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April 23, 2025 14 mins
We’re now under a week and a half away from the end of Florida’s legislative session and the tone in Tallahassee is becoming uglier by the day.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Brian Monshow podcast is driven by Brayman Motor Cars.
My family is a Brayman Motor Cars family. Your family
should be to visit Braymanmotorcars dot com.

Speaker 2 (00:13):
Welcome to the Brian mount Show and thank you for listening.
It's time for today's top three takeaways. Helpful, useful, griffeedable.
Happy Wednesday.

Speaker 1 (00:24):
So we're now heading down the home stretch to April
and of the month just a week away, and speaking
of things that are not far off, boy, the end
of Florida's state legislative session. That's only a week and
a half away. Things are going to happen quick here
or not. Maybe I mean Florida's competing agendas and the
value of a dollar. My takeaways for you on this Wednesday,

(00:49):
and my top takeaway for you today. Their agenda is
not your agenda, Stanchell there, it's not yours.

Speaker 3 (00:58):
I don't know that I have an agenda at this point.

Speaker 4 (01:01):
Okay.

Speaker 1 (01:03):
This is actually about our current governor, not our future governor,
but the person who just may be the next governor
of Florida. He was with Sean Hannity talking about some
of the attention he recently received as he was holding
one of his town halls in southwest Florida, and he
had protesters that tried to derail it.

Speaker 4 (01:26):
He had just to say, this.

Speaker 5 (01:28):
Is why Donald Trump supports me to be florida next governor,
because I will take the message of common sense and
conservatism anywhere, any place, anytime, in any audience. I'm not
going to be intimidated by any of these protesters.

Speaker 1 (01:41):
He could certainly say that about DeSantis too, right. He
is not afraid to say what he thinks. He's not
going to be intimidated. He's going to put it out there.
And that happened yesterday. That happened yesterday.

Speaker 4 (01:51):
So yeah.

Speaker 1 (01:52):
As we are now only a week and a half
away from the end of this year's state legislative session,
the tone in Tallahassee becoming uglier by the day. On Tuesday,
Governor DeSantis torched Florida's House yet again, this time over
the Everglades restoration plan and the words of DeSantis. He said, Unfortunately,

(02:13):
the Florida House representatives have proposed a budget that slashes
Everglades funding and water quality efforts by almost a half
billion dollars. And this got my attention because when you
start talking about what's going on in the inner workings
of budgetary stuff. Maneuvering in the legislature is kind of
hard to know what's what at any given time, and

(02:34):
so I started to do some digging yesterday and there
are some stuff that I found to be concerning here.
DeSantis also accused the House of basically being opposed to
whatever it is that he's into. He said this, the
leadership in the House of Representatives has taken a position
that if I'm for something, it's just their of you.

Speaker 4 (02:53):
To oppose us. It just a knee jerk fashion.

Speaker 1 (02:58):
Oh, the governor always gets his We don't want to
get the governor any wins. That's kind of how these
people think. And by these people, he really means Daniel
Prez and then anybody who goes along with him. But
that is the Oh the governor always gets this way.
That's Daniel Prez to a decentis there? He just does
not name him by name. Well, I can't specifically think

(03:21):
of how these people think.

Speaker 4 (03:22):
Do you know how those people think?

Speaker 3 (03:24):
Jill? Who are those people? That's what I think when
you say.

Speaker 1 (03:30):
That There is plenty of evidence to suggest that House
Speaker Daniel Prez is highly interested in independence from Governor
Desantus' agenda. You know, it's true if we're talking about
the best way to address tax cuts, which this is
something that I've been mindful of again not much longer

(03:52):
here in this session, what heck is going to happen
with tax policy in the state of Florida. So let's
not forget that the legislature as of this moment has
still done nothing on tax cuts. They've done nothing to
approve the bill that would consider the elimination of property
tax in Florida. Just like what is going to happen there,

(04:13):
Whatever it's going to be, it's gonna be next week.
I mean, a lot of that stuff does happen late
with the overall budget process, which is always like the
last thing to happen. But the other related bills gone nowhere.
But it's also true of what the House appears willing
to do on water and environmental policy too, As DeSantis
went on to say, this is one of so many

(04:35):
other things where their agenda is not your agenda. Their
agenda is not what the people voted for. Their whole
agenda really represents a revolt against the voters that sent
them there. All they had to do was continue the momentum,
continue the success, build off of what.

Speaker 4 (04:55):
Had come before.

Speaker 1 (04:56):
Instead, they submit a budget where they're trying to totally
sabotage all the efforts we have with Everglades restoration. Okay,
so this is where I did some digging. What's true. Well,
as of now, the House's Everglades restoration proposal is sixty
two percent lower than what DeSantis has proposed, and it

(05:21):
leaves out entirely, entirely all of the waterway needs that
are our biggest needs on Florida's East coast, every one
of them. Governor DeSantis's plan called for sixty four million
dollars over the next year to continue the construction of
the EAA reservoir system, you know, the Southern reservoir off
Leco that, once complete, can come clean access Laco water

(05:46):
Stort and then send it south through the Everglades, which
is a natural flow. Additionally, before all that's done, DeSantis
also proposed fifty million dollars for specific projects that are
currently underway aimed at regard using discharges from Laco East
into the Saint Lucis Estuary's Indian River Lagoon in Lake

(06:06):
Worth Lagoon. So how much has the House allocated for
the EAA reservoir program and continuance that project?

Speaker 4 (06:18):
How much for the other thing? Zero?

Speaker 1 (06:20):
Nothing, absolutely nothing, So they would all just stop it
kind of be like, you know, the environmental equivalent in
the state of Florida of like Trump's border wall, you
know when Biden came in that we're just we're done now.

Speaker 4 (06:35):
Really, we're just gonna stop through all these years.

Speaker 1 (06:40):
So yeah, I would say that from what happens or
has yet to happen on Texas to the House's idea
of environmental policy, I agree with just answers. Their agenda,
at least as of now, has not been My agenda
is not at all actually, and my house re at
thankfully Mike Cruso, he's been one of the rare voices

(07:02):
in the House to support Decantis against Perez. But you're
concerned about this stuff and somebody other in Crusoe is
your house rep. You should be in their ear about
this stuff, because they are. If this is not part
of your agenda, going against the Santas and all this stuff,
stopping all of the environmental projects that we've been involved.

Speaker 4 (07:23):
With, you might want to do something.

Speaker 1 (07:27):
So DeSantis write to make some noise about this, because
there's just not much time left to address any of this.
Second takeaway today, follow the dollar the shiny object in
the room. What happened with Stox yesterday? Here's Fox's Hillary Barski.

Speaker 6 (07:42):
Stocks ending sharply higher and erasing most of Monday's sell
off on trade optimism, and his investors digest a new
batch of earnings reports. Treasury Secretary Scott Besson said today
that he expects us in China to begin de escalating
their trade hostilities in the very near future.

Speaker 4 (07:58):
According to Barons.

Speaker 1 (08:00):
So that was a big thing. Hey, you hear what
Besson said. That's what the market has come to this point.
Not so fun fact for you. Did you know that
despite yesterday's snapback stock market rally, the Dow, it's at
risk of having its worst April since the Great Depression
in nineteen thirty two?

Speaker 4 (08:19):
See you shaking your head?

Speaker 3 (08:20):
Jab Yeah? I mean that was a thing. You know.

Speaker 7 (08:22):
I checked what happened after the market closed yesterday. I
was like, Okay, this looks good, but wait what happens next?
Because we're really down and then we're really up, and
that's just it's yeah, but.

Speaker 4 (08:35):
More certainly down than really up.

Speaker 1 (08:37):
Yeah, yeah, yeah, sure, it feels that way well, and
it has been that way. So yeah, if you've been
feeling uneasy about the financial markets, it's not just you.
You know, I'm always quick to point out, hey, you know, uh,
this is just a case of recency bias or you
know whatever.

Speaker 4 (08:53):
Now this has been different.

Speaker 1 (08:55):
Like if you've been taking a look at what's happened
this month and gone, man, I don't even remember anything
quite like this. It's kind of nuts. You're right, because
you haven't lived anything like this. We've had other months,
like during the Great Recession that were as baltal as
what we've seen. We never had in April now since
the Great Depression that was that bad. And by the way,

(09:17):
we certainly do not want to test the outcome of
April of nineteen thirty two, because the Dow was off
here for twenty percent during that month. That would not
be a good not be a good test. But anyway,
yesterday's rally, as was mentioned in that report brought to
you by the Rumor mill entirely, that's what the market
has come to now, Specifically, the news that Treasury Secretary

(09:41):
of Scott Pssent told a group of investors. And keep
in mind this is just allegedly. You know, this was
behind closed doors and somebody came out and said, yeah,
Besen said that the trade war with China unsustainable.

Speaker 4 (09:54):
He wants a de escalation.

Speaker 3 (09:56):
That was it.

Speaker 1 (10:00):
That's what the market is on central razor's edge right now.
That the rumor mill about potential de escalation with China
is worth what you saw in this dog market yesterday
about three percent for stocks. And by the way, Joe,
if you're wondering, if you're wondering, what's next, speaking of hey,

(10:21):
I'm just saying stuff and the market moves. Big Trump
came out and said that I'm not going to fire
I'm not going to file fire Pal. So just his
I'm not going to fire Pal after saying he can't
be terminated fast enough recently. That will future is much
higher this morning, about half of what we saw yesterday.

Speaker 3 (10:40):
Tomorrow, he goes, Now, I was just kidding. Maybe I will.

Speaker 1 (10:43):
Yeah, you probably give back the everything from yesterday and
today whatever it will be. But that's where we are
right now in all this that, and my point is
twofold here. The first is that's noise right at a
certain level of that because it's actions the speak clouder
than words.

Speaker 4 (11:01):
What's real the.

Speaker 1 (11:02):
Dollar in your pocket, right, and what that's worth when
you go to buy stuff. That's what matters most in
the here and now, unless you are trying to pull
money out of stocks, and hopefully your timing is good
on that. So the US dollar, I mentioned on money,
this is my single biggest concern right now and the

(11:23):
biggest news that emerged from the financial markets yesterday, Nothing
from the rumor mill, but how the US dollar behaved yesterday.
The dollar finally broke its losing streak. The US Dollar Index,
which values the dollar in your pocket against the basket
of leading world currencies, may have finally put in a
bottom after reaching the lowest value in over three years
on Monday. As I mentioned, at the peak on Monday,

(11:45):
it was worth over ten percent less the US dollar
than it was on January twentieth, when Trump became bread.
That's massive, right. If that would mean that, if nothing
else mattered, you would have to pay ten percent more
for stuff.

Speaker 4 (12:00):
Generally, that's not good, not good.

Speaker 1 (12:05):
So we saw the dollar rally back a little bit yesterday,
and if it has put in the bottom, that is
what really matters. Here, which takes me into my third takeaway.

Speaker 6 (12:14):
Today bigcoin rowse above ninety thousand dollars for the first
time since March, all of the Dow thirty members ending
in the green today. The biggest winners Goldman Sacks three
m and Travelers.

Speaker 1 (12:26):
The bitcoin piece is especially interesting because you've seen gold
hit record highs. Gold doesn't even have to move. Just
the value of the dollar declining the way it has
would make the gold worth a lot more than it was.
You know, I mentioned the dollar is worth ten percent
less than when Trump took office. That would be worth
about three hundred dollars to gold, just the decline of

(12:47):
the value of the dollar without increasing the value of
gold making it any more complicated than it needs to be.

Speaker 4 (12:53):
What's happened is the dollar's been so.

Speaker 1 (12:56):
Volatile that people are going, well, maybe bitcoin is the
play if we can't trust the US dollar and if
I don't want to buy a bunch of gold at
this point, big point, And so that's what's actually going
on there.

Speaker 4 (13:09):
Now.

Speaker 1 (13:10):
The last time the dollar in my third takeaway is
the value of the dollar is still a problem because
the last time it was valued as low as it
is today, US inflation rate was eight and a half percent,
near the peak of Biden inflation. Here's where this really matters.
I've been pointing this out. People want to talk about taroffs.
People want to talk about what you haven't felt it.

(13:30):
The only thing that you have seen or potentially felt
if you have been moving money in and out of stocks,
is the stock market.

Speaker 4 (13:39):
That's it.

Speaker 1 (13:40):
Nothing else you have paid for yet, But that's going
to change soon. We're within two weeks of stuff really
starting to hit from the tiaroffs and then the weakening
of the US dollar. The stock market's a leading indicator, right,
and so all the craziness you've seen with the stock
market that's yet to play out in terms of the
real world impact be on that to you. But it

(14:02):
will the next week. And and that's the time frame here.

Speaker 4 (14:04):
Trump. We can't have a cent.

Speaker 1 (14:06):
Behind closed doors telling some guys, yeah, you know what
I mean.

Speaker 4 (14:11):
That's not going to do it in a week and
a half.

Speaker 1 (14:13):
It can't be Trump saying I'm really not going to
fire a Powell after all, that's not going to get
it done in a week and a half. We need
subset of action, and so that's what in the dollar
is still a problem at these levels, so that needs
to be fixed, and that'll be fixed if we do
get some of these trade deals done.

Speaker 4 (14:28):
But it's time to get these deals done.
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