Q&A – Are Hurricane Seasons Less Active Without Preseason Activity?

Since 1966 there have been 19 seasons without a named storm by June 4th.

Episode Transcript

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You have questions, Brian has answers. It's time for today's
Q and A of today.

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This is the Brian Mud Show and Today's.

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Q to A. Our hurricane season's less active without pre
season activity. This is brought to you by my listen
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(00:43):
talkback feature. Just go to WJNO or Vero Patriot inside
of the iHeartRadio app. We would love it, and by we,
I mean myself and Joel. He's been on the fence
of times, but I think I've gotten him there. I
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and I. Today's note this at Brian Mud Radio. Are
hurricane seasons less active when there aren't preseason storms? Does

(01:28):
seem logical, right, If we don't have preseason hurricane tropical activity,
bound to be fewer overall storms. Right. Well, Sometimes perception
and reality are not on the same page. In this case, however,
they are, they are one. As I mentioned in my
annual June hurricane history story, which is what prompted today's note,

(01:49):
about three percent of all activity that occurs actually happens
prior to hurricane season. So that necessarily does mean unbalanced.
There is less activity that happens during your typical hurricane
season if you don't have anything before it starts. But
the overall historical trend is actually much more significant than

(02:10):
three percent. Seasons with preseason namestorms are usually the result
of especially favorable conditions for development, like warmer sea surface temperatures,
reduced wind shear, and almost always that's translated into above
average activity throughout the season. So about that the historical

(02:31):
average And I'm for this, I am framing it. You know,
we have record keeping all the way back to eighteen
fifty one, but I pick up at the satellite age.
Even with newer technology, there are some things that you know,
they're picking up on now that maybe even ten twenty
years ago they wouldn't have. But certainly prior to the

(02:51):
satellite age in nineteen sixty six, I mean, Laura knows
how anything's popped up out there that they just had
no clue about because theydn't have eyes on them. Anyway.
The historical average nineteen sixty six to twenty twenty four
total name storms when there is at least one preseason
storm fifteen okay fifteen when we get at least something

(03:13):
before the season starts. And then the historical average for
total name storms when there is not preseason activity twelve.
So yeah, the implications have been significant. Three fewer name
storms and over twenty percent less activity on average, but
of course, averages in reality not always aligned. And on
that note, despite not having any preseason tropical activity last year, well,

(03:39):
we ended up with an above average season. We had
eighteen named storms. Also, by the way, in twenty twenty
two we had fourteen. That was another year we didn't
have anything in June. Speaking of outliers, like the biggest
outlier to this conversation ever, the second most active hurricane

(03:59):
season ACT two thousand and five. Remember that the end
of that two YU four five cycle two thousand and five,
the second most active year first name storm did not
develop until June eighth, and that year also holds the
record for the highest number of hurricanes fifteen, and is
tied for the highest number of majors at seven. So

(04:19):
you can't necessarily put your eggs in that basket for
things working out well. But despite there being no hard
and fast rules, not having the preseason name storm has
produced an average of three fewer name storms and most
commonly led to average two below average activity. To give
you an idea, since nineteen sixty six, there have been

(04:39):
nineteen seasons without a name storm by today's date June fourth,
The average number of name storms in those seasons nine
just nine. Only four have produced above average activity overall
nineteen seventy one, twenty thirteen, twenty twenty two, in twenty
twenty four. What a good track record. Although you'll notice

(05:01):
that there is what some might believe to be a
recent trend that has emerged here making it less likely
that maybe we get low activity. There is one date, like,
if you're like, what is a date that you can
point to where if you get to that date and
nothing has happened yet, things look really good. The answer

(05:24):
is June twenty second. June twenty second, we've not had
an above average hurricane season where there hasn't been a
name storm prior to June twenty second. Not to say
it can happen, right, I mean, you always have first
and outliers, But you got to like the odds if
we could get that far into the season without a storm. Now,

(05:46):
as always, you've got a lot of people that are
quick to remind you that it only takes one, and
of course that's true. But it's also true that if
you have your storms that form period, the odds of
the one finding you or anybody else for that matter
much less. So I always like looking at that stuff
in perspective. We're off to an encouraging start.