Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
All right, friends, welcome to the third hour The Morning
Show with Preston Scott. I'm literally turning the page of
the Rundown channeling my inner rush with that. Great to
be with you this morning, ruminators. Thanks so much. It
is the thirty sixth show, and please to add back
with me in studio the president of the James Madison Institute,
(00:23):
doctor Bob McClure.
Speaker 3 (00:24):
Doctor Bob, how are you. Good morning, sir?
Speaker 1 (00:26):
How are you You know we were just talking. Yeah,
you live here too, I do. And the elections, whether
it's state, whether it's national, or whether it's local. You know,
Tip O'Neil was right, all politics is local. But the
elections are going to be remarkably impactful.
Speaker 3 (00:47):
They really are.
Speaker 2 (00:48):
I mean, you have some really interesting elections in the
capital city, and I know your audience extends far beyond
the capital city, but it matters in the third largest
state in the country what happens here in Tallahassee. So
you have that at a state level. Obviously, you have
a presidential election in a US Senate race and six amendments,
(01:11):
of which three or four of those will be incredibly
impactful if they pass. And then nationally you're looking at
a US Senate in a House in a presidential race. Right,
So you know, elections have consequences, as they say, and
so what happens November fifth is going to affect not
(01:34):
only the folks in Tallahassee, but also across the state
and obviously nationally as well.
Speaker 1 (01:40):
Let's kind of do that in order, and let's start
with the rock and the smaller pond here in Tallahassee.
Because I agree with you. I've not heard anybody else
express that thought that what happens in the capital city
of the third largest state in the nation echoes, it reverberates,
it matters. I have suggested doctor McClure that the legislature
(02:04):
needs to do a couple of things. One is, it
needs to set a law that says any city that
is above one hundred thousand population must have districts. Tallahassee'
is the only city in the state that doesn't have districts. Secondly,
you can't settle an election in the primary. You can't
(02:24):
have sixteen percent of the electorate deciding something as important
as a city commissioner, a city a mayor county commissioner.
If there's three people in a race, the top two
vote getters, whether it's eighty twenty or fifty forty or
whatever it is, go to the general election.
Speaker 3 (02:41):
Your thoughts, Now, I agree with the districts.
Speaker 2 (02:46):
I mean, there's no doubt in a city the size
of Tallahassee, we should have districts. It allows for each
area to have a voice, a chance at least have
a chance at having a voice, a bully pulpit in
their own district.
Speaker 3 (03:02):
I think that's very important. I think we kind of know.
Speaker 2 (03:06):
The history of the August elections and why they happen
and driving turnout, and you know, it's a huge advantage
for incumbents. And then I so because Tallahassee is the
capital city of I would argue the most dynamic state
in the country.
Speaker 3 (03:26):
We have a thousand people moving here today, Preston right.
Speaker 2 (03:30):
Very diverse, you know, along with Texas and California, the
most diverse state in the country.
Speaker 3 (03:35):
This is a melting pot. It is.
Speaker 2 (03:36):
It absolutely is. And it's also a place where people
come the state to chase their version of the American dream.
I mean, it really is kind of that place where
people decide to move to chase their version of the
American dream. In Florida. You know, Palm Beach has become
the Wall Street of the South. That is not my quote.
(03:58):
That is from Forbes magazine. Miami has become the new
Silicon Valley.
Speaker 3 (04:03):
That is not my quote.
Speaker 2 (04:05):
That is a national publication saying that. And so Florida
has really become that way. Now we are trickling back
towards Tallahassee, and you are the capital city leadership decision making.
The things that happen here have national implications.
Speaker 1 (04:29):
Doctor Bob McClure with the James Madison Institute, long relationship
with JMI over the years, You've sat in here once
or twice election night?
Speaker 3 (04:37):
I have, I absolutely have.
Speaker 2 (04:38):
It's one of my favorite things to do is to
sit in here with you on election night and watch
the returns come in old school.
Speaker 1 (04:45):
I don't know if I have the stomach to do
it this time around. I mean literally, I don't know
if my nerves could handle it. Right before we get
to the national stuffy, state of Florida has been in
a good place. I think the state models a what
a balanced budget can do, be what a consumption tax
(05:05):
can do over a personal income tax. I think in
a lot of ways the idea of a state being
a Petri dish for how to work policy and refine
it and make it better. Yeah, we've got our problems.
We've got issues to absolutely do. Yeah, what do you
think is most important that's going to kind of be settled?
Is it the constitutional amendments or is it the legislative
(05:26):
makeup and kind of setting the table for who the
next governor is going to be.
Speaker 2 (05:29):
I think in Florida, the two most important constitutional amendments
three and four, legalizing marijuana and the abortion amendment are
the two most impactful from a state standpoint for a
couple of reasons. One, the left in Florida has been
(05:52):
completely obliterated over the last twenty years. Yeah, okay, from
school choice to election integrity to the tax and regulatory
environment the left has They are completely boxed in with
nowhere to go.
Speaker 3 (06:05):
And that is a reflection of the.
Speaker 2 (06:07):
Democratic Party, which reflects the values of the left generally speaking.
Speaker 1 (06:12):
Okay, would you say that Florida's success has has enhanced
that suppression.
Speaker 3 (06:17):
There's no doubt.
Speaker 2 (06:18):
And and and by suppression, you mean good policy is
good politics. And that's what's happening here in Florida. We're
not you know, Lord helps. Somebody tweets out that you're
talking about suppression Presston. We're not talking about oppression or suppression.
I'm joking with you.
Speaker 3 (06:34):
Sure, yeah, we know how people work, right.
Speaker 2 (06:36):
But good policy is good politics. There's a reason a
thousand people are moving here today. There's a reason why.
Speaker 3 (06:42):
Uh.
Speaker 2 (06:42):
I believe in the census Florida was undercounted. We should
have gotten an extra congressional district. But that's another conspiracy theory.
Uh we can talk about another day. But Florida has
become the place you can you can chase your versus
of the American dream. And so whether it's the goatory environment
in taxes, whether it's healthcare, whether it's election integrity, universal
(07:06):
school choice, a place to retire, start a business. Any
index did you see in any Fortune magazine, Forbes, the
Wall Street Journal, The state of Florida is always in
the top five, and it's usually number one when it
comes to the large states, like the top ten larger states.
Speaker 3 (07:23):
So that's what we see. Good policy is good politics.
Speaker 2 (07:26):
I tell people all the time, I don't care about
being a Republican or a Democrat. To me, it's about
movement conservatism. That is that movement conservatism, that is the
courage to make decisions like Jeb did as governor, like
some of our speakers and our presidents have done over
the last thirty years to make Florida what it is
today and what happens.
Speaker 3 (07:47):
People are moving here, People are moving here.
Speaker 1 (07:50):
And thus far leaving their politics behind. If they came
from a blue state and we're thinking a little bit left,
they've changed at it, it would appear yeah.
Speaker 2 (08:00):
Yeah, no, No, I mean, look at you know, from
a from a quantitative standpoint, just look at party registration right,
from a qualitative standpoint, just look at election numbers.
Speaker 3 (08:10):
Trump won.
Speaker 2 (08:11):
And look, I'm not here to talk about Trump as
you know, as this raging movement conservatism. Conservative Trump won
Florida in twenty sixteen by one percent. Barack Obama won
Florida twice by one percent, Rick Scott governor's race one percent.
All of those one percent one percent. Trump won twenty
twenty one Florida by four hundred thousand votes. Ron DeSantis
(08:32):
beat Andrew Gillum by forty thousand votes the first time.
The second time, he won Florida by more votes than
Gavin Newsom won California. Now they may still be counting
votes in California, but the reality is, yeah, the reality
is that Ron DeSantis won Florida by more votes than
(08:52):
Gavin Newsom. So anecdotally, qualitative, qualitatively, and quantitatively, the state
of Florida is become I mean more red, and by red,
I mean movement conservative. Good policy is good politics. Because
here's the last thing to preston. Everybody in their private
life is a conservative. Yeah, the most liberal left wing
(09:13):
person in politics lives their personal life. They want the
best schools for their children, They want the most money
in their pocket, They want a future for their children
and their grandchildren. Those are simple conservative policies. Everyone in
their private life is a conservative. It's different in their
public lives.
Speaker 1 (09:33):
Back with you, twenty one past the hour, doctor Bob McClure,
James Madison Institute, All right, November fifth.
Speaker 3 (09:42):
It's crazy, it is.
Speaker 1 (09:44):
I don't want to put all my cookies in the
basket of the bakery in Pennsylvania. That says Trump's gonna win, right,
because they were wrong in twenty twenty.
Speaker 3 (09:53):
Right, But do you believe the polling It would depend
on which pole.
Speaker 1 (10:01):
So I struggle buying that. Suddenly Kamala Harris, who was
the first one out in the Democrat primary, who is
seemingly not very intelligent. Yeah, has suddenly become the flavor
of the month. No.
Speaker 2 (10:14):
I think if you look at twenty sixteen, you look
at twenty twenty, Donald Trump underpolled by three to four percent,
Biden overpolled. So if you look at the races by
state by state, in every you know, the important swing states,
Biden was up four points, six points, six points, seven
(10:35):
points different places like that. Okay, and as we all know,
we can debate what happened, but it was very very
very close. Let's just leave it there. Right now, they're
basically even depending on the poll. There are pulsters that
I trust more than others. I think there are polls
that drive the news. But I also think there are
polsters that are very interested in getting it right, and
(10:59):
I'd be happy to year with those those with you.
But I think today Trump would win, and I think
he would win Pennsylvania.
Speaker 3 (11:07):
I think he would win Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina. I
think he would probably win Michigan today. Now tomorrow all
bets are off, But today I think Wisconsin would be
very close. I don't know I don't know about Wisconsin.
Speaker 2 (11:22):
I think there'd be fifty two senators. I don't think
they're gonna get to fifty three. I think they'd end
up with fifty two. They're gonna win West Virginia, that's
a gimme. They're gonna win Montana. That puts you at
fifty one. And watch Maryland. Larry Hogan, former Republican governor
of the state of Maryland, is running for the US Senate,
(11:45):
and I think he makes it fifty two. Now caucus, well, no,
he's going to caucus with the Republicans. Yeah, but he'll
be the Joe Manchin of the Republican barn will he will.
Speaker 3 (11:55):
But that gets into fifty two.
Speaker 2 (11:58):
I don't think if you look at Ohio, Bernie Moreno,
or you look at Carrie Lake, they are what I'm seeing.
They're polling behind Trump in those states.
Speaker 3 (12:11):
So and then the House.
Speaker 2 (12:13):
I think the Republicans hold the House with a slim
majority today.
Speaker 3 (12:17):
This is all today. Things change.
Speaker 1 (12:20):
If Donald Trump were to win reelection somehow overcome the
landslide of opposition in the media in polling, does he
face the headwinds in the Congress that he faced the
last time, or is it a different story.
Speaker 2 (12:35):
I think it's a completely different story because this Republican Party,
for good or for ill, is not the Republican Party.
Speaker 3 (12:45):
That was caught off guard in twenty sixteen. So you
still had the remnants of the Bush.
Speaker 2 (12:52):
Cheney, Romney McConnell model of the Republican Party.
Speaker 3 (12:57):
If we just.
Speaker 2 (12:58):
Continue to be nice to the media, if we just
continue to oppose uh, you know, you know, if we
be nicer to illegal immigrants, will win. And it's like
Lucy and Charlie with the football, they would always lose
by three points. Oh, but let's try it again. Trump
completely changed that model. He turned it on its head.
(13:22):
That Republican Party no longer exists. And you see it
by the two Chinees who just endorsed Donald Trump in
the response on the part of the Republican Party, and
so this kind of anger and great, you know, nobody cared.
So I think the headwinds would be in the administrative state,
(13:44):
not in Congress. And that is going to be the
challenge should Donald Trump win. It's going to be the
administrative state pushing back as opposed to a Congress. Assuming
he carried he has of houses pushing back.
Speaker 1 (14:03):
There will be, in my opinion, a requirement for them
to address the national debt. Is there a will in
your opinion to do that? Because Trump hasn't talked about it, right,
But it has to happen.
Speaker 2 (14:15):
Yeah, we're talking about politicians, preston, So that's dicey.
Speaker 3 (14:21):
I mean it has to be done.
Speaker 1 (14:22):
You talk about a massive topic that could be boiled
down to everybody's home and wallet and credit card, right,
and I mean that's a that's low hanging fruit.
Speaker 3 (14:31):
It is it is.
Speaker 2 (14:34):
I think given this inflationary state, it is a historic opportunity.
That is a silver lining of what the spending we've
been seeing out of DC in the sense that it
is an opportunity to address that.
Speaker 3 (14:46):
The question in Congress is who's going to lead on
it in that area?
Speaker 2 (14:50):
And the question is in the Trump administration who's going
to lead on that? But I do think given inflation
and all of the spending, Americans recognize this cannot continue.
Speaker 1 (15:01):
Good to see you, Thanks for having me, doctor, Bob McClure,
James Madison Institute. He'll be back with us next month,
which will be our final visit before the election. That
ought to be fun. We might carve out a little
extra time. It's Tuesday here in the morning show