Rockets grades: Evaluating Houston’s 6-3 start to the season

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:03):
Rockets Fans, Welcome to the Rockets Launch Pod, an exclusive
podcast from the home of the Rockets, Sports Talk seven
ninety Red Nation. Get Ready, Ready, Get Ready. The Rockets
Launch Pod starts now. Welcome aboard.

Speaker 2 (00:48):
Benju bos here, Paolo Alves there, Welcome back to the
Rockets Launch Pod, presented by Clutch Fans and with support
from Sports Talk seven ninety, official flagship radio station of
your Houston Rockets. It's now Tuesday, the eleventh of November.
Happy Veterans Day, by the way, But from an NBA perspective,
that means we are exactly three weeks into the new season.

(01:08):
The Rockets are off to a six and three start.
They've won six of their last seven games overall, and
they've now got this three day hiatus and a pretty
long gap between that thrilling win that we saw on
Sunday afternoon in Milwaukee and then their next game on
Wednesday night versus the Washington Wizards. That game kicks off
a three game homestand at Toyota Center in downtown Houston.

(01:30):
And then if you want to hear about that Bucks
game in particular, just hit up our archives. We had
a postgame show right after with Dave Hardesty of Clutch Fans,
which we put on our feeds at Brockets Launch pot
as well as on the Clutch Fans YouTube channel. For
the video version. For this show, we're going to talk
a little bit more big picture and we're actually going
to be doing player and coach grades for both ima
Udoka and each of the nine players who consistently plays

(01:54):
for the Rockets. Those nine, of course are the four
in Trench starters with Kevin Durant, All pri In Shongoon
and Men Thompson and jaw Bary Smith Junior, as well
as the other five which are typically a combination of
Joshua Kogi, Tary Eason, Stephen Adams, Reed Shepherd, and Clint Cappella.
So the reason we're doing this, in addition to having
a couple of off days in a row, we're actually

(02:15):
now more than ten percent of the way into the
season nine out of eighty two. So while I know
everything still feels new and in the grand scheme it is,
the sample is still relatively small. At the same time,
it's also not nothing. We're getting to a point where
I think we can at least make some big picture
of observations or at least comment on the trend lines. Now,

(02:37):
full disclosure before we start. All of these grades are
relative to realistic expectations for each player, and what I
mean by that is, if you grate Joshua coogy Anda
and Kevin Zurana B or Clint Capella Ina at all
for in Shinangoon to be No, it doesn't mean you're
saying that Kogi is better than KD or the Capella
is better than Shangoon, and those grades are strictly hypotheticals.

(02:57):
It's just saying relative to expectations for each player going
into the year and the formula for what the Rockets
need from these guys to potentially contend for a title
this season, which we all know is the goal. And
as far as that formula, we're not starting from scratch. Obviously,
we knew quite a bit about all of these guys
prior to that October twenty first opener three weeks ago

(03:18):
in Oklahoma City. And it would also be a pretty
boring pod if we just went through the roster and
graded based on each player's overall ability, because again, we
pretty much already knew that, and there's no reason to
wildly overreact to a sample of less than ten games.
So this exercise is just taking the temperature of where
we're at now, what trends we're starting to see relative
to expectations, that sort of stuff. So I'm going to

(03:40):
start with the Imadoka because i think going through the
overall team framework, which it makes sense to do with EMY,
will also help guide the discussions we have later on
for some of the individual players. And as far as
Emay's performance, I think you've got to start by looking
at the overall numbers and the metrics. They're six and
three right now, which is a fifty five win pace.
That's better than last year, and they were fifty two

(04:02):
and thirty number two in the West. Strength of schedule
to date is number six in the MBA according to ESPN.
That's as of our recording time on Monday night. And notably,
their remaining strength of schedule is number twenty three, second
easiest in the West. So that six and three pace,
winning two out of every three, they actually have an
easier schedule moving forward the rest of the year. And

(04:23):
that's before you consider bringing back door Anthony Smith, continuing
to integrate Kevin Durant, all that good stuff. You look
at the net ratings and some of the advanced metrics.
Number three overall, number one on offense, number eight on defense.
So if anything, that six and three might be a
little bit soft, and it could be a product of
the schedule all relatively close to good teams. Two on

(04:44):
the road to Oklahoma City and San Antonio and one
at home to Detroit that home opener the first week
of the season. So if anything, I would argue that
the six and three start might be underselling them a
little bit when you look at the productivity under the hood.
And so with that in mind, I would give em
Udoka an anus now not giving him an AAR and
a plus because there are some some knit picks you

(05:06):
can point out at the defense to this point, it's
not quite as good as last year, dropped from number
five to number eight. You can question if they're running
too much zone. You can on offense talk about the turnovers,
although I think some of that is personnel since they
don't have Freddan Fleet. I think a lot of defenses
personnel as well. But if you want to point to

(05:26):
e May being a defensive coach, I suppose you can.
It is fair to note the downturn regardless of the reason.
The one criticism that I think is fair, and it's
a it's a small criticism when you look at overall
and the good clearly outweighing the bad. But the three
point math. They rank number one in the NBA in
three point accuracy and they are dead last in three

(05:47):
point attempts. Now, the good news against Milwaukee, it was
a little bit closer to parody. I think they put
up twenty six. The Bucks put up twenty nine. But
in these games where like the San Antonio one, where
you're putting up about thirty and the other team is
putting up forty five, that makes it really tough from
a math perspective. So I think they've got to get
better at putting up more threes at volume. I suspect
Ema already knows that getting back another shooter in doory

(06:10):
Anfony Smith, who was at forty one percent last year,
that would certainly help. But it's a again, on a
team that's very good overall, it is a fair nit pick.
And so to this point, that and the fact that
they're on a fifty five win pace as opposed to
sixty plus, that's enough for me to give e may
An a minus rather than an A or an A plus.

(06:31):
But overall, like you can't argue with the results, given
the Dorian Anthony Smith injury, given the loss of Freden
Fleet before training camp, the integration of Kevin Durant. Anyone
who says they wouldn't take six and three with these
under the hood metrics, I don't think it's being realistic.
So I think overall you have to be pleased with
the job the Rockets are doing in the big picture,

(06:51):
the macro, which is what a head coach is charged
with managing. And then in contrast to last year, I
think one other thing we should note Emay is getting
this done while still developing the young guys. You're still
getting a ton of on ball wraps and opportunities for
a Men Thompson and Reed Shepherd. So it's in contrast
to last year where by this point they were already
sort of phasing out Read Shepherd and giving more minutes

(07:13):
to Aaron Holliday. And we've talked about why last year
the team had a much smaller margin for error. They
had to squeeze out every margin to get to fifty
two wins, and so they couldn't air on the side
of playing a high variance prospect like Reed Shepherd. Well,
this year they are and they're being rewarded. The last
two games against the Spurs and the Bucks read was
absolutely fantastic. He's grown by leaps and bounds since the

(07:35):
first week of the year. So in contrast to last year,
where he may leaned on the steady veteran hand of
an Aaron Holliday, this year he's getting the results that
clearly the Rockets want as a contender, while also giving
responsibilities to young guys who are still getting better, especially
so in the case of Reed Shepherd. So both in
terms of the big picture winning games, which with the

(07:56):
thirty seven year old Kevin Durant is certainly important, but
also you know, the overall goal of winning games while
developing your young talent. I think so far em is
striking the right balance. He's he's helping this team succeed
on multiple fronts, and so because of that, I can't
justify anything lower than a grade in the a's. I'll

(08:16):
give him an A minus because of the nth discrepancy,
but for me, anything lower than that is just not
warranted based on the results. What's your grade for em
Udoka and the overall Rockets performance through nine.

Speaker 3 (08:27):
Games, I don't think so my grade for Emay's perform,
for the Rockets performance and Migrate for email are not
going to match. Okay, And I'll explain it a little
bit in a bit, and it's probably gonna sound pretty darring.
But as far as how the Rockets left performed, I'm
gonna give it a B. As far as how ema

(08:49):
Is performed, I'm gonna give it a C. And it's
might yeah, it might sound a bit harsh emy especially
but as I said, it's relatives to expectations and when
we when we look at the record and they expected
and what you did or you were expected to win
games you were expected to lose.

Speaker 2 (09:06):
I think the.

Speaker 3 (09:06):
Rockets are have basically lost every game that I expected
to be close to a fifty to fifty before the
season started. Now since then we've found out that the
Putts that were better team than I expected them to be. Right,
But I can't give too good of a grade when
even though the metrics look good, the records it's not

(09:29):
a bad record at all, still a good record, but
it's basically you've lost all to me was would be
fifty to fifty then if one of the games that
you should have won you beside the Bucks one, but
once again compared to expectations pre season. And then it's
also about while I do think that the offense is
impressive and I was not expecting the offers to be
this good, I'm not sure how much of that you

(09:51):
can credit to you though, look compared to just having
you know, just leaps from everybody on everybody else. And yes,
the Rockets do scheme themselves open for you often, and
they and they do do do a good job of
flavors being up n K D into opportunities for the
other guys. And there's a lot of more crisp passing
and a lot more fundamental basketball that's going a lot better.

(10:11):
Some of that's also the hot shooting. Will see all
that develops, But I do kind of the reason my
my Rockets create and my email though get great, are
different is mostly because of who I who I credit
the offensive. You know, I guess well up to I
credited more to the players than to do the staff.

(10:33):
That may be unfair, but notes just because of that.
It's also because as more basically every platform, the defense
is not full club to part and I know it
rates as a top ten defense, right, But it's just
night and day from what we saw last season and
now when what I expected this team to be was
team that was, you know, really good defensively that now
got a closer so still scraggy team that you know,

(10:57):
Hector came closer than the strictly whatever. They would be
able to get stops and kV would be prolific enough
of a score that with all the stuffs that we got,
we would win games. And and I still believe that
that's probably the recipe for success with this team down
the line, and I do believe that will eventually get there.
But since I do believe that you will eventually get there,
I need to give space in my grade for it

(11:18):
to get better for Emay as that improvement happens, which
I think it will. If I gave emay and they
already and then I'll be first got a lot better,
then I would have no space for him to get
better to make my grade better either, right, So yeah,
it's mostly crediting the offense a little bit more to
the players than twing me himself, and then just thinking

(11:38):
that I think this team has a long ways to go.
Defensively and then as I still believe what I said
hostpot that they're not maximizing right now. There are chances
of winning every single day, and that's okay. But if
I give to hybridrid now, how am I gonna weave
space for when they do maximize those things and those
schemes and the and the guy they had in the rosation.
How I'm gonna give them higher red if I already

(11:59):
started to high that makes sense.

Speaker 2 (12:01):
No, that's fair enough for me and more generous because
I put a lot of weight on taking care of
business and taking care of business by large margins. The
Dallas game excluded. I think you wanted that signature win,
and I would argue they got it yesterday against Milwaukee.
But to your point on preseason expectations, I guess that's fair.

(12:22):
And it is in the relatively recent aftermath of their
most disappointing showing, which was that game in San Antonio
where starting at about the three minute mark of the
second quarter, they were severely outplayed. So I can understand it.
It's just for me when I look at all the
moving parts, and you know, I try and adjust for

(12:43):
the absences, the integration, the metrics that show how they've
played on the balance. I think they're going to be fine.
That some of that is probably me projecting, And so
if you split hard enough, and if you want to,
as you said, leave room for further bumps, and you
have high expectations for this team which are warranted, then
I guess I can see where you're coming from. Let's

(13:04):
move on to players, because I think there's potential for
a lot of variants there and little alternate who picks
the player. We're not going to go in any specific order.
I'm going to go with the guy who I might
have one of my lower grades sport, just to sort
of mix it up and be in contrast to the
relatively rosy grade I gave to Imo Udoka. I'm going

(13:26):
to start with the men Thompson, and I'm going to
give him a C plus. I can't give him any
lower than that because he is third in net rating
on the team. Like he's clearly still contributing to winning,
but relative to expectations, the overall shooting is down, the
three point shooting is down, the true shooting is down
by a decent debt. The defensive metrics aren't what they

(13:49):
were a year ago when he was All Defensive first team,
and yeah, I know, small sample, he's still contributing to winning.
But for a player that a lot of us looked
at before the year and said this could be the
third wheel of a big three, he hasn't been consistently
anywhere near the level of Kevin Duran are all pringch
and done, and those were All Stars last year. So

(14:10):
not saying that he should be quite at that tier,
but the gap between them is a little bit wider
than I think we wanted to think, and perhaps even
the Rockets wanted to think, given how highly they view
a man internally, and he is just twenty two years old.
We're talking about the first nine games of year three,
and there are some extenuating circumstances. The opener against the
Thunder is defense. I thought looked really good against SGA

(14:31):
the first three quarters, and then he had the calf cramps.
Perhaps that's been a lingering factor. He's gotten in foul
trouble and had a rough whistle in a couple of games.
He's had the added responsibility of being the point guard.
Now his assist have risen a little bit, but his
turnovers have jumped by about the same proportion, so I
don't necessarily give him a bump for that, but you
can argue that since he's the point guard, does that,

(14:52):
you know, compromise him a little bit because it takes
more choice to bring the ball up the floor, so
he can't defend as aggressively. He doesn't have many all
fall opportunities. I mean maybe, I guess you can argue that,
But at the end of the day, the production just
isn't to this point what it was last season, so
at least in terms of the efficiency. Now we've seen

(15:12):
it in flashes. He was very good, in my opinion,
the best player on the floor, and that when they
had at Memphis last week by fifteen plus points, So
it's not as if there aren't positives. The first half
against the MAVs the game before that, he was really good.
He has the potential to feast off the gravity of
Kevin Durant and allprin Shangoon, So there's a path for

(15:34):
him to get a lot better in the near future.
I hope he does. My guess is that it's a
combination of you know, he's adjusting to being the starting
point guard for the first time. He's dealt with calf
cramps from time to time. Like, there's just a lot
of little things that have happened, and he's played a
lot of really physical long shot blockers Daniel Gafford, Victor

(15:54):
Winmbin Yama, the combination of Giannis and Mals Turner with Milwaukee,
and so that's made him at times reluctant to drive
all the way to the rim. I think it's sort
of a perfect storm of circumstances. But regardless of the
reason you want to ascribe it to, I think it's
fair to say that a man has not been as
good as we had hoped, and as time progresses, I

(16:15):
think he will be. I think, you know, as Reid
continues to improve, If Reid gets more minutes at point guard,
then perhaps unlocking more of a men as an offball
guy will play into it. This is not me panicking
on a men. I'm still very bullish on him. All
I'm saying is that for a guy that we personally
and the team internally had very high expectations of going

(16:36):
into this year, the start has been it hasn't been bad,
but it's just been Okay, It's not bad. He's still
contributing to winning he's a third best in net rating,
but it hasn't been great either, So I'm at C
plus for a men Thompson Pello, what's your grade for him? Oh?

Speaker 3 (16:58):
No, man, I'm actually going to be a little bit
more optimistic and not really optimistic, but I'll give them
like a rosier grade than you are, I think going
into the season. Well, first of all, my grade, I'm
gonna give them a D minus going into the season.
I actually didn't have expectations as high for a minute
because I did think that the ceiling was better. He
could be really, really good. But at the same time,

(17:21):
I know when we've seen, especially throughout this reval, we've
seen how hard it is for people to take on
big usage when they're really young and still remain you know,
somewhat efficient and not be really really turnover pro and
stuff like that. So my expectations were measured already. And
then at the same time it's that tom mind with Okay,

(17:41):
seeing how this team plays, I no longer think that
a man needs to be a Russell Westbrook type for
this team to be good offensively. I think we have
a really good balance calling on where we have Katie
and shign As the shot creators and the men doesn't
really need to do that much off the dribble. And

(18:02):
what is going to need to need to do going forward,
I think he's going to be more connective, pathing and
more using as a striticism combined with is like you
to be in place to put himself in positions to
be a play finisher, whether cutting, dunger spot stuff like
that and just being kind of a pressure evolve or
for saying good and haiti in which these guys are

(18:24):
getting doubled. Right, the ball is going to define himself
to someone and more likely than not, the man is
not going to be the guy sitting in the courtner.
He's going to be the guy being the outlet for
that pressure that has to make that quick, snappy decision
to capitalize on that double and not allow the defense
to look up right then and continue that. That's what
I think the man is going to need to be
as we go for the next of the season. That

(18:45):
was some point guard duties and some level of you know,
if I have a mismatch and and I'm going to ye,
I'm going to be able to punish it. I do
think he will be able to. I'm actually not that low,
I guess, or or middling in the man's grade. There
are some things that bother me, especially his three throw percentage,
Like I don't know why because there's games, but he'll

(19:06):
go six for six and the free throws all look good,
like he doesn't. Him shooting the free throws doesn't look
like someone who should have as level percentage as he does.
Like there's some signs where his free throws just look automatic,
and I think when he misses, it's a lot to
do with either being fired out, being banked up from
being fouled, or being playing playing physical difference down on

(19:27):
the other end, it's like just just off rhythm rather
than him you know, actually not being a good three
through sure, I think, and if you get if you
gave a man one hundred tries of three throws in
practice right now, I think, or not really in practice,
but you know, still game setting, right, but he's not
exhausted while shooting them. I think he would probably make
eighty percent plus because I think he's really consistent.

Speaker 2 (19:50):
You know.

Speaker 3 (19:50):
The problem is sometimes it looks like he's like kind
of banked up from his style of play, and it
kind of throws off either his rhythm or like he's
breathing seems off. It's seems like something is off. It's
not necessarily and being bad of through shooting. That's one
of the things that's in bothering me. The other thing
that's been bothering me is that because we've given him
more users offensively, it really feels like his defense is

(20:11):
not as much of a game changer as it was
last season. I'm not saying he's playing bad defense. It
just feels like there's some uncharacteristic mistakes and some overshooting,
our clows out and stuff like that. I'm not really
used to am I making those mistakes, and less of
the highlight plays of him coming off weekside at him
facting more than one play in the same possession in

(20:33):
Saint Ride. Sometimes I feel like that that's the King
a step back. But at the same time, I do
think that it's not easy for a player to go
from fourteen points per game to seventeen point six points
per game, and this is considering the two on the
roaming games he's had the last two games. Right before that,
he was close to eighteen point five or something like that.
Like that's a massive jump. It may not seem like

(20:54):
a lot, but you go and look historically for the
guy that already averaged fourteen points per game. Unless you
a scoring guard, it's really hard to take a lead
that bit, I guess without being kind of labeled as
a scorer, which a man really isn't. And then beyond that,
I think a lot of people are you know, yes,
he's had some beat turnovers, and sometimes they kind of come,
you know, one after the other, and it can get frustrating,

(21:17):
and they are all bonne clip in the same games.
He's still everything in five point three assists to put
two point seven turnovers. It's not why it's a two
two one turnover ratio, but it's a better turnover than
he had a last season. He's only everything, you know,
points several turnovers more than he did last season, and
he's everything one and a half assists more. And I
do think that these this that line is also deflated,

(21:40):
I guess from the last keuple of game where it
was rougher than the game putfore back. So I do
think some people not saying that's you, but a lot
of people are kind of putting it all on a
man when and this is a discussion that we've had
and all continue to have throughout the season. I really
don't think the problem is the offense, and you know,
even even with the turnovers, and I do I do

(22:03):
understand that turnovers make it harder to play defense. But
I do think that the problem, if there is one
for brooming edges here, I don't think the problems and
opens at all. I think the problem is more so
on defense. And I can live with the man's turnovers
considering the reps that he's getting and he's going to
get better as the season goes along, more so than
I can live with kind of the defensive and sometimes

(22:25):
rebounding effort that we've had in the last few games.
So I don't put our short gun means I guess
I don't know. There's not really hard of them on
the men as much as some other people do. And
so be minus seemed like a fair great to me,
moving on from a man who was your first time,
I'm gonna you know, just what's swift The expression just

(22:46):
take the bull by the horns and are gonna go
straight to open and saying good I'll be to me
as having an awesome season. I think there's it's not
necessarily because he's been overly efficient. That he's sitting at
something like fifty eight percent through shooting, which is better
than last season, but still not that great for a center,
and it's good. It's how great he's still shooting forty

(23:06):
nine percent from the field. I know he's taking more threes,
but I do think on twos that he's had some
rough games. But all in all, my great for him
is an A, not necessarily because of his overall play,
which I do think has been awesome. I think that
would be a BEE. It's an A because I did
not expect and I know I saw it at EuroBasket,
but I did not expect the shooting to be real.

(23:26):
And the shooting is very much true at this point,
and so the touch is back, but that's not that's
something that I already expected, so I can't predict it
too much. But it just feels like like he's arrived,
like he's a bona fide star now, like there's nothing
you can say, there's no kind of holes in this game.
I know he's not the best of festive center, but
he's still good and he's now finishing at the rim.

(23:47):
His mid rine looks a lot better, especially down the stretch.
He's getting through to him at will. I know, I
know some of that is because it's because he's playing
with Katie and there's more space. But he's gone up
to what I think it's over seven assists a game. Yeah,
he's at seven point three assists a game, and I
would now be surprised if that went up. He's sitting
at twenty three points per game, and I would not

(24:09):
be surprised if that went up as well. For reference,
his highest scoring season was twenty one up to this point,
so he's two points over is what his career high is,
and I still think that he's going to score more.
I do think that there's been just some games where
like it does not feel like how Frenchingun is taking over,
like high usage type of type of role. He is key,

(24:32):
and he when he gets the ball, he is really effective.
But it hasn't felt like, Okay, we're squeezing as much
out of out of Shang Mun as we can. I
think you should have a playoff series right now. Hingun
would be getting the ball off more than he's been
getting up to this point. So I do think that
there's marketing for progression. There, not necessarily from him getting better,
but just from the game point eventually shifting as as

(24:52):
games become more and more important. So from King Gun's part,
like thirty nine percent from three on, not not meaning
was amount of threes, I think he's at what three. Yeah,
shooting three threes a game is a massive improvement, completely
changes the dynamic of the team offensively, gives them a
lot more space when he's riding in and docking closeouts.
And then you know, there's been an increase of marked

(25:15):
increase in assists that has come with more turnovers. But
I do think that those thwos overs will come down
as well. I don't think he's gonna end the season
at three points up on turnovers a game. I think
he might end the season like eight assists in like
three point two turnovers a game. And that's an elite
assist to turnover ratio. So yeah, I do say that
opportunits get to take in a huge leap. I think

(25:36):
just some overhauling of his game with the new three
point shooting is there. He's gotten better at three throws
as well, and even though he was better than he
is now at the start of the season, there's been
some regression there, But yeah, I think Albert Singlen has
gone from hopeful All Star to bona fide. I'm here,
I'm going to be an All Star for the next
you know, ten years in this league, and I am

(25:59):
someone who you know, like the Rockets last season, there
was a fight to see, Okay, who's going to be
the best player on this team? Who's going to be
a start? Obviously you ask KD So it's arduble who
the best player on the team is. But it's not
because we're leveling by, you know, the below level. No,
it's because we have two guys who are already they're

(26:19):
like we right now, we have two superstars and that's
we haven't had one superstar ever since Game so and wet, Yeah,
I'm going to be he's.

Speaker 2 (26:29):
Just a superstar, not yeah, I'm going to be boring
and go with an a as well. I will note
that with the three point shooting, he's at thirty nine percent,
but a lot of that is propped up by the
open in Oklahoma City. I still think there's a lot
to be learned there, but the fact that the free
throw shooting is up from sixty nine to seventy four,
and also the free throw attempts. The fact that he's

(26:52):
now drawing seven point eight per game instead of five
point six, that's a bump between that and the overall
efficiency going up. That tells you it's real. He's getting smarter,
he's developing. And you know, just as I said in
giving a men a C plus that you know he's
not quite in my opinion, holding his weight thus far
in terms of the formula the Big Three, well, it's

(27:13):
being offset by all friend Shangoon. The only reason why
I'm not giving him an A plus is, you know,
the two point shooting is still at about fifty one
percent the true shooting. As you mentioned, it's it's good,
but it's not great. Fifty eight point three it's more
in line with year three and not when he dipped
to fifty four and a half last year. But I
also think that Shong Gooon is really limited by not

(27:35):
having a traditional point guard, like he doesn't get any
of the pick and roll opportunities that he got last
year with Fred van Fleet, which at one point was
his bread and butter, and yet for him to still
find a way to produce at this level and many
times initiating the offense as we saw late in the
game against Milwaukee. This is a superstar. I'm right there
in agreement with you, and the net ratings don't lie.

(27:57):
Like I mentioned, the Rockets have the number three net
rating in the NBA, obviously number one on offense. The
Rockets with Shangoon, the on versus off court differential is
more than twenty points. It's staggering. That is superstar level impact,
and honestly, you could argue for an A plus. I'm
just gonna say A to give a little bit of
room for further improvements, because I mean, it could be

(28:18):
that the thirty nine percent from three is realistic. I'm
not quite there yet, but I hope it is. We'll
see what happens over the larger sample, and I think
the two point shooting will go up with time. Again,
I think a lot of what's going on is that
it's sort of an apples to oranges comparing the previous years,
or he doesn't have friend and fleet to get him
some easier touches. I do think that Shangoon's touched near
the rem has improved relative to past years. He's just

(28:38):
not getting the in between shots at the rate, and
I guess the level of openness that he often did
when it was spread spoon feeding them and it was
a shot they could get in rhythm. So I think
there's so much justments going on there, and I think
he will improve. But yeah, if a guy has a
net rating differential of more than twenty at his usage,
I don't see how it can't be at lest today.

(29:00):
So yeah, I'll go a for all fringe and goon
and also transition to a guy who I think is
really easy. We can go really quick on this one,
Joshua Kogi A plus. I'm sorry to me, it's simple.
If you're a minimum signing and we know the defense
he plays with, he's a positive net ratings guy, knows
his limitations, and right now he's shooting fifty percent on threes,
So for me, it's pretty simple. Joshua Kogi has been

(29:23):
a high level defender in the NBA for a very
long time. The question has been how well could he
shoot from three? Last year he had that career year
at thirty five percent. The question is how sustainable it
would be to this point. He's built on that. Now,
Am I saying I expect the fifty percent to continue? No,
of course not. There's going to be some regression, but
grading it nine games in if you get the level

(29:45):
of defense you get from Joshua Koge, the awareness in
contrast to Tarry Easton, who's also shooting well for three.
But we know Tari at times can sort of do
a little bit too much. Now he's getting better at
that this year. Talking a little bit more about his
career there, But josh always stays within himself high IQ.
If you combine his defense on the perimeter with shooting
fifty percent from three relative to the expectations the contract,

(30:07):
for me, that's clearly a plus. It's an easy one, Paolo.
I'll let you give whatever grade you want to give
to josh and then you can pick the next.

Speaker 3 (30:15):
Yeah, I'm not gonna go too long on josh On.
On Joshakah, Yeah, I don't think that there's much that
can be said. He's a role player. He shoots threese
and he plays defense, and the expected the expectation going
to the season was just that he's he was going
to play defense, and now he's shooting threes that fixty
percent and he's starting like that is yeah, exactly. I

(30:35):
do think that there's some no the orient Andy Smith's
role to that, but yes, he is starting, and if
you just got to go with a relative to expectations,
the expectation was probably that he wasn't going to be
in the rotation and now he not only is, he's
starting and he is in a bowling up. So not
gonna go too deep into traffical guest done. I think
it's pretty self exploratory. He talked about it a plus

(30:57):
for me. He might get the best great out of me,
even though he's obviously not our best player. He talked
about that earlier. But moving on, I'm actually I'm gonna
go with Javari Sith Junior, Who's someone who I've been
talking about a bunt on basically every platform that I've
been on, and that's talked about on this podcast for
as well, including pre season. There's a leap that has

(31:20):
been a leap with with Javaris Smith engineer. Offensively, it
stopped just that he's meanting more shots. It's not just
he's being more aggressive, it's the complete packet. He's just
an overall better player offensively at every single, every single
part of the offense than he was last season. He's
better headling the ball, he's bet that he's better attacking
close outs, he's better generatism shots, he's very shooting. He's

(31:42):
very shooting shots. He's better getting to the rim. He's
just a more complete player. And the more time passes,
the more the closer he comes to more of a
Cam Johnson Mity Porter junior type than he becomes to
a I don't know, maybe auto Porter or some one
I could really lengthy forward that the shoots, I guess unaffordered,

(32:04):
a little bit more of a bad but you know,
Robert Covinton that I'll call it that he's more and
more going away from being a three and the wing
and more being just a complete forward that happens to
be that whose best attributes happened to be shooting in
defense and so also on you know it didn't quite

(32:24):
still last game, but there's that pop off game where
he has four plucks that has to get you excited.
Because the body is still really young. There's still a
lot of development to be done there. And if some
of that development he's him becoming a better and he's
going fastest throughout the last two years, him becoming a
better week side shot blocker, then I think that vodes really,

(32:45):
really well, for a thing that has opera who's gotten
it's not necessarily a high fire. He's more of someone
who's got a body up and deny and then have
guys change their paths rather than being someone who's just
you know, regarding but he can't do that is plenty
of Baganism. But I just think even though it's not
a necessity anymore from a concepts that I can go

(33:06):
next to shop blocker at the fort or excitedn't protected
at the fort, that doesn't take the fact that it
would still be nice to have one and if your
body can become and I think that's massive. Oh I
didn't quite give them a grade, did I? As far
as the grade goes, I'm going to go with an
A minus. I'm not going to give him an A
plus because there's been some gameplays kind of disappeared, but
I'm a can leader that and I do think that

(33:26):
there was one more thing I was gonna talk about, tribolic.
That's something you're gonna touch about his confidence and in
shooting through mistakes.

Speaker 2 (33:31):
So yeah, yeah, I'm going to give him a B plus.
The individual statistics are right in line with what you
would expect about fourteen points, forty four percent overall, thirty
seven percent from three and yeah, I think if you

(33:54):
looked at the individual stats in a vacuum, you'd say,
it's what you expect from from Juaris with junior winning
role player. And so if it's sort of in line
with expectations, I would personally go BE. But the reason
I go B plus and you could even argue a minus.
He excels in a couple of the little areas net ratings.
He's actually second on the team after Shingoon, So clearly

(34:16):
the Rockets are better with him on the court than off.
That's a consistent trend. I think, you know, a high
IQ guy with a ton of size that spaces the
floor and is respected as a shooter just provides lots
of value that's hard to quantify in the box score.
So I think that's what the differential reflects. And also
his willingness to take and ability to make big shots,

(34:37):
which he has late in the Oklahoma City, Detroit and
now Milwaukee games. Would he hit the go ahead three
on Sunday against the Bucks? I mean there's value in that.
Like role players don't always get a lot of touches,
and if you get off to a cold start. You
need to have that Mario Eli or Robert Rory in you,
that willingness to if you get the ball and a
tight spot in the fourth quarter and your he needs

(35:00):
you to put up a shot because it's in the
flow of the offense and you don't know if you're
going to get a better look against a tight defense.
You need to let it fly. And Jabbari even on
bad nights. And this is in contrast I think to
times the last couple of years when he was just
finding his sporting in the NBA and might get a
little bit tentative. No, this year, he's letting them fly.
So I would say, just looking at his individual statistics

(35:20):
relative relative to expectations, I would say B. But I'm
gonna go B plus because the differential and the you know,
the big shot in tangible you have to adjust for that.
I'll go B plus. But if you want to say
A minus what you did, I can't argue with you either.
I think that's fair. Let's move on. It's who should
I go to, Well, go another quickie, Clint Capella. I'm

(35:43):
going to give him a solid B. He's playing right
about what I would expect. You know, the touch isn't
what you would love it to be. But at the
same time, this is a guy who's been in the
NBA for a decade, So I'm not sure what you
could back at this point relative to a guy who's
making seven million dollars a year and is your third

(36:04):
string center behind all fringe and Dune and Steven Adams,
like it's a luxury. We saw the game that Stephen
missed in Memphis and Clint was able to step bed
and the Rockets didn't miss a beat, And that's going
to be really important over the balance of eighty two games,
and it could be even more important as the season progresses.
Like the Rockets have not headed back to back this point,
they have a lot in the second half of the year,

(36:24):
so having that depth behind Steven Adams could be even
more important as the year progresses, and perhaps that could
boost Clint into the A range once he needs to
play more. And I'm sure second half of the year
the Rockets will want to make sure they keep Steven
Adams in check so that he's as close to one
hundred percent as possible for the playoffs. To this point,
I would say Clint's been pretty much exactly what I suspected.

(36:48):
Last couple of games. He's only played in the first
half because they've been super high leverage, So it's one
of those, you know, give him a cameo, try and
steal some minutes in the first half and second half
riots or super high leverage guys, which he's not and
that tier. But yeah, he's been a very good third
string center, capable of being a backup center. It's great
to have him back. Doesn't really make any mistakes, doesn't

(37:09):
make a ton of plays, but he's a Yeah, he's
a good rebounder, he's a steady presence, doesn't do anything
stupid high IQ. Yeah, it's exactly what you would expect
for Clon Capella. And so I give him a solid B.

Speaker 3 (37:22):
Yeah. On Clint, you know, there's not really a lot
to say, but I will give him. I'll give him
a B plus just because I can't give him an
edge too low use it. I'll give him a P
plus more so because within the minutes than he's been given,
he's been actually really productive. Like if you scale it
up to I'm not gonna use per thirty six, I
don't use for one hundred even though I should use

(37:43):
I should use per seventy five. I mean, but by
one hundreds. He's averaging twenty points a game, twenty four rebounds,
you know, three blocks into two steals and three blocks,
which obviously not scalable at all. I'm just saying like,
for the minutes that he has played, he's productive. He's
he's playing i think ten minutes a game or nine

(38:04):
minutes a game. Yeah, ten minutes a game, savaging four points,
five rebounds, three offensive rebounds a game. Like you're playing nine,
you're playing ten minutes and you're getting three offensive rebounds.
It's kind of insane production. He's getting point seven blocks
a game on on ten minutes. If you played twenty,
he'd beginning one and a half. For the role that
he's been tasked to play, he's really made the most
out of those minutes. There's some you know, wonky wall

(38:26):
lights in which he's trying to shoot some kind of
hook shots of stuff like that. This is not even
raising the room with but I think those are really
feel and far between. He is shooting eighty percent from
the free throw line, which is obviously you know four
or five, but still great that he's hitting them. But
for the further role that he has, I don't think

(38:47):
I can't go lord than I can't keep them on
A because the role is small. But I can't go
lord than a meat plus because it could be worse.
And people say, oh, it's you know, a small stampo
and it's no various short communities that has more energy
to give it at all. At the same time, really
small mite that's maasically tough for it to be in
a rhythm, and we saw that with backup centers that
we've had or third string centers that we've had over

(39:08):
the years, but is not as good as squints. But
I do think that value to him staying ready and
I do think he's going to play, you know, really
important role of the season goes along and we deal
with injuries. So yeah, he's obviously not what he was before,
but he's still very useful, very useful center. But moving
on from Clint, which I think was pretty kind of

(39:28):
a KIMMI, I mean, actually, you know, I know everybody's
waiting for KD. I'm going to hold on or hold
off for a little bit more because I want to
touch on Steven Adams as far as the great goes,
I'm gonna give him an a minus, not really because
of his play, but more because of what the expectation
was going into the season. What I mean is, I

(39:50):
think if it was about a split, he got a
higher grade, But my expectation was already pretty I he
is still a game wrecker in what he does. He's
still someone who generates space for everybody else by existing.
He's still still someone who completely warps the rebounding strategy
for the other team. And he is currently like he's
currently grabbing five offensive rebounds a game, playing twenty three

(40:12):
minutes a night, Like that's that's a career not a
career high. He's had one season with five what with
actual five years at four point in right now, but
he was playing thirty four minutes a game at that point.
He's not playing twenty two and grabbing five offensive rebounds
a game, which is absolutely insane. And I thought to
that that he's having a career high field goal percentage.

(40:33):
So he's you know, obviously most of them are done
right in some of those you know, reverse plays around
the rim that all pigs know, and I know that
comes from the types of shots that he's taking. Still aggressive,
and most important of all, he is shooting obviously not sustainable,
but he's shooting eighty two percent from the line, which
is a far which is a far cry from a

(40:53):
forty six percent year four and thirty six or three
year the year before that. Like, if he can be
like Steve Atoms, if he can be a sixty percent
street through shooter, that's a game change is because if
you play hack at like hacker Steven Anamal Hackey Adams
playing late in games and he's sitting sixty percent, you're
likely not getting enough vauve for that strategy to be effective.

(41:14):
Like ship getting one point what sixty percent would be
like what one point two points per possession on each
twelve that you take on him. That keeps him on
the floor, and that makes it so he can't be
kind of invalidated in the playoff series. So yeah, I do.
I think he's played great. His verses isn't high because
I already expected him to be a big part of
what we do. He's just come out and proven to

(41:36):
be what I expected him to be and which is awesome.

Speaker 2 (41:39):
Yeah, I'm gonna go be Plus I expected a lot
of this and by the way, I should have clarified.
I mentioned B sort of being the expectation grade, and
I'm sure some that are settlers will say, well, wouldn't
C be the expectation No, this is a very good team, Like,
there's a reason why we were optimistic, and we're trying
to be a fun optimistic podcast. So no, I'm not
gonna take it like super literally and say, oh, Ce's

(42:01):
in the middle of the curve. No. I think for
most of these guys B as if they're performing relative
to expectations, and you know, with Steven, certainly, compared to
his regular season stats a year ago, he's well above that.
But I expected that go again based on what we
saw during the playoffs, the fact that he's getting healthier
now he's you know, multiple years removed from knee surgery,

(42:22):
and yeah, you already you know, stole my main point,
which was the free throws. That's the bump for me
from from B to B. Plus, Like the rebounding is phenomenal.
I expected it to be phenomenal. Offensive rebounding, he's the
best in the game, But defensively, I think he's moved
a little bit better than I expected. But maybe that's
a little bit of a bump, But it's the free

(42:44):
throws that to me. And it's a small sample, but
it's all we have. Even if the eighty is inflated,
as you mentioned, if it's just enough to take the
hack of Adams out of the playbook, that's a big deal.
So for me, Steven is a wonderful team player on
the net, ratings don't lie. He consistently impacts winning far
beyond what his traditional stats would suggest. But yeah, the

(43:06):
free throw shooting to this point, albeit in a small sample,
and I should mention I thought against the Bucks on
Sunday he had some nice finishes inside off of passes
from KD Like Katie would draw that second defender in
the mid range and he would love it over the top,
and Stephen did a nice job of finishing. And I
think it might be he has a little bit more
athleticism than he did last season, even in the playoffs.

(43:29):
Like I don't think he necessarily can create the separation
a few months ago that he can now he can
get up a little bit higher. That can make all
the difference as to whether that shot actually gets through
the rim it doesn't get blocked. So I give Stephen
a B plus you can certainly argue for that. Overall,
he's a winning player. I guess I'm a little not
more doubt on him, but just it's more reflective of

(43:49):
the fact that I just expected it from Steven Adams
going in. I was so high, you know, I mentioned
going into the season, like one reason why some of
the models I thought were too bearish in the Rockets
is people were expecting Steven ahs is based on the
regular season numbers last year, and in reality, relative to
the fifty two and thirty team, he's basically an off
season addition when you factor in what he's bringing to
this season's team relative to the fifty two and thirty

(44:12):
formula from a year ago. So yeah, very good year
for Steven. All Right, I'm going to go to one
that there could be some variance, and boy, I admit this,
there may be some recency bias to this. I'm going
to go a minus for Reed Shepherd like the net ratings,
And I know I'm contradicting myself a little bit because

(44:33):
the per minute stats don't suggest Read being worthy of
this grade. But the most important thing, and we didn't
see this last year. I know, small sample sized theater,
but he was billed as a generational shooting prospect. Samvessini
was among many people it said, he's perhaps the best

(44:53):
shooting prospects since Steph Curry, and we needed to see
sustained evidence at the NBA level that the three point
shot was going to translate. Well, we're nine games in
and he's shooting almost fifty percent from three. So just
that peace of mind that you know how you've been
on this in the past, like the shooting forever reason
hasn't always translated with rockets perimeter prospects. It is with reed,

(45:18):
like the three point shooting. And as the eure progresses
and he gets more confident, the nets not even moving
like you can tell this is an elite shooter. So
I'm grading reading on a little bit of a curve
because I didn't expect him to be a winning player
already at twenty one years old and year two and
with the obvious defensive deficiencies. So for the three point

(45:41):
shooting to translate to the extent that it is, that's
just for me at least, a huge peace of mind
that in the long run this is going to work out.
He needs more time, He's far from a finished product.
The defense, there's a lot to work on, but between
the shooting and the IQ and the handle, which is
better than I thought and a ton better than last year.

(46:02):
In my opinion, I'm pretty bullish on on what I've
seen and the reason I'm going a minus. You know,
the shooting, the piece of mind factory there, but also
the fact that he's played so well when the lights
are at their brightest, like these two games in San
Antonio and Milwaukee. These were statement games, and these were
high leverage minutes, like he kept you in those games.

(46:25):
Katie said after the Milwaukee win that Reid is the
reason we won. Those were huge plays when it mattered most.
I think in the Milwaukee game in the fourth quarter
he had three steals at a block the kick ahead,
Like there's so many little things that he does that
you can't coach. So I know the on off splits
aren't great. I know the zone has not looked great,

(46:48):
although I still think some of that is email. You
don't have to run zone quiet as much as he has.
With Reid. I'd like to see and maybe that's something
that this home stand will show when the opponents are
a little bit weaker. Maybe the experiment with read a
little bit more in manned situations and we see how
he holds up. But I just think between the shooting
the high leverage. There's a great stat in the NBA
dot Com Power Rankings that Reed has already played more

(47:11):
than double his crunch time minutes from a year ago.
Last year he was at under five. This year, he's
already at more than eleven. So kudos to ima Udoka
for trusting him, for giving him a longer runway. But
he's delivering like ever since opening night. He's actually twenty
one of forty one from three, which is above fifty percent.
This is a grade that is admittedly on a curve,

(47:33):
and that's the whole point of this exercise because we're
talking about expectations going into this year. But if you
had told me that Reid would be at almost fifty
percent from three on decent volume because he is Reed
Shepherd and he's making winning plays on the road against
the Spurs in the box. He's not a finished product.
There's a long way to go defensively, but overall year two,
the first ten games, coming off what was a very

(47:55):
underwhelming rookie season, I'm excited. I'm going to go a minus.
There's probably some recency bias. Whatever I'm I'm buying reads
talk right now, Paolo? How about you? Where are you
at and read?

Speaker 3 (48:11):
It's a bit tough for me to give him a
grade because on one hand, I don't want to overreact
to what is you know, probably three good games from
the last three games.

Speaker 2 (48:23):
I don't want to.

Speaker 3 (48:24):
At the same time, my exit team is going into
the season where really low, you guys know. But because
the expeditions were low, the grades should be higher. Because
I don't want to overreact, perhaps the grade should be
should be lower. I think I think I'm gonna go
with a bee because the straight beak. I think if
I if you showed me here's that line before the season,

(48:44):
I would have taken it. So probably that means you
to be a PE plus because I would have taken
it earlier before I please told me before the season started. Right, Well,
let's go into more details. Obviously, it's not just that
he's shooting fifty percent from three or forty eight percent.
Forty four percent from three from a great shooter is
a sustainable mark. Well, Canard has done it, Courier has

(49:06):
done it. But great shooters can shoot forty four percent
from three in the NBA, so his current forty eight
percent mark might not be that far off. The biggest bakeaway, though,
is it's five. Three is a game for someone who's
playing twenty two minutes a game, and these are you know, like,
he's not someone who's ball hogging, like he's he's a
high percentage of well not only a high percentage of

(49:28):
his shots, he takes nine shots, five of them are threes,
but also he's not someone who's you know, getting to
self create a lot. So he's taking three like basically
every cancer he gets, and he is making them and
he's really confident about it. And we've seen we've seen
the last two games, like there are vans where he's
just pulling up from you know, shots that he wasn't
he wasn't taking last season. So the offense looks great.

(49:51):
I I think you also got at the drum the
fact that he's everything three assists to one turnover, which
is great as well. And if you can scale that up,
see how that you know, vectually translates going forward. I
just need that the handle looks a lot better and
that turnovers show that, and he's perhaps the safe first
handle though we have on a team right now, so yeah,
that's a big development. He's obviously six y two, which

(50:12):
makes it easier. But still the defense is what keeps
me from giving it an A plus or yeah, yeah,
exact defense was good, I would have given him an
A plus. He might be that type of guy who's
never quite above average at playing straight up, you know,
the discipline defense, but he might be good enough that

(50:33):
when you combine that with his you know, the chaos
he creates with the steel steals and plugs, that he
might be a positive defender while being an incredible offensive player.
And that might be his ceiling, right, that might be
the formula. The defense has not looked good early in
the season on he's having to play you know, straight
up discipline defense. But I also think that part of

(50:57):
that is also that we kind of leave him on,
leave him on a n island a lot like that,
are I can I can ask the top of my head,
name you four or five possessions, and this is me
not remembering everything. One where he he is guarding a mismatch,
like a serious mismatch like Giannis or Webby or or
or you know, guys are clearly bigger than him, and

(51:19):
we're not sending help, and so I kind of think
that some of it is scheme as well. And I'm
not sure the zone is quite is quite the answer
to I think it's too much zone, and I don't
think needs that much zone. I do think that we're
not kind of adapting our defensive game players to the
opponents that we're facing.

Speaker 2 (51:36):
Right.

Speaker 3 (51:37):
We played in Milwaukee, and I'm sorry this kind of
goes away from talking about Reid for a bit, but
we played in Milwaukee and we let Giannis go completely
hamm on us like he's clearly their only threat, and
we didn't know the wall. We weren't throwing different defenders
at him. We didn't He didn't seem like we had
a game plan defensively too, specifically beat the Bucks beforehand,

(52:03):
when by it did look like we had a specific
game point to beat the Spurs, But at the same time,
when that started not working, we didn't adapt at all.
And I think when you play a team Michael Okay
see in which you know reads one switch away and
Shay is really good, he's just gonna pick him apart.

(52:23):
Letting him get picked apart is probably but not the
best place. I feel like Read has been left on
an island a little bit too much, and at the
same time we've played a little bit too much zone
with him. Like I think there's a happy middle ground
in which if the other team has a starter guard,
they probably need a little bit of help. You gotta
help him a little bit, but run a little bit
more zone. Perhaps you run some more aggressive schemes and

(52:45):
some murders of bleitzing schemes, and at the same time,
on when he's being targeted on a misnatch by a
play that's much figgured, perhaps you can help and you
can chase around the ball for the closeouts. It's just
something that we do a lot less this season than
we did last season. Like, I feel like we're not
necessarily doing really good job of making it so Read
not targets targeted as much as he is if he

(53:08):
as he has been, So that factors into my grade
as well. I think the highlight places steals the blocks,
and not only the steals on the box, but the
fact that when he gets to steal out of block,
he's very good at capitalizing on it and turning it
into points. Not necessarily fast. That ends up on a
reset half court possession. But you know, you talk about
the past too. I believe it's and I'm not sure
if it's a manatory eason on the break against the Bucks,

(53:31):
like that was really impressive, but it's not the only
time he's really good. There's also the kickout three where
he repositions late in the fourth quarter as well, and
there's been many plays like that, Like he's good at
translating that transition advantage into actual points. Commind that with
his shooting. Comminded with the fact that he I think
his defense might be getting a little bit too overexposed
because we're not really tailoring to having him on the

(53:53):
floor at all, which you know, it's obviously not a
star player. You're not going to change your entire scheme
because of him be worth that, but but it's worth
it to play, you know, normal defense for when you
have a small card on the floor and what that
in sales. So yeah, I'm gonna go. I'm gonna go
with the P plus because it's above my expectations because

(54:14):
my expectations were low. I think there's a big positive,
which is, like you said, it seems to be confirmed.
The knock on Wood that the shooting is real and
withdraw its prospects in over now that it might just
be the generational it might just be you know, best
shooter since Steph Curry or something like that. Considering the
shots it takes, the defense does not look great. The

(54:36):
activity has and I think the rest can be mitigated
by by you know, helping him a little bit more
on the defensive end as well. Guys, I got it
from this thing. I'm doing this thing when I'm going
too long on the first and then I don't leave
myself on assign to because for the second guy. But
I think the only guy I don't know we have
taries and and KD do I want to leave KD
to the town I'm gonna started to be about Kad.

(54:59):
So KD he has just been well basically Kadi. He's
had a couple of tough games, the Spurs game. There's
been a couple of off games there. But you know,
Katie is never like KD was never going to be
an offensive hub like he's never been James Harmond, Right,
He's a great scorer, but he's not a great planning.
He's an ok play maker. He's a smart player, but
his execution of pass is not necessarily the greatest, and

(55:21):
he sometimes takes the tick too long to punish what
he's getting, the double tea, which weeks to turn off.
Beyond that, I think it's been as good as good
as you can expect it to be. I mean, he's,
you know what, twenty five points per game. He's had
a couple of thirty bombs. He's not necessarily been a or.
He hasn't been a ballhog at all. He takes his

(55:41):
shots to within the offense. He's kept us a vote
in games where we needed someone to keep us in
the game. He's taken he's carried or taken us home
in games where we've needed a closer at the end
of the end of the fourth quarter. So he's been
everything I expected him to be. I'm gonna give him
an A because he's KD. Like what else can I

(56:01):
give you? Like? He does not? Really, you cantally be
dam much better than what I expected you to be,
because I expected you to be an all time grade,
and it turns up you're still an all time grades,
even at thirty seven years old. But he's still as
good as I could have expected Tidy to be.

Speaker 2 (56:18):
Beyond that, I've been.

Speaker 3 (56:19):
Impressed by two sacks. The first two is his hustle,
I feel like defense, not that I thought Kad wasn't
gonna hustle on defense, but running in transition, you know,
even on offense, taking you know, a few driving wanes,
like going through contact. He shooting a lot of three
pros running in transition, even defensively, rotating and sometimes he

(56:42):
takes he takes simple but he makes some defensive mistakes.
But for the most part hustling, you know, walking shots
at the rim got done done by Wemby because he
went to try to do to try to block a
shot that I don't think many superstars in the league
would have tried to block. I don't think many superstians
really would have been put in position to be done
done by Wemby. I don't think the media took that

(57:03):
and ran with it. But that could have been you know,
that could have been a big deal. So yeahs as
far as k goes, I think he's been awesome. The
other factor that I was going to that I was
going to touch on it is he seems to really
be enjoying his time here. Like you look at his mannerisms,
on the court, like someone makes a big play and

(57:24):
he's hype, Like he's really hype. He seems to take
a reach out for them.

Speaker 2 (57:27):
They're under his wing.

Speaker 3 (57:28):
He seems to have taken Jerry smith Unity under his
wing as well. Like this is not a superstar riding
into the sunset. He's someone who's trying to win, and
he's someone who's getting fired up on a position to
possession basis when this team does its typical highlight type.
This thing is pretty prone to highlights. And he like
he's all in emotionally as well, And I think that's

(57:50):
a big deal, Like this is not superstar, you know,
looking and seeing, Hey, this is probably is the best
team that gives me the best chance at a ring.
But it's probably a fun cry right, I'm probably, you know,
seeing off my career. He don't try to win Monaca
try too hard? No, and see why Hedi is fully
bought in both from an emotional standpoint, from an effort standpoint,
And it feels like he really really enjoys playing with us.

(58:13):
I'm sorry, I'm not cured if some ban from one
other teams, you don't tell me that this happens with
everybody and that eventually he leaves on by turfs or
whatever they may call it. But from my point of view,
I've been he has surpassed my expectations from a from
a leadership and then from a you know, investment emotional
investment standpoint as well, besides his play, because his play

(58:34):
has been He's Katie, what else do?

Speaker 2 (58:37):
Yeah, I'll go be like. I largely agree with all
of your points. He's been Kevin Durant. He hasn't fallen
short of expectations. But I also don't think, at least
yet that he's overachieved them, which is why I come
back to be abruptly in line with expectations. I am
a little more alarmed than you are about the turnovers,
simply because his assists of depth. Like most of his career,

(59:00):
he's been at about three turnovers per game, So it's
not that alarming, but the fact that he's having the
turnovers while also not having as many assists. I would
need to dive deeper into the data to see his
touches relative to last season, but it does feel like
some of the more baffling turnovers have been up because
they say is going down. I don't think he's being selfish,
but I think it probably reflects that, and it makes

(59:22):
sense given the diversity of playmakers on this team. He's
not quite as high in usage rate as he has
been in previous years, and so in that context, some
of the more baffling turnovers can be pretty frustrating, not
terribly so I'm looking up his usage rate. He's at
twenty six point four this year. For his career, he's

(59:42):
at thirty. He was at about twenty nine the last
couple of years in Phoenix, so not a dramatic decline,
but a little bit of a dip, and so that's
why I do dock him a little bit for the turnovers.
I think he can clean it up now. One thing
he didn't point out that I think is worth noting.
The average free throw is going back to seven point
nine per game. That's his most in over ten years.

(01:00:04):
So to go from about five and a half to
last two years in Phoenix to almost eight per game
this year, and of course he's still lights out making
them at over eighty seven percent on the season, that's
really promising. So even if you worry a little bit
about the turnover, it's the same time him showing an
ability and perhaps it speaks to you know, the diversity

(01:00:24):
of options on this team. He gets himself more easily
into advantage situations where defenses have no choice but to
fall him. Regardless of the reason, the productivity is up.
So even if you worry a little bit about the
assistant turnamo ratio, the fact that he's getting to the
line much more frequently for a guy who has a
who is as lethal let making free throws as Kevin
is to be, you have to reward him for that.

(01:00:45):
And then the reason I can't give him higher than
a bee. We've seen glimpses, but other than the game
against Milwaukee, he hasn't done too much landing the plane
like he's had. He's had moments, but generally he hasn't
been the guy late in close games. And honestly, the
Rockets have lost, as you pointed out earlier in the

(01:01:07):
pod pallem, most of the close games obviously, ok see,
they had a tough time getting it to Kevin in
the fourth quarter in overtimes Detroit. He had some really
big moments early in the fourth quarter, but then down
the stretch they initiated offense through Shongoon A little bit
the same story against Dallas, they did win it, but
after Katie had a couple of threes way through the quarter,
they doubled him midway through. Now, I don't think all

(01:01:30):
of that is on Kevin Durant. Some of that is
on the Rockets to develop counters, and I think we
saw that a little bit more against the Bucks. I
thought Katie's postgame interview was revealing. He talked about how
he thought the spacing was a lot better having one
or two guys at the top of the key rather
than three or four. In other words, get your shooters
to the corners and give Kad and Shangoon or whoever

(01:01:52):
the guys are involved in your main actions at the
top of the key more room to operate. He needs
to be more criffs with the decisions when the those
double teams come, when those tracks come, I think he'll
get there. What he showed against the Bucks is clear
evidence that he's still the same kd in terms of
being lights out late in a close game and the
closer the Rockets didn't have when it was the Jalen

(01:02:14):
Green led version of a year ago. By the way,
how terrible is it for Jalen til awful for the
guy to have that great debut and then injury the
handstring again. But as far as KD, I think we'll
give him a higher grade as the year moves along.
But to this point, the Milwaukee game is the only
one where he's truly been the closer, at least late

(01:02:34):
in the fourth quarter, be it scoring or passing, you know,
generating those those high leverage buckets to get the Rockets
to the finish line. So, you know, one game out
of nine, it's not bad. I'm not docking him for it.
But at the same time, he hasn't like stolen games
for the Rockets late quite to the level that I
would that I would give him, you know, an A four,

(01:02:54):
and I think he's probably gonna get there. So this
is just a first nine games. Kevin Durant, no disappoint
but I also can't give him an A just yet.
I think Katie is capable of more, and my guess
is that as the year progresses, he's going to do
that because I think a lot of the issues, especially
the late game execution, just come down to you know,
he's integrating himself onto a new team. His teammates and

(01:03:15):
his coaches are trying to figure out how to best
use him. I think that's going to get better as
the season moves along, and we're already seeing evidence based
in the Milwaukee game that that the Rockets and Katie
are figuring it out so B to this point, but
I think there's plenty of room for upper mobility. And
then the last grade Tari is a tricky one for me.
I'm gonna go B plus. Superficially, I want to go

(01:03:36):
A because he's shooting over fifty percent from three and
he's played in all nine games. So the big concerns
with Tari, like in the macro, were obviously the durability
coming off the leg issues the last two years, and
how consistent is the three point stroke To this point,
He's cleared both of those those checkpoints in a big way.
But at the same time, his on off rating amongst

(01:03:59):
the rotation guys amongst the worst. They are minus six
point six in terms of the differential, So I'm torn
like there can be some statistical noise to that, especially
early in the year, but it does suggest and the
eye test sort of tells me the same thing that
for whatever reason, he hasn't been quite as impactful defensively

(01:04:20):
as we've seen in previous years. I also don't think
he's been quite as effective on two pointers in terms
of finishing at the rim and driving. So I think
in the big picture, and it's why I do give
him a B plus. Like the uptick in three point
shooting and durability. It's most important because if he clears
those two bars, then he's got enough to his game

(01:04:42):
that he should be okay. But I also can't discount
the metrics either, So that's that's why I come to
a B plus. I want to give him more than that,
but I just like I can't just totally ignore what
the metrics are saying, and so that's that's where I
land on B plus. Powell brings home what's your your
starry grade and why.

Speaker 3 (01:05:09):
Yeah, it's gonna be harsh, and it's gonna it's not
gonna be lower because of the shooting, because the shooting
has kept us in games at times, but also the
defense has fallen off A quick to ask me, I'm
gonna give him, gonna give him a B minus. That's
really close to the sequats. I disagree with one of
the things you said. I think offensively, he's just a

(01:05:31):
straight up better player than he was last season. I
think his finishing at the rim is a lot better.
I do think that the stats are skewed because he
has shot one and looking at around at one, five,
six seven, he shot, he shot eight mid dram shots.
He hasn't made a single one of them. And if

(01:05:51):
you and it's to really in the season, if you
take eight to two point tries away, which are misses,
he'd be seventeen of seventeen of twenty six, which would
be awesome at the rim.

Speaker 2 (01:06:03):
Looking at the two point stats, he's down from fifty
five point seven to fifty. But yeah, I mean there
can be some those can be wonky early in the
year or to your point.

Speaker 3 (01:06:12):
He's currently sixty five percent of the rip, which is
really good. So At and I do think that he's
had some tougher finishes than he typically does and less
open then than he typically does. But that being said, honestly,
the shooting looks a lot better and he's it's going
in a lot more. But that's where it kind of ends.

(01:06:34):
X YZ positive things go for Tar for Tari this season,
his defensive impact has fallen off a cliff. He's gone
from one point seven steals a game and nearly a
block to Whe'm still a game and half a blog.
He's not the game wrecker he used to be. His
defense basically, he's not as locked then. I don't know

(01:06:54):
what has happened. It feels to me like the combination
of him being outside of the top one hundred for
ESPN or whatever. Maybe that was really bugging him, plus
not getting his extension has really gotten into his head.
He's starting the ball over more than he's than he's
ever had by a large margin. He's playing the same
things he was last season, and he's starting the ball
over twice as much. Like it seems like someone told

(01:07:17):
them we've got like, if you want to be recognized,
you've got to be a scorer. And he's not a scorer.
I'm sorry, Like there's some things he can do, can
be a connective piece and sometimes score a little bit.
This team has plenty good enough it's scoring. We don't
need you to be a scorer. We need you to
we need you to be a smart player with the
touches that you do get, which are mostly off kickouts

(01:07:38):
and attacking closeouts. The Rockets don't need you to be
a shot creator at all, Like the Rockets need very
reason to be the game record. He has been defensively,
and all of the impact metrics and everybody who is
smart in the NBA landscape value for reason props to
the table the first three years of his career. I
guarantee you, if you go ask those same people they

(01:08:00):
look at this season, they're gonna tell you he's fallen
off a cliff because he has. I was gonna ask
you because I just think it's an interesting question, and
I think most people will answer it incorrectly. I think
if you ask most people if he's had a better
or worse season than last season, I think a lot
of people would have said he's having a better season
because of three point twoty even with the three point shooting.
To me, he's had a worst seasons across the board

(01:08:22):
besides that shooting, and besides the league that he seems
to have made at finishing at the rim. That does
not help outweigh what he has fallen off defensively and
him and what is the citsion making has been, Like,
he's not generally in turnovers, he's not been as long
downs as he was before. The Rockets needs are reason
to be the version of tar reason that he was
the first three years, and that's what's gonna get them

(01:08:44):
paid him being an offensive Aukian is not gonna get
them paid at the end of the season by some
team like even if he does. He also handed it
went really well and he's averaging sixteen points a game,
but he's played he's playing as port defense as he
has the season.

Speaker 2 (01:09:00):
I think you're probably right in the overall impact, but
I do think there's a little bit of an insinuating
circumstance in that a lot of his minutes off the
bench are mirrored by Reed Shepherd and Steven Adams or
Capella ie double Big. So I do think that the
lineups when he is on the floor, it's a little

(01:09:21):
bit more difficult to get those steals and blocks, those
home run plays because there's such a clear deficiency, or
they're playing zone, there's such a clear way for the
opposing team to attack. So I guess that's the difference
between me and you. I don't think you're wrong when
you look at the data and by the eye test,
I agree with you. He's not as impactful as he
was the last couple of years. Even with the leg injury. However,

(01:09:43):
I do think you have to give him besides the
obvious small sample size caveat, I do think you have
to give him a little bit of grace because of
who he's playing with. I think that complicates it a
little bit.

Speaker 3 (01:09:54):
Well, I'm like this the gowner that lineups play a
factor into the defense. Still, like we're watching the games
with our eyes and sign you said you agree with
me as well, Like he has not seen as the
backfall as he was. He does not seem as locked
the next he was defensively last season, like the Resan
was probably my favorite player last season on the Rockets,
and he just doesn't seem anything like himself. You're seeing

(01:10:16):
like across the board, fowls are down, which you might
you might think that foules an are a good thing.
I think foles are down because he's not as locked
in as.

Speaker 2 (01:10:24):
He used to be.

Speaker 3 (01:10:26):
And when you play, you know, physical defense, you'll give
up fouls. Turnovers are double what they've been, blocks are down,
stills are down. You know you can argue that, Yeah,
I can take that the blocks and the stills being
done because they're scoring more easily. But still, like you're
talking about rebounding is down. Offensive rebounding interestific, which is
mostly an effort metric, is done as well, and other

(01:10:48):
Rockets have missed less shots that plays a role, but
that's done as well. I think he has clearly taken
a leap offensively finishing at the rim, but if that
comes at the expense of the defensive end that he
has had in previous seasons. And I think the counter
to what you've said is he's had that defensive impact
across the first two seasons of his career, and the
first two of them he was playing with with worse

(01:11:10):
defenses than even what we are doing now with Doctor
telt Argue, and so he was still like, he still
stood out in those teams, and he's not standing out
right now. So yeah, I would like Tarya's going to
be my rougher grade of the bunch, Like I think
it's a P minus slashes C plus for Tari, And
I hope that his mentality shifts back to what he

(01:11:33):
was last season, because I do think that a part
of it has to be like what happened in the
off season with him being outraded, that he was out
of the top one hundred and him being out for
not really if he's out for it, but he was
clearly upset that he did not get extended, Like the
Rockets are very analytically driven from an office, at least
from the Rockets. You're not going to get more money

(01:11:54):
from being a better scorer, the worst defensive player, and
worse an impact matrix across the board than he would
by being the version of yourself that you were last season.
If you were a version of yourself that you were
last season and you played fifty five games or seventy games,
I think the Roggets would have probably given you the
contract that you want to think. The doubt was his health,
not his plays out. So yeah, and I'm not sure

(01:12:16):
if he's gonna convince a lot of other teams to
play him more based on scoring, because as an in
free agency, if you're going after the scorer, you're probably
not going to go after the upside of twenty The
scoring upside of twenty four year old isn't as rough
as that might sound. We're only gonna go off as
someone like Cam Thomas or someone like Kaminga or someone
like that, not necessarily like I think, I just think

(01:12:39):
that it's been completely off the mark. What we need
tarried to be and what Tory has been, even though
even though he's made a lot of timely shots, but
once again, if you can't get stops, it's sort excited
to be be too happy about fifty percent from three
and the defense has fallen off because fifty percent from
is not gonna hold and defenses get better.

Speaker 2 (01:12:59):
So yeah, well, the only counters that I would make
even if the overall defenses were worse, And then you
have to go back to maybe the first season of
Email or Doka. More realistically, Tari's rookie season with Steven Silas,
I mean last year, and I'd argue the second half
of Email's first year. We're definitely better defenses overall than
what we've seen, even if the overall defense is a

(01:13:19):
little bit better, which I'm not sure is the case.
I think it's offset by there being such a clear
avenue to attack with red and or the double big
i e. The zone, and the ability to shoot threes
in a way there wasn't. So I just think stylistically
there's more of an easy way for oponents who know
exactly what they want to do, and many times that
action is away from Chari Easton relative to his first

(01:13:40):
couple of seasons. And the other point that I would make,
I think, playing with Reed shefferd Reid's game is so
dependent on making those home run plays defensively that if
you're one of the other four players, it probably makes
you be a little bit more disciplined, just because you
can't have two or three guys all swinging for defenses
or otherwise you're just going to be a complete liability
on that back line on a lot of possession. So

(01:14:00):
I think sort of feeling out how those two guys
can play together that could be a little bit of
it as well. With that said, that's just nitpicking. By
and large, I agree with you. By the eye test,
he's not as impactful, and so yeah, you can you
can talk me into a little grade. I guess it's
just for me going into the season. He's been so
you know, out kicking the coverage with regards to what
I was watching that perhaps I'm being a little too

(01:14:20):
optimistic and overlooking the clear deficiencies in areas that we
thought were strengths based on Tari's first three seasons. All right,
winding down the pod, we got to be very quick
here because we've been over an hour. Our thoughts, it's
be a quick pod, but come on, we haven't had
a full show in a couple of weeks, so I
guess I should have expected it sixty seconds or less.
The three game homestand coming up, what's one variable that

(01:14:42):
you're watching. You've got Wizards Blazers and Orlando Magic. Wizards
are team you should clearly be Portland and Orlando competent teams,
but neither great. You'll be favored by suspect at least
six or seven points in both of those games, So
I think three to zero would be the expectation. You
can live with two and one. Anything one and two

(01:15:04):
or worse is a disaster considering the schedule. This is
a stretch at home with no back to backs where
you should feast. In terms of keys to watch for,
I mentioned it leading off the pod and our Emai
Udoka grading segments, so I'll I'll end it here. They've
got to get the three point math closer to parody,
because when you're you're playing a lesser team, the one
way that your perceived advantage can be eroded is if

(01:15:27):
you're losing by math. And so these are the types
of opponents that I think you can get off a
lot of threes against I think you should prioritize it
to make sure that you're not leaving yourself vulnerable. Because
as long as the math is close to level, the
Rockets should have more talent with these than these teams.
So in terms of what to watch for for me,
is the three point math discrepancy that needs to get

(01:15:48):
closer to parody this week? I know the Rockets are
an analytic friendly organization, so it's something that internally, I
think they're already aware of. They have a couple of
practice days going in, so I think that should be
a focal point. I think it will be a focal point,
and I think especially against the Wizards, who are a
bad defensive team and the Rocket shoup but get whatever
they want. I think you'll see a few more threes.
I think that's the priority. The accuracy is already there now,

(01:16:08):
the volume is the priority. Palla, what are you looking
for on this home stand sixty seconds or less?

Speaker 3 (01:16:14):
Yeah, I'm not gonna get too deep into it. I'm
actually not that worried about the three point math, and
I am a very pro analytics type of guy. But
I do think that our offense has not been the problem.
I think part of the reason why we're shooting so
such a percentagely because we're taking really quality looks. So
I think I don't want to mess with the offense
too much other than order to do things turnovers. That's

(01:16:34):
I think there's a conversation we can have later down
the line as we see a bigger sample. At the
same time, as far as the three games go, you've
gotta go through and know the Magic got an awful
team this year, like they're or on six. I believe
they're recordedly bringing the Timberwolves, the Thrillblazer. Sorry, so one
of those teams will have one extra loss going into
the Rockets game. The Wizards, you just got to blow

(01:16:56):
them out and you can. You can let them hang
in the game. I think you should go through. And
as far as trends, I'm looking for the defense and
I'm looking for Orlando is a little bit of a
gimmicky team. Even though they have Desmond Vayne and he
typically cooks the Rockets, the spacing is just not there.
Poulos having a terrible start to the season, Farms the

(01:17:16):
same thing. So I'm looking like all the Rockets handle
the Wizards special pick from last year. Alis. Sorry, he's
had some top off games to start the season. We'll
see how, but he doesn't seem like the type of
play that could punish the Rockets a lot. Like he's
selling for a lot of like a lot of postplay,
what a lot of fade away, a lot of shots

(01:17:37):
that you can bother with length. Yeah, we'll see how
that goes. But I may like they should be three, know,
and I think it would be pretty worrying if they're
not the only game. I think it's semi acceptable tools
but don't really acceptable tools will actually be the Timberwolves,
not the Magic because they've realizer. Sorry, he messing those
two up. They did beat the Thunder, they did beat
the Nuggets. They did beat the Lakers as well, so

(01:18:00):
they seem to be a pretty for real team, even
though they're five and four and they've lost some stinkers
to teams that are not as good, but their schedule
has been pretty tough. They've lost the Clippers that hit
the Timberwolves a team, but they've been in some what
we think will be good teams as well. So the Timberwolves,
the Trillblazer Jesus Christ might be for real, So that
might be a Bugs type game in which, well it

(01:18:24):
turns out that this team is actually just better than
we expect them. There's result that they're going to be
a playoff team. So yeah, going into it, I expect
three and zero. I'll be really sad if it's not
three and O. But I could accept the lost of
the players depending on how the game goes.

Speaker 2 (01:18:39):
And there's no Scoot Henderson, which is obviously helping them
in a lot of games.

Speaker 3 (01:18:43):
Don't do that to me, I know.

Speaker 2 (01:18:45):
Sorry. Anyway, we'll wrap it here. And as far as plugs,
you guys know the trill by now, but launch pods
seven ninety on Twitter and if you hit up that
link tree in the bio, that's kind of everything you need.
As far as Clutch Band, Sports Talk seven nine, any USA,
Today's Rockets Wire, if you want to consume their content,
just go to launch Pod seven ninety on Twitter, hit
up to link tree and also has where you can

(01:19:07):
find us. As far as all the major distributors YouTube
all that good stuff, Launch pod seven ninety on Twitter,
hit up the link tree, and of course you can
follow Powlow and myself at Benjubo's and at Palo Alves NBA.
All right, that'll do it for tonight on mapp of
Palo Alves. I'm Benjubo's thanks to all of you guys
for listening, and please come back soon for more new
episodes of The Rockets Launch Pod

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