Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Hey, thanks for listening, and welcome back to the Brian
Mud Show.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
Time now for today's top three takeaways.
Speaker 1 (00:10):
Beyond the Pump the key to ending biden Inflation. Yeah, so,
as we dive into my takeaways today, we got the
key to ending Bidenflation. It's in hand. There's some good
things going on here. Oh, Bud, can you see past
(00:31):
day twenty two? Are you surviving the squeeze?
Speaker 3 (00:35):
Joel?
Speaker 4 (00:36):
I am. I don't feel squeezed at all.
Speaker 1 (00:39):
No, not even a little bit inhibited. Guilty saying that,
but no, not not where's the guilt, by the way,
I don't know. I'm just so you're not feeling like,
you know, a little uncomfortable bunching in the drawers or
anything like that, not restricted in any way, and just.
Speaker 3 (00:57):
Uh.
Speaker 5 (00:58):
It's now the second law bunggust government shutdown in US history,
and many are wondering if there's any end in sight.
The Senate will vote today on gop back bills to
both reopen the government but also pay essential workers. With
the House still out of session for another week, House
Speaker Mike Johnson has told lawmakers to be on forty
eight hours notice, with the hope that a government employee
(01:19):
pay bill passes.
Speaker 1 (01:20):
There is something that is instructive here and it will
be the one to watch, and that is the pay
for people that are reporting to work. Now. Again, everybody,
even those that are furloughed under law, are to be
paid of whether so whether they're reporting to work or
not reporting to work when this ends, they are to
be paid. Now, I think any reasonable person, any reasonable
(01:47):
person will say, you know what, if you're going to work,
you should be paid on schedule at the time that
you're supposed to be paid, right, And so Democrats voted
against that. For the military, Democrats literally voted to say
no active military personnel should.
Speaker 3 (02:04):
Not be paid on schedule.
Speaker 1 (02:08):
And so Trump, through whatever budgeting and revenue that was
coming in, said, look, get the troops paid. So all
military were paid on schedule last week. But they're the
only ones today that have been paid on schedule during
the partial shutdown. And so this would say, hey, everybody
period should get paid that's reporting to work right now.
(02:28):
That should be the least controversial thing ever, right, how
could you vote against that? So we'll see how this
goes today. But again, if Democrats voted against the troops
game paid, the first time.
Speaker 3 (02:38):
I mean, I don't know.
Speaker 1 (02:39):
I mean, it probably is safe to say that if
there's still somebody that existed like USAID, did care for
them to get paid more than they would somebody who
is securing freedom for this country. But that would be
like on on message and target for them. But that's
the vote to watch today. Let's talk about my top
takeaway here, the key to Endie Biden inflation trivia time.
(03:02):
And and by the way, this is an easy one.
I know some of my trivia editions are pretty challenging.
Speaker 3 (03:08):
This is not.
Speaker 1 (03:10):
What commodity has the biggest impact on the cost of living.
Speaker 4 (03:16):
Yeah, Brian, it is easy. Come on, it's it's gas.
It's gasoline, oil oil, yes, oil, which is which is
what makes gas. Come on, you know what I mean?
Come on, man, Yes, all right, it's good.
Speaker 3 (03:35):
It's good. I'm not a car guy.
Speaker 1 (03:40):
So from the gas that you put into your car
to the manufacturing and transportation of virtually every product, there
is no bigger cost consideration that comes into play than
the price of a barrel of oil. And so we're
currently experiencing the lowest price that we've paid at the
pump in over two years. And well, that's nice. And
(04:01):
by the way, there's more to come. Yesterday, the price
of oil WTI crewed Texas crewed, so that's your Western
Texas crewed. That's the main supply in these states United
touched fifty seven dollars a barrel. Now, you know the
(04:24):
last time prior to yesterday that oil was as low
as fifty seven bucks of barrel, aside from about a
ten minute Liberation Day Kleberation Day freak out in April,
when was the last time.
Speaker 3 (04:39):
Oil would have been would have been there? You got
this show?
Speaker 4 (04:43):
Well, I know Trump was president.
Speaker 1 (04:45):
That's right, Ben about the last time that Donald Trump
was president of the United States see prior to yesterday.
The last time that a stable market priced oil at
fifty seven bucks was on January thirty, first of twenty
twenty one. That was just a eleven days removed from
President Trump's final day of his first term. The day
that Donald Trump left office, a barrel of oil was
(05:07):
trading at fifty one dollars per barrel, which shows a
just how quickly it began to rise under the Biden administration,
as the president signed executive orders limiting the harvesting and
distribution of the lease or resource, leading to the price
rising by greater than eleven percent during Biden's first eleven days.
Speaker 3 (05:27):
It's one of the interesting things going to looking back.
Speaker 1 (05:29):
I mean, we could take a look at the American
Rescue Plan, which was the Biden inflation plan. As it
turned out, that was the biggest causation behind the forty
plus year high inflation we had with Biden.
Speaker 3 (05:41):
But actually it started right away because as soon.
Speaker 1 (05:44):
As Biden started signing to those executive orders saying pipeline, pipeline,
and we're just not going to approve any more permits
for harvesting in the US and only the price of
oil increased by greater than one percent per day during
the first two weeks of Biden was present. Wasted no
time in jacking up prices for you en route to
(06:04):
oil eventually touching one hundred and twenty dollars during the
peak of Biden inflation. And by the way, that shows
you how much progress Trump is made in restoring america
first energy policy. Oil is now less than half of
what it was at the peak of Biden inflation. Now,
this means that his policies have led to a twenty
(06:27):
seven percent price decrease in the single most important commodity.
Speaker 3 (06:32):
That is huge.
Speaker 1 (06:33):
That is huge, and as you're starting to see the
effects of the pump, the impact is soon going to
be felt to the manufacturing and wholesale level in addition
to the immediate impact within the transportation sector. And what
does this mean to you, Well, let's say that we
hold the price of oil near fifty seven dollars. It's
an am but let's say we do. It's an annualized
savings of about twenty five hundred dollars for you. That
(06:57):
would be the average household impact compared to oil at
seventy eight dollars per barrel. Okay, So from where Trump
inherited oil to where it is today we hold this,
that's twenty five hundred dollars in annualized savings for you.
That would also effectively spell the end of Biden inflation.
Speaker 3 (07:15):
But that's just one part of the dynamic.
Speaker 1 (07:16):
And play my second takeaway for you today, low energy
prices with a strong economy too. Here's Kevin Hassett, National
Economic Council Chair to Fox Business yesterday.
Speaker 2 (07:29):
Compared to last year, the deficit will be reduced by
about six hundred billion dollars because of all the policies
that President Trump has helped Congress and act, and that
six hundred billion dollar reduction in the deficit. If you
go back and look at the academic literature, that's about
explains why interest rates are so low.
Speaker 1 (07:46):
Right, that's big, six hundred billion dollars in deficit reduction.
How about we just go ahead and make this partial
government shut down permanent and run budget serve pluses.
Speaker 3 (07:55):
What do you say.
Speaker 1 (07:58):
Anyway, all commodity prices, oil is priced based upon supplying demand.
When there's a growing economy, what's going to happen with
oil demand, Well, it's naturally going to rise along with it, right,
For that reason, what we typically see is oil price
is trending higher with a stronger growth economy. But that's
(08:19):
not the case with what's happening here. Well, many will
argue whether or not we're in a good economy. Growth
is growth, and growth equals additional demand, and there has
been a lot more of it recently.
Speaker 3 (08:29):
To give you an idea, US economy.
Speaker 1 (08:31):
Grew at an annualized rate of three point eight percent
in the second quarter of this year, Trump's first full
quarter as president, and it's projected to grow according to
the Atlanta fed at a three point nine percent rate
in the third quarter.
Speaker 3 (08:44):
That's about to end.
Speaker 1 (08:45):
Now, do you know the last time that the economy
grew at over three percent with oil sustained at fifty
seven dollars or less?
Speaker 3 (08:55):
Come on, Joel, I know you got this one. I'm
going to guess that Trump was president.
Speaker 1 (08:59):
There you go, happened twice while Trump was president. How
about before Trump was president? You'd have to go all
the way back to two thousand and four. But the
thing about going all the way back to two thousand
and four, the value of the dollar was worth seventy
two percent more than it is today because of the
(09:21):
impact of inflation over the past twenty one years. You
know the last time that we had oil in inflation
adjusted dollars at prices as low as we have right
now while the economy has growing at over three percent, Dude,
you'd have to go all the way back to the nineties,
all the way back to the late nineties. So yeah,
(09:47):
if prices can be sustained at these levels or even lowered,
it will not take long for you to see and
feel meaningful relief beyond the pump and most importantly signaling
the end of Biden inflation. There is a caveat though.
I say this with acaveat. My third takeaway for you today,
and it has to do with trade. This is US
Trade Representative Administrator Jamison Greer to Laura Ingram last night.
Speaker 3 (10:10):
Our focus is trying to do what's right for America.
Speaker 4 (10:13):
This is not an issue where we're trying to hurt
China or make them lose.
Speaker 3 (10:16):
I mean, that's just not what we're doing.
Speaker 4 (10:17):
Like the Chinese motivations obviously are totally different.
Speaker 1 (10:20):
Okay, so the China trade stuff that is is going on.
The Tax Foundation's the latest estimate of the average annual
household impact of President Trump's and post tariffs checks in
at about thirteen hundred dollars. What this means is that
the net effect of the Trump policies on inflation to
(10:42):
you at current levels of tariffs and energy prices would
be a net savings of about twelve hundred dollars per
year going forward over what you were paying last year.
This means that even with the Trump tariff policies in place,
his energy policies have the ability to not only account
for the consumer costs associated with them, but to provide
(11:02):
meaningful overall savings too. And on that note, December eighth
is a key day. That's the date that the Supreme
Court has set to hear the Trump tariffs case and
specifically whether the President has the authority to impose tariffs unilaterally,
as he has done throughout the first year of his administration.
The decision in that case could keep the status quo
(11:24):
in place, or potentially provide an additional thirteen hundred dollars
in annualized savings, or effectively bring to inflation and the
economy back to where it was when when Trump was
previously president of the United States, which, as you'll recalls,
a pretty great place. So Trump supporters may actually find
(11:44):
themselves conflicted on this one. Do you trust the president's
foreign policy approach enough to believe that paint and extra
thirteen hundred dollars per year is the best thing? Or
would you rather attempt to go back to something resembling
the previous status quo, albeit with the realization that China,
among others, are increasingly high hostile trading partners.
Speaker 3 (12:01):
In any event, we can hold if we can hold
Speaker 1 (12:04):
Energy prices near where they are today are lower Biden
inflation will finally be dead