CPI Defy’s Econmists, Florida’s New Lt. Gov & DOGEing PBC – Top 3 Takeaways

President Trump increasingly looks correct when he suggests Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and the Fed at large is “Too Late” when it comes to lower interest rates.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:04):
Welcome to the Brian Munt Show, and thank you for listening.
It's time for today's Top three takeaways. Helpful, useful, repeatable,
CPI defies, economist, Florida's new lieutenantgov. And Dojing PBC My
top three takeaways for you all this Wednesday, and my

(00:24):
top one is yeah, CPI defies yet again. What I'm
getting ready to play for you is an extremely important point. Actually,
this single biggest point when it comes to consumer inflation.
It is from Stephen Myron. He's the chair of the
Council of Economic Advisors.

Speaker 2 (00:46):
Consumer price inflation is running at a one point nine
percent annualized rate since the President took office. And that's
an example of the effects of the president's profoundly disinflationary
policies of deregulation, border control, energy abundance, and tax and sentences,
aboust capital stuff. That's all very powerful in bringing down inflation,
and you're seeing it start.

Speaker 1 (01:04):
To work, right, Yes, all of it. But did you
notice where he started? The inflation rate since Trump became
president is one point nine percent? One point nine What

(01:27):
is the rate that the FED says is the target,
like we want to get there, and that's good. The
number happens to be two percent. Two percent. So let
me walk you down this path a little bit for
a moment. We have had consumer inflation reports for six

(01:50):
complete months of Trump's current term. Economists have been right
about the anticipated inflation rate in one of them, one
ver six, and it wasn't. The Consumer Price Index report
from yesterday. Yesterday's CPI release showed that the consumer inflation

(02:14):
rate was flat last month. They expected it to go higher,
yet again, he remained at two point seven percent, down
from three percent at the start at Trump's presidency. However,
that two point seven percent includes six months of Biden
inflation and six months of Trump's policy. If you only

(02:39):
take a look at Trump's policy, the inflation rate is
one point nine percent and his months so far. So
what does that tell you? Now? Economists whose accuracy rates
I thought for a moment might be in competition with
Biden's ls. But upon further review, you know, I took

(03:03):
another look at the blind squirrels locating nuts thing, and
I determined that I have complete confidence and the blind
squirrel to have more success than these freaking economists, because
the blind squirrel blind squirrel can use its nose right
he's gonna find some nuts. It's hungry, it's sniffing around,
it's gonna get on some stuff. These economists, oh no,

(03:28):
they're no saving. They're horrible, horrible estimates. They have managed
to overestimate the anticipated consumer inflation rate yet again, and
that's been the trend. See Interestingly, in each of the
five reports, Wall Street economists have missed their estimates, They've

(03:51):
incorrectly called for the consumer inflation rate to be higher
than it's actually been. Now, I mean, call me crazy.
One might think that if you're going to be wrong
over eighty three percent of the time, you gotta do

(04:13):
anything Differently. If you're wrong over eighty three percent of
the time, one, I think you should consider a new profession.
I don't think you are good at what you do
this just and if you fail over eighty three percent
of the time what you do, probably time for something different. Two.

(04:36):
If on the off chance you don't self deport from
your current position, you should be introduced to a new profession.
No one who fails eighty three percent of the time
should remain in that job. There's no job that you
can point to like if you're the blind squirrel thing,

(04:56):
if the blind squirrels outperforming you time to go. That
should be the thing. The example I've used this morning.
It's like baseball. You know, baseball hitting has been used
as a barometer for being able to be successful while
failing most of the time. Good batting average three hundred, nobody,

(05:21):
nobody is employed. A one seventy. Nobody has a job
hitting one seventy can't. Can't do that. So that is
the batting average of your Wall Street economists. Seventeen percent.
That's routing up. That's the generous number. T one sixty
seven to be exacked three if still employed, somewhat remarkably,

(05:47):
meaning you didn't leave up your own accord and you
haven't been fired, as these people haven't been. By the way,
Trump did call on Goldman Sacks to fire its chief
economists yesterday. I don't know, I don't just maybe calculate
things differently. If you're wrong over eighty three percent of time,

(06:09):
and you've been wrong in the same direction every single time,
when do you think that, maybe you go hold on,
maybe I'm doing something wrong here, Maybe I should I
don't see why I keep going higher and bring this
in a little bit and the ultimate indictment of the

(06:30):
economy assessments. Not only do they manage to miss their
mark most of the time, but always managing to overestimate
the inflation rate every single time they've been wrong. You
know what's even more fascinating about this, Joel, what did
we hear for the first nine months of Biden inflation

(06:52):
that it was a word, it was so temporary. Yeah,
So they underestimated Biden inflation every single month, and they
have over estimated inflation under Trump all but one month.

(07:12):
Is this a coincidence? Perhaps? Perhaps? Perhaps so. The reason
this matters, it's not even about the politics of it.

(07:33):
You know, Trump gets the shaft and gets all kinds
of nonsense, and what every single day. The politics is
the politics, He can handle it. What stings about this
is you're the one being screwed. You're the one being screwed.
Do you want lower mortgage rates? Do you want lower
auto loan rates? Do you want lower credit card interest rates?

(07:54):
Do you want to lower costs anytime you need to
borrow money? Of course you do. Are you getting that? No? Why?
Because their failed estimates, their proclivity to be wrong over
eighty three percent of the time is used as the
justification not to cut rates. So one month ago, the

(08:16):
market price in a fifty seven percent likelihood of cutting
interest rates next month. That is up to ninety four
percent today. What changed, not inflation. President Trump increasingly looks
correct when he suggests Federal Reserve Chairman Drome Powell and
the Fed at large is too late and too wrong
when it comes to lower interest rates. They've also been

(08:39):
dead wrong today about the impact of the President's tariff policy. Now,
despite all the tariffs Trump has put into place, inflation
remains lower today than he when he became President of
the United States, and way lower even still what it
has been over the past twelve months when you only

(09:01):
take into account his policy. My second tegaway for you
today ground Chuck and the Goat, Ground Chuck and the Goat.
This happened yesterday.

Speaker 3 (09:11):
Senator Jay Collins is the Chuck Norris of Florida politics,
and I am proud to announce today that I am
appointing him to be the next Lieutenant Governor of the
Free State of Florida.

Speaker 1 (09:24):
Here you go, so the way of the Dragon, the
Hitman Walker Texas Ranger. So no, Chuck Norris not the
next Lieutenant governor of Florida. But the man that DeSantis
says is the check Norris of Florida is Jay Collins,
a retired Green Beret, Purple Heart and broadn Star recipient
who lost a leg in action, and who had been
serving as state Senator until yesterday now upon beings worn

(09:46):
into replace shed At Nunez, who'd vacated the space early
this year to become the president of FIU. Collins had
this to say. He said, I'm truly honored to be
appointed by the governor, not just any governor, Florida's governor,
America's governor, the goat. He's the goat to help him
finish the mission and keep Florida strong. Okay. So, Colin's

(10:07):
signature and legislation within the state was the twenty twenty
three law banning countries of concern Allah, China, and Russia
from owning land within twenty miles of military basis and
critical infrastructure across the state. Collins was also notably involved
in Florida's evacuations of America's Americans trapped in Israel during
the recent Israel Iran War, and aside from his qualifications,

(10:30):
there are two interesting dynamics potentially in play. With Collins
joining the freight. He's a strong proponent of Governor DeSantis's
plan to end property taxes in the state, and he's
been previously rumored as a potential cabedatorial candidate. Notably, Casey Desantas,
whom many have expected to run for governor, hasn't announced
a campaign, and while President Trump has backed Congressman Byron Donalds,

(10:52):
but Donalds does im back DeSantis' property tax plan, which,
by the way, on a personal note, I think is
a massive failing of donald Donald's that position of his
I am strongly at odds with Collins could simply be
a choice to ride out the final year and a
half with DeSantis, or he could be positioning for bigger things.

(11:15):
My third takeaway for you today Doge coming to PBC
as the case happened to be. It was only a
day after my analysis on local county's last week that
Flora's Doese team contacted Palm Beach County. As said in
my summation, Indian River and Saint Lucy are spending less
on an inflation and population adjusted basis than they were

(11:36):
five years ago. Martin County has grown the size of
its government relative to its population by eight percent in
Palm Beach County by an especially significant fifteen percent. So
I'll say again, especially in the light of these findings,
doju please and dojus they will next week. PBC will
indeed undergo some dozing. Now. I dug in yesterday to

(11:58):
take a look some of these specific areas of interest,
and it's what they're looking at specifically pretty interesting. So
they want to know the Florida DOGE team, how the
large contracts have been procured, compensation levels for accounting employees
with specific additional requests for all that make over two

(12:19):
hundred thousand a year. They want to know about the
Department of Young Services, the Office of Resilience, the Office
of Community Revitalization, and the Office of Community Services. There
are questions about management practices, DEI related positions and policies,
Green New Deal adopted policies, the issuance of grants, administration

(12:39):
of transportation, and homeless services. Specifically on those last two,
how much money has been spent on related services and
to whom. Now, none of this means anyone has necessarily
done anything wrong. It's also not a guarantee of outcomes
with any of the specific areas of interest either. But
what there is is a demand for an accounting and
accountability about how county services are operating and how effective

(13:04):
they happen to be. Bobbach County's property tax burden, the
third highest in the state and adjusted for the income
of its residents, has a total tax burden that has
hired the ninety five percent of the country. So with
the net inflation adjusted growth of the county's government spending
having increased by fifteen percent above population growth within just

(13:25):
the past five years, I'd say there is a lot
that is worth looking into here.