Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:04):
You have questions, Brian has answers. It's time for today's
Q and A of today. This is the Brian Mud Show.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
Now today's Q and A is the US dollar at
risk of no longer being the reserve currency. This is
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(00:32):
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Speaker 1 (00:47):
Q and A.
Speaker 2 (00:48):
Today's note is this. I'm a longtime listener. Highly respect
your research ethic. I certainly appreciate that the talk of
the dollar being removed as the world standard has subsided
a little bit, but I'm still concerned as the consequences
seem devastating to our country into every citizen. But do
you please discuss what would need to happen in the
likelihood of this happening. Thanks for all you do, well,
(01:10):
thank you for being there. Certainly do appreciate it. And actually,
you know, this kind of ties into what President Trump
was up to yesterday visiting the Federal Reserve. One of
the big reasons he wants interest rates lower not just
so that hopefully things are cheaper for you, but also
because the cost of servicing the federal debt would be
a lot less. As Trump said, every point is worth
three hundred and sixty five billion dollars a year.
Speaker 1 (01:33):
So we want to get the rates down per year
in debt service.
Speaker 2 (01:37):
So every one percent in interest rate the Federal Reserve
right now, the amount they charge banks to lend money
to you four and a quarter to four and a
half percent. What he's saying is every one percent in
interest rate there, it equals that three hundred and forty
billion dollars a year in extra cost for taxpayers to
service the federal debt. And so as we are taking
(01:58):
a look at the dollar and you're concerns about its
state around the world as the reserve currency, I think
the risk of it going away has been way over sold.
Speaker 1 (02:10):
Way over sold. The risk of it happening is in zero.
Speaker 2 (02:14):
But when I was trying to think of something that
didn't have a zero risk but also was not going
to be happening, a tsunami hitting South Florida came up.
Speaker 1 (02:22):
In theory.
Speaker 2 (02:23):
It's possible, it's once never been recorded to have happened,
But that's kind of where we are, I think, with
the dollar losing its status, about the odds of these
tsunami hitting South Florida wiping us out sometime soon. The
reason there had recently been chatter about the US dollar
losing its status was because of what someone dubbed the
(02:47):
Rio reset, the recent the seventeenth annual meeting of the
Bricks Countries or Brazil, Russia, China and South Africa.
Speaker 1 (02:56):
It was hyped by some.
Speaker 2 (02:57):
To be this meeting that would you know, the Kabba
would get together and they be able to come up
with something different the US dollar would lose its status.
In reality, it was the least relevant of these seventeen
meetings today, In fact, so irrelevant that for the first time,
Chinese President Shishi Ping didn't even attend, and neither, by
(03:17):
the way, did Russian President of Vladimir putin at least
in person. He did it virtually and made an address.
So when the two biggest players don't even show up,
I mean that kind of gives you an idea. And
in fact, all that really came out of this year's
meeting headlines like this, bricks is sliding toward irrelevance. The
Rio Summit made that clear. So it's actually going the
(03:40):
other way. They are less relevant than they used to be.
And before going any further, probably important to take a
step back just to explain with the US dollar being
the world's reserve currency actually means. This is something that
came out of what is known as the Britain Woods
Agreement during World War Two.
Speaker 1 (03:56):
Bottom line is.
Speaker 2 (03:56):
This, prior to World War Two and at the eye
onset of it, gold was the world reserve.
Speaker 1 (04:03):
However, only so much gold. It's World War two.
Speaker 2 (04:07):
Things have to happen, So how are we going to
be able around the world to transact It's like going
to being gold. And so you had the Allies that
got together and said, okay, we need the United States
to be the world's reserve and that's how the US
dollar became the world's reserve currency because we were able
to facilitate the transactions that kept World War two on track,
(04:30):
and it stuck after we won World War Two, and
so that continues to this day. So the US dollar
as the world's reserve currency, What the heck does that mean.
It means that if you're buying a barrel of oil
in Texas, in South Florida, or in Vietnam, you're using
US dollars.
Speaker 1 (04:48):
Same deal.
Speaker 2 (04:49):
Like you have to speak English, if you're a pilot,
if you're an air traffic controller, you have to speak English. Again,
doesn't matter where you are in the world, you have
to because that is the standard. Know what that means
is anytime you buy any commodity, no matter where it is,
you have to convert your native currency to the US
dollar and then that is the price that is ultimately
(05:11):
paid for it. And so that creates a constant demand
of dollars. There's no way really for people around the
world to get away from it. So if we lost
that status, yeah, you lose tons of demand for the dollar.
Speaker 1 (05:22):
Maybe you have a collapse.
Speaker 2 (05:23):
Some people point towards Germany, you know, speaking of the
Weimar Republic that led to Hitler and all that. There's
no comparison here for any number of reasons. Germany back
then after World War One doesn't hold the US as jockstrapped. Today,
the US economy accounts for over twenty six percent of
the world's economy.
Speaker 1 (05:41):
We're over a quarter of it, just US.
Speaker 2 (05:43):
The US dollar fifty eight percent of the entire global
wealth reserves. Okay, So again, if you took every single
currency around the world combined it together, you get to
forty two percent against our fifty eight percent of the dollar.
The closest you get to with any other currency China.
They're nineteen percent of the world's economy. Their currency, the yuan,
(06:05):
is two percent two percent of global reserves. And who
the heck is going to want to rally around China
other than Iran, in Russia and North Korea. Yeah, they're
racket man, he'll want to do it. But no, you're
not getting there, right, You're not getting there politically, you're
not getting there economically. And so this, you know, there
(06:25):
are other reasons, but above and beyond this is why
you're not going to see the US dollar lose its
status as a reserve currency, because there isn't a viable alternative.
Speaker 1 (06:36):
And people who talk this stuff up are just hyping.
Speaker 2 (06:39):
Usually they're trying to sell gold, which is one of
my real annoyances in life. If you want to buy gold,
that's a cool thing, but you should not be scared
into doing things like that. And I don't like it
when you know there are some out there that tried
to do things to make you do those emotional decisions.
But anyway, there is one wild card in this conversation.
You know, short of us getting involved in somehow or
(07:01):
another losing World War III, which for the near term
is what it would take for the dollar to lose
its status, the wild card here is cryptocurrency. So digital
currencies are obviously a bigger and bigger player all the time.
You're seeing more and more governments cutting hours. We just
passed a law to regulate it last Friday. You're seeing
(07:24):
that adaptation take on some interesting forms. And so the
question is could crypto one day disrupt the way that
things are done and maybe a bigcoin, for example, replace
the dollar.
Speaker 1 (07:37):
I don't know.
Speaker 2 (07:38):
There's so much to get from here to there. It's
not going to happen anytime for the foreseeable. To give
you an idea on now, one the total market cap
of all cryptocurrencies around the world is about four trillion
dollars a lot of money, right, but that's less than
the value of video and Vidia is worth more than
the entire universe of cryptocurrencies. So there's nowhere near enough
(08:00):
crypto basically to be able to replace the US dollar,
not even close. Doesn't scratch the surface of it again
in time maybe, and that would be the more interesting
angle here. So anyway, hope that makes you feel better
about the status of the dollar, and you know, things
not not going to hell in a handbasket any time soon,
(08:21):
at least not because of that one anyway. Securing America,
the Trump administration no warding me one point twenty six
billion dollar contract to defense contract or Acquisition Logistics to
build a five thousand immigration detention facility at Fort Bliss
Army Base near El Paso, reflecting the Trump administration zero
(08:43):
tolerance policy on the illegal immigration, including its efforts to
seal the US Mexican border. The new detention facility expected
to how single adult detainees and will be managed by
Immigration and Customs enforcement, with critics already questioning what the
conditions will be like at the facility.
Speaker 1 (09:00):
It's said to be completed in twenty twenty seven.
Speaker 2 (09:02):
We're also told that US soldiers may serve as security
as National guardsmen have at the immigration detainment camp dubbed
Alligator Alcatraz deep in the Florida Everglades. Additional military bases
are also set to host camps for immigrant prisoners, including
Camp Aterbury in Indiana and for Dix in New Jersey.
Speaker 1 (09:22):
Jeff Monosso, Fox News