Luke & I on the Phillies Ep. 21: 2024 MLB Player Props and Futures -- 2/1/24

Phillies Insider Luke Arcaini and Jon Jansen talk the latest in MLB off-season and some MLB player props and futures for the 2024 season!

Episode Transcript

(00:00):
Ladies and gentlemen, Welcome back toanother episode of Luke and I on the
Phillies. I believe this is episodefour of the new season. It's either
four or five, can't remember offthe top of my head. I am
Luke Arcaney. Uh. To yourright of me is John Jansen. Uh,
the co host with Sean Brace onthe Daily Ticket three to six multiple

(00:22):
nights. Now that we've went tothe bullpen here, instead of having the
usual Sean Brace, we had MarkHenry Junr. Last week we talked all
things Hall of Fame everything, VicFangio being apparently a huge Phillies guy.
Uh. And now we have JohnJansen on. I know me and John
are are very hardcore baseball stats guys. Uh. So I think we're gonna

(00:44):
have some fun with this one tonight. Uh yeah, Yeah. Let's get
into the babips. Let's get intothe Phipps, baby, let's get run
created. Plus, the nerds aretaking over on Luke and I, Sean
Brace and Tidner, so let's makethis as nerdy as we possibly can.
Those numbers at all yet. Ihaven't done my research on baseball. I'm

(01:07):
gonna get on Baseballsevant dot com rightnow, we're gonna start speaking of speaking
of baseball savant real quick. Iwas looking the other day because I'm I'm
just aerson when it comes to baseball. I was looking at Phil Maton's Baseball
Savant page the other day and itis bizarre. Let me find it,

(01:30):
let me pull it up real quick. He is ninety nine percentile in average
exit velocity at eighty four and ahalf. He just doesn't allow hard hits.
His hard hit percentile is the onehundred percentile, with an average of
a twenty three point five percent hardhit. If you want to have a

(01:53):
fun time, either one, golook at his Baseball Savant page, or
like me and Mark Henry Junior talkingabout last week, go look at Barry
Bonds's Baseball reference page. It isBarry. It's unbelievable that I was reading.
Barry Bonds is very good. It'smore just look at the ops numbers

(02:14):
that he has and they're like,we we were so impressed that I think,
what was it, Aaron Judge andthey get back to back or something
like one thousand ops seasons, We'relike, oh my god, this doesn't
get done. You know, it'scrazy. And then you look at Barry
Bonds. It's like he had backto back twelve hundred OPS years. Dude
was insane, and like, it'slike, whatever, I mean, I
don't want to get into Okay,my first my first time talking baseball this

(02:36):
year on a podcast or on ashow, and the first thing I'm going
to bring up is steroids. Butuh, like, I don't care that
dude took steroids or whatever. Like, dude is one of the most incredible
baseball players I've ever seen. I'mlike, I'm sure enhancers helped him to
a certain degree, but not that. I mean, you got to make
contact with baseball, not just hitit hard. You have to make contact

(02:57):
with it and hit it hard,and he did both. That's the thing.
Like it like I've I've once againfound myself back on Barry Vounce's Baseball
Reference page real quick, and thenwe'll get in these DraftKings. Is that
your favorite one? It's it's theit's the best baseball reference page. I
two thousand and one one point threeseven to nine OPS with a two hundred

(03:20):
and fifty nine OPS plus two thousandand two one point three eight one OPS
with a two hundred and sixty eightops plus. He had a two hundred
and thirty one OPS plus the nextyear and a two hundred and sixty three
ops plus in two thousand and four. That was his four time in a
row All Star MVP Silver Slucker fromI will my nominee for great baseball reference

(03:44):
page to look up would be Pedropag Yeah. Probably just if individual performances
are on there, if you wantto look at game logs, but seasons,
I mean, good lord, Imean just some absurd ones. This
guy's finished in the sub two eraslike a few times, and then you
get to see him at the endof his career pitch for the Phillies,
play in a World Series year forthe Phillies. My favorite part about his

(04:09):
Baseball Reference page is the year thatthe Phillies won the World Series was his
worst era of his entire career withthe biggest Phillies rival, the Mets.
Yeah he got, Yeah, hegot really bad towards the end of the
Mets. So yeah, maybe onenight, well we will hop on here
again and just go through the craziestbaseball oooh episode. We will rank the

(04:31):
ten best baseball reference pages of alltime. That's fun. That's fun.
Because I want to research and throwsome underrated ones in there. Let's do
it. We got some odds todayfrom DraftKings DraftKings Sportsbook. We got some
player totals for the twenty twenty fourMLB season, which is now fifty six

(04:53):
days away. We are, Ibelieve, thirteen days till the first day
of pitchers and catchers. We're almostthere. We're in the home sh stretch
until baseball the Phillies play a baseballgame this month. We can officially say
that now. But I know there'sa lot on here. There's there's home
run leader, strikeout leader, RBIleader, hits leaders, stolen bases,

(05:13):
saves. But I think to start, I know we really want to get
into season total home runs for players. Right now, I believe the highest
number is Aaron Judge. Aaron Judgeleads the way at forty four and a
half, and then after that,I believe it's Matt Olsen and Pete Alonso
were tied for second. So thoseare kind of your top three guys,

(05:35):
which granted that makes sense. Thoseare probably three of the best five home
run hitters in baseball, and youcan make an argument that those guys are
the best three. But right offthe bat, let's let's start at the
top. Aaron Judge, right,last year not in not an unbelievable year,

(05:56):
dealt with the injuries, kind ofback and forth, didn't didn't really
have like an an awesome year atthe play it. I mean, one
hundred and six games he was,he was, he was under forty home
runs, under eighty RBIs. Butobviously just now two years removed from a
season with sixty two home runs andone hundred and thirty one RBIs, so

(06:16):
his number sits at forty four anda half. I'm kind of back and
forth. I feel like the trendwith Judge is either like a career year
or like just under forty. Sowhere are you kind of at there there?
Yeah, it's I mean, that'sthat's the kind of thing you had
to look out with some of theseguys, because you know, every year
is not a career year. It'snot going to get better than the year

(06:38):
before sometimes, but you know therecould be some bounce back years. Yeah,
last year was a little bit down. His run created pleasantened up being
down, well be down, butstill it's the highest in his career.
It's still some of the highest numbersthat he's had. So for as much
as some of the total numbers wentdown, I mean he only had thirty
seven home runs, he still isplaying some of his best baseball. And

(07:00):
I think it really just comes downto availability for him if he's playing,
if he's on the field, LikeI think, there's potential for these numbers
to go back up again, it'snot gonna go up to you know,
his totals are not gonna go upto what it was a couple of years
ago when he won the MVP.Sixty two home runs is very hard to
do. One hundred and thirty oneRBI is very hard to do. You
know, some of the numbers hewas putting up was crazy. But again
other than that, like the otherthings were there, his OPS was still

(07:25):
very high. He finished in theone thousands for ops. So as long
as he plays forty four and ahalf is going to be tough. But
I think this is a year wherehe does get close to fifty. I
still think because he's reached that sortof peak in his career where I think
we're gonna see three or four yearsyou know, of really high baseball play
from him. He's that kind ofplayer. He's that kind of talent.

(07:47):
So I do think we're gonna seesimilar numbers in terms of the underlying metrics
and those those are gonna stay relativelythe same, And if they do,
it's just availability. Availability. Ithink is gonna be good this year,
and I would say over forty fourand a half. Really again, I
think the only thing you gotta worryfor is just injuries with him. Yeah,
it's really the matter of if hestays on the field, he's probably

(08:11):
going to go over his number,and if he hits the ball, even
like last year when he was onthe field, if he hits the ball
anywhere close to twenty twenty two,he's going to soar over that number.
So if there was a side formaybe us to lean, I would probably
say the over there. But nextguy on the list is Adley Rushman,

(08:37):
one of the most probably fun,I would say right now players in the
entire league. His number right nowis nineteen and a half. That to
me, I think is my favoritenumber out of every player on this board.
Board. Adley had twenty last yearand I I only see his number

(09:01):
going up right now. Yeah,I do see up that. That's certainly
for me. You know what oncehe hits you know, after a couple
of years, you know, someguy. All guys are different. You
know, some start earlier than others. But you know, I feel like
once you get to a certain amountof plate appearances, they guys get really
comfortable and find their stride. Ithink Adlie Rutchman, you know, I
would say maybe twenty five is inplay for him here. I could say

(09:26):
that it obviously just comes down togame played. And because he's a catcher,
you know they're gonna rest him alittle bit more so that that is
a big part of it. Butthe numbers, to me, are gonna
jump up. He went down alittle bit from his numbers in his rookie
year then to twenty twenty three.Most of it across the board was down.
The only thing that went up reallywas on base percentages up a little
bit and average, but some ofthe other stuff down. I think this

(09:48):
this is gonna be one of hisbetter years. Like when you look on
the back of the baseball card andyou see Addley Rutchman's numbers, this is
probably gonna be one of his topyears. I'm I'm projecting big breakout.
I think there's gonna be a yearthat twenty five home runs is certainly in
play. I see the batting averagearound two seventy to eighty, and they're
they're gonna need it. Obviously,Baltimore is in a position where they need

(10:11):
to win kind of now, eventhough they got a new ownership group.
So we'll see if they're actually goingto spend on some of these guys and
keep somebody like Rutchman around for awhile. But you know, they got
a great nucleus of very young talent, and I think that they're going to
continue that this season. There wasa very big breakout year for them last
year overall as a team. ButI think Rutchman in particular is gonna have
one of his better years. Ithink this could be a career year for

(10:33):
him. Yeah, so I thinkwe kind of can agree there if if
we're going to take one side,it is it is definitely going to be
the over there. There's a fewguys in between then. But the next
guy kind of want to look athis Austin Riley, who I feel like
is somehow underrated. Riley's underrated.The dude just mash his baseball. He

(10:54):
is so good, And I rememberunderrated I was, God, what was
the year that he was Actually hewasn't gonna win the MVP, but he
was an MVP candidate. I saidthat, and it was like, Oh,
this guy's been an MVP candidate before. And somebody came back to me,
like, what are you talking about, Like, Austin Riley's never been
that close. I'm like, yeah, man, Austin Riley has been close,

(11:15):
and in these conversations, he's finishedin the top ten three straight years.
The year I was talking about wastwenty twenty two, where he finished
sixth for most of that though,he was like top three to five through
most of that year because he washaving a stellar, like unbelievable year after
the All Star Break, and Ithink it was I think Freddy Freeman was
still on that team. So AustinRiley like he just that's the thing.

(11:37):
There's there was Freddy Freeman when hewas there, Ronaldcunye Junior, all these
other guys to come up and endedup having great years for Atlanta, and
Austin Riley just kind of gets alook past. But yeah, Austin Riley,
because of the amount of talent thatthe Braves had just kind of he's
one that people just kind of looklook by, look ahead, And I
don't think that's the right thing todo, because I think Austin Riley's probably

(11:58):
one of, if not the moreconcerns best bats on that team. Yeah,
and I think when you look atAustin Riley, if he's going to
hit the home runs like he henearly plays every single game. Twenty twenty
one he was in for one hundredand sixty games, twenty twenty two he
was in for one hundred and fiftynine games, and last year he was
he was in for one hundred andfifty nine games, right, So if

(12:20):
the bat is going, you don'thave to worry about really him getting injured.
And that's not even as a Jinkstype of thing, right, That
is that is sort of like heis going to be out there nearly every
day. And it's something that theBraves were so good at. Last year.
Matt Olsen played almost every day,right, Ozzy Aby's played whenever he
was out there, right, likethe Braves played. Just all their top

(12:43):
guys just seem to almost literally playevery day. So that's why it's so
it almost feels easy to kind ofbettle on those props for Braves players because
they're always gonna have a chance becausethey're always out there. So I mean,
if you look back at Riley's lastthree years, he's went thirty seven,
thirty eight, and thirty three.So that that that line seems right,

(13:05):
I don't know that that's kind ofit's way too it's way too close.
It's way too close. Yeah,it's it's probably one that I probably
wouldn't touch, but it's it's it'smore of a fact to show that he
is won a very underrated baseball player. It's it's like he is extremely I
think he's just insanely consistent. It'sa guy that the Braves I and I

(13:31):
feel like granted it's because he's playedon the Braves for so long, right,
that they've taken for for years.It's been a Kunya Freddy, right,
all these guys, but Austin Rileyrakes like he and and he's he's
gonna be there for a long time, Like he's not going anywhere. He's
he's going to kill the Phillies fora while. Oh yeah, Yeah,

(13:52):
he's gonna be the side for along time. All right, So I
mean, next, next guy,really on this, I guess we could
look at our guy, Bryce,Bryce Harper right now, set it thirty
and a half. Harper now gettingto play a full season. He is

(14:15):
now healthy for opening day, He'sin now, he's he's not missing the
first month, month and a half. I'm gonna say it's just straight up
I like Bryce is over in themost unbiased way. I don't think.
I think this is just one ofreally good number for Bryce. And and
I think too, I think thisis a really big year for Bryce.

(14:37):
I have Bryce finishing at least topthree MVP. I think this is a
year for him maybe to get thataward back and become a guy who I
think there's only nine guys in thehistory of Major League Baseball who have won
more than three earth three or moreMVPs. So I think Harper's just got

(14:58):
I think it's two years now ofjust failure at the end, and I
keep saying I feel like Harper isjust he I feel like this is just
his year. If you look atthe games, Harper played one hundred and
forty one games in twenty twenty one, that was the year he won MVP.
He hit thirty five home runs intwenty nineteen, his first year with

(15:20):
the Phillies. He hit thirty fivethat year. He hit thirty four the
year before with Washington. So thetrend with Bryce is every year that he
plays the right amount of games andthe games that he should without really injuries,
he goes over his total. Soif we believe that Bryce is going
to be out there for a fullseason without any you know, major injuries,

(15:43):
I think this is an obvious overfor me. Yeah. I think
for me as well, because thepower has been there, Like everything,
everything's still there for Bryce Harper.Like the ops numbers are still good,
the slugging numbers remain really high.The only from the last two seasons.
The reason why this has gone underand why you may be getting a slight
discount on this number is health.Now, he's not always the healthiest.

(16:08):
He doesn't he doesn't finish seasons allthat often, and he hasn't really with
the Phillies now. One of thoseyears obviously was the pandemic year. But
the highest games he's played with thePhillies in a season is one fifty seven,
which is pretty high. But otherthan that, the pandemic years fifty
eight, but one forty one ninetynine and one twenty six. He hasn't
started years healthy, he said.Injuries linger for a long time. Some

(16:33):
of those, though, are reallylike unlucky getting hit on the thumb type
injuries. That's not going to happenevery year. So I do think look
he yeah, some things like backproblems and stuff like that. I mean,
like Mike Trout, I would lookat his under just because this back
problem is not gonna go away andit's only gonna get worse for Mike Trout.
But for Bryce it's not. It'snot really that. It's just the

(16:55):
the dumb stuff that he's picking upagain, thumb injuries, you know,
getting hit by pitches on the thumband stuff like that. So as long
as Bryce Harper is healthy, allthe numbers suggest that if he plays a
full season or close to it,he'll be in the thirties. He'll be
near you know, a thirty four, thirty five. He hit thirty four
at his last year Washington thirty fiveand twenty nineteen. The highest he hit

(17:18):
with the Phillies other than that thirtyfive and twenty nineteen in twenty twenty one
was thirty five. Honestly, withthe number thirteen that he had in fifty
eight games. If I if mymath is somewhat correct, I'm just kind
of free balling at eyeballing it here. He could have gone four straight years
with thirty with thirty or more homeruns. So if that's the case,
the guy still is hitting it ona on a per game basis, on

(17:40):
you know, game to game basis, He's still hitting enough home runs per
game to justify getting over thirty.It's just is he going to play enough
games? And I think, tome, that's that's a yes. It's
not like he has chronic health issueslike again, Mike Trout's chronic. I
mean that that back injury is goingto continue to every year for the rest
of his career keep him out acertain amount of games. Bryce Harper,

(18:02):
isn't that. Bryce Arper's just hopefullya pitcher doesn't hit him on the thumb
and he he's out for you know, two or three months, or he's
not popping over the rails in hisfirst game back after coming back from Tommy
what a wild, wild person.Yeah, he's gonna be out. I
feel confident with him out in thefield that it keeps him, you know,
invested and I think it's going tokeep him hopefully healthier. I would

(18:22):
say first base is in a verystrenuous position to play in Major League Baseball.
I like it. I think BryceHarper could could definitely be healthy and
over thirty. Again, I feellike it's getting a discount because Bryce Harper
again for almost four straight years,would have gone over thirty. Obviously,
I'm kinting the pandemic year, butif I'm again free balling it correctly that

(18:44):
the uh that you know, thirteenhome runs of fifty eight games would make
its way too close to if notover thirty in that span. Yeah,
I do like it. I dolike it. I I think, like
you said, it's it's health ifand it's never been the case with Bryan.
It's like he's not like I wouldI wouldn't put Bryce in in in
that like injury prone category. No, it's not. It's just done all

(19:08):
the stuff. It's him getting hitin the hand by Blake Snell and like
that stuff. The only real onewas the Tommy John right, like that
was that was the one which isn'tgonna help. No, that's not gonna
help. It's like it's never gonnahelp you when you get Tommy John.
But the next guy on here isEllie de la Cruz, who I think

(19:30):
is kind of interesting going into thisseason. Obviously, Ellie de la Cruz
the one of the biggest rookie namesthat we saw last year. Uh he
finished seventh in the Rookie of theYear voting just because he kind of had
a downwards back half of the yearafter his debut. He kind of fell

(19:51):
off after his he was kind ofon that like two month run where he
was just going absolutely insane. Itfelt like he was he was hitting a
home run or hitting a triple andgetting a third base in like nine seconds
like every day. So he hit. He played ninety eight games last year
and he hit thirteen his His overrunner right now is twenty one and a

(20:14):
half. It kind of depends howyour take on Ellie is for this season,
right is is he going to continueto get better. He's the kind
of guy that it seems like,while he does hit the home runs,
he kind of does everything else.So those those guys with home run pops
I've tended to kind of always stayaway from, you know, those those

(20:37):
guys that can steal bases, thoseguys that get the extra base hits,
like they're not just home run hitters. But I mean, if you think
the power is there for Ellie goingin the year two and then I would
probably lean towards the over there.But twenty one and a half, how
do you feel about that number?See, that's a hard number. I'm
gonna need to see because the onlyday of the Cruz we know is a

(20:59):
very very talented baseball player. Ithink he's very talented. Is average eggs
of velocity is good, He's gotthe strength, he's got speed, like
the he is a five tool player, and he's like one of the best
examples of a five tool baseball player. But the problem for him is and
all everybody was getting so upset becauseyou know, the nerds got a hold
of Eli Da La Cruz numbers andthey were like saying that there's some problems

(21:22):
here, and he was like,no, no, no, no,
no, no, there's not problems, Like, don't ruin a good thing.
But then the end of the seasonyou started to see guy's got problems
with his lawnch angle. He doesnot have a high launch angle and he
has a very very high groundball percentage. I would I'm not saying he can't
ever get over twenty home runs orhe can't get over twenty one and a
half. He has the power toAgain, it's average eggs of velocity,

(21:45):
and his rookie year was solid.I think he was like seventy seventh percent
tile like really good, like veryvery very very good. You know,
when he makes contact, he hitsthe ball hard, but his problem is
it's mostly on the ground. Fiftythree percent is a high groundball percentage number,
So he's gonna have to change that. To me, there's gonna be
some There's gonna need to be somelike tangible changes I need to see at

(22:06):
the plate and numbers I see movefor me to think that he can hit
that. As of now, Iwouldn't even bet the under. Like I'm
not saying I would. I woulddo that, but to me, it's
it's not worth betting the over untilyou find he's making those changes, which
I think he's aware of. Ithink I think every team would have to
be aware of a player that's havinga groundball percentage like that. Yeah,

(22:27):
if it lists the ball a littlebit, he's got the power. And
I think Cincinnati is gonna try andtell him that like, hey, we
gotta we gotta fix this. AndI think they realized right like how how
good he can be. I thinkthat's going again. They are going to
want to change that as quick asthey can, because at baseball, you

(22:48):
get in these habits. And oncehe gets in these habits of just down
cutting right at the ball, it'sit's it could it could turn into an
almost wasted career. Yeah, andhe didn't. He didn't see them leagues
very long. Like he he madehis way up quick, so he started
playing single A. He started hisCincinnati career at the you know, very
low affiliate baseball like twenty nineteen.But then he's up at twenty twenty one

(23:11):
is his first year as single Aand then he makes his debut in twenty
twenty three. So like he that'swhat I mean, there's still his time.
And some guys make changes like latein their minor league careers, like
Reece Hoskins made a late change inhis minor league career that I think,
what was he twenty four twenty fivewhen Hoskins came up and then started to
hit really well, and there waschanges made, Like I think there are

(23:32):
changes that can be made to Eliede la Cruz swing, but I'm gonna
have to see it first before Ican bet on something like that. But
the changes can be made, Likeit's still early enough in his career that
he can make some changes to hisswing and he'll be fine next one.
Juan Soto thirty six and a half. I know we talked about this before
we got on here. New team, new stadium, new completely new situation.

(24:00):
Immediate thoughts over under thirty six anda half. Mine was under minus
two. Mine is under, andI like not by a lot, not
by a lot. I think thestadium favors him for most see so the
stadium does, and I understand that. But he just had he tied his

(24:23):
career high or actually had a careerhigh in home runs last year in thirty
five. It's not like he doesn'tplay. He's been playing in these games.
He's always had really good numbers.And even his year that he had
a one point five ops he onlyhad it was a pandemic year, so
we probably would have had, youknow, very good numbers. Yeah,
I mean he was on track.He was on track pandemic year for forty

(24:47):
seven games. He was on Imean, he was on pace for like
forty pandemic year, so that wouldhave been his career high. Right he
is not really So he's a he'sa very good player. And so this
is a hard one for me becausewhen he first got traded to San Diego,
like that half a year was almostwasted. I think he played like

(25:08):
fifty something games in San Diego.That time is wasted. Just really didn't
catch on in San Diego at first. Then last year it took a long
while for him to finally get going. And once he did, I mean,
the numbers were insane and the shortlike if you saw the run he
was on, like after you ifyou isolated a certain amount of games and
a certain amount of months wan soto put up like ridiculous numbers. So

(25:32):
it's a hard one for me.But he's again moved on to another franchise.
I know right field is going tobe a little bit easier for him.
But still that doesn't I feel likepeople put too much into that,
Like it's not like that's moving hisnumber five to seven home runs, which
if you take out if you usehis average home runs, like he averages

(25:52):
about like high twenties, twenty eightto thirty and so you add five to
seven to that. Then he finallyhits the over what is a thirty six
and a half. That's a lot. I don't think. I don't think
it impacts it all that much.Like if he if he's going to coolers
Field, you know, that's justscience, man, that's science. You
know, it's it's the atmosphere thathas something played one hundred and sixty two

(26:14):
games in course too, I hadone hundred and twenty zero rounds, right,
Like we we know the altitude hasa lot to do with that.
But in Yack said, I don'tthink it makes that much of a difference.
It's gonna it's gonna help him andhe's look at him if you want
to look at it. And inthis factor, right, he played every
game last year and he only hitthirty five. So like, exactly what's

(26:36):
gonna happen when he plays one hundredand forty five next year? Right?
I mean, granted he his hisfirst year with the Yankees. He could
go out and play all one sixtytwo and obviously you never know, these
guys are gonna react in New York. We've seen it so many times now.
He's a great player, he's gonnabe I think he's gonna be fine,
but I don't think he's gonna Idon't know if he's gonna have like
this huge breakout year. I don'tknow if he can repeat, because what

(27:00):
you hope is he can like repeatsome of the things he did early on
in his Washington career. He hada one point ops one year, that's
insane. The next year is apoint nine nine nine, like pretty much
one thousand ops. But since thenhasn't really gotten close to that. And
even when he has gotten close tothat, like the mid nine hundreds,
Uh, it's not really resulted ingetting over this number. So to me,

(27:26):
it's it's very hard if you expectlike this year to just be him
at his at the top of hisgame. Fine, there are so many
factors here to me that would thinkthat he might not actually be able to
get there. Yeah, all right, we got two more here and then
we're gonna run through some other guysquick. Uh, Schwarber over under thirty

(27:48):
nine and a half right now.My immediate thought thinks over, I believe.
I believe believe both years he's beenhere, he's done forty plus.
So I mean that that to me, comes down to once again, I
mean, all these futures really justcome down to if they're out there,
and if Kyle Schwarber's out there likehe's been the last two years, I

(28:12):
see him going over I know yousaid under any any reason or just kind
of Yeah, his slugging has beenHis slugging has been through the roof with
the Phillies, and you know it'sreminiscent to some of the stuff in Chicago
when he was there. Like there'sthere's gonna be a quick not a quick

(28:32):
downturn, but the numbers are goingto progressively just get lower. I think
it's gonna be a difficult year forhim to get forty. Forty's a tough
number, and I know he's reachedit twice in a row, and he's
kind of made it look easy fortysix and twenty twenty two, and then
last year forty seven, like madeit look very easy. And he's near
the top of the leaderboard when itcomes to or at top of the the
odds board when it comes to homeruns. Who can hit the most time

(28:53):
runs in a year. I Ijust think this could be one of those
years that maybe it's not as consistentof home run and we don't get one
of the great power years from KyleSchwarber. Forty's tough to hit, and
the Phillies are lucky that they gottwo very good home run years out of
him. I just have a feelingthat this probably isn't going to be one

(29:14):
of those years. The slugging alreadydipped from twenty twenty two to twenty twenty
three. I honestly, I thinkthose numbers are just gonna like continually dip
in his time in Philly. Notto say he's ever gonna be like so
bad that it's gonna be a problem. It's just that it's hard to repeat
what he's done. It's so amazing. So that means that it's gonna be
a season full of Should Kyle Schwarberstill hitting the lead off spot? Is

(29:37):
what you're saying. We're gonna getthat forever, We're gonna get that well,
and we're gonna get the Is kyleegeShorer even worth having in the lineup
when he's hitting nothing? Now,all the college Shorber stuff that we've heard
for two years now we're gonna hearagain this season. It might be a
little out of there this year becausethe home run numbers have been you know,
it soothed things over for the lastcouple of years because for as much
as the other stuff is bad,he doesn't get on base a lot.

(30:00):
He does get away, say adecent amount, but the contact numbers aren't
good. He doesn't get on baseall that often because of hitting in the
average is really bad. You know, it's it's the very classic not classic,
but like it's the the butting ofheads between the does average actually matter
and hitting matter? Or does justgetting on basic hitting home runs does?
The good thing for Shorebra is he'sbeen very good for the people on the

(30:21):
other side that it just say,look good, solid o BP and a
really good slugging percentage in hitting homeruns. That's it, like all I
need from you. Perfect. ButI think this is one of the years
where it may be a little bittough to say, Okay, well,
are the rewards actually outweighing a lotof the bad stuff here? I still
think it is worth it, andI still think having him in a line

(30:41):
it's great. But this is thisis gonna be a I think a bit
of a not down year. Justagain, I think the numbers are gonna
dip at some point. This thisyear feels like the good spot for it
to happen. Last four Trey Turnertwenty three and a half. Dude,
MVP Tray. There it is.I think d twenty eight total in twenty

(31:03):
twenty one, after what was oneof the most criticized first halfs I think
in that I've ever seen in baseball. Uh, he finished with twenty six,
which is out, which is twoand a half homs over that number
after an abysmal first half. I'mgoing over on this. I may go

(31:25):
way over on this. I anyway, I think he has a chance to
get thirty. Yeah, I thinkthis is a for Trey. Yeah.
I mean Tray's already had you know, peak years. He's been around for
a long time already. He gotfirst got in the majors twenty fifteen.
Rookie year was twenty sixteen, Solike he's been around for a while.
And I know there have been alreadysome peak years, but I still think

(31:48):
there is like one or two leftin him of like insane peak Trey Turner
years. This to me is oneof those. This is a this is
a very like classics, and we'veseen this recently, with a lot of
baseball players that have gotten big contractssigned somewhere else struggle early get good in

(32:08):
the second year, and I thinkTray Turner is the perfect candidate. Before
it, he didn't like lose hisswing. He didn't become a bad baseball
player. The first half of theyear was bad. Second half it was
very telling that this guy still isunbelievably talented and not only has still really
good baseball left, he still mighthave a career year left. Like that's

(32:30):
how good we saw Trey Turner isthat there is a potential for a career
year to still happen with him andfor his his peak as a baseball player
to still peak once again. Ithink it's gonna happen this year, and
I think we're gonna get at leasttwo years sustained of like peak trade Turner
baseball. His OPS is going tobe over nine hundred. I think he's

(32:50):
gonna get close to and probably hitthirty home runs. That's a tough one
because he hasn't done that yet inhis career. He's gotten close. I
think it could do it. Imean, twenty six on runs last year
is ridiculous. I mean the homeruns last year was ridiculous. But I
think he has a chance to notonly hit twenty six again. I think
he has a chance to fly overthat. I really do. I'm I'm

(33:10):
liking trade Turner for MVP. Ithink is stealing numbers are going to be
up. I think his op opsis going to be close to like a
nine to fifty. He had thatwhen he ended up getting traded to the
Dodgers when he was in Washington thatentire year. He had an eight ninety
ops when he was with Washington forone hundred what was that was that one
hundred or ninety six games? Thenfifty two? Uh. He played after

(33:34):
that with the Dodgers at nine tofifty. So like he had like a
nine to thirty something ops. Nineto twenty something ops between those two squads.
That's a high, high, highnumber. So to me, yeah,
he finished at nine to eleven,So nine to eleven's good. He's
gotten at nine to thirty seven beforein his career. This is a guy
that can finish in the high ninehundreds, the mid mid to high nine

(33:55):
hundreds, and I think he doesthat with the Phillies this year. I
mean, if and if he putsa what thirty homers nine hundred, Yeah,
twenty twenty was Washington nine eighty andthat year, if he does that
thirty homers nine to eighty, whathe's gotten twenty eight before. He's gotten
over twenty three times in his career. He's gotten over twenty got twenty twenty

(34:16):
one, he had twenty eight.So he's gotten over twenty three times in
his career. And I think thisis one of those years that it could
be one of maybe his one of, if not his best home run years.
Yeah, And I think we've allkind of it is a very common
thing right now to be on theTrey Turner hype train. I feel like
it's which is something very it is. I think it's cool, like after

(34:39):
all that and now it seems likefrom from like what like six months ago,
it was like this dude stinks tolike this dude may win MVP,
like it flipped and granted, whenyou have in August like that and you
have a playoffs like that, that'sgonna happen. And I think people finally

(34:59):
just started to realize who Trey Turnerwas and who he is, Like that
the guy we saw the first fourmonths last season. That's just not who
try Turner is. If you've ifyou've watched Trey Turner play baseball before last
season, you know that what heshowed you the last three months or the
first three months of that season,it is just not even in the same
universe as what he no. Itjust sucks that, you like, for

(35:22):
the people like us that were like, just wait, it's gonna happen,
Like this guy just didn't forget howto play baseball because everybody's afraid because I
think he's like thirty and everybody's fraythirty. Maybe this is maybe he's on
the Downturner's car again. I don't. I still think there's like a peak
still waiting for Trede Turner, andI think it's gonna happen starting this year.
But it was it was mostly justbe patient because we knew it was

(35:45):
gonna happen. All the people thatreally knew trade Turner was great was gonna
happen, and man, he looknot only was it a be patient and
then he got good. It washoly hell, this guy's like one of
the better hitters in baseball. AndI think he's always been that way.
He's one of the best. Heis truly one of the best. He's
is consistent, He's always been consistent. He is as ad MVY he has

(36:10):
been in MVP discussions before, finishedtop five and MVP in the twenty twenty
one year. I think he's gonnahave Look I'm doing MVP because I think
it's probably the pricing is gonna begood enough. I haven't checked the awards
yet, but I would say TreyTurner for MVP's probably not gonna be a
bad one. Let me see TreyTurner Like, So, Trey Turner MVP
right now is a twenty two toone. I love it. I think

(36:34):
he's going to finish in top topfive. So he is not right now
in the top five of odds forguys that can get the MVP. In
terms of odds, he's like whatone, two, three, four,
five, Yeah, so he's tenth. He's tied for tenth shortest odds.
So to me, he is atop He's going to be a top five
at least MVP candidate this year.So that tells me if I think he's

(36:55):
gonna be top five, he's outsideof that in terms of odds, So
I like it. I think yousee that kind of year. And again
he's finished top seven before top five. In his last year with the Dodgers,
he finished eleventh. But again Ithink he I think he's a guaranteed.
It's a lot to be a topten MVP candidate this year, but
to me, top five is wherehe finished. All Right, there's a

(37:17):
few left here. Let's run aquick hitter on these. Uh, just
over under give me an answer.Francisco Indoor over under twenty seven and a
half under, Jose Altuve over undertwenty four and a half. I'm gonna

(37:37):
go under there as well. JulioRodriguez over under thirty one and a half
over. Yeah, I absolutely lovethat. Yeah, I know, I
know he struggled a little bit lastyear. Remember he is the real deal.
He's and if yeah, and ifthe Mariners ever get like let's get
him some serious help around him,they're gonna be gross for a while.

(38:00):
Yeah. I'm thinking he has likea wildly good year this year. Luis
Robert Junior over under twenty nine anda half under Manny Machado over under thirty
and a half. I saw thisnumber and I was because San Diego is
in such a weird spot. Now, Yeah, this one's weird for me

(38:21):
too. I'm gonna go over justI mean, he's unbelievable baseball player,
so I'll go over. But II don't know the vibes in San Diego,
don't I'm not vibing with Mike Troutthirty and a half under. I
think the back problem is here tostay. It's not gonna go away.
And then I got two more foryou. Ronald Acuna Junior thirty seven and

(38:43):
a half over, he's gonna hitforty and then Pete Alonzo forty two and
a half. That's that's a that'sa spot on number. I feel like,
yeah, I hate that. It'sso good. I got one,
I got one more two after that. For one more two, I'll go,
I'll go over. I think PeteAlonzo has has a really really good

(39:04):
home run. Yeah, I thinkit's closed. He had fifty three in
his first year. I'm not gonnasay he gets to fifty. He's gonna
be damn close to that. Andlastly for the home runs, then we're
gonna really quickly run through the strikeouts. Jordan Alvarez over under thirty seven and
a half, that spot on two. But I will go under. I'm
going I'll go I'll stick with thattheme there under for a little bit because

(39:27):
my thinking with like ill two Vand them again like a bunch of deep
runs. They you know, greatteam, but you know we've seen that
times. It's kind of slowed downa bit and injuries pop up. I'll
just say under, I think it'sa weird year for Houston. Love it
all right, real quick, afterthe hitters, let's roll over to some
pictures real quick. Top of thelist right now, at least the first

(39:51):
name on here, Aaron Nola,now back with the Phillies for seven more
years, over under one hundred andninety five and a half. I could
not believe this number. I amabsolutely taking the over on this number.
Aaron Nola is a two hundred strikeouta year machine. He does not get

(40:15):
hurt. He strikes guys out.No. And the thing about Nola is
even if he's having a bad game, he's still striking people out. Even
in his bad games. Nola isjust a strikeout. He's just a strikeout
pitcher. I mean, we've seenit now. His his whole career,

(40:37):
He's gone over two hundred five times. Last year he had two hundred and
two. The year before he hadtwo hundred and thirty five. The year
before that, he had two hundredand twenty three. First reaction over under
one hundred ninety five and a half. I don't know the first reactions over
just because two hundred and I guess. The only thing I would caution is
there's always going to be a pointto someone's careers, especially as they get

(41:00):
older and the miles start to wearand tear on their arm. Eventually he's
gonna get hurt or eventually he's gonnastart missing some starts. Like nobody is
ever gonna have the clean bill ofhealth that Aaron Nola's had throughout his career.
But it's really hard to project,well, I think it's just gonna
get injured. It's hard to projectthat the guy has proven time and time
again that he can his arm cankind of withstand the mileage, and even

(41:24):
if he struggles getting out, hewill never struggle striking out people. That's
just always a part of his game. His curveball is good enough, has
put out stuff's good enough. It'sjust his fastball is the one that can
get him in trouble, and ifit gets hit hard, then his fastball.
If it all's just gonna depend onif he's getting out to this fastball,
and that's just gonna depend on howhow great of a year he has.

(41:45):
It's very dependent on that, Ishould say. But strike out numbers
are always going to be there.He always is out there and available.
I can't project that he won't be, so I would say over, yeah,
I'm going to be all over theover. That is definitely going to
be one that I'm gonna bet.Next, we'll go to Gerrek Cole,

(42:06):
who in the last three years hasthrown over two hundred and twenty strikeouts.
Obviously, he had that year inHouston where he had three hundred and twenty
six strikeouts and did not win CyYoung, which is kind of crazy to
look back at. But his hishis number right now has said it two
dred and twenty and a half.I don't know, it's that that's kind

(42:30):
of a that's one that I feellike could mess with some people. I
feel like that is one that wethink Geric Cole, We're gonna think over
over over and after three really goodyears, maybe maybe this year is not
his year. Maybe it is,and maybe I'm gonna look like a fool,
and he's gonna haved like two hundredand fifty strikeouts. But right off

(42:54):
the bat, I think I'm leaningto the under right now because it's such
a high number. And of coursehe hit this number like easily, but
it's still the most high number.It's tough because you can't like you can't
stumble once, and that that isa number that you cannot miss three starts.

(43:16):
If you miss three starts in theseason, you do not hit that
number. Like, he has tobe out there, he has to be
pitching well, he has to begoing deep in the starts. It's it's
tough. And again, he's doneit, so he's already proven that he
can do these things. But thereare so many factors that go into having
a two hundred and twenty plus strikeoutyear. So to say that all of

(43:37):
those factors are going to be fine, again, it's so tough. And
again he's probably gonna hit it andprobably gonna be stupid for saying it,
but it's just such a high number. I would I would just have to
say under for that kind of number. If you want to talk high numbers,
let's talk Spencer Strider. Spencer Streidertwo hunt and fifty and a half

(44:02):
over under I it's impossible for meto bet that on and over, like,
I just maybe that's just one Idon't take, right, But like,
I cannot put American dollars on ahuman to throw two hundred and fifty
strikeouts in one season. I can'tdo it. I don't. And maybe

(44:23):
maybe maybe he'll he'll have that GarrettCole twenty nineteen season where he throws over
three hundred and I'll look like anabsolute idiot in like seven months. But
I mean, I don't know.I just I just can't. I cannot
bet a number that high. That'sthe tough part, it said. It's
just so high, it's ballooned upafter a two eighty one strikeout year.

(44:45):
You know, he could be thenext Garrett Cole, which these numbers are
really easily attainable for him. Heonly did it in one hundred and eighty
six innings too, man Like GarrettCole pitched two hundred and nine and had
two twenty Like this is one hundredeighty six innings. The strikeout per numbers
are ridiculous, thirteen and a halfstrikeouts per nine and ridiculous. He has

(45:07):
four point eight four strikeouts for everywalk. So look, even even if
there is a dip in in qualitythere, and let's just say, you
know that that does regress and he'slike a twelve or eleven strikeout per nine,
you know, all he's gotta do. I think he showed that he's
durable by the end of the year. Even last year in the playoffs,

(45:29):
I think I thought he was pitchingwell against the Phillies, like he's still
he's still had a stuck, he'sstill guess and we look at the Cassiano's
home run and whatever. But likehe he he gave us, He gave
us some trust. He was reallygood. He gives everyone trouble. So
I thought towards the end, theproblem in his first year was you ran
out of gas, And so Ithink we're seeing this year, can the

(45:49):
arms stay healthy? Can he stillyou know, have the type of velocity
and have the quality of pitches.Towards the end of the year, I
think he passed that with flying colors. So let's just say he does if
he gets to one eighty six again, and then even past that, let's
just say he can get close totwo hundred innings. If he does that,
and even if he has slight regressionnumbers with the strike up for nine

(46:14):
or not even slight, let's justsee as a full like uh one or
two dip in his strike up fornine numbers, he could still fly over
that. I mean, he mayhave three hundred if he pitches two hundred
innings like if I mean if thatwould be adding he is if you if
you say if if there is regression, but he's still close to a thirteen
strike up for nine and he's likesomewhat similar in that regard, and he

(46:37):
pitches like one hundred and ninety fiveto two hundred innings, that number is
flying over with absolute ease flying overit. Yeah, So like it's a
high inning. It allies on theinnings late, it's it's hal late.
He stays in games, but it'snot relying on that many innings. You

(47:02):
know, like Garrett Cole need twounred nine innings to get two undred and
twenty something strikeouts last year, Imean one hundred and eighty six to get
two hundred and eighty one. Solike even if there is like again,
you know, you you give somesome give and take on the innings pitched
or the strikeout for nine. Eitherway, it still averages out to probably

(47:25):
going way over that number. SoI it's hard, and any injury,
anytime miss can completely screw that over. But we saw the durability there,
we saw the quality stay all seasonlong. I honestly, I think Specer
Schreider, I think he flies overthe number again. I think you're seeing
another It could be close to threehundred, but I'm gonna say, to

(47:49):
a ballpark number of like two seventytwo ninety, that's crazy. In a
one hundred, in one hundred andeighty five, it is all right.
We got one more across the league, and then one more Philly. Yoshinobu
yamamode one hundred and seventy two anda half obviously the biggest pitcher signing of

(48:14):
this offseason going out to LA.You can say whether he's gonna be the
one, whether he's going to bethe two. He's not. I don't
think he's gonna start opening Day.But I I don't know where to go
with this. I this is definitelyone that I'm kind of back and forth

(48:36):
with. I just don't I don't, I don't know how it's going to
translate over to the major leagues.It's it's a weird number for his situation.
If if this was a really goodpitcher that is known for strikeouts,
and then that's a good number.But I think the number has to be
low because we've never seen him pitchedin Major League Baseball. Right, he's

(48:59):
pitched, He's pitched in Japan.Wow, everybody thinks it's going to translate
over. Well, we don't knowthat one. So one hundred and seventy
two and a half what are youthinking there? So the hard part is
that there is like a transition periodfor pitchers going from Japan or overseas into

(49:22):
Major league baseball. The difference inhis case is he's extremely talented, so
that is it's just one thing wedon't know. Does the talent immediately end
up working or is it going totake some time? Show Hey, it
was a lot easier for him asa batter than it was for a hitter.

(49:43):
I remember that he was still goodpitching, but he really came into
his own really the last couple ofyears pitching. He's dealt with some various
injuries pitching, but it's mostly beenbecause he's also just had to get better
as a pitcher. So there mightbe a period where Yamamoto to get a
little bit better, or there's atransition and how he pitches in the in

(50:04):
over from Japan League into Major LeagueBaseball, It's it's a tough one.
I just think the transition is reallytough. And there's multiple things to think
of off the field as well.You know, being into a completely new
country, all that stuff has afactor into it. We just talked about
guys moving into a different stadium withthe different organization and different approaches, and

(50:25):
like, how tough that is.A completely different country, different language.
You know, baseball still the samethough. I still think he's gonna be
good. It's just is that transition. How long is that gonna take?
If it does take long, andI would worry about that last one.
Zach Wheeler one hundred and ninety threeand a half. Does he stay healthy?

(50:46):
Yes, if he's if he stayson the field, I think he
goes over the number because he goesHe goes deep into games just when he's
available, he pitches a lot.It's just we he hasn't been look vailability.
He's actually been pretty good. Theproblem is like he's either started seasons
where he had an injury in springtraining and it lingered into the start of

(51:07):
the season, so we kind ofgot a late start, or injuries throughout
the year that pop up nothing likelong term, but it's popped up enough
that kind of just worry that canhe consistently be out there each and every
game. But I think, Ithink if he does, it's close,
because I know his strike up fornine isn't even near like Aaron Nola's if

(51:27):
if I'm remembering correctly, Yeah,no it's not. And it's just yeah,
Aaron Nola's strike up for nines areactually pretty good, but for him,
it's mostly he goes late in thegames almost all the time when he's
out there, and so he's goingto be close. I would say no,
I'd say under on that, butI know that's a pretty few number.
So Wheeler's been here for three fullseasons. He's thrown two hundred and

(51:52):
thirteen innings in twenty twenty one,one hundred and fifty three in twenty twenty
two, and one hundred and ninetytwo and twenty twenty three. He went
two hundred and forty seven strikeouts intwenty one, he won one hundred and
sixty three, the year where hemissed like five or six starts, and
then last year had two hundred andtwelve. So, like you said,

(52:14):
if Wheeler stays on the field,he's probably going to hit the over.
It's just a matter of And Ithink last year was going into that season,
him and Nola got off to arough start, and it was it
was it was it was known thattheir arms were burnt out in October from
the fall before, right they hadthey had a tough start to the beginning
of last year. I think they'regonna be more used to it. I

(52:36):
think this is a number where Itend to lean towards the over. But
if and I and I think itdepends, right if you get that in
quote contract year Wheeler, which atthe rate we're going, seems like that's
probably going to happen there. There'sbeen some some thoughts that the Phillies want
to get this contract done, butnothing really big rumors yet. So if

(53:00):
that contract does go into the endof this season, Zach Wheeler is going
to be pitching for more money,right, And I think he knows that
in the back of his head,and I think that's what Aaron Nolan knew
last year, so I would tendto lean the over there. Yeah,
I think it's fair because also you'reyou're right about last year getting a slow
start. Both did, and that'sjust deep run. Zach Wheeler came into

(53:21):
twenty twenty two with an injury,so he's had these like really slow starts
and still has been able to putup like good numbers because I remember two
years ago twenty twenty two and iswhen he had a spring training injury,
and in April of March he hadI'm looking at now, he had four
starts and in those four starts hehad a five point seven nine ERA,
gave up eighteen hits and eighteen andtwo thirds innings and twelve and runs in
eighteen and two thirds innings. Soit's been slow starts for him for a

(53:45):
couple of years now. If heis consistent healthy from game one to the
finish line, he's gonna get overthat number. It's just that the last
two years it hasn't happened. Andyou know, I'm not to say it
can, but that's just been aproblem that's been plaguing him, at least
for the past couple of years.This is what happens when you give two
baseball nerds microphones. We talked fornearly an hour on if guys are going

(54:08):
to hit home runs or guys aregoing to strike people out. Yeah,
I was not expecting that. Thisis me not waffling around, but having
my brain firing off. Oh yeah, remember that from last year, a
couple of years ago, and lookingup these numbers and refreshing myself on a
lot of these numbers. If youwere watching on Twitter on your phone and
we're not able to refresh over thelast fifty four minutes, you have missed

(54:31):
that Joel Embid has a tornmentiscus tyresmaxi is an All Star reserve and the
Washington commanders have interest as a potentialcandidate for Chip Kelly coordinator. That's when
the Embid injury doesn't surprise meus.We knew it was going to be somewhat
bad. It's such at least comingback about embiid because they're saying, so

(54:58):
it's an injured lateral meniscus in hisleft knee. But they they're saying we'll
be out through the weekend. That'swhat they're thing there. They're still so
I think he's going to be outthrough the weekend and they're going to weigh
their options during make their decisions.I don't I don't think right, So
I don't think that means he comesback after the weekend. It's okay,
here's a firm decision on timeframe ofwhen he's out, how our plan of

(55:20):
attack for him to rehab or getthis injury to be better. So two
weeks isn't the worst. No,it could be a worse. I would
say, probably you're waiting till likeafter All Star break. Yeah, I
mean ideally, right now, theMVP is out the window. If if
you put them on the bench tillafter the All Star break, MVP has

(55:43):
been gone. Don't bet him.I think on draft case he's probably going
to be off the board now.But he's like I think you guys said
earlier, he was like twenty toone earlier, earlier now or something like
that. But Jo was officially nice, still fit fifty to one. Fifty.
Don't bet it, do not betit. It's a crime that he's

(56:06):
up there still. Well, John, thank you, thank you for nerding
out the last hour. Thank youfor helping me brush up on some baseball
knowledge. Yeah, I mean weneed it. We're only two weeks away
here from pitchers and catchers. I'lltell you what it felt. It felt
good. It's good, man.It is the best today. It is
the best time of the year atJay Jansen thirty four on Twitter, co

(56:27):
host Daily Ticket Sean Brace three tosix Monday to Friday on Fox Sports The
Gambler. A lot of live showswe've been we've been doing here us.
I know Tansy Coyle Janson hopped onthe day. They've been doing a lot
of college basketball stuff, a lotof live shows, a lot of things
coming your way here from Fox Sportsto Gambler. I am Luke Rcaney uh

(56:49):
And this was another episode of Lukeand I on the Phillies