Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Brian Musho podcast is driven by Brayman Motor Cars.
My family is a Brayman Motor Cars family. Your family
should be too. Visit Braymanmotorcars dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:14):
Welcome to the Brian mount Show and thank you for listening.
It's time for today's top three takeaways. Helpful, useful, repeatable.
Speaker 1 (00:23):
Today's takeaway it's got a little ecal news, we got
some religious views, and we got doge Is it mostly done?
Speaker 2 (00:31):
All right?
Speaker 1 (00:31):
So let's dive into this a little bit. My top
takeaway for you today, GDP was negative, don also scary
and bad.
Speaker 2 (00:41):
Here's the report. Jenny Cassilla with the dramatic news.
Speaker 3 (00:45):
The gross domestic product declined three tenths of a percent
in the first quarter. Economists we're expecting an increase. It
is the steepest decline in the GDP in three years.
Speaker 2 (00:56):
Jol you down with the GDP one, It's good. You
know me? How are you left feeling about all this yesterday?
Speaker 4 (01:04):
I mean, I don't know how to feel because I
don't trust the media. But I mean, honestly, it's an
honest answer. But yeah, but what I hear a lot
of this side of maybe Fox News and you know
some of the others is it's doom and gloom. Like
you said, do do do him, it's you know, oh
my god, he's ruining the economy.
Speaker 2 (01:21):
Okay, so let's walk through this.
Speaker 1 (01:26):
The GDP was negative, but no, it also was not
at all what you were likely led to believe that
Joel was just talking about. So yes, on Wednesday, we
were served with what seemed to be a double dose
of bad economic news, with a weak ADP jobs report
and most of all, a negative first quarter GDP report,
(01:52):
a report that as soon as it hit, I mean
I saw that, and before I got into the interworkings
of it, I'm like, oh, yeah, this is going to
be game on today.
Speaker 2 (02:01):
It's going to be open season on Trump.
Speaker 1 (02:04):
They're going to do everything they can to use and
abuse this the godless soul since lenders news media and
their unending effort to try to destroy Donald Trump. I mean,
they've already tried to make you feel like you're paying
for stuff with tariffs and nobody's still paid for anything
with tariffs, and people, Oh my gosh, it's just.
Speaker 2 (02:23):
It's so scary, it's so bad.
Speaker 1 (02:25):
What well the shelves, Yeah, they self stuff there he's
just it's all been lies to this point, right, Well,
this is another opportunity to play on that fear. Now,
to be fair, the headline information I said a Gore flashback,
(02:45):
wasn't it Gore who said they preyed on your fears?
Speaker 4 (02:49):
It's like, and I don't recall that one. It just
as I had a flashback. I don't remember the floating condom.
But I don't know that one.
Speaker 2 (02:56):
Oh mind, Why am I not surprised that one's you?
Speaker 1 (03:00):
By the way, Oh my gosh, which should By the way,
I mean in terms of the grossest things that I
ever fish out of the intracoastal ohma, that is a
really unfortunate thing.
Speaker 2 (03:14):
They don't all float either. A lot of times they
wash up. Just horrible.
Speaker 1 (03:18):
No, I mean, it's real. People are awful. People are
truly awful. So anyway, back to GDP, which is far
far less gross. The gross domestic product is far less
gross than that. It was negative point three percent to
start the year. Not exactly the kind of thing you
want to hear, but it is entirely explainable. And what
(03:42):
happened here was wonkiness, not a negative economy. The GDP
is a really wonky thing. Let me boil this down
and I think this will be mostly understandable. Imports, Okay,
So when companies buy stuff overseas where outside of this country,
(04:05):
they bring it into this country, that is subtracted from
GDP growth.
Speaker 2 (04:11):
We're not going to get into all the whys and where.
Speaker 1 (04:14):
Just know that imports are subtracted from GDP growth, meaning
the more imports that a country has, the lower the
GDP growth.
Speaker 2 (04:24):
Okay.
Speaker 1 (04:25):
Doesn't mean that the economy is shrinking if you have
a lot of imports, does it not at all? Just
means that you had a lot of stuff that was imported. Okay,
So hang on to that. When you take a look
what happened yesterday, Almost everything that was negative and that
GDP report was associated with imports because companies were raising
(04:50):
to buy a bunch of stuff to build up inventory
out of concern of tiros wanting to get ahead of them.
We had an incredible forty one percent more imported stuff
in the first quarter over the same time last year.
Speaker 2 (05:06):
I mean, it's massive. Never see anything quite like that.
Speaker 1 (05:10):
So that's what happened here because of the massive surge
in companies stocking up on inventory, which is why you
will have stuff on shelves next week. By the way,
the GDP actually took a five percent hit just on
imports because again they subtract the.
Speaker 2 (05:31):
Import stuff from the GDP number.
Speaker 1 (05:33):
So in other words, let's just say everything else we're
zeroed out. The GDP would be a five percent in
the first quarter without imports being the thing. Just think
about that. I mean, it would be an unbelievable growth economy.
On that note, if companies had only imported stuff the
(05:54):
normal rate they do, the actual GDP number would have
been north of two percent. Last month, consumer spending, this
is the key. Seventy percent of the US economy is
you and me buying stuff. Consumer spending rows by one
point eight percent seven close to recession. Territory business investment
surged to business investment was up close to four percent.
Speaker 2 (06:18):
That's massive, That is great growth.
Speaker 1 (06:23):
Neither of those super important numbers suggest anything close to
a recession.
Speaker 2 (06:29):
Plus. With companies having stocked.
Speaker 1 (06:30):
Up in advance of tariffs, what you're going to say
is that fewer imports are going to be taking place
in this second quarter, so the net effect of what
happened in the first will be balancing out in the
second quarter. But here's the thing that's an especially important one.
If the GSS media can scare you into thinking that
we have already been brought into a Trump ledter recession
(06:52):
and tariffs and just be afraid, put on some mask,
maybe don't buy stuff, buy mask, and that's it or
six of them. It's the kind of thing that can
become a self fulfilling prophecy because the people just stop
spending because they're like, oh no, this is bad. That
could create that effect, and that, by the way, make
no mistake, is absolutely what the left is trying.
Speaker 4 (07:15):
To do to you right now. It would I hate
to say this, it would almost be like COVID all
over again.
Speaker 1 (07:19):
Well yeah, I mean to an extent, very different version,
but the concept is similar. Yeah, so there was I mean,
what was structurally different about COVID is people really did
get kicked out of their jobs because of idiot politicians.
But there was good GDP news that also came from
the effect of some Doze news.
Speaker 2 (07:42):
My second takeaway is doze done.
Speaker 4 (07:47):
Only an administration that exhibits a meanness, almost a viciousness,
would do it.
Speaker 2 (07:51):
But that's what Trump, Doze and Musk and all their
henchmen who work there are doing.
Speaker 1 (07:56):
I mean, there's just something about check Schumber talking about
Henchman and saying it like a henchman. Well that's what
I mean. Yeah, I mean I've said this for a
very long time. He's he's pretty up there in years
at this point, so it doesn't have the same effect
you go back, like, you know, fifteen years ago. It's
like the one guy in Congress that I would be
afraid of in a back alley somewhere at that guy,
(08:18):
like he's the one who makes people disappear. He's certainly
mobbed up, got all the you're done, you're toast if
you're on. So anyway, yes, good old Chuck. You at
it again there as he's talking about Henchman. I think
he's projecting again. But anyway, and Wednesday's cabinet meaning Elon
Musk and his festival of hats.
Speaker 2 (08:39):
Then you like the hats. By the way, Joel, were
you a fan of I knew.
Speaker 4 (08:42):
I think he said something about it. Even his hats
have hats.
Speaker 1 (08:44):
They did, that's what he was double hatting at times.
It was a quite the festification. Anyway, he essentially said
it's goodbyes as he announced that he was stepping away
from the White House and would continue to do his
gojing a day or two a week from away. Now,
on the one hand, the dozing to date one hundred
and sixty billion dollars in savings or nine hundred and
(09:07):
ninety three dollars in seventy nine cents per federal tax
payer being position is a failure of sorts, because as
it's becoming increasingly clear that the majority of what DOJE
is likely to do is probably already.
Speaker 2 (09:16):
Been done well.
Speaker 1 (09:19):
On the one hand, there was already an immediate sign
of DOS's earliest efforts paying off in the form of
government savings literally and the aforementioned GDP report. One other
area that was a drag on economic growth, the one
area that I am thrilled to never see grow. Like
if all it did was shrink for the rest of
my life, I would share it. I would I'd raise
(09:42):
some recessions here and there if we could keep it going.
Speaker 2 (09:44):
And be honest with you.
Speaker 1 (09:45):
Anyway, government The one thing that was a structural part
of the US economy that declined was government. And according
to the Bureau of Economic Analysis in the GDP reporting,
what did we see as noted by the BEEA. The
decrease and government spending reflected a decrease in federal government
(10:07):
spending that was partly offset by an increase in state
and local government spending.
Speaker 2 (10:12):
Oh yeah, this is all federal. The decrease.
Speaker 1 (10:16):
Now, some of the decline came from less defense spending,
some of it came from the initial dozing. Approximate one
hundred and twenty one thousand, or coast of seven percent
of the federal government civilian workforce as of now has
been dozed, which means that we should have continued cost
savings at the federal level ongoing.
Speaker 2 (10:34):
Pending the outcome of the BBB.
Speaker 1 (10:37):
Florida Congressman Andy Bean of the Congressional Doge Caucus said yesterday,
we're ready to take the reins and continue to push
no matter who is leading the Department of Government efficiency.
So while the day was always going to come to
Elon Musk, a temporary government employee who was only able
to work for one hundred and thirty days anyway, was
going to go and maybe the case the Doge is
(10:58):
just getting started. Elon got the ball, and if Congress
can work on the rest, that's actually the best case outcome. Anyway,
because look, that's where all the federal funding comes from.
Speaker 2 (11:06):
If they just don't fund stuff.
Speaker 1 (11:08):
Yay doged So Doge showed up in the GDP, and
that takes us to religious liberty.
Speaker 2 (11:14):
My third takeaway today, the Justice.
Speaker 5 (11:18):
Is hearing what could be a collision course once again
between the ideas of separation and church and state, and
that collision course ending right here at the Supreme Court.
At issue is this online virtual charter school in the
state of Oklahoma, and the question should public money, meaning
taxpayer money, go toward funding it.
Speaker 1 (11:36):
God give me strength. We're talking about religion, We're talking faith.
God give me strength. David's spun on the report there,
I don't There probably has been no thing that doesn't
actually exist that has been repeated more in my life.
Speaker 2 (11:52):
In separation of church and state. There is no such thing.
Speaker 1 (11:55):
I mean, please, somebody read the Constitution, please, anybody dealer Thankfully.
I think enough Supreme Court justices will have that this
will not be an issue.
Speaker 4 (12:05):
But yes, I'm looking at a bill here, a dollar bill.
It says in God we trust on the back of it.
It's all lies. It's all lies. So I shouldn't throw
this away.
Speaker 1 (12:18):
I think you probably should, because you know, it's a
there's separation of the two, isn't there. No, it's a
that's a good illustration, Joel, that even the currency has God.
So obviously there is not a separation of the two things.
Or you just separate yourself from money. We'll take up
donations for all those who want to separate churchian state financially. Look,
(12:41):
there is that we should not have an established state religion.
For another time. I've done this so many times. Anyway,
the United States Supreme Court heard six cases this week
on Monday. I fly this one as the big one
that I was watching, and for a number of reasons.
You know, Florida, we've got the largest school choice program
in the country, universal school choice. We do allow access
(13:03):
for parents to use money for religious schools. And the
case before the Supreme Courts you kind of heard the outline.
You have this Oklahoma Charter School Board versus Drummond case.
The Oklahoma Charter School Board executed a contract with a
Catholic virtual school. It was the first religious charter school
in the state and across the country, as the case
happens to be. And so anyway, yeah, the state Attorney
(13:25):
General suit and here we are.
Speaker 2 (13:27):
Well.
Speaker 1 (13:27):
For some reason, Amy Cony Barrett recused herself in this case,
which is unfortunate, but I mean, the closest thing you
could find to conflict. She didn't say why, but one
of her friends from Notre Dame provided some legal advice
in this case, so maybe that plays into it. Anyway,
if you pay attention to oral arguments, it does seem
(13:48):
that at a minimum, the rest of the so called
conservative court block was on board with the first in
the nation Catholic charter school. The left is already complaining
about this. That's a good sign that they are also
saying that this is probably going to be uphill the
Catholic Charter virtual school to Oklahoma, because you'll see reports
(14:11):
of weakening of separation of church and state again a
thing that doesn't actually exist.
Speaker 2 (14:16):
And that's a good sign.