Luke & I on the Phillies Ep. 22: Locking in MLB Futures -- 2/23/24

Phillies Insider Luke Arcaini and Mark Henry Jr. are locking in futures for the 2024 #MLB season.

Episode Transcript

(00:00):
Ladies and gentlemen, Welcome back toanother episode of Luke and I on the
Phillies, now officially brought to youby In the Clutch, the only place
to get your favorite teams gear,T shirt, hoodies, headbands, including
a custom made headband by Liam Castianoswith you know, Nick marsh Harper Stott

(00:22):
all drawn on the headband. They'vegot all of it. In the Clutch.
Used code r Kenny Luke at checkout for ten percent off. I
am Luke Arcaney, one of theco hosts, usually with Sean Brace,
but the last few weeks we've kindof been bouncing around different people from the
Gambler. But I know a fellowSIKO that loves baseball and advanced stats and

(00:43):
MLB futures. So I thought therewas no better time to bring Mark Henry
Junior back on the show. Mark, how are you? I'm doing good?
Doing Good? Had a day offtoday, so I was able to
kind of dive deep on some collegebasketball futures, to lock in on some
and then on some MLB future.It's a little weird with you know,
Blake Snell, Cody Bellinger, JordanMontgomery, Matt Chapman. Maybe it's some

(01:07):
other guys I'm not even naming,but just all sitting out there. It
feels like you almost have to factorit in a little bit, figuring out
what teams are likely to at leastget one of them. But besides that,
I'm ready for this to go.It feels like they do have to
figure this out though. Yeah,it's it's kind of like just turned into
such a weird waiting game now thatit's. At first, I thought it

(01:33):
was a one of them doesn't wantto sign first because they want more money
than the other, which is nowturned into a neat both of them kind
of look like idiots. And there'swhat thirty one, thirty two days still
opening day and they're still not ona team, those guys being Cody Bellinger,
Blake Snell, and Jordan Montgomery thebig three right now. Matt Chapman

(01:53):
too, or am I am Iwrong? Matt Chapman. Yeah, Chapman
as well, But so those reallyfour guys right now are basically teamless with
just about a month ago, Icouldn't tell you the last time four big
names like that haven't have still beenon the market this late. Uh.
Obviously, Harper was kind of alater signing in the offseason the year he

(02:16):
signed with the Phillies, but butnot this late. So we are going
to dive into uh some futures herefirst, but I do want to kind
of just grasp how you're feeling rightnow. We're what four or five days
in this in this in the springtraining, you know, some some some
content starting to come out. We'reseeing guys kind of throwing some bullpens,

(02:38):
some some pitches. We've seen someangles of you know, Ryan kirkering stuff
in the new year. How areyou feeling about the Phills we could say
roster and just kind of in generalright now. I feel better about the
Phillies every time I look at therest of the NL that that's kind of
where I'm at. Every time Ilook at the middle of the n L

(02:59):
and what that she be up tolook like, I feel better about the
fact that the Phillies undeniably have atop four roster in the NL and pretty
undeniably a top ten roster in baseball. Is not a top seven to eight
roster in baseball. I think theyprobably have the third best roster in the
NL, And you know, that'sit's a shame that the Braves definitely have

(03:21):
the first or second and that wehave to deal with that. But yeah,
I mean I wish they would haveobviously done a little bit more this
off season to excite us. Evenjust something as simple as bringing in a
Hector n Aris type would have beennice. With Maryfield is a nice pickup.
But yeah, I'm definitely feeling ready. By the way, I just
looked it up out of curiosity.Nick Castiana signed on March twenty second,

(03:45):
which it feels like that was somuch earlier than well, was that was
the that was the lockout? Correct? So twenty twenty two was that the
lockout? That was the lockout offseason, I think? And then and
then Bright season started a little later, right, Yeah, I think you're
right. And then Bryce was Februarytwenty eighth, which, yeah, so
Brice right around now. Yeah,and that was also one of those things

(04:06):
where we kind of even earlier.Why did I think Bryce was earlier than
Yeah, this time feels later forsome reason. Yeah, I do think
Manford's right, By the way,Manfred a guy who I know takes a
lot of crap from everybody, He'sright that it's they They're gonna have to
figure out some way to contain thislike free agency to one to two weeks.
It's something that helps the league.It's something that you know, if

(04:29):
you have one to two weeks onthe calendar in the off season where people
have to pay attention and talk aboutthe hot stove the same way that they
do around the deadline. That it'skind of like one of the ten polls
of the MLB season is the deadline, Like you kind of gear up for
that week before that two weeks beforeand talk about the hot stove and talk
about all the guys that are available, who's a buyer, who's a seller.
If you could do that again inthe off season, it would just

(04:51):
be good for baseball to be apart of the national conversation in a way
that it really only gets to be, you know, opening Day, the
deadline, and then the playoffs andmaybe sometimes the chase for the playoffs at
the end of the year, dependingon who's involved. It's it's just I
know that it's never gonna fly withthe players union, but it's something they
have to do. No, it'sbecause it's it's just gonna be another you

(05:14):
know, restriction on the players thatI think we saw two off seasons ago
that these players don't like having restrictionson them. Granted I would neither if
I was a player, but Ialso don't think anybody should be signing going
into the month of March with youknow, three weeks left before opening day.
But with that being said, let'sjump on over to some futures,

(05:39):
which is kind of the whole reasonwe're here tonight. We kind of look
today. I know, I knowyou said you had off, so you
kind of took some time today lookingat mainly some over unders on on win
totals, but we do have someplayer awards as well. I know,
me and John Janson we're talking aboutsome player props a few weeks ago,

(06:00):
and and we had some ideas onteam over unders. But I want to
kind of go down this list herethat we have, so right off the
bat, we both have Dodgers.Dodgers over one hundred and three and a
half wins. That is the highestnumber on the board. The Dodgers and

(06:24):
the Braves are the only two teamsin baseball with a number over one hundred,
So we're both kind of on thatover there. I mean, I
can get your thoughts on it,but I think that's just probably partially because
they're probably gonna be the best regularseason team on paper and probably out on

(06:45):
the field. Yeah. I mean, they could lose like three or four
guys and they'd have the team thatwent that won one hundred games last year.
I mean, it is astounding howgood this team is. And it
doesn't mean they're going to go andwin the NL or go and win the
World Series. Playoffs are a differentanimal. But I don't see any way
that this team isn't dominant in theregular season. For the last five years,
they've won one hundred and six plusgame or at least. When I

(07:09):
always say that the strike shortened year, I just count the win percentage and
I extrapolate that to one sixty two. But for the last five years,
they would have won one hundred andsix plus games. Looking at the percentage,
five of the last seven years onehundred and four plus games. Even
last year, which was a downyear that they were clearly gearing up to
go and sign some dudes Otani Onmotoother guys. Obviously, they were clearly

(07:30):
gearing up for that last year andnot spending quite as much money as they
had in years past. They stillwon one hundred games. I mean,
this is a team that suffered throughjust a rash of pitching injuries last year
and still were able to do thatmainly throwing like three fits of their rotation
as just like kind of guys theypicked up throughout the year or minor league
guys that they brought up throughout theyear. I think the Dodgers are going

(07:55):
to be just, you know,just a machine. Yeah. I mean
anytime you put right and I thinkwith with the whole Otani thing, now,
obviously he won't be pitching this year, but I mean you put Otani
on that team, right, it'syou're gonna that's gonna win you probably five
or six more games than you didlast year. So that that seems like

(08:16):
kind of an easy one. Eventhough that number is really high. I
mean they could they could be maybeclose to one ten. I think they're
gonna have a pretty pretty unbelievable regularseason. Granted, none of that matters
once you get to the playoffs,but for our sake, I guess all
of that matters. So next nextteam here, we both do have the

(08:37):
over, or we do at leastdo like the over. Uh is the
Diamondbacks eighty three and a half.I thought that number was kind of low,
uh for a team that won wentto the World Series last year,
and two I thought had a prettygood off season. They got a ward
of Rodriguez into their rotation. Uh, they added Peterson, I think two

(09:01):
pretty big ones there, and theystill have Zach Gallon going out and throwing
every five days. I think ifthey if the guy that you have winning
NL MVP plays to the MVP,I think they're going to cruise over this
total. I mean, I think, where's your head out head at there?
Because that that that's kind of whereI'm at is. I think if

(09:24):
if you get the season that youthink Corbyn Carroll, then I think this
is a really low number for them. Yeah, I don't get the number.
I think it should be up,you know, upper eighties. They
won eighty four last year with ayoung team that I expect to continue getting
better a lot of which at leastand Corbin Carroll I expect to keep getting
better. I mean, Brandon Fottwas terrible in the regular season, had

(09:46):
a couple of good leaks to endof the year, and it was great
in the playoffs down the stretch,and obviously he was a big time prospect
to expect him to kind of keepit going. And now he has to
be the four instead of the threebecause they brought in Edward of Rodriguez.
They he did a lot of movesthis offseason with guys I just specifically really
like, like Eduardo Rodriguez has alwaysbeen a guy I've liked to bet on.

(10:07):
Really, I mean, what anumber three to add the Gallon and
Kelly, That's that's just an awesomerotation, especially when you have fought right
there at four and then number fiveis kind of a kind of up for
grabs. But they added Jock Peterson, Who's a guy that I've wanted the
Phillies to add for his entire career. I love that guy. I think
he adds much needed pop. Ifthere was anything that Arizona needed in that

(10:28):
offense, it's a little bit ofpower, which Jock Peterson and Eugenio Suarez
are like perfect for Eugenia Suarez anotherguy I've always really liked for fantasy,
Like just a lot of guys thatthey even Randall Grishicks guy I've always liked.
Do they add it as a pieceon the bench, like they just
have a lot of dudes. They'rereally solid. They're also if you just
ranked the units for the NL inoffense, starting, pitching, and rotation,

(10:50):
they're probably like top five in eachof them, if not top four
in each of those units. Likethe bullpen, they've got five guys that
are like probably fifty relievers in baseball. So I just think Arizona is gonna
be like a ninety ninety one winteam. I think they're a lock for
the playoffs, yeah, making themprobably, so that'll be interesting. That'll

(11:11):
be a close If you think ninetythen that that that'll probably put the Phillies
and the Diamondbacks in a pretty closeone spot chase for the wild card there.
Yeah, I had the Phillies atninety two wins and the Diamondbacks at
ninety, So I would have themfacing off in the four or five in

(11:31):
the first round of the playoffs,which would give us all nightmares. By
the way, not to my pickin the NL would probably be the Phillies
or the Braves or the Dodgers,but I will say Diamondbacks forty to one
to win the World Series for ateam that went to the World Series last
year, a team that just gotall those pieces I just mentioned. Kept

(11:54):
all the guys that were instrumental inthat run. I mean really, the
only guy that they really lost islike Tommy fam I just think I and
they replaced him with Jock. It'slike, I prefer Jock for sure.
Remember when Jock was a Philly forlike six hours, Don't get me started.
Those were Those were a great dancingon my own, those are a

(12:15):
great six hours. And Jock Peterwhat a troll. I've always wanted him
so badly on the field. He'sjust a guy that I think that we
would fall in love with as afan base. I think it would be
hilarious. Yeah, my guy Prazfrom Twitter has a couple a couple of
comments here, Marky Snakes with thed Backs love you popped up top two

(12:37):
Phaser, Judge and Soda. Yeah, we'll talk about al MVP for sure.
He mentioned Corey Seeger as his mention. But we'll definitely get into that
for sure. But yeah, I'mall over the d Backs and I mean
we'll talk about that with my withmy player rewards as well. Yeah,
next team. Really, I don'tthink we have any more of the same
overs I have the astros, Ican run down my other three right now,

(13:01):
Astros, I'm just gonna continue tobet their over on wins, like
until they prove that they're not agood baseball team. That's just kind of
where I'm at with the Ashers,Like, I feel like they're just gonna
find ways to win games every singleyear. Uh. Their lineup is great,
their pitching is great, and thatusually wins you a lot of games.
They're they're gonna find their way backto the top. I think they're

(13:22):
gonna win the Aos this year.They might pick to win the World Series.
Yeah, as of right now.Obviously the Yankees adding Snell, that
could that could factor in a littlebit. If the Yeah, if they
do, if the Dodgers had anotherpiece, you know, you never want
to count that out. If theBraves at another piece, maybe if the
Phillies go out and add another piece, maybe that that could change. But
as of right now, if Ihad to, you know, if I

(13:45):
had to make a pick, itwould be the Askers. Yeah, the
Astros are the chiefs of baseball.That's a great, it's a great.
Here's a hypothetical for you. Ifthe Phillies were to go sign one of
Jordan Montgomery or Blake Snell would wouldthey be your to win the World Series?
They wouldn't be the best roster,but I would probably pick them just

(14:05):
because I think having Nola Wheeler andone of those guys would just be so
deadly if you could get to aplayoff series. I don't think any team
in the MLB would have a threethat you could that you could put with
that. Now, there's a lotof teams that can say that if you
if you add Snell and montm Snellin Montgomery to a lot of teams top
two, you could say that,Like if you're the Yankees, you could
say, you know, if CarlosRoding and I will say, like,

(14:26):
this is just a tangent. Peopleare talking about Carlos ro Doing like he's
like a lost cause at this point. It's like he was like a top
five pitcher like in twenty twenty two. Yeah, and like like kind of
injury mixed with like mechanical stuff,Like I think he's gonna be fine.
Yeah, I mean, people,I don't think he'll be back to what
he was in San fran But Imean maybe he could be right, but

(14:48):
I don't maybe, But yeah,I'm just saying there's a lot of teams
like that that could say, likeif you add Snell to their top two,
you'd feel like there's no one elsethat can compete with it. But
yeah, I really do think.You know, we've seen the team compete
in the playoffs. We've seen theteam win in the playoffs. If you
added a guy like Sneer Montgomery tothe number three in Rangers, now you're
number four, Like, that's justthat's a crazy top four. Yeah.

(15:13):
My next team was the Orioles.I just think the Orioles are going to
be good again. I think they'refun, they're young, they're good.
I think Adley, as we cansee, we'll touch it later. I
love those odds for Adli to getthat MVP twenty five to one. I
think that's a good chance to takeon a player who is just only going

(15:33):
to get better every single year thathe plays. Orioles from me right now,
eighty nine and a half, they'rethey're kind of in the same boat
as the Phillies for me. Aslong as they don't get off to a
bad start, I think they'll cruiseover the number. I think the Orioles
could be closer to one hundred winsthan ninety when it's all said and done,
I think they're just a really goodbaseball team. I think they're fun,

(15:56):
and I think they're starting to reallyget this core right now that I
think they know is kind of gonnabe there for a long time. Especially
if Jackson Holliday is up at anypoint this season, They're gonna have a
sick middle infield for the next tento fifteen years. And then my last
team is the Phillies over eighty nineand a half, I have the Phillies
hit ninety three wins this season.I think something they're stressing this offseason is

(16:21):
getting off to a hotter start,and I think having Bryce for the full
season, not having Kyle Schwarber hitlike point oh five in the first two
months of the year. If thisteam could just get off and play five
hundred baseball the first two months ofthe year, just five hundred, they
don't even have to go twenty gamesover five hundred. If they can simply
just play five hundred baseball up untilJune, I think they're going to get

(16:45):
this number pretty easy, ninety threeto ninety four wins. I mean,
they've been they've been flirting around theninety mark for the last few years,
and they were like eleven games underfive hundred at one point last season.
So really, for me, thePhillies Orioles and Ashtars, that's my main
three on the overs, other thanthe ones that we've agreed on. Well

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yeah, I mean, with allthe struggles that the Phillies had last year,
they must have finished with what likeeighty three wins eighty four wins?
Right, Oh no, they finishedwith ninety like every one. The way
that people talk about last year,it still drives me nuts. Like they
got hot in the playoffs. Therewas four teams in baseball at one more
games than they were. From fromJune to October, they were consensus top
five team in baseball. Like,they weren't just some team twenty twenty two.

(17:32):
They were a team that got hotthat they were a team that snuck
in, got hot whatever. Lastyear. They were a consensus top five
team in baseball all season. Buteven that with twenty twenty two. Once
once you got out of the twentyfive and thirty five or wherever it was,
they were the best team in baseballfrom that time forward, like for
like, and that's a pretty longstretch, like for like one hundred game
stretch, they were either the bestor the second best team in baseball that

(17:55):
year. So yeah, I thinkthe Phillies should win ninety three games.
I think, like it is funnyhow much I'm just like, I'm just
ignoring the fact, like the firstthree quarter of the year Tray Turner or
whatever you want to say, thefirst half of the year Tray Turner last
year. I'm pretending that guy doesn'texist. I think Trey Turner is just
going to be Trey Turner. Iactually think his MVP odds are like worth
taking a sniff at at plus sixteenhundred. But I fully expect Trey to

(18:21):
be Trey. Bryce Harper to befull on power version of Bryce Harper.
It's not gonna be a guy whomisses the first two months and then doesn't
have power for a month or twoafter that until after the All Star break.
So I think you're getting MVP Bryceall year long this year, which
you know JT. Real Muto justfound a hole in his swing apparently,
So yeah, I think there's thatthat would be big for them. That's

(18:44):
I've said the last three weeks multipletimes. The offense goes when when JT
goes like they they play the bestand and if that's truly a hole that
they found, then this lineup couldbe good. Yeah. And then there's
the propaganda today about Schwarber. They'relike, we think he can hit to
sixty five again, like because hedid a couple of years least. Hey

(19:07):
like, oh oh my god ifI, oh man, I would be
unbearable if Kyle Schwarber hit two sixtyfive next season. Unbearable? Is it
like sacrilegious to say that. I'dkind of rather Kyle Schwarber hit two ten
with like an eight fifty ops thanlike two seventy with like an eight sixty

(19:29):
ops. Just because I like.I like the argument. I like I
like the people who don't understand likeI like. I like the people who
would look at him at two sixtywith an eight sixty ops and be like,
that's a ballplayer. And the guyswho would say, like two five
batting average eight fifty ops and belike, get him off my team.
I always like the Kyleege s Warberconversation, Yeah, all right, what

(19:51):
do you got here? Uh?So you have three more in the overs
that we didn't talk about. Iknow one you're really confident about. Yeah,
Brewers are kind of the team thatI've been kind of pumping up all
off season, and I know,not fun. They are their their total
seventy six and a half for areason. They sold Corbyn Burns. They're
like a soldess organization. They losttheir GM, their managers gone, but

(20:17):
Corbyn Burns is pretty much all theylost, like from the team. Like
besides that, it was an ittwo win team and Corbyn Burns did miss
some time too at times. LikeI think Milwaukee was better than just Corbyn
Burns. I don't think that they'regoing to get seventeen games worse than they
were last year. People are reallyexpecting Milwaukee to kind of be a seller

(20:38):
at the deadline. Usually these likeMidwest, Middle America, non big market
teams don't really tank, like theydon't fully sell, like they're kind of
content being an eighty to eighty twowin kind of team and hanging in there
and getting their fans to come outfor the summer and now really you know,

(21:00):
keeping ticket, you know, attendance, you know steady. I just
I don't see Milwaukee as like afully selling it situation. Like they just
signed that deal with Woodriff to waitthe year until Woodriff comes back from from
his injury. They signed a shortterm deal with Reeze Hoskins that I don't
think you'd sign if you weren't interestedin competing at least, Like you have

(21:22):
a lot of guys there with Milwaukee, Like you look at the roster and
I think people are really kind ofcounting them out when the Central has almost
become like, oh, are youpicking the Cardinals? Are you picking the
Reds or are you picking the Cubs? And I think the Brewers are right
there. They've won eighty six plusgames in the last six seasons, or
at least the last six full seasons. They're plus eight hundred to win a

(21:44):
bad and all Central. I justthink that's a crazy, crazy number.
You still have Yellows at the topof the lineup Contreres, Willia Domas,
Reeze Hoskins, obviously we love them, and then you have a potential star
upside in Jackson Surio, who you'rehopefully going to play opening day day one?
Is I know Yelich is kind ofbeing vocal about that that he wants

(22:04):
them to play from day one.Freddy Peralta, who I think a lot
of people look at as like anumber two, number three. He's turned
himself into like a top fifteen ishpitcher. If you look at some Fantasy
Baseball rankings, Miley and junis prettysolid as a two and three of one
of the You have the best closerin baseball, probably in Devin Williams or
if not, you know, topfive. You have a lot of guys.

(22:25):
They are my pick to win thedivision. I think the Brewers win
that division again, and I thinkit's going to surprise people. I love
it and actually have the Blue Jays. What do you got? Why?
What are you thinking here? Tobe honest, so, I think the
Yankees and Astros are the class ofthe AL. I think that the two

(22:45):
best teams, two best rosters,they're going to win those divisions. To
me, Toronto, Baltimore, Seattle, Texas I think are all the same.
Like I think they're all roughly exactlythe same. The problem with that,
there's only gonna be three spots forthose four teams. What I have
is I have Toronto, Baltimore,and Seattle all winning ninety one games,
and I have Texas winning ninety andmissing the playoffs. So I have a

(23:07):
team that gets in the playoffs andthe AL wins over ninety yeah, I
think other than your AL Central.Yeah, the Twins either twins at eighty
seven, either Twins down at eightyseven eighty seven games. You look at
that loaded, that's a loaded league. You look at last year, That's
how it played out, because theRangers got the last wildcard spot at ninety
wins to sneak into the playoffs.Yes, and the Blue Jays got left

(23:30):
out with eighty nine. I thinkSeattle got left out with eighty eighty eight
if I'm not mistaken. Tampa wasright there at eighty nine to ninety.
Yeah. I think it's going tobe very similar. I have Texas winning
the exact same amount of games aslast year but missing out on the playoffs.
But Blue Jays and Mariners are thelowest totals of those teams, both
set at eighty six and a half. And I don't really understand why,

(23:52):
Like you look at the last coupleof years for these teams who are pretty
much roughly the same, The BlueJays are like pretty much ex actually the
same, except that they have JustinTurner instead of instead of Matt Chapman.
They've won eighty nine to ninety twoand ninety one games over the last three
years. I feel like people aredown on them because they haven't won in
the playoffs. But this is stillthe you know, the same young team

(24:15):
that's won eighty nine to ninety twogames three years in a row, and
we're setting them at eighty six anda half in division, where I think
the Rays and Red Sox both gotworse than they at least have been over
that stretch, over the breath ofthat stretch. So I think Blue Jay's
over eighty six and a half issolid, and then Mariners same kind of
thing. They've won eighty eight,ninety and ninety games over the last three
years. Both of these teams havebeen consistent kind of in that range,

(24:37):
so I think both teams are kindof will go over that eighty six and
a half number. Yeah, let'smove on onders, because I have some
teams I really don't like this year. My first teams, the Marlins.
They added Tim Anderson today, whichI think is a good move. I
think if for that price, Ithink if Anderson can kind of find that

(25:02):
again from what he had a fewyears ago, I think that's gonna be
a nice move for the Marlins.I still don't think that's gonna really push
them into a playoff race, becauseany bit of it not working out just
kind of tanks them. I justdon't think the Marlins are I think last
year was kind of a fluke ear. I think they were just kind of

(25:22):
putting together a nice run of reallyclose one games, and then if it
wasn't close, they were kind ofgetting blown out. They obviously lost Alcon
Tar for the whole season. Canyou go a whole season with Jesuslizardo and
Braxton Garrett. I don't know.The Marlins are gonna have to find that

(25:45):
out. I don't. I don'treally like any bit of this over the
under seventy eight and a half Forme right now is is a play that
I really like. And then theRed Sox. I just don't think the
Red Sox are good. I thinkthey're selling. I think they're going kind
of towards this rebuild. I thinkit's just like Raffi and just kind of
everyone else around them. I justthink they're gonna kind of have almost a

(26:08):
disastrous year. Any sort of thingI've seen from Big Red Sox names.
Every single tweet from Jared Caravas isjust absolute, just in shambles, like
some comment from the owner saying thatwe'll get it eventually or just something along
those lines. This just has disastrousyear written all over it for the Red

(26:33):
Sox. I don't see. Really, I could probably name you like three
good players on their baseball team rightnow. It's just not anything that I
am going to write home about,especially at a total of seventy nine and
a half. And then the Giants. I think we're both kind of on
this Giants under just a team likewe talked about earlier. I think they're

(26:56):
gonna be worse without Gabe Kapler aswell. I think eighty one maybe if
they win eighty one, hey,that's fine. A five hundred year for
me is completely fine as long asit's not eighty two. But I just
don't I don't think they're a goodbaseball team as well. I think they're
just continually in this thing of they'regonna try and go get these huge names

(27:17):
and then they're gonna get their hopesup and they're not gonna come here and
until they make that really big splash, I think they're just gonna be mediocre.
Yeah, I don't even think they'regonna be mediocre. I'll save a
little bit of a hot take formaybe to end the show. But the
Giants is my favorite win total ofthe that I can really ever remember in

(27:38):
the MLB. To be quite honest, it is this Giants under eighty one
and a half. They've won seventynine and eighty one games the last two
years with one of the best managersin baseball in my opinion, in Gabe
Kapler. And I know that peoplewon't want to hear that, but the
reason that this number is inflated isbecause they overperformed their roster and one hundred

(28:00):
and seven games in twenty twenty onewith Gabe Kapler. Before that, they
went below five hundred in the strikeshort to twenty twenty. They want seventy
seven, seventy three and sixty fourgames in the years before that they've won,
or they've went over five hundred inone of the last seven years,
and it was the year that theywon one hundred and seven games the Giant.
This is inflated because people remember twentytwenty one, people remember the nine

(28:23):
to sixteen stretch, and they're like, Oh, the Giants, consistent organization,
they do things the right way.They win, they don't spend,
they don't spend like the Dodger likepeople, just like the Giants that I
think this is always over inflated,and I think that they are going to
really feel the wrath of losing GabeKapler. And I know that they added
you know, or hey, Solaire, I know that they added Jung Huli

(28:47):
from Japan, that they added JordanHicks, who's going to be a starter
for them, But look at theirstarting rotation. You got Logan Webb,
who's a guy who's obviously very verygood. After that, Kyle Harrison,
Jordan Hicks, Tristan Beck, KestonWin. What are we doing? Like
that is a that's dunsterfire. Imean that that's brutal Camilla. I will

(29:10):
say Camilla dove all their closers.I think like the nastiest picture of Soho
insanely crush. He's just like thenumber one guy that anytime the Phillies play
him, I watch him and I'mlike, no one is getting a hit.
There's just this is impossible to hitthat you can. I saw him
in person one time and I tookmy breath away. He's unbelievable. But

(29:30):
yeah, I don't get what thekind of what the aim here is Like
the bottom four of your lineup isWilmer Flores, mike Yastremsky, Patrick Bailey,
Marco Luciano. Like, that's gottabe one of the worst bottom fours
in baseball. I just I'll chimein the one that we really the only
thing we disagree with, because everyover you said, even if I didn't

(29:51):
give it or wouldn't take it,I have them over that number. And
I agree with the Red Sox.I agree with the Giants, the only
one we disagree on some Orleans.I have the Marlins in the playoffs as
my third wild card. And reallyit's kind of just like a war of
attrition in the middle of the NL. And if I'm low on San fran
I think everyone's gonna take Washington,Pittsburgh, Colorado out of the conversation before

(30:14):
we even start, like they're justthey're not playoff contenders. And then you
take you know, the Mets outtoday with that code Senga news definitely hurts
things for them. You take theSan Diego Padres out, who I'm going
to talk about in a second,who I like they're under at eighty one
and a half. I'll just sayit right now. It's pretty simple.
They won eighty two games last year, and they had won Soto and Josh

(30:36):
Hader. They don't have those playersnow. I think that's gonna hurt their
baseball. Yeah, so that's howthat's why I like their under eighty one
and a half. I have themat seventy five wins. I don't think
they're gonna be good at all.So then it comes down to, like
the sixth wild Card comes down toMiami or one of the Cubs, Cardinals,
and Rets. I look through theclubs, Cardinals and Reds rosters.

(30:57):
I don't see the outside that Isee on the Marlins roster. You know,
I know that they've lost Sandy,but you look at their rotation.
They at least have young guys thatI think can take a leap, like
Lozardo I think could take a stepinto being a full full on eight.
You know, Braxton Garrett is aguy who could take a step even you

(31:18):
know, lower on or lower downin that in that rotation, you have
other young guys in Edward Cabrera whocould take another step. You've got Uri
Perez, who first stretch last yearlook like the best pitcher in baseball.
I mean he had a month lastyear he was unhittable. If he you
know, looks like that for alonger sample size. I just think you
have a lot of guys on thisteam who could be better than we've seen.

(31:41):
Jake Berger, Jazz Chisholm, like, those are kind of young guys
that could keep improving. So Miami, they're another one. Like if you
rank offense, starting pitching, andbullpen like, I think they're top six
or top seven in the NL inall three categories, even if they're not
great in any other one category.Yeah, so you said you want to
kind of again to this Padres,but really more of the Angels you kind

(32:02):
of hit on that Padres already,And I think it's as simple as you
said it. Yeah, you win. If you win eighty one games and
you lose Juan Soto and Josh Hater, you're not gonna win more than that
the next season really, no matterwho you add, because you lose a
top five reliever in baseball and thetop five player in baseball, you are
not going to go over your wintotal, How many players, how many

(32:24):
guys would you say are definitively betterthan one? Sodas that it? If
we're if we're talking not playoffs,I'd probably say Mookie, Maybe maybe I
would take Ana. Yeah, three, Yeah, I think that's it.

(32:49):
I think I think so too.I'm just yeah, that one's kind of
pretty pretty even for me. Butyeah, so, I mean, granted,
if if you lose a top fivereliever and a top three player in
the entire league, you are probablynot going to win more games than you
did the season before. Now tothe one that I think everyone kind of

(33:10):
wishes wasn't the case. But there'sa whole, big hot topic on this
right now. The Los Angeles Angelsjust an absolute dumpster fire out there,
just not doing anything. Anthony rerendoone basically saying he hates baseball, like

(33:34):
Trout saying he's committed. Maybe he'snot, but he is, but maybe
it's just right now, like Idon't know what the hell is going on
out there, which I agree underunder under on this Angels team. Yeah,
I mean, it's kind of theexact same thing I just said with
the Padres, like they won seventythree games, each of the last two

(33:54):
years with the MVP, like withShoetani playing in a world historic piece both
pitching and hitting. So if everyonewas right and he's the best player of
all time and the most valuable playerever, I kind of think they should
get worse. That's kind of where'sthere's really uh, there's really no other

(34:16):
way. I can't believe this numbersat seventy two and a half when when
they won seventy three games last yearwith show. Hey, like, I
just it's it's dumbfounding. So let'sdo some player awards here we can talk
n L m VP. I thinkwe both have our pick. I don't.
I don't know if it's necessarily ourour favorite pick. Play Like if

(34:39):
if you had a gun in yourhead with a million dollars, who you
would put the money on if it'sthat person. But based on odds,
you have Corbyn Carroll twenty two toone, and and I did and will
be taking Bryce twelve to one.Do you just think it's going to be

(35:00):
just another really good year from Carol? Is it basically that that next step
after being on the biggest stage lastyear, or is it kind of just
a mix of a. Yeah,it's betting on like a top, top
notch prospect to take yet another step. I mean, he's had such a
historic rookie season and twenty five humorsfifty four steals, Like he has the

(35:21):
potential of being like a forty fortyguy, I think, or you know,
if he had thirty five homers,sixty steals or maybe even put up
you know with the steel numbers butgetting so crazy last year, maybe if
if he was even to get upto that seventy number, I mean he
played one hundred and fifty five andprobably could have stolen more. Wasn't like
only got caught stealing five times,So if he wanted to be a little

(35:42):
bit more aggressive, he could probablysteal seventy bags. Get the RBI s
up he had eight sixty eight ohps. Like I think that there's just it's
kind of just betting on such ahigh level. It's such a high level
prospect to take yet another leap whenhe's a great fielder, great hitting for
power, great hitting for average steelsbags, like I think he can kind
of just fill all the all thekind of metrics. And he was five

(36:04):
point four war last year, SoI think that could get a lot better.
But if I was just picking,like taking odds out of it,
I think I actually would take Bryce. I think his power is going to
really really factor in, and Ithink he's going to hit forty five plus
homers this year. Well, Iexpect I expect the big time power surge
from a healthy Bryce playing first base, focusing on kind of the plate a

(36:28):
little bit more. I I thinkthat all the Dodgers guys are going to
kind of take away from each otherwith with Mooki and Freeman and shohe and
I'm probably forgetting someone obviously just rightthere, but I guess Will Smith.
He's not really an MVP guy.But yeah, yeah, but the yeah,
Akuna is the big one. Obviously, Acuna has a great chance every

(36:50):
year to win the award. ButI think Bryce and Carroll are the two
best prices at plus twelve hundred andplus twenty two hundred. I love it.
I think if you put Bryce outthere full for a full season,
the last time he did that,he won the award. I think,
like you said, I'm on Harper'sover on home runs this year. The
number was at like thirty and ahalf when I saw it, thirty and

(37:13):
a half was the last time Ibelieve I saw it like that. Yeah,
that's a nice one too. Ialso, if I know you were
saying the Trey Turner MVP, possiblysprinkle something Trey's over under. I saw
it twenty three and a half forhome runs. Trey went over that number
after four of the worst months ofhis entire career. So if that is

(37:37):
a number I was liking as well. Next we have Cy Young. You
have an NL pick, I havean AL pick. I'm gonna take Corbyn
Burns ten to one. I thinkBurns is obviously now on the Orioles,
the the definitive number one for theOrioles going into this season. I think

(37:57):
any time you put a really goodpitcher on a really good baseball team,
going from a mediocre team to away better team than the Brewers, I
think he's just gonna have a betterchance, honestly because of the team he's
on, and I think it's gonnabe a big year for for Corvin Burns.
I think now going going out tothis Baltimore team that if if I

(38:19):
am so high on Baltimore, he'sgonna have to have a good year for
that win total to hit. Ithink, I think it's a good number
for him, uh plus one thousand. I think there were there were a
few other guys that I was lookingat in the a L. I think
the obvious favorite right now is onceagain Garrett Cole, but I am liking
that tend to one number for Burns. Yeah, those are the two guys

(38:43):
I was looking at in the aL. I think Garret Cole is the
obvious pick always He's just so soconsistent it's ridiculous. But Corvin Burns,
obviously going to a new situation isalways. I mean he's he's an absolute
stud. My favorite sty young beton either side here was was Zach Gallen.
I think Zach Allen's a guy whoyou know, you look at what
he did last year, and hewas a kind of a contender until he

(39:06):
had a little bit of a toughersecond half of the season. He still
finished with three four seven ERA andbetter underlying numbers than that with a three
h five FIP. But his twentytwenty two was absolutely insane. I mean,
at two five ERA, he hada zero point nine to one whip.
Like you take his last two years, he's probably been the best pitcher

(39:27):
in baseball, or at least inthe NL, over that two year stretch.
So I think Zach Gallen getting himat sixteen to one. Zach Allen
is not the seventh best pitcher inthe end, and so right now on
odds at least on DraftKings guys aheadof him Strider, Fair, Wheeler Fair,
But I I don't know. Ithink Gallen probably has a better chance

(39:52):
at winning a cy young. Imean, granted, if you gave me
Zach Wheeler sixteen to one, Iwould take it. I think Gallon before
it. I think Gallen might bea little bit better of like a regular
season kind of a dominant guy.Uh, but Wheeler would be the guy
want in the playoff. Wheeler's justlike Wheeler's just like that consistently, Yes,

(40:14):
great like not flashy, though Gallonis the great and flashy and Wheelers
in the regular season. Wheeler's probablya safer bet at this point to be
top ten. But I think Gallon'sa safer bet to be top one or
top two, or at least inthe NL top one. But the other
guy, like that's at least youknow, debatable. Yamamoto is above him,

(40:36):
and odds that feels disrespectful. Atthis point, Logan Webb is above
him, and odds that feels disrespectful. Max Freed is above him and as
yeah, what do we do that? Crazy? And then Justin Steele is
above him and odds, which that'sme on one year, like Zach Allen's
had that year except twice basically likeand that's not to mention having you know,

(40:58):
solid years before that. Obviously twosewy to eight to one in limited
games in twenty nineteen to Miami andArizona combined. Uh that Dowllon, I
think it's just a stud. Yeah, last pick here, Yeah, sprinkle
in Sonny Gray at forty to one. I love that crazy forty one new
team new you know. Last AmericanLeague MVP an absolutely loaded league. Just

(41:29):
pretty absurd right now. Uh,the the like just the amount of players
that are playing in the American Leaguenow that that that have the chance to
win this award. Just to namea few, Aaron Judge, Juan Soto,
Jordan Alvarez, Cory Seeger, JulioRodriguez, Kyle Tucker, Mike Trout,
Adley Gunner all competing to win thesame award. I think it's I

(41:53):
think it's gonna be one of thebetter MVP races we've seen. But based
off of the number, I haveto go double check this number because I
saw it on one book and itis completely off on another book. So
I just want to make sure Iwrote this number down correctly because that seems

(42:14):
kind of absurd. Give me onesecond League winners. Here we go,
Awards American League MVP. Yes,So Adlee Rutchman is my pick DraftKings.
He's thirteen to one. I gothim at twenty five to one on Fandel.

(42:34):
I think that is a pick.Like I said earlier, Adley's only
going to get better, and Ithink he is do or is going to
have a massive year. He hittwenty home runs eighty RBIs last year.
I think you see that home runnumber go up. I'm all over that
over home run total. He's atnineteen and a half for this year.

(42:58):
I'm all over that. Eight ohnine ops one thirty one ops plus his
rookie year one twenty eight ops pluslast year. I think the the Adley
train is just gonna keep going.Uh and I think it's gonna be and
I think it's gonna hit hard thisyear. So I think really just based
on those odds, I think that'sa great number for Adley twenty five to

(43:21):
one right now, So I thinkthat's gonna be my American League MVP.
I think it's just so hard forcatchers because they have to take days off
and it's so easy to get dingedup. But Adly, if anyone's gonna
do it, it's gonna be ADLEIfor sure he's the best catcher in baseball,
which is crazy to say at sucha young age. Sorry, JT,
but it's it's over. It's over. It's not bc IB is OVERSU.

(43:46):
But my my favorite my Favorite PlayerAward is actually this one, Flatty
al MVP plus twenty two fifty.He has not been one of the best
players in baseball the last two yearsat all, Flatty, to be honest,
But when you have a season likeLady did in twenty twenty one,
it kind of until. I mean, he's still let me let me check

(44:07):
the age real quick. He's twentyfour years old. Like it's I'm not
willing to give up on He's onlytwenty four years old. It's insane.
It feels like he's been in ourlives fast five full years only for ten
years, and honestly, do youthink about the look at the games here.
One hundred and twenty three games gotbrought up mid season twenty nineteen,
sixty games in the sixty game seasonin twenty twenty one hundred and sixty,

(44:28):
one hundred and sixty, one hundredand fifty six. Like, the guy
does not miss games, like heplays every day. So that's especially why
it feels like, you know,we've just watched him play so much that
year in twenty twenty one is justgets forgotten about because he came in second
for MVP because show he was sogood. But he had one hundred and
twenty three runs, forty eight homers, one hundred and eleven RBIs a six
to ozho one sluging percentage which ledthe league. Four oh one OBP led

(44:52):
the league, one thousand and twoops led the league, Like he led
the league in total bases. That'salso an Howard season. He also got
a Gold Glove, Like I didnot know Vladdy was a Gold Glove fielder
at all. Like you look athis at his grading out, he looks
like he's probably above average and maybegot a little bit home cooking there with
a gold glove. But I mean, how many good first basements are there

(45:15):
really at defense? Yeah? No, there's not that many. There really
isn't that many, which is whythe Breeth Hoskin stuff was always insane.
But anyway, I digress. Butyeah, there, But even the last
two years, in these big downyears, ninety seven RBIs ninety four RBIs
like he had fifty eight homers inthe two years stretched there. I just

(45:35):
think when you have a year asgood as he had in twenty twenty one,
I'm just always going to consider youas a possibility to get back to
that level. And plus twenty twoto fifty just feels far too low.
Yeah, I love it. Ithink that's two good numbers for Adleye and
Vladdie. Last thing, I know, we talked about this final hot take
hot take going into the season.I have mine. I can go first,

(46:00):
unless you know yours, you cankick it off, you can go
all right. I believe Bryce Harperand Trey Turner are both gonna finish top
five at m VP. I thinkthe Harper thing is real this year.
I think I think this is hisaward again this year, and and I
think Trey is just going to havea really, really solid year. I

(46:21):
think that that typical Tray Turner consistencyis going to come back as it was
in previous years. I think he'sjust gonna be a consistently great player for
us again this year. I thinkthe defense is going to be a lot
better than it was last year.There's not going to be as many errors.
He's already said that it's been somethinghe's worked on all offseason. I

(46:42):
don't I can't see the defense beingany worse than what it was last year.
God, I hope it's not.But right now, Yeah, for
me, top five MVP I thinkwill consist of Bryce Harper and Trey Turner.
I like it. I like thata lot. Yeah, plus sixteen
hundreds worth a sniff there for Treyfor sure. My my hot take I
went double here because I don't Idon't know how hot either take is really,

(47:04):
So I have two for you.My first one I already gave out
Brewer's gonna win the Enel Central.They're over under seventy six and a half.
They're plus eight hundred to win thedivision. I went through all the
reasons why already, but you know, go look at the Cubs. They've
gotten worse from last year when theyyou know, like completely collapsed and missed
the playoffs. The Cardinals went outand you know, got a bunch of
ARP members, They got a bunchof fifty year olds in their starting rotation

(47:28):
with lanceln and Kyle Gibson. TheReds, they didn't really do anything.
They got young talent, but youknow, without and maybe maybe those guys
just get way better and they jump, like we've seen, you know,
Baltimore and other teams do Hunter Greenthis year. For me, it's all
about that whole rotation like that,you don't know what you're getting, Lodolo
Hunter Green, like Ashcraft, likeKyle Gibson now in that rotation. No,

(47:51):
he's yeah, yeah yeah. AnAbbott too is another young guy in
Cincinnati. Like their entire rotation isjust young dudes who we don't know what
they are yet, like, andthey've been really kind of alidle We've seen
good stuff and bad stuff from allof them. So I just think Milwaukee
is gonna hang around there. Ithink they're gonna end up winning that division.
But my real hot take, Ithink San Francisco wins less than like

(48:13):
six. I think they win likesixty five games or less. Like,
I think this is gonna be ateam that completely bottoms out, looking webs
on the on the trade you know, on the trade block at the at
the deadline. Potentially maybe so Lair, who they just signed is on the
on the trade block Inforido, acouple other guys in that lineup. I
just think San frank completely falls offthe face of the earth. I think
they're gonna compete for being one ofthe worst teams besides Oakland, who doesn't

(48:37):
cat there's twenty nine baseball teams inthe Oakland days, But I think they
have a chance to be the twentyninth worst team. I really do think
could be that bad. Would youconsider sprinkling any money on the Giants to
win the least amount of games?No, that's award. Yeah. The
problems I have Oakland at forty ninewins, Oh god, forty nine they

(49:00):
won fifty last year. Like,I'm not even being that crazy if they
look worse than they did last year, and they had some guys who probably
overformed, like Brett Rooker, whowas not as good down the stretch.
Like I just oak One's bad man. They don't just contracted bad team,
absolute dumpster fire. Well, Mark, thank you, thank you for joining.

(49:20):
Unless you have any final thoughts,I think we're done here. Yeah.
My final thought is contract the A'suntil Vegas can let them move in.
Like this whole thing. Now,they're gonna have like three four years
where we don't know like where they'regonna belong, and then they'll be in
Vegas like they were supposed to betwenty twenty seven. Now it's not gonna
be like like twenty twenty nine orsomething like. They got to figure this
out. Like, just get ridof them for a couple of years.

(49:40):
I just give them like three yearsoff cut everybody, put them on new
teams. Let them get a newopportunity. Yeah, you're it out again
in four years, and then wewill play with twenty nine teams until this
rumored expansion comes. But with thatthis this has been another episode of Luke
and I on the Phillies, broughtto you by in the Clutch used code

(50:02):
Arcaney. Luca your checkout for tenpercent off from markany Junior. I am
Luke Arcaney and we will talk toyou next time.