July 31, 2025 • 13 mins
The GDP Report on Wednesday was about as good as anyone including President Trump could have hoped for it to be. Not only did the 3% growth rate blow away Wall Street expectations (2.3%), and even the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s recently elevated expectations (2.9%), it also came with the added bonus of significantly less consumer inflation.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:04):
Welcome to the Brian Mud Show. Thanks for listening. Fashion
plus talent is unstoppable. It's time for today's Top three takeaways. Yeah,
Happy Thursdays.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
We close out July already econ course correction, Trump's reaction
and saving rays My top three takeaways for you today.
Starting with the course correction, we started the day with
this economic news yesterday.
Speaker 1 (00:32):
The gross domestic product expanded at a three percent pace
in the second quarter. The increase for the spring is
stronger than expected.
Speaker 2 (00:40):
There is just something, I mean when you hear gross
domestic products, what comes to mind?
Speaker 1 (00:44):
Jel.
Speaker 2 (00:46):
I mean, I.
Speaker 3 (00:47):
Hadn't really given it a thought until about an hour ago,
and you you said, what comes to mind for you? Well, no,
it wasn't me, no, but now it does because you
heard I had never heard that. Our old, our old
friend Seawan McGuire saying that it sounded like what's something
in a child's um diaper?
Speaker 2 (01:04):
Perhaps, yes, he said, When I think of gross domestic product,
I think of I think it wasn't a diaper.
Speaker 1 (01:10):
I never thought of it.
Speaker 2 (01:11):
I've never been able to get that out of my
brain since now I won't. But the other thing is,
it's just like in the grand scheme of the way
that you can say, you know, certain economic stuff to
make it sound even wonkier than it needs to be.
It's like gross domestic product that is up there, just
kind of like in the GDP is Yeah, I'm down
with GDP. Yeah, so very good. It does roll off
(01:34):
the tongue more than so. The GDP report, on winds say,
was about as good as anyone, including President Trump, could
have hoped for it to be. Not only did the
three percent growth rate blow away Wall Street expectations, not
any diapers that aware, but just blew away Wall Street's expectations.
Wall Street had expected two point three percent growth for
(01:57):
the second quarter, and even the Atlanta federally recently elevated
expectations were outdone. They came in a two point nine
percent their final revision, something I mentioned, and yesterday's report
also came with the added bonus of significantly less consumer inflation.
This is an extremely important point that I haven't seen
(02:19):
gain much traction or attention, but is huge going forward.
As I mentioned on May first, after the first quarter
GDP report showed negative economic growth, I said, the way
that GDP is calculated is a wonky thing, and without
getting into too much wonkiness, it's like this, imports are
(02:41):
subtracted from GDP growth, meaning the more imports the country has,
the lower the GDP growth. In other words, if all
other things are equal, importing more stuff leads to negative GDP,
but it doesn't actually mean that the economy in the
real world is shrinking. And that's almost entirely what's to
blame for what made headlines for a negative first quarter
(03:02):
economy Anticipating future taroffs, businesses imported stuff at an unprecedented
rate in the first quarter. And on that note, what
we saw was a course correction with a decrease in
imports in the second quarter, following the buildup inventories in
the first, which aided GDP growth this time around. So
(03:24):
here is the bottom line in all this. It's not
the case that the economy was bad in the first quarter.
Speaker 1 (03:32):
And great in the second quarter. That's not what happened here.
Speaker 2 (03:35):
Instead, it's been a steady grower throughout the first half
of the year. It's precisely what I projected what happened
three months ago, and most encouraging within the report, I
mentioned the significant decline in one of the most important
inflation metrics. It's not the only one. You know, You've
got the CPI with the consumer Price Index, that's hugely important,
(03:59):
but actually you have the personal consumption expenditures price index.
Personal consumption expenditures price index doesn't evoke the same imagery
as say the gross domestic product, but it is another
wonky kind of sounding thing, right, it's better known as
(04:21):
the PCE. You down with the PCE, sure, you know me, okay,
But the one person who is absolutely absolutely down with
the PCE. Too late, too late, drone pal, as the
President refers to him. Yeah, the Federal Reserve Chair loves
the PCE. In fact, it's the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation measure.
(04:44):
Like if they are just going to take one number
to judge inflation, this would be the one. And it
happened to fall from three point seven percent in the
first quarter to two point one percent in the second quarter,
and that dropped the overall annualized rate for inflation through
this metric to two and a half percent. When was
last time the PCE average two and a half percent
(05:07):
last December? So what this means is that in the
real world, cost of buying things through the first six
months of the second Trump presidency, the inflation rate was unchanged.
There was no change despite Trump's imposition of tariffs. Now,
of course, the questions are these, will inflation rise as
(05:29):
imports and inventories normalize in the third quarter that we're
in now, and will Friday's liberation day two point zero
terra's for countries without trade deals in place, it's not
going to prove to be a big deal. So with
these questions outstanding, and with the inflation rates still above
the Federal reserves two percent target rate, it was no
(05:52):
surprise to see that the Federal Reserve, led by none
other than too Late drum Powell, left interest rates on changed.
On that note, here is the FET chair announcing the decision.
Speaker 1 (06:06):
He can support of our goals.
Speaker 3 (06:07):
Today the Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave our
policy interest rate unchanged.
Speaker 1 (06:13):
Notice he said their goals definitely not Trump's goal.
Speaker 2 (06:15):
It was definitely not what Trump was looking for after
the very public pressure campaign, including the visit to too
Late in the FED last Thursday. So, anyway, what was
interesting my second takeaway today, Silence is Golden say, very interesting.
(06:38):
What didn't happen yesterday? So after the GDP report was released,
at a thirty President Trump had this to say, he
trooped second quarter GDP just out three percent, way better
than expected.
Speaker 1 (06:51):
Too late, must now lower the rate.
Speaker 2 (06:54):
I like that. It's like a campaign slogan, too late,
must now lower the rate. You even turn that into
like rap song or something. No inflation, let people buy
and refinance their homes. So when the Fed opted not
to lower interest rates, the message was this.
Speaker 3 (07:16):
Nothing nothing, and that stands. I'm looking right now at
his uh yeah, true social student.
Speaker 2 (07:22):
Never sounded He sounded off on a lot of stuff yesterday,
including a lot of things after two did not sound
never once mentioned the Fed, never once mentioned interest rates
after that post, after the GDP report, first thing yesterday.
Speaker 3 (07:37):
And he's up in truth thing this morning.
Speaker 2 (07:39):
But uh very it's a very Interestino mission here. It's
very uncharacteristic for El presidente. So speaking about some of
the other stuff that he did sound off on yesterday,
Trump made it clearer now like tomorrow, you know, August first,
that's a real deadline and trade. His first message about
(08:01):
that yesterday was this, he said, the August first deadline
is the August first deadline. It's stands strong and will
not be extended. A big day for America. Lots of
exclamation points. His second message was this August first, a
great day for America. Lots of exclamation points. This is
very reminiscent of Liberation Day when he was heading into it.
(08:24):
So yeah, get ready for Liberation Day two point zero tomorrow.
The President also announced a new trade deal with South
Korea yesterday. He had tough works for Canada and India
and actually Senator Josh Holling as well, but was surprisingly
quiet yesterday on the topic of the interest rates, so
as expected with the Fed did not do anything, meaning
(08:48):
it will now be September at the earliest the Fed
will revisit the issue.
Speaker 1 (08:53):
But huh, we'll see.
Speaker 2 (08:57):
I mean, you know, it's only a moment of time
before Trump addresses the Fed and Powell. It makes me
wonder the silence on the issue, what that will look
like or sound like, or I'll know. My third tekewait today,
Protect the rays, Protect the rays before we get there.
(09:17):
Great story out of Juno Beach that made national news yesterday.
Speaker 4 (09:24):
A big round of applause for a big sea turtle
coming from a crowd wishing Penny Wise and the luggerhead
turtle will as she heads back to see penny Wise
recovered from a boat versus turtle collision, and that recovery
is rare. According to Marika Weber the Loggerhead Marine Life
Center in Bomb Beach County, Florida, most of.
Speaker 5 (09:44):
The time sea turtle interaction that boats are fatal. So
seeing Pennywise surviveor injuries and being able to make it
to our center was very, very special. So it's something
that we could fix.
Speaker 4 (09:54):
The center says, She's healed enough to possibly hit the
beach and lay some eggs this summer.
Speaker 1 (09:59):
That's cool, great news. Love seeing it.
Speaker 2 (10:02):
And it takes me to my third takeaway of protecting
the rays. And I'm not talking about keeping the Tampa
Bay Rays in Tampa. There, with the potential poll of
BT new buyers and the bidding for the rays all
being within the state, that does look like it's going
to be likely to happen, and worst it would go
to Orlando.
Speaker 1 (10:19):
It looks like.
Speaker 3 (10:20):
You're not talking about protecting the sun rays either, because
I think there's plenty of that. Okay, I don't think
we have any any concerns about the sun's rays. You're
for the little bit I do spent outside i's gonna
say somewhere to the car and backs.
Speaker 1 (10:35):
Should I take this to be complaining.
Speaker 3 (10:38):
I did get a little bit of a sunburn in
Dollywood last week, but yeah, I'm just I'm just guessing
that's not what this is about either.
Speaker 2 (10:45):
Definitely not about that. No, I enjoyed the sunrays, but
so now I'm talking about keeping the most majestic of
the rays in the water outside of Tampa Bay and
everywhere else around our state. Water bug most of my
free time in or around the water for decades, I've
seen incredible things. I've experienced incredible things. I got lots
(11:09):
of stories, But today the most incredible experience I've had.
Speaker 1 (11:14):
You know, a lot of people would be like, you know,
shark encounter. No, actually.
Speaker 2 (11:18):
Is scariest experiences I've had, maybe, but the most incredible
and low tide only about twenty feet off shore.
Speaker 1 (11:25):
My wonderful wife Ashley and I were.
Speaker 2 (11:27):
Hanging out when we saw a massive disturbance and when
we looked a bit closer, we had five giant man
to Raise are making their way through the challenge together.
It was an absolutely incredible experience and the only time
that we've seen man to raise in our waters. In fact,
it inspired us to buy.
Speaker 1 (11:47):
The a table from Wiland.
Speaker 2 (11:51):
The modern artist who is the best and all the
murals and everything. He's got his wheeling walls, that a
couple of them in our state, the one hundred whaling
walls around around the world. But anyway, I mean just
the man rays. Unbelievable seeing the five of them together.
So a recent video from Panama City Beach, it's gone
(12:11):
viral and as a group of men hooked and pulled
in a giant Manner ray that turned out to be
legal due to a marine Special Activity license to harvest
the federally protected species to go to an aquarium in Asia.
As it turns out, Florida is the only state to
allow for the harvesting of man to raise for any reason.
(12:31):
And while I grapple the potential for greater appreciation of
the ocean, it's creatures that might come in aquariums. What
I'm not on board with is effectively torturing these you know,
this species to try to make it happen. You know,
if they are born in captivity and can be raised
in that environment, that's one thing. But removing an adult
female from Florida's waters inhumanly with no indication if it's
(12:55):
even going to survive the ordeal all the way to
Asia is another. So it is time to end the
law allowing for this practice. Time to protect the race
Welcome to the Brian Mud Show. Thanks for listening. Fashion
plus talent is unstoppable. It's time for today's Top three takeaways. Yeah,
Happy Thursdays.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
We close out July already econ course correction, Trump's reaction
and saving rays My top three takeaways for you today.
Starting with the course correction, we started the day with
this economic news yesterday.
Speaker 1 (00:32):
The gross domestic product expanded at a three percent pace
in the second quarter. The increase for the spring is
stronger than expected.
Speaker 2 (00:40):
There is just something, I mean when you hear gross
domestic products, what comes to mind?
Speaker 1 (00:44):
Jel.
Speaker 2 (00:46):
I mean, I.
Speaker 3 (00:47):
Hadn't really given it a thought until about an hour ago,
and you you said, what comes to mind for you? Well, no,
it wasn't me, no, but now it does because you
heard I had never heard that. Our old, our old
friend Seawan McGuire saying that it sounded like what's something
in a child's um diaper?
Speaker 2 (01:04):
Perhaps, yes, he said, When I think of gross domestic product,
I think of I think it wasn't a diaper.
Speaker 1 (01:10):
I never thought of it.
Speaker 2 (01:11):
I've never been able to get that out of my
brain since now I won't. But the other thing is,
it's just like in the grand scheme of the way
that you can say, you know, certain economic stuff to
make it sound even wonkier than it needs to be.
It's like gross domestic product that is up there, just
kind of like in the GDP is Yeah, I'm down
with GDP. Yeah, so very good. It does roll off
(01:34):
the tongue more than so. The GDP report, on winds say,
was about as good as anyone, including President Trump, could
have hoped for it to be. Not only did the
three percent growth rate blow away Wall Street expectations, not
any diapers that aware, but just blew away Wall Street's expectations.
Wall Street had expected two point three percent growth for
(01:57):
the second quarter, and even the Atlanta federally recently elevated
expectations were outdone. They came in a two point nine
percent their final revision, something I mentioned, and yesterday's report
also came with the added bonus of significantly less consumer inflation.
This is an extremely important point that I haven't seen
(02:19):
gain much traction or attention, but is huge going forward.
As I mentioned on May first, after the first quarter
GDP report showed negative economic growth, I said, the way
that GDP is calculated is a wonky thing, and without
getting into too much wonkiness, it's like this, imports are
(02:41):
subtracted from GDP growth, meaning the more imports the country has,
the lower the GDP growth. In other words, if all
other things are equal, importing more stuff leads to negative GDP,
but it doesn't actually mean that the economy in the
real world is shrinking. And that's almost entirely what's to
blame for what made headlines for a negative first quarter
(03:02):
economy Anticipating future taroffs, businesses imported stuff at an unprecedented
rate in the first quarter. And on that note, what
we saw was a course correction with a decrease in
imports in the second quarter, following the buildup inventories in
the first, which aided GDP growth this time around. So
(03:24):
here is the bottom line in all this. It's not
the case that the economy was bad in the first quarter.
Speaker 1 (03:32):
And great in the second quarter. That's not what happened here.
Speaker 2 (03:35):
Instead, it's been a steady grower throughout the first half
of the year. It's precisely what I projected what happened
three months ago, and most encouraging within the report, I
mentioned the significant decline in one of the most important
inflation metrics. It's not the only one. You know, You've
got the CPI with the consumer Price Index, that's hugely important,
(03:59):
but actually you have the personal consumption expenditures price index.
Personal consumption expenditures price index doesn't evoke the same imagery
as say the gross domestic product, but it is another
wonky kind of sounding thing, right, it's better known as
(04:21):
the PCE. You down with the PCE, sure, you know me, okay,
But the one person who is absolutely absolutely down with
the PCE. Too late, too late, drone pal, as the
President refers to him. Yeah, the Federal Reserve Chair loves
the PCE. In fact, it's the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation measure.
(04:44):
Like if they are just going to take one number
to judge inflation, this would be the one. And it
happened to fall from three point seven percent in the
first quarter to two point one percent in the second quarter,
and that dropped the overall annualized rate for inflation through
this metric to two and a half percent. When was
last time the PCE average two and a half percent
(05:07):
last December? So what this means is that in the
real world, cost of buying things through the first six
months of the second Trump presidency, the inflation rate was unchanged.
There was no change despite Trump's imposition of tariffs. Now,
of course, the questions are these, will inflation rise as
(05:29):
imports and inventories normalize in the third quarter that we're
in now, and will Friday's liberation day two point zero
terra's for countries without trade deals in place, it's not
going to prove to be a big deal. So with
these questions outstanding, and with the inflation rates still above
the Federal reserves two percent target rate, it was no
(05:52):
surprise to see that the Federal Reserve, led by none
other than too Late drum Powell, left interest rates on changed.
On that note, here is the FET chair announcing the decision.
Speaker 1 (06:06):
He can support of our goals.
Speaker 3 (06:07):
Today the Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave our
policy interest rate unchanged.
Speaker 1 (06:13):
Notice he said their goals definitely not Trump's goal.
Speaker 2 (06:15):
It was definitely not what Trump was looking for after
the very public pressure campaign, including the visit to too
Late in the FED last Thursday. So, anyway, what was
interesting my second takeaway today, Silence is Golden say, very interesting.
(06:38):
What didn't happen yesterday? So after the GDP report was released,
at a thirty President Trump had this to say, he
trooped second quarter GDP just out three percent, way better
than expected.
Speaker 1 (06:51):
Too late, must now lower the rate.
Speaker 2 (06:54):
I like that. It's like a campaign slogan, too late,
must now lower the rate. You even turn that into
like rap song or something. No inflation, let people buy
and refinance their homes. So when the Fed opted not
to lower interest rates, the message was this.
Speaker 3 (07:16):
Nothing nothing, and that stands. I'm looking right now at
his uh yeah, true social student.
Speaker 2 (07:22):
Never sounded He sounded off on a lot of stuff yesterday,
including a lot of things after two did not sound
never once mentioned the Fed, never once mentioned interest rates
after that post, after the GDP report, first thing yesterday.
Speaker 3 (07:37):
And he's up in truth thing this morning.
Speaker 2 (07:39):
But uh very it's a very Interestino mission here. It's
very uncharacteristic for El presidente. So speaking about some of
the other stuff that he did sound off on yesterday,
Trump made it clearer now like tomorrow, you know, August first,
that's a real deadline and trade. His first message about
(08:01):
that yesterday was this, he said, the August first deadline
is the August first deadline. It's stands strong and will
not be extended. A big day for America. Lots of
exclamation points. His second message was this August first, a
great day for America. Lots of exclamation points. This is
very reminiscent of Liberation Day when he was heading into it.
(08:24):
So yeah, get ready for Liberation Day two point zero tomorrow.
The President also announced a new trade deal with South
Korea yesterday. He had tough works for Canada and India
and actually Senator Josh Holling as well, but was surprisingly
quiet yesterday on the topic of the interest rates, so
as expected with the Fed did not do anything, meaning
(08:48):
it will now be September at the earliest the Fed
will revisit the issue.
Speaker 1 (08:53):
But huh, we'll see.
Speaker 2 (08:57):
I mean, you know, it's only a moment of time
before Trump addresses the Fed and Powell. It makes me
wonder the silence on the issue, what that will look
like or sound like, or I'll know. My third tekewait today,
Protect the rays, Protect the rays before we get there.
(09:17):
Great story out of Juno Beach that made national news yesterday.
Speaker 4 (09:24):
A big round of applause for a big sea turtle
coming from a crowd wishing Penny Wise and the luggerhead
turtle will as she heads back to see penny Wise
recovered from a boat versus turtle collision, and that recovery
is rare. According to Marika Weber the Loggerhead Marine Life
Center in Bomb Beach County, Florida, most of.
Speaker 5 (09:44):
The time sea turtle interaction that boats are fatal. So
seeing Pennywise surviveor injuries and being able to make it
to our center was very, very special. So it's something
that we could fix.
Speaker 4 (09:54):
The center says, She's healed enough to possibly hit the
beach and lay some eggs this summer.
Speaker 1 (09:59):
That's cool, great news. Love seeing it.
Speaker 2 (10:02):
And it takes me to my third takeaway of protecting
the rays. And I'm not talking about keeping the Tampa
Bay Rays in Tampa. There, with the potential poll of
BT new buyers and the bidding for the rays all
being within the state, that does look like it's going
to be likely to happen, and worst it would go
to Orlando.
Speaker 1 (10:19):
It looks like.
Speaker 3 (10:20):
You're not talking about protecting the sun rays either, because
I think there's plenty of that. Okay, I don't think
we have any any concerns about the sun's rays. You're
for the little bit I do spent outside i's gonna
say somewhere to the car and backs.
Speaker 1 (10:35):
Should I take this to be complaining.
Speaker 3 (10:38):
I did get a little bit of a sunburn in
Dollywood last week, but yeah, I'm just I'm just guessing
that's not what this is about either.
Speaker 2 (10:45):
Definitely not about that. No, I enjoyed the sunrays, but
so now I'm talking about keeping the most majestic of
the rays in the water outside of Tampa Bay and
everywhere else around our state. Water bug most of my
free time in or around the water for decades, I've
seen incredible things. I've experienced incredible things. I got lots
(11:09):
of stories, But today the most incredible experience I've had.
Speaker 1 (11:14):
You know, a lot of people would be like, you know,
shark encounter. No, actually.
Speaker 2 (11:18):
Is scariest experiences I've had, maybe, but the most incredible
and low tide only about twenty feet off shore.
Speaker 1 (11:25):
My wonderful wife Ashley and I were.
Speaker 2 (11:27):
Hanging out when we saw a massive disturbance and when
we looked a bit closer, we had five giant man
to Raise are making their way through the challenge together.
It was an absolutely incredible experience and the only time
that we've seen man to raise in our waters. In fact,
it inspired us to buy.
Speaker 1 (11:47):
The a table from Wiland.
Speaker 2 (11:51):
The modern artist who is the best and all the
murals and everything. He's got his wheeling walls, that a
couple of them in our state, the one hundred whaling
walls around around the world. But anyway, I mean just
the man rays. Unbelievable seeing the five of them together.
So a recent video from Panama City Beach, it's gone
(12:11):
viral and as a group of men hooked and pulled
in a giant Manner ray that turned out to be
legal due to a marine Special Activity license to harvest
the federally protected species to go to an aquarium in Asia.
As it turns out, Florida is the only state to
allow for the harvesting of man to raise for any reason.
(12:31):
And while I grapple the potential for greater appreciation of
the ocean, it's creatures that might come in aquariums. What
I'm not on board with is effectively torturing these you know,
this species to try to make it happen. You know,
if they are born in captivity and can be raised
in that environment, that's one thing. But removing an adult
female from Florida's waters inhumanly with no indication if it's
(12:55):
even going to survive the ordeal all the way to
Asia is another. So it is time to end the
law allowing for this practice. Time to protect the race
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