August 1, 2025 • 11 mins
Let’s start with what won’t happen today. Anything as significant as the original Liberation Day.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:03):
Hey, thanks for listening, and welcome back to the Brian
Mud Show.
Speaker 2 (00:07):
Time now for today's top three takeaways.
Speaker 1 (00:11):
Yeah, hey there, And as we get going on this
a faraday, how liberated are you feeling?
Speaker 2 (00:16):
You feel liberated? Joel?
Speaker 3 (00:18):
Well, I haven't checked the futures yet.
Speaker 2 (00:22):
That determines your your feeling of liberation, does it?
Speaker 3 (00:26):
Let me tell you two seconds hang out here we go.
Speaker 1 (00:30):
What what number in particular determines your level of liberation?
Speaker 2 (00:35):
This would be my question.
Speaker 4 (00:39):
Oh my gosh, No, not feeling very liberated right now.
Speaker 2 (00:42):
It's not that bad. It's not that and that's kind
of my point.
Speaker 1 (00:46):
So today is Liberation Day two point zero or and
talk about north Lake's nightmare and also some friendly wind.
Friendly wind not the kind that comes to Joel's mind anyway.
So yeah, today is Liberation Day two point zero. And
one of the things that just it confounds me to
know end is how people are ever surprised by President Trump?
(01:06):
He is so transparent. How long has he been talking
about August first? But nevertheless, Fox says, Jared Halpern has
the latest from the White House.
Speaker 3 (01:15):
A lot of.
Speaker 2 (01:15):
Goods imported to the US are now facing higher tariffs
as part of President Trump's agenda to rebalance trade relationships.
Speaker 4 (01:23):
You know, we're taking in literally trillions of dollars for
the country. This is making our country very rich and
respected again.
Speaker 1 (01:32):
You know, you go back to the original Liberation Day
and one of the things I mentioned in the immediate
aftermath with the reaction, which again proved to be a
historic buying opportunity for investors if you were savvy at.
Speaker 2 (01:46):
That moment in time, was how surprised people were.
Speaker 1 (01:51):
If you were listening, you might recall I went back
to mid February and I was pulling out material from Trump,
including stuff that he had on the White House website
that said, if you do not agree to these deals,
here are the terrors that are coming on April second.
Speaker 2 (02:09):
And people get to April second, we didn't expect all that.
What are you talking about? What did you think was coming?
What did you think was going to Well, there were
so much more significant than I thought.
Speaker 1 (02:22):
Okay, and then it turned out to be nowhere near
as big of a deal right in the end. Now today,
August first, how long has Trump been talking about August first?
You're laughing, Joel, since he extended it originally. Yeah, and
quite a bit over the past few weeks. Right, oh yeah,
(02:43):
including prolifically this week throughout the week talking about August
first being a great day. What did you think was
going to happen? The Art of the Deal was written
in nineteen eighty seven. This just did somebody responsible for
running money. Whether you're involved in government and trade negotiations
(03:06):
in a foreign country, if you're involved on things that
you know, Wall Street, any kind of money, right, you
might want to read the book or you might just
want to pay attention because the guy is as transparent
as can be.
Speaker 2 (03:18):
So here we are. It's Liberation Day two point zero.
Speaker 1 (03:21):
You have some minor freakouts happening in the financial markets. Now,
the stock market reaction based on futures nowhere near as
severe as the original Liberation Day, but you are seeing
DOWN futures off over four hundred points right now, NASSEC
futures off about two hundred and fifty. We'll see what
people again, the stories were surprised.
Speaker 2 (03:43):
Again.
Speaker 1 (03:43):
I'm confounded by their surprise. Now, let me tell you
what this actually means to you, because I spend time
breaking down all this. What this means is that company
a country is responsible for just under forty percent of
all US trade now have significantly higher tariffs in place, Okay,
(04:07):
by my estimates. With the inclusion of the South Korea
trade deal, which was announced yesterday for actually that was
when I think it's Wednesday, trade deals have been worked
out with countries representing approximately forty six and a half
percent of US trade. Okay, So like deals that are
are done out of the picture of forty six and
a half. On Thursday, there was another major trade development
(04:30):
as President Trump announced a temporary ninety day trade deal
with Mexico, under which existing tariff rates will be left
in place, and in return, Mexico agreed to drop what
President Trump called non tariff trade barriers. He said there
were many of those, so over the next ninety days,
these non tariff trade barriers by Mexico won't be dropped.
Speaker 2 (04:52):
So in other words, you're what do you get from Mexico, Jill.
Speaker 3 (04:57):
I think you get the advocados from Mexico.
Speaker 1 (05:00):
Those and likelier to kil it to will not be
impacted by Liberation day two point zero today, no impact there.
Now that brings the total amount of US trade that's
unimpacted today, I come to sixty two point two percent
to be precise. All right, So for over sixty two
percent of the stuff you buy that is imported, no
(05:22):
impact today. Now for the remaining thirty eight percent or
so of the country's trade that is impacted today much
higher tariffs. But the real question what does this actually
mean to you? So let me boil this down a
little bit more. The actual answer is about one percent.
As in consumer prices on the stuff we buy, that's
about one percent higher than it is today today with
(05:43):
Trump's tariffs. About sixty percent of the increase has been
absorbed by companies, about fifteen percent has been absorbed by
foreign exporters, with around a quarter of the remaining cost
that has been passed along to you. So if that
holds through with what we're seeing here in Liberation day
two point zero, the increases that kick in today, with
(06:05):
the percentage of deals that are impacted by higher tariffs,
it'll work out to a consumer price increase of right
around one percent. Like I was going through the numbers
on this, I kept coming out to like one point something.
Anywhere from I guys was like one one, as high
as like one eight. I'm just it's gonna be somewhere
right around one percent, And that's also, by the way,
(06:26):
uneven based on what it is you're buying. For example,
if all you're doing buying those avocadas from Mexico, no impact, right,
But if you're buying what maple syrup from Canada. Joel's
favorite Canadian product is maple syrup.
Speaker 4 (06:41):
I can't think of what else they what else do
we get from Canada food wise? I know there's probably
a bunch of stuff, and I'm.
Speaker 2 (06:49):
A lot of people in season we get a lot
of that.
Speaker 3 (06:51):
Well I meant food.
Speaker 1 (06:53):
No, I know that we get a lot of I
mean most of it is energy and like forestry, lumber,
that kind of thing.
Speaker 2 (07:00):
There's a lot of what goes all in Canada.
Speaker 3 (07:02):
So not stuff that gets you, my betty.
Speaker 1 (07:05):
In other words, well, you're not an ice wine drinker, no, yeah,
so anyway, but you probably would like ice wine actually,
given your reclivity for sweet things.
Speaker 2 (07:17):
So one percent is what I come down to. That's
what it means to you. One percent more on stuff.
Speaker 1 (07:22):
Now, nobody wants to pay more for stuff, but it's
not that big of a deal in the grand scheme
of things. So I don't know if you're going to
find this liberating. Probably not, but it also isn't something
to be freaked out by. You see what's going on
in the financial markets. You hear the you know, scared
turtles good.
Speaker 2 (07:41):
I didn't see this copied, And.
Speaker 1 (07:44):
Again that's a that's a guy reporting or running money
on Wall Street.
Speaker 3 (07:48):
May or may not be still wearing masks multiple.
Speaker 2 (07:51):
Yeah, it could be so anyway.
Speaker 1 (07:54):
The original Liberation Day on April second was a shock
to the system because people were not paying attention to
what President Trump have been saying. This is a minor
little nudge to the system with again people that really
have not been paying attention to what President Trump has
been saying. Nothing to freak out about. Nothing that big
of that will be that big of a deal in
(08:15):
your life. My second takeaway for you today eight days,
twenty one to thirty four miles, lots of frustration. So
tonight at eight what's been deemed to be a necessary
evil set to take place the full closure of one
of the most traveled roads in Palm Beach County for
eight days, creating what amounts to either twenty one or
thirty four miles worth of detours and without a doubt,
(08:37):
hours of added frustration navigating them over the next week.
An average is seventy thousand daily drivers, or approximately seven
percent of Palm Beach County's daily commuters, are impacted by
the closure of North Lake Boulevard and D Line Highway.
Current estimate suggests that travel times will be at best
just over half an hour longer, with travel times between
(08:57):
seven a to nine A and four p to six
P your highest travel time next week, drive time being
over an hour more easy. So if you're part of
the seven percent and you have to get from point
A to point B, none of it is going to
be fun. But avoiding driving during those four hours seven
A to nine A four p to six P, meaning
(09:20):
going to work an hour earlier for example, or an
hour later for example, or coming home an hour sooner
or later would be the key to actually bean in
one of those locations, or just being in your car
during the length of time so that it literally will
double your length of time in drive times is what
we're taking a look at here. My third takeaway for
(09:41):
you today, the wind is our friend, and so as
we are entering the second most active month of hurricane
season today doing so with some historically good news.
Speaker 2 (09:51):
Not only has the.
Speaker 1 (09:52):
First third of hurricane season been denigned thus far had
tipped to a steady stream of Saharan de but it's
actually been the least active hurricane season three July since
two thousand and nine. That's by way of total name
storms and relative strength of the storms that have formed. Additionally,
we're starting the second most active month of hurricane season
(10:15):
with the National Hurricane Center saying.
Speaker 2 (10:17):
Yeah, you know what, We're good.
Speaker 1 (10:19):
We're clear for the next seven days, no new activity,
in a large part due to those consistent clouds of
Saharan dust. And that leaves this year shaping up most
similarly to what we saw three years ago, not two
thousand and nine. I wish, I'm hoping it goes that way,
but actually what we're seeing looks very similar to twenty
twenty two. That year we had fourteen named storms, and
(10:41):
that is less than what had been called for this year.
So I mean just the total number, Okay, fine, but
we don't want well, we actually got that season. That
was the year where laid in the season all kinds
of activity, including Hurricane Ian and that rare November hurricane
in the coal that ended up hitting Viera Beach. So
let's hope the wind remains our friend and we don't
(11:03):
have to repeat
Hey, thanks for listening, and welcome back to the Brian
Mud Show.
Speaker 2 (00:07):
Time now for today's top three takeaways.
Speaker 1 (00:11):
Yeah, hey there, And as we get going on this
a faraday, how liberated are you feeling?
Speaker 2 (00:16):
You feel liberated? Joel?
Speaker 3 (00:18):
Well, I haven't checked the futures yet.
Speaker 2 (00:22):
That determines your your feeling of liberation, does it?
Speaker 3 (00:26):
Let me tell you two seconds hang out here we go.
Speaker 1 (00:30):
What what number in particular determines your level of liberation?
Speaker 2 (00:35):
This would be my question.
Speaker 4 (00:39):
Oh my gosh, No, not feeling very liberated right now.
Speaker 2 (00:42):
It's not that bad. It's not that and that's kind
of my point.
Speaker 1 (00:46):
So today is Liberation Day two point zero or and
talk about north Lake's nightmare and also some friendly wind.
Friendly wind not the kind that comes to Joel's mind anyway.
So yeah, today is Liberation Day two point zero. And
one of the things that just it confounds me to
know end is how people are ever surprised by President Trump?
(01:06):
He is so transparent. How long has he been talking
about August first? But nevertheless, Fox says, Jared Halpern has
the latest from the White House.
Speaker 3 (01:15):
A lot of.
Speaker 2 (01:15):
Goods imported to the US are now facing higher tariffs
as part of President Trump's agenda to rebalance trade relationships.
Speaker 4 (01:23):
You know, we're taking in literally trillions of dollars for
the country. This is making our country very rich and
respected again.
Speaker 1 (01:32):
You know, you go back to the original Liberation Day
and one of the things I mentioned in the immediate
aftermath with the reaction, which again proved to be a
historic buying opportunity for investors if you were savvy at.
Speaker 2 (01:46):
That moment in time, was how surprised people were.
Speaker 1 (01:51):
If you were listening, you might recall I went back
to mid February and I was pulling out material from Trump,
including stuff that he had on the White House website
that said, if you do not agree to these deals,
here are the terrors that are coming on April second.
Speaker 2 (02:09):
And people get to April second, we didn't expect all that.
What are you talking about? What did you think was coming?
What did you think was going to Well, there were
so much more significant than I thought.
Speaker 1 (02:22):
Okay, and then it turned out to be nowhere near
as big of a deal right in the end. Now today,
August first, how long has Trump been talking about August first?
You're laughing, Joel, since he extended it originally. Yeah, and
quite a bit over the past few weeks. Right, oh yeah,
(02:43):
including prolifically this week throughout the week talking about August
first being a great day. What did you think was
going to happen? The Art of the Deal was written
in nineteen eighty seven. This just did somebody responsible for
running money. Whether you're involved in government and trade negotiations
(03:06):
in a foreign country, if you're involved on things that
you know, Wall Street, any kind of money, right, you
might want to read the book or you might just
want to pay attention because the guy is as transparent
as can be.
Speaker 2 (03:18):
So here we are. It's Liberation Day two point zero.
Speaker 1 (03:21):
You have some minor freakouts happening in the financial markets. Now,
the stock market reaction based on futures nowhere near as
severe as the original Liberation Day, but you are seeing
DOWN futures off over four hundred points right now, NASSEC
futures off about two hundred and fifty. We'll see what
people again, the stories were surprised.
Speaker 2 (03:43):
Again.
Speaker 1 (03:43):
I'm confounded by their surprise. Now, let me tell you
what this actually means to you, because I spend time
breaking down all this. What this means is that company
a country is responsible for just under forty percent of
all US trade now have significantly higher tariffs in place, Okay,
(04:07):
by my estimates. With the inclusion of the South Korea
trade deal, which was announced yesterday for actually that was
when I think it's Wednesday, trade deals have been worked
out with countries representing approximately forty six and a half
percent of US trade. Okay, So like deals that are
are done out of the picture of forty six and
a half. On Thursday, there was another major trade development
(04:30):
as President Trump announced a temporary ninety day trade deal
with Mexico, under which existing tariff rates will be left
in place, and in return, Mexico agreed to drop what
President Trump called non tariff trade barriers. He said there
were many of those, so over the next ninety days,
these non tariff trade barriers by Mexico won't be dropped.
Speaker 2 (04:52):
So in other words, you're what do you get from Mexico, Jill.
Speaker 3 (04:57):
I think you get the advocados from Mexico.
Speaker 1 (05:00):
Those and likelier to kil it to will not be
impacted by Liberation day two point zero today, no impact there.
Now that brings the total amount of US trade that's
unimpacted today, I come to sixty two point two percent
to be precise. All right, So for over sixty two
percent of the stuff you buy that is imported, no
(05:22):
impact today. Now for the remaining thirty eight percent or
so of the country's trade that is impacted today much
higher tariffs. But the real question what does this actually
mean to you? So let me boil this down a
little bit more. The actual answer is about one percent.
As in consumer prices on the stuff we buy, that's
about one percent higher than it is today today with
(05:43):
Trump's tariffs. About sixty percent of the increase has been
absorbed by companies, about fifteen percent has been absorbed by
foreign exporters, with around a quarter of the remaining cost
that has been passed along to you. So if that
holds through with what we're seeing here in Liberation day
two point zero, the increases that kick in today, with
(06:05):
the percentage of deals that are impacted by higher tariffs,
it'll work out to a consumer price increase of right
around one percent. Like I was going through the numbers
on this, I kept coming out to like one point something.
Anywhere from I guys was like one one, as high
as like one eight. I'm just it's gonna be somewhere
right around one percent, And that's also, by the way,
(06:26):
uneven based on what it is you're buying. For example,
if all you're doing buying those avocadas from Mexico, no impact, right,
But if you're buying what maple syrup from Canada. Joel's
favorite Canadian product is maple syrup.
Speaker 4 (06:41):
I can't think of what else they what else do
we get from Canada food wise? I know there's probably
a bunch of stuff, and I'm.
Speaker 2 (06:49):
A lot of people in season we get a lot
of that.
Speaker 3 (06:51):
Well I meant food.
Speaker 1 (06:53):
No, I know that we get a lot of I
mean most of it is energy and like forestry, lumber,
that kind of thing.
Speaker 2 (07:00):
There's a lot of what goes all in Canada.
Speaker 3 (07:02):
So not stuff that gets you, my betty.
Speaker 1 (07:05):
In other words, well, you're not an ice wine drinker, no, yeah,
so anyway, but you probably would like ice wine actually,
given your reclivity for sweet things.
Speaker 2 (07:17):
So one percent is what I come down to. That's
what it means to you. One percent more on stuff.
Speaker 1 (07:22):
Now, nobody wants to pay more for stuff, but it's
not that big of a deal in the grand scheme
of things. So I don't know if you're going to
find this liberating. Probably not, but it also isn't something
to be freaked out by. You see what's going on
in the financial markets. You hear the you know, scared
turtles good.
Speaker 2 (07:41):
I didn't see this copied, And.
Speaker 1 (07:44):
Again that's a that's a guy reporting or running money
on Wall Street.
Speaker 3 (07:48):
May or may not be still wearing masks multiple.
Speaker 2 (07:51):
Yeah, it could be so anyway.
Speaker 1 (07:54):
The original Liberation Day on April second was a shock
to the system because people were not paying attention to
what President Trump have been saying. This is a minor
little nudge to the system with again people that really
have not been paying attention to what President Trump has
been saying. Nothing to freak out about. Nothing that big
of that will be that big of a deal in
(08:15):
your life. My second takeaway for you today eight days,
twenty one to thirty four miles, lots of frustration. So
tonight at eight what's been deemed to be a necessary
evil set to take place the full closure of one
of the most traveled roads in Palm Beach County for
eight days, creating what amounts to either twenty one or
thirty four miles worth of detours and without a doubt,
(08:37):
hours of added frustration navigating them over the next week.
An average is seventy thousand daily drivers, or approximately seven
percent of Palm Beach County's daily commuters, are impacted by
the closure of North Lake Boulevard and D Line Highway.
Current estimate suggests that travel times will be at best
just over half an hour longer, with travel times between
(08:57):
seven a to nine A and four p to six
P your highest travel time next week, drive time being
over an hour more easy. So if you're part of
the seven percent and you have to get from point
A to point B, none of it is going to
be fun. But avoiding driving during those four hours seven
A to nine A four p to six P, meaning
(09:20):
going to work an hour earlier for example, or an
hour later for example, or coming home an hour sooner
or later would be the key to actually bean in
one of those locations, or just being in your car
during the length of time so that it literally will
double your length of time in drive times is what
we're taking a look at here. My third takeaway for
(09:41):
you today, the wind is our friend, and so as
we are entering the second most active month of hurricane
season today doing so with some historically good news.
Speaker 2 (09:51):
Not only has the.
Speaker 1 (09:52):
First third of hurricane season been denigned thus far had
tipped to a steady stream of Saharan de but it's
actually been the least active hurricane season three July since
two thousand and nine. That's by way of total name
storms and relative strength of the storms that have formed. Additionally,
we're starting the second most active month of hurricane season
(10:15):
with the National Hurricane Center saying.
Speaker 2 (10:17):
Yeah, you know what, We're good.
Speaker 1 (10:19):
We're clear for the next seven days, no new activity,
in a large part due to those consistent clouds of
Saharan dust. And that leaves this year shaping up most
similarly to what we saw three years ago, not two
thousand and nine. I wish, I'm hoping it goes that way,
but actually what we're seeing looks very similar to twenty
twenty two. That year we had fourteen named storms, and
(10:41):
that is less than what had been called for this year.
So I mean just the total number, Okay, fine, but
we don't want well, we actually got that season. That
was the year where laid in the season all kinds
of activity, including Hurricane Ian and that rare November hurricane
in the coal that ended up hitting Viera Beach. So
let's hope the wind remains our friend and we don't
(11:03):
have to repeat
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