3 (14:20):
He was supposed to be the guy.
Speaker 2 (14:21):
You would think that he would have taken the number
one role particilely from courting sudden that never materialized.
Speaker 1 (14:27):
Ceedee Lamb home run, Jalen Rager with Justin Jefferson home
run Brandon Ayuku. I would say home run for where
he was picked there at twenty fifteen, for sure. So
the guys that missed there, you've got off the field
issue with Rugs, You've got Rager. He's a little stiff
speed receiver.
Speaker 2 (14:48):
Just never worked out. Miss just a mis evaluation, like
we just missed.
Speaker 1 (14:52):
What about Jerry Judy. Jerry Judy is the one that
I probably have the toughest time reconciling why that didn't
work out.
Speaker 2 (14:59):
I like ad I liked him a lot coming out.
I don't know why it didn't work out, Like I
don't know if like fit in scheme. I mean he
had flashes, but you remember the first year he had
a series of drops and that it never well take
that back. I maybe ignored the drops that he may
have had at Alabama. I think you came back and
pointed out like no, like, remember at Alabama, he had
(15:21):
a few bobbles and drops in those things. He had
drops that first year. Remember then the second year he
came back and was okay, but it just never really
clicked or popped for him as a number one. And
so I'll say some of is the players. Some of
it is also like scheme deployment in those things, but
it never really worked.
Speaker 3 (15:41):
Was it three two different coaches or three different coaches in.
Speaker 1 (15:44):
Three years through it?
Speaker 3 (15:46):
Yeah?
Speaker 1 (15:47):
Three? I think, right y, yeah, three three, three different coaches.
So we go to the second round that year of
that deep class. Michael Pittman, Janault, kJ Hammler, Claypool, Van Van, Jefferson,
Denzel Fuck. I'm looking at that going what we've looked
on for just a three year sample size. I'm saying
that a frek I'd be more scared to take it
(16:07):
one in the second round than I would in the first.
Speaker 2 (16:09):
Yeah. I think what this exercise has done. It sounds
nice in theory to talk about the second round and
third round receivers, but it is a noticeable divide between
like the top top guys and the overwhelming majority of
the guys that were taken in the second round. The
guys at the top of the the top of the draft,
(16:30):
the wide receivers at the top of the charts. The
hit rate on those guys has been pretty good. If
you look at where those guys, particularly if they grade
out as a top ten talent, those guys have all
played and played pretty well. You haven't had many errors
when you've drafted someone in the top ten who's had
that kind of considerable talents.
Speaker 1 (16:51):
Yeah. Man, it's interesting, and I'm going through the third
round and it's not great there. It's almost to me
like the receiver position is so deep of names and
everything that like if you get one of the premier guys,
get one of the premier guys, but after that, you're
almost almost, hey, I'm gonna take I'm gonna take two
of them in like the fourth and fifth round, like
fourth or sixth round. Just take some flyers on some
(17:13):
guys in that range.
Speaker 2 (17:14):
So here's the funny thing. I had this conversation, uh,
with a long time personnel executive, Like this was like
a year or so ago, and they were saying that
with the I guess the explosion of the spread offense
at the collegiate level and how the college game is
so vastly different than the pro game. It doesn't matter
whether you take a receiver in the first, second, fourth,
the the bus rate and the challenge of getting them
(17:36):
ready to play is the same because most of these
guys have never taken in a play from the huddle.
They've all looked to the sideline to look at the placards.
They have rarely played in a pro style offense that's
required them to run pro routes, and so the learning
curve is the same for everybody no matter where they
come in, and it might explain why sometimes we'll see
a third or fourth round or a guy like a
(17:58):
Puka Nakua emerge while a first rounder or a hot
second rounder struggles because it's still the same. So regardless
of your talent, the acclimation to the game is a
huge transition because the game at the pro level is
so different than the collegiate game that we're seeing.
Speaker 1 (18:16):
So hear me out on this one. Then, if you're
if what we're looking at is the guys you take
up in the top ten, the premier guys, it's a
very high batting average, right, And if we're saying, look
what the wide receivers are making DeVante Smith's new deal.
I think it's twenty five million a year. So if
we're going to say, like, what's the most bang for
your buck while also being somewhat safe, right, like not missing.
Speaker 3 (18:39):
Top ten, top ten receiver.
Speaker 1 (18:41):
I keep coming back to sitting there thinking, we've got teams.
You know, We've got Arizona, We've got the Chargers, we've
got the Giants, four, five, six, And I remember we
did that. Remember the first mock drafts we were doing.
We were like, we're gonna have receivers go four, five
and six. And now when you look back on it
and you're taking this information, it's like, man, that's a
(19:01):
not only a great player, it's a great value and
it's a low risk.
Speaker 2 (19:06):
You better, you better grab him early, because like as
much as we talked about, hey, Arizona, you trade down,
get a bunch of picks and this, and that you
come back and get your need, the odds suggests that
you're not going to fill.
Speaker 3 (19:17):
It, that you're not you're not gonna get the same
kind of player.
Speaker 2 (19:20):
And it's funny, how like when you read those names
off now where we're not emotionally attached to them, in
this draft class. None of those names were like ooh,
I got it.
Speaker 3 (19:30):
I have to get him. Uh, Nobille put one aim
in like Christian Watson.
Speaker 1 (19:36):
But he's been good. He hasn't been.
Speaker 2 (19:38):
Yeah, like he's the only one. But like, I just
want to give no Bill like a little credit. He
chimed in with his packer love. So I want to
make sure that it was recognized. But I think now,
when you take away the emotional part of looking at
those guys that were taken in the second and third.
Speaker 3 (19:54):
Round, maybe we over value those guys.
Speaker 2 (20:00):
Take and like, for instance, like yesterday, I spent a
lot of time looking at Jermaine Burton, right, I was
looking at Jamain Burn because I'm trying to figure out, like, okay,
which of these second and third round guys is going
to be the one that gives you the tank deal stuff?
Speaker 3 (20:12):
Right, So I'm looking at him. I'm like, all right, man,
I'm excited.
Speaker 2 (20:14):
Like he's averaged over twenty yards per catch last year,
he's averaging the high teens for most of his career
at Georgia, at Bama.
Speaker 3 (20:21):
He has speed, he has all this other stuff.
Speaker 2 (20:24):
But I'm like, okay, you give me these second round
names like what separates him from Escridge, what separates him
from Scott Moore, We separates him from you know, some
of the other guys that haven't had the burst in
those things. And I think it requires everybody to do
a deeper dive in terms of what really plays, not
(20:44):
what plays at the position, but what impact.
Speaker 3 (20:48):
Players are at the position.
Speaker 2 (20:49):
What are the common traits where you're getting the impact
players that are drafted outside of the first round, and
can we find any of those guys? Everyone's excited about
poking the cool and so now the conversation has been
how were we gonna find the next one?
Speaker 3 (21:03):
But the Jay I've said this and we've talked about it.
Speaker 2 (21:07):
As much as we love to find the hidden gems
in the draft, this league is a first and second
round league. It's a league where when you look at
the Pro Bowl list and those things, those lists are
littered with typically first and second rounds and really first rounders.
And so when we talk about the first round of
the draft, you better make sure that you get it
right in the first round because those are the guys
(21:27):
that are typically going to be the impact players on
your team and the ones that last for the longest
time in the league.
Speaker 1 (21:33):
No question. Well, it's a fun conversation. It's a great point.
I'm glad you brought that up. Fun to dig into
that one. Let's say quick break, we'll come back. We'll
identify a couple of teams that have a a must
do list, not a to du list, a must do list.
I don't get to that right after this, All right, Buck,
let's do uh, let's do two teams in each conference,
(21:56):
so just four total teams here, teams that have something
that they absolutely must get accomplished in this draft. So
if we're gonna start in the AFC, I'll give you
some time to think here, and I'll give you mine
of a team that has to get something accomplished. I'm
gonna go to the I'm gonna go to the Pittsburgh
Steelers here. Maybe a little bit of off the grid.
(22:20):
When you look at the Pittsburgh Steelers, they made the
two moves, right, You get Russell Wilson, you get Justin Fields,
but they trade Deontay Johnson. You know, George Pickens, it
seems like has been somewhat in the doghouse out of
the doghouse during his time there. I just look at
that and and I go, okay, I like, you know,
(22:40):
low cost editions of quees, Watkins and Van Jefferson, But
there is not enough here offensively at that position. There
is not enough firepower, especially in the AFC that's as
stacked as it is. They to me have. And I
don't know if it's at twenty. You know, we've talked
about offensive line for them. Potentially maybe they go in
(23:01):
another direction. They need some impact. They didn't impact receiver
man ad mm so.
Speaker 2 (23:06):
So what I'm hearing is you're saying you want to
try it out. Brian Thomas Jr. And George Pickens uh
two long striders.
Speaker 1 (23:14):
They side with Russell Wilson and launching rainbows out there
and justin fields.
Speaker 2 (23:20):
So as we're thinking about it, they talked about being
more committed to the running game. We're gonna run the football.
Arthur Smith comes in there. You think about, okay, let's
how do we build this offense. Even though we're saying
Russell maybe on a short term plan. What did Russell
have when he was at his best right? And so
then you look at, oh, he had a long receiver
like DK Metcalf when he was throwing those deep balls,
frying him down the field. He had fast athletic guys
(23:42):
like Tyler Lockett, he had Doug Ball when he was crafty.
He looked he did a lot with your main curse
on the outside, like he's had some bigger guys. So
maybe that is the way to stillers go saying, hey,
we'll get outside. We can come back and get an
interior block, a tackle or whatever in the second round
and be able to do it because you're right this division,
(24:03):
we talk about building your team to win the division.
This division, the Cincinnati Bengals, look, they have firepower on offense,
You're gonna have to be able to outscore. Then when
it comes to Joe Burrow, the Cleveland Browns arguably have
the best roster in the division. And then you know,
look Baltimore Lamar Jackson coming off MVP season, they're still
looking to flip the wide receiver room to make this
offense probably more modern or more past centric. You better
(24:26):
have enough fire priwer because you're not gonna be able
to keep the points down. You got to be able
to kind of put points on the board.
Speaker 1 (24:31):
And I know people are going to say, you guys
just did a whole segment on receivers and risk outside
the top ten. But I'm sitting here going, well, there
have been some exceptions, and you're hoping for one here
justin Jefferson, there's a home run of home runs. Maybe
you've got to go shopping at the same store, Buck.
Maybe you got to go back to LSU and go
grab Brian Thomas if he gets in range. I don't
(24:52):
know he's going to get there, but that'd be awfully
hard to turn down, knowing the lack of firepower they
have on the outside.
Speaker 2 (24:59):
Yeah, no, they have to do it because they have
forever moved on the inside. They have George Pickens, but
is he ready to be the number one receiver? I
believe they moved Deontay Johnson out of there just because, look,
you no longer a fit. I would say maybe culturally,
like there were some things that kind of emerged, like
maybe he and George Pickens just you know, maybe some
of the selfishness to Anti just didn't work for the team.
(25:20):
Maybe you just kind of reset the position trying and
find another playmaker that you compare opposite George Pickens.
Speaker 1 (25:26):
All right, so give me a team here, a team
in the AFC. One one particular thing they've got to
get done, could be obvious, could be off the.
Speaker 3 (25:36):
Bills, the Buffalo Bills. I mean, so here here's my
thing with the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo Bills.
Speaker 2 (25:42):
At the bottom of the first round, you got rid
of your number one receiver and Stefan Diggs. I mean,
you really don't have another guy in the building, Gabby Davis. Yeah,
you let him walk out. I mean last year you
brought Dalton Kin Caden, so you solid at tight end.
But what are we doing on the outside. How are
we going to win If we're counting on Josh Allen
to do Patrick Mahomes like things.
Speaker 3 (26:03):
Man, what are the receivers that are gonna help him
do that?
Speaker 2 (26:06):
You know, because we can't just have him running around
making plays and doing it in a Sandloi fashion. They
have to find some route runners, some guys that consistently
get open and do it. And DJ the problem that
you have is you're sitting down there at the bottom
of the first round. We talked about the bus rate
increasingly increasing significantly when you're in the twenties, and so
(26:27):
if we take Brian Thomas off the board and we
got a d Mitchell, I mean you talk about lab
of KANKI you talk about Keyan Coleman or whatever you
want to do it. Are we confident that we can
identify the guy at the bottom of the first round
that is kind of like the sleeper pick that's going
to emerge as a number one receiver.
Speaker 1 (26:44):
Yeah, that's a great point. And I think they picked sixty, right,
that's their second round pick. Yeah, so yeah, I'll be
interesting to see if they go with one of these.
They got a lot of holes. Man, It's not even
just that wide receiver position. There's so many other holes
that they've got to fill.
Speaker 2 (27:00):
I mean, look, it's not only just wide receiver, both safeties, secondary.
Speaker 3 (27:08):
You lose Leonard Floyd, you need another pass rusher. I'm
be honest.
Speaker 1 (27:13):
I don't love I don't love the offensive line.
Speaker 3 (27:16):
I mean, I'm be honest with you.
Speaker 2 (27:17):
A team that is has been heled as a Super
Bowl contended for the last two three years, you're looking
at the roster as president constructed, You're almost seeing no way.
There's no way they're gonna be able to do it
unless they are able to get some blue chip players
to come in there. Because they're strapped from the cap standpoint,
and so This is really hard. It's gonna be a
challenge for Brandon being a company to be able to
get this one right.
Speaker 1 (27:39):
Yeah, I'm with you. When I go to another team
here in the let's go over to the NFC. Will
each pick a team here in the NFC that has
something to get accomplished. This one, I mean, it's not
going to be addressed in the first round. But if
you looked at the Dallas Cowboys running back depth chart,
not good. Their starter is not on their team right
(27:59):
now now, I'm right, right now.
Speaker 2 (28:01):
Theyre talking about Deuce Faon, They're talking about having a
reunion with Ezekiel Elliott and those things. But DJ, I'm
gonna say this, and it's common. It has always been
the thing for the Dallas Cowboys. When you look at
the Cowboys when they've been at their best, they have
stood running back behind that Dak presk I mean, I
mean you go back to DeMarco Murray, who wasn't with
(28:21):
Dak Prescott, but they had a legitimate running back to
compliment the quarterback. So Murray, Ezekiel Elliott, they have to
go and get a Baill cow The issue that I
have I look at this draft, I don't. I don't
know if I see one, you know, I don't know
if I see one that can come and save the day.
And on path today I was like, oh, yeah, Trey Benson,
(28:42):
you know, but Trey Benson doesn't have like that kind
of pedigree on paper.
Speaker 3 (28:46):
To say that he can be that DJ. I don't know.
Speaker 2 (28:49):
So we say they got to get a bail cow
running back. If you're pressed right now, and they're like,
hey man, you got fifteen seconds to pick a running
back for the Dallas Cooutboys.
Speaker 3 (28:56):
Who would be the.
Speaker 1 (28:57):
Pick I'm taking Marshawn Lloyd. That's who I'm taking from USC.
I think, you know to me, when you look at it,
there's a four or five of them that are kind
of similarly graded. Benson's in that mix as well. If
you're Dallas. Here's the decision that Dallas is. This is
the toughest decision they're going to have to make. They're
not going to take one with the twenty fourth pick,
(29:18):
but they have to decide fifty six. They might have
their choice of any of them, right they get their
top guy. Did they sit there and say, well, between
fifty six in the second round, we pick eighty seven
in the third round. Is the run gonna finish before
we get to eighty seven? Like, say we have five
running backs, we like they're all there at fifty six.
(29:41):
Is there a hope that we get one of them
there at eighty seven or do we get I don't
think they can gamble. I think they have to take
one at fifty six.
Speaker 3 (29:48):
I think it has to be a second round pick.
Speaker 2 (29:51):
I think they have to position themselves say we don't
really want to take a pick and knee, but in
the second round they have say we committed taking a
running back, and depending on how the draft is breaking,
all of a sudden, there's a little run that starts
taking place at forty five. A man, we gotta get up.
We gotta make sure we get a running back. And
I would say this DJ, I think they need too.
I think they have to double up. I think they
(30:11):
need to take one in the second round to come
back in the fourth or fifth round and take another one.
You know, someone that can play, maybe you go to
the sixth round. They need to see if they can
find a hidden gym that can emerge as a guy
that can be a legitimate workhorse running back for him.
I don't like the committee situation, even though everyone is
going to it, I believe they need someone who opponents
fear so that can alleviate some of the pressure on
(30:32):
Dak Prescott.
Speaker 1 (30:33):
Yeah. No, it's going to be fascinating there. All right,
you're the last one here. Give me one more team
in the NFC that you think has something that they
absolutely must get accomplished in this draft class.
Speaker 2 (30:45):
Okay, so my initial inkling was to talk about the
Minnesota Vikings and quarterback, but I don't know if that's
necessarily true. I'm not a Sam Donald apologist, but I
feel like they have enough that they should be able
to kind of get.
Speaker 1 (30:58):
If Sam can't do with this group, then it's not
going to happen. So what's our last hope for those
of us that are still still waving the flag? Was
just like this is the last shot here.
Speaker 3 (31:07):
It's all over. So here's what I'm saying.
Speaker 2 (31:09):
I'm gonna say the Atlanta Falcons finding a pass rush.
And the reason why because on paper, the Atlanta Falcons
look like they should be ready to go with Kirk Cousins,
that Kirk Cousins should be able to put this team
in a position to get the ten by himself in
terms of like what they have on offense, be John
Robinson running back straight London. Hopefully they'll finally get the
ball to col Pits and they should be able to
(31:31):
go to got Darniel Muney. So offensively they're good. But
to win in this league, if you have a good offense,
you got to have closers. I don't know who their
closers are. So can they get the closer at pick
eight and they find someone that can give them double
digit sacks that you can count on? And remember, Man,
the Falcons, it's kind of been a black hole for
pass rushers. They like, they've tried this the last three,
(31:53):
four or five years. They haven't been able to get it.
They have to find a legitimate high end pass rush.
Speaker 1 (31:58):
They're picking up there at eight. They're going to have
more than likely their choice of any of them. So
they're all going to be there for them. They just
got to pick the right one. But that I think
that's a no brainer. I like that one, all right.
Speaker 3 (32:09):
Buck.
Speaker 1 (32:09):
That's that's all we've got for today. Anything else you
want to get into before we get out of.
Speaker 2 (32:12):
Here, Man, ten days, ten days we can have before
the draft goes when you leave to go.
Speaker 1 (32:16):
To Detroit Sunday. I think I head out there Sunday,
so I'll be out there all week. So I haven't
even looked at a weather report yet. I don't know
what we're looking at. I guess could kind of go
either way that part of the country during this time
of the year. So hope for the best. They're say
you that much, I will say I've I've changed over
the years. I used to I used to go full
suits at these things, and then I realized, there's the
(32:38):
days are so long and you're sitting at a desk
the whole time. So I've kind of more I mean,
not like jeans, but the you know, more of those
athletic pants, you know, like golf pants. Yeah, that's I
went to the store this weekend, loaded up on a
couple more of those. I got, got comfortable shoes. Gotta
have the comfortable shoes, comfortable pants, and then everything up
here is business. We're acts down below.
Speaker 2 (33:01):
We're a TV anchorman, Yeah, TV anchorman. We're sports anchor
in a KKL.
Speaker 3 (33:08):
Kt l A. We're doing it. We're making sure that
we looked apart up top.
Speaker 1 (33:12):
Don't comfortable be comfortable, long day.
Speaker 3 (33:15):
Super long day, so it should be fun.
Speaker 1 (33:18):
Yeah, looking forward to it all right. I hope you
guys enjoyed this one. We appreciate you leaving us ratings
and reviews, especially during this time. You're getting the word out.
If you haven't done that already, we encourage you to
do so we will see you next time. We've got
a couple more episodes coming this week. We've got I've
got a conference call episode Buck. Then we've got our
friend Times is going to join us. So three episodes
(33:39):
this week with a stick. So appreciate everybody hanging with us,
and we'll see you next time.
Speaker 3 (33:42):
Writing
And now move the sticks with Daniel Jeremiah and Bucky Brooks.
What's up everybody? DJ? Buck back with you here on
move the sticks. Buck. We are we're getting close, man.
The draft is less than two weeks away.
Speaker 2 (00:14):
How you doing, man, I'm good. I can't believe that
just a week and a half away. It kind of
I feel like it kind of crept up on us.
Maybe I don't know, maybe because the Super Bowl is longer.
I just feel like it's to rush now to get
it home. And I find myself on weekends still trying
to polish up tape to make sure, like, hey, who
can be the surprises? Who are the people that we
talk about down the line? To make sure I have
(00:36):
something on them? Just that so I'm and you're filling
my notebook up with all kinds of names down near
the bottom of the board, which is interesting always.
Speaker 1 (00:45):
Yeah, it's that time, man. I've been watching all these
non combine guys and just trying to pluck a few
out of the pile. So you know, it's like one
at every ten you watch, you're like, oh, something interesting here?
Maybe yeah, you know, yeah, I start talking yourself into
somebody when you get down to this this portion of
the process.
Speaker 3 (01:02):
But I mean that's where we're at.
Speaker 1 (01:05):
What did you guys do at the end, Like when
would you like with the team you were with.
Speaker 2 (01:10):
So we would come in, so in Seattle and Carolina respective,
we would come in Like you know, it's funny because
I always felt like Easter fail somewhere in there. So
you come in for maybe like ten days, go home
for Easter break, then come back to kind of finish
up the rest of the month. Those first two weeks
you're kind of redoing the board. You get all the
pro day information, you're putting all this stuff in. Some
(01:33):
of the stuff is beginning to trickle in in terms
of the background security reports. You go back for Easter,
you come back, then the medical comes in that week,
and then you really get the background report Like now
this isn't from the league. This is when your own investigators,
everyone has all the other stuff. And this is when
you see people mysteriously fall off the board.
Speaker 3 (01:53):
What happened to you know? So this is where we're at.
Speaker 2 (01:58):
And then you know, like the last week is make
making the phone calls, make sure you get all the
numbers and the you know, uh two numbers, the agent's number,
where you're gonna be on Draft Day? Have you had
any injuries, any of that last minute stuff. But I
mean pretty.
Speaker 3 (02:12):
Much DJ when we reached this week, the Hayes.
Speaker 2 (02:14):
And the barn I mean, we may not be preview
like some of the area scouts may not be privy
to what the pick is going to be at the top,
but a lot of the work is done. You just
kind of rehashing scenarios to making sure that you're getting
ready for the logistics of draft day.
Speaker 3 (02:28):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (02:28):
I remember when I first got into the league, when
you're kind of just a grunt. I had to for
the last week, I had to call all the guys
on our front board to make sure the number was correct.
So we have all the numbers, their phone numbers in
the system. So you you had to do that my
first year in the league. Yeah, my first year, every league.
Speaker 2 (02:47):
Every area scout, every area scout had to do the
guys in their areas. So you get an alphabetical list
of the names in your area and you would have
to call it or they would just divvy up the list. Hey, Buck,
you got pages four through eight, Okay, just go through
and every day like it's just.
Speaker 1 (03:05):
We might we might have split it up with some
of the other guys in house. But I remember I
had a boatload of those dudes that I was calling,
and then then I had to double check with the
agents make sure that this is the right agent with
the right player, because some of these guys have changed
agents and dropped them and all that stuff. But like,
(03:25):
this is like pre this is pre social media and
before these guys had any information, So the player would
you know when if you got ahead of it and
did it like a week ahead, because almost all the
teams had to do this.
Speaker 3 (03:37):
M h.
Speaker 1 (03:38):
But if you're one of the first teams that called them,
they think you're gonna pick them, like, oh, this is
my dream to play for the Ravens. Like I'm like, hey,
but I got to call another fifty guys after hanging
out with you man, and they were just making sure
we're good.
Speaker 3 (03:52):
Number. You get a backup number where you're gonna be
on draft day.
Speaker 2 (03:55):
I'm my mom's agent gonna be there, Okay, cool, thanks, Hey,
good luck.
Speaker 3 (04:01):
Yeah that was it. I got a bunch of EAMs
to go.
Speaker 2 (04:03):
I can't go home until I get through a certain allotment,
so I'm trying to get trying to get these things
one percent.
Speaker 1 (04:10):
One hundred percent. So that was spent time doing that.
And then as you got to be a little bit
more of a veteran, we were we we kind of
had the rest of the board all set up, but
it was for that first pick we would always and
I've told this a million times, so we would always
kind of identify wherever we were picking, like it's going
to be one of these five or ten players, you know,
(04:30):
so everybody in the room had to do them if
you hadn't done them already, and we would just kind
of discuss that first pick at the at the very end.
So that was that was pretty much it. But then
we would chill like the scouts, like we'd be done.
We'd be in the city. We'd be in Baltimore or
in Cleveland or Philadelphia, and your work's done. And so
you'd have like that week of the draft.
Speaker 3 (04:49):
The golf gentlemen, oh, we know, like we would go to.
Speaker 1 (04:52):
Baseball games or were like, uh, go to dinners. We
played whiffle ball one year, like randomly, I remember, Okay.
Speaker 2 (04:59):
Sometimes sometimes sometimes guys are due like the golf tournament,
like either a day or two before the draft. They
want to get together and kind of it's kind of
low key, like you kind of relaxing now, like it
is all the way done. You just kind of hanging out,
like you get a nice, nice meal. I think we
would happen.
Speaker 1 (05:15):
We went over to Billock's house in Baltimore. We had
we had we had a tradition of going to his house.
And by the way, he's since sold it, but his house.
There was a movie in the maybe maybe late eighties
early nineties called Her Alibi when Tom Selleck and I
don't even remember what the movie was about, but it
was shot at the house that Billock bought and it
(05:35):
was right and it was unbelievable. He catered it, so,
I mean it was like the nicest shrimp and everything.
Speaker 3 (05:42):
It was. It was nice.
Speaker 1 (05:44):
It was it was very nice. It was kind of
his way of thinking everybody for kind of you know,
making it through the draft process. He didn't that all
the time, but he was a good dude. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (05:53):
I do like like those things because there is that
camaraderie part of it, you know, because when you're on
the road, man, it can be a only existence away
from the team, like you don't really feel like a
part of the team. So being in the office for
those times, like multiple weeks in a row, you kind
of feel like you're a part of the group because
a lot of times you're you're the lone wolf. You're
(06:13):
all the way on the West Coast. No one pays
attention to what you're doing, and they check in, they
see you reports in those things. But it's it's look,
it's a it's a different existence, but it can be
a lot of fun, like getting down to that. And
then when you get the drafted were you were you guys?
I guess everyone's kind of liked it. Were you a
suited and booted team? Like on draft?
Speaker 3 (06:35):
So we were uh.
Speaker 1 (06:36):
Yeah, we were dressed in Baltimore, Baltimore, we had to
dress up a little bit, and then uh in uh gosh,
same same in Cleveland, and then with uh with Philly.
Trying to remember Philly, I think was a little more
dressed down. Maybe not as that's maybe just like a
polo or something, but I do uh, I do remember,
(06:59):
and there's video of it, like I used to have
my first two years. I was maybe even I think
I might even have done it when i'd moved out
of the office. But I was on the phone with
Chad Alexander, who's now the GM of the Chargers. Yeah, Act.
So Acts would be in New York on the phones,
and then I would be in the room in the
draft room on the phone. So once we decided who
we're going to pick, my job to just make sure
that that Chad had the right name and spelling and
(07:21):
all that.
Speaker 2 (07:21):
Hey, make sure we spell it right. Make sure we
get the card right. A. What I used to love is, hey,
write these two names down on the card. We don't
know which one we're gonna pick yet. They just put
these two names on the card and then we'll call
you back and we'll tell you what we're doing.
Speaker 1 (07:39):
The teams that trust me, like when you would be
on the phone trying to make a trade the team
that's picking, because they used to have them sitting next
to each other, and there's I know, I can tell
you stories, but like people would write down a name
of the player they knew the team behind them wanted
to take, and then try and bait them into trading
up one spot to take the player.
Speaker 2 (08:00):
So it's always always a bunch of snanis nonsense.
Speaker 1 (08:04):
But today Buck, I want to. I mean had fun
kind of talking about what we were going and what
we had going on during this time in the old
scouting days. But I want to I want to touch
on something that you brought to my attention, an article
about US rate of wide receivers. So we're going to
get to that first round wide receivers and why there's
risk involved, and maybe we can learn something about what
they have in common, the guys who haven't worked out.
(08:24):
And then after that we'll take a break, and then
I want to I want to hit on maybe some
teams that have maybe a handful of teams we think
have to get one specific thing accomplished or they are
and they're screwed. So they got to get one thing
for sure accomplished in this draft. But let's let's start
things off once you tell me a little bit about
this article, how you stumbled upon it and what you learned.
Speaker 2 (08:42):
Okay, so, DJ, we had that that time of the year,
and I don't know if you do this, but this
is a time where you start reading material because I'm
just trying to figure out, like you just don't want
to miss anybody.
Speaker 3 (08:52):
Is there something that I miss?
Speaker 2 (08:53):
Is your name that I miss, is there some kind
of trend that is kind of emerging that I'm not
aware of? And so I find this piece in The
Athletic Dana Roussini was a part of the group that
they came up with it, and was the bus rate
of first round receivers. And the article kind of broke
it down in four different categories, but the thing that
stood out to me was reaches and bust And I
(09:17):
think it was like since twenty eleven they had gone
through done all the research and kind of gone through
all the first round receivers and kind of put them
in a category and the number was astonishing based on
like the reach and the bus rate they combined. For
about sixty three percent of those first round receivers were
viewed as either reaches or busts. And to me it
kind of woke me up. I was like, WHOA, that's
(09:39):
a significant number. Given what we talked about the first round.
The first round is kind of like a fifty to
fifty bus rate the way that we talk about whether
you can get like a starter, a star, someone that's
a fringe player or whatever. But as much as we've
talked about the wide receivers and how deep the wide
receivers are and this class and loaded in all of
(10:01):
these things. It kind of brought me back to that
point where it is so deep. I wonder if people
are missing the boat by ignoring the first round and
maybe focusing on finding their wide receivers and stuff in
the second round, where maybe the risk comes down because
the amount of money invested kind of goes down, and
(10:21):
it gives you an opportunity maybe to find those value
prices because coming from the Green Bay thing, like that's
what green Bay has always done. They kind of stayed
away from the first round, but they've been able to
find starters that have emerged as Star Plus's second, third,
fourth round.
Speaker 1 (10:37):
All right, let's let's just do a little project. Then
let's go let's not let's go where we have a
little more data, so let's not do last year. Okay,
so let's go to twenty two, and I want to
do two different things here. Look at we can say
maybe somebody who hasn't worked out and hasn't been maybe
as valued as where they were picked in the first round.
And then I want to just give you the names
(10:58):
of the guys who went in the second round to
just see what caliber of player is there if you
elected to pass on that option. All right, all right,
let's jump into it here. Let's go. Uh So twenty
twenty two. Drake London, we would say is a hit, right, Yeah,
Garrett Wilson's a hit. Chris o'lave is a hit. That's
three for three on those guys. Yeah, Jamison, Jamison Williams
(11:20):
hasn't you know, he's flashed off the injury suspend I
can't ski.
Speaker 2 (11:24):
Yeah, I can't call him a thing. He'd be more incomplete,
but he wouldn't be a bust because.
Speaker 1 (11:28):
He's not a bust. Johan Dotson, you know, I think
he's I think he's trending in the right direction.
Speaker 3 (11:36):
He's fine.
Speaker 1 (11:37):
I don't think they hit a home run. Traylon Burks
has not worked out so far. So that's your first rounder.
So let's just let's just say, you know, Williams Dotson,
I still think we're.
Speaker 3 (11:51):
To home one there, something like that. So it would be.
Speaker 1 (11:55):
Drake, Garrett Olave. So that's three for sures, and then
that's two solids and then one who hasn't really hasn't
got it yet. Yeah, we're worried about a little bit.
So then but if I give you the names in
the second round there and I'll just run through them,
it's Wandale Rominson, John Metchi, Taekwon Thornton, George Pickens, Alec Pierce,
(12:17):
sky Moore. Those are your second round picks.
Speaker 3 (12:21):
None of those really excited me.
Speaker 1 (12:22):
DJ Yeah, not the sexiest group.
Speaker 3 (12:25):
None of those really excited me.
Speaker 1 (12:27):
Let's move back, well just just a few years twenty one,
Jamar Chase home run, Waddle home run, DeVante Smith just
got paid home run. So what we're seeing, at least
early on, is those top three guys in those two
classes have been home runs.
Speaker 2 (12:41):
That yeah, separators, Yeah, the separated so and I think
in the art of the contention was if you draft
one into top ten, they're more likely to hit. It's
the guys that are later the bottom of the first
round in the teens in twenties where you have some
of that.
Speaker 1 (12:56):
M Yeah, well that's that's what we're getting because Cadarius
Tony was a miss at twenty. Rashad Bateman hasn't lived
up to where he was picked there, inconsistent he was
twenty seven. So then you go to the second round
guys Elijah Moore, Rondell Moore, Dwayne Eskridge to two at well,
Terrence Marshall. That's not a great group there either, you know,
(13:18):
not a great group. So it's like, so anyways, well
let's let's do one more year then we'll circle back.
So then we go to twenty twenty, which was the
huge wide receiver year. Henry Ruggs was the first one.
Obviously nobody for.
Speaker 2 (13:33):
Said was It's almost it's almost like it almost like
you got to give them incomplete because that's an off
the field thing, but on the with.
Speaker 1 (13:41):
A guy who had no no character issues coming out either.
So I don't know how you could have foreseen that.
Speaker 2 (13:46):
No, I mean, there was no trail, no Brad Crunch
to show you that this is what was going going
to happen.
Speaker 1 (13:52):
And I think his I think as a player he
was you know, he was he was starting to show
signs he was going to be pretty good.
Speaker 2 (13:58):
Yes, yeah, he has some big some big plays. He
was showing those things. So we throw Rugs to the side.
Speaker 1 (14:04):
Yeah, put Ruggs off to the side here, Jerry Judy. No,
he's already on another team.
Speaker 2 (14:10):
But again, fifteen I know, another team, another team on
a big contract.
Speaker 3 (14:14):
But you're right, fifteenth pick.
Speaker 2 (14:16):
He certainly in Denver, did not live up or play
up to expectations.
Speaker 3 (14:20):
He was supposed to be the guy.
Speaker 2 (14:21):
You would think that he would have taken the number
one role particilely from courting sudden that never materialized.
Speaker 1 (14:27):
Ceedee Lamb home run, Jalen Rager with Justin Jefferson home
run Brandon Ayuku. I would say home run for where
he was picked there at twenty fifteen, for sure. So
the guys that missed there, you've got off the field
issue with Rugs, You've got Rager. He's a little stiff
speed receiver.
Speaker 2 (14:48):
Just never worked out. Miss just a mis evaluation, like
we just missed.
Speaker 1 (14:52):
What about Jerry Judy. Jerry Judy is the one that
I probably have the toughest time reconciling why that didn't
work out.
Speaker 2 (14:59):
I like ad I liked him a lot coming out.
I don't know why it didn't work out, Like I
don't know if like fit in scheme. I mean he
had flashes, but you remember the first year he had
a series of drops and that it never well take
that back. I maybe ignored the drops that he may
have had at Alabama. I think you came back and
pointed out like no, like, remember at Alabama, he had
(15:21):
a few bobbles and drops in those things. He had
drops that first year. Remember then the second year he
came back and was okay, but it just never really
clicked or popped for him as a number one. And
so I'll say some of is the players. Some of
it is also like scheme deployment in those things, but
it never really worked.
Speaker 3 (15:41):
Was it three two different coaches or three different coaches in.
Speaker 1 (15:44):
Three years through it?
Speaker 3 (15:46):
Yeah?
Speaker 1 (15:47):
Three? I think, right y, yeah, three three, three different coaches.
So we go to the second round that year of
that deep class. Michael Pittman, Janault, kJ Hammler, Claypool, Van Van, Jefferson,
Denzel Fuck. I'm looking at that going what we've looked
on for just a three year sample size. I'm saying
that a frek I'd be more scared to take it
(16:07):
one in the second round than I would in the first.
Speaker 2 (16:09):
Yeah. I think what this exercise has done. It sounds
nice in theory to talk about the second round and
third round receivers, but it is a noticeable divide between
like the top top guys and the overwhelming majority of
the guys that were taken in the second round. The
guys at the top of the the top of the draft,
(16:30):
the wide receivers at the top of the charts. The
hit rate on those guys has been pretty good. If
you look at where those guys, particularly if they grade
out as a top ten talent, those guys have all
played and played pretty well. You haven't had many errors
when you've drafted someone in the top ten who's had
that kind of considerable talents.
Speaker 1 (16:51):
Yeah. Man, it's interesting, and I'm going through the third
round and it's not great there. It's almost to me
like the receiver position is so deep of names and
everything that like if you get one of the premier guys,
get one of the premier guys, but after that, you're
almost almost, hey, I'm gonna take I'm gonna take two
of them in like the fourth and fifth round, like
fourth or sixth round. Just take some flyers on some
(17:13):
guys in that range.
Speaker 2 (17:14):
So here's the funny thing. I had this conversation, uh,
with a long time personnel executive, Like this was like
a year or so ago, and they were saying that
with the I guess the explosion of the spread offense
at the collegiate level and how the college game is
so vastly different than the pro game. It doesn't matter
whether you take a receiver in the first, second, fourth,
the the bus rate and the challenge of getting them
(17:36):
ready to play is the same because most of these
guys have never taken in a play from the huddle.
They've all looked to the sideline to look at the placards.
They have rarely played in a pro style offense that's
required them to run pro routes, and so the learning
curve is the same for everybody no matter where they
come in, and it might explain why sometimes we'll see
a third or fourth round or a guy like a
(17:58):
Puka Nakua emerge while a first rounder or a hot
second rounder struggles because it's still the same. So regardless
of your talent, the acclimation to the game is a
huge transition because the game at the pro level is
so different than the collegiate game that we're seeing.
Speaker 1 (18:16):
So hear me out on this one. Then, if you're
if what we're looking at is the guys you take
up in the top ten, the premier guys, it's a
very high batting average, right, And if we're saying, look
what the wide receivers are making DeVante Smith's new deal.
I think it's twenty five million a year. So if
we're going to say, like, what's the most bang for
your buck while also being somewhat safe, right, like not missing.
Speaker 3 (18:39):
Top ten, top ten receiver.
Speaker 1 (18:41):
I keep coming back to sitting there thinking, we've got teams.
You know, We've got Arizona, We've got the Chargers, we've
got the Giants, four, five, six, And I remember we
did that. Remember the first mock drafts we were doing.
We were like, we're gonna have receivers go four, five
and six. And now when you look back on it
and you're taking this information, it's like, man, that's a
(19:01):
not only a great player, it's a great value and
it's a low risk.
Speaker 2 (19:06):
You better, you better grab him early, because like as
much as we talked about, hey, Arizona, you trade down,
get a bunch of picks and this, and that you
come back and get your need, the odds suggests that
you're not going to fill.
Speaker 3 (19:17):
It, that you're not you're not gonna get the same
kind of player.
Speaker 2 (19:20):
And it's funny, how like when you read those names
off now where we're not emotionally attached to them, in
this draft class. None of those names were like ooh,
I got it.
Speaker 3 (19:30):
I have to get him. Uh, Nobille put one aim
in like Christian Watson.
Speaker 1 (19:36):
But he's been good. He hasn't been.
Speaker 2 (19:38):
Yeah, like he's the only one. But like, I just
want to give no Bill like a little credit. He
chimed in with his packer love. So I want to
make sure that it was recognized. But I think now,
when you take away the emotional part of looking at
those guys that were taken in the second and third.
Speaker 3 (19:54):
Round, maybe we over value those guys.
Speaker 2 (20:00):
Take and like, for instance, like yesterday, I spent a
lot of time looking at Jermaine Burton, right, I was
looking at Jamain Burn because I'm trying to figure out, like, okay,
which of these second and third round guys is going
to be the one that gives you the tank deal stuff?
Speaker 3 (20:12):
Right, So I'm looking at him. I'm like, all right, man,
I'm excited.
Speaker 2 (20:14):
Like he's averaged over twenty yards per catch last year,
he's averaging the high teens for most of his career
at Georgia, at Bama.
Speaker 3 (20:21):
He has speed, he has all this other stuff.
Speaker 2 (20:24):
But I'm like, okay, you give me these second round
names like what separates him from Escridge, what separates him
from Scott Moore, We separates him from you know, some
of the other guys that haven't had the burst in
those things. And I think it requires everybody to do
a deeper dive in terms of what really plays, not
(20:44):
what plays at the position, but what impact.
Speaker 3 (20:48):
Players are at the position.
Speaker 2 (20:49):
What are the common traits where you're getting the impact
players that are drafted outside of the first round, and
can we find any of those guys? Everyone's excited about
poking the cool and so now the conversation has been
how were we gonna find the next one?
Speaker 3 (21:03):
But the Jay I've said this and we've talked about it.
Speaker 2 (21:07):
As much as we love to find the hidden gems
in the draft, this league is a first and second
round league. It's a league where when you look at
the Pro Bowl list and those things, those lists are
littered with typically first and second rounds and really first rounders.
And so when we talk about the first round of
the draft, you better make sure that you get it
right in the first round because those are the guys
(21:27):
that are typically going to be the impact players on
your team and the ones that last for the longest
time in the league.
Speaker 1 (21:33):
No question. Well, it's a fun conversation. It's a great point.
I'm glad you brought that up. Fun to dig into
that one. Let's say quick break, we'll come back. We'll
identify a couple of teams that have a a must
do list, not a to du list, a must do list.
I don't get to that right after this, All right, Buck,
let's do uh, let's do two teams in each conference,
(21:56):
so just four total teams here, teams that have something
that they absolutely must get accomplished in this draft. So
if we're gonna start in the AFC, I'll give you
some time to think here, and I'll give you mine
of a team that has to get something accomplished. I'm
gonna go to the I'm gonna go to the Pittsburgh
Steelers here. Maybe a little bit of off the grid.
(22:20):
When you look at the Pittsburgh Steelers, they made the
two moves, right, You get Russell Wilson, you get Justin Fields,
but they trade Deontay Johnson. You know, George Pickens, it
seems like has been somewhat in the doghouse out of
the doghouse during his time there. I just look at
that and and I go, okay, I like, you know,
(22:40):
low cost editions of quees, Watkins and Van Jefferson, But
there is not enough here offensively at that position. There
is not enough firepower, especially in the AFC that's as
stacked as it is. They to me have. And I
don't know if it's at twenty. You know, we've talked
about offensive line for them. Potentially maybe they go in
(23:01):
another direction. They need some impact. They didn't impact receiver
man ad mm so.
Speaker 2 (23:06):
So what I'm hearing is you're saying you want to
try it out. Brian Thomas Jr. And George Pickens uh
two long striders.
Speaker 1 (23:14):
They side with Russell Wilson and launching rainbows out there
and justin fields.
Speaker 2 (23:20):
So as we're thinking about it, they talked about being
more committed to the running game. We're gonna run the football.
Arthur Smith comes in there. You think about, okay, let's
how do we build this offense. Even though we're saying
Russell maybe on a short term plan. What did Russell
have when he was at his best right? And so
then you look at, oh, he had a long receiver
like DK Metcalf when he was throwing those deep balls,
frying him down the field. He had fast athletic guys
(23:42):
like Tyler Lockett, he had Doug Ball when he was crafty.
He looked he did a lot with your main curse
on the outside, like he's had some bigger guys. So
maybe that is the way to stillers go saying, hey,
we'll get outside. We can come back and get an
interior block, a tackle or whatever in the second round
and be able to do it because you're right this division,
(24:03):
we talk about building your team to win the division.
This division, the Cincinnati Bengals, look, they have firepower on offense,
You're gonna have to be able to outscore. Then when
it comes to Joe Burrow, the Cleveland Browns arguably have
the best roster in the division. And then you know,
look Baltimore Lamar Jackson coming off MVP season, they're still
looking to flip the wide receiver room to make this
offense probably more modern or more past centric. You better
(24:26):
have enough fire priwer because you're not gonna be able
to keep the points down. You got to be able
to kind of put points on the board.
Speaker 1 (24:31):
And I know people are going to say, you guys
just did a whole segment on receivers and risk outside
the top ten. But I'm sitting here going, well, there
have been some exceptions, and you're hoping for one here
justin Jefferson, there's a home run of home runs. Maybe
you've got to go shopping at the same store, Buck.
Maybe you got to go back to LSU and go
grab Brian Thomas if he gets in range. I don't
(24:52):
know he's going to get there, but that'd be awfully
hard to turn down, knowing the lack of firepower they
have on the outside.
Speaker 2 (24:59):
Yeah, no, they have to do it because they have
forever moved on the inside. They have George Pickens, but
is he ready to be the number one receiver? I
believe they moved Deontay Johnson out of there just because, look,
you no longer a fit. I would say maybe culturally,
like there were some things that kind of emerged, like
maybe he and George Pickens just you know, maybe some
of the selfishness to Anti just didn't work for the team.
(25:20):
Maybe you just kind of reset the position trying and
find another playmaker that you compare opposite George Pickens.
Speaker 1 (25:26):
All right, so give me a team here, a team
in the AFC. One one particular thing they've got to
get done, could be obvious, could be off the.
Speaker 3 (25:36):
Bills, the Buffalo Bills. I mean, so here here's my
thing with the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo Bills.
Speaker 2 (25:42):
At the bottom of the first round, you got rid
of your number one receiver and Stefan Diggs. I mean,
you really don't have another guy in the building, Gabby Davis. Yeah,
you let him walk out. I mean last year you
brought Dalton Kin Caden, so you solid at tight end.
But what are we doing on the outside. How are
we going to win If we're counting on Josh Allen
to do Patrick Mahomes like things.
Speaker 3 (26:03):
Man, what are the receivers that are gonna help him
do that?
Speaker 2 (26:06):
You know, because we can't just have him running around
making plays and doing it in a Sandloi fashion. They
have to find some route runners, some guys that consistently
get open and do it. And DJ the problem that
you have is you're sitting down there at the bottom
of the first round. We talked about the bus rate
increasingly increasing significantly when you're in the twenties, and so
(26:27):
if we take Brian Thomas off the board and we
got a d Mitchell, I mean you talk about lab
of KANKI you talk about Keyan Coleman or whatever you
want to do it. Are we confident that we can
identify the guy at the bottom of the first round
that is kind of like the sleeper pick that's going
to emerge as a number one receiver.
Speaker 1 (26:44):
Yeah, that's a great point. And I think they picked sixty, right,
that's their second round pick. Yeah, so yeah, I'll be
interesting to see if they go with one of these.
They got a lot of holes. Man, It's not even
just that wide receiver position. There's so many other holes
that they've got to fill.
Speaker 2 (27:00):
I mean, look, it's not only just wide receiver, both safeties, secondary.
Speaker 3 (27:08):
You lose Leonard Floyd, you need another pass rusher. I'm
be honest.
Speaker 1 (27:13):
I don't love I don't love the offensive line.
Speaker 3 (27:16):
I mean, I'm be honest with you.
Speaker 2 (27:17):
A team that is has been heled as a Super
Bowl contended for the last two three years, you're looking
at the roster as president constructed, You're almost seeing no way.
There's no way they're gonna be able to do it
unless they are able to get some blue chip players
to come in there. Because they're strapped from the cap standpoint,
and so This is really hard. It's gonna be a
challenge for Brandon being a company to be able to
get this one right.
Speaker 1 (27:39):
Yeah, I'm with you. When I go to another team
here in the let's go over to the NFC. Will
each pick a team here in the NFC that has
something to get accomplished. This one, I mean, it's not
going to be addressed in the first round. But if
you looked at the Dallas Cowboys running back depth chart,
not good. Their starter is not on their team right
(27:59):
now now, I'm right, right now.
Speaker 2 (28:01):
Theyre talking about Deuce Faon, They're talking about having a
reunion with Ezekiel Elliott and those things. But DJ, I'm
gonna say this, and it's common. It has always been
the thing for the Dallas Cowboys. When you look at
the Cowboys when they've been at their best, they have
stood running back behind that Dak presk I mean, I
mean you go back to DeMarco Murray, who wasn't with
(28:21):
Dak Prescott, but they had a legitimate running back to
compliment the quarterback. So Murray, Ezekiel Elliott, they have to
go and get a Baill cow The issue that I
have I look at this draft, I don't. I don't
know if I see one, you know, I don't know
if I see one that can come and save the day.
And on path today I was like, oh, yeah, Trey Benson,
(28:42):
you know, but Trey Benson doesn't have like that kind
of pedigree on paper.
Speaker 3 (28:46):
To say that he can be that DJ. I don't know.
Speaker 2 (28:49):
So we say they got to get a bail cow
running back. If you're pressed right now, and they're like,
hey man, you got fifteen seconds to pick a running
back for the Dallas Cooutboys.
Speaker 3 (28:56):
Who would be the.
Speaker 1 (28:57):
Pick I'm taking Marshawn Lloyd. That's who I'm taking from USC.
I think, you know to me, when you look at it,
there's a four or five of them that are kind
of similarly graded. Benson's in that mix as well. If
you're Dallas. Here's the decision that Dallas is. This is
the toughest decision they're going to have to make. They're
not going to take one with the twenty fourth pick,
(29:18):
but they have to decide fifty six. They might have
their choice of any of them, right they get their
top guy. Did they sit there and say, well, between
fifty six in the second round, we pick eighty seven
in the third round. Is the run gonna finish before
we get to eighty seven? Like, say we have five
running backs, we like they're all there at fifty six.
(29:41):
Is there a hope that we get one of them
there at eighty seven or do we get I don't
think they can gamble. I think they have to take
one at fifty six.
Speaker 3 (29:48):
I think it has to be a second round pick.
Speaker 2 (29:51):
I think they have to position themselves say we don't
really want to take a pick and knee, but in
the second round they have say we committed taking a
running back, and depending on how the draft is breaking,
all of a sudden, there's a little run that starts
taking place at forty five. A man, we gotta get up.
We gotta make sure we get a running back. And
I would say this DJ, I think they need too.
I think they have to double up. I think they
(30:11):
need to take one in the second round to come
back in the fourth or fifth round and take another one.
You know, someone that can play, maybe you go to
the sixth round. They need to see if they can
find a hidden gym that can emerge as a guy
that can be a legitimate workhorse running back for him.
I don't like the committee situation, even though everyone is
going to it, I believe they need someone who opponents
fear so that can alleviate some of the pressure on
(30:32):
Dak Prescott.
Speaker 1 (30:33):
Yeah. No, it's going to be fascinating there. All right,
you're the last one here. Give me one more team
in the NFC that you think has something that they
absolutely must get accomplished in this draft class.
Speaker 2 (30:45):
Okay, so my initial inkling was to talk about the
Minnesota Vikings and quarterback, but I don't know if that's
necessarily true. I'm not a Sam Donald apologist, but I
feel like they have enough that they should be able
to kind of get.
Speaker 1 (30:58):
If Sam can't do with this group, then it's not
going to happen. So what's our last hope for those
of us that are still still waving the flag? Was
just like this is the last shot here.
Speaker 3 (31:07):
It's all over. So here's what I'm saying.
Speaker 2 (31:09):
I'm gonna say the Atlanta Falcons finding a pass rush.
And the reason why because on paper, the Atlanta Falcons
look like they should be ready to go with Kirk Cousins,
that Kirk Cousins should be able to put this team
in a position to get the ten by himself in
terms of like what they have on offense, be John
Robinson running back straight London. Hopefully they'll finally get the
ball to col Pits and they should be able to
(31:31):
go to got Darniel Muney. So offensively they're good. But
to win in this league, if you have a good offense,
you got to have closers. I don't know who their
closers are. So can they get the closer at pick
eight and they find someone that can give them double
digit sacks that you can count on? And remember, Man,
the Falcons, it's kind of been a black hole for
pass rushers. They like, they've tried this the last three,
(31:53):
four or five years. They haven't been able to get it.
They have to find a legitimate high end pass rush.
Speaker 1 (31:58):
They're picking up there at eight. They're going to have
more than likely their choice of any of them. So
they're all going to be there for them. They just
got to pick the right one. But that I think
that's a no brainer. I like that one, all right.
Speaker 3 (32:09):
Buck.
Speaker 1 (32:09):
That's that's all we've got for today. Anything else you
want to get into before we get out of.
Speaker 2 (32:12):
Here, Man, ten days, ten days we can have before
the draft goes when you leave to go.
Speaker 1 (32:16):
To Detroit Sunday. I think I head out there Sunday,
so I'll be out there all week. So I haven't
even looked at a weather report yet. I don't know
what we're looking at. I guess could kind of go
either way that part of the country during this time
of the year. So hope for the best. They're say
you that much, I will say I've I've changed over
the years. I used to I used to go full
suits at these things, and then I realized, there's the
(32:38):
days are so long and you're sitting at a desk
the whole time. So I've kind of more I mean,
not like jeans, but the you know, more of those
athletic pants, you know, like golf pants. Yeah, that's I
went to the store this weekend, loaded up on a
couple more of those. I got, got comfortable shoes. Gotta
have the comfortable shoes, comfortable pants, and then everything up
here is business. We're acts down below.
Speaker 2 (33:01):
We're a TV anchorman, Yeah, TV anchorman. We're sports anchor
in a KKL.
Speaker 3 (33:08):
Kt l A. We're doing it. We're making sure that
we looked apart up top.
Speaker 1 (33:12):
Don't comfortable be comfortable, long day.
Speaker 3 (33:15):
Super long day, so it should be fun.
Speaker 1 (33:18):
Yeah, looking forward to it all right. I hope you
guys enjoyed this one. We appreciate you leaving us ratings
and reviews, especially during this time. You're getting the word out.
If you haven't done that already, we encourage you to
do so we will see you next time. We've got
a couple more episodes coming this week. We've got I've
got a conference call episode Buck. Then we've got our
friend Times is going to join us. So three episodes
(33:39):
this week with a stick. So appreciate everybody hanging with us,
and we'll see you next time.
Speaker 3 (33:42):
Writing
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