September 25, 2024 • 8 mins
Hurricane Helene's storm surge is expected to follow the example of Idalia and other summer and winter storms and do some damage to Gulf beaches in Florida. The U.S. Geological Survey was predicting most beaches on Florida's west coast would be inundated by Helene, but the forecast looks better south of Tampa Bay. We speak with USGS's Kara Doran, who's actually based in St. Petersburg with the USGS Coastal and Marine Science Center. (Photo: NHC/NOAA)
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Gordon Bird Beyond the News. Hurricane Helene is going to
be moving up through the Gulf a few hours after
we record this, on its way to a landfall in
the Big Bend area somewhere between Tallahassee and Panama City.
As you can imagine, these storms have a serious effect
on the beaches and can cause problems totally inundating beaches
(00:25):
and that creates all kinds of problems for the beaches
and the nearby Barrier Island beach communities. Carara Dorn is
with us. She is with the US Geological Surveys, Coastal
and Marine Science Center, which is based right in Saint Petersburg,
so they have a vantage point to really a front
row seat to what's going to happen from Hurricane Helene
to Florida's beaches. Carara Doran, welcome to Beyond the News.
Speaker 2 (00:50):
Thank you Gordon for Biden mena speak with you now.
Speaker 1 (00:54):
There's obviously a lot of concern. A lot of communities
have dealt with recent hurricanes and tropical storms and winter storms,
have invested money in beach renourishment and the state and
federal governments are part of that as well, and there
could be we if I understand your forecast correctly, we
(01:14):
could be looking at more damage to beaches along Florida's
West coast from Hurricane Helene. Tell us what you are
seeing and forecasting.
Speaker 2 (01:27):
Sure. The USGS is responsible for forecasting potential coastal change
hazards to our open ocean sandy coast, which we have
a lot up here on our Florida West coast. And
so what we do is we take the elevations of
the beach and especially the elevations of our dunes because
(01:51):
those dunes are our protective feature against storm surge and waves,
and then we compare those doones with expected water levels Helene.
That includes tide and storm search, and then also the
impact of waves since we're on the open coast, so
that wave impact can also add you know, many feet
(02:13):
of water level at and also the waves are what
you know is eroding the sand from the beach. So
because of Helene's high storm search and large waves, we
were really predicting water levels to over top our tunes
due to Hurricane Helene and really cause extensive beach and
(02:37):
dune erosion.
Speaker 1 (02:38):
Now and earlier release put out Tuesday was calling for
as many as ninety four percent of Florida West coast
beaches to become inundated, and is there do you update
that forecast? Are there signs of possible improvement, possible mitigation
as the forecast track moves.
Speaker 2 (03:00):
Yes, thankfully. You know, as we get more clarity on
the track of Helene, the storm searge risk and the
inundation risk is lessening for areas sort of south of
Tampa Bay. So now we're looking at forty four percent
of our coast line with a high probability of of inundating. Unfortunately,
(03:24):
you know that it's still very high for Panella's County
because they're expecting you know, there's still a chance of
high storm search. And we do update that forecast as
conditions are changing. You know, as the Hurricane Center updates
their storm search forecast, we update our coastal change forecast
(03:45):
as well.
Speaker 1 (03:46):
But from the north of Panillas County, going up the coast,
toward the Big Bend and toward the expected landfall, you're
still expecting considerable and up there there aren't as many beaches.
Of course, there's a stretch basically from Torpen Springs to
the Dog Island area where there's it's not a beach
(04:06):
it's basically just a swamp that you have up there,
so there aren't beaches there to be damaged. But in
areas that do have beaches, you're expecting, I presume some
serious damage there.
Speaker 2 (04:22):
Yeah, that's a really great observation and you'll see, you know,
if you visit our USGS Coastal Change has its portal,
you can interact with these probabilities of coastal change for
your area of coast. But you'll notice a big area
is missing from you know, sort of Appalagicola all the
(04:43):
way down to to Honeymoon Island. And that's because we
don't really have a lot of beaches in that area.
But that's not to say that that they won't have
really severe and life threatenings surge coastal impacts there. But unfortunately,
our forecast really only applies to sort of those open
(05:09):
ocean beaches, so we don't have any information in our
forecast for that Goalst. Signe.
Speaker 1 (05:15):
Now, how does your information, the information that you provide
work into things like beach renourishment. Obviously they've had to
do that several times recently in Panela's County, and it
certainly looks possible that after Helene they may have to
do it again. What role does the information you provide
(05:37):
play in the way that communities and states and the
federal government manage our beaches.
Speaker 2 (05:45):
Sure, we always hope that we're providing science that can
assist with the decision making on how to best utilize
our coasts. And one thing that the USGS does is
UH as we have updated beach and June elevations, whether
(06:08):
that be from a led our survey, which is sort
of a way to measure topography, or we can also
derive elevations from aerial imagery surveys, we can provide those
updated elevations and we update the these probabilities of clastural
(06:28):
change UH based on those updated elevations. Unfortunately, we don't
yet have elevations updated in this forecast from the Panellas
County dune and beach reconstruction that happened, you know, sort
of finished very recently, So in fact, we might be overestimating,
(06:53):
you know, our probability of change because we don't have
that nice new, you know, ten foot tall dune that
was constructed along many of our local beaches. So we
do try to incorporate that information, that data as rapidly
as we can, but you know, these data that take
(07:14):
time process and analysts, and then after the storm we'll
likely go out and take more elevation measurements, and we
also are collecting wave and water level measurements. So along
the coast we have a couple of wave gauges out
(07:34):
and coastal cameras where we're monitoring what happens and we'll
be able to get that information to our local cultural
managers after the storm.
Speaker 1 (07:46):
Well, we're certainly hopeful that it turns out better than expected.
It's always good to be able to prepare for the
worst and then get something that's not the worst. So
we hope that you're right there. Carrat dooring with the
US Geological Survey Coastal and Marine Science Center based in
Saint Petersburg, talking about the potential impact to beaches from
(08:07):
Hurricane Helene. Thank you for joining us on Beyond the News.
Speaker 2 (08:12):
Thank you, Boren
Gordon Bird Beyond the News. Hurricane Helene is going to
be moving up through the Gulf a few hours after
we record this, on its way to a landfall in
the Big Bend area somewhere between Tallahassee and Panama City.
As you can imagine, these storms have a serious effect
on the beaches and can cause problems totally inundating beaches
(00:25):
and that creates all kinds of problems for the beaches
and the nearby Barrier Island beach communities. Carara Dorn is
with us. She is with the US Geological Surveys, Coastal
and Marine Science Center, which is based right in Saint Petersburg,
so they have a vantage point to really a front
row seat to what's going to happen from Hurricane Helene
to Florida's beaches. Carara Doran, welcome to Beyond the News.
Speaker 2 (00:50):
Thank you Gordon for Biden mena speak with you now.
Speaker 1 (00:54):
There's obviously a lot of concern. A lot of communities
have dealt with recent hurricanes and tropical storms and winter storms,
have invested money in beach renourishment and the state and
federal governments are part of that as well, and there
could be we if I understand your forecast correctly, we
(01:14):
could be looking at more damage to beaches along Florida's
West coast from Hurricane Helene. Tell us what you are
seeing and forecasting.
Speaker 2 (01:27):
Sure. The USGS is responsible for forecasting potential coastal change
hazards to our open ocean sandy coast, which we have
a lot up here on our Florida West coast. And
so what we do is we take the elevations of
the beach and especially the elevations of our dunes because
(01:51):
those dunes are our protective feature against storm surge and waves,
and then we compare those doones with expected water levels Helene.
That includes tide and storm search, and then also the
impact of waves since we're on the open coast, so
that wave impact can also add you know, many feet
(02:13):
of water level at and also the waves are what
you know is eroding the sand from the beach. So
because of Helene's high storm search and large waves, we
were really predicting water levels to over top our tunes
due to Hurricane Helene and really cause extensive beach and
(02:37):
dune erosion.
Speaker 1 (02:38):
Now and earlier release put out Tuesday was calling for
as many as ninety four percent of Florida West coast
beaches to become inundated, and is there do you update
that forecast? Are there signs of possible improvement, possible mitigation
as the forecast track moves.
Speaker 2 (03:00):
Yes, thankfully. You know, as we get more clarity on
the track of Helene, the storm searge risk and the
inundation risk is lessening for areas sort of south of
Tampa Bay. So now we're looking at forty four percent
of our coast line with a high probability of of inundating. Unfortunately,
(03:24):
you know that it's still very high for Panella's County
because they're expecting you know, there's still a chance of
high storm search. And we do update that forecast as
conditions are changing. You know, as the Hurricane Center updates
their storm search forecast, we update our coastal change forecast
(03:45):
as well.
Speaker 1 (03:46):
But from the north of Panillas County, going up the coast,
toward the Big Bend and toward the expected landfall, you're
still expecting considerable and up there there aren't as many beaches.
Of course, there's a stretch basically from Torpen Springs to
the Dog Island area where there's it's not a beach
(04:06):
it's basically just a swamp that you have up there,
so there aren't beaches there to be damaged. But in
areas that do have beaches, you're expecting, I presume some
serious damage there.
Speaker 2 (04:22):
Yeah, that's a really great observation and you'll see, you know,
if you visit our USGS Coastal Change has its portal,
you can interact with these probabilities of coastal change for
your area of coast. But you'll notice a big area
is missing from you know, sort of Appalagicola all the
(04:43):
way down to to Honeymoon Island. And that's because we
don't really have a lot of beaches in that area.
But that's not to say that that they won't have
really severe and life threatenings surge coastal impacts there. But unfortunately,
our forecast really only applies to sort of those open
(05:09):
ocean beaches, so we don't have any information in our
forecast for that Goalst. Signe.
Speaker 1 (05:15):
Now, how does your information, the information that you provide
work into things like beach renourishment. Obviously they've had to
do that several times recently in Panela's County, and it
certainly looks possible that after Helene they may have to
do it again. What role does the information you provide
(05:37):
play in the way that communities and states and the
federal government manage our beaches.
Speaker 2 (05:45):
Sure, we always hope that we're providing science that can
assist with the decision making on how to best utilize
our coasts. And one thing that the USGS does is
UH as we have updated beach and June elevations, whether
(06:08):
that be from a led our survey, which is sort
of a way to measure topography, or we can also
derive elevations from aerial imagery surveys, we can provide those
updated elevations and we update the these probabilities of clastural
(06:28):
change UH based on those updated elevations. Unfortunately, we don't
yet have elevations updated in this forecast from the Panellas
County dune and beach reconstruction that happened, you know, sort
of finished very recently, So in fact, we might be overestimating,
(06:53):
you know, our probability of change because we don't have
that nice new, you know, ten foot tall dune that
was constructed along many of our local beaches. So we
do try to incorporate that information, that data as rapidly
as we can, but you know, these data that take
(07:14):
time process and analysts, and then after the storm we'll
likely go out and take more elevation measurements, and we
also are collecting wave and water level measurements. So along
the coast we have a couple of wave gauges out
(07:34):
and coastal cameras where we're monitoring what happens and we'll
be able to get that information to our local cultural
managers after the storm.
Speaker 1 (07:46):
Well, we're certainly hopeful that it turns out better than expected.
It's always good to be able to prepare for the
worst and then get something that's not the worst. So
we hope that you're right there. Carrat dooring with the
US Geological Survey Coastal and Marine Science Center based in
Saint Petersburg, talking about the potential impact to beaches from
(08:07):
Hurricane Helene. Thank you for joining us on Beyond the News.
Speaker 2 (08:12):
Thank you, Boren
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