October 3, 2024 • 9 mins
The first VP debate didn’t take place until 1976. It’s a relatively recent development in presidential politics.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
I'm a lotest answers to questions you won't here anywhere else.
Speaker 2 (00:07):
The Q and A of the day reaction from our
government to Brian mud show.
Speaker 3 (00:11):
I don't get that today's Q and A do the
VP debate matter? This has brought to you by Melissa
as check Mark Collections. Each day a feature a listener
question sent by one of these methods. You may email
me Brian Mudd at iHeartMedia dot com, hit me up
on social at Brian Mudradio. You may also use the
iHeartRadio talkback feature. Just go to w JNO or via
(00:32):
Patriot inside of the iHeartRadio app. Follow us once you
get there. Once you do, look for the little microphone button.
See it, tap it You mainla down a message right there,
maybe for a future Q and A. In today's note
is this Brian? I enjoy your show usually agree with
your analysis. However, I would like to challenge something you
said about the debate. You mentioned that this might be
the VP debate to make a difference in the race.
(00:54):
I mean, sure, just about anything as possible, I suppose. However,
how realistic is that train of thought? Really? We know
the debates haven't moved the needle in the past, and
these two are lesser knowns than most running mates. My
gut says ratings were low and that the only people
tuning into the debate were the passionate basis of both
(01:15):
candidates that aren't persuadable anyway. Okay, well, we do have
an answer actually to one of those now, and the
ratings are good. Ratings are getting nearly fifty million people,
two to forty nine million, So there is that. But
today's note is in response to this, to this comment
that I made in my takeaways yesterday, I said, this
just might have been the first vice presidential debate in
(01:36):
the American history that mattered. And that's for one very
specific reason. Everything that Donald Trump isn't that makes many
Americans in the middle uncomfortable with him.
Speaker 1 (01:45):
JD.
Speaker 3 (01:45):
Vans is, and last night he proved it. Young, precise, humble,
and obviously capable. Now I'm going to start by helping
assist you in making your point to counter my point.
I'm going to give you some more ammunition encounter. When
I what I said, there is only one VP debate
(02:05):
in American history that had higher ratings than one of
the presidential debates within the same cycle. There's actually one
VP debate that out did the presidential debates within a
given cycle, and Joel knows the answer.
Speaker 1 (02:24):
I have no idea. I'm sitting here. Maybe if you
gave me some hints, but we don't have that kind
of time.
Speaker 2 (02:31):
I wouldn't expect I wouldn't expect you to get it.
Speaker 3 (02:34):
But if you want to hint, this is the one
that made Tina Fey famous to the masses or infamous
and of anybody.
Speaker 1 (02:43):
Well that that makes it. That makes it a lot easier.
So what's like, was that that's a two thousand My gosh,
that was eight.
Speaker 2 (02:52):
There you go, you know, yeah, all right, that was good.
Speaker 3 (02:57):
Yeah, the two thousand and eight VP debate between Joe
Biden and Sarah Palin, which drew sixty nine point nine
million viewers, top to all three of the Obama McCain
debates that cycle.
Speaker 2 (03:12):
See Joel's surprised by it. It's a shock. People are
very excited about Joe Biden. It's what though.
Speaker 3 (03:19):
Obviously a lot of people are tuning in and see
how Palin would do. And uh not that I think
that Joe Biden probably remembers that debate any longer. But
even if he did, I don't think even he would
credit his debate performance as a key to Barack Obama's
win in that cycle. So to the point that the
listeners making today and that I've always said, which is,
(03:42):
you know, so much is made of running mates, and
it's almost always nonsense because they don't have much of
an impact. That would be the greatest example, because there's
no indication that there's any movement in the presidential race
following the most watched vice presidential ever. So if that
debate didn't move the needle, why would this one? Right? Okay,
(04:07):
so every election cycle I am quick to point out
how the hype leading up to the selection of a
running mate doesn't actually translate to results. Take for example,
my story entitled the lack of impact vice presidential picks
half on election outcomes. When I mentioned this, what was this?
I think just over a month ago I pointed this out?
Or no, it would have been back in July. Rather,
(04:27):
I'm sorry, this would have been in early July. I said,
In reality, there's no evidence that are running made in
either party has had any material impact on the outcome
of an election, and at least several generations. For those
who question that statement, answer this question, which presidential election
have you voted for president due to the running mate?
(04:48):
No running mate has had any evidence impact where it
matters most, the electoral college in recent political history. To
find the last presidential election cycle where there's evidence that
a VP pick impact of the outcome in a safe
you'd have to travel back to the nineteen sixty presidential
election when JFK's running mate Lindon Johnson won his home
stay of Texas.
Speaker 2 (05:08):
Okay.
Speaker 3 (05:08):
So, and as it pertains that nineteen sixty election, Johnson's
influence didn't have anything to do with the debate. That's
for another reason, Joel. It's like, oh my gosh, what
are you doing to me today?
Speaker 2 (05:22):
The first VP debate that took place? When was it?
Speaker 1 (05:27):
Oh my gosh, how long have are we talking about?
The first one that was televised?
Speaker 2 (05:31):
No, first one ever?
Speaker 1 (05:35):
Somewhere in the nineteen twenties.
Speaker 3 (05:37):
Okay, it actually was the coincided with being televised because
it didn't come until nineteen seventy six. We didn't have
a single VP debate in American history until nineteen seventy six.
It's been a relatively recent development in presidential politics. But
there's a key dynamic that's in play when we're talking
about debates, and it's something that I emphasized following the
(06:00):
Harris Trump debate when I said that for ninety six
percent of the voters, the debate was political theater, with
people just kind of rooting for their respective teams, that
the debate wasn't about you me, swifties, because we already
knew how we are going to vote. It was about
four percent because that's roughly the percentage of people who
went into that debate without a preferred presidential candidate. And
(06:21):
at that point, it's what happens with the four percenters
in swing states that'll decide this election.
Speaker 2 (06:26):
Okay.
Speaker 3 (06:26):
So it was in that immediate post debate analysis that
I highlighted how truly undecided voters, the four percenters as
I've called them, saw the debate. It was different than
the general public perception of it having been a big
win for Harris. The consensus and focus groups and in
the immediate pulling to emerge was that undecided voters aren't
(06:48):
undecided because they don't know what Trump's about. They're undecided
because they aren't comfortable with Harris and they were looking
for her to kind of make the case and see
if they could get comfortable with her Informationally, my thesis
from the previous debate held preceding the VP debate, Kamala
(07:09):
Harris gained zero point eight percent on average in national polls. However,
within swing states she held an electoral college advantage preceding
her debate with Trump, but Trump held the advantage before
the VP debate. Why because the very few undecided voters
who made up their minds in swing states did gravitate
towards Trump. Here's where this ties together with today's question.
(07:31):
Remember how four percent of the voters in the Real
Clear Politics average of polls were undecided before the presidential debate. Well,
that number was at three point four percent as of Tuesday.
Only zero point six percent made up their minds between
the presidential debate and the VP debate. Here are two
reasons why the VP debate may have mattered this time. One,
(07:52):
undecided voters are among the most likely actually to have
tuned into the debate. But also two, what happens after
debate these days has the potential to matter more than
what happened during the debate. A Pew Research Center study
has found that, aside from the ninety sixth election, at
least fifty percent of undecided voters have said debates are
helpful in making a decision about who to vote for. Historically,
(08:16):
that's been exclusive to the presidential debates. However, as opposed
to the usual three to four percent or three to
four presidential debate debates preceding the election, we only had
one this time between Harrison Trump. Even in COVID year
twenty twenty, you had two presidential debates. So what they
did is that inherently put more weight for the undecided
voters on the VP debate because there aren't other major
(08:39):
catalysts and major opportunities to see the candidates square off.
The other reason comes down to the Super Bowl commercial factor.
The reason why companies have most recently forked over seven
million dollars for thirty second Super Bowl adds is not
because that is value based. That is not something where
they're getting their money out of it with the people
(09:01):
who watch it live during the game.
Speaker 2 (09:03):
It is not worth that.
Speaker 3 (09:05):
It's because far more people watch Super Bowl ads online
after the game, especially the ones that connected our trending.
So the same thing happens with debate clips. But the
final reason I'll offer as to why we may finally
have had a VP debate that mattered is yet again
due to the undecided voter. Analysis Info take CBS's own
(09:28):
panel after the debate. They had two undecided voters on
their panel. Guess what after the debate. Both said they
were voting for Trump, So anecdotal, But again, the anecdotal
panels from the Trump Hairs debate proved accurate in terms
of what we ended up seeing in the polls for
the month afterwards.
I'm a lotest answers to questions you won't here anywhere else.
Speaker 2 (00:07):
The Q and A of the day reaction from our
government to Brian mud show.
Speaker 3 (00:11):
I don't get that today's Q and A do the
VP debate matter? This has brought to you by Melissa
as check Mark Collections. Each day a feature a listener
question sent by one of these methods. You may email
me Brian Mudd at iHeartMedia dot com, hit me up
on social at Brian Mudradio. You may also use the
iHeartRadio talkback feature. Just go to w JNO or via
(00:32):
Patriot inside of the iHeartRadio app. Follow us once you
get there. Once you do, look for the little microphone button.
See it, tap it You mainla down a message right there,
maybe for a future Q and A. In today's note
is this Brian? I enjoy your show usually agree with
your analysis. However, I would like to challenge something you
said about the debate. You mentioned that this might be
the VP debate to make a difference in the race.
(00:54):
I mean, sure, just about anything as possible, I suppose. However,
how realistic is that train of thought? Really? We know
the debates haven't moved the needle in the past, and
these two are lesser knowns than most running mates. My
gut says ratings were low and that the only people
tuning into the debate were the passionate basis of both
(01:15):
candidates that aren't persuadable anyway. Okay, well, we do have
an answer actually to one of those now, and the
ratings are good. Ratings are getting nearly fifty million people,
two to forty nine million, So there is that. But
today's note is in response to this, to this comment
that I made in my takeaways yesterday, I said, this
just might have been the first vice presidential debate in
(01:36):
the American history that mattered. And that's for one very
specific reason. Everything that Donald Trump isn't that makes many
Americans in the middle uncomfortable with him.
Speaker 1 (01:45):
JD.
Speaker 3 (01:45):
Vans is, and last night he proved it. Young, precise, humble,
and obviously capable. Now I'm going to start by helping
assist you in making your point to counter my point.
I'm going to give you some more ammunition encounter. When
I what I said, there is only one VP debate
(02:05):
in American history that had higher ratings than one of
the presidential debates within the same cycle. There's actually one
VP debate that out did the presidential debates within a
given cycle, and Joel knows the answer.
Speaker 1 (02:24):
I have no idea. I'm sitting here. Maybe if you
gave me some hints, but we don't have that kind
of time.
Speaker 2 (02:31):
I wouldn't expect I wouldn't expect you to get it.
Speaker 3 (02:34):
But if you want to hint, this is the one
that made Tina Fey famous to the masses or infamous
and of anybody.
Speaker 1 (02:43):
Well that that makes it. That makes it a lot easier.
So what's like, was that that's a two thousand My gosh,
that was eight.
Speaker 2 (02:52):
There you go, you know, yeah, all right, that was good.
Speaker 3 (02:57):
Yeah, the two thousand and eight VP debate between Joe
Biden and Sarah Palin, which drew sixty nine point nine
million viewers, top to all three of the Obama McCain
debates that cycle.
Speaker 2 (03:12):
See Joel's surprised by it. It's a shock. People are
very excited about Joe Biden. It's what though.
Speaker 3 (03:19):
Obviously a lot of people are tuning in and see
how Palin would do. And uh not that I think
that Joe Biden probably remembers that debate any longer. But
even if he did, I don't think even he would
credit his debate performance as a key to Barack Obama's
win in that cycle. So to the point that the
listeners making today and that I've always said, which is,
(03:42):
you know, so much is made of running mates, and
it's almost always nonsense because they don't have much of
an impact. That would be the greatest example, because there's
no indication that there's any movement in the presidential race
following the most watched vice presidential ever. So if that
debate didn't move the needle, why would this one? Right? Okay,
(04:07):
so every election cycle I am quick to point out
how the hype leading up to the selection of a
running mate doesn't actually translate to results. Take for example,
my story entitled the lack of impact vice presidential picks
half on election outcomes. When I mentioned this, what was this?
I think just over a month ago I pointed this out?
Or no, it would have been back in July. Rather,
(04:27):
I'm sorry, this would have been in early July. I said,
In reality, there's no evidence that are running made in
either party has had any material impact on the outcome
of an election, and at least several generations. For those
who question that statement, answer this question, which presidential election
have you voted for president due to the running mate?
(04:48):
No running mate has had any evidence impact where it
matters most, the electoral college in recent political history. To
find the last presidential election cycle where there's evidence that
a VP pick impact of the outcome in a safe
you'd have to travel back to the nineteen sixty presidential
election when JFK's running mate Lindon Johnson won his home
stay of Texas.
Speaker 2 (05:08):
Okay.
Speaker 3 (05:08):
So, and as it pertains that nineteen sixty election, Johnson's
influence didn't have anything to do with the debate. That's
for another reason, Joel. It's like, oh my gosh, what
are you doing to me today?
Speaker 2 (05:22):
The first VP debate that took place? When was it?
Speaker 1 (05:27):
Oh my gosh, how long have are we talking about?
The first one that was televised?
Speaker 2 (05:31):
No, first one ever?
Speaker 1 (05:35):
Somewhere in the nineteen twenties.
Speaker 3 (05:37):
Okay, it actually was the coincided with being televised because
it didn't come until nineteen seventy six. We didn't have
a single VP debate in American history until nineteen seventy six.
It's been a relatively recent development in presidential politics. But
there's a key dynamic that's in play when we're talking
about debates, and it's something that I emphasized following the
(06:00):
Harris Trump debate when I said that for ninety six
percent of the voters, the debate was political theater, with
people just kind of rooting for their respective teams, that
the debate wasn't about you me, swifties, because we already
knew how we are going to vote. It was about
four percent because that's roughly the percentage of people who
went into that debate without a preferred presidential candidate. And
(06:21):
at that point, it's what happens with the four percenters
in swing states that'll decide this election.
Speaker 2 (06:26):
Okay.
Speaker 3 (06:26):
So it was in that immediate post debate analysis that
I highlighted how truly undecided voters, the four percenters as
I've called them, saw the debate. It was different than
the general public perception of it having been a big
win for Harris. The consensus and focus groups and in
the immediate pulling to emerge was that undecided voters aren't
(06:48):
undecided because they don't know what Trump's about. They're undecided
because they aren't comfortable with Harris and they were looking
for her to kind of make the case and see
if they could get comfortable with her Informationally, my thesis
from the previous debate held preceding the VP debate, Kamala
(07:09):
Harris gained zero point eight percent on average in national polls. However,
within swing states she held an electoral college advantage preceding
her debate with Trump, but Trump held the advantage before
the VP debate. Why because the very few undecided voters
who made up their minds in swing states did gravitate
towards Trump. Here's where this ties together with today's question.
(07:31):
Remember how four percent of the voters in the Real
Clear Politics average of polls were undecided before the presidential debate. Well,
that number was at three point four percent as of Tuesday.
Only zero point six percent made up their minds between
the presidential debate and the VP debate. Here are two
reasons why the VP debate may have mattered this time. One,
(07:52):
undecided voters are among the most likely actually to have
tuned into the debate. But also two, what happens after
debate these days has the potential to matter more than
what happened during the debate. A Pew Research Center study
has found that, aside from the ninety sixth election, at
least fifty percent of undecided voters have said debates are
helpful in making a decision about who to vote for. Historically,
(08:16):
that's been exclusive to the presidential debates. However, as opposed
to the usual three to four percent or three to
four presidential debate debates preceding the election, we only had
one this time between Harrison Trump. Even in COVID year
twenty twenty, you had two presidential debates. So what they
did is that inherently put more weight for the undecided
voters on the VP debate because there aren't other major
(08:39):
catalysts and major opportunities to see the candidates square off.
The other reason comes down to the Super Bowl commercial factor.
The reason why companies have most recently forked over seven
million dollars for thirty second Super Bowl adds is not
because that is value based. That is not something where
they're getting their money out of it with the people
(09:01):
who watch it live during the game.
Speaker 2 (09:03):
It is not worth that.
Speaker 3 (09:05):
It's because far more people watch Super Bowl ads online
after the game, especially the ones that connected our trending.
So the same thing happens with debate clips. But the
final reason I'll offer as to why we may finally
have had a VP debate that mattered is yet again
due to the undecided voter. Analysis Info take CBS's own
(09:28):
panel after the debate. They had two undecided voters on
their panel. Guess what after the debate. Both said they
were voting for Trump, So anecdotal, But again, the anecdotal
panels from the Trump Hairs debate proved accurate in terms
of what we ended up seeing in the polls for
the month afterwards.
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