October 3, 2025 • 7 mins
What the trends suggest generally is that red states are likely to get redder with blue states becoming bluer with Democrats who are currently the most motivated to relocate due to politics.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:04):
Your questions, Brian's answers. It's time for today's Q and
A of today. This is the Brian Mud Show.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
Today's QDA how many people are moving due to politics?
This is brought to you by Melissa and Ashes check
mark collections. Each day a HR listener question that has
sent by all of these methods. You may email me
Brian Mudd at iHeartMedia dot com, hand me up on
social at Brian Mud Radio. May also use the Iharadio
talk back feature. We'd love it. If you would love us,
(00:33):
just go into the app. Make us your number one
pre set. While you're in there, look for a little
microphone button. See it, Tap it. You may lay down
the message right there. Maybe top gar question for a
future Q and A. Today's said is this, Brian, You've
been vocal over the years about migration being key to
turning Florida into a reliably read state. When you were
talking about wealth migration, you reminded me of a question
(00:55):
I'd meant to ask you. Given the President Trump won
all the swing states, how migration factor into those outcomes?
Or did it also? Now that we're well removed from
the pandemic, are politics still a significant factor for relocations. Okay,
so you're right that political migrations have been on my
radar for a long time. I remember years ago, I
(01:18):
used to have to beat back fears by those on
the right that blue state relocations into Florida would turn
Florida into a blue state. I mean, I remember, going back,
like a decade ago, I'm tracking this stuff, and people
are like, don't come from New York, don't come from California.
I'm like, yeah, if you're a conservative, you want these
people coming here. It's far more we're right of center
(01:42):
than left, going way back. It's just that following the pandemic,
it became so evident that everybody was like, oh, yeah, okay,
but it really had been that way for a long time.
That's a big part of Florida's longer term trend. Now
specific to the topic of politically motivated to relocations. At
the peak of post pandemic relocations, as I cided in
(02:05):
my twenty twenty two story, are Democrats moving out of
Florida as Republicans move in? An analysis of relocations showed
fourteen back then, fourteen percent of all relocations were primarily
politically motivated, with larger percentages of people who were mindful
(02:26):
of politics, but it might not have been the reason
why they were relocating, so fourteen percent did it out
of politics at the peak. Incidentally, it was also in
that analysis that I first illustrated that Florida's rapid right
word move politically wasn't just due to Republican voters moving
into Florida in mass but also due to Democrats leading
(02:50):
our state in large numbers as well.
Speaker 1 (02:52):
That's how it happened so quickly.
Speaker 2 (02:54):
Now, Florida has been the tip of the spear for
politically motivated relocations post pandemic, but we're are from the
only state to be impacted by the phenomenon. There are
a couple of related studies released this year that illustrate
the impact of state's politics and factory into who's relocating.
(03:15):
The first a Lending Tree study, which showed up to
forty eight percent of those likely to relocate do weigh
political considerations into their decision. That's not how many are
doing it out of politics. I'll get to that in
a moment, but when people are moving, almost half of
people do and at least have that cross their mind
(03:35):
and might make even a decision about where they relocate
within a local community based upon that kind of factor. Notably,
Democrats are currently the most likely to factor politics into
a move, followed by Republicans and then independence. So in
other words, what we're effectively seeing this year, which not
(03:55):
so coincidentally is the first year of President Trump's second term,
is that Democrats are the most motivated to relocate out
of red states and in some cases out of the country.
On that note, the study found two percent of Democrats
that have been on the move this year have actually
left the country, and all told, eight percent relocating to
(04:19):
blue states. So and totally you had about ten percent
of Democrats that have moved have moved this year out
of politics, two percent that have said I'm out of
just altogether.
Speaker 1 (04:31):
So it's not just rosy, not just rosy two.
Speaker 2 (04:33):
Percent, and then the other eight percent relocating to blue states,
so I'm balanced. Politically motivated moves are considerably lower than
they were coming out of the pandemic. Remember, the all
in number was fourteen percent. This year, only four percent
of those moving are or half primarily done so due
(04:56):
to political considerations, so that is seventy one percent low
than three years ago. A separate study shows where those
people are going and also help shed light on the
migration impact on last year's election cycle. To answer the
second part the question, so a study entitled The Politics
of Moving twenty twenty twenty five edition found California, New York,
(05:19):
and Illinois have been the top destinations for Democrats seeking
blue states.
Speaker 1 (05:24):
Notably, all three states have been losing.
Speaker 2 (05:26):
Population with more outboundary locations than those who are moving in. However,
this makes perfect sense when you consider the political mindset
of those that are motivated to move, because it stands
to reason that if Republicans are fleeing and have fled California,
New York, and Illinois for political considerations, that motivated Democrats
(05:46):
would be inclined to move in. After all, just as
Florida and Texas are the poster children for red state politics,
those states are the poster children for blue state politics.
Specifically as it applies to the impact in swing states.
The study did account for those factors too, and what
the study found is that states voting for President Trump
in the twenty twenty four election saw thirty nine percent
(06:09):
more relocations during those four years than states that voted
for Kamala Harris. Notably, while adjusting for politics. Three states
that flipped did appear to have been meaningfully impacted by
political migration. Those three states Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, while
three additional states appeared to have been marginally impacted by
(06:30):
political migration, those being Nevada, Michigan in Wisconsin.
Speaker 1 (06:36):
Now, to some it might.
Speaker 2 (06:37):
Seem kind of odd that politically motivated movers on the right,
for example, may choose to relocate to states with Democrat
governors like Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania into Wisconsin. But those states
all have one thing in common and have had for
a while divided government where Republicans control at least one
(06:58):
branch of this legislature, mitigating the leftward bend of politics.
Speaker 1 (07:04):
Within those states.
Speaker 2 (07:05):
So let's say, for example, that you are just fed
up with New York, but you want to stay regionally close. Well, shoot,
Pennsylvania looks downright conservative. In comparison, did those fleeing Illinois
for Michigan in Wisconsin, and also those that are fleeing California,
Oregon in Washington making a move towards Arizona and Nevada.
(07:29):
Obviously not all those people want to move clear across
the country to come here. So to tie all the
research together. Political relocations were a significant factor for Florida
and many states after the pandemic, and they remain a factor.
Speaker 1 (07:43):
To a much lesser degree.
Speaker 2 (07:46):
But what the trends suggest generally is that a red
states are likely to get redder, with blue states becoming
bluer with Democrats who are currently the most motivated to
relocate due to politics,
Your questions, Brian's answers. It's time for today's Q and
A of today. This is the Brian Mud Show.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
Today's QDA how many people are moving due to politics?
This is brought to you by Melissa and Ashes check
mark collections. Each day a HR listener question that has
sent by all of these methods. You may email me
Brian Mudd at iHeartMedia dot com, hand me up on
social at Brian Mud Radio. May also use the Iharadio
talk back feature. We'd love it. If you would love us,
(00:33):
just go into the app. Make us your number one
pre set. While you're in there, look for a little
microphone button. See it, Tap it. You may lay down
the message right there. Maybe top gar question for a
future Q and A. Today's said is this, Brian, You've
been vocal over the years about migration being key to
turning Florida into a reliably read state. When you were
talking about wealth migration, you reminded me of a question
(00:55):
I'd meant to ask you. Given the President Trump won
all the swing states, how migration factor into those outcomes?
Or did it also? Now that we're well removed from
the pandemic, are politics still a significant factor for relocations. Okay,
so you're right that political migrations have been on my
radar for a long time. I remember years ago, I
(01:18):
used to have to beat back fears by those on
the right that blue state relocations into Florida would turn
Florida into a blue state. I mean, I remember, going back,
like a decade ago, I'm tracking this stuff, and people
are like, don't come from New York, don't come from California.
I'm like, yeah, if you're a conservative, you want these
people coming here. It's far more we're right of center
(01:42):
than left, going way back. It's just that following the pandemic,
it became so evident that everybody was like, oh, yeah, okay,
but it really had been that way for a long time.
That's a big part of Florida's longer term trend. Now
specific to the topic of politically motivated to relocations. At
the peak of post pandemic relocations, as I cided in
(02:05):
my twenty twenty two story, are Democrats moving out of
Florida as Republicans move in? An analysis of relocations showed
fourteen back then, fourteen percent of all relocations were primarily
politically motivated, with larger percentages of people who were mindful
(02:26):
of politics, but it might not have been the reason
why they were relocating, so fourteen percent did it out
of politics at the peak. Incidentally, it was also in
that analysis that I first illustrated that Florida's rapid right
word move politically wasn't just due to Republican voters moving
into Florida in mass but also due to Democrats leading
(02:50):
our state in large numbers as well.
Speaker 1 (02:52):
That's how it happened so quickly.
Speaker 2 (02:54):
Now, Florida has been the tip of the spear for
politically motivated relocations post pandemic, but we're are from the
only state to be impacted by the phenomenon. There are
a couple of related studies released this year that illustrate
the impact of state's politics and factory into who's relocating.
(03:15):
The first a Lending Tree study, which showed up to
forty eight percent of those likely to relocate do weigh
political considerations into their decision. That's not how many are
doing it out of politics. I'll get to that in
a moment, but when people are moving, almost half of
people do and at least have that cross their mind
(03:35):
and might make even a decision about where they relocate
within a local community based upon that kind of factor. Notably,
Democrats are currently the most likely to factor politics into
a move, followed by Republicans and then independence. So in
other words, what we're effectively seeing this year, which not
(03:55):
so coincidentally is the first year of President Trump's second term,
is that Democrats are the most motivated to relocate out
of red states and in some cases out of the country.
On that note, the study found two percent of Democrats
that have been on the move this year have actually
left the country, and all told, eight percent relocating to
(04:19):
blue states. So and totally you had about ten percent
of Democrats that have moved have moved this year out
of politics, two percent that have said I'm out of
just altogether.
Speaker 1 (04:31):
So it's not just rosy, not just rosy two.
Speaker 2 (04:33):
Percent, and then the other eight percent relocating to blue states,
so I'm balanced. Politically motivated moves are considerably lower than
they were coming out of the pandemic. Remember, the all
in number was fourteen percent. This year, only four percent
of those moving are or half primarily done so due
(04:56):
to political considerations, so that is seventy one percent low
than three years ago. A separate study shows where those
people are going and also help shed light on the
migration impact on last year's election cycle. To answer the
second part the question, so a study entitled The Politics
of Moving twenty twenty twenty five edition found California, New York,
(05:19):
and Illinois have been the top destinations for Democrats seeking
blue states.
Speaker 1 (05:24):
Notably, all three states have been losing.
Speaker 2 (05:26):
Population with more outboundary locations than those who are moving in. However,
this makes perfect sense when you consider the political mindset
of those that are motivated to move, because it stands
to reason that if Republicans are fleeing and have fled California,
New York, and Illinois for political considerations, that motivated Democrats
(05:46):
would be inclined to move in. After all, just as
Florida and Texas are the poster children for red state politics,
those states are the poster children for blue state politics.
Specifically as it applies to the impact in swing states.
The study did account for those factors too, and what
the study found is that states voting for President Trump
in the twenty twenty four election saw thirty nine percent
(06:09):
more relocations during those four years than states that voted
for Kamala Harris. Notably, while adjusting for politics. Three states
that flipped did appear to have been meaningfully impacted by
political migration. Those three states Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, while
three additional states appeared to have been marginally impacted by
(06:30):
political migration, those being Nevada, Michigan in Wisconsin.
Speaker 1 (06:36):
Now, to some it might.
Speaker 2 (06:37):
Seem kind of odd that politically motivated movers on the right,
for example, may choose to relocate to states with Democrat
governors like Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania into Wisconsin. But those states
all have one thing in common and have had for
a while divided government where Republicans control at least one
(06:58):
branch of this legislature, mitigating the leftward bend of politics.
Speaker 1 (07:04):
Within those states.
Speaker 2 (07:05):
So let's say, for example, that you are just fed
up with New York, but you want to stay regionally close. Well, shoot,
Pennsylvania looks downright conservative. In comparison, did those fleeing Illinois
for Michigan in Wisconsin, and also those that are fleeing California,
Oregon in Washington making a move towards Arizona and Nevada.
(07:29):
Obviously not all those people want to move clear across
the country to come here. So to tie all the
research together. Political relocations were a significant factor for Florida
and many states after the pandemic, and they remain a factor.
Speaker 1 (07:43):
To a much lesser degree.
Speaker 2 (07:46):
But what the trends suggest generally is that a red
states are likely to get redder, with blue states becoming
bluer with Democrats who are currently the most motivated to
relocate due to politics,
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