How Low Can Stocks & Crypto Go? April14th, 2025

One of my themes for the current cycle has been perspective being key. The cause for this round of bear market activity wasn't underlying weakness in the economy but instead a reset of global trade policy.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:03):
Welcome to the Brian Mudshow. It's the info you need
to start your day in the Bomb Beaches and the
Treasure Coast. Hello, Constucks and cryptocurrencies go, and how confused
can we all go?

Speaker 2 (00:18):
When the tariff rate went up to the full rate
of one twenty five on top of the twenty, it
was necessary to publish a more detailed list from Customs
and Border Protection explaining the rates and how they're applied.
There are no exemptions. Everyone pays at least the twenty percent.

Speaker 1 (00:37):
Make any sense to you, No, there are no exacts. Okay,
so that's incorrect by way a policy actually in terms
of what's been late. But nevertheless, so this is all
what is confusing people. That was White House Deputy Chief
of Staff Stephen Miller with Maria Bartiromo yesterday saying something

(00:59):
that actually, at least rhetorically contradicts the physical policy that
I was just breaking down in the Q and A
for you. So I say, some way you hear out
there contradicts what the actual policy is, which adds to
all of this. When my first role, money is what Joel,
no confusion here. Never let your money in emotions cross paths.

(01:20):
It's that simple. That is true. Yes, I do not
like confusion and certainly don't want you to be confused
when it comes to your money and panic selling and
all that kind of stuff. Man, this has been tested,
my first role, money has been tested a lot over
the past couple of weeks, which is why I give
this to you all the time on a weekly update,
so that you're ready when stuff changes like it has

(01:42):
and the deal is over. Ninety percent of the time
you try to jump into now and you try to
time to the market, you do worse than if you
just stayed the course with your original investments. And so
this is all about trying to not make mistakes with
money and then hopefully take advantage of the greatest wealth
creation machine in the history of the world, which is
your United States stock market. And what a difference week.

(02:02):
Thanks you know. The gains based upon the Index of
Choice Dallas and P five hundred NASIK, the gains are
anywhere from nine to twelve percent. Last week. It is
one of the best weeks in the history of the
United States stock market, coming off of one of the
world worst weeks in the history of the United States
stock market in the previous week. Last Money has said
this history tells us that these types of events are
long term buying opportunities, not times to panic. And if

(02:26):
you took me up on that advice, if you were
buying into the teeth of the bear market last week,
you were rewarded based upon your timing just on average
anywhere from about thirteen percent to twenty percent by the
end of the week. So there you go yet again.
And one of my themes for this current cycle has
been perspective being key. We don't know, I'm gonna I'm
going to handicap this for you. We don't know what

(02:48):
we don't know, which is a lot with all this
tear of stuff. If if if, because we haven't had
underlying weakness in the economy. If we do not end
up end up in a recession, there's a good chance
that the bottom has happened in this market. If we
do end up in a recession, things will probably get
worse from here. So as we are waiting to see

(03:08):
what's going to be with all of this tariff policy,
the change in tariff policy on Chinese imports for consumer
electronics and the like, that is really the thing I'm
keeping an eye on. And on the data front, last week,
the market received a double dose of great news on
the inflation front. Both consumer and producer inflation reached four
year lows last month. That also clears away for the

(03:28):
Fed to consider lowering interest rates going forward independent of
this whole tariff thing, that it's a factor, and we
get into the meat of earning season this week, expectations
for growth of seven percent year every year. Cryptos they
performed well in the midst of the massive volatility. Again
last week. You had Bitcoin up eleven percent, Ether of
nine the bill YZTF that represents the top ten cryptos

(03:50):
also of nine percent last week, so performing I'm basically
aligned with what stocks did. Now. I cannot provide any
value analysis for cryptos because they have no inherent value.
I cant for socks there because they do. Using the
S and P five hundred as the benchmark. If only
fundamentals and nothing else mattered, your absolute downside risk from
here is thirty nine percent. That is three percent more

(04:12):
risk than a week ago, because sock prices did rise
faster than fundamentals over the past week. But this market
is still fundamentally nine percent cheaper than it was at
the peak in this cycle. So do I think even
if we get more panic selling, a thirty nine percent
sell off from here is going to happen. No, is
it possible in theory, So let's just say it did.
If it would not negatively impact your daily life, great,

(04:34):
try not distress this stuff in the day and day.
Live for opportunities to buy, if anything. Meanwhile, if it would,
you absolutely need a new plan like yesterday, and if necessary,
a proach that can help you with it.