November 4, 2025 • 13 mins
If the polls, and for that matter the betting markets, prove to be accurate, it figures to be a good day for progressives in the limited election action taking place across the country.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:04):
Welcome to the Brian Mud Show and thank you for listening.
It's time for today's top three takeaways. Helpful, useful, repeatable.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Yeah, what takeaways were you on this election day? Or
some talk about the election day implications and as we
dive into it, there's actually something else that goes on today.
Speaker 1 (00:29):
What could it be? How did we get here?
Speaker 3 (00:35):
Thirty five days ties the record for longest government shutdown
in US history. Congress has been unable to come to
an agreement on reopening the government as Democrats remain firm
on demanding the Affordable Care Act premium tax credits be
included as part of a deal. The other longest government
shutdown happened during President Trump's first term, from December twenty
second of twenty eighteen to January twenty fifth of twenty nineteen.
Speaker 2 (00:59):
Yeah, and it was a great Nobody remembers the partial
shutdown of twenty nineteen except for those that are actually
directly in it. And then it was just an incredible
year for this country for the average American.
Speaker 1 (01:11):
And here we are, we.
Speaker 4 (01:12):
Died it in the net sum of thirty five days,
of thirty four percent of the federal government being offline
has been what exactly to you, Joel, the sum impact
on your life.
Speaker 5 (01:30):
Of the.
Speaker 2 (01:31):
Longest partial government shut down in American history, Part two,
it's been one.
Speaker 1 (01:37):
Let me check, absolutely nothing you and the average American
living their life. Yes, that's correct.
Speaker 2 (01:49):
Now, as I mentioned Friday, obviously increasingly there are more
people that are feeling the impact. I'm not suggesting otherwise,
and I'm not trying to minimize the impact on those
that are negative impacted by it.
Speaker 1 (02:00):
But again it's.
Speaker 2 (02:01):
Still i think is illustrated above the point that the
average American living the typical life as we are yet
again at a record for a partial government shut down
with thirty four percent of the federal government being on pline,
has been nothing. It's been absolutely nothing. You wouldn't know
it exists if it didn't exist in the news every day.
And so on that note, so we take a look
at my top takeaway today. It's a poll test. A
(02:22):
poll test, so it is election day in New Jersey,
in Virginia, in addition to select cities, most notably New
York City. So if the polls and for that matter,
the betting markets proved to be accurate, and it figures
to be a pretty good day for progressives in the
limited election action that is taking place across the country.
In addition to New York City, you also have key
may oral races in Atlanta, Boston, Cleveland, Detroit, Minneapolis, and
(02:46):
Seattle too, and each of those races Progressives are the
favorites to win. Now, regarding what will take place when
votes are counted in the races, I haven't ascid time
or two, but honestly, I don't really know any more
than you.
Speaker 1 (02:59):
Up to this point.
Speaker 2 (03:00):
I've not spent time digging into the nitty gritty the
way that I do with a lot of election analysis.
But I did spend some time with this yesterday, and
I can provide a bit of insight into the potential
view of the possible here, just using history as a guide.
So it's essentially today will be yet another poll test
of sorts, and the New York City mayoral race, the
(03:21):
Democratic Socialist Mom Donnie is shown with a real clear
politics point advantage of fourteen points fourteen on polling Market,
which is the legal way to gamble on these things.
Mom Donnie had been shown last night at a ninety
five percent probability of winning. Now it's at ninety two,
so it has come in just a little bit. In
New Jersey, the Democrat Cheryl is shown with a three
(03:45):
point three percent point advantage heading into today that is
translated into an eighty eight percent chance of her winning
on Polly Market. And in the Virginia commenatorial race, the
Democrat span Burger shown with a seemingly cozy nine point
real clear politics lead that has been translated into a
ninety nine percent chance of a win on poly Market.
(04:10):
By the way, betters also pricing in an eighty six
percent chance of Democrats sweeping all three of these closely
watched races. So my first bit of surface analysis based
on what it just brought you as this, there is
a bit of a disconnect between the pulling results in
the betty markets in these three races. Based on the
polls alone, mcdonnie should be performing better than Spandberger in
(04:31):
the betty markets, and Cheryl shouldn't be priced anywhere near
a certain winner. And by the way, the independent of
Anything polls might say, just listen to her and go
get that five.
Speaker 6 (04:43):
In their closing campaign rallies, Republican jacksona rally said it's
time for a change after eight years of Democratic state
leadership in New Jersey, while Democrat Mikey Cheryl promised that
she would fight President Trump's policies.
Speaker 2 (04:57):
As we come to this moment, you see an attack
on all the things we love.
Speaker 1 (05:04):
We know that here in New Jersey, we are drawing
a line. And you heard the one woman in the background.
Speaker 2 (05:10):
Yeah, yeah, And so she's like, okay, my closing argument
is bad orangeman? Yeah, bad orangeman. I mean, there's just
nothing there. You want to talk about somebody who's holding
me unimpressive? As we see an attack on the things
(05:34):
we love, what is it you love exactly?
Speaker 1 (05:38):
Your legal immigration? I'm guessing, I guess.
Speaker 2 (05:40):
And by the way, the other thing that's fun because
another quote from her yesterday and she's talking about change,
and I've said here taking a log, a democrat is
currently the governor of New Jersey. You've campaigned with that democrat,
you previously supported that democrat. What exactly are you trying
to change? There is nothing there. This woman is incredibly
(06:04):
unimpressive as a politician. I mean, you want to talk
about the empty suit that you just put her in
front of a podium. And so now people of the
Great State, or should I say garden state of New Jersey.
Just go away. She should get her butt whipped just
(06:26):
for sucking like that. So anyway, anybody who's like that
unimpressive should not be priced as a near certain winner.
I mean, say what you will about Mom, Donnie, that
man is an extraordinarily impressive candidate, right, so you know.
And on this note, while the polls and while the
(06:47):
betting market suggests that she is overwhelmingly likely to be
the next governor of New Jersey, oh not so fast.
Speaker 1 (06:56):
That's so fast.
Speaker 2 (06:57):
Let me give you some of the base level analysis
I did yesterday. I'm gonna start with Virginia. Four years ago,
the final Real Clear Politics point average in the Virginia
race had Glenn Youngkin leading by one point seven points
in an election he won by one point nine. So
the Virginia polls performed almost perfectly. And the governor's race,
(07:19):
most recently so a span Burger showed with what's nearly
a nine point lead, and the performance of the polls previously,
she's probably gonna win, maybe by a little bit less
what the poles say, but.
Speaker 1 (07:31):
Still enough to have a comfortable day.
Speaker 2 (07:32):
So Virginia does look like it's likely to flip now,
New Jersey different story. Four years ago, the Republican Jack Chitarelli,
the same candidate that's out there right now, was shown
with the seven point eight percent deficit in the RCP
average heading into election day. In the end, he lost,
but he performed exactly five points better than the polls.
(07:56):
As I mentioned, he's only shown down by three point
three on it average. So if the polls performed the
way they did four years ago, Jack SHILDRELLI will be
the next governor of New Jersey. Also, somewhat notably, New
Jersey's givenatorial candidates previously, the Republicans. They outperformed the polls
in the twenty seventeen, twenty thirteen, in two thousand and
(08:18):
nine elections. Two In other words, each of the past
four elections, the polls have undersampled eventual Republican support. So
that's really compelling New Jersey. New Jersey absolutely the state
to watch for me. I think there's a very real
chance that Chitderelli can win this thing. In addition to
the Virginia combedatorial race, you have the AG race. So
(08:44):
if Jay Jones can flip this is the Democrat in
the race. Virginia's AG seed, despite the revelation that he
has literally discussed killing his political opposition their families. That
would be clearly concerning for any number of reasons. And
(09:04):
we'll see what goes on there. As for New York City,
we haven't had a race like this in that city
in recent political history to compare it to. And it's
also hard to imagine that the real clear politics pulling
average would be off by like fifteen points. I mean,
have we seen on a rare occasion a single poll
(09:25):
be off by something like fourteen to fifteen points?
Speaker 5 (09:27):
Yeah?
Speaker 2 (09:28):
Have I ever seen the real clear politics pulling average
in any race that has a lot of sampling off
by over fourteen points? Now, I've never seen this. So
the other thing that that's kind of like interesting. On
that note, the analyst with the best record and projecting
New York City this cycle, like he projected the Mom
(09:49):
Donnie win well before anybody else, Michael Ange, and he
gets into all the Burroughs, takes a look at who's
voting and where, and he is forecast seeing a sixteen
point win for Mom Donnie today, by the way, with
him also winning over fifty percent of the vote in
the three way contest.
Speaker 1 (10:09):
So given those two things, you know, the.
Speaker 2 (10:13):
RCP average this analyst, it looks basically like I fay
complete the New York City will elect Acami, which means
my second takeaway for you today, NYC mass migration Part two. Now,
it was about two weeks ago that it broke down
what's known as the Mom Donnie effect and specifically the
(10:33):
number of relocations we might see in Florida. And the
result was this, based on the levels have expressed interest
today and appears likely we would see an additional fifty
percent increase in relocations above the current trend, leading to
an estimated forty thousand additional relocations from New York City
to Florida within the first year. The impact would likely
be felt immediately New York's mayor sworn in on January first,
(10:57):
and obviously the process of selling the home I know
ho moving that all takes time. So for these reasons,
should Mom Donny win tonight, we're probably going to see
an immediate spike in local real estate activity tomorrow and
other related shoes that could drop an impact even more quickly.
That'd be with part time residents from New York City
(11:17):
becoming permanent residents of Florida. It's a smaller universe of people,
but there are likely some that do still exist. So
it's not election day in Florida, though there are a
few elections and selights communities, but we're likely to feel
the effects from what happens next in New York City
almost immediately. And my third takeaway for you today, don't
buy the narratives at first, board from the here, we're.
Speaker 5 (11:42):
Going to get out there and live in soon a
powerful message not only three people of the state of California,
but if people all over the United States of America
by going out in record numbers.
Speaker 1 (11:55):
Yes, I'm fifty, Yes, I can't help myself. Sorry, it's
well done, Joel, It's all good.
Speaker 2 (12:05):
It's uh newsome as hot as his hair right there,
just got me so excited. Wonder how close you could
get to him with a lighter before you have a problem.
So anyway, regardless of what happens in today's elections, don't
buy the narrative that there are any national implications. There aren't.
There's no mood to the country stock not at all.
(12:28):
That is, with the two exceptions I'll get into here
in a second. So four years ago, Republicans outperformed expectations
in these elections, but then underperformed in twenty twenty two's
midterm elections, and then Democrats said, oh, we got the
momentum coming out of twenty twenty two, and then they
got wax last year. There's absolutely nothing about New Jersey
or Virginia's goovenatorial races that carry any implications beyond those states.
(12:52):
Most notably, it's what happens in California. Hence why I'm
playing the hair there. He was talking about Prop fifty.
The Yes on fifty allow for the temporary jerrymandering of
California's congressional districts that has potential national implications, with Democrats
blathing that they can carve out another five congressional seats
and the mayoral race in New York City for the
(13:13):
reasons that we've talked about, and not just the relocation factor,
but actually the implications within the Democrat Party specifically, so
should Mom Donnie win, the socialist wing of the Democrat
Party will be that much closer to their fully attempted takeover,
and this could immediately pressure politicians nationally on how they
(13:34):
go about dealing with a partial government shutdown, especially Democrats,
who could face primary challenges next year. It could encourage
the socialist wing to field more candidates and more races
throughout the country next year. And so that is the
potentially lasting implication of what's in played today. It's not
about left right politics. It's about the socialist wing versus
the establishment, the Democrat Party,
Welcome to the Brian Mud Show and thank you for listening.
It's time for today's top three takeaways. Helpful, useful, repeatable.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Yeah, what takeaways were you on this election day? Or
some talk about the election day implications and as we
dive into it, there's actually something else that goes on today.
Speaker 1 (00:29):
What could it be? How did we get here?
Speaker 3 (00:35):
Thirty five days ties the record for longest government shutdown
in US history. Congress has been unable to come to
an agreement on reopening the government as Democrats remain firm
on demanding the Affordable Care Act premium tax credits be
included as part of a deal. The other longest government
shutdown happened during President Trump's first term, from December twenty
second of twenty eighteen to January twenty fifth of twenty nineteen.
Speaker 2 (00:59):
Yeah, and it was a great Nobody remembers the partial
shutdown of twenty nineteen except for those that are actually
directly in it. And then it was just an incredible
year for this country for the average American.
Speaker 1 (01:11):
And here we are, we.
Speaker 4 (01:12):
Died it in the net sum of thirty five days,
of thirty four percent of the federal government being offline
has been what exactly to you, Joel, the sum impact
on your life.
Speaker 5 (01:30):
Of the.
Speaker 2 (01:31):
Longest partial government shut down in American history, Part two,
it's been one.
Speaker 1 (01:37):
Let me check, absolutely nothing you and the average American
living their life. Yes, that's correct.
Speaker 2 (01:49):
Now, as I mentioned Friday, obviously increasingly there are more
people that are feeling the impact. I'm not suggesting otherwise,
and I'm not trying to minimize the impact on those
that are negative impacted by it.
Speaker 1 (02:00):
But again it's.
Speaker 2 (02:01):
Still i think is illustrated above the point that the
average American living the typical life as we are yet
again at a record for a partial government shut down
with thirty four percent of the federal government being on pline,
has been nothing. It's been absolutely nothing. You wouldn't know
it exists if it didn't exist in the news every day.
And so on that note, so we take a look
at my top takeaway today. It's a poll test. A
(02:22):
poll test, so it is election day in New Jersey,
in Virginia, in addition to select cities, most notably New
York City. So if the polls and for that matter,
the betting markets proved to be accurate, and it figures
to be a pretty good day for progressives in the
limited election action that is taking place across the country.
In addition to New York City, you also have key
may oral races in Atlanta, Boston, Cleveland, Detroit, Minneapolis, and
(02:46):
Seattle too, and each of those races Progressives are the
favorites to win. Now, regarding what will take place when
votes are counted in the races, I haven't ascid time
or two, but honestly, I don't really know any more
than you.
Speaker 1 (02:59):
Up to this point.
Speaker 2 (03:00):
I've not spent time digging into the nitty gritty the
way that I do with a lot of election analysis.
But I did spend some time with this yesterday, and
I can provide a bit of insight into the potential
view of the possible here, just using history as a guide.
So it's essentially today will be yet another poll test
of sorts, and the New York City mayoral race, the
(03:21):
Democratic Socialist Mom Donnie is shown with a real clear
politics point advantage of fourteen points fourteen on polling Market,
which is the legal way to gamble on these things.
Mom Donnie had been shown last night at a ninety
five percent probability of winning. Now it's at ninety two,
so it has come in just a little bit. In
New Jersey, the Democrat Cheryl is shown with a three
(03:45):
point three percent point advantage heading into today that is
translated into an eighty eight percent chance of her winning
on Polly Market. And in the Virginia commenatorial race, the
Democrat span Burger shown with a seemingly cozy nine point
real clear politics lead that has been translated into a
ninety nine percent chance of a win on poly Market.
(04:10):
By the way, betters also pricing in an eighty six
percent chance of Democrats sweeping all three of these closely
watched races. So my first bit of surface analysis based
on what it just brought you as this, there is
a bit of a disconnect between the pulling results in
the betty markets in these three races. Based on the
polls alone, mcdonnie should be performing better than Spandberger in
(04:31):
the betty markets, and Cheryl shouldn't be priced anywhere near
a certain winner. And by the way, the independent of
Anything polls might say, just listen to her and go
get that five.
Speaker 6 (04:43):
In their closing campaign rallies, Republican jacksona rally said it's
time for a change after eight years of Democratic state
leadership in New Jersey, while Democrat Mikey Cheryl promised that
she would fight President Trump's policies.
Speaker 2 (04:57):
As we come to this moment, you see an attack
on all the things we love.
Speaker 1 (05:04):
We know that here in New Jersey, we are drawing
a line. And you heard the one woman in the background.
Speaker 2 (05:10):
Yeah, yeah, And so she's like, okay, my closing argument
is bad orangeman? Yeah, bad orangeman. I mean, there's just
nothing there. You want to talk about somebody who's holding
me unimpressive? As we see an attack on the things
(05:34):
we love, what is it you love exactly?
Speaker 1 (05:38):
Your legal immigration? I'm guessing, I guess.
Speaker 2 (05:40):
And by the way, the other thing that's fun because
another quote from her yesterday and she's talking about change,
and I've said here taking a log, a democrat is
currently the governor of New Jersey. You've campaigned with that democrat,
you previously supported that democrat. What exactly are you trying
to change? There is nothing there. This woman is incredibly
(06:04):
unimpressive as a politician. I mean, you want to talk
about the empty suit that you just put her in
front of a podium. And so now people of the
Great State, or should I say garden state of New Jersey.
Just go away. She should get her butt whipped just
(06:26):
for sucking like that. So anyway, anybody who's like that
unimpressive should not be priced as a near certain winner.
I mean, say what you will about Mom, Donnie, that
man is an extraordinarily impressive candidate, right, so you know.
And on this note, while the polls and while the
(06:47):
betting market suggests that she is overwhelmingly likely to be
the next governor of New Jersey, oh not so fast.
Speaker 1 (06:56):
That's so fast.
Speaker 2 (06:57):
Let me give you some of the base level analysis
I did yesterday. I'm gonna start with Virginia. Four years ago,
the final Real Clear Politics point average in the Virginia
race had Glenn Youngkin leading by one point seven points
in an election he won by one point nine. So
the Virginia polls performed almost perfectly. And the governor's race,
(07:19):
most recently so a span Burger showed with what's nearly
a nine point lead, and the performance of the polls previously,
she's probably gonna win, maybe by a little bit less
what the poles say, but.
Speaker 1 (07:31):
Still enough to have a comfortable day.
Speaker 2 (07:32):
So Virginia does look like it's likely to flip now,
New Jersey different story. Four years ago, the Republican Jack Chitarelli,
the same candidate that's out there right now, was shown
with the seven point eight percent deficit in the RCP
average heading into election day. In the end, he lost,
but he performed exactly five points better than the polls.
(07:56):
As I mentioned, he's only shown down by three point
three on it average. So if the polls performed the
way they did four years ago, Jack SHILDRELLI will be
the next governor of New Jersey. Also, somewhat notably, New
Jersey's givenatorial candidates previously, the Republicans. They outperformed the polls
in the twenty seventeen, twenty thirteen, in two thousand and
(08:18):
nine elections. Two In other words, each of the past
four elections, the polls have undersampled eventual Republican support. So
that's really compelling New Jersey. New Jersey absolutely the state
to watch for me. I think there's a very real
chance that Chitderelli can win this thing. In addition to
the Virginia combedatorial race, you have the AG race. So
(08:44):
if Jay Jones can flip this is the Democrat in
the race. Virginia's AG seed, despite the revelation that he
has literally discussed killing his political opposition their families. That
would be clearly concerning for any number of reasons. And
(09:04):
we'll see what goes on there. As for New York City,
we haven't had a race like this in that city
in recent political history to compare it to. And it's
also hard to imagine that the real clear politics pulling
average would be off by like fifteen points. I mean,
have we seen on a rare occasion a single poll
(09:25):
be off by something like fourteen to fifteen points?
Speaker 5 (09:27):
Yeah?
Speaker 2 (09:28):
Have I ever seen the real clear politics pulling average
in any race that has a lot of sampling off
by over fourteen points? Now, I've never seen this. So
the other thing that that's kind of like interesting. On
that note, the analyst with the best record and projecting
New York City this cycle, like he projected the Mom
(09:49):
Donnie win well before anybody else, Michael Ange, and he
gets into all the Burroughs, takes a look at who's
voting and where, and he is forecast seeing a sixteen
point win for Mom Donnie today, by the way, with
him also winning over fifty percent of the vote in
the three way contest.
Speaker 1 (10:09):
So given those two things, you know, the.
Speaker 2 (10:13):
RCP average this analyst, it looks basically like I fay
complete the New York City will elect Acami, which means
my second takeaway for you today, NYC mass migration Part two. Now,
it was about two weeks ago that it broke down
what's known as the Mom Donnie effect and specifically the
(10:33):
number of relocations we might see in Florida. And the
result was this, based on the levels have expressed interest
today and appears likely we would see an additional fifty
percent increase in relocations above the current trend, leading to
an estimated forty thousand additional relocations from New York City
to Florida within the first year. The impact would likely
be felt immediately New York's mayor sworn in on January first,
(10:57):
and obviously the process of selling the home I know
ho moving that all takes time. So for these reasons,
should Mom Donny win tonight, we're probably going to see
an immediate spike in local real estate activity tomorrow and
other related shoes that could drop an impact even more quickly.
That'd be with part time residents from New York City
(11:17):
becoming permanent residents of Florida. It's a smaller universe of people,
but there are likely some that do still exist. So
it's not election day in Florida, though there are a
few elections and selights communities, but we're likely to feel
the effects from what happens next in New York City
almost immediately. And my third takeaway for you today, don't
buy the narratives at first, board from the here, we're.
Speaker 5 (11:42):
Going to get out there and live in soon a
powerful message not only three people of the state of California,
but if people all over the United States of America
by going out in record numbers.
Speaker 1 (11:55):
Yes, I'm fifty, Yes, I can't help myself. Sorry, it's
well done, Joel, It's all good.
Speaker 2 (12:05):
It's uh newsome as hot as his hair right there,
just got me so excited. Wonder how close you could
get to him with a lighter before you have a problem.
So anyway, regardless of what happens in today's elections, don't
buy the narrative that there are any national implications. There aren't.
There's no mood to the country stock not at all.
(12:28):
That is, with the two exceptions I'll get into here
in a second. So four years ago, Republicans outperformed expectations
in these elections, but then underperformed in twenty twenty two's
midterm elections, and then Democrats said, oh, we got the
momentum coming out of twenty twenty two, and then they
got wax last year. There's absolutely nothing about New Jersey
or Virginia's goovenatorial races that carry any implications beyond those states.
(12:52):
Most notably, it's what happens in California. Hence why I'm
playing the hair there. He was talking about Prop fifty.
The Yes on fifty allow for the temporary jerrymandering of
California's congressional districts that has potential national implications, with Democrats
blathing that they can carve out another five congressional seats
and the mayoral race in New York City for the
(13:13):
reasons that we've talked about, and not just the relocation factor,
but actually the implications within the Democrat Party specifically, so
should Mom Donnie win, the socialist wing of the Democrat
Party will be that much closer to their fully attempted takeover,
and this could immediately pressure politicians nationally on how they
(13:34):
go about dealing with a partial government shutdown, especially Democrats,
who could face primary challenges next year. It could encourage
the socialist wing to field more candidates and more races
throughout the country next year. And so that is the
potentially lasting implication of what's in played today. It's not
about left right politics. It's about the socialist wing versus
the establishment, the Democrat Party,
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