Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:03):
Have a question or topic you want to have addressed,
just ask. This is the Brian mud Show.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
Yeah, today's que and as we take a look at
the mom domny effect, how many Florida relocations from New
York City would Mom Donnie bring? This brought to you
as always by listen ashes check Mark collections each day
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(00:32):
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Speaker 2 (00:43):
Make w j NO or via Patriot your number one
preset Briyan Mudshow Podcast number two preset Happy Day. You'll
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see it, tap it. You may lay down a message
right there, maybe for a future q n A. Today's
note this, Brian. Many have suggested that there could be
a post COVID like surge of New Yorkers out of
the city should Mom Donnie win the mayoral race as
(01:06):
appears likely. Do you have an indication of how many
people would leave NYC for Florida should he win? I
understand the logic behind those who suggest that there will
be another sudden surge. However, what most who would leave
for political reasons already have done so probably why Mom
Donnie will win.
Speaker 1 (01:25):
Now that's a good point. I mean, you take a
look at this.
Speaker 2 (01:29):
New York City is the city that has recently, twenty
four years ago had Rudy Giuliani's mayor. So obviously that
base of voters not the base that's getting ready to
elect Mam Donnie mayor. Right, So there has been a
great deal of change. And yeah, the potential for a
self identified socialist basically a comming to become mayor of
(01:53):
New York City is because so many more conservatively minded
people have left the city. On this particular Andrew Cuama,
you had the last debate last night, the mayoral debate
in New York City. Andrew Cuomo, the worst COVID governor
there was, who now looks like the viable alternative in
New York City. To give you an idea of just
(02:14):
how bad the options are the side of Sleewa, who
has no choice of winning.
Speaker 1 (02:20):
He had this to say, and he was making a
lot of sense.
Speaker 3 (02:22):
New York is competing with Texas, with Florida, South Carolina,
and people will shop economics and if the New York
City is too expensive, crime is a problem, quality of
life is a problem. You lose the competition.
Speaker 2 (02:42):
He's right about that, And he would know because he
was governor during COVID with all those policies that led
to the mass migration out of his state.
Speaker 1 (02:50):
You may say he lost to the competition.
Speaker 2 (02:53):
Yes, so, but it sounds like baby he learned from
his failures.
Speaker 1 (02:59):
I on it. But anyway, he's right about that.
Speaker 2 (03:02):
And as we take a look at this this dynamic,
as has been well documented, a mass migration of Florida
has been happening for years, accelerated by New York City's
draconian COVID era policies, making it reasonable to wonder how
many New Yorkers are really inclined to make a political
move at this point. So let's start with what we
know based on what the migration trends have been since
(03:24):
twenty twenty migration from New York to Florida, it's been
eighty one percent higher than the years preceding the pandemic.
Speaker 1 (03:33):
Okay, so the whole.
Speaker 2 (03:34):
COVID effect over the past five years compared to the
prior five years, eighty one percent increase in New Yorkers
coming to our state. Florida has been the top state
New Yorkers have relocated to this decade. However, just over
half fifty one percent have remained within the region. So
(03:55):
the main thing that happens is not somebody goes from
New York to Florida. If they're going to re located
to another state. That is the case, but you're still
talking about much more percentages.
Speaker 1 (04:05):
Most do stay in the vicinity.
Speaker 2 (04:08):
That's an important dynamic that could soon come into place
should Mom Donnie win. Here's the next consideration. For those
fleeing New York State to Florida. Forty percent have been
from New York City specifically. In total, there are approximately
one hundred and forty five thousand residents of New York
City that have relocated to Florida this decade. Twenty one
(04:32):
percent of New York City residents who've relocated outside of
the city since twenty twenty have relocated to Florida, and
so that provides the backdrop for attempting to infer what
might come next should Zoron Mamdanni win. The mayoral race
dubbed the mam donni effect. His primary win earlier this
(04:54):
year has already spurred a number of relocations and inquiries
that may be acted upon shitty win. There was a
thirty three percent surge in inquiries by New York City
residents into South Florida real estate in the month following
his primary win, and an even bigger surge in surrounding communities.
The single biggest increase in inquiries has actually been, though
(05:18):
not down here, where do you think it's been? Where
do you think it's been? New York suburb Westchester County
that has seen the sharpest upticking interest that's been attributed
to Mom Donnie. And this makes a lot of sense
because if you were not motivated to move out of
(05:40):
New York City due to politics previously, but you could
potentially be now. There's a good chance that a couple
of factors apply here. One were considerations and to who
These people largely are left leaning, not commies, right left leaning,
(06:02):
high end gum so the bridge too far people are
those that are probably left of centered politically, but also
stand a lot to lose with a lot of money online.
To the bottom line is that there just are not
that many right leaning voters in New York City left.
New York City's population is already seven hundred thousand fewer
(06:24):
people today compared to five years ago, and the overwhelming
people left are leftist. In last year's presidential election, if
you want to take a look at the view of
the possible here, like how many people possibly could be
motivated by politics to want to come to a place
like Florida. President Trump one New York City one New
(06:45):
York City. President Trump won seven hundred and eighty six
thousand votes in New York City. Okay, so that's how
many people left in the city with Trump. So that
would kind of be like your sealing of the remaining
political relocations for conservative politics to how many will actually
(07:06):
relocate should this become a reality, Well, based on levels
of expressed interest to date, it appears likely that we
would see in the approximant fifty percent increase in relocations
above the current trend, leading to an estimated forty thousand
additional relocations from New York City to Florida within the
first year. In other words, the mom Donnie effect appears
(07:28):
to be a real phenomenon, but not quite to the
level of COVID.
Speaker 1 (07:32):
Related migration trends.
Speaker 2 (07:33):
Remember that was eighty one percent, So we're looking at
something that would be between where we are now in COVID.
One of the big reasons for this is the wild
card in this conversation, and this is something that could
bring it to maybe a COVID level kind of thing.
Business considerations. One of the reasons New York City relocations
(07:55):
to South Florida were as rapid and as extreme as
they were after the pandemic due to the relocation of
many top Wall Street firms. Other businesses too, but especially
them in South Florida, hence the establishment of what became
known as Wall Street South. Like any good socialists, mom,
Donnie has made no bones about having problems with capitalism.
Speaker 1 (08:16):
That is a quote from him.
Speaker 2 (08:17):
So it's kind of a tough putt to have the
epicenter of capitalism in the world hugged in a city
that's governed by a politician who doesn't believe in it.
So there are several accounts of Wall Street firms in
remaining New York City billionaires threatening relocation. Right now, I'll
allow this quote from Pershing Square founder and CEO Bill Ackman.
He said, if Ziron Mandanni wins. Several billionaires told me
(08:40):
they'll leave New York City or at the very least
spend more time outside of it to avoid city taxes.
It only takes a handful of successful people to leave
to decimate the city's tax base. But here's the kicker.
Acman said he's staying even if mom Donnie wins. So
that's the wild card. How many would actually leave and
take their businesses with them. Have the firms that we're
(09:02):
serious about leaving New York City already done it, or
is there another business exodus in the making. If there is,
that's where you could get to that kind of COVID
level size relocation