Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Sciding for this conversation considering how good baseball has been
especially as of late. JP Hornstra, national bas writer baseball
writer from Newsweek joins us year on Exus and Bros.
You can fall on Twitter at JP Hornstraw with two ohs. Jp,
thanks for the time. We appreciate you getting up early
and making some time for our audience. Tigers and Astros
with a hell of a game last night. It's been
(00:21):
a nice run for Detroit as of late. From an
outsider's perspective, what's your take on Detroit their strengths, their weaknesses,
and their possibility of moving forward in the postseason.
Speaker 2 (00:34):
Yeah, well, I'll start with the last point. I don't
see a favorite in the American League still. I think
that the postseason is kind of a crapshoot as it
is anyway, that's just kind of the way it's been.
We've seen some years recently where the favorite has gone
all the way to the World Series. We've seen some
(00:54):
other years in the last three seasons where you can
go out and win one hundred games and get eliminated
in the first round. And so I think even if
the Tiger's finished strong, I like their chances as well
as the other al teams of representing the league in
the World Series. As far as some weaknesses go, you know,
it's it's a deeper team than they were last year.
(01:16):
You know, I think last year that playoff run caught
a lot of people by surprise. But you know, you
bring in some outside editions like Labor Tours, who's having
a strong season. For the most part, you see the
development of some of your own players. I feel like
I'm watching a Riley Green highlight like every night. It's
(01:39):
just been so fun to watch those young players develop,
and that's how you do it. You know, they've really
followed the textbook. I know they didn't have maybe the
largest trade deadline of any team, but for the most part,
I think they've been really textbook from a team building standpoint.
Aj hanch is doing a great job as always, and
it's a fun team to watch. I like their chances. Yeah,
(02:03):
I do too.
Speaker 1 (02:04):
I guess I do wonder like you, if there is
a favorite, who would it be if it's not Detroit?
And why would it be if it's not Detroit.
Speaker 2 (02:16):
Yeah, if it's not Detroit, I always think I always
look at that Seattle pitching staff on paper and go, well,
this team should win. This is not the team you
want to face in the postseason. And then you look
at the additions that they've made to their lineup this year,
and like, again, on paper, that's a team that should
(02:36):
win it. I just think they've never done it before.
They've literally never done it before. And I don't know
how much of the factor that is. You know, when
the Arizona Diamondbacks upset the Dodgers a couple of years ago,
they was a young team that hadn't done it before either,
and they weren't the favorites, but they made it all
the way to the World Series. The Texas Rangers literally
(03:00):
never won a World Series in their existence, and they
did it a couple of years ago. That was a
bit of a surprise. So the team that should win
on paper, the team that has the most postseason experience
on paper, and the team that have the most wins
in the regular season, it doesn't matter. That's why I
say the postseason is a crapshoot. Having said all of that,
(03:21):
I don't want to face the Mariners. If I'm the
Tigers or any other American League.
Speaker 1 (03:26):
Team, I'm with you. I love their starting staff JP Hornstraw,
national baseball writer for Newsweek, Joiner and is here on
the Lindsay Hunter Foundation guest line. What do you think
is most important at this time of the year. We
were getting toward that, you know, that that finish line,
if you will. What is it you're looking for to
(03:46):
be convinced on a team at this time of the season.
Speaker 2 (03:51):
Hell, that's really what it comes down to, you know.
And it's really it's not just who's on the active
roster and who's on the inen list. It's who is
trying to push through an injury in October or I'm sorry,
in August, in September, and is that going to hurt
(04:11):
them in October? Right? Because there are most a veteran
player told me once, everybody is dealing with something at
this time of year. There's some ailment, whether it's got
them on the injured list or not. They're all hurt, right,
So are you doing are you playing through it to
your own detriment? And if you are a team that
(04:32):
has comprised a lot of banged up better in players
trying to push through injuries just to make it into
the postseason, frankly, I don't like your chances in October
will matter how many wins you're racking up on paper
in August and September. It's just that's not a good
formula for success. And then there are other teams who
(04:54):
and we've seen this with older teams like the Yankees
and the Dodgers, who are you know, really kind of
built in order to weather injuries. But then you hear
the managers say, up so and so back in September,
or no, we're counting on so and so coming back
healthy for the postseason, and until it happens, until that
player actually comes back and shows that they can produce
(05:16):
the level for the current of the injury, you know,
that's that guy just exists on paper, not in reality,
and particularly when you consider that the minor league seasons
end earlier in September than the major league regular season.
If you're not back by early September, you don't have
(05:36):
any rehab games available team. So these teams, especially in
a bunch of up American League, especially International League, where
first second place for the most part, haven't been decided
to yet, you know, we gotta we got to save
these guys, and until we do that, those injuries can
make a big difference.
Speaker 1 (05:58):
I think I get a little frustrated with myself and
others when we just don't seem to learn, like we've
watched baseball before, we do for the most part outside
of Colorado, this year team is going to win sixty
games and they're probably going to lose sixty games. That
for as good as the Dodgers were a year ago,
they did lose, you know, sixty plus games. So knowing that,
(06:19):
when are we convinced? When is it we look at
a team and we say, yeah, I think that's who
you are. So that's why I'm glad you brought up Seattle.
Everybody is focused on the Yankees, and the Yankees are
just they're okay, they're a good team, but they shouldn't
get any more headlines more than Toronto, Detroit to Seattle,
maybe even Houston. Then, of course, we haven't even touched
(06:40):
the National League. So when do we know? When when
do we what? Are we convinced? Do you think?
Speaker 2 (06:46):
That's a great question, and I think the answer is
changed as we've seen teams go to more of an
NBA style loop management program for certain players. And when
I say certain players, it's mostly right. There's a reason
that so few pictures qualify for the era title anymore.
There's a reason starters rarely go more than seven innings
(07:09):
in a game, and when they do that, it's a
major accomplishment. Right. And if you look at the team
I was doing this with exercise as the Dodgers recently,
if you look at who was pitching the majority of
their innings, how the innings were divided, they were basically
to pick different pitching staff in April and in May,
and in June and in July. And so you asked me, well,
(07:32):
when do we know who a team is which month? Yeah? Right,
because the team that is on the field in April
might not be the same team that's on the field
in September. And forget the trade thatmine. I'm just talking
about the guys who are on the active roster and
on the injured list and in the minor leagues. Because
the way, especially release pitchers are shuttled back and forth
(07:53):
from the majors to the minors these days, just in
the name of preserving innings, it really makes every team
a different team. Last year just lesst with health. Now,
I will say this about the central teams, and this
is born out over time. Is that the relative lack
(08:13):
of travel among the teams in the central divisions compared
to the teams on the coasts has been an asset
for them that has allowed them to stay generally healthier.
And so like, when do we know who the Yankees
are when we never know who the Hikes are Because
they're an older team, they rely on veterans, they relying
on free agents, and those guys need more rests in general.
(08:35):
And I think it's a credit to them that they
are aware of that and try to do something about it.
But I think as a fan it's frustrating because you
literally don't know who they're going to be for months
to months, and the fact that you don't play good
fund the metal baseball again makes them even harder to watch.
Speaker 1 (08:53):
Yeah, and yet they've won seven to ten, they've won
four in a row. They just leave frog Boston. So
they are are constantly seemingly trying to defy what we
think they are in changing our minds on a regular basis.
Last night, Detroit drew well over thirty thousand. They're going
to draw over two million, which is pretty damn good
(09:13):
for the city of Detroit, which begs the question from
people you know, spending money. Trek's scouble we know in
two years will be a free agent, knowing that Scott
Boris is his agent, and he takes his guys to
free agency for the most part, and the Tigers have
not been a team that has been willing to spend
as much as we would like them to spend. Knowing
(09:33):
all that, what do your sources tell you about if
at all, because it's still a year away, about Trek's
Schoubel long term in Detroit compared to someplace else.
Speaker 2 (09:47):
Well, the two things, independent of anything that my sources
are telling me. How often do starting pitchers sign long
term contracts?
Speaker 1 (09:56):
Well, I mean Garrett Colebred and that's a Max Sure's
or just I mean there's there's the elite ones do.
Speaker 2 (10:05):
Yeah, but pre free agency, pre free agency teams are
very little intent to give starting pitchers long term contracts.
One of the very few excepts that was Spencer Strider
in Atlanta and he signed a long term contract extension
and right away not hurt. Yeah, And I think that
(10:26):
if that fear existed in the minds of a lot
of executives prior to Strider signing that extension and getting
hurt what's happened since he signed that extension has not
helped the case of any executives being more motivated to
extend that offer. Now, I will say this, You know, Strider,
(10:47):
when he's right, is probably in a group of maybe
the top five starting pitchers in baseball, and Schoogle's definitely
in that group. So he's one of the guys that
you would think to do that for. But let's put
it this way. The reason that so few players do
sign those long term deals before they reach free agency.
(11:07):
We've spent a few more in recent years, all allow that.
But but you know, the reason is is that they
know they can get more generally speaking, if they allow
the full six years to pass and they test the
market right, and then other teams are bidding on them. And
I think that if you're a general manager and you're
trying your best to assess the risk of your picture
getting hurt, knowing that just by being a pitcher, he's
(11:31):
already hurting his chances of staying healthy, that's going to
affect the offer that you get. And maybe you offer
an incentive waiting contract that says, well, if you pitch
this many well and off this kind of a bonus. Well,
if I'm Tark Schoogle, I don't want that. I just
want to reach free agency. So having said that, you know,
(11:53):
I haven't heard anything about Schoogle specifically either receiving an
offer finding one. But just if you look at the pattern,
very few pictures get those offers. And also if you
look at the pattern, the track record of starting Pitcher
health suggests that if he can stay healthy, he'll get
a much better deal if he do US for full
(12:13):
six years than her market.
Speaker 1 (12:15):
Yeah, makes a lot of sense. JP Hornster joining us
the national baseball writer for Newsweek, fall him on Twitter
at jp Hornstra. On the Lindsay Hunter Foundation guest line,
the suggestion from the commissioner to expand wherever that may be, Nashville, Carolina, Portland,
whatever it may be, has been met, I think with
mixed reviews. I'm totally against it. I think there's too
(12:38):
many teams right now. What are your thoughts on the
possible expansion and then realignment that would follow.
Speaker 2 (12:46):
Yeah, I feel like we've been talking about this for
a while, and she rob Manfick's credit. I don't think
he made it sound any more inevitable than he has
since he took over as commissioner. It's contingent on getting
these you know, realignment, this contingent on expansion and expansion
(13:08):
is contingent on getting the day's settled in Las Vegas
and getting the race settled in their new stadium, wherever
it might be. How often has it seemed like those
situations were just about to be resolved. You've seen the
blueprints for the ballpark, the local leaders that are holding
shovels or cut and red tape or doing something, and
(13:29):
yet here we are, it's twenty twenty five, and we
still haven't seen a brick laid in Las Vegas, or
in Tampa or wherever that new ballpark might be. So
I think we are getting a little bit ahead of
ourselves in that regard. Having said that, if you look
at how long it's been since we've gotten the new
team in Major League Baseball, it's been twenty seven years,
(13:53):
and that is actually, in the grand scheme of baseball history,
kind of a long time without expansion history suggests it
will happen. Well, when you look at the fact that
the National Hockey League has more teams than Major League Baseball,
that strikes me as a little odd just given the
economics of each sport. Nothing, they can't do it. Obviously,
(14:14):
it's a difference. You know, that's a salary can't be
league and they are I have on the controllers in
the way that Major League Baseball is not. But well,
let's get the as settle, let's get the race settled.
Let's get through this next labor negotiation first. Let's see
where the TV contracts land once you know all this
(14:34):
negotiation has been sorted out. I think fans who are
thinking about, well, we're being going to the team, how
many are you going to divide up the thirty two
team league some questions to ask, but I don't see
them as any less premature than they were let's say
two or three years ago.
Speaker 1 (14:49):
Yeah, that's that's a really good answer and good insight.
I would argue that there's too many teams in the
National Hockey League too, So I don't always use other
leagues as the example because I think there's just too much.
I don't think there's a good enough amount of talent personally,
that's just my opinion. But I would like to see
them peel back, but we both know that that will
never happen. Final thing before I let you go knowing that,
(15:14):
and do you think baseball is in a good place
right now? Do you think the schedule, the players, the
connection with owners, and things of that nature aren't a
good place Because I keep hearing so many people would
like they want their teams to spend a little bit
more money than what they're spending right now. I get
(15:36):
that there's no floor. Hockey has a floor, of course,
they have a cap. Baseball should have a floor. There
should be something that tells the Pirates and Guardians fans
and raised fans and El Tigers fans right now that
they should spend a certain amount of money. I doubt
that's ever going to get there. But what do you
think about where baseball is at right now with all
that included?
Speaker 2 (15:58):
Yeah, I think it's a good place In general. I
think the sport is pretty healthy from a financial standpoint.
I think it's a lot more watchable since they introduced
the pitchclock. It's really hard to talk about the help
of the sport without mentioning, you know what. You know
that pitchclock was seemingly done for attendance in person and
(16:18):
for ratings on television, and I think all of those
boxes are checked and it looks really healthy. But I
agree with you. I think there are ef there are
even two teams that aren't willing to spend the money
that they're making their roster. That's two cities arguably that
deserve a better owner, you know, And it's a shame
(16:39):
to see it in the city like Pittsburgh, which has
such a rich baseball history and which as recently as
ten years ago we had one of the better teams
in majuallygue caseball. You know, this happened within everybody's lifetime
pretty much, and that what happened there, Oh my goodness,
it's sad. It's truly sad Tark Schoogle because there's a
(17:02):
better team around him. And I don't know how you
affect that kind of change that we're talking about without
harder four. You're right, teams are required and a portion
of their income on you know, players and play payroll.
And I think that's part of the reason why you
saw the A's go out and sid Luis seven Reno
(17:23):
and signed Brett Rger to a contract extension and make
some of the moves that they did this past offseason.
Why the Pirates haven't done it, Why the Marlins haven't
done it. I don't know. The Marlins at least are
and always have been a very strong scouting team, so
they're able to develop from within. But the Pirates they
(17:44):
just I was looking recently at their position players, they
haven't developed it like a homegrown All star since I
think Brian Reynolds is the only one in like maybe
the last ten years.
Speaker 1 (17:53):
Yeah, it's because they draft like crap. I just I don't,
you know, Henry Davis just it just doesn't make a
lot of sense. But I mean, that's that's who they
are and that's the way they're going to be. And look,
I appreciate the insight very much. The only thing I'd
say about the pitch clock, and I mentioned this while
calling games for Tigers, I said, why didn't they implement
their rules before and just make it twelve seconds? We
(18:14):
needed a pitch clock. No, what we needed was umpires
actually adhering to the rule and making pitchers throw within
twelve seconds, which was not fifteen, it was twelve, and
they didn't do it. That could have been fixed a
while ago instead of a pitchclock. Because I'm not a
big pitchclock guy, but I understand why people like it
(18:36):
I just say the rule was in place. It was
in the rule book. You get twelve seconds when there's
nobody on base. They didn't do that. Had they done it, it
would have been fixed a long, long time ago. You've
got great stuff. I always enjoy our conversation. I know
you're busy. I really appreciate the time. Have a great
rest of the Major League Baseball season. We'll be following you, JP. Thanks,
thank you very much.
Speaker 2 (18:56):
Yeah, thank for having me.