September 8, 2025 • 9 mins
The Saharan Air Layer, which generally moves between 5,000 and 15,000 feet above sea level, contains an average of 50% less moisture. 50% less moisture doesn’t necessarily line up with 50% less tropical development, it can be more complicated than that, but it certainly reduces whatever else would be when present. The other potential benefit of the dust is the ability to ever-so-slightly impact ocean temperatures.
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
I have a question or topic you want to have addressed.
Just ask. This is the Brian Mud Show. Yeah, so
today's Q and A so heron does the impact on
weather and hurricane season. This is brought to you by
my listen ashes check mark collections. Each day a feature
listener question that is sent by one of these methods.
(00:23):
You may email me Brian Mud at iHeartMedia dot com.
Have the up on social at Brian Mud Radio. You
may also use the iHeartRadio talk back feature. We'd love it.
If you love us, just go into the IHLREADI app.
Make us your number one preset while you're in there
and look for a little microphone button. See it, tap it.
You may lay down the message right there, maybe for
a future Q and A. By the way, we'd love
(00:45):
it if you would make the Prime Mudshow podcast number
two preset while you're in there. Today's note is this? Hi, Brian,
really appreciate your continually superior, national quality daily show content
and presentation. Well, thank you. So Hearin does seems to
be a signific weather modifier as regards hurricane formation. But
you are the only one who mentions this routinely. Why okay,
(01:10):
so this question I thought was on point. I actually
got this just over a week ago, and I was
taking a look at items for today is Q and A.
I thought it made a lot of sense given what
we saw happen just over the weekend and what we're
seeing as where we've entered the absolute peak week of
(01:31):
hurricane season in addition to a benine first half of
hurricane season this year. The National Hurricane Center's map is
currently clear with the best possible message that we can
ever hope for during hurricane season that it's posted is
ays tropical cycle inactivity is not expected during the next
seven days. Happy day. So notably and on topic, not
(01:51):
only has the city flow of Saharan does factored heavily
into what hasn't developed into the tropics today, but it's
also been responsible for ending the threat of a tropical
disturbance crossing the mid Atlantic that at its peak was
given a ninety percent chance of development last week, And
so that implies that even the National Hurricane Center was
(02:11):
surprised by the impact of Saharan dust on the system.
By the way, if you follow the Hurricane Center's notes,
and this is my explanation, that might account for why
you don't hear a lot of people that are covering
the tropics to talk about Saharan dust routinely that the
(02:34):
National Hurricane Center they didn't note that it was Saharan
dust that took this thing out, but rather dry air.
And you will a lot of times hear this reporter, well,
there's a there's a large patch of dry air. Well,
that's the saharan does So it's not like you know,
just got you know, somebody broke out a hair dryer
in the middle of the Atlantic and it was me.
(02:56):
It was you heeded the hair dryer, yes, or you
still have that hair dryer and you wanted to do
something with it. Yeah, So anyway you might see that substituted,
and that might account for why you don't hear more meteorologists,
for example, talk about Saharan dust. But otherwise I cannot
(03:16):
specifically speak to why many meteorologists don't actively cover Saharan
dust or in hurricane season. However, the reason I do
daily in my Forida news updates is due to what
I uncovered in research a few years ago that I've
spoken to on a handful of occasions over the prior years,
and that includes most recently having discussed this at the
(03:37):
onset of this year's hurricane season. That story. The relationship
between Saharan dust and hurricane season, and as I've noted,
at the forefront of active hurricane predictions has been the
topic of climate change and specifically warmer temperatures and especially
warmer oceans resulting in increasingly active hurricane seasons. And it
(03:57):
is logical, it is a fact the warmer waters are
more conducive for tropical development, hence why hurricane season happens
when it does in the first place. But the big
old fly in the climate change equals ever more hurricanes
argument is that it's not analytical. And you might have
noticed we seemingly have had more Saharan dust clouds flying
(04:18):
over South Florida in recent years, now your imagination, we have.
I began researching this years ago because my wife, Ashley
has asthma and the increasing Saharan dust activity has meant
that she's had a change in hailers, how to use
them more often. It's been a big thing for her
and other people that have asthma, And so Michael on,
how much of this is you know, her condition getting worse,
(04:39):
How much of this is dust? And what I found out,
you know, is like wow, no, this is mostly dust.
And in fact, all throughout this year, since you know,
really around I want to say, April ish our dust
situation here, even during the wet days, well all the
ring we've been having and everything else. It'll often she
has an app that were rated on the scale of
(05:01):
one to ten the level of dust we have been
at peg dele like a ten right along because we've
had so much Saharan dust that's continuously been coming across
the Atlantic. So anyway, the catalyst for my focus on
Saharan dust during hurricane season began following a Harvard study
in twenty twenty entitled climate Change affects Saharan dust Storms
(05:24):
and the Lead A line set at all the studies
that a new groundbreaking study shows that the warming planet
will make dust storms more intense in the Mediterranean and
the Atlantic. Now, without diving into all the specs of
the study, at the bottom line was this the past
few years, we have seen a marked increase in Saharan
dust clouds, and Harvard's researchers offer extensive evidence that a
(05:45):
rising temperatures climate change is behind it. Now few things
act as a greater hurricane repellent than massive dust clouds
across the entire Atlantic, and so the Saharan ear layer,
which generally moves between five to fifteen thousand feet above
sea level, contains an average of fifty percent less moisture,
(06:06):
and so fifty percent less moisture doesn't necessarily line up
with fifty percent less tropical development. It could be more
complicated than that, but it does certainly reduce whatever else
would happen if it weren't there. And the other potential
benefit of the dust is the ability to ever so
slightly impact ocean temperatures, because what happens is the dust
reflects some sunlight and reflect small amounts of solar radiation,
(06:30):
and that can lead to slightly cooler ocean temperatures than
would otherwise be occurring if the dust were not present.
In last year, we had another meaningful development on the topic.
A new study entitled Leading Role of Saharan dust and
Tropical cyclone rainfall in the Atlantic Basin was published in
(06:51):
Science Advances and highlighted by Stanford University, and among these
studied conclusions was this said, surprisingly, the leading factor controlling
hurricane precipitation is not as traditionally thought sea surface temperature
or humidity in the atmosphere. Instead it's sahara dust. Well
that's big, right, that's big. And so basically, you know,
(07:13):
you put the Harvard study and then the Stanford study
together and it paints you a picture. And without getting
into the weeds of that research, the main takeaways were these,
Saharan dust has become the single biggest factor in whether
tropical formation takes place and how much rain is concentrated
in the storms to do form. So again, I can't
speak about the underlying factors that lead to others maybe
(07:36):
omitting saharan dust discussion during hurricane season, but given its
omnie importance, I believe it's essential to provide a complete
picture in two final notes on that. Saharan dust obviously
is not new. However, its impact is Historically regular Saharan
dust plumes have ended near the end of July or
(07:56):
early August. It's not a coincidence of the peak weeks
of hurricanes season historically are the final two of August
and the first two of September. It's a long been
that way because the one two punch of ocean tempts
being at peak. Hayes for the year, along with the
end of Saharan dust typically will just open the floodgates
for whatever is going to be during that year's hurricane season.
(08:18):
So what's been different about this year's season thus far
in comparison to even recent years, is that, in addition
to Saharan dust still being president in early September, the
plumes have also been consistently making their way into the
Gulf of America. And as you're likely well aware, while
we've been fortunate not to be faced with direct landfalls
on the Atlantic coast of Florida for many years now,
(08:38):
the golf man they've been ground zero for everything, right,
So the dust continuing into the golf this year up
till now at least has proven to be really key
from having the golf become active like it had been
even in the past years where we had the Saharan
dust making it through the Atlantic but not to the golf.
So here you go. It's always two sites stories, one
(09:00):
side of facts. Those are the facts, and hopefully that's
helpful
I have a question or topic you want to have addressed.
Just ask. This is the Brian Mud Show. Yeah, so
today's Q and A so heron does the impact on
weather and hurricane season. This is brought to you by
my listen ashes check mark collections. Each day a feature
listener question that is sent by one of these methods.
(00:23):
You may email me Brian Mud at iHeartMedia dot com.
Have the up on social at Brian Mud Radio. You
may also use the iHeartRadio talk back feature. We'd love it.
If you love us, just go into the IHLREADI app.
Make us your number one preset while you're in there
and look for a little microphone button. See it, tap it.
You may lay down the message right there, maybe for
a future Q and A. By the way, we'd love
(00:45):
it if you would make the Prime Mudshow podcast number
two preset while you're in there. Today's note is this? Hi, Brian,
really appreciate your continually superior, national quality daily show content
and presentation. Well, thank you. So Hearin does seems to
be a signific weather modifier as regards hurricane formation. But
you are the only one who mentions this routinely. Why okay,
(01:10):
so this question I thought was on point. I actually
got this just over a week ago, and I was
taking a look at items for today is Q and A.
I thought it made a lot of sense given what
we saw happen just over the weekend and what we're
seeing as where we've entered the absolute peak week of
(01:31):
hurricane season in addition to a benine first half of
hurricane season this year. The National Hurricane Center's map is
currently clear with the best possible message that we can
ever hope for during hurricane season that it's posted is
ays tropical cycle inactivity is not expected during the next
seven days. Happy day. So notably and on topic, not
(01:51):
only has the city flow of Saharan does factored heavily
into what hasn't developed into the tropics today, but it's
also been responsible for ending the threat of a tropical
disturbance crossing the mid Atlantic that at its peak was
given a ninety percent chance of development last week, And
so that implies that even the National Hurricane Center was
(02:11):
surprised by the impact of Saharan dust on the system.
By the way, if you follow the Hurricane Center's notes,
and this is my explanation, that might account for why
you don't hear a lot of people that are covering
the tropics to talk about Saharan dust routinely that the
(02:34):
National Hurricane Center they didn't note that it was Saharan
dust that took this thing out, but rather dry air.
And you will a lot of times hear this reporter, well,
there's a there's a large patch of dry air. Well,
that's the saharan does So it's not like you know,
just got you know, somebody broke out a hair dryer
in the middle of the Atlantic and it was me.
(02:56):
It was you heeded the hair dryer, yes, or you
still have that hair dryer and you wanted to do
something with it. Yeah, So anyway you might see that substituted,
and that might account for why you don't hear more meteorologists,
for example, talk about Saharan dust. But otherwise I cannot
(03:16):
specifically speak to why many meteorologists don't actively cover Saharan
dust or in hurricane season. However, the reason I do
daily in my Forida news updates is due to what
I uncovered in research a few years ago that I've
spoken to on a handful of occasions over the prior years,
and that includes most recently having discussed this at the
(03:37):
onset of this year's hurricane season. That story. The relationship
between Saharan dust and hurricane season, and as I've noted,
at the forefront of active hurricane predictions has been the
topic of climate change and specifically warmer temperatures and especially
warmer oceans resulting in increasingly active hurricane seasons. And it
(03:57):
is logical, it is a fact the warmer waters are
more conducive for tropical development, hence why hurricane season happens
when it does in the first place. But the big
old fly in the climate change equals ever more hurricanes
argument is that it's not analytical. And you might have
noticed we seemingly have had more Saharan dust clouds flying
(04:18):
over South Florida in recent years, now your imagination, we have.
I began researching this years ago because my wife, Ashley
has asthma and the increasing Saharan dust activity has meant
that she's had a change in hailers, how to use
them more often. It's been a big thing for her
and other people that have asthma, And so Michael on,
how much of this is you know, her condition getting worse,
(04:39):
How much of this is dust? And what I found out,
you know, is like wow, no, this is mostly dust.
And in fact, all throughout this year, since you know,
really around I want to say, April ish our dust
situation here, even during the wet days, well all the
ring we've been having and everything else. It'll often she
has an app that were rated on the scale of
(05:01):
one to ten the level of dust we have been
at peg dele like a ten right along because we've
had so much Saharan dust that's continuously been coming across
the Atlantic. So anyway, the catalyst for my focus on
Saharan dust during hurricane season began following a Harvard study
in twenty twenty entitled climate Change affects Saharan dust Storms
(05:24):
and the Lead A line set at all the studies
that a new groundbreaking study shows that the warming planet
will make dust storms more intense in the Mediterranean and
the Atlantic. Now, without diving into all the specs of
the study, at the bottom line was this the past
few years, we have seen a marked increase in Saharan
dust clouds, and Harvard's researchers offer extensive evidence that a
(05:45):
rising temperatures climate change is behind it. Now few things
act as a greater hurricane repellent than massive dust clouds
across the entire Atlantic, and so the Saharan ear layer,
which generally moves between five to fifteen thousand feet above
sea level, contains an average of fifty percent less moisture,
(06:06):
and so fifty percent less moisture doesn't necessarily line up
with fifty percent less tropical development. It could be more
complicated than that, but it does certainly reduce whatever else
would happen if it weren't there. And the other potential
benefit of the dust is the ability to ever so
slightly impact ocean temperatures, because what happens is the dust
reflects some sunlight and reflect small amounts of solar radiation,
(06:30):
and that can lead to slightly cooler ocean temperatures than
would otherwise be occurring if the dust were not present.
In last year, we had another meaningful development on the topic.
A new study entitled Leading Role of Saharan dust and
Tropical cyclone rainfall in the Atlantic Basin was published in
(06:51):
Science Advances and highlighted by Stanford University, and among these
studied conclusions was this said, surprisingly, the leading factor controlling
hurricane precipitation is not as traditionally thought sea surface temperature
or humidity in the atmosphere. Instead it's sahara dust. Well
that's big, right, that's big. And so basically, you know,
(07:13):
you put the Harvard study and then the Stanford study
together and it paints you a picture. And without getting
into the weeds of that research, the main takeaways were these,
Saharan dust has become the single biggest factor in whether
tropical formation takes place and how much rain is concentrated
in the storms to do form. So again, I can't
speak about the underlying factors that lead to others maybe
(07:36):
omitting saharan dust discussion during hurricane season, but given its
omnie importance, I believe it's essential to provide a complete
picture in two final notes on that. Saharan dust obviously
is not new. However, its impact is Historically regular Saharan
dust plumes have ended near the end of July or
(07:56):
early August. It's not a coincidence of the peak weeks
of hurricanes season historically are the final two of August
and the first two of September. It's a long been
that way because the one two punch of ocean tempts
being at peak. Hayes for the year, along with the
end of Saharan dust typically will just open the floodgates
for whatever is going to be during that year's hurricane season.
(08:18):
So what's been different about this year's season thus far
in comparison to even recent years, is that, in addition
to Saharan dust still being president in early September, the
plumes have also been consistently making their way into the
Gulf of America. And as you're likely well aware, while
we've been fortunate not to be faced with direct landfalls
on the Atlantic coast of Florida for many years now,
(08:38):
the golf man they've been ground zero for everything, right,
So the dust continuing into the golf this year up
till now at least has proven to be really key
from having the golf become active like it had been
even in the past years where we had the Saharan
dust making it through the Atlantic but not to the golf.
So here you go. It's always two sites stories, one
(09:00):
side of facts. Those are the facts, and hopefully that's
helpful
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