September 22, 2025 • 5 mins
It will be interesting to watch the market’s direction from here as we’re in the seasonally worst time of the year for stocks historically without a clear near-term catalyst beyond inflation/rate discussions.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:04):
Two sides to the story. There's only one side to
the facts. Welcome to the Brian Mud Show and thank
you for listening. Hello, can socks and cryptocurrencies go. My
first role money.
Speaker 2 (00:19):
Is never let your money in emotions cross.
Speaker 1 (00:22):
Paths sure enough, because if you do, you're probably gonna
have less of it, not what you want, especially when
you're investing. And the bottom line is that too often
it happens every ninety percent of the time you jump
into out you try to time things, you do worse
than if you just left your money alone where you
invested it in the first place. So I try to
fill in the gaps weekly with what's really going on,
(00:43):
what's moving markets, what the risk is at any given time,
so hopefully you can plan soundly for your financial future unemotionally,
taking advantage of the greatest wealth creation machine in the
history of the world, which is your United States stock market.
And about that, as we take a look at what's
getting ready to happen this week, Here's what went down
last week. Fox is Hillary Barski.
Speaker 3 (01:03):
Another record day on Wall Street, with the major averages
notching record closes as investors continue to process the Fed's
first rate cut of the year, and after President Trump
said he completed a call with China's president she and
President Trump saying that they may progress on issues on
trade and the pending TikTok deal.
Speaker 1 (01:20):
Yeah, so you had gains the big three Dallas and
P five hundred naseak anywhere from one to two percent
last week and year to date gains now nine to
seventeen percent. And so, yeah, finally happened the first Fed
rate cut of the year, quarter point no surprise, There
was a one hundred percent probability of rate cut prices
into the markets. Now in terms of you know whether
(01:41):
it's going to be a quarter or a half, ninety
three percent of traders had priced in a quarter point cut.
So the Fed delivered entirely on expectations there. If you're wondering, okay,
so why was their room to rally if this had
already been priced into the market. Well, when you take
a look at the Fed's guidance, it turned out to
be ever so slightly better than the market had preceding.
So the Federal Reserve said in so many words that
(02:03):
they intend to cut interest rates by an additional half
percent by the end of the year through two additional
quarter point cuts. The market had priced in an eighty
four percent chance of that happening. That then bumped up
to a ninety two percent chance after the FED, after
you had drone Palla a chair that ended up stating that,
(02:26):
So you did have the guidance that was a little
more optimistic for lower rates than the market had counted on.
As we take a look at where we go from here,
it's going to be interesting because seasonality, we've had all
these major catalysts that have been out there, doesn't really
have those right now. We're going to go through a
little stretch here where there's not a ton of market
(02:46):
moving news at least that it is evident. And see
the seasonality is the worst for stocks during the year.
Late September through October is like the worst stretch for
stocks historically. So the seasonality come into play and we
see some selling or things just continue, you know, to
be positive, y'lse. Meanwhile, for cryptos, you had to mix back.
(03:08):
Ether was all four percent Bitcoin flat bid YZTF. That
represents the top ten cryptos of five percent last week,
So really kind of like your second and third tier
players were the best performers last week. Nevertheless, gains crossed
the board for the year pretty strong, twenty three to
thirty four percent based upon your token the choice. Now,
I can't provide any value analysis for cryptos because they
have no inherent value, and can for secks because they do,
(03:31):
using the S and P five hundred as the benchmark,
if only fundamentals and nothing else mattered, your maximum downside
risk from here forty eight percent. That's a little bit
more than last week. And also notably, it equals the
most expensive the market has been at any point fundamentally
during the course of this cycle. So do I think
(03:52):
that necessarily not's a correction or worse? No possible in theory.
No matter what, do I expect a forty eight percent
sell off. But in theory that is possible if people
hit the panic cell button. So let's just say it
did happen. If it wouldn't negatively impact you end the
day to day, great, You're probably in good shape if
it would. But at that point time for a new
plan if necessary, pro that will help you with that plan.
Speaker 2 (04:14):
All right, Good morning, so Florida headlines Charlie Kirk being
remembered as an example of what it means to have
courage and faith those are the words of Florida First
Lady Casey D. Santis. She wrote that about Kirk yesterday
on x same day as his memorial service was held
in Arizona. Turning Point, USA. Estimates ninety thousand people were there.
Governor D. Santa says it was a great showing of
support and it shows Kirk's impact will grow much larger
(04:37):
in the years ahead. And he had a group of
local high schoolers with the chance to attend the Kirk memorial.
That's thanks to a Stewart businessman, investor James Crocker, founder
and former CEO of Honk Technologies. He received a dozen
tickets from Turning Point USA and posted on Facebook to
give them away to students. Then he charted a private
plane to Arizona. They flew out on Saturday, attended, of course, yesterday,
(05:00):
and flew back last night. Ryan Ruth set to present
his case to a jury today during trial for the
attempted assassination of President Trump. Ruth's accused of trying to
kill the President while he was running for reelection in
twenty twenty four. Prosecutors related rested their case late Friday
after presenting witnesses testifying things like evidence found at the
scene an area behind some bushes at Trump International Golf
(05:22):
Club in West Palm Beach last September, and there don't
appear to be any obvious problems with an amusement park
ride man was on before he died. Universal Orlando Resorts
president Karen Irwin releasing a statement following Kevin Rodriguez Aval's
death last week after he was on the Stardust Racers
ride at Epic Universe. He died of multiple blood force injuries.
(05:42):
Death ruled a accident. Irwin writes the ride didn't malfunction,
equipment didn't fail, and all procedures were followed, but it
remains closed as Universal works through a comprehensive review process
with the manufacture. Those are your headlines.
Two sides to the story. There's only one side to
the facts. Welcome to the Brian Mud Show and thank
you for listening. Hello, can socks and cryptocurrencies go. My
first role money.
Speaker 2 (00:19):
Is never let your money in emotions cross.
Speaker 1 (00:22):
Paths sure enough, because if you do, you're probably gonna
have less of it, not what you want, especially when
you're investing. And the bottom line is that too often
it happens every ninety percent of the time you jump
into out you try to time things, you do worse
than if you just left your money alone where you
invested it in the first place. So I try to
fill in the gaps weekly with what's really going on,
(00:43):
what's moving markets, what the risk is at any given time,
so hopefully you can plan soundly for your financial future unemotionally,
taking advantage of the greatest wealth creation machine in the
history of the world, which is your United States stock market.
And about that, as we take a look at what's
getting ready to happen this week, Here's what went down
last week. Fox is Hillary Barski.
Speaker 3 (01:03):
Another record day on Wall Street, with the major averages
notching record closes as investors continue to process the Fed's
first rate cut of the year, and after President Trump
said he completed a call with China's president she and
President Trump saying that they may progress on issues on
trade and the pending TikTok deal.
Speaker 1 (01:20):
Yeah, so you had gains the big three Dallas and
P five hundred naseak anywhere from one to two percent
last week and year to date gains now nine to
seventeen percent. And so, yeah, finally happened the first Fed
rate cut of the year, quarter point no surprise, There
was a one hundred percent probability of rate cut prices
into the markets. Now in terms of you know whether
(01:41):
it's going to be a quarter or a half, ninety
three percent of traders had priced in a quarter point cut.
So the Fed delivered entirely on expectations there. If you're wondering, okay,
so why was their room to rally if this had
already been priced into the market. Well, when you take
a look at the Fed's guidance, it turned out to
be ever so slightly better than the market had preceding.
So the Federal Reserve said in so many words that
(02:03):
they intend to cut interest rates by an additional half
percent by the end of the year through two additional
quarter point cuts. The market had priced in an eighty
four percent chance of that happening. That then bumped up
to a ninety two percent chance after the FED, after
you had drone Palla a chair that ended up stating that,
(02:26):
So you did have the guidance that was a little
more optimistic for lower rates than the market had counted on.
As we take a look at where we go from here,
it's going to be interesting because seasonality, we've had all
these major catalysts that have been out there, doesn't really
have those right now. We're going to go through a
little stretch here where there's not a ton of market
(02:46):
moving news at least that it is evident. And see
the seasonality is the worst for stocks during the year.
Late September through October is like the worst stretch for
stocks historically. So the seasonality come into play and we
see some selling or things just continue, you know, to
be positive, y'lse. Meanwhile, for cryptos, you had to mix back.
(03:08):
Ether was all four percent Bitcoin flat bid YZTF. That
represents the top ten cryptos of five percent last week,
So really kind of like your second and third tier
players were the best performers last week. Nevertheless, gains crossed
the board for the year pretty strong, twenty three to
thirty four percent based upon your token the choice. Now,
I can't provide any value analysis for cryptos because they
have no inherent value, and can for secks because they do,
(03:31):
using the S and P five hundred as the benchmark,
if only fundamentals and nothing else mattered, your maximum downside
risk from here forty eight percent. That's a little bit
more than last week. And also notably, it equals the
most expensive the market has been at any point fundamentally
during the course of this cycle. So do I think
(03:52):
that necessarily not's a correction or worse? No possible in theory.
No matter what, do I expect a forty eight percent
sell off. But in theory that is possible if people
hit the panic cell button. So let's just say it
did happen. If it wouldn't negatively impact you end the
day to day, great, You're probably in good shape if
it would. But at that point time for a new
plan if necessary, pro that will help you with that plan.
Speaker 2 (04:14):
All right, Good morning, so Florida headlines Charlie Kirk being
remembered as an example of what it means to have
courage and faith those are the words of Florida First
Lady Casey D. Santis. She wrote that about Kirk yesterday
on x same day as his memorial service was held
in Arizona. Turning Point, USA. Estimates ninety thousand people were there.
Governor D. Santa says it was a great showing of
support and it shows Kirk's impact will grow much larger
(04:37):
in the years ahead. And he had a group of
local high schoolers with the chance to attend the Kirk memorial.
That's thanks to a Stewart businessman, investor James Crocker, founder
and former CEO of Honk Technologies. He received a dozen
tickets from Turning Point USA and posted on Facebook to
give them away to students. Then he charted a private
plane to Arizona. They flew out on Saturday, attended, of course, yesterday,
(05:00):
and flew back last night. Ryan Ruth set to present
his case to a jury today during trial for the
attempted assassination of President Trump. Ruth's accused of trying to
kill the President while he was running for reelection in
twenty twenty four. Prosecutors related rested their case late Friday
after presenting witnesses testifying things like evidence found at the
scene an area behind some bushes at Trump International Golf
(05:22):
Club in West Palm Beach last September, and there don't
appear to be any obvious problems with an amusement park
ride man was on before he died. Universal Orlando Resorts
president Karen Irwin releasing a statement following Kevin Rodriguez Aval's
death last week after he was on the Stardust Racers
ride at Epic Universe. He died of multiple blood force injuries.
(05:42):
Death ruled a accident. Irwin writes the ride didn't malfunction,
equipment didn't fail, and all procedures were followed, but it
remains closed as Universal works through a comprehensive review process
with the manufacture. Those are your headlines.
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