August 5, 2025 • 13 mins
If you were wrong or failed at 40% of your work how long would you remain employed?
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:04):
Welcome to the Brian Mud Show. Thanks for listening. Fashion
Buss talent is unstoppable. It's time for today's Top three takeaways.
Speaker 2 (00:14):
Colin bs on the BLS an incumbency isn't what it
used to be. My top three takeaways for you before
we dive in though, and updates that it looks like
Attorney General Pambondi is going to try to move the
needle on Trump Rushy collusion.
Speaker 3 (00:33):
Attorney General Pambondi is personally ordering a federal prosecutor to
present evidence to a grand jury alleging a conspiracy to
tie the twenty sixteen Trump campaign to Russia. That's according
to a source familiar with the investigation.
Speaker 1 (00:46):
To our Justice Department team.
Speaker 3 (00:48):
DOJ declined comment, it is unclear which prosecutor will handle
the case, where the grand jury will meet, who will testify,
or who prosecutors would try to indict. Week and a
half ago, the Department announced it had created a strike
force to evaluate these allegations. Part of information Director of
National Intelligence Tulca Gabbard referred to DOJ.
Speaker 2 (01:11):
Well, see, you know, I mentioned that it's possible that
Bondie gets tough on this, in particular because she has
not exactly engendered a lot of confidence among even those
on the right based upon her performance handling the Epstein files,
among other things.
Speaker 1 (01:27):
So far.
Speaker 2 (01:29):
If the jurisdiction is DC, it's still an implausible seeing
how you could get to convictions. But the one thing
I will say that is particularly interesting, especially if she
finds a way to get to a different jurisdiction, which
would be then now we need to do pretty much
a one eighty and what Ed said previously, I would
like to be wrong on this, by the way, but
the grand jury, you know, happenings almost always lead to indictments.
(01:56):
It's very rare that you have and paneled grand juries
and you don't get something out of it. Yeah, we'll
see now. My top takeaway today is the year was
and rock and roll jowels all over this.
Speaker 1 (02:07):
He redeemed himself.
Speaker 2 (02:09):
You know, it kind of makes sense that Wilson Phillips
would be your go to.
Speaker 4 (02:12):
Wait, why, I'm not even a fan really, Yeah.
Speaker 1 (02:15):
But you got it.
Speaker 2 (02:16):
You got so all I needed to give Joel for
this one was hold On by Wilson Phillips was the
top song of the year.
Speaker 4 (02:23):
Yeah, nineteen ninety, you're right, The year was nineteen ninety.
Speaker 1 (02:28):
You can do a better Casey than that?
Speaker 5 (02:30):
Was it really Casey? I guess it was similar. Yeah,
it was kind of like just the typical.
Speaker 2 (02:35):
He used to actually be able to do a credible one.
I haven't tried in twenty years, and give it a shot.
It's gonna go poorly. I have to try to remember
what he sounded like.
Speaker 4 (02:43):
Does that stop me?
Speaker 1 (02:45):
That's true?
Speaker 2 (02:49):
So yeah, hold On by Wilson Phillips. The top song
Millie than Nilly exposed as a fraud. The Hubble Space
telescope was launched. Elon Musk was ninety team, the World
Wide Web was created, the Berlin Wall came down, Operations
Operation Dessert Shield took place.
Speaker 1 (03:12):
That's an incredible year.
Speaker 2 (03:13):
You start taking a look at what happened in ninety,
it's like, wow, that was a big year, and not.
Speaker 1 (03:19):
Because of Wilson Phillips.
Speaker 5 (03:20):
And I just realized I have two years on Elon Musk,
and what if I know with my life.
Speaker 2 (03:25):
Well, I mean, in fairness to you, that's basically anybody
of any age when you're talking about Elon. But kind
of an extreme example there, But so you know what
else took place in nineteen ninety that is particularly relevant
to current news. Happens to be the last time that
the Bureau of Labor Statistics meaningfully changed the way they
(03:46):
collect information for their monthly Jobs Report. The whole reason
I wanted to illustrate one went down in nineteen ninety
and just kind of paint the picture of how long
ago that was. It was the last time the BLS
really did anything significant to try to update your organization
and the way they go about their general methodology for
(04:07):
collecting data that they report to you. By the way,
the methodology that they use was put in place in
nineteen eighty four, So yes, that's right. The Bureau of
Labor Statistics has been using call out data as part
of its data collection methods for the Current Employment Statistics Survey,
which produces the monthly Jobs Report since nineteen eighty four,
(04:29):
with the introduction of computer assisted telephone interviewing in nineteen ninety,
which involves calling businesses to collect employment hours in earnings data. Now,
if you were trying to do the job you do
today with the methods and technology of nineteen ninety, how
effective would you be?
Speaker 1 (04:50):
How would that work out for you?
Speaker 2 (04:54):
By the way, I did a little research on this
because when I got there, I'm like, you know what I.
Speaker 1 (04:58):
Should have answers?
Speaker 2 (04:59):
Right, I should have the end So I did research
on how many jobs are effectively the same today as
in nineteen ninety where there haven't been core changes to
the way you go about performing the job with the
use of technology. Other things, the high end estment of
the number of jobs that still exist that have not
been meaningfully impacted three percent three percent, and a fun
(05:24):
fact or facts.
Speaker 1 (05:26):
I guess that's the case.
Speaker 2 (05:27):
Man, Do you know what two professions are the least
likely to be impacted by technology over the past thirty
five years?
Speaker 1 (05:38):
Joel has the look of determination on his face.
Speaker 5 (05:40):
I had a guess like mortician, which is pretty good.
Speaker 2 (05:45):
I don't think there have probably been a ton of
changes in that it didn't come out right at the
top of the list. I'm sure it's part of the
three percent, though that'd be so I think it's pretty good.
The two that are are virtually unchanged in most instances
local life music, local live music, and janitorial work. There
(06:06):
you go, he got some nicer plungers don't like back
in Nightvy anyway. Speaking of flushing, that's the reason for
my top takeaway today the recent decision by the Trump
administration to flush the head statistician at the Bureau of
Labor Statistics.
Speaker 1 (06:24):
As was noted by Team Trump.
Speaker 2 (06:27):
When accounting for revisions, the average air rate and the
BLS's initial reporting has averaged forty percent. And as I
was asking yesterday, if you were wrong, or if you
failed at forty percent of your work, how long would
you remain employed? But because it's the GSS news media
(06:50):
and it's President Trump, headlines like this from CNBC persists
Trump stokes conspiracies about job data as White House defend
inspiring BLS chief. So my second takeaway for you today
is the idea that a forty percent failure rate supposed
to be an acceptable thing.
Speaker 1 (07:11):
Look at Joel's face is like.
Speaker 5 (07:13):
Well, I mean you're talking about the news media.
Speaker 4 (07:18):
Well, not more than acceptable for them, right, all right?
Was that yesterday?
Speaker 2 (07:21):
That's what we determined yesterday, was that those two areas
if you're a leftist news reporter or meteorologist, perhaps we
still nailed down that employment at that rate. So on
this note here you have a report by Fox's Lucas Tomlinson.
Speaker 6 (07:38):
Trump's top economic advisor, Kevin Hassett, saying he had to
be fired because of the numbers, not just the seventy
three thousand slower than expected jobs growth, but the hundreds
of thousands of jobs that was reduced thanks to this
report back in May and June.
Speaker 3 (07:53):
When I first saw the big revisions, which by the way,
were the largest provisions going.
Speaker 2 (07:57):
All the way back for fifty years if we exclude
the COVID years. Yeah, so fifty year failure kind of
rate here, I mean, as bad as the job has
been done in fifty years. Forty percent average failure rate.
And that's just supposed to be cool. I mean, who
is it that defends this or goes to I mean
(08:18):
my thing is, why wouldn't they have resigned somewhere along
when you have some kind of priding your work. You
are doing the job the worst it has been done
in the fifty year history. And it's that going to better.
It's only getting worse. You keep going to work every day.
Here are some numbers this month. What seriously, how it
(08:41):
is absolutely indefensible anybody that wants to defend the BLSA.
Speaker 1 (08:45):
Who Trump fired the b a whisper.
Speaker 2 (08:48):
Go fly a freaking kite? You forty percent failure. Joel
enjoyed that as I addressed in the Q and A
from over three three years ago in addressing significant differences
in reporting between the monthly ADP report and the BLS's
Jobs report. The BLS figures include government jobs that are
(09:10):
not factored into the ad P report, so if all
other factors were equal, there would always be unnatural variance
to a certain extent due to the government reporting factoring
in government jobs. Public sector employment does account for about
fifteen percent of all US employment, so therefore variances in
the neighborhood of fifteen percent or so between the two
(09:31):
reports to be explainable. However, as for methodology, EIGHTYP processes
the HR and Perroal data for over fourteen percent of
Americans in the workforce. They're far and away the leader
in payroll processing, which is why they produced the monthly
reporting that is used by economists to gauge real time
conditions and employment. The starting point for the ADP report
(09:54):
actual data covering a sixth of the entire US employment pool.
Moodies then uses the data taken into account sector and
regional variances to project the uverall job changes monthly. The
BLS uses call out surveys that is then used to
project a result. And so it's for this reason that
the initial reporting by the BLS has commonly proved unreliable
(10:16):
independent of other factors, because rather than starting with actual data,
hard data, they're using estimates provided by HR professionals about
changes within their organization. So if the HR professionals provide
incorrect estimates to the government, you get the garbage in
garbage out effect. The BLS's methodology is analogous to political pulling.
(10:39):
It's a sample and done well, it can be highly accurate. However,
there's inherently a margin of error prior to even projections
that is not present within the ADP report. Okay, so that,
in a nutshell is what goes on here. The federal
government has still been doing things as though it was
nineteen ninety. The biggest issue with the previous BLS chief
(10:59):
was a lack of mine modernizing the data collected and
projected by the agency. And that is not a conspiracy,
but it is a typical way that the government functions.
They just continue to do things at a kind of
a failing way for as long as they seemingly can.
It's unfortunate, but that's the reality. My third takeaway for
you today, switching gears a bit. Incumbency isn't what it
(11:22):
used to be. Before getting into this, take a look
at what's going on in Texas with the Democrats that
fled to Chicago.
Speaker 1 (11:31):
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, this.
Speaker 2 (11:34):
Idea possibly knocking him out of office.
Speaker 1 (11:36):
We're looking at that right now and we are likely
to pursue that.
Speaker 2 (11:40):
Yeah, so could we have fifty one fire Democrats in Texas?
That'd be interesting. One thing is certain with the current
mess in Texas, what does or doesn't happen there won't
be staying there. That's true of the Democrats who fled
to the sanctuary city of Chicago to attempt to prevent
a special session to take up redistricting. It's true if
Governor Greg Gabbott and Republicans in Texas are successful and
(12:02):
redistricting that could result to potentially five more GOP seats.
But while we wait and watch, what will or won't
be With the prospect of the governor potentially removing fifty
one elected Democrats from office, maybe arresting them too, that
would be quite the thing.
Speaker 1 (12:17):
Anyway.
Speaker 2 (12:17):
While digging into the implications of Texas's redistricting thing, which
does hold the potential to impact which party has control
of the House of Representatives next Congress. I found this
incumbency just isn't what it u would be on average.
In the twenty twenty four election cycle. How big of
a benefit do you think incumbency proved to be? The
(12:38):
answer was only one point one percent. That was what
the advantage was down to. That is the lowest in
US history. Earlier in the century, that advantage had peaked
at seven point seven percent, and it's been on the
descent ever since. So what this means is that even
a little redistricting connets some big changes. That's true in
(12:58):
Texas and in four if we happen to go there too,
as Governor DeSantis seemingly wants to do so, stay tuned
Welcome to the Brian Mud Show. Thanks for listening. Fashion
Buss talent is unstoppable. It's time for today's Top three takeaways.
Speaker 2 (00:14):
Colin bs on the BLS an incumbency isn't what it
used to be. My top three takeaways for you before
we dive in though, and updates that it looks like
Attorney General Pambondi is going to try to move the
needle on Trump Rushy collusion.
Speaker 3 (00:33):
Attorney General Pambondi is personally ordering a federal prosecutor to
present evidence to a grand jury alleging a conspiracy to
tie the twenty sixteen Trump campaign to Russia. That's according
to a source familiar with the investigation.
Speaker 1 (00:46):
To our Justice Department team.
Speaker 3 (00:48):
DOJ declined comment, it is unclear which prosecutor will handle
the case, where the grand jury will meet, who will testify,
or who prosecutors would try to indict. Week and a
half ago, the Department announced it had created a strike
force to evaluate these allegations. Part of information Director of
National Intelligence Tulca Gabbard referred to DOJ.
Speaker 2 (01:11):
Well, see, you know, I mentioned that it's possible that
Bondie gets tough on this, in particular because she has
not exactly engendered a lot of confidence among even those
on the right based upon her performance handling the Epstein files,
among other things.
Speaker 1 (01:27):
So far.
Speaker 2 (01:29):
If the jurisdiction is DC, it's still an implausible seeing
how you could get to convictions. But the one thing
I will say that is particularly interesting, especially if she
finds a way to get to a different jurisdiction, which
would be then now we need to do pretty much
a one eighty and what Ed said previously, I would
like to be wrong on this, by the way, but
the grand jury, you know, happenings almost always lead to indictments.
(01:56):
It's very rare that you have and paneled grand juries
and you don't get something out of it. Yeah, we'll
see now. My top takeaway today is the year was
and rock and roll jowels all over this.
Speaker 1 (02:07):
He redeemed himself.
Speaker 2 (02:09):
You know, it kind of makes sense that Wilson Phillips
would be your go to.
Speaker 4 (02:12):
Wait, why, I'm not even a fan really, Yeah.
Speaker 1 (02:15):
But you got it.
Speaker 2 (02:16):
You got so all I needed to give Joel for
this one was hold On by Wilson Phillips was the
top song of the year.
Speaker 4 (02:23):
Yeah, nineteen ninety, you're right, The year was nineteen ninety.
Speaker 1 (02:28):
You can do a better Casey than that?
Speaker 5 (02:30):
Was it really Casey? I guess it was similar. Yeah,
it was kind of like just the typical.
Speaker 2 (02:35):
He used to actually be able to do a credible one.
I haven't tried in twenty years, and give it a shot.
It's gonna go poorly. I have to try to remember
what he sounded like.
Speaker 4 (02:43):
Does that stop me?
Speaker 1 (02:45):
That's true?
Speaker 2 (02:49):
So yeah, hold On by Wilson Phillips. The top song
Millie than Nilly exposed as a fraud. The Hubble Space
telescope was launched. Elon Musk was ninety team, the World
Wide Web was created, the Berlin Wall came down, Operations
Operation Dessert Shield took place.
Speaker 1 (03:12):
That's an incredible year.
Speaker 2 (03:13):
You start taking a look at what happened in ninety,
it's like, wow, that was a big year, and not.
Speaker 1 (03:19):
Because of Wilson Phillips.
Speaker 5 (03:20):
And I just realized I have two years on Elon Musk,
and what if I know with my life.
Speaker 2 (03:25):
Well, I mean, in fairness to you, that's basically anybody
of any age when you're talking about Elon. But kind
of an extreme example there, But so you know what
else took place in nineteen ninety that is particularly relevant
to current news. Happens to be the last time that
the Bureau of Labor Statistics meaningfully changed the way they
(03:46):
collect information for their monthly Jobs Report. The whole reason
I wanted to illustrate one went down in nineteen ninety
and just kind of paint the picture of how long
ago that was. It was the last time the BLS
really did anything significant to try to update your organization
and the way they go about their general methodology for
(04:07):
collecting data that they report to you. By the way,
the methodology that they use was put in place in
nineteen eighty four, So yes, that's right. The Bureau of
Labor Statistics has been using call out data as part
of its data collection methods for the Current Employment Statistics Survey,
which produces the monthly Jobs Report since nineteen eighty four,
(04:29):
with the introduction of computer assisted telephone interviewing in nineteen ninety,
which involves calling businesses to collect employment hours in earnings data. Now,
if you were trying to do the job you do
today with the methods and technology of nineteen ninety, how
effective would you be?
Speaker 1 (04:50):
How would that work out for you?
Speaker 2 (04:54):
By the way, I did a little research on this
because when I got there, I'm like, you know what I.
Speaker 1 (04:58):
Should have answers?
Speaker 2 (04:59):
Right, I should have the end So I did research
on how many jobs are effectively the same today as
in nineteen ninety where there haven't been core changes to
the way you go about performing the job with the
use of technology. Other things, the high end estment of
the number of jobs that still exist that have not
been meaningfully impacted three percent three percent, and a fun
(05:24):
fact or facts.
Speaker 1 (05:26):
I guess that's the case.
Speaker 2 (05:27):
Man, Do you know what two professions are the least
likely to be impacted by technology over the past thirty
five years?
Speaker 1 (05:38):
Joel has the look of determination on his face.
Speaker 5 (05:40):
I had a guess like mortician, which is pretty good.
Speaker 2 (05:45):
I don't think there have probably been a ton of
changes in that it didn't come out right at the
top of the list. I'm sure it's part of the
three percent, though that'd be so I think it's pretty good.
The two that are are virtually unchanged in most instances
local life music, local live music, and janitorial work. There
(06:06):
you go, he got some nicer plungers don't like back
in Nightvy anyway. Speaking of flushing, that's the reason for
my top takeaway today the recent decision by the Trump
administration to flush the head statistician at the Bureau of
Labor Statistics.
Speaker 1 (06:24):
As was noted by Team Trump.
Speaker 2 (06:27):
When accounting for revisions, the average air rate and the
BLS's initial reporting has averaged forty percent. And as I
was asking yesterday, if you were wrong, or if you
failed at forty percent of your work, how long would
you remain employed? But because it's the GSS news media
(06:50):
and it's President Trump, headlines like this from CNBC persists
Trump stokes conspiracies about job data as White House defend
inspiring BLS chief. So my second takeaway for you today
is the idea that a forty percent failure rate supposed
to be an acceptable thing.
Speaker 1 (07:11):
Look at Joel's face is like.
Speaker 5 (07:13):
Well, I mean you're talking about the news media.
Speaker 4 (07:18):
Well, not more than acceptable for them, right, all right?
Was that yesterday?
Speaker 2 (07:21):
That's what we determined yesterday, was that those two areas
if you're a leftist news reporter or meteorologist, perhaps we
still nailed down that employment at that rate. So on
this note here you have a report by Fox's Lucas Tomlinson.
Speaker 6 (07:38):
Trump's top economic advisor, Kevin Hassett, saying he had to
be fired because of the numbers, not just the seventy
three thousand slower than expected jobs growth, but the hundreds
of thousands of jobs that was reduced thanks to this
report back in May and June.
Speaker 3 (07:53):
When I first saw the big revisions, which by the way,
were the largest provisions going.
Speaker 2 (07:57):
All the way back for fifty years if we exclude
the COVID years. Yeah, so fifty year failure kind of
rate here, I mean, as bad as the job has
been done in fifty years. Forty percent average failure rate.
And that's just supposed to be cool. I mean, who
is it that defends this or goes to I mean
(08:18):
my thing is, why wouldn't they have resigned somewhere along
when you have some kind of priding your work. You
are doing the job the worst it has been done
in the fifty year history. And it's that going to better.
It's only getting worse. You keep going to work every day.
Here are some numbers this month. What seriously, how it
(08:41):
is absolutely indefensible anybody that wants to defend the BLSA.
Speaker 1 (08:45):
Who Trump fired the b a whisper.
Speaker 2 (08:48):
Go fly a freaking kite? You forty percent failure. Joel
enjoyed that as I addressed in the Q and A
from over three three years ago in addressing significant differences
in reporting between the monthly ADP report and the BLS's
Jobs report. The BLS figures include government jobs that are
(09:10):
not factored into the ad P report, so if all
other factors were equal, there would always be unnatural variance
to a certain extent due to the government reporting factoring
in government jobs. Public sector employment does account for about
fifteen percent of all US employment, so therefore variances in
the neighborhood of fifteen percent or so between the two
(09:31):
reports to be explainable. However, as for methodology, EIGHTYP processes
the HR and Perroal data for over fourteen percent of
Americans in the workforce. They're far and away the leader
in payroll processing, which is why they produced the monthly
reporting that is used by economists to gauge real time
conditions and employment. The starting point for the ADP report
(09:54):
actual data covering a sixth of the entire US employment pool.
Moodies then uses the data taken into account sector and
regional variances to project the uverall job changes monthly. The
BLS uses call out surveys that is then used to
project a result. And so it's for this reason that
the initial reporting by the BLS has commonly proved unreliable
(10:16):
independent of other factors, because rather than starting with actual data,
hard data, they're using estimates provided by HR professionals about
changes within their organization. So if the HR professionals provide
incorrect estimates to the government, you get the garbage in
garbage out effect. The BLS's methodology is analogous to political pulling.
(10:39):
It's a sample and done well, it can be highly accurate. However,
there's inherently a margin of error prior to even projections
that is not present within the ADP report. Okay, so that,
in a nutshell is what goes on here. The federal
government has still been doing things as though it was
nineteen ninety. The biggest issue with the previous BLS chief
(10:59):
was a lack of mine modernizing the data collected and
projected by the agency. And that is not a conspiracy,
but it is a typical way that the government functions.
They just continue to do things at a kind of
a failing way for as long as they seemingly can.
It's unfortunate, but that's the reality. My third takeaway for
you today, switching gears a bit. Incumbency isn't what it
(11:22):
used to be. Before getting into this, take a look
at what's going on in Texas with the Democrats that
fled to Chicago.
Speaker 1 (11:31):
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, this.
Speaker 2 (11:34):
Idea possibly knocking him out of office.
Speaker 1 (11:36):
We're looking at that right now and we are likely
to pursue that.
Speaker 2 (11:40):
Yeah, so could we have fifty one fire Democrats in Texas?
That'd be interesting. One thing is certain with the current
mess in Texas, what does or doesn't happen there won't
be staying there. That's true of the Democrats who fled
to the sanctuary city of Chicago to attempt to prevent
a special session to take up redistricting. It's true if
Governor Greg Gabbott and Republicans in Texas are successful and
(12:02):
redistricting that could result to potentially five more GOP seats.
But while we wait and watch, what will or won't
be With the prospect of the governor potentially removing fifty
one elected Democrats from office, maybe arresting them too, that
would be quite the thing.
Speaker 1 (12:17):
Anyway.
Speaker 2 (12:17):
While digging into the implications of Texas's redistricting thing, which
does hold the potential to impact which party has control
of the House of Representatives next Congress. I found this
incumbency just isn't what it u would be on average.
In the twenty twenty four election cycle. How big of
a benefit do you think incumbency proved to be? The
(12:38):
answer was only one point one percent. That was what
the advantage was down to. That is the lowest in
US history. Earlier in the century, that advantage had peaked
at seven point seven percent, and it's been on the
descent ever since. So what this means is that even
a little redistricting connets some big changes. That's true in
(12:58):
Texas and in four if we happen to go there too,
as Governor DeSantis seemingly wants to do so, stay tuned
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