Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
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Speaker 2 (00:14):
You have questions, Brian has answers. It's time for today's
Q and A of today. This is the Brian Mud Show.
Today's Q and A. Can Uran use dirty bombs?
Speaker 1 (00:26):
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Speaker 3 (01:12):
Brian, my name is Randy. What's to stop Iran from
using some of the uranium they have already partially enriched
and using it as a dirty bomb? As far as
I can see, the answer is nothing. What's your answer?
Speaker 1 (01:27):
Yeah? So, with Iran's nuclear enrichment facilities having been theoretically
destroyed Saturday by the US strike using the mops, are
you still down at the mops, Joe?
Speaker 3 (01:35):
Yeah, you know me.
Speaker 1 (01:36):
The threat of a potential dirty bomb has been said
to have increased. Reports exist of the potential for Ron
to have moved enriched uranium away from its now destroyed
nuclear facilities prior to Saturday strike. This claim has also
been cited by the Iranian government. Now it's a potential
development that is disputed by the United States. In fact,
(01:57):
Secretary of State Mark Rubio had this to say on Sunday.
He said, I doubt they moved it. They can't move
anything right now inside Iran. I mean, the minute a
truck starts driving somewhere. The Israelis have seen it, and
they've targeted it and they've taken it out. Thus, it
could be possible that Iran tried to relocate uranium only
to have had the transports taken out by Israel as well. Nevertheless,
(02:20):
what if Iran did manage to sneak out enriched uranium,
what are the implications? Well, first of all, even if
you're enriched uranium was successfully relocated by Iran, it's ineffectual
on its own, as is rarely intelligence analyst Ronan Solomon stated,
having enriched uranium is and this is a quote from him,
(02:40):
like having fuel without a car. Even if they have uranium,
they can't do a lot with it unless they have
built something we don't know about on the small scale.
And on that note, Iran is suggesting their nuclear program
lives on. Quoting the advisor to Iran Supreme leader, he said,
even assuming the complete destruction of the sites, the game
(03:00):
is not over because enriched materials, indigenous knowledge, and political
will remain intact. Okay, so about that, are Iranian dirty
bombs a potential threat?
Speaker 3 (03:13):
Well?
Speaker 1 (03:13):
Prior to the US strike of Ron's nuclear facilities, several experts,
including Michael Rubin from the American Enterprise Institute were warning
of the potential for the use of dirty bombs, which,
by the way, if you're like, what exactly is a
dirty bomb, it's defined as a type of radiological dispersal
device that combines a conventional explosive with radioactive material Inventaably,
(03:36):
despite concerns of the use of dirty bombs dating back
to the Cold War days, no dirty bomb has ever
been successfully deployed. It's never happened. You let me guess
your guest was so good earlier, what two million up
to million until untill start at twenty five? Is that
somewhere in between twenty five to two million. So yeah,
(03:59):
never as happen, and it's not for a lack of trying.
There are five publicly known unsuccessful attempts to by the way,
that happened within the United States. The first I Rock
in nineteen eighty seven. A Rock tested dirty bombs but
found low levels of radiation that would have been insufficient
to create a significant impact. I used. That's something that's
(04:20):
worth coming back to in the moment. Then you have
the Chechen plot of nineteen ninety five. Chechens threatened a
dirty bomb attack a small amount of radioactive material was
found outside Moscow, but was not equipped to any explosive devices.
Then the Chechens were added again. In ninety eight, there
was an alleged dirty bomb that was placed near a
railroad in Chechnia. Now the Russian government is said to
(04:43):
have recovered the device without issue. They never disclosed what
happened there, so we don't know if it was actually
a radioactive bomb or not. Then you moved to the
United States. In two thousand and two, Jose Padilla, a
US it is sen link to Al Qaeda, was arrested
in Chicago for plotting what was deemed to be a
(05:05):
credible dirty bomb attack. However, when arrested, Padea lacked any
radioactive material. And similarly the Duran plot of two thousand
and four, this a British citizen linked to al Qaeda
who is arrested while planning a series of dirty bomb
attacks on the IMF, the World Bank, and the New
(05:25):
York Stock Exchange. Again not found with radioactive material. Okay,
so there are two especially interesting dynamics in play here. First,
while there's been a proliferation of enriched uranium in Iran,
the world's leading sponsor of terror over the previous two decades,
we've not had so much as a credible dirty bomb
plot detected, let alone successfully carried out over this time. Second,
(05:46):
it's been twenty one years since there's been any publicly
known credible threat. Doesn't mean in real time there isn't
risk that we're not aware of. However, what it does
speak to is the complication of carrying out an attack,
but also the potential risk reward from say a terrorist perspective.
And I'll explain, as I mentioned in the Iraq dirty
(06:07):
bomb test, it failed because the amount of radiation damage
caused in their testing just wasn't that substantial. And related
in that Duran Barrett trial in two thousand and the
trial itself actually concluded in two thousand and six, he
was rested in two thousand and four. Experts that testified
to that trial estimated that had he been successful in
(06:28):
carrying out his attacks, only approximately five hundred people and
most would have been exposed to radiation with minimal loss
of life. And we're talking about attacks again taking place
in London and Manhattan, so this could be the bigger thing.
The idea of a dirty bomb potentially sounds worse than
(06:49):
the reality of carried out, which is whine attack maybe
has never been successfully carried out. It's an important dynamic
given the threats the world has long face from Islamic
terrorism that has been card read out condonly by what
suicide bombers who just want to cause maximum debt. So,
in other words, these are people that are not worried
about their well being. If they could use some uranium
to really mess things up in a big way, you'd
(07:09):
imagine they would try to do it right. So, while
a dirty bomb is simpler than the nuclear warhead, still
requires a heck of a lot of expertise to handle
and then equip and then disperse radioactive material effectively. And
it's believed that Israeli strikes early on targeting key scientists
associated with the Iron nuclear program were timed in part
(07:32):
to guard against the increased likelihood of Iran firing off
dirty ballistic missiles. What they were concerned about what would
be Okay, let's say they got a bunch of uranium
on blistic missiles. Then even if we were to shoot
them out of the sky with the iron dome or
the arrow, now you've got some radiation the atmosphere. That
that was the biggest point of concern, and so that
was all part of what the aim to minimize the
(07:53):
risk of early on. So when you put this all together,
the level of expertise needed to pull off these dirty
bomb type of attacks and the fact that it's never
actually happened despite a proliferation of nuclear materials, it kind
of gives you the idea. Doesn't mean it can happen,
doesn't mean it won't happen. However, history and the facts
(08:16):
as we understand them speak to it being an unlikely outcome.
Not to mention one that if it happened, as we're
talking about, you know, trying to make the ceasefire stick
and potentially peace in the war by the end of
the day, that would surely mean the end of the Ayatola.
If any dirty bomb attack we're coming out of Iran