Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:03):
Live from the wgy iHeart Studios. Welcome to Retirement Ready
with your host Dave Kopek from the Retirement Planning Group.
Every week, Dave and his team discuss the ways they
can help people make informed decisions about their retirement assets
to maintain, improve, and secure their desired quality of life.
Here's your host, Dave Coppet.
Speaker 2 (00:40):
Pretty woman walking down the street, Pretty woman of kind
of like you me, pretty woman. I don't mena you.
No one can look as good as you.
Speaker 3 (01:04):
It's Saturday.
Speaker 4 (01:07):
The only thing I remember when I hear this song
is dumb and dumber. Oh man, these guys are getting
all dressed up.
Speaker 3 (01:14):
Blew it. I'm all excited. Here, got some nice, nice music.
Speaker 5 (01:22):
Go.
Speaker 3 (01:22):
When you're talking about dumb and.
Speaker 4 (01:23):
Dumber, it's the first thing that pops in my mind.
Speaker 3 (01:27):
Just don't ask them what the most annoying sound in
the world is. Oh god, that was funny. The first
one was good. The second one, I.
Speaker 4 (01:40):
Just it wasn't great. There's too much time between the
first one and the s I.
Speaker 3 (01:44):
Don't think you know what you can't what's the old saying?
You can't create lightning? Lightning doesn't strike twice? A lightning
doesn't strike twice or lightning in a ball or something
like that. It's an idiot. Look it up. Look it
up there, idiot, no idiom. Well, happy afternoon, everybody. It's Saturday,
(02:12):
and it's uh April fifth, and it feels like it's
April of two, thy twenty nine. This has not been
a fun week, as we're all quite well aware, right. Nope, No,
hasn't been fun. What was the worst part about this week,
my son, Christopher, I.
Speaker 4 (02:34):
Guess just the market performance, seeing the market go down,
you know, clients calling in worried, scared about their accounts,
having to talk them off the ledge a little bit.
Speaker 3 (02:45):
Yeah, my hair is on fire. Fire, fire, my hair
is on fire. You're gonna talk a little bit about that,
you know. It's uh, this is a topic specific show.
So today we're going to talk about what's going on
in the markets and focus in on some things that
you should and should not do and hopefully in today's
(03:08):
Barons if you get Barons, whether it's the digital or
the hard copy. Here's a headline, Christopher, let's hear it.
Did you say hi to your mom? Hello? Mother? What
else you're supposed to say?
Speaker 5 (03:24):
But oh, I love you? If you're listening, she's listening
and just made her day. She's clicking her heels and
cleaning that house like a robot. Headlines Barons, Hey, retirees,
(03:47):
the best thing to do to your stock portfolio is
fell on the blank, Hey retirees, the best thing to
do to your stock portfolio.
Speaker 3 (03:59):
Is diversify it. Don't sell out of it. Nothing. There
you go. A lot of people on the edge. Stock
markets tumble. What it's important to realize is that when
these type of events happen, which is more common than uncommon.
If you remember last year, in the beginning of the year,
(04:20):
we were down about twenty percent YEP. In twenty twenty four,
we told everybody to take a chill pill, set on
the sidelines. You'll be okay, and we're up what over
twenty percent for the year, Chris, Yes, we were end
of the year very strong. But it's important that you
understand exactly that you know, it's normal. It's normal for
(04:41):
these types of events in the stock market where you
get drawn downs, you get what we call, you know,
market volatility, and it's normal for you to be what
fill in the blank. It's normal for you to be
what scared nervous, scared, anxiety, realize that you know you're
(05:03):
not the only one. Financial advisors believe it or not, Folks,
we hate this. We hate it as much as our
clients here. It's not fun because in this world, the
you know, unexpected can happen, and you never know about
what's happening out there in the global because the stock
(05:25):
market is no more domestic. It's global as far as
all the things that are happening in this world. So
if you are nervous, that's okay. But our job is
for us to keep our heads on our shoulder and
basically do not act with emotion, but work on fundamentals.
And we're going to talk a little bit about that today,
(05:46):
about the fundamentals. So if you're down dramatically or if
you feel like you're in the wrong, I just asked
my son. We've got a new software package which I'm
going to get into a little bit. Have you done
a deep dive into your portfolio as far as how
you're allocated in the types of investments. So this new
software package that we have, Chris, what does it have
(06:08):
the capability of doing?
Speaker 4 (06:10):
So we can go in on our end and you know,
if the clients get access to a portal on there
and as well they can view their investments in their
allocations and it'll break it down specific to the category,
you know, whether it's large cap growth, small cap, mid cap,
you know, whatever category of the market your investments are in, bonds,
(06:34):
in cash, and then it'll go in more in depth
and show you which sectors of the market you're also in,
whether that's you know, technology or energy, or industrials or
consumer defensive, so there's different you know, it'll show you
exactly where your money is in, which areas of the
market it's working for you in. And something that we
(06:57):
try to do is mitigate the overlap within funds, which
you see sometimes a lot. You know, some people will
be come in in their investments are in four large
cap growth funds and you know, an international fund and
then some bond funds. But the issue with that is
is you're in four large cap growth funds that are
(07:19):
doing the same thing. You know, they have the same goal,
They're most likely the underlying investments are the same positions.
You know, the mags seven and you know what, the
percentages may be a little bit different, but hitting the
market entirely in different sectors and categories and being diversified
within those sectors and categories is something that you know,
(07:43):
we can easily see now through the software system. So
it's just another tool to use to track where we're at,
where our models are at. Does it show the positions, Yeah,
it'll show the positions like the stocks that are held
by either the funds or the oh, the underlying positions
within the No, we look that up, you know, just
through like morning Star research. We'll see like what the
(08:06):
underlying positions are within the ETFs and mutual funds that
we're investing in.
Speaker 3 (08:11):
So well, that's why a lot of people will say
is that you don't leave your money at another four
oh one K. You don't leave your money at you know,
if you leave x y Z Corporation, you go to
ABC and then you go to you know, x y Z.
You don't leave your money's at the former four oh
one K because you want to make sure that you've
(08:31):
got the proper diversification. So but the thing that you
can need to overemphasize is that you know, in these
times of volatility, time in the market is tempting, right,
You're always saying, oh, you know, I'm going to get
in and get out. But doing so, uh, you know,
ninety ninety percent of the people that try to do
(08:52):
it don't do it, meaning that they build a pattern
of sitting too long on the sidelines and avoiding the
markets down means missing up on the ups. Because seventy
this is the number that I was found astonishing, seventy
eight percent of the stock market's best days have occurred
during a bear market. Yeah.
Speaker 4 (09:14):
Yeah, that was something that the wholesaler who came in
the other day touched on, is that there's this good
uh navigating volatility piece that he emailed over to me
and basically said just that, you know, the worst of
days are followed by some of the best of days,
So staying fully vested through it, you'll be able to
(09:37):
hit both sides of that. So, you know, trying to
time when you know, when's the bottom is it going
to continue falling? Should I sell now? Instead of just
staying through no is you end up hurting yourself in
the end trying to time the market on you know,
when when you get out.
Speaker 3 (09:53):
So here's the other statistic, which I think seventy eight
percent of the stock market's best days have occurred during
a bear Mark. Here's if you miss the markets ten
best days, ten best days on an annual basis over
the past thirty years, your returns would have been cut
in half, and missing the best thirty days would have
(10:14):
reduced your returns by an astonishing eighty three percent. Yeah, wow,
eighty three percent. So you know, if you're trying to
time the market, you're basically putting yourself in a position
where you're already behind the eight ball. So in times
of volatility, what you want to make sure you're doing
is that you've got the right asset allocation. We're going
(10:36):
to talk about the buckets of money when we come back,
why it's important for you to understand the buckets of money,
especially especially if you're in your retirement years, and why
it's important for you to have a cash cash position.
The cash position. But if you have any questions, believe
it or not, folks, my son and I just fell
out of bed. Yeah, it's all fifteen in the afternoon
(11:02):
with teasing. If you have any questions or comments, you
can give us a buzz. We're here live in the
studio today. One eight hundred talk WGY. That's one eight
hundred eight two five fifty nine forty nine. We got
a lot of phone calls this morning from listeners. Don't
be bashful, you don't bite. It always makes it, I
think a little bit more interesting for us and for
the listening audience. So if you have any questions about
(11:22):
the markets, UH, any specific sector of the market, we
we'll try, we'll try to attempt to answer your question.
One eight hundred talk WGY. That's one eight hundred and
eight two five fifty nine forty nine. Plus We've got
to get Zach are very competent engineer, to stop eating
his donuts. He needs to start having a conversation on
(11:44):
the telephone with a perspective caller. How many donuts did
you'd already only two? The eighty six percenters. Do you
know that eighty six percent of the population has no
defined benefit pension plan. For most of us, we have
to take our life savings and create a paycheck for
the rest of our lives in retirement. What is your
plan for retirement income distribution? How you manage your assets
(12:07):
during the most critical years of your lifetime. Nobel Prize
winning economist William Sharp has called retirement income distribution the nastiest,
hardest problem in finance. He points out that investment, uncertainty
and mortality can derail the most careful laid out retirement
income plan. Call our offices today to start the process
of building a retirement income distribution plan. After forty one
(12:29):
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to start taking action to start building your own personal
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That's five one eight, five eight zero one nine one
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(13:13):
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Take action call today five one eight, five eight zero
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Speaker 2 (13:24):
You ain't nothing. You ain't a freedom.
Speaker 6 (13:41):
Said, all right, it's gonna go in here.
Speaker 3 (13:53):
Wake up. A lot of sleepy people out there today.
It's pretty dreary. Yeah, this is the Kopek Cown Dogs.
David and Christopher. We're good to be here, happy to
be here, especially after this week. It's like being in
(14:14):
a boxing match, isn't it. We go through a week
like we went through. Yeah, a little bit, a little bit. Yeah,
the uh, this is the really first time, well not
really the first time. This was pretty impactful. Two days.
You've been with us, now, what three years? Ye, coming
(14:36):
up on four. This is probably the worst that you've
seen it over two days? Mmmm, over two days? Yeah.
Speaker 4 (14:44):
Yeah, twenty twenty two was bad throughout the entirety of
the year, but yeah, on a two day timeframe, this
is probably the worst two days I've seen.
Speaker 3 (14:53):
Yeah. See, when you have events like this, when it's gradual,
people don't you know, get kicked in the teeth as much.
But when it's like this, quick pain versus slow pain. Yeah. So,
but what we want to talk a little bit about
today is how you get through this and avoid making mistakes.
(15:15):
You know, emotion is something that you need to take
out of the equation, and it's very difficult to do
that when you're managing money. But like I said earlier,
our job is to manage the emotion and take it
out of your equation and basically have an investment plan
and sticking to it. That's the key, sticking to it.
(15:36):
So under a situation like this, for people that are
accumulating money, it's great opportunity because of what dollar cost averaging. Yeah.
Speaker 4 (15:45):
Yeah, touched on it a little bit this morning, but
you know, we've had not all the calls were necessarily
pessimistic bad calls. It was more so people nervous about,
you know, what's going on in the market. But then
there is also a people that were sitting on some
cash that were saying, hey, this looks like a pretty
good buying opportunity to me, what do you guys think?
(16:07):
And the conversations I was having was basically like, you
could it is a good buying opportunity, and you could
stretch it out because no one has a crystal ball
on how much farther down this could go or how
quick it could turn around, so you know, stretching it
out over a couple month timeframe and dollar crossed. Averaging
into these equity positions that are getting hit so hard
(16:29):
right now is a good way to get some.
Speaker 3 (16:32):
Exposure back into people's portfolios. This is not about economics either.
You know, this is not about the fundamentals of the companies,
because if you looked at it before all this nonsense
going to be before the stuff hit the fan. You know, everybody,
I knew we were tracking at about a thirteen percent
younal growth rate on earnings. So I don't know what
(16:54):
it means now if we're going to go down to
the single digits, if we're going to stay the course,
who knows. You get ten of on as, you're going
to get ten different answers as far as what's going
to happen. Eventually one of them will be right and
they'll be dancing in the street and they'll be selling
the book the following year. But overall, while there are
times when to be you know, active moving money around,
(17:16):
like we said, the emotional part of this is that
you need to basically stay stay in your lane, stay
in your lane, stay in your asset allocation model. So,
uh well, how how do individuals do that? Chris? How
do they how do they reach out and either talk
to their financial team or you know, if they want
(17:37):
to add money into their portfolio, they also want to
stay within their asset allocation.
Speaker 4 (17:41):
Right, Yeah, staying within your asset allocation, That just goes well.
It starts with like a risk tolerance questionnaire, so figuring
out how risky you want to be with your investments,
and you know, according to whatever equity to bond allocation
you want to be in, whether it's you know, one
hundred percent equities or fifty to fifty, you know you
want more of like a balanced approach or none at all.
(18:05):
So based on their risk tolerance questionnaire and how they
fall in line with that, then their ability to stomach
the risk. You know, you could you could get in
and out of the market, you know, at your leisure.
A lot of the people that we see are more
like I said, people that have cash sitting on the
sidelines or they're rolling over accounts at this point in
(18:27):
time where money's coming in the door and they haven't
been invested yet, but they're now thinking, you know, do
I want to take a little bit more risk With
the market coming down? Does it make more sense to
go a little bit more aggressive? As we're getting hit
to capture more of that upside when we eventually bounce back.
Speaker 3 (18:45):
Yeah. The other big thing too, is that some of
the data that everybody's worried about, as far as the payrolls,
initial well, I can't say initial jobless claims ever, averaged
about two hundred and twenty one thousand so far in
twenty twenty five, and non farm payrolls grew by a
healthy two hundred and twenty eight thousand in March. That's
(19:07):
all above the consensus they expected one hundred and thirty thousand.
But this is the thing that you need to be
aware of. Every month. There's about two hundred and fifty
thousand baby boomers retiring two hundred and fifty about three
hundred million boomers aged sixty five in the year twenty
and twenty five. So there's a lot of individuals that
(19:29):
are going into the green pastors retirement not necessarily because
they're getting laid off. It's they're going into the green
pastors of retirement because they're ready to go. So you
got to make sure that you understand that some of
these numbers might be skewed just by the dynamics of
what's happening with the boomer generation. So you know, we're
(19:49):
going to talk a little bit about the tariffs and
ultimately what it means. But I think, you know, as
I said earlier today on our morning show, I think
what you're going to see is that we're going to
come very quickly to some kind of an understanding with
these companies, and not only with the companies, but also
with the countries what and how this is going to
(20:11):
be implemented, because they need us more than we need them, right. Yeah,
And then if you look at these events that have transpired,
you know, I don't know if this is going to
be a v recovery, if it's going to be a
prolonged recovery, but you know, the market has recovered fairly
quickly in a lot of events. You know, I've been
(20:31):
doing this since nineteen eighty two. In nineteen eighty seven,
we have the dot come bubble in two thousand and
two thousand and two, the financial crisis in two thousand
and eight, two thousand and nine, COVID in twenty and twenty.
We've come out all of these, folks. Okay, so you
got to have the right mindset you're investing in the
(20:53):
stock market. This isn't a CD or money market account.
It's not a guaranteed way to return. And everybody likes
to touchdown account where the market is constantly going up,
but the reality is that's not what happens.
Speaker 4 (21:05):
You're right, Yeah, it's not always going to continue to
grow and grow and grow. There's gonna be years like that.
I think the difference with something like this, though, is
it's not really the companies that selfs are failing, or
there's any issue economically. It's more of just uncertainty with
these tariff policies, and Wall Street in the market itself
(21:26):
just hates the uncertainty of knowing, you know, what could
come out in the news the next day. So everyone's
just selling on the fear that these tariffs we're going
to get into the tariff for and they're just going
to continue to go up. There's gonna be no negotiations,
and then you know, you'll see prices go up by
twenty five percent in the supermarket on foreign goods.
Speaker 3 (21:48):
Yeah. You know. You got to remember too, is that
eighty percent of the trading on the exchanges institutional now
program trading algorithms. So it's not the average joe that's
causing a lot of the sell off. It's program trading.
A lot of these stocks are baskets of stocks ETFs
index funds, so when they get to sell, they're not
(22:08):
buying or selling or buying one position. There's hundreds of
positions that they have to sell in order to satisfy
the liquidation. Yeah.
Speaker 4 (22:18):
Yeah, a lot of the a lot of the trading
right now is is done through these automated you know,
program trading. The market movers who are really pushing it
is these big hedge fund companies Wall Street, you know,
where billions and billions of dollars are going in and
out of these these funds every day, especially on you know,
(22:38):
when volatile volatility hits like we've seen right now, and uncertainty.
You know, the uncertainty thing is just huge as far
as them not knowing what's going to come out or
what Trump's going to say, as far as how these
tariffs are going to be handled.
Speaker 3 (22:52):
So the bottom line, because we're going to have to
break here in about a minute or two for our
first half with time flies when you have fun, huh,
isn't it? There goes another one, Aaron Judge, that's a
home run. You a Yankee fan. No, what do you
like baseball? Do you like baseball? Mets?
Speaker 5 (23:14):
Oh?
Speaker 3 (23:14):
Boy, put a drape up in that so I can't
see your face. I bleed orange and blue. Yeah. So
the bottom line is, okay, I'm not going to bang
the drum here too much. You got to invest without emotion.
I know that's hard to do and it's easier said
(23:35):
than done, but there are some important considerations when you
keep you know, your nose straight and narrow. You're chasing
a certain goal period of time. You need to understand
your risk tolerance. How much volatility are you willing to accept?
If you're pulling your hair out and your pants are
on fire right now, the chances are you probably have
(23:57):
too much exposure to the stock market. You know, understanding
the markets, understanding that you know it's just not a bull.
There is a bear. Embarish trends seem to be about
thirty percent of the time, the bull trends seem to
be about seventy percent of the time, and overall, well,
the times are basically you know, you're taking your emotion
(24:19):
out of it. You also have to follow a discipline
approach and stay the course because market volatility often results
long term, not short term, in the best long term
performance for you as the consumer of stocks and bonds.
It's been proven. There's all sorts of data, there's all
sorts of information. Don't try to time it. It's not timing.
(24:41):
It's time in the market, right.
Speaker 4 (24:46):
Yeah, in the long run, you know, it always has
gone up and it will continue, it will recover and
continue to go. It's just getting I think, you know,
if you see some good news and something comes out
where they're under negotiation or you know there's and it's
not with the smaller players in countries in the game.
I think if something were to come out with Canada, Mexico, China,
(25:08):
you know they're all in negotiations.
Speaker 3 (25:10):
And that negotiations are going on right now.
Speaker 4 (25:14):
Yeah, but if anything good news came out, you would
I think there would be to say, but I think
there would be, you know, a major turnaround.
Speaker 3 (25:22):
No, there's doubt, no doubt. All right, we got to
take a break here. That's a quick first half hour.
This is retirement ready talking about the markets and the
dynamics of investing for what we call an extended period
of time. Don't look at a day to day, look
at over five seven ten. You know, most of your
retirements today are going to last for decades, maybe two
(25:43):
three decades, So you've got to think long term purchasing power.
You can't let your emotions dictate the decisions that you're making.
So we're gonna talk a little bit more about that.
We go back for the second half hour, but again
we're live. You have any questions or comments, it's one
eight hundred talk WGY. That's one eight hundred and eight
to two five fifty nine forty nine. And uh, if you
(26:04):
would like to participate, one eight hundred talk w G
I one eight hundred eight two five fifty nine forty nine,
we'll be right back.
Speaker 2 (26:22):
Every time I look.
Speaker 7 (26:25):
Love, I see love. Man, money just can't buy bundle
from you.
Speaker 2 (26:42):
I truth. All right, that's a good one.
Speaker 3 (26:50):
That is a good song. I could sit and listen
to that instead of babbling here. It's about a Giana gibilin.
Speaker 8 (26:55):
Hey, John, how's Roy Orbison? Do I win?
Speaker 3 (27:00):
Uh? You won? Brother, I'll tell you why. Come over
and get the booby prize.
Speaker 8 (27:08):
Hey, listen, just that you guys, you guys are way
smarter than me when it comes to this stuff. But
with the tariffs, and the tariff war quote unquote, are
we or are we not the biggest dog in the
fight the amen? Okay, so what if we say, hey,
one hundred percent, you don't like that two and just
(27:31):
cripple them? What?
Speaker 3 (27:33):
What?
Speaker 8 (27:33):
Why is everybody running from, you know, Canada and Mexico?
Come on, man, it just seems stupid to me. And
I know what you're saying. If somebody burps the wrong way,
to market goes nuts and you got machines, you got
machines trading and so on and so forth. But if
(27:54):
we're going to go into war, I would match our
economy against anybody, and let's let's go with it. Let's
go right. Well, am I crazy?
Speaker 7 (28:03):
No?
Speaker 3 (28:04):
I agree with you one thousand percent. One thousand percent.
And you know, as far as I'm concerned, and it's
my own personal you know, a communist country such as
China that basically has a horrible record with human rights,
I could care less if I spend I could care
less if I spend one penny over there, I wouldn't
(28:25):
I wouldn't buy it. Absolutely, I wouldn't buy a toothpick
from those guys. So you know, just between you and
I'm with you. You know, I agree one thousand percent, And personally,
when I go out to buy stuff, I make an
effort not to see the sticker on the merchandise or
whatever I'm purchasing that says China. I'd rather pay a
(28:45):
little bit more personally myself because of their policies, what
they do to people, their population, et cetera.
Speaker 8 (28:54):
I mean, you were talking before about you know, the
South Korea. What's South Korea? About the size of Rhode Island. Yeah,
I mean, you know, and we're worried about South to
get it over.
Speaker 9 (29:05):
With, Well, this goes this goes back negotiate with Trump.
This goes back Trump. Yeah, this goes back to Yea,
this goes back to globalization. You know that, you know,
we're all one big society, We're one big you know, supermarket.
We all basically intertwined with one another. Problem is is that,
(29:27):
you know what, we're the ones that get that are
getting kicked in the can, and everybody else is kind
of dancing in the streets saying, you know, see, I
can't believe we're getting by. I can't believe that these
guys are doing this.
Speaker 3 (29:37):
And you know what Trump has been, you know, Obama's
talked about it, Pelosi's talked about it. All the previous
presents have talked about it, and nobody has done anything
about it. They've talked about it, but they've never implemented anything.
And Trump has said, this is it no more. We're
not going to do this anymore. We're not going to
be taken for you know, you know, a short ride.
(29:58):
And I support the guy, to be honest with you,
I don't like this volatility, but that's what we got.
Speaker 8 (30:07):
We've been everybody's atm We've been everybody's protection. We've been
everybody's saviors when they have a natural disaster. And I'm
not saying we shouldn't help the rest of the world,
but at the same time, they shouldn't be taking advantage
of us. And You're right, they're laughing all the way
(30:27):
to the bank. Yeah, and we're the ones here that
are like, oh my god, you know, the world's going
to end And it just seems crazy to me. And
again I'm not an economist by any strategy of the imagination,
but it seems to me that hey, look, you want
to fight, let's fight, or do you want to get along?
Make up your mind? So is my rant for today.
Speaker 3 (30:51):
Okay, you're part of our choir and you can participate
now on every weekend. So you're singing, you're singing to
the choir. Baby, there's no easy answer. There's no easy answer. Okay,
you know, China, Vietnam, Thailand, Taiwan, India, South Korea, European Union.
(31:18):
You know, here's the why are there's so many BMW's, Mercedes,
Benz Lexus, Nissans. You know, why are there so many
of those automobiles here in the United States and there's
not a lot of cars overseas, Chevys, Buicks, you know,
GMC trucks, whatever it may be. Because the headwind in
(31:42):
order for us to get our products over there, they're
basically kicking us in the teeth and it's going to
cost a hell of a lot more for an American product. So,
you know, you might not like the way the message
is coming out, but the bottom mine gets down to
is that we have thirty six trillion dollars a debt
(32:04):
that's with a T trillion, and the way they spend
money down there, we're going to be at forty or
fifty trillion dollars and a high percentage of our revenue
is going to go to pay debt, not to give
anybody quality of life, et cetera. So I don't have
(32:24):
to tell there's no one that's listening to this that
doesn't understand we need to make changes. You can call
it terroriffs, you can call it retaliatory, but bottom line
gets down to is that most of these countries are
reliant on the good old USA with their exports that
(32:47):
basically pay their bills.
Speaker 4 (32:51):
You agree, Yeah, I agree. I think you know. The
thing is that all these countries, all the ones that
you just listed, Yeah, they're tariffing everything out of coming
out of the United States. So why why can't it
happen the other way around? I think you know. The
way it's being delivered is that's the problem, right, It's
coming across is like an aggressive enough is enough kind
(33:12):
of approach to it, rather than a gradual, you know,
easing into it through negotiations. It's just all or nothing,
like here you go, this is what is going to happen,
and we're doing it right now.
Speaker 3 (33:22):
I don't like what happened in the last couple of days.
I got kicked in the teeth. Well, yeah, I mean
my brokerage account.
Speaker 5 (33:29):
You know.
Speaker 3 (33:29):
I don't even want to look at it because I
start tears come up well up. But the bottom I
gets down to is that I'm willing to go through
it in order for us to have a better society,
more economic growth for us the US economy, and put
our kids and our grandkids in a better position as
far as this ball and chain we're putting around their neck,
(33:50):
as far as the debt service that they're going to
pay off because we didn't have the you know what,
in order to basically do what needs to get done,
we need to grow a set. That's the bottom line.
We've got to put ourselves in a position where we say,
you know what, here's the line in the sand, no more.
And you know, they can talk about Musk and trying
(34:13):
to to destroy him, kill his business. You know, I
think it's horrible what they're doing to him personally, that's
my personal feeling. You can disagree with somebody without you know,
basically saying that you want to kill him and all
the other things. But the bottom line gets down to
is that he is unearthing corruption, a multitude of money
(34:35):
that's going out the door, that's basically paying for what
starts with a sea starts with a sea right crap,
A bunch of nonsets, right, that's what it is. It's
a bunch of nonsense. And so the thing is is
that it's bad enough that we're in the society that
we're in today. We've got vets. You know, I watched
(34:58):
these things on TV, these wounded warriors and tee to
tea tunnel to towers, these individuals that have made the
ultimate sacrifice for this nation. Right, that's where the money
should be going for our vets. That's where it should
be going. For those guys to even have to run
a commercial because they need help or assistance, I think
(35:20):
it is pathetic. So that's my own personal feeling. So
you know, everybody's worried about the R word again, recession.
I don't think we're going to have a downturn. I
think we might chug along here and might have a
little bit of a slow down. But remember, they need us.
(35:42):
Those ships that are loaded with all those container ships
that are coming from China to the United States. Say stop, then,
see just say stop, don't send them, we don't need them.
And you'll see how quick they come to the table
and say, yes, we'll do a deal. We'll do a deal.
Speaker 4 (36:01):
Yeah, I mean, I think the gradual approach and through
you know, he already said a lot of the countries
have already come out and are open to negotiations.
Speaker 3 (36:10):
Uh.
Speaker 4 (36:11):
So we'll see, hopefully next week some good news comes
out in you know, where things kind of start slowing
down and they don't just keep doubling down on these
tariffs over and over again and everything will kind of
come to a happy ending.
Speaker 3 (36:26):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (36:26):
But yeah, I totally agree with the uh the Elon
Musk thing. I mean, it's pretty it should it should
be pretty bipartisan, you know, him calling out and saying
the corruption that's in government and how much spending went
to just nothing really like nothing that was improving society
(36:48):
in general. So it's like, I don't I don't see
how anyone could look at him and what he's doing.
Speaker 3 (36:53):
Your ag is a hero the year ago, people that
are I have in Tesla's he was a hero. Now
he's a zero because he's unearthing all of this waste, fraud, corruption.
I mean, you know, it's like he said, he made
a statement, how did these people go to Washington basically
(37:17):
don't have two plug nickels in their pocket and by
the time they come out, they're multimillionaires. Yeah, on the
salaries of congressmans. Yeah, the net worth is pretty staggering
to see. The stock return, Yeah, percentages are pretty staggering
to see. It doesn't necessarily make sense. You know, they
say no insider trading. It seems like, you know, that
(37:41):
doesn't necessarily always happen. But bottom mine it is this.
I'll tell you what we'll get. We'll get there, We'll
get there were our target is in front of us.
As far as ultimately what needs to get done. You
know what, I don't care how they do it, how
they slice it, how they dice it, terriffs, no tear.
We've got to basically address this debt that we have
(38:03):
as a nation, because if we don't, everybody knows what
it's what the end result is cataclismic. That's the word
that they use, cataclismic consequences. We'll be right back after
this message. Your partner for Success, David Kopik, heir WG
Wise Retirement Planning specialists, the Retirement Planning Group. We understand
that retirees face many important decisions that can affect their
(38:26):
long term financial success. Some of these decisions revolve around
making investments that will help create a hedge against outliving
their assets, the impact of inflation, taxation, and rising health
care couests. Most of our clients like the time, the desire,
or the experience to manage their own investment portfolios. We
(38:47):
consider it to be an honor and a privilege to
help our clients make sound investment decisions that will contribute
to a secure financial future for them. Because over ninety
percent of our clients or retirees with similar concerns, we
are in the best position to approach such challenges with
experience and skill. Give us a call today at five
(39:07):
one eight, five eight zero one nine one nine five
one eight five eight zero one nine one nine or
RPG retire on the web. Will you run out of
money in retirement where your investments provide income for possibly decades?
How do you navigate the two greatest risk in retirement,
sequence of returns in longevity at the Retirement Planning Group.
Our Bucket of Money approach addresses these concerns and we
(39:29):
offer a complimentary consultation to discuss this with you. Call
our office today for a free complimentary consultation to develop
your own personal retirement income distribution plan at five pine
eight five eight zero one nine one nine. That's five
win eight five eat zero one nine one.
Speaker 2 (39:44):
Nine one through a party in account in jail lands,
John John began to swing son I hadn't.
Speaker 3 (40:00):
Locked down jail Patsy.
Speaker 2 (40:05):
And almost tail around spying them.
Speaker 1 (40:14):
I've been playing as a saxophone, little Joey blowing on
the side, drombone, drama, blowing alonormo, crash boom bank, whole.
Speaker 2 (40:23):
Rhythm, section one of the Purple Game.
Speaker 3 (40:26):
All right there, just hanging out here and latham and dancing.
You know, folks, I've been doing it now for forty
three years. This is my forty third year. I started
nineteen eighty two in the financial services industry. This too
(40:49):
show pass. Okay, this two show pass. You know, don't
try to get to you know, aggressive with your portfolio.
Stay within your lane, monitor it, make sure that you're navigating.
But here here's the key that you want to understand.
It's one of the things that we talk about all
(41:09):
the time when people commend to work with us, is
that you need to understand the buckets of money approach.
That's what we use. We use what we call the
buckets of money, and we always have what a cash position, Yeah,
bucket one. So the buckets of money approached. You know,
there's three buckets that we emphasize. The first bucket being cash,
(41:30):
so that's any type of cash or cash alternative like
a money market fund, so.
Speaker 4 (41:36):
Treasury short term treasury, short term treasuries, yep. And then
accounting for you know, dividends that are going to be
kicked into that bucket one. So that leads us to
bucket two, which is, you know, income producing assets that
are filling bucket one. These being bond positions, uh, you know,
treasuries or equity positions that act like a bond that
are paying a dividend. Myga's, m yga's. You know, these
(41:58):
are all bucket two items. And then bucket three is
your growth factor. Those are going to be your equity positions.
That's you know, your your sleeve of your portfolio that
you're trying to shoot for the moon, hit all the
growth you can, you know, whether that's you know, technology
funds or SMP five hundred like funds, whether it's an
ETF mutual fund. To get the growth factor in there.
(42:23):
And that's important because think about it, you close your eyes.
I know my wife and I were talking just recently.
We're looking at some of the numbers when we first
moved into our house and what we were paying at taxes,
what the cost of goods and services were.
Speaker 3 (42:38):
What a cost for gasoline? When I moved into my house,
the costs of gasoline and half moon was eighty nine
cents a gallon. Eighty nine cents a gallon? What is
it now? Three dollars in change, So everything goes up.
So you've got to have purchasing power. Think about healthcare.
What does healthcare cost you today? That's you know, that
would blow your eyeballs out of your head. So you've
(43:00):
got to make sure that you've got your assets allocated properly.
And you can't have your knees knocking when you have
market volatility, because you need growth in your portfolio. Because
if you're going to have a twenty or thirty year
window for your retirement, which is not going to be
uncommon in the years to come. O earldest client has
passed away. He was one hundred and two years old,
(43:21):
So you're going to live a hell of a lot
longer than you think. And the bottom line is is
that you've got to make sure that you understand with
that l word longevity comes to our word risk. You've
got to have growth in your portfolio.
Speaker 4 (43:35):
Yeah, you need that long term growth, but you know
you also need the other side of it is the
income producing assets for times like these that you can
pull from and you're not necessarily having to sell out
of your growth while the market's down. So having that
bucket two filling into bucket one where you have that
nest egg of cash collecting these dividends and interestparing assets,
(43:58):
whether it's you know, ETFs, mutual funds paying in the
bucket one. You know, being able to pull from that
during times like this and having cash on hand is important.
Speaker 3 (44:10):
The other thing is too, is that you know, the
buzzword on Wall Street. Now there's always buzzwords. There's always
you know, cocktail party talk, private equity, you know all
these different types of investments which we call alternative investments.
Just buyer beware, Okay, understand that these are typically investments
for high net worth people, people that have substantial assets.
(44:35):
They act as a heads to the portfolio. But believe me,
you know, not all of these types of investments work out.
The big thing is liquidity. You don't necessarily get your
money when you want the money. You get the money
when they pay it to you. And I just watched
a presentation on one the other day and they basically
said if things don't work out, you could literally take months,
if not years, for you to basically get your money back.
(44:58):
If you get it back.
Speaker 4 (45:00):
Yeah, there's there's other options too in that field where
they're starting to the private space is becoming less and
less private. It's becoming more accessible to the average joe.
So we see mutual funds come across the table where
it's in the private market. You know, there's sectors that
you can hit now, but the look there is liquidity issues,
(45:20):
so you cannot really go and grab the money at
your convenience if you need it. You know, it's more
of like a carve out taking five ten percent of
your portfolio and putting in these alternative funds to try
and grab you know, it's a separate sector of the
market and a lot of them that we're seeing or
quarterly liquidity, so you can grab it four times a
(45:42):
year if you need it.
Speaker 3 (45:44):
Maybe not all of it though, certain percentage you can take.
But you know, here's here's the the nine to one one,
here's the shot over the bow. With Drawing money in
a declining portfolio without a doubt is a sure fireway
to accelerate the depletion of that account. So make sure
(46:05):
when we work with individuals, we build what we call
baseline income. Sounds kind of corny, okay, but we take
our e money software package and we put it into
the package and we run if they have a pension,
solid security benefits, what we anticipate that we can take
off the portfolios on an annual basis, and it gives
us a number, and it gives us a success rate
(46:27):
as far as what is the actual percentage ninety god
is it? Does it actually go to one hundred percent?
Speaker 4 (46:34):
Yeah, yeah, you can go. It'll build out. So it
gives you like a growth rate, inflation rate. All the
assets under management, you know, any type, if they're still working,
you know, current contributing assets to their plans, you know,
whatever they're contributing on a monthly basis, what their employer
is putting in. You know, there's a lot of factors
that go into it, even just the basic projection that
(46:57):
they have access to on their website. But the we
always like to underestimate for growth rate and overestimate for
inflation rate because we're trying to give people a baseline
on what they can feel comfortable with in retirement. So
it's not we're not trying to show people growth rates
of you know, eight, nine, ten percent, something that is
pretty hard to withstand over a long period of time,
(47:18):
which we run with six and three six and three
or seven and three. Yeah, you know, the six percent growth,
three percent inflation. Yeah, if we know they're a more
conservative investor, it's going to be like a six and
three look on it. And if they want to start
taking income like immediately, it's a six and three and
then it'll spit out, you know, like an annual comfortable
(47:42):
annual spend level for them that between their social security,
if they have a pension, it's going to you know,
kick out some number for them that they can at
least feel comfortable with. We can feel comfortable with saying,
you know, based on this software system, this is giving
you a range on what is a comfort spend level
for you.
Speaker 3 (48:02):
Yeah. And the key to that too, of course, is
that as unnerving as these market drops are, you got
to have a little bit of a perspective. I hate
you know, I hate to say this, but the reality
is a high quality you know, blue chip blue bond portfolio,
diversified long term has never gone down. Okay, you look
(48:25):
over in the next last five, seven, ten years. So
the thing is is that you're in this is really
a point in time. That's how you gotta look at it.
What we call a point in time. And you know,
there's a lot of times when we sit down because
a guy that might get into the portfolio in the
beginning of this year versus a guy that gets into
the portfolio let's say maya this year, they're gonna have
(48:45):
a whole different net return on their portfolio as of
December thirty first of twenty twenty five. You know, some
of them are gonna be dancing in the street and
some might say, you know, it was an average year.
It was a horrible year. So just realize is that
you know, your point of entry into your retirement years,
especially your retirement years, is critical that you understand that
(49:09):
you build that cash position, that bucket one before you
walk out the door.
Speaker 4 (49:14):
Yeah, you know, point of entry is is obviously huge.
A lot of people like you said, who came in
to the office in January of this year and invested
their money or you know, not too happy. But the
people that are coming in now have a lot better
of an opportunity as far as point of entry. But
(49:34):
and that's the other thing too. The bond market really
hasn't come back from the twenty twenty two drop in
the bond market. So it's it's an opportunity that we've
kept our eyes on just to see this area in
the market. You know, the bonds with where interest rates
are at right now haven't really come back to their
(49:54):
where they were pre twenty twenty two. So as far
as like a IVY or look back on the bond market,
they are still down. It's just a matter of time.
Speaker 5 (50:05):
You know.
Speaker 4 (50:05):
Once these rates start getting cut, the underlying bond positions
within these mutual funds should appreciate and go.
Speaker 3 (50:11):
No, but you didn't have any coupon back then. There
was no interest rate, right, So the thing is is
that you had very little, if any capital appreciation. You
just had the coupon, and as interest rates went up,
the actual nav of the portfolios went down because of
the higher interest rates. So you know, I know that
there's going to be some anxiety. Like I said earlier
this morning we were on the very first show, just
(50:33):
be aware that there was probably a lot of forced
selling on Friday, and there'll probably be a lot of
force selling on Monday. You know, there's a thing out
there called margin margin accounts, and you know, when the
bell rings, they don't have an option. They have to
sell the positions because they have to cover the margin call.
(50:55):
So I would not be surprised that Monday, when we
get up and get going here in the markets, that
you're probably gonna see some pressure simply because of margin
calls that whether they want to sell or not, they're
going to have to sell at the open, right. Yeah.
Speaker 4 (51:11):
Yeah, you know a lot of these margin calls, a
lot of these companies that have kind of gotten kicked
in the teeth over the last month, you know, potentially
next week. That's what we're kind of keeping our eyes on.
Is it going to continue to sell off at least
in the beginning of the week it's set up to
you know, no real great news has come out since then.
Speaker 3 (51:31):
But well, uh, well he made a stake today too
that you know, hang tough. Yeah, that was his response
on Truth Central. So the thing is is that we'll
say hopefully you know, they'll be more scuttle, but up
there'll be more information that will be coming out. But
you know, as I said, this too shall pass. Sit tight.
My feeling is is that they need us more than
(51:51):
we need them. And I know that you know, everybody's
going to be talking about you know, China, China, China,
but it's more than just China. It's basically we're trying
to get ourselves back where our balance sheet for our
ability to pair debt and do all the things that
we need to do for the social programs are going
to be able to be in existence for an extended
(52:14):
period of time, because all we hear about is when
Social Security is going to go broke, and Medicare and
all the other programs that a lot of people are
extremely relying on. So I know these are stressful times,
but like anything else, this two shall pass. So we'll
see you next week for another Retirement Ready show. I'm
(52:34):
Dave Kopek with my son Christopher. We'll see you next week.
Speaker 1 (52:39):
Thank you for listening to Retirement Ready hosted by Dave Kopec.
If you would like to talk with Dave or someone
at the Retirement Planning Group called five one eight, five
eight zero one nine one nine. That's five one eight,
five eight zero one nine one nine during business hours
or visit RPG retire dot com. The Retirement Planning Group
has five convenient offices located in Albany, Malta, Glens Falls, Pontiata,
(53:04):
and Syracuse. Tune in again next week at noon for
Retirement Planning Strategies with David Kopek, or Saturdays at seven
am for the Retirement Planning Show.
Speaker 4 (53:15):
The information or services discussed on this shows for informational
purposes only and is not intended to be personal financial advice.
Speaker 3 (53:21):
The investments and services offered by US may not be
suitable for all investors. If you have any doubts as
to the merits of an investment, you should seek advice
from an independent financial advisor.
Live from the wgy iHeart Studios. Welcome to Retirement Ready
with your host Dave Kopek from the Retirement Planning Group.
Every week, Dave and his team discuss the ways they
can help people make informed decisions about their retirement assets
to maintain, improve, and secure their desired quality of life.
Here's your host, Dave Coppet.
Speaker 2 (00:40):
Pretty woman walking down the street, Pretty woman of kind
of like you me, pretty woman. I don't mena you.
No one can look as good as you.
Speaker 3 (01:04):
It's Saturday.
Speaker 4 (01:07):
The only thing I remember when I hear this song
is dumb and dumber. Oh man, these guys are getting
all dressed up.
Speaker 3 (01:14):
Blew it. I'm all excited. Here, got some nice, nice music.
Speaker 5 (01:22):
Go.
Speaker 3 (01:22):
When you're talking about dumb and.
Speaker 4 (01:23):
Dumber, it's the first thing that pops in my mind.
Speaker 3 (01:27):
Just don't ask them what the most annoying sound in
the world is. Oh god, that was funny. The first
one was good. The second one, I.
Speaker 4 (01:40):
Just it wasn't great. There's too much time between the
first one and the s I.
Speaker 3 (01:44):
Don't think you know what you can't what's the old saying?
You can't create lightning? Lightning doesn't strike twice? A lightning
doesn't strike twice or lightning in a ball or something
like that. It's an idiot. Look it up. Look it
up there, idiot, no idiom. Well, happy afternoon, everybody. It's Saturday,
(02:12):
and it's uh April fifth, and it feels like it's
April of two, thy twenty nine. This has not been
a fun week, as we're all quite well aware, right. Nope, No,
hasn't been fun. What was the worst part about this week,
my son, Christopher, I.
Speaker 4 (02:34):
Guess just the market performance, seeing the market go down,
you know, clients calling in worried, scared about their accounts,
having to talk them off the ledge a little bit.
Speaker 3 (02:45):
Yeah, my hair is on fire. Fire, fire, my hair
is on fire. You're gonna talk a little bit about that,
you know. It's uh, this is a topic specific show.
So today we're going to talk about what's going on
in the markets and focus in on some things that
you should and should not do and hopefully in today's
(03:08):
Barons if you get Barons, whether it's the digital or
the hard copy. Here's a headline, Christopher, let's hear it.
Did you say hi to your mom? Hello? Mother? What
else you're supposed to say?
Speaker 5 (03:24):
But oh, I love you? If you're listening, she's listening
and just made her day. She's clicking her heels and
cleaning that house like a robot. Headlines Barons, Hey, retirees,
(03:47):
the best thing to do to your stock portfolio is
fell on the blank, Hey retirees, the best thing to
do to your stock portfolio.
Speaker 3 (03:59):
Is diversify it. Don't sell out of it. Nothing. There
you go. A lot of people on the edge. Stock
markets tumble. What it's important to realize is that when
these type of events happen, which is more common than uncommon.
If you remember last year, in the beginning of the year,
(04:20):
we were down about twenty percent YEP. In twenty twenty four,
we told everybody to take a chill pill, set on
the sidelines. You'll be okay, and we're up what over
twenty percent for the year, Chris, Yes, we were end
of the year very strong. But it's important that you
understand exactly that you know, it's normal. It's normal for
(04:41):
these types of events in the stock market where you
get drawn downs, you get what we call, you know,
market volatility, and it's normal for you to be what
fill in the blank. It's normal for you to be
what scared nervous, scared, anxiety, realize that you know you're
(05:03):
not the only one. Financial advisors believe it or not, Folks,
we hate this. We hate it as much as our
clients here. It's not fun because in this world, the
you know, unexpected can happen, and you never know about
what's happening out there in the global because the stock
(05:25):
market is no more domestic. It's global as far as
all the things that are happening in this world. So
if you are nervous, that's okay. But our job is
for us to keep our heads on our shoulder and
basically do not act with emotion, but work on fundamentals.
And we're going to talk a little bit about that today,
(05:46):
about the fundamentals. So if you're down dramatically or if
you feel like you're in the wrong, I just asked
my son. We've got a new software package which I'm
going to get into a little bit. Have you done
a deep dive into your portfolio as far as how
you're allocated in the types of investments. So this new
software package that we have, Chris, what does it have
(06:08):
the capability of doing?
Speaker 4 (06:10):
So we can go in on our end and you know,
if the clients get access to a portal on there
and as well they can view their investments in their
allocations and it'll break it down specific to the category,
you know, whether it's large cap growth, small cap, mid cap,
you know, whatever category of the market your investments are in, bonds,
(06:34):
in cash, and then it'll go in more in depth
and show you which sectors of the market you're also in,
whether that's you know, technology or energy, or industrials or
consumer defensive, so there's different you know, it'll show you
exactly where your money is in, which areas of the
market it's working for you in. And something that we
(06:57):
try to do is mitigate the overlap within funds, which
you see sometimes a lot. You know, some people will
be come in in their investments are in four large
cap growth funds and you know, an international fund and
then some bond funds. But the issue with that is
is you're in four large cap growth funds that are
(07:19):
doing the same thing. You know, they have the same goal,
They're most likely the underlying investments are the same positions.
You know, the mags seven and you know what, the
percentages may be a little bit different, but hitting the
market entirely in different sectors and categories and being diversified
within those sectors and categories is something that you know,
(07:43):
we can easily see now through the software system. So
it's just another tool to use to track where we're at,
where our models are at. Does it show the positions, Yeah,
it'll show the positions like the stocks that are held
by either the funds or the oh, the underlying positions
within the No, we look that up, you know, just
through like morning Star research. We'll see like what the
(08:06):
underlying positions are within the ETFs and mutual funds that
we're investing in.
Speaker 3 (08:11):
So well, that's why a lot of people will say
is that you don't leave your money at another four
oh one K. You don't leave your money at you know,
if you leave x y Z Corporation, you go to
ABC and then you go to you know, x y Z.
You don't leave your money's at the former four oh
one K because you want to make sure that you've
(08:31):
got the proper diversification. So but the thing that you
can need to overemphasize is that you know, in these
times of volatility, time in the market is tempting, right,
You're always saying, oh, you know, I'm going to get
in and get out. But doing so, uh, you know,
ninety ninety percent of the people that try to do
(08:52):
it don't do it, meaning that they build a pattern
of sitting too long on the sidelines and avoiding the
markets down means missing up on the ups. Because seventy
this is the number that I was found astonishing, seventy
eight percent of the stock market's best days have occurred
during a bear market. Yeah.
Speaker 4 (09:14):
Yeah, that was something that the wholesaler who came in
the other day touched on, is that there's this good
uh navigating volatility piece that he emailed over to me
and basically said just that, you know, the worst of
days are followed by some of the best of days,
So staying fully vested through it, you'll be able to
(09:37):
hit both sides of that. So, you know, trying to
time when you know, when's the bottom is it going
to continue falling? Should I sell now? Instead of just
staying through no is you end up hurting yourself in
the end trying to time the market on you know,
when when you get out.
Speaker 3 (09:53):
So here's the other statistic, which I think seventy eight
percent of the stock market's best days have occurred during
a bear Mark. Here's if you miss the markets ten
best days, ten best days on an annual basis over
the past thirty years, your returns would have been cut
in half, and missing the best thirty days would have
(10:14):
reduced your returns by an astonishing eighty three percent. Yeah, wow,
eighty three percent. So you know, if you're trying to
time the market, you're basically putting yourself in a position
where you're already behind the eight ball. So in times
of volatility, what you want to make sure you're doing
is that you've got the right asset allocation. We're going
(10:36):
to talk about the buckets of money when we come back,
why it's important for you to understand the buckets of money,
especially especially if you're in your retirement years, and why
it's important for you to have a cash cash position.
The cash position. But if you have any questions, believe
it or not, folks, my son and I just fell
out of bed. Yeah, it's all fifteen in the afternoon
(11:02):
with teasing. If you have any questions or comments, you
can give us a buzz. We're here live in the
studio today. One eight hundred talk WGY. That's one eight
hundred eight two five fifty nine forty nine. We got
a lot of phone calls this morning from listeners. Don't
be bashful, you don't bite. It always makes it, I
think a little bit more interesting for us and for
the listening audience. So if you have any questions about
(11:22):
the markets, UH, any specific sector of the market, we
we'll try, we'll try to attempt to answer your question.
One eight hundred talk WGY. That's one eight hundred and
eight two five fifty nine forty nine. Plus We've got
to get Zach are very competent engineer, to stop eating
his donuts. He needs to start having a conversation on
(11:44):
the telephone with a perspective caller. How many donuts did
you'd already only two? The eighty six percenters. Do you
know that eighty six percent of the population has no
defined benefit pension plan. For most of us, we have
to take our life savings and create a paycheck for
the rest of our lives in retirement. What is your
plan for retirement income distribution? How you manage your assets
(12:07):
during the most critical years of your lifetime. Nobel Prize
winning economist William Sharp has called retirement income distribution the nastiest,
hardest problem in finance. He points out that investment, uncertainty
and mortality can derail the most careful laid out retirement
income plan. Call our offices today to start the process
of building a retirement income distribution plan. After forty one
(12:29):
years of being in the financial services business, you need
to start taking action to start building your own personal
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That's five one eight, five eight zero one nine one
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Call the Retirement Planning Group today discuss options you should
(13:13):
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Take action call today five one eight, five eight zero
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Speaker 2 (13:24):
You ain't nothing. You ain't a freedom.
Speaker 6 (13:41):
Said, all right, it's gonna go in here.
Speaker 3 (13:53):
Wake up. A lot of sleepy people out there today.
It's pretty dreary. Yeah, this is the Kopek Cown Dogs.
David and Christopher. We're good to be here, happy to
be here, especially after this week. It's like being in
(14:14):
a boxing match, isn't it. We go through a week
like we went through. Yeah, a little bit, a little bit. Yeah,
the uh, this is the really first time, well not
really the first time. This was pretty impactful. Two days.
You've been with us, now, what three years? Ye, coming
(14:36):
up on four. This is probably the worst that you've
seen it over two days? Mmmm, over two days? Yeah.
Speaker 4 (14:44):
Yeah, twenty twenty two was bad throughout the entirety of
the year, but yeah, on a two day timeframe, this
is probably the worst two days I've seen.
Speaker 3 (14:53):
Yeah. See, when you have events like this, when it's gradual,
people don't you know, get kicked in the teeth as much.
But when it's like this, quick pain versus slow pain. Yeah. So,
but what we want to talk a little bit about
today is how you get through this and avoid making mistakes.
(15:15):
You know, emotion is something that you need to take
out of the equation, and it's very difficult to do
that when you're managing money. But like I said earlier,
our job is to manage the emotion and take it
out of your equation and basically have an investment plan
and sticking to it. That's the key, sticking to it.
(15:36):
So under a situation like this, for people that are
accumulating money, it's great opportunity because of what dollar cost averaging. Yeah.
Speaker 4 (15:45):
Yeah, touched on it a little bit this morning, but
you know, we've had not all the calls were necessarily
pessimistic bad calls. It was more so people nervous about,
you know, what's going on in the market. But then
there is also a people that were sitting on some
cash that were saying, hey, this looks like a pretty
good buying opportunity to me, what do you guys think?
(16:07):
And the conversations I was having was basically like, you
could it is a good buying opportunity, and you could
stretch it out because no one has a crystal ball
on how much farther down this could go or how
quick it could turn around, so you know, stretching it
out over a couple month timeframe and dollar crossed. Averaging
into these equity positions that are getting hit so hard
(16:29):
right now is a good way to get some.
Speaker 3 (16:32):
Exposure back into people's portfolios. This is not about economics either.
You know, this is not about the fundamentals of the companies,
because if you looked at it before all this nonsense
going to be before the stuff hit the fan. You know, everybody,
I knew we were tracking at about a thirteen percent
younal growth rate on earnings. So I don't know what
(16:54):
it means now if we're going to go down to
the single digits, if we're going to stay the course,
who knows. You get ten of on as, you're going
to get ten different answers as far as what's going
to happen. Eventually one of them will be right and
they'll be dancing in the street and they'll be selling
the book the following year. But overall, while there are
times when to be you know, active moving money around,
(17:16):
like we said, the emotional part of this is that
you need to basically stay stay in your lane, stay
in your lane, stay in your asset allocation model. So,
uh well, how how do individuals do that? Chris? How
do they how do they reach out and either talk
to their financial team or you know, if they want
(17:37):
to add money into their portfolio, they also want to
stay within their asset allocation.
Speaker 4 (17:41):
Right, Yeah, staying within your asset allocation, That just goes well.
It starts with like a risk tolerance questionnaire, so figuring
out how risky you want to be with your investments,
and you know, according to whatever equity to bond allocation
you want to be in, whether it's you know, one
hundred percent equities or fifty to fifty, you know you
want more of like a balanced approach or none at all.
(18:05):
So based on their risk tolerance questionnaire and how they
fall in line with that, then their ability to stomach
the risk. You know, you could you could get in
and out of the market, you know, at your leisure.
A lot of the people that we see are more
like I said, people that have cash sitting on the
sidelines or they're rolling over accounts at this point in
(18:27):
time where money's coming in the door and they haven't
been invested yet, but they're now thinking, you know, do
I want to take a little bit more risk With
the market coming down? Does it make more sense to
go a little bit more aggressive? As we're getting hit
to capture more of that upside when we eventually bounce back.
Speaker 3 (18:45):
Yeah. The other big thing too, is that some of
the data that everybody's worried about, as far as the payrolls,
initial well, I can't say initial jobless claims ever, averaged
about two hundred and twenty one thousand so far in
twenty twenty five, and non farm payrolls grew by a
healthy two hundred and twenty eight thousand in March. That's
(19:07):
all above the consensus they expected one hundred and thirty thousand.
But this is the thing that you need to be
aware of. Every month. There's about two hundred and fifty
thousand baby boomers retiring two hundred and fifty about three
hundred million boomers aged sixty five in the year twenty
and twenty five. So there's a lot of individuals that
(19:29):
are going into the green pastors retirement not necessarily because
they're getting laid off. It's they're going into the green
pastors of retirement because they're ready to go. So you
got to make sure that you understand that some of
these numbers might be skewed just by the dynamics of
what's happening with the boomer generation. So you know, we're
(19:49):
going to talk a little bit about the tariffs and
ultimately what it means. But I think, you know, as
I said earlier today on our morning show, I think
what you're going to see is that we're going to
come very quickly to some kind of an understanding with
these companies, and not only with the companies, but also
with the countries what and how this is going to
(20:11):
be implemented, because they need us more than we need them, right. Yeah,
And then if you look at these events that have transpired,
you know, I don't know if this is going to
be a v recovery, if it's going to be a
prolonged recovery, but you know, the market has recovered fairly
quickly in a lot of events. You know, I've been
(20:31):
doing this since nineteen eighty two. In nineteen eighty seven,
we have the dot come bubble in two thousand and
two thousand and two, the financial crisis in two thousand
and eight, two thousand and nine, COVID in twenty and twenty.
We've come out all of these, folks. Okay, so you
got to have the right mindset you're investing in the
(20:53):
stock market. This isn't a CD or money market account.
It's not a guaranteed way to return. And everybody likes
to touchdown account where the market is constantly going up,
but the reality is that's not what happens.
Speaker 4 (21:05):
You're right, Yeah, it's not always going to continue to
grow and grow and grow. There's gonna be years like that.
I think the difference with something like this, though, is
it's not really the companies that selfs are failing, or
there's any issue economically. It's more of just uncertainty with
these tariff policies, and Wall Street in the market itself
(21:26):
just hates the uncertainty of knowing, you know, what could
come out in the news the next day. So everyone's
just selling on the fear that these tariffs we're going
to get into the tariff for and they're just going
to continue to go up. There's gonna be no negotiations,
and then you know, you'll see prices go up by
twenty five percent in the supermarket on foreign goods.
Speaker 3 (21:48):
Yeah. You know. You got to remember too, is that
eighty percent of the trading on the exchanges institutional now
program trading algorithms. So it's not the average joe that's
causing a lot of the sell off. It's program trading.
A lot of these stocks are baskets of stocks ETFs
index funds, so when they get to sell, they're not
(22:08):
buying or selling or buying one position. There's hundreds of
positions that they have to sell in order to satisfy
the liquidation. Yeah.
Speaker 4 (22:18):
Yeah, a lot of the a lot of the trading
right now is is done through these automated you know,
program trading. The market movers who are really pushing it
is these big hedge fund companies Wall Street, you know,
where billions and billions of dollars are going in and
out of these these funds every day, especially on you know,
(22:38):
when volatile volatility hits like we've seen right now, and uncertainty.
You know, the uncertainty thing is just huge as far
as them not knowing what's going to come out or
what Trump's going to say, as far as how these
tariffs are going to be handled.
Speaker 3 (22:52):
So the bottom line, because we're going to have to
break here in about a minute or two for our
first half with time flies when you have fun, huh,
isn't it? There goes another one, Aaron Judge, that's a
home run. You a Yankee fan. No, what do you
like baseball? Do you like baseball? Mets?
Speaker 5 (23:14):
Oh?
Speaker 3 (23:14):
Boy, put a drape up in that so I can't
see your face. I bleed orange and blue. Yeah. So
the bottom line is, okay, I'm not going to bang
the drum here too much. You got to invest without emotion.
I know that's hard to do and it's easier said
(23:35):
than done, but there are some important considerations when you
keep you know, your nose straight and narrow. You're chasing
a certain goal period of time. You need to understand
your risk tolerance. How much volatility are you willing to accept?
If you're pulling your hair out and your pants are
on fire right now, the chances are you probably have
(23:57):
too much exposure to the stock market. You know, understanding
the markets, understanding that you know it's just not a bull.
There is a bear. Embarish trends seem to be about
thirty percent of the time, the bull trends seem to
be about seventy percent of the time, and overall, well,
the times are basically you know, you're taking your emotion
(24:19):
out of it. You also have to follow a discipline
approach and stay the course because market volatility often results
long term, not short term, in the best long term
performance for you as the consumer of stocks and bonds.
It's been proven. There's all sorts of data, there's all
sorts of information. Don't try to time it. It's not timing.
(24:41):
It's time in the market, right.
Speaker 4 (24:46):
Yeah, in the long run, you know, it always has
gone up and it will continue, it will recover and
continue to go. It's just getting I think, you know,
if you see some good news and something comes out
where they're under negotiation or you know there's and it's
not with the smaller players in countries in the game.
I think if something were to come out with Canada, Mexico, China,
(25:08):
you know they're all in negotiations.
Speaker 3 (25:10):
And that negotiations are going on right now.
Speaker 4 (25:14):
Yeah, but if anything good news came out, you would
I think there would be to say, but I think
there would be, you know, a major turnaround.
Speaker 3 (25:22):
No, there's doubt, no doubt. All right, we got to
take a break here. That's a quick first half hour.
This is retirement ready talking about the markets and the
dynamics of investing for what we call an extended period
of time. Don't look at a day to day, look
at over five seven ten. You know, most of your
retirements today are going to last for decades, maybe two
(25:43):
three decades, So you've got to think long term purchasing power.
You can't let your emotions dictate the decisions that you're making.
So we're gonna talk a little bit more about that.
We go back for the second half hour, but again
we're live. You have any questions or comments, it's one
eight hundred talk WGY. That's one eight hundred and eight
to two five fifty nine forty nine. And uh, if you
(26:04):
would like to participate, one eight hundred talk w G
I one eight hundred eight two five fifty nine forty nine,
we'll be right back.
Speaker 2 (26:22):
Every time I look.
Speaker 7 (26:25):
Love, I see love. Man, money just can't buy bundle
from you.
Speaker 2 (26:42):
I truth. All right, that's a good one.
Speaker 3 (26:50):
That is a good song. I could sit and listen
to that instead of babbling here. It's about a Giana gibilin.
Speaker 8 (26:55):
Hey, John, how's Roy Orbison? Do I win?
Speaker 3 (27:00):
Uh? You won? Brother, I'll tell you why. Come over
and get the booby prize.
Speaker 8 (27:08):
Hey, listen, just that you guys, you guys are way
smarter than me when it comes to this stuff. But
with the tariffs, and the tariff war quote unquote, are
we or are we not the biggest dog in the
fight the amen? Okay, so what if we say, hey,
one hundred percent, you don't like that two and just
(27:31):
cripple them? What?
Speaker 3 (27:33):
What?
Speaker 8 (27:33):
Why is everybody running from, you know, Canada and Mexico?
Come on, man, it just seems stupid to me. And
I know what you're saying. If somebody burps the wrong way,
to market goes nuts and you got machines, you got
machines trading and so on and so forth. But if
(27:54):
we're going to go into war, I would match our
economy against anybody, and let's let's go with it. Let's
go right. Well, am I crazy?
Speaker 7 (28:03):
No?
Speaker 3 (28:04):
I agree with you one thousand percent. One thousand percent.
And you know, as far as I'm concerned, and it's
my own personal you know, a communist country such as
China that basically has a horrible record with human rights,
I could care less if I spend I could care
less if I spend one penny over there, I wouldn't
(28:25):
I wouldn't buy it. Absolutely, I wouldn't buy a toothpick
from those guys. So you know, just between you and
I'm with you. You know, I agree one thousand percent, And personally,
when I go out to buy stuff, I make an
effort not to see the sticker on the merchandise or
whatever I'm purchasing that says China. I'd rather pay a
(28:45):
little bit more personally myself because of their policies, what
they do to people, their population, et cetera.
Speaker 8 (28:54):
I mean, you were talking before about you know, the
South Korea. What's South Korea? About the size of Rhode Island. Yeah,
I mean, you know, and we're worried about South to
get it over.
Speaker 9 (29:05):
With, Well, this goes this goes back negotiate with Trump.
This goes back Trump. Yeah, this goes back to Yea,
this goes back to globalization. You know that, you know,
we're all one big society, We're one big you know, supermarket.
We all basically intertwined with one another. Problem is is that,
(29:27):
you know what, we're the ones that get that are
getting kicked in the can, and everybody else is kind
of dancing in the streets saying, you know, see, I
can't believe we're getting by. I can't believe that these
guys are doing this.
Speaker 3 (29:37):
And you know what Trump has been, you know, Obama's
talked about it, Pelosi's talked about it. All the previous
presents have talked about it, and nobody has done anything
about it. They've talked about it, but they've never implemented anything.
And Trump has said, this is it no more. We're
not going to do this anymore. We're not going to
be taken for you know, you know, a short ride.
(29:58):
And I support the guy, to be honest with you,
I don't like this volatility, but that's what we got.
Speaker 8 (30:07):
We've been everybody's atm We've been everybody's protection. We've been
everybody's saviors when they have a natural disaster. And I'm
not saying we shouldn't help the rest of the world,
but at the same time, they shouldn't be taking advantage
of us. And You're right, they're laughing all the way
(30:27):
to the bank. Yeah, and we're the ones here that
are like, oh my god, you know, the world's going
to end And it just seems crazy to me. And
again I'm not an economist by any strategy of the imagination,
but it seems to me that hey, look, you want
to fight, let's fight, or do you want to get along?
Make up your mind? So is my rant for today.
Speaker 3 (30:51):
Okay, you're part of our choir and you can participate
now on every weekend. So you're singing, you're singing to
the choir. Baby, there's no easy answer. There's no easy answer. Okay,
you know, China, Vietnam, Thailand, Taiwan, India, South Korea, European Union.
(31:18):
You know, here's the why are there's so many BMW's, Mercedes,
Benz Lexus, Nissans. You know, why are there so many
of those automobiles here in the United States and there's
not a lot of cars overseas, Chevys, Buicks, you know,
GMC trucks, whatever it may be. Because the headwind in
(31:42):
order for us to get our products over there, they're
basically kicking us in the teeth and it's going to
cost a hell of a lot more for an American product. So,
you know, you might not like the way the message
is coming out, but the bottom mine gets down to
is that we have thirty six trillion dollars a debt
(32:04):
that's with a T trillion, and the way they spend
money down there, we're going to be at forty or
fifty trillion dollars and a high percentage of our revenue
is going to go to pay debt, not to give
anybody quality of life, et cetera. So I don't have
(32:24):
to tell there's no one that's listening to this that
doesn't understand we need to make changes. You can call
it terroriffs, you can call it retaliatory, but bottom line
gets down to is that most of these countries are
reliant on the good old USA with their exports that
(32:47):
basically pay their bills.
Speaker 4 (32:51):
You agree, Yeah, I agree. I think you know. The
thing is that all these countries, all the ones that
you just listed, Yeah, they're tariffing everything out of coming
out of the United States. So why why can't it
happen the other way around? I think you know. The
way it's being delivered is that's the problem, right, It's
coming across is like an aggressive enough is enough kind
(33:12):
of approach to it, rather than a gradual, you know,
easing into it through negotiations. It's just all or nothing,
like here you go, this is what is going to happen,
and we're doing it right now.
Speaker 3 (33:22):
I don't like what happened in the last couple of days.
I got kicked in the teeth. Well, yeah, I mean
my brokerage account.
Speaker 5 (33:29):
You know.
Speaker 3 (33:29):
I don't even want to look at it because I
start tears come up well up. But the bottom I
gets down to is that I'm willing to go through
it in order for us to have a better society,
more economic growth for us the US economy, and put
our kids and our grandkids in a better position as
far as this ball and chain we're putting around their neck,
(33:50):
as far as the debt service that they're going to
pay off because we didn't have the you know what,
in order to basically do what needs to get done,
we need to grow a set. That's the bottom line.
We've got to put ourselves in a position where we say,
you know what, here's the line in the sand, no more.
And you know, they can talk about Musk and trying
(34:13):
to to destroy him, kill his business. You know, I
think it's horrible what they're doing to him personally, that's
my personal feeling. You can disagree with somebody without you know,
basically saying that you want to kill him and all
the other things. But the bottom line gets down to
is that he is unearthing corruption, a multitude of money
(34:35):
that's going out the door, that's basically paying for what
starts with a sea starts with a sea right crap,
A bunch of nonsets, right, that's what it is. It's
a bunch of nonsense. And so the thing is is
that it's bad enough that we're in the society that
we're in today. We've got vets. You know, I watched
(34:58):
these things on TV, these wounded warriors and tee to
tea tunnel to towers, these individuals that have made the
ultimate sacrifice for this nation. Right, that's where the money
should be going for our vets. That's where it should
be going. For those guys to even have to run
a commercial because they need help or assistance, I think
(35:20):
it is pathetic. So that's my own personal feeling. So
you know, everybody's worried about the R word again, recession.
I don't think we're going to have a downturn. I
think we might chug along here and might have a
little bit of a slow down. But remember, they need us.
(35:42):
Those ships that are loaded with all those container ships
that are coming from China to the United States. Say stop, then,
see just say stop, don't send them, we don't need them.
And you'll see how quick they come to the table
and say, yes, we'll do a deal. We'll do a deal.
Speaker 4 (36:01):
Yeah, I mean, I think the gradual approach and through
you know, he already said a lot of the countries
have already come out and are open to negotiations.
Speaker 3 (36:10):
Uh.
Speaker 4 (36:11):
So we'll see, hopefully next week some good news comes
out in you know, where things kind of start slowing
down and they don't just keep doubling down on these
tariffs over and over again and everything will kind of
come to a happy ending.
Speaker 3 (36:26):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (36:26):
But yeah, I totally agree with the uh the Elon
Musk thing. I mean, it's pretty it should it should
be pretty bipartisan, you know, him calling out and saying
the corruption that's in government and how much spending went
to just nothing really like nothing that was improving society
(36:48):
in general. So it's like, I don't I don't see
how anyone could look at him and what he's doing.
Speaker 3 (36:53):
Your ag is a hero the year ago, people that
are I have in Tesla's he was a hero. Now
he's a zero because he's unearthing all of this waste, fraud, corruption.
I mean, you know, it's like he said, he made
a statement, how did these people go to Washington basically
(37:17):
don't have two plug nickels in their pocket and by
the time they come out, they're multimillionaires. Yeah, on the
salaries of congressmans. Yeah, the net worth is pretty staggering
to see. The stock return, Yeah, percentages are pretty staggering
to see. It doesn't necessarily make sense. You know, they
say no insider trading. It seems like, you know, that
(37:41):
doesn't necessarily always happen. But bottom mine it is this.
I'll tell you what we'll get. We'll get there, We'll
get there were our target is in front of us.
As far as ultimately what needs to get done. You
know what, I don't care how they do it, how
they slice it, how they dice it, terriffs, no tear.
We've got to basically address this debt that we have
(38:03):
as a nation, because if we don't, everybody knows what
it's what the end result is cataclismic. That's the word
that they use, cataclismic consequences. We'll be right back after
this message. Your partner for Success, David Kopik, heir WG
Wise Retirement Planning specialists, the Retirement Planning Group. We understand
that retirees face many important decisions that can affect their
(38:26):
long term financial success. Some of these decisions revolve around
making investments that will help create a hedge against outliving
their assets, the impact of inflation, taxation, and rising health
care couests. Most of our clients like the time, the desire,
or the experience to manage their own investment portfolios. We
(38:47):
consider it to be an honor and a privilege to
help our clients make sound investment decisions that will contribute
to a secure financial future for them. Because over ninety
percent of our clients or retirees with similar concerns, we
are in the best position to approach such challenges with
experience and skill. Give us a call today at five
(39:07):
one eight, five eight zero one nine one nine five
one eight five eight zero one nine one nine or
RPG retire on the web. Will you run out of
money in retirement where your investments provide income for possibly decades?
How do you navigate the two greatest risk in retirement,
sequence of returns in longevity at the Retirement Planning Group.
Our Bucket of Money approach addresses these concerns and we
(39:29):
offer a complimentary consultation to discuss this with you. Call
our office today for a free complimentary consultation to develop
your own personal retirement income distribution plan at five pine
eight five eight zero one nine one nine. That's five
win eight five eat zero one nine one.
Speaker 2 (39:44):
Nine one through a party in account in jail lands,
John John began to swing son I hadn't.
Speaker 3 (40:00):
Locked down jail Patsy.
Speaker 2 (40:05):
And almost tail around spying them.
Speaker 1 (40:14):
I've been playing as a saxophone, little Joey blowing on
the side, drombone, drama, blowing alonormo, crash boom bank, whole.
Speaker 2 (40:23):
Rhythm, section one of the Purple Game.
Speaker 3 (40:26):
All right there, just hanging out here and latham and dancing.
You know, folks, I've been doing it now for forty
three years. This is my forty third year. I started
nineteen eighty two in the financial services industry. This too
(40:49):
show pass. Okay, this two show pass. You know, don't
try to get to you know, aggressive with your portfolio.
Stay within your lane, monitor it, make sure that you're navigating.
But here here's the key that you want to understand.
It's one of the things that we talk about all
(41:09):
the time when people commend to work with us, is
that you need to understand the buckets of money approach.
That's what we use. We use what we call the
buckets of money, and we always have what a cash position, Yeah,
bucket one. So the buckets of money approached. You know,
there's three buckets that we emphasize. The first bucket being cash,
(41:30):
so that's any type of cash or cash alternative like
a money market fund, so.
Speaker 4 (41:36):
Treasury short term treasury, short term treasuries, yep. And then
accounting for you know, dividends that are going to be
kicked into that bucket one. So that leads us to
bucket two, which is, you know, income producing assets that
are filling bucket one. These being bond positions, uh, you know,
treasuries or equity positions that act like a bond that
are paying a dividend. Myga's, m yga's. You know, these
(41:58):
are all bucket two items. And then bucket three is
your growth factor. Those are going to be your equity positions.
That's you know, your your sleeve of your portfolio that
you're trying to shoot for the moon, hit all the
growth you can, you know, whether that's you know, technology
funds or SMP five hundred like funds, whether it's an
ETF mutual fund. To get the growth factor in there.
(42:23):
And that's important because think about it, you close your eyes.
I know my wife and I were talking just recently.
We're looking at some of the numbers when we first
moved into our house and what we were paying at taxes,
what the cost of goods and services were.
Speaker 3 (42:38):
What a cost for gasoline? When I moved into my house,
the costs of gasoline and half moon was eighty nine
cents a gallon. Eighty nine cents a gallon? What is
it now? Three dollars in change, So everything goes up.
So you've got to have purchasing power. Think about healthcare.
What does healthcare cost you today? That's you know, that
would blow your eyeballs out of your head. So you've
(43:00):
got to make sure that you've got your assets allocated properly.
And you can't have your knees knocking when you have
market volatility, because you need growth in your portfolio. Because
if you're going to have a twenty or thirty year
window for your retirement, which is not going to be
uncommon in the years to come. O earldest client has
passed away. He was one hundred and two years old,
(43:21):
So you're going to live a hell of a lot
longer than you think. And the bottom line is is
that you've got to make sure that you understand with
that l word longevity comes to our word risk. You've
got to have growth in your portfolio.
Speaker 4 (43:35):
Yeah, you need that long term growth, but you know
you also need the other side of it is the
income producing assets for times like these that you can
pull from and you're not necessarily having to sell out
of your growth while the market's down. So having that
bucket two filling into bucket one where you have that
nest egg of cash collecting these dividends and interestparing assets,
(43:58):
whether it's you know, ETFs, mutual funds paying in the
bucket one. You know, being able to pull from that
during times like this and having cash on hand is important.
Speaker 3 (44:10):
The other thing is too, is that you know, the
buzzword on Wall Street. Now there's always buzzwords. There's always
you know, cocktail party talk, private equity, you know all
these different types of investments which we call alternative investments.
Just buyer beware, Okay, understand that these are typically investments
for high net worth people, people that have substantial assets.
(44:35):
They act as a heads to the portfolio. But believe me,
you know, not all of these types of investments work out.
The big thing is liquidity. You don't necessarily get your
money when you want the money. You get the money
when they pay it to you. And I just watched
a presentation on one the other day and they basically
said if things don't work out, you could literally take months,
if not years, for you to basically get your money back.
(44:58):
If you get it back.
Speaker 4 (45:00):
Yeah, there's there's other options too in that field where
they're starting to the private space is becoming less and
less private. It's becoming more accessible to the average joe.
So we see mutual funds come across the table where
it's in the private market. You know, there's sectors that
you can hit now, but the look there is liquidity issues,
(45:20):
so you cannot really go and grab the money at
your convenience if you need it. You know, it's more
of like a carve out taking five ten percent of
your portfolio and putting in these alternative funds to try
and grab you know, it's a separate sector of the
market and a lot of them that we're seeing or
quarterly liquidity, so you can grab it four times a
(45:42):
year if you need it.
Speaker 3 (45:44):
Maybe not all of it though, certain percentage you can take.
But you know, here's here's the the nine to one one,
here's the shot over the bow. With Drawing money in
a declining portfolio without a doubt is a sure fireway
to accelerate the depletion of that account. So make sure
(46:05):
when we work with individuals, we build what we call
baseline income. Sounds kind of corny, okay, but we take
our e money software package and we put it into
the package and we run if they have a pension,
solid security benefits, what we anticipate that we can take
off the portfolios on an annual basis, and it gives
us a number, and it gives us a success rate
(46:27):
as far as what is the actual percentage ninety god
is it? Does it actually go to one hundred percent?
Speaker 4 (46:34):
Yeah, yeah, you can go. It'll build out. So it
gives you like a growth rate, inflation rate. All the
assets under management, you know, any type, if they're still working,
you know, current contributing assets to their plans, you know,
whatever they're contributing on a monthly basis, what their employer
is putting in. You know, there's a lot of factors
that go into it, even just the basic projection that
(46:57):
they have access to on their website. But the we
always like to underestimate for growth rate and overestimate for
inflation rate because we're trying to give people a baseline
on what they can feel comfortable with in retirement. So
it's not we're not trying to show people growth rates
of you know, eight, nine, ten percent, something that is
pretty hard to withstand over a long period of time,
(47:18):
which we run with six and three six and three
or seven and three. Yeah, you know, the six percent growth,
three percent inflation. Yeah, if we know they're a more
conservative investor, it's going to be like a six and
three look on it. And if they want to start
taking income like immediately, it's a six and three and
then it'll spit out, you know, like an annual comfortable
(47:42):
annual spend level for them that between their social security,
if they have a pension, it's going to you know,
kick out some number for them that they can at
least feel comfortable with. We can feel comfortable with saying,
you know, based on this software system, this is giving
you a range on what is a comfort spend level
for you.
Speaker 3 (48:02):
Yeah. And the key to that too, of course, is
that as unnerving as these market drops are, you got
to have a little bit of a perspective. I hate
you know, I hate to say this, but the reality
is a high quality you know, blue chip blue bond portfolio,
diversified long term has never gone down. Okay, you look
(48:25):
over in the next last five, seven, ten years. So
the thing is is that you're in this is really
a point in time. That's how you gotta look at it.
What we call a point in time. And you know,
there's a lot of times when we sit down because
a guy that might get into the portfolio in the
beginning of this year versus a guy that gets into
the portfolio let's say maya this year, they're gonna have
(48:45):
a whole different net return on their portfolio as of
December thirty first of twenty twenty five. You know, some
of them are gonna be dancing in the street and
some might say, you know, it was an average year.
It was a horrible year. So just realize is that
you know, your point of entry into your retirement years,
especially your retirement years, is critical that you understand that
(49:09):
you build that cash position, that bucket one before you
walk out the door.
Speaker 4 (49:14):
Yeah, you know, point of entry is is obviously huge.
A lot of people like you said, who came in
to the office in January of this year and invested
their money or you know, not too happy. But the
people that are coming in now have a lot better
of an opportunity as far as point of entry. But
(49:34):
and that's the other thing too. The bond market really
hasn't come back from the twenty twenty two drop in
the bond market. So it's it's an opportunity that we've
kept our eyes on just to see this area in
the market. You know, the bonds with where interest rates
are at right now haven't really come back to their
(49:54):
where they were pre twenty twenty two. So as far
as like a IVY or look back on the bond market,
they are still down. It's just a matter of time.
Speaker 5 (50:05):
You know.
Speaker 4 (50:05):
Once these rates start getting cut, the underlying bond positions
within these mutual funds should appreciate and go.
Speaker 3 (50:11):
No, but you didn't have any coupon back then. There
was no interest rate, right, So the thing is is
that you had very little, if any capital appreciation. You
just had the coupon, and as interest rates went up,
the actual nav of the portfolios went down because of
the higher interest rates. So you know, I know that
there's going to be some anxiety. Like I said earlier
this morning we were on the very first show, just
(50:33):
be aware that there was probably a lot of forced
selling on Friday, and there'll probably be a lot of
force selling on Monday. You know, there's a thing out
there called margin margin accounts, and you know, when the
bell rings, they don't have an option. They have to
sell the positions because they have to cover the margin call.
(50:55):
So I would not be surprised that Monday, when we
get up and get going here in the markets, that
you're probably gonna see some pressure simply because of margin
calls that whether they want to sell or not, they're
going to have to sell at the open, right. Yeah.
Speaker 4 (51:11):
Yeah, you know a lot of these margin calls, a
lot of these companies that have kind of gotten kicked
in the teeth over the last month, you know, potentially
next week. That's what we're kind of keeping our eyes on.
Is it going to continue to sell off at least
in the beginning of the week it's set up to
you know, no real great news has come out since then.
Speaker 3 (51:31):
But well, uh, well he made a stake today too
that you know, hang tough. Yeah, that was his response
on Truth Central. So the thing is is that we'll
say hopefully you know, they'll be more scuttle, but up
there'll be more information that will be coming out. But
you know, as I said, this too shall pass. Sit tight.
My feeling is is that they need us more than
(51:51):
we need them. And I know that you know, everybody's
going to be talking about you know, China, China, China,
but it's more than just China. It's basically we're trying
to get ourselves back where our balance sheet for our
ability to pair debt and do all the things that
we need to do for the social programs are going
to be able to be in existence for an extended
(52:14):
period of time, because all we hear about is when
Social Security is going to go broke, and Medicare and
all the other programs that a lot of people are
extremely relying on. So I know these are stressful times,
but like anything else, this two shall pass. So we'll
see you next week for another Retirement Ready show. I'm
(52:34):
Dave Kopek with my son Christopher. We'll see you next week.
Speaker 1 (52:39):
Thank you for listening to Retirement Ready hosted by Dave Kopec.
If you would like to talk with Dave or someone
at the Retirement Planning Group called five one eight, five
eight zero one nine one nine. That's five one eight,
five eight zero one nine one nine during business hours
or visit RPG retire dot com. The Retirement Planning Group
has five convenient offices located in Albany, Malta, Glens Falls, Pontiata,
(53:04):
and Syracuse. Tune in again next week at noon for
Retirement Planning Strategies with David Kopek, or Saturdays at seven
am for the Retirement Planning Show.
Speaker 4 (53:15):
The information or services discussed on this shows for informational
purposes only and is not intended to be personal financial advice.
Speaker 3 (53:21):
The investments and services offered by US may not be
suitable for all investors. If you have any doubts as
to the merits of an investment, you should seek advice
from an independent financial advisor.
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