January 20, 2024 • 38 mins
Sean Brace and #Phillies Insider Luke Arcaini answer your questions as the #MLB off-season rolls on!
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:00):
Another edition of Luke and I onthe Phillies coming your way in a good
evening, everybody, Yeah it's January. That's all right, No reds for
the wicked over here on this show, Luke Arcaney covers all things Phillies and
MLB for us on the Gambler,I am Sean Brace a lot to get
to Luke. How we been,sir, good good. We got a
(00:20):
lot to talk about. We gotsome questions to answer tonight. But finally
getting back, getting back here intothe new season. We got a I
think it's twenty twenty seven days untilthe first official workout for the Phillies and
then I believe it's seventy until openingday, so we're getting there a few
months under a month till the firstworkout, Opening day at our Ballpark,
(00:43):
right correct, opening at our BallparkMarch twenty eighth. I believe it's three
thirty against the Atlanta Braves. Weopen up this year against the Breaks,
which is nice. I'm like,I'm like last year having to go to
Texas and play the Rangers on openingDay turned out to at the time,
it was it was funny because Ibet you probably remember all these big like
(01:07):
high hopes for last season, andwe opened up last season we actually got
swept by the Rangers opening weekend,and everyone remember we went up, we
were up in the first like firstcomes back. We were up five nothing
or six nothing, and we lostand I think we lost ten six,
and we ended up getting swept bya team who we thought was was horrible
(01:30):
and they ended up winning the WorldSeries. So I guess that doesn't look
look as bad. But I thinkin that that game one, I'm pretty
sure if you go back and checkmy timeline, I tweeted something along the
lines of like team still got it, like we are no, no,
the opposite, And when they wereup, I'm like, this team is
special. They're going right back tothe World Series. And they lost that
(01:52):
game. Dude, the amount ofbets. I I had so many bets
in opening Day and all of themhad money line on them, and I
swear I think think I hit everyplayer prop in every single parlay, and
it's just the money line tact.After that, it was. It was
a brutal It was a brutal start. Bad starts right here, Yeah,
bad start to you. Hopefully wewere a little bit better there as always
(02:13):
any questions, comments, concerns.Let us know your thoughts. We are
a show for the people, sodon't hold back. And uh, I
got some questions for Luke and there'sbeen some great questions as far as the
mailbag. A lot of people checking, including our own Gambler personalities and communities.
So look forward to get into this. I want to start with this
(02:35):
though. Look, because you sowe recorded like last week or maybe a
week before that, but it wasa couple of days ago, probably ten
days ago. And last week I'mdriving into work and I'm listening to the
MLB network and oh, man isRyan Spilboard? Is that who it was?
I forget who the exact posts were. There was two of them,
and they set point blank the phillPlease get Blake Snell. It's the best
(03:01):
rotation in baseball bar none. Yeah, they like in front of everybody.
Well, I mean this is look, this is the bias for like Again,
we're very fair, but we havea little bias for the Phillies.
They were waxing poetic. So Iguess what my question would be is why
not like, dude, if that'sthe case, If it's that much of
(03:23):
a slam dunk for insiders, peoplethat cover and yeah, I think you
get the Cy Young Award winner andthe rotation for the Phillies, of course,
but man to say that they're thebest rotation in baseball? Do it?
Do it? You know? Whynot? What's holding them back?
Give me the percentages? Is therea real realistic possibility? And if not,
(03:44):
who will land Blake snell services?Yeah, so I don't necessarily think
Blake Snell's coming here. I thinkit was kind of just a thought that
the Phillies are are sort of alwaysin the market for a pitcher. It
seemed like every off season, nomatter who they have, it seems like
they're they're kind of always bidding fora pitcher. So we saw the other
(04:09):
night that the Yankees got Marcus Stroman. Does that necessarily mean the Yankees are
out on Blake Snell. Uh No, But I would find it hard to
believe that the Yankees are gonna takeon Juan Soto, Blake Snell, and
Marcus Stroman along with contracts like likeAaron Judge heading into this this new season.
(04:30):
So I don't necessarily think Blake Snellwill go there either. The it's
it's kind of unlikely, like wedon't really know the deal right now with
Snell. There's there's been some teamsthrown around. The Blue Jays have kind
of been a name that has beenwhispered around. Who who honestly really need
a starter? The Phillies, Ifeel like, like I kind of said
(04:54):
earlier, they're always in the marketfor a starter. Would it make this
rotation, which right now I thinkis probably a top five rotation in baseball?
The Phillies? But if the Philliesadded Blake Snell to their rotation right
now, they would undoubtedly be thebest rotation in the entire in the entire
Mmm, what if sho hae Otaniwas healthy enough to pitch? Would they
(05:16):
still Would they be in front ofthe Dodgers in your mind? Yeah,
it depends. I think that's kindof a one A, one B with
a slight edge to the Dodgers justbecause of Otani being their number one at
that point. You kind of haveto compare number one the number one once
you get to a rotation that hasreally good starters in that one to four
(05:41):
slot, And I love Zach Wheeler, but I would take Otani's arm over
Zach Wheeler's arm. Right when it'sfully healthy. So I think if Otani
was fully healthy, I think thatthat would that would get the lean to
the Dodgers, But obviously he's not. So I think if the Phillies did
really want to go all in onthis pitching rotation right now, I think
(06:04):
Blake Snell is kind of their obviousguy. What scares me right now about
Blake Snell is how many years theseteams want to give him. I don't
ideally, I don't really want togive Snell any more than like three years.
His walks really scare me, andI think walks is something in baseball
that only gets worse as you godeeper into your career. You never really
(06:27):
limit your walks. The older youget, those just kind of those usually
go up. So for Snell,a guy who will strike out two hundred
and forty batters a year, he'salso walking close to the league lead right
now. So a two year dealfor Blake Snell to come in here and
then re sign Wheeler in this springand have a rotation for the next two
(06:50):
years of Wheeler, Snell Nola Rangerto try and win in this window right
now, then yeah, I'm allin. But if you're throwing an eight
year, two hundred and sixty milliondollar contract at Blake Snell. I'm a
little hesitant. Well on that one, understood. Yeah, Well, look,
(07:11):
the Dodgers are definitely the bar thefact that they got Walker boot Bull
are coming up of return, andthey signed the two studs this season of
course, glass now and who knowsif Kershaw comes back, If that door
is open, if you're Clayton Kershaw, how do you not take it?
Do you expect to see him backthis year? I think so. Yeah,
he's just kind of a guy that'sthat's gonna hang around for a while.
(07:33):
I think. I don't. Idon't. I don't really think he's
that impactful anymore. I mean,he's still Clayton Kershaw'll still go out and
don't get guys out, and he'llhave a few starts here and there,
we'll go eight innings with nine strikeouts. Don't start him in October. Just
don't start him in October, becausehe is like historically bad. Once you
get to the playoffs, he's likeMike McCarthy in January. He is like
(07:56):
Justin Verlander in the World Series.We don't got to get there at them.
But yeah, I think you'd probablysee Kershall, but I don't.
I don't really think he's he's somebig number one starter anymore. A couple
of comments coming in Ryan whacked hardlynewer go looky Pooky, what's up right
(08:16):
on? And then we got aquestion coming in for Connor, Hey,
who would you rather have Snell orMontgomery? Considering contract for Gumpy is cheaper?
I like Gumpy better right now,but could be biased from the postseason.
Your thoughts on that? Uh?I mean, yeah, if you
gave the same two guys the sameexact contract, I would probably take Blake
(08:39):
Snell's pitching ability, But once again, I feel like Blake Snell's kind of
going to be leaning to a longercontract. And while Jordan Montgomery looked really
good in the playoffs, I thinkif you threw Blake Snell into that ranger's
rotation, I think he would havebeen just as good, maybe even not
better. So, So, ifI had to pick between the two guys
(09:01):
on the same exact contract right now, I would definitely lean Blake Snell.
But if you're talking about a threeto four year deal for Montgomery compared to
a seven year deal for Snell,then I would definitely lean Montgomery there.
All right, good question. Weappreciate that. Connor, keep them coming
in, guys and girls. Wewill definitely get to those. I got
(09:22):
a couple questions that I want toget into, but of course, the
free agency with MLB season right aroundthe corner, is there anybody else that's
at the top of your list thatnot specifically for the Phillies, but looking
forward to that last piece being added? Is there a player that you think
could be a difference, especially inthe early part of the season, anybody
(09:43):
else of interest in the free agencymarket still as far as there will be
his concerned, Yeah, so,I mean the big names right now.
Big one today was the Astros arepretty interested in Josh Hater, who is
seemingly the best reliever left was basicallythe best reliever that was a free agent
this offseason, big, big timecloser, lefty. Basically, if if
(10:09):
you need a closer, you wantJosh Hater, that that's kind of the
guy you want. Josh Hater hada little bit of a sort of an
attitude ish problem last year. Hewas kind of saying, well, I'm
really just a ninth inning guy.He was kind of closing down these eighth
inning roles, which kind of sparkedsome a little bit from some teams there.
(10:30):
But if you can get Hater forthe right price, I think every
team in Major League Baseball is gonnatake that. So it is a very
Astros move in a year where isa bad year for the Astros. Going
all the way to the ALCS isa bad year for that franchise. They're
just gonna come back and they're justgonna get the best reliever in all of
(10:50):
baseball, as they're probably losing oneof the better ones from last year.
And Hector Nerris, who has hitthe free agent market, is rumored to
want close to three years up toforty five fifty ish million dollars. He's
earned it, he had, hehad an ERA under two last season.
(11:11):
He was fantastic the two years thatthat he was in Houston. So while
the Ashers are losing a guy inNarris, most likely unless he does go
back there, which it doesn't seemlike he's going to, it seems like
they are going to get Josh Hater, or at least they are the top
the top organization for him. Okay, well, it's a good looking at
(11:35):
twenty twenty four. As far asfree agents are concerned, I have an
article in front of me of thetwenty twenty five free agency. Oh yeah,
how about that? How's that class? I feel like it's a pretty
good one. First of all,it's the too early twenty twenty five MLB
free agency rankings. But so whatdo we know about the Yankees Wan Soda?
(11:56):
Of course, if he doesn't resign with them and he's a free
agent, he's going to be thetop of the life. He's twenty six,
twenty seven, whatever he is atthat point in time. Dude,
I don't know. Yeah, ifhe continues on this path, he's gonna
be a Hall of Famer. He'sgonna be playing forever. This is horrible.
Jan one, Alec Bregman, AlexBregman two, Corbyn Burns three,
(12:20):
Zach Wheeler four, Al Tuvey five, Kim from the Padres six, Pete
Alonzo. I thought he was afree agent this year. That yeah,
he went to like last year oflike arbitration type of things. They kind
of brought him back, but Idon't know he that There's been rumors about
them training him to I don't knowwhat the Mets are doing right now.
(12:41):
They're they're, they're they're going fromuh from that leaked Max Schurzer thing of
them taking a year off and rebuildingfor twenty twenty five to apparently being in
on on guys like like Robert Stevenson. I don't, I don't really know
what the best plan is right now. They're they're kind of all over the
place. I don't, which isfine for me, right that that works
(13:07):
for us as Phillies fans, ButI don't. I don't really know what
the deal is there. I know. We got another question that came in
here. Emmanuel class a name thrownaround, had been in the trade market.
A Hall would be big for amanual class A Uh even correct,
Yeah, Cleveland just disgusting closer.Uh. He threw seventy seven games in
(13:31):
twenty twenty two and seventy five gamesin twenty twenty three, eighty six saves
in the last two years. Hehad a He had a one point three
six e ra A in seventy twoinnings in twenty twenty twenty two. He
was he was. He's been grossthe late twenty five too. Yeah,
(13:52):
I mean he had a one twonine and twenty twenty one he'd A won
three six and twenty twenty two,and he had a three point two two
last year. He's been Uh,if you finished top five in Rookie of
the Year as a closer, thatyou gotta be really good. A Hall
would be really big, something likeJustin Crawford, Nick Abel and probably a
(14:18):
few more pieces that that's that's gonnabe a big one. I mean,
he's a top probably three reliever inthe entire MLB who is under contract still,
so it wouldn't be a free agentsigning that would take a big haul.
I don't exactly know when his contractis up. I would have to
(14:39):
believe it soon let me see.But I mean he's been he's signed a
five year Wow, they have theyhave him on an unbelievable contract. He
signed a five year, twenty milliondollar contract back before twenty twenty two,
I believe. So, I meanthey they're giving this guy like two and
(15:03):
a half million dollars a year rightnow. To be like a top three
reliever in the entire sport. You'dhave to be out of your mind if
you were the Guardians to trade him. And honestly, I think the chances
are so low for the Phillies justbecause of what other teams would have to
offer. If you get a teamlike I, like the Cubs who have
(15:28):
these really insane farm systems, orthe Orioles, any of these teams are
gonna be able to offer a waybetter package than we would ever be able
to offer. So I mean,I would love Class A, but I
don't really think there's honestly got anychance of that happening. I think it
(15:50):
would take a big haul. Andwhile we do have it now with with
some minor leaguers that the Phillies aregetting, our farms systems getting a lot
better than it was say four yearsago. I agree. It went from
probably bottom five in the MLB toaround top fifteen, which which is big
(16:11):
progression there. So if the Phillies, if that chance came around, I
would hope they would be all overit. But I don't think they really
have the guys that compete with thebig farm systems. All Right, good
question there, once again Connor checking. He says, Yeah, the contract
is insanely cheap, and that's becauseit's a cheap organization with a new head
coach this year, new manager,so I think they got to give him
(16:33):
all the support they possibly can upthere in Cleveland's surprised some people over the
years, so I would be Iwas a brand new manager and I came
in and they traded my best basicallymy best player, like other than Jose
Ramiris. Right, it's it's basicallythe best guy on on the Guardians exactly.
All right, Let's let's get tothe mailbag, milbag. Keep the
(16:55):
questions coming in and next time,next mill bag, we gotta go ahead
and write the names down who asksthese questions. That's a bad job by
us, But that's okay, we'llwork on that. It's it's spring training
for us as well. It isthe off season. This question came from
Joey. I don't know, we'lljust throw that out there. Joe from
Bucks County wants to know, Hey, man, is there any outfield targets
(17:18):
that are standing out right now?Do you trust Johann Rojas to hold down
an everyday starting role starting in March? Luca came Outfield's tough right now.
There's I've thrown around Adam Duval alot that that's kind of been a guy
that I've really been in on.But it seems like the Red Sox and
I believe who was the other team. There was just a report earlier that
(17:44):
came out from I believe John Hayman. Yeah, the Red Sox and Angels
are kind of big for Adam Duvalright now, two basically extremely mid baseball
teams kind of going after just abat that they they hope can have some
pop for them. So, Imean my big target was kind of Adam
Duval. Jor Celaire has has beena name for me that that really hits
(18:11):
bombs. But he's more of ad h than he is an outfielder.
And if you had to put himin the outfield, he he would usually
play right, uh and not reallyleft. And and right now, the
Phillies are kind of looking what seemslike a left fielder. Uh. They
I think they would like to keepCastianos and right if they could. If
(18:32):
if an opportunity came along and theysigned a guy that only plays right field,
I think Nick Castianos could definitely makethe move to left field. But
I think their ideal situation right nowis to try and final left fielder.
So there's been guys like Bellinger whoreally are a center fielder, but they
can play the corners. If youcan play center, you can play the
(18:52):
corners, which is vice versa.Is not the case. Uh, Nick
Castianos could not play center field,Kyle Rober could not play center field.
But like we saw last year,Rojas, Marsh, those guys can go
in the left right if they needto. Sojre Selaire, Adam Duval,
Hernandez went to the Dodgers. Hewas kind of a top target. Bellinger
(19:15):
seems like he's probably gonna go backto the Cubs right now. So really
those two guys, but it seemslike right now the Phillies want Johann Rojas
and Brandon Marsh in the roletfield onopening deck. Whether that's the right move
or not, I don't know rightnow. Rojas is one of the best
(19:37):
defenders in all of baseball, butthe bat is definitely not one hundred percent
there yet. So granted, thiscenter field position in baseball, it is
not a hitting position, So Ithink if you get the production from the
rest of your lineup, you canlive with Rojas in that nine spot.
But it seems like from all theports that have come out that the Phillies
(20:02):
as of right now at least aregoing to open open up opening day with
Martian left Rojas in center. Sothey can keep looking around, but I
think right now they they still aregonna lean on the guys that they had
last season. You've been posting abunch of stuff from Instagram from around the
team. I believe Rojas was workingout with Wasn't he working out with somebody?
(20:22):
Was he was working out with JT. Real Muto today in the cages
both of the never mind, I'mnot gonna say, uh. I mean,
that's a that's a good guy forRosas to work out with. Get
some swings. And Roass has beengrinding. Man. He He's been posting
something nearly every day on his Instagramabout him him either in the cages are
out on the field down in Florida. Uh. He he wants this spot.
(20:45):
He's ripped now. There was thatbig picture that went viral. I
think I tweeted it out, uha few weeks ago. He looks absolutely
ripped in the cages right now.So maybe that's gonna help. I hope
it does, because if if youcan get a maybe say a consistent to
sixty five out of row Hoas withten home runs and forty stolen bases,
(21:06):
and he plays the defense that heplayed last year. He's already gonna be
one of the best guys out thereon this team and probably in the league
for centerfield. All right. Also, Luke dropping the gyms the first official
workout. As we said earlier Februaryfourteen, twenty eight days, We're so
(21:27):
close. I love it. Somake sure you're following our Caney Luke on
all things socials and of course ourshow channel at Luke and I. Phil's
all right, next question up,biggest sleeper. Let's go team perspective.
The biggest sleeper? Would we wouldwe qualify? First of all, last
year? The biggest sleeper last year? Will we qualify? The Baltimore Orioles
(21:49):
is the biggest sleeper? Yeah,definitely the biggest underdog. I would say
them are the Texas Rangers. Honestly, the Rangers were the Ranger hit their
win They went over their win totalby I think twenty three wins compared to
the oriol beginning of the season.The Orioles were up there too. I
saw a tweet today of was therewas an account that posted the comparison and
(22:15):
win totals off to find it.But I believe the Rangers were at the
top and a round over like liketwenty one to twenty two games, which
is nuts. That's the last teamI expected to win the World Series last
year. Yeah, well that's onethat Well, those are the two for
you for this year, though.Your thoughts on who the biggest sleeper will
be this year? Any thoughts onthat one? What about the Diamondbacks?
(22:40):
The Diamondbacks made it to the damnWorld Series. Weren't they a sleeper from
last year too? Yeah? Definitely, they weren't really predicted to be.
I don't think a World Series team, even a playoff team, I don't.
I don't think anyone thought that Diamondbackswould even necessarily get in the playoffs.
Considering you had a team like theSan Diego Padres who played a really
bad season last year, basically givethem that playoff spot. That's kind of
(23:03):
what it turned into. So biggestsleeper going into the twenty twenty fourth season,
honestly, I would maybe say isthe Tampa Bay Rays. I know
they lost some guys, but theRays are always just a consistently good baseball
team. Right now, their WorldSeries odds are at around thirty five to
one after ninety nine wins in theregular season last year, So if you
(23:27):
want to look at necessarily World Seriesodds compared to wins last year, that's
probably the biggest sleeper to me.Other than that maybe the Orioles at like
seventeen to one on that World Seriesodds from DraftKings. There a team that
(23:48):
wins what how many games did theywin last year? One hundred and one
games? Having those big of oddsto win the World Series, that's definitely
a bet that I would be willingto look at. Obviously, they they
do have to go through the Yankees, who added Wan Soto Marcus Stroman and
are probably not done. But Iknow we talked about it last episode.
(24:10):
One of my favorite bets I thinkis the Orioles to win the NL East
at plus money. Uh, theYankees are a pretty heavy favorite right now,
and I think the Orioles still havea good enough team to possibly sneak
by them until the Yankees show it. To me, I'm not ready to
crown them this big AL East champright now, even the American League champ,
(24:30):
because they're always gonna have to gothrough the Astres no matter what the
Yankees do in the regular season.Off season anything. Once they get to
October, the Astros own them everysingle season. So it's the matter for
me of the Yankees proving that.And until they do, I'm gonna look
at that Orioles number first. AllRight. I like that. Yeah,
(24:53):
I'm probably right there with you asfar as yours. Now. Last year
was on the Oriols as far asteam total, that was a winner there,
so had a little bit of avibe on them last year. This
year not so. Yeah, they'rejust so young. They're young, they're
fun. They kind of had thatwe have nothing to lose thing, kind
of like the Phillies did two yearsago. They were kind of this team
(25:14):
like nobody expected to be good.And then obviously the Orioles had a lot
better regular season than we did twoyears ago. But they kind of just
got in the playoffs and were like, we don't really have anything to lose,
so they played some good baseball.They have a lot of young guys,
They have a really big future.The number one farm system in baseball.
The Oriols are going to be reallygood for a long time, which
I think is good for baseball.All right, and final question here,
(25:38):
once again, please tweet us allthe time at Luke and I phills or
on Instagram as well. Of coursewe got our social media accounts personal accounts,
So anytime a question comes to you, I'd love to get you involved
with the pod. And let's talkabout MVPs here. And I know we
hit on this previous because those numbersjust came up. Bryce Harper still Olden
Steady at ten to one, RonaldAcundia for the NL plus five fifty.
(26:02):
He is your leader the al overthere you have a plus five fifty as
well. Aaron Judge who was inthe building for the Tampa Bay Bucks in
the Eagles game on Monday night,Soto six to one, jor Don Alvareze
to one, Corey Seeger ten toone. Rounding out there, Lookie Betts
plus six to fifty, show HeyOtani plus six fifty and Fernando Tatis Junior
(26:22):
at ten to one. As faras that, what is concerned now?
I bring this up because the MLBNetwork had a MLB Network's Top ten first
basement for two than and twenty four. Well, they had Freddy Freeman in
front of him. Can you knowif there's one guy that you're gonna put
in front of Bryce Harp bro knowFreddy Freddy Freeman is Freddy Freeman, but
(26:47):
Harper number two, Olsen three,gold Schmith four, Yondi di As five
and then Pete Alonzo six. Theyalso did they also put the top ten
second basement out and they completely hejust didn't put Ozzie Albi's on the list,
just just completely like forgot to putAlbi's. They didn't have Bryson Stott
(27:07):
and they completely forgot to put OzzyAlby's who's probably a top five guy at
that position in the entire MLB,but just completely forgot to put him on
the list, which was those arereplies were really funny the other day.
Welcome the list season, bros.The time to go ahead and start putting
(27:30):
the list together and get people talkingand the green and usually that's usually disagreeing
exactly on that. Anyways, asfar as Bryce Harper nationally GIMVP, why
not in attend to one, look, I prefer to be twenty to one,
and preferred to be anything more thanten to one as far as higher,
but ten to one, I thinkthat's still a decent number to take
(27:51):
a shot at, and especially comparingthem to the other guys around him like
this is you know, would Iprefer to get a better number on Bryce
Harper as I just said, couldI if I wait? Possibly, But
there's also a chance to dude sodialed in this year that he's just mashing
and he returns to the MVP formwhere he's not going to be injured and
he's playing whatever amount of games heis at first base, number could just
(28:17):
continue to go down, dwindle.It's a good question, where are you
at right now? Yeah? So, uh, Harper m VP is actually
one of my one of my bigbets for futures. I think Harper is
in a really good spot this offseason. I think one, it's his first
year going into this first base positionfor the full season. He doesn't have
(28:38):
to worry about playing the outfield everyday. He doesn't have to worry about
Tommy Johns surgery coming off of that. His arm is completely healthy. He's
completely healthy. It's the first timehe's been completely healthy opening day in a
while. I think this is aseason unless some freak injury happens throughout the
season, this is this is thetime now where you're gonna start to get
(29:00):
Bryce Harper for close to one hundredand forty hundred and fifty games, which
if if you put Bryce Harper outthere for one hundred and fifty games,
I'm gonna have to assume he hitsaround at least thirty five home runs,
and if he does that, thatusually puts him around a two to eighty
average with a round one hundred andsomething RBIs. That's gonna put one of
(29:21):
the faces of baseball in that runningfor MVP every single time. Granted,
Ronald Acunya is gonna have the edgebecause of the stolen bases, any sort
of down year for Acunya at theplay, which, granted, it's gonna
be really hard to top what hedid last year. Ronald Acunya had one
of the best seasons we've ever seenlast year. That usually doesn't happen twice
(29:42):
in a row, right, So, I mean last time Harper played over
one hundred and forty games was theyear he won MVP. H He had
a one point zero four to fourOPS. He had forty two doubles,
yet thirty five home runs eighty fourRBIs. He hit three h nine on
the season. I think this isa perfect scenario for Bryce to take home
(30:04):
his third MVP, which is somethingnot a lot of guys do, right
that that is not something you seea lot in baseball. And I think
this is the perfect time for Bryceto do this because Bryce is pissed off.
I get it, last year suckedand the year before that sucked,
but there's there's not a player inthat locker room who wants to hold that
(30:26):
trophy up in the air more thanBryce. And I think now that he
finally has the full season to beable to put his team in that position,
I think this is the year forhim. I truly do think this
is the year that he gets histhird MVP, which once again is just
something you don't see in sports really, right. I mean we're sitting here
(30:47):
calling for Embiid's MVP number two issomething that would be incredible, right because
you barely see two a lot inall of sports. If you have a
guy that has won multiple Silver Sluggers, three MVPs and is gonna lead a
lot of stats for your franchise andpossibly eventually gets a ring, right that
that's top. That's top twenty fivebaseball player of all time type of thing
(31:11):
right there. And I think whileHarper knows that in the back of his
head. If there's one thing Harperwants, I'm at the championship and and
he he knows that him carrying thisteam throughout this regular season and not getting
off to this horrible start in MarchApril, and may I think that's big
for this team this year. Wouldbe nice to have him right back in
(31:36):
the hunt for an MVP, becausethen it's just exactly what you said.
The team's success is there, andthe face of the franchise, the face
of MLB, and everybody's talking aboutit. No, by the way,
he's the best showman in the game. So we'll see how that one plays
out again. Ten to one onDraftKings sportsbook, Hey quickly, I want
to bring this in because you know, here we are, we're talking about
(31:56):
Blake's now we're talking about you know, big name guys that we are still
out there, Bellinger, so onand so forth. MLB Network also has
an article out this is five freeagent starters who could be sneaky good ads.
Michael Lorenzen on that page or onthat post, of course, had
yeah good luck he takes I lovehim. It was. It was one
(32:17):
of the best moments of the season. But good luck to whoever takes him
for a whole year. It's justa lot, got a lot of hits
re you from the Orioles is aninteresting name, right, I mean,
look, he was good for Baltimore. I know we got hurt or Toronto.
(32:37):
Excuse me. Yeah, so itsays the elevent in the room is
his injury history plural. In additionto surgery in twenty twenty two, he
missed the entire fifteen sixteen season.Since seventeen, he's only exceeded one hundred
innings in three of seven seasons.He'll also turned thirty seven. Yeah there
say he's old. Why that's whyhe's still availed. Yeah, that's the
(33:00):
risk. I mean if if heif he comes out and he stays healthy,
then yeah, but banking on athirty seven year old lefty to be
healthy for a full season and togive money like that is not not something
I really want to take. Ican't believe Michael Lorenz is on that list.
(33:21):
Car even the guy at the bottom. You can get Carlos Carrasco as
far away from me as possible.I don't I don't need any bit of
him on the Phillies. No,Yeah, he's a bust all day,
every day, big time bust onthat all right, excellent stuff, Episode
two, Volume two edition Here Lukeand I on the Phillies spring training right
(33:43):
around the corner, And as saidit one hundred times, I'll say it
again. Got my trip to Clearwaterbooked. I'm ready to go, and
I need to go. I needto I think it's the eleventh. It's
March eleventh, and they're taking onthe Yankees Yanks. Wow, I feel
like they play Yankees every single dayin spring journey. It's gonna be a
World Series preview? Oh is itnow? Maybe Yankees and Yankees aren't getting
(34:09):
enough credit because they made trades.But I like what the Yankees have done
so far this year. Yeah.I mean they're they're always gonna be right
in the running. Last year,was it? We always said that about
the Red Sox too, And theyain't gonna be in the running this year
and they running last year. Yeah. The Red Sox think they're they're they're
(34:29):
letting all their all their guys go. Uh, They're they're putting a bunch
of guys on the block. Uh. This now bad year for the Red
Sox. Definitely a chance If there'sa year for the Yankees to do it,
it's this year with eventually once Sotobecoming a free agent after this season.
If if there's a guaranteed year forthem to go all in, it's
(34:52):
it's one hundred percent this season.Baltimore would be interesting. As we talked
about, you know, you canget behind them, cheering them, enjoying
them, not feel dirty. Orplus seven fifty to represent the American League
to win the NL E or AlEast, as you said, plus two
to eighty. Now what number didyou get him at. I saw him
at three thirty, which was alittle bit. Yeah, plus two eighty
(35:15):
now on DraftKings, plus one fortyfor the Yankees to win the division.
So anybody on that list other thanthe Yankees, I can get behind the
Orioles. But man, it mightbe the Yankees year to put it together.
We've heard that one before. Again, just as far at the top
of the charge, you got theAstros plus for twenty five Yankees, plus
four to fifty Rangers, plus fiveto fifty Orioles plus seven fifty Blue Jays
plus eight fifty you know, yeah, I mean I honestly, off of
(35:40):
those odds, don't I don't know. I don't think the Rangers are gonna
come anywhere close to it again.They seem like a team that'll have a
good regular season and then probably getbounced in the first round. I think
Orioles. Maybe, if I'm goingto really buy all in on the Oriols,
I might as well buy all in. But that that Astros number just
(36:02):
I don't know. Anytime the Ashersdon't do it the year before, it
seems like taking their number the nextyear is the right play. It seems
like the Ashers are a team thatif one year they don't find themselves there,
the next year, they just kindof walk themselves right back there.
So I'd probably look at the favoritehere in the Ashers to win the American
League. As far as the NationalLeague, the Cardinals even having top five
(36:30):
odds are gross. That kind ofjust proves how bad the National League is.
I agree, it's really gonna comedown to the Dodgers, Braves,
and the Phillies. Right, Diamondbacksaren't going back again, Cardinals aren't.
The Mets stink, The Giants can'tsign anybody. The Padres maybe, but
say that every year too exactly,You say that every year I mean the
(36:52):
best number really right now is thePhillies. The Dodgers at plus one eighty
is kind of a boring number toget for something that is gonna take a
lot right at that plus one eighty, and then the Braves are at three
twenty right now, So I mean, right now, I in an unbiased
way, with the Phillies being thereplus seven hundred, that's probably what I
(37:15):
would look at right now, allright, Luke Arcaney, this was fun.
Glad we were able to get itin before we got snowed in for
the next three years four to eightinches. Brother, hopefully you're gonna get
something that over there in Jersey.I hope. So I gotta blow up
a sled. I don't have apump I have. I don't have a
like a a I got a soccerball pump with spled. Yeah, this
(37:38):
sled, man, it's gonna I'llbe blowing at night, a long night.
Awesome stuff. Luke Arcaney, besure to give us a following out
things socials, and we're gonna bedoing this a lot more consistently over the
next few weeks, taking us rightinto too spring training. Having a lot
more to talk about and of course, hitting the ground run and come late
(38:00):
March into April with all things aregular season. Any final thoughts there before
we got here, nothing really.Thank you, Thanks everyone for the questions.
I like asking some questions, soMilbank. Thank you, Ryan,
thank you, Connor, thank you, Joey, thank you everybody. We'll
be sure to record your names nexttime. For Luke R. Kenny,
(38:21):
I'm Sean Bray. So everybody staysafe, take tomorrow off, enjoy today
and good luck on your place
Another edition of Luke and I onthe Phillies coming your way in a good
evening, everybody, Yeah it's January. That's all right, No reds for
the wicked over here on this show, Luke Arcaney covers all things Phillies and
MLB for us on the Gambler,I am Sean Brace a lot to get
to Luke. How we been,sir, good good. We got a
(00:20):
lot to talk about. We gotsome questions to answer tonight. But finally
getting back, getting back here intothe new season. We got a I
think it's twenty twenty seven days untilthe first official workout for the Phillies and
then I believe it's seventy until openingday, so we're getting there a few
months under a month till the firstworkout, Opening day at our Ballpark,
(00:43):
right correct, opening at our BallparkMarch twenty eighth. I believe it's three
thirty against the Atlanta Braves. Weopen up this year against the Breaks,
which is nice. I'm like,I'm like last year having to go to
Texas and play the Rangers on openingDay turned out to at the time,
it was it was funny because Ibet you probably remember all these big like
(01:07):
high hopes for last season, andwe opened up last season we actually got
swept by the Rangers opening weekend,and everyone remember we went up, we
were up in the first like firstcomes back. We were up five nothing
or six nothing, and we lostand I think we lost ten six,
and we ended up getting swept bya team who we thought was was horrible
(01:30):
and they ended up winning the WorldSeries. So I guess that doesn't look
look as bad. But I thinkin that that game one, I'm pretty
sure if you go back and checkmy timeline, I tweeted something along the
lines of like team still got it, like we are no, no,
the opposite, And when they wereup, I'm like, this team is
special. They're going right back tothe World Series. And they lost that
(01:52):
game. Dude, the amount ofbets. I I had so many bets
in opening Day and all of themhad money line on them, and I
swear I think think I hit everyplayer prop in every single parlay, and
it's just the money line tact.After that, it was. It was
a brutal It was a brutal start. Bad starts right here, Yeah,
bad start to you. Hopefully wewere a little bit better there as always
(02:13):
any questions, comments, concerns.Let us know your thoughts. We are
a show for the people, sodon't hold back. And uh, I
got some questions for Luke and there'sbeen some great questions as far as the
mailbag. A lot of people checking, including our own Gambler personalities and communities.
So look forward to get into this. I want to start with this
(02:35):
though. Look, because you sowe recorded like last week or maybe a
week before that, but it wasa couple of days ago, probably ten
days ago. And last week I'mdriving into work and I'm listening to the
MLB network and oh, man isRyan Spilboard? Is that who it was?
I forget who the exact posts were. There was two of them,
and they set point blank the phillPlease get Blake Snell. It's the best
(03:01):
rotation in baseball bar none. Yeah, they like in front of everybody.
Well, I mean this is look, this is the bias for like Again,
we're very fair, but we havea little bias for the Phillies.
They were waxing poetic. So Iguess what my question would be is why
not like, dude, if that'sthe case, If it's that much of
(03:23):
a slam dunk for insiders, peoplethat cover and yeah, I think you
get the Cy Young Award winner andthe rotation for the Phillies, of course,
but man to say that they're thebest rotation in baseball? Do it?
Do it? You know? Whynot? What's holding them back?
Give me the percentages? Is therea real realistic possibility? And if not,
(03:44):
who will land Blake snell services?Yeah, so I don't necessarily think
Blake Snell's coming here. I thinkit was kind of just a thought that
the Phillies are are sort of alwaysin the market for a pitcher. It
seemed like every off season, nomatter who they have, it seems like
they're they're kind of always bidding fora pitcher. So we saw the other
(04:09):
night that the Yankees got Marcus Stroman. Does that necessarily mean the Yankees are
out on Blake Snell. Uh No, But I would find it hard to
believe that the Yankees are gonna takeon Juan Soto, Blake Snell, and
Marcus Stroman along with contracts like likeAaron Judge heading into this this new season.
(04:30):
So I don't necessarily think Blake Snellwill go there either. The it's
it's kind of unlikely, like wedon't really know the deal right now with
Snell. There's there's been some teamsthrown around. The Blue Jays have kind
of been a name that has beenwhispered around. Who who honestly really need
a starter? The Phillies, Ifeel like, like I kind of said
(04:54):
earlier, they're always in the marketfor a starter. Would it make this
rotation, which right now I thinkis probably a top five rotation in baseball?
The Phillies? But if the Philliesadded Blake Snell to their rotation right
now, they would undoubtedly be thebest rotation in the entire in the entire
Mmm, what if sho hae Otaniwas healthy enough to pitch? Would they
(05:16):
still Would they be in front ofthe Dodgers in your mind? Yeah,
it depends. I think that's kindof a one A, one B with
a slight edge to the Dodgers justbecause of Otani being their number one at
that point. You kind of haveto compare number one the number one once
you get to a rotation that hasreally good starters in that one to four
(05:41):
slot, And I love Zach Wheeler, but I would take Otani's arm over
Zach Wheeler's arm. Right when it'sfully healthy. So I think if Otani
was fully healthy, I think thatthat would that would get the lean to
the Dodgers, But obviously he's not. So I think if the Phillies did
really want to go all in onthis pitching rotation right now, I think
(06:04):
Blake Snell is kind of their obviousguy. What scares me right now about
Blake Snell is how many years theseteams want to give him. I don't
ideally, I don't really want togive Snell any more than like three years.
His walks really scare me, andI think walks is something in baseball
that only gets worse as you godeeper into your career. You never really
(06:27):
limit your walks. The older youget, those just kind of those usually
go up. So for Snell,a guy who will strike out two hundred
and forty batters a year, he'salso walking close to the league lead right
now. So a two year dealfor Blake Snell to come in here and
then re sign Wheeler in this springand have a rotation for the next two
(06:50):
years of Wheeler, Snell Nola Rangerto try and win in this window right
now, then yeah, I'm allin. But if you're throwing an eight
year, two hundred and sixty milliondollar contract at Blake Snell. I'm a
little hesitant. Well on that one, understood. Yeah, Well, look,
(07:11):
the Dodgers are definitely the bar thefact that they got Walker boot Bull
are coming up of return, andthey signed the two studs this season of
course, glass now and who knowsif Kershaw comes back, If that door
is open, if you're Clayton Kershaw, how do you not take it?
Do you expect to see him backthis year? I think so. Yeah,
he's just kind of a guy that'sthat's gonna hang around for a while.
(07:33):
I think. I don't. Idon't. I don't really think he's
that impactful anymore. I mean,he's still Clayton Kershaw'll still go out and
don't get guys out, and he'llhave a few starts here and there,
we'll go eight innings with nine strikeouts. Don't start him in October. Just
don't start him in October, becausehe is like historically bad. Once you
get to the playoffs, he's likeMike McCarthy in January. He is like
(07:56):
Justin Verlander in the World Series.We don't got to get there at them.
But yeah, I think you'd probablysee Kershall, but I don't.
I don't really think he's he's somebig number one starter anymore. A couple
of comments coming in Ryan whacked hardlynewer go looky Pooky, what's up right
(08:16):
on? And then we got aquestion coming in for Connor, Hey,
who would you rather have Snell orMontgomery? Considering contract for Gumpy is cheaper?
I like Gumpy better right now,but could be biased from the postseason.
Your thoughts on that? Uh?I mean, yeah, if you
gave the same two guys the sameexact contract, I would probably take Blake
(08:39):
Snell's pitching ability, But once again, I feel like Blake Snell's kind of
going to be leaning to a longercontract. And while Jordan Montgomery looked really
good in the playoffs, I thinkif you threw Blake Snell into that ranger's
rotation, I think he would havebeen just as good, maybe even not
better. So, So, ifI had to pick between the two guys
(09:01):
on the same exact contract right now, I would definitely lean Blake Snell.
But if you're talking about a threeto four year deal for Montgomery compared to
a seven year deal for Snell,then I would definitely lean Montgomery there.
All right, good question. Weappreciate that. Connor, keep them coming
in, guys and girls. Wewill definitely get to those. I got
(09:22):
a couple questions that I want toget into, but of course, the
free agency with MLB season right aroundthe corner, is there anybody else that's
at the top of your list thatnot specifically for the Phillies, but looking
forward to that last piece being added? Is there a player that you think
could be a difference, especially inthe early part of the season, anybody
(09:43):
else of interest in the free agencymarket still as far as there will be
his concerned, Yeah, so,I mean the big names right now.
Big one today was the Astros arepretty interested in Josh Hater, who is
seemingly the best reliever left was basicallythe best reliever that was a free agent
this offseason, big, big timecloser, lefty. Basically, if if
(10:09):
you need a closer, you wantJosh Hater, that that's kind of the
guy you want. Josh Hater hada little bit of a sort of an
attitude ish problem last year. Hewas kind of saying, well, I'm
really just a ninth inning guy.He was kind of closing down these eighth
inning roles, which kind of sparkedsome a little bit from some teams there.
(10:30):
But if you can get Hater forthe right price, I think every
team in Major League Baseball is gonnatake that. So it is a very
Astros move in a year where isa bad year for the Astros. Going
all the way to the ALCS isa bad year for that franchise. They're
just gonna come back and they're justgonna get the best reliever in all of
(10:50):
baseball, as they're probably losing oneof the better ones from last year.
And Hector Nerris, who has hitthe free agent market, is rumored to
want close to three years up toforty five fifty ish million dollars. He's
earned it, he had, hehad an ERA under two last season.
(11:11):
He was fantastic the two years thatthat he was in Houston. So while
the Ashers are losing a guy inNarris, most likely unless he does go
back there, which it doesn't seemlike he's going to, it seems like
they are going to get Josh Hater, or at least they are the top
the top organization for him. Okay, well, it's a good looking at
(11:35):
twenty twenty four. As far asfree agents are concerned, I have an
article in front of me of thetwenty twenty five free agency. Oh yeah,
how about that? How's that class? I feel like it's a pretty
good one. First of all,it's the too early twenty twenty five MLB
free agency rankings. But so whatdo we know about the Yankees Wan Soda?
(11:56):
Of course, if he doesn't resign with them and he's a free
agent, he's going to be thetop of the life. He's twenty six,
twenty seven, whatever he is atthat point in time. Dude,
I don't know. Yeah, ifhe continues on this path, he's gonna
be a Hall of Famer. He'sgonna be playing forever. This is horrible.
Jan one, Alec Bregman, AlexBregman two, Corbyn Burns three,
(12:20):
Zach Wheeler four, Al Tuvey five, Kim from the Padres six, Pete
Alonzo. I thought he was afree agent this year. That yeah,
he went to like last year oflike arbitration type of things. They kind
of brought him back, but Idon't know he that There's been rumors about
them training him to I don't knowwhat the Mets are doing right now.
(12:41):
They're they're, they're they're going fromuh from that leaked Max Schurzer thing of
them taking a year off and rebuildingfor twenty twenty five to apparently being in
on on guys like like Robert Stevenson. I don't, I don't really know
what the best plan is right now. They're they're kind of all over the
place. I don't, which isfine for me, right that that works
(13:07):
for us as Phillies fans, ButI don't. I don't really know what
the deal is there. I know. We got another question that came in
here. Emmanuel class a name thrownaround, had been in the trade market.
A Hall would be big for amanual class A Uh even correct,
Yeah, Cleveland just disgusting closer.Uh. He threw seventy seven games in
(13:31):
twenty twenty two and seventy five gamesin twenty twenty three, eighty six saves
in the last two years. Hehad a He had a one point three
six e ra A in seventy twoinnings in twenty twenty twenty two. He
was he was. He's been grossthe late twenty five too. Yeah,
(13:52):
I mean he had a one twonine and twenty twenty one he'd A won
three six and twenty twenty two,and he had a three point two two
last year. He's been Uh,if you finished top five in Rookie of
the Year as a closer, thatyou gotta be really good. A Hall
would be really big, something likeJustin Crawford, Nick Abel and probably a
(14:18):
few more pieces that that's that's gonnabe a big one. I mean,
he's a top probably three reliever inthe entire MLB who is under contract still,
so it wouldn't be a free agentsigning that would take a big haul.
I don't exactly know when his contractis up. I would have to
(14:39):
believe it soon let me see.But I mean he's been he's signed a
five year Wow, they have theyhave him on an unbelievable contract. He
signed a five year, twenty milliondollar contract back before twenty twenty two,
I believe. So, I meanthey they're giving this guy like two and
(15:03):
a half million dollars a year rightnow. To be like a top three
reliever in the entire sport. You'dhave to be out of your mind if
you were the Guardians to trade him. And honestly, I think the chances
are so low for the Phillies justbecause of what other teams would have to
offer. If you get a teamlike I, like the Cubs who have
(15:28):
these really insane farm systems, orthe Orioles, any of these teams are
gonna be able to offer a waybetter package than we would ever be able
to offer. So I mean,I would love Class A, but I
don't really think there's honestly got anychance of that happening. I think it
(15:50):
would take a big haul. Andwhile we do have it now with with
some minor leaguers that the Phillies aregetting, our farms systems getting a lot
better than it was say four yearsago. I agree. It went from
probably bottom five in the MLB toaround top fifteen, which which is big
(16:11):
progression there. So if the Phillies, if that chance came around, I
would hope they would be all overit. But I don't think they really
have the guys that compete with thebig farm systems. All Right, good
question there, once again Connor checking. He says, Yeah, the contract
is insanely cheap, and that's becauseit's a cheap organization with a new head
coach this year, new manager,so I think they got to give him
(16:33):
all the support they possibly can upthere in Cleveland's surprised some people over the
years, so I would be Iwas a brand new manager and I came
in and they traded my best basicallymy best player, like other than Jose
Ramiris. Right, it's it's basicallythe best guy on on the Guardians exactly.
All right, Let's let's get tothe mailbag, milbag. Keep the
(16:55):
questions coming in and next time,next mill bag, we gotta go ahead
and write the names down who asksthese questions. That's a bad job by
us, But that's okay, we'llwork on that. It's it's spring training
for us as well. It isthe off season. This question came from
Joey. I don't know, we'lljust throw that out there. Joe from
Bucks County wants to know, Hey, man, is there any outfield targets
(17:18):
that are standing out right now?Do you trust Johann Rojas to hold down
an everyday starting role starting in March? Luca came Outfield's tough right now.
There's I've thrown around Adam Duval alot that that's kind of been a guy
that I've really been in on.But it seems like the Red Sox and
I believe who was the other team. There was just a report earlier that
(17:44):
came out from I believe John Hayman. Yeah, the Red Sox and Angels
are kind of big for Adam Duvalright now, two basically extremely mid baseball
teams kind of going after just abat that they they hope can have some
pop for them. So, Imean my big target was kind of Adam
Duval. Jor Celaire has has beena name for me that that really hits
(18:11):
bombs. But he's more of ad h than he is an outfielder.
And if you had to put himin the outfield, he he would usually
play right, uh and not reallyleft. And and right now, the
Phillies are kind of looking what seemslike a left fielder. Uh. They
I think they would like to keepCastianos and right if they could. If
(18:32):
if an opportunity came along and theysigned a guy that only plays right field,
I think Nick Castianos could definitely makethe move to left field. But
I think their ideal situation right nowis to try and final left fielder.
So there's been guys like Bellinger whoreally are a center fielder, but they
can play the corners. If youcan play center, you can play the
(18:52):
corners, which is vice versa.Is not the case. Uh, Nick
Castianos could not play center field,Kyle Rober could not play center field.
But like we saw last year,Rojas, Marsh, those guys can go
in the left right if they needto. Sojre Selaire, Adam Duval,
Hernandez went to the Dodgers. Hewas kind of a top target. Bellinger
(19:15):
seems like he's probably gonna go backto the Cubs right now. So really
those two guys, but it seemslike right now the Phillies want Johann Rojas
and Brandon Marsh in the roletfield onopening deck. Whether that's the right move
or not, I don't know rightnow. Rojas is one of the best
(19:37):
defenders in all of baseball, butthe bat is definitely not one hundred percent
there yet. So granted, thiscenter field position in baseball, it is
not a hitting position, So Ithink if you get the production from the
rest of your lineup, you canlive with Rojas in that nine spot.
But it seems like from all theports that have come out that the Phillies
(20:02):
as of right now at least aregoing to open open up opening day with
Martian left Rojas in center. Sothey can keep looking around, but I
think right now they they still aregonna lean on the guys that they had
last season. You've been posting abunch of stuff from Instagram from around the
team. I believe Rojas was workingout with Wasn't he working out with somebody?
(20:22):
Was he was working out with JT. Real Muto today in the cages
both of the never mind, I'mnot gonna say, uh. I mean,
that's a that's a good guy forRosas to work out with. Get
some swings. And Roass has beengrinding. Man. He He's been posting
something nearly every day on his Instagramabout him him either in the cages are
out on the field down in Florida. Uh. He he wants this spot.
(20:45):
He's ripped now. There was thatbig picture that went viral. I
think I tweeted it out, uha few weeks ago. He looks absolutely
ripped in the cages right now.So maybe that's gonna help. I hope
it does, because if if youcan get a maybe say a consistent to
sixty five out of row Hoas withten home runs and forty stolen bases,
(21:06):
and he plays the defense that heplayed last year. He's already gonna be
one of the best guys out thereon this team and probably in the league
for centerfield. All right. Also, Luke dropping the gyms the first official
workout. As we said earlier Februaryfourteen, twenty eight days, We're so
(21:27):
close. I love it. Somake sure you're following our Caney Luke on
all things socials and of course ourshow channel at Luke and I. Phil's
all right, next question up,biggest sleeper. Let's go team perspective.
The biggest sleeper? Would we wouldwe qualify? First of all, last
year? The biggest sleeper last year? Will we qualify? The Baltimore Orioles
(21:49):
is the biggest sleeper? Yeah,definitely the biggest underdog. I would say
them are the Texas Rangers. Honestly, the Rangers were the Ranger hit their
win They went over their win totalby I think twenty three wins compared to
the oriol beginning of the season.The Orioles were up there too. I
saw a tweet today of was therewas an account that posted the comparison and
(22:15):
win totals off to find it.But I believe the Rangers were at the
top and a round over like liketwenty one to twenty two games, which
is nuts. That's the last teamI expected to win the World Series last
year. Yeah, well that's onethat Well, those are the two for
you for this year, though.Your thoughts on who the biggest sleeper will
be this year? Any thoughts onthat one? What about the Diamondbacks?
(22:40):
The Diamondbacks made it to the damnWorld Series. Weren't they a sleeper from
last year too? Yeah? Definitely, they weren't really predicted to be.
I don't think a World Series team, even a playoff team, I don't.
I don't think anyone thought that Diamondbackswould even necessarily get in the playoffs.
Considering you had a team like theSan Diego Padres who played a really
bad season last year, basically givethem that playoff spot. That's kind of
(23:03):
what it turned into. So biggestsleeper going into the twenty twenty fourth season,
honestly, I would maybe say isthe Tampa Bay Rays. I know
they lost some guys, but theRays are always just a consistently good baseball
team. Right now, their WorldSeries odds are at around thirty five to
one after ninety nine wins in theregular season last year, So if you
(23:27):
want to look at necessarily World Seriesodds compared to wins last year, that's
probably the biggest sleeper to me.Other than that maybe the Orioles at like
seventeen to one on that World Seriesodds from DraftKings. There a team that
(23:48):
wins what how many games did theywin last year? One hundred and one
games? Having those big of oddsto win the World Series, that's definitely
a bet that I would be willingto look at. Obviously, they they
do have to go through the Yankees, who added Wan Soto Marcus Stroman and
are probably not done. But Iknow we talked about it last episode.
(24:10):
One of my favorite bets I thinkis the Orioles to win the NL East
at plus money. Uh, theYankees are a pretty heavy favorite right now,
and I think the Orioles still havea good enough team to possibly sneak
by them until the Yankees show it. To me, I'm not ready to
crown them this big AL East champright now, even the American League champ,
(24:30):
because they're always gonna have to gothrough the Astres no matter what the
Yankees do in the regular season.Off season anything. Once they get to
October, the Astros own them everysingle season. So it's the matter for
me of the Yankees proving that.And until they do, I'm gonna look
at that Orioles number first. AllRight. I like that. Yeah,
(24:53):
I'm probably right there with you asfar as yours. Now. Last year
was on the Oriols as far asteam total, that was a winner there,
so had a little bit of avibe on them last year. This
year not so. Yeah, they'rejust so young. They're young, they're
fun. They kind of had thatwe have nothing to lose thing, kind
of like the Phillies did two yearsago. They were kind of this team
(25:14):
like nobody expected to be good.And then obviously the Orioles had a lot
better regular season than we did twoyears ago. But they kind of just
got in the playoffs and were like, we don't really have anything to lose,
so they played some good baseball.They have a lot of young guys,
They have a really big future.The number one farm system in baseball.
The Oriols are going to be reallygood for a long time, which
I think is good for baseball.All right, and final question here,
(25:38):
once again, please tweet us allthe time at Luke and I phills or
on Instagram as well. Of coursewe got our social media accounts personal accounts,
So anytime a question comes to you, I'd love to get you involved
with the pod. And let's talkabout MVPs here. And I know we
hit on this previous because those numbersjust came up. Bryce Harper still Olden
Steady at ten to one, RonaldAcundia for the NL plus five fifty.
(26:02):
He is your leader the al overthere you have a plus five fifty as
well. Aaron Judge who was inthe building for the Tampa Bay Bucks in
the Eagles game on Monday night,Soto six to one, jor Don Alvareze
to one, Corey Seeger ten toone. Rounding out there, Lookie Betts
plus six to fifty, show HeyOtani plus six fifty and Fernando Tatis Junior
(26:22):
at ten to one. As faras that, what is concerned now?
I bring this up because the MLBNetwork had a MLB Network's Top ten first
basement for two than and twenty four. Well, they had Freddy Freeman in
front of him. Can you knowif there's one guy that you're gonna put
in front of Bryce Harp bro knowFreddy Freddy Freeman is Freddy Freeman, but
(26:47):
Harper number two, Olsen three,gold Schmith four, Yondi di As five
and then Pete Alonzo six. Theyalso did they also put the top ten
second basement out and they completely hejust didn't put Ozzie Albi's on the list,
just just completely like forgot to putAlbi's. They didn't have Bryson Stott
(27:07):
and they completely forgot to put OzzyAlby's who's probably a top five guy at
that position in the entire MLB,but just completely forgot to put him on
the list, which was those arereplies were really funny the other day.
Welcome the list season, bros.The time to go ahead and start putting
(27:30):
the list together and get people talkingand the green and usually that's usually disagreeing
exactly on that. Anyways, asfar as Bryce Harper nationally GIMVP, why
not in attend to one, look, I prefer to be twenty to one,
and preferred to be anything more thanten to one as far as higher,
but ten to one, I thinkthat's still a decent number to take
(27:51):
a shot at, and especially comparingthem to the other guys around him like
this is you know, would Iprefer to get a better number on Bryce
Harper as I just said, couldI if I wait? Possibly, But
there's also a chance to dude sodialed in this year that he's just mashing
and he returns to the MVP formwhere he's not going to be injured and
he's playing whatever amount of games heis at first base, number could just
(28:17):
continue to go down, dwindle.It's a good question, where are you
at right now? Yeah? So, uh, Harper m VP is actually
one of my one of my bigbets for futures. I think Harper is
in a really good spot this offseason. I think one, it's his first
year going into this first base positionfor the full season. He doesn't have
(28:38):
to worry about playing the outfield everyday. He doesn't have to worry about
Tommy Johns surgery coming off of that. His arm is completely healthy. He's
completely healthy. It's the first timehe's been completely healthy opening day in a
while. I think this is aseason unless some freak injury happens throughout the
season, this is this is thetime now where you're gonna start to get
(29:00):
Bryce Harper for close to one hundredand forty hundred and fifty games, which
if if you put Bryce Harper outthere for one hundred and fifty games,
I'm gonna have to assume he hitsaround at least thirty five home runs,
and if he does that, thatusually puts him around a two to eighty
average with a round one hundred andsomething RBIs. That's gonna put one of
(29:21):
the faces of baseball in that runningfor MVP every single time. Granted,
Ronald Acunya is gonna have the edgebecause of the stolen bases, any sort
of down year for Acunya at theplay, which, granted, it's gonna
be really hard to top what hedid last year. Ronald Acunya had one
of the best seasons we've ever seenlast year. That usually doesn't happen twice
(29:42):
in a row, right, So, I mean last time Harper played over
one hundred and forty games was theyear he won MVP. H He had
a one point zero four to fourOPS. He had forty two doubles,
yet thirty five home runs eighty fourRBIs. He hit three h nine on
the season. I think this isa perfect scenario for Bryce to take home
(30:04):
his third MVP, which is somethingnot a lot of guys do, right
that that is not something you seea lot in baseball. And I think
this is the perfect time for Bryceto do this because Bryce is pissed off.
I get it, last year suckedand the year before that sucked,
but there's there's not a player inthat locker room who wants to hold that
(30:26):
trophy up in the air more thanBryce. And I think now that he
finally has the full season to beable to put his team in that position,
I think this is the year forhim. I truly do think this
is the year that he gets histhird MVP, which once again is just
something you don't see in sports really, right. I mean we're sitting here
(30:47):
calling for Embiid's MVP number two issomething that would be incredible, right because
you barely see two a lot inall of sports. If you have a
guy that has won multiple Silver Sluggers, three MVPs and is gonna lead a
lot of stats for your franchise andpossibly eventually gets a ring, right that
that's top. That's top twenty fivebaseball player of all time type of thing
(31:11):
right there. And I think whileHarper knows that in the back of his
head. If there's one thing Harperwants, I'm at the championship and and
he he knows that him carrying thisteam throughout this regular season and not getting
off to this horrible start in MarchApril, and may I think that's big
for this team this year. Wouldbe nice to have him right back in
(31:36):
the hunt for an MVP, becausethen it's just exactly what you said.
The team's success is there, andthe face of the franchise, the face
of MLB, and everybody's talking aboutit. No, by the way,
he's the best showman in the game. So we'll see how that one plays
out again. Ten to one onDraftKings sportsbook, Hey quickly, I want
to bring this in because you know, here we are, we're talking about
(31:56):
Blake's now we're talking about you know, big name guys that we are still
out there, Bellinger, so onand so forth. MLB Network also has
an article out this is five freeagent starters who could be sneaky good ads.
Michael Lorenzen on that page or onthat post, of course, had
yeah good luck he takes I lovehim. It was. It was one
(32:17):
of the best moments of the season. But good luck to whoever takes him
for a whole year. It's justa lot, got a lot of hits
re you from the Orioles is aninteresting name, right, I mean,
look, he was good for Baltimore. I know we got hurt or Toronto.
(32:37):
Excuse me. Yeah, so itsays the elevent in the room is
his injury history plural. In additionto surgery in twenty twenty two, he
missed the entire fifteen sixteen season.Since seventeen, he's only exceeded one hundred
innings in three of seven seasons.He'll also turned thirty seven. Yeah there
say he's old. Why that's whyhe's still availed. Yeah, that's the
(33:00):
risk. I mean if if heif he comes out and he stays healthy,
then yeah, but banking on athirty seven year old lefty to be
healthy for a full season and togive money like that is not not something
I really want to take. Ican't believe Michael Lorenz is on that list.
(33:21):
Car even the guy at the bottom. You can get Carlos Carrasco as
far away from me as possible.I don't I don't need any bit of
him on the Phillies. No,Yeah, he's a bust all day,
every day, big time bust onthat all right, excellent stuff, Episode
two, Volume two edition Here Lukeand I on the Phillies spring training right
(33:43):
around the corner, And as saidit one hundred times, I'll say it
again. Got my trip to Clearwaterbooked. I'm ready to go, and
I need to go. I needto I think it's the eleventh. It's
March eleventh, and they're taking onthe Yankees Yanks. Wow, I feel
like they play Yankees every single dayin spring journey. It's gonna be a
World Series preview? Oh is itnow? Maybe Yankees and Yankees aren't getting
(34:09):
enough credit because they made trades.But I like what the Yankees have done
so far this year. Yeah.I mean they're they're always gonna be right
in the running. Last year,was it? We always said that about
the Red Sox too, And theyain't gonna be in the running this year
and they running last year. Yeah. The Red Sox think they're they're they're
(34:29):
letting all their all their guys go. Uh, They're they're putting a bunch
of guys on the block. Uh. This now bad year for the Red
Sox. Definitely a chance If there'sa year for the Yankees to do it,
it's this year with eventually once Sotobecoming a free agent after this season.
If if there's a guaranteed year forthem to go all in, it's
(34:52):
it's one hundred percent this season.Baltimore would be interesting. As we talked
about, you know, you canget behind them, cheering them, enjoying
them, not feel dirty. Orplus seven fifty to represent the American League
to win the NL E or AlEast, as you said, plus two
to eighty. Now what number didyou get him at. I saw him
at three thirty, which was alittle bit. Yeah, plus two eighty
(35:15):
now on DraftKings, plus one fortyfor the Yankees to win the division.
So anybody on that list other thanthe Yankees, I can get behind the
Orioles. But man, it mightbe the Yankees year to put it together.
We've heard that one before. Again, just as far at the top
of the charge, you got theAstros plus for twenty five Yankees, plus
four to fifty Rangers, plus fiveto fifty Orioles plus seven fifty Blue Jays
plus eight fifty you know, yeah, I mean I honestly, off of
(35:40):
those odds, don't I don't know. I don't think the Rangers are gonna
come anywhere close to it again.They seem like a team that'll have a
good regular season and then probably getbounced in the first round. I think
Orioles. Maybe, if I'm goingto really buy all in on the Oriols,
I might as well buy all in. But that that Astros number just
(36:02):
I don't know. Anytime the Ashersdon't do it the year before, it
seems like taking their number the nextyear is the right play. It seems
like the Ashers are a team thatif one year they don't find themselves there,
the next year, they just kindof walk themselves right back there.
So I'd probably look at the favoritehere in the Ashers to win the American
League. As far as the NationalLeague, the Cardinals even having top five
(36:30):
odds are gross. That kind ofjust proves how bad the National League is.
I agree, it's really gonna comedown to the Dodgers, Braves,
and the Phillies. Right, Diamondbacksaren't going back again, Cardinals aren't.
The Mets stink, The Giants can'tsign anybody. The Padres maybe, but
say that every year too exactly,You say that every year I mean the
(36:52):
best number really right now is thePhillies. The Dodgers at plus one eighty
is kind of a boring number toget for something that is gonna take a
lot right at that plus one eighty, and then the Braves are at three
twenty right now, So I mean, right now, I in an unbiased
way, with the Phillies being thereplus seven hundred, that's probably what I
(37:15):
would look at right now, allright, Luke Arcaney, this was fun.
Glad we were able to get itin before we got snowed in for
the next three years four to eightinches. Brother, hopefully you're gonna get
something that over there in Jersey.I hope. So I gotta blow up
a sled. I don't have apump I have. I don't have a
like a a I got a soccerball pump with spled. Yeah, this
(37:38):
sled, man, it's gonna I'llbe blowing at night, a long night.
Awesome stuff. Luke Arcaney, besure to give us a following out
things socials, and we're gonna bedoing this a lot more consistently over the
next few weeks, taking us rightinto too spring training. Having a lot
more to talk about and of course, hitting the ground run and come late
(38:00):
March into April with all things aregular season. Any final thoughts there before
we got here, nothing really.Thank you, Thanks everyone for the questions.
I like asking some questions, soMilbank. Thank you, Ryan,
thank you, Connor, thank you, Joey, thank you everybody. We'll
be sure to record your names nexttime. For Luke R. Kenny,
(38:21):
I'm Sean Bray. So everybody staysafe, take tomorrow off, enjoy today
and good luck on your place
Popular Podcasts
24/7 News: The Latest
Today’s Latest News In 4 Minutes. Updated Hourly.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations.
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.