Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:04):
I have a question or topic you want to have addressed.
Just ask. This is the Brian Mud Show. Today's Q
and A property taxes and the impact of snowbirds to
Florida's economy. This is brought to you by Melissa Ashes
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(00:25):
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message right there, maybe for a future A Q and A.
Today's note is this. I've contacted Governor de Santis, congressmen
(00:47):
and senators with this thought. What are the odds they
will consider my idea? But thoughts regarding real estate taxes?
Rather than eliminate real estate taxes, why not raise the
exemption to five hundred thousand dollars. That'd be a large
enough window for most average homes to benefit. My concern
is that without a cap all the extremely wealthy part
time residents will become homesteaded. The multimillion dollar homes will
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be exempt. There is no way that increasing the sales
tax will fill the gap. The poor and middle class
will fill the brunt. Wealthy shop everywhere, not just their
home state. Middle class and poor shop at home. Tourists
will spend less. There will be less jobs. Okay. Today's
note from a listener in Laksa Hatchie provides an opportunity
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to address a few dynamics in play as the debate
about property tax relief continues to heat up in advance
of the start of January's legislative session. And I'm going
to address the questions in the order they were presented,
starting with contacting elected officials for the purpose of advocating
your preferred approach for property tax relief. So Governor DeSantis
certainly a key player, as he'll need to sign off
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on any proposal passed by the legislature in order for
it to make its way to next November's ballot for
voters to consider as a proposed constitution amendment, Either that
or the legislature would have to have margins sufficient to
override a potential Decanta's veto as to whether he'll be
receptive to your idea, realistically unlikely. He has been clear
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that he is opposed to homestead of property taxes as
a matter of principle, which, by the way, I agree
with him, the principle being do you ever own your
home if you have to pay government entities and taxing
authorities every year to be able to keep it? And
I've never seen DeSantis back down from a firm policy
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position that he's advanced. In fact, the political pact that
specifically backs him is named the Never Back Down Back.
So that's not to say that you shouldn't reach out
to the governor's office to advance your position. However, it
is extremely unlikely to have an impact on this issue. Now,
as for contacting members of Congress, that's not going to
prove helpful here. Property taxes are a state and local issues.
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So for that reason, you want to reach out to
your state representative in State eight, Senator with your thoughts.
Now about the thoughts proposed today. If a proposed property
tax exemption of five hundred thousand dollars were adopted, I
did the math on this, sixty one point one percent
of Florida's homesteaded properties would be completely covered by the exemption,
(03:17):
So you're right. You're right in saying that most were
the average home seaded properties if Floridians would be covered
with your plan. Now, beyond that, there's likely more to
the story than perhaps you may have accounted for. You've
cited a concern that if homestead of property taxes were eliminated,
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part time residents would move to have their properties home
seted to avoid property taxes. This is likely true. You
probably would have none some at least non Florida resident
homeowners seeking to become full time residents to be able
to apply for a home seat exemption. However, there are
two important dynamics to be mindful of. The first is
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that if someone is wealthy and can potentially become a
full time resident as opposed to a part time resident,
they're probably already doing it. You know, if you're taking
a look at the tax angle and you're a wealthy person,
probably already doing this. For most high income earners, the
ability to avoid state income tax elsewhere, in addition to
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taking advantage of the existing homestead benefits already in place,
that provides a tremendous incentive for those who are able
to become full time residents of Florida to go ahead
and do so. Therefore, the additional universe of part time
residents who could potentially become full time residents in our
state for tax purposes. Which, by the way, what do
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you have to do in order to be considered a
full time resident? You must live slash work here a
minimum of one hundred and eighty three days out of
the year. That's the six months plus a day. So
that's going to be a likely small group of people.
And that leads to the next related consideration. The impact
on the local economy would be meaningful if Florida converted
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more part time residents to full time residents. So let
me break this down. Last year, study was conducted of
snowbirds seeking to understand their habits in economic impact. Here's
what was found. Florida's population increases by what during season?
How many more people do you think we actually get here,
not counting tourists, just counting, you know, part time residents.
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The answer is five percent. Five percent. Now, obviously bigger
impacts in South Florida specifically, but stay wide, an average
of five percent more people. The average snowbird stays for
approximately four months. The average snowbird spends about six thousand
dollars per month not in bills. This is money that
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is spent within the state per month while here, in
excess of any bills six thousand. Approximately one point six
million jobs statewide are directly attributable to snowbirds, meaning that
if not for them, one point six million jobs that
exist today would not to The notion that wealthy part
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time residents are more likely to spend money elsewhere as
compared to locally is incorrect. I mean when they're not here, yeah,
but when they are here incorrect. Wealthy residents are actually
more likely to patronize local businesses and more frequently than
those of average means, and there are a lot of
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different ways this comes into play. The average Floriding, to
give you an idea, has about one thousand, four hundred
and thirty dollars per month in discretionary income after paying
the bills. Even if one hundred percent of that were
spent as opposed to having any savings, and even if
one hundred percent of that spending took place with businesses
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within Florida, it still wouldn't equal the economic impact that
the average snowbird who is here for only four months
has In fact, it would be almost seven thousand dollars
less per person. So, in other words, SnO birds. Part
time residents play a significantly outsized role in providing a
positive economic impact due to the typically large ability to
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engage with discretionary spending when they are here. So if
we were able to encourage more part time residents to
become full time residents, meaning that they would have to
live in our state for a minimum of two months
longer than they currently do, the added economic impact from
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that additional time spent and the spending that would take
place here would be massive in today's dollars. If the
average snowbird were to stay in our state for only
an extra two months, we would see sixty billion dollars
in direct additional spending within our state per year, with
an estimated eight hundred thousand ddditional jobs that would be created.
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What's more is that if property taxes were no longer
a burden, you'd probably have even more discretionary spending that
would be taking place. As for the concerns regarding revenue shortfalls,
Governor de Santis, his plan does not call for raising
sales tax rates to compensate for lost revenues, but instead
a focus on less government spending. As I've illustrated previously,
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this is entirely doable. Home seaded property taxes only account
for fifteen percent of local government tax revenue, and my
analysis at the time that the Palm Beach County DOJH
on it I found that adjusted for inflation and population changes,
Palm Beach Counties government spending had risen by greater than
fifteen percent over the prior five years, a figure that's
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higher than the homestead of property tax revenue. In other words,
to the question of how could they run the government
without home steaded property taxes, the answer would be exactly
the way they did in twenty nineteen. And DeSantis also
stated that the state could pick up any short falls
annually for rural counties with what he called budget dust,
meaning the price is so low it wouldn't even be
significant for the state to take care of it. Now,
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this isn't to say that your idea doesn't have merit.
That perhaps pick at a point like five hundred thousand
for an exemption where most residents would have relief, maybe
the way to go. I actually think your idea or
something similar to it is more likely to happen than
Governor DeSantis's, and that starts with the idea that DeSantis
Plan isn't among the eight initial proposals advanced by the
(09:28):
state legislature before January, So it's going to be interesting
to see what will be with the various property tax
proposals next year. Just I think having all this information
is probably helpful in the overall thought process.