Episode Transcript
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(00:00):
In another edition of Luke and Ion the Phillies is underway. Hello everybody,
I am Sean Brace, joined usalways by Luke himself Luke Rcany.
He covers the Phillies and all thingsMLB for us on the Gambler. Luke,
great to be back, sir.We are about three weeks away from
opening day. A lot to discussso far. Health is good, knock
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on wood, and that's all thatmatters when they're down there in Florida.
Obviously we want to see series yet, yeah, we want to see the
guys get better, but bottom lineis health is number one. First of
all, great to have you man, Now you've been good. I think
this is the first time we've actuallydone a podcast in person. It's all
been live and everything like that,but now we're just kind of chilling talk
and that's the plan for Thursdays movingforward, we will be we will be
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doing live shows and we're going tobe extending the invitation to people if they
want to come up to our dunkinlounge. Were really excited about the upcoming
season. Of course what we're ableto do last year, building off of
that, and hopefully the Phillies willhave some success. And that's really bottom
line. That's the goals were here. That's it. On top of everything
that's happening in the world of MLB, because look, there's some really cool
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storylines, some young teams, someold teams that you know, do we
want to see them come back andrise to the top. And of course
I'm talking about the New York Yankeesthere the Dodgers with the expectations this season
has a lot of Jews. What'sthe number one storyline coming in for you?
Is it the Dodgers? I mean, it has to be the Dodgers.
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I feel like when you add Shoeotanito a team that already has Mookie
Bets and Freddie Freeman, I thinkthat's probably going to be your number one
story. But other than that,I really think right now for me,
it's the Orioles, a team thatreally flew above expectations last year, won
over one hundred games. They basicallybrought everyone back. Everyone's just a year
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more advanced now in their career.These young guys have more experience. Adie
Rutchman has this experience now in theplayoffs, and you add Corbyn Burns to
that and now potentially adding Jackson Holiday, the number one pick from two years
ago into your starting lineup two yearsafter getting drafted on Opening Day, probably
gonna play second base. He wasdrafted as a shortstop, but he will
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be playing second for them. Ithink they're the biggest storyline for me.
That's the team I'm the most I'mthe most up on right now, probably
at least in the American League,but honestly really in the whole league right
now as far as wins are concerned. The Baltimore Orioles sitting at ninety and
a half, to me, that'sa little low. I think this team
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is going will be very similar againhealth number one at the top of the
list. But for me, Imean they want over one hundred games,
correct, I don't see that dropof Why would they all of a sudden
drop down below ninety onins besides thedivision being better? Yeah. The only
reason I could see Vegas thinking thatis as if they think last year was
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any bit of a fluke year.But if your young stars continue to get
better and you add Corbyn Burn toyour rotation, you're gonna drop like twelve
games worse than you were the yearbefore that. That that's a very surprising
number to me. Maybe it's becausethe division they play in, and if
and if everyone's high on the BlueJays and the Yankees and the Rays like
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they are this year, that isa really hard division, like we talked
about earlier. But I don't seeany reason why the Orioles wouldn't cruise over
that number. All right, Solet's get on over to the Phillies conversation
and speaking of storylines, what's thenumber one storyline for you right now with
this team three weeks away from openingday against the Landa Braves at home.
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Uh? Yeah, right now?I think it's health. Everybody's healthy,
which is your biggest thing when you'retalking spring training. No big time injuries,
no uh like achilles knee scares likethe Braves just had last week with
Ronald Acuna. They said he willbe ready for opening day. But that
is definitely not a message I thinkany Braves fan wanted to see, no
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matter if he's okay or not,just for healthy. Everyone's everyone's in the
lineup. Your big stars are inthere like every other day. Really,
the only one that's not in thereright now is Brandon Marsh but he there
should be really no issue with himfor opening Day. Rob Thompson said earlier
that they or he will not namean opening day starter just yet. Aaron
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Nola is the the third longest openingday streak in the history of the Phillies,
only behind Robin Roberts and Steve Carlton. So Nola started the last six
you would think he would start seven, but him and his wife are expecting
their second child, the dude thatnow is April fourth, So granted,
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if that baby does get here alittle earlier than they expect, Nola could
miss opening Day. He could maybemiss his first start. So that would
obviously line Zach Wheeler up to beout there March twenty eighth, all right.
And then from the games that they'veplayed down in Florida, is there
anybody that's catching some pt that hasyour eye open the starters? Are we
seeing anything significant there with schwer We'regetting at bats, Harper, so on
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and so forth, like anything that'ssticking out to you from what Thompson is
doing down there. And albeit,it's such a long spring training so they
could play with whatever, so we'renot trying to read too much into it,
But is there anything that's jumping offthe Pagey as far as battles are
concerned down in spring training, andnot really for the first time in a
while, I would say almost probablytwenty four, maybe even twenty five of
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your twenty six roster spots are prettylocked in. Your only thing right now
is maybe like your long man outof a bullpen, which is maybe between
a Dylan coveous Pencer Turnbull. Butother than that, it's really that that
fourth outfield option right now, whetherit's gonna be Jake Cave or whether it'll
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be Christian Pace, it seems likeright now you can keep Pache off of
this roster. I mean, he'shaving a great spring. He had a
way better year than Cave last year, and he's simply just younger and he
has more upside. The only argumentto that right now is not having a
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lefty bat off of your bench otherthan Garrett Stubbs. But granted, I
don't really think lefty righty matchups offthe bench mean a ton in like April
may correct. That's that's more October. Granted, I will say on record
right now, I think at thetrade deadline, I think their number one
priority needs to be a left handedbat off the bench. I don't.
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I think you need to have alefty that can hit you a home run
in the playoffs, and they don'treally have that right now. So whether
that'll be either of those guys onthe roster, it seems seems like the
team is leaning towards Christian pache rightnow. I don't think it's really like
in Stone yet, but that's reallyit. Most of their rosters pretty set,
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all right. And then, youknow, one of the big things
for me right now is just expectations. And there's not a die hard Phillies
fan out there that would agree withit whatsoever, but from the gambling perspective,
from the wagering, from the lines, the odds that are set like
this division is already put on at for the Atlanta Braves, and that
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should frustrate you. But here's whereI'm at with this right now. Earlier
this week, we got into adiscussion about how good this pitching staff,
the starting rotation is, and ofcourse Zak Wheeler could be very well discussed
as a number two starter in thegame three start or whatever. I don't
think anyone's gonna put him above GarrettCole. There are some crazies out there
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that might, but I'll give thenod to Garrett Cole either way. You
shake it out. Zack Wheeler's atop three Aaron Nola, we know what
he's capable of. Of course,Ranger Suarez, we know what this is
starting rotation is. But those oneand two, those horses at the top,
Like if you have two starters thatare top twelve in Major League Baseball,
like I just that opens it upa little bit more as far as
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life being difficult for other teams.Of course, Atlanta Braves number one,
who have their troubles already going upagainst the Phillies. So like, I'm
not sitting here saying that this divisionis already decided. I get it.
People probably rolling their eyes at that, but that's essentially what Vegas is saying.
With the odds again, we're lookingat the Alant Braves one oh one
to ninety and a half. Fromthe Phillies perspective, that's win totals.
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You want to talk about the biggestodds to win the division, The LA
Dodgers are number one on that listout of every other favorite as far as
Major League Baseball to win the division. The Braves are number two. Again,
where are you at right now,with this team competing for the division,
I like I refuse to believe thisseason it's already decided. The Landa
Brads are gonna win the AL East, regardless of injuries or not. And
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should we have higher expectations for thisPhillies team this year? I think the
Phillies could win the NL East.I think they have to get off to
a hotter start. Their biggest theirbiggest flaw in these last two years has
been falling to twelve thirteen, evenlike fourteen to fifteen games under five hundred
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at some point in May. Granted, we know once this team gets to
June the last two years, theyjust go on some steaming hot roll where
they'll win twenty four out of twentyseven in June and July. But they
have to get off to a hotterstart and if they can, if they
can get through April and May,maybe five to ten games over five hundred,
I don't see a reason why theycan't push towards one hundred wins.
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I think if they won ninety gameslast year and they were fourteen games under
five hundred at one point, ifthat doesn't happen the month of that happ
it was around May jun Yeah,they were like twelve thirteen games under point.
But if if you take away thatthat really bad two months and you
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just play a full, consistent sixmonths of baseball, there's no reason that
a team that from June on thelast two years has had over one hundred
win pace. From June to thefirst day of October, this team can
win one hundred games, and Ithink if they play their best baseball,
they can absolutely compete with the Braves. That's where I'm at. And again,
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I know you kind of ex eachother out with Spencer Strider versus Wheeler.
Let's just say that have fun witha conversation like those two ex each
other out. But then Nola,like you know Nola, And I got
Mark Henry Junior telling me he couldbe as high as eight for him,
which he made the case that hehad me believing. Luke, Like the
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numbers are there, Nola deserves morerespect than he's getting nationally and I think
locally as well. And it's justlook at another season, there's no more
excuses. The contract is put in, he's home, he's relaxed, like
Ranger Suarez should be better this year. And then who knows what's gonna happen
in the back end of that rotation. They might go out and get a
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guy like Jordan Montgomery. Blake's noow, I'm not ready to say that that's
dead gist yet. I think therecould be some miracle in the making as
far as one of those two bean added. And if that's the case,
this rotation is even deeper, evenstronger, and some could make the
case that this possibly could be thebest rotation in baseball if they had one
of those guys. Yeah, ifyou add Jordan Montgomery or Blake Snell to
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a rotation with Aaron Nola, ZachWueel, or Ranger Swarez, that's that
is the best rotation in baseball.And I will I will confidently put that
rotation up against anybody the fact thatRanger Suarez would be your four, who
has one of the lowest whips inlike postseason history. We are talking regular
season here, granted, but still, any anytime Ranger Suarez can at number
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four on a team, that's areally good rotation. And if you take
Zach Wheeler, who is a topthree pitcher in baseball, you take Aaron
Nola, who's a debatable top tenpitcher in baseball, and you take Jordan
Montgomery or Blake Snell, who weredefinitely top twenty both of them. That's
three pitchers in the top twenty inall of baseball. Like that, that
is the best rotation in baseball.Granted, we don't know right now what's
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going to happen on that end.If they did add one of those guys,
they would either have to bump Sanchezdown, which is something I'm not
I don't know if I'm ready foryet. I think he earned a spot
in this rotation last year, orthey would have to try and get off
of the Taiwan Walker contract. Isa team willing to take that? I
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think a team's willing to take aguy that can eat some innings for you.
Maybe they don't love the number,but I don't think that number is
a hated number really around the league. I just think we kind of hate
the number here because it didn't haveone inning last year in the playoffs.
And if you're giving a guy eightmillion dollars a year, you're gonna hope
that he at least steps on thefield in the playoffs. But I mean,
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if if you could land Jordan Montgomeryor Blake Snell. I mean,
that's that's the best rotation in baseball, yep. And that would be a
huge deal, of course, foreverybody to get a little bit more peppin
their's step for this upcoming season.I know that a lot of us don't
need it, but man, youhad a name like that. Now of
a sudden, the expectations changed ahell of a lot more, and across
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all things baseball. I think mediaeverybody is going to be saying exactly what
you just said. So they're onepitcher away from raising the expectation level across
the board for this upcoming season forsome For us, look, man,
I'm I'm you know, I'm pedalto the metal like this. Enough is
enough. This team is good enoughto win the division. I get it,
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They're good enough to win the worldserious the paper. Yeah, look,
they were right there last year,they were right there to year before.
Just got to go ahead and finishthe job. All right, talk
about expectations a little bit more.Let's focus in on a player. Great
post, great article by Todd Zelekiat MLB dot com about Bryce and Stott,
And look, you know, youcan go down the list of trade
Turner. You can go down thelist of JT. Bryce, I get
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it. Those are the greats.We understand what expectations should be there.
But Bryce and Stott a little younger, a little fresh to a lot of
people's eyes, but man really goodat the plate, great glove and field
love the one two punch between himand Turner at second and shortstop, and
it just seems like, look,if you go off of what happened last
year, all the way up intoAugust, he was he was hitting three
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hundred, and then of course thegrind and you know, these are the
growing pains of being a professional baseballplayer, a professional exactly. And Scott
would tell you, probably to aman, that it got to him a
little bit down the stretch last year. So when you look at Bryson Stott
hitting three hundred, if he does, if he's able to do that throughout
the course of the season, whatdoes that do to the lineup? What
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type of runs run production are weseeing? And you know, where does
that set it up? If Stockcan be a guy that gets to the
dish and is able to get you, you know, two to three hits
per game consistently throughout the season.I mean, if you get him hitting
three hundred, he's I mean,adding a three hundred hitter to a top
of the order with Kyle Schwarber,Trey Turner, Bryce Harper, That's that's
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gonna do damage because you know Harper'sgonna get on base. You know Trey's
gonna get on base. If Stockcan hit three hundred, I think that's
where his his RBI numbers go up. Is he hitting two again this year?
Where's he hitting this year? Stop? Yeah? I personally would I
would have him hitting five. Allright, Well, what's the lineup in
your mind? Opening day? Bestlineup on paper that's gonna win you the
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most games? Leadoff will be Schwarber. I don't. I'm so. I'm
so over the leadoff Schwarber lineup.They win baseball games when he and when
do you think Topper is gonna dothat? Yes? I agree, because
Topper knows that they win the mostbaseball games when Kyle Schwerber hits lead off.
Okay, Kyle Schwarber won, TreyTurner two, Yep, your three
holes, Bryce Harper, that's wherehe hits. That is Bryce Harper.
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Spot number four for me is actuallyJT. I think this JT finding his
new swing in this biomechanics lab thingis real that they've been hyping it up
all offseason. They feel like there'swere holes in his swing last year that
they really fixed this offseason. AndI think JT at his best is the
best in the four hole for thisteam. Number five, I would have
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bryceon Stott. I think being ableto get Harper on base and JT on
base and then having a guy thathits for that average behind those guys will
do one numbers for Statt's RBI numbers, but we'll just drive in so many
more runs for the team in general. Then I'd have Nick Castiano six.
I think having a having a batthat can hit close to thirty home runs
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in that hole for you is awesomeand and there's there's not many teams in
baseball that have their six hole hitterable to hit around twenty five ish home
runs. Yep. I would haveAlec boone seven. Uh. I think
this this lineup construction this year willbe very JT. Castiano's boom kind of
like rotation thing. I think anythree of those guys can hit in the
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four hole. Any of them canhit honestly, four, five, six
seven. However, they're gonna jumbleit together. But I think Boom seven,
Marsh eight when he comes back,and then opening day, I think
Rojas in the nine one. Rojasisn't really doing all that much down in
Florida. Yeah, I mean,it's funny because if five four, if
you go look at a lot ofthe guy's stats, none of them are
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nobody's doing anything. Yeah, andforgive me that Shover has like nine strikeouts
already. Though the brain fart thatI was having, I'm looking at today's
lineup, down and spring and headstarted two. Hi'm like, Scott doesn't
hit second? What am I thinking? So? Yes, but I do
like that lineup and and again it'sone thing for us to be pitched,
and it's another thing it's consistent.These guys are all creatures. I have
a toppers not changing much. No, And I think one of the big
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things for this lineup this year isI really want them to find a consistent
one. I want them to finda lineup that they like and I want
them to go with it. Youdon't think they were consistent last year.
I think they they. I meanthey did deal with some injuries towards the
end of last year. But Ithink they kind of like jumbled around with
the JT and the four, andthen Castianis was in the four when he
was hot. And I get thatyou want to switch the guys that are
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hotter up towards the top of thelineup. But I think ideally, if
you can figure out a set lineupthat works for you, and not saying
it has to be the lineup forone hundred and fifty games, but if
you can roll out the same lineupmaybe one hundred times like ninety times,
I think that will do a lotfor this team. I think getting that
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consistency down for them and getting theseguys used to, you know, where
they're hitting, who's hitting before them, who's hitting after them, these tendencies,
because you have a different approach inbaseball when a player like Brandon Marsh
hits behind you than Bryce Harper,like if your spot in the lineup matters
in baseball, And I think theseguys getting used to who's before them,
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who's behind them, I think that'sreally big. No, you're right,
and you know when you're consistent,it just takes the guessing out of it.
And of course, if they're notchanging anything that means they're winning too.
I don't want to have to waitfor the lineup drop every day,
like I want to know what's common. Basically. I like that and I
think once once they figure it out, I think what I said is is
I think that'll be kind of thethe baseline that's that's kind of been how
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it's been ordered the last year ortwo. But the only real change to
that, to that lineup is whowill hit four, Whether it's Cassianos,
whether it's Bone, whether it's JT. I think all three of them could
hit there to start the year,but me personally, I would have JT
there. All right, Luke,let's keep it moving. Then, big
picture question, I want to askyou this. We're having some fun with
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this on a daily ticket. Uhsome markets that DraftKings are offering for this
upcoming MLB season fewest wins total startto finish one sixty two. Who is
the worst franchise in Major League Baseballthis year? Is it is easy to
saying the A's. Do you thinkthey could bounce back a little bit,
play with some fight. Nobody wantsus look at us all of a sudden,
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They're gonna get off to a hotstart Rockies are plus two to sixty
Chicago White Sox plus five to fiftyWhite Sox. And I'm bringing it up
because the Nationals are the Nationals inplay that have the best the worst record.
I think the Nationals will be alittle better than people think this year.
I don't think they're gonna be good. They're not even gonna be average.
But I think they're gonna be ateam that I don't think they'll be
around that that lowest win number.Will they be better than the Marlins?
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No, okay, but I don't. I don't think the Marlins are gonna
be that good this year, butI don't think the Nationals are gonna be
better than them. What I doknow, the Oakland Athletics are the worst
team in baseball, but the Rockiesmay be like a one A one bow
Rockies. I'm gonna name you thisthis this rotation, and I want you
to tell me how many guys outof this you know? Number one projected
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is Kyle Friedland. Yes. Numbertwo is cow Quantrill. Yes. Number
three is Austin Gomber No. Numberfour is Ryan Feltner. No. And
number five is the Coda Hudson.Yes, okay, but they are all
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projected to have over a five pointfive yard they it is. It is
on paper, predicted to be oneof the worst rotations and probably the last
green. I mean, you gotguys in that division. I mean you
have Showhey having to go there nowall the time, show A, Mooki
and Freeman playing in corps against that, like it's gonna be bad, Like
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it's gonna be really bad. Andeven the lineup like they have Chris Bryant,
who is just thinking one of themost I do what did I like?
Just he took the money and alltime just like immediate fall off.
Like granted, when you go outto play in Colorado for the Rockies or
a team who's not trying to win, I guess that's probably what's gonna happen.
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But I mean it's it's brutal outthere. I know, like four
guys in their lineup like it's itis. It is no nothing that you
will ever want to watch next year. Coln Rockies are second on the list
of plus two to sixty's. Imean, I'd probably still take the a's
just because I mean they're so bad. All right, we had some fun
with this one. Give me thisone race to ten wins. This is
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definitely a market that everybody's getting actionon. It's gonna, you know,
keeps you invested to the first tengames of the regular season. It's gonna
be a lot of fun. We'regonna be doing a fantasy league for the
Gambler. Looking forward to that.But first to ten wins. If the
Major Maked selection Dodgers are plus twoseventy Padres plus seven fifty Braves twelve to
one, Ashlolls thirteen to one,Oriel's thirteen to one, Diamondbacks fifteen to
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one, then it goes Rays,Rangers, Yankees, Mariners, Guardians,
Giants, Phillies, Marlins. Sofirst to ten wins in Major League Baseball
this year you got I'm gonna takethe Baltimore Orioles at thirteen to one.
They open up with a really easyschedule. They have the Angels at home
for three, and then they havethe Royals at home for three, and
then they're in Pittsburgh and then they'reat Boston. Four teams that I don't
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really think any of them have thathigh of hopes this year. The Angels
are predicted to be one of theworst teams in baseball. Now, the
Red Sox just haven't really done onething good all off season. The Pirates
have a future, not yet,the Royals have wit and that's kind of
about it. So I think theOrioles have the easiest schedule to open up
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the year. So that's twelve gamesfor them that are pretty easy, and
even after that the Brewers at home. The Brewers are obviously way better than
all four of those first teams,but the Orioles over the Brewers at home
is a pretty nice bet for me, I think. So even those first
fifteen to twenty games for the Orioles, they're pretty easy. So I like
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that number thirteen to one the otherteam. I mean, if you want
to look at the Astros, grantedthey do open up with the Yankees,
yeah they get so that is abit of a hard series to open up
with. But yeah, I meanthat number for me, the Orioles,
thirteen to one, that's gonna bethe one that I'm on, Ma'll Dodgered
up. They're the favorite for areason. Plus two seventy. I just
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don't think they'll be out of manyball games with that lineup. They go
down six, two, five totwo, whatever it is, Firshaw get
shelled. Bottom line is that lineupcould get you right back into games.
So that's where I'm at. Plustwo seventy on that with fun little market
though, and we'll keep our eyeson that one as the season gets started
pretty soon. Here, all right, fantastic stuff episode whatever this is for
(24:49):
us, but there's our first onehere with the shift every Thursday coming to
you, brand new episode every Thursday. Will be filming it here at iHeart
Studios, our brand new Duncan Lounge, and you can get it on all
of our platforms as well as downloadedwherever you get your podcasts out. Get
over to Foxpho, Gambler dot com. Any final thoughts before we get out
(25:11):
of here today, I got knockedon. We got twenty one days.
Twenty one days. The best seasonis almost back. We're almost here.
It's a long season, so everyonebe ready. That's right, enjoy the
spring. I'm heading there baby Monday. First time back to Clearwater since two
thousand and thirteen. Yep, youshould see those pictures. Eleven years ago.
(25:33):
I was a hell of a lotskinnier. I didn't have any I
didn't have a beard. I thinkI had a flavor. Say, like
Chase Sutley, I was bald,but uh and I was rocking cargo pants.
Cargo shis never been, never been, never been going. I need
to get out there now that you'retwenty one too. Oh yeah, oh,
Frenchies are shoot I forget is thatthe name of the Yeah, Frenchies
(25:53):
outside there? I get still,But the Frenchies is a bar two on
Clearwater Beach? And in Frenchies isthe ballpark bar? I'm ninety percent sure
that that's correct. But yeah,it's phenomenal. It's definitely, you know.
I remember when I went and Isaid, is this how it is
everywhere in spring training? Like itwas a scene, it was a party.
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We didn't leave the stadium till threehours after the game. There was
people playing. There was like adude playing guitar. There was a full
band. H I need to getthat outside there. Perfect weather, you're
take in a game. It's springtraining, so you don't care if you
miss it in ing, you know, and it was just perfect. I'm
going with my daughter and my wife, so it's gonna be a little bit
(26:40):
different, but really looking forward toMonday taking on the Yankee. Oo.
Maybe I get a little iron Judgemon Soto down there a little bit,
maybe a little World Series preview,that would be nice. The Phillies in
the World Series. What are Idid see that are against the Yankees.
It's Phillies Yankees. And he saidPhillies over the Yankees. We got exact
(27:02):
odds series straight forecast, Phillies andYankees. Phillies and Yankees, probably somewhere
in the range of thirty twenty fiveto one, forty to one, ninety
to one. Oh sorry, Austinbeat the Yankees. Okay, yeah,
that's ninety to one match. Let'sdo let's see regular No, that's regular
(27:29):
season wins. Let's do league winner, Phillies plus eight hundred to win the
National League and Yankees plus four toseventy five. That is plus five fifty
whoa plus five hundred plus no?No, yeah, yeah, yeah,
hang on, plus five thousand.Sorry, play plus five thousand Phillies to
(27:51):
win the National League and the Yankeeswin the America Cake. All right,
plus five thousand. Yeah, theydon't have just getting there that matchup.
They have it like if you beatthem, so that that adds a little
extra flavor. But hey, ninetyto one, I still need more.
If I'm predicting in March who's winningthe word and who they get, I
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need more than one. I'm sorrythat's some Nostra Damas stuff, but hey,
why not fire on it, Sprinkleon a little Starbucks money everybody.
Good luck on all your plays,no matter what they are, especially if
you're rolling out some futures. Makesure you take a Bryce Harper MVP for
the upcoming season. Luc O Kenny, I'm Sean Brace. Will talk to
you next time on Luke and Ion the Phillies